CAIRO (AP) ? Egypt's state news agency says the military has drawn up a plan to suspend the Islamist-backed constitution, dissolve the Islamist-dominated legislature, and set up an interim administration if President Mohammed Morsi fails to reach a solution with his opponents.
The agency's report Tuesday provides the first details of the road map the military has said it will implement if a deadline it set for Wednesday runs out with no solution. A retired army general with close ties to the military confirmed the report. Hossam Sweilam said a panel of experts would draft a new constitution and the interim administration would be a presidential council led by the Supreme Constitutional Court's chief justice and including the defense minister, representatives of political parties, youth groups, Al-Azhar Mosque and the Coptic Church. 軍の計画では専門家パネルが新憲法草案を起草し、暫定政権は最高憲法裁判所の主任 判事、防衛長官、政党の代表、若者代表、Al-Azharモスクの代表、コプト派キリスト 教代表などを含む大統領評議会に主導される。
今日のFTに掲載のマーチンウルフ(論説主幹)の評論 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ae5d1d8c-e26f-11e2-87ec-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2XoCRXxCy Risks of a hard landing for China Martin WolfBy Martin Wolf July 2, 2013 7:12 pm Beijing might need to do what its leaders neither want nor expect 中国のハードランディングのリスク FT マーチン・ウルフ
The new Chinese government is, in effect, now engaged in the task of redesigning the jumbo jet, as it comes into land, with half of the engines working poorly. The market is most unlikely to deliver such a huge change smoothly. The sole reason I find to trust the landing will work as hoped is that the authorities have handled so many arduous tasks in the past. But it is going to be very tricky. In order to sustain demand, the government might find itself compelled to do some things ? run very large fiscal deficits, for example, ? that its new leaders neither want nor now expect. At least, forewarned is forearmed.
THE EGYPTIAN army has been deployed after automatic gunfire was reported around Cairo University, killing and wounding many of the massive crowd nearby. Clashes had been growing around the university in the capital's Giza district for several days. Tours to the nearby popular Pyramids and Great Sphynx have all but halted. According to the latest health ministry statements, 16 people have been killed and at least 200 injured. The gun battle is reportedly ongoing. ・・・・ The Egyptian Armed Forces have released a statement saying they will fight against "terrorists and extremists." "The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces that we will fight those that frighten or threaten the Egyptian people, and swear by Allah that Naftda Egypt and its people, our blood against every terrorist or extremist or ignorant," the Facebook statement reads.
ttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/03/us-egypt-protests-finalhours-idUSBRE96202920130703 (Reuters) - Egypt's high command said on Wednesday the army was ready to die to defend Egypt's people against terrorists and fools, in a response to Islamist President Mohamed Mursi that was headlined "The Final Hours". エジプト軍最高司令官:「我々はエジプト国民をテロリストや馬鹿者から守るために 死をもいとはない」大統領の最後通告拒否に関してフェイスブックにカキコ ロイター
The post on the official Facebook page of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), headed by armed forces chief General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, said: "We swear to God that we will sacrifice even our blood for Egypt and its people, to defend them against any terrorist, radical or fool." エジプト軍最高評議会のAbdel Fattah al-Sisi将軍は「我々は神に誓ってエジプトと、 その国民を守るために我等の血を犠牲にすることを厭わない。テロリストや過激派や 馬鹿者たちから守る」と書いている
Issued three hours after Mursi appeared on television to reject an ultimatum from Sisi that he share power with his opponents or face a military solution by 10:00 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT), a military source said the statement made clear that the armed forces would not abandon their demands. これらの言葉は大統領がTV演説で軍の最後通告を拒否した後のもので、軍が政府への 要求を諦めていないことの表明という。
The Gulf state of Kuwait on Wednesday urged its citizens in Egypt to leave "at the earliest" and warned against travel to the country after President Mohamed Morsi rejected an ultimatum by the army, amid mass protests and deadly clashes. エジプト大統領と軍部の対立が高まる中、クエート政府はエジプト国内のクエート 国民に「出来る限り早く」出国するようにと勧告した。暴力的衝突の恐れがあるという
"All Kuwaitis present in Egypt must leave at the earliest due to the developments and events in various parts of the country," the official KUNA news agency cited ambassador Rasheed al-Hamad as saying. He also called on Kuwaitis to delay trips to Egypt due to the "unstable situation". Kuwait becomes the first Arab country to issue a travel warning to Egypt, where supporters and opponents of embattled Morsi clashed during the night in the capital Cairo, leaving more than 20 people dead. クエートはアラブ諸国の中でエジプトへの旅行制限を行った最初の国と成った。エジプト への旅行は延期するように勧告している。
Thousands of Kuwaiti students are studying at Egyptian universities while tens of thousands of Kuwaiti tourists normally visit Egypt every year. エジプト国内には数千人のクエート籍大学生があり、旅行者も年間数千人に達する。
イスラム原理主義と言われるものは、様々のものを含んでいるので定義は難しく、現実 の諸派の宗旨は一様ではありません。サウジアラビアのワッハーブ派(Wahhabism)など は宗教的保守派というべきでしょうけれど、エジプトの(ムスリム同胞団の一部とか Sayyid Qutbとか)なら政治的な側面が強いわけです。
A military source has denied media reports about the details of a proposed roadmap for Egypt at the end of the 48-hour deadline on Wednesday afternoon. The source told Reuters on Wednesday that the military’s next step would include inviting well-known public figures, politicians and economic experts to tailor a roadmap for Egypt after Morsi leaves. He did not clarify any further what other steps may be taken.(ry
写真のキャプション:An Egyptian anti-President Mohammed Morsi protester waves a national flag in front of a banner criticizing U.S. President Barack Obama and Mohammed Morsi in Tahrir Square, the focal point of Egyptian uprising, in Cairo Sunday, June 30, 2013. (Amr Nabil/AP) Tahrir広場の抗議行動ではMorsi大統領の支援者としてオバマ大統領を非難
The June ADP employment survey results are out. Private U.S. companies added 188,000 jobs in June, up from 134,000 in May. This was better than the 150,000 economists were looking for. Some economists believe this is a useful predictor of the official jobs report, which will be published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
"Ignore ADP at your own peril," said Deutsche Bank's Joe LaVorgna. "The reliability of the ADP measure may have improved since Moody’s replaced Macroeconomic Advisers as the compiler of the data late last year, but that still leaves plenty of room for error," said High Frequency Economics' Jim O'Sullivan.
What appears to be a military coup in Egypt puts the Obama administration in an awkward position. The state department is clear that Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi has not done enough to meet the concerns of his people, and that democracy is not just about being elected but about responding to their voices. They say he did not do this in last night's speech. 国務省はMohammed Morsi大統領の至らなさを認識していて、国民各派の声に耳を傾け ることが不十分であったとしている。民主主義体制は選挙で選ばれた指導者であるこ とだけでは不十分で国民の要請に答える必要があるが、昨夜の演説はこの意味で不十 分であったという。
President Obama's administration never wants to be seen as hectoring or picking rulers in the Arab world. But the dilemma is an old one - a choice between a democratically elected leader who has ideas they don't like, or the military who are not elected but may be more pro-Western. オバマ政権は民主的に選挙で選ばれた、しかしそのイデオロギーを好ましく思わない ムスリム同胞団の指導者と、選挙で選ばれたわけではないが西欧よりである軍の指導 者のどちらかを選択するというふうに見られることを望まないが
While the US claims it is not making choices, it could pull the plug on funding if it really didn't like what was happening. アメリカはどちらかの側を支持しないとは言うものの、真にクーデターの発生を望ま しくないと思うならエジプト軍への経済的支援(年間13億ドル規模)を止めることも 出来る(けれど、そういう事はしていない)
Just two months after his election last year, Egypt’s president Mohamed Morsi was riding high. The Islamist politician once derided as a “spare tyre” had helped broker a peace deal between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, taken bold trips to China and Iran, and managed to outmanoeuvre the country’s long-dominant generals to push the military out of politics. His approval rating reached 60 per cent. 一時期はスペアタイアと渾名されたMorsiは大統領選挙で選ばれ、支持率は60%にも 達して、イスラエルとハマスの和平交渉に口出しし、中国とイランを訪問し、エジ プトの長い歴史で初めて軍部を政治の世界から追い出したのだが (中略) Huge forces and interests were aligned against him, and the moribund economy was in many ways beyond his control. 巨大な勢力や利益集団が大統領に反対の側にたち、瀕死のエジプト経済は彼のコント ロールを超えるものであった
“In the end, if you look at the whole picture, he was doomed from the beginning,” said Stephane Lacroix, an expert on political Islam and Egypt at the Paris Institute of Political Science, or Sciences-Po. パリに本拠を置く政治科学研究所のエジプト専門家であるStephane Lacroixは「結局の ところ、全体像を見るなら、Morsi大統領は最初から失敗が予想されていた」という
“Structurally there was so much resistance to him from the security apparatus, the judiciary, the media, he would have needed to have been extremely bright and consensual to appease the various forces,” he said. “But he did exactly the contrary. He said, ‘I’m the president and I can do what I want.’ He didn’t realise he was in a very weak position.” 「構造的に見て彼の前には巨大な抵抗勢力があった。安全保障(軍)勢力、司法、メディア それらに対抗して国を運営するには、各種勢力のコンセンサスを形成する賢明さが必要で あったが、彼がやったことは、『私は大統領だから思うことをなんでも実行できる』と言 って、自分の立場が如何に弱いものかを解っていなかった」
One analyst described Mr Morsi’s rule as a “ballotocracy” ? the view that winning an election gives a president the right to dictate. あるアナリストは彼のやり方を「投票至上主義」と呼んだ。選挙で選ばれたなら大統領は 独裁の権利を与えられる、というものである。(後略)
ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324260204578583222415578026.html?mod=WSJAsia_hpp_LEFTTopStories ASIA MARKETS July 3, 2013, 11:52 a.m. ET Investors Pull Back From China Assets By DANIEL INMAN Investors are bailing out of China's markets as fears grow over the slowing economy and Beijing discourages ideas that it might try to juice it back up. 投資家が中国の金融資産から手を引き始めている 中国経済の成長鈍化と、中国政府の経済振興策を進めない姿勢から、投資家が中国 市場から逃げつつある WSJ
Global fund managers have yanked money out of Chinese stocks for sixteen of the last 18 weeks, including a net $834 million during a five-day period ending June 5. That was the largest outflow since January 2008, when the financial crisis was getting underway, according to data provider EPFR. 過去18週間のうちの16週でグローバル投資家は中国株式を売り越しており、6月5日 の週にはネットで$834Mの売り越しである。これは2008年以降の最大の資本流失で ある。
Investors are consistently selling, and the currency has stopped rising since reaching a record high last month. Derivatives traded in Hong Kong, where the currency moves freely, indicate the yuan will fall 2.8% over the next 12 months. This "is a vote of no confidence to China's growth outlook," said Wee-Khoon Chong, senior interest-rate strategist at Societe Generale GLE.FR -2.03% in Hong Kong.
