Chinese shares stabilised on Thursday, as fears that the government would act to cool down the mainland stock market, which has witnessed a dramatic rally over the past 15 months, eased. The Shanghai Composite Index, which plunged 5 per cent on Wednesday, fell another 2 per cent in early Thursday trading but later recovered more of the ground to close down just 0.03 per cent at 2,785.4. ・・・・ In the past few days government agencies have announced measures to limit the amount of speculation in the market, which rose 130 per cent during 2006. The market was also reacting to comments by Cheng Siwei, deputy chairman of the National People’s Congress, published in Wednesday’s Financial Times, who warned about over-heating.
“There is a bubble going on. Investors should be concerned about the risks,” said Mr Cheng. “But in a bull market, people will invest relatively irrationally. Every investor thinks they can win. But many will end up losing. But that is their risk and their choice.”
Although Mr Cheng is not directly involved in financial policy, his public comments sometimes reflect the thinking of leading officials. ・・・・ The market is vulnerable to speculative bubbles because China has a huge volume of bank deposits with low interest rates and because controls on capital outflows make it relatively hard to take funds out of the country. As a result, when optimism about equities is high, the stock market sees heavy liquidity from retail investors. ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー 記事の中で言っている、FTに掲載されたコメント云々と言うのは ttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/5415cad8-b0a1-11db-8a62-0000779e2340.html Warning on China stock market ‘bubble’ By Sundeep Tucker in Dubai and Geoff Dyer in Shanghai Published: January 30 2007 22:00
Cheng Siwei, vice-chairman of the National People’s Congress and an influential figure in Beijing financial circles, warned the mainland stock market could be overheating, after a rise of 130 per cent last year.
“There is a bubble going on. Investors should be concerned about the risks,” Mr Cheng said in an interview with the Financial Times.
“But in a bull market, people will invest relatively irrationally. Every investor thinks they can win. But many will end up losing. But that is their risk and their choice.”
He added: “You can’t take administrative measures to change people’s behaviour. The market is based on people’s behaviour. Investors will have to learn their own lessons.” #それほど極端なことを言っているわけではないような。
Rep.Honda has consistently supported the causes of civil rights groups, such as the NAACP and Human Rights Campaign. However, he has drawn criticism for his refusal to criticize human rights violations in China, a stand he explains by saying that he believes "things can change" in the country. Honda is very popular in China, especially with its anti-Japanese elements, and was warmly received when he visited the country in 2001.
ttp://instapundit.com/archives2/2007/02/post_2168.php February 01, 2007 インスタプンディット・ブログ GOOGLE NEWS SEEMS TO BE DOWN, but Ask News is working just fine. Google seems to be having problems that go way beyond Blogger alone.
Al-Hasani is an important Iraqi Arab ayatollah whose forces now control the police in Najaf, which is home to another important Shiite leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Al -Sistani, an Iranian Shiite.
Al-Hasani then issued a warning to all non-Iraqi ayatollahs -- including Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, an Iranian Shiite from Najaf-- and all Iraqi officials of Iranian blood and origin who had entered Iraq after 2003, to leave Iraq, especially Najaf within hours. Only Iraqi ayatollahs would be permitted to stay in Najaf.
Sources say that Al-Hasani's followers have eradicated many Iranians in the Najaf police force. In addition, they are now in control of 19 police vehicles and have burned 11 of them. Apparently, the governor of Najaf, Asaad Abu Gilel who is suspected by some of being an Iranian intelligence officer, has called upon the U.S. for assistance. (後略) ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー 個人的には、いくつかの理由で、この説を、このままでは信じがたいと思うけれど、情報の 不足、検証や証拠の不足、スピンの過剰、透明性の不足、ディスインフォメーションの流布、 ・・・などのためにナジャフ戦闘のディベートはワイルド化する一方のように思える。
ジェームズタウン財団のサイトにうpされている、ちょっと興味の「イラン・イラク関係」 の評論。書いているのは、アメリカの軍人だけれど、アラブ系アメリカ人でアラビア語が ネイティブ、ドイツ語、フランス語も流暢でライス国務長官など政府高官のイラクでの通 訳を務めた経験の持ち主。中東のアナリストでアメリカ軍高官のアドバイザーを勤めた人。 ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー ttp://www.jamestown.org/docs/Jamestown-IranContributionIraq.pdf Iran’s Contribution to the Civil War in Iraq BY MOUNIR ELKHAMRI
ジェームズタウン財団:イランのイラク内戦への関与について BY MOUNIR ELKHAMRI
The opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent those of the Department of Defense and the U.S. Army.(本論文は筆者の個人的見解を示しアメリカ 軍や国防省のそれとは無関係である)
While the press debates whether or not there is a civil war in Iraq, there is a strong history of Iranian-sponsored unrest in Iraq that continues to the present. Captured Iraqi intelligence documents, now maintained by the Foreign Military Studies Office, show Iran’s deep penetration in Iraqi society and institutions. Iran clandestinely supported the U.S. invasion of Iraq and took measures to turn it to her advantage. メディアではイラクに内戦があるか無いかが議論されているが、イラクにはイランのスポーン サーになったイラク国内の紛争の歴史があり、それは今も継続している。押収されたイランの 諜報部の文書はイランのイラク社会や諸機関への深い浸透を示している。イランはアメリカの イラク侵略を支持したが、その後イラクの情勢をイランの国益の為に利用しようとしている。
The Iranian government maintained armed formations, such as the Badr Corps, inside Iraq prior to the U.S. invasion. While Saddam Hussein felt that he could dissuade a U.S. invasion through world opinion and the United Nations, Iran anticipated and welcomed the U.S. invasion since it would destroy her chief enemy in the region. Iran has now moved covertly and overtly onto Iraq to subvert Iraqi institutions and eventually to assume total control. Iran has now entered a wider and more dangerous game by subverting the Iraqi police and armed forces into a “greater Shia” cause, which Iran hopes will lead to the fragmentation of Iraq and the inoration of oil?rich Shia lands into Iran. イランはアメリカのイラク侵入以前からBadr Corpsのような武装勢力をイラク内に有しており、 イランはその仇敵であるサダムフセインの打倒の為にアメリカのイラク侵入を歓迎した。今では イランはイラク内諸機関にこっそりと、あるいは公然と、侵入しており、それを転覆させること を狙っていて、いつかは全体的にコントロールを握ることが出来るとする。イランは今や広範な またより危険なゲームを行なっていて、イラク警察とイラク軍を「大シーア勢力」の大儀に参加 させるというものである。それはイランがフラグメント化したイラクを率いて、石油埋蔵量の多 いイラクの地をイランに統合するという希望につなげるものである。
(以下に本文の目次だけをコピペ) I. IRAN’S PREPARATIONS FOR THE U.S. INVASION OF IRAQ The Badr Corps’ Leaders Meetings with Allies The Badr Corps’ Military Meetings and Preparations
II. IRAN’S PRESENCE IN IRAQ AFTER THE U.S. INVASION Iraq as a Strategic Line of Defense for Iran Different Forms of the Iranian Presence in Iraq Iran’s Ideological Control over Southern Iraq Iranian Involvement in Iraq’s Election and its Aftermath Assassination of Scientists, Professors, Officers and Key Sunni Figures Federalism
The documentary, also called "Nightmare in Nanking (南京梦?)," was produced by Rhawn Joseph and Wu Haiyan. Since the film was released, Joseph said he has received threatening letters from Japanese viewers who say that the film smears Japan's image. But Joseph said that his goal was for the majority of Americans to know about the history of the Rape of Nanking in the wake of the 70th anniversary of the massacre in 2007. (ビデオへのリンク有り) ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー オリジナル記事 ttp://news.newamericamedia.org/news/view_article.html?article_id=378b2ec330e0563437bad95e27b9764f Rape of Nanking Documentary Gets over a Million Viewers Sing Tao Daily, Posted: Dec 06, 2006
Compared with Japan's colonization of much of Asia, Japan's 55-year occupation of Taiwan was relatively beneficial. Many of the generation who lived through the occupation have kinder memories of the Japanese than of the KMT's authoritarian regime.
The federation's campaign is fuelled particularly by fears among steel producers of being engulfed by the wave of global consolidation in the sector and by concerns that the country's technological commanding heights will fall into foreign hands. 経団連は鉄鋼メーカのグローバルなコンソリデーションや、日本企業の技術が外国人の手に渡 ることを怖れている。
The Keidanren's complaints are absurd. Even if the law is passed, it will remain near -impossible for foreign bidders to mount successful hostile takeovers. Dissolution of close-knit keiretsu links between Japanese companies has led growing numbers of them to install poison pills and other defences. Such tactics have thwarted even the few unfriendly domestic bids so far attempted in Japan. Furthermore, foreign businesses complain that the planned law will continue to discriminate against them, notably in the tax treatment of mergers. 経団連の言い分は馬鹿げている。現在日本で検討されている法が成立したとしても、外国人が 日本企業に敵対的買収を仕掛けることは不可能に近い。日本企業の系列が弱まったことに応じ て多くの企業は敵対的買収防止のための毒薬条項を導入している。日本では敵対的な買収は殆 ど起こっていないにも関わらず、そうなのだ。それに加えて計画されている法案では外国企業 は合併に関わる税制などにおいて、相変わらず阻害されていると文句を言っている。
The battle has exposed a deep vein of protectionism in Japan's business establishment, which still seems to see globalisation as a one-way street. By keeping the door closed to outsiders, it hopes to be able to press ahead with cosy alliances between incumbent producers that will tighten their already strong grip on the domestic market. The recent relaxation of Japan's merger rules can only encourage such unhealthy concentration. こうした経過から日本のビジネスのエスタブリッシュメントの根強い保護主義傾向が明らかに なっている。それらの人にとっては、依然としてグローバリゼーションと言うのは一方通行の ものなのである。外国から日本への進出にはドアを閉ざし、国内市場を保護し、国内と海外の 市場開発の連携性を確保する。日本の最近のM&A法制の緩和は、日本企業の不健康な慣行を ますます強める。
Continuation of the trend will penalise Japanese consumers and weaken - not strengthen - companies' performance by sheltering them from competition. Ultimately, the result will be a deterioration of Japan's already feeble productivity performance and loss of national income - just as it is struggling with the challenge of a rapidly ageing population. If those risks are to be avoided, Mr Abe must stand firm against protectionist lobbies and push through essential restructuring. そうした慣行を続けることは日本の消費者にペナルティを負わせ、企業を競争から遠ざけるこ とによって企業の業績を弱めているのであり、強めているのではない。それは最終的に日本企 業の、すでに弱められた生産性とGNIを悪化させる。少子高齢化が進む中で、そうした危険 を避けるには安倍首相は保護主義のロビーと戦い、必要な改革を進めなくてはならない。
Alas, his record to date is not encouraging. Not only has he given only pro forma support to the merger legislation, he appears to lack any strategic vision for the economy or indeed much interest in the subject. His indifference is the more surprising because the economic recovery's failure so far to raise real wages is the main reason for the steep fall in his voter approval ratings. 安倍首相のこれまでの実績ははかばかしくない。安倍首相はM&A法案への形式的な支持を行 なったのみならず、経済戦略においてこうした分野への視野にかける。経済回復が実質賃金の 上昇につながっていないことが有権者の支持率の低下の原因であることを考えると、彼の無頓 着ぶりは驚きである。
If Mr Abe's political fortunes are to revive, and Japan's prosperity is to be assured, he needs to get his priorities right. A good first step would be to borrow the war cry of Bill Clinton's victorious 1992 US presidential election campaign: "It's the economy, stupid." 安倍首相の政治的幸運を復活させるためには、そして日本の繁栄を確かなものにするためには 安倍首相は優先順位を間違えてはいけない。最初にやるべきはビル・クリントンが1992年の大 統領選挙キャンペーンで使った("It's the economy, stupid.")を借りることであろう。 ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー WSJに拠ればクリントンが("It's the economy, stupid.")をいった時期にはアメリカ経済 の回復は始まっていたが、企業業績の回復が個人の所得の回復にまでは至っていなかった。 そのために、(さらに、メディアの支援の為に)クリントンはそれを利用して勝利した。
Even more questions were raised by the appointment of Asha-Rose Migiro, Tanzania's foreign minister, as deputysecretary-general. She gushed delighted surprise in an early press article, suggesting she had not been interviewed for the job and was told of her appointment only two hours beforehand.(ry ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー ttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/2213000c-b167-11db-b901-0000779e2340.html How the new UN chief is struggling to win over doubters By Mark Turner at the United Nations Published: January 31 2007 20:21 (この記事は有償の購読契約必要)
Cesar Mayoral, the Argentine ambassador to the UN, notes: “He’s coming from a different culture, with a different approach to the international agenda.” Maged Abdelaziz, the Egyptian ambassador, says: “Korean culture is very cautious; step- by-step, systematic.”
What is unclear is how much longer that patience will last. The new UN chief ? unlike Kofi Annan, his predecessor ? certainly enjoyed no honeymoon in the media. According to insiders, his fledgling team was taken aback by the strength of early criticism, including by the normally supportive New York Times, which dubbed him a “status quo secretary-general”(ry
U.S. payrolls increased at a healthy pace last month after closing 2006 on a very strong note, while the jobless rate ticked slightly higher and wage growth slowed, suggesting the favorable mix of solid economic growth and low inflation continued into 2007. The data suggest that Federal Reserve policy makers who have already held interest rates steady since last summer can extend the current pause well into 2007. 先月のアメリカの月間新規雇用は強い値を示し、一方で失業率が若干上昇し、給与の上昇率 は低下している。これらは確固たる経済成長が低いインフレの元で継続していることを示唆 する。FRBは先に金利を据え置いているが、その政策が2007年も継続する可能性がある。
The Labor Department Friday said hiring last month in goods-producing industries rose by 7,000, breaking a string of four-straight declines. Within this group, manufacturing firms cut 16,000 jobs, while construction firms created 22,000, its highest gain since March 2006. Service-sector employment increased by 104,000. Retail rose by 4,000. Business and professional services companies' payrolls increased by 25,000. Education and health services added 31,000 jobs. The average work week was down 0.1 hour at 33.8 hours.
This week the internecine warfare in Iraq, already bewildering -- Sunni vs. Shiite, Kurd vs. Arab, jihadist vs. infidel, with various Iranians, Syrians and assorted freelancers thrown into the maelstrom -- went bizarre.
But the sight of the United States caught within a Shiite-Shiite fight within the larger Shiite-Sunni civil war can lead only to further discouragement of Americans, who are already deeply dismayed at the notion of being caught in the middle of endless civil strife.
Iraqis were given their freedom, and yet many have chosen civil war.
Among all these religious prejudices, ancient wounds, social resentments and tribal antagonisms, who gets the blame for the rivers of blood? You can always count on some to find the blame in America.
"We did not give them a republic," insists Newsweek's Fareed Zakaria. "We gave them a civil war."
