New cracks have begun to show in President Obama’s support amongst African Americans, who have been his strongest supporters. Five months ago, 83 percent of African Americans held “strongly favorable” views of Obama, but in a new Washington Post-ABC news poll that number has dropped to 58 percent. That drop is similar to slipping support for Obama among all groups. ワシントン・ポストとABCの行った世論調査で、黒人層のオバマ大統領への好感度が低下し始めていることが解った。黒人層は従来 オバマ大統領のもっとも堅固な支持基盤であった。「強い好感度をもつ」と答えた人は5ヶ月前は83%であったが、今回の調査では 58%に低下した。
“There is a certain amount of racial loyalty and party loyalty, but eventually that was going to have to weaken,” said Andra Gillespie, a political scientist at Emory University, who studies African Americans. “It’s understandable given the economy.” Emory大学で黒人層と政治について研究しているAndra Gillespieは、これについて「人種に起因するオバマ大統領へのロイヤリティ というのは、かなりのものがあるのだがそれも時によっては弱体化し得る」という。「今回の結果は経済の状況を鑑みれば理解でき るものといえる」(後略)
WASHINGTON?Critical differences between European leaders threatened to stymie efforts to combat the euro zone's debt woes, despite mounting international pressure to contain a broadening crisis.
WASHINGTON?China to Europe: Don't expect a bailout from us. That was the message delivered by a number of Chinese officials during meetings at the International Monetary Fund, where China was widely seen as an answer to the euro zone's problems, either as a purchaser of European debt or as a country that could further goose its economic growth rate. "We can't just go save someone," said Gao Xiqing, president of China Investment Corp., China's huge sovereign wealth fund. "We're not saviors. We have to save ourselves," he said at a weekend panel discussion(ry
ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204422404576592110959831664.html How Beijing Missed an Opportunity in Libya By STEVE TSANG SEPTEMBER 26, 2011 Greater cooperation and a dose of transparency would have put minds at ease about China's rise. 中国のリビア外交の失敗:もし中国が国際社会とより良く協調し透明性の高い行動を取っていれば中国の台頭を助けた事であろうに By STEVE TSANG(Nottingham大学・中国政策研究所教授) WSJ 寄稿評論 26日
But China instead played a double game. It reached out to the Libyan rebels' National Transitional Council, yet continued to covertly arm Gadhafi's regime. All the while, Chinese policy makers publicly clung to their traditional policy of non-intervention in the "internal affairs" of other countries. The double dealing was exposed after Gadhafi abandoned Tripoli. 中国はリビアの反政府勢力NTCに接触していたが、二股作戦をとっていてカダフィ政権には秘密の武器供与を続けた。その一方で公的 には中国外交部はどの国に対しても内政不干渉の原則を言いつのった。この二枚舌行動はカダフィ政権の崩壊後に明らかになった(後略)
Unfortunately, European policy makers seem determined to deny those debtors the environment they need. ・・・ As a result, the market now expects very low inflation in Germany ? around 1 percent over the next five years ? which implies significant deflation in the debtor nations. This will both deepen their slumps and increase the real burden of their debts, more or less ensuring that all rescue efforts will fail.
And I see no sign at all that European policy elites are ready to rethink their hard-money-and-austerity dogma.
LONDON (MarketWatch) ? European stock markets rose Monday as banks stocks rebounded in a volatile trading session, while miners posted heavy losses as commodity prices sank. The Stoxx Europe 600 index XX:SXXP +1.81% rose 0.3% in morning trading, having slumped more than 6% in the previous week amid continuing worries over Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. 欧州市場は銀行株が上昇して、全体として指標はプラス領域だが、コモディティの金や銀の相場が下落し、鉱山株が下落している。 ユーロ600指数は先週6%以上下落した後、今日は1.8%上昇し、不安定な様子を示している。
Both stocks had dropped around 5% shortly after markets opened before bouncing higher as traders reacted to reports that European officials are debating ways to boost the firepower of their bailout fund, which could include moves to recapitalize the banking sector. BNPパリバとクレディアグリコルは市場の開始時に5%程下落したが、EU高官がユーロ圏救済基金の拡大強化を議論しているとの報道の あとで上昇に転じた。それらの構想では銀行の資本強化が図られると予想される。(後略)
There might have been nothing concrete from the IMF meeting in Washington over the weekend, but the outline of a plan to rescue the Eurozone and its banks was sketched out. 週末のワシントンではIMF総会に際してユーロ圏の救済策が話し合われたが、確固たる政策はまだ示されていない。しかしその 方向のスケッチは現れてきている
- There would be a haircut or writedown of Greek sovereign debt of 50 per cent. The country would also stay in the eurozone. ギリシャ負債のヘアカット50%くらい、ギリシャはユーロを離脱しない
- A plan to recapitalise Europe’s banks 欧州の銀行の資本強化を図る
- And most intriguingly, a proposal to increase the size of the ?440bn European financial stability facility (EFSF) by linking up with the ECB. One proposal is that the EFSF will backstop 20 per cent of any losses that the ECB makes on its purchases, to provide some ?2,200bn of firepower. Now that’s a lot ammo. もっとも興味深い点であるEFSFの、4400億ユーロの増強提案。ある提案ではECBがユーロ圏諸国の債券購入で被る損失の20%までを EFSFが補強する。それにより2.2兆ユーロのECBの余力が生まれる。これは大きな戦力になる。
Easier said than done of course. And critically it all boils down whether Germany and EU law allow the ECB to effectively finance budgets, says Harvinder Sian of RBS. しかし、これは提案することは実施に比べて容易いというもので、この提案のポイントはECBの救済能力拡大をドイツやEUの法律が 認めるのか、という点にかかっているとRBSのHarvinder Sianは言っている(後略)
Ed Yardeni laid out their recent history in a note this morning: So what exactly is Plan C? It’s reportedly a ?2 trillion package largely concocted by the US Treasury, in cooperation with the European Commission, and is being pushed on Germany by US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner. According to this so-called “Geithner Plan,” the ?440 billion EFSF will be “leveraged” to ?2 trillion to cope with Italy and Spain. Yesterday’s Telegraph.com reported that the fund will assume an “equity” stake of 20% or so in holdings of EMU debt, supported by loans of 80% from the ECB. Greece would be allowed to default on 50% of its debt. Some undercapitalized commercial banks might be seized, and most would recapitalized by the EFSF. プランCと言われている(プランAとプランBは既に失敗)ものはアメリカ財務省のガイトナーがドイツに押し付けようとしているもので 4400億ユーロのEFSFの強化により、これをレバレッジして2兆ユーロの(ECBからの)イタリアとスペイン向けの救済資金にするという ものでガイトナー・プラントも言われる。ローンの80%はECB拠出で、20%分をEFSFがエクイティのように保持する。ギリシャの債務は 50%のヘアカットし、資本不足に陥った銀行を公的管理し、主としてEFSFにより資本強化する。
