(Reuters) - The European Union tightened its sanctions against Tehran on Thursday and laid out plans for a possible embargo on Iranian oil in response to mounting concerns over the OPEC producer's nuclear work. At a meeting in Brussels, EU foreign ministers decided new sanctions on energy, transport and financial sectors should be drawn up in time for their next meeting in late January. EUの外相会議はイランに対する新たな経済制裁を行うことを決め、エネルギー、輸送、金融セクターの制裁措置を次回の会議 までに決定するとした。
The measures could lead to gradual cuts in Europe's imports of Iranian crude, although some EU governments want assurances that any impact on their economies would be limited before giving their final approval, diplomats said. このため、イランからの石油輸入をしだいに削減することにつながる可能性がある。しかし一部の国はイランの石油輸入禁止 に伴う経済的インパクトを回避すべく、最終決定前に代替措置を講じることを求めている。
"We are working on it," French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe told reporters when asked about the possibility of an oil ban. "We have to work with different partners so that the interruption of (oil) deliveries from Iran could be compensated by a rise in production in other countries." フランス外相のAlain Juppeは「経済制裁について検討中だが、イランからの石油輸入の削減分が他の国の石油増産などにより 補完されるように交渉しなくてはならない」とした。
Greece is wary, because financial woes have led it to buy more Iranian crude. Sources say Tehran has been offering better financing terms while banks are reluctant to lend to Athens. "Greece has voiced some concerns, we have to take them into account," Juppe said. イランからの石油輸入に依存しているEU国はギリシャで、経済危機の発生以降ギリシャの石油輸入は以前よりも多くイラン に依存している。銀行はギリシャの輸入のための金融措置を講じることに躊躇っているがイランは他の国よりも有利な条件で ギリシャに石油を輸出している。Juppe外相は「ギリシャが問題を訴えている。そのことを考慮する必要がある」と述べた。
ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2168664e-196b-11e1-92d8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1er67Punh Wolfgang Schauble, Germany’s finance minister, said the country has dropped its opposition to lending money to the IMF, while Mario Draghi, ECB president, hinted that the region’s central bank could take more aggressive action. The bond market’s response has been a rally as dramatic as the heavy sell-offs of the past month. Spanish 10-year bond yields have dropped 51 basis points to stand at 5.66 per cent. Italy’s 10-year bond yields are down 38bp to 6.61 per cent, below the key 7 per cent level that markets have become fixated on as unsustainable, while the spread between French and German 10-year yields has fallen below 100bp for the first time in more than a month.
ECBのポリーシー・シフトの可能性についてWSJ ----------------------------------------------- tp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204397704577072503083958314.html?mod=WSJ_markets_liveupdate ECB Prepares to Fire Its Bazooka By SIMON NIXON DECEMBER 1, 2011, 3:37 P.M. ET ECBはバズーカ発砲の準備
Could the euro-zone endgame be at hand? For months, the European Central Bank has resisted all inducements to put its balance sheet decisively on the line to save the euro, insisting it wasn't in its mandate to support government borrowing.
But with the euro zone now on the brink of a potentially serious recession and parts of the currency bloc experiencing a severe credit crunch, ECB President Mario Draghi has signaled much more radical action may be forthcoming to prevent the currency bloc from sliding into deflation. That helped further lift euro-zone government bonds, already buoyed by Wednesday's global central bank intervention to provide cheap dollar funding. But how far the ECB goes depends on decisive political action.(ry ・・・ Euro-zone leaders are to meet on Dec. 9 to discuss governance reforms. The stakes couldn't be higher.
The government spent 15% of GDP largely on public works projects in inland regions, financed with loans from the state-owned banks. Investment as a share of GDP soared to 48.5% in 2010, and the M2 measure of money supply ballooned to 140% that of the U.S. 中国政府は内陸部の開発事業にフォーカスして資金を投入し2010年には投資がGDPの48.5%、M2でみたマネーサプライは米国の 140%にまで膨張した
Now comes the hangover. The public works projects are winding down, unleashing a wave of unemployment and an uptick in social unrest. The banks' nonperforming loans are rising, and local governments are insolvent. The country is littered with luxurious county government offices, ghost cities of empty apartment blocks, unsafe high-speed rail lines and crumbling highways to nowhere. 今その結果の困難な部分に直面している。開発事業は終息し失業者が増え、社会的紛争が増えている。銀行の不良債権が増え 地方政府は支払い能力を失っている。中国には郡首長の豪華な官舎とかゴースト・シティとか空っぽのアパートのブロックと か安全ではない高速鉄道とか行き先不明の高速道路ができた。
The government and the more sanguine analysts say low-income housing construction will pick up the economic slack, as activity at the top end of the market contracts. The problem is that even if the government meets its goals, the program is still too small to save the economy. Barclays estimates that it will contribute one percentage point to growth in 2011, and 0.5 percentage points in 2012. 中国政府は低所得階層向け住宅建設を景気減速の対抗政策としているが、それが目標通りに機能したとしても、その計画は 経済の全体に比べて小さすぎる。バークレィズは2011年で1%、2012年に0,5%の経済成長への効果といっている。
There is no easy way to avoid the bust that is coming. The silver lining is that China's increasingly state-led growth model will be discredited, and a debate will begin on restarting the reforms that stalled in the mid-2000s. A financial sector that allocates credit based on politics rather than price signals led China into this mess. Popular pressure to dismantle crony capitalism is building, and the Communist Party would be wise to get in front of it while it can.
