I don't have anything against Iowa's Republican caucusgoers. They're nice people, good Americans, conscientious and aware of their responsibilities as voters in the state's first-in-the-nation presidential primary. (Iowa Democratic caucusgoers are like this too.) But the Iowa Republican caucuses have a poor record in choosing their party's nominees. In the five presidential nominating cycles with active Iowa Republican caucus competition, the Hawkeye State has voted for the eventual Republican nominee only twice?in 1996 for Bob Dole, in 2000 for George W. Bush?and only once was the Iowa winner elected president. アイオワ州の共和党大会(予備選)についていえば、それは大統領選挙戦の最初の予備選なのだが、アイオワ州の共和党予備選 の選挙結果は、これまでのところ最終的な共和党候補とあまりよく一致していない。過去5回の予備選で、2回(ボブ・ドール 候補とW・ブッシュ候補)だけが一致していて、最終的に大統領となったのはW・ブッシュの場合だけである。これに比べて、 アイオワ州の民主党予備選の結果は遥かに良い的中率を示している。 One reason Iowa Democrats have been better prognosticators than Iowa Republicans is that more people participate in their caucuses. About twice as many people showed up for the Democratic precinct caucuses as for their Republican counterparts in 2008. In a state of three million people, a bare 119,000 Republicans showed up for the caucuses. Some 60% of them identified as evangelical or born-again Christians?a far higher percentage than in any presidential contest in any large non-Southern state that year. The small, skewed turnout resulted in a victory for Mike Huckabee, who ran ads identifying himself as a "Christian leader." アイオワ州の共和党予備選の結果がブレる一つの理由は、共和党大会への参加者の少なさで2008年には11.9万人である。この中 で60%程度がキリスト教再生派あるいは福音主義派のキリスト教徒で、この比率は非南部の比較的大きなどの州にもまして高い 値である。少数の共和党大会参加者が、バランスを欠いた形で参加しているので、ハッカビー候補の勝利の例のように「キリス ト教徒の指導者」を名乗る候補が選ばれたりする。(後略) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *アイオワ州の共和党大会・予備選の選挙結果があまりあてにならない事はアメリカ政治ウオッチャーには常識に属する事 だけれど、アメリカのメディアといえども必ずしもそれを踏まえた報道をしているわけではないので選挙アナリストの MICHAEL BARONEがその理由や事例を解説している。アイオワ州の共和党大統領候補の支持率(世論調査)を見ると、他の州 に比べて明確な差があるのだけれど、それはキリスト教の宗派との関係が強いといわれる。幾つかの州の共和党候補の支持 率についてのデータは→ ttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/ に解りやすいグラフが。
Tuesday, paring losses after a steep downswing in early trade on what analysts said were rumors ranging from the death of new North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to trading anomolies. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) closed down 0.79 percent at 1,842.02 points. The index briefly dipped as low as 2.33 percent during early trade when the rumors began circulating in the market, according to analysts, with the downturn exaggerated by low trading volume.(ry
ttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/12/14/799741/more-on-the-conflicted-isda-committee/ More on the conflicted Isda committee Posted by Lisa Pollack on Dec 14 17:10. (ISDA=nternational Swaps and Derivatives Association ) The International Swaps and Derivatives Association has a list of journalists who’ve been naughty or nice. They write about them on their Media Comment blog
The Panda Lobby, the pundits and policy wonks who want the US to imitate China’s state capitalism, has long celebrated what it claims to be China’s far sighted and effective approach to industrial policy. China, the Panda pundits tell us, will own the future because of its courageous subsidies to green technology and high speed rail. The meltdown of the Chinese solar industry has been widely reported; now comes word that the rail program is also in trouble. アメリカ国内の親中国勢力(パンダ・ロビー)は、アメリカが中国の国家資本主義を真似るべきだといってきて、特に中国 の産業政策の効率性を言い募ってきた。親中国の専門家や評論家ら(パンダ・プンディット)はアメリカも中国のように、 グリーンテクノロジー産業や高速鉄道事業への国家支援を行うべきとしてきた。最近では中国の太陽光パネル産業のメルト ダウンが広く伝えられ、、今度は高速鉄道建設計画の見直しのニュースが報じられた。
From the Wall Street Journal:WSJの記事 The railway ministry had a rough 2011: Top ministry officials were ousted on corruption charges; technical snafus marred the opening of its signature Beijing-Shangai bullet line; and July’s grisly train collision crushed government confidence its technology was the new global standard. Spending on rail will fall 42 percent from projected levels, and the priority looks to shift from gee-whiz high speed bullet trains to the expansion of China’s overstretched freight network. 中国鉄道省は2011年に様々の問題を抱え、大臣が汚職で更迭され北京上海高速鉄道の技術的な混乱が報じられ、7月の高速鉄道 の追突事件は中国の鉄道が新たなグローバルスタンダードになる(=積極的な輸出攻勢を展開する)というう政府の自信を揺る がせるものとなった。鉄道の建設予算は予定から42%減少し、優先順位は高速鉄道から能力限界に達している貨物輸送の強化に シフトしている。
A stern and dignified silence, followed by a swift change of subject, is what the secret pundit manual recommends for situations like this one. We shall see. あの専門家たちはきっと、威厳を保って沈黙を守り、話題をさっさと転換するというのがこういう場合の対処マニュアルらすい けど、それがまた見られそうな悪寒
673 : 日出づる処の名無し : 2011/10/20(木) 17:36:25.43 ID:DXC7qNrt [1/2回発言] >>626 WHOによるチェルノブイリ健康被害調査報告書(2006) ttp://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs303/en/index.html Reproductive and hereditary effects and children's health 生殖および遺伝への影響と子供の健康 Given the low radiation doses received by most people exposed to the Chernobyl accident, no effects on fertility, numbers of stillbirths, adverse pregnancy outcomes or delivery complications have been demonstrated nor are there expected to be any. A modest but steady increase in reported congenital malformations in both contaminated and uncontaminated areas of Belarus appears related to improved reporting and not to radiation exposure. チェルノブイリ事故に遭遇した多くの人間が浴びたような低い放射線量では、出生率・死産数・出生異常・出産合併症などへの 影響はみられず、将来的にみられるという予測も成り立たなかった。先天性奇形は、ベラルーシの汚染地域・非汚染地域の 両方でそれほど多くはないものの確かに増加しているが、これは、みたところ報告体制が改善したことによるものであり、被曝には 関係がないようだ。
イランの国営通信によるとラヒーミー第一副大統領は、米国など海外の国がイランの原油輸出に制裁を課したならば、 ホルムズ海峡からの原油の流れが滞るだろうと述べた。 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/27/us-iran-oil-hormuz-idUSTRE7BQ0I320111227 Iran warns could stop oil flow if sanctions: IRNA TEHRAN | Tue Dec 27, 2011 9:45am EST
(Reuters) - Iran's first vice-president warned on Tuesday that the flow of crude will be stopped from the crucial Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf if foreign sanctions are imposed on its oil exports, the country's official news agency reported. "If they (the West) impose sanctions on Iran's oil exports, then even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz," IRNA quoted Mohammad Reza Rahimi as saying. 「もし西欧諸国がイランの石油輸出に制裁を課すのであれば、たとえ一滴の石油たりともホルムズ海峡を出ることはないだろう」 とMohammad Reza Rahimi第一副大統領が述べた。イラン国営通信、IRNAが伝えた(ロイター)
クリスマス・ミサの教会に爆弾攻撃を仕掛けた「ナイジェリアのタリバン」であるBoko Haramについて、フォーリンポリシー Boko Haramが南部に展開すればナイジェリアが内戦に陥る危険性が高いという --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/12/27/the_rise_of_boko_haram?page=0,0 The Rise of Boko Haram Why the Christmas Day bombings in Nigeria could be the harbinger of much worse to come. BY DAVID FRANCIS | DECEMBER 28, 2011 ナイジェリアのBoko Haramの台頭 BY DAVID FRANCIS フォーリンポリシー
Ero said she believed Boko Haram violence could be contained to the north, and that civil war could be averted if Jonathan becomes more proactive in dealing with the militant group. But she warned, "Any incursion by Boko Haram into the south would lead to a situation of serious violence and security concerns for Nigeria."