There are increasing signs that domestic investors are bailing out of the market, too. Substantial shareholders, such as senior management and individuals with stakes larger than 5%, are offloading shares they own. In May, selling by these investors of shares in China's small and growth- enterprise stock indexes reached the highest level in percentage terms since the global financial crisis, according to research by UBS UBSN.VX -0.93% . (後略)
WASHINGTON -- A U.S. official says the State Department is ordering nonessential U.S. diplomats and the families of all American Embassy personnel to leave Egypt after the Egyptian military removed Morsi and in anticipation of potential violence. 暴力的衝突の発生の恐れがあり、必要不可欠以外の大使館人員と家族に帰国を命じた
Security forces raided the Cairo offices of Al Jazeera's Egyptian television channel on Wednesday and detailed at least five staff, hours after the army toppled Islamist President Mohamed Mursi, a journalist at the station said. アルジャジーラによれば警備当局がカイロのアルジャジーラTVエジプト局を強制捜査し 少なくとも5人が拘束された
The station was prevented from broadcasting from a pro-Mursi rally and its crew there was also detained, he said. アルジャジーラによれば、警備当局はMursi(元)大統領の支持者の行進などを放送した スタッフを拘束し、その放送を止めさせた
WASHINGTON (AP) - President Barack Obama says he's ordered his administration to review U.S. foreign aid to Egypt after the nation's military ousted Islamist President Mohammed Morsi. Obama says he's "deeply concerned" by the military's move Wednesday to topple Morsi and suspend Egypt's constitution. But he's not calling the move a coup. By law, the U.S. must suspend aid to any nation whose elected leader is ousted in a military coup. アメリカは国内法で、選挙で選ばれた指導者が軍事クーデターで追放された国ヘの 政府間援助を禁止している。オバマ大統領はエジプトの事態に「強い関心」を表明 したが、その動きを「クーデター」とは呼んでいない
ttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/07/03/mapping_cairo_in_crisis Mapping Cairo in Crisis A real-time map of the hot spots in Egypt's dramatic showdown between the military, Muslim Brotherhood, and protesters in the streets. BY J. DANA STUSTER | JULY 3, 2013 危機にあるカイロのリアルタイム・マップ エジプト軍とムスリム同胞団のフラッシュポイントなどの早見のぐぐるマップ フォーリン・ポリシー謹製
Egypt’s military coup d’etat has been bloodless for now. President Mohamed Morsi was taken from his palace to a military barracks. Muslim Brotherhood officials were detained and issued with travel bans. エジプトのクーデターは、今のところは無血である。Morsi(元)大統領は官邸から軍の兵舎 に移されている。ムスリム同胞団の幹部は拘束され旅行禁止令が出されている
Army tanks, APCs and troops, including commandos, are deployed at key facilities in the capital and positioned so as to seal off and separate rival groups of demonstrators. Muslim Brotherhood followers continue to stream into the city to join the pro-Morsi rally around Cairo University. Violence clashes have so far been averted. 軍の戦車と装甲車と兵士が指揮官とともに首都の重要地点に配され対立する政治グループの 衝突やデモを抑制している。ムスリム同胞団の支持者が首都に流入していてカイロ大学周辺 でMorsi支持の行進に参加している。暴力的な衝突は、これまでのところ回避されている。
Sources in Cairo report that top Muslim Brotherhood officials will be tried for “crimes” committed during their year in office. Prime Minister Hisham Kandil and the remaining ministers have left their offices with their possessions. カイロのソースによればムスリム同胞団のトップの高官らは在任中の「犯罪」について起 訴されるだろうという。Hisham Kandil首相はじめ残っていた閣僚はオフィスを去っている
Defense minister Gen. El-Sisi spent the afternoon conferring with leading politicians and clerics. Muslim Brotherhood leaders refused to attend. 国防相の El-Sisi将軍は午後に主要な政治家や宗教指導者らと会合を持ったがムスリム同 胞団は参加を拒否している
Tuesday night, Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi rejected the Defense Minister‘s demand that he quit to avert a bloodbath. He said he stood by his “constitutional dignity and demanded the army’s withdrawal of its ultimatum. Sixteen people were killed in three separate violent clashes after the speech between supporters and opponents of the Islamist president. Another huge anti- government took place in Alexandria as well as other Egyptian cities. 火曜日にMorsi大統領は軍の通告を拒否し軍の撤退を求めていた。この後、3件の衝突事件で 16人が死亡している。アレキサンドリア他の都市で大規模な反政府抗議行動が起こっている。
Military circles indicated that to defuse the crisis the army would force the regime to transfer ruling authority to an interim council made up of citizens and technocrats and entrusted with drafting a new constitution and preparing early elections for president. 軍は危機にあたり政権を民間人とテクノクラートの暫定評議会のもと暫定政権に移して、新 憲法を起草し早期の大統領選挙を目指すという
Those sources did not disclose what would happen to Morsi and whether he would stay on in the meantime as a figurehead president without executive powers. President Morsi and the Muslim Brothers are hardly likely to lie down for this roadmap out of the crisis, because it would mean relinquishing power after just one year, at the end of decades of being pushed to the fringes of Egypt’s political scene. 軍はMorsi大統領やムスリム同胞団の今後の扱いについて触れていない。彼らは一度手にした 政権を手放すことに同意することは無さそうで、それというのも彼らは数十年間に渡ってエ ジプト政治から排除され、政権について1年を経たのみであるから。
But there is not much they can do. Their call to turn out and demonstrate for the Islamic flag Tuesday brought out their own followers and no one else, whereas the opposition is not only backed by millions of assorted groups but has now gained the support of the army, the police, the security service and the intelligence agency. とはいえ彼らが出来ることは多くはない。反政府抗議行動は数百万の参加者のみならず軍部 と警察、公安、諜報組織の支持を得ている。
Tuesday morning, US President Barack Obama and Chief of US General Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey intervened in the Egyptian crisis early Tuesday, July 2, in an attempt to save the besieged President Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood. Obama called the Egyptian president and Gen. Dempsey phoned Chief of staff Gen. Sedki Sobhi, hoping to defuse the three-way crisis between the regime, the army and the protest movement before it gets out of hand. 2日の火曜日の朝にオバマ大統領と統合参謀本部議長のMartin Dempsey将軍がエジプトに介入 しMorsi大統領とムスリム同胞団を救おうと試みた。オバマはエジプト大統領に、議長はエジ プトのSedki Sobhi将軍に電話した。その狙いはエジプトの政権と抗議行動と軍の三つ巴の危 機を回避しようとするものであった。
The crash of Morsi’s presidency would seriously undermine the objectives of the Arab Revolt pursued by the Obama administration as the arch-stone of his Middle East policy. The administration had earlier sought unsuccessfully to persuade the heads of the Egyptian army not to issue its 48-hour ultimatum to Egypt’s rulers “heed the will of the people” by Wednesday afternoon - or else the army would intervene. The Americans proposed instead to leave Morsi in place after stripping him of presidential authority and installing a transitional government to prepare the country for new elections to the presidency and parliament. アメリカ側の提案はMorsi大統領の権限を剥奪した後で、そのまま在位させ、大統領と議会 の早期選挙に向けて暫定政府を作るというものであった
DEBKAfile’s Middle East sources report that the army chiefs led by Defense Minister Gen. Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi rejected the American proposal. DEBKAのソースによれば軍の最高指揮官であるAbdel-Fattah el-Sissiはアメリカの提案を拒否 したという
