Six-way talks on ending North Korea's nuclear program resumed on Saturday with a dim promise of progress, but envoys remained cautious after many false dawns and at least one stumbling block across their path.
But North Korea and the United States warned against assuming a deal was certain, while Japan said an imminent agreement on even a limited first step was unlikely. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 土曜日の交渉再開を伝えているけれど、昨日夜以降の非楽観的な見通しのトーンを変えてはい ない記事で、交渉妥結が難しそうであると書いている。
SEOUL, Feb. 10 (Yonhap) -- An official of Switzerland's banking industry denied accusations that the country's banks are involved in dealings with North Korea's leader Kim Jong-il, saying such involvement would taint the industry's image, a report said. スイス銀行協会は、スイスの銀行が北朝鮮の金正日との取引をしているとの非難に対して スイスの銀行は金正日との取引は無いと発表した。
"There is no way a Swiss bank would be running a bank account for Kim Jong-il knowing that he is a dictator. The reputational risk is simply too high," James Nason, a spokesman for the Swiss Bankers' Association, told Washington-based Radio Free Asia (RFA) on Friday. 「スイスの銀行が金正日の口座を持つことはありえない。独裁者として知られる金正日の口座 を持つような行為は、評判を落とすリスクが高すぎる」とスイス銀行協会の広報官、James NasonがRFAに語った。
Chief U.S. negotiator Christopher Hill, suggesting some impatience, said one issue remained in dispute -- and it was not to do with North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear plant, at which operations would be suspended under a draft deal. "It's basically one or two items probably best described as one item," he told reporters before going in to the talks. "I don't think it's the most important issue, but you know the North Koreans. You never know what's important ... If we lived in a logical, rational world, we'd get through this."
これは、今日のWSJのオピニオン欄にあるのだけれど、ヒラリーVSジュリアーニ を論じる、だけでなくて、アメリカにおけるニューヨークを論じるようなもので、翻 訳するとその(独特の)香りが消えて味も素っ気も無いものになりそうなので、手を 触れないで、部分的なコピペを; ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB117106014697204129.html?mod=rss_opinion_main New York, New York: Rudy vs. Hillary By PEGGY NOONAN February 10, 2007; Page P14
These are exciting times, with rival gangs roaming uptown and down looking for money and support. The styles of the two tongs are different. Hillary's people are cool and give away nothing; they're all business. They're like a captain from an army about to crush you. Why should he bother to charm you?
Rudy's people are more like old-style New Yorkers: They are pugnacious, and if you express reservations about their guy, they give you the chin. They don't make the case or try to persuade; they tilt their chins up and try to argue you into conceding he can win. As if they think it's all on them, and if they can win the conversation, he will win the nomination.
The city, as we say in the state, is full of people who've met both candidates, know them, had dealings with them. The other night I bumped into a veteran journalist who talked about Iran. The journalist said, "I wrote Hillary and gave her good advice but she didn't write back!" I went to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee speech Mrs. Clinton gave last week, and the higher geopolitical meanings of the event aside, the crowd ate dinner as she spoke and didn't seem unduly impressed. They'd seen her before and would see her again.
What a boon the race is for the tabloid press and the mainstream media: If New York's at the center, they're at the center. The tabloids had fun with the formal debut, via a Harper's Bazaar interview, of Judi Giuliani. The Post famously front-paged The Kiss, a posed and mildly creepy smooch -- it was a bigger story in New York than the mad astronaut -- and her recent reflections that the presidential race is "a journey" they can make "together." It left one observer -- that would be me -- saying, "Oh no, please no." In politics, in the world of political life, the proper attitude of a third wife is modesty.
Mr. Giuliani and Mrs. Clinton seem in a way to represent two different New Yorks, two different templates of what it is to be a New Yorker. Rudy as mayor: An embattled pol bickering with reporters trying to bait him. A Western European ethnic from the outer boroughs with a slight hunch to his shoulders. He does the chin too, or did. His people probably got it from him. He was the government-prosecutor son of a Brooklyn guy, a Republican in a Democratic town, a man who had ideas -- convictions! -- about how to cut crime and stop the long slide, and who had to move entire establishments (and if there's one thing New York knows how to make, it's establishments) to get his way. And he pretty much did, winning progress and enmity along the way. On 9/10/01 he was a bum, on 9/11 he was a man, and on 9/12 he was a hero. Life can change, shift, upend in an instant.
Mrs. Clinton is not ethnic or outer-borough. She's suburban, middle class; she was raised in a handsome town in Illinois and lived an adulthood in Arkansas and Washington. She founded the original war room, is called "The Warrior" by some of her staff, has been fierce and combative in private, but obscures it all now under clouds of pink scarves. She literally hides the chin.
Both candidates seem now almost...jarringly happy. As if they've arrived and it's good, which they have and it is. But good fortune distances. They are both rich now, and both have spent the past six years being lauded and praised. In both it seems to have softened their edges -- the easy, ready smile. We'll see if it's softened their heads.
But it is significant that in Mrs. Clinton's case, for the past 30 years, from 1978 through 2007 -- which is to say throughout most, almost all, of her adulthood -- her view of America, and of American life, came through the tinted window of a limousine. (Now the view is, mostly, through the tinted window of an SUV.)
From first lady of Arkansas through first lady of the United States to U.S. senator, her life has been eased and cosseted by staff -- by aides, drivers, cooks, Secret Service, etc. Her life has been lived within a motorcade. And so she didn't have to worry about crime, the cost of things, the culture. Status incubates. Rudy Giuliani was fighting a deterioration she didn't have to face. That's a big difference. It's the difference between the New Yorker in the subway and the Wall Street titan in the town car.
“This is the Libya model,” said one senior administration official, referring to Libya’s decision in late 2003 to turn over all of the equipment it had purchased from the secret nuclear network run by the Pakistani scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan, to produce bomb fuel. In that agreement, both the Libyans and the United States executed a series of steps, in a carefully negotiated order, that rid the country of nuclear technology and ended its isolation. 「これはリビア・モデル(を適用するの)だ」とブッシュ政権のある高官が語っている。 2003年にリビアが全ての核施設を閉鎖し、パキスタンのカーン博士から購入した秘密を開 示した事件を参照して述べている。リビアのケースではリビアとアメリカが一連のステッ プを注意深く交渉してまとめあげ、最終的に核施設を廃棄してリビアの国際的孤立を解消 した。
Administration officials say this agreement would be different, because the biggest benefits for the North would come only after it allowed inspectors, sealed its facilities and began to give up its weapons. But those steps will be difficult to monitor, in part because there is a dispute about how much nuclear material the North possesses. 高官に拠れば北朝鮮との場合は、北朝鮮が検査官を受け入れ、施設を封鎖し、核爆弾を廃棄 し始めた後に、始めて大型の支援がえられるところがリビアと異なるという。北朝鮮にどの くらい核物質があるのか不明である為に、このステップを監視することが難しくなる。
In a second stage of the agreement, the North would be required to declare how much nuclear material it has on hand and where it is located, administration officials say. Presumably, that would include the uranium enrichment program that Mr. Khan has admitted helping the North start a decade ago, but which North Korea has denied. 合意の第二段階では、北朝鮮は核物質を、どの位、何処に、保有しているのかを開示しなく てはならない。高官に拠れば、このステップはウラン濃縮関連のものを含む。カーン博士は 北朝鮮が否定しているけれど、10年前の北朝鮮のウラン濃縮を助けたことを告白している。 (中略)
Analysts say these are likely to include denuclearization, financial sanctions and normalizing diplomatic relations between North Korea and the United States and Japan. アナリストは合意文書は核廃棄、金融制歳、北朝鮮とアメリカおよび日本との国交正常化が 含まれるだろうという。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- このNYT記事が正しいのであれば、日本や韓国、中国のメディアのミスリードはどうしょう もないくらいに酷いということに。しかし、リビア・モデルに北朝鮮が乗る可能性があるのか、 ということになれば、それは随分低い可能性に見えるけれど。もしそうなれば、日朝国交正常 化といったテーマが出てくるので、前提条件の拉致問題解決は必須だけれど。
米政府高官は同紙に対し、同案の内容について、核兵器開発を断念して関連資材の引き渡しを 決定した「リビア型」と説明。北朝鮮核施設の「凍結」にとどまった1994年の米朝枠組み 合意とは、大きく異なると指摘した。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 時事の記事は不正確で、NYTの記事は楽観論では無いのだが(タイトルだけ見ると楽観論 に見えるけれど、中身はそうではない) No deal was announced, and some analysts have questioned whether a stalemate could sink a larger denuclearization deal.
"the AoE should be more active these days and should find good options [for Khomeini's replacement]. Our approach for finding the [new] leader is clear and there are many available options." (専門家会議はハメネイの次の指導者をより活発に検討すべきである。 次の指導者については多くのオプションが有り、次の指導者を選ぶ我々のアプローチは明瞭で ある)
Larijani, who was earlier reported as not being able to attend the conference due to illness, is scheduled to deliver a speech on the importance of security for the Middle East on Sunday.