The plan is reminiscent of the US government’s response to the financial crisis following the collapse of Lehman. During October 2008, TARP funds were used to recapitalize US banks. Also during that month, the FDIC implemented its Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program. It guaranteed newly issued senior unsecured debt of banks, thrifts, and certain holding companies, and provided full coverage of non-interest bearing deposit transaction accounts, regardless of dollar amount. この計画は2008年リーマンショックの金融危機時の米国政府のTARP資金で銀行救済を行ったのに類似する。この時にはFDICが一時的な 流動性保障プログラムを行った。このプログラムでは銀行のシニア債券を保証し金利なしの預金口座の全面カバーなどを進めた。
On Sunday, Klaus Regling, chief executive of the EFSF, told a podium discussion that “there are serious concerns” that such a scheme wouldn’t be allowed under the EU Treaty, which forbids the ECB from financing governments directly. This morning’s WSJ reports that German officials say the idea is moot as long as the ECB continues to reject it. Germany’s parliament is due to vote on the July 21 package on September 29. By pushing for a more radical revamp of the EFSF, Geithner risks increasing the hostility of German lawmakers and voters to more bailout aid for euro members. この計画についてEFSFのKlaus Reglingは、ECBが政府に直接の金融支援をすることはEUの条約で禁じられていると述べている。 ドイツ議会は9月29日に7月21日救済パッケージの投票を行う予定で、ガイトナー計画はドイツの有権者や議会との紛糾を招く恐れがある
>>255 (続き) Hopes for the plan seem to be having some positive effect today, with Europe’s STOXX 50 index up 2.1%, Germany’s DAX up 2.9%, France’s CAC 40 up 1.8% and Italy’s FTSE MIB up 3.3%. European sovereign-debt spreads are narrower across the board. And of course US stocks are jumping. この計画が報じられDAXは2.9%上昇し、CAC40は1.8%、イタリアのFTSE MIBは3.3%上昇した。ユーロ圏諸国の国債スプレッドが低下し アメリカ株式も上昇した。
You may be shocked to hear, however, that there is still a great deal of skepticism that all is again solved, or at least effectively delayed, in Europe. しかしながらこの計画には、依然として多くの批判がある。
“We continue to remain skeptical that any effort short of a massive and open-ended easing by the ECB will be capable of sustainably turning the tide in the eurozone,” writes Michael Darda of MKM Partners. MKMパートナーズのMichael Dardaは「ECBの制約なしの大型融資によってユーロ圏の問題を継続的に反転させることがでいるとは思わ ない」という
“So far, any analysis of the details of the situation has led to the obvious conclusion that the plan doesn’t work, and that conclusion has turned out to be correct,” writes Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors. TF Market AdvisorsのPeter Tchirは「詳細の検討によって、この計画が機能するとは思えないという結論に至った」という(ry
European officials are working on a scheme to build a special purpose vehicle that would lever up existing EFSF money 8 to 1 to buy up European sovereign debt and then issue bonds, CNBC is reporting. Naturally, stocks are through the roof on this. Because what could possibly go wrong with an SPV? Or a CDO-squared, as Zero Hedge called it? ヨーロッパの官僚たちがユーロ負債危機の救済のためEFSFを1:8でレバレッジするSPVを作るべく計画中とCNBCが報じた。ユーロ周辺 国の国債を買い入れ、債券を発行する。これについて金融ブログのゼロヘッジはCDO-squaredと呼ぶべきではと言っているが。
The Dow is up 14o points, though it has come off the boil a bit since the anonymously sourced report on CNBC a few minutes ago. the S&P is up 8 points. The Nasdaq is down 12. The VIX is still above 41 points. Not everybody is convinced all is well, apparently. このニュースがCNBCで流れS&Pは8ポイント上昇、NASDAQは12ポイント下落、VIXは依然として41と高い
ダウは272ポイント上げるという結果になったのだけれど、WSJはこの日の市場についてコメントして ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It would be disingenuous to suggest these gains were fueled by any real tangible progress on the European debt mess; multiple sharp spikes higher during the day suggest a combination of short covering, end-of-month portfolio window dressing and dead-cat bounce. 今日のラリーが欧州負債危機の解決の為の実効的な進歩があったため、とすることは正直ではないだろう。この日の市場に見られる 複数個のシャープなスパイクの多さは、ショートカバー(空売りの買戻し)や月末のウインドウドレッシング、そしてデッド・キャ ット・バウンスを示唆している。
More tests are on the way this week, including tomorrow’s Greek Parliament vote on property taxes, part of its latest austerity push. 今週には更にテストがある。明日にはギリシャ議会で不動産税や緊縮財政についての投票がある。 Don’t Call It (Much of) A Comeback SEPTEMBER 26, 2011, 4:29 PM ET (カムバックというには早い鴨)WSJマーケットビート ttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/26/dont-call-it-much-of-a-comeback/?mod=WSJBlog
* Ruling party lawmakers set to approve new property taxt 与党は不動産税法案を議会で可決のみこみ * Vote scheduled at about 1600 GMT 議会での投票は16:00GMT * Finmin to hold 0900 GMT news conference 財務大臣の記者会見は09:00GMT * Buses, metro, tax collectors on strike バス、地下鉄、税務署がストライキ決行 * Most Greeks think austerity unnecessary but will still pay taxes - poll 多くのギリシャ国民は緊縮財政法案は不要と思っているが増税は致し方ないとする
"I believe that the government is not going to face serious problems in parliament. (Ruling party) PASOK lawmakers are going to vote," said Costas Panagopoulos, at ALCO pollsters. "They are unhappy, but it is very difficult for anyone to say no because it would probably cause the government to break down." The government's majority has fallen to 154 out of parliament's 300 seats after one deputy was expelled from the party for voting against a previous austerity package in June. ALCOの世論調査担当Costas Panagopoulosは「政府は議会での法案通過にそれほどの困難はないと思う」という
【9月26日 AFP】米カリフォルニア大学バークレー校(University of California at Berkeley)の 共和党学生部(Campus Republican)の学生たちが、購入者の人種や性別によって商品の値段が違う ベイクセール(手作りケーキなどのバザー)を計画したところ、人種差別的だとして脅迫まで起きる騒ぎになっている。
Shen Jun, 23, who was in the first coach of the train that collided, said "blood was everywhere." "Many people were hurt. Look at the blood on me, on my arm," pointing at patches of blood on his shirt.
In the short run it is unlikely that Germany (and northern Europe in general) will put up more money. The Germans are upset at being asked to support countries that do not seem to want to adjust ? unlike Germany, which is now competitive because it endured the pains of reform. The unwillingness of the Greek rich to pay taxes, or of Italian parliamentarians to cut their own perks, confirms their worst fears.
The only glimmer of hope during the meetings in Washington came with Europe’s willingness to use the European financial stability facility more imaginatively ? as equity, for example, or as first-loss insurance for investors. Clearly, some EFSF funding must go to recapitalise banks that cannot raise money from the markets. But of the rest, the amount not committed to the peripheral economies could then be used to support borrowing by Italy and Spain.