This incursion now seems increasingly inevitable as radical Islamic elements of Boko Haram cement control over the group. With each successful attack, the group gains more confidence. The worst of all possible outcomes may not be long in coming: attacks against civilians in the south, a heavy-handed Army response up north, with Delta militants declaring war and moving north in an offensive against Boko Haram.
ピーターソン国際経済研究所(PIIE)の評論で2012年のユーロの展望。個人的には、思ったよりは楽観的なシナリオ を描いているように思えるけれど。ユーロ圏のフィシカル・インテグレーションのシンメトリカルな深化とともに ユーロボンド導入によって安定化ヘの展望がひらけるだろうという。 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.piie.com/realtime/?p=2601 Thinking About the Euro in 2012 by Jacob Funk Kirkegaard | December 22nd, 2011 | 11:43 am
・・・・ In sum, 2012 will undoubtedly be yet another volatile year for the euro. But crisis management will likely improve and the catastrophic tail-end events will gradually disappear from the minds of most.
The major political challenge for the euro area in 2012 will thus not be to address the immediate crisis, but rather the longer-term direction of institutional reform. During 2012, the euro area is likely to see a new and considerably more credible set of fiscal rules and budget oversight regulation. This has been a clear and understandable demand from the ECB and Germany. But while the new fiscal compact will undoubtedly help stabilize the euro area, it must not serve as the end of the institutional reforms needed by the region. The movement toward further and symmetrical deepening of euro area fiscal integration must be maintained. There should consequently also be concrete steps taken on a reasonable timetable toward the introduction of eurobonds.
Would China ever "cut the cord" on its ally? While such a radical strategic change does not appear to be imminent, several factors suggest the moment may be closer than commonly believed. 中朝の同盟関係の将来の戦略みなおしを示唆する要素として、以下の3つがある
First, fraternal party-to-party relations between the two ostensibly Communist countries are not what they used to be. Chinese leaders have been conspicuous in offering their condolences to Pyongyang at Kim Jong Il's death, and have given Kim Jong Eun their blessing as the successor. But beneath a facade of comity, the Chinese Communist Party and the Korean Workers Party have followed widely divergent paths since the 1970s. While the CCP shifted focus to ensuring rapid economic growth and China's global influence, the KWP became a vehicle chiefly for ensuring the Kim family's dynastic succession. 中国共産党と北朝鮮労働党の関係の変化。かってのようなイデオロギー的一致が保証されなくなっていている。金ファミリー の王朝の継承に依る権力の継承は共産主義イデオロギーと上手くマッチしない。中国は公的にはファミリー内権力継承を支持 しているが、イデオロギー的には本心からではない
Second, Beijing must inevitably recognize that the "stability" it prizes in the Kim regime is a self-constructed mirage. Kim Jong Eun may manage to fully consolidate power, with active Chinese assistance. And for now the regime in Pyongyang has kept the country hermetically sealed to any whiff of rebellion. But Pyongyang will eventually have to do something about the economy, if only to provide a minimum level of sustenance to its people. Crucially, any attempt at economic reform will risk disadvantaging the very elites?military, police, party?on whom Kim Jong Eun will rely for support. 中国から見て、北朝鮮経済がこの先維持できる為には改革開放が必要であるが、そうした変革を北朝鮮は望まず、経済体制の 改革は体制の不安定化を意味すると捕らえるが、こうした経済へのアプローチの違いが中朝間の意見の不一致の一つ
Third, China's longer term aspirations as a world power may push it to reconsider its policies as a whole toward its three most important Asian allies: North Korea, Pakistan and Burma. All three are failed states, although Burma is at least belatedly attempting some limited reforms. Meanwhile the fact that the other two allies are irresponsible nuclear powers leads other powers, such as the U.S., to put increasing pressure on Beijing to keep the two under control. At some point, disagreements with other countries over North Korea and Pakistan may start to obstruct China's pursuit of its own aims. 中国のアジア長期政策は、北朝鮮、ミャンマー、パキスタンとの同盟関係の維持拡大であったが、この3つの国は失敗国家。 しかもそれら同盟国は核保有によってアメリカとの緊張対立を高めつつ有る。アメリカの中国への圧力はこれらの同盟国の 核について中国のより強い管理を要求するが、それはパキスタンや北朝鮮の反発を招く(後略)
中国の不動産バブルは破裂しているようだという China’s housing bubble appears to be imploding, steel production is falling along with the demand for new construction and real estate developers are tottering, putting banks at risk.
NYTは中国経済が不透明な段階にきたため、これ以上の世界全体の経済悪化を助長するようなことをアメリカ政府はすべ きでないという。具体的にはアメリカ議会の中国の通貨操作への罰則対応や太陽光パネルなどのダンピング輸出について WTOに提訴するなどは賢くないという The Obama administration must also act with care. It is justified in challenging illegal trade practices, including pursuing its case at the World Trade Organization against illegal subsidies of Chinese makers of solar panels. But it should act multilaterally, including mustering other countries to add to the pressure on Beijing to act by the rules. Unilateral initiatives, like those in Congress to punish China for its cheap currency, are likely to cause more harm than good. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *相変わらずのプロ中国姿勢で呆れるけれど、そのNYTでさえ、中国経済がヤバメというのは認めざるをえない(国内メディ アと異なって)
北米大陸の未開発石油資源は1.7兆バレル、150年分です Consider this. Total recoverable oil in North America exceeds 1.7 trillion barrels, which is more oil than the entire world has used over the last 150 years. And that amount alone could meet the energy needs of the United States for the next 250 years. An estimated 1.4 trillion of those barrels are buried under American soil. For some perspective: the total proven reserves in Saudi Arabia is just about 260 billion barrels.
未開発天然ガスは4244兆キュービック・フィートで175年分です The stats on domestic natural gas are also eye-opening. Recoverable natural gas in North America is estimated at 4.2 quadrillion ? or 4,244 trillion ? cubic feet. At the current rate of consumption, that’s enough natural gas to power North America for the next 175 years. And it means that our continent has more robust gas reserves than Russia, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkmenistan ? combined. Roughly 272.5 trillion cubic feet of that total are in the United States. And production is going up so rapidly that liquified natural gas (LNG) import terminals are being reversed engineered to export surplus U.S. gas.