Chikusho! Investors who put money into Fujishoji, a pachinko machinery maker, must have been cursing its miserable debut on Friday. パチンコ機器メーカーであるフジ商事に投資した人たちは金曜日のデビューの惨めな状況に チクショーと叫んだことであろう。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 日本のパチンコ店は15,000に上り、売り上げは$250B、ピーク時の利益率は50%であった。パチ ンコ器機製造メーカーの株主の三分の一は外国人である。日本で猖獗を極めたパチンコは、し かし今や勢いが衰えている。規制の強化などが進められている。パチンコ店の利益が減少し、そ の数も減ってきている。上場会社の中で最大規模の、この産業のプレーアーであるセガ・サミー ・ホールディングズに拠ればパチンコ、パチスロの売り上げは前年比15%減である。
Officials at the top of both parties calculate that Obama has risen too fast to sustain his popularity in the cauldron of a presidential campaign. Democrats talk of “vapid platitudes” that could produce a “souffle effect” ? an implosion as journalists and activists begin probing for substance behind Obama’s appealing promise of “a different kind of politics” and “a new kind of politics.”
“With a couple of pinpricks here and there, the whole thing could fall apart,” said a Democratic strategist familiar with the plans of Obama’s rival campaigns.
Here’s a capsulized look at the opponents’ plans for undoing Obama: 1. Inexperience(ry 2. Anemic Policy Record(ry 3. Liberalism(ry 4. Disclosures in His Books(ry
<ヒル国務次官補の発言> "I think it's time to wrap this up and get moving and I hope the other participants will share this view," Hill said. (まとめに入るべきだ) "... We've made a lot of progress. It's progress that's consolidated. We've got this one issue -- we ought to try to wrap this issue up."(進歩はあった、まとめる時期)
<佐々江局長の発言> "The gulf between North Korea and us is considerably large, and whether we can fill in the gap solely depends on North Korea," he told reporters. (北朝鮮とそれ以外の参加者の立場の違いは大きく、ギャップが埋められるかは北朝鮮次第) "Although we are going to have discussions today, we are not in a situation where we can be optimistic."(楽観的になれる状況ではない)
<韓国代表の発言> "It's a bit unreasonable to expect there'll be a breakthrough today," Chun said. (今日、ブレークスルーを期待するのは無理だ)
``I think it's time to wrap this up,'' Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill said today in Beijing, before he left his hotel to begin a fourth day of talks. ``Issues of this kind are more appropriate for experts. Issues of this kind ought to be handled in working groups.'' ttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aqGwUgb6emEw&refer=asia Hill Says Sticking Point in Nuclear Talks Can Be Resolved Later By Heejin Koo and Allen T. Cheng
ANHKキャスター、柳澤秀夫 ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/80100.htm Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs US Embassy, Tokyo Tokyo, Japan February 6, 2007 国務省ファイル:ヒル国務次官補へのNHKのインタビュー(全文記録)
SEOUL, Feb. 11 (Yonhap) -- The United States has promised to lift financial sanctions imposed on North Korea within 30 days at the end of the one-on-one talks in Berlin last month, a pro-Pyongyang newspaper based in Japan said Sunday, as envoys to the six-nation talks haggle over a Chinese draft accord in Beijing. 日曜日に日本で発行されたプロ・北朝鮮の朝鮮新報は、アメリカが先月のベルリン会議の席上 で、30日以内に金融制裁を解除すると約束したと報じている、
In return, North Korea agreed to take the first steps toward dismantling its nuclear weapons program within 60 days, said the Choson Sinbo, a Korean-language newspaper published by the General Association of Korean Residents in Japan. この見返りに、北朝鮮は60日以内に核廃棄の最初のステップに手をつけることを約束したと報 じている。
There are increasing calls even from some Western liberals for Israel to be dissolved as a failed venture. It is bizarre that, aside from the United States, much of the world - in particular, enlightened Europe - against all logic views Israel as a prime source of evil, posing a greater threat to peace than even rogue states like Iran or North Korea. (西側リベラルのなかには、特に欧州において、イランや北朝鮮のようなテロ国家よりも、 イスラエルのほうをより脅威である、悪魔のような国と見なす風潮が見られる) ttp://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1170359827504&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull Feb. 10, 2007 21:46 Be strong and of good courage By ISI LEIBLER イエルサレムポスト、社説、2月10日、強い力と、良い勇気を持て ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 国内の、ほぼ全てのメディアにとっては、日本国の主権侵害であり、人権侵害であるような 拉致問題よりも「孤立」が問題であり、北朝鮮「支援」が必要だという錯綜した妄想ロジッ クが一般的であることが解った。何たる論理性、合法性、合理性の無さであることか。 それは、思考方法が徹底した敗北主義、謝罪主義であって、一片の勇気も力も無いことの 告白であるように見える。
QUESTION: You said this morning that you didn’t sign the MOU in Berlin, as reported by Asahi? ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: No, we did not sign any MOU.
ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/80298.htm Evening Walkthrough With Reporters at the Six-Party Talks Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Remarks at St. Regis Hotel Beijing, China February 9, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------- A2月8日朝、北京のセント・レジス・ホテルにて、記者とのやり取り、国務省ファイル
QUESTION: Ambassador Hill, there’s a report out this morning that in Berlin, you signed a memorandum of understanding with Kim Kye Gwan for the (inaudible) of the nuclear reactor (inaudible)?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: We did not sign anything. We had a very good discussion, and we talked about what we might do at the next Six-Party Talks. It was a very useful discussion. We did not sign anything.
ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/80238.htm Morning Walkthrough With Reporters Prior to the Six-Party Talks Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs St. Regis Hotel Beijing, China February 8, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------- B このほか2月24日の国務省のディリー記者会見でも、ベルリン会議は自由な意見交換であり 交渉ではなく、何かを決めるものではないと国務省広報官がいっています。
今の時点で、私が思うに、北朝鮮代表は我々がテーブルに挙げている提案に対する、フルセ ットの反応の指示を、本国から得ていないだろう。 (At that point, the -- I don't think the North Korean delegation had their full set of instructions in terms of how to respond to some of the ideas that were on the table.)
彼らは、先の6者会合で我々の提示した事について熟慮する時間があったのだろう。 いずれにせよ、本当のテストは、(来るべき)交渉でどう言う事になるのかということだ。 (But again, the real test is what happens in a set of negotiations.)
"The Iranian nation on Feb. 11, 2007, passed the arduous passes and stabilized its definite (nuclear) right," Ahmadinejad said. He did not elaborate, but his comments indicated that Iran had achieved proficiency in nuclear fuel cycle technology.
"We are prepared for dialogue but won't suspend our activities. ... The government will defend the rights of the Iranian nation within the framework of the law," he said.
"After the U.N. Security Council imposed sanctions on Iran last December, Ahmadinejad has come under pressure at home and abroad to moderate his tone. He refused to make that announcement not to further provoke the West at this crucial time," political analyst Iraj Jamshidi said.
The chief U.S. envoy, Assistant Secretary of State Christopher R. Hill, suggested North Korea was seeking such a large amount of fuel upfront that it would no longer feel obligated to carry out further steps in the denuclearization schedule. Some reports quoting diplomats at the talks suggested the initial commitment demanded by Pyongyang amounted to 2 million tons.
"We're prepared to help the DPRK along the way, especially on economic and energy issues," Hill said, using the initials for North Korea's formal name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. "But we're not prepared to help them in a way that would allow them to avoid the next steps in denuclearization."
Hill said the North Korean delegation head, Kim Gye Gwan, was expected to confer with his government in Pyongyang overnight and return to the negotiating table Monday for an up-or-down meeting. Unless agreement is in sight at that meeting, Hill said, the talks will break up, adding to the long list of fruitless sessions since the negotiations began in August 2003 under Chinese sponsorship.
As he has before, Hill warned that the future of the six-party talks could be affected by such an outcome. "I think we have a real problem if we can't come to agreement on this," he said. 今回の結末は6者会合の将来に影響する、とヒル国務次官補は警告した。「今回、合意に至ら ないなら、我々は(6者会合破綻という)大きな問題に直面する」
ヒル国身次官補は、2月9日の夕方の、ホテルでのインタビューで金融制裁解除について、否定 的な答えをしている。国務省ファイルに拠れば: --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/80298.htm QUESTION: Are you over the hump on this on the issue of financial sanctions?
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: The financial aspect is... You know, the country that has been engaged in some illicit activity, that has engaged in making weapons of mass destruction -- needless to say these factors add up to a country whose finances are going to be scrutinized, scrutinized in many different places. What we are focusing on is getting moving on the task of denuclearization. As North Korea denuclearizes and as they get out of the illicit activities, I think they can look forward to joining the international community, and that includes the international financial system. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- この答えは>>193 の中日新聞の記事内容(推測)と矛盾する。 朝日新聞記事は、内容がおかしなもので
BEIJING, Feb. 12 (Yonhap) -- Host China has decided to end this round of six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program on Monday regardless of an agreement, the top U.S. nuclear envoy said Sunday. "We were informed today by the Chinese side...that tomorrow will be the last day," Christopher Hill told reporters. ttp://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/Engnews/20070212/610000000020070212013738E0.html
“Freezing and disabling Yongbyon is an important but modest step,” said Michael Green, who negotiated with North Korea as the top Asia expert at the National Security Council until he left a year ago. “It does not yet capture harvested plutonium and the existing weapons.”