Obama promised to back steps taken by President Morsi to show he is “responsive to the opposition’s concerns,” while Gen. Dempsey asked Egyptian generals to moderate their stand against the Muslim Brotherhood. The underlying message was that if they failed to do so, Washington might reconsider its $1.3 billion annual military assistance package which is the main source of income for the armed forces. オバマ大統領はMorsi大統領が「野党側の要請に耳を傾ける」ように表明することを保証 するとし、一方でDempsey将軍はエジプト軍にムスリム同胞団への扱いを穏健にするよう にと求めた。この介入の背後にはアメリカのエジプト軍への年間13億ドルに及ぶ経済支援 がエジプト軍の主要な収入であり、エジプト側が聞き入れなければその支出を再検討する というものである。
Heartened by the US president’s vote of support, Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood and its Islamic allies, rejected the army’s ultimatum for resolving the country’s deadly crisis, saying it would sow confusion and ran contrary to the Egyptian constitution. このアメリカの介入によってMorsi大統領とムスリム同胞団はアメリカの支持を得たとして エジプト軍の最後通告を拒否した。
Morsi insisted he would stick to his own plans for national reconciliation. His regime is meanwhile crumbling: Foreign Minister Mohamed Kamel Amr resigned early Tuesday, the sixth minister to quit the government in the last 24 hours. He follows the president’s military adviser Gen. Sami Anan, former chief of staff under President Hosni Mubarak. Senior judges and high police officers were seen taking part in the anti-government protest rallies of the last week. Morsi and the Brotherhood now face two ultimatums: If by Tuesday afternoon,
he has not agreed to step down and call an early election, the organizers of the protest movement, which has brought millions to the streets of Egyptian cities, will launch a relentless and anarchic campaign of civil disobedience. The defense minister says the army will intervene if the government fails “to heed the will of the people” by Wednesday afternoon.
ttp://seattletimes.com/html/nationworld/2021323955_egyptislamxml.html Originally published Wednesday, July 3, 2013 at 8:47 PM Fall of Egypt Islamists likely to resonate across Mideast From Tunisia to war-torn Syria, anti-Islamist activists have begun expressing unhappiness with the religious parties empowered by the freedoms unleashed by the Arab Spring. By Liz Sly The Washington Post エジプトのイスラミストの下野の影響が中東全域に及ぶ チェニジアからシリアまで、アンチ・イスラミストは宗教政党のアラブの春に依る 活性化を憂慮している ワシントン・ポスト
“What happens to the Islamists in Egypt will determine their status in the remaining countries of the region,” said Jordanian political analyst Labib Kamhawi. “This is making them nervous because they know that if they lose in Egypt, they will end up losing everywhere.” ヨルダンの政治アナリストはエジプトのイスラミストの失敗が他の国にも伝染する 事を(諸国のイスラミストが)恐れているという
Islamist extremists, in Egypt and elsewhere, may argue that what many are calling a military coup validates the use of violence to achieve their aims. エジプトの軍部に依るクーデターでイスラミストが失敗(政権を追われる)した事 で、イスラミスト側はこれまで以上に暴力の使用が正当化されたと考える恐れが・・
ABU DHABI: President His Highness Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan has sent a congratulatory cable to His Excellency Adly Mansour after he was sworn in as President of the Arab Republic of Egypt during the transition period. Sheikh Khalifa wished him success in his historic mission, stressing that the UAE looks for the Egyptian people to realise all of their wishes for stability and prosperity.
Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz王はエジプト軍と国防相を称賛して King Abdullah also praised the armed forces, saying: “At the same time, we strongly shake hands with the men of all the armed forces, represented by General Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, who managed to save Egypt at this critical moment from a dark tunnel God only could apprehend its dimensions and repercussions, but the wisdom and moderation came out of those men to preserve the rights of all parties in the political process.” “Please accept our greetings to you and deep respect to our brothers in Egypt and its people, wishing Egypt steady stability and security.”
“On Egypt, Al-Jazeera Arabic went from being a pro-revolution voice under Mubarak to a pro-government voice under the Muslim Brotherhood,” he said. “This is especially the case with the network Mubasher Misr that is geared specifically to the Egyptian market.”
Al-Jazeera itself has a history of “broadcasting shows and reports that appeal to conservative Sunni constituencies in the region,” said Lefevre, such as Sheikh Youssef al-Qaradawi’s “Shariah and Life” program. “On Egypt, the two networks don’t see eye to eye as Al-Jazeera have overtly become an unabashed advocate on behalf of the Ikhwan [brothers] and have come down heavy on the opposition,” Iskandar said.
Qatar has played a singular role in providing diplomatic backing and financial support to countries in upheaval throughout the Arab world. It has also earned a reputation for supporting Islamist governments. Without Mr. Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood at the helm, Qatar's role in propping Egypt's economy may also be in doubt. ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323899704578583191518313964.html
The CDS contracts dropped to 787, the lowest since June 20, according to CMA, a data provider owned by McGraw-Hill Cos. that compiles prices quoted by dealers in the privately negotiated market. Egypt remains one of the world’s 10 riskiest credits and the 2020 bond yield is still up 3.27 percentage points in the past year. エジプト国債のCDSも低下
(1)サウジやUAEはムバラクを見捨ててアラブの春を支援したオバマ政権を恨みに思っている これらの国はアラブの春の流れを反転したい Saudi Arabia and the UAE threw their weight and purses behind Egypt’s generals aiming to put their first big spoke in the US-sponsored Arab Revolt (or Spring), after they failed to hold the tide back in Libya, Egypt and thus far Syria.
(2)両国はクーデターの後アメリカがエジプト軍部への経済支援を差し止めるなら、その肩 代わりをすると約束して、軍部を後押しした 1Should the Obama administration cut off the annual US aid allocation of $1.3 billion, Saudi Arabia and the UAE would make up the military budget’s shortfall;
The Saudis, UAE and other Gulf nations, such as Bahrain and Kuwait, would immediately start pumping out substantial funds to keep the Egyptian economy running. The Egyptian masses would be shown that in a properly managed economy, they could be guaranteed a minimal standard of living and need not go hungry as many did under Muslim Brotherhood rule.
(4)サウジなどのファンドに依る金融支援という計画はカタールがエジプトのムスリム同胞 団政権への融資(130億ドル)を行ったいた事に対向する Qatar transferred to the Muslim Brotherhood’s coffers in Cairo in the past year, amounting to the vast sum of $13 billion.
(5)このアラブ諸国の計画は、アラブ諸国から見て頼りとするに足りないオバマ政権の中東 政策(イニシアチブの不在)に期待するのではなく、アラブ諸国が自ら介入して中東状況 を変えようという・・ The Saudi-Gulf intervention in Egypt’s change of government also ushers in a new stage of the Arab Revolt for the Middle East. For the first time, a group of traditionally pro-US conservative Arab governments has struck out on its own to fill the leadership vacuum left by the Obama administration’s unwillingness to pursue direct initiatives in the savage Syrian civil war or forcibly preempt Iran’s drive for a nuclear bomb.