Of all the accounts of the current situation, this is by far the most stupid. And the most pernicious. Did Britain "give" India the Hindu-Muslim war of 1947-48 that killed a million souls and ethnically cleansed 12 million more? The Jewish-Arab wars in Palestine? The tribal wars of post-colonial Uganda?
We gave them a civil war? Why? Because we failed to prevent it? Do the police in America have on their hands the blood of the 16,000 murders they failed to prevent last year?
Thousands of brave American soldiers have died trying to counter, put down and prevent civil strife. They fight Sunni insurgents in Fallujah, Ramadi and Baghdad, trying to keep them from sending yet one more suicide bomber into a crowded Shiite market. They hunt Shiite death squads in Baghdad to keep them from rounding up random Sunnis and torturing them to death. Just this week, we lost two helicopter pilots who were supporting the troops on the ground fighting the "Soldiers of Heaven" outside Najaf to prevent the slaughter of innocents in a Shiite-Shiite war within a war ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー クラウスハマーらしい、爽快な切れ味の評論。ここではニューズウイークの編集者である ザカリア(反米、反植民地主義、反覇権主義、反戦主義的傾向の大変強い論者だと思ふ) のいう「アメリカがイラクの内戦をもたらした」という主張を一刀両断に切って捨てる。
For now, the risk seems to be paying off. One poll, by Ipsos, this week gave him 54% of the vote in a run-off against 46% for Ms Royal?the widest gap of any poll taken since Mr Sarkozy got his party's nomination on January 14th. Ms Royal has been damaged by a succession of foreign-policy gaffes in recent weeks, which have lent her campaign an air of amateurism. She badly needs to appear both competent and concrete if she is to reverse her slide?and close off the space for the political gymnastics of the daring Mr Sarkozy.
Only 30 percent of companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange ``are good to invest in by Western standards,'' and investors in the remaining 70 percent will probably lose money, Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the National People's Congress, said Jan. 30 at a conference in Dubai. Haitong Securities said yesterday ``a correction'' is under way.
Many analysts saw the fall as a natural correction, believing the market would continue a bull run in the long term. 多くのアナリストは、今回の下落は自然な調整で、株式市場は長期的には継続して強気 としている。
"I believe the index could go as low as 2,500 or even 2,100 if more tightening measures are introduced," the broker said. 上海株式指数は2500まで下がるかもしれないし、あるいは経済の引き締めが厳しくされれ ば、2100まで下落するかもしれない、とあるブローカーはいっている。
"The government is trying to have healthy growth in the equity market," said Lewis Wan, a fund manager at Marco Polo Fund. "I do not expect severe measures to be imposed, especially before the Olympic Games." 中国政府はオリンピックまでは、株式市場の成長を継続させるだろうから、それまでは厳 しい引き締め策はとらないだろう、とマルコポーロ・ファンドのLewis Wanは言っている。
You may want to ask Cheng Siwei, the Chinese official who took a little air out of the current bubble with comments that the stock market there may be overheating. Cheng used the 'B' word this week and the Shanghai Composite index, which had gained a whopping 130% in a year, lost nearly 5% in a day
That story followed a report by Fitch Ratings that documented how aggressive lending by Chinese banks and heavy government spending in advance of the 2008 Beijing Olympics have inflated a liquidity bubble. Around the same time, government officials urged Chinese banks to tighten lending practices after the money supply surged.
Since then, foreign investors have poured another $100 billion and more into China, which is flush with its own cash as its economy grows 10% a year and its real estate and stock markets generate huge equity returns.
Those are all the ingredients needed for a classic bubble recipe, which is, at the very least, simmering.
Tumbling share prices on the Shanghai exchange this week and fears that India’s stock market is overheating could lead investors in Asia to redirect their funds to south -east Asia, which has enjoyed a healthy run in the past year. 今週の上海株式の下落や、インドの株式市場の過熱化懸念は、投資家がその資金を昨年来 好調の続く東南アジア市場に向ける可能性をうむ。
The US filing alleges China “uses its basic tax laws and other tools to encourage exports and to discriminate against imports of a variety of American manufactured goods”.
“The subsidies at issue are offered across the spectrum of industry sectors in China - whether in steel, wood products, information technology, or others,” said Ms Schwab.
Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said: “It’s a smart move politically, though practically it’s a far bigger and more complicated case than anything the US has attempted against China so far.”
Max Baucus, chairman of the Senate finance committee, said: “I hope that today’s action is a signal that the US trade representative will take more vigorous action in the future when China or any other country fails to abide by trade agreements.”
Daniel Griswold, an analyst at the Cato Institute, a conservative think tank, said the case would “give the US leverage with China to compel it to change its tax laws”. “I think this strategy does carry the risk that it will create tensions and maybe even harden the Chinese position,” he said.
The dispute process allows time for the case to be resolved through dialogue and was several steps away from a “full-blown trade war”, the analyst said.
【ワシントン2日共同】08年の次期米大統領選への出馬を表明した民主党のヒラリー・ クリントン上院議員は2日、党全国委員会の冬季集会で演説し、大統領になればイラクか ら米軍を撤退させるなどと快気炎を上げた。ヒラリー議員は「(次期大統領が就任する) 09年1月までに議会が戦争を終わらせることができなければ、大統領として私が終わら せる」と宣言、会場から喝采を浴びた。 ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-6390435,00.html Clinton Promises to End War if Elected Saturday February 3, 2007 3:16 AM By NEDRA PICKLER Associated Press Writer
``Believe me, I understand the frustration and the outrage,'' Clinton said in a speech to the Democratic National Committee meeting that brought the party's nine White House hopefuls together for the first time. ``You have to have 60 votes to cap troops, to limit funding to do anything. If we in Congress don't end this war before January 2009, as president, I will.''
``But let me say,'' Clinton said, her voice rising above the din, ``that if we can get a large, bipartisan vote to disapprove this president's plan for escalation, that will be the first time that we will have said no to President Bush and began to reverse his policies. Now, I want to go further.''
``Bring them home, then,'' said a man dressed in desert camouflage that said ``Iraq Veterans Against the War.'' Clinton said she has proposed capping U.S. troop levels and pulling funding for Iraqi forces, but won't cut funding for U.S. troops while they are on the battlefield.
``And let me add one other thing, and I want to be very clear about this,'' she said. ``If I had been president in October of 2002, I would not have started this war.''
Hearing on the U.S.-China Relationship: Economics and Security in Perspective Hearing Co-chairs: Chairman Carolyn Bartholomew, Vice Chairman Daniel Blumenthal February 1-2, 2007 Dirksen Senate Office Building, Room 562 First Street and Constitution Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20510 ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー Thursday, February 1 Panel I: Congressional Perspectives 上院議員の意見表明 * Congressman J. Randy Forbes (R-VA, 4th Dist.) (HTML)(PDF) * Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) (HTML)(PDF) * Senator Carl Levin (D-MI) (HTML)(PDF) * Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) * Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) (HTML)(PDF) Panel II: Administration Perspectives 安全保障:国防省の意見表明 * The Honorable Richard Lawless, Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs, Washington, DC 安全保障:民間シンクタンクの意見表明 * Mr. David L. Pumphrey, Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Energy Cooperation, Washington, DC (Statement PDF, Attachment PDF) Panel III: U.S.-China Relations in Review 安全保障戦略:民間シンクタンクの意見表明 * Mr. James Mann, FPI Author-in-Residence, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, Washington, DC (HTML) (PDF) * Dr. Philip Saunders, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University, Washington, DC Panel IV: The U.S.-China Economics & Trade Relationship 経済問題 * Ms. Thea Lee, Policy Director, American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations, Washington, DC (HTML) (PDF) * Mr. Grant Aldonas, William M. Scholl Chair in International Business, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC (HTML) (PDF) * Dr. Peter Navarro, Associate Professor of Economics and Public Policy, The Paul Merage School of Business, University of California, Irvine, CA (HTML) (PDF) Friday, February 2 Panel V: The U.S.-China Military & Security Relationship 安全保障:民間シンクタンク * Dr. Thomas P. Ehrhard, Senior Analyst, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, Washington, DC (HTML) (PDF) * Colonel Charles Hooper, Senior Lecturer, Chair, Foreign Area Officer Education, Training and Development, Senior Army Representative, School of International Graduate Studies, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA (HTML) (PDF) * Mr. Kenneth Allen, Senior Analyst, The CNA Corporation, Alexandria, VA (HTML) (PDF) Panel VI: Prospects for U.S.-China Political Cooperation and Diplomacy 外交問題 * Dr. Edward Friedman, Hawkins Chair Professor of Political Science, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (HTML) (PDF) * Dr. Shiping Hua, Senior Fellow, McConnell Center, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY (HTML) (PDF) * Dr. Alan M. Wachman, Associate Professor of International Politics, The Fletcher, Tufts University, Medford, MA (PDF) Panel VII: Administration Perspectives * Dr. Thomas J. Christensen, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, represented by Mr. John Norris, Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Washington, DC (HTML) (PDF) * Dr. Robert Dohner, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Treasury for Asia International Affairs, Washington, DC
Statement by Thomas J. Christensen Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Before the U.S. ? China Economic and Security Review Commission February 2, 2007
中国の北朝鮮政策について述べているところは:
North Korea. Last year saw a number of provocative actions by the DPRK that threaten international security, including missile tests in July and the test of a nuclear device in October. In an unprecedented fashion, China joined with the United States and the rest of the international community to condemn the nuclear test, voting in favor of UN Security Council Resolutions 1695 and 1718, which impose sanctions against North Korea. China’s actions to express its concerns over North Korea’s nuclear activities demonstrate that its patience with its erstwhile ally has worn thin.
北朝鮮の核実験の後で、北朝鮮に制裁を課した安保理決議に、中国が賛成したことを 前代未聞(unprecedented fashion)といっている。そして忍耐力がなくなってきて いる、と言う見方を示している。(patience with its erstwhile ally has worn thin.)
The wishful thinking among American analysts that the CCP is or soon will be democratizing is to throw sand in one’s eyes and blind one from seeing a major global consequence of China’s rise, a reinvigoration of authoritarian and anti -American projects globally. China’s rise is not good for the viability and vitality of democratic values.
There was an event whose interpretation in Beijing and elsewhere led to a Chinese self -confidence in going out that has produced this new pro-China turn globally. During the 1997-1988, Asian Financial Crises (AFC), the Government of Japan offered nations in the suffering region a large stabilization fund to end the economic bleeding. The American Government talked the Japanese leaders out of this good proposal which had been well-received in Asia. The U.S. Government instead argued on behalf of allowing the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to be in charge. The IMF, the IMF itself now concedes, then made bad things unnecessarily worse.
Isn’t it whining for Americans to insist that China is cheating? While the CCP government may try to get around WTO rules as, in fact, many nations do, it has worked within the system. That is, it is cheating fair and square. ・・ But what game is China winning? It is, as just sketched, enhancing Chinese power and helping authoritarian projects. It also is securing energy resources and making that energy safe from blockage by the U.S. Navy. The CCP’s primary focus, however, is in Asia, what the CCP imagines as China’s backyard. The impact of China’s rise in Asia is apparent even in Australia, which has been moving away from the American position on Taiwan so as to make it politically easier in Beijing for the CCP to back Chinese FDI in Australia. In general, China’s one trillion dollars in foreign exchange reserves is going to turn into Confucian institutes, Chinese FDI, and Chinese businesses becoming a major global presence. China is a superpower, a global challenge to America, a welcome global partner for ever more governments, and on its ways to regional hegemony in Asia. ・・・ The more serious clash in the Asia-Pacific region caused by the rise of China is political, ethical and strategic. What is at stake can be highlighted by quotes from two recent studies of China-Japan relations, both written by analysts who scapegoat America and call for Japan’s acceptance of China replacing America as the predominant power in the region. They present China as the natural hegemon of Asia. That is, this analysis is from people who are very friendly to the aims of the government of China and unfriendly to the United States.1 Nonetheless, they still make clear the transformational significance of China’s rise ・・・ The CCP leadership means to make China the predominant power in the region. This requires continuing rapid growth premised on good economic relations with America, Japan and Taiwan. The CCP does not want North Korea’s nuclear program to produce a nuclear arms race in the region which leads Japan and others to go nuclear.
Between 1991 and 1996, the unemployment rate averaged 6.4%, compared with 5.4% from 2001 to 2006. Today's jobless rate is now down to 4.6%. As for real (inflation -adjusted) wage growth, it averaged 0.6% annually for non-farm workers in the first half of the 1990s compared with 1.5% a year so far in this decade. "This cycle as a whole has witnessed twice the average real wage growth than the first 64 months of the previous expansion," Mr. Darda writes. For the last 12 months, real wages have risen even faster, at a 1.7% clip.
Anything else to worry about? Well, there's always the "trade deficit," though exports are now booming (up 10% last year), especially to the countries with which the U.S. has signed free-trade agreements. So moving right along, this week's bad news is said to be the U.S. "savings rate," which according to the official measure was "negative" for a whole calendar year for the first time "since the Great Depression," as Martin Crutsinger of the Associated Press helpfully put it. Hooverville, here we come!
As a statistic, however, the official "savings rate" is nearly as useless a guide to prosperity as the trade deficit. In the government accounts, what is called the savings rate is literally income less consumption. But the government defines income too narrowly and consumption broadly. For example, "income" doesn't measure capital gains (whether realized or not), the rising value of your home, or even increases in your retirement accounts.
None of this means we should be complacent about economic growth. There are two genuine clouds on the horizon -- namely, inflation risk and political risk. Inflation remains somewhat higher than is comfortable, and we still expect the Fed will consider further interest-rate hikes if today's weak dollar and soaring commodity prices lead to a jump in the official inflation indicators later this year. As for politics, the Democrats now running Congress explicitly reject the tax cuts and freer trade that have helped to propel the current prosperity. If history is any guide, sooner or later this is a recipe for trouble.
In a further setback to IAEA monitoring attempts, a U.N. official familiar with Tehran's nuclear dossier said Thursday that Iranian officials had turned down a request from agency inspectors to install cameras in key areas of the underground facility.
In Tehran on Friday, a top Iranian nuclear official ? who demanded anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media ? disputed that assertion, saying U.N. inspectors had set up cameras in the underground facility. But another U.N. official said Iran had met only some ? not all ? of the IAEA requests. (AP通信、 52 minutes ago、2/3/2007, 3:37 a.m. ET By GEORGE JAHN ) ttp://www.mlive.com/newsflash/international/index.ssf?/base/international-36/1170475792256640.xml&storylist=international&thispage=2 ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー AP通信の伝える内容はイラン通信の伝えるものと齟齬がある。こういう場合には両方を報道 するのが基本ではないかと思ふ。
Last month, I sat next to a U.K. hedge-fund manager on a flight from Tokyo to Bangkok. The day before, while in Shanghai, he was buying DVDs from a salesman who said with a wink: ``If you don't own Tsingtao Brewery Co. stock, you should get in now.'' The hedge-fund manager, who refused to be quoted by name, called it his ``Joe Kennedy moment.''
Chinese stocks may one day be a stellar investment. At the moment, they seem more like the casinos that Chinese law forbids.
