One early danger is that the kingdom is close to acquiring nuclear weapons rather than continuing to rely on the longstanding security guarantees and understanding of successive administrations in Washington. Last month a Saudi official privately warned the kingdom would not tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran. Pakistan (for bombs) and perhaps North Korea (for rockets) are potential allies. There are already credible reports of facilities in the desert that the Saudis claim are oil-related, although there are no pipelines in sight. Also, North Korean personnel have been spotted at military facilities.
Saudi Arabia on Wednesday said it had fired a security adviser who wrote in The Washington Post that the world's top oil exporter would intervene in Iraq once the United States withdraws troops. Saudi Arabia's government said last weekend there was no truth in Nawaf Obaid's November 29 article, which suggested the kingdom would back Iraq's Muslim Sunnis in the event of a wider sectarian conflict.
The article said the kingdom would intervene with funding and weaponry to prevent Shi'ite militias from attacking Iraq's Sunnis and suggested Saudi Arabia could bring down world oil prices to squeeze Shi'ite power Iran. 記事ではサウジアラビアがイラクのシーア派の武装派がスンニ派を攻撃することを妨げる為に 資金や武器の援助をして干渉すること、また石油価格を低下させてイランのシーア派の力を低 下させることがあり得るなどと示唆していた。(後略)
But it seems possible today, and therefore the Saudi leadership is preparing to substantially revise its Iraq policy. Options now include providing Sunni military leaders (primarily ex-Baathist members of the former Iraqi officer corps, who make up the backbone of the insurgency) with the same types of assistance -- funding, arms and logistical support -- that Iran has been giving to Shiite armed groups for years.
If Saudi Arabia boosted production and cut the price of oil in half, the kingdom could still finance its current spending. But it would be devastating to Iran, which is facing economic difficulties even with today's high prices. The result would be to limit Tehran's ability to continue funneling hundreds of millions each year to Shiite militias in Iraq and elsewhere.