今年のアメリカ政治の動向について、ジョージ・ウイルの現状評論。大統領選挙の年であるけれど、オバマ再選の可否 は今のところ判断しづらい。しかし、上下院が共和党支配になるだろうというのは選挙区の票読みなどからほぼ確実と みなされており、アメリカ議会の保守派の支配は、たとえオバマが再選された場合であってさえ影響を及ぼすという ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.bostonherald.com/news/opinion/op_ed/view/20220101obama_neednt_lose_for_gop_to_win/ In 2011, for the first time in 62 years, America was a net exporter of petroleum products. For the foreseeable future, a specter is haunting progressivism, the specter of abundance. Because progressivism exists to justify a few people bossing around most people, and because progressives believe that only government’s energy should flow unimpeded, they crave energy scarcities as an excuse for rationing ? by them ? that produces ever-more-minute government supervision of Americans’ behavior. 2011年は62年ぶりにアメリカがネットでの石油製品輸出国になった年なのだが、これは進歩派にとっては都合の悪いことである。 進歩派というのは政府だけが大きな権限を独占し行使すべきとするので、エネルギー資源の不足というのは政府の規制強化の為 の絶好の理由付けになっていた。(エネルギー資源の潤沢というのは政府規制強化を売り込むためには都合が良くない)
Imagine what a horror 2011 was for progressives as Americans began to comprehend their stunning abundance of fossil fuels ? beyond their two centuries’ supply of coal. Progressives responded with attempts to impede development of the vast proven reserves of natural gas and oil here and in Canada. They bent the willowy Obama to delay approval of the Keystone XL pipeline to carry oil from Canadian tar sands; they raised environmental objections to new techniques for extracting gas and “tight” oil from shale formations. アメリカのエネルギー資源が潤沢であるというのは進歩派にとって恐怖に属することで、進歩派はアメリカ国内とカナダの天然 ガスや石油開発を邪魔する努力を続けた。彼らはこの問題で柳腰のオバマ政権をしてカナダからのタールサンド輸送のKeystone XLパイプラインの認可を遅らせた。彼らはまたシェールガスや石油の開発の規制を高めて開発に反対しようとしている
An all-purpose rationale for rationing in its many permutations has been the progressives’ preferred apocalypse, the fear of climate change. But environmentalism as the thin end of an enormous wedge of regulation and redistribution is a spent force. How many Americans noticed that the latest United Nations climate change confabulation occurred in December in Durban, South Africa? そういう一連の進歩派の錦の御旗というのは地球温暖化であったのだけれど、この問題での環境主義は次第に力を失いつつあっ て、例えば昨年末のダーバンの気候変動国際会議はアメリカ国内で話題にさえならなかった。
The futility of this nullity signaled the end ? probably for decades, if not forever ? of a trivial pursuit that began 14 years ago with the Kyoto Protocol that the U.S. Senate would not even bring to a vote. The pursuit was for a 194-nation consensus obligating a few nations to transfer enormous wealth to many other nations’ governments, to be politically distributed by them, with the supposed effect of ending global warming, if such proves to be. 気候変動国際会議の無益性は、14年前に作られた京都プロトコルの、おそらく数十年の停止か、或いは永久停止を意味する。 アメリカ上院は京都プロトコルの承認可否について議会での投票すら行わなかった。194ヶ国のコンセンサスであるその協定 は数少ない先進国の膨大な富を、その他の国に政治的にモチベートされた手法で移動することをいっていて、それは地球温暖 化防止のためであるとされていた。
Meanwhile, back in the nation that probably would have ponied up the largest portion of this money, sales of the electric-powered Chevrolet Volt were falling short of General Motors’ goals even before reports about fire hazards in crash tests. And a Wall Street Journal headline proclaimed: “Americans Embrace SUVs Again.” そういう寄付の最大の出し手と期待されていたアメリカでは、昨年電気自動車のGMボルトが販売目標達成に失敗している。 WSJの記事は「アメリカ人は再びSUVを歓迎」と書いている
Because of the Energy Department’s myriad scandals and other misadventures as a venture capital firm (Solyndra, Beacon Power Corp., etc.), it is probable that 2011 will be remembered as the high-water mark of industrial policy. This is another way in which events are draining the Obama presidency of some of its power for mischief. If in November Republicans capture the Senate, which must confirm many senior officials of the executive branch and agencies, only weakness of Republican will can enable, for example, the Environmental Protection Agency and the National Labor Relations Board to continue being unconstrained instruments of presidential decrees. エネルギー省のソリンドラ(破産した政府支援の太陽光パネル製造メーカー)スキャンダルやその他の政府支援の失敗(Beacon Power Corp.,とか)により、2011年はアメリカ政府の産業政策(の失敗)を記録する年になるのであろう。これはオバマ政権 の権力の使い方の失敗で、11月の選挙で共和党が上院を多数派支配することになれば、上院は多くの政府機関、特に環境庁や 全米労働評議会(National Labor Relations Board)のトップを承認する権限があるので、その影響が顕在化するだろう。
Obama needn’t lose for GOP to win By George F. Will Sunday, January 1, 2012 - Updated 23 hours ago
Indeed, nearly 60 percent of respondents believe that inflation was the #1 issue, while housing costs ranked #6. Healthcare and education costs, employment, social security, wealth gap, and corruption all made the top ten. ・・・ To me, one of the biggest questions next year is whether China can create the necessary political conditions, amid one of the most important transitions in a decade, to forge ahead with its restructuring. With the anticipated slow down in growth and a shrinking export surplus, there appears to be an opportunity to steer the ship of state in a different direction. Yet with a political leadership still unsettled, I find it hard to be optimistic over the extent of progress next year. But I am fully open to being surprised.
