The first one is the rise in US interest rates. For the first time in awhile, real US 10-year interest rates (which is nominal interest rates adjusted for inflation) have turned positive. ttp://static2.businessinsider.com/image/51b6fb9f69bedd105c00000c-600-450/fredgraph-59.png 第一の理由:米国の(実質)金利が上昇、10年国債の実質金利がポジティブに変わった (グラフ参照) More importantly than the fact that they've turned positive is the fact that there's just been a big spike in US real rates. さらに、米国金利に(ボラタリティ上昇から)大きなスパイクの起こる状況になった
The next factor is the slowdown in China. Many emerging markets are in some way levered to exports to China. The China slowdown is one of the big stories of the year (confirmed with weak data over the weekend) and so this continues apace. 第二の理由:中国の成長鈍化、多くの途上国が中国を輸出先にしている。先週末の 一連の中国の経済データは成長鈍化を確認させるもの
And then finally, there's the commodity slowdown, which is related to the China slowdown.A lot of emerging markets are commodity players. As you can see, it's been a rough several months for commodity prices (as the generic chart of the CRB commodity index shows below) and this takes a toll on these economies. 第三の理由:コモディティの価格低下。此れは中国の成長鈍化にも関連するが、 多くの途上国はコモディティを主力輸出商品にしている(グラフ、CRB指数)
"This episode is now over. We won't show any more tolerance," the premier told cheering lawmakers of his Justice and Development Party (AKP) in a speech broadcast live on television. "Can you believe that? They attack Taksim, gas us in the morning just after proposing talks with us?" said 23-year-old Yilmaz. "We won't abandon Gezi," he vowed. "I am not afraid of their water cannon, it'll be my first shower in three days."
トルコの反政府抗議行動について英国のリベラル紙インデペンデントに掲載された評論 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/this-genie-should-not-be-tricked-back-into-its-bottle-8654603.html KUTLUG ATAMAN Tuesday 11 June 2013 This genie should not be tricked back into its bottle The state is realising only now that these youths are not calling for chaos, but for inclusion (トルコの反政府抗議行動という)この魔神は、もとの壺に戻すべきではない 政府はやっと気がついたようだが、これらの若者たちの求めているのはカオスではなく 政治参加だ KUTLUG ATAMAN (筆者はイスタンブール在住の映画監督)
We need to note that the Turkish bourgeoisie is nothing like the Western bourgeoisie. It is more like the Russian oligarchs. This is where the West fails to understand the systematic provocations and manipulations. The old system opposes a civilian constitution (blocked at every level), as well as peace with the Kurds (rejecting Kurdish identity with such slogans as “Turkey belongs to Turks”). 言っておきたいことがあってトルコのブルジョアというのは西欧のブルジョアとは異な るのだ。彼らはむしろ、ロシアのオリガキーに近い。西欧はこの点を理解できていない。 そのためにシステミックな挑発や(世論)操作を理解していない。古きシステムは憲法 に反対しクルド族との和平に反対している。
The West has to analyse better and be able to separate democratic dissent from these manipulations. In turn, as democrats in Turkey, we have to align ourselves with the government, BUT never fail to criticise when it shows authoritarian reflexes. The genie that just came out of the bottle should not be tricked back in. It is a good genie. 西欧は(トルの政治の分析において)より良い理解が必要であって、トルコ国内の意見 対立と(政府の)世論操作を区別して分析すべきだ。トルコの民主化を求める者として 我々は政府と整合的であるべきだが政府の権威主義的側面に対する批判を忘れてはなら ない。この(反政府抗議行動という)魔神を元の壺に戻そうという策略は誤っていて、 この魔神は良い魔神なのだ。
What has arrived is a new language. A civilian language that is anti- authoritarian and inclusive. The government may only be realising about this ? we shall see. I remain very hopeful.
This morning, the global bond market sell-off gathered steam as 10-year U.S. Treasury yields once again rose to their highest levels in over a year. Nowhere was immune to the selling ? yields rose across both the core and peripheral eurozone, as they did in other developed economies and emerging markets around the world. Stocks and commodities worldwide fell as well. 今朝、グローバルな債券市場の暴落があって、それは米国の10年国債のイールドが 再び一年来の高さに達したことと同期している。この暴風雨に抗しきれる国はなくて EUのコアも周辺国も先進国も途上国も、グローバルな株式もコモディティも嵐に巻き 込まれている
The sell-off in emerging markets continues to smash EM sovereign debt. Turkish 10-year government bond yields rose 35 basis points to 7.72%, while Russian 10-year yields rose 20 basis points to 7.67%. Meanwhile, Mexican 10-year yields rose 13 basis points to 3.45% and Brazilian 10-year yields advanced 11 basis points to 3.91%. And the Indian rupee hit a record low against the U.S. dollar. 途上国の国債がこの嵐で、トルコ10年国債は35bp増加の7.22%、ロシア10年国債は +20bpの7.67%、メキシコ10年国債が+13bpの3.45%、ブラジル10年国債は+11bp の3.91%、インドルピーは対ドルで史上最低を記録
Around 11 AM, U.S. stocks attempted a comeback. 米国株式は回復しようとしているけど However, it didn't last very long, and by early afternoon, the yen was surging against the dollar again. Stocks rolled over, erasing earlier gains. それは長続きせず、円が対ドルで再び値を上げている。株式は反転下落 (後略)
Emerging market currencies, stocks and bonds suffered a fierce sell-off on Tuesday on rising investor concerns over the prospect of the US Federal Reserve reining in its programme of bond-buying to drive down long-term interest rates. 途上国の通貨、株式、債券が火曜日に暴落。FRBが米国長期国債の値を下げる為に 行なってきた債券購入を控えるように動くのではとの懸念が基である。
Emerging economies have been among the prime beneficiaries of ultra-loose global monetary policy as central banks led by the Fed have flooded financial markets with more than $12tn of extra liquidity since the financial crisis. 途上国の市場はグローバルなウルトラ金融緩和で最も潤ってきた。金融危機以降 にFRBは12兆ドル以上の追加流動性を投入して市場を(金利上昇を)押さえてきた
But signs of an economic slowdown spreading from China and indications that the Fed could reduce the pace of its $85bn-a-month bond purchases have triggered a sharp correction in emerging markets. しかし中国の経済成長鈍化の兆しから、またFRBの毎月850億ドルの債券購入が控 えられるのではとの恐怖から、途上国市場の急峻な調整が起こった(後略)