Obama’s foolish policy of forcing Mubarak out of office precipitously without giving non-Islamist parties time to organize has resulted in Islamists achieving a sweeping victory in the first round of parliamentary elections. Strength by the Muslim Brotherhood was expected, but the extremely hard line Salafists had a very strong showing. それはオバマのお馬鹿な政策のためで・・・
DETROIT?General Motors Co. will buy back Chevrolet Volts from any owner who fears the car is a fire risk amid a U.S. safety investigation of its lithium-ion battery, the auto maker said Wednesday. GMはリチウムイオン電池の安全性チェックを受け、その事故を心配するすべてのボルト所有者から車の買い戻しを行う。
"If someone asks, we'll snap it up in a second," Mr. Bingol said. He said GM believes the car is safe, but wants to ensure Volt customers are comfortable with their vehicle. 「顧客からの要請があれば直ぐに手続きを行う」とGMのMr. Bingolが述べた。
GM said Wednesday it will miss a target to sell 10,000 Volts in 2011. The company said it will likely hit that number early next year. The company sold 1,139 Volts in November, bringing sales to 6,142 this year. The company has around a four month's supply of Volts in inventory, which is considered high. GMは今年、ボルトを6142台販売しており11月は1139台、在庫は4ヶ月程度をもつ。
Reporting from Washington? Disregarding White House opposition, the Senate unanimously approved new sanctions on Iran as part of its defense bill Thursday night, then passed the bill -- which already faced a veto threat because it requires military custody for certain detainees suspected of terrorism. The must-pass legislation, which includes a 1.6% pay raise for the troops, needs to be merged with a House bill that President Obama’s advisors also have recommended for a veto. The Senate’s bill passed, 93-7, a margin large enough to override a veto. ホワイトハウスの反対にもかかわらず新規のイラン制裁法案は上院の全員一致で可決された。
The sanctions on financial institutions doing business with Iran came after heated warnings from administration officials that such a move could shake oil prices and jolt the struggling economy. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner expressed the administration’s “strong opposition,” saying the measure threatened to undermine international efforts to pressure Iran to forego its nuclear ambitions and could, in fact, fuel them. 制裁法案ではイランとビジネスを行う金融機関を制裁対象にしている。このためTimothy Geithner財務長官が石油価格への 悪影響を懸念し反対を表明していた。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-15997065 Under the new sanctions, drafted by Democrat Robert Menendez and Republican Mark Kirk, foreign banks that do business with Iran's central bank would be cut off from the US financial system. The sanctions are designed to come into effect after a six-month grace period - in order to give oil markets time to factor them in. 米国上院で可決されたイラン制裁法案では、イランの中央銀行と取引を行う外国の銀行はアメリカの金融システムからカット・ オフされる。この法案の発効には6ヶ月の猶予期間が設けられ、石油市場などが影響をおりこむ時間が考慮されている。
コーエン次官は、イラン産原油の主な輸入国として欧州諸国や中国などとともに日本を挙げた上で「特に欧州やアジアの 緊密な同盟国とイラン産原油輸入を減らすために協力したいと考えている」と述べた。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-01/iran-oil-sanctions-set-to-shrink-circle-of-foreign-buyers.html China accounted for 22 percent of Iran’s export volumes in the first half of this year and increased its purchases by 27 percent over the same period of 2010, U.S. data show. The EU, Japan and India bought 18 percent, 14 percent and 13 percent of Iran’s oil, respectively. イランの石油の輸入国は、中国=22%、EU=18%、日本=14%、インド=13%
*DJ US Nov Nonfarm Payrolls +120K; Consensus +125K *DJ US Nov Unemployment Rate 8.6%; Consensus 9.0% *DJ US Nov Average Hourly Earnings -$0.02 To $23.18 *DJ US Nov Private Payrolls +140K *DJ US Nov Manufacturing Payrolls +2K; Svc-Producing +126K *DJ US Nov Government Payrolls -20K; Federal -4K *DJ US Nov Overall Workweek Unch At 34.3 Hours *DJ US Oct Payrolls Revised To +100K From +80K *DJ US Oct Unemployment Left Unrevised At 9.0%
The 0.3% drop in the unemployment rate came as a result of a gain in the number of employed and a substantial decline in the number of unemployed, says Thomas Simons of Jefferies. He adds, "The drop is a bit fishy, but overall the report is encouraging."
With job growth still generally meager, that leaves only one other option why the November unemployment rate slumped in November. The amount of workers dropped 315K from October while the number of people out of the labor force jumped 487K. People dropping out of the work force, either because they're retiring or that they're too discouraged to keep looking for a job, is not the way to healthily cut the unemployment rate. The participation rate also moved back toward a 28-year low, sliding to 64%. ttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/12/02/live-from-new-york-its-jobs-friday-9/
米国労働省の11月雇用統計で、失業率が下がったことを大きく取り上げている一部メディアがあるけれど、この数字は 慎重に見るべきもので、>>189 とか >>150 の論じている点はみのがせません。これをもう少しきちんと纏めた評論 が飴シンクタンクのヘリテージ財団のサイトに掲載されていて ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://blog.heritage.org/2011/12/02/morning-bell-america-needs-more-job-creation/ Morning Bell: America Needs More Job Creation Mike Brownfield December 2, 2011 at 10:26 am(8) アメリカには、より一層の雇用創出が必要だ Mike Brownfield
After months upon months of unemployment stuck at or above 9 percent, the American people may finally see a sliver of relief in today’s jobs report from the Department of Labor. The report suggests the month of November saw 120,000 net new jobs created and the unemployment rate drop to 8.6 percent?driven in part by the 315,000 people who have given up looking for work and were no longer counted as unemployed. That news is cold comfort to the 13.3 million Americans who are still out of work and the 402,000 workers who filed for unemployment last week.