ワシントン・ポストから(=民主党穏健派)見てさえ、オバマ政権は環境左翼に傾きすぎていると言っている事になる。アメ リカ政治論壇の現状の雰囲気が、どのあたりに重心を置くのかを伺わせる。環境左翼は、このことの意味を軽く考えないほう が良いと思える。 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/overcharged/2011/12/30/gIQAzQ0yUP_story.html The Post’s View Overcharged By Editorial Board, Published: January 2 過大な、EVへの支援政策を止めるべき ワシントン・ポスト社説 1月2日
Evidence is mounting that President Obama was overly optimistic to pledge that there would be 1 million EVs on the road by 2015. Electric cars are not likely to form a significant part of the solution to America’s dependence on foreign oil, or to global warming, in the near future. They simply pose too many issues of price and practicality to attract a large segment of the car-buying public. More prosaic fuel-economy innovations such as conventional hybrids, clean-diesel cars and advanced gasoline engines all show much more promise than electrics.
The ethanol credit was on the books for 30 years before it finally died. Let’s hope Congress can start unwinding the federal government’s bad investment in electric vehicles faster than that. アメリカ議会が政府の誤った政策であるEVへの税金控除を早期に廃止することを望みたい。
NEW YORK (AP) -- For the first time, the top export of the United States, the world's biggest gas guzzler, is - wait for it - fuel. Measured in dollars, the nation is on pace this year to ship more gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel than any other single export, according to U.S. Census data going back to 1990. It will also be the first year in more than 60 that America has been a net exporter of these fuels. Just how big of a shift is this? A decade ago, fuel wasn't even among the top 25 exports. And for the last five years, America's top export was aircraft.(ry
Myth #3: If the U.S. produced more of its energy requirements, the price at the pump would be lower. アメリカがエネルギーの国内生産でまかなえるならガソリン価格は低下する 実際にはアメリカ国内のガソリン価格はグローバルな石油価格で左右される Eurasia Review: ... it would not matter much if the United States produced 100 percent of what it consumed or whether it all came from the Persian Gulf, because the price at the pump is determined by the worldwide oil market. If more oil is put on market from anywhere around the globe, the price will go down; similarly, if oil production is cut anywhere in the world and not offset by increases elsewhere, the price will go up.
Myth #6 - this one will get the conversation really going: World's oil production has already peaked and as the reserves dwindle, more wars will be fought over the scarce energy resources. 世界の石油生産は既にピークを打っていて石油埋蔵が減少し始めており、希少な資源を求めて戦争が増える そうではない Eurasia Review First of all, “experts” have been repeatedly predicting the depletion of the world’s oil reserves since the late 1800s, but it never seems to happen. New technologies and periodic higher prices make previously uneconomic deposits viable ? such as the tar sands and shale oil that have recently become economic ? thus sustaining world production. Second, academic research has indicated that conflicts are much more likely over allocation of money received from abundant natural resources (for example, fighting in Nigeria over who gets proceeds from oil exports) than conflict over scarce resources that can be priced in a market. That is, it is cheaper to pay the market price than to go to war.