>>35 WSJのレビュー&アウトルック(準社説) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323844804578528832874199480.html REVIEW & OUTLOOKJune 10, 2013, 1:00 p.m. ET China's Cyber Stonewall Beijing won't stop until it pays a price for its Internet thievery. 中国のサイバー攻撃への対話拒否 中国政府は、そのインターネット窃盗行為に対価を支払わされるまで、それを止め ないだろう
This may mean sanctions against Chinese firms and individuals that benefit from cyber theft, as well as against military officials who practice it. But even those steps probably won't matter unless the Chinese begin to see that their own military and business assets are vulnerable to cyber attack. Arms control won't stop China's cyber theft. The fear of counter cyber warfare might. (米中)軍縮は中国のサイバー攻撃を止めることはないだろう。カウンター・サイバー 戦争の恐怖は、それを止めるかもすれない
(Reuters) - The White House said on Tuesday it was concerned by attempts in Turkey to punish individuals for expressing free speech and called for dialogue to resolve differences between the government and protesters. "We continue to follow events in Turkey with concern, and our interest remains supporting freedom of expression and assembly, including the right to peaceful protest," White House spokeswoman Caitlin Hayden said in a statement. 広報官は「我々はトルコの事態の推移を見守っているが、我々の集会や発言の自由への 支持は変わらない。それには平和的な抗議の権利をも含む」と文書で発表
"We believe that Turkey's long-term stability, security, and prosperity is best guaranteed by upholding the fundamental freedoms of expression, assembly, association, and a free and independent media. Turkey is a close friend and ally of the United States, and we expect the Turkish authorities to uphold these fundamental freedoms," she said. 「我々はトルコの長期的な安定や安全保障、繁栄が基本的な集会や発言の自由、また 自由なメディアによってもたらされると信じる。トルコは米国の同盟国で親密な関係 にあり、我々はトルコ当局が、これらの基本的な自由を保証することを期待する」
The economy needs Abenomics to succeed if it is to avoid a possible sovereign debt crisis down the road. Success, however, can be assured only by a display of strong leadership. Mr Abe should prove his mettle before the election ? and not wait until he has a comfortable majority. After all, he has been bold in firing off the first two arrows of his economic reform so successfully. He should step up to the mark and fire the third with the same conviction.
イスタンブールの Taksim 広場の抗議行動を警官隊が実力行使して排除した事について FTの社説。エルドアン首相にとても批判的。 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4f8023f2-d358-11e2-95d4-00144feab7de.html#axzz2Vu1sdv4d June 12, 2013 5:52 pm Erdogan’s obstinacy puts legacy at risk PM’s actions undermine Turkey’s image as regional power エルドアン首相の強情さは、彼のこれまでの実績を危うくするもの 首相の行動は中東地域の大国としてのトルコのイメージを台無しにする
Overall, what is at risk is the AKP coalition, seen hitherto as a sort of Muslim equivalent of Christian Democracy. That thesis now looks shakier because of the wilfulness of one man, whose partners in the project, in particular President Abdullah Gul, need to bring this forcefully to his attention. トルコ政府与党のAKPは西欧におけるクリスチャン民主党のムスリム版というふうに 理解されてきたけれど、首相の強引な行動によって、その見方(政教分離を保証する 民主政党)が揺らいでいる。AKPを構築してきた首相のパートナーである(大物の) Abdullah Gul大統領はこの事実を認識すべきである
Turkey’s allies have leverage. Stalled EU accession talks are due to restart in two weeks. But any pressure needs to be subtle, with a man just spoiling for a fight. トルコの同盟国はトルコへの影響力を有している。トルコの失速したEU加盟交渉は 2週間後に再開が予定されているが首相への圧力が考えられるものの微妙な要素もある
Mr Erdogan has the numbers, on the streets and in any foreseeable poll. There is no doubt he can bulldoze through. But he will be in charge of a country whose social fabric is fraying along with his reputation ? more a Vladimir Putin than an Ataturk. This Erdogan’s Turkey will no longer be the admired country of his extraordinary decade as prime minister. エルドアン首相は多くの支持者を持ち、次回の選挙でも、それをもって反対派をブル ドーザーのように押し切ることが出来るだろう。しかし彼の首相を務める国は、社会 の構成にほころびが見られ、それは首相の評判に同期していて、彼はアタチェルクと 言うよりはプーチンに近いように見える。エルドアン首相の過去10年における大きな 実績にも関わらず、エルドアンの率いるトルコは、最早、称賛に値しない。
10-year U.S. Treasury yields climbed 5 basis points to 2.24% today. The sell-off in the bond market is being driven by rising real interest rates, which in turn are being driven by the threat that the Federal Reserve could taper back monetary stimulus this year. 米国10年国債のイールドは+5bpで2.24%に上昇。債券市場の売りは実質金利の上昇を反映 したもの。それはFRBのマネタリ政策が今年、緩和政策のtapering(漸減化)をもたらす のではとの不安に依る
Fears of Fed tapering are now beginning to seep into the stock market. After closing down yesterday, U.S. stock markets continued to trend lower all day today, closing near their lows. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen continues to appreciate against the U.S. dollar. Earlier today, the dollar-yen exchange rate hit a low of \95.13 before bouncing back a bit. このFRBの緩和taperingへの恐怖が株式市場を襲っている。その一方で、この恐怖が日本円 を高くしていて今日は一時、 \95.13をつけている
The latest report on homeowner equity from CoreLogic estimates that 9.7 million homes (or 19.8% of all residential properties with a mortgage) were still underwater in the first quarter of 2013, down from 10.5 million (or 21.7%) in the fourth quarter of 2012. CoreLogicの発表した報告書によれば米国の970万家庭(持ち家の家庭の19.8%)は依然とし て水面下(ローンが資産価値を上回る)状態で、これは2012年4Qの1050万家庭、21.7%から 減少した値。
経済右派であるWSJはバーナンキの積極緩和やアベノミクスには批判的なところが あるのだけれど、それでも最近は少々様子が変わってきたようなふいんきも(w ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323734304578540873822669816.html BUSINESS ASIAJune 12, 2013, 12:42 p.m. ET In (Partial) Defense of Abenomics For all its shortcomings, Shinzo Abe's plan contains kernels of good policy. By JOSEPH STERNBERG(WSJアジア版のビジネス・セクション編集者)
But do give Mr. Abe credit for tackling, albeit in indirect ways, two of the crucial questions facing Japan?how to stimulate new and productive corporate investment, and how to better put Japanese companies' overseas earnings to work for prosperity back home. In this respect, at least, he has a big leg up on many of his predecessors?even if this column remains skeptical as to how it will all play out.
