Last Wednesday's summit in Brussels took important steps toward saving the European common currency. But it also made it clear that the European Union is being divided in two. Germany is the new Europe's leader -- for better or worse. By SPIEGEL Staff 先週水曜日にブリュッセルで開かれたサミットは単一共通通貨の維持のために重要なものであったが、それと同時にEUが二分割されている 事を明確にするもので、ドイツは良かれ悪しかれ新たなヨーロッパのリーダーとなった。
Two Europes It was a memorable meeting, and when it finally ended in the early morning hours of Thursday, a program to rescue the euro had emerged. It revealed the contours of a new Europe -- a divided Europe, with a new border running between those countries which belong to the common currency area and those which do not. In the future, there will be two Europes within the European Union. One could very well be called Merkel's Europe. The German chancellor played an essential role in creating it, and now the euro zone is the kind of entity she envisioned. Merkel's Europe is a sober, rational creation. As such, it bears a resemblance to its creator, a person with no great vision or passion about matters like peace or culture.
Stragglers and Second-Tier Nations There were periods in this process when Merkel was sharply criticized abroad -- in both the United States and Europe -- as well as at home by the opposition and the media. Everyone, it seemed, wanted Germany to finally take a leadership role, which, for some, really meant that it was time for Berlin to pay up. But Merkel remained persistent. She is less fearful of someone like US President Barack Obama than of German voters.(ry
>>122 ロードマップ的には @ ギリシャ、国民投票で乞食宣言 A えう加盟国、ギリシャ斬り捨て決定 B えう、同時にユーロ共同債起債、金融危機対策基金設置、対処。 C 切り捨てられたギリシャ、超インフレとなり、世紀末ヒャッハー!となる。 D ギリシャ崩壊に対処する(キリッ! と言ってえう治安軍進駐&強制IMF E 国連安保理でギリシャのえう信託統治案可決
(2)ギリシャはNATO加盟国 (3)退役軍人が政府の緊縮財政の一環の年金減額に抗議して防衛省占拠の動きが言われ、クーデターよりそういう暴動の起こる可能性との説も (4)国防相は今週、参謀総長を解任 The more so given the unexpected announcement that Mr Papandreou intends to dismiss the chief of the defence staff and the heads of the army, navy and air force, which has rather unpleasant echoes of 1974, despite the Greek government’s protestations that it had long planned to replace the heads of the armed forces. At best the timing is unfortunate, at worst it could engender a split in the military, which could in theory at least be a seedbed for an intervention. ttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/11/02/721551/greece-and-its-military/
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve on Wednesday sliced its growth outlook sharply for this year, 2012 and 2013, and also significantly increased its unemployment rate forecast. The Fed's board members and presidents now see 2011 GDP between 1.6% and 1.7%, 2012 GDP between 2.5% and 2.9%, 2013 GDP between 3% and 3.5% and 2014 GDP between 3% and 3.9%. Its last outlook -- published before the Commerce Department sharply cut its estimates of first- and second-quarter growth -- called for 2011 GDP between 2.7% and 2.9%, 2012 GDP between 3.3% and 3.7%, and 2013 GDP between 3.5% and 4.2%. The unemployment rate is now forecast between 9% and 9.1% this year, between 8.5% and 8.7% in 2012, between 7.8% and 8.2% in 2013 and between 6.8% and 7.7% in 2014. Even the Fed's long-term GDP and jobless forecasts changed, with the GDP estimate sliced by a tenth of a percentage point and the top end of the jobless rate up four -tenths to 6%. On personal consumption expenditure inflation, it now sees 2.7% to 2.9% inflation this year, 1.4% to 2% inflation next year, 1.5% to 2% inflation in 2013 and 1.5% to 2% inflation in 2014.
After a year of credit tightening and efforts to cool the property sector, Beijing’s restrictive policies are starting to have a visible impact on the real economy. 不動産バブルを抑制するための中国政府のクレジット引き締め政策の結果、経済の各所にその影響が現れている
Nowhere is this clearer than in raw materials like steel, cement and copper, which are linked to construction and the cooling property market. もっとも顕著であるのは原材料価格で、鉄鋼、セメント、銅などの建設セクターに関係の強いものがそれである。
China’s steel production dropped in mid-October to its lowest daily level since January, and global prices for iron ore, a key steelmaking ingredient have dropped more than 30 per cent in the last month due to weak Chinese demand. 10月中旬に中国の日量鉄鋼生産は1月以降の最低値に達し、鉄鉱石の価格も30%以上低下している。
With around 40 per cent of demand closely linked to China’s cooling property sector, steel has been one of the hardest-hit sectors. Construction has slowed due to government purchasing restrictions on residential real estate as well as tighter credit. Housing inventories stand at more than 11 months worth of sales ? their highest level in years ? and in October residential property prices recorded their biggest decline this year, falling 0.23 per cent, according to the China Real Estate Index System. 中国では鉄鋼の40%が不動産開発セクターと密接にリンクしていて、政府の不動産バブル抑制政策の影響を受けている。住宅在庫は11ヶ月分に 増大し、10月の住居用不動産価格は今年最大の0.23%の下落を示している。
“We cannot sell anything,” said a trader of construction steel based in Inner Mongolia. “In the next two months, our [steel] inventories will increase,” he said, explaining that his company was continuing to receive steel under its long-term contracts with major steel mills. However many of the small steel mills that are more sensitive to price conditions began cutting production last month due to slack demand.
