ゴミ売の自演箇所 > Abe's refusal to compromise even slightly on the abductions means that Pyongyang and Tokyo will remain > estranged ? which puts Japan a bit out of step with a U.S. ally that's suddenly ready to engage > with North Korea. Washington has repeatedly said that it respects Japan's position on the kidnappings, > but if American and North Korean negotiators in New York remain on theatergoing terms, there's a risk > that Japan might be left behind ? and that would only make Kim Jong Il happy.
>>13 In Washington, Armenian-American groups have been pressing for years for a resolution on the genocide issue. The House of Representatives' International Relations Committee last year endorsed two resolutions classifying the killings as genocide. But the House leadership, controlled by Bush's Republican Party, prevented a vote by the full chamber. ワシントンでは長年に渡ってアルメニア系アメリカ人グループが虐殺問題の決議を通すように圧力をかけてきた。 下院国際関係委員会は去年、虐殺として事件を分類する2つの決議を承認したが、ブッシュ共和党が 支配する下院指導部(多分)が阻止した。 ペロシはこの議決を支持している まあ、古い記事だが・・・
先週、国連開発計画(UNDP)の北朝鮮オフィスが閉鎖されたのだけれど Documents obtained by the Chicago Tribune indicate that as early as last May, top UNDP officials at headquarters in New York were informed in writing of significant problems relating to the agency's use of hard foreign currency in North Korea, and that such use violated U.N. regulations that local expenses be paid in local currency. No action was taken for months. シカゴトリビューンが入手した資料によると、去年5月頃、ニューヨークのUNDP本部の高官が 北朝鮮支部で"外貨"の使用に関する重大な問題があるという文書を受け取った。それは現地の支払いは 現地の通貨でなすべしという国連の規則に違反している。問題は何ヶ月も放置されていた。
Graham, a South Carolina Republican, said he is working with the leaders of the Senate Finance Committee to develop a new legislative package that would conform with the rules of the World Trade Organization, and still create ``pain'' for the Chinese ``when they cheat.'' グラハムは上院金融委員会のリーダーと共にWTOルールに沿って、中国が"ずるをした"時に "痛み"を与える新しい法案に取り組んでいる。
彼は今年、中国との恒久通常貿易関係(permanent normal trade relations)を撤回する法案に 署名した。去年ブッシュ政権は下院で中国の通貨政策を狙った法案を阻止できたが、民主党が 多数派となり、防波堤はなくなったと彼は言った。
As strong as Pyle's overall argument about the elements of continuity in Japan's current strategic posture is, he neglects some important aspects of Japan's new foreign policy style. After decades of pursuing relationships primarily for commercial reasons, Japan is now pursuing many of its international relationships with the geostrategic aim of balancing China's influence. Abe has embraced a new partnership with India and is actively discussing a formal security treaty with Australia. Despite Singaporean elder statesman Lee Kuan Yew's famous warning to Washington that encouraging Japan to play a larger security role is like giving a former alcoholic a rum bonbon, Singapore is now at the forefront of efforts to expand Japan's political and security role in Southeast Asia; Indonesia,Vietnam, and Thailand have followed suit. None of these nations -- including Japan -- is interested in "containing" China's rise, but all are engaged in a curious mix of balancing and bandwagoning, and Tokyo is beginning to take advantage of that game.
>Abe has embraced a new partnership with India and is actively discussing >a formal security treaty with Australia.
Israel's ambassador to El Salvador has been recalled following an incident a few weeks ago when, according to Foreign Ministry officials, he was found naked, drunk, bound and gagged in his yard.
Foreign Ministry officials said Monday, after details of the incident appeared in Ma'ariv, that he was recalled because this type of behavior was "unbecoming" an Israeli diplomat. The officials said that in this type situation it was clear that the diplomat could no longer represent Israel effectively in El Salvador.
According to the report in Ma'ariv, police in El Salvador found the ambassador wearing accessories indicating sado-masochistic acts. Although drunk, the paper reported, the diplomat identified himself as the Israeli ambassador. Foreign ministry officials said he was discovered by police who were responsible for the embassy.
WASHINGTON ? American military planners have begun plotting a fallback strategy for Iraq that includes a gradual withdrawal of forces and a renewed emphasis on training Iraqi fighters in case the current troop buildup fails or is derailed by Congress.
Such a strategy, based in part on the U.S. experience in El Salvador in the 1980s, is still in the early planning stages and would be adjusted to fit the outcome of the current surge in troop levels, according to military officials and Pentagon consultants who spoke on condition of anonymity when discussing future plans.
But a drawdown of forces would be in line with comments to Congress by Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates last month that if the "surge" fails, the backup plan would include moving troops " out of harm's way." Such a plan also would be close to recommendations of the Iraq Study Group, of which Gates was a member before his appointment as Defense Department chief.
Buy a red T-shirt to fight AIDS. But does it really help? 反エイズの赤Tシャツを買うことは本当に役に立つのか? By Ben Arnoldy | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0312/p01s02-wmgn.html?page=1 去年米国で、企業は1500億円程を福祉関連マーケティング(cause-related marketing)に 費やしたが、透明性が欠けているという批判がある。
March 12, 2007 China as Big Brother By Todd Crowell http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/03/china_as_big_brother.html HUA HIN, Thailand - Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo paid a strangely fawning tribute to China during the East Asian Summit held in December in Cebu (from which the United States is excluded): "We are very happy to have China as our Big Brother in this region." 1月の東アジア首脳会議でフィリピンのアロヨ大統領が中国に "この地域で中国を"長兄(Big Brother)"として持てて幸せです"とお世辞を述べた。 Big Brotherはお馴染みの1984の監視システムじゃないよと言う説明と 中国のアジアでの紐なしバラマキ戦略の解説 中国がBig BrotherならアメリカはBig Scold(l小言屋)だという表現も
# 安全保障に関して「透明性」を求めるという事は、 # 冷戦時代の米−ソや現在の日米−中が互いに要求している事。 # それにしても、the full explanation in detail about the scope of # the cooperation, and also the intention of such efforts # とは友好国が使う言辞とは思えない。 # オーストラリアの主要貿易相手国は、2005年度で、 # 輸入 (1)中国(13.8%)(2)米国(13.6%)(3)日本(10.3%) # 輸出 (1)日本(20.4%)(2)中国(11.9%)(3)韓国(7.7%) ...
>>54 著者の見方は http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/03/china_as_big_brother.html She was not using the term "Big Brother" in the Orwellian context that is familiar to most educated Westerners from his novel 1984. Rather she was using the term in its Confucian sense of respect and deference to a benevolent elder brother. Arroyo had good reason to be effusive. In September Beijing had announced its intention to extend a $2 billion loan to the Philippines with no conditions attached.
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htsub/articles/20070313.aspx March 13, 2007: China has begun sea trials for its new Type 094 SSBNs (Ballistic Missile Nuclear Submarines). The 094 is based on the Type 093 SSN (nuclear attack sub.) 海上試運転 中国は新型094型SSBNs(弾道ミサイル原子力潜水艦)の試運転を始めた。 094型は093型SSN(攻撃型原子力潜水艦)を原型としている。
Australia, Japan Sign Historic Defense Accord By Phil Mercer Sydney 13 March 2007
Australian Prime Minister John Howard has dismissed suggestions that a new security pact with Japan will harm his country's ties with China. Mr. Howard is on an official four-day visit to Japan, to sign a historic defense treaty with his Japanese counterpart, Shinzo Abe. From Sydney, Phil Mercer reports. (省略)
US to finalise sanctions on Macao bank アメリカはマカオの銀行への制裁措置を決着させる予定 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2ef9143c-d1ba-11db-b921-000b5df10621.html The US Treasury will ban American banks on Wednesday from dealing with Banco Delta Asia, after an investigation concluded that the Macao bank had helped North Korea launder money. BDAはマネーロンダリング幇助したと認定され、米国の銀行と取引できなくなるだろう Michael Green said the Treasury move would essentially force Banco Delta Asia into bankruptcy. マイケルグリーン曰く、BDAは倒産するかもしれない。 North Korea has on several occasions said that it wants all of the funds back in orde to follow through on the nuclear deal. But officials in Washington have not yet agreed on how much they believe the bank should release. 北朝鮮は全額返還を求めているが、幾ら開放するかは決まっていない But the official said some Treasury officials were reluctant to provide more than about a third of the funds. しかし財務省高官曰く、資金の3分の1以上を提供することに消極的であった Mr Green said North Korea might also be disappointed that the US would not be removing its previous signal to the banking community not to deal with North Korea. アメリカが銀行コミュニティーに出した北朝鮮と取引するなというシグナルを撤回しないことにも 北朝鮮は失望するかもしれない "That requires the US government to send a great big 'never mind' around the world," said Mr Green. "And I don't think Treasury or the administration are inclined to do that because the North Korean financial flows are being used to support their nuclear programme and their illegal activities.
予定されていたキム・ケガンとは会えず "he was busy preparing for the six-party talks," ElBaradei met with another vice foreign minister of the same rank, Kim Hyong Jun, instead.
Now Playing: China and Japan's Tragic History Thursday, Mar. 01, 2007 By TIM MORRISON http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1595004,00.html Mizushima, for one, won't be building any bridges between Japan and China. He says he has already raised half of the $2.5 million he needs for his film, which he vows will prove "the massacre did not happen." Few outside observers expect him to succeed. As Guttentag puts it: "There's an extraordinary amount of evidence that shows that it did. There's forensic evidence, there's photographic evidence, there's film evidence, there's eyewitness testimony. I mean, what else do you need?"
The Japanese suffered a major embarrassment recently when they had to cut short their annual whale-hunting season in the Antarctic after a fire crippled their main ship and killed a crewman. The vessel sat idle for 10 days, loaded with 343,000 gallons of fuel that New Zealand said threatened to leak into the pristine waters, creating a potential public relations nightmare.
A few weeks earlier, more than half the members of the International Whaling Commission, led by antiwhaling nations like the United States, Britain and Australia, boycotted a conference that Japan had called in Tokyo to discuss the resumption of commercial whaling.
>>64 ft続報 US puts sanctions on bank tied to N Korea http://www.ft.com/cms/s/c1b4ead8-d261-11db-a7c0-000b5df10621.html The US on Wednesday banned American banks from dealing with Banco Delta Asia after concluding that the Macao bank had helped North Korea launder money, アメリカはBDAが北朝鮮のマネーロンダリングを幇助していたと結論を下し、 米国の銀行にBDAとの取引を禁止した。 Stuart Levey, Treasury undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, on Wednesday said the 18-month US investigation had confirmed that Banco Delta Asia had turned a ”blind eye” to illicit activity by North Korea. 18ヶ月の調査によりBDAが北朝鮮の違法行為を"見ないふり"をしてきたことが明確となった と財務省次官Stuart Levey氏は述べた。 In a preliminary statement, the Macao government on Thursday expressed its ”deep regret” at the Treasury department’s determination マカオ政府は"深い遺憾の意"を表明 While the Macao government must determine how much money can be returned to North Korea without breaching international financial regulations, they are in close consultation with Washington. マカオ政府は国際金融協定を破らずに幾らお金を北朝鮮に返還できるかを 決めなければならないが、ワシントンと緊密な協議をしている
Miyazaki Gov. Hideo Higashikokubaru, a comedian-turned-rookie-politician, waded into a political minefield Wednesday, claiming it was hard to confirm as historical fact that the wartime Japanese military coerced women across Asia into frontline brothels. Asked by reporters for his opinion on Abe's comments, Higashikokubaru said, "It is very difficult to confirm as a historical fact that the 'comfort women' actually existed. Higashikokubaru said he believes there was nothing wrong with Japanese engaging in the sex trade in pre-1945 Korea, because under a "bilateral accord" in 1910, the Korean Peninsula became part of Japan, where the sex business had been allowed under certain regulations. But the Koreas say Japan's colonial rule was in fact an invasion and illegal, as was any sex trade on the peninsula involving Japanese, the governor said. "Arguments differ significantly between the winner and loser," Higashikokubaru said, as a general view. 注:日本語のマスコミの記事だと、何故かこの部分は報道されていません。
“We have expressed our deep regret to the US side,” foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang told reporters in a regular briefing in Beijing. "我々はアメリカに対し深い遺憾の意を表する"と中国外交部スポークスマン秦剛は述べた ”We believe the US side should take actions that help stimulate progress in the six-party talks and help in maintaining social stability of the Macao Special Administrative Region.” "我々はアメリカが六者協議の促進とマカオ特別行政府の社会的安定性に寄与するように 行動すべきであると考えている"
North Korea has demanded that the US lift what it terms the financial “sanctions” imposed on its regime. 北朝鮮は、北朝鮮が金融"制裁"と呼んでいるものを解除するようアメリカに要求してきた。
Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, told reporters in Tokyo on Thursday that the US move wouldn’t affect Japan’s stance on pushing for North Korea’s nuclear disarmament, according to Bloomberg news agency.
AP:澳門のBDAは、アメリカ政府の非難に反論する、マネロンの意図は無かったと http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/03/16/asia/AS-GEN-Macau-US-NKorea.php Macau bank says it will challenge U.S. allegations of illegal North Korean ties The Associated Press Published: March 15, 2007 The lender, Banco Delta Asia, also denied that it "knew or suspected" that its North Korean customers were engaged in money laundering, said Stanley Au, chairman of Delta Asia Group (Holdings) Ltd. The bank is a unit of the group. Au said at a news conference the bank regrets the U.S. announcement on Wednesday that it would sever the lender's ties with the U.S. financial system ? a move that could seriously cripple the bank.
The group "expects Banco Delta Asia to continue to appeal against the U.S. rule making," "We are not prepared to resume activity with them (North Korea) for the future," Au said. しかしBDAの持株会社の議長は、BDAが北朝鮮とのビジネスを再開する意思 は無いと述べている。
ほとんどの銀行にとって米国から締め出されるのは大打撃になるだろうと 香港大学のフレッド・カン教授は述べた。 "It sounds like the U.S. wants to close up the bank," Kwan said. "米国はあの銀行を閉鎖したいようだ" 米国の処置によりBDAはローカルバンクの地位に降格すると教授は言った。 アメリカと直接取引きができず、第三者割り当てを行わなければならないだろう。 "もしアメリカの銀行と取引できなくなったら、人々が疑問を持ち始めるだろう" "銀行は評判で生きているのだ"と教授
2年前米国が銀行の不正を告発したとき、何千もの顧客が列を成してお金を引き出した。 そしてマカオ政府が経営権を握った。しかし(今週の)金曜日には、取り付け騒ぎの兆候はなかった。 銀行の顧客、公務員のLam In (38)は、家族や友人と口座を閉じるという話はしなかったと言う。 彼は3年間銀行を利用し続け、取引手数料が安いので今後も利用し続けると言った。 もう一人の宝石店を営む女性はBDAについては気にしていないと言う。 安全のために口座をいくつかの小口口座に分けているからだ。 "騙されたとしても、小額に過ぎない"と彼女は言った。
The Biased Broadcasting Corporation (偏向放送局、略すとBBC) By FRANK H. STEWART Published: March 15, 2007 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/15/opinion/15stewart.html?_r=1&oref=slogin The British are among our closest and most reliable allies, and it is strange that their government pays for these broadcasts, many of which are produced in Cairo rather than in London. If the BBC models its Arabic television service on its Arabic radio service, yet another anti-Western, antidemocratic channel will find its place on the Arab screen.