Virtually with each recent misstep in a campaign that got off to a terrific start after her landslide victory in November's party primary, Ms. Royal searched for security in Socialist nostrums. Her long-awaited policy program, which was unveiled before 10,000 enthusiastic party activists in suburban Paris Sunday, confirmed the leftward lurch. As if to signal her intentions, Ms. Royal exchanged her trademark white suit for a smart red jacket for her speech.
(伝統的フランス的リベラル) EUのめざす単一市場にも、農業補助金削減にも、雇用法規の規制緩和、労働市場自由化にも 貿易自由化にも反対している。 All this took little courage. Where the Socialist leader actually took concrete policy stands, the familiar anticapitalist line dominated. "I don't want a Europe that would only be a zone of free trade leaning up against NATO," she said. "I want even less a Europe of 'everyone for himself' where fiscal and social dumping" (i.e., a Europe where member states lower tax rates and loosen labor codes to grow their economies) "replace solidarity." So, in other words, her France would remain opposed to opening up the single market, reducing farm subsidies and pushing trade liberalization. (後略) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ロワイヤル候補はこれまで政策方針について殆ど具体的な発言をせず、方向性が判断できない という評価だったので日曜日の党大会での政策綱領発表で目指す政治の方向性が明らかに。W SJの評価のトーンは、やっぱり、こんなもの(駄目)か、といったところ。
In a conversation with the Central News Agency, a spokesperson refuted the claims made by the DailyNK, “There is absolutely no evidence to support the report which alleges that prisoners had escaped a concentration camp in Hwasung, North Hamkyung last month. The report that North Korean authorities are on the hunt for arrest is a fabricated scheme.” ディリーNKの問い合わせにKCNAの広報官は、事件についてディリーNKの報道に反論し て「先月に北部HamkyungのHwasungで収容所からの脱走事件があったというのは事実無根で、 何の根拠も無いでっち上げである」とした。
“It is not the first time this kind of strategic report has been made” the spokesperson said and asserted “Right now, the U.S. and South Korea’s right wing forces are going to extreme efforts trying curtail the victories of our republic.” 「この種の謀略的な報道は初めてではなく、アメリカと韓国の右派勢力が我が国政府の勝利 を毀損すべく、そうした努力を行なっている」
911航空機墜落犠牲者、バーバラ オルセン、ヨーロッパで逮捕される。 9-11 crash victim Barbara Olson arrested in Europe Date: Thursday, September 22 Topic: 9-11 Investigations Austria--September 22, 2005--TomFlocco.com--French and American intelligence agents have arrested Barbara Olson, the wife of a former Bush administration official, a few days ago on the Polish-Austrian border, according to agents close to and with knowledge of the incident.
Only a short time earlier, China had announced that Monday would be the final day of the talks. Delegates including South Korea's chief negotiator, Chun Yung-woo, said proposals had been made, the bargaining was over, and it was time for North Korea to say yes or no.
QUESTION: Mr. Ambassador? Does the Japanese unwillingness to provide aid handicap you, or is this solely the comfort level of the North Koreans? (日本政府が北朝鮮に経済支援を与えないことは、貴方の交渉の障害になっていますか?)
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: The problem is not Japan. The problem is the DPRK. I think I can state that fairly boldly there. We have worked very well with the Japanese delegation. We have been very close to the Japanese delegation throughout. Obviously Japan has some issues that need to be addressed in bilateral context, just as the DPRK has issues with us that need to be addressed bilaterally. And we have set up mechanisms for doing that. But the mechanisms will only work if we can come to an agreement. But the problem is not Japan. Japan has been with us, very closely together with us. The problem is the DPRK has got to make a decision about denuclearization. (問題は北朝鮮なのであって、日本ではありません。日本政府はアメリカ政府と大変親密に 行動していて日本政府は我々の見方です。北朝鮮が核廃棄の決断をしないことが問題なのです)
QUESTION: There are certain [inaudible] reporting that you and Mr. Kim Gye Gwan agreed in Berlin that the financial sanctions will be lifted within 30 days and preliminary implementation measures will be begun within 60 days. I was wondering if you could confirm this. (貴方と北朝鮮代表がベルリン会議で金融制裁を30日以内に解除すると約束したという報道が されています。核廃棄第一段階が60日以内という約束もされたと。これを確認できますか?)
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: There are a lot of leaks as to what the nature of the discussions were. I am not gong to corroborate or go into all that, except to say we are down to energy. OK? We worked out issues, we worked out ways to address many of the other issues, and we are down to energy. And so that’s the issue at hand. If we can come to an agreement on what can be done to assist their economy and then maintain the momentum for the complete denuclearization, we are going to be fine. (いつも様々なリーク情報が流されるわけだが、私は、そういう問題に関わらない。私の言える 事は、今はエネルギー支援についてつめていると言う事だけだ。我々は多くの問題を話し合い 今はエネルギー支援の問題を残している。それが今の問題なのだ。北朝鮮の完全非核化のモメ ンタムを維持すべく、経済を助ける為に、経済支援の話し合いが上手くいけば、わたしは満足 だ)
So all these other issues you mentioned, it’s very nice that you’ve gotten people to talk about them, but they are not the problem right now. (だから、貴方の言った、それ以外の問題について、そういう事のおしゃべりをする人たちと貴 方が付き合うのは結構だが、それは現今の問題ではない) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- これは、朝日新聞そのほかの、ベルリン合意とそのアメリカによる不履行が、6者会合のトラブル の原因、という「解説記事」を完全に否定していると思ふ。
Japan's Kyodo news agency quoted a Japanese lawmaker in turn quoting China's negotiator, Wu Dawei, as saying that North Korea had agreed on the shutdown of its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon. Japan's former Defense Agency chief, Fukushiro Nukaga, also quoted Wu as saying that Pyongyang had agreed to submit a list of other nuclear-related facilities as part of initial steps toward denuclearization.
ヒル国務次官補の現在の状況判断について:
U.S. chief negotiator Christopher Hill earlier urged North Korea to stop haggling and strike a deal. (haggling:論争) "I don't think there's any need to do any more bargaining. They just need to make a decision," Hill told reporters before heading into the fifth day of talks on Monday. "I think this is a moment when we have to see whether the DPRK is interested in this opportunity or not," he said. ヒル国務次官補は、現在は論争を続ける時期ではなく取引をまとめる時期だと述べた。 「今更ベーゲニングが必要とは、私は思わない。北朝鮮は意思決定する必要がある」 と月曜日の朝に述べている。「北朝鮮が今回の機会を生かす気があるのかどうかという 問題だと思う。それが明確になるだろう」
A diplomatic source said North Korea had demanded the United States and four other countries provide it with 2 million tonnes of heavy fuel oil annually -- worth about $600 million -- and 2,000 megawatts of electricity. The electricity, at an estimated cost of $8.55 billion over 10 years, would be about equal to North Korea's current output. 北朝鮮は200万トンの重油提供を望んでおり、それは年間$600M(720億円)になる。さらに2000 メガワットの電力をも望んでいて、これは10年分として計算すれば$8.55B(1025億円)程度 になる。 ttp://ca.today.reuters.com/news/NewsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=uri:2007-02-12T132947Z_01_PEK231255_RTRIDST_0_NEWS-KOREA-NORTH-COL.XML&pageNumber=0&summit= U.S. haggles with N.Korea over energy aid Mon Feb 12, 2007 8:29 AM EST31
・・they were delivered clearly signal the end of the relative quiescence that has characterized Moscow's relations with the United States since the Gorbachev era. With his speech, Putin was asserting Russia's claim to "great power" status and challenging what he called the "unipolar" world of American power.
"The chicken or the egg modus operandi of the talks is something we have seen before," Li Dunqiu, an expert on the Korean peninsula at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said. "The big sticking point is who is going to compromise first -- North Korea or the United States." ttp://www.speroforum.com/site/article.asp?idarticle=7853 ( modus operandi〈ラテン語〉操作方法) -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 中国は人事のように言っているけれど、この問題は「責任あるステークホルダー」である 中国が、本来は処理してしかるべきものなのだが。中国様が余りに勝手な傍観を続けて、 金豚将軍のワガママが収まらないならば、日本国内には独自核武装あるべき論が・・・
FOX NEWS速報:日本国内の米軍基地近くで爆発、警察がテロ攻撃の疑いで捜査 Breaking News >> Explosion Reported Near U.S. Army Base in Japan; Police Suspect Attempted Attack http://www.foxnews.com/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17115028/ TOKYO - An explosion was heard near a U.S. Army base south of Tokyo late Monday and police suspected an attempted attack on the base, Kyodo News agency reported. The blast was in the area of the U.S. Army's Camp Zama, Kyodo said. The report did not say whether there were any injuries or damage. Police found parts of a "launch pad" near the base, Kyodo said, and investigators suspected a "guerrilla attack."
(写真あり) The Toyota FT-HS is a hybrid sports car concept introduced at the 2007 North American International Auto Show. I have been drooling ever since. Auto experts are buzzing about this being the replacement for the Toyota Supra, and I don't have a problem with that! Toyota is on the money with this very hot concept design.
