タイの洪水被害と責任追及について、バンコクポスト(タイのローカル英字紙)の記事 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.bangkokpost.com/blogs/index.php/2011/11/04/drowning-in-prejudice?blog=64 ・・ and by closely following discussions on the social media networks, the criticism is sharply divided along the lines of colour-coded politics. ソーシャルメディア・ネットの議論などを見ると意見が政治的に二分し対立している
Within the red camp, it is widely believed that the high level of water in dams was a political ploy of the Abhisit government to trigger a deluge and undermine the Yingluck administration. In this conspiracy theory, the fingers began pointing much, much higher, which has only served to enrage the yellow camp. タクシン派(レッド派)はダムに多大の貯水がなされてきたのは前のAbhisit政権の政治的行動で、洪水を引き起こしてYingluck政権を窮地に 陥れるためだという。勿論これは陰謀論だが。
Meanwhile, the anti-Thaksin camp is inflamed by the domination of the reds in the despatching of flood relief items donated by the public? only to serve their red constituencies first and foremost. Some Puea Thai members of Parliament faced the same complaint. 反タクシン派はレッド派の寄付や支援物資が自己の政党の支持者を優先して配られているという。議会のPuea Thai党の議員の一部がそういう 主張をしている。
When the conflict over flood management between the Bangkok administration and the Yingluck government became public, my friends and relatives who belong to the red camp and cannot stand the sight of the Bangkok Governor, blamed the Democrat-led Bangkok administration for not pumping out the flood waters into the canals. They also refused to watch Thai PBS TV due to its being too critical of the government. バンコク市政と政府との対立が明らかになると、私の友人でレッド派の人はバンコク市政を非難し市長が市内の洪水をポンプで排水する行動を充分 やっていないという。彼はもはやタイの公共TV(PBS TV)を見ないという。政府避難が激しすぎるからだという。
My friends and relatives on the yellow side, meanwhile, deride every word Yingluck utters and even call her names. They believe that the irrigation officials cannot do their jobs because of intervention from the politicians who want to keep their red zones dry. 私の友人でイエロー派支持の人は事あるたびにYingluck首相を非難し灌漑局はレッド派の政治家が干渉して彼らの望むレッド地域を洪水から守るた めに介入したのでまともな仕事が出来なかったという。(後略)
これもバンコク・ポストの評論で、タクシン妹首相は(ストレスで泣き出したりして)任に耐えないので変えるべきと論じている ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/264470/from-venice-of-the-east-to-waterworld Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has been proven sorely lacking in this tragic, awesome test of her ability and leadership. If her Puea Thai Party wants to continue as the government, it must embrace what is truly the government's role _ of protecting the people, and abandon its own selfish self-interest. To speak plainly, I point to Ms Yingluck's brother, Thaksin Shinawatra, who five years after the coup, remains as eager as ever to clear his name and return to his homeland. But Thaksin, the survival of your person and your family is not the role of government. What greater good is served if your family name prospers while Thailand lies in ruin? タクシン前首相は依然として帰国を望み名誉回復を望んでいるが、そういうことは政府の仕事ではなく現状の混乱を解決することが仕事だ
This government, led by Pheu Thai, must find a new leader. Now. One who is capable of making the difficult decisions so that our country survives. The country has muddled on for years in political disarray, with little impact on the grand scheme of history. But today, as Thailand muddles through a crisis of biblical proportions, decisions must be made. 我が国の存続のため与党は困難でも首相を交代させるべきである。タイは歴史的な災害の渦中なので与党は決断すべきだ
Ms Yingluck earlier this week all but broke down in tears while discussing the stress and strain of the crisis. As we have all. But she is our prime minister, the one tasked with leading the country out of this crisis. Stress and strain are part of her job description. Yingluck首相は今週初めにストレスと緊張から泣き出した事があるが、彼女は首相なのであるから、ストレスや緊張は仕事のうちと知るべきである
Among the findings of the USA TODAY/Gallup Swing States Poll: ギャラップ/USAトディのスイング州世論調査の結果を要約すれば以下のとおり
? By nearly 4 to 1, those surveyed aren't satisfied with the way things are going in the United States. That could signal trouble for incumbents in general and the president in particular as voters increasingly hold him responsible for the country's economic troubles. 国民は4:1の比率で現状のアメリカの進む方向に満足していない。これは現職大統領にとって不利な状況で、国民は経済の低迷を政権の 責任としている
? By 60% to 37%, those in swing states say they and their families aren't better off than they were three years ago ? a version of the question Republican challenger Ronald Reagan posed to devastating effect against Democratic President Jimmy Carter in 1980. スイング州の有権者は60%:37%の比率で3年前より状況が悪くなったと答えている。レーガンがカーターを破った状況に似ている
Residents in swing states are more likely than those elsewhere to say their families' lives have taken a negative turn. Americans in other states also are dispirited, but not to the same degree: 44% say they're better off; 54% say they aren't. スイング州住民は他の州の住民に比べて3年前よりも状況が悪くなったとする人が多い。アメリカ全体の平均は54%:44%である
? By more than 2 to 1, Republicans in swing states are more likely than Democrats to say they are "extremely enthusiastic" about voting for president next year ? an important test of whether supporters will be willing to volunteer their time, contribute money and vote. 2:1の比率でスイング州の共和党支持者は民主党支持者に比べて「選挙について大変熱心」である。この関心や熱意の高さは選挙支援の ボランティア活動や献金に影響する
The enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats and the intense opposition to Obama among Republicans loom as major challenges for the president. この民主党と共和党の間の「選挙への熱心さのギャップ」に加えて共和党のオバマ大統領への強い拒否感が大統領にとってチャレンジとなる
"The intensity of that job-approval rating … really changes the composition of who actually votes in this election," Romney pollster Neil Newhouse said Wednesday at a breakfast with reporters hosted by The Christian Science Monitor. "The energy behind conservatives, behind the anti-Obama sentiment ? that changes the calculus in some of these individual states." He predicts that disappointment with Obama's presidency will make it harder for Democrats to generate high turnout among young people, Hispanics and others whose support fueled his 2008 victory. ロムニー陣営の世論調査(&分析)担当のNeil Newhouseは「大統領支持率や選挙への関心は・・・来年の大統領選挙に実際に誰が投票するのか という構成を変えるだろう」という。「アンチ・オバマ大統領のセンチメント、保守派の背後にあるエネルギーというのは個々の州の選挙状況 を変えるだろう」彼は大統領への失望から(2008年のような)若年層やヒスパニックの投票者を民主党が多量に集めるといったことが難しくな ったと予測している。(後略)
The presidential election is now one year away, and President Obama currently does less well in the minds of swing-state voters than a generic Republican candidate on the issues of unemployment and the federal budget deficit. Given that the economy in general and jobs in particular are the most important issues on Americans' minds, this represents a challenge for the president's re-election campaign. Obama's advisers are well aware of these facts, of course, and the president has been focusing on jobs and his proposed Jobs Act in almost every campaign speech he has delivered in recent months.
