CSIS held the public release of the new report, "The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Getting Asia Right through 2020," with Richard L. Armitage and report contributors. CSISはアーミティジ前国務服長官らの主催した委員会の作成した報告書、「日米関係の あり方、2020にむけてのアジア政策」を発表した。
The report outlines the findings of a bipartisan panel of Asia specialists co-chaired by Armitage and Joseph Nye. The report highlights major trends in Asia and provides the panel's comprehensive analysis with security and economic policy recommendations. この報告書は党派を超えたアメリカのアジア専門家が集まって作成したもので、議長はリチャ ード・アーミティジ氏とジョセフ・ナイ氏が勤めた。報告書はアジアの主要な潮流について述 べるとともに安全保障と経済政策について、分析と勧告を提示している。
In October 2000, Ambassador Armitage and Dr. Nye issued "The United States and Japan: Advancing Toward a Mature Partnership," which specifically aimed at strengthening the bilateral relationship in areas of politics, security, Okinawa, intelligence, economics and diplomacy. "Getting Asia Right through 2020" continues to emphasize the importance of the alliance, but also addresses how the U.S.-Japan alliance could work together to positively influence the future in Asia. 2000年にアーミティジ氏とジョセフ・ナイ氏は「日米関係のあり方、より成熟したパートナー シップを目指して」と題した報告書を提出し日米関係の強化を提言した。特に安全保障や沖縄、 諜報、外交、経済での連携の強化を訴えた。今回の「日米関係のあり方、2020にむけてのアジ ア政策」では継続して日米関係の重要さを訴え、その一方で日米関係がアジアの将来にポジテ ィブな影響を与えるようなあり方について分析し、提言している。
Titled "The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Getting Asia Right through 2020," the report issued by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) was skeptical of Tuesday's North Korean denuclearization agreement and urged Washington and Tokyo to be "prepared for all scenarios." "This is a good thing," Richard Armitage, former deputy secretary of state and one of the lead co-authors of the report, said of the nuclear agreement.
"Whether it's a good deal or not, however, remains to be seen." He and other authors of the report are pessimistic about "the ability or willingness of the DPRK to come entirely clean," Armitage said, referring to North Korea by the acronym of its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. その6者会合合意の履行がうまくゆくかについては「見てみなければ解らない」とのべた。 アーミティジ氏はじめ報告書の著者らは朝鮮半島の非核化がスムースに進むかについて批判 的な立場をとっている。
"I think there is a very real risk that we see this as a very first step, and North Korea sees this as the last step," said Kurt Campbell, who helped compile the report. "It will be really over the course of next year or two that we see how this plays out." The CSIS report envisions Korea's reunification by 2020 but possibly through a highly risky process. カート・キャンベル氏は「北朝鮮がこの合意を最後のステップとして、我々が最初のステップ として眺めるという、大変危険な状況があり得る」と述べている。「この1,2年でこの問題が 如何に展開するか、重要なことだ」報告書は2020年に朝鮮半島統一を予想しているが、その過 程は危険に満ちたものであり得るとしている。
One scenario involves the North's instability, which could create problems in controlling the country's weapons of mass destruction and burden South Korea so heavily as to disrupt its democratic institutions and economic prosperity, it said. ひとつのシナリオは北朝鮮の不安定化が韓国の民主主義と経済的繁栄を脅かすものになり得る としている。
"Of course, our calculus must also include the possibility that North Korea will continue to build nuclear weapons to 2020 and beyond," it said, and the nuclear issue may be resolved only upon Korean reunification, as was the case of Ukraine after the collapse of the Soviet Union. 報告書は2020年においても北朝鮮が核爆弾を製造している可能性があるとしている。北朝鮮の 核問題は朝鮮半島の統一と、ソビエト連邦崩壊後のウクライナのような方式で解決可能になる かもしれないという。(後略)
この政策の前提は、「台湾の人民が米日の考え(embeded in this approach is an assumption that people of Taiwan support a vision similar to that of the United States and Japan )を支持すると仮定します」、未来もし台湾の人民は民主的なプログラムを通すな らば、1本の異なっている道を選んで、米日は再び台湾に対する政策を評価するかもしれま せんとでも報告しても強調しています。
CSIS held the public release of the new report, "The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Getting Asia Right through 2020," with Richard L. Armitage and report contributors. CSISはアーミティジ前国務服長官らの主催した委員会の作成した報告書、「日米関係の あり方、2020にむけてのアジア政策」を発表した。
The report outlines the findings of a bipartisan panel of Asia specialists co-chaired by Armitage and Joseph Nye. The report highlights major trends in Asia and provides the panel's comprehensive analysis with security and economic policy recommendations. この報告書は党派を超えたアメリカのアジア専門家が集まって作成したもので、議長はリチャ ード・アーミティジ氏とジョセフ・ナイ氏が勤めた。報告書はアジアの主要な潮流について述 べるとともに安全保障と経済政策について、分析と勧告を提示している。
In October 2000, Ambassador Armitage and Dr. Nye issued "The United States and Japan: Advancing Toward a Mature Partnership," which specifically aimed at strengthening the bilateral relationship in areas of politics, security, Okinawa, intelligence, economics and diplomacy. "Getting Asia Right through 2020" continues to emphasize the importance of the alliance, but also addresses how the U.S.-Japan alliance could work together to positively influence the future in Asia. 2000年にアーミティジ氏とジョセフ・ナイ氏は「日米関係のあり方、より成熟したパートナー シップを目指して」と題した報告書を提出し日米関係の強化を提言した。特に安全保障や沖縄、 諜報、外交、経済での連携の強化を訴えた。今回の「日米関係のあり方、2020にむけてのアジ ア政策」では継続して日米関係の重要さを訴え、その一方で日米関係がアジアの将来にポジテ ィブな影響を与えるようなあり方について分析し、提言している。
Titled "The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Getting Asia Right through 2020," the report issued by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) was skeptical of Tuesday's North Korean denuclearization agreement and urged Washington and Tokyo to be "prepared for all scenarios." "This is a good thing," Richard Armitage, former deputy secretary of state and one of the lead co-authors of the report, said of the nuclear agreement.
"Whether it's a good deal or not, however, remains to be seen." He and other authors of the report are pessimistic about "the ability or willingness of the DPRK to come entirely clean," Armitage said, referring to North Korea by the acronym of its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. その6者会合合意の履行がうまくゆくかについては「見てみなければ解らない」とのべた。 アーミティジ氏はじめ報告書の著者らは朝鮮半島の非核化がスムースに進むかについて批判 的な立場をとっている。
"I think there is a very real risk that we see this as a very first step, and North Korea sees this as the last step," said Kurt Campbell, who helped compile the report. "It will be really over the course of next year or two that we see how this plays out." The CSIS report envisions Korea's reunification by 2020 but possibly through a highly risky process. カート・キャンベル氏は「北朝鮮がこの合意を最後のステップとして、我々が最初のステップ として眺めるという、大変危険な状況があり得る」と述べている。「この1,2年でこの問題が 如何に展開するか、重要なことだ」報告書は2020年に朝鮮半島統一を予想しているが、その過 程は危険に満ちたものであり得るとしている。
One scenario involves the North's instability, which could create problems in controlling the country's weapons of mass destruction and burden South Korea so heavily as to disrupt its democratic institutions and economic prosperity, it said. ひとつのシナリオは北朝鮮の不安定化が韓国の民主主義と経済的繁栄を脅かすものになり得る としている。
"Of course, our calculus must also include the possibility that North Korea will continue to build nuclear weapons to 2020 and beyond," it said, and the nuclear issue may be resolved only upon Korean reunification, as was the case of Ukraine after the collapse of the Soviet Union. 報告書は2020年においても北朝鮮が核爆弾を製造している可能性があるとしている。北朝鮮の 核問題は朝鮮半島の統一と、ソビエト連邦崩壊後のウクライナのような方式で解決可能になる かもしれないという。(後略)
また、会員制あるいは一部有料記事要約を提供している新聞社としては、The New York Times、The Wall Street Journal、Washington Postなどがあり、その他にも アーカイブ企業としてAccessMyLibrary.com、Thomson Gale、Factiva、HighBeam Research、LexisNexisなど多数の企業が参加している。
ttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17195589/ Report tries to alleviate US/Japan alliance drift Financial Times By Demetri Sevastopulo and Eoin Callan in Washington Updated: 7:11 a.m. ET Feb. 17, 2007 FT:アーミティジ報告書は日米同盟のドリフトを防ごう(緩和しよう)としている
A bipartisan Washington report on the US-Japan alliance has recommended that Tokyo reduce restrictions on arms exports and create a separate budget for ballistic missile defence in order to improve military co-operation between the two allies. 超党派のグループの作成した報告書が日米関係について、武器輸出規制の緩和、ミサイル防衛 の別予算化などを勧告している。 (略) The report called for expanded military exchanges between Japan and US, including placing a representative from the Japanese defence ministry at the US Pacific Command in Hawaii. It also recommended that the US deploy a squadron of next-generation F-22 fighter jets to Japan. 報告書は日米の軍事交流の拡大を勧告し、日本の自衛隊代表者のハワイの太平洋艦隊指揮基地 への常駐などをあげている。さらに次期戦闘機F22飛行隊の日本への配備を勧告している。
"The US should seek to ensure that the Japan air self-defence force has access to the most advanced fighter systems in the US inventory," the report said. 「日本の航空自衛隊がアメリカの最先端の戦闘機システムにアクセスできるようにアメリカ政 府が配慮すべき」と報告書は述べている。
Releasing the report at the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Friday, Mr Armitage said it was an attempt to alleviate a drift in the US-Japan relationship. "The US must realise we too are a Pacific nation. We must not take an episodic approach to Asia." CSISから発表された報告書はアーミティジ前国務服長官らによるもので日米関係の漂流 を避けよう(緩和しよう)とするものであり、「アメリカは、アメリカ自身も太平洋国家であ ると認識すべきでありアジアに対する気まぐれなアプローチを採ってはならない」としている。
Separately, the report urged the US and Japan to "declare intentions to commence negotiations on a comprehensive free trade agreement". "We ought to begin discussing an FTA. This will not happen overnight but we think the time is now to be discussing this," said Mr Armitage. Such a move would be highly controversial on Capitol Hill and would take years to complete. 安全保障の勧告とは別に、報告書は「日米がFTAを結ぶ交渉を行なう意向を宣言すべき」 としている。「日米はFTAを結ぶべきだが、それは一夜にしては成らない。しかし、それ を考える時期に来ている」とアーミティジ氏は述べた。そういうアイデアはアメリカ議会で は大変議論が多そうで、その締結には何年もの時間を要するであろう。
Calling the US "war on terror" a "misnomer", the report called on Japan to use its "soft power" to counter long-term sources of extremism around the globe. 報告書は「テロとの戦い」を「名前のつけ方を間違えている」として、日本がソフトパワー を世界の過激主義の根源に、長期的に対処する為に、使用するよう求めている。
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Saturday lauded early progress in a military operation against militants in Baghdad, but said Iraqis had to use this "breathing space" to push ahead with reconciliation.