Cannes, France - The European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) froze bailout payments to Greece after Athens threw into disarray a new rescue package by calling for a referendum on the measure, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said Wednesday. 'We simply say that we can dish out money from European taxpayers ... as soon as rules that have been approved by unanimity are respected,' Sarkozy told journalists, speaking alongside German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
If the rules 'are not respected, then neither Europe nor the IMF can give out a single cent,' Sarkozy said after emergency talks in Cannes with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou. Sarkozy also said that Papandreou - whose country was due to receive 8 billion euros (11 billion dollars) from the EU and the IMF this month - intends to hold the referendum 'on around December 4 or 5.'
"There's absolutely something wrong with the system," said Jessica Medina, a single mother who attends school part time and works at an Oakland cafDe. "We need to change that."
Organizers say they want to stop the "flow of capital." The port sends goods primarily to Asia, including wine as well as rice, fruits and nuts, and handles imported electronics, apparel and manufacturing equipment, mostly from Asia, as well as cars and parts from Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Hyundai.
Craig Merrilees, spokesman for the International Longshore and Warehouse Union, said its members were not being called to strike, but that they supported the protesters. The members "are supporting the concerns raised by Occupy Oakland and the Occupy movement to speak up for the 99 percent and against the corporate greed that is wrecking America," Merrilees said.
Number of computers in TOP500 Top speed (Rmax)(Tflops) Sum speed (Rmax)(Pflops)
United States 256 1,759 25.28 China 62 2,566 7.176 Germany 30 826 3.242 United Kingdom 27 280 1.872 Japan 26 8,162 11.182 France 25 1,050 3.18 Russia 12 674 1.341
While the K computer reports the highest total power consumption of any TOP500 supercomputer (9.89 MW - the equivalent of almost 10,000 suburban homes), the computer achieves 824.6 GFlop/kWatt, which is 29.8% more efficient than China's NUDT TH MPP (ranked #2 - 2011/06) and 225.8% more efficient than the Oak Ridge's Jaguar-Cray XT5-HE (ranked #3 - 2011/06). This efficiency rating still falls far short of the 2097.2 GFlops/kWatt supercomputer record set by the (currently 109th-fastest) IBM's NNSA/SC Blue Gene/Q Prototype 2 using the PowerPC A2. The average power consumption of a TOP 10 system is 4.3 MW and the average efficiency is 463.7 GFlop/kW.
ギリシャ副首相(兼財相)の Evangelos Venizelosのカンヌ到着時のお言葉 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.evenizelos.gr/en/home/2791-cannes- Statement by Ev. Venizelos from Cannes Thursday 3, November 2011 Upon arrival to Athens from Cannes at 4.45 am, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister of the Hellenic Republic, Evangelos Venizelos, made the following statement: ギリシャ副首相(兼財相)のEvangelos Venizelosは4:45カンヌに到着し、以下のステートメントを発表
Greece’s position within the euro area is a historic conquest of the country that cannot be put in doubt. This acquis by the Greek people cannot depend on a referendum. ギリシャのユーロ圏における位置というのは、ギリシャの歴史的な征服で、それを危ぶませるものはあってはならず、ギリシャ国民の(ユーロ圏 内の)位置は国民投票に依存するものではない。
The country must feel safe and stable and that is the first requirement in order for it to be truly safe and stable. Greek banks are totally secure, as an integral part of the European banking system. This was apparent last night from the discussion in Cannes. 国家は安全で安定であるべきであり、ギリシャの銀行は欧州銀行システムの不可欠の部分であって完全に堅固である。これは昨夜の中国との 議論からも明確になっている
What is important is for the sixth tranche to be disbursed, without any distractions or delay, according to the decisions of Eurogroup of October 26, which came as a result of 10 hours of hard negotiations. 重要であることは第六番目の支援が10月26日の合意に従っていかなる遅れや障害もなく支払われることである
The next step is to activate, before the end of the year, the new support programme that provides Greece with an additional 130 billion euro and leads to a reduction of Greek sovereign debt of about 100 billion euro. The completion of these processes is a national project. 次のステップは年内にギリシャに対する追加1300億ユーロの新規救済計画をアクチベートすることでありギリシャのソブリン負債、約1000億ユーロ の減免である。このプロセスの遂行は国家計画である。
(Reuters) - The euro zone is working on a possible exit of Greece from the euro zone, Eurogroup head Jean-Claude Juncker said on Thursday, saying it was essential that other members of the currency union would not be damaged in such an event.