>>7 Plame Says Administration 'Recklessly' Revealed Her Hill Testimony Breaks Ex-CIA Agent's Silence on Leak http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/16/AR2007031600276.html Plame calmly but firmly knocked down longstanding claims by administration allies that the disclosure was not criminal because she had not worked in a covert capacity. プレイム氏は冷静に力強く 彼女は秘密工作員の資格で働いていなかったので(彼女の身元の)公開は犯罪ではなかった という政権支持者が長く主張してきたことを否定した。 "I am here to say I was a covert officer of the Central Intelligence Agency," Plame told "私がCIAの秘密工作員であったと言うためにここに来ました"とプレイム氏は述べた
http://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/2007/03/plame_on.html Some news stories created initial confusion over Plame's status by suggesting that disclosure of her name and employment may have violated the Intelligence Identities Protection Act of 1982. That law, passed in response to disclosure of the names of CIA officers serving overseas by former CIA employee Philip Agee, made it a crime to disclose the names of "covert agents," which the act narrowly defined as those serving overseas or who had served as such in the previous five years. プレイム氏の名前や職業を明かすことが1982年に制定された諜報員身元保護法に違反していたのかも しれないと示唆することで、プライム氏の地位について混乱を作り出しているニュースがある。 その法律は、海外で働くCIA職員の名前を明かすことに対して作られた。海外で活動している人や、 5年以上そういった活動をした人を狭い意味で"秘密工作員"と定義づけ、その名前を明かすことは 犯罪であるとしたのである。
"Covert agent" is not a label actually used within the agency for its employees, according to former senior CIA officials. Plame, who joined the agency right out of Pennsylvania State University, underwent rigorous spycraft training to become an officer in the Directorate of Operations. (The term "agent" in the CIA is only applied to foreign nationals recruited to spy in support of U.S. interests.) "工作員/agent"という用語は、CIAの中では米国の利益のためにスパイ活動をすべく雇われた 外国国籍保持者にのみ使われる。
LGF系小ネタ Some Muslim workers at Target refuse to handle pork Submitted by Chris Serres, Star Tribune Staff Writer on Mon, 03/12/2007 - 5:21pm. http://www.buzz.mn/?q=node/898 ミネアポリスのTargetというスーパーマーケットでレジ係が宗教的な理由で ベーコンをスキャンするのを拒否したと言う話を聞いた記者が実際にその店に行った。 そして、冷凍ペパローニ・ピザをヒジャーブをしたレジ係りに持っていたところ、 そのレジ係りが別の店員を呼んでピザのレジ打ちをしカゴに入れてもらったという。 ムスリムだからかと尋ねたところ、頷いて"触れることさえできない"と答えた。
Utrecht: Ethnic Riots after Dutchman is Killed by Police http://www.brusselsjournal.com/node/1976 オランダでモロッコ系女性警官がネイティブオランダ人を射殺したことをきっかけにネイティブの オランダ人による暴動が起き、130人が警官に逮捕された。 モロッコ系移民によるオランダ人妊婦への嫌がらせを助けに来たオランダ人が、 駆けつけた警察官に射殺されたと伝えている。 大手メディアは警官の国籍や事件の詳細は伝えていないと言う。
N Korea hints nuclear deal is safe By David Pilling in Tokyo, Andrew Yeh in Beijing and Robin Kwong in Macao Published: March 16 2007 20:11 | Last updated: March 16 2007 20:11 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/7255a520-d3e4-11db-8889-000b5df10621.html 朝鮮新報が今回の解凍措置を"画期的な出来事"と評した記事を引用。
Beijing on Thursday expressed “deep regret” over the Treasury decision to ban US banks from doing business with Banco Delta Asia. In Japan, by contrast, the Treasury’s action has been widely, if privately, portrayed as a weakening of the sanctions regime and a green light to other banks to do business with Pyongyang. 米銀行とBDAとの取引禁止措置に対し中国は"深い遺憾の意"を評した。 それとは対照的に日本では、財務省の決断は制裁の弱体化、そして 北朝鮮と他の銀行の取引を許可する青信号のように、非公式ではあるが広く伝えられている。
North Korea's Cruelty By Kay Seok Saturday, March 17, 2007; Page A19 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/16/AR2007031601940.html The world should pay attention not only to North Korea's responsibilities under the new nuclear disarmament agreement but also to Pyongyang's responsibilities to its own people. North Koreans are forced to flee their country when the state has failed them. The rest of the world should not fail them as well.
The writer is North Korea researcher at Human Rights Watch.
The Treasury probe has also had the salutary effect of forcing Macau, once a favored haunt of North Korean "businessmen," to impose better checks on money laundering. The investigation, which covered some 300,000 pages of documents, was helpful, too, in exposing North Korea's illegal activity world-wide. One source says that following the "spaghetti-like" trail of data has led to useful information about how Pyongyang operates and where it puts its money. (財務省の収集したデータは期待できそうなのかしらん?wktk)
So the U.S. decided to make another pre-emptive concession. North Korea is now expected to make a full accounting of all its nuclear programs, and shut down and disable the Yongbyon nuclear facility, by April 14. We look forward to seeing what's left out of that declaration. 最初のタイムリミットの4月14日に(核廃棄の約束が)どうなっているか、期待してみているよ、 とWSJはいう。
SECRETARY RICE: Well, I think perseverance. The fact is that we've achieved a great deal with the Iraqis but there's still much more to do. And of course one is always -- thinks about the tremendous sacrifice the men and women who have been lost in this war and the innocent Iraqis who have died. But we also have to remember the 12.5 million people who voted, Iraqis who voted for a new government and a new life, and I think the new possibilities that are opened up by the Baghdad security plan which thus far is well on the way.
But there are rumors that Hu is having trouble within the Party in choosing a successor and in promoting the successor to the Politburo standing committee. Although Hu has made a show of strength in striking at the political elite of Shanghai -- the base of support for Jiang and the center of opposition to Hu's economic policies -- he hasn't been able to gain enough support to fully promote his own economic experiments. His power is limited. しかしながら、胡主席が共産党の中で次世代の指導者を選ぶに当たって、トラブっていると いう噂がある。指導者の候補者を政治局常務委員にするのに、上手くいっていないと。胡主 席は上海閥に対して、上海の政治エリートを打ち破る強さを見せてはいるのだが、つまり 前主席の江沢民の権力基盤のことなのだが、胡主席は彼独自の経済的実験を完全にプロモー ト出来るほどには充分な支持が得られていない。彼の権力基盤は限られているのだ。
This year's congress will strike out through uncharted territory and could set a precedent for how new Chinese leaders will be chosen. Inside the CPC there are calls for more intra-party democracy (though there is no support for elections or a multi -party system in China as a whole). 今年の全人代は前人未踏の領域に踏み出しているところがあって、新たな指導者の選択をど うするのか、と言うのも、その課題である。共産党の内部には党内民主主義を求める声もあ る。(とはいえ複数政党制度や選挙制度を全中国的にやろうという声は無い)
Different views and interpretations will proliferate -- but rather than focusing on difficulties faced personally by Hu, it will be more critical to note how a new framework for selecting China's top government officials is shaped. This, in turn, will be crucial for identifying the direction China's next decade of strategic policy decisions will take. 様々の考えが乱れ飛ぶ中で、胡主席にとって最もクリティカルなことは、新たな指導者を 選ぶフレームワークを作ることである。これは中国の次の世代の戦略方向を決める上で重 要なこととなる。
A senior European official said: “We consider this a very important decision by the Russians. It shows that our disagreements with the Russians about the dangers of Iran ’s nuclear program are tactical. Fundamentally, the Russians don’t want a nuclear Iran.” ---------------------------------------------------------------------- これは以前から注目されているもので、現在95%完成といわれるブシェール原発の工事が 中止で、3月から開始予定だった燃料棒の搬入がなされていないので、イランは怒り捲くっ ている。ロシアは国連安保理決議に従わないなら、工事を行なわないといっていて、プーチ ンの絶妙のバランシングが見られる、というもの。
The exchange marked the most substantive clash to date between the Obama and Clinton campaigns and reflected frustration among Clinton advisers over the Illinois senator's use of the issue to distinguish his candidacy. この討論は、公開で行なわれたヒラリー陣営とオバマ陣営の衝突としては最も激しいもの となった。また、それはヒラリー陣営のオバマ候補に対するフラストレーションを示すも のでもあった。(後略) ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 国内で余り報道されていない、ヒラリーVSオバマの衝突がエスカレートしている様子を 示す報道。飴のブログには、両陣営のクラッシュを興味深く眺めるものが多く、保守派の ブロガーは見物(と分析)を楽しんでいるような。
代表的な保守派のブログである、パワーラインはこの事件にコメントして: ttp://powerlineblog.com/archives/017087.php It's understandable that the Clinton campaign wants to take the luster off of Obama as an opponent of the war. However, Obama may well get the better of the argument. First, from an objective standpoint it speaks well of Obama that he doesn't preclude the possibility that he might have voted for the war resolution. Only those on the far left would want a president who, on no possible set of facts, would have been unwilling to take down Saddam Hussein's regime.(後略)
Those were not my words ? at least not when I heard them firsthand in Beijing, last Friday, 15 March. In uncharacteristically blunt language, China’s Premier, Wen Jiabao, used the occasion of his annual press conference following the conclusion of the National People’s Congress to send a very clear message about the state of the Chinese economy. He explicitly characterized macro conditions as “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable.” I have never known a senior policy maker or political leader anywhere to leave it like that without rising to meet his own self-imposed challenge. Premier Wen has put his reputation firmly on the line. China, in my view, now has no choice but to continue tightening as it attempts to bring its rapidly growing and unbalanced economy under control. タイトルにある中国経済へのコメントは私の言葉ではなくて3月15日の温首相の発言である。 全人代の後の、恒例の記者会見の中で述べたもの。政権内部の高位の政治家の、こういう激 しい評価は見たことが無い。温首相は中国の直面する問題点を捉えているというべきであり、 私の見方からすれば、いまや引き締め政策を取る以外に、急速に拡大しているアンバランス な経済を管理する手法が無い。
For those of us in the West, this is a strong signal we need to update our perceptions of China. Think less of open-ended unbalanced growth and more of a somewhat slower and better balanced expansion. Think less of an industrial-production dominated model with destabilizing implications for natural resource consumption and the environment. Think more of a shift to consumption and “greener” growth. Think also of macro stabilization policies ? not just those of central bank but especially those of the central planners at the NDRC ? that will be used increasingly to up the ante on the tightening required to achieve these objectives. But don’t think for a moment that China will back down on the reforms that have driven nearly three decades of its extraordinary transformation. Time and again, China has used the reform process to spark key transitions in its development journey. I suspect a similar transition is now at hand. In the end, Premier Wen Jiabao said it all as he brought the 2007 China Development Forum to a close, “Our plan is in place. What is needed is action.” And I suspect that is exactly what will happen over the course of this year.
ttp://www.opinionjournal.com/wsj/?id=110009809 Who Needs Nukes Why the U.S. and other Western powers need to modernize their arsenals. BY BRET STEPHENS Tuesday, March 20, 2007 12:01 a.m. EDT
ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/81968.htm Evening Walkthrough With Reporters at Six-Party Talks Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs St. Regis Hotel Beijing, China
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: We’ve had a working group going with the DPRK involving our Treasury Department. I think they met once in February, once previously in December, I think they met in the previous spring. We’ve told the DPRK that we are prepared to keep having these working group meetings for the purpose of essentially trying to make them understand the rules of the road in the international banking system and why they need to play by the right rules. So I hope that if they pay attention and really show an interest in this, they will be able to put themselves in a better position. BDAは国際金融のルールに違反していることを財務省が北朝鮮に詳しく説明した。
You know, they have certainly engaged in some illicit activities, which are big problems for us and for many countries. They’ve also engaged in producing weapons of mass destruction which are, frankly speaking, an even bigger problem. And the combination of these problems has meant that a lot of banks have not wanted to do business with them. So they’ve got to start crawling out of that hole. 北朝鮮は偽札、マネロンなど、違法行為に関与してBDAを使っており、更にWMD製造 にも関与している。それらの問題が集まっているBDAを国際金融コミニティは容認でき ない。
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: Yes, the North Koreans today, as I understand, were concerned about making sure this transaction involving getting their money -- involving this BDA issue -- is finalized. So I think they are under fairly strong instructions from home to get this thing finalized. I think a lot of their energy today was taken up working with the Chinese on trying to finalize this arrangement.
ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: I certainly, from the last few days, I had the impression that they were very concerned about getting monies that had been frozen. But logically, they should be very concerned about access to the international financial system, and the way to do that is to get out of illicit activities and get out of producing weapons of mass destruction. When you put those two together, you should not be surprised that your bank accounts have had some extra scrutiny over the years.
We are prepared to work with them on helping them understand what needs to be done to get better access internationally. And even though the matter of BDA is finished, we are prepared to continue to have working groups for the purpose of talking to them about this. It would be in our interest to have the DPRK understand what the real rules are and to get out of practices that have caused them so much trouble. We want the DPRK to get out of these problems. It would help everybody.
>96-98 引用したヒル国務次官補の最後の発言の中にも「口座に残った資金を入手することよりは 国際金融システムへのアクセスのほうが、はるかに重要なはずだが・・・」というのがあ って、北朝鮮が何故それにこだわっていないのか、良くワカラン。 (But logically, they should be very concerned about access to the international financial system・・・) 無論、国際金融システムにアクセスできる為には、違法行為を止める必要があるわけで、 それは簡単なことでは無いはず・・
北朝鮮は同行の関連口座の資金2500万ドル(約29億4700万円)全額が米国との 合意通り、中国銀行にある北朝鮮の朝鮮貿易銀行口座に移管、返還が確認されるまでは協 議に応じない構えを崩していない。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.nctimes.com/articles/2007/03/21/news/nation/16_04_403_20_07.txt North Korea refuses to join nuclear talks until frozen funds get released By: BO-MI LIM - Associated Press 9 minutes ago
BEIJING -- North Korea stayed away from six-nation talks on its nuclear program Tuesday in a dispute over $25 million of its funds, dimming prospects for progress on getting the communist regime to disarm.