If you are doubtful about nuclear power, or you are simply a political opportunist, this event was the final nail in the coffin, the proof that the end had arrived. For you, it provided more evidence that nuclear power is inherently unsafe and that its use, as American scientist Alvin Weinberg once said, is a Faustian bargain. (It was a remark that Weinberg wished he had not made and which his staff and supporters tried to justify by explaining that in the German legend, Faust finally gets his soul back, having foolishly pledged it to the devil.) もしあなたが原子力懐疑派とか、或いは政治的な機会便乗者であれば、この事故というのは棺に打たれる最後の釘を意味する。 最終的な証明が現れたのだ。原子力発電は安全ではなく、その利用はアメリカの科学者 Alvin Weinbergの言ったように、 ファウストの契約である。
Such nonsense aside, the extraordinary thing about Fukushima is that although almost 25,000 Japanese died as the result of the earthquake and tsunami, no one died directly from the nuclear accident or from the release of radioactivity. The buildings and containment structures survived as they were designed to 40 years ago. This, despite a wall of water 45 feet high with incalculable force. まあそういうナンセンスはさておき。福島原発事故でおどろくべきことは、大地震と津波で25000人の日本人が亡くなったにも かかわらず、原発事故や放射性物質漏洩のために死んだ人が一人もいないことである。40年前に設計した格納構造はそれに耐 えた。これは45フィートの津波の信じがたいような力に耐えたということである。
Fukushima, a once-in-history accident, was a victory of design and construction for its time. Even the radiation releases are now found to be lower than expected, even those in the exclusion zone are surprisingly low. Despite eager attempts to find a surge in new cancers around the plant, none has shown up. 放射性物質漏洩は予想されたよりも少なく、立ち入り禁止区域の中でさえ、それは驚くほど低い。原発周辺での新規の癌患者 を見つけ出そうという熱心な努力にもかかわらず、一人も見つかっていない。
The lessons are to incorporate more passive features, better power supply and to protect the emergency generators. Newer designs already incorporate some of these features -- and all will going forward. The industry has reacted with unusual alacrity in the past to new lessons, something uncommon across the broad range of industrial endeavor from aircraft to automobiles. As with aviation, nuclear safety is always a work in progress, a striving. この事故の教訓というのは(ECCSなどの)パッシーブな構造が重要であり、非常用の予備電源の保護と確保に改善のあるべき こと、といったもので新規の原発設計にはこれらは既に取り入れられている。原子力産業はこれらの教訓をマジに学んで前に 進もうとしている。航空機産業と同じように原子力産業も事故から学ぶ。(後略)
2012 is likely to be more exciting politically. 政治的に、今年のタイはエキサイティング The “honeymoon” for the government ? if that really exists in Thai politics ? appears to be over. And politicians from the government camp seem to be more confident, venturing into controversial issues that have led to conflicts in recent years ? such as constitutional amendment and an amnesty for fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. 新政権のハネムーンは明らかに終わり、政府側の政治家たちは自信を深めているように見えて、議論や対立の多い政策に踏み 込むようだ。憲法の改正とか、タクシン・シノワトラへの恩赦などである(後略)
France's President Nicolas Sarkozy demanded on Tuesday that Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad step down, accusing him of overseeing sickening "massacres" against his own people. Meanwhile, an explosion struck a gas pipeline on Tuesday in central Syria in an attack the government blamed on terrorists, the state-run news agency said. There were no casualties. The blast happened near the town Rastan in the restive Homs province, SANA reported. There have been several pipeline attacks since the Syrian uprising began in mid-March, but it is not clear who is behind them at a time when violence across the country is spiralling out control, unearthing long-standing grievances and resentments. 一方、国内でガスパイプラインへのテロが頻発している
ttp://www.debka.com/article/21611/ President Bashar Assad is digging in for a full-scale civil war: DEBKAfile reports exclusively that a fortress is under construction for the Syrian ruler, family, his loyal generals and ruling elite in the northwestern Alawite (Al-Ansariyyah) Mountains ? should Damascus become too hot for them. From there, the Assads will continue to fight for their survival. These mountains have the only dense forests in the vicinity of Syria's Mediterranean coast. The Al-Ansariyyah range averages 32 kilometers (20 miles) in breadth and a peak elevation of just over 1,200 meters. The tallest mountain, Nabi Yunis east of Latakia, is 1,562 meters (5,125 feet) high. The range slopes down from its northern tip to an average altitude of 900 meters (3,000 feet) and 600 meters in the south. Our military and intelligence sources report Syrian engineering corps crews working at speed to build a fortified encampment, partly inside caves and tunnels, on the wooded slopes. Its perimeter is enclosed with anti-tank defenses armed with anti-air batteries. When finished, the camp will be one of the most heavily fortified strongholds in the Middle East.