エジプト海軍関係者によると、同軍は現地時間3月27日、海底に敷設されているインタ ーネットケーブルを切断していた3人のダイバーを逮捕したという。 Ahmed Mohammed Ali大佐が自らの公式Facebookページで述べたところによると、沿岸 警備隊がアレクサンドリア近くで漁船を停止させ、エジプトの大手通信会社Telecom Egyptが所有する「海底ケーブルを切断していた」3人のダイバーを逮捕したという。 報道によると、同ページではダイバーの身元に関する詳細は明かされていないという。
ANKARA, Turkey ? Turkey, which had formed an emerging alliance with Egypt's ousted Islamist leader Muhammed Morsi, on Thursday slammed the democratically elected leader's overthrow by the military as "unacceptable" and called for his release from house arrest. トルコ政府はエジプトのMuhammed Morsi大統領の追放について、民主的に選ばれた 代表を軍事クーデターで置き換えることは受け入れがたいとして大統領の自宅軟禁 を解くように求めた
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Islamic-rooted government has been watching developments in Egypt with concern as the armed forces ousted Morsi, an Islamist and Egypt's first democratically elected president. "The toppling of a government that came into office through democratic elections, through methods that are not legal ? and what is worse, through a military coup ? is unacceptable, no matter what the reasons," Davutoglu said. "It is important from the point of view of a national consensus that (leaders) who have been arrested are immediately released," he said. トルコ外相は軍事クーデターを違法であり、理由の如何を問わず受け入れられない として大統領の開放を求めた。
"China respects the choice of the Egyptian people," Hua told reporters at a regular press briefing in Beijing. "We also hope that all parties concerned in Egypt can avoid using violence and properly solve their disputes through dialogue and consultation and realise reconciliation and social stability." 「中国はエジプト国民の選択を尊重する」「また中国はエジプトが暴力を避けて 対立する諸問題を対話とコンサルテーションで解決し社会の安定化をはたすこと を希望する」
The United States expressed concern at the ouster of Mohamed Morsi on Wednesday and called for a swift return to democracy, as did the European Union. But they stopped short of calling it a coup, which might have led to sanctions. アメリカはEUと同じく、エジプトの政変に深く憂慮するとし早期の民主化復帰を求めたが 国内法で制裁規定のあるクーデターの用語を使うことを控えた
The 54-nation African Union was likely to suspend Egypt for allowing "unconstitutional change", a senior AU source told Reuters. アグリカ連合(AU)はエジプトの「憲法によらない政権変更」を認め難いだろうと高位の ソースが語った
For Gulf Arab states, which see Egypt as a strategic ally against any threat from non-Arab Iran across the Gulf, the appointment of constitutional court chief Adli Mansour as interim leader was met with congratulations and evident relief. 湾岸アラブ諸国はエジプトの新大統領を歓迎
Iran, which sought to repair its strained ties with Egypt after Morsi's election a year ago, gave a guarded response, calling for the people's "legitimate demands" to be fulfilled and warning of "foreign and enemy opportunism". イランは防衛的なコメントを出していてエジプト国民の正統合法な要求がみたされること を求め、さらに外国と国内の敵の機会便乗に警告を発した
"Certainly the resistant nation of Egypt will protect its independence and greatness from foreign and enemy opportunism during the difficult conditions that follow," Fars news agency quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Araqchi as saying.
Syria, fighting to crush a two-year-old uprising against President Bashar al-Assad, urged Morsi to step down on Wednesday and realize "that the overwhelming majority of the Egyptian people reject him," Information Minister Omran Zoabi was quoted as saying by state news agency SANA. Syriaは先にMorsi大統領に辞任するよう求めていた
Neighboring Israel avoided any show of satisfaction over Morsi's ouster, although a confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed hope Mansour's appointment would lead to the restoration of largely frozen contacts with Cairo. イスラエルはクーデターの結果に満足しているが公的には、そういう反応を見せ ていない。
警官隊の士官が筆者に語って "This is the best revolution that ever happened in the history of our entire country," the lieutenant told me. "It gathered all types of people together?the police, the army, all the Egyptian people, and the judges." But if President Morsi doesn't step down, I asked, will you leave the streets and continue reporting to him? "If he doesn't step down," the cop replied, "we are still with the people."
*おもすろいのは、ムスリム同胞団の現状認識で、筆者のインタビューしたイスラミスト は完全に現実政治のリアリティから乖離していたという ムスリム同胞団の活動家は "Life has improved for most people," a Muslim Brother member told me a few weeks ago as we sipped tea in the organization's offices in a quiet Cairo suburb. "The poor make much more money. The middle class is also much better off. The problem, though, is that some of the wealthy are not making as much money as they used to, and they are funding the campaign against the president."
Deutsche Bank's Joe LaVorgna (+145k): "We are below consensus on June nonfarm payrolls because there has been a tendency for the data to gravitate toward +145k. This has been both the three- and 12-month average rates of change if we use the initially reported figures. Moreover, this is also the high end of what June payrolls have printed going back to 2000?the highest initially reported June value was +146k in 2005."
UBS's Kevin Cummins (+155k): "Government furloughs associated with Federal sequester should not have an impact on the payroll report. In the establishment survey, people are counted as employed if they work at any time during the payroll survey period. Nor should any sequester-related furloughs impact the workweek measure because the workweek is limited to private industries."
Societe Generale's Brian Jones (+175k): "While an 8,000 rise to 349,000 in the mean number of persons filing new jobless claims over the four weeks heading into the June establishment survey hints at a modest pick-up in pink slipping, a reported 101,000 reduction in persons on all state and federal unemployment insurance benefit rolls implies stronger hiring between canvasses.
Capital Economics' Paul Dales (+150k): "The wildcard, as is always the case in June, is whether more or fewer school leavers than normal entered the ranks of the employed rather than the unemployed."
Wells Fargo's John Silvia (+153k): "Some of the largest employment gains have been in lower-paying industries, such as administrative and waste services, which have contributed to modest wage growth. On average, the economy has been adding just short of 190,000 jobs each month this year, although February’s large reading overstates the general trend."
Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius (+150k): "Our forecasts for the US dataset to be released this week will likely be mixed for rates... we think that payrolls will likely disappoint market expectations."
Morgan Stanley's Vincent Reinhart (+165k): "We expect the Employment Report to reflect the slight deterioration in jobless claims between mid-May and mid-June. So, we see nonfarm payrolls increasing only 165,000 in June (vs. 175,000 in May). However, the unemployment rate should decrease to 7.5% as the job growth we’re expecting should outpace the uptick in the participation rate."
Had Morsi and his party been left in place to continue their drive to impose their Islamist vision on the world’s most populous Arab country it might have been impossible to depose them, thus locking Egypt into the same nightmare scenario of theocratic tyranny that we have seen unfold in Iran in the last generation. エジプトのMorsi大統領が成功裏に統治を続けるなら、前の世代がイランのイス ラム化を見たのと同じ悪夢をエジプトに見ることに成ったであろう
The even better news is that the Egyptian Army didn’t listen to the Obama administration when it asked them not to launch what is, for all intents and purposes, a military coup that toppled a democratically elected government. 良いニュースが有って、エジプトの軍部はオバマ政権の要請を蹴ってクーデター を断行した;
The embrace of Morsi and the Brotherhood by President Obama and his foreign policy over the last year has further poisoned Egyptian public opinion against the United States as well as strengthened the confidence of Islamists that America will not oppose their efforts to transform the region. オバマ大統領のMorsiやムスリム同胞団への支持はエジプト国民をして反米風潮 をかき立てせしめている
After having been intimidated by U.S. pressure aimed at ensuring that the military would not prevent Morsi’s election, the military ran the risk that this time Obama meant what he said about using the billions in aid Egypt gets from the United States to prevent them from stopping the Brotherhood’s push for power. アメリカはエジプト軍部への経済支援の停止を材料に大統領選挙へに軍部の介入 を押さえてきたが
The willingness of the Egyptian army to step in and stop the confrontation in the streets not only avoided clashes that might have produced unimaginable casualties but also kept open the possibility that a new government could emerge in Cairo without having to fight a civil war in order to survive. エジプト国内の対立の深刻化で、その衝突が内戦へと拡大することを防止する為 エジプト軍部が政治に介入してクーデター騒ぎになった
However, the bad news is twofold. First, the series of events leading up to the ouster illustrates the utter bankruptcy of American foreign policy under Barack Obama. The second is that there should be no blind confidence that what will follow will make Egypt more stable or prosperous, let alone free. The United States should oppose the rise of Islamists, but none of the possible outcomes of the conflict playing out between them and the military and secular Egyptians is likely to produce a liberal democracy or a nation that is likely to be a force for peace in the region. この事件の悪いニュースはアメリカの中東政策の破綻である。
It should be specified that events in Egypt could never be controlled from Washington. But the Obama administration bears a heavy share of the blame for a chain of decisions that first undermined an authoritarian ally in Mubarak and then paved the way for the rise of an equally authoritarian and far more hostile government led by Morsi and the Brotherhood. The identification of the United States with the Brotherhood over the last year was an unforced error on the part of Obama, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her successor John Kerry. The willingness of the administration to buy into the myth that regimes like that of the Brotherhood and their increasingly despotic Islamic allies in Turkey are good allies made a mockery of American values as well as hindering its ability to protect U.S. interests. オバマ政権のエジプト政策は問題が多すぎで、権威主義的なムバラクを見捨て 同じように権威主義的な、そしてより非友好的なMorsiとムスリム同胞団を支持 した。イスラミスト政権をアメリカの友好国と見なすことは最近のトルコについ ても言えるのだが、アメリカ的価値観に反し国益に反する;
英国のインテリ・リベラル紙であるガーディアンの社説はエジプトのクーデター で軍と警察を非難し、民主的選挙の結果を台無しにしたと論じている。 形式的にはそのとおりなのだけれど、エジプトのリベラルや世俗派、コプト派キ リスト教が、クーデター支持に回っていることを意図的に無視していて、イデオ ロジカルな色の強い非合理なものになっていると思ふ。 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/04/egypt-throwing-ballot-box-window Egypt: throwing the ballot box out the window The country has returned to where it was two years ago and with Morsi gone the old regime is back where they want to be Editorial The Guardian, Thursday 4 July 2013 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ちなみにこれはワシントン・ポストも同じで ttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/us-must-suspend-aid-after-egypts-coup/2013/07/04/cd53f248-e4a8-11e2-a11e-c2ea876a8f30_story.html The Post’s View U.S. must suspend aid after Egypt’s coup By Editorial Board, Friday, July 5, 2:39 AM --------------------------------------------------------------------------- *欧米のリベラルの軍とか警察の政治介入への強い拒否感が感じられるのだけれど 途上国の現実の政治は、そういうキレイ事とは無関係で、国が破綻寸前の分裂状態 であるときに、まともに機能する組織というのは軍くらいしか無いわけで(ry
The mistake on all sides in the Middle East has been to confuse democracy with the ballot box. It is not enough that leaders submit themselves for periodical elections. Democracy demands a commitment to pluralism, the submission of the powerful as well as the weak to the rule of law, protections for minorities and respect for cultural and ethnic difference. None of these was in plentiful supply during Mr Morsi’s year-long presidency.