PIMXCOのMohamed A. El-Erian、最近の市場の乱高下には明るい面があるのだと 解説して ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/06/12/market-turbulence-el-erian/?iid=Lead The upside of current market turbulence June 12, 2013: 5:00 AM ET As some prices overshoot in the downward direction, as they inevitably do, investors will come across opportunities that they previously could only hope for. By Mohamed A. El-Erian
(前部略) The resulting turmoil, including price gapping up and (more often) down, triggered reactions that gradually transmitted the dislocations throughout global markets. The cascade has been at first, gradual and sequential, but there is a risk that it could become disorderly and indiscriminate.
It is no longer just about emerging markets and high-yield, nor is it contained to the currency markets where the Yen has been particularly unstable. The phenomenon is now evident in investment grade bonds and inflation linkers. It is just a matter of time before it hits hard European government bonds, particularly the weaker economies. Absent a circuit breaker, it could well spread to U.S. and European equities. ・・・ Yet there is a notable upside that accompanies the general sense of anxiety and havoc. As some prices overshoot in the downward direction, as they inevitably do, investors will come across opportunities that they previously could only hope for. The key is to identify those anchored by solid fundamentals, even if the anchor is obfuscated for now by nasty market technical. And it is essential to size and time these trades appropriately as further volatility could well materialize.(ry
PRINCETON, NJ -- More Americans disapprove (53%) than approve (37%) of the federal government agency program that as part of its efforts to investigate terrorism obtained records from U.S. telephone and Internet companies to "compile telephone call logs and Internet communications."
There are significant partisan differences in views of the government's program to obtain call logs and Internet communication. Democrats are more likely to approve, by 49% to 40%. Independents (34% vs. 56%) and Republicans (32% to 63%) are much more likely to disapprove than approve.
(Reuters) - Roughly one in three Americans say the former security contractor who leaked details of top-secret U.S. surveillance activity is a patriot and should not be prosecuted, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday. Some 23 percent of those surveyed said former National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden is a traitor while 31 percent said he is a patriot. Another 46 percent said they did not know.
Companies cannot patent specific pieces of DNA, the US Supreme Court declared on Thursday, in a mixed decision that also affirmed the rights of the $83bn biotechnology industry in synthetic genetic products. The justices ruled that synthetic DNA ? strands of genetic material that have been modified in a lab ? could be patented because this process involved some human input. アメリカ最高裁はDNAの特定部分を特許化することは出来ないと判定し、この審判は 830億ドル規模のバイオ産業の合成DNAには例外を認めていて大きな影響。最高裁は 実験室でモディファイされた合成(人工)DNAには特許を認めるとした(後略)
WASHINGTON ? American and European intelligence analysts now believe that President Bashar al-Assad’s troops have used chemical weapons against rebel forces in the civil war in Syria, an assessment that will put added pressure on a deeply divided Obama administration to develop a response to a provocation that the president himself has declared a “red line.”
カーマン氏らは、遺伝子組み換え穀物の影響を調べるには、さらに長期的な動物飼育研究が必要だとしている。 ロイター 2013年 06月 12日 17:37 JST http://jp.reuters.com/article/oddlyEnoughNews/idJPTYE95B05V20130612 A long-term toxicology study on pigs fed a combined genetically modified (GM) soy and GM maize diet Judy A. Carman, Howard R. Vlieger, Larry J. Ver Steeg, Verlyn E. Sneller, Garth W. Robinson, Catherine A. Clinch-Jones, Julie I. Haynes, & John W. Edwards Journal of Organic Systems Vol.8 No.1 Pages 38-54 (2013) http://www.organic-systems.org/journal/81/abstracts/8106.html
【PC関連】ロジテックからまた『最後のMOドライブ』、価格は強気の5万9800円 [06/14] 1:ライトスタッフ◎φ ★ :2013/06/14(金) 09:39:24.42 ID:??? ロジテックが一度は販売を終了していた MO ドライブに新製品「LMO-FC654U2W」を投入します。 USB 2.0 接続の外付け型で、6月下旬から直販サイト限定での販売です。
価格は強気の5万9800円。すでに予約受付中です。なお、OS は最新の Windwos 8 および OS X 10.8 にも対応します。使用可能な MO ディスクの容量は最大 640MB。 ロジテックは2011年末、 LMO -PBBU2W シリーズを「最後の MO ドライブ」と銘打って発売し、昨年夏までは販売していましたが、 その後いつのまにか生産・販売とも終了していました。また、LMO-FC654U2W にドライブを供給する 富士通も、この3月末で自社の MO ドライブ製品のサポートを打ち切っています。
3.5インチ MO は紛失しやすい USB メモリとは違い、ラベルにペンでタイトルを書き込めるちょうど いい大きさや、中身を把握しやすい 640MB という適度な容量でユーザーにとって扱いやすいものでした。
"The U.S. has become much more attractive to companies than Europe," Martin Wansleben, the head of the Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry, told the Handelsblatt newspaper last month. "Germany is in the process of getting sandwiched between Eastern Europe with its low labor costs and the U.S. with low energy costs." ドイツ商工会議所会頭のMartin Wanslebenは「アメリカがヨーロッパの企業にとって 魅力的に成った」とHandelsblatt 新聞のインタビューで言っている。「ドイツは 労働コストの安い東欧と、エネルギー・コストの安い米国の挟み撃ちに合っている」
In 2012, German households paid more than 2.5 times their American counterparts for residential electricity, according to the research firm GlobalData. 研究機関のGlobalDataの調査によれば2012年のドイツの平均的家庭はアメリカのそれ に比べて2.5倍の電気料金を支払っている
The cost gap between the two countries can be even greater for industry?and energy-intensive firms are taking note. BMW BMW.XE -1.43% is readying a second production line at its factory in Moses Lake, Wash., which opened in 2011. The Munich-based chemical maker Wacker is expanding capacity at its facility in Calvert City, Ky., and has twice increased production plans for a new plant it's building in Charleston, Tenn. The chemical and energy group BASF, BAS.XE -0.73% which is based in Ludwigshafen, is expanding its facilities in Wyandotte, Mich., and Monaca, Pa. In February BASF held a groundbreaking ceremony for its new plant in Freeport, Texas.