HSBC, one of the world's biggest banks, helped screen large deposits of cash from North Korean customers for a Macau bank accused by the U.S. of helping Pyongyang distribute counterfeit money, a lawyer for the Macau bank has told American investigators.
Although HSBC spokeswoman declined to comment on the specifics of the case, she said, HSBC takes “money laundering control very seriously.” Many large banks like HSBC help smaller institutions with bank note trading services, including transporting currency, counterfeit screening, and exchanging damaged bills.
And on Wednesday, Air Force chief Maj.-Gen. Elazar Shkedy warned that Israel is facing a possible threat to its space-based assets over the coming decade, and that we must start preparing now to meet this threat. Speaking to the second Annual International Space Conference in Herzliya, Shkedy said: "Battle in space is on our agenda whether we like it or not. ... Israel needs to make sure it is not cut off from its space assets during a time of conflict."
How, then, can satellites be defended? They cannot be armored, because every gram counts when launching into space. For the same reason, it is not likely to be cost effective to provide satellites with their own defense systems. The only real way to defend satellites is with a comprehensive anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defense system ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー 宇宙の衛星などによる軍事施設は重要性が増す一方で、中国の衛星破壊は目覚ましのような ものだ、と主張する。
Now the Bush administration is reportedly poised to ask Congress to fund the development of "orbital battle stations," each of which will be able to shoot down ballistic missiles with 40 or 50 infra-red guided projectiles the size of a loaf of bread. ブッシュ政権は、伝えられるところでは、議会に対して「衛星軌道・戦闘ステーション」 の開発予算を申請することを検討している。その戦闘衛星は弾道ミサイルを40〜50個の 赤外線誘導のパンのひと山位の大きさの発射体によって破壊することが出来る。
In this context, we hope administration opponents in Congress will abandon their anachronistic opposition to space-based defense systems. こうしたい見合いから、我々はイスラエル政府、議会が時代遅れの宇宙の軍事化に対する 反対を取り下げることを求める。
It appears you'd better be able to read Chinese if you want to read any of the positive stories out of Iraq these days.(後略) (此の頃では、イラクについてポジティブな記事を読みたいなら、中国語を読めないといけ ないのかもしれない) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 確かに同じニュースのタイトルのつけ方には、リベラルメディアの場合、意図的なイメー ジ操作(お先真っ暗感の強調)があるかもしれない。同じことが、小泉内閣や安倍内閣に 対する国内メディアの報道姿勢にも言えるように思える・・・
このイランのトップ核科学者の死は、モサドに関係があるのだ、という。 Stratfor sources close to Israeli intelligence have revealed, however, that Hassanpour was in fact a Mossad target.
Decapitating a hostile nuclear program by taking out key human assets is a tactic that has proven its effectiveness over the years, particularly in the case of Iraq. In the months leading up to the 1981 Israeli airstrike on Iraq's Osirak reactor -- which was believed to be on the verge of producing plutonium for a weapons program -- at least three Iraqi nuclear scientists died under mysterious circumstances. (敵の核開発計画を排除するために、鍵になる人材を抹殺することは効果的であることが 証明されていて、イスラエルがサダム・フセイン時代の1981年にオシラク原子炉を破壊し た時に、少なくとも3人のイラクの核科学者がミステリアスな状況で死亡している)
A report on Stratfor, the military intelligence site (subscription needed), notes that the mistaken comments made by French President Jacques Chirac this week and later withdrawn (Chirac originally said that even if Iran did have a nuclear weapon or two, it would not really be much of a threat) are probably correct, and that Iran's mullah-led regime just wants to have a bomb in order to protect itself from attack by the US and Israel. But Stratfor goes onto say that Israel, not wanting to take any chances and having realized that an overt attack on Iran is not really possible, is conducting covert activities in Iran, hinting that the recent death of a top Iranian nuclear scientist may be connected to Israel's secret service, the Mossad. ttp://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0202/p99s01-duts.html?s=mesdu posted February 02, 2007 at 12:55 p.m. EST US intelligence report projects deteriorating situation in Iraq
At a January 11th meeting of the General Administration of Press and Publications (GAPP), GAPP's deputy director Wu Shulin produced a list of banned books from 2006 and threatened to slap publishers who defy the ban with stiff financial penalties.
Of the eight books on the list, seven were blackballed because their contents "stepped over the line." Wu did not specify where the that line was, but the message to writers could not have been more clear.(後略)
Dreams from My Father A Story of Race and Inheritance by Barack Obama Three Rivers, 480 pp., $14.95
The Audacity of Hope Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream by Barack Obama Crown, 384 pp., $25 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ウイークリー・スタンダードに掲載された、一風他と異なった、独特の味のあるオバマ論 で、スタイルはオバマの書いた2冊の本の書評のようなものになっているけれど、そういう スタイルで、目指しているのは、本に書かれているオバマ像ではなく、それを通して解析 されるオバマ本人。簡単にはコメントできないけれど、オバマを見る幾つかの視点は参考 になるように思ふ。
Iran is still refusing to back down from what it says is its legal right to develop nuclear technology. But chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani softened his tone regarding the inspection of Iranian nuclear facilities. イランは、核開発はイランの持つ法的権利とする主張を取り下げてはいないが、しかし 核問題交渉代表のAli Larijaniはイランの核施設に対する検査についてトーンを和らげ てきている。
Larijani expressed willingness to allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency to scrutinize Iranian nuclear sites, saying inspections would be permitted, as long as their visits fell within the framework and regulations of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Iran is a signatory to that accord. LarijaniはIAEAの検査員によるイラン核施設への立ち入りがNPTのフレームワーク と規制に従う限り、それを許可すると述べている。イランはNPTの加盟国である。
In an apparent show of openness, Iran's envoy to the IAEA, Ali Ashgar Soltaneih, showed a handful of diplomats from Egypt, Malaysia, Cuba, Algeria and Sudan, as well as an Arab League envoy, around a nuclear facility in the western city of Isfahan on Saturday. The group was also accompanied by dozens of journalists. イランのIAEA大使Ali Ashgar Soltaneihは、エジプト、マレーシア、キューバ、アル ジェリア、スーダン、アラブ連盟(の大使)などの一部の国の大使に対して土曜日にイス ファンの核施設を見学させた。このグループには何ダースかのジャーナリストが同行した。
Soltaneih said the purpose of the visit was to demonstrate Iran's transparency and the peaceful nature of its nuclear program. Soltaneihは、このの見学の目的はイランの核開発が平和目的であり、透明性のあることを 示すため、と述べた。 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- このイラン核施設の見学ツアーに参加した記者が、それぞれ報告を書いていて、読み比べ ると激甘から辛口まで、記者のセンスと力量がわかって、記者による事実報告変化の程度 を検証できる実例ともいえて、ちょっとおもしろい。
Talks in Beijing between U.S. Treasury Department and North Korean officials seeking to resolve the matter that led a Macau bank to freeze $24 million in North Korean funds ended on Wednesday with no sign of a breakthrough.
仁川空港に到着したヒル次官補は、北京で開かれた米朝金融実務協議の結果について 「財務関係者は非常に役立ったと見ている」と評価。協議進展のため「北朝鮮もこうした 議論の価値を理解してほしい」と訴えた。 ------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://tvnz.co.nz/view/page/411749/977894 North Korea urged to comply Feb 4, 2007 ロイター
"Clearly they have got to abandon all their nuclear programmes per the agreement. And we want to get a good start on that. We need some things to happen on the ground," Christopher Hill told Reuters.
"I hope the DPRK (North Korea) sees the value of those discussions because I think a lot of what the DPRK needs to do is to get to begin to work on getting a better reputation in banking circles, and to get out of some practices, which I think have been very harmful to their reputation," Hill said. ------------------------------------------------------------------- >金融界の評判に悪影響を及ぼす数種類の慣行から抜け出さなくてはいけない >「北は金融慣行を改善する必要」
We're only one month into 2007 and the first blog scandal of the 2008 campaign already has erupted. The central character: Amanda Marcotte of Pandagon, who this week accepted a job as "blogmaster" to the presidential campaign of Democrat John Edwards. Part of her job is to write at the campaign blog. 大統領選挙キャンペーンに関わる最初のブログのスキャンダルが起こった。当事者はエドワ ーズ候補が、キャンペーン・ブログを書く為に「ブログ・マスター」として雇ったAmanda Marcotteに関わるものである。
The scandalous storyline: Like all bloggers, Marcotte is fast and loose with her opinions, and her opinion of the infamous rape allegations against lacrosse players at Duke University didn't sit well with some folks. When Marcotte started catching flak for that opinion, she apparently deleted it and started altering other comments at Pandagon. スキャンダルというのは彼女を有名にしたデューク大学のレイプ事件の告発について、それ が一部の人の主張と上手くそりが合わない為に、彼女が以前の主張を削除し、以前とは異な る主張を掲載し始めているというもの。
Some commeters in a forum at TalkLeft called Marcotte a "political liability" to Edwards, and one said that "if she feels this man should be our next president, it might be wise [to] make herself politically correct immediately or resign from the position." (民主党左派のBBSの)TalkLeftの論者は、この件で彼女のエドワーズに対する政治的な 責任("political liability")を問うている「もし彼女がエドワーズが次期大統領に相応し いと思うなら、彼女自身が政治的に正しい態度を示すべきで、直ちに態度を修正するか辞職 するかすべきだ」としている。
As often is the case in politics (and blogging) -- and as a prominent blogger like Marcotte should have known -- the cover-up is worse than the crime. And it doesn't help that Marcotte has been both dismissive and defiant in response to her critics. 政治においても、ブログにおいても、良くあることなのだが、有名なブロガーのMarcotteなら 知っておくべきことは、隠蔽は犯罪よりも悪いのである。しかもMarcotteのやっているような 批判に対する傲慢で拒否的な態度は何の役にも立たない(後略)
Washington, DC Sen. James Inhofe, (R-Okla.), Ranking Member of the Environment & Public Works Committee, today commented on the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Summary for Policymakers.
"This is a political document, not a scientific report, and it is a shining example of the corruption of science for political gain. The media has failed to report that the IPCC Summary for Policymakers was not approved by scientists but by UN political delegates and bureaucrats," Senator Inhofe said. The IPCC is only releasing the Summary for Policymakers today, not the actual scientific report which is not due out until May 2007.
今日のLAタイムズに、フランシス・フクヤマの評論。個人的には余り感心できない ので要約しない。(フクヤマの言いたいことは良くわかるし、こういうものが書かれ るアメリカは少々自信喪失気味にみえるけれど、それ(風潮)が長期的なものになる とも思えない) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/opinion/la-op-fukuyama4feb04,1,31439.story?coll=la-news-comment Relax, it's not the end of the world Despite a few insecurities, the U.S. and global economies are strong enough to handle setbacks and continue growing. By Francis Fukuyama, February 4, 2007
IT IS EASY TO GET very discouraged when surveying the state of the world. Few Americans need to be reminded about the chaos in Iraq, Iran's ambitions as a regional and potentially nuclear power or the possibility of Sunni-Shiite conflict spreading throughout the Persian Gulf.
But there's also the fact that Russia has been regressing politically, using its energy wealth to muscle(ry
In our hemisphere, anti-American populists have been elected in Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador, and are busy centralizing power and reversing the trend(ry
Underlying these worrisome trends is a huge decline in the prestige of the American model, which since the Iraq war has come to be symbolized less by the Statue of Liberty than by the hooded prisoner at Abu Ghraib.
But before we get too discouraged with the state of the world at the beginning of 2007, we should stop to consider a broader context in which things look a lot brighter. The single most notable but overlooked fact about today's world is that the global economy has been driving ahead full speed, raising living standards and closing the gap between the First and Third worlds. The economies of the world's two most populous countries, India and China, have been growing in recent years at nearly 9% and 10%, respectively. A decade after the 1997-98 financial crisis, East Asia as a whole has returned to its torrid pace of development.
What is even more striking than the fact of economic growth has been its robustness. The early years of the 21st century have not been peaceful ones, after all: The world has seen the 9/11 attacks on the United States; horrific bombings in London, Madrid, Istanbul and Bali; two wars in the Middle East and one in Afghanistan; and an enormous increase in commodity prices. Similar shocks in the 1970s sent the global economy into a tailspin, leading to recession and inflation in the U.S., the debt crisis in Latin America and stagnation in Europe. And yet the U.S. economy has not even suffered a technical recession (two back-to-back quarters of declining output) in the last decade.
There are real dangers to being excessively pessimistic at this juncture. Growing numbers of people in the U.S. and Israel believe that Iran represents an existential threat, that it will behave irrationally and therefore cannot be deterred ? and that we consequently have no choice but to preempt. It is this same logic ? that our backs are against the wall ? that led us to the Iraq debacle. But assuming a worst-case outcome is likely to make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.
For all of its stumbles in the last few years, the United States remains a rich and powerful country, with plenty of margin to absorb setbacks and make up for mistakes.
The large part of the world that is modernizing successfully is dependent on us for continued progress, and perhaps for that reason is far less anti-American than those regions mired in conflict and stagnation. There are real risks out there today, but it may help to take a deep breath and assess calmly where we stand. Terrorists use the tools they do because they are weak and have no others.
Americans need to remember that we are the 800-pound gorilla: We have choices, but we need to take care when we throw our weight around.
このデマは、北京で米朝の金融制裁に関する担当者協議が進行し、翌週には6者会合が予定さ れるというタイミングで発生している。北朝鮮と諸外国の会合がスケジュールされていると はいえ、またアメリカ政府は北朝鮮との協議を継続する方針なのであるが、アメリカ政府内 には金正日が核放棄に応じることは、アメリカの提案の如何によらず、ありえないとするコ ンセンサスが広まってきている。 (The US plans to continue the nuclear negotiations even though there is a widening consensus among officials in the US government that Kim has no intention of giving up those weapons, no matter what the US offers.)
北朝鮮は、最近自らを「責任ある核保有国("a responsible nuclear weapons state." )」 と呼び始めた。またアメリカがイラクや中東情勢の混迷に手を焼いていることが北朝鮮を元 気付けているとする指摘もある。アメリカ議会のリサーチ・サービスは、今月の報告書に北 朝鮮が核保有国であることを既成事実化し、核爆弾を公然と製造する意思があると書いてい る。 (The Congressional Research Service in Washington, which prides itself on dispassionate, non-partisan analysis, said in a report this month that North Korea has shown an "intent to stage a 'nuclear breakout' of its nuclear program and openly produce nuclear weapons.")
クリントン政権の国防長官であったウイリアム・ペリーは1月半ばに議会の委員会で証言して 金正日が核爆弾を諦めないのであれば「アメリカは軍事行動を選ばざるを得ないであろう。 それは成功するであろうが、危険な意図しなかった諸結果も生じさせるであろう」と述べた。 (William Perry, the deliberate, cautious Secretary of Defense in the Clinton Administration, told a Congressional committee in mid-January that if Kim does not give up his nuclear weapons, "the United States may be forced to military action which, while it certainly would be successful, could lead to dangerous, unintended consequences.")