石炭は、後500年分 Then there is coal, the most plentiful of all. North America has over 497 billion tons of recoverable coal. That’s three time the total reserves of Russia ? which, up to this point, has been the world’s second largest source of coal. Such reserves could power the United States for the next 500 years.
これだけの資源があっても充分開発されていないのは環境問題についての政府の規制ためで、今のような未曾有の失業率の高さ や経済低迷の時にあっては政策を見直すべきであります Affordable energy is the lifeblood of a vibrant economy. As IER’s report shows, this country is blessed with huge and diverse resources whose potential awaits a new philosophy from the current White House. The private sector has already developed the technology to tap into these resources, and many Americans are desperate for the economic opportunities that would spring from new projects. All that we need now is for government regulators to take a long hard look in the mirror and reverse course. It is high time for America to make good on its energy potential.
[東京 28日 ロイター] 米財務省が27日に公表した半年に一度議会に提出している「国際経済と外国為替に関する 報告書」で、日本が8月以降に実施した単独での為替介入について「支持しなかった」と明記したことに対して、政府・ 日銀は表向き静観の姿勢だ。ただ米国は事実上のドル安政策を続ける公算が大きいとみられ、日本が国益と対米関係の微妙 なバランスを求められる状況に変わりはなく、年明け以降も難しい政策判断を迫られる局面がありそうだ(ry ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *この、アメリカ政府・財務省の、日本の為替介入批判について、WSJアジア版の準社説、レビュー&アウトルック ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204720204577126083601732336.html DECEMBER 28, 2011, 11:30 A.M. ET Criticizing the Yen Again:Washington should try taking its own advice on currency policy. 米国財務省の日本の為替介入批判:財務省は、日本への助言をむしろ自らに向けるべきでは
*対ドルでの円の高騰は、日米のマネタリ政策の乖離、金利差が大きい。それはマネタリ的に米国の「弱いドル政策」の結果 とも言えるわけであって・・ As Richard Katz wrote in these pages in November, U.S. interest rates have a strong impact on the yen exchange rate: Low rates in the U.S. encourage Japanese to return more of the money they would otherwise invest in dollar assets. So pardon Tokyo for doing what it can to try to stabilize the yen-dollar rate in the face of Washington's persistent weak-dollar policy.
*米国財務省は日本に対して為替政策ではなく、経済ファンダメンタルズの強化、成長促進によって問題を解決すべきよいう のだが、むしろその処方箋は米国経済にこそ必要ではないか "Rather than reacting to domestic 'strong yen' concerns by intervening to try to influence the exchange rate, [the government] should take fundamental and thoroughgoing steps to increase the dynamism of the domestic economy, increase the competitiveness of . . . firms?including those in utilities and services?and raise potential growth." So said Treasury in the strongest sentence of its rebuke to Japan. Substitute "dollar" for "yen" in that sentence, and Washington has a pretty good policy prescription for itself.
*1984年のイランによるホルムズ海峡封鎖事件 Iran last tried to disrupt and sabotage Gulf shipping during its decade-long conflict with Iraq, when the Arab Gulf states were funding Saddam Hussein's war effort. When Iraq began attacking Iranian tankers in 1984, Iran responded by targeting vessels headed to and from Gulf ports. And it began a guerrilla war at sea - laying mines in shipping lanes. That led the U.S. to provide military escorts for Kuwaiti shipping. In 1988, an Iranian mine damaged and nearly sank the USS Samuel B. Roberts, prompting U.S. President Ronald Reagan to order retaliatory strikes against Iranian oil platforms and naval vessels. Two platforms - Sirri and Sassan - were destroyed and an Iranian warship sunk in Operation Praying Mantis.
*もしイランが海峡封鎖作戦を行うとすれば Today, after decades of sanctions, Iran does not have the naval power to block the Strait, and its ageing air force would be no match for U.S. and Gulf fighter jets. But military experts say Iran could wage "asymmetrical warfare" - involving mines and attacks by Revolutionary Guards' patrol boats. It has also developed a class of small submarines, three of which were launched last month, according to the Iranian naval commander quoted by the Fars news agency.
*ミスカリキュレーションの可能性 Even so, analysts worry that the deterioration in U.S.-Iranian relations could magnify the consequences of a collision or provocation in the Gulf. Shortly before retiring as Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen said: "If something happens, it's virtually assured that we won't get it right, that there will be miscalculations which would be extremely dangerous in that part of the world."
The Obama administration is trying to assure Israel privately that it would strike Iran militarily if Tehran’s nuclear program crosses certain “red lines”?while attempting to dissuade the Israelis from acting unilaterally. Eli Lake reports exclusively. オバマ政権はイスラエルに対して、もしイランの核開発計画が特定の「レッドライン」を超えるなら攻撃を行うと確約し その一方でイスラエルのユニラテラルな行動を制止しようとしている。
The sensitive work of trying to get both allies on the same page intensified this month. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak visited Washington last week to go over Iran issues; and the undersecretary of state for political affairs, Wendy Sherman, and a special arms control adviser to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Robert Einhorn, were in Israel last week to discuss Iran as well. Panetta for his own part has revised his tone on the question of Iran’s nuclear program, telling CBS News last week that the United States was prepared to use force against Iran to stop the country from building a nuclear weapon. 米国とイスラエルの戦略を一致させるための努力が続いている。イスラエル防衛相のEhud Barakは先週ワシントンを訪問し 国務省次官のWendy Shermanやヒラリー国務長官の特別アドバイザーのRobert Einhornと会談してイラン問題を議論している。 CBSニュースは国防長官の発言としての核開発阻止の攻撃の検討を伝えている
All the while, secret sabotage initiatives like a computer worm known as Stuxnet that infected the Siemens-made logic boards at the Natanz centrifuge facility in Iran, continued apace. New U.S. estimates say that Stuxnet delayed Iran’s nuclear enrichment work by at most a year, despite earlier estimates that suggested the damage was more extensive. この一方でStuxnetをつかうなどコンピュータワームによるイランのNatanz濃縮施設への攻撃が行われていて、このワームは イランの核開発を1年遅らせたと米国は評価している
Henry Sokolski, the executive director the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, said “You don’t propose and go about doing an oil embargo unless you are serious about taking the next step, and the next step for the administration is clearly some form of military action, and people who have left the administration like Dennis Ross have made it clear that this is precisely what’s on this administration’s mind.” 核不拡散政策教育センターのHenry Sokolskiは「イランの石油輸出禁止の制裁政策というのは、次のステップについてのシア リアスな検討を抜きにして提案されるものではない」という。「政府にとって次のステップというのは明らかに何らかの軍事 行動である。退職した高官のDennis Ross などが、そういう考えが政府にあると明確にしている」
Complicating matters, the Dec. 2 remarks also came at the same time a high-level delegation of Israeli diplomats, military officers and intelligence officials were in Washington for an annual meeting called the strategic dialogue. At the meeting, the Israeli side offered a new presentation on Iran’s nuclear program suggesting that Iran’s efforts to build secret reactors for producing nuclear fuel were further along than the United States has publicly said. Some of the intelligence was based on soil samples collected near the suspected sites.