Morgan Stanley has a big new report on emerging markets, and the risk of the "tide" coming back out, i.e. all that liquidity leaving these markets, leaving them vulnerable. But who is the most vulnerable? In this big slide, Morgan Stanley looks at which countries are most exposed to what's known in the biz as a "Sudden Stop" a severe reversal of investment flows, which can lead to a country losing access to much needed dollars and market access. モーガン・スタンレーは最近のレポートで途上国の市場で、資本引き上げの大波が押し 寄せ、国内の流動性が枯渇する危険があるとしている モーガンスタンレーは、この危険性について、途上国を4つのグループに分けてリスク の程度を示している ttp://static3.businessinsider.com/image/51bae66369beddc01000003b-800-/screen%20shot%202013-06-14%20at%205.42.21%20am.png
The Chinese government failed to sell all its bonds at an auction on Friday, a sign of how cash has become increasingly tight in the slowing economy. 金曜日の中国の国債のオークションが未完売となり、経済の低迷する中キャッシュの 不足が顕著であることが印象づけられた
The finance ministry sold only Rmb9.5bn ($1.5bn) of the Rmb15bn in government debt on offer, the first time in nearly two years that Beijing has fallen short of its target bond sale. The failure stemmed from a jump in money market rates that has occurred because the central bank has refused to pump liquidity into the economy despite signs of stress in the banking system. Analysts said the sudden tightness in China’s financial system was the latest indication of how the government appears willing to tolerate slower growth to control some of the risks that have built up in the economy. これは150億元の国債の中で95億元のみが販売されたものでマネーマーケットの金利は 上昇、中央銀行は市場に流動性を提供することをしなかった。アナリストは中国政府の 突然の引き締めは政府が低成長を容認している証と見ている。中国の経済事象の中に 起きているリスクを管理するために、それはやむを得ないと判断していると見られる
・・・The results of these efforts have been most immediately clear in the money market, where rates have jumped over the past 10 days. The seven-day bond repurchase rate, a key gauge of short-term liquidity, hit 6.87 per cent on Friday, up from less than 3 per cent a month ago.
Since Japan has become the new provider of marginal liquidity to global markets, the dollar-yen exchange rate has become an essential yardstick for global market sentiment. That's why when the dollar strengthens against the yen, the S&P 500 tends to rally. Conversely, when the dollar weakens against the yen, it typically coincides with weakness in U.S. stocks.
その理由: "Official total social financing has tumbled in recent months. We believe the series of policy tightening measures applied to the shadow banking sector in the past three months has reached a critical mass, such that deleveraging in the banking sector is happening," said Zhang. 公表されたTSF(total social financing)は低落している。政府はシャドーバンキン グシステムに対する引き締めを過去3ヶ月継続している。この結果、銀行セクターの デレバレッジが起こっている。
"Liquidity tightening can be very damaging to a highly leveraged economy. Many local government financing vehicles rely on new debt issuance to pay the interest on their outstanding debt because they are operating-cash-flow negative," he added. 高度にレバレッジされた経済にとって、流動性の引き締めはとても有害であり得て、 多くの地方政府は、その抱える負債がキャッシュ・フロー・ネガティブであるので 金利の支払いを、新たな金融商品(financing vehicles)の発行に依存している
Total social financing, a broad measure of liquidity in the economy, fell to 1.2 trillion yuan ($195 billion) in May from 1.7 trillion yuan in April and 2.5 trillion yuan in March, according to Nomura. TSF(Total social financing)は広義の流動性を意味するが、4月の1.7兆元、3月の 2.5兆元から5月の1.2兆元(1950億ドル)に減少している
As financing costs rise, it will make it difficult for local governments to sustain their projects, which in turn will weigh on fixed asset investment in the coming months, Zhang said. And, with policymakers appearing to be more tolerant of lower growth rates, he believes it is unlikely the government will step in with stimulus. 地方政府はファイナンス・コストの増加によって(開発)プロジェクトを維持できなく なる為に固定資産投資が減少することになろうとZhangが述べている。政策決定者が 低成長を容認する姿勢に傾いている為に、政府が経済刺激策を繰り出す可能性は少な いと彼は見ている。
Over the course of the second quarter, investors have become more wary about the outlook for China's economy, with key manufacturing and export sectors increasingly exhibiting signs of weakness. This had led to a slew of downgrades by banks, with Morgan Stanley the latest to lower its annual growth forecast for China to 7.4 percent this week. China's official target for the year is 7.5 percent.
ttp://www.zdnet.com/how-did-mainstream-media-get-the-nsa-prism-story-so-hopelessly-wrong-7000016822/ How did mainstream media get the NSA PRISM story so hopelessly wrong? Summary: Last week's bombshell stories by The Guardian and The Washington Post accused some of the biggest names in tech of willingly working with the NSA to give up your data. It now appears that those stories misread the technical details and got the story wrong. By Ed Bott for The Ed Bott Report | June 14, 2013 -- 12:09 GMT (05:09 PDT) NSAのPRISMについて、ガーディアンとワシントン・ポストの最初の報道は技術的に見て おかしなもので、明らかに誤っていた。その後報道は訂正されてはいるが読者に誤った 印象を与えた ZDネット
Jenny White, an anthropologist at Boston University and an expert on Turkey, argues that “those who think he has lost his cool and is reacting blindly may find that this crackdown is Erdogan’s pragmatic strategy to shut down the protests once and for all.” ボストン大学のトルコ専門家であるJenny Whiteは首相が実際的な戦略を用いて抗議行動 を一挙に潰すという。
But can it work? One big reason for Mr Erdogan’s enduring popularity is his successful management of the economy. His polarising tactics may rally his base, but they appear to be spooking investors at a time when the economic outlook had already darkened (see article). And behind his bravado is a worry about the future. それはうまくゆくだろうか?首相の高い支持率の一つの大きな原因は、これまでの経済 運営の成功である。首相の(国民を)二極化させるやり方は支持基盤を固めるものにな るが、それは明らかに(海外の)投資家を、経済の先行きが暗転しているときに動揺さ せるものである。
Behind the macho posturing, some detect a hint of panic in Mr Erdogan, which could yet make the situation worse. Why is he planning separate rallies in Istanbul and Ankara this weekend? And what message will he deliver? When supporters greeted Mr Erdogan on his return from north Africa on June 6th, they chanted “let’s crush Taksim” and “minority don’t test our patience”. As Ms White warns, “if Erdogan puts a club in their hands and points the way, they will become like the thugs that appeared in Tahrir Square.” エルドアン首相のマッチョなポーズの裏に一部の人はパニックのヒントを見ている。 今週末にイスタンブ^ーるとアンカラで(支持者の)集会を開くのはなぜか?そして どういうメッセージを出すつもりか?首相がアグリカ諸国訪問から帰った6日に支持者 等は「Taksim広場をクラッシュせよ」「マイノリティが我々の忍耐をテストすることは ない」などと叫んでいた。ボストン大学のトルコ専門家であるWhiteの言うように「もし 首相が指示者らに棍棒を渡せば、彼らは(エジプトの)Tahrir広場に現れた暴漢のよう に成るだろう」
I meet Camcioglu the day after last week's assault on nearby Taksim Square with teargas, water cannon and rubber bullets that cleared it of protesters. It's her first evening in the park, which days later would again be stormed by riot police.