Analyst Nathan Brown said: “The Mursi presidency is without a doubt one of the most colossal failures in the Brotherhood's history.” Even allies of the Brotherhood criticized Mursi and the Islamist movement for they way they tried to run the country. “The president procrastinated. His group... lost any real opportunities to build a national base that would have isolated the counter-revolution,” said Mohammed Mahsub, a senior leader of the Al-Wasat party. ・・・ “Yes, it is true that the Brotherhood did well in elections; that it was not able to govern fully but still saddled with responsibility for Egypt's insurmountable problems,” the analyst Brown wrote on the New Republic website. “It is also undeniable that Mursi and the Brotherhood made almost every conceivable mistake... such as reaching too quickly for political power or failing to build coalitions with others.(後略) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- *政治的宣伝活動を通じて有権者の支持を得、政権につけるだけの十分な投票を獲得す ることと、国の統治を通じて有権者を納得せしめることの間には天と地ほどの隔たりが・・
ttp://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2013/0702/Nice-guy-Obama-fails-Turkey-s-democracy Nice-guy Obama fails Turkey's democracy The Obama administration has been far too solicitous of Turkey's Prime Minister Erdogan and his increasingly authoritarian ways. Its reasoning is based on the flawed assumption that being nice will ensure cooperation from this strategic ally. That hasn't been the case. By Steven A. Cook, Op-ed contributor / July 2, 2013
オバマのナイスガイの姿勢がトルコの民主化を阻害する オバマ政権のトルコ首相への姿勢は、配慮のしまくりであって、エルドアン首相の 加速的に権威主義的な傾向を隠す。外交相手に対して、ナイスガイとして振る舞う ことが戦略的同盟国の協力を得るという前提があるようだが、それは違う By Steven A. Cook クリスチャン・サイエンス・モニター ------------------------------------------------------------------------- オバマ政権の何かと目立つナイスガイ姿勢(外交のみならず環境問題、移民問題、 差別問題・・)というのが、さほどの思想的根拠があるとは思えず、その姿勢が 有権者に受けると思っているだけなのでは?
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Leaders of the Islamist movement express varied messages on how it will proceed following Morsi's ouster; some analysts suggest Brotherhood finished, others say movement to reorganize ranks, run in next elections. A member of the Muslim Brotherhood and supporter of Mohamed Morsi. イスラミスト運動の指導者のメッセージはバラバラで、エジプトのクーデター 後の運動をどうしてゆくのか明瞭ではない。ムスリム同胞団は終わったという 意見もあれば、そうではないとするものも。専門家のコメントは:
●終わったわけではなく、次の選挙を目指して運動再建だろう Prof. Efraim Inbar, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (BESA), told the Post that he does not think the coup against the Brotherhood signals the end of political Islam in the region as it still “is a strong force everywhere in the Middle East. “If there will be elections in a month, there is a chance that the Brotherhood would win again,” Inbar says. In any case, he sees the continued “power of the people” as an important player in regional politics.
●受けた打撃は深刻、しかし終わったわけでもない Prof. Meir Litvak of the department of Middle Eastern history and the director for the Alliance Center of Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University, told the Post that the setback for the Brotherhood is a serious one, but it “may not be the end of such a broad and deeply rooted movement.” Asked if the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups will suffer as well from this setback, Litvak responded that the crisis of one Islamic movement does not mean the others are in crisis. Litvak argued that it is likely the Muslim Brotherhood in other countries may learn from the mistakes of the Egyptian movement and “be more cautious or prudent in their conduct. But it is far too early to insist that they are finished.”
●彼らの政権運用能力への疑問は残されたまま Jonathan Schanzer, vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, explained that Islamists throughout the region see the coup and are nervous about its repercussions. The Brotherhood-dominated opposition in Jordan could suffer as a result of the coup as well, he said. Schanzer believes the Brotherhood will have to re-invent itself to stay relevant as its reputation for clean government has been tarnished. He noted that it will be interesting to see how Morsi’s strongholds respond, particularly those in northern Egypt.
ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323899704578586911306801352.html エジプト軍がスエズと南シナイ半島に非常事態宣言を出したため石油先物が高騰 Crude oil futures shot markedly higher Friday morning on reports that the Egyptian military has declared a state of emergency in Suez and South Sinai provinces. WSJ -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?section=news/national_world&id=9161446 クーデター後の最初のイスラミストの攻撃;シナイ半島のel-Arish空港でロケット砲 迫撃砲、RPG及び対航空機銃で軍の航空機を狙う The first coordinated assault by Islamic militants since the ouster of Mohammed Morsi came in the lawless Sinai Peninsula. Masked assailants launched coordinated attacks with rockets, mortars, RPGs and anti-aircraft guns on el-Arish airport, where military aircrafts are stationed, as well as the Central Security camp in Rafah and five military and police posts.
この攻撃に端を発してエジプト側のガザへの境界を閉鎖 The military and security forces returned the fire. Military helicopters flew over the area. Egypt indefinitely closed its nearby border crossing into the Gaza Strip after the assault, sending 200 Palestinians back into Gaza, said Gen. Sami Metwali, director of Rafah passage.
ムスリム同胞団はクーデターを認めず、新政研に協力せず対向すると発表 金曜日の大規模抗議行動を呼びかけ。軍は平和裏の抗議行動は許容と言う。 The Brotherhood charged the military staged a coup against democracy and said it would not work with the new leadership. It and harder-line Islamist allies called for a wave of protests Friday, naming it the "Friday of Rage," vowing to escalate if the military does not back down.
An honest, capable and representative government is what ordinary Egyptians seek and what they deserve. The longstanding partnership between the United States and Egypt is based on shared interests and values, and we will continue to work with the Egyptian people to ensure that Egypt’s transition to democracy succeeds.
Right now one suspects that most Egyptians fear that the country could be in a transition to anarchy, and that what ordinary Egyptians (who are extremely poor by US standards and earn their bread by the sweat of their brow with very little cushion against illness or a bad day at the market) want most of all right now is security.
And Americans should not deceive themselves. While some of Morsi’s failure was the result of overreaching and dumb choices on his part, he faced a capital strike and an intense campaign of passive resistance by a government and business establishment backed by an army in bed with both groups. Their strategy was to bring Morsi down by sabotaging the economy, frustrating his policies and isolating his appointees. Although Egypt’s liberals supported the effort out of fear of the Islamists, the strategy had nothing to do with a transition to democracy, and it worked.
民主主義体制云々が問題ではなくムスリム同胞団と大統領に統治能力がなかっただけ である
This is not to say that Morsi or his movement had a viable alternative policy or governance model for Egypt. They didn’t. The Muslim Brotherhood had no clue how Egypt could be governed, and a combination of incompetence, corruption, factionalism and religious dogmatism began to wreck Morsi’s government from Day One.
We can’t take for granted that we or they will succeed in this; Egypt’s economic problems are pressing. It’s likely that the non-coup will lure some Egyptian money back into the country, but if violence continues and Islamist terrorists foment disorder and attack, for example, tourists, bad things can happen fast. Egypt is much closer to being a basket case than it is to becoming a democracy. Less study of the fine print of the Egyptian constitution, more concern about a strategically important country headed over Niagara Falls in a bucket, please.