The question is whether this improvement is real and enduring or a fluke. The economy is growing, but there’s little evidence of the real strength the report suggests, and there’s a lot in the report to suggest something’s amiss with the numbers?something likely to be corrected in the next report. For example, is it likely the labor market strengthened as much as the job number suggests at the same time so many people abandoned the workforce? And this is only one of the anomalies in the report. (後略)
One year after a Tunisian fruit vendor set himself on fire in an act of defiance that would ignite protests and unseat long-standing dictatorships, a harsh chill is settling over the Arab world. The peaceful demonstrations in Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen that were supposed to bring democracy have instead given way to bloodshed and chaos, with the forces of tyranny trying to turn back the clock. It is too soon to say that the Arab Spring is gone, never to resurface. But the Arab Winter has clearly arrived. チェニジアで果物の行商人の自殺事件が起こり、長期独裁政権への抗議行動が始まって以来1年になるが、アラブ世界には厳寒 が襲っている。バーレーン、エジプト、リビヤ、シリア、イエメンの抗議行動は民主主義をもたらすと期待されていたが、結果 は流血事件の混乱となり、独裁者の締め付けを呼んでいる。「アラブの春」は終わったというのには早いが、春は表面に現れて さえおらず、アラブの厳寒の冬が到来している。
Brotherhood leaders have learned to mouth a commitment to pluralism and tolerance, but it is unclear that they would act on it when in power. More hard-line Islamists are openly skeptical of democracy, seeing it as a means of gaining power and not as a model for governing. Egyptian salafists, who espouse a more puritanical version of Islam, have also entered the political system and are performing unexpectedly well in the elections; their demands for Islamicizing society are extreme and may push the Brotherhood to pursue a more radical agenda when in power. エジプトのムスリム同胞団はこの数ヶ月、ポピュリズムを上手く取り入れ、(宗教的)寛容性を示すことに成功してきたが 彼らが政権に就けば、同じような政策を実施するかは不明確である。ムスリム同胞団よりハードラインであるイスラミストは 民主主義体制をおおっぴらに批判し、彼らはそれを権力掌握の手段と見るが統治の方法とみなさない。エジプトのサラフィスト というのは厳格なイスラムの信奉者であるが、彼らは(アングラ世界から出て)政治システムに参入し、議会選挙において予想 外に善戦している。彼らは極端な社会のイスラム化を求め、そのためにムスリム同胞団は権力掌握後にはより過激な方向に動く 可能性がある。
“The ugly facts,” wrote former Israeli defense minister Moshe Arens, “are that the two peace treaties that Israel concluded so far ? the one with Egypt and the other with Jordan ? were both signed with dictators: Anwar Sadat and King Hussein.” It is hard to imagine new leaders, who need to play to anti-Israel public opinion, sitting down with their Israeli counterparts to advance peace. イスラエルの前防衛相であるMoshe Arensは「困ったことには、イスラエルのニ大平和条約、つまりエジプトとの条約とヨルダン とのそれは、両者とも独裁者によって署名されたということであり、サダト大統領とフセイン国王である」と書いている。反イ スラエルのポピュリズムの吹き荒れる中で新指導者らがイスラエルとの平和条約順守に向かうとは推測しにくい。
One of the ironies of U.S. support for democratic change is that the autocrats have traditionally been more pro-American than the democrats. Now, forces of the old regimes feel that Washington abandoned them at their most vulnerable time, and Jordan and Saudi Arabia are livid that the United States abruptly dumped Mubarak and question the U.S. commitment to their security. 皮肉なことにアメリカは民主的変化を支持したのだが、従来の独裁政権が親米で、民主化政権はそうではない。今では旧体制側 はアメリカが最も重要な時期に彼らを見捨てたと感じている。ヨルダンやサウジアラビアはアメリカ政府がムバラク大統領を突 然に見捨てたことで、アメリカの彼らへの安全保障上の約束に疑問を抱いている。
The United States may end up with the worst of both worlds: scorned by the forces of democracy because of its ties to dictators, but disdained by dictators ? whose cooperation is vital to U.S. economic and security interests ? for reaching out to democrats. アメリカはそれらアラブ世界の両側の勢力から批判される立場に至るのかも知れない。民主化を求める勢力からはアメリカが 独裁者を支持してきたことで批判され、旧体制側からはアメリカが彼らを見捨てたことで批判される。しかしアメリカの経済 的及び安全保障上の国益のためには旧体制側の協力は不可欠であった(後略) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *そういうアメリカの中途半端な中東政策というのはブレジンスキー一派とチーム・オバマのお花畑集団のなせる技で、国内 のメディアの大絶賛するところで(ry
The big decision for the Brotherhood will be who to align with. The real surprise of the ballot so far is that the hard-liner Salafis have taken about a quarter of the vote, far outpacing both the traditional liberals who have long operated in the shadows of the military state and the more radical forces associated with Tahrir Square. The Brotherhood is a worldly force accustomed to political maneuver and compromise; the Salafis are genuine theocrats.
The Salafis would probably demand clauses in the constitution limiting the rights of women or non-Muslims and would try to legislate morality, which Brotherhood parliamentarians have avoided seeking to do in the past. A Brotherhood-Salafi alliance would draw a line right through Egyptian society and might well turn Tahrir Square into a cockpit of secular-Islamist confrontation.