NYC市長のブルームバーグが先にラジオ放送の中で「ウオール街を占拠せよ」運動のテント村(Zuccotti公園)のレイプ事件に憤慨して いたけれど、この事件の犯人が逮捕された模様。 Kitchen worker Tonye Iketubosin, 26, was arrested Wednesday for allegedly groping an 18-year-old woman after offering to help set up her tent. He is also a suspect in a rape at the park. ttp://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/manhattan/zuccotti_park_big_top_ilBy4VfYIwDGt2I1rM33vL
<OWSの女性専用テント>
こうした事件が問題視される中で、「ウオール街を占拠せよ」運動は「女性専用テント」とかそういう防止策をはじめているという Zuccotti protesters put up women-only tent to prevent sexual assaults The safety measure comes amid a terrifying spree of sexual assaults -- including an alleged rape -- in the Zuccotti Park camp.
<メディアのダブル・スタンダード>
ただし飴のリベラル系メディアは「ウオール街を占拠せよ」運動に好意的で、こうした事件を積極的に報道しない。保守系のホットエアー は法律厳守で礼儀正しいティパーティの抗議行動をさんざんネガティブに報道してきたメディアが、またもや露骨なダブルスタンダードを やっているという This can’t be repeated enough: With a few exceptions, foremost among them the New York Post, the coverage of OWS protests compared to the coverage of tea-party protests is the worst media double standard in recent history. Nothing compares, because nothing else involves this much distortion on both ends of the coverage. ttp://hotair.com/archives/2011/11/05/good-news-ows-sets-up-women-only-tent-to-help-cut-down-on-rapes/
FORT COLLINS, Colo. -- Police have arrested an Occupy Fort Collins protester in connection with a $10 million arson fire that damaged dozens of condominiums and businesses in Fort Collins. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.punditpress.com/2011/11/fear-of-violence-spreading-to-occupy.html Fear of Violence Spreading to Occupy Seattle Posted by Thomas Ferdousi at 4:15 PM 「シアトルを占拠せよ」抗議行動の暴力的傾向に恐怖が広がる
With violence breaking out among members of Occupy Oakland and Denver, there is a growing concern that the movement may break out into mob storms. With the protesters losing members and even positive press coverage, there is a further concern of outright attacks beginning. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *国内でも、こういう事件は報道されにくい傾向があるけれど、おQパイ運動の暴徒化のために、それに幻滅する参加者もでてきていて メディアのおQぱい絶賛報道の熱狂も低下傾向だという
Yes, in the sense that “democracy” is a mob contemptuous of Western civilization, without respect for private property, ignorant of the Anglo-American Rule of Law tradition, and worked into a fevered frenzy by ritualistic incantations of radical-egalitarian concepts of “social justice” ? well, indeed, this is what democracy looks like. ttp://theothermccain.com/2011/11/05/occupydc-what-democracy-looks-like/
EUの官僚や首脳たちはギリシャやイタリアをまともに指導できないだけでなくIMFの救済を願うという始末であるらしいが Quite why the eurozone, which has a trade surplus across its entirety, felt it had a right to ask the IMF for money to prop up its spendthrift members is another matter. 全体としては貿易黒字をもつEUがIMFにお金をねだる権利があるのかという疑問も
By clinging to a single currency policy which ? as this paper has argued for 20 years ? was hopelessly flawed from the outset, Europe’s political class is now damaging the global economy itself. 20年間議論されてきた単一共通通貨ユーロのもつ問題が露呈した今、ヨーロッパのポリティカル・クラスは世界経済を震撼させようとしている
In the past four days, more than 75,000 Britons have signed an e-petition on the Downing Street website calling for drastic action to restore some sanity to our immigration system. Not that our political masters will take any notice. Whether it is immigration or the EU, the gap between the people and the ruling classes widens by the day. 一方英国では首相官邸あての移民政策のドラスチックな修正を求める電子的呼びかけに75000人が賛同したが、政治指導者らはEUであれ移民問題 であれ、今日、被統治者とのギャップを広げるばかりだ
Occupy Wall Street and the movement's brethren in other cities ranging from Chicago, to Baltimore, to Oakland, to London -- has been getting all the press lately. But it's the Tea Party movement and its small-government ideology that continues to win elections. Is that a harbinger for 2012? Probably. ウオール街を占拠せよ運動の波及がシカゴからボルチモアまで、オークランドからロンドンまで広がってメディアの注目を集めている。しかし 有権者の支持を得て選挙で勝利を続けているのはティーパーティの小さな政府のイデオロギーである。2012年選挙も、おそらく同じであろう。
There's no doubt that the Occupy folks have been getting the lion's share of the ink, and the pixels, over the last month or so. Love them or hate them, their approach is mediagenic, reminding Baby Boomers of protests from their lost (or imagined) youths, and inspiring younger folks who missed the Sixties to take a shot at creating their own protest mythology. メディア上でウオール街を占拠せよ運動が圧倒的な注目を集めていることは事実であるが、彼らを好ましく思うにせよ憎むにせよ、彼らの手法は メディア(のアピール)中心主義である。べビ−・ブーマー世代の失われた(或いは仮想的な)青春と、60年代の彼らの創り上げた抵抗運動を 失った人たちの事を思い出させる。 (略) As I wrote back in 2010, "Rallies without follow-through are just rallies. And the Tea Party movement is now following through with the grunt work of politics: Organizing precincts, waging primary battles, registering voters, and compiling mailing lists." Rallies don't win elections. Neither do drum circles. Organizing does. Let Occupiers and Tea Partiers alike take note. 私は2010年にティーパーティ運動について評論を書き「デモ行動がそれに続く(政治)行動を伴わないなら単なるデモ行動に終わる」と述べた。 そしてティーパーティ運動は抗議行動の後に(現実的な)政治活動を始めた:選挙区ごとの組織をつくり、政党の地方集会で支持する候補者を 応援し、有権者に選挙登録をさせ、メーリングリストをまとめ上げた。デモ行進では選挙に勝利できない。大騒ぎを各地に拡散しても同じである。 組織が選挙の勝利を導く。ウオール街を占拠せよの人もティーパーティの人も、この点を留意すべきだ。
11月6日(ブルームバーグ):ギリシャの連立政権の首相にパパデモス前欧州中央銀行(ECB)副総裁が就任する、と同国紙トビマ紙が 伝えた。特定の人物は引用していない。同紙によると、パパンドレウ首相と最大野党・新民主主義党(ND)のサマラス党首がパパデモス 氏の次期首相就任で合意する。副首相にはベニゼロス財務相とディマス元欧州委員が起用されるという。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ *最大野党と与党の大連立合意ができる予定らすい・・・ ttp://m.smh.com.au/business/world-business/greece-brokers-deal-for-unity-government-20111107-1n2fp.html Greece brokers deal for unity government November 07, 2011
Greek politicians have brokered a deal to form a unity government in a last-ditch effort to avoid political and economic deadlock. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou and Antonis Samaras, the leader of the main opposition party, agreed to form a government of national unity that will make decisions about the country's economy and then hold elections. But Papandreou, who has been at the forefront of efforts to keep Greece from defaulting on its massive public debts, won't lead the new government, according to the statement handed to reporters in Athens today. President Karolos Papoulias will hold a meeting of political party leaders tomorrow. Papandreou and Samaras will meet to decide on the new premier tomorrow as well, according to the statement.