"They are off to a good start," said Rice, referring to Operation Imposing Law. "How the Iraqis use the breathing space that might provide is what is really important," she told reporters.
I welcome the agreement announced yesterday between the United States and North Korea. It demonstrates the central value of using every tool in our arsenal to achieve our objectives. I only wish the Administration had pursued this course six years ago when an agreement with North Korea was within reach. The wasted time has allowed North Korea to develop nuclear weapons in the interim. Failure to use diplomacy has damaged our national security interests. The important step forward our country has made with North Korea raises the obvious question: Why will the President refuse to have any kind of process involving Iran as I and others have urged? The United States engaged in talks with North Korea within a multilateral process, but also had ongoing bilateral discussions. We should have such a process of direct engagement with Iran, as recommended by many, including the Iraq Study Group. We need friends and allies to stand with us in this long war against terrorism and extremism, and to contain and alter the regimes that harbor and support those who would harm us. During the cold war, we spoke to the Soviet Union while thousands of missiles were pointed at our cities, while its leaders threatened to bury us, while the regime sewed discord and military uprisings and actions against us and our allies. That was a smart strategy used by Republican and Democratic Presidents alike, even though it was often a difficult one. (北朝鮮との6者会合合意を高く評価し、このような合意が6年前に達成されていれば北朝鮮が 核爆弾を完成させることも無かったとしてブッシュ政権を非難、あわせてイランに対しても 直接二国間対話を行なうべきである、というもの。現在ブッシュ政権がイランとの直接二国 間対話を行なっていないことはナンセンスだという)
(上記のヒラリーの政策に対するコメント、ブログ主催者、NRO) I'm undecided on the merits of the latest deal - I'm still wary about whether there is enough verification, and fear that it will be interpreted as the latest capitulation to extortion - but regarding Hillary's criticism, what, exactly, have we lost in the intervening six years? How has our national security really been harmed in the past six years by North Korea? Isn't their nuclear arsenal rather shaky? Wasn't the big boom of last year an extraordinarily low-yield? In fact, hasn't the saber-rattling by Kim Jong-Il actually managed to bring China closer to our position? Aren't our relations with South Korea and Japan actually strengthened by facing this emerging threat together? Aren't we better off if Japan begins to take its own national security seriously? (今回の6者会合合意が成功するかは疑わしい。北朝鮮の核爆弾が飛躍的に進歩したわけでは ない。北朝鮮をめぐる多国籍協議のお陰で、中国をこの問題でアメリカの協調者にし、日本 がより安全保障に積極的になり、日米同盟が強化された側面もある) Again, I get irritated when people speak as if our lack of diplomatic relations with Iran is the result of us being in a snit. Our lack of a formal relationship with Iran didn't happen in a vacuum! It's because they raided our embassy and took our citizens hostage for 444 days! --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ヒラリーの北朝鮮&イランへの政策は民主党左派のそれで、こういう事を大統領がやるなら カーターの時代に戻ると思う。あの頃はイランやソビエトが元気百倍・・・
1)イラクのアメリカ軍が、イラクで押収されたイラン製の武器を公開、メディアに説明会 2)ブッシュ大統領が、これらイランからの武器持込に言及 3)リベラル・メディアが一斉にブッシュ批判「証拠が曖昧」「信用できない」 例:Minneapolis Star Tribuneの社説 We're not buying any of it yet, and neither, so far as we can tell, is anyone else.
Summary Debate is under way in Australia about the proper platform to replace the Royal Australian Air Force's F-111Cs and older model F/A-18s. Although Australia is a partner in the Joint Strike Fighter program, this one plane will not meet all of Canberra's strategic needs オーストラリアの空軍で、現行のF-111Cや旧型モデルのF/A-18の後継機となる多目的戦闘機 の選定について議論が戦わされている。オーストラリアはF-35の開発に参加して、その購入 を予定している国であるものの、その選択が全ての要件を満たさないとの議論がある。
Canberra, however, is looking for one plane to meet two very different strategic needs -- air dominance and groundstrike capability -- and the appropriate platform to replace the F-111C Aardvark and old F/A-18A/B Hornet fleets might not exist. The JSF probably has a place in the RAAF, but it cannot stand on its own. オーストラリアの求める機能は一つの戦闘機が二つのも目的を満たすことで、制空権の獲得と 地上攻撃能力である。F-35はオーストラリアの要求を満たすところはあるが、完全にオースト ラリアの要求とマッチするわけではない。
<制空権の確保> この点で問題になるのは露西亜のSu-30、特にSu-30MKIで、中国や印度、マーレーシアやインド ネシアに配備されつつある。これはオーストラリア空軍の現行のF/A-18A/Bよりも戦闘機として は高性能である。もっとも制空権の獲得は戦闘機の能力だけに依存するわけではなくて、オー ストラリアはボーイング737ベースのAirborne Early Warning and Control (AEWC)を6機保有し、是は戦闘機との組み合わせて大きな威力を発揮する。
<地上攻撃能力> But the discussion of the F-22 and F-35 has been extended to the strike realm, where payload capacity becomes an important issue. Although both planes are equipped for this purpose, the vast bulk of their capacity requires external mounting, dramatically reducing (but not negating) the value of their stealth characteristics. Configured for ground attack, both offer only minimal room for internal stores -- several air-to-air missiles and two large conventional bombs. F-22 と F-35についての議論は、地上攻撃能力の点になると、その搭載可能ペイロードの量が 問題になる。両機種とも各種の爆弾を装備可能であるが、多くの場合は外部装着になるので、 ステルス性を大いに犠牲にすることいなる。地上攻撃の為の装備としては両機種は内部装着 出来る爆弾は量が少ない。幾つかの空対空ミサイルと2個の大型通常爆弾を積めるだけでる。 (略)
“Now it’s time to say the redeployment should start in 90 days or the Congress will revoke authorization for this war,” the New York senator said in a video on her campaign Web site, repeating a point included in a bill she introduced on Friday. 金曜日に上院で審議されたイラク戦争制限法案に関連して、ヒラリー上院議員は自己のキャン ペーン用サイトにビデオをうpし、「いまや90日以内にイラクからの撤退を開始すべき時であ り、さもなくば議会はこの戦争の承認を取り消すべきである」と述べた。
“If George Bush doesn’t end the war before he leaves office, when I’m president, I will,” Clinton said in the video. 「ブッシュ大統領がその任期を終えるまでに、この戦争を終結させないならば、私が大統領 になれば、それを終わらせる」とビデオの中でヒラリーは述べている。(後略)
QUESTION: Madame Secretary, there appear to be two elements from the September 19 agreement that are unaddressed by at least this first phase of implementation that I wanted to ask you about in serial. First was what Ambassador Hill said. He said, "We don't have an agreement at this point even on the existence of this uranium program, but I certainly have made very clear repeatedly that we need to ensure that we know precisely the status of that." The first question is about that uranium program, you don't even have an acknowledgement from them that it exists.
SECRETARY RICE: James, as I said, we are in the first quarter, not the fourth, and we are going to pursue the issue of the highly enriched uranium program. We've made that clear. And I will just call to your attention that the joint statement as well as this implementing agreement say all nuclear programs, and we mean all. ttp://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2007/feb/80496.htm Secretary Condoleezza Rice Washington, DC February 13, 2007
Nearly two dozen bombs exploded across southern Thailand on Sunday, killing three people and wounding at least 46. Most of the 23 bombs went off around 7pm (1200 GMT) in four southern provinces: Narathiwat, Yala, Pattani and Songkhla, near the Malaysian border.