To add even more weight to the situation, the increased tensions between Rosneft and Gazprom come as those within the inner circle jockey for power and placement ahead of the presidential election in March 2008. A fight between Russia's two largest energy companies -- and some of the most powerful members of Putin's inner circle -- over assets and shares worth billions of dollars could lead to a sticky political situation with ominous consequences for those involved -- and also for those standing close by. この状況が重みを有するのは、クレムリンのインナー・サークルに2008年の大統領選挙にむ けて、内部闘争があると見られる為である。二つの巨大石油企業の争いは、プーチンのイン ナー・サークルの中の争いが顕在化していることを意味し、巨額の利権や政治勢力をめぐる 争いが起こっている事を示す。
2005年にEUは対中武器禁輸措置を解除する寸前にまで進んだのだがブラッセルのEU議会 のメンバーやEU諸国の政治家はそれを阻止した。今回について、彼等は同じようにするの だろうか(This time, will they do la meme chose?) (Ca Va=That Goes、to go; la meme chose=the same thing)
EUの対中武器禁輸措置について、フランス国防相は金曜日に東京で記者団に対して「禁 輸措置は政治的かつ心理的なものに過ぎない」と語っている。 The ban is nothing but a political and psychological thing," she told reporters in Tokyo last Friday.
WSJの社説も: French President Jacques Chirac is about to leave office, but not without an encore pot-stirrer in China. Yesterday in Beijing, his Defense Minister, Michele Alliot- Marie, said(ry
But U.S. officials announced Monday that the money would be transferred to a North Korean account in Beijing, saying it was up to the Monetary Authority of Macau, a Chinese territory, to release the funds. アメリカ政府高官は月曜日に、BDA口座の資金が北京の北朝鮮の口座に送金されるとし、 口座の解除は澳門の金融当局の決めることと述べた。
The Monetary Authority has declined to say if it will announce when the funds have been released. "I have no instructions from my superiors regarding when the money will be transferred," Wendy Au, a spokeswoman for the authority, said Wednesday. (澳門の)金融当局は口座の解除が何時行なわれたか答えることを拒否し「送金について上部 から何時なのか指示を受けていない」とのべた。水曜日に金融当局の広報官Wendy Auが答えた。
BDA spokesman Joe Wong said the money remains frozen and that the bank hasn't been ordered by the authority to release the funds. BDAの広報官Joe Wongは資金が凍結されたままであり、BDAは金融当局から凍結解除の指 示を受けていないと答えた。 ttp://www.lompocrecord.com/articles/2007/03/21/ap/international/d8o0e9c80.txt North Korea Nuclear Talks Remain Stalled By MARI YAMAGUCHI
ttp://en.rian.ru/russia/20070321/62381739.html "As for money transfers through banks in some other country, these banks will also want to know whether they will be subject to [U.S.] sanctions as well," Losyukov said, explaining the Bank of China's refusal. ロシア代表は中国銀行が受け入れを拒否していることについて、財務省の制裁の可能性 について不安があるためだといっている。
South Korea's Yonhap agency said earlier Wednesday, citing officials at the talks in Beijing, that the bank had to handle about 50 accounts, most of which had been registered with two North Korean officials, one of whom had died and the other was in Pyongyang. 聯合通信に拠れば、銀行は50程度の口座を処理する必要があるが、殆どの口座は二人の北 朝鮮の役人の名義であり、一人は死亡していて、もう一人はピョンヤンにいるという。
最近の経済指標はまちまちで、住宅セクターの調整は進行している。それでもなお経済は今 後数四半期、緩やかなペースで拡大を続ける可能性が高いようだ(the economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters)。
これらの状況を踏まえ、インフレが予想通り鈍化しないリスクが、当委員会にとって引き続き 主要な政策懸念となる(the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected)。将来の政策調整は、今後の情報によって 示唆される、インフレおよび経済成長の双方の見通しの進展に依存することになる(Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information)。(後略) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- オリジナルのFRBの声明文は↓ ttp://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2007/20070321/
ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/82029.htm Evening Walkthrough With Reporters at Six-Party Talks Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs St. Regis Hotel Beijing, China March 21, 2007 国務省ファイル:3月21日夕刻、北京セントレジス・ホテル、ヒル国務次官補の会見記録
ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/82026.htm Afternoon Walkthrough With Reporters at Six-Party Talks Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs St. Regis Hotel Beijing, China March 21, 2007 国務省ファイル:3月21日午後、北京セントレジス・ホテル、ヒル国務次官補の会見記録 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDA口座の北朝鮮資金の送金トラブルで事態の進行していない状況について記者団と やり取りしているもの。
"It would be logical to halt the talks, inasmuch as it would be difficult to resolve the problem of North Korea's accounts in a day or two," Losyukov said. ロシア代表のLosyukovは「北朝鮮のBDA口座の問題は、1、2日で解決できないので、協議 を中断することが論理的だ」と述べた。
Asked about when the negotiations could be resumed, Losyukov said: "I don't think it necessary to collect whole delegations, and instead we had better entrust the issue to the working group on denuclearization, which would fix timelines, coordinate details and make a report at a general meeting of delegations to avoid pointless discussions and the loss of time and prestige of the negotiations." 協議再開の見通しを聞かれてLosyukov代表は「全ての関係国の代表を集める必要は無い。むし ろ問題の処理をワーキンググループに任せて、タイムラインをつくり、細部を詰めるのが良 いと思う。ワーキンググループの報告を全体会議で審議すべきで、各国代表の貴重な時間を浪 費する無意味な議論や時間の無駄を省けるだろう」
Losyukov also warned Russian banks against transferring money from the unfrozen North Korean accounts in Macao. "Although we have not received any relevant application, I would not recommend any Russian bank or organization to handle such transactions," Losyukov said in Pyongyang Thursday. Losyukovは澳門のBDAについて、ロシアの銀行は送金などをに関わるべきではないと述べた。 「ロシアの銀行が関わっている話は聞いていないが、ロシアの銀行は、BDAの取引に関わる べきではないと思う」 "The U.S. Administration should submit applications or written warrants that transactions with North Korean assets will not have consequences for anyone," Losyukov said 中国銀行が北朝鮮口座資金の受け入れを拒否している件で、Losyukovは「アメリカ政府はBDA の北朝鮮口座資金を受け入れる銀行について、(マネロン疑惑や制裁などの)悪影響を蒙る事は 無い、という誓約書、保証書を出すべきだ」と述べた。
ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/82070.htm Morning Walkthrough With Journalists at Six-Party Talks Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs St. Regis Hotel Beijing, China March 22, 2007 国務省ファイル:3月22日朝、セントレジス・ホテルにて、ヒル国務次官の補記者会見 (部分抜粋)
Q:今日、北朝鮮との二国間協議を予定していますか? A:昨晩7時ごろに、北朝鮮側と話し合いをしたので、今日特に会う必要は無い。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ヒル国務次官補の理解は、送金トラブルは中国と北朝鮮の手続きの問題で、中国側がいろいろ 努力中、というもの。( As I’ve said before, this is a Chinese-North Korean paperwork exercise. I’ll find out what is happening.)
ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/82071.htm Evening Walkthrough With Journalists at Six-Party Talks Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs St. Regis Hotel Beijing, China March 22, 2007 国務省ファイル:3月22日夕刻、セントレジス・ホテルにて、ヒル国務次官の補記者会見
QUESTION: So are you satisfied? Frustrated? ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: I’m never frustrated -- except when the Red Sox lose. No, this is a long, tough road.
QUESTION: ・・・So I wondered why you thought this was going to be a quick process? ASSISTANT SECRETARY HILL: This was a solution the DPRK proposed as a result of considerable bilateral discussions. It was discussed with the Chinese as well. It’s proven to be more complex
A Chinese Co-Prosperity Sphere? A Resurgent China confronts Japan. by Ernest W. Lefever 03/22/2007 12:00:00 AM http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/013/406iofjf.asp?pg=2 Such parallels can be perilous, but a Japanese nuclear deterrent together with its continuing military alliance with the United States could promote greater stability in this vital and dangerous region and blunt any Chinese imperial ambitions in the Pacific.
In a statement on its Web site, the Macao monetary authority said it would handle all money in Banco Delta Asia according to instructions from the account holders. 澳門の金融当局は、口座保有者の指示により、BDA口座の資金の全額を扱うと述べている。
However, banking analysts said it was unlikely that all account holders would agree to have their money transferred to an account they could not control in the Bank of China. They also questioned whether the Chinese bank would be comfortable accepting money without question from a bank that the United States had accused of crimes. しかし銀行業界のアナリストは、BDAの口座保有者の全員が、口座資金の中国銀行への移動 に賛成するとは思えないという。さらに、中国銀行がアメリカ財務省の犯罪認定した銀行から 無条件に、資金を快く受け入れるかは疑問であるとしている。
What appears clear, though, is that Japanese strategic planners view the island nation's nuclear deficiency as a potential risk, and are not too confident in U.S. assurances that everything is taken care of. At a minimum, Japan wants more information and input on the mechanics of a U.S. nuclear umbrella (where are the submarines, for example, or what is the decision-making process for shifting to nuclear weapons) -- something Washington will be unlikely to provide.
>>147-148 STRATFORの評論の言っていることは、北朝鮮の核実験などの脅威の高まった 状況では、日本の核攻撃に対する対応能力の不安(nuclear deficiency as a potential risk)について、従来と同じというわけにはゆかない。日本の核安全保障の計画が納得 のゆくものになりえないなら、将来は核武装に進む可能性が高まる、と言うほどの事。
We don't know if the 'Big Brother' spot will hurt Clinton, help Obama or change the mind of even one voter. But we're sure it has added a welcome touch of randomness to politics. It boosts freedom and weakens control. And whatever our views on the candidates involved, we can't help but salute this effort to get around the rules that stifle political speech.
ttp://www.michaelyon-online.com/wp/tabula-rasa.htm Tabula Rasa From Baghdad -------------------------------------------------------------------------- イラクなどの戦闘の前線に入って、独特のレポートを続けているフリーランスのジャーナリ ストで評価の高いMichael Yonの書いているもの。たいへん味わい深いけれど翻訳しない。
One overarching message from the front is that our combat forces are overwhelmingly good to the Iraqis and extremely accommodating to media, but there is a deeper substrate. We simply cannot beat the terrorists if we do not learn how to embrace media realities. With all the focus on training Iraqi Security Forces, it might be worth considering training our own team, too. 戦闘の前線からの、最重要のメッセージはアメリカ軍はイラク国民に対してとても良くしてい るし、メディアに対しても極度に親切にしている。しかし、そこには深く、基本的な立場の違 いがある。我々がメディアのリアリティをどういう風に扱うのかを学ばない限り、テロリスト を撲滅することは不可能である。アメリカ軍はイラクの治安部隊の教育訓練にあたっているわ けだが、我々自身の(メディアへの対応の)トレーニングを行なうことは考慮に値するのでは ないか。
Among the nine members of the Standing Committee, at least four leaders?Luo Gan (72), Huang Ju (69), Wu Guanzheng (69), and Jia Qinglin (67)?are expected to retire. Luo Gan(羅干)Huang Ju(黄菊)Wu Guanzheng(呉官正)Jia Qinglin(賈慶林)が引退。
A new team will likely replace current top economic and financial decision-makers, including Huang Ju (69), Wu Yi (68), Zeng Peiyan (68) and Hua Jianmin (67). The leading candidates are Ma Kai, Minister of the National Development and Reform Commission (61); Li Rongrong, Minister of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (63); Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor of the People’s Bank (59); Bo Xilai, Minister of Commerce (58); and Lou Jiwei, Deputy Secretary-General of the State Council (57). Some current provincial leaders, such as Beijing Mayor Wang Qishan (59), Tianjin Mayor Dai Xianglong (63), Shanghai Mayor and Acting-Party Secretary Han Zheng (53), and Chongqing Party Secretary Wang Yang (52) are also among the leading candidates for posts as vice-premiers in charge of economic and financial matters. Huang Ju(黄菊)Wu Yi(呉儀)Zeng Peiyan(曾培炎)Hua Jianmin (華建敏)の経済チーム が世代交代する。Ma Kai(馬凱)Li Rongrong(李栄融)Zhou Xiaochuan(周小川)Bo Xilai (薄熙来)、Lou Jiweiなどが後任候補。
胡主席の後継者、第5世代の指導者候補は Among all the candidates, four leaders?Liaoning Party Secretary Li Keqiang (52), Jiangsu Party Secretary Li Yuanchao (57), Chongqing Party Secretary Wang Yang (52) and Zhejiang Party Secretary Xi Jinping (54)?are apparently the front-runners in the race for power. Li Keqiang(李克強)Li Yuanchao(李源潮)、Wang Yang(汪洋)Xi Jinping(習近平) (後略)
イラク政府が中国と日本に、石油権益と引きかえの形でインフラ整備への協力、政府ローンの 供与などを求めることは確実であろう。そうした状況では日中の競合が激化することはほぼ確 実と見られる。しかし、日本政府の進めた日の丸石油(“Hinomaru oil” (i.e. oil developed and produced by domestic companies) )計画は失敗が多く経済的に見合っていないものが多 い。中国との競合が起これば、各種思惑から失敗しそうな計画が生まれてくる可能性がある。
The overall climate of Sino-Japanese relations is nevertheless bound to condition and be conditioned by their respective dealings with Iraq, its neighbors and other energy suppliers for many years to come.
"It could well be that a nuclear deal that resulted in greater amounts of aid would actually allow the North Korean government to intensify activities that are essentially reestablishing economic and political control over the population," he said. 「核廃棄交渉で多くの支援が与えられるならば、それは実際には北朝鮮政府が国内の経 済的および政治的支配の再確立の動きを強める為に使われるかもしれない」
何故そういう考え方をするかといえば、
"One of the saddest things is that as food aid began arriving in North Korea, the regime systematically cut the amount of food it bought on commercial terms," he said. 「北朝鮮の最も悲惨な事実のひとつは、北朝鮮への食糧支援が届けられると、北朝鮮政 府はシステマティックに商業的に市場に流通する食糧の量を削減することである」
ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/82119.htm Morning Walkthrough With Journalists at Six-Party Talks Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs St. Regis Hotel Beijing, China March 23, 2007 国務省ファイル:3月23日、セントレジス・ホテルで、ヒル国務次官補の記者会見
ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/82135.htm Comments to Reporters While Transiting Narita Airport Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Tokyo, Japan March 23, 2007 国務省ファイル;3月23日、成田空港での昼国務次官補の記者団へのコメント ------------------------------------------------------------------------ BDA口座資金の送金問題、財務省のグレイザー副補佐官の中国訪問予定などの質問 が出ているけれど、ヒル国務次官補は従前どおりの解答で、新たな情報は無いような。
ttp://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2007/mar/82142.htm Daily Press Briefing Sean McCormack, Spokesman Washington, DC March 23, 2007 国務省広報官のディリー記者会見記録、3月23日 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 国務省の記者会見でも、北朝鮮のBDA口座資金の送金問題、財務省のグレイザー 副次官補の北京訪問について質問が出ているけれど、国務省は「BDA問題は処理 が終わっている」という態度で、送金問題は「中国と北朝鮮の、銀行実務上の問題 だから、国務省はコメントしない」という態度。
MR. MCCORMACK: The Treasury has issued a rule regarding Banco Delta Asia. And now it is a matter -- a technical banking matter that involves the Chinese authorities, the Macanese authorities and the North Korean authorities. And we are confident based on what we understand of the situation that it will be resolved.