アメリカが外交政策において常に、相手国の状況やリアリティに無関係に早急な 民主化を要求するという悪癖は止めたほうが良い、と書いていて興味深い。 Beyond that, we need a fundamental rethink of our approach to the promotion of democracy abroad.
ttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-05/egypt-interim-leader-sworn-in-as-islamists-targeted.html Troops opened fire on pro-Mursi demonstrators attempting to march on the Republican Guards headquarters in Cairo today, and one protester was hurt, the Brotherhood said on its Twitter feed. Scores of people were injured in clashes between supporters and opponents of Mursi in Damanhur in northwest Egypt, the state-run Middle East News Agency reported. A police officer was wounded by gunfire as Mursi supporters clashed with police in Giza, the state-run Ahram Gate website said.
これはちょっとおもすろい読み物、ブルームバーグにあるものでヨルダン国王 Abdullah IIのMursiとErdogan評 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-04/good-riddance-to-brotherhood-s-fake-democrats.html Good Riddance to Brotherhood’s Fake Democrats By Jeffrey Goldberg Jul 5, 2013 1:56 AM GMT+0900 ムスリム同胞団の偽物の民主制の厄介払い By Jeffrey Goldberg
A few months ago, King Abdullah II of Jordan told me about his meetings with Mohamed Mursi, the now-deposed president of Egypt. The king wasn’t fond of Mursi, both because the Egyptian was a leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, and because Abdullah found Mursi exceedingly stupid. “I see a Muslim Brotherhood crescent developing in Egypt and Turkey,” the king said. He despises the movement, partly because it is revanchist, fundamentalist and totalitarian, and partly because in Jordan it seeks his overthrow. “The Arab Spring highlighted a new crescent in the process of development.”
The saving grace in Egypt, he said, was that Mursi seemed too unsophisticated to successfully pull off his vision. “There’s no depth to the guy,” he said of Mursi. The king compared him unfavorably to Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Islamist prime minister of Turkey. Like Mursi, the king asserted, Erdogan was also a false democrat, but one with patience. “Erdogan once said that democracy for him is a bus ride,” Abdullah said. “Once I get to my stop, I’m getting off.” Unlike Mursi, however, Erdogan was masterful at manipulating a system that didn’t trust him, the king said. “Instead of the Turkish model, taking six or seven years -- being an Erdogan -- Mursi wanted to do it overnight.” Recent events in Turkey, including the government’s miscalculated response to mass protests, have shown that perhaps even Erdogan isn’t an Erdogan anymore.
国王はMursi大統領がエジプトを統治するには洗練さが足りないという。「この男には深 みがない」国王はMursi大統領をトルコのエルドアン首相(国王は彼をも嫌っているのだが) に比較して語った。エルドアン首相は、かって国王に「民主制とはバスに乗るようなものだ」 と述べたという。「目的地に着けばバスを降りる」しかしMursi大統領と異なってエルドアン 首相は老獪であり、自身は信用していないシステムを巧みに操作するという。「トルコ・モ デルとは異なってMursi大統領はエルドアンが6年とか7年かけてやったことを一夜にしてやろ うとする」だけど最近エルドアンは大衆の抗議行動への対応を計算違いしている。エルドア ンもまた、かってのような老獪なエルドアンではない。 (略) Luckily, Mursi, as King Abdullah suggested, was a thoroughgoing incompetent, who fulfilled few of the Brotherhood’s promises, including its most vindictive ones. It is almost comical now to remember that among Mursi’s more banal pledges was his vow to solve Cairo’s impossible traffic, a mess exacerbated in recent days by the presence of millions of anti-Mursi demonstrators on the streets and in the squares. 国王の示唆したとおり、Mursi大統領はムスリム同胞団の約束した事は殆ど実現できずに、 その中には首都の交通混雑の解消とか出来そうにないことも入っているのだが、その無能 さのために、彼は政権を剥奪された。 (略)
Had the military not intervened, though, the Muslim Brotherhood may have tried, over time, to make sure that Egypt’s first free and fair election was also its last. A number of Egyptian friends have written me in the past day, arguing that what the Egyptian people did -- or, more to the point, what the Egyptian army, responding to the will of the people, did -- was to forestall the rise of a new Hitler. If the Germans, who chose Adolf Hitler in a democratic election, had turned on him a year later, well, you know the rest. The analogy is overdone for so many reasons, but it is absolutely true that the Muslim Brotherhood is a totalitarian cult, not a democratic party. もしもエジプト軍が介入しなかったならば、恐らくムスリム同胞団はエジプトの最初の自 由で民主的な大統領選挙を、最後の選挙にしたかもしれない。私の何人ものエジプトの友 人が手紙を書いて言うには、エジプト軍のしたことはヒットラーの勃興を止めた事に等し い。ヒットラーは民主的選挙で選ばれ、そしてその後・・・まあその歴史はよく知られて いる。この比喩は逝き過ぎであろうけれどムスリム同胞団が民主的な政党ではなくて、全 体主義のカルトだというのは全く正しいのだ(後略)
A new Egyptian crisis arena: the Egyptian and Israeli armies Friday, July 5, raised their alert levels on either side of the Sinai border after the Muslim Brotherhood declared Sinai its center of revolt and revenge for the Egyptian army’s ouster of Mohamed Morsi as president Wednesday, July 3. Following a multiple Islamist attack in northern Sinai, the Egyptian army went on high alert in the Suez and North Sinai provinces. The Sinai border crossings to the Gaza Strip and Israel were closed. The army spokesman in Cairo denied declaring an emergency ? only a heightened alert. Israel has imposed a blackout on news from this tense region, but DEBKAfile reports reinforcements were sent in Friday to boost the IDF units standing ready along the Egyptian border. Egyptian forces also shut down all three underground passages running from the mainland to Sinai under the Suez Canal. Egypt’s Third Army was deployed to secure them, under the command of Maj. Gen. Osama Askar.
・・・・ The ousted Muslim Brotherhood’s strategy is seen by intelligence sources as designed to transform the Sinai Peninsula into an area of revolt and a base for attacking Israel. They are counting on the army having its hands too full with maintaining security in the mainland cities of Cairo, Alexandria and the Nile Delta to have troops to spare for Sinai. They intend to demonstrate that the military are incapable of at one and the same time fighting the Egyptian people, defending Western shipping in the Canal and Gulf of Suez and preventing attacks on Israel.
The new Sinai War Council set up by Morsi’s followers released a video tape threatening that “rebel’ forces would target any army and police personnel found in Sinai in retribution for the military coup.
In another development, an Interior Ministry spokesman said the deputy head of Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood, Khairat el-Shater, considered the most powerful man in the organization, has been arrested.
これ以外にも警備当局はムスリム同胞団の武装派の逮捕を行なっているようで、 200人以上を捜索中という。ムスリム同胞団を抑えこもうという意志は明瞭 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.observer-reporter.com/article/20130704/NEWS06/130709742/-1/NEWS#.UdeQAEExuSo Top Brotherhood figures seized in Egypt sweep Associated Press published jul 4, 2013 at 11:26 pm (updated jul 4, 2013 at 11:26 pm)
Authorities have also issued a wanted list for more than 200 Brotherhood members and leaders of other Islamist groups. Among them is Khairat el-Shater, another deputy of the general guide who is widely considered the most powerful figure in the Brotherhood.
The Egyptian army said on Friday that it did not use live ammunition against protesters backing Islamist President Mohammed Mursi amid reports that three demonstrators had been killed. 3人の死者の出た金曜日のカイロのムスリム同胞団の抗議行動についてエジプト軍 は一部報道のいう実弾の使用を否定した。
At least three people were killed and several wounded in a gunfight between the Republican Guard and pro-Mursi demonstraters, AFP reported. An AFP correspondent said that two people’s bodies were covered with sheets and a third was shot in the head. However, a security source denied reports that there have been fatalities in the recent clash, Egypt TV reported. AFPは3人のムスリム同胞団の抗議行動者の死亡について、2人の遺体はシートでカバー され3人めは頭部を撃たれていると書いている。
Gunfire erupted near the headquarters of the Republican Guard in Cairo where pro-Mursi supporters had gathered to express their dissatisfaction over the military’s decision to oust the elected president. Gun shots could be heard coming from both the Republican Guard and the demonstrators, said an AFP correspondent, adding that shooting began when a pro-Mursi protester attempted to hang a picture of the Islamist president on the barbed wire in front of the Republican Guard headquarters. The correspondent said that the army warned the man twice not to get closer to the building before they opened fire. AFPはカイロの共和国防衛隊本部前のムスリム同胞団の抗議行動で銃声が聞こえ、軍は 2度の警告の後発砲したと書いている。
The military is trying to disperse the crowd of pro-Mursi supporters with tear gas, Al Arabiya's correspondent reported. アルアラビアの記者は軍が催涙ガスで抗議行動者を鎮圧しようとしたと言っている。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- *エジプトの都市の抗議行動やシナイ半島のテロについて、現状は情報が錯綜して いて、どれが本当でどれがデマか見分けにくい。暫く時間がたてば、もう少しまと もなほうどうが出てきそうだけれど
ttp://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/07/05/egypt-coup-violence/2493373/ Amid post-coup clashes, Egypt's Islamists split Oren Dorell, @OrenDorell, USA TODAY 9:45 p.m. EDT July 5, 2013 About an hour before clashes, Muslim Brotherhood supreme guide Mohammed Badie told his followers "May the Lord destroy" the secular opponents of the Islamist movement. A spokesman called for calm. エジプトのクーデター後、イスラミスト勢力に現れた分裂状態 Oren Dorell
(武闘派) "At #tahrir now... sounds of machine / automatic gun fire from pro #morsi supporters shot at protesters now," AbdelSalam wrote from @AdhamNileFm. "Live from #tahrir... one more dead... by pro #morsi bullets.." (穏健派) A spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood, Gehad El-Haddad, issued a message on his Twitter account calling for calm. "We call on all Egyptian people to remain peaceful and call on law enforcement agencies to do their job at Maspero & in Alexandria," he wrote earlier in the day.