月曜日に、欧州財相会議があってギリシャ問題はその焦点。EUはギリシャの与野党が大連立政権を作り、パッケージ受け入れで完全に合意する ことを救済実施の条件といっている FT記事から -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7c455fc4-087f-11e1-bc4d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1cxhoFctX “We’re all waiting for Papandreou to go because that is what will happen,” said one European official earlier. But patience is running thin and Greek ministers will be given a frosty reception at the eurogroup meeting unless significant progress is made towards resolving the political chaos in Athens, a prerequisite to the disbursement of an ?8bn tranche of the bail-out that is already a month overdue.
Olli Rehn, European Union commissioner for economic affairs, urged Greece to swiftly set up a government. “Work has been going on in Athens to mend that confidence and we need a convincing report on this by finance minister Venizelos [today] in the eurogroup.” Outlining the stakes for Greece in unusually stark terms, Mr Rehn made clear that any new government would need to clearly demonstrate that it had broad political backing for both the new bail-out programme and the debt reduction scheme in order for the EU to release rescue loans.
英国のエコノミスト、Gavyn Davies EUがG20諸国に 「救済資金」を求めるというのは筋が通らないと論じて ttp://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2011/11/06/the-eurozone-decouples-from-the-world/#axzz1cy6VB8pG There never was much reason to expect the G20 to come to the rescue of the eurozone. Certainly, there are no grounds in terms of equity why such an extraordinarily rich and economically successful region should be “rescued” by poorer nations. Furthermore, the eurozone has a small surplus on the current account of its balance of payments and a manageable public debt position, so it really has no need for outside capital. The problem is one of the distribution of funds within the eurozone, which admittedly has proven very difficult to solve. G20に救済資金を期待すべき理由は無くて、EUは豊かでEU全体としての国際収支も黒字であり公的負債は管理可能であるから外部資金によらず EU内部資金で問題可決可能である。問題はEU内部での資金配分であり、それが合意困難というだけである
EUのなすべきことは二つで、たいへん明確である The eurozone is often accused of lacking a strategic plan, but that is not true. It does have a plan, and a very clear one. The plan, which has been imposed by the creditor nations led by Germany, requires the debtor nations to take two major actions, both of which will be beneficial in the long term. First, they need to balance their budgets on the timetable agreed in recent summits. Second they need to introduce major reforms to their economic structure, notably involving labour market flexibility and privatisation. In exchange for these reforms, the creditor nations and the ECB are willing to provide short term liquidity injections to prevent sovereign bankruptcies. The question is not whether this plan exists, but whether it can work. EUのなすべきことは(1)諸国の予算のバランス化を合意されたタイムテーブルで実現、(2)経済改革の実現、特に労働市場の自由化と民営化 の推進、債権者諸国とECBの流動性供給による破産の回避・・
The reason why the eurozone strategy is so difficult to implement is that both of its required actions are likely to make the European recession worse in the immediate future ・・・ Is there any way of improving the chances of success for the eurozone’s chosen strategy? Theoretically, yes. Germany, as the main creditor nation could choose to grow faster, and accept higher domestic inflation for a while, in order to ease the process of adjustment. In practice, Germany shows no sign of accepting this, but it is the best solution available, not only for the debtor economies, but also for Germany itself.
Greece’s political turmoil, which raised the prospect of one or more countries exiting the euro, may undermine the creditworthiness of all but the strongest European economies, Moody’s Investors Service wrote in its weekly credit outlook.
“Greece’s demonstration of a stressed sovereign acting in defiance of other euro area member states revives the spectre not simply of potential defaults beyond Greece, but of a member country withdrawing from the monetary union or having its status and privileges curtailed,” Moody’s said.
6:35a Europe stocks bounce on Berlusconi speculation 6:34a Euro lifted by talk Berlusconi weighs resignation 6:29a Italy's PM Berlusconi could resign Monday: Reuters
不出来で不人気の政治家(パパン、べるちゃん、・・)を追放して「テクノクラート」政権を作れば危機解消が進むとする 一部の論調を批判して、FTアルファビレ。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The odd one out is the Groupe de Francfort.
The other three are all examples of “bottom-up” technocracy, or governments shoving aside their domestic electoral concerns (or trying to ignore them) to send in “experts”. Argentina offers an extreme, but abject, lesson that technocracy does not work if the policies in question are already out of touch with economic reality.
Actually it makes things worse. A brittle coalition government, without a real electoral mandate, can’t signal to the IMF or ECB or whoever that domestic credibility is being lost, and austerity plans may need to be modified, surely. This is about credibility and feedback. (Seriously, ask a political scientist about two-level games.) Wasn’t this the whole problem in Greece in the first place? Why is Italy, the great home of patronage politics since World War Two, going to be much different?
But it is of course the Frankfurt Group that is the exception. It’s a “top-down” technocracy through and through, by design. However the exceptional thing here is that the Frankfurt Group’s plans for a fresh bailout “bazooka” have already been taken hostage by technocrats themselves, ironically. German technocrats. The ECB doesn’t want to monetise Italian bonds, and more specifically, the Bundesbank will not commit its reserves to backing up the EFSF.