WASHINGTON, DC ? Daniel Glaser, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes, leads a Treasury delegation to Beijing, China Saturday to offer assistance to the Macanese and Chinese in addressing the issue of North Korean-related funds frozen at Banco Delta Asia (BDA). グレイザー副次官補の一団が北京を訪問し、澳門と中国の金融当局に対するBDAの北朝鮮 関連の口座資金に関するアシスタンスを行なう予定である。
"The policy and diplomatic issues have been solved ? this is now down to implementation. The Macanese and Chinese have made clear that they want to ensure implementation of the agreement is consistent with their own laws and with their international obligations. We are bringing Treasury expertise to help the Macanese and Chinese wade through some of these implementation issues," said Glaser. 「この問題についての政策決定や外交判断は既に決定されているが、この問題は今では実施 段階にある。中国と澳門の金融当局はその政策実施が国際的な責務や国内法に合致することを 確実なものとしたいと願っている。私たちは財務省のもつ金融専門知識で、中国と澳門の政策 実施の手助けをしたい」とグレイザー副次官補は語っている。
The Arab Initiative "speaks to the clear need for an Israeli-Arab reconciliation to accompany the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict," Rice said last week.
One of Rice's possible goals this spring, diplomats said, is to bring together the Quartet, the Arab Quartet, Israel and Palestinian leader Abbas for a single meeting. This would publicly bring together Israeli and Saudi officials for the first time since 2000;
>>170 派手な事件になりそうですねえ。中国産の原料が原因と書いているメディもあり ますが↓ ttp://www.healthcentral.com/diet-exercise/news-33457-31.html ABC News, citing an unidentified source, reported Friday that the poison was on wheat imported from China and used by Menu Foods in almost 100 brands of dog and cat food.
Seng Heng Bank (SHB) is a licensed bank in Macau established since 1972. In November 1989, full ownership of SHB was acquired by Sociedade de Turismo e Diversoes de Macau S.A. (STDM), a well-known regional conglomerate with extensive business interests in Macau, Hong Kong, China and Portugal, which has provided SHB with strong financial support and extensive business connections.
The Bank has now grown to become the second largest locally incorporated bank in Macau with shareholders' fund of MOP1,581 million and a staff of 314 offering the full range of banking products and services.
The Bank's headquarters are located in 50,000 square feet of office space in the Seng Heng Bank Tower at the prestigious Macau Landmark complex.
在米国日本国大使館のWebサイトにある従軍慰安婦の情報ページ ttp://www.us.emb-japan.go.jp/english/html/cw1.htm The Comfort Women Issue ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 以前にチェックしたものを、再度確認したけれど、全く変化していない。このページでは 日本国は充分な謝罪をしている、といっているだけで、中国や韓国の主張について、強制 連行の否定、反論などは全く行なっていない。
この関連には幾つものサイトが各地にあって ttp://www.sjwar.org/ Alliance for Preserving the Truth of Sino-Japanese War 北部カリフォルニア Alliance for Preserving the Truth of Sino-Japanese War (APTSJW) is a Northern California based grassroots organization dedicated to preserve the truth of the painful history of the Sino-Japanese War (1931-1945).
ttp://www.alpha-la.org/ ロサンゼルス Alliance to Preserve the History of WWII in Asia at LA (ALPHA-LA)
>>171 thanks 580 名前: 中小企業診断士(東京都)[sage] 投稿日:2007/03/24(土) 22:33:54 ID:jji7D/qP0 ttp://1blog4everyone.blogspot.com/index.html The FDA says it appears to be rat poison that was on wheat gluten imported from China and made it into the pet food. That's the preliminary theory. MSNBC
But to be fully effective the EU must complement its soft power by developing more “hard power” to help deal with common security threats and humanitarian crises be they in the former Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, the Middle East or Darfur. For too long, European countries have clung to the coat-tails of US power while, within Europe, too many countries have been “free riders” on Britain and France, which provide about 40 per cent of all defence spending within the EU. All 27 member states must contribute money and men to ensure that Europe has the ability to project power abroad in co -operation with the US. EUがより効果的であるためには、EUはその持てるソフトパワーだけでなく、前のユーゴ とか、アフガニスタンとか、スーダンのダルフールとか、中東とかの人道問題や共通の安全 保障上の脅威に対抗すべく、ハードパワーをもより充実させるべきである。欧州諸国はアメ リカの(軍事)パワーのすそにしがみついてきたわけで、欧州内部にあっては英国とフラン スの軍事力にただ乗りしてきた国が多すぎる。英仏二国でEUの軍事支出の40%を占めてい るが、EUの参加27ヶ国は全て予算と人員を提供してアメリカとの共同で欧州の軍事力を展 開できるようにすべきである。
A more muscular defence capability must go hand in hand with a more coherent foreign policy. That, in turn, presupposes institutional reform along some of the lines envisaged by the constitutional treaty. Like it or not, the EU will have to return to this ugly subject. より強力な軍事力は、より統一的な外交政策を伴うべきであり、それは憲法に関連するよう な組織の改定を必要とするであろう。それを好むと好まざるとに関わらず、EUはこの困難 な問題を避けて通る事はできない。
n 2005, Xi led a party delegation to North Korea as Beijing was trying to restart disarmament talks on the North's nuclear program, though there was no indication that Xi was involved in nuclear diplomacy. 2005年に北朝鮮訪問、6者会合再開の為
Xi served earlier as governor of Fujian province, south of Zhejiang, where he was credited with attracting investment from rival Taiwan, across the Taiwan Strait. 初期に福建省の知事、台湾からの投資を集めるために貢献した
Xi is part of a generation of princelings, or children of former Chinese leaders. His father, Xi Zhongxun, was a leading figure in the 1949 communist revolution. 彼の父は独立運動の主要なメンバーで太子党のひとりでもある
Saturday's Resolution 1747 may affect Iran's economy but does not touch on its oil industry. Iran is the world's fourth largest oil producer. 安保理はイランに対する制裁決議案1747を決定し、経済制裁を課すこととしたがイランの 石油産業に影響の無い形としている。イランは世界第4位の石油産出国である。
It imposes an embargo on all conventional weapons Iran can sell and freezes the assets abroad of 28 individuals, institutions and companies, including Bank Sepah, as the United States has already done, isolating it from international financing. 決議案は全ての通常兵器の禁輸、28の個人、企業、団体の資産凍結を決めており、Sepah銀行 の国際金融システムからの遮断を決めている。
The text calls on -- but does not order -- nations and international financial institutions to restrict new grants, credits and loans to Iran. Western diplomats believe the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund will heed the call. また決議案は各国および国際的な金融機関のイランに対するローンや信用提供の自主的停止 を求めている(ただし、義務化はしていない)。世界銀行やIMFがこの要求に留意するもの と見なされている。
The resolution also calls for a voluntary travel embargo on Iranian officials and Revolutionary Guard commanders listed in the text and urges restrictions on the import of heavy weapons to Iran. 更に、決議案はイランの政府高官や革命防衛隊の指揮官などリストに上げられた人物の旅行に 対する自主的な受け入れ拒否を求め、イランへの武器の自主的な禁輸を求めている。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://news.www.infoseek.co.jp/world/story/25yomiuri20070325it03/ イラン追加制裁決議、全会一致で採択…国連安保理 (読売新聞)
ttp://www.state.gov/p/us/rm/2007/82163.htm UN Security Council Resolution on Iran Nicholas Burns, Under Secretary for Political Affairs Conference Call Briefing With Members of the Press Washington, DC March 24, 2007
It's a significant international rebuke to Iran and it's a significant tightening of international pressure on Iran. It's the second Chapter 7 resolution in the last three months and this one is substantially stronger than the first. And we do believe it's going to leave Iran even more isolated than it has been. この決議案は3ヶ月間に2度目に決定された、7章参照の決議案で、イランへの国際社会の圧力 を強めるものである。今回の決議案は前回よりも厳しいもので、イランは更なる孤立化に直面 している。
This resolution specifically asks the Director General of the IAEA Mohamed ElBaradei to report back to the Security Council on whether or not Iran is complying with this resolution in 60 days. So, that would be 60 days from now, the latter part of May. If Iran does not comply within 60 days and this trigger mechanism would ask the Council to adopt further sanctions, and that would open the way for a third Security Council resolution if, as necessary, in the month of May. この決議案はIAEAが決議案の求める行為を、今後60日以内に実施したかを国連安保理に報 告することを求めている。つまり、今後60日以内にイランが取り決めた内容に従わないのであ れば安保理は次の行為に移ることになる。5月末にその期限が来ることになる。(後略)
The following is a statement by the Foreign Ministers of China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States of America, with the Support of the High Representative of the European Union: 国務省ファイル:対イラン、安保理決議案1747可決について、英米中ロ仏独外相の声明文
We urge Iran to take this opportunity to engage with us all and to find a negotiated way forward. Our proposals would bring far-reaching benefits to Iran and to the region, and they provide a means to address the international community's concerns while taking account of Iran's legitimate interests. In a region that has known too much instability and violence, let us find an agreed way forward that builds confidence and promotes peace and mutual respect. In this spirit, we propose further talks with the Islamic Republic of Iran to see if a mutually acceptable way can be found to open negotiations.
一方、イランのファルス通信は24日、拘束された英兵15人が「侵略的行為について弁明 するため」首都テヘランに移送されたと報じた。軍参謀本部報道官によれば、英兵は尋問に 対し、イラン領海にいると認識していたことを認めたという。 -------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,2042289,00.html Seized Britons face prosecution after Tehran claims 'confession' 英・ガーディアン -------------------------------------------------------------------- 時事は「イラン海軍」と書いているけれど It was also confirmed yesterday that the men had been detained by members of the naval force of the Revolutionary Guard, the organisation accused by both the US and Britain of channelling arms and other material to Shia militias in Iraq. 実際は革命防衛隊のやった事が確認されている。国内では大きなニュースになっていないけ れど、英国の外交的危機であることは確かで、プエブロ号事件とかを思い出させる。この事 件が、イランのトップの指示による行為なのか、それとも現場の革命防衛隊のお先走りの行 為であるのか、解釈について意見が分かれていて、その解釈次第で重大さが変化する。
>>164 "The policy and diplomatic issues have been solved - this is now down to implementation. The Macanese and Chinese have made clear that they want to ensure implementation of the agreement is consistent with their own laws and with their international obligations. We are bringing Treasury expertise to help the Macanese and Chinese wade through some of these implementation issues," http://www.treasury.gov/press/releases/hp326.htm アメリカ財務省広報リリース:グレイザー副次官補の中国訪問について
Taro Aso, Japan's foreign minister, risked upsetting his country's strongest ally by suggesting US diplomats in the Middle East would never solve the region's problems because they have "blue eyes and blond hair". ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/07/03/23/10112933.html ロイター Published: 23/03/2007 12:00 AM (UAE) Japan minister raps 'blond' diplomats in Mideast Reuters
Tokyo: Blond, blue-eyed Westerners probably can't be as successful at Middle East diplomacy as Japanese with their "yellow faces", Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso was quoted by media as saying in a weekend speech.
>>201,205 インテルの中国ファブについてのWSJの解説記事から抜粋すると ・・・don't require cutting-edge production technology that U.S. authorities wouldn't likely approve for export to China. アメリカ政府が中国への移転を許可しそうに無い、最先端のテクノロジーを必要としない工場 である。 ・・・ The Dalian investment, though a major boon for China's efforts to develop its technology industry, is far less than recent price tags of $3.5 billion to $4 billion on Intel's newest microprocessor plants. One reason is that the company can transfer used production tools -- the biggest expense in such factories -- from existing factories to the new factory. インテルの最近のマイクロプロセサーの工場は$3.5Bから$4Bの投資を必要とするが、中国 の工場は、それらよりははるかに低いレベルのものである。投資額の低いひとつの理由は、イ ンテルが使用済みの工場の設備を(そうした設備は投資の大きな部分を占める)既存の工場か ら中国の工場にまわすことが出来る為である。 ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB117485972335148336.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us_business
このShatt al-Arabが何故、いわくつきであるのかを説明しているブログがあって: ttp://pajamasmedia.com/2007/03/empire_of_the_mullahs_irans_im.php 簡単なまとめとしては: The Narrows: A waterway beset by ethnic cleansing. * Native Arab population of up to 500,000 “relocated.” * Resistance jailed, forced to confess, and executed. * Most politically sensitive area in the Middle East.<=== * Controls oil shipments and trade routes * Iranian zone is the launch point for Iranian covert operations in Iraq. * Iran now controlling up to 40,000 agents in Iraq.
At the same time, history tells us that societies in which capitalism flourishes have been incompatible with authoritarian government control. So far, China has been able to finesse these internal contradictions. 歴史の教えるところに拠れば、資本主義の花開くところでは、強権的な政府の支配は相容 れない。しかし、今までのところ、中国は、その内部矛盾に対処してきた。
At the same time, history tells us that societies in which capitalism flourishes have been incompatible with authoritarian government control. So far, China has been able to finesse these internal contradictions. 歴史の教えるところに拠れば、資本主義の花開くところでは、強権的な政府の支配は相容 れない。しかし、今までのところ、中国は、その内部矛盾に対処してきた。
Czech President Vaclav Klaus said on Wednesday that fighting global warming has turned into a 'religion' that replaced the ideology of communism and threatens to clip basic freedoms. チェコの大統領が、先日アメリカ上院で証言を行い、温暖化を戦う運動は共産主義に代わる宗教だと証言した。
The right-wing president, a free-market champion, wrote to the U.S. Congress that adopting tough environmental policies to fight climate change would have destructive impact on national economies. 'Communism has been replaced by the threat of an ambitious environmentalism,' Klaus wrote in response to questions from the U.S. House of Representatives' Committee on Energy and Commerce.