京都プロトコル延長についての現状、ロイター ----------------------------------------------- ttp://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/finance-questions-raised-in-draft-un-climate-paper China, the world's largest CO2 emitter but not bound by Kyoto's obligations, helped revive the troubled talks by saying it could join a legally binding deal to cut its emissions of the heat-trapping gases. 世界最大のCo2排出国である中国は京都プロトコルに参加していないが法的拘束力のある規制に参加する可能性はあるという
"We do not rule out the possibility of legally binding. It is possible for us, but it depends on the negotiations," Su Wei, China's lead negotiator, said on Friday - speaking in English - at a media briefing on the sidelines of the two-week talks. 中国代表の Su Weiは「法的規制を排除はしないが、それは交渉しだい」という。
The European Union has said it will sign up to a second round of targets under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, but only if all big emitters agree legally binding cuts that will start in 2020. EUは京都プロトコル延長に賛成しているが、条件付きの賛成で、すべての大型のCo2排出国が法的拘束力のある規制条約に合意 する場合のみ、という。
So far, China, India and the United States, the world's top three emitters, are not bound by Kyoto and have refused to commit themselves to legal targets, raising the prospect that no country will have binding targets to cut emissions after 2012. 中国、インド、アメリカという三大Co2排出国は京都プロトコルに参加しておらず、法的拘束力のある規制値設定に反対してい る。こうした状況のために京都プロトコル延長は厳しい状況に直面している。
ttp://www.economist.com/node/21540996 Climate-change talks:Wilted greenery The UN’s latest round of climate-change talks open in Durban. Even avoiding deadlock would be an achievement Dec 3rd 2011 | from the print edition 気候変動国際会議:しおれたグリーン エコノミスト、3日 国連の気候変動国際会議がダーバンで開かれているが、デッドロックを避けることが出来るなら、それさえも成功と呼べる
Recent work by, among others, Michael Greenstone at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology backs that approach. It shows that hot spells kill few people in air-conditioned America; but in India, where 300m have no access to electricity, the death toll is huge. India’s priority is to provide its people with electricity, and one day air-conditioners. That this will increase its emissions is less a problem for India than for the world. It therefore views any suggestion that it should be bound to curb its emissions as a threat. 最近MITのMichael Greenstone の示した例では、発展途上国がCo2排出に法的拘束力のある国際条約に反対する事情を説明 している。エアコンのあるアメリカでは猛暑で人の死ぬことは稀であるが、3億人が電力にアクセス出来ないインドでは 死者は多い。インドにとっての優先順位は国民への電力供給で、更に何時の日にかエアコンを提供できるようにすることで ある。そのためインドにとってはCo2排出増加は世界全体にとってよりも問題が少ない。そのために、インドにとってはCo2 排出の法的規制というのは国の発展にとっての脅威とみなされる。
Some sort of agreement is still possible. Developing countries, including China and India, have suggested they are willing to negotiate a new pact, to be concluded around 2020. This agreement, if it transpires, would be a broader version of the deal agreed in Cancun, including new emissions targets for rich countries and new efficiency targets for developing ones. And China’s target, in particular, could soon start to matter. Though its emissions will not peak for over a decade, China is much better placed than India to slow their growth. Its emissions per head are already higher than those of some European countries.
Yet the snag is the status of this mooted regime. The Europeans envisage a legally binding successor to Kyoto. Developing countries, and America, want a looser arrangement, more akin to that approved in Cancun. To avoid a deadlock in Durban, one side will have to budge. 京都プロトコルに変わる国際的合意を2020年を目標に創り上げようというう動きもあって中国やインドも包含できるものを 目指している。しかし、それであってもアメリカや途上国の警戒は強く(ry
Germany's Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy of France will set out plans for a eurozone rescue package when they meet tomorrow, and the European Central Bank could offer a ?1 trillion (£640bn) cash injection if closer fiscal union is agreed later this week. この会談を受け、今週後半に財政統合に近づく合意ができた場合、ECBは1兆ユーロのキャッシュ(流動性)を投入出来るだろう (後略)
I hope Europe’s leaders are not going to be shy next week. When I said they should be bold I meant BOLD. There’s a bazooka on the table in the form of ECB bond buying or e-bonds (e-bills?) and they need to pick that bazooka up and fire it right into the mouth of this crisis. There is no time left for political bickering. And if they fail to act on the 9th it’s likely that the markets will seize up again and politicians will be forced into emergency action. We’ve essentially reached that “now or never” ttp://seekingalpha.com/article/311629-europe-fiscal-union-or-bust Europe - Fiscal Union Or Bust? シーキングアルファ December 4, 2011
To conclude, I note that adding solar power and wind without massive storage to the mix does next to nothing to remove the need for fossil fuel based energy infrastructure. Scenarios based on wind and solar power are fundamentally reliant on fossil fuels and sooner this is understood the better it is for climate. Currently the mirage of purely unreliables based energy production essentially maintains the use of fossil fuels for as long as the eye can see both for technical and financial reasons.
Four nuclear projects in the early stages of development and an additional resurrected one hardly sounds like a renaissance. But the fallout from Fukushima is far less than expected, and it is clear that the United States will not follow Germany in abandoning nuclear energy. Horrific as the Fukushima meltdown was, it's unlikely to have anywhere near the impact that Three Mile Island had, and nothing like the deadening effects of Chernobyl.
酷い文章。ここで言っている(穏健派の「自由公正党」)というのはムスリム同胞団の Freedom and Justice Party(FJP) (超保守派の「ヌール党」)といっているのはセラフィスト(厳格派イスラミスト)のAl Nur partyのことだけれど、背景 を書かないというのは読者をミスリードするものでしかない。
ムスリム同胞団の政治エンティティであるFJPを「穏健派」とする一部のメディア報道について、英国のディリーメール ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2069856/The-thing-save-Egypt-violent-return-Dark-Age-military.html Until a short time ago, the Muslim Brotherhood was usually described as the Islamist party that had to be kept out of power, but now they are suddenly the "moderates." The Muslim Brotherhood is moderate, when compared with Al Qaeda, Hezbollah, and Hamas which do not shrink from terrorism and armed revolt, but the goal of the MB is the same, to make the principles of Islam "the sole reference point for ordering the life of the Muslim family, individual, community, and the state."