この解析でも、宣言文のIIの(2)にある「全ての核施設のリスト」という部分を、紛 争のおきそうな部分と指摘していて、北朝鮮がウラン濃縮施設を開示しないのであれば。 この合意全体の「constitute an early test」といっている。そして60日のデッドライン を「first real tesy」としている。
Meanwhile, Hillary wants us to start moving out of Iraq in 90 days. Do you think she really believes what she says? I don't. I think she's actually smarter than that and she is trapped in a sad game, caught between her own ambitions and the maneuverings of the Murtha Mafia. Not exactly a Profile in Courage. ttp://www.rogerlsimon.com/
Roh likened South Korea's task to the Americans' Marshall Plan after World War II. The headstrong Roh doesn't seem to mind the difference that war-broken Europe wasn't pointing thousands of troops and hundreds of missiles at his country and trying to build rockets that could be reliably fired at the Americans. Post-war European governments also weren't in the habit of directing all available foreign aid first to their huge, if threadbare, militaries. And what of the Japanese, who are acutely aware of the considerations Roh ignores? http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21247788-2703,00.html
ノムヒョン大統領は北朝鮮への支援をWWII後のアメリカの欧州への支援、マーシャル・プ ランに例えた。ノムヒョン大統領の無視していることは戦後の欧州には何百ものミサイルや何 千もの兵士を支援国に向けてはいなかった、ということである。ロケットを作ってアメリカに むけて撃つという事もしなかったわけだ。戦後の欧州諸国は、その受けた支援を、第一義的に 自国の軍隊に回すということもしていない。ところで、(ノムヒョン大統領とは違って) 日本人はこれを理解していそうなのだが、彼らはどうするのだろう? (この記事の最後に、北朝鮮の核廃棄が進まないようなら、日本は核武装に向かうだろうと記 者は書いている) Under that scenario there would most likely be one more nuclear state in northeast Asia. And none of them would be talking about disarmament.
Written by Richard Armitage, deputy secretary of state in George W.Bush's first administration, and Joseph Nye, a Clinton-era senior defence official, the report clearly assumes that a disarmed North Korea is not a realistic objective. A contained rogue nuclear state is the best likely outcome. 前国務副長官のリチャード・アーミテージとクリントン政権の国防省高官であったジョセフ・ ナイらによる日米関係への提言をまとめた報告書(第2アーミーテージ報告)が出されたが、 この報告書では北朝鮮の非核化は現実的なオプションでは無い、と明確に述べている。北朝鮮 は継続して核武装を保持することが、最もありそうなシナリオとしている。
In that case, the chief virtue of the deal US envoy Christopher Hill brought back from Beijing last week is that it starts reversing another huge strategic miscalculation by the Bush White House. The agreement "is a good thing", Armitage said at the launch of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies report. "Whether it's a good deal or not, however, remains to be seen. "We are quite sceptical on the ability of North Korea to come clean ... so the US and Japan must consider whether North Korea will retain its nuclear weapons," he said. その場合、クリストファー・ヒル国務次官補らのまとめた先週の6者会合合意は、ブッシュ政権 にとって大きな戦略的計算違いとなろう。6者会合合意は「よい事」とアーミテージ氏は言うが 「その結果がよいものになるかどうかは、見てみないと解らない」 「北朝鮮が核廃棄するかにつ いては我々は大変悲観的である。だから日米両国は北朝鮮が核武装を続けることを考慮しておく べきである」
In a remote patch of the Anbar desert just 20 miles from the Syrian border, a single blue pillar of flanges and valves sits atop an enormous deposit of oil and natural gas that would be routine in this petroleum-rich country except for one fact: this is Sunni territory. イラクのスンニ派地域であるアンバール県のシリア国境から20マイルの地点で、石油と天然 ガスの調査の油井がある。イラクではクルド族の支配する北部と、シーア派の支配する南部 に石油埋蔵があるが、スンニ派地域では例外的である。
But now, Iraq has substantially increased its estimates of the amount of oil and natural gas in deposits on Sunni lands after quietly paying foreign oil companies tens of millions of dollars over the past two years to re-examine old seismic data across the country and retrain Iraqi petroleum engineers. イラクは今や推定石油・ガス埋蔵量を大きく増加させることになった。過去2年間に、スンニ 派支配地域での石油探索の為の、外資石油会社が数千万ドルを使って過去の地震探査データ の再検討を行い石油探索技術者をして調査せしめてきた。
The new studies have increased estimates of the amount of oil in a series of deposits in Sunni territory to the north and east of Baghdad and in a series of deposits that run through western Iraq like beads on a string, and could contain as much as a trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The revised figures, though large, would not mean that deposits in Sunni territories could challenge the giant fields elsewhere in the country. 新たな調査で、スンニ派地域であるバクダッドの北部と東部に石油埋蔵量が推定され、また 1兆立方フィートの天然ガスも埋蔵が推定される。この推定値の増大は大きなものであるが、 スンニ派地域の埋蔵がイラクのほかの地域より大きくなるというわけではない。 (略) Mr. Bayati said that the studies, which were conducted across the whole country, also increased estimates of the natural gas reserves in Sunni-dominated Ninewa and Anbar Provinces in the west. He said that the amount of natural gas that could theoretically be extracted from the Akkas field alone would be the energy equivalent of around 100,000 barrels of oil a day. イラク石油省の探索調査・開発部長であるMr. Bayatiによれば、イラク全土に渡る再調査の結 果スンニ派支配下のニネワ県、アンバール県の天然ガス埋蔵量の推定値が増加した。彼によれ ばAkkas地区の天然ガスだけでも、理論的には日量10万バレルの石油に相当するエネルギーだと いう。(後略) ---------------------------------------------------------- これは今のところ地震探査データからの推定のようだけれど。
SEOUL, Feb. 19 (Yonhap) -- North Korea on Monday accused the United States of trying to interfere with South Korea's presidential election this year, citing a proposed forum in Washington where presidential contenders were invited to express their views. "The United States is already holding out its evil hand ahead of the presidential election" of South Korea, said the Rodong Shinmun, the official newspaper of Pyongyang's ruling Workers' Party, in a commentary. 「アメリカは韓国の大統領選挙に先立って、その悪意に満ちた干渉の手を伸ばしている」と 労働新聞社説が述べている。
"It is an unforgivable manipulative scheme for producing a pro-American, dictatorial government to remove those who support the June 15 statement and let an extreme right-wing and conservative forces that befit its taste hold power," the newspaper said. 「親米独裁政権を韓国に擁立し、6月15日声明を無視し、極右保守派にのみ益する政権を樹立 することを企んでいる」
The North's criticism came a day after a major contender from the conservative Grand National Party, Park Geun-hye, returned from her trip to Washington where she met senior U.S. officials and scholars, including U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. この声明はハンナラ党の朴大統領候補が訪米し、アメリカ政府高官に会見し、ライス国務長官 らと会って帰国した直後に出されている。
``It appears increasingly likely that the North Korean nuclear issue will be finally resolved only upon unification,’’ it said. 報告書は「北朝鮮の核問題は、朝鮮半島統一によってのみ解決可能と考えることが、ますます 妥当になってきた」と述べている。この報告書は北朝鮮が核廃棄に向かう可能性について大変 悲観的な見通しを示している。
``Failure to conclude the FTA and have it approved by the Congress, which seems to be increasingly likely, may be worse than if the FTA negotiation had not begun,’’ said the report. ``It will also affect, we fear, the perception of the value of a broader U.S.-South Korea alliance,’’ it added. 報告書は米韓FTAについて「FTAの妥結が失敗するか、そうでなくてもアメリカ議会が米 韓FTAを承認しないだろうとの見通しが高まっており、それはFTA交渉が無かった場合よ りも悪い影響を与える」としている。「それは、より広範囲の、米韓同盟の価値について影響 を与えると憂慮される」
It urged the United States and Japan to be prepared for all scenarios of reunification - including one in which there would be instability in North Korea - that would require "unprecedented agility in diplomacy and deterrence."
ttp://www.victorhanson.com/articles/hanson021707.html Printer Friendly February 17, 2007 Casting the First Stone How do we trust Newsweek when criticisms often depend on unnamed sources? by Victor Davis Hanson National Review Online
NRO:匿名ソースで政府批判を繰り返すニューズウイークを信用できるか?
This fear of American cowboyism is now widespread in and out of government. Consult, for example, the latest Newsweek cover-story expose by Michael Hirsh and Maziar Bahari (“Rumors of War”), in which we are lectured about George W. Bush’s blundering: “The secret history of the Bush administration’s dealings with Iran is one of arrogance, mistrust and failure.” ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 最新のニューズウイークのカバーストーリーを例にとって、匿名の高官、匿名のソース、匿名 の諜報筋の専門家・・・といった余りにも多くの匿名ソースを繰り出して、政府批判をさせて いるやり方への批判。情報ソースは出来る限り明確化されるべきだし、匿名の非難意見を掲載 などと言う幼児的なやり方はプロパガンダとしてもレベル低杉。これは国内メディアにも通じ る安直左翼の凡庸陳腐な記事作成術。
The news about newspapers could hardly be more dismal: falling circulation, repeated rounds of layoffs, disappearing ads and a chain of bad earning reports. It's an unsavory stew of ills, one that shows little prospect of becoming more appetizing. ・・・・ ・・・・ Perhaps most worrisome is the loss of young readers, who have drifted away steadily since the early 1970s, long before there was an Internet, when more than 70% of 18- to 34-year-old Americans read a daily newspaper. Last year that figure stood at 35%.