・・Shinzo Abe repeatedly refused today to acknowledge state responsibility in recruiting the so-called comfort women, but offered them an apology. 安倍首相は再び従軍慰安婦の強制連行を否定したが、慰安婦への謝罪を行なった
But Mr. Abe carefully chose his words today to avoid repeating his earlier denial, saying only: “What I said about coercion during the news conference, all of it became news, so that’s the way it was.” 安倍首相は注意深く言葉を選び「私の言ったことは、強制制に関してであり、そのことが ニュースになった」とのべた。
ロイター記事はエネルギー問題に具体的な新規合意などが無かったことに注目している。 There was no immediate sign of major new energy deals between Russia, the world's second biggest oil exporter, and resource-hungry China. The leaders pledged to increase "bilateral, long-term strategic cooperation" on energy but signed only a protocol to increase Russian oil deliveries to China, something already promised in the past by Moscow. ttp://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL2647393820070326 (ロイター)
などの事件があり、さらに: With this in mind, there have been recent indications from U.S. and Israeli intelligence sources that the British MI6 was engaged in an operation to extract one of its agents from Iran, but a leak tipped MOIS off to the plan. According to an unconfirmed source, the IRGC nabbed the British personnel, as well as the agent, to use as a bargaining chip in order to secure the release of the five detained Iranians. If these negotiations go poorly for Iran, the Britons could very well be tried for espionage. アメリカとイスラエルの諜報関連ソースに拠れば、英国のMI6はイランから一人のエージェ ントを引き抜く事を進めていて、それがイランの諜報機関にバレてしまった。イランの革命防 衛隊が英国のスパイとイランのエージェントを逮捕し、それを西側に拘束されている5人のイラ ン人の引渡し交渉の材料にしているという。この交渉が上手くいかないと英国人がスパイ罪で 起訴されることになる可能性がある。
The motive behind the seizure of the British servicemen is still unclear, but the operation likely was planned well in advance by key figures within the IRGC. At this point, the Iranians are watching their backs closely, and are willing to take the political risk of flaring up another diplomatic dispute in order to plug further intelligence leaks. 英国兵士の拘束の背景は明確では無いのだが、この計画がイラン革命防衛隊の主要なメンバー によって前もって企画されたことは大いにありそうである。この事件でイランは外交的衝突を 起こす政治的リスクを覚悟の上で、諜報問題でのリークを防ぐべく、行動に出たといえる。
WSJ(アジア版、寄稿):日本から北朝鮮に渡った93,340の朝鮮人について ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 今日のWSJに寄稿されたものだけれど、たいへん問題が多いと思う。筆者は Ms. Morris-Suzuki is Professor of Japanese History at Australian National University. Her book "Exodus to North Korea: Shadows from Japan's Cold War," (Rowman and Littlefield) will be published this week. This essay is adapted from an article in Japan Focus. という、オーストラリア国立大学の日本史の教授だと言うのだけれど、いろいろ評判の良か らぬ「Japan Focus」に掲載されたもののリメイクのような。
筆者の主張は:
1)北朝鮮への在日朝鮮人の帰国は、日本政府と北朝鮮が秘密裏に計画したものである We now know that it was the product of a deliberate policy, designed and implemented at the height of the Cold War by the Japanese and North Korean authorities often working in concert and supported in various ways by the Soviet Union, the United States and the International Red Cross.
2)芦田首相が計画し赤十字に実施を押し付けた ・・・among them former Prime Minister Hitoshi Ashida and Katsuo Okazaki (a former foreign minister and influential ruling party power broker), began to develop strategies to encourage Koreans in Japan to "return" to North Korea. Knowing that this was a politically explosive issue, they kept their role in the scheme covert and sought to ensure that the exodus was carried out under the auspices of the Red Cross.
3)日本のプロパガンダ宣伝と厚生省の福祉切捨てで帰還の圧力をかけた The vast majority of those who ultimately left were persuaded by a subsequent propaganda campaign, combined with pressure from within Japan. The most important source of this pressure was an energetic drive by Japan's Ministry of Health and Welfare, initiated at the start of 1956, to slash the limited welfare payments available to members of the Korean community -- a policy that must surely have made the prospect of life in communist North Korea more appealing.
4)日本政府は多量の北朝鮮からの帰還者を心配していて、それが北朝鮮政策を歪めている Anxiety about a possible mass "re-return" of the ethnic Koreans who left under the repatriation scheme is also a little-discussed factor at work in Japanese government calculations on its relationship with North Korea.
>>258-259 ジャパンフォーカスをチェックしてみると、この筆者の評論は(WSJの寄稿とほぼ同じ) ttp://www.japanfocus.org/products/details/2382 The Forgotten Victims of the North Korean Crisis By Tessa Morris-Suzuki ---------------------------------------------------------------- このセンセイは従軍慰安婦についても、ジャパンフォーカスに評論を書いていて ttp://www.japanfocus.org/products/details/2373 Japan’s ‘Comfort Women’: It's time for the truth (in the ordinary, everyday sense of the word) By Tessa Morris-Suzuki これも滅茶苦茶な書き物で、これが歴史の教授とは・・・
"This is my blood and sweat My private property All of sudden it will be demolished I have seen what happened to others Now I regret that I kept silence before
"This is my blood and sweat My private property All of sudden it will be demolished I have seen what happened to others Now I regret that I kept silence before ......
It is all the more depressing, therefore, that the Western response has been so feeble. Diplomats hint at a “face-saving” solution. Analysts point to splits and divisions in Tehran. Some misguided “understanding” of the kidnapping seems to inhibit any response that may exacerbate tensions. This is precisely the wrong message. It encourages Tehran’s hardliners and probably prolongs the bargaining over the men’s detention. Even the Shia-dominated Iraqi Government has called on Iran to release the men ? a far bolder call than anything coming from London or Washington. The coalition cannot allow Tehran to intimidate its neighbour. It must set a deadline for the men’s release and tell Iran bluntly that its piracy justifies immediate and more drastic sanctions. この事件に対する西側の反応が、余りに弱弱しいものであることには落胆させられる。外交官 は「面子を立てる」解決法をいい、アナリストはイラン政府内部の対膣抗争があるとかいって いる。誤った、イランの拉致事件の「理解」は、事を荒立てることを避けようとしているよう だ。それは、誤ったメッセージである。そういう事をすると、イラン側をより強硬にして解決 の為のバーゲニングを長引かせるだけだ。シーア派の多数を占める(親イランの)イラク政府 でさえ兵士の解放を要求し、米英政府より強い調子で話している。多国籍軍はイランが隣国を 恫喝することを許すわけにはゆかない。だから兵士の開放に期限を区切ってイランに要求し、 海賊行為は直接の、より強力な制裁につながると強く言うべきなのだ。
イランの副外務大臣Mehzi Mostafaviは、 ”It should become clear whether their entry (into Iran) was intentional or unintentional. After that is clarified, the necessary decision will be made,” Mostafavi said. 「兵士が意図的にイラン領海に入ったのかどうかを調査する必要がある。その結果を見て 判断すべき」とのべた。
- an indication the country might be seeking a way out of the confrontation with Britain. この発言は西側との衝突をさけ、事件解決の方法を模索している表れなのかも しれない。
Marine general James Cartwright, commander of STRATCOM (Strategic Command) pointed out that, in the face of increasing hacker attacks on Department of Defense and civilian computer networks, the best defense is a good offense. 国防省などへの(中国からの)サイバー攻撃、ハッカー攻撃に対してSTRATCOMの James Cartwright米海兵隊大将は、最良のネットの防衛は良い攻撃である、といい始めている。
STRATCOM wants Congress to pass laws that make it easier, or even possible, for the United States to locate, and go after, those who are already waging Cyber War on the United States. STRATCOMは議会でアメリカに対するサイバー攻撃を仕掛ける相手を突き止め、追跡 することを容易にする法案を作るように求めている。
STRATCOM has apparently given some closed (classified) briefings to Congress, detailing American vulnerabilities, and possible countermeasures that could be undertaken, if new laws were passed to make some of the move legal. STRATCOMはサイバー攻撃についてのアメリカの脆弱性や、考え得る対応策について 秘密に議会に報告している事は確かで、合法的な調査追跡を容易にすべく、考え得る法案に ついて話をしている。
Our real estate analyst is not getting too excited about land prices 金融機関の不動産アナリストは地価上昇にそれほどエキサイトしていない。 実際の地価上昇では、最近上昇率が鈍化してきている (詳細説明、略) The BoJ does not think there is a bubble now, but does have a stronger impression of land prices than the official figures 日銀は、現在バブルがあると思っていない。しかし地価に対しては強い関心を示している (詳細説明、略)
Anyone blinded by east Asia’s dazzling rise into thinking that the entire region is one unending economic success story should ponder the case of South Korea. Once held up as a model of precocious development, which rapidly transformed itself from an agricultural into an industrialised society, east Asia’s third largest economy is sinking into premature middle age. 東アジアの急速な成長で、その地域が継続的な経済的なサクセスストーリーであると思ってい る人は韓国について熟慮してみるべきだ。かっては経済発展のモデルとして農業経済から急速 に産業社会に移行した韓国は東アジア第3位の経済規模を誇るが、早すぎる中年期に差し掛かっ ている。
What went wrong? Korea has long aspired to Japan’s traditional industrial model. Unfortunately, it has succeeded in copying too many of its weaknesses and not enough of its strengths. Its growth depends heavily on exports, concentrated in a relatively narrow range of manufacturing industries. Much of its domestic economy lacks dynamism and is hobbled by restrictive practices. With the arguable exception of television soap operas, it has failed in recent years to develop thrusting new businesses. Korea’s economy is also dominated even more heavily than Japan’s by large incumbent producers, the chaebol, which stifle emerging rivals at home while increasingly placing their own investments abroad.
QUESTION: You had a comment yesterday on Prime Minister Abe's apology on the comfort women issue and there has been some criticism that his response actually lacks sincerity. What sort of things would the U.S. hope for from Japan in dealing with this issue in the future? And is there any way this might have a negative impact on U.S.-Japan relations? 昨日貴方は、安倍首相の従軍慰安婦の謝罪発言にコメントしたが、安倍首相の言葉に誠意 が無いとの批判がある。アメリカはこの問題に関して日本に、将来何を望むか?日米関係 への悪影響はあるか?
MR. CASEY: Well, look. First of all, Japan is a strong ally of the United States. It's one of our major international partners on a whole series of issues and I fully expect that we will continue to have the kinds of good relations between our countries that has been the case throughout the last few decades. In terms of what Prime Minister Abe had said, I really don't have anything more beyond what I had said to you yesterday. We appreciate that that apology was made. We certainly do think it's important that the Japanese Government continue to address this issue. まず第一に日本はアメリカの強力な同盟国である。多くの国際的イシューについて日本は アメリカのパートナーであり、良好な日米関係の継続がまことに望ましい。それは過去数 十年間継続してきたものである。安倍首相の言葉については、昨日コメントしたこと以上 のものは無い。我々は謝罪を歓迎する。日本政府が引き続きこの問題を検討することは重 要とアメリカ政府は思う。
US State Department spokesman Tom Casey said the apology was appreciated by Washington. "We appreciate that the apology was made. It is a step forward,'' Mr Casey said. Mr Casey called on Tokyo to continue efforts to resolve the issue.
''This is a very difficult issue and we certainly want to see the Japanese continue to address this and to deal with it in a forthright and responsible manner that acknowledges the gravity of the crimes that were committed,'' he said.
>>295>>296>>298 納得しますた。さすが外電さんですね。 なんか、質問が明らかに誘導尋問で、答える方もそれに乗っかっちゃったという 雰囲気でありますね。 しかし、最後に出てきたgravity of the crimesは、口が滑ったんでしょうね。 ただ、シーファー発言にしても、この副報道官にしても、根本的に東京裁判史観 の持ち主だから、これは根深い問題だと。
Bruce Cumings, a history professor at the University of Chicago, also argued that it is unwise to seek agreements with North Korea based on trust, and that any accord with the communist regime should depend on verification. "I don't think Korean unification will occur while Kim Jong-il is in power," Cumings said at a luncheon speech sponsored by the South Korean embassy, referring to North Korea's 66-year-old top leader. ブルース・カミングス教授:「金正日が生きている間に朝鮮半島の統一は無い」 ゆるやかな連邦制度ができて、10-15年くらい続くというのはあり得るかもしれない。
The most unproductive, and "even stupid," U.S. policy has been to divide world affairs strictly in terms of good and evil, Cumings said. "You may think that North Koreans are evil, but you have to have a policy for what to do about that," he said. It would also be a mistake to seek agreements with North Korea built on trust, the professor said. The agreements have to be build on verification, "having inspectors on the ground, on all kinds of technology," he said. 世界を善と悪で分けてみるアメリカの外交は馬鹿のようなもので、北朝鮮が悪魔であ るとしても、我々はそれに対して、どうするのかという、政策を持たなくてはいけない。
強制連行がフィクションである事を説明されているのは、素敵ですが、朝日と吉田清次 にふれていれば・・ しかし、最後のセンテンスが効いていますね The harder its neighbors or the United States push it for apologies, the harder Japan may start pushing back.
<バーナンキFRB議長の議会証言、テキスト> ttp://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/2007/20070328/default.htm Testimony of Chairman Ben S. Bernanke The economic outlook Before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress March 28, 2007 ------------------------------------------------- WSJの表現では BERNANKE EXPECTS sustainable U.S. economic growth and a gradual easing of price pressures, suggesting no rate cut is imminent. The Fed chairman also said subprime turmoil hasn't hit the broader economy. ttp://online.wsj.com/home/us?refresh=on
Crude oil futures rose Wednesday to their highest close in more than six months, climbing for the seventh straight session as concern that a standoff over 15 U.K. sailors held by Iran will escalate and send prices skyrocketing. 水曜日の石油先物価格は、6ヶ月来の高値をつけ&64.08となった。イランが英国兵士15人を 拘束して以来、緊張の高まりから7日連続の価格上昇を見せている。(後略)
北朝鮮は、核問題をめぐる6か国協議で合意した核施設の稼働停止などの措置について、 マカオの銀行に凍結されていた資金の返還が確認された日から30日後に実行に移すと 主張していたことがわかり、来月中旬の期限が合意どおり守られない可能性が出ています。 ----------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/25fa192e-dc3e-11db-a21d-000b5df10621.html Nuclear talks wait for Macao cash transfer By Anna Fifield in Seoul Published: March 27 2007 11:56 フィナンシャルタイムズ
Under the February 13 agreement, the US pledged to “resolve” the BDA problem within 30 days and North Korea said it would permit IAEA weapons inspectors to enter the country for the first time in four years. 北朝鮮の主張は↑のような解釈に基づくものと思えるけれど、2月13日の6者会合の合意文書 のなかには、BDA問題への記述は無い↓30日以内に、ワーキンググループの会合を開くことを 決めているだけ。
Volatility climbed on yen options as investors exited bets on riskier assets financed by borrowing in Japan's currency. 円オプション相場のボラタリティが増大しており、投資家が円のキャリー・トレードの巻き戻 しに動いている。
The yen reached a nine-day high against the dollar as a slowing U.S. economy and tension between Iran and the U.K. led investors to pare back on so-called carry-trade bets. Japan's currency touched a three-month high in early March as investors trimmed carry-trade wagers amid a slide in global stocks. 円は対ドルで9日間の高値をつけ、イランと英国の緊張が増加しており、投資家がキャリー・ト レードの巻き戻しに動く材料になっている。日本円は3月に3ヶ月来の高値を記録しキャリー・ト レード解消の影響が出ている。
``The market is concerned about funding carry-trade positions with yen,'' said Paul Mackel, a senior currency strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc in London. ``There is concern about the outlook for the U.S. economy; geopolitical risk is helping bring a bid to volatility.'' ロンドンのHSBCホールディングスの通貨ストラテジスト、Paul Mackelは「市場は円キャリー トレードのポジションを気にしている」という「アメリカ経済の先行きに懸念があり、イラン などの地政学的リスクがボラタリティを高めている」という。
The thing I like most about the "Hillary 1984" political ad on YouTube isn't the face, shrouded in a ghastly pixel haze, but the voice. Her voice recedes into a weird, unreal echo. Truth to tell, you could insert any of the faces imploring us now to make them president, and achieve the same effect. ようつべにうpされた、政治的メッセージである「ヒラリー1984」ビデオの主な特徴は、その 荒っぽい粒子の画面に現れるヒラリーの顔ではなく声(のトーン)にあると思う。この声は、 録音されたものにエコーがかけられて、非現実的なものになっている。つまり(ヒラリーでな くても、誰でも)大統領候補の画面をリミックスして、同じ政治的効果を上げることが出来る。
このビデオは製作者のPhil de Vellisが、自宅のMacを使って製作したと発表し、「ゲーム が変化した」と述べているけれど、それは正しいだろう。
Some say ads such as "Hillary 1984" are democratizing politics. But that's just hardware -- more sellers throwing stuff at us. The bigger change is happening inside the public's mental software. No poll can capture how the voting mind is processing the political inbox today. What's not to like about that?