IRNAによると、イラン軍司令官は「この警告を繰り返すつもりはない。敵の空母は、わが軍の軍事演習を理由にオマーン 湾に移動した。米国の空母に対し、ペルシャ湾に戻らないよう勧告し強調する」と述べた。この司令官は、具体的に空母を 名指しせず、ペルシャ輪に戻った場合にイランが講じる措置についても明らかにしなかった。イラン海軍は、10日にわたる 軍事演習を2日に終了させた。 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Army chief Ataollah Salehi said the United States had moved an aircraft carrier out of the Gulf from because of Iran's naval exercises, and Iran would take action if the ship returned.
It did not name the carrier, but the USS John C Stennis leads a task force in the region, and the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet website pictured it in the Arabian Sea last week.
"Iran will not repeat its warning ... the enemy's carrier has been moved to the Sea of Oman because of our drill. I recommend and emphasize to the American carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf," army chief Salehi said. "I advise, recommend and warn them over the return of this carrier to the Persian Gulf because we are not in the habit of warning more than once." ttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/03/us-iran-usa-idUSTRE80208P20120103
ISDAによる北朝鮮状況の纏め、現状アセスメント。常識的ではあるけれど、良くまとまっているように思える ISSUE BRIEF:North Korea after Kim Jong-Il: Implications for East Asian Security Rajaram Panda and Victoria Tuke January 2, 2012
The main concerns regarding North Korea may be highlighted here.1 As already stated, the first is the question of stability and how to guarantee this. Kim Jong-un’s two elder brothers could try to indulge in a power play to unseat their younger sibling or could be used as pawns by the government or the military. In the short term, the succession process might coalesce around the third dynastic succession led by Kim Jong-un. It is to be seen if the new leader will be able to consolidate power. This process is bound to create a lot of uncertainty.
The second concern is whether Kim Jong-un will indulge in any military action to signal that he is under control and thereby warn the US, Japan and South Korea not to push for the fall of the regime or try to create/encourage conditions for the regime’s fall. Should Kim Jong-un feel insecure, some kind of military action to intimidate Pyongyang’s neighbours cannot be ruled out. That would be a huge miscalculation by Pyongyang. President Lee Myung-bak already announced after the incidents in March and November 2010 that South Korea would not tolerate any more provocations and would be prepared for a military response.
The third concern is what long-term policy the new leader would follow and whether to liberalise the economy by market reforms. If he does adopt such a policy, it would be a good opportunity for the other members of the six-party talks to push for the denuclearization of North Korea's ballistic missile programs. If this path is followed, regional stability can be attained, thus signaling the dawn of a new era for Asia. At the moment, this appears to be the least likely of the paths the new leader will opt for. China’s role on the future of North Korea is going to be crucial to watch but its true objectives would remain difficult to identify conclusively.
Despite the uncertainties, China and South Korea have decided to work towards quick resumption of the six-party talks on denuclearization. South Korea’s lead nuclear negotiator Lim Sung-nam visited Beijing in the aftermath of Kim’s death and held discussion with top Chinese officials including Chinese nuclear envoy Wu Dawei. The two nuclear negotiators pledged to support activities to promote stability in the North.
However, it does not appear likely that the six-party talks on denuclearization will resume anytime soon as Pyongyang is not going to give up its nuclear weapons. Yet, there is no better option available to all parties than to try making efforts to get Pyongyang back to the negotiating table with the hope that some day it will yield, see reason and understand the futility of pursuing its current policy of nuclear weaponisation
DOD Seeks Safe Hormuz Passage for All, Official Says By Cheryl Pellerin American Forces Press Service
WASHINGTON, Jan. 3, 2012 ? Closure of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has been holding military exercises since Dec. 23, will not be tolerated, Pentagon Press Secretary George Little said today.
The U.S. Navy operates under international maritime conventions to maintain “a constant state of high vigilance to ensure the continued safe flow of maritime traffic in waterways critical to global commerce,” Little added. “Our transits of the Strait of Hormuz continue to be in compliance with international law,” he said, “which guarantees our vessels the right of transit passage.”