>>170 http://www.occidentalism.org/?p=500#comments This is an exaggeration of sorts. I was not wearing a T-shirt, it was a black sweatshirt worn over a turtleneck, with “Nanjing” written in small letters less than a 1/2 inch in white, over the left breast area. One has to stand close (中略) And because I’ve just been wearing it a lot this month and will for the rest of the year as part of the build-up to the 70th anniversary of the Nanking Massacre that is coming up in December and people are already preparing for.
The stock market reached record highs last week, but nothing on the Dow Jones Industrials outstripped soaring shares of Giuliani Preferred. The nation's political market is bullish on Rudy.
A spate of polls showed the former New York mayor the preferred Republican choice nationally and in states as diverse as New Hampshire, Alabama and Oklahoma. The chatterazzi says someone with Rudy Giuliani's moderate social views can't win a Republican nomination in a contest that will include a wide swath of conservative party members. They are wrong. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ジュリアーニ論。ルディ・ジュリアーニは、外交や安全保障の分野では信頼できる保守の論客 なのだけれど、アメリカの保守派から見ると社会的価値観がリベラル過ぎる(妊娠中絶許容、 同性愛者のシビルユニオン支持、銃規制賛成、・・・)なのでアメリカ政治の「常識」からい えば共和党の大統領候補になり得ない。筆者は、その共和党の保守的な常識が変化して、今は ルディを受け入れ可能であると論じる。その理由の大きなものは、昨年11月の中間選挙におけ る共和党の敗退である、という。
Giuliani's great advantage may be that he looks like a winner. He's broken into a big lead among Republicans who have a preference. And he beats Hillary Clinton in the general. Giuliani may be the only way back from the wilderness.
That Republican insiders are keen to keep the disaster of 2006 from a catastrophe in 2008 came clear in the endorsement of Giuliani by the party's oily opportunist Rep. David Dreier. The man who broke Nancy Reagan's heart by not pursuing her daughter Patti Davis is a reliable indicator of who's been tagged a winner. Last week it started to look like the political market was going long on Rudy.
Over the long term, will the currently configured and planned terrestrial-based missile defense system be sufficient to deal with increasingly sophisticated countermeasures and shifting threats? The answer, I believe, is no.
It matters where we locate sensors and interceptors. It is important to put sensors close to the threat, because they will be in position to provide critical cueing and tracking data early in a ballistic missile’s flight. ・・・ ・・・ Policy consequences
The policy benefits of a space-based missile defense layer are straightforward. A more effective missile defense system that fully leverages space would provide a true on -call global defensive capability, and this could lead to increased stability in the world. Defenses deter attacks by reducing confidence in the success of any attack. The more effective the missile defense system is, the greater will be its deterrence value, and the less likely will we be to have to use it at all.(ry
The leaders of the Czech Republic and Poland say they are in favour of letting the US build parts of its missile defence system on their soil. 国内では反対運動なども起こっている、アメリカの欧州向けミサイル防衛施設をチェコと ポーランドに設置する計劃について、両国首脳はこれを許可する方針。
The US has already built missile interceptor sites in Alaska and in California, but says it needs to expand into Europe to counter growing threats from further afield. アメリカは自国防衛用のミサイル防衛システムをアラスカとカリフォルニアに持っているが 欧州むけのシステム設置の基地を求めていた。
Pentagon wants the bigger part of the project - a silo for 10 interceptor missiles - to be built in neighbouring Poland. If the US plan ultimately gets the green light, the spending on the Polish and Czech projects is likely to total $1.6bn (£810m), with the bases built by 2011. ペンタゴンの計画は10個のインターセプターをポーランドとチェコに置くミサイル防衛システ ムの欧州むけ基地を作ることで、2011年までに$1.6B(1900億円)を要する。
Gen. Nikolai Solovtsov, head of Russia's missile forces, said the US move would upset strategic stability. "If the governments of Poland and the Czech Republic take such a step ... the Strategic Missile Forces will be capable of targeting these facilities if a relevant decision is made," he said. 露西亜のミサイル軍、Nikolai Solovtsov将軍は「もしチェコやポーランドがそうするのならば 露西亜の戦略ミサイル部隊は、それらの基地に照準を合わせるといった戦略判断をするだろう」
NEW YORK, NY, United States (UPI) -- Oil prices could fall to $30 a barrel starting next month, down 47 percent from current levels, a New York investment research firm says. NYの投資情報・調査会社が来月意向に石油価格が47%下落し、バレルあたり$30に成る 可能性があるとの予測を発表した。
Rising prices for storing crude will lead to a 'breaking point' that forces speculators to sell, AllianceBernstein`s Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. said in a February report. Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.の月次報告書は投機による石油価格の高騰がブレーキングポイン トに達し、投機家が売りに回る可能性を予測している。
The 'breaking point' could come in March if Saudi Arabia, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries` largest generator of oil, fails to cut production below 8 million barrels per day, the level needed to keep the market balanced, Bernstein said. ブレーキングポイントと報告書の言っているのは3月のOPEC総会で、もしサウジアラビアが 日量800万バレル以下に産出量を削減しない場合で、その場合は市場のバランスが崩れるだろう という。
Capacity would rise and investors would 'reallocate money away from the commodity funds, causing futures prices to fall,' the firm said. その場合、産出能力が向上し投資家がコモディティファンドから資金を引き上げる事になり、 価格の下落を招くだろうという。
The firm called current oil prices 'perhaps the biggest artificial distortion of a market since the technology bubble of the late 1990s.' この報告書では現在の石油価格は1990年代のハイテクバブル以降の、市場における最大の人工 的なひずみによって支えられているという。
>Despite feelers from Japan and Australia, >the U.S. has officially stated that the F-22 will not be available for export.
>Apparently the United States considers the F-22 technologies so important that >they don't want to take any chances with leaks. >Japan and Australia are two of Americas most trusted allies when it comes to sharing secrets, >so the F-22 decision indicates the belief that the F-22 is considered a decisive weapon. >Or at least some of the F-22 technologies are considered extremely important.
米国は、攻撃は計画しておらず、イランがウラン濃縮を停止するよう説得を続ける、と主張 している。(後略) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6376639.stm Last Updated: Monday, 19 February 2007, 23:26 GMT US 'Iran attack plans' revealed
But diplomatic sources have told the BBC that as a fallback plan, senior officials at Central Command in Florida have already selected their target sets inside Iran. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- BBCの報道(タイトルのつけ方とか)は些かタブロイドチックで如何なものかと思う。 ただし、BBCの記事なので、それが非常時の(fallback plan、非常時対応計画)であ ることは一応断っている。軍事組織が、あらゆるケースに備えて攻撃シナリオを準備して おく事は軍事組織のミッションとして当然のことと思えるし、現状でアメリカがイランに 軍事オプションを使う可能性は殆ど無いというのが大方のアナリストの観測と思ふ。
Summary U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney will travel to Japan, Australia and Guam on Feb. 20-27 for discussions on Iraq, Afghanistan, North Korea and regional security (as well as a little fishing). This is Cheney's first official visit to the region since April 2004. While publicly the discussions will focus on current events, the vice president also will address U.S. long-term strategic concerns in East Asia -- namely the way the three allies deal with China.
Publicly, the visits will be a mix of warm welcomes from close allies and local protests over various issues -- in Japan, the North Korean nuclear deal and U.S. base realignment, and in Australia, questions about defense (particularly aircraft deals) and complaints about citizens at Guantanamo Bay. But underlying the public face of these talks is the further strategic realignment of U.S. and allied roles in East Asia, all with an eye toward China.
Signs of looming difficulties are not hard to find. Standard economic analyses indicate that China is likely to face problems with its exchange-rate policy, its financial sector and the inefficiency of its state-owned enterprises. Hutton certainly knows his economics, and any reader can profit from what he has to say about many of these issues. But his central thesis is that China’s main problem is not the inadequacy of its capitalist economics, but the limitations of its Communist politics.
Indeed, it’s true, as Hutton shows in great detail, that China faces a number of critical economic difficulties that are directly traceable to its lack of democracy. He mentions the Sinologist Elizabeth Economy, for example, who has documented how indiscriminate environmental destruction is turning the Chinese landscape into a wasteland. (後略)
イランの石油輸出では日本向けが大きいのだけれど(CIAファクトブック) Japan 16.9%, China 11.2%, Italy 5.9%, South Korea 5.8%, Turkey 5.7%, Netherlands 4.6%, France 4.4%, South Africa 4.1%, Taiwan 4.1% (2005)
The main component of the bribe (worth up to half a billion dollars) is oil, to be delivered by South Korea. It's quite likely North Korea will try to cheat on this deal, as it has done in the past. The North Korean police state is still in business, still broke, and still on the prowl for handouts and bribes.
Thus, later in October, Rice shuttled across Northeast Asia to reassure allies and win support for this diplomatic design, especially in Beijing.