(12-28) 08:14 PST DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) -- A spokeswoman for the U.S. Navy's 5th fleet is warning Iran that any disruption of traffic flowing though the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil route, "will not be tolerated." "Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated," said Fleet spokeswoman Lt. Rebecca Rebarich. She said the U.S. Navy is "always ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation." ttp://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2011/12/28/international/i081431S62.DTL
Ahmadinejad’s rhetoric is likely about domestic politics. But with uncertainty over who would really control Iran's nuclear weapons, don’t assume Israel will take a chance.
*イランが宗教的狂気からイスラエルを核攻撃して中東に新たな全面戦争を引き起こすほどに基地外であるのか?について So, would Iran continue to escalate a potential crisis or would calmer heads prevail? It’s evident that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the entire security establishment define foreign policy objectives in conservative rather than revolutionary terms. A nuclear-armed Iran would project its power and continue to act as the anti-status quo power in the region, but is unlikely to seek war. イランの核武装はむしろ、最高指導者ハメネイ師と軍事エスタブリッシュメントの中東地域での覇権の追求とプロパガンダ 誇示が目的でイスラエルとの戦争が目的であるとは思えない
*イランが対イスラエルで先制的に自殺的な核攻撃を行う可能性は殆ど無いが、冷戦時の米ソの核対立のように核武装を管理 することは重要で、事故やミスカリキュレーションを防ぐ必要があるのだが、イランの管理能力は疑問が残る While there’s little reason to believe Iran would choose self-annihilation through offensive use of a nuclear weapon, the issue of command and control presents several troubling questions. Who would have the authority to order the use of Iranian nuclear weapons? How could the Iranian regime assure even itself that accidental or unauthorized use wouldn’t be possible?(ry
*一方イスラエルは特殊工作部隊を使うような手法でイランの核開発阻止のためにあらゆる手法を使うであろうし、国家存続 上の切迫した危機が発生した場合は軍事オプションを含む全ての手段を使うであろう Israel is already believed by many to be engaged in a high-stakes covert war against Iran, employing a sustained campaign of sabotage, targeted assassinations of top Iranian nuclear and missile scientists, and possible deploying the most sophisticated cyber-warfare weapon ever used. With the revelation of a major rift at the highest levels of the Israeli national security establishment over the supposedly imminent use of preventative force against the Iranian program, it’s clear that Israel intends to use any and all means to keep itself from facing an existential threat from a sworn enemy.
One lesson to bear in mind when contemplating a nuclear arms race in the Middle East is that the history of human conflict is overpopulated with hostilities initiated by pride, fear, miscalculation, unintended escalation, and any number of non-rational forces. To expect that the blooming crisis between Iran and Israel will be any different is an exercise in wishful thinking in a region that offers few reasons for it.
(Kimo Quaintance is a professor at the University of the German Federal Armed Forces. Bernd Kaussler is a Professor at James Madison University.)
今回 前回 総利回り 7.42 4.52 割り当て価格 76.75 89.13 応札総額 1.584 1.659 bln 落札総額 0.803 0.995 bln 応札倍率 1.97 1.667 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/29/us-italy-bonds-auction-idUSTRE7BS08Q20111229 Italy bond yields fall, 10-year not far from record high MILAN | Thu Dec 29, 2011 5:40am EST
(Reuters) - Italian bond yields fell from recent record highs at auction on Thursday but cautious investors still demanded a near 7 percent yield to buy 10-year paper, a level seen unsustainable over time for the euro zone third-largest economy. An injection of longer-term liquidity from the European Central Bank and a new Italian budget package this month have eased pressure on shorter-term debt, but longer-dated bonds still pose a challenge for Italy ahead of large redemptions early next year.
Italy raised around 7 billion euros on Thursday in thin holiday markets after a well-bid short-term debt auction on Wednesday. The Treasury had planned to sell between 5 billion and 8.5 billion euros of bonds. On Thursday, Italy paid 5.62 percent to sell new three-year debt -- a much lower yield compared to a euro lifetime high of 7.89 percent paid only a month ago. The fall in the three-year yield comes after the bill sale on Wednesday saw six-month funding costs halve from a month earlier.
MADRID (MarketWatch) -- European stock markets pared earlier gains on Thursday after mixed results from the auction of Italian longer-dated government bonds. Yields on three and 10-year debt fell as Italy sold ?7.017 billion ($9.07 billion) in the auction, against a top aim of ?8.5 billion.(ry
The problem in Europe is that we’ve arrived at Europe’s own “Lehman-moment” when banks and institutions are wholly unwilling to lend money to anyone, anywhere. They are willing to draw down their lines of credit from the ECB, but they are re-depositing those borrowings back to the ECB itself. Initially we thought this reasonable. Initially we thought that the banks drew down their lines from the Central Bank and re-deposited them with the Bank awaiting investment elsewhere. We thought this normal. Now, however, we consider it disconcerting for it shows the utter sense of confusion and the even more utter sense of fear that has engulfed the banking system in Europe. Rather than viewing these new credit lines from the ECB as a source of funding for investment, the banks in Europe are viewing those ECB-created funds as a source of “fear capital” to be used should worst-come to-worse on the continent. Fear rather than optimism is driving the banking system.
We fear then that worse is about to happen, for the very core of things banking and economic depend upon trust and trust is now wholly lacking in Europe. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ *こういう動きは欧州の銀行が、この先より悪い事態の来ることに備えるもので、恐怖に取り憑かれた銀行システムが 機能不全に陥っているのだ、という。それは先行き見通しへの大変悪い兆候で・・・
When Mao died in 1976, my father invited his best friend to our home, closed the door tightly, and opened the only bottle of wine we had. The next day, my parents took me to the public memorial service where we wore black armbands. Many people cried as if they were heartbroken. As a little girl, I was confused by the adults' expressions?everybody looked so sad in public, while my father was so happy the night before.
ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204720204577125943307956180.html DECEMBER 29, 2011, 11:24 A.M. ET The Wrong Tax for Japan By RICHARD KATZ Noda is failing to convince voters that punishing consumption makes economic sense. 日本の誤った増税計画:野田首相は増税で消費を罰することが優れた経済政策と有権者を説得することに失敗中 By RICHARD KATZ WSJ 29日
Supporters claim an early tax hike is urgently needed for Japan to avert Greece's fate. Such threats ring hollow. While Japan does suffer a structural budget deficit, most of the recent big leap in the deficit is related to the post-Lehman-shock recession, which decreased revenues while increasing demands on the public purse. Projected tax revenue for fiscal 2012 is still 17% below the pre-recession peak. 日本がギリシャにならないために増税が必要とか言っているのだけれど、最近の日本の財政状況の悪化はリーマンショック後 の税収の落ち込みが充分回復していない事による。2012年度税収(予定)は未だにリセッション前のピークから17%低い
More importantly, Japan finances 95% of its deficit domestically. The countries in Europe that have run into crisis are the ones that have huge foreign debts. In the decade prior to the debt crisis, Greece and Portugal borrowed an average of 10% of GDP per year to finance their current-account deficits. This left them vulnerable to capital flight when times turned bad. より重要なことは日本の財政赤字は95%が国内でファイナンスされていることで危機に陥っている欧州諸国のように対外の赤字 を抱えているわけではないことである。ギリシャやポルトガルは平均して毎年GDPの10%の資金を経常赤字の埋め合わせのため に借りている。これがそれらの国を資本逃避のリスクについて脆弱にさせている
The more relevant European comparison for Japan would be Belgium. Belgium's net government debt-to-GDP ratio has been about 100% for two decades?a level Japan just hit recently. But, like Japan, Belgium runs a current-account surplus, leaving it with sufficient resources at home to finance its deficit. No one is worried about a Belgian debt crisis. 状況が日本に近い欧州の国をあげるならベルギーであろう。ベルギーのGDP比の政府赤字は子の20年間、100%くらいであって それは日本の最近の値に近い。日本と同じようにベルギーは経常黒字国であるので、国内で赤字を十分にファイナンス出来る。 ベルギーに金融危機が起こると思っている人はいない(後略)
As this occurs, one institution ? the International Monetary Fund ? will attract special attention. The key question is whether it can finally step up to the role of global conductor, rather than suffering yet more erosion of its credibility. ・・・・ What is required goes beyond enlightened restraint on the part of European leaders. The IMF must find the courage to resist European bullying; and the rest of the world must help by making a collective effort to accelerate reform of the institution’s governance and representation. Only then would an enhanced IMF be able to help the global economy back to growth and jobs. (*注 bullying【名】〔繰り返される〕弱い者いじめ)
ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204791104577110163558996698.html OPINION EUROPEDECEMBER 29, 2011 Britain's Future Lies With America, Not Europe Welcoming Britain back into the North Atlantic economic community would be a win-win for all involved. 英国の未来はアメリカと共にあるのであって、欧州と共にではない Murray & Bennett, WSJ
However, in the less official corners of the PRC press, a more nuanced discourse about North Korea is taking place. Despite what is published in China's major official media outlets, like Xinhua, or English-language venues like Global Times and China Daily, many heavyweight Chinese intellectuals and foreign-policy makers have been airing the views in more niche publications that North Korea is both untrustworthy and unstable. 環球時報やチャイナディリー(英語版)では中国の知識人や外交政策立案者らが北朝鮮への、不安定で信用できない国 という見方を報じている
Why is there a discrepancy between what is presented to foreigners about China's stance on North Korea, and the way that the Chinese themselves discuss the issue? 何故こういう矛盾する報道姿勢が出てくるのか?
One answer lies in the old Communist notion of united front. Disagreements between Beijing and Pyongyang may have festered for decades, but don't get aired publicly due to a concern that they would weaken the alliance. The leaders in Pyongyang take the same approach, projecting an image of socialist brotherhood with China to the outside and then continually surprising the Chinese with things like nuclear tests near their border and using the frontier as a transit point for illegal drug exports. Both China and North Korea maintain a willingness to privately despise and disparage their alliance while remaining publicly riveted into it. 一つの答えは古くからの共産主義の統一戦線という考え方で、北朝鮮との同盟の維持が必要というもの。
But perhaps one television shot from the funeral best illustrates the schizophrenia of the Chinese read on North Korea. As the feed showed Kim Jong Un walking beside his father's immense hearse, a foreign CCTV English-language news anchor asked his Chinese colleague to describe the meaning of the wailing of the crowds of North Korean mourners. The analyst paused, then neatly summed up the ambivalent Chinese attitude toward North Korea: "I think it means they love their leader, and they are ready for a change." Whether the Chinese will now actively assist in that change remains to be seen, but at least they're starting to talk about it publically -- at least among themselves. (*注:schizophrenia【名】統合失調症) 結局のところ中国では、今や伝統的な対北朝鮮政策の変化の可能性について、そういうものが実現するかは今後の話であるが (従来はタブーであった)そういう議論を行うようにはなってきたということであろう。
As Islamists emerge from elections as the country’s leading political force ? to the alarm of democracy campaigners and regional autocrats alike ? western governments will have to adapt to a power shift they have long sought to prevent エジプトの選挙で宗教勢力が主要政治勢力として台頭している。中東の独裁者や民主化推進勢力にとっては警鐘である。 西欧諸国は、これまで長きにわたって、それを防ぐことが出来ると思ってきたが、この権力のシフトに適応しなくては ならない。
“The foreseeable future is Islamist ? this much we know. It’s just a reality that people have to come to terms with,” says Shadi Hamid of the Brookings Doha Center. “People want to see Islam play a larger role in political life and liberals are going to have to learn to speak the language of religion and stop being the anti-Islamist choice.” ドーハのブルッキングス研究所(シンクタンク)のShadi Hamidは「予見し得る近未来はイスラミストによるものである。 それは避けがたいことで人はそのリアリティに直面せざるを得ない」「人々はイスラムが政治により大きな役割を担うこ とを期待する。リベラル勢力は反イスラミストの姿勢は捨てて、宗教的スピークを勉強しなくてはならない」(後略) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *中東や北アフリカの独裁者の時代が終わって、社会と民衆が先祖返りしているだけという見方もあるけど。アタチェルク の才能によって奇跡的な世俗化を果たしたトルコにさえ最近は(ry
State Date (Delegates)党大会期日(代表数)RCP Average ------------------------------------------------------------ National全米平均 Gingrich +1.8 Iowaアイオワ州 Jan 3 (28) Tie New Hampshireニューハンプシャー州 Jan 10 (12) Romney +19.7 South Carolinaサウスカロライナ州 Jan 21 (25) Gingrich +16.0 Floridaフロリダ州 Jan 31 (50) Gingrich +18.2
1. DO NOT INTERFERE WITH YOUR OPPONENT WHEN HE IS ENGAGED IN THE ACT OF DESTROYING HIMSELF. あなたの政敵が自滅的な行為に及んでいる時には、干渉せずそのままにせよ (大統領が失敗した経済政策について弁護したり追加政策を発表している時は何もせずに生暖かく見守るのが最善、攻撃 は必ずしも得策ともいえない)
2. FOCUS ON THE PRESIDENT’S DISMAL RECORD 大統領の失敗した公約・実績にフォーカスしてキャンペーンせよ
3. TOTAL VICTORY IS PREFERABLE TO DISEMBOWELMENT 最終的勝利が割腹自殺よりは良い(無党派層を取り込む勝利のためには感情を抑え過激主義に走ることを控えるべき) Too many conservatives, including myself, come to Congress believing there is something noble about charging up a hill into a blaze of gunfire. Conservative talk radio hosts and bloggers encourage this mindset by delivering a daily dose of right wing rhetoric that would work well if candidates were engaged in a perpetual primary campaign somewhere in northern Utah. But that is not where national elections are won. Instead of calling Obama names or comparing political opponents to Joseph Stalin, Republican presidential candidates must learn to persuade swing voters in Bucks County, Pa., Tampa, Fla. and Columbus, Ohio.