Asked what would happen to German taxpayers' money if Greece were to leave, Juncker told ZDF Morgenmagazin: "We are working on the subject of how to ensure there is not a disaster for the people in Germany, Luxembourg, the euro zone. We are absolutely prepared for the situation which I describe and which I want to be avoided." "This is not my favored scenario. I would like Greece to stay on board but Greece must fulfill its obligations," he said.
ttp://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2011/11/201111310743878884.html Greek government on verge of collapse Last Modified: 03 Nov 2011 11:20 Several ruling party members quit over referendum on bailout package, reducing PM's majority ahead of confidence vote. ギリシャ政府は崩壊寸前である アルジャジーラ
Costas Panagopoulos, managing director of pollsters ALCO, said: "I don't think the government will last until tonight." 世論調査機関ALCOの役員であるCostas Panagopoulosは「政権は今夜にも崩壊しかねない」と述べた
Nov 3 (Reuters) - Greece's conservative opposition leader on Thursday called for a caretaker government to lead the country until snap elections are held, saying the present parliament should ratify a bailout package agreed last month. ギリシャの野党党首は、先月のEUサミットで合意された救済パッケージの承認を求め、あわせて選挙管理内閣の樹立と選挙実施を求めた
"I'm asking for the formation of a temporary, transitional government with an exclusive mandate to immediately hold elections. And the ratification of the bailout deal from the current parliament," he said in a statement. 「救済パッケージの承認と選挙の早期実施を行うための暫定内閣の樹立を求める」(後略)
You can argue that this move was either not enough, or not the right medicine for a debt-fueled problem. You’d have good points. But this is a sign that the ECB is finally waking up to the fact that financial conditions are too tight in Europe, and that’s good news. The ECB might eventually have to carry the whole mess on its shoulders.
George Papandreou, Greek prime minister, has scrapped a controversial plan to hold a referendum on the heavily indebted country’s membership of the European Union and eurozone.
A taboo has also been broken. Merkel and Sarkozy, in issuing their ultimatum to Greece on Wednesday night, acknowledged that is possible for a country to leave the eurozone. タブーは破られてサルコジとメルケルが水曜日の夜、ギリシャのユーロ離脱の可能性に言及した
Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at the thinktank Capital Economics, commented: "The fact that a Greek exit has been so openly discussed among the eurozone elite is a seismic shift from the previous position in which it was widely argued ... a country could not possibly leave because of insurmountable hurdles. The cat, it would seem, is well and truly out of the bag." シンクタンクCapital Economicsの主任エコノミストJonathan Loynes「ここまでオープンにギリシャのユーロ離脱の可能性がエリートに議論 されるようになったという事実は、以前のポジションに比べて劇的なシフトである。以前にはギリシャのユーロ離脱には乗り越えることので きないハードルがあるという前提だった。The cat is ・・ out of the bag.(秘密がバレてしまった)」
*注 let the cat out of the bag うっかり秘密を漏らす◆【語源】袋に入れた猫を「豚が入っている」とうそをついて売ろうとしたら、 袋を開けられて、秘密がばれてしまったという話から。
著名なチャイナ・ウオッチャーの書いている中国経済の先行きへの懐疑論。タイトルの「Swimming Naked」というのは、ことわざの ・・bankers on Wall Street had a popular saying: “When the tide is high, nobody knows you are swimming naked.” 好景気で高い成長が続いている間は、(企業等に)何かの無防備な問題があっても水面下に隠されていて見えない、というほどの意味。
There are three possible ways the crisis will play out. First, Papandreou could refuse to resign and possibly win the no-confidence vote Friday. This is unlikely since his overall support has reached its all-time low. The second, more likely scenario is that Papandreou loses the vote tomorrow and the President of the Hellenic Republic, Karolos Papoulias, turns to the other political party leaders to determine if the existing Parliament could form a government. The final scenario, if these efforts fail to build a government, would be new elections, as called for by the Greek Constitution. But it is most likely that a one-party government will not emerge from these elections.
The only way out of these three scenarios is to form a Grand Coalition. What is a Grand Coalition government? In multi-party parliamentary systems, sometimes one-party governments cannot form. In such instances, coalition governments are often formed including more than one party in order to secure a Parliamentary majority, manage to form a government and pass legislation.
Mr. Samaras, like Mr. Papandreou, is the scion of one of Greece's elite families. Eloquent and flamboyant, the young Mr. Samaras was the rising star of Greek conservatism until the early '90s, when he fell out with Greece's then-prime minister and went into political exile, before recently staging a comeback.
Throughout this year, Mr. Samaras has angered euro-zone authorities by refusing to support their plan for closing Greece's huge budget deficit. Instead of austerity, he has argued for tax cuts, defying pressure from Germany and France, which have made clear they are not prepared to finance his wishes.
Many European diplomats have bad memories of Mr. Samaras for what they called his inflexible, ultra-patriotic stances as foreign minister in theearly 1990s. "Samaras has a huge problem with European leaders because they believe he's a nationalist and a populist," said Athenian newspaper publisher George Kyrtsos. "But now the same people in Berlin and Paris are outraged by Papandreou and his referendum idea. These events will probably help them to swallow Samaras." ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204621904577016300183131724.html
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. added 80,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate edged down to 9.0% from 9.1%, the Labor Department reported Friday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast a 90,000 increase in employment and no change in the jobless rate. Although the increase in employment fell short of Wall Street expectations, government revisions showed sharply higher job growth in September and August. Hiring in September was revised up to 158,000 from 103,000 and job growth in August was revised up to 104,000 from 57,000. In October, companies in the private sector hired 104,000 workers, but government cut 24,000 jobs to reduce the overall gain to 80,000, the Labor Department said. Hourly earnings rose 0.2% last month and the workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours. The broader U6 unemployment rate fell to 16.2% from 16.5% in September.