こうした金正日の不屈の核開発の姿勢があるのに、何故アメリカは交渉を続けようとするの だろうか?アメリカの政府高官に拠れば、主な理由は外交的な見せ掛けが継続している事を 示す事で、6者会合の失敗に対する非難をかわすことが出来る為である。ある高官は「彼らは 会合が行なわれていることを望んでいて、何も無いよりは会合のあることはよいことなのだ」 (With this mounting evidence of Kim Jong Il's adamant stance, why does the US continue to negotiate? The main reason, say some US officials, is to keep up diplomatic appearances and to escape blame when diplomacy and the Six Party talks fail. Said one official: "They want to keep talking because they think that talking is better than doing nothing.")
アジアタイムズに、北朝鮮ウォッチャーとして著名なDonald Kirk が書いているところ に拠れば、ベルリンでの、ヒル次官補と北朝鮮交渉代表との会合は、北朝鮮の強い希望 により開催されたのだと言う。(北朝鮮側がもちかけた話で、アメリカや中国が提案し たものではない) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/IB03Dg01.html The logic here is that Kim Kye-gwan took the initiative in asking to see Hill, not the other way around, and specified that they should meet not in China but in Berlin, where Hill was scheduled to give a talk at a local college. Away from Chinese pressures, they engaged in intensive discussion for three days, after which North Korea came out with the extraordinary announcement that they had reached "a certain agreement" after talking in "a sincere atmosphere".
The chief U.S. negotiator is splashing some cold water on the optimism that's been preceding this week's North Korean nuclear talks in Beijing.
ヒル国務次官補は来週の北京の6者会合について高まっている楽観論に冷水を浴びせる発言 を行なった。
Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill says the new round of talks between the U.S., North Korea and its neighbors could see agreement on initial steps toward disarmament. But Hill cautions it could take a lot longer for the North to completely scrap its nuclear weapons program. He calls that the "ultimate task." Hill is in Seoul for talks with his South Korean counterpart.
His comments today follow a published report in Japan that North Korea is prepared to shut down the reactor at its main nuclear complex but wants 500,000 tons of crude oil a year in return. ヒル次官補のこの発言は日本のメディアが、北朝鮮は核凍結と引き換えに重油50万トンを 要求する予定、との報道を行なったことに続くコメントである。 (AP通信、2/4/2007 9:42 AM、米国東部時間) U.S. envoy cautious about North Korean disarmament ttp://www.news8austin.com/content/headlines/?ArID=178709&SecID=2
>>196 In truth, this was a glorified photo opportunity, meat and drink for TV stations keen to show their intrepid reporters inside an Iranian nuclear site.
But there was little for a layman to understand while wandering in protective clothing around a maze of pipes, tanks and pressure gauges towards the final section of the plant, which produces the uranium hexafluoride and has a dramatic stench of ammonia. ・・・・ As we changed out of the protective gear, I recognised an Iranian colleague I hadn’t seen since northern Iraq during the 2003 US invasion. “Ah, it’s you,” he said, taking off his mask, and we hugged,remembering quietly and sadly the last time we’d met, before he expressed the sinking feeling we now shared. “Yes, indeed, it looks like another war.”
The lines of battle have pitted hawks, who publicly back the negotiations with the communist North but privately see them as a dead end, against those who favor engagement. "We had warfare going on the entire time I was there," recalls David Straub, a former Korea policy aide who resigned from the State Department last year.
Despite the hurdles at home, current and former administration officials say, Hill now has a greater degree of "running room"-the flexibility, for example, to conduct three days of initially secret bilateral meetings in Berlin with North Korean officials last month. "The president and Secretary [Condoleezza] Rice have told Hill to get a deal," one former senior official tells U.S. News. Adds a serving official, "He's been given a mandate."
北京では財務省と北朝鮮の金融制裁に関する協議が行なわれた。 A senior U.S. official tells U.S. News that North Korea has dropped its demand to lift the financial sanctions before it negotiates on the nuclear question, saying, "They've walked back." 政府の高官が語ったところに拠れば、北朝鮮は6者会合で核問題協議を行なう為の条件としてい た金融制裁解除の要求を取り下げたという。「彼らは一歩引き下がった」
ベルリンでの会議は、より広範な、2005年9月合意の実施についての、実際上のアイデアを協議 するものであった。高官に拠れば、それは「自由な発想で話し合う対話」で「いくつかの問題 を見直す("shake some things loose." )」ものであった。最初のステップとしての核施設の 凍結や、エネルギー支援のアイデアが生まれたと見るむきもある。
Doubts remain, however, that North Korea may be mostly intent on deflecting international pressure. A senior U.S. official says the "sense of urgency" this time exceeds past rounds of talks. But there is also a studied lack of optimism. "No one's confident at all." しかし、疑問は残されていて、北朝鮮が国際的圧力に屈したのかは定かではない。ある高官 は、今回の会合には過去に無かった「進行を急ぐところがある」しかし、楽観視する向きは 少なく「誰も、確かなことは解らない」
Whatever the outcome in Beijing, the sense in Washington is that Bush badly needs a foreign policy "win," and North Korea could be it. "Rice has been given a legacy charge. The clock is ticking," says Pritchard. And patience with the six-party saga is waning. Without toutable progress soon, it just may snap.
>A senior U.S. official tells U.S. News that North Korea has dropped its demand to >lift the financial sanctions before it negotiates on the nuclear question, saying, >"They've walked back." >政府の高官が語ったところに拠れば、北朝鮮は6者会合で核問題協議を行なう為の前提条件 >としていた金融制裁解除の要求を取り下げたという。「彼らは一歩引き下がった」
The U.S. command has ordered changes in flight operations after four helicopters were shot down in the last two weeks, the chief military spokesman said Sunday, acknowledging for the first time that the aircraft were lost to hostile fire.
However, Saturday’s launch appears to be an effort to augment a relatively imprecise system based on three Beidou satellites launched between 2000 and 2003. ----------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://big5.ce.cn/xwzx/gnsz/gdxw/200702/03/t20070203_10302174.shtml 全球衛星導航系統--北斗衛星導航試驗衛星發射成功 02月03日 01:06 中国経済網、新華社
In the geography between the Arabian Sea and the Levant, there is only one country where it is possible to fancy that an elected government could tumble because of the price of tomatoes in the bazaar - Iran. アラビア海からレパントまでの地域で、選挙で選ばれた政権がバザールのトマトの値段で 倒壊する可能性のある国がひとつだけあって、それはイランである。
Ahmadinejad is the first "populist" leader Iranians have known. He is restoring to an extent the "connectivity" of the Iranian regime with the voiceless millions in Iran. アハマディネジャドはイランの最初のポピュリスト指導者であって、イランの声無き数百万 の人々と結びついている。
To Ahmadinejad, Islam is an ideology and a cultural identity. アハマディネジャドにとって、イスラムはイデオロギーであると共に、文化的アイデンティティ である。
But after Khomeini passed away, the Islamic left lost ground in the battle for supremacy. Ahmadinejad represents its second coming. He poses a challenge to powerful sections of the ruling elite. His brand of revolutionary Shi'ism unnerves the conservative clergy. ホメイニの死後、イスラム左派はその至高性(優位性)の戦いにおいて敗れている。アハマデ ィネジャドはその復興をめざす。彼はパワフルな支配階層のエリートに挑戦する。彼のいう 革命的シーア派主義は保守的な聖職者等の力を弱める。
Iran's ruling elite would know that Ahmadinejad 's presidency might well be the last chance for re-establishing the regime's connectivity with the Iranian people. イランの支配階級のエリートは知っているだろうがアハマディネジャド大統領はイランの大衆 と政権を結びつけるラストチャンスであり得ることだろう。
The bazaar has signaled to Ahmadinejad in unmistakable terms. Iranian media reports show that from January to late August last year prices of fruit and vegetables in urban areas rose by 20%. During the Ramadan season, the price of fruit doubled and that of chicken increased by 20%. By October, in the run-up to the recent elections that Ahmadinejad "lost", his approval rating dropped to 35%. イランのバザールはアハマディネジャドに明確なサインを送っている。昨年の1-8月で野菜と 果物は20%値上がりした。ラマダン期間中にチキンは20%、果物は2倍になった。10月の選挙 ではアハマディネジャドの支持率は35%に下落した。
The nexus between Shi'ism and the bazaar is age-old. What prospects does Ahmadinejad have by tilting at the windmills of this historic nexus? Gripes over the price of tomatoes could after all form part of a critique. (筆者は元インドのキャリア外交官)
A couple of things are worth considering here. One, when you think about what Cheng said, the biggest surprise is that Chinese stocks didn't fall more. You have to wonder if his 30/ 70 comment is too optimistic given China's lack of corporate transparency and government efforts to slow the economy.
Two, even after the Jan. 31 plunge, this year's gain is still 17 percent. No, that's not a typographical error. If stocks had ended unchanged on that day, they would be up almost 25 percent in little more than four weeks. How is that not a bubble?
One can argue that after a long period of lackluster performance, China's share markets are playing catch-up. Yet the idea that a multiyear rally in Chinese shares is afoot lacks support from the underlying economy.
Untold numbers of bad loans in banks? No problem, we have growth pushing 11 percent, Chinese officials seem to be saying. Raising hundreds of millions out of poverty? We have rapid growth. Stock exchanges that look more like Ponzi schemes than markets? Again, we'll grow our way to health.
Chinese stocks may one day be a stellar investment. At the moment, they seem more like the casinos that Chinese law forbids. 中国株式は何時の日にか優れた投資対象になるであろう。今のところは、それはカジノに近いよ うに見えるのだが。
If either U.S. trade policy or Chinese monetary policy goes awry, then the Fed model could return to the bond market with a vengeance. Then, and only then, will it be possible dismiss Chimerica as -- a chimera. (もしもこの二つが拙くなるとFEDモデル(債券利回りと株式益回りの連携性)が戻ってき て債券市場が値上がりするだろう。その場合にはChimericaをキメラとして、見放すことになる のだろう)
MOSCOW, February 5 (RIA Novosti) - North Korea may agree to suspend its nuclear weapons program in exchange for energy supplies and the construction of light-water reactors, a Japanese pro-Pyongyang newspaper said Monday.
The Korean-language Choson Shinbo said Pyongyang may freeze its main nuclear power plant at Yongbyon, which produces weapons-grade plutonium, if the United States resumes oil deliveries to the country, and a U.S.-led consortium follows through with the construction of light-water reactors pledged under a 1994 deal.
North Korea's willingness to shut down the facility "is based on the premise that it will be dismantled," the paper said.(後略)
``We must implement the full statement, meaning that the DPRK must get out of the nuclear business entirely,'' Hill, the U.S.'s top negotiator at the six-party talks, told reporters at Haneda Airport in Tokyo today on his arrival from Seoul.
ヘリコプターの問題に留まらず、より大きな疑問がここにはあって、誰が武装派に武器 を支給し、訓練を行い、イラクの内戦を支援しているのか?対航空機の武器のようなも のを支給するのは誰か?ヘリコプター攻撃以外にどんな武器を供給しているのか?先端 的な武器はその使用のための知識経験や訓練が必要である。もしもスンニ派の武装派が そうした武器や訓練を外部から受けているのであれば、それは誰かがアメリカに対抗す るための戦略的決定を下したことを意味する。その黒幕はイランかもしれないが、もし スンニ派の武装派が先進的武器を持っているのであれば、それは別の存在であろう。 (If this is the case -- and it is not at all certain that it is -- it would mean someone has made a strategic decision to take on the United States head-on. It could be the Iranians, but if the Sunni insurgents have improved weapons as well, then it likely would be someone else.)
In fact, Kim has far more ambitious goals than mere survival. He has made clear his aim of ruling over a unified Korean Peninsula, and there is every reason to think that he means it. The only thing that would truly make him feel secure would be the withdrawal of the United States, not only from South Korea, but all of East Asia. 金正日は、多くの分析の言うような政権の存続だけがゴールであるのではなく、遥かに 野心的であって、彼は統一朝鮮半島の支配を明言している。彼が安全であると感じるた めにはアメリカが朝鮮半島から撤退するだけでは駄目で、東アジア全てから撤退する必 要があるだろう。
<6者会合が成果を出せないのは、中国などの中途半端な姿勢の為>
While the United States and Japan have followed through on both halves of the "talk and squeeze" strategy, China and South Korea have not. Indeed, to the contrary, since the current standoff began, both have increased their assistance to the North, effectively buffering it against pressure. Present policy has failed, not because the United States has been too tough and unyielding, but because China, South Korea, and the U.N. Development Program have been too soft.
Persuading Beijing to change course therefore depends on convincing it that continued passivity is riskier than action. In 2002 and early 2003 China's leaders believed that Washington might very well use force against the North, and they may have feared that the Japanese were about to embark on their own nuclear program. Deeply concerned about the direction of Bush administration policy in East Asia, and eager to improve relations with Washington, Beijing probably also believed that its performance on the North Korean issue would be seen as a litmus test and could determine the future course of its relations with the United States.
Today, despite expressions of concern over "tensions on the Korean peninsula," China's leaders are far more relaxed. Washington has effectively taken the use of force off the table, assured Beijing that Japan will not go nuclear, and made clear its commitment to maintaining close ties with China, regardless of what it does, or fails to do, on North Korea. Given all this, it is far easier, indeed, much more rational, for Beijing to hold to its existing policy.
Second, instead of endlessly praising Beijing for its thus far fruitless efforts, the administration should make clear that failure to bring the North Korean issue to a satisfactory resolution will inevitably have consequences for U.S.-China relations.
Finally, the U.S. government needs to make clear that, regardless of how events unfold, it will do what is necessary to defend its own interests and to help its Asian allies defend theirs. If North Korea's nuclear programs are not rolled back, Washington cannot be expected indefinitely to be able to keep the Japanese nuclear genie in the bottle.
Washington can lead a regional coalition to contain and deter North Korea and to work toward a unified, democratic Korean peninsula. This may require, among other things, a larger U.S. military presence off China's coasts, more aggressive interdiction efforts against North Korean ships and aircraft, more attempts to help North Korean citizens escape, and greater integration of missile defense and other programs with Japan and perhaps also South Korea and Taiwan.
アジアタイムズ:悪化の兆候の見られる米中関係 By Benjamin A Shobert ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ビジネス・コンサルタントの書いているアメリカ国内の対中関係の雰囲気の悪化について の評論で、米中経済安全保証評議会(USCC)の最近のヒアリングを元に論じている。
USCCで、中国の衛星破壊が大きな問題とされた(人民開放軍の横暴)ことについて During the question-and-answer period following the testimony from Lawless, Commissioner Larry Wortzel asked whether Beijing had filed NOTAMs (notices to airmen) in advance of the test, or whether it had notified any of the same international bodies such as the International Air Traffic Association that China had previously made aware, in July 1995, of its missile test-firing in the Taiwan strait. Because China provided no similar notification prior to the recent ASAT test, Washington is forced to wonder what to make not only of the test itself, but of Beijing's opacity in providing internationally accepted notification and warnings.