Despite all the military posturing, the United States is just as unwilling as Iran to enter into a direct military confrontation with so much at stake in Iraq
“The Iraqi people are beginning to say ? see positive changes. I want to share with you how two Iraqi bloggers ? they have bloggers in Baghdad, just like we’ve got here ? (laughter) ? “Displaced families are returning home, marketplaces are seeing more activity, stores that were long shuttered are now reopening. We feel safer about moving in the city now. Our people want to see this effort succeed. We hope the governments in Baghdad and America do not lose their resolve.” ? Transcript of Bush’s remarks today to the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association.
おまいら、フランシス・フクヤマが日本について何か行ってるお The Trouble with Japanese Nationalism http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/fukuyama2 >In fact, unlike Germany, Japan has never come to terms with its own responsibility for >the Pacific War. でた、決まり文句。
>But there is no other museum in Japan that gives an alternative view of Japan’s >twentieth-century history. おまいの国には原爆が悪いことだったという趣旨のミュージアムがあるのかよ。
>Japan’s unilateral revision of Article 9, viewed against the backdrop of its new nationalism, >would isolate Japan from virtually the whole of Asia. 9条を守る会マンセー
北朝鮮の資金が凍結されているマカオの銀行バンコ・デルタ・アジア(BDA)を傘下に 持つデルタ・アジア・フィナンシャルグループの区宗傑会長は29日、同行が扱ってきた 北朝鮮の口座には違法性がなく米財務省の調査は不当とする声明を、紙面広告としてマカ オや香港で発行される複数の新聞紙に発表した。(後略) ------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/afx/2007/03/29/afx3562521.html Macau's BDA owner rebuts allegations of bank's involvement in NKorea deals 03.29.07, 5:36 AM ET フォーブズ:澳門のDBAの経営者が、北朝鮮関連の違法行為への関与を否定
・・the bank's owner Stanley Au said, refuting allegations that the bank had been involved in illicit transactions. And no irregularity was found in any transaction that proved BDA or DAC got involved in any of the illicit activities that have been alleged,' he said. 'There was no evidence that BDA and its subsidiaries participated or got involved in such illicit activities and BDA and its subsidiaries deny such allegations,' he said. ------------------------------------------------------- 北朝鮮や中国共産党幹部に強いコネクションを持つといわれるStanley Auが、地元の澳門で 身の潔白を主張している、と言う図式で、汚職疑惑政治家が地元で濡れ衣を主張するのと良 く似た構図のような。それにしてもBDAが実質的に凍結されたのは2005年9月なので、今に なってこういう動きをしているのは何か政治的思惑でもあるのか知らん?
1月に起こった中国のミサイルによる衛星破壊テストでは衛星破壊そのものよりも、中国が宇 宙軍事技術に焦点を当てて急速に技術開発を進めていることを問題視する声がある。米軍の James Cartwright大将は急速な中国の動きを「他国にとっての目覚まし」であると述べた。 また中国は「衛星通信のジャミングや、広範なアンチ衛星技術を開発している」とした。
March 29-30, 2007 Room 562 Dirksen Senate Office Building First Street and Constitution Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20510
Hearing Co Chairs: Commissioners William Reinsch and Larry Wortzel Hearing Agenda: HTML | PDF Thursday, March 29
Panel I: Congressional Perspectives * Congressman Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) * Congresswoman Madeleine Bordallo (D-Guam) (PDF) * Congressman Tim Ryan (D-OH) (HTML) (PDF) * Congressman Duncan Hunter (R-CA) (HTML) (PDF)
Panel II: Beijing’s Doctrine on the Conduct of “Irregular Forms of Warfare” * Dr. William J. Schneider, Jr., Chairman, Defense Science Board, Washington, DC (HTML) (PDF) * Mr. Michael G. Vickers, Senior Vice President for Strategic Studies, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, Washington, DC * Dr. Derek S. Reveron, Associate Professor of National Security Affairs, U.S. Naval War College, Newport, RI (HTML) (PDF) * Dr. Robert J. Bunker, CEO, Counter-OPFOR Corporation, Claremont, CA (HTML) (PDF)
Panel III: PLA Modernization in Traditional Warfare Capabilities: Force Integration and Force Projection * General James E. Cartwright, Commander, U.S. Strategic Command, Offutt Air Force Base, NE * Dr. Andrew S. Erickson, Assistant Professor, Strategic Research Department, U.S. Naval War College, Newport, RI (HTML) (PDF) * Mr. Cortez A. Cooper, III, Director of the East Asia Studies Center, Hicks and Associates, Inc., McLean, VA (HTML) (PDF)
Panel IV: The Taiwan Strait Military Balance * RADM Eric A. McVadon USN (Ret), Director of Asia-Pacific Studies, The Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, Inc., Washington, DC (HTML) (PDF) * Dr. Bernard D. Cole, Professor of International History, National War College, Washington, DC (HTML) (PDF) * Mr. Mark Cozad, Senior Defense Intelligence Analyst, Defense Intelligence Agency, Washington, DC
[シンガポール 30日 ロイター] 30日付の英フィナンシャル・タイムズ(FT) 紙によると、シンガポールは、複数の有力投資家から、現在は緩めとなっているヘッジ ファンドに対する規制を強化するよう迫られている。(後略) ------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/c70a8a02-de36-11db-afa7-000b5df10621.html Singapore pressed on hedge fund rules By Florian Gimbel in Hong Kong and John Burton in Singapore Published: March 29 2007 22:07
Industry experts say some international investors are increasingly reluctant to invest in smaller Singapore-based hedge funds because of what they see as lax regulation. 業界の専門家に拠れば、シンガポールの中小ヘッジファンドへの投資にはためらう声が国際 投資家の間に増加しているという。規制の緩さが原因という。
Hedge funds seeking to set up in Singapore can do so in less than one week. By contrast, Hong Kong hedge fund managers face tough examination and a licensing process that can take 18-20 weeks. シンガポールでヘッジファンドを設立することは1週刊以内に可能であるが、香港ではヘッジ ファンドは厳しいチェックを受け、ライセンス取得には18-20週間が必要である。
At the end of last year, Singapore’s hedge fund managers had $10bn of assets under management, compared with $17bn in Hong Kong, which has benefited from its proximity to the booming economies of north Asia. 昨年末に、シンガポールのヘッジファンドは$10Bの資産を有しており、香港は$17Bである。
激しい生鮮食品を除くベースで99.4となり、前年同月比で0.1%下落した。下落は2006年 4月以来、10カ月ぶりで、原油安の影響でガソリンなど石油製品価格が下落に転じたのが 主因。(後略) -------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/424b3dd0-de6c-11db-afa7-000b5df10621.html Deflation returns to Japan in February By David Turner in Tokyo Published: March 30 2007 04:17
元の発言はこれ。 ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/81204.htm These multilateral efforts have had a stabilizing effect and reduced the negative impact in the region of the D.P.R.K.'s nuclear test last October. The very important alliances we have with Japan and the Republic of Korea are essential to maintaining regional security, but the Six-Party process also gave people in the region the sense that there was a mechanism to deal with this problem. Without that process we could have seen a much more dangerous counter-reaction in the region.
>>369 実際には、アメリカ国内でも中国関連のスパイ事件は日常茶飯事で・・・ ttp://www.presstelegram.com/news/ci_5552957 China link surfaces in spy case By Jeremiah Marquez, Associated Press Article Launched: 03/29/2007 08:56:52 PM PDT
A recent editorial by Henry Kissinger called for "maximizing incentives" and "removing frictions to active cooperation" between the U.S. and Russia. If Ronald Reagan had had that mindset I would still be playing chess for the Soviet Union! Was President Reagan "removing frictions" when he told Gorbachev to "tear down this wall"? The lack of Western political will to stand up and acknowledge the true state of affairs in Russia only encourages Mr. Putin and his gang to push further.
President Quotes Iraq the Model, Nutroots Go Nuts ブッシュ大統領がITMブログに言及したので、ネットサヨが怒り狂っている
Yesterday President Bush quoted from the well-known Iraqi blog, Iraq the Model, and today the dim-witted Kos Kidz are flinging around conspiracy accusations. Here’s a “recommended diary” that isn’t fooled by these Bush regime psy-ops: Daily Kos: Those Iraqi bloggers sure write like Karen Hughes. サヨクの運動家の集まるディリー・コスには、早速陰謀論が掲載されている。バクダッドの ブロガーはブッシュ政権のヤラセであるというもの。
And here’s another one that seeks to reveal the hidden hand of the All-Powerful Chimpy: Daily Kos: My trip to ‘Iraq The Model’. This diarist, going by the academic-sounding name “Dood Abides,” agrees that it’s all COINTELPRO mindgames; and he does mean all of it. Commenters helpfully point out that there’s even a connection between Iraq the Model and ... the dreaded Rovian master plan going by the name “Little Green Footballs.” 別の陰謀論では、チェイニー副大統領の悪辣なたくらみだと言う。中には、バクダッドのオ マル氏のブログは、保守派の我等LGFの回し者だと言う。
Oh no. I think they’re on to us. ったく、なんというアフォな説かと・・ UPDATE at 3/29/07 9:33:01 am:
The Democrat budget reported Wednesday proposes the largest tax increase in U.S. history? $392.5 billion over 5 years ?mainly to finance immense new spending through 2012.
The only realistic course, even after the latest insult represented by the British sailors’ seizure, is to sustain the policy of engagement, however thankless this seems. エンゲージメントはともかく、英国にせよアメリカにせよ、イランと話していないわ けではないのだけれど。
Historian documents Japan's role in sex slavery By Norimitsu Onishi Published: March 30, 2007 ************************************************************************************ ヨシアキ ヨシミの書斎写真付き 毎度オナジミですが、IHTにもシツコク登場。↓は掲載履歴
Controversy over the so-called comfort women has been inflamed again. The U.S. House of Representatives has been deliberating a draft resolution calling for the Japanese government to apologize over the matter by spurning the practice as slavery and human trafficking. Why has such a biased view of the issue prevailed? The Yomiuri Shimbun carried in-depth reports on the issue Tuesday. The writers are Masanobu Takagi, Hiroaki Matsunaga and Emi Yamada of the political news department. Starting today, The Daily Yomiuri will carry the stories in three installments.
To discuss the comfort women issue, it is indispensable to understand the social background of the time when prostitution was authorized and regulated by the government in Japan. Prostitution was tacitly permitted in limited areas up until 1957, when the law to prevent prostitution was enforced.
>>385 Comfort women received remuneration in return for sexual services at so-called comfort stations for military officers and soldiers. According to an investigation report publicized by the government on Aug. 4, 1993, on the issue of comfort women recruited into sexual service for the Japanese military, there is a record mentioning the establishment of such a brothel in Shanghai around 1932, and additional similar facilities were established in other parts of China occupied by the Imperial Japanese Army.
Some of them were under the direct supervision of the military authorities, but many of the brothels catering to soldiers were privately operated.
Modern historian Ikuhiko Hata, a former professor at Nihon University, says the comfort women system should be defined as the "battleground version of civilian prostitution."
Comfort women were not treated as "paramilitary personnel," unlike jugun kangofu (military nurses) and jugun kisha (military correspondents). During the war, comfort women were not called "jugun ianfu" (prostitutes for troops). Use of such generic terminology spread after the war. The latter description is said to have been used by writer Kako Senda (1924-2000) in his book titled "Jugun Ianfu" published in 1973. Thereafter, the usage of jugun ianfu prevailed.
>>385 In addition to Japanese women, women from the Korean Peninsula andTaiwan, both then under Japanese colonial rule, and China, the Philippines, Indonesia and other countries invaded by the Imperial Japanese Army were recruited as comfort women.
Hata estimates that 40 percent of the wartime comfort women were Japanese, 30 percent Chinese and other nationalities and 20 percent Korean.
The total number of comfort women has yet to be determined exactly.
According to a report compiled by Radhika Coomaraswany of the U.N. Commission on Human Rights in 1996, there were 200,000 comfort women from the Korean Peninsula alone. The figure in the report was based on information Coomaraswany had obtained in North Korea. But this report contained many factual errors, and its quoted sources lacked impartiality. Foreign Minister Taro Aso rejected the figure of 200,000 as "lacking objective evidence."
The reasons cited for the need for comfort women and wartime brothels are as follows:
-- To prevent military officers and soldiers from raping women and committing other sex crimes in occupied areas.
-- To prevent venereal disease from spreading through troops who would otherwise contact local prostitutes who did not receive periodic medical checks.
-- To prevent military secrets from being leaked by limiting the women who provided sexual services to officers and soldiers to recruited comfort women.
Such a system and the use of wartime brothels generally are not limited only to the Imperial Japanese military.
The U.S. troops that occupied Japan after the war used brothels provided by the Japanese side. There was a case in which U.S. military officials asked the Japanese authorities to provide women for sexual services. During the Vietnam War, brothels similar to those established for the former Japanese military were available to U.S. troops, a U.S. woman journalist has pointed out.