"Turkey is like a traumatised adolescent," she explains. "We have had so many traumas, such as what happened with the Kurds, that we are finding it difficult to mature as a country. I'm not angry. And I'm not afraid. When I told my nine-year-old that I was planning to come here, he said: 'Don't go. Erdogan won't understand'." 「今のトルコ政府は心に傷を負った若者のようなものだ。つまりクルド族との問題 のような多くの問題があって、トルコは成熟するには未だ多くの問題を抱える。私 は、そのことで怒っているわけではないし、恐れているわけでもないが。私は私の 9歳の息子に Gezi公園に行くといった時に息子が言うには『行かないで。エルドア ンは理解することが出来ないのだから』」 ・・・・ If anything has changed in the last few days, it is that Erdogan and other senior officials appear to have recognised, at least, that such fears can be contagious. ・・・・ Turkey's prime minister showed his determination in moving to clear the park with water cannon and teargas. He may have won this battle, but the most serious crisis of Erdogan's 10 years in power is far from over.
For years, China has been way out front as the world's most important source of economic growth. While the country's mammoth economy ? the second largest in the world ? continues to grow at a rapid clip, it is cooling as other enormous economies heat up. Specifically, Japan ? the third largest economy ? is on the receiving end of massive monetary stimulus. And the U.S. ? the largest economy ? is picking up. 米国と日本が経済成長回復に向かっている
From Societe Generale's new quarterly Global Economic Outlook report: End of China growth dominance: China has long been the dominant driver of Asia growth, but this is no longer the case as the economy undergoes a structural slowdown. Japan has engaged policy stimulus and US recovery marks an additional positive for global growth. The PBoC has resisted the temptation to ease and, looking ahead, we expect to see tighter credit conditions in China act as an additional brake on economic activity. The Fed’s QE exit may amplify the situation, drawing out capital and placing downward pressure on the yuan. Structural reform will ultimately determine how painful the adjustment will be ? the right reform efforts have the potential to smooth the adjustment. 今後の中国経済の見通しについて、中国の厳しい金融引き締めが経済成長のブレーキと なりFRBのQE終焉がそれに輪をかける事に成るかもしれない。つまり資本の海外流失が 中国元に下向きの圧力と成る。中国経済の構造改革は痛みを伴い調整の努力が続く。
"We have our Istanbul rally tomorrow. I say it clearly: Taksim Square must be evacuated, otherwise this country's security forces know how to evacuate it," he told tens of thousands of flag-waving supporters at a rally in Ankara. エルドアン首相はアンカラで数万人の支持者の参加した集会で演説し「明日はイスタン ブールで与党支持者の行進を行う。Taksim広場は回復されなくてはならず、この国の 治安維持部隊は、それを行う方法を知っている」と述べた。
Local television footage showed groups of demonstrators blocking a main highway to Ataturk airport on the western edge of the city, while to the east, several hundred walked towards a main bridge crossing the Bosphorus waterway towards Taksim. ローカルTVの報道した映像によれば一連の抗議行動者が市内の西端でアタチェルク空港 へのメイン・ハイウェイをブロックし、東部では数百人がボスポラス海峡の橋からTaksim 広場に向けて行進した
Thousands more rallied in the working-class Gazi neighbourhood, which saw heavy clashes with police in the 1990s, while protesters also gathered in Ankara around the central Kugulu Park, including opposition MPs who sat in the streets in an effort to prevent the police from firing teargas. Gazi公園の周辺部で数千人が行進した。アンカラでも市の中心部のKugulu Parkで野党の 議員を含む抗議行動者が警官隊に対峙して座り込みを行った A main public-sector union confederation, KESK, which has some 240,000 members, said it would call a national strike for Monday, while a second union grouping said it was holding an emergency meeting to decide whether to join the action. 24万人の組合員を持つ公共労組連合のKESKは月曜日のストライキを呼びかけている。 別の組合連合は緊急会議を開いて対応策を検討中。
一言で言えば、風力発電に過大な期待をかけたドイツの計画は大失敗で、電力価格 の高騰、北部の風力発電地帯から南部の産業地帯への大規模な送電網の建設計画は 各種の反対運動や調整不足で難航、インターミッテントで安定的定常的な発電ので きない風力発電に必要な大規模エネルギー貯蔵システムは依然としてファンタジー のレベルで、風力発電の不毛さを回避するための大胆な政策変更は必須であるが政 治的に極めて厄介な問題になっている云々 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21579149-germanys-energiewende-bodes-ill-countrys-european-leadership-tilting-windmills Energy:Tilting at windmills Germany’s Energiewende bodes ill for the country’s European leadership Jun 15th 2013 |From the print edition ドイツの風力発電への依存 ドイツの風力発電振興計画はドイツがヨーロッパの指導的位置を占める上で厄介者 になりそうな。 エコノミスト、15日
By 2022 all nuclear power plants, which now produce 16% of the country’s electricity, are to be switched off. And by 2050 about 80% of electricity is to come from renewable sources, compared with 22% now. 現在ドイツの発電量の16%を占める原子力発電は2022年に全て停止される。ドイツ の計画では2050年に80%のエネルギーは再生可能エネルギーとするとしているが、 現在その比率は22%(でもすでに多くの問題を起こしている) On current plans Germany needs more than 4,000km of new transmission lines by 2022, of which less than 300km have been built. One reason is the Osterath mentality: people see no paradox in demanding an end to nuclear power but objecting to the new transmission grid being built in their backyard. 2022年までにドイツは北部や北海のオフショア発電からの送電網を4000km建設する 必要がある。現在までに300kmが建設されている。しかし送電網の通る地域の住民 は反対運動を起こしている。(現状は計画に比べて7年遅れている)