First, upward revisions to August and September totaling 102k. Thus the level of jobs are higher than thought going into the report. You want to see revisions to the upside if one expects firming labor conditions. Weaker labor markets normally create downward revisions. Trend is moving in right direction. Second, the household survey was very strong, again and we keyed on this measure more than the payrolls. One strong month is nice, two consecutive strong months get you scratching your head wondering hmmm., and three strong months set a trend. This is the third consecutive month of very strong job gains (277k) averaging about 325k after an average loss of 125k. This drove a modest drop in the unemployment rate from 9.1% (the expectation) to 9.0%. Underemployment fell from 16.5% to 16.2%. Third, Temp hiring retained its uptrend off the summer lows posting gains of 15k. Downward revisions, weak temporary hiring, and falling hours are not good signs of future demand, but this report pointed toward trend improvement in all areas.
U1: Percentage of labour force unemployed 15 weeks or longer. U2: Percentage of labour force who lost jobs or completed temporary work. U3: Official unemployment rate per the ILO definition occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks.[2] U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them. U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently. U6: U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but cannot due to economic reasons (underemployment).
ギリシャというお国柄・・・ There are more Porsche Cayennes registered in Greece than taxpayers declaring an income of 50,000 euros (£43,800) or more, according to research by Professor Herakles Polemarchakis, former head of the Greek prime minister’s economic department.
言うまでもなく良からぬ傾向が見られ、FTアルファビレは As Corrigan notes to FT Alphaville, orders have now suffered their worst three-month run in post-Reunification times (apart from the 2008 crash). The latest data on Friday has them falling at a 28 per cent annualized rate, taking the total back to where it first stood over five years ago. ttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/11/04/727611/about-that-last-bastion-of-health-in-europe/
Honey, I shrunk Emerging Europe Posted by Joseph Cotterill on Nov 04 13:33. Eurozone banks selling assets in Emerging Europe ? to tart up their capital ratios under crisis pressure ? is not front-page news at the moment.
このヨーロッパの銀行の金繰り(デレバレッジ)でどの国が影響を大きく受けそうかというと Well… the likes of Hungary and Poland are in the EU, but foreigners own their banking systems to a huge extent. Outside the EU, Russia, Turkey et al. are also vulnerable to “optimisation of risk-weighted assets,” to use the euphemism plastered all over eurozone banks’ Q3 results presentations. Clearly they’re already on the front line. ttp://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2011/11/EE_Nomura.png
ギリシャ政治状況(AP) 11:51 a.m. Friday, November 4, 2011 ttp://www.ajc.com/business/apnewsbreak-own-party-urges-1216567.html Government ministers and senior Socialist officials continued to pile pressure on Papandreou to hold immediate talks to form a national unity government ? signaling that he may have to soon step aside even if he wins Friday's vote. A senior Socialist lawmaker told The Associated Press he will not support the government in the midnight vote unless Papandreou pledges to resign over the weekend and start talks on a caretaker government.
Employees of the company have given $108,650 to Obama’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee, according to federal records. MF Global’s chairman and chief executive, former New Jersey governor Jon Corzine, has raised at least $500,000 for the campaign and the DNC as a “bundler,” or volunteer fundraiser. MFグローバル社長兼会長のJon Corzineはオバマ選挙資金の献金取りまとめ役として少なくとも50万ドルを集めている他、会社の従業員からは 10.8万ドルが献金されている
There has been speculation that he could be in line for Treasury secretary if the president is reelected. オバマが再選されれば、Jon Corzineが財務長官になるのでは、との憶測がある
Obama held his first New York fundraiser for the reelection campaign at Corzine’s home on Fifth Avenue in Manhattan, overlooking Central Park. Guests gave the maximum $35,800 donation to Obama and the DNC. オバマのニューヨークでの再選のための最初の政治資金集めのパーティは、フィフス・アベニューのセントラルパークを見下ろすJon Corzineの 自宅で行われ、参加者は最大$35,800 の献金を行った
Obama’s links to financial companies don’t end with MF Global. The president has raised $15.6 million from the financial industry for his reelection effort and the DNC, according to a Washington Post analysis. オバマとウオール街の金融機関の関係はMFグローバルにとどまらず、彼は再選用の政治資金$15.6 millionを金融会社から得ている。 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *国内メディアが報じないので、あまり知られていないけれど、ゴールドマンやMFグローバルなどはプロ・オバマの会社で、ウオール街との 付き合いは共和党候補よりもオバマのほうが親密であることは有名。「ウオール街を占拠せよ」運動をオバマ再選キャンペーンが支持するなどと いうのは茶番もいいところで、片腹痛いというべき