Michio Kaku, theoretical physics professor at City College of New York, discusses the implications of a recent experiment that undercuts Einstein's theory of relativity. アインシュタインは誤りか? 弦理論の加來道雄氏のコメンタリー(英語)
FTアルファビレのコメント ttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/09/27/686896/schaeuble-says/ There is a bit of debate here on second-guessing what the German finance minister “really” means about expanding the EFSF. That is, Schaeuble might be ruling out an increase in the volume of EFSF guarantees, but he would “really” tolerate levering its resources. 財務相発言の真意をめぐって議論があり、EFSF拡大保障へのコミットメントを避けるものの、その利用は許容するのでは、など
Thus allowing the bailout to roll on. つまりEFSFによる救済は許容と・・ We’re not convinced. Under most proposals, the EFSF does have to provide further capital in order to provide a “safe” basis for levering assets into sufficient firepower, in addition to all the other tasks now being chucked at it. Which implies a capital increase. Above all, the comments above about monetary policy not being a “European way” (nonsensical as it seems, this is what Schaeuble really seems to think) suggest that the German government really will not tolerate levering EFSF resources via the ECB. EFSFはその資本拡大なしには充分安全に救済資金を提供できないとFTアルファビレは考え、ドイツ財務相はEFSF資金によるECB経由 の救済資金提供を許容しないという意味のものと考える
A 2008 report by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration reported that in 2007, while the average subsidy per megawatt hour for all energy sources was $1.65, the subsidy for wind and solar was about $24 per megawatt hour.
Daniel Kish, senior vice president for policy at the Institute for Energy Research, told Cybercast News Service that "without government subsidies or mandates, none of these energy sources exist, they just simply won't ... these energy sources are not as efficient as the sources of energy that the marketplace has picked and the consumers have picked to run the country."
?Wednesday, Sept. 28: The troika return to Athens to continue assessing Greece’s progress in cutting its budget deficit. The talks are crucial, because without the 8-billion-euro bailout payment the country runs a high risk of going bust. Finland is due to vote on changes to the EFSF. ギリシャとトロイカの協議、フィンランド議会のEFSF投票 ?Thursday, Sept. 29: Germany’s and Estonia’s parliaments are due to vote on EFSF changes. Spanish banks face a deadline to meet new capitalization requirements. ドイツとエストニア議会でEFSFの投票、スペイン銀行の資本強化締め切り ?Friday, Sept. 30: Austria votes on increasing the country’s share of contribution to the EFSF. オーストリア議会EFSF投票 ?Early October: Dutch parliament votes changes to the EFSF. オランダ議会EFSF投票
?Monday, Oct. 3: The meeting of euro-zone finance ministers. Markets expected this meeting to yield a decision on Greece’s next aid tranche, but officials have sought to dismiss this. National and regional purchasing managers manufacturing data for September will highlight to extent to which the euro zone’s debt crisis is spilling over into the real economy and increasing the risk of a euro-zone recession. ユーロ圏財務相会議、PMI製造業の公表 ?Tuesday, Oct. 4: European Union finance ministers meeting. Euro-zone unemployment data for September. ユーロ圏財務相会議、ユーロ圏失業率公表 ?Wednesday, Oct. 5: National and regional purchasing managers’ index for the services sector for September. PMIサービス業の公表 ?Thursday, Oct. 6: ECB rate decision, outgoing ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet’s last press meeting in this role. Spain issues April 2014 bonds. France issues long-term bonds. ECB金利会議、スペインとフランスで国債オークション ?Tuesday, Oct. 11: Greek and Italian T-bill auctions. ギリシャとイタリアの国債オークション ?Thursday, Oct. 13: Italian bond auction. イタリアの国債オークション ?Friday, Oct. 14-Saturday, Oct. 15: G-20 finance ministers meeting. G20財務相会議
ttp://chinadigitaltimes.net/2011/09/shanghai-metro-crash-injures-more-than-200/ Update 10 [6:11pm]: According to multiple Chinese sources, Shanghai CASCO Signal Corporation (上海??柯信号有限公司), the company that provided signals for Line 10, also provided the signal technology involved in the Wenzhou rail disaster. (h/t to @MrBaoPanrui) 今回の地下鉄の信号機故障について、其の製造メーカーShanghai CASCO Signal Corporation (上海??柯信号有限公司)というのは さきの中国高速鉄道の追突事故に関連した信号機故障を起こした機器のメーカーであるとの複数の情報がある
A split has opened in the eurozone over the terms of Greece’s second ?109bn bail-out with as many as seven of the bloc’s 17 members arguing for private creditors to swallow a bigger writedown on their Greek bond holdings, according to senior European officials. The divisions have emerged amid mounting concerns that Athens’ funding needs are much bigger than estimated just two months ago. They threaten to unpick a painfully negotiated deal reached with private sector bond holders in July. EU高官に依ればギリシャへの1090億ユーロの救済策をめぐるEU諸国間の対立が顕著となった。民間の国債保有者(=銀行など)がより 大きな負担をすべきとの議論が持ち上がっている。7月に合意された民間のギリシャ国債保有者との債券の借り換えに関わるもの。
While hardliners in Germany and the Netherlands are leading the calls for more losses to be imposed on the private sector, France and the European Central Bank are fiercely resisting any such move. They fear re-opening the bond deal could spark renewed selling of shares in European banks, which have significant holdings of Greek and other peripheral eurozone debt. 民間の国債保有者により大きな負担を求めるドイツやオランダの強硬派と、フランスおよびECBの、それに反対する勢力が対立している。 ギリシャ債券の借り換えに関わる再度の交渉の起こることを恐れて欧州の銀行の株式が値下がりしかねない。(略)
Berlin is expected to back the disbursement eventually. But a senior official said some German policymakers then want the banks to take a larger haircut on their bond holdings or renegotiate bond swaps, reflecting the sharp fall in Greek bond values since July. Under the terms of the July bail-out, bondholders agreed to trade about ?135bn in bonds that come due through 2020 for new, European Union-backed bonds that would not be repaid for decades. This deal implied a haircut of 21 per cent for bondholders, but many German officials say they were forced to agree a deal that was too beneficial for the banks. 7月に合意されたギリシャ国債を保有する銀行とのEUの保障する債券へのスワップは1350億ユーロの債権が21%のヘアカットに相当 するが、ドイツの高官はより大きなヘアカットを望み、7月の合意への不満を口にしている。(略)
Here’s yet more good news for Democrats. National Journal reports: 民主党員にとってたのすいニュースがある One of the Democratic party’s leading pollsters [Stanley Greenberg] released a survey of 60 Republican-held battleground districts today, painting an ominous picture for congressional Democrats in 2012. The poll shows Democratic House candidates faring worse than they did in the 2010 midterms, being dragged down by an unpopular president who would lose to both Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. 民主党の世論調査機関の公表した、共和党の占めている60激戦区の世論調査に依れば2012年の大統領選挙にともなう下院の選挙では 民主党下院議員候補は2010年の中間選挙以上に厳しい状況に直面する。オバマ大統領の不評がひとつの要因である。