Pressure had its place. So did diplomatic ingenuity. One Chinese official said to Rice, "It is better to play with two hands." And talking with the North Koreans would not be a problem, Rice concluded, if doing so did not undermine the vital regional foundation and if the North Koreans actually had something to say.
シカゴサンタイムズ:北朝鮮との合意の成功は、長期的には失敗につながる --------------------------------------------------------------------------- "Though we know we should defeat you, we have not the time to meet you.
We will therefore pay you cash to go away."
And that is called paying the Danegeld;
But we've proved it again and again,
That if once you have paid him the Danegeld
You never get rid of the Dane.
というキップリング(Rudyard Kipling)の詩が最初に出てくる評論。言っていることは:
So what will happen?
No one really knows, but one good bet is even if this deal "works," it will prove to be a powerful incentive to nuclear proliferation worldwide. ・・・・ ・・・・ As Kipling pointed out, the moral is plain:
So when you are requested to pay up or be molested,
The Danegeld was an English tribute raised to pay off Viking raiders (usually led by the Danish kings) to save the land from being ravaged by the raiders. The term has come to be used as a warning and a criticism of paying any coercive payment whether in money or kind. ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danegeld
ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB117165356135011378-email.html PAGE ONE :CRUDE REALITY Soaring Energy Use Puts Oil Squeeze on Iran There Is Less to Export As Consumers Learn To Love Appliances, Cars By BILL SPINDLE February 20, 2007 3:11 a.m.; Page A1
WSJ(ページ1記事):イラン国内のエネルギー消費の増大で、輸出用の石油が不足に
AHVAZ, Iran -- Iran sits on one-tenth of the world's known oil supplies but is using so much energy these days it may start rationing gasoline as soon as next month. イランは全世界の確定石油埋蔵量の十分の一を有するが、国内で余りにも多くのエネルギー を消費しているので、ガソリンが不足し、来月にも配給制を採用するかもしれない。
The impact would be felt far beyond Iran. The country produced 3.8 million barrels of oil a day in 2006, almost 5% of the world's total supply, according to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. It exported an average of about 2.5 million barrels of that each day. Should those sales decline, Iran's largest customers, Japan and China, would scramble for other supplies, pushing up prices for everyone. イランは2006年に日量380万バレルの石油を産出し、これは世界全体の産出の5%である。 イランの石油輸出は平均して日量250万バレルであり、これが減少するなら主要なイランから の石油輸入国である日本や中国が影響を受ける。
Iranians used the equivalent of 34% of the oil they pumped from the ground, exporting the rest. Last year they used 40%. イランは産出した石油の34%相当を国内で消費し残りを輸出するが、昨年はそれが40%になった。
Iran subsidizes most energy, including gasoline, diesel and many other refined products. Consumers and businesses alike benefit. Overall, energy subsidies cost the government as much as $40 billion, equivalent to almost a quarter of the country's entire economic output, according to Bijan Zanganeh, a former Iranian oil minister. That spending is fanning inflation in the broader economy. "It's unacceptable and it can't continue," he says. イランは石油はじめ、殆どのエネルギーに補助金を出していて価格を安くしている。このエネ ルギーへの政府補助は$40B(4.8兆円)に達し、殆どイランのGDPの四分の一にも成る。イ ランの前石油相であるBijan Zanganehは「これは許容しがたい。これを続けることは出来ない」 といっている。イランは安価な燃料や電力を多消費する体制になっていて、電力供給は不足し ている。政府はエネルギー節約の政策を言っているが、補助金の削減やエネルギー価格の値上 げは政治的に不可能に近いと見られている。(後略)
ttp://www.slate.com/id/2160159/ kausfiles: A mostly political Weblog. Hillary: 0 for 2 on Iraq Updated Tuesday, Feb. 20, 2007, at 5:16 AM ET
Or Hillary style--now that she's called for starting a pullout in 90 days. How do you surge and "redeploy" at the same time?...
P.S.: It's not too early to say that Hillary's performance in the opening weeks has been impressively unimpressive. It's pretty clear in retrospect, that the war with Iraq, however it comes out, was a bad gamble. A mistake, in other words. But now that we've made the mistaken gamble, it also seems clear--to Mohammed at least--that the surge might do some good.
The correct position, by these lights, was War No, Surge Yes. It would be selfishly callous, in a stereotypically American way, for us to invade Iraq, make a mess, and then not be willing to pay any extra price to help fix the mess we've made. (Murtha's demand that the troops be given "a year at home"--and the heck with what happens to Iraqis like Mohammed--only emphasizes this self-interested perspective.)
North Korea 'had plan to attack Japan' 北朝鮮は日本攻撃の計画を立てていた
There is nothing to worry about if North Korea has no intention of attacking Japan. However, that was not the case in the past. According to Koh, North Korea mapped out a plan to attack the Japanese archipelago, called Operation Mt. Paektu No. 3, 10 years ago, when it deployed Rodong ballistic missiles. 北朝鮮が日本攻撃の意図を持たないのならば、核武装を恐れる必要も無い。しかしそうでは なくて、前の韓国国防省の北朝鮮諜報担当の士官、Koh Young Choulによれば北朝鮮はノドン・ ミサイルを配意した10年前に日本を攻撃する計画、(Operation Mt. Paektu No. 3、白頭山 3号計画)を作っている。
According to Koh, part of the Mt. envisioned Paektu operation went as follows: Immediately after starting a war, Rodong missiles would be launched, targeting U.S. bases in Sasebo, Nagasaki Prefecture, Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture, and other locations in Japan, as well as more than 50 reactors at nuclear power plants. In the meantime, ballistic missiles loaded with chemical warheads would be launched at Tokyo. After that, commando units aboard submarines would enter Japan and carry out guerrilla attacks against important facilities. Koh Young Choulによれば、日本との戦争開始直後にノドン・ミサイルが発射され佐世保や 長崎、横須賀、そのほかの米軍基地を爆撃する。更に50基の原子力発電所を標的にする。 化学爆弾が搭載されたミサイルが東京を爆撃する。その後に潜水艦によって侵入した工作部 隊が主要施設へのゲリラ攻撃を行なう。
For North Korea, U.S. military power is a threat. However, Pyongyang, which has an energy shortage problem, does not have any option in war other than a quick, decisive battle against the United States. Therefore, the best strategy for North Korea is to bring the war to an early ceasefire by inflicting maximum damage on Japan first. Such a scenario is a nightmare for Japan, but it could actually become a reality. エネルギー不足に悩む北朝鮮軍は米軍に対して、急襲の、決定的な戦い以外のオプションを 持たない。そのために北朝鮮にとって最も有利な戦略は日本に最大限の被害を与えて早期の 停戦交渉に持ち込むことである。これは日本にとって悪夢のシナリオであるが現実化する恐 れがある。(後略)
Some Bank of Japan policy makers may have been reluctant to increase rates because of the nation's slow price growth.
Core consumer prices, which exclude fresh food, rose 0.1 percent in December, slowing from 0.2 percent in November. Core prices may fall as early as March because of cheaper oil, said Takehiro Sato, chief economist for Japan at Morgan Stanley. Fukui has said cheaper oil would benefit the economy by reducing energy costs.
Commitment To A Plan Of Action とるべき行動としてコミットされたもの Within 60 days:60日以内に実施
North Korea will shut down and seal its main nuclear facility at Yongbyon, invite International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) personnel to monitor and verify compliance, and discuss a list of all its nuclear programs (in advance of its commitment at a later point to provide a complete declaration of all nuclear programs and to disable all existing nuclear facilities). 北朝鮮はヨンビョン核施設を停止し、封印し、IAEA査察官を招いて検証を行なう。また IAEAに、その持てる全ての核開発計画を申告する。それらの関連する全ての核施設は後 に閉鎖される。
John Negroponte's first mission as US deputy secretary of state is expected to take him to Asia next week to shore up last week's breakthrough deal with North Korea, under which Pyongyang is to close its nuclear bomb-making facilities in return for aid and peace talks.
But in 1994, I was in a position to grasp the seriousness of the situation and urge constructive steps. Unfortunately, I was wrong; North Korea opted to ignore its promises and today boasts nuclear weapons in its arsenal. Against that backdrop, the latest nuclear discussion would appear to fall into the fool-me-once, shame-on-you, fool-me-twice, shame-on-me category. The new accord looks, sounds, smells and walks a lot like the Clinton-North Korean deal. Are we revisiting history?
John C. Bersia, who won a Pulitzer Prize in editorial writing for the Orlando Sentinel in 2000, is also the special assistant to the president for global perspectives and a professor at the University of Central Florida.
While the weakness in the domestic economy has made it difficult for the BOJ to normalize its policy from the current super-easy state, the U.S. and European central banks repeatedly boosted their rates in the past year amid an expanding economy and increasing prices.
The resulting widening in the interest rate gap has weighed on the value of the yen. As investors have shifted money away from yen-based assets to those denominated in other currencies which provide higher returns, the yen currently trades near its historic low against the euro and just a little above a four-year low against the dollar.