As European growth estimates are reduced, there will be pressure for more austerity to ensure reaching fiscal targets. This has been seen in France most recently, where next year’s forecast has been cut to 1% and the government is drawing up plans for an estimated 6 bln euros in new savings. Euro zone countries are seeking to reduce budget deficits to 3% of GDP in 2013. Europe needs to break the trap of pro-cyclical fiscal policy or it risks triggering a dangerous spiral. Perhaps, like the Mets’ home run fences, the targets should be relaxed.
- If the government does not get a majority tomorrow, it may call a confidence vote. If it then loses the confidence vote, Mr Berlusconi will need to convene with the President, Giorgio Napolitano, on the next steps. It would then be up to President Napolitano to dissolve parliament, if he judges that the government is not backed by a majority, and form an interim government. ベルルスコーニは議会の不信任投票に挑戦される可能性があり、議会でそれを防げない場合、不信任になる可能性もある。その場合ナポリターノ 大統領が議会と協議して、大統領の判断次第で政府が過半数支配を維持できない場合には暫定政権を樹立することになる。
- However, even if the government survives tomorrow’s vote, Mr Berlusconi will likely meet with President Napolitano to discuss the next steps, give the fragility of the political situation at this stage. Mr Berlusconi will likely reiterate his unwillingness to step down and his wish to continue to govern, but at this stage he will probably support early elections once the Stability Law (the 2012 budget law) is approved. 首相が不信任案を乗り切った場合にも現状の不安定性から大統領と協議して次のステップを決めることになりそうで、首相は地位に留まることを 望むであろうが、予算案の通過を待ったあと早期の選挙に向かうものと思える
And what should happen: We believe that at this stage the only possibility is to form a new unity government headed by a “super-partes” personality, who should be able to give credibility back to Italy and press ahead with reforms. A technical government, headed by Mario Monti, looks the main possibility. Mr Monti would be highly supported by both the main oppositions parties, UdC and PD, and likely by many of Mr. Berlusconi’s Popolo delle Liberta’ MPs (who would support him only once the Berlusconi government had collapsed). A technical government headed by Mr Monti and supported by a large majority would be a positive step forward, in our view. 我々は現状においてイタリアを代表できるような権威、“super-partes”のもとに挙国一致政権を樹立する事が唯一の解決策と思う。Mario Monti を首班とする(大)連立の暫定政権が望ましいと思う。
Italian 10-year bond yields rose to euro-era highs of 6.68 per cent at one point, well into territory considered unsustainable by the markets. Traders warned that without ECB intervention, the Italian bond markets would have seen leaps in yields that forced Ireland and Portugal to accept emergency bail-outs. 10年国債のイールドは6.68%というサスティナブルではないと市場のみなすところに至った
Traders noted the big rise in Italian yield spreads, which leapt to 491 basis points over German Bunds at one stage. They were also trading about 420bp over a basket of triple A rated countries. Markets consider that this is close to the area that will trigger additional margin payments on the trading of Italian bonds. Olli Rehn, EU economic and monetary affairs commissioner, urged Italy to stick to its target of implementing its budget deficit by 2013 and to carry out long delayed reforms to boost growth and job creation. EU experts are to visit Rome this week to monitor its progress, followed by an IMF delegation next week.
His instinct for political survival kept him away from divisive structural changes. He sang the song of optimism, praising the country's resilience during the crisis. He was content with the attempts of his treasury minister, Giulio Tremonti, to contain the deficit without actually doing anything to shrink the state's presence in the economy.
This instinct for survival served Mr. Berlusconi well?in the short term. In the long term, it may prove suicidal. Continuously postponing fundamental reforms has created a situation in which Italy is not considered credible by international investors and growth will be sluggish for many years to come. As Enoch Powell famously remarked, all political careers end in disgrace. Mr. Berlusconi may set a new standard. May il Cavaliere's successor have a little less of his instinct for survival. ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204554204577023633158375326.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEFTTopBucket How Berlusconi Survived This Long Forget his love life. Il Cavaliere's true sin is his lack of resolve. By ALBERTO MINGARDI
ttp://www.gallup.com/poll/150611/Democrats-Liberal-Less-White-2008.aspx November 7, 2011 Democrats More Liberal, Less White Than in 2008 Party generally looks demographically similar to 2008 by Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, and Lydia Saad ギャラップ世論調査:民主党支持者は2008年に比べて白人の比率がっ減って非白人の比率が増加し、リベラル傾向はより強まっている
これは今日のFTにある、過激な評論。制度設計を誤った現行のユーロを、何が何でも死守するというのは誤りであるという. まあこれには議論のための議論というふいんきもあるのだけれど ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9542474a-0937-11e1-a20c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1cxhoFctX Saving the euro is the wrong goal By Gideon Rachman November 7, 2011 8:57 pm ユーロを救おうとする事は誤ったゴール設定である By Gideon Rachman FT、7日
A new Italian government with a credible economic programme might just buy Europe some time. But given the euro’s design flaws, the respite is likely to be brief. イタリアに信頼に足る経済政策を持つ新政権が生まれるなら、ユーロは暫くの時間を稼ぐことが出来ようが、ユーロの持つ制度設計の欠陥 からみて、その(延命の)時間は長くはないだろう
Some argue the destruction of the single currency will destroy the EU itself. But such alarmism risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. Key European achievements such as the single market, border-free travel and co-operation on foreign policy preceded the single currency and they can survive its demise. Rather than insisting that the break-up of the euro is unthinkable, Europe’s leaders need to start planning for it. 一部の論者はユーロの破壊がEUそれ自体の破壊につながるという。しかしそういう具合に、ことさらに危機を騒ぎ立てるやり方は危機を招くもの である。ヨーロッパの達成した単一市場、国境なき移動、外交政策の協調行動などは単一共通通貨よりも重要であるし、単一通貨なしでも生き続 ける事ができる。ユーロのブレークアップは考えることができないと主張するよりも、ヨーロッパの指導者はユーロの解体について計画すべきで ある。
Fake electronic parts often are produced in China by burning raw material off old circuit boards, washing the components in sometimes -polluted rivers and drying them on city sidewalks, Senate investigators said. They said the resulting parts are unreliable over the long term, even if they pass initial factory testing by manufacturers.