Beijing's decision to go forward with the ASAT may have a particularly unexpected consequence: increased resistance to providing China with access to dual-use technology. Washington now must consider whether US technology found its way into the various components used in the test. When asked about this, Lawless provided a less-than-illuminating response - "We know what we know" - and went on to suggest that any disclosure related to that particular question would need to be addressed in a venue with a higher security classification.
このほか、USCCのヒアリングでJames Mannの発言が特に注目された、と書いている。 In Mann's written testimony he stated, "What if China manages to continue on its current economic path and yet its political system does not change in any fundamental way?
"What if, 25 or 30 years from now, a wealthier, more powerful China continues to be run by a one-party regime that continues to repress organized political dissent much as it does today; and yet at the same time China is also open to the outside world and, indeed, is deeply intertwined with the rest of the world through trade, investment and other economic ties? Everyone assumes that the Chinese political system is going to open up - but what if it doesn't?"
Former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, a Republican presidential contender acclaimed for his leadership after the September 11 attacks, took a largely symbolic step closer to an official White House run on Monday. Giuliani refiled papers with the Federal Election Commission establishing a committee to explore a presidential bid, which allows him to raise money, travel and hire staff. ジュリアーニ前市長は連邦選挙管理員会に書類を提出して、選挙の調査と準備の為の評議会を 設立することを明らかにした。象徴的な、大統領選出馬への動きと見られる。
ttp://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RS21473.pdf Updated January 3, 2007 North Korean Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States Steven A. Hildreth Specialist in National Defense Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division
The R-27, which was allegedly acquired from Russia in the 1990s and possibly enhanced with the help of Russian missile specialists, has been called an “excellent choice” on which to base a new missile system.32 Its 40 year-old, liquid-fuelled technology is considered within the technological and industrial capabilities of North Korea and versions of its engines are already used in North Korean SCUDs and No Dongs. Perhaps the greatest advantage of this system is that the R-27 is a proven design meaning that North Korea may be able to develop and deploy these missiles without having to conduct extensive ground and flight tests. ・・・・ ・・・・ Security Implications. DPRK systems potentially increase the missile threat to the United States. If the new missiles are indeed closely modified versions of the R-27, they are likely more accurate and have greater range than other DPRK missiles. Some analysts believe that the sea-launched version could pose the greatest threat by threatening the continental United States. These experts suggest that a North Korean sea-launched missile capability could complicate intelligence collection efforts as well as present challenges for South Korean, Japanese, and U.S. ballistic missile defense systems.
Others, however, are skeptical that North Korea can reach the continental United States with the new sea-based version. Anonymous U.S. government officials have reportedly stated that North Korea does not presently have a submarine that is capable of transporting a missile within striking distance of the continental United States.35 These officials also expressed doubt that North Korea had intentions of developing a missile to hide inside a freighter to be used against targets in the United States.36
After the purge of Chen, it was widely speculated that Hu's anti-graft campaign to purify the party would soon target Huang Ju, Chen's predecessor in Shanghai, and Jia Qingling for his suspected role in the Yuanhua smuggling case. Then another rumor said Jiang had summoned Hu to tell him that if Jia and Huang were to go, then Wen Jiabao had to resign as well.
Shortly afterward, another rumor had it that Wu Bangguo had expressed a desire to retire and had suggested that all others older than himself should also voluntarily step down, paving the way for Hu to organize his own team. If Wu's proposal were to be accepted, only Hu and Wen would be eligible to stay for another five-year term.
Then lately, it was reported that Hu was being urged to cede the office of the presidency to Zeng Qinghong for a better division of power.
Political analysts in Beijing tend to dismiss such rumors as premature as there are still months to go before the Congress convenes. In Chinese politics a single day can make a big difference. However, the spread of such rumors reflects the existence of factions within the party. And analysts point out that as long as factional activities remain underground, there is no way to stop the spread of political rumors.
ヒラリーの発言は: "I want to take those profits and put them into an alternative energy fund that will begin to fund alternative smart energy, alternatives that will actually begin to move us toward the direction of independence,"
IBDの噛み付いているところは: Threatening to hijack private property in the energy industry is a serious matter.
This, of course, is not Clinton's first attempt to nationalize a key U.S. industry. As co-president with husband Bill, she was behind a plan that would have seized about 15% of the economy. It would also have taken medical care decisions out of the hands of patients and doctors and put them in the hands of government bureaucrats.
For Americans who value freedom, both personal and economic, Sen. Clinton's socialist ambitions and lust for power are troubling, to say the least.
As the elections near, Abe is likely to take an even more vocal and hard-line stance against North Korea, exaggerating the sense of crisis in order to demonstrate his leadership and the need to unify the nation under a single, strong leader. But if China continues to provoke Japan, Abe will shift his sights to Beijing, bringing back the tensions between the two states seen last year.
The solution is to achieve a more dynamic, diversified and better-balanced economy by breaking down market barriers and creating new opportunities at home. Yet as well as shrinking from cutting the chaebol down to size, Seoul is soft-pedalling regulatory reforms while antagonising inward investors whose presence would stimulate competition and innovation.
In truth, policy is stuck in a time warp, in which the interests of the chaebol and of the economy are viewed as much the same. But if the notion of "Korea Inc" ever made sense, it is now a self-inflicted handicap. Unless discarded, it risks becoming a formula for national stagnation and ossification. (ossification:【名-1】《医》骨化、【名-2】 〈比喩的〉(習慣などの)固定化)
高氏は、同省農村部での売血によるエイズ被害の実態を告発するなどエイズ対策に尽力し ており、新たな実態暴露を警戒する当局が訪米を阻止しようとしたものと見られる。(後略) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/05/AR2007020500074.html China bars AIDS doctor from U.S. for award: activist Reuters Monday, February 5, 2007; 1:14 AM
"This completely blocks her human rights and freedom," Hu Jia, an AIDS campaigner who lives under house arrest in Beijing, told Reuters by telephone.
Gao had been invited to the Vital Voices annual awards in Washington in March where she was to be honored for her work, according to an invitation letter from the group, supported by Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, forwarded by Hu.
One small but provocative line-item in President Bush's budget request for the coming year is the request by the U.S. Treasury for $385,000 in new funds for its Office of Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes to "disrupt and dismantle rogue regimes."
According to Treasury, it would use the money to hire additional policy advisors to cover North Korea, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and Central Asia "on pressing financial issues." この予算は新しい担当者を雇用し、北朝鮮、アフガニスタン、パキスタンインド、中央アジア などの金融問題にあたらせる。
Reading between the lines, it appears that Treasury wants the additional staff to focus on building cases for designating particular front-companies and bank accounts associated with proliferators and terrorists, leveraging the authorities it has by having the staff to actually do the work needed adequately to prepare the cases and to fan out on the related diplomacy required to let counterparts know about USG intentions.
>>266 NHKのインタビュアーの氏名が書いてないけれど、全体を読んでみて、このインタビュアー のセンスに驚き呆れるところが多い。あいた口がふさがらない。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QUESTION: My friend from the Chinese diplomats, he just mentioned some dissatisfaction over the Japanese Government, you know, insisting on something on the abductees issues. They just always complain that that's an obstacle for the further progress on the Six -Party Talks. So I see some gaps in the perception between Japan and other countries. So how can you just persuade the Japanese Government?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Well, you know, I don't know who your friends are in the Chinese Foreign Ministry, but the Chinese Foreign Ministry people I talked to understand that this is a big issue for Japan, and the Japanese Government cannot ignore this issue. So I think the Chinese try to look at these problems with a sense of realism, and the reality is it's an issue. So we'll see what we can do.
I think what's important is to try to create a mechanism where you can sit down with the North Koreans. I mean, the Japanese Government can sit down with the North Koreans and begin to have some discussion about this. You know, the Six-Party Talks ? it's a very broad platform, and we can launch several initiatives off of this platform.
There are a number of initiatives, for example U.S.-North Korea bilateral issues can be addressed through the Six-Party process. In fact, if we can get through denuclearization, and if we can get that implemented and moving forward, we can also look at the very important task for the Korean people, on the Korean Peninsula, to see how they can begin to deal with the problem of replacing the armistice with a peace treaty.
ttp://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/2007/02/nick_kristof_te.html Nick Kristof, Tear Down This Wall February 06, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------- ジャスト・ワン・ミニッツ・ブログ。NYTの論説委員(影響力はNYT内部で小さくない) ニコラス・クリスストフのアンチブッシュ評論を批判しているもの。まあクリストフは共産 党員といっていい程度の(ロジャー・L・サイモンの定義によれば)反米主義者のようなの で、こういう評論を書くことは不思議ではないのだけれど。
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Well, you know, I have trouble with the idea that there's a breakthrough on energy. I mean, the North Koreans would take energy assistance anytime, so there's no need for a breakthrough there.
The breakthrough needs to be on the other side, on getting them to start the process of denuclearization. I mean, as we sit here ? as we sit here today in Tokyo ? they are running a reactor for the purpose of making weapons-grade plutonium. So every minute that we have this interview, they are making the problem worse. So we have to get that stopped and then get on with the task of denuclearization.
Now all of this other stuff, you know ? energy and things like that ? that's all envisioned in the September statement. But nothing's going to be possible without steps toward denuclearization.
So, when I get to Beijing later this week, I’ll talk to the Chinese and see what they really have in mind. I don’t think the DPRK would want to take some additional provocations in terms of additional tests. This would not really be, frankly speaking, in the spirit of what we’re trying to accomplish in the Six-Party Talks.
The Bush administration has come under greater pressure to deal with North Korea after it tested a nuc-lear weapon for the first time last year. 昨年の北朝鮮の核実験以降、ブッシュ政権は北朝鮮問題に対処すべきとする圧力が増している。
But the White House believes Mr Kim is also under pressure to reach an agreement because of the financial sanctions, and also because of increased pressure from China. But David Albright, a US nuclear expert who met government officials in Pyong-yang last week, said North Korea did not appear under pressure. ホワイトハウスは金正日が金融制裁のために、また中国からの圧力の為に、問題に対処すべし との大きな圧力を受けていると信じている。
“North Korea feels the US is making a mistake by putting all their eggs in the Chinese basket,” said Mr Albright. オルブライト氏は「北朝鮮はアメリカが北朝鮮問題の全ての交渉を中国に依存することで誤り を犯したと感じている」という。
The US official said South Korea would take the lead in providing energy assistance and food aid, which North Korea badly needs following a bad grain harvest in 2006. In return, Pyongyang would agree to freeze its plutonium reactor as the first stage of a process that, from the US perspective, would have to lead to complete disarmament, including the removal of North Korea’s stockpile of plutonium. アメリカ政府高官は、北朝鮮が2006年の穀物不作により必要としている食料とエネルギーの支 援を韓国が主導して行なうだろうと述べている。その見返りに、北朝鮮は核の完全な廃棄のプ ロセスの第一歩としての、プルトニウム原子炉の凍結に合意するであろう。核の完全廃棄には 北朝鮮の貯蔵してきたプルトニウムの廃棄が含まれる。
ttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/8eeb22ea-b61c-11db-9eea-0000779e2340.html US signals scope for ties with N Korea By Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington Published: February 6 2007 22:00 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- このFTの記事は、アメリカが北朝鮮との関係正常化のために、テロ支援国家指定のブラック リストからの除去を検討しているとか書いていて、些か眉唾な感じがするのだけれど、それは 「北朝鮮が核廃棄をコミットして前進の見られる場合」という条件なので、なんとも言いがた いところ。
ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/80129.htm Press Availability With Director-General Kenichiro Sasae Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Ministry of Foreign Affairs Tokyo, Japan February 6, 2007
国務省ファイル;ヒル次官補、佐々江外務省アジア太洋州局長の共同会見、2月6日 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/80128.htm Press Availability With LDP Policy Research Council Chairman Shoichi Nakagawa Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Liberal Democratic Party Headquarters Tokyo, Japan February 6, 2007
国務省ファイル;ヒル国務次官補、自民党中川政調会長の共同会見、2月6日 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/80126.htm Remarks to Journalists after Meeting with Foreign Minister Aso Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Ministry of Foreign Affairs Tokyo, Japan February 6, 2007
国務省ファイル;麻生外相と会見後の、ヒル国務次官補の記者へのコメント、2月6日 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/80133.htm Remarks to Reporters at Okura Hotel Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Tokyo, Japan February 6, 2007
Still, most at the bargaining table agree that disappointing talks are better than no talks, given what a cornered, desperate and extremely proud North Korea might do if left to its own devices. For decades, it has kept its citizens in near-permanent readiness for war, and in October tested a nuclear weapon during a 15-month lapse in negotiations.
"As long as some progress is made, it's a good thing," said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at People's University in Beijing. "But given that North Korea already has nuclear weapons, and sanctions imposed by the international community remain relatively mild, it's hard to have too much faith."
約1万人の受刑者がいるという同収容所は山中深い場所にあり、高い鉄条網が周囲に張ら れている。脱走者は収容者外にいた車両に乗って、逃げており、外部の協力者がいるとも 伝えた。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.strategypage.com/qnd/korea/articles/20070207.aspx The Great Escape February 7, 2007:
North Korea has several dozen prison camps, holding up to 200,000 people, mostly for political prisoners (or those considered a threat to the rule of Kim Jong Il). However, it is believed that this escape was of "economic", not "political" prisoners. The escape involved some bribes, and quite a bit of equipment (fence cutters, night vision gear for the lookouts, getaway cars). There is a growing criminal class in North Korea, and this may have been some gangsters taking care of business. The political prisoners are more closely guarded than the "economic" ones.
脱走事件を伝えた、オリジナルとも言うべき「デイリーNK」の記事↓このメディアは脱北者 などの情報ソースが豊富なことに特色のある特異なメディアだけど、ソースの信憑性の検証は 難しい。 ---------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk00100&num=1641 120 Prisoners Escape a North Korean Political Concentration Camp Unprecedented case at Hwasung Camp 16, North Hamkyung province By Kim Young Jin, of China [2007-02-06 15:14 ]
“In order to assist the escape, the outside collaborator not only provided the metal saw but also had a vehicle on standby” said the source and added “Most of the people that escaped were defectors were caught in China while attempting to flee to South Korea and then forcibly repatriated back to North Korea. They were in the midst of awaiting a trial.”
Some observe that the success of this escape will depend on how far the outsider’s cooperation and vehicle will take the prisoners from the camp.
The source said “In the past if a person was caught without a travel permit he/she would be escorted back to his/her hometown and be investigated there. However, now people are taken to the Safety Agency in Chongjin to clarify their birth origin. Undoubtedly, something big has occurred.”
The Hwasung concentration camp 16 in Kochang-li is known to be detaining 10,000 people.
Contrastingly, it was confirmed that many of the prisoners from this escape were caught in China while attempting to defect to South Korea and ultimately dragged back to the concentration camps. The focus now lies on the response of the South Korean government.