今週号のエコノミストの北朝鮮評論 ------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.economist.com/node/21542185 North Korea after Kim Jong Il We need to talk about Kim Regime change in the worst country on earth should be planned for, not just hoped for Dec 31st 2011 | from the print edition 金正日後の北朝鮮、我々は政権の交代を希望するのでは無く計画すべきである 12月31日号 エコノミスト
This presents China with a conundrum. The strategists in Beijing have propped up the regime both because they fear instability on their border and even more because they worry about a unified Korea, perhaps with American troops hard up against the Chinese frontier for the first time in over 60 years. Their dilemma is that whatever they do, North Korea will eventually collapse. On the one hand, the lack of reform is leading North Korea down a dead end. On the other, a more open country would surely spell the end of the Kim dynasty. It is why Kim Jong Il never blessed change, no matter how many times the Chinese showed him their economic miracle. *中国は北朝鮮政権を支えてきたが経済改革なき北朝鮮の先行きはお先真っ暗であり、北朝鮮の開放化は金王朝の存続と 両立しない。いずれにせよ北朝鮮の体制は行き詰まりで、いずれ崩壊せざるを得ない。体制の崩壊は周辺地域を含む混乱 を生むから我々は政権交代について計画すべきなのだが、米中韓日は、そういう計画には乗り気ではない。
But the Kims cannot survive for ever. The sooner a dialogue begins about how to replace them, the better?not just for the stability of the region, but also for North Korea’s forgotten and downtrodden people. *それでも、金王朝が続くことは長くは無いであろうから周辺諸国は準備をすべきである ------------------------------------------------------------- *言いたいことはわかるけど現実論としては如何? 体制崩壊は、中国経済の大混乱でもあれば起こり得るだろうが・・
No questions on immigration, no questions on Iran or Iraq or Afghanistan or Israel or North Korea -- global trouble spots the GOP candidates have been queried about repeatedly. Moreover, he was not asked about what spending cuts he would make to reduce the deficit, nothing about Medicare and Social Security reform or his health care law, all familiar questions for the Republicans seeking his job.
The waterway may be an economic chokehold, but it is also a vital passage for Iran’s survival. The Islamic Republic is not only the world’s third-largest exporter of oil. Because of decades of mismanagement, it is also a voracious consumer of imported gasoline: Iran must import 40% of the refined petroleum it needs not only to run its automobiles, but also to power its factories and extract oil. To close the Strait of Hormuz even for a day would do far more damage to the Iranian economy than it would to the West. ホルムズ海峡の海上輸送はイラン経済にとっても死活的に重要で、例えばイランはガソリンなどの石油精製品の40%を輸入に 頼っており、それがなくては自動車のみならず工場の操業や油田の運用にさえ差し支える。ホルムズ海峡を一日でも封鎖すれ ば西側諸国よりもイランの経済に悪影響が大きい
The Islamic Republic’s goal may still be more financial than military. Iran’s economy is teetering. In the past nine months, Iran’s currency has lost a third of its value against the dollar. Unemployment and inflation are both in the double digits. To keep afloat, Iran needs high oil prices. Should the price of oil fall below $80 per barrel, even the brutal Revolutionary Guards may not be able to maintain domestic stability for long. They know that by simply threatening tanker traffic, they can drive up the price of oil, adding hundreds of millions of dollars to their coffers. イランの目的は軍事的と言うより金融的であろう。過去9ヶ月でイランの通貨は対ドルで三分の一減価し、失業率とインフレ率 は共に二桁である。経済を助ける為に、イランは高い原油価格を必要とする。原油価格がバレルあたり$80を下回ると革命防衛 隊といえども国内を長く平穏に保つことはできないだろう。彼らはこれを知っているので、ホルムズ海峡の封鎖を言い原油価格 を釣り上げて国家収入を確保したい。
Should Tehran really want to strike a blow at the West, their target would not be the Strait. While Iranian small boats, mines and anti-ship missiles can harass international shipping, American firepower is overwhelming. The United States always maintains one or two aircraft carrier strike groups in the Persian Gulf or just outside in the Sea of Oman. Whether by chance or design, the U.S. Navy will soon have three aircraft carriers in the vicinity of Iran. Two ? the USS Carl Vinson and USS Abraham Lincoln ? turned around after full deployments last year in near record time. There are no Iranian boats or planes which the U.S. military does not monitor 24/7. イランが西欧諸国を本気で攻撃したいならば、ホルムズ海峡は適切ではない。彼らの小型ボートや魚雷や対艦ミサイルは航行 を阻害するけれど、アメリカ軍の攻撃力はイランにそれに比べて圧倒的である。ペルシャ湾やオマーン湾の近辺には常に米国 海軍の二つの空母がいて、まもなくそれが3つになる。イランのボートや航空機は米軍が24時間週7日体制で監視している。
Any Iranian challenge to the Strait would be suicide. イランがホルムズ海峡で何か事を起こすなら自殺行為である(後略)
イランについて警戒すべきはホルムズ海峡ではなくて、別の場所への攻撃である・・・ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ The Iranian leadership knows that if they want to threaten international markets, the vulnerability is not by sea but rather on land. On Dec. 22, Iraq’s deputy prime minister claimed that Iraq’s oil exports had surpassed 3 million barrels per day. If Iranian-backed militias or saboteurs destroyed pipelines or Iraq’s single Persian Gulf oil terminal, oil prices would skyrocket. Iraq’s South Oil Company has taken no obvious contingencies to ward off the threat, and with the American withdrawal, Iraq’s vulnerability has only increased. イランの指導部は国際石油市場の価格を高騰させるには、何をやればよいかを知っている。12月22日にイラク副首相は同国の 石油輸出が日量300万バレルを超えたと発表している。イランの支援する武装派とかがイラクのペルシャ湾の唯一の石油ター ミナルへのパイプラインを攻撃すれば、石油価格が高騰する。イラクの南部石油会社は充分な非常時対応計画を持たない。 アメリカ軍の撤退に伴ってイラクの脆弱性は高まっている。
The crisis in the Strait may soon pass, but the real threat at the far end of the Persian Gulf remains. ホルムズ海峡の危機は起きても直ぐに収まるが、本当の危険はペルシャ湾の遠い端の方にある
シリアには現在、アラブ連盟の監視団が入っており、反体制派は、アサド政権の圧政と国民の不満を監視団にアピールする ため、大規模デモを呼びかけていた。デモは中部ホムス、ハマ、南部ダラアなどでも行われた。この日も治安部隊による弾 圧が続き、ロイター通信によると、少なくとも計10人が死亡した。 AFP通信によると、ドゥーマでは、治安部隊が数千人のデモ隊に向けてクギ爆弾を発射、20人以上が負傷した。デモ参 加者は投石などで反撃した。 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2011-12-30/syria-protests/52291270/1 Syrians hold largest protests in months as Arab League monitors visit
BEIRUT (AP) ? In the largest protests Syria has seen in months, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets Friday in a display of defiance to show an Arab League observer mission the strength of the opposition movement. ・・・・ Omar Shaker, an activist and resident of the battered neighborhood of Baba Amr in Homs, said the observers were "laughable," often walking around with outdated cameras and without pens. "Still, the bombardment and killings have decreased here in their presence. We see them as a kind of human shields, that's all," he said. Shaker said around 7,000 protested Friday in Baba Amr ? the first demonstration in the besieged district in more than a week. "People are feeling optimistic," he said. "We've been protesting and dying for 10 months. We have the feeling that the worst is over and the end is near," he added.