“We can’t tolerate the risk of a ballistic missile interceptor failing to hit its target, a helicopter pilot unable to fire his missiles or any other mission failure because of a counterfeit part,” said Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), the ranking Republican on the Armed Services Committee. 上院軍事委員会でマケイン議員は「偽造部品のせいで、ミサイル・インターセプター・システムが目標を攻撃できないとかヘリコプターのパイロット がミサイルを発射できないとか、そう言うミッションが失敗するというようなことは容認できない」
Counterfeit electronics parts are a well-known scourge of the military supply chain, and China a well-known source. A 2010 study by the Commerce Department said that China was nearly five times more likely than any other country to be identified as the source of suspected counterfeit goods by manufacturers, distributors and others involved in the supply of weaponry to the Defense Department.
The recycled materials used in those parts are often sold overseas through a complex web of suppliers, contractors and subcontractors. And the use of counterfeit parts, Senate staffers said, has at times resulted in millions of dollars in waste, with U.S. taxpayers footing the bill when contractors discover the need for replacements.
“He suddenly reached over and put his hand on my leg under my skirt and reached for my genitals,” said Bialek, a Chicago native who worked for the foundation for roughly six months in 1997, according to the Restaurant Association.“He also grabbed my head and pushed it toward his crotch.”
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's key coalition partner has urged him to step aside ahead of a crucial budget vote. Northern League leader Umberto Bossi is a volatile ally who brought down Mr Berlusconi's first government in 1994. Mr Berlusconi's majority has crumbled ahead of the vote, with several MPs defecting or saying they will rebel. Until now he has insisted he has enough support to be able to continue to govern and has denied he will resign. While Italy's deficit is relatively low, investors are concerned that the combination of Italy's low growth rate and 1.9tn euro (£1.63tn; $2.6tn) debt could make it the next country to fall in the eurozone debt crisis.
"We asked the prime minister to stand aside," Mr Bossi told reporters on the margins of parliament, adding that the former justice minister and personal protege of Mr Berlusconi, Angelino Alfano, should take over. One of Berlusconi's closest allies, MP Francesco Cicchitto, told reporters that leaders of the coalition would wait to see the result of the vote. "One thing at a time. First the vote, let's let it happen. Then we'll reflect on the vote," Mr Cicchitto said. Mr Berlusconi spent the morning attempting to shore up his support with those MPs who had threatened to abandon him ahead of the vote, which has now been delayed until 16:00 GMT.
The BBC's Alan Johnston, in Rome, says it is certainly worth remembering that Mr Berlusconi is a master deal-maker and political infighter, having survived more than 50 confidence motions in the past. But this crisis is different as it goes beyond Italian politics: it is instead linked to the international money markets, which have lost faith in Mr Berlusconi's ability to fix the Italian economy, our correspondent says.
ヨーロッパのソブリン負債危機について、金融経済から離れた立場で歴史的なパースペクティブでSTRATFORのGeorge Friedmanの書いている もので、ちょっと面白い。 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/11/08/europes_nationalism_problem_99752.html Europe's Nationalism Problem By George Friedman November 8, 2011 ヨーロッパのナショナリズムという問題 By George Friedman STTRATFOR
In the context of the ongoing European financial crisis, the issue is not simply whether the euro survives or whether Brussels regulators oversee aspects of the Italian economy. The fundamental issue is whether the core concepts of the European Union remain intact. It is obvious that the European Union that existed in 2007 is not the one that exists today. Its formal structure appears the same, but it does not function the same. ヨーロッパの金融危機というのは、ユーロが存続可能かどうかとか、ブリュッセルのEU官僚がイタリア経済を監督できるかといったことに留まら ない問題を含んでいて、根本的なイシューというのはEUというコア概念が傷を受けずに存続できるかどうかということである。2007年当時のEUと 現在のEUは同じではなくて、その公的構造は同じであっても、機能し得るのかという点では異なる。
The issues confronting it are radically different. Moreover, relations among the EU nations have a completely different dynamic. The question of what the European Union might become has been replaced by the question of whether it can survive. Some think of this as a temporary aberration. We see it as a permanent change in Europe, one with global consequences. EUの取り組む問題が2007年当時とはラディカルに異なっている。それに加えてEU加盟国間の関係が完全に異なったダイナミズムを持っている。 EUがどうなるのかという問題はEUが生き残れるのかという問題に取って代わられた。この変化を一時的な雪崩と見るひともいるが、我々はこれ がヨーロッパに起こった恒久的な変化であると見る。それはグローバルな影響力を持つ問題につながる。
The Yugoslav wars after the collapse of Communism comprised the sum of Europe's fears. But there could be no question of simply abolishing nationalism in Europe. 共産党政権の崩壊後ユーゴスラビアに起こった内戦と分裂はヨーロッパの恐怖を代表する。ヨーロッパがナショナリズムを単に廃棄するという ことに疑問の余地はないが。
National identity was as deeply embedded in Europe as elsewhere, and historical differences were compounded by historical resentments, particularly those aimed toward Germany. The real solution to European wars was the creation of a European nation, but that was simply impossible. ヨーロッパにおいても他の地域と同じく国家のアイデンティティは深く根をはっていて歴史的な諸国の相違は歴史的な恨みと渾然一体である。 特にドイツに対するものがそれである。ヨーロッパの真の解決策は(統一)ヨーロッパ国家であるが、これは単純に不可能である。
Perhaps, over time, this would see a decline of particular nationalisms in favor of a European identity. This assumed that prosperity would cause national identity and tensions to subside. If that were true, then it would work. But there is more to Europe politically speaking than an enhanced trading area, and the economics of Europe are hardly homogeneous. おそらくは時間をかけることにより、ヨーロッパ諸国のナショナリズムは減衰してヨーロッパというアイデンティティに代わってゆくのかも知 れない。このシナリオは繁栄が続き国家のアイデンティや緊張がなくなってゆくことを前提としている。そういうことが可能であれば、これは 機能するシナリオである。しかしヨーロッパにおいても通商地域の拡大よりも大きな政治的な関心がある。またヨーロッパ諸国の経済というの は全くホモジニアスではない。
For the Germans, the Greeks created a sovereign debt crisis. For the Greeks, the sovereign debt crisis was the result of German-dictated trade and monetary rules. The Germans were bitter that they would have to bail out the Greeks. The Greeks were bitter that they would have to suffer austerity. From the German point of view, the Greeks lied when they borrowed money. From the Greek point of view, if they lied it was with the conscious collaboration of German and other bankers who made money from making loans regardless of whether they were repaid.
The endless litany is not the point. The point is that these are two sovereign nations with fundamentally different interests; ・・・ Europe will spend the next generation sorting through this. Whether it can do so remains to be seen - though I doubt it.