When voters were asked whether they’re supporting the Republican incumbent or a Democratic candidate, 50 percent preferred the Republican and just 41 percent backed the Democrat. And here’s the really ominous news for Democrats: Voters in these districts said they were more supportive of Republicans than they were during the 2010 midterms, when 48 percent said they backed the Republican candidate and 42 percent said they backed the Democrat. (Republicans won 55 percent of the overall vote in these 60 battleground districts, while Democrats took 43 percent.) In 2010, Republicans netted 63 House seats ? their best showing since 1948. この調査で、現行の共和党下院議員と民主党の挑戦者のいずれを支持するかをたずねたところ、共和党支持=50%、民主党支持=41%で 大きな差がある。これらの地区の有権者は2010年中間選挙当時よりも更に共和党支持に傾いている。
There’s also this: President Obama’s job approval rating in the battleground districts is just 41 percent ? and only 43 percent in the 30 more competitive seats that are a little more Democratic. これら激戦区のオバマ大統領支持率は41%、いくらか民主党よりの30の選挙区でも43%に過ぎない
What this means is right now, based on the data of a respected Democratic pollster, Democrats would ? if the election were held today ? suffer a wipeout that makes what happened to them in 2010 look like a walk in the park. And things are likely to get worse, not better, as the months roll on. このデータの意味するところは、もし今選挙をやれば2010年中間選挙の時以上に、民主党候補がワイプアウトサれてしまうということで あり、さらに今後の情勢の見通しも、民主党にとって不利になると見られる。
It may be that Barack Obama will do to the Democratic Party what no one, not even Ronald Reagan, could achieve?which is to bring it to its knees. バラク・オバマはレーガンでさえ成し得なかった大きな成果を上げつつあって、つまり民主党に大打撃を与えつつ有る。
The political controversy over the U.S. government’s loan guarantee supporting the once-promising California solar start-up Solyndra has severely dampened enthusiasm for cleantech subsidies in the United States. The same cannot be said for China. But that may soon change. Mercom Capital Group, an Austin, TX-based clean-energy consulting firm, reported earlier this week that state-owned Chinese banks have agreed to loan nearly $41 billion to Chinese solar companies since last year. By contrast, the U.S. government loan guarantee for Solyndra was a mere $500 million. アメリカ政府が破産した太陽光パネル・メーカーのソリンドラに融資保証した$500Mが、政治的物議を醸しているのだが、中国では 経済刺激政策のもと国有銀行から巨額のローンが太陽光パネル・メーカーに支出されている。テキサス州のエネルギー関連コンサル ティング会社であるMercom Capital Groupの報告に依れば、2010年から今年にかけて中国の国有銀行が太陽光パネル・メーカーに融 資した資金は$41Bにのぼる。
These loans are offered at below-market interest rates and are issued without expectation of repayment. China’s banks built up a vast portfolio of nonperforming loans during the 1990s as a result of this practice. China subsequently has managed to recapitalize many of the banks that had devoted so much of their capital to unsecured and risky loans, but that free money has contributed to China’s favored industries and made some of them even more formidable competitors. The Chinese government’s new stimulus plan is directing state banks once again to make questionable loans to state-owned companies.
The report from the Kaiser Family Foundation, which found that the cost of employer-provided family plans increased by 9 percent to an average of $15,073 in 2011, put the White House on defense a day after it became more likely that the Supreme Court will hear a challenge to the law before the 2012 election. Kaiser Family Foundationの公表した調査報告書に依れば、雇用者の提供する勤労家庭のための医療保険費用が2011年に9%上昇し 平均$15,073となった。この報告は(オバマ医療改革で保険費用は低下するとしてきた)ホワイトハウスを防衛的にしていて、 裁判所で医療改革の合憲性の争われる見込みが高くなっているおりからも、防衛の意味がある。
It showed healthcare costs are rising much faster than U.S. wages and salaries or the rate of inflation. The steep costs could put an extra pinch on households struggling through an extended housing crisis and high unemployment. Republicans were quick to point out that President Obama during his presidential campaign made the ill-conceived promise that health reform would lower premiums by $2,500. 医療保険費用の上昇速度は給与の上昇率やインフレ率よりも高いものになっている。高い失業率に脅かされる勤労家庭にとって医療 保険費用の上昇はさらなる負担となる。共和党はオバマ大統領が医療改革で保険費用を$2500低下させることができるとしてきた事 をとらえて攻撃を強めている(後略)
Trader Alessio Rastani explains how Goldman Sachs rule the world, not the governments. He explains how the Eurozone crash will wipe out the savings of millions. He states Goldman Sachs rule the world, not our governments - something the BBC did not expect him to say.
FTに書いている英国のエコノミスト、Gavyn Daviesの解説。比較的によくまとまっている評論と思える(恣意的な要約) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2011/09/28/leveraging-the-efsf-is-attractive-but-risky/#axzz1ZGUiGW5n Leveraging the EFSF is attractive, but risky September 28, 2011 2:10 pm by Gavyn Davies ユーロ圏救済のためのEFSFをレバレッジして使うやり方は魅力的だが、リスキーでもある Gavyn Davies FT、28日
The use of Other People’ s Money is always appealing, which is why the option of leveraging the EFSF has been put on the table. But it is inescapable that upside and downside risks would both increase, as always happens when leverage is used. Germany still looks very reluctant to assume these risks.
The BIG surprises here are 1) the breadth of new products (four); 2) the aggressiveness/ attractiveness of the price points ($79 and $199 were materially lower than expected); & 3) the quality of the products (touchscreen capability for the Kindle ereaders and the dual core processor and IPS screen technology for the Fire tablet) We had assumed that AMZN would be aggressive with pricing, but not THIS aggressive.
Hudson Square’s Daniel Ernst writes that the Fire could take a chunk of the consumer market away from Apple’s iPad:(ry
You know you have made it in the world today when you are immortalized in Taiwanese animation. Well, Alessio Rastani, your moment has arrived. Mr. Rastani, now known for some reason as the “trader from hell,” made heads explode around the world recently by saying some fairly obvious things, the sorts of things geniuses like John Paulson and Goldman Sachs have been saying for years ? namely, that global financial markets are in trouble, and there’s a way to make money from that. In the new Next Media Animation reenactment of Mr. Rastani’s wild ride to Internet stardom, heads explode and Goldman Sachs ninjas commit murder. I apologize in advance.