これはまあ、ちょっと極端な方に属するのかもしれないイタリア経済への投機的な見通しで、WSJマーケットビートの紹介している Brown Brothers Harriman のWin Thinの見方 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/11/04/while-watching-greece-weve-nearly-lost-italy/?mod=WSJBlog Events continue to spiral beyond the control of European policy-makers. With so much time and effort being put into Greece, the troika now finds itself facing a much bigger problem: Italy. While it has been difficult to remain committed to a short EUR trade, we believe the crisis is entering into territory that will take a huge, sharp toll on the single currency in the coming days. Our year-end target of 1.29 remains intact, and we think the risk is that we hit it before the month is out. イベントはヨーロッパの政策立案者たちのコントロールを超えてスパイラルしているわけだが、ギリシャの問題にあまりに多くの時間と努力 は費やされていいる中で、より大きな問題が生じている。イタリアである。ユーロのショートにコミットを続けることは困難であるが、我々 は危機が近日中に単一共通通貨に急峻で大きな影響を与えると考える。我々の年末のユーロ対ドル相場の予想は1.29で変わらず、さらに我々 は、この値が1ヶ月以内に実現するリスクがあると思う
Italian borrowing costs have continued to march upwards to new euro-era highs, with the 10-year quickly approaching the 7% level that many see as the point of no return. While it may be tempting to talk about contagion, we note that Italian debt numbers were already bad heading into this crisis. イタリア国債位のイールドはユーロ加盟後の最高領域で、10年国債のイールドは急速に7%を目指して接近している。この値はポイント・オブ・ ノーリターンにあたるかも知れない。こうした状況を危機の感染と呼びたくなるが、我々の考えではイタリアの債務の状況は既に危機に向かって いるように見える
Rather, we think it is the failure of euro zone policy-makers to effectively bring closure to its debt crisis that has led to deterioration in sentiment that has ultimately brought Italy into crisis too. It was reported today in newswires that the IMF approached Italy about a stabilization program, but that Italy turned it down and instead requested IMF monitoring. This may have actually been the correct course of action for Italy. As we have noted countless times before, the current crisis response structure from the troika is simply too small to be able to help Italy in any meaningful manner. こうした状況に陥っているのはユーロ圏の政策立案者の失敗であり、危機を効果的に素早く終結させる事が出来なかったために、センチメントの 悪化を招いてイタリアをも危機に陥らせた。IMFは今日、イタリア向けの安定化プログラムを提示したがイタリアは拒否し、その代わりにIMFのモ ニタリングを要請した。これはある意味正しいことで、幾度も言われてきたように現行のトロイカの構造はイタリアの危機を現実的に有意に救う にはあまりにも小さすぎる。(中略)
To us, the best solution for Italy would be for a technocrat government to take over that can deliver the stabilization measures that markets are demanding. Italy’s macro outlook won’t improve overnight, but getting confidence back is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for this crisis to get come under control. 政治の信頼回復が重要なのだが、問題解決にはベルルスコーニ政権に代わって経済安定化政策を実施できるテクノクラート政権ができることが 我々の見解では望ましい。そうすればイタリアのマクロ経済の見通しが好転する。
George Papandreou survived a crucial vote of confidence in parliament on Friday night, but his position as Greek premier will remain at risk as a group of senior socialists have called for a government of national unity to be formed quickly under a new leader. Mr Papandreou on Friday night signalled he may stand down as premier after forming a coalition government to take the country to elections early next year. The Greek prime minister was backed by all 152 lawmakers from his PanHellenic Socialist Movement and by one former socialist cabinet minister sitting as an independent. 金曜日夜のギリシャ議会の内閣信任投票でパパンデレウ首相は与党の152票と与党を離脱した一人の前閣僚の票を得て信任を獲得し内閣の存続を 可能にしたが、首相の地位は依然としてリスクがあり、与党の社会党の一部は新たな指導者のもとでの、早急な挙国一致政権の樹立を求めている。 首相は来年初旬の選挙のための連立政権の樹立後に退任する可能性を示唆している。
Analysts said the new cross-party government could be in place within a week, although Antonis Samaras, the conservative opposition leader, has already refused to participate. アナリストは野党を含む連立政権は1週間以内にも樹立可能と言っているが、野党党首のAntonis Samarasは既に参加を拒否している。
The prime minister said the priorities for the new cross-party government were to approve Greece’s new ?130bn international bail-out package as well as the 2012 budget and further structural reforms. He told parliament he was prepared to hand over the premiership, adding: ”I have never been wedded to my chair.” Any further Greek political turmoil would block the disbursement of another ?8bn loan tranche ? approved but then suspended by international lenders because of this week’s crisis ? and could bring the collapse of the ?130bn bail-out deal agreed at last week’s European Union summit. 首相は連立政権の優先課題をEUとIMFの1300億ユーロの救済パッケージの受け入れ承認、2012年予算の承認、追加の構造改革としている。首相は 議会で首相の地位を退く用意があるとし、地位に執着しないと述べた。これ以上の政治的混乱は承認されたものの留保されている80億ユーロの 融資の支払いや1300億ユーロの救済パッケージの合意の崩壊につながる。
In a telephone call on Thursday to Antonis Samaras, leader of Greek conservatives, Mr Papandreou proposed that the two parties appoint negotiators to set up a consensus government. But Mr Samaras rebuffed the proposal, saying the prime minister should resign before launching the consensus process, a senior conservative said. 野党党首のAntonis Samarasは木曜日に電話インタビューに答えて、与野党が連立政権を組むための交渉役を指名することを首相が提案したと述べ ている。しかし彼はこれを拒否し、コンセンサス形成プロセスの前に首相が辞任すべきとした。 (後略)