For a while there I was scared hybrids and "green" cars would be weak, girly little cars with slow engines. But what I'm seeing from Toyota has made me a happy man. Imagine having a car that is much faster than a Porsche, Mercedes AMG and any M series car from BMW and still cost 1/4 the price! ------------------------------------------------------------------------- このスレで車について云々する気持ちは全く無いのだけれど、こういうブログで話題になり 飴の国内で、リンク貼り捲くりになれば、無料で効果的な宣伝が行なわれているようなもの ではないかと思ふ。マーケティングに於けるネットやブログについて、良く考えてみる必要 がある鴨;
The South Korean delegation's press center said there was "sweeping progress" during the discussion of a final document containing a plan of the initial stage of the DPRK's nuclear disarmament.
A South Korean source told journalists that the final document should be approved by the governments of all six countries.
According to sources close to negotiations, North Korea demanded volumes of assistance deemed by participants as "overstated." Exact figures were not mentioned, but North Korea was talking about fuel oil supplies for thermoelectric power plants in the country sufficient to produce 2,000 megawatts of energy annually.
Pyongyang asked for 1 million metric tons of fuel oil for its heat and electric power plants, while its negotiating partners said they are ready to supply 500,000 tons. The problem has been who will pay and how much for the assistance. ttp://en.rian.ru/world/20070212/60603120.html Progress at six-party talks on North Korea in Beijing - sources 19:56 12/ 02/ 2007
The top negotiators of South Korea, North Korea, the U.S., China, Japan and Russia settled most of the disagreements on energy aid for the North in return for its abandonment of nuclear weapons and reached an agreement to issue a joint statement Tuesday morning, said the official. ttp://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/Engnews/20070213/410100000020070213032928E3.html
Japan's chief envoy said it was "too early to tell" if his government was satisfied with the deal. "I believe that countries have compromised somewhat toward an agreement," Kenichiro Sasae said, declining to give any specifics.
North Korea did not immediately make any public comment, but South Korea's envoy Chun Yung-woo said he believed the proposal would be acceptable to Pyongyang.
Chun said the five other countries agreed to evenly share the energy aid outlined under the deal.
Austrian sniper rifles that were exported to Iran have been discovered in the hands of Iraqi terrorists, The Daily Telegraph has learned. More than 100 of the.50 calibre weapons, capable of penetrating body armour, have been discovered by American troops during raids. A Steyr HS50 rifle, Austrian supplied rifles, arms trade, Iran equipping Iraq insurgents The Steyr HS50 is a long range, high precision rifle
The guns were part of a shipment of 800 rifles that the Austrian company, Steyr -Mannlicher, exported legally to Iran last year. ・・・・ ・・・・ The Foreign Office expressed "serious concerns" over the sale of the rifles last year and Britain protested to the Austrian government. A Foreign Office spokesman said last night: "Although we did make our worries known the sale unfortunately went ahead and now the potential that these weapons could fall into the wrong hands appears to have happened."
The rifle can pierce all body armour from up to a mile and penetrate armoured Humvee troop carriers. It is highly accurate and fires a round called an armour piercing incendiary, a bullet that the Iranians manufacture. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 記事には、このHS50という「長距離・高精度ライフル」の写真が添付されています、記事 のなかにあるように、かなり強力なライフルのように見えて、アメリカ軍が神経を尖らせるの もうなずけるような。
>>273 テレグラフはシーア派への支援、と明確に書いています。 The find is the latest in a series of discoveries that indicate that Teheran is providing support to Iraq's Shia insurgents.
QUESTION: So we've known about this -- you know, I think it's been out in the public for some time now about, you know, the U.S. officials who said that the Iranians are supplying deadly weapons. Why now for the presentation, if this has been out there for a while?
MR. MCCORMACK: Well, in terms of the fact that this issue has come to the fore in public and we have started talking about it, they addressed that in Baghdad. They talked about the fact that it was -- they have recently -- and I can't give you the time period, seen an increase in the number of attacks from these devices.
As for the timing of it, it was something that the folks in Baghdad decided it was time to do. I can't tell you that it is tied to anything in particular other than the idea of we need to do something to address these networks, we need to tell our publics what we're doing to protect our troops and it flowed from that decision.
QUESTION: Last week you were speaking about mountains of evidence. Is it all the evidence you have or did you keep some classified?
MR. MCCORMACK: Look, again, like I said, I can't tell you what was left on the cutting room floor. This represents the consensus view. We believe it's focused on the issue at hand. We believe that it's clear and it does not compromise sources and methods. So we think it's met all the criteria that we laid out for ourselves in making the presentation.
QUESTION: Sean, what will be the consequences on Iran after these threats?
MR. MCCORMACK: The consequences --
QUESTION: What are you going to do? Yeah.
MR. MCCORMACK: The President has talked about it. We're going to go after these networks that are operating inside of Iraq and we're going to do everything we can in Iraq to protect our troops. This is a very basic force protection issue. Any deployed military force around the world is going to take steps that it deems necessary to protect its troops, and President Bush has made very clear that that's what he's going to do as well.
So as for the consequences, well, the consequences are that these networks are going to be broken up, they're going to be hunted down and we're going to do everything in our power inside of Iraq to stop these activities. People continue to accumulate facts and information, and if at some point in the future people decide that there's an update that's merited, they'll take that decision. I don't believe anybody is thinking about that right now, but if there's -- if there are any updates that are merited, people will take a look at that in the future.
BEIJING, Feb. 13 (Yonhap) -- The following is the full text of "Initial Actions for the Implementation of the Joint Statement" adopted at the latest round of six-nation negotiations over North Korea's nuclear weapons program in Beijing on Feb. 13.
TOKYO (AP) ? Japan will not provide energy aid to North Korea under the six-nation agreement struck in Beijing aimed at dismantling the country's nuclear program, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Tuesday.
The biggest winner may be China, since the Chinese can take credit for having written the agreement, and the Chinese host and chief delegate, Wu Dawei, read it in carefully deadpan, bureaucratic style in a live television broadcast.
U.S. military officials finally laid out detailed evidence on Sunday that Iranian -supplied weapons are killing American soldiers in Iraq. The issue now is the lesson the Bush Administration and the American political establishment draw about dealing with Iran. 日曜日にアメリカ軍はイランがイラクにおいて、アメリカ兵を殺戮するための兵器を提供 している詳細な証拠を開示した。これはブッシュ政権やアメリカの政治エスタブリッシュ メントにとって如何にイランに対処すべきかのレッスンになる。
Our guess is that a large part of Washington will pretend the evidence doesn't exist, or suggest the intelligence isn't proven, or claim that it's all the Bush Administration's fault for "bullying" Iran. This was the impulse behind the Baker -Hamilton Commission's recommendation late last year that the U.S. "engage" Tehran to help us find some honorable diplomatic or political solution in Iraq. WSJの想像では、ワシントンの政界の多くは証拠は存在しないかのように振舞うか、ある いは証拠が不十分であるとか、ブッシュ政権がイランをいじめているとか、そういう態度に 出るものと思う。それはベーカー・ハミルトン勧告書が、イラクの外交的、政治的解決の為 にイラン政府にエンゲージせよと勧めたことの背景にあるものである。
But the evidence about Iranian-style munitions shows how wishful such thinking is. The Iranians don't want a political solution that would allow a U.S.-backed moderate Shiite government to rule in Baghdad. Their goal is to make us bleed in order to drive us home and so allow their radical Shiite allies to hold sway and Iran to become the dominant regional power. They also figure that the bloodier the defeat they can impose, the less likely the U.S. will be to ever consider promoting regime change in Tehran or Damascus. しかし、イラン製造の武器の証拠は、そうした考え(エンゲージメント論)が如何にウイッシュ フル・シンキングであるかを示す。イランはアメリカのバックアップする穏健派のシーア派の 政権がイラクを支配することを許すような政治的解決を求めていない。イランの目的はアメリカ に血を流させ、アメリカ兵を撤退させ、イラクがイランの支援する過激派シーア派の支配する国 になり、地域におけるイランの派遣を確立することである。彼等は同時にイランの為にアメリカ 兵の敗退が酷いものになれば、それに応じてアメリカがイランの政権交代を図ることが少なくな ると考える。 (大胆に中略)
The larger lesson here concerns the nature of the Iranian regime and its nuclear ambitions. Iran's provocations in Iraq have been deadly enough, but they might be far more aggressive if the mullahs no longer fear the ability of the U.S. to hit back. As a nuclear power, they may well become even more reckless in attacking the interests of the U.S. and its regional allies. Then we'll see what a real bully looks like. ここで考えるべき、より大きな問題はイランの政権の性格と、その核開発の野心である。イラン のイラクにおける挑戦は酷いものであるが、それでも、宗教権威らがアメリカの反撃能力を恐れ なくなるならば、彼らはより好戦的になるだろう。核武装国になれば、イランは中東地域の アメリカの国益や同盟国へのへの攻撃を強めるであろう。そうなれば、我々は本当の虐めがどん なものかを目の当たりにするのであろう。
Bill Clinton, who had promised that "North Korea will freeze and then dismantle its nuclear program" in 1994, had egg on his face. Talking tough, his people demanded that North Korea admit inspectors to reveal just how far Kim had gotten with his nuclear ambitions. クリントン大統領は1994年の核施設凍結の失敗で、面目丸潰れになり、彼の政権の人たちは より強硬な態度に出てIAEA検査官の査察を受け入れるように迫った。
Kim wouldn't agree unless he was paid off to the tune of $300 million. With tragically naive hopes of helping to stave off famine, the U.S. dispatched a huge food-aid package that did nothing to stem the death toll. For four years now, ever since the North Koreans confirmed that they had finally and at long last built nuclear weapons the world (and especially the U.S.) had been paying them not to build, the United States and four other nations have been involved in a diplomatic dance with Kim called the "six-party talks." 金正日は$300Mのご褒美を受け取るまで、それを認めなかった。北朝鮮の悲劇的な飢餓につ いて、人々を助ける為にうぶなアメリカは膨大な食糧支援を行なったが死者の数を減らすこと にはつながらなかった。北朝鮮は世界が、そしてとりわけアメリカが(核爆弾を開発しない為 に)支援してきたことで、核爆弾を完成させた。その後4年にわたってアメリカと其他の国は 6者会合という名の外交ダンスに関わってきた。
Those talks have now borne fruit, because it appears that the Bush administration has now gone down the same path as everybody else - paying Kim a bribe in exchange for promises of change. We'll hear a lot about how this deal will be enforced with great determination. But it probably won't be, because Kim has the whip hand. Everyone is sure he's crazy, and everyone is fearful he will start a regional war in Asia if he doesn't get his way. その成果が今や現れて、ブッシュ政権は今や他の政権と同じく金正日に賄賂を支払うことに 決めたのだ。変化を約束されたわけで、我々は多くの説明を聞いてきたわけだが、それは信 用できない。何故ならば金正日が手に鞭を持ち、全ての人は彼が狂気であると知っており、 彼が満足しないならアジア地域で戦争を始めることを心配してるからだ。
Why on earth should Kim keep up his end of any bargain? He's running one of the most successful extortion rackets in the history of the world. Why would he give up now? 金正日がバーゲニングを止めるはずは無い。彼は世界の歴史でも最も成功した強盗団をやって いるのだから、彼が諦めるわけは無い。
This deal stands a chance only if China is serious. Despite its limitations, it is an important first step. この核廃棄の合意は、中国が真剣になる場合にのみ、意味がある。合意書には限界がある ものの、それは核廃棄の最初のステップとして重要である。
North Korea may not mind losing Yongbyon; it has almost certainly finished reprocessing the nuclear fuel rods that were stored there ? perhaps enough material for around ten bombs. The stiffer test is its agreement to disclose, before dismantling, all its programmes. Until there is verified progress on that front, the UN sanctions should remain firmly in place. The US should unfreeze only those North Korean bank accounts abroad that are clearly for legitimate trade, not counterfeiting and smuggling. Pyongyang may have signed this agreement, believing it can once again hoodwink the world. It must be made to understand that the rules are different this time and that Beijing is the referee.