各国対外資産負債残高のリスト(対GDP比) List of countries by net international investment position (NIIP)
対外資産負債残高 = 対外債権 - 対外債務
Hong Kong +353.1 Austria -0.5 Singapore +224.2 Chile -4.9 Republic of China +153.3 Canada -7.8 Switzerland +136.1 Philippines -10.2 Luxembourg +84.6 India -10.3 Norway +79.3 France -10.9 Japan +56.1 Eurozone -11.4 Belgium +45.0 United Kingdom -13.1 Germany +37.3 United States -17.0 People's Republic of China +37.1 South Korea -17.8 Netherlands +29.3 Sweden -22.2 Russia +17.9 Italy -24.3 Malta +13.6 Slovenia -35.1 Finland +8.7 Mexico -36.5 Denmark +6.0 Brazil -37.5 Israel +0.04 Kazakhstan -38.1 Turkey -44.9 Australia -61.0 Poland -63.0 Estonia -71.8 Greece -83.1 New Zealand -90.1 Spain -93.6 Ireland -97.8 Portugal -108.5
<今日のNYSE> ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204138204576598352663734780.html?mod=WSJ_Markets_LEFTTopStories "Whenever the stock market is driven more by emotions and hope than fundamentals, you're likely to see sentiment change quickly," said Kate Warne, investment strategist for retail-investor brokerage firm Edward Jones in St. Louis. セントルイスの証券会社Edward Jones の投資ストラテジスト、Kate Warneが今日の市場にコメントして「株式市場がファンダメン タルズではなく、(欧州負債危機の救済の)希望や感情で動くような時には、センチメントは急速に変化する」
全体の状況は: If Republicans were to sweep the tossups, they would have a 55-45 majority, tying them for their largest advantage since 1928. With a large number of Democrats up for re-election in 2014, many of whom occupy seats in red states, that would probably give Republicans working control of the chamber. For right now, though, it is safe to say that Republicans are favored to take control of the Senate. A seat-by-seat analysis follows:(後略)
By a 51 percent to 43 percent margin, Ohio voters say the president does not deserve to be re-elected. Again, he struggles among independents: 53 percent don’t want to give him a second term while 37 percent do.
Obama’s numbers look similar in Pennsylvania, a state he won by 10 points in 2008. Voters there disapprove of the job he is doing as president, 54 percent to 43 percent. Independents there disapprove, 57 percent to 41 percent.
The global financial crisis changed all that. Suddenly policymakers were hit by anaemic demand and de-leveraging. Currency depreciation became a useful tool for boosting competitiveness and reducing real wages and real asset prices through imported inflation. グローバル金融危機は全てのルールを変えた。突然のことに政策担当者は貧血性の需要とデレバレッジの要請を受けた。通貨切り下げ がインフレの輸入を通じて、競争力の向上と実効賃金の切り下げ、実効資産価格の切り下げの有用なツールになった。
Countries that stuck to hard money orthodoxy were on the other side of that trade. Like the countries that stayed on the gold standard to the bitter end in the 1930s, they were importing deflation. ハードマネー正統派を標榜する国は、この反対側にいる。それは1930年台の金本位制崩壊のあともそれにこだわった国と同じで、そう いう国はデフレを輸入している。
Now only the yen remains in the hard money club. How long before it leaves too? Although the yen-franc cross-rate is roughly the same now as in 1971, the fundamentals of the yen are much better. Corporate Japan has lived with deflation for 15 years and learnt how to stay profitable by reducing wages and other costs 今やハードカレンシークラブに残るのは円のみである。後どのくらい、円はそこに居続けられるのだろう?円とスイス・フランのクロ スレートは1971と同じくらいだがファンダメンタルズは円が遥かによい。日本企業は過去15年間のデフレに耐えて賃金やその他のコス トを切り下げ、利益を生むように学習してきた。
Yet Japan’s deflation has insidious effects too. The erosion of tax revenues and the stagnation of nominal gross domestic product are the main factors behind the rise in government indebtedness. Workers bear the brunt of wage deflation and declining job security, while retirees enjoy a lower cost of living. それであっても、日本のデフレはじわじわと効いてくる効果があって税収の侵食とか名目GDPのスタグネーションとかが財政赤字拡大 の裏で進行する。年金生活者にとってはコストオブリビングが低くなるとしても勤労者は賃金のデフレと雇用の不安定化に直面する。
Japan can hardly let that pass. Pressure from business to intervene is sure to mount. The new Noda administration, otherwise bereft of growth policies, will be tempted to accede. But for intervention to be successful, Japan would need to go Swiss and subordinate monetary policy to its currency market goals. When that happens, the global retreat from hard money will be complete. Politically, there is no other way. House prices declining 15 per cent in soft money is always going to be more acceptable than a 60 per cent decline in hard money.
ttp://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64489.html No Rocky Mountain high for Barack Obama By GLENN THRUSH | 9/27/11 4:38 AM EDT Updated: 9/27/11 6:05 PM EDT コロラド州の世論調査:2008年当時とは様変わり、オバマ支持が減少している ポリティコ 27日
DENVER?Barack Obama scaled dizzying electoral heights in Colorado in 2008, pulling off a stunning nine-point win over John McCain in this once reliably red state. But three years later, he’s struggling to regain altitude.