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Four Iraqi military officers are being held over the kidnapping this week of an Iranian diplomat in Baghdad, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari said on Wednesday. "Those detained are military officers," Zebari told a news conference, adding they were being questioned over who had ordered the abduction.
The issue is not confined to Australia and is felt more in Europe than the US, where nationhood is more aggressively founded on a binding loyalty to a defined set of core values. Elsewhere in the West, a renewed clamour for national identity is a predictable and overdue response to the permissive extremes of the decades-long embrace of no-rules multiculturalism. オーストラリアも例外ではないが、欧州においては米国以上に(国への)忠誠心を基本的な 価値観に結びつける動きが見られ、それ(ナショナル・アイデンティティ)は何十年もの間 続いてきた無法的・多文化主義の極度の許容主義への反発でもある。
These themes are explored by Francis Fukuyama, professor of international political economy at Johns Hopkins School of International Studies, who says that if existing citizens do not sufficiently value their national citizenship, they can scarcely expect newcomers to value it. The potential cost of inaction is evident in comments by Middle East Forum director Daniel Pipes in The Australian today that opinion surveys in Britain consistently show 50 per cent of British Muslims would like to see the introduction of sharia Islamic law. This is akin to exchanging the constitution for the Koran. この問題についてジョンホプキンス大学のフランシス・フクヤマが指摘しているのだが、もし 市民が国民的市民権を充分に尊重していないときには、彼らは新しく移民して入ってくるイス ラムの人たちがそれを尊重することを期待できない。中東フォーラムの理事長であるダニエル パイプスがオーストラリアン・トディに書いている英国で行なわれた世論調査の例では、英国 のイスラム住民は50%がシャリア法(慣習的イスラム法)の導入を望んでいる。それは、いわば 憲法の代わりにコーランを採用するようなものである。
The Guardian, Nick Cohen repudiates his left-wing heritage and outlines how the postmodern thought has bred the conditions for greater intolerance, such as that in Cronulla. It was the Left's capacity to support Saddam Hussein against coalition intervention that prompted Cohen's reappraisal, which has only been reinforced as his former comrades have also refused to speak out against the sectarian violence that has now laid siege to Baghdad, lest criticism be construed as support for the US. He argues that the death of socialism - disgraced by the communists' atrocities and floored by the success of market-based economies - has brought a dark liberation to people who consider themselves to be on the liberal Left. It has freed them to go along with any movement, however far to the Right it may be, as long as it is against the status quo in general and the US in particular. ガーディアンにはNick Cohenが左翼の立場からこの問題に触れていて、ポストモダン思想が 如何に不寛容の思想、例えばCronullaのような、を育てる条件を整えたのかを論じている。 彼は多国籍軍に反対してサダムを擁護する立場で、今バクダッドで起こってる宗教対立によ る暴力抗争に反対を唱えることを拒否する。彼は社会主義の死が、それは共産主義者の虐殺 や市場経済の流れによるものであるが、自分をリベラル左派とする人たちに暗い(暗黒の) 開放をもたらしたとする。その流れは、様々に変化し極右に流れたり、アメリカ支配の現状 安定に対する挑戦などに向かうという。
Unfortunately for the West, the liberal tolerance shown by the Left to minority groups has not always come with reciprocal obligations. Professor Fukuyama argues that Europe's failure to better integrate its Muslim population is a ticking time bomb that has already contributed to terrorism. 西欧において不幸なことには、左翼のマイノリティに対して示したリベラルな許容性は、必 ずしも常に相互的な責務にはなっていないことだ。フクヤマ教授の言うように欧州のイスラ ムの同化の失敗は、すでにテロの原因ともなっているように、時限爆弾なのだ。(後略) --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ナショナリズムが西欧諸国で高まってきていることを分析し、その直接のトリガーである テロやイスラム過激主義、移民との文化摩擦、多文化主義による移民の同化失敗に触れて いる。ナショナリズムが生まれるべき理由を、社会主義の死と、フランシス・フクヤマの 言うところの国民的(市民社会的)な基本的価値観のセットに自己の文化や国家への評価 があるはず、という論拠に求める。自らが、それを確立し尊重できないならば、欧州社会 に新規参入してくるイスラム移民がそれ(欧州的な文化・社会的価値観)を尊重するわけ も無い、と論じる。
Professor Fukuyama advocates a two-pronged approach involving changes in behaviour by immigrant minorities and their descendants as well as by members of the dominant national communities.
First, it is necessary to recognise that the old multicultural model has not been a success and has led to demands for group rights that cannot be squared with liberal principles of individual equality. (多文化主義の失敗を認めるべき。個人の自由平等の尊重原則だけでは不十分)
Second, national identity must be clearly defined and expressed. (ナショナル・アイデンティティの確率と明示)
Both things are evident in Australia, with the reappraisal of multiculturalism as an open-cheque policy and the introduction of more stringent citizenship requirements. For Professor Fukuyama, a failure to be clear on national identity leaves a society vulnerable to being overwhelmed by those with a much better defined sense of community identity. Professor Fukuyama's view that jihadism is aided by the quest for identity spawned by migration to non-Muslim countries is particularly so if host countries fail to offer meaningful economic and cultural integration.
Brian Bridges, a professor of politics at Ling An University in Hong Kong, said that last week’s Beijing meeting appeared to end without a breakthrough, though he noted some speculation that the United States may agree to a compromise that would declare a portion of the frozen Banco Delta Asia money “clean.” Mr. Bridges said he thought that this week’s talks may, at best, set up working groups for discussing individual issues, like denuclearization or the financial sanctions. 香港のLing An大学の政治学教授であるBrian Bridgesは、先週の北京で行なわれた米朝の金融 制裁関連の協議でブレークスルーの無かったことをさして、一部にあったBDAの口座の一部 を凍結解除するのではとの憶測に触れて、今週の6者会合は最良の場合でも幾つかのワーキン グ・グループの設定に終わるのではないかと言う。核廃棄とか金融制裁のワーキング・グルー プを設定する(だけ)。
But he said that achieving more sweeping progress was unlikely. “I’m not too optimistic,” he said. “I don’t think there is going to be a major breakthrough.” 彼は「私は楽観的にはなれない。主要なブレークスルーが起きるとは思えない」という。
ヒル次官補は8日午前、北京で記者団に「(いかなる文書にも)調印はしていない」と述 べたが、次官補は初期の措置は数週間のうちに実施されるとの楽観的な見通しを示してお り、北京で8日午後から再開する6か国協議は、この米朝間の合意に沿った形で議論が進 められる可能性が高い。(後略) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/02/07/nkorea.talks.reut/ NK talks resume, U.S. denies deal POSTED: 10:04 p.m. EST, February 7, 2007 CNN・ロイター
Japan's Asahi Shimbun daily reported that North Korea and the United States had signed a memorandum in Berlin last month in which Pyongyang agreed to move towards shutting down its nuclear reactor in exchange for aid. Top U.S. envoy Christopher Hill said the report was wrong. 日本の朝日新聞は米朝が先月ベルリンの協議で核凍結と支援の取り補記に関わる文書にサイ ンしたと報じたが、ヒル国務次官補はその記事は誤りであると否定した。
"We did not sign anything," he told reporters. 「我々はサインなぞしていない」と記者に語った。(後略) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 日本のメディアだけが、他の外電などには全く見られない「米朝調印」を「北朝鮮に近い米朝 関係筋」とかをソースに報じていて、極めて奇妙。そんなソースがあり、合意があるのであれ ば何故日本のメディア以外には漏れてこないのか全く理解できない。しかもヒル次官補が否定 しても、読売は依然として「合意がある」と主張している。そこまで主張するのであれば説得 力のある証拠なり証言を提示しないと、報道として余りにもおかしいと思う。
Commented by koku さん 私は英語力不足なので、失礼と思うのですが、2ちゃんでの拾いものについてお尋ねしたいのです。 NHK記者によるヒル次官補との6者会議に関するインタビューなのですが (略) 私の理解では:私の友人の中国外交官達は、日本政府が拉致を主張することに不満足だと言った。 6者会議の進展を妨げる邪魔ものだと不満を述べている。だから、私は日本や他国の間には(6者 会議にたいする)理解の差があると思う。それで、あなたはどのように日本政府を説得するのだろう。
朝日新聞と読売新聞の言う「米朝ベルリン合意」について・・・ ------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2007/79315.htm Daily Press Briefing Sean McCormack, Spokesman Washington, DC January 24, 2007 国務省ディリー記者会見記録、1月24日(部分抜粋)
Q:北朝鮮のKim Gye Gwanは、ベルリンの会議が大変上手くいったと述べている、これについ て、その内容は? A:それはない・・ Q:次回の6者会合の前提条件・・ A:北朝鮮はアメリカに加えて6者会合のほかのメンバーの国とも協議している。北朝鮮の態度 に観測できるものは、それは非公式なものだが、全快の6者会合で我々の提示したアイデア に対する彼らの反応の可能性であろうと思う。 今の時点で、私が思うに、北朝鮮代表は我々がテーブルに挙げている提案に対する、フルセ ットの反応の指示を、本国から得ていないだろう。 (At that point, the -- I don't think the North Korean delegation had their full set of instructions in terms of how to respond to some of the ideas that were on the table.) 彼らは、先の6者会合で我々の提示した事について熟慮する時間があったのだろう。 いずれにせよ、本当のテストは、(来るべき)交渉でどう言う事になるのかということだ。 (But again, the real test is what happens in a set of negotiations.)
しかし司法の独立は困難な問題であって判事が直接的な圧力を受けずとも、社会的に経営者等 と同じネットワークの属している、と韓国のコーポレート・ガバナンス改善センター(Korea's Center for Good Corporate Governance)前理事のKim Joo Youngが言っている。多くの韓国人 は財閥の経営者等は韓国経済にとって必要不可欠のものと考えている。長期的な経済発展のため には企業犯罪のクリーンアップが、腐敗した経営者を保護するよりも、良い影響を与えるとする 考え方は一般大衆に支持されない。
韓国においてより将来を感じさせることは、株主の企業経営者への抗議運動などが広がっている ことで、特に個人株主においてそれが見られる。参加型民主主義への民衆連帯(People's Solidarity for Participatory Democracy)というグループは企業行動の透明性を求めて活動 している。しかし、この活動はSKコーポレーションの例に見られる言うに限界がある。コーポ レートガバナンス改善の為に機関投資家の姿勢を変えるには不十分なところがあった。多くの投 資家は悪いコーポレート・ガバナンスを(株価の)ディスカウントでのみ対処する。現代自動車 の株価は会長の犯罪で大きく下落した。
With a pen stroke, Australian Prime Minister John Howard recently ended a concept that has dominated Australian immigration policy for more than 30 years: multiculturalism. A nation of immigrants, Australia has long tussled with two competing ideas about how to integrate new citizens.
Traditionalists wanted immigrants to shed their past and adopt mainstream Australian values; multiculturalists wanted them to retain the cultural allegiances of their old countries intact. 伝統主義者は移民が過去を捨てて、オーストラリア価値観のメインストリームに適応することを 求め、多文化主義者は移民が彼らの祖国の文化への忠誠を保持することを求めた。 (後略) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- オーストラリアで(カナダも同じようなものだけれど)左翼の圧倒的な支持を得ていた多文化主 義が大衆の支持を失ってきていて、そのトリガーになったのはイスラム過激派のオーストラリア 国内における行動や海外のテロリストとの連携が明らかになったことだと言う。
Question: Any response to the Japanese Foreign Minister's comments the other day about U.S. Iraq policy and has there been any communication with the Japanese Government either before his comments or after his comments? 日本の麻生外相のイラク政策への(批判)コメントについて、このコメントの前後に日本政府 とのコミニュケーションはあるかどうか?
Answer: We consider Japan to be a strong and close partner in the War on Terror, and the United States very much appreciates Japan's support for coalition efforts in Iraq. We note that Foreign Minister Aso has pledged that Japan would continue to closely consult and cooperate with the United States regarding Iraq. We maintain constant and close communications with the Government of Japan on a wide range of issues, but we do not comment on the specific content of private diplomatic conversations. アメリカ政府は日本国をテロとの戦いにおける強力なパートナーと見なしており、日本国の イラクでの協力を高く評価している。イラク政策に関して麻生外相は日米の親密な対話と協 力を約束している。アメリカ政府は日本政府との間で広範な諸問題への継続的な対話、コミ ニュケーションを続けるものであるが、特定の、個人的な外交政策へのコメントに関してコ メントすることは行なわない。
ヒル国務次官補は、如何なる文書にもサインしていないといっている。 But Pyongyang has said "a certain agreement" was reached in Berlin. And a diplomatic source in China said a non-binding document was signed in Berlin, with the U.S. holding out energy aid in return for North Korea freezing its Yongbyon nuclear plant, which produces plutonium that can be used in weapons. しかし北朝鮮は「ある種の合意」がベルリンで達成されたといっている。中国の外交筋はベル リンで非拘束の文書が調印されたという。それはヨンビョンの核施設凍結に対する見返りに アメリカがエネルギー支援を行なうというものであるという。 ttp://today.reuters.com/news/articlebusiness.aspx?type=tnBusinessNews&storyID=nSP211137&pageNumber=2&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=BizArt-C1-ArticlePage2 UPDATE 6-Fingers crossed, no handshake yet, for North Korea Wed Feb 7, 2007 11:20pm ET145
(ラルフ・A・コサの見解) 1)アメリカ人、オルブライトとウィットの訪朝とメッセージについて、それは二人を 「前交渉の材料に使う」「古臭いやり方」であって、真剣な6者会合の交渉の前にそう いうやり方をするのは「無責任」 but to report on North Korea's demands "a day or two before sensitive negotiations" was "the height of irresponsibility".
2)北朝鮮はウラン濃縮について、全く触れていないが、それを除外して交渉進展という チャンスは少ない。 Without acknowledgement by Pyongyang of its "clandestine enrichment program", said Cossa, "prospects for any real progress are slim".
- December 15, 2003. It is clear by now that no large stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction will be found in Iraq. But Mrs. Clinton tells the Council on Foreign Relations that "Yesterday was a good day. I was thrilled that Saddam Hussein had finally been captured. . . . We owe a great debt of gratitude to our troops, to the President, to our intelligence services, to all who had a hand in apprehending Saddam. Now he will be brought to justice."
She adds, "I was one who supported giving President Bush the authority, if necessary, to use force against Saddam Hussein. I believe that that was the right vote." As for Iraq's prospects, she declares herself "a little optimistic and a little pessimistic . . . We have no option but to stay involved and committed."
- April 20, 2004. Mrs. Clinton tells Larry King: "I don't regret giving the President the authority because at the time it was in the context of weapons of mass destruction, grave threats to the United States, and clearly, Saddam Hussein had been a real problem for the international community for more than a decade." Asked whether she thinks she was "fooled," she replies: "The consensus was the same, from the Clinton Administration to the Bush Administration. It was the same intelligence belief that our allies and friends around the world shared about the weapons of mass destruction."