Greek politicians from all parties agreed that Mr. Papandreou's days as the country's leader were nearing an end. The prime minister, in an address to lawmakers before the vote, said he was prepared to form a coalition government, which would in all likelihood require him to step aside. ギリシャの全ての政党はパパンデレウ首相の指導者の地位は終焉に来ているとする見方で一致している。首相は議会の演説で、連立政権の形成に 向けて準備しているとしたが、それは彼の首相の地位からの退位を要すると見られる。 (中略) Mr. Papandreou's opponents on the right pressed for a short term, advocating for elections by year-end. Mr. Papandreou's party, Pasok, pressed for the caretaker government to be given four or so months. Snap elections, Mr. Papandreou argued, "would be a catastrophe." 野党は年末までの選挙実施のため選挙管理内閣は短期のものであるべきと主張した。政府与党は4ヶ月程度を主張し短期の選挙実施は破滅的である としている。
The leader of Greek opposition party New Democracy, Antonis Samaras, called instead for immediate elections, saying early Saturday that Mr. Papandreou had rejected his proposals for a coalition government. 野党党首のAntonis Samarasは即時の選挙実施を求め、首相が連立政権の提案を拒否したと土曜日に述べている
"The masks have fallen. Pasok has rejected in its entirety New Democracy's proposals," Mr. Samaras told reporters. "The only solution is immediate elections." Antonis Samarasは記者に「与党のマスクは剥がれ落ちている。政府与党は我々のプロポーザルを拒否した。唯一の解決策は、即時の選挙である」
In Greece, cross-party talks are expected to begin in earnest over the weekend, in the hope of having a new government in place by Monday, ahead of a meeting of euro-zone finance ministers in Brussels that is expected to discuss whether to release Greece's next aid payment. Athens has enough cash to operate now until about the middle of December. 与野党の連立政府樹立に向けた話し合いは週末に行われるものと期待され、月曜日に新政権の樹立が望まれている。月曜日にはブリュッセルで 欧州財相会議があり、ギリシャ向けの支援の留保解除について話し合われると見られる。
If Mr. Venizelos forms a government, he will immediately push to win approval in Parliament for Greece's latest bailout program by its creditors, which includes a 50% write-down for private holders of Greek debt. 暫定政権の首相候補は Venizelos副首相兼財相で、彼が政権を担うことになれば議会でギリシャ救済パッケージの早期承認を計ることになると見 られる。それは民間のギリシャ国債保有者に50%ヘアカットを求めるものでもある。
Such a unity government would likely bring together the currently ruling Socialist party with the far-right Laos party and a grouping of center-right lawmakers led by former Foreign Minister Dora Bakoyannis. It would govern until elections were held at the end of February, Mr. Venizelos told Parliament. 連立政権は、政府与党の社会党に加えて極右のLaos党、前外相のDora Bakoyannisの率いる中道右派の政治家グループを含むものになると見られる。 この連立政権は2月末の選挙までの政権を担当するとVenizelos副首相兼財相が議会で述べている。 (中略) Surviving the confidence vote, analysts said, will allow him to leave with his family honor intact. アナリストに依れば信任投票を勝ち取ったことで首相は名誉を保って退去することができるという
"This is an exit strategy for Mr. Papandreou," said David Lea, an analyst at Control Risks, an independentrisk consultancy. "It is an attempt at an exit with honor." 独立系コンサルタンシー、Control RisksのアナリストDavid Leaは「これはパパンデレウのエクジット戦略だ」という「名誉有る撤退を計るものだ」
As the exchange rate with the dollar is expected to further appreciate in 2012 and 2013, Japan’s currency dilemma will not get any less painful. Yet, if the central bank took its domestic job more seriously, a lot of the currency problem would melt away. 円ドル相場は2012年、2013年に更に円高が予想され、日本の円高のジレンマはすこしも改善されないだろう。でも、日銀が国内の仕事(マネタリ 政策運営)をより真剣に行うのであれば、多くの通貨レートに関わる問題は解消するであろう。
The Bank of Japan has long been experimenting with policy instruments that are well beyond what central banks in other big economies have tried. However, despite being innovative in scope, these policies have been largely conservative in scale, doing little to end Japan’s deflation. 日銀は長きに渡って他の国の中央銀行からみて仕事の範疇を超えるような政策手段を試みてきているが、その行動は対象範囲(の拡大)という点で イノベーティブであるが、其の規模において大いに保守的である為に、日本のデフレーションを終わらせる上であまり役に立っていない。
A more aggressive quantitative easing programme, targeting 10-year government bonds instead of shorter maturities, would contribute more decisively to ease the pressure on the exchange rate. More importantly, it would also stimulate the largely stagnant domestic economy. This is the real question that Japan should try to address. より積極的な量的緩和、短期国債ではなく10年国債を目的指標としたものが円ドル相場への圧力緩和に役に立つであろう。より重要なことは、その 量的緩和は国内経済振興に役立つということである。この問題は日本国が真剣に取り組むべきものである。
Greece has backed away from holding a referendum on the euro bailout package. This week's tumult, however, shows that Europe is still far away from solving the euro crisis. German editorialists on Friday warn that the worst-case scenario may arrive sooner rather than later. ギリシャでの、EUによる救済パッケージの受け入れ可否の国民投票というのは回避されることになったが、今週のドドタバ劇はヨーロッパ がソブリン・ユーロ危機の解消にはど遠いことを示している。ドイツ新聞各紙の社説はワーストケース・シナリオが予想よりも早く現れ るのかも知れないと論じている。
Business daily Handelsblatt "(Were that to happen), the effects would not just be felt in an impoverished Greece, rather in the EU as well. Were Greece to be the first 'sinner' to leave the euro area, despite years of assertions to the contrary, attention would immediately move on to the next weak link in this chain. Were Italy and Spain to become endangered, an uncontrollable domino effect could begin -- which may in the end reach France."