Public sector workers staged symbolic takeovers of government ministries and state organisations in Athens on Thursday as heads of mission from the troika ? the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank ? resume discussions on the government’s latest attempt to put fiscal and structural reforms back on track. 木曜日にトロイカ(IMF、EU、ECB)の訪問団がギリシャ救済の協議でアテネを訪問する中、公共労組のデモ隊が政府庁舎を象徴的に占拠し 緊縮財政政策に抗議した
“We’ll be occupying the building continuously for the next 48 hours”, said a union official at the finance ministry where Evangelos Venizelos, the minister, was due to hold a first meeting with troika officials. 「政府庁舎を48時間占拠する」と労組の役員が財務省庁舎でいっている。
The union said it would hold a protest in central Athens and a march to parliament on Thursday evening. 労組は夕方にアテネ中心部で抗議集会を開き、議会にデモすると言っている(後略)
U.S. real gross domestic product for the second quarter was revised up to an annualized rate of 1.3% from 1%. Economists had expected the figure to be revised up to 1.2%. New applications for unemployment benefits fell 37,000 to 391,000 last week, marking the lowest level since April. Q2の実効GDPの改定値は、年率換算1%から1.3%に上昇(エコノミスト予想は1.2%)週間失業申請は4月以降の最低の391000(−37000)に;
With all of the world’s problems apparently solved, commodities are rebounding this morning. Nymex crude is up 2.5% to more than $83 a barrel, gold is up a bit to $1625 an ounce, silver is up 2% to $30.75 an ounce. 世界の全ての問題が解決されたかのごとく、今日はコモディティが一斉にうp NYMEX石油は2.5%↑、金は0.41%↑、銀は2%↑
But copper is up only by about a penny and has been darting in and out of negative territory, suggesting that maybe all is not well after all. でも銅については僅かの上昇でネガティブ領域に入ったりしているので、全てがOKともみえない
This morning’s big drop in jobless claims was encouraging, but may have been due to technical factors. 今日は週間失業申請数が大きく減少して市場が高騰したが、この減少はテクニカルな理由かもしれない
Gartner, a research firm, reckons that Apple will account for nearly three-quarters of the 64m tablets that it estimates will be sold this year. But if there is one company that can cause the denizens of Apple’s headquarters to lose some sleep at night it is undoubtedly Amazon. 市場調査会社のガートナーに依れば、今年販売される6400万台のタブレットの四分の三がアップルの製品である。もしもアップル本社 の夜の安眠を妨げる会社があるとすれば、それは疑いもなく、アマゾンである
Perhaps the Fire’s biggest advantage is access to Amazon's oodles of digital content, including over 100,000 movies and TV shows, over 17m songs and more than 1m e-books, all held in Amazon’s computing “cloud”. This cloud will also be helpful in other respects. The Fire has just eight gigabytes of memory (which helps keep down costs) because Amazon is assuming that people will keep most of their stuff in its free cloud service. And the Fire will take advantage of a novel technology called Amazon Silk, which uses the power of Amazon’s cloud-computing infrastructure to help make web-browsing faster, by reducing the amount of processing that needs to be done on the device itself. None of this makes the Fire a sure-fire success. But it does make it a credible pretender to the iPad’s throne. おそらくアマゾンの最大のアドバンテージはアマゾンの保有する豊富なディジタル・コンテンツへのアクセスであって、10万の映画と TVショー、1700万の歌曲、100万以上のe-booksがアマゾンのクラウドサービスで提供される。ファイアは8GBのメモリーを持つ のみだがアマゾンは利用者のほとんどが無料のクラウドサービスを使うと予想している。この場合、利用者側のデバイスの処理能力 は大きくなくともよい。勿論、こうした条件はアマゾンのファイアの成功を保証するものではないが、アップルのiPadの王座に対する 信頼性のある王位継承者とするものである。 ttp://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2011/09/amazons-new-tablet
Financial markets are driving the world towards another Great Depression with incalculable political consequences. The authorities, particularly in Europe, have lost control of the situation. They need to regain control and they need to do so now. 金融の世界が第二の大恐慌に向かっている。それは計算不可能な政治的悪影響を伴う。欧州政府は状況のコントロールを失っている。 諸政府は、今すぐ其のコントロールを再掌握しなければならない。
Three bold steps are needed. First, the governments of the eurozone must agree in principle on a new treaty creating a common treasury for the eurozone. In the meantime, the major banks must be put under European Central Bank direction in return for a temporary guarantee and permanent recapitalisation. The ECB would direct the banks to maintain their credit lines and outstanding loans, while closely monitoring risks taken for their own accounts. Third, the ECB would enable countries such as Italy and Spain to temporarily refinance their debt at a very low cost. These steps would calm the markets and give Europe time to develop a growth strategy, without which the debt problem cannot be solved.
The course of action outlined here does not require leveraging or increasing the size of the EFSF but it is more radical because it puts the banks under European control. That is liable to arouse the opposition of both the banks and the national authorities. Only public pressure can make it happen. このやり方はEFSFの拡大を要しない。しかし銀行を直接のEU管理下におくことで、よりラディカルである。これは銀行と政府の抵抗 が予想されるが公衆の圧力があれば実現できるだろう。
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has denied US media reports that he was rushed to hospital with kidney failure linked to his cancer treatment. "I'm fine, I'm having my first coffee of the day," Mr Chavez, 57, told state TV by telephone.
MATHEMATICS PRIZE: Dorothy Martin of the USA (who predicted the world would end in 1954), Pat Robertson of the USA (who predicted the world would end in 1982), Elizabeth Clare Prophet of the USA (who predicted the world would end in 1990), Lee Jang Rim of KOREA (who predicted the world would end in 1992), Credonia Mwerinde of UGANDA (who predicted the world would end in 1999), and Harold Camping of the USA (who predicted the world would end on September 6, 1994 and later predicted that the world will end on October 21, 2011), for teaching the world to be careful when making mathematical assumptions and calculations.
数学賞に世界は1992年に終わると予測した韓国のLee Jang Rim氏らが選出 数学的な条件設定や計算をする時には注意深くあらねばならないと世界に教えた功績
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) ? Shares of several high-end retail goods companies slumped Thursday in the U.S. and Europe on worries a worsening global economic climate could weaken Chinese appetite for premium branded products. 木曜日の欧米市場で、ハイエンド(ブランド品)小売業の株価が低下した。これはグローバル経済の悪化が中国市場でのプレミアム ブランド製品の売れ行き低迷につながるのではとの懸念による
The tumble came amid growing fears of a hard economic landing in China, which has emerged as a key driver of the world’s economy in the wake of the global financial crisis. この懸念は一部で囁かれる中国経済のハードランディングともあいまっている
The concerns circle around the possibility that China could face a sharp slowdown in exports in coming months, aggravating the headwinds facing the Asian country and dampening the nation’s demand for premium brands such as Louis Vuitton and Tiffany. 今後数カ月で中国の輸出が低迷する恐れが言われ、中国始めアジア諸国でのルイ・ヴィトンやティファニーなどのブランド品の需要に影響 が出ることを懸念している
“Fears of a hard landing in China have once again intensified. While our base case remains a soft landing led mainly by an investment slowdown, we see increasing downside risk from the situation in Europe and at home,” Barclays Capital economists led by Yiping Huang wrote in a report earlier this week. Barclays said hard-landing would be scenario in which the Chinese economic growth slows to between 5.5% to 6.5% in 2012. バークレィズキャピタルのエコノミスト Yiping Huangは今週報告書に「中国経済のハードランディングの恐怖が高まっている。我々の 基本シナリオはソフトランディングであるが、欧州と中国の状況悪化がダウンサイドリスクを高めている」と書いている。バークレィズ の言うハードランディングとは2012年の中国経済成長が5.5−6.5%に低下することである。
Shares of Tiffany & Co. TIF -skidded 6.9%, Coach Inc. COH dropped 6.1% and Ralph Lauren Corp. RL shed 2.6% in U.S. trading Thursday, even as the S&P 500 Index SPX +0.81% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +1.30% posted gains during the session. Read about U.S. stocks. 木曜日にアメリカ市場ではS&P 500指標が+0.81%、ダウ株式指標は+1.30% であったが、ティファニーは−6.9%、コーチは−6.1%、 ラルフローレンは−2.6%であった
Earlier in the day in Paris, shares of LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton FR:MC -5.15% LVMHF -5.38% sank 5.2% and Hermes International S.C.A. HESAF -5.65% FR:RMS -6.19% skidded 6.2%. Shares of Switzerland’s Swatch Group AG SWGAY -5.27% CH:UHR -5.80% , which owns several high-end watch brands including Omega, Breguet and Longines, dropped 5.8%. 前日の欧州市場でLVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuittonは−5.15%、エルメスは−5.65%、スオッチグループ(Omega、 Breguet、Longines を保有)は−5.27%(後略)
PRINCETON, NJ -- In thinking about the 2012 presidential election, 45% of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, while nearly as many, 44%, are less enthusiastic. This is in sharp contrast to 2008 and, to a lesser extent, 2004, when the great majority of Democrats expressed heightened enthusiasm about voting. 2012年大統領選挙について、民主党と無党派の民主党指示に傾斜する人たちの考えを聞くと、45%はいつもよりヤル気があり、44%が いつもより意気消沈と答えた。これは2008年や2004年に比べて民主党支持層の熱意が冷めていることを示している。
ギャラップ社の世論調査では、一時82%だったヒスパニックのオバマ氏支持率は8月に過去最低の48%に落ち込んだ。背景 にはヒスパニックが求め、オバマ氏が約束した包括的移民制度改革に進展がないことへの不満がある。ヒスパニックの失業率が 全米平均の9・1%を上回る11・3%に達していることも失望感を後押ししている。 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.texasinsider.org/?p=53710 Obama Goes from Hope to Nope on Immigration Reform By Brian Hughes Staff Writer
A recent Gallup poll shows that Obama’s support among Hispanics over the past 18 months has plummeted from 73 percent to 48 percent. “It’s a matter of enthusiasm and energy,” Barreto said. “If that disappears, he will still get the same percentage of the Latino vote ? there will just be fewer voters.”