衛星通信網の強化はミサイルの防衛の為の、ミサイル発射検知などの上でも重要であり、こ れら衛星通信のリレー機能はシステムの重要な一部を構成する。オーストラリアのPine Gap には旧型の衛星通信の地上基地があるが、この施設もアップグレードされGeraldton通信基地 と共同で、通信システムの機能増強に寄与する。(後略)
For the second straight week, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) holds a fourteen percentage point lead in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination. Giuliani attracts support from 33% of Likely Primary Voters while Arizona Senator John McCain is supported by 19%. A week ago, it was Giuliani 32% McCain 18%. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) picked up a few points this week and now is favored by 13%.
ROME (Reuters) - Prime Minister Romano Prodi resigned on Wednesday, just nine months after winning the closest election in Italy's modern history, when his centre-left coalition suffered a Senate defeat on foreign policy. 水曜日にイタリー上院での外交方針の否決をうけて、就任後9ヶ月の首相、ロマノ・プロディ が辞任を表明した。
President Giorgio Napolitano accepted Prodi's resignation but Prodi may stay in power. ジョルジォ・ナポリターノ大統領は首相辞任を受け入れたが、首相が最終的に辞任と成るかは 決定していない。 Napolitano, who will consult politicians on Thursday, could stop short of calling an election and ask for a parliamentary confidence vote in Prodi. He could also ask another leader to form a governing coalition. ナポリターの大統領は木曜日に議員らと会談し、総選挙になる前にプロディ政権の議会での 信任投票を行なうよう調停している。大統領がプロディ首相以外の指導者を連立政権指導者 に要請することも可能である。
"Once again, the radical left brought him down," political analyst Franco Pavoncello at John Cabot University in Rome said of Prodi, who was last premier from 1996-1998. "Last time we waited two years. This time we waited nine months. Things are getting shortened out," Pavoncello said. ローマのジョン・カボット大学の政治アナリスト、Franco Pavoncelloは「またしても、過激 派の左派がプロディを倒した」という。プロディは前の1996-1998の首相時代にも同じ反乱に あっている「前のときは左派は2年の時間を与えたが、今度は9ヶ月だった。物事が短くなって きている」
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) - North Korea has enough plutonium to build an estimated four to eight crude nuclear warheads that could potentially be mounted on medium-range missiles, a Washington-based think tank said. ワシントンのシンクタンク、ISISは北朝鮮の核開発についての報告書を発表し、4-8個の 中距離ミサイルに搭載可能な原爆を製造するにたるプルトニウムを保有しているとした(後略) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 既出のISIS報告書の記事だけれど、ISISが北朝鮮がノドン搭載可能な原爆製造技術 をもつと推定したことを取り上げている。ワシントンのシンクタンクの発表だけど、韓国の メディアがこれを大きく取り上げたためか、記事がソウル発になっている。
ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-6430271,00.html The ISIS report speculated about North Korea's possible nuclear strategy in the event of a crisis, saying it would first likely conduct another nuclear test in an attempt to head off a further escalation. After that, the North could detonate a warhead over the ocean or explode one on a ship as a further warning, it said.
If war broke out, North Korea would be expected to use nuclear weapons against South Korea or Japan and possibly even keep bombs inside the country to be detonated when enemy forces arrive, the institute said. 戦争発生時には北朝鮮は核爆弾を日本や韓国に対して使うものと予測され、北朝鮮国内でも 敵の占領時に自爆の為に核爆弾を使うかもしれないとしている。
QUESTION: Let me put it in different way. Is U.S. or international community or IAEA or UN ready to give the same kind of deal if there's one on the table like with the North Korean?
MR. CASEY: Well, let's go back to partly where we started this process with Iran. Germany and the permanent members of the Security Council gave Iran, via Mr. Solana, a very clear choice. And on the one hand was a positive path in which they could have chosen negotiations with the international community and negotiations which would have ultimately allowed them to achieve their stated objective, which is a peaceful civilian nuclear program designed to provide power for the benefit of the Iranian people while at the same time assuring the international community that that program wasn't going to be misused and abused for creating a nuclear weapon. And the options and the possibilities under that were something that Mr. Solana did lay out fairly clearly to the Iranian Government, so there is an opportunity there and there has been for some time.
Unfortunately, what the Iranian Government's chosen to do is go the opposite way. And so as a result, they find themselves in the unfortunate and very small club of nations that have Chapter 7 sanctions against them. And again, they may find that there are added measures taken in the Security Council as a result of their, what we unfortunately are assuming at this point, is their continued defiance of the international community.
The Syrians are bolstering their forces in all areas except the air force, which has been believed to be weak for some time. The main emphasis of the efforts has been missiles and long-range rockets to compensate for the weak air force.
It appears that the Syrians have moved forces closer to the border with Israel on the Golan Heights. However, it appears that the Syrians have chosen to adopt some of the Lebanon war's lessons, and with Iranian help they have renewed emphasis on their navy.
ttp://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-02/22/content_5763876.htm <新華社、2007-02-22 20:34:22> Analysis: A trip for coordination of U.S.-Japan ties By Zhang Hua 新華社(分析記事):チェイニー副大統領は、訪日で、日米同盟のコーディネーションを図る --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 新華社によルチェイニー訪日の分析記事。言っていることは
It may not have been Churchill's Fulton speech, but President Putin's harsh rebuke to "Pax America" in Munich on February 10, seems to have struck a raw nerve in Washington. プーチン大統領が2月10日にミュンヘンデ行なったアメリカ非難演説は、チャーチルのフルトン 演説と同じとはいえないにせよ、アメリカとの関係を見直させるものである。
Yet in 2008, both leaders will leave their respective posts, and candidates less inclined to amicable relations will be waiting on the sidelines. As those elections near, the rhetoric of confrontation will continue--whether in Munich, Moscow, or Washington. 2008年にはアメリカと露西亜の指導者が交代する。しかしながら両国の次の指導者の候補は 現状より相互に友好的であるようには見えない。指導者の交替にむけて相互に非難するよう なレトリックが続くのであろう。
But it will not change the fundamental nature of the relationship between the former Cold War rivals--who, despite being anchored by common interests, have remained just that. しかしそうした現象とは別に、米露両国の基本的な関係は、つまり以前の冷戦の相手として の関係は、共通する国益につながれているところがあるとはいえ、依然変わるところが無い。 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 最近のFTやWSJにも見かけることの多くなった「露西亜先祖返り論、あるいは見直し論」 のひとつで、露西亜は前のソビエト連邦諸国への権益や影響力を失うことを許容せず、アメリ カ(及び欧州、西側陣営)との対立が継続すると、改めて強調するもの。
Author-in-Residence, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, and Author of The China Fantasy: How Our Leaders Explain Away Chinese Repression
In The China Fantasy, former Los Angeles Times Beijing Bureau Chief James Mann challenges the assumptions that have guided American policy toward China for more than three decades. Americans believe wrongly that with increasing prosperity and with the arrival of McDonald’s and Starbucks, China will move inevitably toward political liberalization and democracy. U.S. leaders suggest, with waning conviction, that trade and investment will eventually bring an end to China’s one-party system. But Mann argues that this is merely a new version of the old fallacy that the Chinese are becoming like us. In fact, Mann suggests, the newly enriched elites in cities like Beijing and Shanghai could turn out to be not the vanguard for democracy, but the driving force in favor of perpetuating an authoritarian regime. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- つまり、マクドナルドやスターバックスを北京や上海に持ち込めば、中国がアメリカのように 変わる、というのは政治家のたわいのない「ファンタジー」に過ぎない。外国資本の中国投資 は共産党独裁政権を民主化に向かわせる気配は無い。むしろ、豊かになり自信をつけた共産党 幹部は、さらに(民主化ではなく)独裁政権を強化するのである。
"I might have preferred iron, but bronze will do. It won't rust. And, this time I hope, the head will stay on," Thatcher said to laughter and applause.
Yen appreciation and widespread mortgage defaults in South Korea will force Japan's banks to halt short-term credit rollovers with Korean banks, prompting a flood of capital outflows. If this flood is joined by further fixed and portfolio investment outflows, South Korea's foreign-exchange reserves could plummet by more than $80 billion this year. The risk of won devaluation and plunging asset values is much greater than foreign investors understand.
"Regarding the suspension mentioned in the report, because such a demand has no legal basis and is against international treaties, naturally, it could not be accepted by Iran," Mohammad Saeedi, deputy head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation, said.
"This report shows that the best way to resolve this international issue is to return to the negotiating table and reach a broad agreement," he told Reuters, describing the report as "factual and legal" and showing Iran's peaceful intentions.
APの記事はロイターより詳しくて、イランはIAEAの検査に非協力的で検証が出来ない と書いている、と報告している。 The six-page report also said that agency experts remain "unable ... to make further progress in its efforts to verify fully the past development of Iran's nuclear program" due to lack of Iranian cooperation.
アメリカ政府は、国連安保理の制裁決議とは別に欧州諸国に対イラン金融制裁に参加するよ う求めている。 In addition to the sanctions, the U.S. government has been raising the pressure on Tehran on other fronts, from arresting Iranian officials in Iraq to persuading European governments and financial institutions to cut ties with the Islamic Republic.
安保理制裁決議はイランの幾つかの企業に対する制裁(貿易禁止)を定めているので、イラン は新しいフロント企業を作って核開発関連の通商をやろうとしていると反政府組織(NCRI) が告発している。 The National Council of Resistance in Iran said firms under sanctions that were renamed were the Farayand Technique Co. and the Pars Thrash Co. It named new companies set up to work on Iran's enrichment programs while avoiding sanctions as Tamin Tajhizat Sanayeh Hasteieh, Shakhes Behbood Sanaat and Sookht Atomi Reactorhaye Iran.