こうした違いは、「避難所」となる非・BT作物のための十分な土地を、栽培者が別に設けているかどうかによって生まれるという。 「避難所」という考えは、進化生物学からくるものだ。 耐性を授ける遺伝子は劣性であるため、害虫は耐性遺伝子を両親から1つずつ引き継いだ場合のみ、BT作物への耐性を持つことができる。 BT作物の畑の近くに「避難所」を作れば、耐性を持つ害虫同士が交配して子孫に2つの同じ遺伝子を与える可能性を減らすことができる。 以下略 ▽記事引用元 AFPBBNews 2013年06月11日 14:05配信記事 http://www.afpbb.com/article/environment-science-it/environment/2949713/10887620 ▽関連 Nature Biotechnology 31, 510?521 (2013) doi:10.1038/nbt.2597 Received 24 October 2012 Accepted 26 March 2013 Published online 10 June 2013 Insect resistance to Bt crops: lessons from the first billion acres http://www.nature.com/nbt/journal/v31/n6/abs/nbt.2597.html
Businessmen say the Energiewende will kill German industry. Power experts worry about blackouts. Voters are furious about ever higher fuel bills. The chaos undermines Germany’s claim to efficiency, threatens its vaunted competitiveness and unnecessarily burdens households. It also demonstrates Germany’s curious refusal to think about Europe strategically. ビジネスマンは風力依存のグリーン・エネルギー計画がドイツの産業を壊滅させる という。電力業界の専門家は(風力発電のインターミッテントの性格から)ブラッ クアウトを心配する。有権者は高騰を続ける電力料金に憤慨している。これらの混 乱は産業競争力を揺るがし、一般家庭の負担を増やす。ドイツのこだわりというの は奇妙でさえ有る。
Whatever their origin, the environmental convictions run deep. The Greens, an environmentalist party founded only three decades ago, are now a powerful political force. They won more than 10% of the national vote in the 2009 federal elections and do a lot better still in many urban areas. ドイツのグリーン勢力というのは30年前に(ソビエトの共産党の権威失墜の時期に) 生まれていて、2009年選挙では国内有権者の10%を超える指示者を持つ。グリーン 党は都市部で依然として有力である。
The Energiewende’s formal targets were set in the early 2000s, when the Greens were the junior partner in a coalition with the SPD under Gerhard Schroder. A renewable-energy law passed in 2000 promised 20 years of guaranteed prices and priority access to the power grid for anyone who installed wind, solar or other renewable sources. These “feed-in tariffs” were paid for by a surcharge on all electricity bills. To protect German competitiveness, the most energy-intensive firms, such as producers of chemicals, were spared the extra whack.
*この失敗した計画は大幅な見直しと、ファンダメンタルな変更が必要であるが The question is how boldly to revise the plans for getting there. With the election looming, Mrs Merkel has taken a timid, tactical approach. The talk is of tinkering with feed-in tariffs, fiddling with corporate exemptions and encouraging the states to speed up the expansion of the grid.
The strategically minded are pushing for more fundamental overhauls. Bold ideas include replacing the pricing distortions with a market based on production capacity rather than output: power producers would be paid by the amount of capacity they had installed rather than the amount of electricity they actually produced.
Such boldness would be good for German economic rebalancing and for Europe as a whole. After all, Europeans live so close to each other that a national energy policy makes little sense: how safe is a reactor-free Germany when nuclear power stations go on running next door in France, the Czech Republic and, in due course, in Poland?
Historically, electric utility companies built power plants to last 30 years, and those same plants with a little refurbishment are lasting 50 and 60 years, helping to keep electricity prices low in this country despite government regulations that increase the cost of electricity. Those government policies created our renewable energy boom and have resulted in the construction of high-priced electric power plants. For example, according to the Energy Information Administration, a photovoltaic solar power plant produces electricity that is more than twice as expensive as a natural gas combined cycle plant.[i] And, according to the New York Times, these plants may not be lasting their expected 25 year lifetime. For example, a solar power plant in sunny California has malfunctioned in just 2 years. The New York Times reported that first, the coatings that protect the solar panels disintegrated and then other defects caused two fires, needing to take the system offline for 2 years. Lost revenues totaled hundreds of thousands of dollars and similar problems are occurring around the globe.[ii]
中国製太陽光パネルの問題 One company with a manufacturing plant in Shanghai found the defect rate had increased from 7.8 percent to 13 percent. In another case, audits of 50 Chinese factories over the last 18 months resulted in defect rates that increased from 5.5 percent to 22 percent. One Chinese solar manufacturer, Suntech, who was the world’s largest solar panel manufacturing company, was forced into bankruptcy when the government slashed subsidies this past March. ある上海の太陽光パネル製造会社は不良率が7.8%から13%に増大、過去18ヶ月に 中国の50の太陽光パネル製造会社の調査では不良率が5.5%から22%に増大。世界 最大のサンテックは政府補助金がなくなって倒産している。
ヨーロッパの経験 The German solar monitoring firm, Meteocontrol, found that 80 percent of the 30,000 solar installations it reviewed in Europe were underperforming. Enertis Solar tested solar panels from 6 manufacturers at two power plants in Spain and found rates of malfunctioning as high as 34.5 percent. An inspection of a new solar plant in Britain found that 12 percent of its Chinese modules failed. In the United States, an American solar manufacturer, First Solar, budgeted $271.2 million to replace defective modules it manufactured in 2008 and 2009. ドイツの調査会社が30000件の導入事例を調査し、その80%は当初計画通りの性能 を発揮していない。スペインの2つの太陽光発電所の6つのメーカー製品を調査し た結果では不良率は34.5%にも昇る。英国の調査例では中国製パネルの12%が故障 である。アメリカのソーラパネル製造会社であるFirst Solarhは不良パネルの取り 換え費用として$271.2Mを予算に計上していた。