Obama’s path to victory in swing states like Virginia, Florida, Colorado and Nevada certainly looks hazier without the overwhelming Hispanic support he received in 2008.
OIL5 and OIL6 are measured values of concentrations in food, milk or water that warrant the consideration of restrictions on consumption so as to keep the effective dose to any person below 10 mSv per annum.
金曜日発行のエコノミスト記事 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.economist.com/node/21530986 The world economy:Be afraid Oct 1st 2011 | from the print edition Unless politicians act more boldly, the world economy will keep heading towards a black hole 世界経済の現状:汝ら恐るべし 政治家たちがより大胆に行動しない限り、世界経済はブラックホールに向かったままだ エコノミスト、10月1日
Most of the blame for this should be heaped on the leaders of the euro zone, still the biggest immediate danger. The doom-laden lectures from the Americans and others in Washington last week did achieve something: Europe’s policymakers now recognise that more must be done. They are, at last, focusing on the right priorities: building a firewall around illiquid but solvent countries like Italy; bolstering Europe’s banks; and dealing far more decisively with Greece. 現状の問題を非難されるべきはユーロ圏の指導者たちで、それが依然として最大の直面する問題である。先週ワシントンで開かれた IMF総会での、差し迫る破滅を予告するがごときアメリカなどのお説教のお陰で、すこしばかりの進歩があって、ヨーロッパの 政策立案者等は、より努力の必要な事を認識した。少なくとも彼らは正しい優先順位にフォーカスしている。イタリアのような支払 い能力はあるが流動性に問題のある国のまわりに防火壁を築く事、ヨーロッパの銀行を補強すべき事、そして断固としてギリシャの 負債問題に取り組むこと。
Much of the world is now paying for their timidity: witness the increasingly dark economic backdrop. A slew of recent indicators suggests the euro area is slipping into recession, as Germany’s exports slow, the fiscal screws tighten, confidence slumps and the banks’ travails imply tighter credit. Even if the euro-zone crisis were to be solved tomorrow, the region’s GDP would probably shrink over the coming months. 事態の与える経済的悪影響を思いやって世界の多くの国が臆病になっている。最近のデータの示す所ではドイツの経済成長が鈍化し、 財政緊縮政策が取られ、経済の先行きへの信頼感が悪化して銀行はクレジットを引き締めているので、ユーロ圏はリセッションに陥 ろうとしている。たとえ、明日、ユーロ圏の危機が解消されたとしてもヨーロッパのGDPはこの先の何ヶ月か縮小することとなろう。
In the aftermath of the Lehman crisis, policymakers broadly did the right thing. The result was not a rapid return to prosperity in the West, but after such a big balance-sheet recession that was never going to happen. Now, more often than not, policymakers seem to be getting it wrong. Their mistakes vary, but two sorts stand out. One is an overwhelming emphasis on short-term fiscal austerity over growth. Fixing that means different things in different places: Germany could loosen fiscal policy, while in Britain the reins should merely be tightened more slowly. But the collective obsession with short-term austerity across the rich world is hurting. リーマン・ショックの時には政策立案者は大胆に行動して正しいことを行った。その結果は、迅速な繁栄への復帰ということにはなっ ていないが、かほど大きなバランスシートのリセッションの後では、そういうことは起こりようがない。今や政策立案者は思い違いを しているようであって、ひとつの問題は経済成長を犠牲にした短期的な財政緊縮政策へのゆき過ぎた傾斜である。ドイツは短期的な成 長促進のために財政政策を緩和することが出来よう。英国にあっては緊縮の速度を緩めるべきだ。
The second failure is one of honesty. Too many rich-world politicians have failed to tell voters the scale of the problem. In Germany, where the jobless rate is lower than in 2008, people tend to think the crisis is about lazy Greeks and Italians. Mrs Merkel needs to explain clearly that it also includes Germany’s own banks?and that Germany faces a choice between a costly solution and a ruinous one. In America the Republicans are guilty of outrageous obstructionism and misleading simplification, while Mr Obama has favoured class warfare over fiscal leadership. At a time of enormous problems, the politicians seem Lilliputian. That’s the real reason to be afraid. 第二の問題点は正直さの欠如である。多くの先進国の政治家が有権者に問題の程度を正しく知らせていない。ドイツにおいては失業率 が2008年当時を下回っているが人々は怠け者のギリシャ人やイタリア人が問題だと見なす傾向にある。メルケル首相は国民に、ギリシャ などの負債問題はドイツの銀行の問題でもあり、ドイツはお金のかかる解決策かあるいは破滅的な政策かのどちらかを選択しなければ いけない事を説明すべきだ。アメリカに於いては共和党が過度な単純化と破壊主義(で政府の財政赤字を攻撃する事)で有罪である一方、 オバマ大統領は財政赤字問題で階級闘争(金持ちVS一般国民という階級闘争的トーンの富裕層への増税政策など)を持ち出している。 巨大な経済問題のある現時点で、政治家は小人のよう(に無力)にみえる。それこそが、我らの、次を恐るべき理由である。
While we will likely have to endure a few more months of price declines, a definitive bottom in home sales and new home construction appears to have taken hold. Sales of new homes appear to have bottomed at around a 300,000-unit pace, and existing home sales have perked up a bit as lenders have become a bit more aggressive in terms of clearing out foreclosures in many parts of the country. We expect home prices to decline a bit further, as foreclosures and distressed transactions account for a larger proportion of overall sales later this year and in early 2012. (ry
Consumer Reports has wrapped up its five-month road test of the 2011 Nissan Leaf and reports the electric hatch scored 78 points. That puts the EV into the middle of six recently tested fuel-efficient hatchbacks. The Leaf ranked two points shy of the Toyota Prius and 11 points above the Chevrolet Volt. Meanwhile, the Hyundai Sonata Hybrid scored a disappointing 69, 20 points below the conventional Sonata GLS. コンシューマー・リポート誌は日産リーフの評価を78ポイントとした。これはプリウスより2点下で、GMのボルトより11点上の評価。 またヒュンダイ・ソナタ・ハイブリッドは69で従来型のソナタGLSより20点下の評価とした。