* A possible struggle over the constitution, with the army and some liberals opposing the Brotherhood's desire for a system in which parliament, not the president, has the upper hand. 憲法改正についてムスリム同胞団は議会に主導性を持たせたいが民主化勢力はこれに反対
* Calls from Salafis and others for a constitution that enshrines strict Islamic values and for curbs on interest -bearing loans, alcohol, mixed bathing and cultural life, a deterrent to tourism, a major source of revenue and jobs. セラフィストほかのイスラミスト勢力が憲法改正にイスラムの規範を反映させ、金融やアルコールの制約、性的規範の厳格化 などを行い、国民生活や観光業に影響を与える可能性
* Parliament could also challenge a "national salvation government" which the army has asked 78-year-old economist Kamal al-Ganzouri to head. That could deepen investor worries about a policy vacuum when the economy is in turmoil. 議会制力が救国政権に反対して政策の真空化をまねき経済危機にあるエジプトに悪影響を与える可能性
* Populist policies. The government has raised the minimum wage by about 60 percent and gave staff positions to 450,000 public sector workers, further straining the budget. 政府は最低賃金の60%上昇と45万人の公務員の待遇改善をいっており予算の膨張か危惧される
* Labour unrest. Frequent strikes may multiply, damaging output, raising pressure to hike pay and increasing the costs of business in Egypt. 労働紛争の拡大。ストライキの頻発や賃金上昇がエジプト経済に悪影響を与える可能性
* Credit insurance. The cost of insuring Egypt's debt against default has edged down since the first election round, but remains higher than during the anti-Mubarak revolt. エジプトのCDSは依然高い値
* Any move by the military council to deflect criticism by changing its own make-up. In November, protesters focused their anger on its leader, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, 76, who was Mubarak's defence minister for two decades. 軍事政権の安定性への危惧
* Further attempts by the military to ensure it keeps its privileges and its influence behind the scenes even after a transfer to civilian rule, stoking more street anger. 軍部が既得権益や影響力の維持を図る場合には軍部との軋轢の高まる可能性
WSJの準社説である「レビュー&アウトルック」、金曜日の労働省の雇用統計で失業率が9%を切ったことについて 統計の中身を見れば、これは雇用者増加の反映というより、求職者の大幅減少によるものであるから、この数字を もって雇用状況が大きく改善しているとは言えない、と論じる ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204826704577074702335587464.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_AboveLEFTTop Below 9%:A drop in the jobless rate, but more people flee the labor force. DECEMBER 5, 2011 (失業率が)9%を割ったが:失業率は低下したが、以前よりも多くの人が労働市場から脱している(せいである)
There was a huge 594,000 decline in the number of Americans who are officially unemployed. But the main reason for the big drop in that number and the fall in the jobless rate wasn't more people working, but fewer people looking for work. The labor force declined by 315,000 workers and the labor force participation rate fell to 64% from 64.2% in October. The labor force participation rate has fallen by some two percentage points since early 2009, which means that more than two million Americans have withdrawn from the work force. Normally during a recovery as hiring picks up, Americans get back into the jobs market. 公式の失業者数は59.4万人減少した。しかし、この大きな減少の主たる理由は雇用が増えたのではなく、求職者が減った ためである。労働人口は31.5万人減少し労働参加率は64.2%から64%に下落している。労働参加率は2009年初期に比べて 2%低下している。これは200万人以上のアメリカ国民が労働市場から脱したことを意味する。普通、景気回復過程では雇 用が増大し、アメリカ国民は労働市場に復帰する。
Worker paychecks also aren't growing. The wage rate declined slightly last month, evidence that more low-paying than high-paying jobs are returning. About 50,000 of the new jobs were in retail while employment was up slightly in manufacturing but down in construction. 労働者の賃金は成長しておらず賃金率は先月減少しているが、これはより低賃金の職が高賃金の職よりも回復しているこ とを示す。新規雇用中の5万人は小売セクターで製造業ではわずかに雇用が増加したが建設業では減少している。
All of this points to an economy that is growing, but in fits and starts and at a low trajectory. There are still six million fewer Americans working today than before the financial meltdown, making this by far the worst jobs recovery in modern times. Americans deserve better, and in particular they deserve a Presidential debate focused above all on returning the private economy to the engine of prosperity it was until only a few years ago. これらの事実の示すことは経済は回復過程にあるが低い回復速度の軌道にあるということで金融危機前に比べて依然として 600万人ほどの雇用が回復していない。これは近代の雇用回復過程では最悪のものである。数年前の状況に回復すべく民間 経済が繁栄のエンジンとして機能するために、よりよい政策が議論されるべきであり大統領選のディベートとしてそう有る べきである。 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *これは、一部リベラルメディアが失業率の9%割れを画期的などと脳天気に騒いでいることへの批判で(ry
アメリカの雇用率の推移 (対人口比) (16歳以上) Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey Series Id: LNS12300000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Employment-Population Ratio Labor force status: Employment-population ratio Type of data: Percent or rate Age: 16 years and over
The outcome of the polls may not be welcome to the West, or to many of the young protesters who overthrew Egypt’s ruler of 30 years, but it confirms a trend set by Islamist election wins in post-uprising Tunisia and Morocco in the last two months. “It does have implications for US and Western interests in the region. It’s not going to be business as usual,” said Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center.
“But it’s not a specifically Islamist issue. Arabs don’t like US policy, so the governments they elect will not like US policy. It’s just a new reality in the region.”
Armed with popular legitimacy from Egypt’s freest vote since army officers ousted the king in 1952, the Muslim Brotherhood and ultra-conservative Salafi Islamists look set to dominate parliament once a tortuous voting process winds up in January. ttp://www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon&contentID=20111205113230 Islamists may clip wings of Egypt’s army By Alistair Lyon
Now, while many in Egypt are terrified at the prospect of Salafis in parliament, left-leaning policymakers in Washington, DC, will be arguing that Salafis are harmless, pious, and orthodox Muslims. Wrong. 今や多くのエジプト人はSalafisの議会への台頭を恐れているのだが、アメリカの左翼への傾斜のある政策立案者らはSalafis は無害で敬虔な、オーソドックスなムスリムだという議論をしている。それは誤っている。
(誤っている理由) (1)First, Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri and every other major Islamist terrorist came directly from the Salafist or Wahhabi school of the thought. They are motivated by a Salafi creedal concept named hakimiyyah, the idea that God is ruler and sovereign over man, the ultimate source of government.