Little said the department is committed to protecting maritime freedoms that are the basis for global prosperity -- one of the reasons U.S. military forces operate in the region. “We are obviously aware of reports of missile tests that are apparently tied to Iranian naval exercises that began in late December,” he said, adding that Iran has the right to conduct exercises and that it has taken no hostile or aggressive action against U.S. Navy vessels in the region. “The United States believes that the Iranian regime should devote its energy and resources to establishing friendly relations with countries in the Gulf region,” Little said. ttp://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=66655
Iran’s rial rallied after a 12 percent drop yesterday, trading at 15,850 to the U.S. dollar in street markets late today after reaching 17,800 yesterday, the state-run Fars news agency reported. The decline in the value of the rial has nothing to do with the new sanctions instituted by the U.S. on Iran’s central bank, Governor Mahmoud Bahmani said, according to a separate Fars report. イラン国営放送に依れば、中央銀行総裁のMahmoud Bahmaniは、通貨の下落は米による制裁措置とは関係がないと語った
Middle East powerhouse Turkey on Wednesday warned against a sectarian Cold War in the region and said rising Sunni -Shi'ite tensions would be 'suicide' for the whole region. "Let me openly say that there are some willing to start a regional Cold War," Foreign Minster Ahmet Davutoglu told state-run Anatolian news agency before heading to Shi'ite Iran. "We are determined to prevent a regional Cold War. Sectarian regional tensions would be suicide for the whole region," Davutoglu said, adding such effects would last for decades. "Turkey is against all polarizations, in the political sense of Iran-Arab tension or in the sense of forming an apparent axis. This will be one of the crucial messages that I will take to Tehran."
He singled out the case of neighboring Iraq, which is splitting up into sectarian and ethnic fiefdoms, with Kurds consolidating their autonomy in the north, Shi'ites dominant across the south and entrenched in Baghdad, and Sunnis exploring whether to set up their own autonomous region in the centre and west. "Our Iraq policy foresees close contact with all sides. No one should make a mistake here. No one should act with a conviction that one ideology, one sect, one ethnicity could dominate in any country as it was the case in the past. The societies in the region want a new political understanding." 此れに関連してトルコは対イラク政策において、イラクの宗教的二極化を憂慮し、すべての勢力との親密な接触を行うとした。 かってのように単一のイデオロギー、宗派、民族が一国を独占することは望ましくなく、中東諸国はあらたな政治的解決を図る べき時代であるとした。
MANSOURA, Egypt ? It's the morning of the third and final round of Egypt's parliamentary elections and Ammar Fayed, an activist for the Muslim Brotherhood's political party, is nervous as hell. The 28-year-old marketing manager, who sits on the executive board of the youth branch of the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) in the governorate of Dakahlia, sports a tiny FJP pin on the lapel of his gray blazer and a thumb stained blue from voting. He explains the situation: Thirty-six seats are up for grabs in this province in the fertile Nile Delta. The conservative region is in the Brotherhood's heartland -- it should have been a cakewalk. There's just one problem, Fayed admits: "We made a fundamental miscalculation." ムスリム同胞団・青年部のの幹部会のメンバーであるAmmar Fayedは、選挙の結果について、ナイルデルタはムスリム同胞団の 票田であったはずだといい「我々は基本的な計算違いをしていた」という。
The Salafis appear poised to claim between 25 and 30 percent of the vote, though the Brotherhood could still win an outright majority and will certainly become the largest party in the new parliament. Who could have predicted that the Salafis -- adherents to a fundamentalist version of Islam that until Egypt's revolution eschewed politics as un-Islamic -- would morph into an electoral powerhouse? Even the Brotherhood, whose vote-counting abilities would impress the likes of Karl Rove, never saw it coming, and the Salafis' success threatens to upend the movement's carefully laid plans for dominating Egypt's post-revolutionary political scene. サラフィストのここまでの台頭は誰も予想できなかった。ムスリム同胞団でさえ。
The parties' disagreement over how quickly to implement sharia law, AbdulRahman explained, is at the center of their conflict. "For the Nour Party, one of the primary major goals is to implement sharia at the nearest possible opportunity," he said.
ttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/asia-stocks-trade-mostly-lower-with-techs-weak-2012-01-04?link=MW_home_latest_news By Virginia Harrison and V. Phani Kumar, MarketWatch HONG KONG (MarketWatch) ? Chinese stocks finished at their lowest level in nearly three years to lead broad losses among major Asian markets Thursday, as worries about the property sector and tight liquidity conditions hit investor sentiment. 上海総合株価指数は2009年3月以来の安値に、不動産価格の低下と流動性の低下により マーケット・ウオッチ
In China, the Shanghai Composite CN:000001 -0.97% fell 1% to 2,148.45, dropping to its lowest closing level since March 2009, and again failing to latch on to early gains. The Shenzhen Composite plunged 3.5% to 813.99.