- October 2005. Antiwar fervor on the left is picking up, and activist Cindy Sheehan compares her to Rush Limbaugh after Mrs. Clinton tells the Village Voice: "My bottom line is that I don't want their sons to die in vain . . . I don't believe it's smart to set a date for withdrawal . . . I don't think it's the right time to withdraw."
- November 2005. Mrs. Clinton posts a letter to constituents that marks her first dovish turn. "If Congress had been asked [to authorize the war], based on what we know now, we never would have agreed," she writes. But invoking retired General Eric Shinseki's estimate of more American troops necessary to pacify Iraq, she demands not withdrawal but a new plan: "It is time for the President to stop serving up platitudes and present us with a plan for finishing this war with success and honor -- not a rigid timetable that terrorists can exploit, but a public plan for winning and concluding the war."
- August 3, 2006. Mrs. Clinton calls for Donald Rumsfeld to resign as Defense Secretary, asking for "new leadership that would give us a fighting chance to turn the situation around before it's too late."
- December 18, 2006. Her march left gains speed. On NBC's "Today" show, Mrs. Clinton renounces her war vote unequivocally for the first time: "I certainly wouldn't have voted that way."
- January 13, 2007. From Baghdad, Mrs. Clinton responds to Mr. Bush's plan to send more troops to Iraq to secure Baghdad: "I don't know that the American people or the Congress at this point believe this mission can work. And in the absence of a commitment that is backed up by actions from the Iraqi government, why should we believe it?"
- January 17, 2007. Mrs. Clinton calls for capping the number of U.S. troops in Iraq, saying she will introduce legislation to do so. And while she says she won't block money for the troops, she suggests withholding funds for the Iraqi government. It is precisely such a funds cut-off to the South Vietnamese government in 1975 that led to the final U.S. flight from Saigon.
- January 27, 2007. On the campaign trail in Iowa, Mrs. Clinton demands that President Bush "extricate our country from this before he leaves office." And she promises that, if elected, she will end the war quickly.
The question we'd ask is whether this is the kind of stalwart drift that Mrs. Clinton would bring to the Oval Office? ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 一風変わった社説で、ヒラリー上院議員がプロ・イラク戦争から、反戦左派へと主張を変えて きた経過を時系列でまとめたもの。無論、WSJのいっているのは世論の風潮や戦況の状況で 180度主張の変わるヒラリーが大統領に相応しいのか、という点。まあ、ポピュリストにとっ ては主張が一変するのは「機を見るに敏感で柔軟性のある」事でありなん。ビル・クリントン もそうなのだけれど、この種の政治家は全く信用できず、状況次第で融通無碍に変幻す。
The Heritage Foundation’s Bruce Klingner says the United States should ask for nothing less than full dismantlement, saying, “Talking is not success, and North Korea should not be rewarded for its intransigence or its noncompliance with U.N. resolutions.” Each meeting round in Beijing “provides perfect international diplomatic cover for an unobstructed North Korean nuclear arms buildup,” writes the American Enterprise Institute's Nicholas Eberstadt, who calls the negotiations a “farce.”
This Congressional Research Service report (PDF) details evidence of North Korea’s counterfeiting activities. Recent U.S.-North Korea financial talks failed to resolve (AP) the disagreement over Washington’s financial restrictions, although officials doubted the impasse would stall progress at the Six-Party Talks. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 昨年末の状況に比較して、やや楽観的な要素が生まれてきたとするものの、安易な妥協は認め るべきではない、と言った主張(ヘリテージ、AEI)を引用していて、楽観論とはいえない。 金融制裁解除についても否定的なトーンのように見えて、アメリカ国内の論調は楽観論の甘い ものでは無いように見える。
【北京8日時事】北朝鮮の核問題をめぐる6カ国協議は8日午後、北京の釣魚台迎賓館で 約1カ月半ぶりに再開した。北朝鮮の金桂冠外務次官は全体会合で、2005年9月の共 同声明に基づき、核施設凍結など核放棄に向けた「初期段階措置」を受け入れる用意を表 明した。各国首席代表は、初期段階措置とともに作業部会設置の必要性でも一致した。 (後略) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,,-6402287,00.html Deal Nears to Stop North Korean Nukes Thursday February 8, 2007 7:01 PM By BURT HERMAN Associated Press Writer
BEIJING (AP) - China has distributed a draft agreement to the countries at international talks seeking to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons programs, a South Korean official said early Friday. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the ongoing diplomacy, gave no details of the draft. However, other delegates said earlier the agreement would outline initial steps for implementing a September 2005 agreement from the six-nation talks where Pyongyang pledged to disarm in exchange for aid and security guarantees.
The forceful projection of China’s hard and soft power in recent months marks a stunning departure from the foreign policy axioms of late patriarch Deng Xiaoping. Deng, who anointed President Hu Jintao as the “core” of the Fourth Generation leadership, noted shortly after the Tiananmen Square massacre that China must “keep a low profile and never take the lead” in global affairs. Particularly in reference to the United States, Deng pointed out that China should “seek [opportunities for] cooperation and avoid confrontation.” This advice was largely followed by Third -Generation leaders, such as ex-president Jiang Zemin and ex-premier Zhou Rongji, both of whom were accused of being “pro-American” by nationalistic intellectuals.
This shift in Chinese foreign and military policy had begun well before a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) missile destroyed an obsolete Chinese weather satellite on January 11. Last winter, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and PLA propaganda machinery surprised observers with the dramatic publicity of the launch of the Chinese-made Jian-10 fourth generation jet fighter, which is said to be the equivalent of the U.S. F-16 and the Russian SU-30. 中国の外交政策と軍事政策のシフトは1月11日に起きた人民開放軍の衛星破壊の以前から起こ っている。昨年の冬、共産党と人民開放軍の宣伝部は中国製のJ−10第4世代ジェット戦闘 機のドラマチックな配備セレモニーをおこない、それはアメリカのF16やロシアのSu30 に匹敵するといわれる。
For example, state-owned CCTV showed tell-tale footage of the supersonic jet executing difficult maneuvers as well as refueling drills in mid-air (Xinhua, December 29, 2006). Until recently, it was rare for the official media to disclose information about newly developed hardware. A few months earlier, Western PLA watchers were also astounded to find military specialists discussing on-going plans to build the nation’s first aircraft carrier in the Chinese media. Blueprints of possible models even showed up on the websites of a few official news agencies (People’s Daily, November 17, 2006; November 21, 2006). 国営CCTVはジェット戦闘機の困難な作戦行動や空中給油の映像を流した。新鋭の軍備の情 報は開示されるのは従来には無かったことである。数ヶ月前に西側の人民開放軍ウォッチャー は中国メディアで軍事専門家が中国の空母建造計画について議論するのを見て驚かされた。モ デルの仮想的な設計図さえ幾つかのオフィシャルサイトにうpされている。 (中略)
On the diplomatic front, Hu set the tone for the rest of his term, which will run into 2013, by embarking on a grueling 12-day trip to Africa last week. This is the president’s second trip to the continent in less than a year. This “celebration” of Sino-African camaraderie follows on the heels of November’s Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), when Hu made history by hosting 40 African heads of state in Beijing. 外交分野においては胡主席が先週、12日間のアフリカ訪問を開始して2013年までの彼の残る任期 の外交のトーンをセットした。これは主席の、一年以内の2度目のアフリカ訪問である。この アフリカへの熱の入れようは昨年11月の「中国・アフリカ協力フォーラム(FOCAC)」 の継続である。フォーラムでは胡主席がアフリカの40ヶ国のトップを北京に集めた歴史的なもの であった。 (中略) Seasoned analysts have pointed out, however, that the current leadership had decided late last year to make a clean break with Deng’s cautious axioms and instead, embark on a path of high-profile force projection. The analysts noted that Beijing was convinced it had little to lose. For instance, even under the best circumstances, it was doubtful how much advanced technology the PLA would have been able to obtain from their U.S. counterparts even if space and military cooperation between the two countries were to take place. Even without the recent demonstrations of PLA capabilities, the defense alliance between the United States and Japan will likely intensify further through such means as an accelerated development of a theater missile defense system aimed at both North Korea and China. ベテランの中国アナリストは現在の中国首脳部の戦略は、昨年決定されたものであり、ケ小平 戦略からの明確な別離であるという。アナリストに拠れば、この新戦略で中国が失うものは殆 ど無いという。例えば、最良の状況下であっても、米中の軍事協力、宇宙協力があったとして も人民開放軍がアメリカ側から先端技術を輸入できるかは疑わしい。最近の事件が無くても、 日米軍事同盟の強化がすすみ、ミサイル防衛の開発協力は北朝鮮と中国を対象に進むであろう。
A new generation of generals and strategists within the PLA apparently believes that Beijing has more to gain by attaining a “balance of terror” between China and the United States. As senior strategist Peng noted, “We are developing sophisticated equipment so as to realize the principle of ‘we’ve got whatever you’ve got.’” 人民開放軍の新世代の将軍やストラテジストは、「恐怖のバランス」戦略を中国とアメリカの 間で実現することにより得るところが大きいと信じている。シニア・ストラテジストのPeng が書いているように「我々は何であれ、貴方の持つものを我々も持つという原則を実現すべく 先端的軍備を開発している」 (中略) And in the months leading up to the 17th Party Congress, Hu needs the support of the PLA generals in order to fully consolidate his stature in the CCP political hierarchy and legacy. All of these factors seem to impel the Fourth Generation leadership toward a much bolder?if not riskier?approach to the Middle Kingdom’s centuries-old quest for fuguo qiangbing or “wealthy country, strong army.” 今年の17大共産党大会にむけて、胡主席は人民開放軍の支持を必要としており、それによって 共産党のハイアラーキーの中での彼の地位の完全なコンソリデーションを図りたい。これら全 ての要素が作用して、第五世代の新たな、大胆でリスキーかもしれない戦略、富国強兵を目指 しているのである。
ROME, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Cats should be kept away from areas affected by the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus as they can pick up and spread the disease, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said on Thursday.
Cats at infected farms should be kept indoors, the agency said, as evidence from Indonesia and other countries showed they could catch bird flu from eating infected poultry or wild birds.
The worst fear is that cats could become a host for the virus where it could mutate into a form that may cause a human pandemic, the FAO said.
"Cats could act as intermediary hosts in the spread of the H5N1 virus between species," said FAO's Assistant Director-General Alexander Mueller.
"(Virus) growth in cats might help the H5N1 virus to adapt into a more highly infectious strain that could spark an influenza pandemic."
An outbreak of H5N1 in eastern England last weekend has led several countries to ban poultry exports from Britain which had not been affected by the virus before.
More than 30 countries have reported outbreaks in the past year, in most cases involving wild birds such as swans. Cats have been infected in Thailand, Iraq, Russia, the European Union and Turkey, FAO said.
Bird flu remains essentially an animal disease but has killed 166 people since it reeemerged in Asia in 2003. Almost all the victims have become infected after contact with sick birds.
ttp://www.thanhniennews.com/travel/?catid=7&newsid=25145 Last Updated: Thursday, February 8, 2007 21:51:38 Vietnam (GMT+07) E-mail to a friend E-mail to a friend Print versionPrint version Feasibility study complete for high-speed railway section
AP通信に拠れば、このプロジェクトを日本が受注とは書いていないようですが、資金繰 りに日本が協力(ODA)としているので政府間合意がありそうな The Japanese government will help raise funds for the project, Nguyen Ngoc Hung of the Vietnam Railways Corp. said Wednesday. Dung discussed the project with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during a recent trip to Tokyo, Hung said.
The first class sleeper train will be equipped with high-end service facilities to become one of the most luxurious train routes on the globe, said Belgian investor’s.
この「豪華鉄道」は贅沢な内装、ヘア・ドッレサー・サービス、マッサージ・サービス などの特別サービスつき。 The train, equipped with a luxury decor, offers special services like hairdressing and facial massage to offer tourists the most relaxing trips.
Even if agreement is reached, it will be just one part of a complicated puzzle involving financial disagreements, North Korea's energy and economic needs, and distrust between Pyongyang and Washington over their ultimate intentions.
"It's good as a basis for negotiations, but I don't want to predict whether there will be smooth negotiations," Chun Yung Woo told reporters ahead of the second day of talks in Beijing. He declined to give any details of what the draft contained.
"There are still differences on a series of issues in the overall talks, so we will try to work them out," Kim said. "You should not try to count the chickens before they hatch, as somebody said." (Aesop's Fables=イソップ物語)
今週はイラクのシーア派のAbdel-Aziz al-Hakimがイランを訪問している。彼は、イラク問題 の改善の為にアメリカとイランの対話が必要であると述べている。このほか、イランはサウジ アラビアとの間で中東問題について協議を行なっており、サウジアラビアの窓口は安全保証担 当のBandar bin Sultan 皇子である。
ヒルたんウォッチ(国務省ファイル) ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/80238.htm Morning Walkthrough With Reporters Prior to the Six-Party Talks Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs St. Regis Hotel Beijing, China February 8, 2007
2月8日ホテルにて、記者との会話
QUESTION: Ambassador Hill, there’s a report out this morning that in Berlin, you signed a memorandum of understanding with Kim Kye Gwan for the (inaudible) of the nuclear reactor (inaudible)? (ベルリンで合意書にサインしたでしょう?)
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: We did not sign anything. We had a very good discussion, and we talked about what we might do at the next Six-Party Talks. It was a very useful discussion. We did not sign anything. (うんにゃ、何もサインしとらん)
QUESTION: Is there a memorandum there and did you hand something to Wu Dawei to that effect yesterday? (中国にメモを渡してません?)
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: I talked to Wu Dawei ? no, not yesterday, this was weeks ago -- about how we might see the way forward. But not there was absolutely nothing ? we didn’t negotiate. The negotiation takes part in the Six-Party Talks, which I’m about to see how we’re going to do.(そういう事は、しとらん)
To build the device, they approached a small California company, Computer Deductions Inc., which makes electronic systems for law-enforcement agencies. Over the Dec. 15 weekend, CDI went to work building a machine for Iraq.
Tom Calabro, a CDI vice president, assembled a team of six technicians. Its basic platform would be a handheld fingerprint workstation called the MV 100, made by Cross Match Technologies, a maker of biometric identity applications. The data collected by the MV 100 would be stored via Bluetooth in a hardened laptop made by GETAC, a California manufacturer. From Knowledge Computing Corp. of Arizona they used the COPLINK program, which creates a linked "map" of events. The laptop would sit in the troops' Humvee and the data sent from there to a laptop at outpost headquarters. (クロスマッチ・テクノロジー社の指紋ワークステーション、MV 100で集めたデータを別の会社 の作成したソフトウエア、COPLINKに送り、そのソフトはイベントのリンクをマップするもので このシステムはアメリカ兵のパトロールする車両ナイのラップトップPCに・・・)
RCP:書評:「The Way to Win: Taking the White House in 2008」 ニューメディアとオールドメディアの観点から評する
Despite their insistence on the new media's transformation of America politics, the ultimate secret to success in the new environment, according to Halperin and Harris, is surprisingly straightforward. Echoing the observation of the ancient Greek historian Polybius that the best way to appear virtuous is to be virtuous, Halperin and Harris assert early on in their book that the best way to overcome the Freak Show "is to have something important to say." ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- この書評で、アメリカ政治(大統領選挙)に与えるメディアの影響、ニューメディアがそれら の状況を変え得るのかどうか、リベラルと保守勢力のアプローチ、えよせとらについて興味あ る議論。要約しない。
(中国提案の内容=停止&封印) A diplomatic source close to the six-party talks said the draft prepared by China stated that North Korea would "suspend, shut down and seal" nuclear facilities at the Yongbyon plant within about two months in return for energy and economic aid. 外交筋に拠れば中国提案のドラフト文書は、北朝鮮のヨンビョン核施設の「停止と封印」を 求めている。
ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/80298.htm Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Remarks at St. Regis Hotel Beijing, China February 9, 2007 国務省ファイル:2月9日北京のセント・レジス・ホテルにて、ヒル国務次官補のコメント
QUESTION: You said this morning that you didn’t sign the MOU in Berlin, as reported by Asahi? (ベルリン合意でサインしたのか?)