Hata said: "There were wartime brothels also for the German troops during World War II. Some women were forced into sexual slavery. South Korean troops had brothels during the Korean War, according to a finding by a South Korean researcher." (Mar. 30, 2007)
中国はこの件でアメリカ国内の国際貿易裁判所(U.S. Court of International Trade)に 提訴していたが、木曜日に判事はアメリカ政府が課徴金を課す権限を有すると審判した。 商務長官は、アメリカ政府は中国政府と課徴金について対話の用意があるとしている。ただ し、アメリカ国内法はネゴシエーションの対象外であると断っていいる。
The move raised fears of a trade war with China that could damage the dollar and U.S. stocks. "Whether today's decision will be reversed by the WTO or not, it will likely trigger possible retaliatory acts from China such as further diversification of its foreign-exchange reserves, which will likely hit the U.S. currency," Ashraf Laidi, chief currency strategist at CMC Markets, said in a note. ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB117525459934454485.html?mod=home_whats_news_us
``This decision is the most significant step toward a stronger trade policy with China than we have experienced in this decade,'' Republican Representative Phil English of Pennsylvania said in a statement today. 共和党のペンシルバニア代表、Phil Englishは「この決定は中国に対する、より強硬な通商政 策という意味で、たいへん大きなものであり、この10年来の(最大の)ものだ」と述べた。
``This is a response to the size of the trade deficit and Congress,'' said Jeffrey Bader, who heads China studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington. ``The administration wanted to do something that doesn't deliver a body blow to trade, but will be seen as responsive to domestic concerns.'' ブルッキングス研究所の中国研究者、Jeffrey Baderは「これは議会の、対中貿易赤字の規模に 対する反応である」とのべた。「政府は通商にボディ・ブローを与えない形で、何かをして見 せたい立場にある。しかしその措置は、国内むけの対応と見なされるだろう」という。
``You are going to see a proliferation of these cases now,'' said James Jochum, a partner at the law firm of Mayer, Brown, Rowe & Maw LLP in Washington and the former top Commerce Department official responsible for deciding import complaints. ``This is a significant move. It isn't a one-off thing.'' ワシントンの法律事務所、Mayer, Brown, Rowe & Maw LLP のパートナーであるJames Jochum は「この種のケースの拡散が、これから出てくることだろう」と述べた。彼は前商務省官僚で 輸入被害問題の責任者であった。「これは重大な動きと言うべきで、スイッチが入ったという 事だ」
As expected, the U.S. industry groups and political critics of Beijing's economic policies cheered the government's decision. The National Association of Manufacturers President John Engler described the announcement as "an important step toward balanced trade with China," and key Democratic lawmakers, including House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel of New York, said the action was "long overdue." 予想されるとおり、アメリカ国内の産業グループと、中国の通商政策に批判的な政治評論家は 政府の決定を歓迎している。全米製造業協会(NAM)の会長、John Englerは、この発表を 「中国との通商をバランスさせる為の重要な一歩」と評している。民主党議員の Charles Rangel は、この決定を「長きに渡って待ちわびていた」ものと述べた。
Today the U.S. Treasury Department took another step to crimp the style of Russian weapons trafficker Viktor Bout. 今日、財務省はロシアの(悪名高い)武器商人であるViktor Boutを制裁する措置をとった。 かれはコンゴなどのアフリカ諸国への武器密輸商売で、安保理でもその行動を非難されて いる。彼の関与する7つの会社と3人の個人に制裁措置が取られた。(後略) --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Viktor Boutはタリバンへの武器供給の疑いももたれている。この手のアングラビジネスの 制裁の為に財務省ががむばっているのは印象的。恐らくは、どの国でもアングラビジネスの アンタッチャブルに対処するひとつの強力な手法は金融当局の適切な規制や制裁措置。日本 国内の場合、この分野は、まだ、たいへん歯がゆい感じがするけど。
“Historically, the Iranians are very, very cautious about not going after Americans directly,” says Washington-based scholar Trita Parsi. During tense confrontations in the past?the U.S. shoot-down of an Iranian airliner in 1988, for example?Tehran has sometimes proved notably restrained in its reaction.
1930年に上院金融委員会で審議された悪名高い「スムート・ハーレイ関税法案」(notorious Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930)は世界的な貿易戦争と大恐慌の被害を深めることに 貢献したのだが、77年後の今になって「中国の脅威」が言われ、上院金融委員会などで、その 同じ精神がよみがえりつつある。
私が最近、議会の歳入委員会(Ways and Means Committee)に呼ばれて、アメリカと中国の経 済関係について証言した折にも同じ感じを強く受けることがあった。今や保護貿易主義は実態 の無いものではなくて、リアルのものである。(This time, it looks like the real thing.)
私が思うに、保護貿易や、あるいは通貨(交換比率に干渉する)法案は2007年末には法制化され ている可能性がある。(I suspect a protectionist trade or currency bill could become law by year-end 2007.)
私がそう信じるのは、議会の規制委員会で、アメリカの中国バッシャーの代表である民主党の Chuck Schumer上院議員や共和党の Lindsey Graham 上院議員、その賛同者などの発言を聞く為 で、彼等は27.5%の輸入課徴金を主張している。彼等は中国の通貨が過小評価されているので それを相殺するためだと言う。2005年には67人の上院議員がそれに賛同している。
Omar, Thank you, thank you, thank you! Seeing our kids @ YOUR HOUSE, brought tears to my eyes.You are wonderful for sharing,just think ,if a mom, dad, grandparents etc, reconize their loved one . (オマルさん、ありがとう、貴方の家の中で息子の写っている写真を見て涙が出た。 写真を掲載してくれてありがとう、母親や祖父母にとってイラクにいる息子を見るこ とは何より(ry
“Unless the negotiations show some sign of progress in the next few hours this agreement will most likely not come together,” a White House spokeswoman said.
The US has been pushing Korea to include a timetable for allowing access to the rice market but Seoul has insisted rice ? a sensitive, emotionally-charged sector in Korea ? must be excluded from the deal. Although beef is not part of the deal, US negotiators have warned that an FTA will not be ratified unless Seoul allows the full resumption of meat imports that were suspended following an outbreak of mad cow disease in the US but have now been deemed safe. アメリカ側はコメの開放にむけたタイムテーブルや、牛肉の輸入解禁を求めていて、必須 としている。
【ニューヨーク1日共同】米有力紙ニューヨーク・タイムズは3月31日と4月1日付の 紙面で、従軍慰安婦や教科書問題をめぐり日本の姿勢を批判する記事を相次いで掲載した。 安倍首相の訪米を前に同紙の論調は厳しい内容が目立つ。31日付では従軍慰安婦への旧 日本軍の関与を指摘してきた吉見義明・中央大教授のインタビューを伝え、安倍首相らが 教授の見解否定に躍起になってきたとする記事を掲載。[ 2007年4月1日16時51分 ] ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/01/world/asia/01japan.html?_r=1&oref=slogin Japan’s Textbooks Reflect Revised History By NORIMITSU ONISHI Published: April 1, 2007 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/31/world/asia/31yoshimi.html In Japan, a Historian Stands by Proof of Wartime Sex Slavery By NORIMITSU ONISHI Published: March 31, 2007 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- たしかに、連日のオーニシの張り切り具合やNYTの力の入れ方は異常で、何か裏事情が あるのでは、とさえ憶測される。
ピルスバリー氏によると、中国軍は2010〜20年をメドに、中国上空の宇宙空間にあ る人工衛星を破壊する能力の確立を目指しており、標的には「米国の衛星だけでなく、日 本とインドが含まれている」という。破壊の手段としては、ミサイルによる破壊に加え、 電波妨害やレーザー照射による衛星の無力化、地上の基地局に対するサイバー攻撃などが 検討されているという。[ 2007年4月2日3時3分 ] -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.uscc.gov/hearings/2007hearings/written_testimonies/07_03_29_30wrts/07_03_29_30_pillsbury_statement.php Statement of Dr. Michael Pillsbury To the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission
4. Multilateral Diplomacy with Japan, India, European Union and Russia on ASAT(ry
Of the thirty Chinese proposals, one set would be particularly challenging to US military vulnerabilities in a crisis. In each of their books, Chinese Colonels Li, Jia and Yuan all advocated covert deployment of a sophisticated antisatellite weapon system to be used against United States in a surprise manner without warning.
VOAのインタビューでも、中国の一部の軍人たちの「奇襲攻撃」をいう危なさについて語 っている・・ Pillsbury described the colonels' arguments in an interview with VOA:
"What they are doing in their books is saying that if China faces a hostile United States in the future, we Chinese may need to have some way to deter the United States from either attacking us, or coming to the defense of Taiwan," he said. "If we Chinese ever face that situation, one good way to deter the United States - they use the term "bring America to its knees" - is to have a "shock attack," or a "shock and awe" attack, to borrow a term we [Americans] used during the 2003 invasion of Iraq, on U.S.-based satellites." ttp://www.huliq.com/17157/defense-expert-issues-warning-on-chinas-anti-satellite-efforts 「一部の中国の軍人たちは、中国が将来アメリカの朝鮮に直面する可能性をいい、アメリカの 攻撃を遅らせるために、あるいは台湾の支援をしにくくさせるために、(衛星システムへの) ショック&オーの奇襲攻撃が有効だとかいっている」
US and South Korean officials struggling to clinch a major free trade agreement kept talking past their deadline early Monday -- the second time in two days they have extended the tough negotiations.
America must keep in mind that Russia, containing 11 time zones, abuts principal areas in rapid transformation: Europe; the Middle East; and China, India and Japan, under whose aegis the center of gravity of world affairs is moving from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Then there are the republics of Central Asia, repository of some of the world's largest energy resources. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- これは最近、あちこちでディベートのネタになっている、キッシンジャーの「ロシアはアメリ カに取って戦略的に重要なので敵に回すな」という論文。地政学的に中央アジアやインド、日本、 中国、欧州に影響を与えるロシアは非常に重要であり、エネルギー大国でもあるので、アメリカ はそのロシアを敵に回すのではなく、協調関係を築いてゆかなくてはいけない、と言う。
The goal of sound U.S. policy should be to maximize incentives for Russia's evolution to become more compatible with democratic norms. The dominant factors shaping this evolution will be domestic, not external. Overreaching efforts to determine political evolution in Russia will be more likely to strengthen authoritarian tendencies than the reverse. ロシアが(民主化など)変わるとすればそれはロシア内部からのみであって、アメリカなどが外 からの圧力や影響力を及ぼすのは有害無益である、という。キッシンジャーの主張に一理ある ことは理解できるのだけれど、さすがにそれを全面的支持することは通常のアメリカ人には難 しいような気もする(?)
"Things are better. There are encouraging signs," McCain said during a terse exchange with reporters afterward inside a U.S. military compound in the heavily guarded Green Zone. "The American people are not getting the full picture of what's happening here." "Some of the steps the Maliki government is taking are encouraging, but we have a long way to go," he said.
The plight of the workers has generated outrage among China's netizens. One Internet user expressed shock and shame, writing: "Hope there won't be migrant workers' blood and tears behind the Beijing's prosperity and booming scene." この事件はネットで話題になり、事故をショックあるいは恥じであるとする意見がある。 「浮動労働者の血と汗で北京の繁栄のシーンが築かれてはならない」と言った意見が表明さ れている。
・・ prosecutors say he copied submarine data from L-3's Anaheim, California-based Power Paragon unit onto compact discs and enlisted the other family members to encrypt the information and help smuggle it to China. Brenner says the disks also contained information on the U.S. Navy's next-generation DD(X) warship. 起訴状に拠れば彼は潜水艦のデータをCDに収めて家族に持たせて中国に渡したという。CD には次世代DDXのデータも含まれていたと言う。
Under questioning, Mak admitted sending information to Chinese operatives since 1983 on technology that included radar systems of Aegis cruisers, which are used to defend against multiple missile attacks, Brenner says. 審問で、被告は1983年以降に中国のエージェントにイージスのレーダーなどを含む技術データ を渡したと話した。
But the deal is narrower in scope than the countries planned when they began formal talks. And the hard work is yet to come. Leaders of the two countries will face an uphill battle winning approval the trade deal needs from lawmakers in both to take effect. In recent weeks, key members of both the U.S. Congress and South Korea's National Assembly voiced skepticism about the uncompleted deal. しかしFTAの合意は当初の目標夜は狭められた範囲となり、今後に残されたハードワーク も多い。両国の指導者は条約の合意を取り付けるために議会との困難な交渉がある。最近両 国の国家議員の中にFTAに批判的な声がある。合意文書の正式なものは法律家の検討と翻 訳のチェックの後1,2週間で公表される。
South Korea is also trying to include in the deal goods made at an industrial complex in the North Korean city of Gaeseong. The U.S. has said it doesn't want those products covered by a trade agreement. 韓国は北朝鮮の開城工業団地で生産された製品がFTAに含まれることを求めた。アメリカは それを通商条約に含むことを望まないといっている。
One dispute has centered on the U.S. bid to put in place an investor-state dispute system, which would allow investors to file a suit with an international arbitration body if the policies of other countries inflict damage upon investments. 別の争点は、アメリカが海外からの投資について紛争が起こった場合に、訴訟を国際的司法機関 に託することの出来るようにしたいと言うものであった。 ttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=ahB60EbLDncc&refer=asia
This latest Saudi drive and the reciprocal Israeli moves only represent the beginning of a long process of negotiations. And with both the Israelis and Saudis facing domestic opposition to their mutual desire to move ahead with a negotiated settlement, a lot could go wrong. イスラエルとサウジアラビアの接近は最近のことであるが、交渉の長きプロセスの始まり なるかもしれない。両国共に国内にはそうした動きに反対する勢力があり、交渉による妥 協には多くの困難を有する。
解決策が10日以内に現れるとは予想しがたく、数週間が必要なのではと見られる。最終的に はカメネイ師(革命防衛隊は彼に報告する)が結論を与えることは可能である。彼が次に発 言する場合に、その意思決定が行なわれたことの表れが見られるだろう。 (An indication that a decision has been made will come when he breaks his silence.) In Iran, No Consensus On Seized Sailors Oxford Analytica 04.02.07, 6:00 AM ET
"This issue can be resolved and there is no need for any trial," Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, told Britain's Channel 4 News television. イラン最高安全保証評議会のAli Larijani委員長は英国のチャネル4TVのインタビューで 「この事件は外交的に解決できるものであり、裁判の必要性は無い」と答えた。
歴史家のRobert Dallekが、最近公開されたニクソン大統領時代の2万ページのキッシンジャー 国務長官の電話記録や数百巻のニクソン大統領の録音テープをもとに書いた新著、"Nixon and Kissinger: Partners in Power" によれば、キッシンジャーはニクソン大統領に状況を克明 に報告せず、独自に処理を進めるケースがあった。
更に、この新著ではニクソン大統領がキッシンジャー長官に中東政策を任せるべきではないと 考えていたという。ニクソン大統領の発言を引いて、著者が説明している部分には: "Anybody who is Jewish cannot handle" Middle Eastern policy. Henry might be "as fair as he can possibly be, he can't help but be affected by it. Put yourself in his position. Good God ... his people were crucified over there. Jesus Christ! Five million of them popped into big ovens! How the hell's he feel about all this?" というニクソン大統領の言葉が記されている。
Haig asked, "Have you talked to the president?" Kissinger replied, "No, I haven't. He would just start charging around ... I don't think we should bother the president."
FDAは波紋の広がっているペットフードの毒物汚染事件で、その原因である中国製の 小麦粉グルテンの製造会社、Xuzhou Anying Biologic Technology Development Co. in Wangdien, China の製品を輸入禁止措置とした。
FDAは毒物汚染のあった、中国製の小麦粉グルテンの使用先を追跡しているが、完全に 把握できていない。(小麦粉グルテンは、人間の食品にも多く利用されるので)しかし 今までの調査では人間用の食品に使われたという証拠は無いとしている。現在までの調査 では、汚染されたグルテンはペットフード業界で使われた模様。(後略) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.slate.com/id/2163235/ Un-American Pet Food By Michelle Tsai Posted Monday, April 2, 2007, at 7:33 PM ET
The latest product HP Protein Powder which is researched and developed by Xuzhou Anying Biologic Technology Development Co., Ltd. contains protein 160%-300%, which solves the problem for shortage of protein resource. ...
[関連カテゴリー: 食物添加物][関連キーワード: biological protein, proein] http://jp.tradekey.com/selloffer_view/id/498135.htm ロケーション: China 最低注文量: 20 連絡先担当者: Mr. Tao Yan (Manager) 会社: Shandong Jinan together business & trading co.,LTD 住所: Jingyi Road, Jina, Shandong, China 郵便番号: 250001 電話: 86-531-82638131 ファックス: 86-531-82638132
ttp://www.alibaba.com/company/10926883.html Xuzhou Anying Biologic Technology Development Co. Ltd We have also held the certificates of iso9001: 2000 international quality management system and haccp-EC-01 international system. Our company specializes in the export of wheat gluten, wheat flour, cornstarch, sweet potato starch, and other agricultural and sideline products. We wish to cooperate with domestic and abroad merchants hand in hand.