2011最後のNYSEの引け値 ttp://www.marketwatch.com/ --------------------------------- Dow 12,218 -69 -0.57% Nasdaq 2,605 -9 -0.33% S&P500 1,258 -5 -0.43% Gold 1,565 +24 +1.55% Oil 98.94 -0.71 Euro/$1US 1.2943 -0.0018 $1US/Yen 76.9200 -0.7200 10yrT-note 1.87 -0.02 Nikkei225 8415 --------------------------------- "As we end the year, we are pretty much right where we started," said Chris Hobart, chief executive officer of Hobart Financial Group in Charlotte, N.C. ttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/story?guid=e19f9185-d87c-488a-872f-1ca604014b02&link=MW_home_latest_news
ホルムズ海峡周辺などで大規模な軍事演習を行っているイラン海軍の報道官は31日、ミサイルの発射テストについて「数日 以内に実施する」と述べた。イランのメディアが伝えた。イラン海軍は24日から10日間の予定で軍事演習を実施。ファルス 通信はイラン海軍が31日に演習の最終段階として長距離ミサイルなどの試射を行うと報じていた。 イランはイスラエルや湾岸諸国にある米軍基地などを射程に収めるミサイルを持っており、発射テストはイランへの制裁の 動きを強める欧米諸国をけん制する狙いがあるとみられる。(テヘラン=共同) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://news.sky.com/home/world-news/article/16140017 Iran Denies Missile Launch But Ready To Talk 10:56am UK, Saturday December 31, 2011
Iran's senior navy commander has denied the country has already test-fired long-range missiles during a drill - but said it would do so in the next few days. It had been reported that the Islamic Republic had fired the weapons - which are capable of carrying nuclear warheads - on Saturday. But commander Mahmoud Mousavi rejected these claims, saying "the exercise of launching missiles will be carried out in the coming days". イラン海軍は一部メディアの伝えた、核搭載可能の長距離ミサイルを既に試射したとの情報を否定した。指揮官のMahmoud Mousaviは「軍事演習の一部として数日中にミサイル試射を行うだろう」と述べた -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.debka.com/article/21608/ Dec. 31, Iran's state agencies "reported" long-range and other missiles had been test-fired as part of its ongoing naval drill around the Strait of Hormuz. Ahead of the test, Tehran closed its territorial waters. For five hours Saturday, not a single warship, merchant vessel or oil tanker ventured into the 30-mile wide Hormuz strait, waiting to hear from Tehran' that the test was over. 31日にイラン国営通信がホルムズ海峡の軍事演習で長距離ミサイル試射したと報じた。イランは領海を封鎖し5時間にわたって ホルムズ海峡のすべての航行が、演習の終わるまで停止した。ミサイルというのは射程1600キロの Shahab-3あるいは Nasr1cruise対艦ミサイルではと憶測された。しかし0900に海軍指揮官がミサイル試射を否定し、今後の数日中に行うとした。 しかしこの指揮官の発言はローカルのFarsi語のメディアでは報道されていない。
No reason was given for the delay, but, never short on opinion, Debka File chimed in with their take. Calling it a "media trick," Debka says Iran did exactly what it threatened to do earlier in the week, and effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz as "eas[ily] as drinking a glass of water." ttp://www.businessinsider.com/iran-missile-test-possible-bluff-2011-12#ixzz1i6y9AMxj
(AP) BEIRUT ? Syria's two largest opposition groups have signed a draft agreement on setting up a democracy after President Bashar Assad's regime falls. The move is so far the most serious by the fractured opposition to unite against the regime. Representatives from the Syrian National Council and the National Coordination Body for Democratic Change in Syria, or NCB, say the draft was signed in Cairo on Friday night. NCB's Hassan Abdul-Azim and Omar Idlibi of the SNC told The Associated Press on Saturday that both groups agree Assad's regime must go and be replaced by a democracy.
シリアの反政府勢力NCB(National Coordination Body for Democratic Change in Syria)と、別の反政府勢力のSNC (Syrian National Council)の代表は金曜夜にカイロでアサド政権打倒と民主体制確立のドラフト協定にサインしたと発表。
日本や欧州などイラン原油の輸入国は大きな影響を受ける可能性があるが、米議会筋によると日本などへの発動は当 面猶予される見通し。 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/31/oukwd-uk-iran-drill-missile-idUSL6E7NV00P20111231 U.S. steps up sanctions as Iran floats nuclear talks By Laura MacInnis and Parisa Hafezi HONOLULU/TEHRAN | Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:49pm EST
(Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama signed new sanctions against Iran into law on Saturday, shortly after Iran signalled it was ready for fresh talks with the West on its nuclear programme and said it had delayed long-range missile tests in the Gulf. ・・・ However, Obama asked for scope to apply the measures flexibly, and will have discretion to waive penalties. Senior U.S. officials said Washington was consulting foreign partners to ensure the new measures did not harm global energy markets ・・・ Separately, Iranian media reported that nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili would write to the EU foreign policy chief to say Iran was ready for fresh talks on its nuclear programme, which it says is aimed exclusively at power generation.
2011年はギリシャ危機の解決が失敗し、イタリアやスペインにまで債務危機の感染の危機が高まった年として 記録に残るのだろうけれど、ユーロと欧州の債務危機の現状を評論してシュピーゲル(独)に掲載されたもの --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,806469,00.html 12/30/2011 Delusions of the Euro Zone The Lies that Europe's Politicians Tell Themselves A Commentary by Armin Mahler ユーロ圏諸国の妄想:ヨーロッパの政治家の言っている嘘 by Armin Mahler
But, once the criteria of the Stability and Growth Pact were no longer adhered to, they started picking up speed -- until even the key promise that pro-euro politicians had made was broken. According to the so-called "no-bailout clause" of the Maastricht Treaty, no country was supposed to be liable for the debts of another.
With debts amounting to 150 percent of GNP, Greece is de facto bankrupt. Over the course of 2011, even the leading representatives of the euro zone finally accepted this fact -- after having claimed its opposite a year previously. This explains why the first bailout package for Greece was, to put it mildly, based on an illusion. Possibly against their better judgment, countries putting money into the package assumed that Greece would be able to solve its debt problems by implementing a stringent belt-tightening regime.
Proponents of this kind of union fantasize that the crisis will give rise to an opportunity. They believe that now, in the hour of need, the pressure to act is big enough to push through the integration of Europe that has previously always failed because of national self-interest. But they might be deceiving themselves once again. The parliaments of the EU member states would have to approve any far-reaching amendments to the union's treaties. What's more, in many cases, this would also involve changing national constitutions and holding referendums. Such a process is protracted, and its outcome is anyone's guess.