The conservative Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung "Until Thursday ... one thing had never been questioned -- namely whether an overly indebted euro zone member, regardless what happens, would still belong to the currency union. The subject of a withdrawal or expulsion was always a taboo. The fact that the European treaties neither envisioned the one scenario or the other was the very least of the reasons for that." "But this taboo doesn't exist anymore. ・・・・
The center-left Berliner Zeitung "The rescue of the euro zone has failed epically. The conditions (Merkel and Sarkozy) have imposed on the Greeks show just how dramatic the situation has become. No more money will flow (to the country) until it is certain that the savings program will be carried out. If it doesn't? Then the euro will collapse and Greece will have to exit the currency union. Would Europe then collapse, too?" "Regardless how the Greek drama ends, it has been clear since Wednesday night that confidence in the euro has been further seriously damaged. This is because the message sent by Merkel and Sarkozy in their urgency was that the euro zone is not only not going to cover the debts of its members -- but that the euro has not been planned for the long run."(ry
In a Group of 20 summit that fell well short of what was needed, the world’s most powerful leaders were powerless in the face of the manoeuvres by two European premiers: George Papandreou and Silvio Berlusconi. G20は期待されたような成果には乏しく、世界の最強の指導者たちは、2人の欧州の首相の手練手管のまえに、その力が発揮できない。二人の首相 というのはパパンデレウとベルルスコーニである。
The similarities between the two prime ministers are striking: both men rely on a thin and shrinking parliamentary majority and they are both squabbling with their own ministers of finance. Most importantly, they both have a dangerous tendency to renege on their promises at a time when markets worry about their countries’ public finances. There is, however, one important difference: having reached ?1,900bn, Italy’s public debt is so high that its potential to destabilise the world economy is way above that of Athens. この二人の首相はよく似ている所があって、僅かばかりの減少する支持率に頼り、議会でも減少する多数派支配に依存していて、ふたりとも自己の 内閣の財相と口論している。もっとも重要なことには、この二人は市場がその国の財務状況を憂慮しているときに、彼らのした約束を反古にすると いう危険な傾向がある。しかしながら、この二人の重要な相違点は、イタリアの公的負債が1,900bnユーロに達していてギリシャとは比べ物にならな いような、世界経済を震撼させる影響力のあることである。
The good news, of course, is that Italy is still a solvent country. However,・・・ 良いニュースがあって、イタリアは依然として支払い能力のある国である。しかし・・・ (以下省略、イタリアの負債の解説)
After two decades of ineffective showmanship, the only words to say to Mr Berlusconi echo those once used by Oliver Cromwell. In the name of God, Italy and Europe, go! 20年に及ぶ不効率で芝居っ気たっぷりの政治活動のあとに、ベルルスコーニ首相に贈る言葉はオリバー・クロムウェルのいった言葉のみで 「神の名にかけて、ヨーロッパとイタリアの為に、逝け!」
The question of precautionary credit lines led to a strange little incident that highlights Mr Berlusconi’s problem with credibility. The Italian prime minister claimed that the IMF had offered him such a line of credit. But Ms Lagarde said no such offer was made. Who to believe? Most will take Mrs Lagarde’s word over Mr Berlusconi’s.