The Detroit auto makers have been hurt by an overall switch in buyer preference away from trucks and SUVs toward more fuel-efficient vehicles that are mostly Asian-made, as well as by the housing-market slump. ビッグ3は消費者の(ガソリン価格の高いことを気にした)トラックやSUVから、より 燃費の良い車への嗜好の変化によって被害を受けており、燃費の良い車は大方がアジア のメーカー生産するものである。(後略)
ヘリテージ財団:アメリカと韓国のFTA、決定的瞬間 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bruce KlingnerとAnthony B. Kimの書いているKORUS・FTAの評価で、韓国系著者 が参加していることもあって、自由貿易推進(という米国保守派の基本理念)の意味から 重要性が大きいと評価しているものの、今後の両国議会での条約批准について、厳しい見 方をしている。経済的メリットよりは米韓関係を維持発展させる意思を示す戦略的意味が 大きいと言ったニュアンスになっていて、この評論そのものが経済的分析ではなく、政治 的な分析になっている。
Tough Challenges Ahead
Although the FTA has been completed and enjoys strong support from business in both countries, it faces formidable obstacles to ratification in the U.S. Congress and the South Korean National Assembly. President Roh Moo-hyun will have to work hard to gain a sufficient majority within the National Assembly to secure ratification. He will face greater opposition from within his ruling Uri Party than from the traditionally pro-business Grand National Party(ry
Conclusion
Presidents Bush and Roh must exert strong leadership to highlight the broad advantages of the deal to convince legislators to look beyond their parochial interests. President Roh has taken a principled stand against those who advocate maintaining outdated protectionist barriers--including members of his own party. President Bush should press the U.S. Congress to embrace the strategic advantages of strengthening the U.S.-South Korea bilateral relationship through approving the KORUS FTA.
In a meeting in Beijing, Cao Gangchuan, Chinese defence minister, told Haj Ahmed El Gaili, Sudan's joint chief of staff, that military relations had been “developing smoothly”. The Chinese side set great store by the traditional Sino-Sudanese friendship, state media quoted Mr Cao as saying. “[We] are willing to further develop military co-operation between our two countries in all areas.”
北京で行なわれた会議で、中国の国防相、Cao Gangchuan(曹剛川)はスーダンの参謀総長 Haj Ahmed El Gailiに対して、両国の軍の関係は「スムースに発展している」と述べた。 国営メデイアはスーダンと中国の友好関係について、国防相の言葉を伝えていて「我々は 両国の軍事協力で、あらゆる分野に更なる発展を意図している」
Why do I object? Is such trade liberalisation not precisely what most economists interested in trade believe in? The answer to this question is “yes and no”: yes, because liberal trade is desirable, but no, because this form of liberalisation is not necessarily a move towards liberal trade. As Jagdish Bhagwati of Columbia University has argued, “free trade agreements” should, instead, be called “preferential trade agreements”. I would prefer “discriminatory trade agreements”.
しかし、北朝鮮に独自の太いパイプを持つリチャードソン知事の訪問は、6カ国協議の共 同文書に基づく北朝鮮核施設の稼働停止・封印など初期段階措置履行期限を目前に控えた タイミングで行われるため、同知事は履行実現に向けて北朝鮮への働き掛けを強めるとみ られる。 -------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.onelocalnews.com/howelltimesandtranscript/ViewArticle.aspx?id=11492&source=2 The four-day trip will be led by Bill Richardson, the New Mexico governor and Democratic presidential candidate, and Anthony Principi, the former veteran affairs secretary for President Bush . The bipartisan delegation has been invited by the North Korean government to help recover remains of missing servicemen, Perino said.
ttp://pajamasmedia.com/2007/04/time_to_get_out.php Time to Get Out The Dutch are leading the way in the new exodus from Europe. Last year’s number confirm that the Dutch are experiencing the largest net outflow of people since the post-war emigration boom of the 1950s. By Pieter Dorsman
At the same time the general social and cultural liberalization contributed to an unprecedented level of individualism, allowing citizens to do pretty much as they liked knowing that the government would always be there as some sort of guarantor of last resort. In other words, it doesn’t matter what you do, someone will always be there to fix your problem. オランダの一般的社会的、文化的・リベラリゼーションは前代未聞の個人主義を生むことに 貢献した。それは政府が何時も、最後の処理をしてくれるものと決めているような市民を生 んだ。別の言葉で言えば、それは個人が何をするかは問題ではなくて、誰かが何時も貴方の 問題を解決してくれる、ということだ。
In practice that is exactly why the nation experiences so much vandalism and intentional damage to public property by hooligans and youngsters: they have long stopped to identify themselves with a community, public property is impersonal, and someone else will surely fix it. So who cares? Another great example is garbage disposal which is now so heavily regulated and expensive that many just dump their weekly dose of household leftovers along the highway, much cheaper. The more government interferes, the fewer citizens take responsibility, and the more decay you tend to see around you. 現実的に言えば、それがこの国で、若者やフーリガンにより、かくも多くの暴動事件や公共施設 への破壊行為の起こる理由である。彼等はコミニティの、公共物は個人的なものではないので、 誰かが修復してくれるものとしている。別の例で言えば、ゴミの廃棄は現在たいへん厳しく規制 されていて高価でもあるので、多くの人が一週間分のゴミをハイウェイのわきに捨ててゆく。そ れは、なにしろ、安上がりだから。政府が規制や干渉を強めるに従って、より少数の人々が責任 を果たすようになる。そして貴方の周りにより多くの崩壊を見ることが出来るようになる、
The bureaucracy at the same time has been without any of the tools required to maintain order in an increasingly rudderless society. The Dutch justice system is a case in point as one of the most lax on the entire planet, believing as it does - another 1960s legacy - that even the worst offenders should have a chance to re-enter society. In recent years many severely deranged offenders were able to escape from half-way houses where they were being prepared for a return to society, a problem that remains unaddressed as of today. 官僚主義が、指導性を欠いた社会の秩序維持を支配する。オランダの司法制度は全世界の中でも 最も手ぬるいものである。それは1960年代からの遺産であって、最悪の犯罪者でも、再び社会に 戻る希望を持つことが出来る。最近の例では相当に酷い犯罪者が、社会復帰の準備として居住し ていた半監視の施設から逃走したが,今に至るも問題とされてはいない。
So in all you have decay, crime, incompetent bureaucracies, unfettered and mismanaged immigration. But didn’t the Dutch opt for change in recent years? It is revealing that foreign media still mistakenly think that the recent political turmoil in the Netherlands has turned the nation to the right and that the much vaunted Dutch pragmatism is once more delivering some clever solutions. Not really,
ttp://penceblog.rcsinteractive.com/ Tuesday, April 03, 2007 PENCE BLOG FROM IRAQ: CONGRESSMAN IN BAGHDAD, REVIEWS SURGE, VISITS MARKET WITH JOHN MCCAIN "There is tough, difficult work ahead but we are making progress on the ground in Baghdad" バクダッドのフリーマーケットを視察して、昔に比べて治安回復の進んでいることに印象 付けられた云々と書いているもの。
ローレス氏は当初、国防総省の組織改編により新設された、アジア太平洋安全保障局を担 当する国防次官補に指名されると見られていた。しかし、昨年11月の米中間選挙直後、 最大の後ろ盾だったラムズフェルド氏が更迭されたことや、懸案だったアジア地域での米 軍再編が一段落したことなどを踏まえ、辞任を決めたと見られる。 [ 2007年4月4日12時48分 ] -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/03/AR2007040301441.html Pentagon's top official on Asian affairs resigns Reuters Tuesday, April 3, 2007; 5:50 PM ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/Engnews/20070404/610000000020070404002035E2.html The source said James Shinn, former national intelligence officer for Asia at the Central Intelligence Agency, is likely to succeed Lawless. He moved to the Department of Defense earlier this year.
James Shinn 氏の経歴。かなり多才な人のような。国務省に勤務した後、ビジネス界 (シリコンバレー)で活躍し、中年になってからプリンストンでPhDをとり、教育に携 わっている。2003年からNICに。
James Shinn is the National Intelligence Officer for East Asia at the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Visiting Professor in the Science, Technology and International Affairs (STIA) Program of Georgetown’s School of Foreign Service.
After serving in the East Asia Bureau of the State Department in the 1970s, he spent 15 years in high-tech firms in Silicon Valley, first at Advanced Micro Devices, an integrated circuit firm, and then at Dialogic, a digital signal processing (DSP) software firm, which he co-founded. Dialogic did an IPO in 1992 and is now a division of Intel Corporation. Jim then helped start HLI, a successful UNIX transactions security firm in Texas acquired by Network Associates and CAMBIX.COM, a Manhattan-based financial software firm that went belly-up.
After leaving high-tech land he was Senior Fellow for Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York for 4 years, where he authored several undistinguished books and task force reports. He then returned to academia, completed a middle-aged PhD at Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School, and taught courses on technology and foreign policy at Princeton’s Engineering Department and the Woodrow Wilson School.
He moved to Washington D.C. and joined the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in 2003. Jim has a BA from Princeton, an MBA from Harvard, and Ph.D. from Princeton. Amazingly enough, the omnipotent Ed Morse was his undergraduate thesis advisor at Princeton.
Strategically, the deal strengthens the U.S. relationship with one of its longest -standing Asian allies, at a time when Chinese economic and military influence is mounting. Inking the pact could also encourage other big Asian trading partners, such as Japan, to get serious about opening up its markets to competition. That's a virtuous circle worth much more than this one deal.
「メインストリーム・メディア(ABC)が、イラクのバクダッドで治安回復ガ著しく ブッシュ大統領の兵力増強が効果を上げている」と(信じられないような)ポジティブ な放送を行なった(!) ABC'S TERRY MCCARTHY REPORTS THAT THE TROOP SURGE is "having a large and positive effect."
BREAKING NEWS: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says he will free the 15 British sailors and marines detained in the Gulf last month. Full article coming soon. ttp://online.wsj.com/home/us
In characteristic fashion, Iran’s leadership is consumed by short-term tactics at the expense of long-term strategy. In the short term, Iran thumbed its nose at the West and put a smile on the face of millions around the world?especially in the Islamic world?who abhor Western policies in the Middle East.
But once the dust has settled in Tehran, more sober Iranian officials will come to realize that Iran has only increased the time and distance it will need to travel until it can reintegrate itself into the international community and assume its rightful position as a respected member of the league of nations.
Karim Sadjadpour recently joined the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace after serving four years as the chief Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group based in Tehran and Washington, D.C.
President and Mrs. Bush to Welcome Prime Minister of Japan and Mrs. Abe to the White House
President and Mrs. Bush will welcome the Prime Minister of Japan and Mrs. Abe to the White House on April 26, 2007 for dinner. On April 27, the two leaders will meet at Camp David and will review the continuing strong cooperation in bilateral alliance matters and in economic relations. They will discuss their close cooperation in global affairs, including the war on terror, progress in Iraq, next steps in the Six Party talks, and energy and climate policies. The President looks forward to hosting the Japanese leader for his first visit to the United States as Prime Minister. Released on April 4, 2007
ttp://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=286808 Second Quarter Forecast 2007: The Maneuvering Before the Storm - Part II April 04, 2007 19 27 GMT ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2007年4-6月に世界各国で起こりえる(と予想する)地政学的変化、紛争、政争、経済、 軍事などについて書いていて、読み物としてはなかなか面白いもの。FTやエコノミス トなども含めて、英米のメディアは将来予想を発表するのが好きで、それはあたる事も 外れる事もあるわけだけれど、外れた場合もその原因を解析する記事を書くことが出来 る。STRATFORは平均値のような予想よりは、やや個性的なものを打ち出すとこ ろがあるように思える。
Europe: France Fades as Germany Grows For Europe, the second quarter will be action-packed; everything of consequence that will happen in 2007 will happen in these three months. ・・・ But this hardly means France will remain the same. In fact, France will change more now than at any time since World War II -- with the election serving as the inflection point -- because of the four candidates' one similarity: None are Gaullists. ・・・ If she succeeds, she will have seized Europe's pre-eminent leadership position and established Germany as the Continent's arbiter. But even if she fails, Germany remains Europe's most significant power -- and the only one geographically positioned to reach all parts of the Continent with its influence. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ この春以降に、英仏で首脳交代があり、特にフランスではゴーリストの首脳がいなくなるので アメリカに対抗する大国主義のフランス、というのが後退する。ドイツの経済復興と共に、欧 州におけるドイツの指導的地位が向上し、欧州のリーダーシップNo1の地位を獲得するとい う予想になっている。
三人は、Said Hyder Akbar(23歳、英国籍)、 Nikolaos Angelopoulos(19歳、ギリシャ 国籍)および Farhad Anklesaria(19歳、パキスタン系アメリカ人)(後略) -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 流石にアメリカでは、国旗を焼くと逮捕・拘留されるらすい。 The three men, all of foreign origin, were charged with offenses ranging from reckless endangerment to arson and were held in jail Tuesday night after a judge refused to release them without bail. とあるので、放火罪の可能性すらあるような。
AIR STRIKE DESTROYS EXPLOSIVES FACTORIES IN ARAB JABOUR AIR STRIKE DESTROYS EXPLOSIVES FACTORIES IN ARAB JABOUR イラク多国籍軍、情報センターの広報リリース、4月2日
多国籍軍は月曜日の午後に、Arab Jabour地区で、多量の爆発物を貯蔵した、自動車爆弾製造 工場と見られる二つのビルディングを発見し、空爆によってこれを破壊した。空爆の前に、 慎重な分析が行なわれ、破壊の副作用が検討されて実行されたので、これによる被害は無し。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ オマル氏の記事 ttp://pajamasmedia.com/2007/04/baghdad_report_heavy_armors_in.php Perhaps among the most significant successes recently made by the troops was the discovery and destruction of bomb-making facilities in Arab Jubour with an air strike. Throughout the city it is widely believed that this area of farms and palm grooves is where many car-bombs are made and sent to Baghdad. Arab Jubour地区は農業や椰子園の地域で、多くの人がバクダッドに送られてくる自動車爆弾が バクダッド郊外のこの地域で作られていると推定していた場所である。
ヘリテージ財団:北朝鮮の核の脅威に対抗するために ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bruce Klingnerの書いている、現行の6者会合合意に基づく北朝鮮の核廃棄の問題点と対策 についての評論。長々しいもので、ブリリアントではない。
Even if the U.S. attains the negotiating goals sug-gested in this paper, the Six-Party Talks will fail if North Korea has not made the strategic decision to give up its nuclear weapons completely. A collapse of the talks or even a prolonged stalemate has dire ramifications for regional stability and international nonproliferation efforts.
Because few experts believe that North Korea will fully comply with its commit-ments, the U.S. should begin contingency planning for alternative outcomes.