>>330 冒頭で拉致に言及してるね。向こうでも知られるようになってきたのかな。 February 13, 2007 -- FOR decades, intelligence agencies have assured the world that Kim Jong Il, the dictator of North Korea, is a psychopathic lunatic with a massive collection of pornography and a habit of kidnapping people from Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea to serve his whims.
細かいことだけど・・・ keep up one's end 自分{じぶん}の責任{せきにん}[役割{やくわり}・職務{しょくむ}]をきちんと果たす、 頑張り通す、最後まで頑張る◆【同】keep [hold] one's end up ・ I kept [held] up my end as a researcher. 私は研究者としての責務を果たした。
A senior Administration official tells us that there has been a "sea change" in the Chinese attitude toward North Korea since last summer's missile launch -- read: Beijing is furious -- and that Beijing is now "heavily invested" in making sure that the deal succeeds. We can only hope this is so.
At the core of yesterday’s multilateral deal is a bilateral “grand bargain” between the US and North Korea, brokered by China. All those tonnes of heavy fuel oil are not half as important as talks between Washington and Pyongyang aimed at “moving towards full diplomatic relations”, US moves to stop designating North Korea as a “state sponsor of terrorism” and the intention to negotiate separately a permanent peace on the Korean peninsula
This encouraging deal ? while still tentative and fragile ? is constructed to maintain momentum, lock in multilateral pressure, and provide regular rewards for the progressive abandonment of each and every phase of North Korea’s nuclear programme. Christopher Hill, the US negotiator, dealt skilfully not only with Washington’s North Korean enemy but also with China and Russia, its great power rivals, and South Korea, its awkward ally.
Some big questions remain. A key difference from the Agreed Framework negotiated by the Clinton administration in 1994 ? so derided by the first-term Bush team ? is that Pyongyang now has the bomb. From now on, each stage of negotiations is going to get even tougher. Second, if the US can treat with North Korea, which has the bomb, can it reach a grand bargain with Iran, which (so far) has not? Third, was it ultimately China that persuaded North Korea to strike a deal, and can Beijing therefore use its growing influence to resolve other international problems? Above all, does Kim Jong-il, the “Dear Leader”, really intend to implement the outline agreement that his representatives have accepted in Beijing? Only if he does will yesterday be remembered as a milestone in the struggle against the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
Along with many experts on North Korea, we're skeptical that Mr. Kim would choose to give up nuclear weapons unless he were convinced that the survival of his regime depended on it. Administration officials say they have been encouraged to believe that China, which controls North Korea's lifelines of fuel and food, has made the regime's disarmament a priority since its nuclear test last fall; recently enacted U.N. sanctions may also help. Trying to push Mr. Kim into a permanent shutdown of plutonium production over the next year is certainly worthwhile. Yesterday's announcement was a start, but as the football-loving Ms. Rice said, "This is still the first quarter."
Half a world away, in a Middle East that is deeply worried that the US is heading for a military showdown with Iran over its alleged nuclear plans, the North Korean deal is cause for hope. It shows that the Bush administration can find diplomatic solutions to major problems. It does not always have to reach for the gun.
The big difference, however, is that there is no one to smooth the path to compromise with the Iranians as was so with North Korea. There, China has been both the mediator (but a mediator with a big stick because if it closed the border, the North Korean economy would totally collapse) and Pyongyang’s protector: Washington has steered clear of overt threats for fear of angering Beijing.
In Iran’s case, there is no equivalent of China. A mediator has to be found. It is not a role the OIC can fulfill. It has to be a government which can negotiate with the US, with the EU and with Iran and whose credibility all three believe in and take seriously. Russia is a possibility. So too are one or two or Iran’s Arab neighbors. There is another alternative: India. It has historic links with Iran and it wants to play a greater role on the world stage. Here is its chance. Washington would certainly not ignore its views.
火曜日に流されているアルカイダのNo2指導者、Ayman al-Zawahiriのビデオの中で ザワヒリはオマル師(Mullah Mohammed Omar)に忠誠を誓い、オマル氏を世界のジハー ディスト運動の指導者(the leader of the worldwide jihadist movement)と呼んで いる。オサマ・ビン・ラーデンへの言及はない。これは指導部の弱体化を示すものと見 られる。
BDAの金融制裁について We have agreed that we will, in the separate working group that has been working on this issue that the Treasury Department heads, seek to resolve the issues concerning Banco Delta Asia. Now, remember that the case is against the bank for activities and so we do need to resolve that. Treasury is working to do that. We've been having good discussions with all of the parties involved in that and we'll look to what kind of remediation needs to take place to resolve our concerns. But that's a legal channel. We've been very clear that it has to be resolved within that channel. But we've said that in 30 days we would seek to resolve it. I think the Treasury will be speaking to these issues at another time.
中国の朝鮮半島核廃棄についての姿勢、1994枠組み合意との違い I don't think you could argue that six years ago China, which -- and by the way, I want to thank the Chinese for their role -- that China was playing anything like the role that it is playing now as a key member of the six-party talks not just hosting those talks but really an active member. I don't think you could argue that at that time there was a coalition that was prepared to press the North Koreans in the way that this group of states has now been prepared to press the North Koreans. And frankly, six years ago, of course, we wanted to have a kind of large comprehensive agreement, but it got derailed by the unwillingness with the North to deal with a number of its programs. So, no, I don't think it was possible.
Iran will be able to develop enough weapons-grade material for a nuclear bomb and there is little that can be done to prevent it, an internal European Union document has concluded. ソラナ委員長の元で作成されたEU外交委員会のイランの核開発についての報告書が提出され イランが核爆弾開発に向かってウラン濃縮を行なっており、それを止めることが困難としてい る(後略) --------------------------------------------------------------------------- この報告書は、内容が部分的にFTに転載されていて ttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/9222452a-bb66-11db-afe4-0000779e2340.html EU report on Iran: details and full text By Daniel Dombey Published: February 13 2007 13:48 | Last updated: February 13 2007 13:48
RESTRICTED 7 February 2007 Iran- reflection paper EU and Iran: the two track approach
GWEN IFILL(司会) GEORGE W. BUSH, President of the United States CONDOLEEZZA RICE, U.S. Secretary of State JOHN BOLTON, Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations NICHOLAS EBERSTADT, American Enterprise Institute ROBERT GALLUCCI, Georgetown University (議論しているのは、1994枠組み合意の交渉代表、ガルーチとAEIのニコラス・エバーシ ュタット)
ttp://www.slate.com/id/2159736/ war stories: Military analysis. Bush Channels BillThe new North Korea deal is surprisingly Clintonian. By Fred Kaplan Posted Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2007, at 5:58 PM ET
Slate:北朝鮮6者会合合意は、驚くほどクリントン的である
Even if both sides now have good intentions (a big if), the next phases of this deal will be rough. North Korea is a closed society; that isn't likely to change soon. How will a true disarmament accord be verified? How much will Kim Jong-il let open to inspectors? (Every country, including the United States, puts limits on such intrusions.) If he starts backing away from commitments, will the other powers be so bold as to back away from theirs? Bush touts the multilateral forum because it binds North Korea's neighbors, especially China, to help enforce any agreement. But it also allows North Korea to play the big powers off one another?a game that they've long played very well.