これから現れてくる問題 As solar power plant construction increases, more quality problems may surface. In 2012, the United States installed 3,313 megawatts of solar capacity, bringing the total to 7,266 megawatts.[iii] Since about half the capacity was installed in 2012, it may be years before significant problems surface. In the meantime, U.S. policies are ensuring that we continue to construct these more expensive renewable technologies, while less expensive and proven technologies are shunned. 近年アメリカ国内の太陽光パネル発電が増加しているので、今後太陽光パネルの 品質問題が浮上してくることが予想される。
これはFTに掲載されたとても興味深い記事で、中国政府の「産評政策」とそれに 便乗して急成長を狙う中国の地方政府とのコンビネーションが中国流の設備過剰 や津波のような安売りダンピング輸出、市場独占と競争者の破綻を引き起こす事 を説明している。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4d5528ec-d412-11e2-8639-00144feab7de.html#axzz2WPEU6Dgh Last updated: June 16, 2013 6:29 pm Chinese industry: Ambitions in excess By Jamil Anderlini Overcapacity fuelled by subsidies threatens the world’s second-biggest economy 中国の産業:設備過剰を生み出す野心過剰 By Jamil Anderlini 政府の補助金の生み出す設備過剰が中国経済を脅かす FT 16日
In March, Suntech filed for bankruptcy protection. From a market value of $16bn at its peak, the company is now worth about $180m. The sun king has been dethroned as chairman. In fact, the solar industry is only the most pronounced example of broader overcapacity in China. Its rise and fall has followed a pattern that is becoming familiar across the world’s second-biggest economy. 世界最大の太陽光パネル製造業者であるサンテックは、一時期の株式の時価総額 が160億ドル(1.6兆円)に達したが3月に倒産し現在の時価総額は$180M(180億 円)に過ぎない。サンテックに見られる中国製造業の極端な設備過剰は中国では 他の産業にも見られ、急速な勃興と凋落を繰り返している
The problems stem from China’s industrial policies and a vast array of subsidies that allow whole sectors to spring up overnight. Ambitious local officials are keen to lavish government money on what they hope will be success stories that can further their careers. “When you have administrative measures you get huge overcapacity and this country has created overcapacity in a whole lot of areas,” says Hank Paulson, former US Treasury secretary, who often visits China. “It’s not just clean technologies; steel, shipbuilding we can name all the areas.” 問題は、中国政府の産業政策と政府補助金によって、特定の産業セクターが 一夜にして勃興することである。野心的な地方政府は機会に便乗して政府の 資金を注ぎ込み、サクセスストーリーをつくり上げることで出世を望む。 前財務長官で頻繁に中国を訪問しているHank Paulsonは「政府が特定産業の 振興政策を打ち出すと、それが巨大な設備過剰を作り出す」という。「それ はクリーンテクノロジーに限ったことではなく、鉄鋼、造船、セメントその 他多くの産業に見られる」
Several studies have found that the ability of Chinese industry to dominate global manufacturing in certain sectors is largely due to subsidies, most of which are provided by local and provincial governments. In a recent study, Usha and George Haley, US-based academics, studied how Chinese steel, glass, paper and auto parts producers turned from bit players and net importers to the world’s largest manufacturers and exporters in just a couple of years. In each of these highly fragmented, capital-intensive industries, labour accounted for between 2 and 7 per cent of costs and the vast majority of companies enjoyed no economies of scope or scale.
最近の中国の産業構造への研究から指摘されているように中国の企業が 世界の市場でシェアを急拡大する原因として政府の支援金が有り多くは 省のレベルの地方政府とその下のレベルの地方政府に依る。米国の研究 者、Usha and George Haleyによれば、鉄鋼、ガラス、製紙、自動車部品 などは数年の間に小規模メーカーが世界最大級の製造者になっている。 これらの製造業は資本集約的で労働力集約的ではなく労務費のコストは 全体のコストの2−7%に過ぎない。
“Our findings contradict the widespread belief that China’s enormous success as an exporting nation derives primarily from low labour costs and deliberate currency undervaluation,” says Usha Haley. “There is enormous overcapacity and no gauging of supply and demand and we found that subsidies account for about 30 per cent of industrial output. Most of the companies we looked at would probably be bankrupt without subsidies.” 「私達の研究でわかったことは中国の輸出産業の成功の原因は安い労働 力や過小評価の通貨のため(という定説)ではないということだ」と Usha Haleyはいう「ここには巨大な設備過剰があって需要と供給のチェ ック&バランスはない。政府補助金は産業生産の30%に達する。殆どの 企業は、この政府補助金無しには恐らく破産するだろう」
Some of the most heavily subsidised companies in China are automakers, such as Chery, BYD and Geely. Some analysts predict they will ultimately meet the same fate as the handset makers. ・・・ Another big problem for almost every industry is that companies’ investment and growth plans have been predicated on the belief that the government would never allow growth to drop below 8 or 9 per cent. ・・・
“The problem with subsidies everywhere is they tend to support activity not outcomes and they become more of a problem when they’re just subsidising inefficiencies,” says John Rice, vice-chairman of General Electric, who heads GE’s global operations from Hong Kong. (後略)
それは、どういう政府補助金かというと Besides direct cash infusions, many local governments in China provide very cheap land, cheap credit, discounted utilities and tax breaks to state-owned and private companies that set up in their backyards.