筆者の予見し得る今後のシナリオで、現実に起きそうなことは一部のユーロ参加国(ギリシャ・・)のユーロ離脱とユーロ圏 の縮小(コア・ユーロ圏)であるという。それは政治家たちのついてきた嘘が現実に直面して起こす必然的結果である・・ In the end, the currency union will shrink. Greece and possibly even other countries will have to abandon the euro in order to be able to get back on their feet with the help of their own, significantly devalued, currency. The euro saviors and their citizens must finally face the uncomfortable truth. Under current conditions, the euro will fail economically because the differences between euro-zone countries are too great. But new conditions that would give the euro a firm economic foundation are almost impossible to implement due to political factors. In any case, they can definitely not be put in place quickly enough to combat the current crisis. Indeed, the would-be euro saviors are suffering from yet another delusion: that they are able to buy all the time they need, without any limits.
ttp://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/idf-bracing-for-all-post-assad-scenarios-in-syria-1.404807 Published 03:27 01.01.12Latest update 03:27 01.01.12 IDF bracing for all 'post-Assad' scenarios in Syria Military also preparing for possible attack in Golan Heights on Israeli targets by Syrian civilians, without any real involvement of terrorist groups. By Gili Cohen イスラエル軍はシリアのアサド政権の崩壊に備えたシナリオの準備に入っている ハーレツ、イスラエル、01日
TOKYO ? The eldest son of North Korea's late leader Kim Jong-Il has secretly visited Pyongyang to pay his last respects, the major Japanese daily Yomiuri Shimbun reported Sunday. Kim Jong-Nam's absence from a state funeral and other official events related to his father's death has fuelled speculation about a possible power struggle with his half-brother Jong-Un, who has taken over North Korea's top posts. Jong-Nam, 40, flew to Pyongyang from the Chinese territory of Macau, where he mainly lives, on December 17 after learning about his father's death that day, Yomiuri said. He left after "a few days" and was now in Macau, the report said. Using a passport under the false identify of Kim Chol, he avoided a flight via Beijing which might have given more exposure to his return home, the daily said quoting a source connected to North Korea 金正男は12月17日の金正日の死後に、Kim Cholという偽名のパスポートでマカオからの飛行機で北朝鮮を訪問、父の死を弔問 したと読売新聞が日曜日に伝えた。北朝鮮筋のソースによるという。
BP Solar, the alternative energy subsidiary of the oil industry giant which received a $7.5 million Department of Energy grant only four years ago, announced last week it would exit the solar business. The unit just closed its only U.S. manufacturing facility, in Frederick, Md., last year. The company said it would outsource its production of solar photovoltaic panels to China and India. BP CEO Tony Hayward told the Washington Post at the time it was “moving to where we can manufacture cheaply.” BP auctioned equipment in January this year from the closed plant, and in a sign the overall industry ? with bankrupt Solyndra as its face ? is completely tanking, an experienced industrial auctioneer told the Frederick News-Post, “We’ve been doing more solar technology auctions lately.” 国内の太陽光パネル製造工場を閉鎖し、パネルを中国やインドにアウトソースすると発表。価格競合力のない欧米での製造に 見切りをつけた。
The news agency noted that about 100 employees will be affected, and blamed “oversupply and price pressures” for the unit’s downfall, in addition to its earlier shutdown of several factories in Spain (job losses: 480) after subsidies dried up there. BPソーラは昨年、スペインの工場を閉鎖し480人を解雇、今回の米国工場閉鎖で100人程度を解雇
The truth is, BP Solar has been around for forty years and was also considered one of the big players in that form of renewable technology. But all the subsidies, reductions in costs, and regulatory friendliness could not make it profitable for the world’s third-largest energy company. Can it be any clearer that the “Green” economy has been built on a media-supported bubble that is now bursting? BPソーラは再生可能エネルギー開発で40年の歴史があり、この分野の主要プレイアーの一つと考えられてきたが欧州諸国の 太陽光発電への政府補助金の削減や海外メーカーの低コストの挑戦によりビジネスの継続が不可能になった。
"We enter 2012 with a very difficult outlook for the eurozone [and] with an increasing possibility of countries actually leaving the eurozone. "Nobody should underestimate what a big deal that would be, because it would be very difficult to manage the contagion risk, even if it was only Greece. The disruption from that would really be quite significant.
"I think the probability of countries leaving the eurozone has increased because we have had several successive plans announced to solve the problem of the eurozone which simply haven't convinced the market ? and ultimately, the current structure and shape and scope of the eurozone only works if the market believes it's worth supporting," he said. "We are in a path-dependent problem, where the solutions available at any one time are not necessarily available at the next step and so I think the solutions base has narrowed because we have missed opportunities." 「ユーロ圏の一部の国がユーロを離脱する可能性が高まったと見る理由は、この危機を解決するための幾つかの対策がなされ、 それらが市場を納得させる事に失敗したためだ。ユーロ圏の現在の状況、構造、見通しは市場が解決策を信じた時にのみ有効 である。我々は進行状況依存型の問題を抱えていて、ある時点での解決策は次のステップに進んだ時には利用できないかもし れない。過去の失敗で解決策の幅が狭められたと思う」
Mr Sands' warning of a possible euro break-up comes as the head of Greece's central bank admitted that it would be a "real nightmare" if the country went back to the drachma. "Any possible return to the drachma will be a real nightmare at least for the first few years," George Provopoulos told the Kathimerini newspaper this weekend. ギリシャ中央銀行の総裁はギリシャがユーロを離脱し、ドラクマ通貨に戻るなら悪夢のような事態になると言っている。「ド ラクマに戻るというのは実に最悪の悪夢を意味する。少なくとも最初の2年はそうなる」
"Progress achieved over decades will be wiped out," he warned. "I am convinced that Greeks will mobilise in the national effort to return as soon as possible to the path of social and economic progress within the eurozone." 「過去数十年の進歩が消し去られる。ユーロ圏に参加する事による社会経済的進歩に鑑みて、離脱があればギリシャ国民が 何をおいても復帰のために全国民的に努めると確信している」
Mr Sands said that politicians and business would have to work hard to ensure that the social consequences of any slowdown were mitigated. "I think there is a real risk because these economic problems bring real social consequences, cuts in social provisions, higher rates of unemployment, very high rates of youth unemployment, there is a real risk of all this translating into greater calls for protectionism, more populist policies," he said. Mr Sandsは「私はこの危機がリアルな社会的悪影響をおよぼすために、リスクは重大と思う。社会保障の削減、失業率の増大、 特に若年層の失業率の高騰、これらが政治に影響を与え、ポピュリズムと保護主義が台頭する危険がある」(後略)
イランはイスラエルや湾岸諸国にある米軍基地などを射程に収めるミサイルを保有。イラン海軍は12月24日から10日 間の予定で、オマーン湾やインド洋北部、ホルムズ海峡周辺などで軍事演習を実施。演習の最終段階として長距離ミサイル などの試射を行うとしている。(共同) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/01/us-iran-missile-idUSTRE80007E20120101 Iran fires radar-beating missile during Gulf drill TEHRAN | Sun Jan 1, 2012 7:57am EST
(Reuters) - Iran test-fired a new medium-range missile, designed to evade radars, on Sunday during the last days of its naval drill in the Gulf, the official IRNA news agency quoted a military official as saying. "The mid-range surface to air missile which is equipped with the latest sophisticated anti-radar technologies has been successfully test-fired," Deputy Navy Commander Mahmoud Mousavi told IRNA.
>イラン側は、ミサイルはレーダー追跡を避ける仕組みを備えていると説明している >missile which is equipped with the latest sophisticated anti-radar technologies