Of the Leaf, Consumer Reports states: The Leaf is a civilized vehicle with very low running costs. It's quick, very quiet, rides comfortably and is easy to get in and out of. The Leaf's main drawbacks are a limited driving range of only about 75 miles per charge. The Leaf rides well but handling, though secure, lacks agility. Braking is Very Good. The interior is nicely finished but not posh. As we all know and CR proved once again, the Leaf's range varies dramatically depending on driving style and weather conditions. For example, CR discovered that, under gentle driving conditions, the Leaf averaged 90 miles on a full charge. But in cold weather, CR's testers report the range dropped to approximately 60 miles. It's for this reason that CR refers to the Leaf as an urban runabout. コンシューマー・リポート誌はリーフを使いやすい車としたが電池容量の制限からくる75マイルという制限が大きいとした。また敏捷さ に欠ける面があり、走行可能距離はドライビング・スタイルや天候に左右されるという。
In terms of efficiency, the tested Leaf returned 3.16 miles per kWh, or the equivalent of 106 miles per gallon in mixed driving. The operating costs for CR's Leaf rang in at approximately 3.5 cents per mile, as figured at average national electricity rates of 11 cents per kWh. With reliability of the Nissan Leaf still unknown, CR has decided it can't put its Recommended tag on the electric hatch. 燃費についてはコンシューマー・リポートはキロワット時あたり3.16マイル、ガロンあたり換算で106マイルとした。ランニングコスト は1マイルあたり3.5セントとしている。同雑誌はリーフの信頼性が今の時点で不明なのでリコメンデッドの評価を与えることはしない としている。
Repeat after me: THERE WILL BE NO FISCAL UNION. THERE WILL BE NO EUROBONDS. THERE WILL BE NO DEBT POOL. THERE WILL BE NO EU TREASURY. THERE WILL BE NO FISCAL TRANSFERS IN PERPETUITY. THERE WILL BE A STABILITY UNION ? OR NO MONETARY UNION.
“All I heard was Germany, Germany, Germany. There was nothing about Europe. It was astonishing,” said Myron Scholes, the winner of the 1997 Nobel Prize. Indeed it was. Fellow laureate Joe Stiglitz said that if President Wulff’s views reflected the outlook of the German government, monetary union would have collapsed already.
What’s hitting emerging market currencies today? A better question is what isn’t hitting emerging market currencies today. A drop in US personal income, worrisome numbers out of China, an ongoing eurozone sovereign debt crisis, falling US stocks, jitters about slowing global growth, slipping commodity prices, the prospect of central bank monetary policy easing ? you name it. 途上国通貨に今何が影響しているのかというと、より良い質問は途上国通貨に影響していないものは何があるのかというものである。 アメリカの消費者の個人収入低下、中国経済の減速を伺わせる懸念すべきデータ、ユーロ圏のソブリン負債危機、アメリカ株式の低落、 グローバル経済成長の神経質な動き、コモディティ価格の凋落、中央銀行のマネタリ政策の変更、影響を与えている要素は数多い。
This is the laundry list of factors dragging down emerging-market currencies. “It’s really a question of confidence here in the more developed markets. This is an external phenomenon,” says Bulltick Research’s Kathryn Rooney Vera. Latin American and commodity-linked currencies are getting hit especially hard. それらの要因が途上国通貨を切り下げている。結局のところそれは信頼感の問題であり、それは外部的事象だ、とBulltick研究所の Kathryn Rooney Veraが言う。ラテン・アメリカやコモディティ依存の国の通貨が特に強く影響を受けている
The Brazilian real is down about 2.7% on the day against the USD, according to CQG, while the Mexican peso and South African rand are down about 1% against the dollar. And with developed markets’ woes in the driving seat, emerging markets may not get a break any time soon, analysts say. ブラジルのリアルは対ドルで今日、−2.7%であり、メキシコのペソや南アメリカのランドは1%程度下げている。先進国の諸問題が 煩わしくも議論されている中で、途上国はドライビング・シートにいないからといって休息を取るというわけにはゆかない、とアナ リストが言っている。 ttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/30/emerging-market-currencies-caught-in-global-crossfire/?mod=WSJBlog
ttp://www.gci-klug.jp/fxnews/detail.php?id=124743 モルガンスタンレーは10%下落し、2008年12月以来の安値をつけている。著名な金融ブログで、仏銀へのエクスポージャーを 理由に同社が深刻なリスクに直面しているとの見方が示されたことが理由。CDS市場でも、ここ数日、同社の5年物は大きくス プレッドが拡大している。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- この噂の元になったのはブルームバーグのJoseph Brusuelasの書いたもので Some of this morning’s angst was apparently caused by a note by Bloomberg economist Joseph Brusuelas that has circulated widely this morning. Mr. Brusuelas says the note was a draft that was never meant for external consumption. The draft suggests that Morgan Stanley’s net exposure to French banks is $39 billion, but that net exposure number should be zero. ttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/30/morgan-stanley-cds-spreads-widen-on-eurozone-worries/ (Morgan Stanley CDS Spreads Widen on Eurozone Worries)
この書き物は幾つかの点で誤っていると指摘されていて The note, which Mr. Brusuelas says was never meant for external consumption, had an error about the company’s net exposure to French banks. It turns out that note had another error, too, in its estimate of the size of the bank’s derivatives exposure. In the note Mr. Brusuelas suggests Morgan Stanley has $1.793 trillion in notional derivatives contracts outstanding, linking to an OCC report with that data. But a closer look at that report reveals that Morgan Stanley’s notional outstanding is actually much, much bigger ? about $56 trillion in total. Mr. Brusuelas’s number includes only the exposure of Morgan Stanley’s commercial bank operations, which are very small, and misses the exposure of its holding company.
What’s also missing, however, is the context that this is not an unusually large derivatives exposure among the Too Big to Fail Set. J.P. Morgan has about $79 trillion ? trillion, with a T ? in notional derivatives contracts outstanding, for instance. Finally, these gigantic numbers represent the notional value of underlying contracts. The net exposure is actually much, much smaller. J.P. Morgan’s total credit exposure, according to the OCC report, is about $360 billion. ttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/30/morgan-stanley-more-on-its-derivatives-exposure/?mod=WSJBlog (Morgan Stanley: More Clarity on Its Derivatives Exposure)