(Reuters) - The Obama administration will unveil a "more realistic" vision for the military on Thursday, with plans to cut tens of thousands of ground troops and invest more in air and sea power at a time of fiscal restraint, officials familiar with the plans said on Wednesday. 海軍と空軍への投資を増やし陸軍の兵士を削減する計画を提案すると見られる
Though specific budget cut and troop reduction figures are not set to be announced on Thursday, officials confirmed to Reuters they would amount to a 10-15 percent decline in Army and Marine Corps numbers over the next decade, translating to tens of thousands of troops. 木曜日の発表には兵力削減の数値は含まれ無い見込みだが、ロイターの取材した高官に依れば陸軍と海兵隊の10−15%削減 を今後10年間に行う予定。これは数万人の規模に及ぶ。
Land sales slowed sharply in China last year, according to a series of industry reports that highlight the deepening woes of debt-laden local governments who depend on land auctions as a crucial revenue source. Nearly 900 land auctions failed in 2011, about three times more than in 2010, Centaline, a real estate company, said. Meanwhile government revenues from land sales fell 13 per cent in 130 big cities to Rmb1,900bn ($300bn), according to the China Index Academy, a property research group. 昨年の中国の土地販売が急速に低調になっていることが解った。昨年は900近くの土地オークションが失敗し、これは2010年の 3倍の大きさ。政府の土地販売に関わる税収は130の大都市で13%低下した。
Official data about how the land market performed in 2011 will not be published until later this month, but the industry numbers leave little doubt that there has been a serious downturn since 2010, when land sales surged 70 per cent. 2010年は土地販売が70%拡大したのに比べて2011年の低調化は明確である。
Although weaker sales were expected as a consequence of the government’s sustained campaign to cool the once-bubbly property market, the deterioration appears to have been quite sudden, accelerating at the end of the year. Centaline noted that one-third of the failed auctions ? when bids either failed to materialise or were too low ? occurred in November and December. Huang Yu, vice-president of the China Index Academy, told state media that the national land market was entering a “deep freeze”. 失敗した土地オークションの三分の一が11月と12月に発生しており市場の状況の悪化は突然であり年末に向けて加速化している 中国統計院の副所長Huang Yuは国営メディアに答えて中国国内の土地市場は「ディープ・フリーズ」に入りつつ有ると述べた
“If this continues, it will be a major blow to the financial situation of the local governments,” said Ran Tao, an economic professor at Renmin University in Beijing. “They have become increasingly reliant on land sales for financing, especially for their investment in infrastructure and industrial parks.” 北京の人民大学の経済学教授Ran Taoは「もしこれが継続するなら、それは地方政府の財政に対する強い衝撃になる」という 「地方政府は加速的に財政収入を土地販売に頼るようになっており、とくにインフラ開発、産業パーク開発などのプロジェク トの金融についてそうである」
Local governments owed Rmb10,700bn at the end of 2010, and 53 per cent of that must be paid back before the end of next year, according to the national audit office. Analysts have said that the debt load is manageable ? it amounts to just about a quarter of gross domestic product. But the shortfall in land revenues will make life more difficult for local governments. 中国の地方政府は2010年末にRmb10,700bnの負債があり、その53%は来年末に支払期限がくる。アナリストは負債がGDPの四分 の一であるから管理可能と言っている。しかし土地販売収入の低下は地方政府を苦しめる。
Guan Qingyou, a researcher at Qinghua University, calculates that land sales formed 74 per cent of their revenue base in 2010, up from 10 per cent in the late 1990s. The central government has been gradually implementing tax reforms to give provinces and municipalities additional revenue channels, but direct transfer payments will be needed to plug most of the hole for the time being. Qinghua大学の研究者であるGuan Qingyouに依れば、土地販売は2010年の地方政府の収入の74%を占め、1990年代に比べて 10%上昇している。中央政府は地方政府の税収の道を開くべく徐々に税制を改めてきたが、大幅な財政収入の不足が起き るなら直接支援が避けられない。
To try to revive land auctions, local governments have started to cut prices and break plots into smaller pieces. However, some of their actions have also run contrary to Beijing’s cornerstone policy of building up more public housing for poorer citizens. The China Real Estate Information Corporation noted that several municipalities had suspended a requirement that developers buying land must also build a certain amount of affordable housing on it. The decline in land sales revenue would have been even worse but for a commercial property market that has been much more robust than the residential market. But analysts warn a growing supply glut in the commercial sector could soon change that, adding to the headache for local governments. 地方政府は土地販売促進のため値下げや小口販売を始めている。土地販売の不調は住居用に比べて商業用途のものはその程度 が少なかったのだが、アナリストは今後商業用不動産にも不調の波が襲うとみている。
ttp://www.relohomesearch.com/PRC.aspx Property ownership development In China land is owned by the State. A form of private ownership is accepted through transfer of ‘land-use rights’ whereby land technically is still owned by the State and a holder of the land-use rights may lease the land for a certain period. Land-use terms vary according to use of the property and as a guideline are - 40 years for office, 50 years for industrial, and 70 years for residential.