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: No, we did not sign any MOU. (そいういうことは無い)
QUESTION: Are you working with some sort of paper that involves the trade of (inaudible) or a freeze? (核施設の凍結・・・)
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: I really don’t like to hear this word “freeze.” We are not interested in freezing something; we are interested in addressing problems created by plutonium production in North Korea. Now, how we address that you will see soon enough. We are not interested in freezing; we are interested in moving toward, taking steps towards the abandonment of these nuclear programs. (凍結と言う言葉は相応しくない。我々は凍結には興味は無い。我々はプルトニウムを生産する 事を問題にしている。その問題への対応は、まもなく明らかになる。我々は凍結に興味は無く て、核の廃棄に向けて前進することを望んでいる)
QUESTION: You said actions in a “finite amount of time.” Can you sketch out that finite period?(でも、時間の制限があるのでは?)
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: I think I said in Tokyo the other day that we are talking about single digit weeks. Not a terribly eloquent turn of phrase but that’s kind of what we are looking at.(東京で言ったと思うが、一桁の週間程度の交渉を考えている)
QUESTION: You said you were you discussing uranium? (ウランについての交渉は?)
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: You know the September ‘05 statement talks about the abandonment of all nuclear programs. We are discussing a lot of things pertaining to the abandonment of nuclear programs, but I don’t want to identify precisely what we are talking about. At this point I don’t want to tell you precisely what’s going to be in the initial steps, except to say that what’s important is we get an agreement on them. And what’s also important is we move to implement them in a reasonable amount of time.(我々の目的は05年9月合意の実施で、それは核廃棄を求めている。しかし今の時点 で、最初のパッケージに何処までの範囲が含まれるかについてコメントしない)
QUESTION: Are you over the hump on this on the issue of financial sanctions? (金融制裁の問題は?)
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: The financial aspect is... You know, the country that has been engaged in some illicit activity, that has engaged in making weapons of mass destruction -- needless to say these factors add up to a country whose finances are going to be scrutinized, scrutinized in many different places. What we are focusing on is getting moving on the task of denuclearization. As North Korea denuclearizes and as they get out of the illicit activities, I think they can look forward to joining the international community, and that includes the international financial system. (金融制裁は・・不法行為に関わるもので、またWMD製造に関わるものを制裁する。どの部分 の金融行為を制裁すべきかと言う議論がある。我々の目的は核廃棄で、また不法行為の廃止で ある。北朝鮮は国際コミニティと国際金融システムに参加すべく前向きに考えるべきだ)
QUESTION: Japanese Prime Minister Shinto Abe made it clear today that Tokyo will not provide economic aid unless the abductee issue has been solved. Do you see this as slowing down the process of implementing the 9/19 agreement? (日本の安倍首相は拉致問題解決がなければ経済支援は無いといっている。是は障害になるか?)
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Japan has a position. Japan needs to have a process with the DPRK, needs to have a mechanism for dealing with tough issues with the DPRK. We understand that. I think everyone understands that. (日本には日本のポジションがある。日本は北朝鮮と問題を解決すべく交渉するメカニズムと プロセスを必要としている。我々はそれを理解しているし、他のメンバーも理解していると 思う) When you are dealing with six parties, different parties are going to have different problems in how they approach any single agreement. That’s what makes it difficult. But as I said, we made some real progress today, and we’ll have to see how we do tomorrow.(6者会合では各々の代表はそれぞれ異なった問題を有していて、その上でひとつの アプローチに合意しようとしている。それは困難なことだが、先にも述べたとおり今日は進展が あった。明日もがむばりたい)
Envoys to international talks on ending North Korea's nuclear weapons program struggled Friday to find a compromise as differences emerged over a Chinese proposal on how to begin the disarmament process 北京の6者会合は中国の提案したドラフト合意文書をめぐって、核廃棄のプロセスを如何に始 めるかで困難に遭遇している。
"There are some parts in which we had progress but on others we ran into difficulty," Sasae told reporters after daylong meetings with the other delegates. 「ある部分で進歩があったが、別の部分で困難がある」と佐々江局長が語った。
Kim said the meeting led to agreement on some unspecified issues, although there were still issues to overcome. "We are going to make more efforts to resolve them," Kim said. 北朝鮮代表は会合が、ある種の問題にぶつかったという、「我々は困難を克服すべく更に努力 が必要」と述べた。
A South Korean official also cautioned against being too optimistic. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the issue's sensitivity, said it is "not as easy as expected to produce a result due to differences in positions and a conflict of interests." 韓国代表は楽観論に対して慎重で、匿名の高官が「利益対立と立場の違いの為に、合意に至る ことは容易ではない」と述べた。
"As conditions mature, (North Korea) can halt the operation of the Yongbyon nuclear facilities," the Choson Sinbo said, referring to the site of the North's main nuclear complex north of Pyongyang. "The (North)'s position is that it can take corresponding measures when the U.S. takes steps to show that it irreversibly gave up its hostile policy," it said. The report, carried on the paper's Web site, cited a "diplomatic source well versed in" the negotiations. The paper, with links to the government in Pyongyang, is considered one of the North's propaganda tools. 「条件が満たされるなら北朝鮮はヨンビョンの運転を停止する」と日本国内のプロ北朝鮮紙で ある挑戦新報は述べている。「北朝鮮の立場はアメリカが好戦的な態度を不可逆的に変更する のに応じて対応するというものである」その新聞は北朝鮮政府の見解を反映するものと見なさ れている。
Experts suspect the current spread of bird flu in Asia, Africa and Europe is mainly a result of trade in infected live birds rather than transmission through wild birds, the U.N. official coordinating the global fight against avian influenza said Friday.
Dr. David Nabarro said investigators looking into the cause of a bird flu outbreak at a commercial turkey farm in Britain are now focusing on a possible link with the transfer of partly processed birds from a farm in southeastern Hungary, where there was an outbreak last month.
Britain's Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said preliminary inquiries indicated the strain of H5N1 bird flu found at the British farm was identical to the strain found last month in Hungary. Environment Minister Ben Bradshaw said the government was investigating whether there were "bio-security breaches" at the British farm, owned by Bernard Matthews PLC, Europe's biggest turkey producer.
If there was movement of poultry -- either live or dead -- from an area where H5N1 bird flu had been found, Nabarro said, "that will be an action which goes against the guidance of the United Nations system and also the guidance of other authorities who have jurisdiction over what goes on."
The U.N. bird flu chief said the recent upsurge in H5N1 bird flu outbreaks around the world is not a surprise.
"Since 2003, we've seen a rise in the number of reported outbreaks in poultry and indeed of human cases ... between the period December-April, and we expect that there will be more outbreaks," Nabarro said, adding that new cases could emerge through June.
During the last two months, he said, there have been new outbreaks of H5N1 avian influenza virus in Indonesia, Vietnam, South Korea, China, Thailand, Japan, Egypt, Hungary, Nigeria and Britain -- and a new outbreak was reported in Turkey.
"And human infections have been confirmed in China, Egypt, Nigeria and Indonesia and they're suspected in other locations as well," he said.
H5N1 has prompted the slaughter of millions of birds across Asia since late 2003 and caused the deaths of more than 160 people worldwide, around a third of them in Indonesia, according to the World Health Organization.
Most people killed so far have been infected by domestic fowl and the virus remains very hard for humans to catch. Nabarro said about half the people infected die.
But experts fear it could mutate into a form that easily spreads among humans, sparking a pandemic with the potential to kill millions.
Nabarro said governments and people around the world must maintain their focus on avian influence "because there is still the possibility ... of a human pandemic."
In autumn 2005, he said, bird flu experts started to see large numbers of migratory birds dying in northern China and southern Russia and there was serious concern that wild birds were becoming a significant factor in transmitting the H5N1 virus into commercial poultry populations.
"During this northern winter season, we have not had the same kind of wild bird die-offs," Nabarro said.
"We're not anticipating the same role for wild birds that we had a year ago, and we suspect that one of the reasons for the current spread has more to do with trade in live birds than to do with the movement of the virus through wild birds," he said.
"That said, it's still a bit difficult to explain some of the outbreaks that have occurred, for example, in Japan and in the Republic of Korea," Nabarro said.
He said countries with widespread outbreaks of bird flu are struggling to control the spread, including Indonesia, Egypt and Nigeria.
Indonesia mulled legal action against a drug manufacturer, which allegedly used Indonesian bird flu virus samples for commercial purposes, Health Minister Siti Fadilah Supari said Friday.
She did not mention any company, which used the virus samples, but saying that Indonesia was offered bird flu vaccine, whose research may use Indonesian bird flu strain samples.
The vaccine was made in a country in Europe.
"... the Indonesian virus samples could not be used for commercial purposes... We are studying for possible legal action," Siti was quoted by Antara news agency as saying.
Indonesia has sent many bird flu samples to a laboratory owned by the World Health Organization (WHO) in Hong Kong for seeking confirmation that bird flu suspects are really suffering from the disease.
According to the minister, Indonesia has made an agreement with WHO that Indonesian bird flu virus samples were only used for diagnosis observation of avian influenza virus.
Indonesia recently signed a memorandum of understanding with U. S. drug manufacturer Baxter Healthcare Corp. to develop bird flu vaccine for humans in Indonesia, where bird flu has killed more people than any other country.
JAKARTA, Indonesia, Feb. 9 ? Too many shopping malls. Too many squatters on the riverbanks. Too many villas on the southern hillsides. Or a curse hovering over the president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
With filthy water still filling whole neighborhoods a week after the worst flood here in decades, Indonesia’s capital and largest city can add to the plentiful list of its troubles ? like the misery of mass homelessness, power outages, traffic jams and the threat of disease ? a babble of theories, recriminations and superstitious whispers about why the country is plagued by natural disasters.
Over the past two years or so, Indonesia has suffered a whole encyclopedia of woes, from the devastating tsunami of December 2004 through earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, droughts, outbreaks of bird flu, landslides, airline crashes and a vast, bizarre geyser of mud ? a constant pounding of catastrophes that has worn down the national psyche and convinced many Indonesians that something supernatural was going on.
“Since the day he took office, there have been unending disasters,” said Permadi, a member of Parliament and a mystic, speaking about the president. (Like many Indonesians, Permadi uses only one name.) President Yudhoyono was born under a bad sign, he said, and nature is demonstrating its anger at him and the nation.
But the flood that at one point inundated 70 percent of the city and has still not completely drained away is traceable to more tangible problems, many here say.
The flood exposed the limitations and dangers of Indonesia’s aging urban infrastructure. And it demonstrated the growing pains of a democratic transformation that could produce more responsive governments.
To begin with, Jakarta, a port city with 43 lakes and 13 rivers that lies partly below sea level, still relies on flood canals and sluice gates that were built by the Dutch colonial administration 160 years ago.
The clearing of trees on nearby hillsides has removed a natural check on flooding, while the housing developments that have replaced them have put added strains on creaking public works.
This pattern of development illustrates the central problem of Indonesian infrastructure, said Ramesh Subramaniam, principal economist at the Asian Development Bank in Indonesia.
“It is essentially a conflict between private consumption, which is going up, and public investment in infrastructure, which is almost stagnant,” he said.
Though the Indonesian economy is growing at a robust pace of 6 percent a year and new homes, offices and shopping centers have proliferated, hardly any new roads, bridges, airports, power lines or water systems have been built in a decade, since the Asian economic crisis of the late 1990’s.
More malls, more squatter communities, more hillside villas: All contribute to breakdowns in urban services and to disasters like the flood.
“There is no question that the economy is growing now at a healthy clip,” said Douglas E. Ramage, the Asia Foundation’s representative in Indonesia. “ But the growth is going to bump smack up against infrastructure limitations.”
Because of complex regulations and legal uncertainties, there has been very little foreign investment in infrastructure here in recent years. Two conferences in the past two years that offered nearly 100 projects to foreign investors yielded no contracts.
“China has built more roads in the last year than Indonesia in the last 20 years,” said Jim Castle, chief executive of CastleAsia, a consultancy and research firm. “I think they have installed more telephones in six months than Indonesia has installed in 10 years.”
Attempts to overcome this lag, and to become more responsive to disasters like the flood, have been complicated by Indonesia’s continuing efforts to overhaul its governmental structure, putting more power in the hands of local governments and instituting direct elections of more government officials.
With weaker central control, lower levels of government can now find themselves at odds over jurisdiction and resources. Trees are cut and housing developments are built on the outskirts of Jakarta without any coordination. And when a disaster strikes, the response is often uncoordinated as well, and chaos results.
Political analysts say that evenually, local accountability and direct elections will push officials to be more responsive to the needs of their constituents.
This, too, is expected to be part of the story of the Jakarta flood. This summer, for the first time in its 450-year history, Jakartans will directly elect a governor, and the flood is expected to be a major issue.
“This is as much a governance issue as a natural disaster,” Mr. Ramage said. “All over Indonesia, as cities get to elect their mayors and provinces directly elect their heads, we are beginning to see more responsible government. ”
Responding to the emergency much as they have in the past, incumbent officials were busy this week pointing fingers at one another.
The city’s governor, Sutiyoso, blamed deforestation and overbuilding next door and a lack of financing from above. Environment Minister Racmat Witoelar blamed officials for issuing improper building permits. The Public Works Ministry blamed people whose land blocks the route of a proposed flood canal.
The coordinating minister for the people’s welfare, Aburizal Bakrie, took himself off the hook, saying news coverage of the flood had been exaggerated. “ We see that victims are still laughing,” he told a television reporter.
Mr. Sutiyoso has served for a decade as governor without having to worry about votes, and he has paid little political price for his inaction after another major flood in 2002.
In the years to come, perhaps, his elected successor will make a real effort at flood control.
It is even possible to imagine that Mr. Permadi, the mystical member of Parliament, is engaging a little more with what is sometimes called the reality-based world.
“From a spiritual perspective,” he said, “there are two ways of looking at the flood.” One of them, he said, is the bad karma of both national and local leaders. “The other is that it is now rainy season.”