In sum, this deal has promise; but it's nothing that couldn't have been negotiated four or five years ago, and it's a long way from done. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- カプランは(も?)今回の合意の示す核廃棄シナリオの先行きに大変懐疑的で、米中がそれ を管理できるものか疑問を呈する。中国がその気になれば、1994年のときよりは可能性があ るのかもしれないと暗示している。ブッシュ政権がエンゲージメントに踏み切った背景に、 ボルトンやロバート・ジョセフが国務省を去って、国務省内部にエンゲージメント派の勢力 が強まっているかもと暗示している。
According to administration officials, a turning point came on Jan. 17, when Ms. Rice met in Berlin with Christopher R. Hill, an assistant secretary of state who has been the lead American negotiator with North Korea.
According to the officials’ account, Mr. Hill gave Ms. Rice a one-page description of what the North Koreans had agreed to do. Ms. Rice made two telephone calls to Washington ? first to Stephen J. Hadley, the national security adviser, and then to President Bush. “Do you think we should proceed on this basis?” Ms. Rice asked President Bush. His reply was yes, the administration officials said. ・・・・ ・・・・ Experts who have followed the long haggling over the North Korean program said there are bound to be problems when the time comes for the North to disclose all of its nuclear facilities and dismantle its program. In perhaps a sign of things to come, North Korea’s state press agency released a statement that described the Yongbyon shutdown as a “temporary suspension.” --------------------------------------------------------------------------- この記事が正しいとすれば、アメリカ政府の北朝鮮政策の大きな転換は、ベルリン会議で ヒル国務次官補が北朝鮮から聞きだした、彼らの約束(what the North Koreans had agreed to do)をライス国務長官が見て、ハドレィ安全保障補佐官とブッシュ大統領に相談して GOすることになったという。
President Bush said today he is certain that elements of the Iranian government are supplying deadly roadside bombs that kill American troops in Iraq, even if the innermost circle of the government is not involved.
Mr. Bush said it had been established beyond a doubt that a branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps known as the Quds Force is supplying Shiite groups inside Iraq with particularly deadly, Iranian-designed weapons known as explosively formed penetrators, or E.F.P.s. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- イランの革命防衛隊・海外工作部隊であるQuds Forceが、IEDやEFPをイラクのシーア 派の武装派に供給している、というもので、大統領が発言するからには裏づけが取れている のであろうと思ふ。
Bush said he was confident that the Quds Force, an elite unit of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, provided explosive devices to Iraqi militants but admitted he did not know if Iran's leaders were behind the effort.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 94.62 to 12749.47, to record intraday levels and well above the previous record close of 12673.68. The S&P 500 added 12.25 to 1456.51, and the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 29.93 to 2489.91.
``The economy is still in the process of recovering but we are still seeing weakness in consumption,'' Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Hiroko Ota said this week. ``We share the same view as the Bank of Japan, which is making decisions based on close examination of various data.''
Senior commanders of the Mahdi army, the militia loyal to the radical Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, have been spirited away to Iran to avoid being targeted in the new security push in Baghdad, a high-level Iraqi official told the Guardian yesterday. ガーディアンが昨日イラクの高官から聞いたところ、シーア派のサドル師のマハディ軍 (武装派)のシニアな指揮官等がバクダッドの治安強化の被害を避けるためにイラクを 去ってイランに避難している。
On the day the Iraqi government formally launched its crackdown on insurgents and amid disputed claims about the whereabouts of Mr Sadr, the official said the Mahdi army leadership had withdrawn across the border into Iran to regroup and retrain. イラク政府が正式に武装派の一掃、治安強化に乗り出すにあたり、サドル師の行方が不明 になっておりマハディ軍の指導部がイランに逃れてグループを再結成しようとしている。
"Over the last three weeks, they [Iran] have taken away from Baghdad the first and second-tier military leaders of the Mahdi army," he said. The aim of the Iranians was to "prevent the dismantling of the infrastructure of the Shia militias" in the Iraqi capital - one of the chief aims of the US-backed security drive. 「過去3週間にわたって、イランは第一線と第二線のマハディ軍の指導者をバクダッドから 引き上げさせている」という。イランの狙いはバクダッドの「シーア派・武装派のインフラ を維持すること」であるという。
"The strategy is to lie low until the storm passes, and then let them return and fill the vacuum," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The Tehran authorities were "playing a waiting game" until the commanders could return to Baghdad and resume their activities. "All indications are that Moqtada is in Iran, but that is not really the point," he added. 「戦略は,嵐の過ぎ去るまで伏せている、というもので、その後にバクダッドに戻り真空状況 を埋めるというもの」と高官は述べている。イラン政府は「待ちのゲームを行なってる」。 「全ての示すところはサドル師はイランにいるというものだが、それは本質的な問題では ない」と高官は述べた。(後略)
That smacks of a vicious circle, or perhaps more of a perfect storm that began with the loss of readership. The Washington Post, a model of journalistic excellence, has lost 14% of it circulation since 2000. Across the industry, circulation has been dropping for 20 years, and worse, the pace of decline seems to be accelerating. In the 12 months ending in September of last year, the 50 largest papers lost 3.2% of their daily circulation. Only two newspapers in the top 25 -- the two New York tabloids -- grew circulation during this period, a statement in itself.
Perhaps most worrisome is the loss of young readers, who have drifted away steadily since the early 1970s, long before there was an Internet, when more than 70% of 18- to 34-year-old Americans read a daily newspaper. Last year that figure stood at 35%.
In a series of raids across Baghdad, U.S. and Iraqi forces seized more than 100 Austrian-manufactured sniper rifles in a 24-hour period Feb. 12-13. 12日から13日の24時間のバグダッドでの一連の捜索によって、米軍およびイラク軍 は100丁以上のはオーストリー製狙撃ライフルを押収した。
In a series of raids across Baghdad, U.S. and Iraqi forces seized more than 100 Austrian-manufactured sniper rifles in a 24-hour period Feb. 12-13. The .50-caliber weapons, which were legally exported to Iran in 2006, represent a grave danger to coalition
Analysis
Over the course of the last six months, handfuls of heavy .50-caliber sniper rifles manufactured by the Austrian company Steyr-Mannlicher have been turning up in Iraq. But a series of joint U.S.-Iraqi raids Feb. 12-13 in Baghdad uncovered more than 100 Steyr "HS.50" rifles -- an unprecedented development that bodes ill for U.S. troops surging into the Iraqi capital(ry
The Steyr HS.50s found in Baghdad have been traced through Iran back to the 2005 Austrian deal with the National Iranian Police Organization, presumably by using discernable serial numbers on the weapons(ry
That more than 100 Steyr HS.50s were confiscated in a single 24-hour period in Baghdad suggests two things: First, that such a concentration was put in place in preparation for the building U.S. surge into the Iraqi capital and that the cache could represent the bulk of the rifles supplied to Iraqi Shia by supporters inside Iran. But if substantially larger portions of the original 800 rifles have slipped into the capital, it will be costly for both U.S. and Iraqi forces. The only question is: How many did Iran keep for itself?
The second point to consider is this: U.S. troops almost certainly acted on excellent intelligence, suggesting that if there are more large caches, they very well could be found(ry
Such a powerful weapon in the hands of a single, well-trained professional is trouble enough. But hundreds of these rifles supplied to a large swath of Shiite militias could exact a considerable toll on coalition forces moving into Shiite neighborhoods -- a toll the current level of force protection cannot prevent.
Al-Sadr has lain low, likely somewhere in the holy city of An Najaf, since remarking in January that he feared for his personal safety in the wake of U.S.-Iraqi plans to secure Baghdad and crack down on militias. Since then, he has seen the arrest and kidnappings of Iranian diplomatic officials in Iraq, which surely made him even less willing to risk travel or public appearances.