(2)Second, while extreme Salafis advocate hakimiyyah, almost all Salafis believe and constantly remind each other of the need to be loyal only to Muslims, and to hate, be suspicious of, not work in alliance with, and ensure only minimal/necessary interaction with non-Muslims
(3)Third, combined with dogged beliefs about the caliphate and the disavowal of non-Muslims comes the Salafi tendency to engage in takfeer, the excommunication of other Muslims. Once a Muslim has been labeled a kafir then Salafis may justify violence against the newly declared apostate. These are not abstract ideas. Takfeer was used to kill Anwar al-Sadat, and Salafi extremists have used takfeer to justify killings in Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and elsewhere.
The above three ideas of literalist sharia as state law (hakimiyyah), manifest hatred of non-Muslims (al-wala wa al-bara), and excommunicating Muslims (takfeer), when underwritten by jihad, leads to violent extremism.
Iran warned the West on Sunday any move to block its oil exports would more than double crude prices with devastating consequences on a fragile global economy. "As soon as such an issue is raised seriously the oil price would soar to above USD250 a barrel," Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said in a newspaper interview.
"No one welcomes the sanctions, we know that sanctions create obstacles, but we want to say we will overcome these obstacles," Mehmanparast told Sharq daily. "Imposing sanctions on oil and gas is among the sanctions that, if one wants to do that, the consequences should be fully considered before taking any action," Mehmanparast said. "I do not think the situation in the world and especially in the West today is prepared enough to raise such such discussions." 「イランの石油やガスの禁輸措置を行うなら、その結果起こることに対して、事前に十分検討すべきである。世界の現状は (石油価格$250といった)特に西欧世界において、そうした結果を考慮していないようだ」 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *バレルあたり$250というのは、ホルムズ海峡が封鎖されればそうなるかも知れない価格で、イランの声明はそういう行為を 匂わす脅迫と言うかブラフと言うか・・・
上記の政治文化、政軍関係がラテンアメリカの特徴ですが、アメリカでは一般国民に対して正規軍が武器を使う、 内乱に対処してきた伝統文化がないという特徴が。それゆえ911以後にはテロや国内の問題に対処するのに Department of Homeland Security、国土安全保障省を新設したとのこと。この正規軍の性質は将来も続く見込みだとか。
Standard & Poor’s has warned Germany and the five other triple A members of the eurozone that they risk having their top-notch ratings downgraded as a result of deepening economic and political turmoil in the single currency bloc. The US rating agency said late on Monday that Germany, France, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland and Luxembourg were all being placed on “creditwatch negative”, indicating there is a 50 per cent chance of a downgrade within 90 days. S&Pは、ドイツ、フランス、オランダ、オーストリー、フィンランド、ルクセンブルグのAAA格付けを持つ各国に対して これらの国を「クレジットウオッチ・ネガティブ」に置き、ユーロ諸国の政治的・経済的混乱が深まる場合には格下げ を行うリスクがあるとした。この措置は一般に、90日以内に格下げが50%の確率で有り得る事を意味する。
With regard to Germany, S&P said it was worried about “the potential impact ... of what we view as deepening political, financial and monetary problems with the European economic and monetary union.” ドイツについてS&Pは「欧州経済と単一通貨に関わる深まりつつ有る政治的、金融的、マネタリ的問題の与える潜在的イ ンパクトを憂慮」するとしている
The agency is acting as eurozone governments make further progress towards a comprehensive deal to contain the region’s sovereign debate crisis ahead of a crucial EU summit on December 9. Berlin and Paris want the eurozone to sign up to tougher fiscal rules to calm investors’ worries. S&P told the six governments it would conclude its review “as soon as possible” after the summit. It told governments: “[I]t is our opinion that the lack of progress the European policymakers have so far made in controlling the spread of the financial crisis may reflect structural weaknesses in the decision-making process within the eurozone and European Union.” S&Pは12月9日の欧州サミットでの危機対応を注目している。S&Pは諸国に対して「我々の意見では危機対処についての欧州の 政策担当当局の進歩のなさが金融危機を拡大させてきた。これはユーロ圏とEUの意思決定に関わる構造的な弱さである」という Governments are concerned that a downgrade will make it harder for the eurozone bail-out fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, to arrange financing in the markets for its rescue packages for Ireland, Portugal and Greece, as it is underpinned by guarantees from the six nations which are rated triple A. Those countries also fret that it could raise their own financing costs. もしAAA各付けをもつ各国の格下げが起こればユーロ圏の救済ファンドであるEFSFが市場でファイナンシングを進めることに 支障を来す恐れがある。(ry
Mr. Einhorn, who is the State Department’s special adviser for nonproliferation and arms control, told a news conference that “the situation in Iran has become more and more worrisome over recent months.” Without a diplomatic solution in the standoff with Iran, Mr. Einhorn said, “pressures will grow for a much stronger kind of action.” イランからの石油輸入の抑制を求めるため韓国を訪問した国務省のアインホーン特別アドバイザー(軍縮及び核非拡散担当) は記者会見で「イランを巡る状況は、この数ヶ月ますます憂慮すべき状況で外交的解決がないなら、より強い(軍事オプシ ョンへの)圧力が増大する」と述べた
Abbas Milani, the director of Iranian studies at Stanford University, said he thought Iran’s Islamic hierarchy may have miscalculated the strong global reaction to the British embassy assault, which most Iran experts have said was done with the explicit approval of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader. Now, Mr. Milani said, the momentum for sanctions aimed at oil, Iran’s critical export, presents a new threat. “They thought they could get away with it, by firing a shot across the bow,” he said. “It turned out to be much more costly.” スタンフォード大学のイラン研究部長、Abbas Milaniは、イラン国内のイスラム指導部がイランで起きた英国大使館襲撃事件 への、グローバルな強いリアクションについて計算違いをしていたとした。襲撃事件は多くの専門家によれば、ハメネイ師の 許可を得て行われた。今や石油禁輸へのモメンタムが生まれていて、「彼ら(イランのイスラム指導部)はこの問題を(停船 を求める場合のように)船首前方への威嚇射撃によって解決できると思っていた」という。「それは、遥かに高いものについ たわけだ」
European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny of Austria, who said in an interview that it “highlights the problem that rating agencies increasingly are assuming a political role.” “There is no doubt that rating agencies have an economically important role to play, but the way in which this is happening at the moment is increasingly problematic as it creates pro-cyclical effects, that means effects that make the crises worse,” Nowotny said yesterday in Vienna.