The report said that Iran planned to begin feeding uranium into the cascades of the industrial plant by the end of this month, and to continue installing more centrifuges there so that, by May, the total number of operating machines would come to about 3,000. IAEA報告書は今月末に地下施設の濃縮装置にウランガスを注入する計画で、更に多くの 濃縮装置を導入しようとしている。その結果5月には合計すると稼動中の濃縮装置は3000個に なると見られるとする。 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.asahi.com/international/update/0223/001.html (朝日新聞は、この部分の事実関係には、比較的正確な報道、ただし表現方法に工夫が)
Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut told the Politico on Thursday that he has no immediate plans to switch parties but suggested that Democratic opposition to funding the war in Iraq might change his mind. リーバーマン上院議員はPoliticoのインタビューに対して、共和党への鞍替えを考えてはい ないが、民主党がイラクの戦費制限に動くようであれば、それを考慮すると答えた。
"I have no desire to change parties," Lieberman said in a telephone interview. "If that ever happens, it is because I feel the majority of Democrats have gone in a direction that I don't feel comfortable with." 「党を変わりたいと思わないが、そういう事が起これば、それは民主党のマジョリティが私の 良いと思わない方向にいったという事になる」
Republicans have long targeted Lieberman to switch ? a move that would give them control of the Senate. And Time magazine is set to report Friday that there is a “remote” chance Lieberman would join the GOP. 共和党はリーバーマン上院議員に鞍替えを進めてきた。そうなれば上院の支配権が逆転する。 雑誌TIMEは金曜日に、リーバーマン上院議員が共和党の変わるチャンスは「大変少ない」 と書いている。
"Other actions by the Chinese government send a different message. Last month's anti -satellite tests, China's continued fast-paced military build up, are less constructive and are not consistent with China's stated goal of a 'peaceful rise'," he said. 「先月の衛星破壊や、人民開放軍の継続した急速な軍備強化などは、中国の公言する平和跳躍 と矛盾し、建設的でもない」と述べた。
"We go into this deal with our eyes open. In light of North Korea's missile test last July, it's nuclear test in October and its record of proliferation and human rights abuses, the regime in Pyongyang has much to prove, yet this agreement represents the first hopeful step toward a better future for the North Korean people," he said. 「北朝鮮との合意については、目を開いて良く注意して先に進む。北朝鮮の昨年7月のミサイル テスト、10月の原爆実験、そのWMD拡散や人権侵害の記録から、北朝鮮政府は信用が少ない ところがあるが、今回の合意は北朝鮮の国民の将来にとって、最初の希望のステップである」
Thursday, February 22, 2007 Lieberman has his way with the Democrats. How delicious and apt:
Lieberman says leaving the Democratic Party is a "very remote possibility." But even that slight ambiguity ? and all his cross-aisle flirtation ? has proved more than enough to position Lieberman as the Senate's one-man tipping point. If he were to jump ship, the ensuing shift of power to Republicans would scramble the politics of the war in Iraq, undercut the Democrats' national agenda and potentially weaken their hopes for the White House in 2008.
Those stakes are high enough to give Lieberman leverage with both parties no matter how slim the chance of his crossing the aisle.
Which means Senate leaders aren't worrying only about whether Joe Lieberman will switch parties. They're wondering what, if anything, he plans to do with the power that comes from keeping that possibility alive.
(略) I could go on with specific examples, but the crucial point is the pervasive European attitude to the Iraq catastrophe. As al Qaeda, the Baathists and Shiite Islamists slaughter thousands, there is virtually no sense that their successes are our defeats. Iraqi socialists and trade unionists I know are close to despair. They turn for support to Europe, the home of liberalism, feminism and socialism, and find that rich democrats, liberals and feminists won't help them or even acknowledge their existence.
There were plenty of leftish people in the 20th century who excused communism, but they could at least say that communism was a left-wing idea. Now overwhelmingly and everywhere you find people who scream their heads off about the smallest sexist or racist remark, yet refuse to confront ultra-reactionary movements that explicitly reject every principle they profess to hold.
Why is the world upside down? In part, it is a measure of President Bush's failure that anti-Americanism has swept out of the intelligentsia and become mainstream in Britain. A country that was once the most pro-American in Western Europe now derides Tony Blair for sticking with the Atlantic alliance. But if Iraq has pummeled Mr. Blair's reputation, it has also shone a very harsh light on the British and European left. No one noticed it when the Berlin Wall came down, but the death of socialism gave people who called themselves "left wing" a paradoxical advantage. They no longer had a practical program they needed to defend and could go along with ultra-right movements that would once have been taboo. In moments of crisis, otherwise sane liberals will turn to these movements and be reassured by the professed leftism of the protest organizers that they are not making a nonsense of their beliefs.
If, that is, they have strong beliefs to abandon. In Europe and North America extreme versions of multiculturalism and identity politics have left a poisonous legacy. Far too many liberal-minded people think that is somehow culturally imperialist to criticize reactionary movements and ideas -- as long as they aren't European or American reactionary movements. This delusion is everywhere. Until very recently our Labour government was allowing its dealings with Britain's Muslim minority to be controlled by an unelected group, the Muslim Council of Britain, which stood for everything social democrats were against. In their desperate attempts to ingratiate themselves, ministers gave its leader a knighthood -- even though he had said that "death was too good" for Salman Rushdie, who happens to be a British citizen as well as a great novelist. (後略) --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 筆者の言う「多文化主義の過激派バージョン」サヨクの分析や解析が、もっと書かれてもよい のかもしれない。ガーディアンも、その原因の大きなものに、20世紀における社会主義の死を 挙げていたようだけれど。
Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- If you want stock markets to keep rallying, then root for higher oil prices.
As the price of oil skyrockets, petroleum-exporting nations become wealthier. In economist-speak, their current-account surpluses expand. Those petrodollar surpluses are then recycled to other markets, particularly the U.S., where the flows help finance the current-account deficit, which was $656 billion through the first three quarters of 2006.
``Should the oil price fall further or even just stay where it is, global financial markets will lose a valuable source of liquidity and a major portion of corporate earnings could take a hit,'' Casali says.
So if you want stock markets to keep climbing, start cheering for the Arabs, Iranians, Russians and Nigerians, not to mention the Norwegians and Venezuelans.
Only a Democrat could hurt her, and a Democrat just did. Hollywood titan David Geffen, who now supports Barack Obama, this week famously retagged the Clintons as an Ivy League Bonnie and Clyde. Bill is "reckless," Hillary relentless--"God knows, is there anybody more ambitious than Hillary?" In an interview that seemed like an audience, with the New York Times's Maureen Dowd, Mr. Geffen said, "Everybody in politics lies, but they do it with such ease, it's troubling." In this he was, knowingly or unknowingly, echoing Bob Kerrey, the former Nebraska senator, who said in 1996 of the then-president, "Clinton's an unusually good liar. Unusually good. Do you realize that?" Mr. Kerrey suffered for the remark and was shunned within his party for a while, but didn't retract. ・・・・・ ・・・・・ Mrs. Clinton came out after him, and amid the Geffen flap, so it's not surprising that she was a little off her game. She spoke the way she speaks--"renew the promise of America . . . give people the services and support they need . . . hardworking families"--but the flat voice seemed flatter, more grating. She seemed diminished by the fact that the event hadn't been built around her, didn't star her, wasn't arranged by her. There were other people there, other candidates on the stage, and she looked like she was in a contest for a change.
Usually Mrs. Clinton is a tough little tank, but on Tuesday she seemed less large, less formidable. If only for a moment, less inevitable. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- この評論で取り上げている、ハリウッドの大物(億万長者でもある)Mr. Geffenのヒラリー 非難はちょっとした事件で、あちこちのブログで話題になっている。
I've been trying to figure out why David Geffen was so harsh on Hillary Clinton. Whatever you can say about the music mogul, he is one shrewd character, quite savvy about the media and its ways. He's been in the public eye for thirty years or more.
I think it has to do with something much more pragmatic to Geffen - and my wife Sheryl pointed this out. Geffen doesn't think Hillary can win. ・・・・ ・・・・ Maybe I'm reading too much into this here, but Geffen made his billions picking winners (The Eagles, etc.). He's made another judgment. He may be right.