Even so, al-Sadr reportedly is on the U.S. military's "no-touch list," meaning U.S. forces will not detain him out of fear that his arrest could inflame his supporters and cause them to escalate the overall level of violence in the country. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 最近行方不明で、イランに逃れたとか、そうではないとか様々の情報や議論のあるサドル師 の行方について、STRATFORはイラン逃避説に反対してイラク国内潜伏説を書いてい る。その理由は、米軍はサドル師に直接関わる事を、対立を煽る事になる為に避ける方針な のでイランに逃亡する必要が無い、という事のような。
FTのコメント&アナリシス蘭に、面白いというか何と言うか、考えてしまう記事があって、 (今や世界的に有名になった)円のキャリートレードの方式を利用して、欧州で円ベースの 住宅ローンという(トンでもない)ものがあるのだという。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/d654241c-bc5a-11db-9cbc-0000779e2340.html Why the yen borrowing game could end in players taking a tumble By Peter Garnham and Gillian Tett Published: February 14 2007 20:38 FT:円ベースの借金が大変危険であり得ることについて
House buyers in eastern Europe have recently developed a taste for exotic home finance. Bankers say a significant slice of new mortgages in Hungary are being issued in Swiss francs. Meanwhile, households in Latvia and Romania have developed so much enthusiasm for borrowing in yen that the trend has provoked surprise ? and unease ? from central bankers half a world away in Tokyo. ・・・・ ・・・・ “The magnitude of Japan-funded carry is reaching scary levels, in our opinion,” Barclays says, adding that “even if the macro environment remains benign for carry trades, we cannot rule out the possibility of a sudden unwinding of positions that simply feeds on itself.” More specifically, as investors take bigger bets, some may be so overstretched that they will be forced to exit their positions at the first sign of any jolt ? simply because they cannot afford losses.
“People are much better placed now than they were back in 1998,” says the European head of a global investment bank. “They learnt lessons.”
円について、様々な議論のあるなかで、コラムニスト、Guy de Jonquieresは そんなことは問題ではないとFTに書いている ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/84588af2-bc6b-11db-9cbc-0000779e2340.html The world should stop worrying about the yen By Guy de Jonquieres Published: February 14 2007 20:50 FT:世界は円について思い悩むことを止めるべきだ
Critics of yen under-valuation have two main complaints. One is that it destabilises the global economy by distorting trade at foreign competitors’ expense. However, Japan’s trade surplus has been falling for two years and its impact on world markets is no longer what it was. In the 10 years to 2005, its share of global goods exports halved to less than 6 per cent. ・・・・ ・・・・ Many of those pressing Japan to step in to support the yen are guilty of inconsistency. A few years ago, they were chastising Tokyo for intervening to hold the yen down. Their message was unequivocal: the market must be left to set exchange rates. If that was right then, why is it wrong now? ------------------------------------------------------------------- 大変ストレートな意見で、昔は日銀が通貨市場に介入して円安を図ることはケシカラン、市場 に価格決定を任すべきだといっていた人が、今になって日銀は円安を何とかしろというのは論 理矛盾で一貫性が無い、という。ご尤もな。
Two things combine to make this 65th birthday anniversary and the Lunar New Year most auspicious. The first is that Kim has led the DPRK to score a fifth straight bloodless victory over the world's sole superpower by "outsmarting the US in the game of nuclear bluff" as The Sunday Times in London put it on February 4. He has emerged the first national hero in the 5,000 years of Korean history to fulfill the long-elusive ambition of the Korean people to acquire military capabilities to take the war from the Land of Morning Calm to the heart of the metropolitan USA.
The second is the little-known fact that the birthdate of Kim Jong-il, February 16, 1942, coincides with the Lunar New Year universally observed in East Asia The most significant fact about the six-party talks that ended this Tuesday is US President George W Bush waving a white flag, offering to allow the DPRK to retain its nuclear arsenal as it is. It means the shared recognition of the five parties and the DPRK as a nuclear-weapons state and the US notice that it would lift its financial crackdown on the Korean state.
Kim Myong-chol is author of a number of books and papers in Korean, Japanese and English on North Korea. He is executive director of the Center for Korean-American Peace. He has a PhD from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's Academy of Social Sciences and is often called an "unofficial" spokesman of Kim Jong-il and North Korea. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- アジアタイムズに掲載された北朝鮮の立場を主張する評論。読んでみれば解るように、この 評論はあちこちのメディア記事の切り貼りを都合の良い解釈にあわせて並べ、一方的で非合 理の主張をしている。その意味では、もっともらしい体裁をしているけれどホロン部の主張 と全く同じ。
Winston Churchill famously argued that it is better to “jaw-jaw” than to “war-war.” If that’s the general principle, a new preliminary agreement struck with North Korea by the United States and North Korea’s neighbor countries is probably a modestly hopeful sign.
China, which does not relish the idea of a nuclear North Korea ? or a collapsed regime, which would undoubtedly send a flood of refugees into China ? no doubt played a significant role in prodding North Korea toward this agreement. But President Bush’s administration, which has been known to carry a rhetorical big stick, also showed it can do diplomacy.
The agreement could turn out to be a dud, but it is structured so we will know a lot more about sincerity all around in 60 days, a short period in international politics. Paint us cautiously optimistic. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- アメリカ国内の6者会合合意の評論で、ポジティブなトーンで、内容がまともな評論というの は希少なのだけれど、是はそのなかのひとつ。
・V-shaped recovery in consumer spending ・Personal consumption
・GDP deflator
The GDP deflator remained in a negative YoY trajectory in October-December with a 0.5% decline, but rose in QoQ annualized terms with a 0.1% increase, marking the first marginally positive move since October-December 2004. The import deflator continued to post strong growth (+6.3% YoY), but the impact of high oil prices continued to wind down in YoY terms. Meanwhile, the domestic demand deflator returned to negative YoY growth after the July-September quarter, when it turned positive (+0.1 YoY) for the first time in some eight years since January-March 1998. Among domestic demand deflators, the public and residential investment deflators remained in an upward trajectory, while the capex deflator also bottomed. Above all, the decline in the personal consumption deflator is hurting overall.
Looking ahead, we expect the GDP deflator to return, probably around the July-September 2007 quarter, to a positive YoY level due to an expected decline in growth in the import deflator due to softer prices, and the outlook for renewed gradual improvement in the domestic demand deflator.
・Policy implications
Although the headline GDP numbers were strong, we still lack clear signals that consumption and prices are solidly trending upward(ry
・Market implications
Given the strong corporate earnings posted in Oct-Dec quarter, we expect to see the stock market start lifting off the floor toward the end of the current fiscal year. However, with the prolonging of monetary easing, firms with considerable land on their balance sheet should benefit in a trend that bears some resemblance to the 1987-88 bubble period. In this environment, high-quality stocks are at a disadvantage, which limits upward movement of the major indices.(ry
We expect the “Goldilocks combination” of a gradual appreciation in asset prices, low and stable interest rates, and a continued weakening of the yen in real terms, ironically, as the credibility of the BoJ declines.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 23.15 to 12765.01 -- setting a record for the second straight day. The blue-chip average's biggest gainer was Caterpillar, which rose 2.2% to $67.62 after saying its board had approved a new $7.5 billion share -buyback plan over the next five years.
The S&P 500 edged up 1.51 to 1456.81, and the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 8.72 to 2497.10.(ry
A:テロ国家リスト(list of state sponsors of terror)は法規に基づいて作成された ものなので、そのリストからの除外には所定の法的な手続きが必要になる。我々はワー キング・グループでその話を行う。リストからの除外には、証拠と事実に基づいた法的な、 また規制上の検討が必要である。我々のコミットしていることは、そのプロセスを始める という事である。再度述べるが、その手続きとは事実や証拠に基づく法的なものである。 必要な事実や証拠が充分でなければ、我々は北朝鮮にその提出を求める事になる。
MR. SNOW: I think a lot of times people feel reassured. I've made a couple of calls. You know, for instance, there was some concern, are you going to delist the North Koreans as a terrorist state? And the answer is, not for political reasons. They've got to earn it. It has to be based on facts and performance.
Those are the kinds of concerns that you can expect people to raise. But on the other hand, as we have an opportunity to discuss more fully and frankly, as people at State can walk folks through the various steps in the process, they're going to find out that this is not something for nothing. And that's the most important thing, that the onus not only is on the North Koreans, but also the people who have enforcement responsibilities and opportunities now are more than just the United States. You also bring into it the South Koreans, the Japanese, the Russians, and the Chinese. ttp://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/02/20070215-4.html
>>407 > 「テーブルに戻ればすべてをクリアし、リストから外す。政治的取引なのか、との疑問も > あろうが、答えはノーだ」(ホワイトハウス、スノー報道官) > > (中略) > > トニー・スノーの発言は: > > MR. SNOW: I think a lot of times people feel reassured. I've made a couple of calls. > You know, for instance, there was some concern, are you going to delist the North > Koreans as a terrorist state? And the answer is, not for political reasons. They've > got to earn it. It has to be based on facts and performance. > > Those are the kinds of concerns that you can expect people to raise. But on the other > hand, as we have an opportunity to discuss more fully and frankly, as people at State > can walk folks through the various steps in the process, they're going to find out that > this is not something for nothing. And that's the most important thing, that the onus > not only is on the North Koreans, but also the people who have enforcement > responsibilities and opportunities now are more than just the United States. You also > bring into it the South Koreans, the Japanese, the Russians, and the Chinese. > ttp://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/02/20070215-4.html
Q Thank you, Tony. Two questions. First, a follow-up on the earlier question about conservative disagreement with the President on the North Korean agreement. Elliott Abrams, last time I checked, was still working for the National Security Council when he sent out emails that, from published reports, sound like a disagreement with administration policy.