ドイツ、フランスなどのAAA格付けが剥奪されるなら The outlook change is “disastrous for Europe,” Mark Grant, a managing director at Southwest Securities Inc. in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, said in an interview yesterday on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart” with Lisa Murphy and Adam Johnson. “Every bank now in Europe is also going to be downgraded as the sovereigns are downgraded, many corporations in Europe will be downgraded, the euro is going to come under tremendous pressure worldwide,” Grant said. “There’s just a whole lot of dominoes that are going to fall because of this report.” ttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-06/s-p-jumps-into-politics-again-with-motive-for-cutting-eu-nation-outlooks.html
Several US law firms have launched a class-action lawsuit against Apple and a number of other companies including Samsung and HTC over privacy concerns arising from the data-logging sofware Carrier IQ. 幾つかの法律事務所がCarrier IQ問題で被害者の集団訴訟を、アップル、サムスン、HTC他の会社を対象にして提起した
The companies involved have been accused of “uprecedented breach in the digital privacy rights of 150 million cell phone users” according to the lawsuit, which was filed in a Delaware federal court. デラウェア連邦裁に訴訟を起こした法律事務所は「150万人の携帯電話使用者に対する前代未聞のプライバシー侵害」と言 っている
A number of wireless carriers including AT&T, Spring and T-Mobile have also been implicated for selling and supporting smartphones that included the Carrier IQ software. Apple responded last week to complaints regarding Carrier IQ with a statement that confirmed that elements of the so-called tracking software remain in iOS 5, but will be removed entirely with future updates. 関連するキャリアはAT&T、スプリント、Tモバイルなどで、同様にCarrier IQを含むスマートフォーンを販売したことで事件に 関連があるとされている。アップルは先週、トラッキングソフトウェアの残滓が iOS 5に残るが時期のリリースで完全に除去 されると言っている
A new national poll shows former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with a commanding 21-point lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential race.
Gingrich garners 38 percent support to Romney's 17 percent, according to the Rasmussen Reports poll released Thursday. Gingrich has gained 24 points since Rasmussen's previous national poll, released in early November. Romney has slipped six points from 23 percent.
The Rasmussen poll comes on the heels of several polls showing the former speaker with sizable leads in Iowa, South Carolina and Florida. A Rasmussen Reports poll released Tuesday showed Gingrich creeping up on Romney in the former Massachusetts governor's stronghold of New Hampshire.
ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203833104577072812757977898.html The Comeback Kid of 2012 By PEGGY NOONAN DECEMBER 3, 2011 Having long ago ruled Gingrich out, GOP voters suddenly rule him back in. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ *WSJに掲載されたBy PEGGY NOONANのギングリッチ評論 飴の大統領選というのは予測の(特別に)難しいレースなので、各州の予備選前の状況からはまだマクロ情勢は見えてこない。 先の大統領選挙でも予備選でオバマが頭角をあらわすまで、ヒラリー優勢という見方が殆どであったことを思うと(ry
GIVEN EGYPT'S singular importance to US strategic interests in the Arab world, the Obama administration's response to the calamitous election results has been shocking. Rather than sound the alarm bells, US President Barack Obama has celebrated the results as a victory for "democracy." ・・・ The end result is the same in either case: Under President Obama, the US government has become hostile to Israel's national rights and strategic imperatives. Under Obama, the US is no longer Israel's ally.
ロシアの反政府運動についての初期の評論の一つ、フォーリンポリシー ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/12/06/occupymoscow?page=0,0 #OccupyMoscow BY JULIA IOFFE | DECEMBER 6, 2011 Protesters crying foul, armoured vehicles in the streets -- is this what an election victory looks like in Putin's Russia?
It took until Tuesday afternoon for Putin to concede some "losses." Once again, he blamed them on the economic crisis we haven't heard about since 2009. "In today's conditions," he said, "it's a good result." Then he added something very telling, and vaguely eerie. "You and I know and see what happens not very long ago in countries with far more stable economies and social spheres, where millions of people come out into the streets," he said. If anyone wondered what the Kremlin was planning should that scenario happen in Russia, or why the Kremlin tripled army salaries this year, the events of the last few days -- and the armored vehicles patrolling Moscow's streets -- should be explanation enough.
Gross domestic product contracted 0.04 per cent in the three months ending on September 30 compared with the previous quarter as weakness in the industrial sector spread to Brazil’s once vibrant consumer. “Consumption is really slowing down ? it’s no longer something that people feared might happen, it’s gradually being realised,” said George Lei, an economist with Nomura in New York.
Most important, the South’s defense remains in outside hands. As guarantor of the ROK’s security, the U.S. inevitably will meddle in South Korean affairs. Yet in a crisis, Washington will do what Washington believes to be in its interest, not the South’s interest. Still, just as alcoholics hate to give up liquor, South Koreans are unlikely to give up their defense free ride. But there is no defense justification for preserving Washington’s security commitment to the ROK.