イタリアとスペインの「酷さの程度」の違いについて、エコノミスト -------------------------------------------------------------- By the same token, Italy’s position is now markedly worse than that of Spain, which until this summer had been seen as the country most likely to succumb after Greece, Ireland and Portugal. But Spain's outlook is now less dire as a result of a succession of reforms, and the decision by the prime minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, to step down at the next election later this month. ttp://www.economist.com/blogs/charlemagne/2011/11/italy-under-imf-supervision
今年の夏以前は、スペインのほうがイタリアよりも悪い位置にいたが、今ではそれが逆転してイタリアのほうがギリシャ、アイルランド、 ポルトガルに続く悪い位置にいるとみなされている。スペインの見通しは今では好転していて、Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero首相の 連続した改革と、今月末に行われる次期選挙後の退任の表明の為である。
ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/nov/04/summit-silvio-berlusconi-wonga-wonga A crisis summit? For Silvio Berlusconi, it's a big wonga-wonga party Only one man is immune to the G20 pressure. The leering Italian PM will surely be history's icon of the grotesque mess we're in Marina Hyde guardian.co.uk, Friday 4 November 2011 22.00 GMT ヨーロッパの危機のサミット? ベルルスコーニにとってはwonga-wongaパーティだわさ
唯一人、G20のプレッシャーにもめげない男がいて、いやらしいイタリア首相は、欧州の陥っているグロテスクな混乱のアイコンである By Marina Hyde 英・ガーディアン
Yet even Merkozy's failure to keep a straight face might be eclipsed on the vignette front by news that the crisis has forced a delay in the release of Berlusconi's fourth album of love songs. Popular myth has it that Nero called for his lyre as Rome burned; Berlusconi called for his karaoke mic. His longtime, guitar-playing collaborator explains that Berlusconi sends her the words and she sets them to music, which suggests the PM may actually have been addressing Italy's catastrophic finances by trying to find a rhyme for "sexy time". 皇帝ネロはローマの焼け落ちるのを見ながら竪琴を弾いていたというが、ベルルスコーニならカラオケのマイクを(ry
<ギリシャ政治状況 FT記事> ttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8cb83976-07da-11e1-b658-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1crlY1wwL George Papandreou’s chances of putting together a strong coalition government that could persuade international lenders to unblock fresh funding for Greece have faded after the conservative leader bluntly rejected his proposal. Antonis Samaras said on Saturday his New Democracy party would not join a new government that would lack a clear mandate. He repeated his call for immediate elections. パパンデレウ首相の大連立政府樹立の望みは最大野党の党首Antonis Samarasが呼びかけを拒否し選挙実施を要求したことで潰えている
Analysts said that without the support of Greece’s largest opposition party, Mr Papandreou would be unable to secure the disbursement of a desperately needed ?8bn loan tranche, exposing the country to the risk of a disorderly default by the middle of December. Herman Van Rompuy, the EU president, has called for both main political parties to back the new programme as a precondition for any funding to be disbursed. アナリストは最大野党の参加なしにはEUとIMFの80億ユーロの融資が滞るおそれがあるという。EU大統領のVan Rompuyはギリシャ救済パッケージの 支払いの条件として、最大の与野党の双方の合意を上げている。
“Europe is running out of patience … it’s clear that if we don’t reach a deal very soon with the conservatives, our financing lines will be cut,” said a senior member of Mr Papandreou’s PanHellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok). Mr Papandreou won a vote of confidence in parliament on Friday night after all 153 socialist lawmakers backed his pledge to build a coalition that would swiftly approve a new ?130bn bail-out agreed by European leaders, thereby securing inflows of more than ?80bn by next March. 与党の幹部は「ヨーロッパは忍耐の限度に達しており、我々が早期に野党と合意に至らないなら我々への金融ラインは閉じられるだろう」と言っている
Mr Samaras said the conservatives were ready to back the second bail-out programme but only after an election, which he said could be held by mid-December: ”No economic adjustment programme can succeed if it doesn’t have the people’s support,” The leaders of two small conservative parties, Laos and Democratic Alliance, said they would not join a coalition unless Mr Samaras’s party had already agreed to participate. Antonis Samarasは救済パッケージを支持する準備があるとしたが、選挙が前提条件と述べている。彼は12月中旬の選挙を主張している。「国民の支持 はないなら、どんな経済調整プログラムも成功しない」二つの少数の保守派政党のLaos と Democratic Allianceは最大野党の保守党の参加がないな ら連立に参加しないと言っている。
Greece’s two leftwing parties also turned down Mr Papandreou’s proposal. Alexis Tsipras, head of the radical Syriza party called for immediate elections. The communist leader Aleka Paparriga said her party would not be “blackmailed” into supporting a coalition. 二つの左翼政党もパパンデレウ首相の提案を拒否しSyriza党のAlexis Tsiprasは即時選挙を要求、共産党の Aleka Paparrigaも連立参加という脅迫 に応じないという
Two opinion polls published in Athens newspapers on Saturday showed more popular support for a coalition government than for a snap election. According to a poll in Proto Thema, about 52 per cent of Greeks would prefer a consensus arrangement to govern until early next year, compared to 36 per cent in favour of holding elections by December. Another poll published by Ethnos showed 45 per cent support for a coalition and 42 per cent for a snap election. 土曜日に公表された二つの世論調査では即時の選挙よりも連立政権に支持が多い。Proto Themaの調査では選挙支持が36%、コンセンサス政府樹立が 52%、Ethnos の調査では選挙支持が42%、連立政権支持が45%であった。