MR. SNOW: I'm glad you raised it, because I talked to Elliott about that today. Now what he did is he raised a question about how does the piece work when it talks about delisting North Korea as a terrorist state. And based on responses he got within NSC -- you've got to keep in mind, Elliott does the Middle East, and the people who are involved in Northeast Asia responded, and he is satisfied. He had the same concern that many people have had, which is, is this a political deal; are you trying to offer a political deal to the North Koreans, saying, if you come to the table, all is forgiven, we'll delist you. And the answer is, no; just as we have done with other states, you still have performance requirements before you get delisted. And I talked with Elliott about that this morning, and he says this has, in fact, satisfied his concerns, and he does support it.
3)様々な説が流されていてPJMでは「our sources in the intelligence community tell us. Don’t believe al Arabiya, Associated Press or Reuters, at least not yet.」 イラク政府は治安活動強化を行なっている最中なので「成果を強調したい」ために、充分 な調査や健勝を済ませる前にニュースを発表するといったことが背景にあるような。 ttp://pajamasmedia.com/2007/02/abu_ayuuab_almasri_still_at_la.php
"Last October, we informed China we would be filing such a case, but then agreed to hold off, with the support of U.S. industry, when China asked for further bilateral discussion," Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Karan Bhatia said at a House of Representatives hearing on China trade issues.
U.S. software, music and book publishers estimate they lose billion of dollars of sales annually in China because of piracy. Other American companies are also hurt by Chinese sales of counterfeit drugs, auto parts and other goods.
"We've all been humored by the Chinese government over and over again," said Patricia Schroeder, president of the Association of American Publishers. "I think everybody is prepared to take action if we can't get somewhere."
It is also worth noting that Murayama was the only Prime Minister from an opposition party elected since 1945 and that his term in office was cut short due to rejection by their military and Diet of even his weakly worded statement of regret. 村山首相は1945年以降に日本の野党から選ばれた唯一の首相で、彼に任期は「軍隊」のために 短縮化されたが、彼の弱弱しい(従軍慰安婦への)謝罪もその原因であった。
He failed to obtain support in the Diet for an official apology by a margin of almost 2 to 1. In the end, Murayama’s remorse has been directly rejected by subsequent governments, who have preferred to water such statements down even further. 村山首相は議会での正式謝罪を獲得することに、2:1ほどの票差で失敗した。結局のところ村 山首相の謝罪は後継内閣に直接否定され、それら後継内閣は問題を希釈化しようとした。
This rejection stance is embraced to this day by many of the most senior figures in the Japanese government, including the increasingly influential armed forces. そうした拒否が今日まで続いているわけで、日本政府の殆どの高官らによって取られている 姿勢であり、そのなかに加速的に影響力を強めている「軍隊」が含まれる。
One of the recent examples is the ongoing rejection of responsibility for war crimes by the current education minister, who has barred textbooks that even mention the abuse of comfort women until the government can come up with an even more innocuous explanation for how these were treated. 最近の例では、現在の文部科学相による第二次世界大戦の戦争犯罪の否定がある。彼は従軍慰 安婦にふれた教科書を許可せず、より当たり障りの無い説明とすることを求めている。(後略) http://www.internationalrelations.house.gov/110/soh021507.htm Ok Cha Soh, Ph. D.;Thursday, February 15, 2007
The United States has captured nearly a hundred Austrian (Steyr-Mannlicher) HS50 12.7mm (.50 caliber) sniper rifles in Iraq. These rifles were part of a shipment of 800 sold to the Iran national police in 2005, at a cost of some $20,000 each. The Austrians believed that the Iranians wanted the rifles for use against Afghan and Pakistani drug smugglers. The United States saw the weapons as eventually being used against U.S. troops, and placed sanctions on Steyr-Mannlicher, forbidding it to do any business with the United States military.
Defense Department Media Roundtable With Secretary Of Defense Robert Gates And Chairman Of The Joint Chiefs Of Staff General Peter Pace http://www.defenselink.mil/Transcripts/Transcript.aspx?TranscriptID=3890 Presenter: Secretary Of Defense Robert Gates February 15, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Q Mr. Secretary, on -- (inaudible) -- there are reports that not only Iranian IEDs but also sniper rifles that have been delivered from Austria, sold to the Iranian police in huge quantities, showed up in the hands of Iraqi insurgents. Are these reports correct?
SEC. GATES: I don't know.
GEN. PACE: I have heard those reports. I do not know whether or not we have the factual data to claim that as a fact. We can find out. I just don't know. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Getting Asia Right through 2020 というのは、Getting China Right through 2020と いう意味ではないかという気がします。日米と同盟国は、中国に対立的な、封じ込めの ようなセミ冷戦構造を作っても余りよい事はないから、中国を誘導して価値観の違いが あらぬ方向に中国をして暴走させないように誘導するのだ、と言いたいようにも。
It is hard to be optimistic that this time Mr Kim will be as good as his disarming word. North Korea joined the NPT without any intention of honouring its anti-nuclear rules. 今回は、金正日がその言葉どおりに核廃棄を行なうと信じられるほどに楽観的には、とても なれない。北朝鮮はその核不拡散の約束を守る気持ちは全くなしにNPTに参加してきたのだ。
All for one, or all will be lost Then there is the follow-through. Making sure Mr Kim gets nothing for nothing, and little for little, is the best way?if it can be done at all?of keeping him honest. 一度に全てを賭けることは、全てを失うことにつながる。今回の北朝鮮との取引は、金正日 が何もしなければ何も与えない、という事である。核廃棄が少し進歩すれば少し褒賞を与え る。この方式は北朝鮮と取引するには良い方法であって、まあそれは北朝鮮と取引が成立す るとすれば、ということではあるが。
The risk now is that the pressure will ease, and North Korea will feel freer to make mischief. Even America, distracted by the fighting in Iraq, may be inclined to let deadlines slip in search of a quieter life in the remaining two years of Mr Bush's hobbled presidency. That would be a terrible mistake. Having all the neighbours insist on a properly monitored disarming process is the only way to repair some of the damage Mr Kim has been allowed to do to the global anti-proliferation cause. East Asia will never be secure while North Korea has its nuclear bomb. 現在のリスクは圧力が失われることである。そうなれば北朝鮮は間違いをやらかすことがより 自由になる。アメリカはイラクで苦労していてブッシュ政権の残る2年の任期の間を穏やかなら しめる為にデッドラインを先送りしたいとする方向に傾くかもしれない。それはトンでもない 間違いであって、全ての関係諸国が核廃棄のプロセスを適正にモニターすることを主張すべき である。それが北朝鮮の行なったNPT体制のほころびを修復する唯一の道である。北朝鮮が核爆 弾を持てば、東アジアには安全保障はない。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 予想通りエコノミストは金正日をまるで信用していないから、その意味で慎重で批判的な評論 になっている。このエコノミストの態度は一貫性があって、金大中と金正日の「歴史的」なサ ミットがあったとき、華々しい「約束」が発表されて多くのメデイアがお花畑的楽観論を書い ていた時代に、エコノミストは「金正日が約束を守るのかについては、検証してみないと解ら ないのだから楽観論はナンセンス」と書いていて感心した記憶がある・・・
"The Year of the Pig will not be very peaceful," said Hong Kong feng shui master Raymond Lo. 香港の Raymond Loは「猪年は、平和な年ではない」という。
Pig years can be turbulent because they are dominated by fire and water, conflicting elements that tend to cause havoc, Lo said. "Fire sitting on water is a symbol of conflict and skirmish," he said. "We'll also see more fire disasters and bombings." 猪年は、水と火という矛盾する二つの要素に支配されるので大惨事がおきやすいのだと言う。 「水のうえの火は、紛争の象徴で、今年は火災事故や爆弾事件が多いだろう」
"So it will not be surprising to see more gunbattles, murder with guns and bombing attacks in 2007," he said. 「2007年には、銃撃戦や、殺戮、爆弾攻撃や銃による殺戮があっても不思議ではない」
Malaysian feng shui master Lillian Too agreed. "I wish I could say that there won't be natural disasters, but I am afraid it could be as bad as last year," she said. "There could be epidemics," she said. "I am very worried about bird flu. Eat healthy foods and take care of your health." マレーシアの占い師、Lillian Tooも同じ意見である「私は自然災害が起こらないといいたい ところなのだけれど、それは起こると思う」「伝染病の流行が起こるかも知れない。鶏イン フルエンザは心配だ。ヘルシーな食品をとり、健康に注意すべきだ」
"Because of the water element in the Year of the Pig, the economy will continue to grow, which also paves the way for another round of interest rate hikes," said Peter So, a celebrity fortuneteller in Hong Kong. 香港の有名占い師、Peter Soは「猪の年の水の要素の為に経済は継続して成長し金利が上昇 するだろう」という。
Hong Kong soothsayer Alion Yeo is predicting North Korea will undergo a power struggle that will bring leadership changes around May. Last year, the Year of the Dog, Yeo warned that the North Korean nuclear crisis would worsen. 香港のAlion Yeoは昨年、犬の年に北朝鮮の核危機が悪化すると予想した。今年の北朝鮮は 権力闘争が激しくなるだろうという。その結果、5月ごろに指導部の交替があるだろうと予 測している。(後略) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 思うに、占い師と言うのは魅力的な職業に見えて、好き勝手な億億、あるいは英知の限り を尽くした未来予測をエンターティメントとして社会に提供して人を楽しませ、害悪がな い。なんたら評論家だの大学教授だの論説委員よりは社会的貢献が大きいといえないまで も、少なくとも害悪は少なそうな。