Some Americans have reacted in anger against South Koreans who criticize America. For instance, columnist Dennis Prager called the ROK “the most ungrateful country in the world.” He proposed a South Korean referendum: “The beauty of such a plebiscite is that if a majority of the South Korean people wants American troops out, we have no moral obligation to stay there.”
But Americans have no moral obligation to stay in any case. Washington should deploy troops based on the interest of the U.S., not of other nations. Washington should begin a quick and complete withdrawal of forces from the South.
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) ? Japanese banks could benefit from the vacuum created as their European peers sell off non-core assets in Asia in an effort to shore up their capital needs at home, according to one analyst. The assets are coming up for sale in a period when the Japanese yen USDJPY -0.05% is especially strong, bolstering the buying power of Japan’s financial institutions and offering a “major opportunity,” said Nomura economist Richard Koo. 欧州の金融機関が資本調達のためにアジア諸国で資産を売っているが、この真空状態は円高とマッチして日本の銀行にとって 有利に働く可能性があると野村のリチャード・クーが述べている。
“While it is not unlike scoring a point on an opponent’s error, having Japanese financial institutions assume the overseas operations of European banks that are unable to sustain them would be a major plus for both Japan and the global economy,” Koo said in a research note published Tuesday. クーは「対抗する金融機関のトラブルは自分の得点というわけではないにせよ、日本の金融機関が海外オペレーションを拡大 することは欧州の銀行が自行の継続性確保に苦しむ折から、日本にとってもグローバル経済にとってもプラスになる」という。
Koo saw some evidence that Japanese banks and insurance companies were already being sounded out by European banks seeking to find buyers for equity assets in the region. クーは欧州の銀行の売却する資産を日本の銀行や保険会社が取得する意図のあることを示す証拠があるという。
Japanese banks could even be a stabilizing force in Asia, Koo said, warning of “a major blow to the emerging economies if European institutions were to exit this business without first finding a replacement.” クーに依れば日本の銀行がアジアの安定化に寄与していて「欧州側がアジアの途上国から買い手を見つけることなく撤退 すれば大きな打撃になる」という。(後略)
ユーロの分裂崩壊というのは、UBSに依れば: Talk about fantasy. That’s like asking Wellington to stress test his army against a scenario where Napoleon has a B-52 at Waterloo. You don’t re-position the troops?you retreat as quickly as possible across the channel, if not across the Atlantic. ・・・ But it is very hard to see break-up as a solution. Let’s hope Europe’s politicians and policymakers agree and take action this week to fix what is broken before it all really breaks up.
The province’s deal with Samsung and a consortium of Korean companies, a political controversy since it was announced, resurfaces. The report merely deepens the controversy. As told by the auditor, Korean companies approached the government in June 2008, the same month Mr. Smitherman was appointed Minister of Energy. By December of that year, a memorandum was signed. Mr. Smitherman travelled to Korea in June 2009. Six months later, a $7-billion investment deal was signed to build renewable power plants, equipment-supply plants and extend transmission grid capacity. “Neither the OEB [Ontario Energy Board] nor the OPA [Ontario Power Authority] was consulted about the agreement.”
No economic analysis or business case had been prepared. The Samsung consortium ? already set to receive feed- in-tariff rates for solar and wind power that were above international norms ? also was to get a $437-million bonus if plants were built in Ontario. The AG says the bonus was cut to $110-million after the AG initiated research into the deal.(ry
NYSEで(根拠のない)「G20が欧州危機対策としてIMFに巨額の融資を行う」という噂が流れて株価が高騰したのだけれど この件についてWSJのマーケットビート ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/12/07/heres-why-everythings-rallying-again/?mod=WSJBlog Here’s Why Everything’s Rallying Again…Briefly MARKETBEAT By Mark Gongloff DECEMBER 7, 2011, 3:53 PM ET
The stock market has for the second day in a row gotten a late-day jolt from another rumor out of Europe. The latest “news” is that the G-20 is considering a humongous IMF fund to lend money to Europe. Sounds legit, if by “legit,” you mean “ridiculous.” Regardless, the Dow is up 80 points, the S&P is up about 5 and the Nasdaq is up about 5. The financials, which arguably have the most to gain from a giant magical pile of IMF money, are up 1.4%, leading the market. Health care, a defensive sector, is up 0.8%, the second-best sector in the market, so it’s not all risk-on. The euro is up to $1.342. Not a huge rally, but more life than we’d seen much of the day. The 10-year Treasury note is not having it, yielding 2.03% at last check, near its lowest level of the day.
Update: Never mind! The IMF just denied it had a big magical pile of money! The rally has been canceled until further notice.Except for the financials, which continue to rally unabated, up 1.2% right at the closing bell. Morgan Stanley is up 4.6%, Goldman is up 4%. Gosh darn it all to heck, we almost got the S&P 500 to close above its 200-day moving average. This is the third day in a row it has failed to do that, notes Bespoke. With four you get egg roll. アップデート1:IMFはこの噂を否定した。
Update 2: Hmm, this isn’t the first time the market has rallied on a quickly-denied rumor of a 600-billion-euro bailout fund. But who remembers things that happened nine days ago? アップデート2:IMF絡みの根拠のない噂で市場が高騰というのは9日前にもあったわけだが、あの時もIMFが直ぐに噂を否定し ていたわけだが。
Here, finally, is the Barack Obama many of us thought we had elected in 2008. Since then we've had a president who has only reluctantly stood up to the moneyed interests Teddy Roosevelt and his cousin Franklin stood up to. Hopefully Obama will carry this message through 2012, and gain a mandate to use his second term to take on the growing inequities and game-rigging practices that have been undermining the American economy and American democracy for years.