英・エコノミスト、ソーシャルメディア(ツイッター他)のノイズについて ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.economist.com/node/21542154 Too much buzz:Social media provides huge opportunities, but will bring huge problems Dec 31st 2011 | from the print edition ノイズ多杉:ソーシャルメディアには大きな可能性とともに多くの問題が エコノミスト、31日
Everyone will need better filters?editors, analysts, middle managers and so on?to help them extract meaning from the blizzard of buzz. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 我が国にはこの問題についての名言があって「嘘を嘘と見抜けない人は・・・」
1. China 543,000 2. India 341,000 3. Japan 251,000 4. Italy 249,000 5. South Korea 239,000 6. Turkey 217,000 7. Spain 149,000 8. Greece 111,000 9. South Africa 98,000 10.France 78,000
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Private-sector payrolls increased 325,000 in December, led by the service-providing sector and small businesses, according to the ADP employment report released Thursday. The November level was revised to 204,000 from a prior estimate of 206,000. Markets look to ADP's report on private-sector payrolls to provide some guidance on the U.S. Labor Department's jobs estimate, which will be released Friday and includes information on both private- and public-sector payrolls. However, analysts have noted seasonal-adjustment issues that have led to past ADP estimates for December substantially missing the government's data. Economists polled by MarketWatch expect the Labor Department on Friday to report strengthening employment, with overall nonfarm payrolls up 150,000 in December, compared with 120,000 in November. Economists also expect the unemployment rate to rise to 8.7% from 8.6%.
There must be some seasonal issues here. When asked about that possibility on CNBC just now, Joel Prakken of Macroeconomic Advisers, which puts the number together with ADP, said, “Fair enough.” But he also said this comes in the context of improving jobless claims and other signs of a better labor market. He also hesitated, though, to call this a “breakout number” signaling a big change in the weather. Because of seasonality issues, he said, “we have to be a little more cautious about this number.” ttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/01/05/adp-reports-ginormous-gain-in-jobs/?mod=WSJBlog ADP Reports Ginormous Gain in Jobs, But Beware Seasonals WSJ マーケットビート
Q4のアメリカの経済データは比較的良好で、回復に向かうかに見えるのだけれど、ヨーロッパの債務危機のgdgdを他所に アメリカは経済成長回復軌道に乗るのか? について、イギリスのエコノミスト Gavyn Daviesの評論 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2012/01/04/us-immune-from-eurozone-contagion-so-far/#axzz1ib3RgCmK US immune from eurozone contagion so far January 4, 2012 5:47 pm by Gavyn Davies 今のところアメリカはユーロ圏からの感染には免疫性があるように見えるが by Gavyn Davies FT
In the second half of 2011, the US economy appeared to buck the impact of the eurozone crisis, with American economic data surprising on the strong side in the final quarter of the year. But, as the new year begins, it seems improbable that economic activity in the US and the eurozone can remain so divergent for much longer. ヨーロッパとアメリカの経済動向が継続的に乖離したままというのは考えにくい
So how might trans-Atlantic contagion occur? By far the most worrying channel is via stress in the eurozone banking sector. Consider the following graph, which shows financial conditions indicators in the US and the eurozone, calculated by Michael Rosenberg at Bloomberg: ttp://blogs.r.ftdata.co.uk/gavyndavies/files/2012/01/ftblog1984-590x403.gif トランス・アトランティック感染が起きるとすれば、ユーロ圏の銀行セクター経由のものであろう
Many economists (and I include myself in this) are beginning to feel very uneasy about the ability of central bank balance sheets to absorb these shocks in an unlimited manner. This has never been tried before in anything like comparable circumstances. But no-one seems to have a viable alternative to what the central banks are being forced to do. And that is the only reason why the eurozone crisis has not turned into another Lehman shock, along with a renewed global recession.