Mr. Berlusconi's lieutenants, however, say the premier is likely to push for early elections, a move that could plunge the country into months of uncertainty as Italy's fractious political parties prepare to face voters. "We are not convinced of a national unity government. We're more in favor of early elections," Education Minister Mariastella Gelmini said in a phone interview. ベルルスコーニの与党の教育相、 Mariastella Gelmini は首相が早期の選挙を行うと示唆している。そうなればイタリア政治が数ヶ月の不確定性に 直面する可能性もある、「我々は挙国一致政権には興味はなく、早期の選挙に興味がある」と電話インタビューに答えている。
ATHENS?Greece's Socialist Prime Minister George Papandreou asked his ministers to prepare their resignation letters Tuesday and was expected to name former European Central Bank Vice President Lucas Papademos as prime minister of an interim government, barring any hitches.
Government spokesman Elias Mossialos said he expected the ruling Socialists and their conservative rival, New Democracy, to make an announcement soon, adding that talks on the new government were still under way. He also said Mr. Papandreou asked his cabinet ministers to be ready to make way for the new government.
ベルルスコーニ首相、今後の政局について(WSJ実況ブログから) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/11/08/live-blog-italy-in-focus/ "After the vote on the 2012 budget bill, I'll hand in my resignation and allow the head of state to start consultations and decide over the future; but [the final decision] it's not up to me," Berlusconi said in a phone conversation with Mediaset SpA's newscast TG5. "I see early elections as the only option. The parliament is paralyzed."
ギリシャのgdgdで、独仏はじめ欧州首脳がぶち切れて「ユーロやEUからの離脱もあり得る」と言い出したあたりから、急速にユーロ圏の 分裂論と言うか、如何にして家庭内紛争を収めることができるのか?という議論が増えてきたようで、これはFTのマーチンウルフ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1299d48c-0a01-11e1-85ca-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1cxhoFctX Thinking through the unthinkable By Martin Wolf November 8, 2011 8:33 pm 今まで考えられなかったことを考える時 By Martin Wolf
Will the eurozone survive? The leaders of France and Germany have now raised this question, for the case of Greece. If policymakers had understood two decades ago what they know now, they would never have launched the single currency. Only fear of the consequences of a break-up is now keeping it together. The question is whether that will be enough. I suspect the answer is, no. ユーロ圏は生き残れるか? ユーロ圏の分裂に対する恐怖のみが、今やユーロ圏を支えている。問題は、それは充分であるのか?ということで 私は答えがNO(=それだけでは不十分で、新たな対策がなければ生き残れない)ではないかと思う。
If the eurozone has decided that it must avoid that threat, then it must go back to the first on the menu of options laid out by Mr Roubini. Potentially solvent countries would be financed and the eurozone would grow its way out of the crisis.
A eurozone built on one-sided deflationary adjustment will fail. That seems certain. If the leaders of the eurozone insist on that policy, they will have to accept the result.
飴のチャイナ・ウオッチャーの一人で冷静観察と嗅覚には定評のある(=煽り屋ではない)MINXIN PEIの書いているもの。 中国共産党の最近言い出している文化強化(6中全会の「文化体制改革の深化と社会主義文化発展・繁栄に関する決定」) に対する手厳しい批判 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204554204577025574202543192.html China's Cultural Devolution The Communist Party rules by emptying minds and filling bellies. By MINXIN PEI NOVEMBER 8, 2011, 11:39 A.M. ET 中国の文化退化:共産党は空っぽのマインドとお腹を満たすことで統治する By MINXIN PEI
High inflation, falling exports, mounting local government debt, cascading bankruptcy of private firms?one might have expected these issues to dominate the agenda of the Chinese Communist Party's annual Central Committee plenum at the end of last month. But they didn't. 高いインフレ、減少する輸出、山積する地方政府の負債、民間企業の倒産の増加、といった事項がある中国では、人は普通、それらのイシューが 共産党の6中全会の重要課題と予想するが
Instead of addressing the country's most pressing economic and social challenges, Beijing decided that Chinese culture needed a strong dose of political stimulation. Specifically, the Party wants to push ahead with an ambitious plan to tighten its control over culture while trying to make it "grow and prosper." そうではなくて、共産党は国の直面する経済社会問題では無く、中国の文化は強い政治的刺激策が必要と決めた。共産党は「成長と繁栄」を達成 すべく、文化に対するコントロールを強めるという野心的な政策を進める。(後略)
イタリアの状況についてWSJ実況ブログ(ザ・ソース)から ---------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://blogs.wsj.com/source/ The so-called "Berlusconi bounce" following his resignation announcement on Tuesday has dissipated Wednesday morning. 昨日から、ベルルスコーニ辞任を歓迎した、(アディオ)べるちゃんラリーがあったのだが今日になってそれが消えてしまった
Italy's ten-year borrowing costs have soared and broken through the critical 7% barrier which triggered bailouts for other countries in the euro zone. イタリアの10年国債イールドはクリティカルなポイントである7%の壁を超え
Increased margin requirements placed on those dealing in Italian sovereign bonds has not helped matters, but confusion remains over when Silvio Berlusconi will eventually step down and, more significantly, who will step in to fill the power vacuum and transform Italy's perilous fiscal position. ベルルスコーニの辞任の時期が不透明で、より重要なことには、権力の真空状態を埋める次期首相が誰なのか不明である
Elsewhere, Greece's political leaders are still attempting to hammer out a deal to appoint a new prime minister who would lead an interim government of national unity. The appointee is due to be confirmed Wednesday but wrangling between Greece's political parties could delay the announcement. 一方でギリシャでも次期首相をめぐってgdgdが続いている。水曜日に次期首相を発表予定であったが政党の対立がそれを遅らせるかも知れない
FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) -- The yield on benchmark Italian 10-year government bonds moved above the critical 7% level widely viewed as unsustainable on Wednesday morning after clearing firm LCH.Clearnet raised margin requirements for trading Italian debt. The yield IT:10YR_ITA -1.07% was seen at 7.09% in recent action, up 51 basis points from Tuesday, according to FactSet Research. Sustained yields above the 7% level would translate into borrowing costs that would make it difficult for Italy to maintain funding needs, strategists say.