David Lawrence Geffen (born February 21, 1943) is a record executive, film producer, theatrical producer, and philanthropist. Geffen is most noted for creating Geffen Records in 1980, along with his later role as one of the three founders of Dreamworks SKG.(ry Geffen is now supporting Barack Obama for President and raised $1.3 million for Obama in a star-studded Beverly Hills fund raiser.(ry
THERE ARE TWO THINGS to be said about the first major intramural spat of the 2008 Democratic primary season. The first is that David Geffen has a point (and we're not saying that just because there is a remote chance that we might work for him someday). The second is that if California moves up its primary, presidential candidates visiting here will soon have to pander to more than just Hollywood moguls. 二つのことを言っておきたい。まずDavid Geffenの言い分は尤もである。第二にカリフォル ニアの民主党候補予備戦で、候補者たちはDavid Geffen以上の多くの人に受け入れられなく てはならない。
Geffen, once among Bill and Hillary Rodham Clinton's biggest financial backers, threw Hollywood's first mega-fundraiser of the election cycle on Tuesday ? for Barack Obama. His criticism of Hillary Clinton, reported Wednesday by New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd, sparked an amusingly overwrought exchange between the Clinton and Obama camps. Geffenはかってはクリントン夫妻の最大の金銭的支援者であったが、今回はオバマを支援する。 彼のヒラリー非難はNYTのコラムニスト、Maureen Dowdの記事で報道されてオバマ・ヒラリー 論争を更に煽ることになった。
Geffen was on to something with his passing mention of the fact that Obama is not from "the Bush royal family" or the "Clinton royal family." Regardless of what you think of Bill Clinton's presidency, or his wife's talent, the dynastic aspect of Hillary Clinton's candidacy is an issue that will increasingly come to occupy center stage in this campaign. Is the country prepared to be governed, potentially, for 28 years by two families who alternate turns in the White House? Geffenがオバマはブッシュ王家にもクリントン王室にも属さない、といっていることには意味が あって、ヒラリーがクリントン家の一員であることがますます問題になってきている。この国は 28年間にわたって、ふたつの家に、交替で支配されるべきであろうか?(パパブッシュ→クリン トン夫→Wブッシュ→クリントン妻で、4+8+8+8=28)
The Clinton campaign appears unwilling to acknowledge this concern. The candidate likes talking to audiences about whether the nation is ready for a female president. But the question of whether the country is ready to perpetuate the dueling-family reign by voting in the former president's spouse is disingenuously left off the table. Maybe Hillary Clinton can make the case that she is the most qualified candidate, but she is going to have to find a way to address the dynastic issue directly. She can't have it both ways ? trading on her husband's popularity but not acknowledging people's unease at turning the White House into a family business. クリントンのキャンペーン陣営はこの問題を承認したくないようだ。候補者は女性の大統領を アメリカが受け入れられるかを語りたいようである。前大統領の伴侶に投票することで、対立 する両家の支配を続けることの可否はテーブルから外されている。ヒラリーは能力のある候補 者だと主張したいのであろうが、王朝支配の問題を避けるべきではあるまい。ホワイトハウス を家業にするわけにはいかない。(後略)
That's why every other Democratic presidential candidate was smiling, and why Republicans were gleeful, too. Absent the explosions set off by Geffen's therapy session with Dowd, the big news would have been Dick Cheney's mean jab at John McCain.
The gloves are off in the US Democratic race to the White House. David Geffen, one of America's richest men, has upped the ante by initiating the first salvos between the two main camps of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. ・・・・ There's nothing more bloody than a civil war.
BAGHDAD, Feb. 23 - A son of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the head of Iraq’s dominant Shiite political bloc, was seized today by United States forces in southern Iraq as he tried to re-enter the country after visiting Iran. The son was identified as Ammar al-Hakim, an Iraqi official said. It was not immediately clear why he was detained. イラクのシーア派の有力政治家であるAziz al-Hakimの息子が南部イラクでイランからの帰り 道、国境地域でイラクに入国したところをアメリカ軍に拘束された。(後略)
Ammar likely is involved in transferring money and weapons on behalf of Iran to Iraqi Shia, and could also be spying on the United States. The arrest is an indication of a strain in relations between the Bush administration and its closest Iraqi Shiite ally. The timing of the arrest suggests the United States is only now realizing the problems associated with the fact that SCIRI, which also has an allied militia called the Badr Organization, is also Iran's main proxy in Iraq. ハキムの息子のアマールは、おそらくイランからイラクへの資金や弾薬の移送に関連していた のであろう。アメリカへのスパイとして働いていたかもしれない。この事件はブッシュ政権と イラクのシーア派との緊張関係を示す。事件のタイミングからみてアメリカはSCIRIの 問題を今になって理解したかもしれない。SCIRIはバドル武装派に関連する。それはイラ クにおけるイランの傀儡である。
Thus far, U.S. forces have gone after the radical al-Sadrite Bloc and its armed wing, the Mehdi Army. The arrest of Ammar shows that the United States no longer trusts even the mainstream Shiite groups. If this situation escalates, it could push SCIRI further into the Iranian camp. Moreover, it could even align the various Shiite groups (that have been fighting against each other) against the United States. アメリカは過激派のサドル師のマハディ軍を抑制し、アマールを拘束し、今ではシーア派の主 流派を信用していない。これがエスカレートすればSCIRIをイラン側に押しやりかねない。 また各種のシーア派グループをアメリカに対決させかねない。
U.S. interests in Iraq require that Washington drive a wedge between Iraqi Shiite groups and their Iranian patrons. Ammar's arrest seems to suggest that this is becoming a less-viable option. アメリカの興味はイラクのシーア派とイランのパトロンの間に楔を打つことだが、アマールの 拘束はそれが難しそうなことを示唆する。
This author’s discussions in 2003 with interlocutors at ten foreign policy institutes in Shanghai and Beijing on the North Korean nuclear issue revealed a dramatic shift in China’s stance regarding the North’s possession of nuclear weapons. The prospects of a nuclear Japan and South Korea served as the strongest factors that convinced Beijing to adopt a stern policy of insisting upon a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. Beijing counseled North Korea against the possession of nuclear weapons, arguing that they were unnecessary for regime security and were against its interests, but did not view a nuclear North as a direct threat to China, and even empathized with Pyongyang’s security concerns. At the time, however, China has also grew increasingly concerned with nuclear proliferation from the North and for the first time, became worried that a North Korean nuclear device could be obtained by terrorists and detonated within China. #日本の核武装化の恐れが、中国に北朝鮮政策の見直しを起こさせたと書いている。
In addition to its grievances against the United States, China is also upset with Pyongyang over its 2006 missile and nuclear tests. Two well-informed senior PLA officers relayed the following to this author:
- China has replaced its previous embellished descriptions of Sino-North Korean relations?“blood brothers” and “as close as lips to teeth”?with simply the word “friendship.”
- Beijing was angry with the tests primarily because Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons provided Japan with an excuse to develop its own nuclear capabilities. The seemingly contradictory U.S. policies toward “good” (e.g. India) and “bad” (e.g. North Korea) nuclear-weapon states further complicate the matter. Such policy inevitably (though unintentionally) encourages North Korea as well as others to become nuclear-weapon states to protect against attacks by the United States and its allies.
When asked to provide concrete examples that reflected China’s anger, one of the officers pointed to Beijing’s condemnation of North Korean missile and nuclear tests and its public opposition to North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons. Moreover, the officer noted, China supports UN resolution 1718, which includes prohibitions on trading certain items with North Korea. Beijing, he rushed to add, does maintain warm, albeit worsened, relations with Pyongyang despite its anger. #中国が北朝鮮の核実験に怒った理由の最大のものは「日本の核武装に正当性を与える」からだ #というのは大変興味深い。
North Korea must stick to the tight deadlines of the new deal to freeze its Yongbyon nuclear facility in exchange for a modest amount of fuel oil, Christopher Hill, the US negotiator at the six-party nuclear talks, said on Thursday.
Describing the 60-day deadline agreed to on February 13 as “very short” and one that required a “considerable amount of negotiation”, Mr Hill conceded that potentially serious sticking points lay ahead.
“We need to avoid, above all, missing deadlines,” Mr Hill told the Brookings Institution, a Washington think-tank. “When you start missing deadlines, it’s like a broken window theory. One window is unrepaired. Before you know it, you’ll have a lot of broken windows and nobody cares.”
Mr Hill stressed that the shutting down of Yongbyon and the return of international inspectors within 60 days was just the first step of a much longer process. The ultimate goal, which North Korea signed up to in September 2005, is denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula in exchange for aid and security guarantees.
During the first 60 days, in which North Korea is to receive 50,000 tonnes of fuel oil for its depleted power stations, Pyongyang has also committed to discussing a list of all its nuclear programmes, and to later provide a complete declaration.
Mr Hill anticipated “problems” with that declaration, noting that North Korea had refused to acknowledge the existence of what the US alleges is a secret uranium enrichment programme. However he also indicated that the US did not believe Pyongyang had mastered the enrichment process. --------------------------------------------------------------------- いつものことだけれど、北朝鮮関連の国内報道は、外電との間に、その報道記事のニュアンス や与えるイメージにおいて、大きなギャップがあって、国内報道は非常に北朝鮮に肩入れした ものになっている。この記事でもヒル次官補の強調している「デッドライン」の厳守「全ての 核開発計核の申告」などについて、国内メディアは意図的にスルーした妙な記事を書いている。
Is that Giuliani? It seems more reflective of Hillary. She has a large bloc of voters who will vote against her regardless of her opponent. Edwards and Obama get more benefit of the doubt.
What does this mean for Hillary? It means that she'd lose the election, if they held it today. It serves more as an early-warning system for the Democrats; Hillary comes with some serious electability limitations, and if that doesn't start shifting in the next few months, she can kiss that nomination goodbye. Assuming, of course, that nothing changes for the next 20 months. ttp://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/009248.php ジュリアーニやマケインの人気と言うよりヒラリー支持者の限界と、根強いアンチヒラリー の存在を示唆する数字である、という解釈。