●原理主義のサラフィスト、Nour Partyはムスリム同胞団の戦略と一線を画し、別の 路線を行く(負け馬に乗らない) Egypt's Salafis, the ultra-fundamentalist Islamists who want their literal interpretation of religious law enacted immediately, "are not on the same page" as the Brotherhood, which they now see as weakened, said Tawfik Hamid, a former Islamic radical from Egypt who's now a senior fellow at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies in Washington. "They don't want to join a failing horse."
●アルカイダに近いエジプトのジハーディストはエジプト軍に徹底抗戦の路線、 エジプト国内(シナイ半島)でのテロに向かう。ムスリム同胞団主流の穏健派 とは無縁。 On the other hand, Egypt's Jihadis, fundamentalist Islamists who believe their goals can only be achieved through violence, have already begun to launch small attacks across the Egyptian mainland, and al-Qaeda-linked groups in the Sinai announced on Thursday a new emirate, or kingdom, in that sparsely populated desert expanse on the border with Israel. The al-Qaeda-linked groups in the Sinai are not connected to the Brotherhood and other peaceful Islamic networks, and they announce "every day a new name," Phares said. "They want to create an emirate and create a no-go zone for the Egyptian army."
●専門家は武闘派がエジプト軍に対峙して戦闘を持続可能かを疑っているけど Phares believes the military is handling the unrest with deliberate restraint ? allowing the Brotherhood to mobilize, march and give speeches accusing the military of being pro-American and pro-Israel ? in order to provide a relief valve for Islamist anger and to send a message to the world that the army is giving them a voice, "to disarm the idea this is a coup," Phares said. That approach can only last so long, however, before violence will flare, said Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Institution Doha Center.
ttp://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/07/06/the_peoples_coup So it was a coup. What of it? The Western media and hand-wringing liberals were perfectly comfortable with the military coup that ousted Hosni Mubarak, whose government was internationally recognized as the legitimate government of Egypt. They praised the very same young liberals when they brought Mubarak down that they now condemn for doing the same to Mohamed Morsy. They vaunted the upheavals in the Arab world as a new "Arab Spring," with democracy around the corner, and reviled the traditional monarchies for not responding to the "will of the people." 西側メディアは、以前には正統的な政権であったムバラクの軍部の関わっ た追放劇(クーデター)を完璧に歓迎していたのだけれど、今回のMohamed Morsyの追放クーデターを非難していている。彼らはアラブの春を大いに称 賛(vaunted)しデモクラシーに向かうものと歓迎し伝統的な中東の王国を国 民の意志に答えないと非難した
The fact that the Islamist government of Morsy was "democratically" elected proves little. Morsy won with barely a majority, thanks to the well-organized Muslim brotherhood. He and his Muslim Brothers hypnotized Western observers and analysts with platitudes about democracy and good governance. But Morsy was not the people's choice; the millions who demonstrated against him made that abundantly clear. 実際には「民主的に選択された」Morsy政権というのは、過半数を辛うじて 上回って、それはムスリム同胞団の組織力のなせる技であった。西側の観察 者とアナリストはムスリム同胞団と大統領に魅了されて、お決まりのデモク ラシーと良き統治を信じたが、最近見られた数百万人の反政府抗議行動者の 示すようにMorsy は国民の選択とはいえないものだった。
Morsi's downfall was not a Latin American style, or even a Turkish- style military intervention. The people wanted him and his Islamist henchmen out because the Brotherhood had abused its power. 大統領の凋落はラテンアメリカ諸国に見られるようなものとは異なるスタイ ルで、トルコに歴史的に見られた軍部の介入とも異なる。国民は大統領とム スリム同胞団を政権から追放することを望んだが、それは彼らの権力乱用の ためである。 ttp://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/07/06/the_peoples_coup The People's Coup Posted By Dov Zakheim Saturday, July 6, 2013 - 2:56 PM
A spokesman for Adli Mansour, the interim Egyptian president, said that no prime minister has been appointed yet, hours after the official news agency said Mohamed ElBaradei, the Nobel laureate turned opposition leader, was named to the post. No reason has been given for the confusion, but it is likely that ultraconservative Salafi Nour party has voiced strong objections to the choice of Mr ElBaradei, who is seen as a liberal. Nour had earlier made it clear it would not accept him as prime minister.
Jul 5 2013 The rally in Turkish stocks came to a halt in May. Erik Nielsen, chief economist at UniCredit, tells FT leader writer Ferdinando Giugliano why and the dilemma Istanbul faces of controlling its current account deficit while boosting growth (4m 45sec)
サンフランシスコ空港のアシアナ事故 ttp://www.kxlh.com/news/plane-crash-lands-in-san-francisco-2-dead-181-hospitalized/ Based on numbers provided by the San Francisco Fire Dept. and regional hospital officials, two people died and at least 181 others were taken to hospitals - including 49 who were seriously injured, ten of them critically including two small children. Victims' injuries included burns, broken bones and internal injuries.
CAIRO (Reuters) - An explosion hit an Egyptian pipeline on Saturday in the lawless Sinai peninsula following a series of attacks the last several days on security checkpoints, state TV and witnesses said. It was not immediately clear who was responsible for the pipeline and checkpoint attacks or if they were in reaction to the Egyptian army's overthrow of Islamist President Mohamed Mursi on Wednesday. Five security officers were killed at their checkpoints in Sinai on Friday and four other checkpoints were attacked on Saturday. シナイ半島では金曜日に5人の警察官が(テロリストに)殺され、土曜日に4人 が襲撃されている。
From the start there was a hope in the West that the Muslim Brotherhood’s ideological sides would soften when leaders were confronted with the real problems of governing. And it was a hope that looked like it might pan out when last November Morsi slid into the classic Egyptian role in the Middle East conflict when he brokered a ceasefire after an escalating conflict between Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood allies in Gaza, and Israel. This positive foreign policy role was one of the reasons why Europe and the United States held back criticism of Egyptian domestic policies even though Morsi’s authoritarian tendencies could hardly be overlooked. Until recently the Obama administration didn’t know what approach to take to the mass protests against Morsi. The superpower got itself into the position that both Morsi supporters and opponents believed the Americans were on the other side. That's called a lose-lose situation.
エジプト軍はこの動きに対抗してPort Said, Suez and Ismailiaなどでのムスリム同胞団の鎮圧 を計画している。しかしシナイ半島はイスラエルとエジプトの 1979平和協定の条項によって非 軍事化をきめているので、エジプト軍の展開にイスラエルの同意を要する。このためにシナイ半島 でのイスラミストの鎮圧はエジプト軍とイスラエルのコラボ作業になるが、これはオバマ政権に 新たな頭痛の種になるであろう
Full-scale Egyptian military operations in Sinai are dependent on Israel’s consent under the demilitarization clauses of their 1979 peace treaty. They would also be welcomed by Jerusalem which kept anti-terrorist forces parked on the Egyptian border from the time that the Muslim Brotherhood came to power a year ago. The crackdown on Islamist terrorists in Sinai will bring the collaboration between Egypt's military rulers and Israel out in the open and further complicate the Obama administration’s stance in relation to the new regime in Cairo.