イタリア政治状況についてFTの実況ブログから、RBSの現状認識 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2011/11/eurozone-crisis-live-blog-11/#axzz1dCYiX72e The RBS view is that there will be election early next year. They do not see any major change in the fundamentals of the political situation with Berlusconi saying he going to step down. They do not believe that political forces in Italy will be able to agree a political consensus (technical govt etc) that will be able to push through the austerity measures demanded by the EU. “The idea that this is the light at the end of the tunnel is hope rather than reality.” RBS believes recession in Italy probably started in Q3, expected percentage point contraction for next year so expect more pressure on public finances. This is not just about the Italian political situation, there is a serious misunderstanding of the crisis that has reached such as systemic level that it is looking tougher and tougher to find a sufficient response… We are getting close to a situation where ECB buying is not enough to backstop the crisis.
ttp://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2011/11/eurozone-crisis-live-blog-11/#axzz1dCYiX72e 14.39 Kerin Hope in Athens has the latest on the Greek government: It’s not official yet but people who should know have told the FT that Philippos Petsalnikos, the speaker of parliament, is going to be named Greece’s next prime minister in the next few hours. He’s the candidate that George Papandreou, the outgoing socialist prime minister, wanted all along, it seems.
In Moscow, Lagarde met Monday with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, where senior Russian officials said they would be willing to work with the fund on an assistance plan for the embattled eurozone. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has rejected the suggestion that Russia invest directly in the EFSF, but he indicated there were other possibilities. Discussions have centered on the amount of 10 billion dollars. In exchange, there is an expectation that emerging economies gain a greater say in decisions about the global rescue plan.
FTのEU危機・実況ブログから ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2011/11/eurozone-crisis-live-blog-11/#axzz1dCYiX72e 18.53 That’s it for our live coverage today. We leave you with a round-up of where we stand at the end of another turbulent day in Europe ? and some cold hard numbers (and letters) for your bedtime reading. 今日のまとめ
Investor confidence in Italy collapsed, sending borrowing costs to panic levels (with bond yields setting new euro-era records well above 7 per cent). Italian stocks were pummelled, the euro slipped against the dollar イタリア国債への投資家の信頼喪失でイールド7%超え、イタリア株式暴落、ユーロは対ドルで下落
LCH.Clearnet, the UK-based clearing house, raised the amount of margin ? or collateral ? that traders must post to insure trades against losses on Italian bonds 債券トレーディングのクリアリングハウスであるLCH.Clearnetはイタリア債券のトレーディングの保証金を増額
Giorgio Napolitano, Italy’s president, sought to inspire some calm by stressing that there was no uncertainty as to whether Silvio Berlusconi would be departing イタリア大統領ナポリターノはベルルスコーニ辞任を確認し市場に落ち着きを与えた
There were a growing chorus of calls for the ECB to declare itself Europe’s lender of last resort ECBが最後の貸し手としての宣言をすべきとの声が高まっている
Greece’s political elite failed to name a new prime minister and will try again in the morning ギリシャでは時期首相指名が失敗、明朝に再度トライ
General Motors’ warning that it would not break even in Europe added to evidence of the far-reaching effects of the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis GMは欧州でのオペレーションがブレークイーブンにならない(損失が続く)と述べてヨーロッパのムードに暗さ追加
India and China issued a rare joint statement calling on the developed world to get its act together 稀なことにインドと中国が共同声明で、先進国が共同・統一行動して問題解決にあたるよう要請
FT記事では・・ ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/24b44d78-08ee-11e1-9fe8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1cxhoFctX After intial news that Greece had chosen a new prime minister, parliamentary president Filippos Petsalnikos, it was reported that already the coalition had rejected him ? sending risk assets back toward their morning lows. 当初、ギリシャ議会はフィリポス・ペツァルニコス国会議長を次期首相に決定と報道されたが、そのあとで連立政党がこれを拒否と伝えられ リスクアセットが再び値を下げることになった
WSJ記事いわく・・ ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204358004577027563820324198.html?mod=WSJ_Markets_LEFTTopStories Adding to the unease were concerns about the transfer of power in Greece. "The danger is, what if the same type of delay continues not just in Greece but in Italy, and other parts of southern Europe? That's where markets are starting to get very nervous," said Oliver Pursche, president of Gary Goldberg Financial Services. "The deal was supposed to be a done deal last weekend." ギリシャの新政権樹立のgdgdが市場に悪影響を与えていて「ギリシャもそうだがイタリアにおいても政治的gdgdがあるようで、こういうことに 対して市場は神経質になっている。その決定は本来先週末になされているはずだった」とGary Goldberg Financial ServicesのOliver Pursche社長。
(Reuters) - German and French officials have discussed plans for a radical overhaul of the European Union that would involve establishing a more integrated and potentially smaller euro zone, EU sources say. フランスとドイツの高官はユーロ圏の修復のためのラディカルな計画を議論している。それはより緊密に統合された、潜在的により小さな ユーロ圏であるとEUのソースがロイターに告げている
"France and Germany have had intense consultations on this issue over the last months, at all levels," a senior EU official in Brussels told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions. 「独仏は過去数カ月間、全てのレベルで、この計画について熱心にコンサルテーションを続けている」と匿名ソースがロイターに告げた
"We need to move very cautiously, but the truth is that we need to establish exactly the list of those who don't want to be part of the club and those who simply cannot be part," the official said. 「我々は特別に慎重に事を運ぶ必要があるが、結局のところ我々は(EU)クラブに属することを望まない国や属することの不可能な国をリスト アップする必要がある」
French President Nicolas Sarkozy gave some flavor of his thinking during an address to students in the eastern French city of Strasbourg on Tuesday, when he said a two-speed Europe -- the euro zone moving ahead more rapidly than all 27 countries in the EU -- was the only model for the future. サルコジ大統領は火曜日にストラスブルグで「ツー・スピ−ド・ヨーロッパ」について語り27ヶ国に先行してより早く動くユーロ圏を語っている
The discussions among senior policymakers in Paris, Berlin and Brussels go further, raising the possibility of one or more countries leaving the euro zone while the remaining core pushes on toward deeper economic integration, including on tax and fiscal policy. フランス、ドイツ、EU本部で議論されているこの計画は一つかそれ以上の国がユーロ圏を抜け、コアの国々がより深い経済統合に進むという計画 を含んでいて、後者は税制や財政の統合を含む。
The change has been discussed on an "intellectual" level but had not moved to operational or technical discussions, the EU official said, while a French government source said there was no such project in the works. この議論は思考上のもので、オペレーショナルなレベルにいたってはいないという。フランスの政府ソースはそういう計画はないという。