There appears to be some disparity between ADP’s perspective on jobs in December, and the data in the ISM’s services index for December. ADP’s report shows the ”service-providing sector” contributing 84% (273,000) of the 325,000 increase in private payrolls last month. But the ISM’s gauge indicates employment in the service sector continued to contract, albeit at a slower pace, for the third time in four months. ISM says six industries added jobs, while nine decreased and three held steady. 今日のADPの12月民間雇用統計はISMの12月のインデックスと矛盾するところがあって、ADPの新規雇用はサービス提供セクター が84%(27.3万人)寄与しているのだが(新規雇用全体は32.5万人)、12月のISMではサービス業の雇用は減少している。 減少幅は少ないのだが4ヶ月中3度目の減少である。ISMでは6つの産業セクターで雇用増加、9つのセクターで雇用減少、 3つのセクターで変わらずという。
A couple of respondents’ comments include: ”Retirees not being replaced” and ”Still in holding pattern; positions are available, but are not being filled.” ISMの雇用状況に、幾つかのコメントがされているが、例えば「退職者の補充をせず」「雇用枠はあるが補充していない」 など。
We cannot be more clear on this: ADP has done a very poor job giving you an early read on private payrolls. This is the historical record ? not a slice-it-up analysis by a couple of economists. Let us be further clear: after years of just a downright dour backdrop, we would love nothing more than for this number to be right (it gets tiring writing about how dismal things are), but we will not let a mediocre indicator with a bad forecasting track record dictate when it’s time to change our tune. As for our estimate for Friday, given the above we are not changing our Private NFP call of 137k.
エネルギーソースへの政府補助金 Power Source Total U.S. Subsidy (millions) Coal $1,358 Oil and gas $2,820 Nuclear $2,499 Biomass $7,761 Geothermal $273 Hydro $216 Solar $1,134 Wind $4,986
エネルギーを石油バレルあたりに換算した時の、政府補助金 Power Source 2010 U.S. Power Consumption (million bbl. oil equivalent) Subsidy Cost per Energy Equivalent Barrel of Oil Consumed ソース 米国の消費量(石油換算) 政府補助金(換算した石油のバレルあたり) Coal 3,439 $0.39 Oil and gas 10,012 $0.28 Nuclear 1,394 $1.79 Biomass 381 $20.37 Geothermal 35 $7.80 Hydro 414 $0.52 Solar 18 $63.00 Wind 153 $32.59
A renewable boondoggle? On the other hand, renewable energy's costs to the government are in some cases so high, and the actual energy returns so low, that it hardly seems worth the investment. Solar's pitiful slice of American power use -- less than a single day's worth of oil consumption -- is underwritten by enough taxpayer money to simply buy most of the power outright and provide it to taxpayers for free.
Wind power, on top of its costly handout, requires another layer of expense: conventional power generation in a supporting role. Cambridge Energy Research Associates concluded that wind power "is more expensive than conventional power generation, in part because wind's intermittent production patterns need to be augmented with dispatchable generators to match power demand."(ry
中国人権民主運動情報センターによると、当局があるモスクを「違法な宗教活動場所」と見なし、警察を出動させ同自治 区同心県河西鎮の桃山村を包囲し、改築が完了したばかりのモスクを強制的に取り壊そうとした。その際、現地の回族数 百人と警官の間で衝突が発生したという(ry ------------------------------------------------------ <ロイター> ttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/03/us-china-protest-muslims-idUSTRE80205S20120103 Chinese Muslims clash with police over mosque BEIJING | Tue Jan 3, 2012 1:39am EST
ttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/fxmarketalerts/2012/01/06/09/ Some reports that South Korean Ministry of Defence have verified that North Korea nuclear explosion rumours is not true. - no details. Earlier some unconfirmed rumours that North Korea nuclear reactor exploded around 1100 KST. Radioactive particles will reach Seoul soon. And Pyongyang had ordered evacuation order to Youngbyun province population.