ttp://jbpress.ismedia.jp/articles/-/38174 エジプトの最大の問題は経済ガソリンとパンの行列、 モルシ政権下で悪化した生活苦 2013.07.08(月) Financial Times By Michael Peel and Heba Saleh (2013年7月5日付 英フィナンシャル・タイムズ紙)
ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323368704578591124011036126.html REVIEW & OUTLOOK ASIA July 7, 2013, 12:54 p.m. ET South Korea's Kaesong Blunder Seoul agrees to reopen a source of cash for North Korea's dictator. 韓国の開城工業団地の再開という間違い 韓国国政府は北朝鮮の独裁者のキャッシュ・ソースを再開するというが --------------------------------------------------------------------------- *WSJは随分前から、開城工業団地を非難していて、アメリカはじめ国連安保理の決 めた北朝鮮の制裁決議への公然たる抜け穴であると言ってきたので、今回の南北交渉 での再開についても、従来と同じように非難している。これは国際的な北朝鮮の核開 発行為への制裁に違反し、北朝鮮の独裁者に外貨を手渡すだけではなく、韓国側の従 業員などを潜在的な人質にする愚かな行為だという。韓国政府もそういうことは解っ ているのだろうけれど、短期的に北朝鮮という泣き叫ぶ問題児に飴を与えて大人しく させる以外のアイデアを思いつかないように見えてナンセンスな政策が続行する。こ ういうのをキムチ・コメディとでも(ry
ttp://edition.cnn.com/2013/07/07/us/plane-crash-main/ NTSB: Pilots asked to do a 'go-around' 1.5 seconds before impact By Thom Patterson and Chelsea J. Carter, CNN July 7, 2013 -- Updated 2130 GMT (0530 HKT) SFCのアシアナ機事故:パイロットは衝突の1.5秒前に着陸のやり直しを要請
(CNN) -- The cockpit voice recorder of Asiana Airlines Flight 214 appears to show the pilots attempting to abort the landing just 1.5 seconds before it crashed at San Francisco International Airport, the National Transportation Safety Board chairman said Sunday. The pilots appear to have increased speed 7 seconds before impact, and they then "called to initiate a go-around 1.5 seconds to impact," Deborah Hersman said.
Winny登場した2000〜2001年当時はCPU、ハードディスクの性能も大したことの無い時代です。そんな時代にも関わらず ホストを使わず、短期間で100万ノードどころじゃない大規模Peer to Peer(P2P)ネットワークを構築 それも日本だけでなく海外にも利用者がいた世界的ネットワークをを作り上げてしまいました。
Perhaps, but it is hard not to be reminded of the politique du pire in other societies that underwent prolonged upheaval. Gen. Napoleon Bonaparte took power when, after several years of revolution, successive civilian regimes proved powerless to organize the country. His coup, in the words of one British scholar, was “a shabby compound of brute force and imposture,” but “was nevertheless condoned, nay applauded, by the French nation. Weary of revolution, men sought no more than to be wisely and firmly governed.”
According to intelligence reaching the military, a radical Islamist force - made up of a clandestine Muslim Brotherhood raider unit called El Giza Al Sidi, Sinai Bedouin Salafists linked to al Qaeda and the Palestinian Hamas - are conspiring to activate commando and missile units for sabotaging Suez shipping and the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean.
Hitting one ship transiting the canal or a single explosion at the pipeline would suffice to send world oil prices and insurance costs sky high. This armed Islamist coalition also plans a major campaign of terror against Israel. These concerns were underscored Sunday, July 7, when armed Salafists using at least 10 explosive devices blew up the Egyptian gas pipeline to Jordan rat a point south of El Arish in northern Sinai. The flow was brought to a halt. That night, the Israeli Counter-Terror Bureau strongly urged Israelis to avoid traveling to Sinai and travelers already there to leave at once amid a rising danger of attack and abduction.
The Egyptian military has been warned that the El Giza Al Sidi raiders have been directed by their Muslim Brotherhood masters to attack the Sumed oil pipeline, which starts at Ain Sukhna on the Gulf of Suez, runs 320 kilometers through the Western desert and ends at Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean coast south of Alexandria. (ry
China’s State Council made public a guideline from July 1 for changing financing policy over the weekend, which is nice because we wanted an excuse to go looking for a replacement for “Likonomics” anyway. It just doesn’t… snap. First, a summary of the guideline note from Nomura’s Zhiwei Zhang:
1) This note suggests the policy stance remains unchanged. The key message is unchanged from the State Council meeting on 19 June. It reiterated the government’s view that the economy is stable and its monetary policy stance should remain prudent. It also reiterated concerns over financial risks. Therefore, we maintain our view that credit and monetary growth will slow in coming months. 経済安定化を目指しマネタリ政策は慎重な(prudent)スタンスを維持
2) The objective of the note was to lay out guidelines to enhance the efficiency of credit growth without changing the policy stance. In other words, it was about changing the allocation of credit, not the policy stance. クレジットの効率向上を目指し、アロケーションの見なおしを進める
3) The government maintained its tough stance on industries that face overcapacity problems. The note asked banks not to give “any form of new financing” for projects in these industries that were not properly approved. We believe these industries may experience credit defaults in H2. 過剰生産設備の維持に金融機関の新規ローンを控えるように
4) The note mentioned there will be innovative way to invest FX reserves through commercial bank loans to facilitate corporate overseas expansion. This suggests a further diversification of international reserves from foreign government bonds. 国の外貨準備を商業銀行経由のローンとして企業の海外での拡大に
5) The note encourages private investment into the financial sector. It mentioned it would allow for “experimentation and allow private capital to set up banks and other financial institutions”. We do not think this will lead to a significant near-term change in the banking sector, but we do view it as a step in the right direction. プライベートキャピタルによる銀行などの実験的金融施策を容認
6) The regulation of wealth management products (WMP) will increase. The note mentioned each WMP will need to be matched with a real project; therefore, the “capital pool” practice will be terminated, which may lead to a decline of WMPs. ウェルスマネジメント金融商品の規制の強化
Xingdong Chen of BNP Paribas make the very good point that this seems to be “a preliminary version of [the] financial reform program, that we expect to be adopted at the 3rd plenum of the 18th Party Congress which is likely to be held in October this year” and it contains more detail than previously offered. We even get departments assigned per point.
ttp://edition.cnn.com/2013/07/07/us/plane-crash-main/ Pilot in deadly plane crash had no experience landing 777 in San Francisco By Chelsea J. Carter and Mike M. Ahlers, CNN July 8, 2013 -- Updated 0335 GMT (1135 HKT) アシアナ機事故のパイロットは777でサンフランシスコ空港に着陸の経験が無かった
The target air speed for the approach of the flight was 137 knots, and the crew can be heard on the cockpit voice recorder acknowledging the speed, Hersman said. But the speed was significantly below 137 knots, and "we are not talking about a few knots," she said. At about four seconds before the plane crash landed, the pilots received an "aural and physical" warning inside the cockpit that the plane was on the verge of an aerodynamic stall, meaning it was about to lose its ability to stay in the air. The warning -- known as a "stick shaker" -- included a verbal warning the plane that was flying too low and a physical warning when the throttle shook. South Korean and NTSB investigators will jointly question Lee Kang-gook, the pilot who was sitting in the captain's seat of Asiana Flight 214, on Monday, Choi Jeong-ho, the head of South Korean's Aviation Policy Bureau, said.
この数字についてのコメンタリー ttp://127.0.0.1:4474/top?6213976 Chinese consumer prices climbed 2.7% year-over-year (YoY) in June, beating expectations for a 2.5% rise. Meanwhile, producer prices fell 2.7%, more than expectations for a 2.6% fall. This compares with a 2.1% rise in consumer prices and a 2.9% fall in producer prices in May. Producer prices have been negative for 16 months and Bloomberg BRIEF economist Michael McDonough tweeted that this showed "tremendous slack in the manufacturing sector." We have previously reported that the excess capacity in Chinese industries has weighed on producer prices.
CLSA's Christopher Wood previously wrote that PPI "is as good an indicator as any of the deflationary excess capacity in the system, which is why local fund managers are fond of tracking the correlation between PPI and nominal GDP growth, and also more recently with the A share market." Meanwhile, the Ministry of Commerce reported that food prices jumped in June, driven by rising seafood and meat prices.
Writing in the Financial Times on 8 July, Mr Buck commented that this “marked a potentially dramatic turn in the high profile scandal” (although we note that it is a ‘turn’ which has yet to cause any visible reaction in bond markets). That said, Mr Barcenas is quoted as saying that he is presently unwilling to release all the information he possesses, claiming that: “In the current circumstances, the last thing that Spain needs is this government to fall”.
ttp://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia/2013/07/20137813412615531.html Leaked report shows Bin Laden's 'hidden life' Government report obtained exclusively by Al Jazeera reveals results of investigation into AQ chief's life on the run. Asad Hashim Last Modified: 08 Jul 2013 17:29
The Commission's 336-page report is scathing, holding both the government and the military responsible for "gross incompetence" leading to "collective failures" that allowed both Bin Laden to escape detection, and the United States to perpetrate "an act of war".
Moreover, through the testimony of Bin Laden's family members, intelligence officials and the wife of one of his couriers, the Commission was able to piece together a richly detailed image of Bin Laden's life on the run from authorities, including details on the secluded life that he and his family led in Abbottabad and elsewhere.