Such steps are opposed by many EU countries, whose backing would be needed for any adjustments to the bloc's treaties, making them anything but a done deal. そうした計画は多くのEU諸国の反対が在り得るが、諸国の同意がユーロ条約の改訂には必要
"This will unravel everything our forebears have painstakingly built up and repudiate all that they stood for in the past sixty years," one EU diplomat told Reuters. "This is not about a two-speed Europe, we already have that. This will redraw the map geopolitically and give rise to new tensions. It could truly be the end of Europe as we know it." (後略)
FTは、ギリシャとイタリアの政治の混乱が、ユーロ圏の終焉(分裂)の議論を呼んでいて、市場が混乱と書いている ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wednesday 20:15 GMT. Political troubles in Italy and Greece has sparked discussions of the end of the eurozone, sending stocks and the euro tumbling・・ ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/24b44d78-08ee-11e1-9fe8-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1cxhoFctX Eurozone break-up talk rattles markets By FT Reporters ユーロ圏のブレークアップの議論が市場を揺るがす FT
Another nail in the coffin for old Europe’s risk free status. The French 10 year note is now seen as a spread product over comparable Bunds ? 153bp at pixel time. 古きヨーロッパのリスク・フリーの地位に新たな終焉を告げるものが。フランス10年国債のドイツ国債へのスプレッドは153bpの高さに。
According to our quote machines, the last time spreads were higher was during the pre-euro age of innocence, or October 1990, when the spread was 237bp. If this is the new normal for French credit risk, it could have a huge impact on French corporate capital-raising trends as markets price in the declining creditworthiness of the sovereign. Nevertheless, the fall in Bund yields provides a natural offset for corporates that price off new risk relative to the German benchmark. Anyway, markets are sounding the alarm over France’s fiscal funk and financial exposure to Italy. This is getting scary. 記録に依ればフランス国債のすプレッドが今よりも高かった時期というのはユーロ導入以前の1990年で、その時のスプレッドは237bp これがフランスのクレジット・リスクの新たな正常値になるのなら、それはフランス企業の資本調達に大きな影響を与える。ソブリンの信用が 毀損しているおりから尚そうである。ドイツ国債のイールド低下はオフセットを与え、ドイツ基準でのリスクの値下げを与える。いずれにせよ 市場はフランスのイタリアに対する金融エクスポージャーと財政の臆病さに対する警鐘を鳴らしている。しだいに危うい事態になりつつある。
Italian bond yields are falling ? the 10-year’s below 7 per cent: イタリア10年国債イールド低下中、7%を切っている European equity markets are rallying, helped by rumours of an emergency ECB announcement later today. ヨーロッパの株式市場は上げている、ECBが今日、緊急のアナウンスをするという噂も手伝って・・
*注 Bunga bunga is a phrase of uncertain meaning that dates from 1910 if not earlier. By 2010 the phrase had gained popularity in Italy and the international press as well, when it was used by the Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to refer to his alleged sex parties, which caused a major political scandal in Italy.
Brace yourself. Here are some reasons why markets are giving France, in particular, a kicking today, according to the Banca D’Italia’s latest financial sector report on November 2: これはチャートを見れば自明。フランスのイクスポージャーに懸念の持たれるのは理由があるわけで、これはBanca D’Italia謹製の資料(BISデータ)
Figure A shows the trend in the total gross assets held by some large European Union countries (France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom) vis-a-vis Greece, Ireland and Portugal in the aggregate and also Belgium, Italy and Spain. The growth of gross assets was rapid for France, which had total exposure equal to about 60 per cent of its GDP at the end of 2009. For Germany the rise was more moderate but still resulted in an overall exposure of more than 30 per cent of GD P. The United Kingdom’s exposure to Greece, Ireland and Portugal rose particularly sharply (to over 25 per cent of GDP).
For the Netherlands, whose degree of openness and financial deepening is especially high, the exposure to the six countries comes to more than 100 per cent of GDP, owing in part to the massive presence of special purpose entities controlled by European financial companies. Italy’s overall exposure to the countries with sovereign debt strains ? not counting domestic assets ? is much lower (less than 15 per cent of GD P), compared with the other main European countries.
For both France and Germany the largest component of the exposure is debt securities (government and corporate), followed by bank loans (Figure B). For the UK the exposure consists primarily of substantial bank assets vis-a-vis Ireland.
With interest rates on its sovereign debt surging well above seven per cent, there is a rising risk that Italy may soon lose market access. Given that it is too-big-to-fail but also too-big-to-save, this could lead to a forced restructuring of its public debt of ?1,900bn. That would partially address its “stock” problem of large and unsustainable debt but it would not resolve its “flow” problem, a large current account deficit, lack of external competitiveness and a worsening plunge in gross domestic product and economic activity. To resolve the latter, Italy may, like other periphery countries, need to exit the monetary union and go back to a national currency, thus triggering an effective break-up of the eurozone. ・・・・
So Italy and other illiquid, but solvent, sovereigns need a “big bazooka” to prevent the self-fulfilling bad equilibrium of a run on the public debt. The trouble is, however, that there is no credible lender of last resort in the eurozone. ・・・・
So, since the levered EFSF and the EFSF SPV will not fly ? and there is not enough International Monetary Fund money to rescue Italy and/or Spain ? the spreads for Italian debt have reached a point of no return. ・・・・
So if you cannot devalue, or grow, or deflate to a real depreciation, the only option left will end up being to give up on the euro and to go back to the lira and other national currencies. Of course that will trigger a forced conversion of euro debts into new national currency debts.(ry
The eurozone can survive with the debt restructuring and exit of a small country such as Greece or Portugal. But if Italy and/or Spain were to restructure and exit this would effectively be a break-up of the currency union. Unfortunately this slow-motion train wreck is now increasingly likely. Only if the ECB became an unlimited lender of last resort and cut policy rates to zero, combined with a fall in the value of the euro to parity with the dollar, plus a fiscal stimulus in Germany and the eurozone core while the periphery implements austerity, could we perhaps stop the upcoming disaster. ユーロ圏は負債のリストラやギリシャ、ポルトガルなどの小国の離脱によって生きながらえることが出来る。しかしもしイタリアやスペインが 負債のリストラとユーロ圏離脱を行うなら単一通貨の分裂が起きるが、困ったことに、この列車のスローモーション衝突事故のようなシナリオ は今や加速的に有りそうに思えてくる。ECBが究極の貸し手として機能し政策金利をゼロにして、ユーロの価値をドルとパリティ程度に下げて それに加えてドイツや他のコア・ユーロ諸国が経済刺激策を行い、ユーロ周辺国が緊縮財政を実施すれば、おそらく迫り来る破綻を避けられる。