The interbank market in China has seen rates soar in a reflection of tighter liquidity conditions as economic growth slows and savings are being pulled from deposits into higher yielding wealth management products. Last week rates rose to 9.6 per cent before falling back to about 7 per cent on Friday. A month ago they were less than 3 per cent. 中国のインターバンク市場で金利が高騰し先週は9.6%を付けたが金曜日には7%に 低下している。経済成長の鈍化する中で預金が引き出されハイイールドの富裕者向 け金融商品(wealth management products)に資金が流れ、流動性が引き締められて いる。インターバンク市場金利は先月には3%以下であった。
Concerns about the shadow banks ? institutions that take money from savers seeking higher rates than those allowed on deposits and lend them to borrowers the banks officially shun ? have become widespread, among government officials, bankers and investors. Fuelling the fears is a sense that the wealth management products lack transparency and often the ultimate borrower is the least desirable one. 中国のシャドー・バンキングに関心が集まっている。これは預金金利よりも高い 金利で集めた資金を、銀行が公的には回避するような借り手にファイナンスする もので、それらを行う機関が増加している。富裕者向けのハイイールド金融商品 は透明性に欠けており、望ましい借り手ではないことに憂慮が高まっている。
In addition, many of these products are funded with short-term capital, making them vulnerable to a maturity mismatch, since these products generally have a life of only a few months while the projects they finance are often long term. There are no definitive numbers of the size of the outstanding financing shadow banks provide but it could amount to about Rmb21trl or about 40 per cent of GDP, according to Deutsche Bank, with the wealth management products worth about Rmb15trl, while Merrill Lynch puts the figure at about Rmb11trl. この金融商品は数ヶ月程度の短期のもので借り手の長期ローンと期間のミスマッ チがあり(短期資金で長期のローンを賄うという)脆弱性がある。シャドーバンキ ングの規模について明確な数字はないがドイツ銀行の推定は21兆元でGDPの40% この内富裕層向け金融商品が15兆元としている。メリルリンチは後者を11兆元と 見ている。 (中略) Moreover, some of the marketing material states that, if the borrower does not have sufficient cash to repay the loan, the trust company acting as intermediary will merely issue another loan. Indeed, one of the big trades among hedge funds in Hong Kong is to short the shares of second tier banks in anticipation of growing defaults on shadow banking products. “Small banks could see their equity wiped out,” said one hedge fund manager, assuming that these banks will be forced to compensate investors if there are defaults. . However, others say that such trades are alarmist and China has the resources to cover defaults. They add that the pressure on rates is also due to technical settlement issues and quarter end outflows.
ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22930703 Unions in Turkey have called a one-day nationwide strike to protest against the police crackdown on anti-government demonstrations. The Confederation of Public Workers' Unions (KESK) and Confederation of Progressive Trade Unions (DISK) are demanding an end to "police violence". The move comes after continued sporadic clashes between protesters and police in Istanbul and the capital Ankara.
トルコの公共労組連合(KESK)と第二の規模をもつ民間労組連合(DISK)は 首相の抗議行動抑圧に抗議して1日の全国ストライキを呼びかけている Turkey unrest: Unions call strike over crackdown BBC
The agency said the scale of credit was so extreme that the country would find it very hard to grow its way out of the excesses as in past episodes, implying tougher times ahead. "The credit-driven growth model is clearly falling apart. This could feed into a massive over-capacity problem, and potentially into a Japanese- style deflation," said Charlene Chu, the agency's senior director in Beijing. "There is no transparency in the shadow banking system, and systemic risk is rising. We have no idea who the borrowers are, who the lenders are, and what the quality of assets is, and this undermines signalling," 信用に依存しすぎた経済が困難にぶつかっていて巨大な過剰設備の問題を起こして いる。これは日本型のデフレをきたすおそれがあると北京の同社・上級部長である Charlene Chuが述べた。シャドーバンキングのは透明性がなくシステミックリスク が増大している。我々は債権者や債務者が誰かを知らない。またその資産の品質も 知らない。(後略)
○先週来の流動性不足は中国経済の成長鈍化を懸念した外資の急速な流入の減少がひ とつの理由。この流動性不足は銀行が富裕層向けに販売するハイイールド金融商品 の支払いに困難をきたす事を招いている Traders and economists cite a sudden reduction in foreign capital inflows? the result of China's recent crackdown on speculative money flows and of a slowing economy?as one of the main reasons for the ongoing cash squeeze. That is because companies aren't converting as much foreign currency into China's currency, the yuan, resulting in less yuan funds flowing into the economy. Adding to the shortage of funds is additional demand for cash so that banks can meet the obligations of repaying investors who hold some high-yielding investment products sold by banks, known as wealth-management products.
○中央銀行は中国の急速なクレジットの成長を止める事を目標にしていてTSF(Total social financing、中国の広義の流動性)成長は5月に3分の1だけ減少。しかし今年 の1−5月でTSFは昨年に比べて52%増になっている Total social financing, China's widest measure of credit that includes both bank loans and credit created outside formal banking channels, fell by about one-third to 1.19 trillion yuan in May from April, the second month of substantial decline. But the central bank still has a way to go to curb overall lending: In the first five months of 2013, total social financing was up 52% from 2012.
○中央銀行の支援する金融ジャーナルは月曜日に、国内の銀行を批判する論評を掲載 銀行は自分の資金運用を改善すべきで中央銀行への過度の期待は非合理という A commentary published on Monday by China's Financial Times, a newspaper backed by the PBOC, dismissed the prospect of a liquidity crisis in China's money market but said some individual banks suffered funding problems because they had relied heavily on borrowing short-term funds in the interbank market and exceeded regulatory limits on lending. The article also said banks should sort out the funding problems on their own and shouldn't count on the PBOC to step in to provide liquidity.
○UBSのアナリストはPBOCが緩和政策ではなくクレジット増大の抑制に動く事に変化 はないと見ている "Through the events over the past week, we think the PBOC has made it clear that overly rapid credit expansion would not be accommodated, and that the PBOC still focuses more on the quantity of credit and money supply rather than on short-term interest rates," said Wang Tao, an economist at UBS AG.
ジャニー・モンゴメリー・スコットのチーフ債券ストラテジスト、ガイ・リーバス 氏は「市場は緊張状態にあり、資産購入を縮小する可能性に言及する文言はすべて ネガティブに取るだろう」と述べ、「金融当局はまだ縮小を実施する準備はできて いない。より柔軟に対応できるような戦略を策定する可能性はある」と指摘した。 ブルームバーグ・ボンド・トレーダーによれば、ニューヨーク時間午後3時26分現 在、10年債利回り は4ベーシスポイント(bp、1bp=0.01%)上昇して2.17%。 同年債(表面利率1.75%、2023年5月償還)の価格は11/32下落して96 9/32。 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- *この記事の言うFTの報道とは ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1f6e6926-d75e-11e2-8279-00144feab7de.html#axzz2WPEU6Dgh June 17, 2013 6:59 pm Fed likely to signal tapering move is close By Robin Harding in Washington
Ben Bernanke is likely to signal that the US Federal Reserve is close to tapering down its $85bn-a-month in asset purchases when he holds a press conference on Wednesday, but balance that by saying subsequent moves depend on what happens to the economy.(ry
But booms often last much longer than most analysts think they can. And unless or until we know exactly when China's boom will end--which, if history is a guide, we won't know until after the fact--it's hard to make decisions based on this forecast.
Yes, at some point, China's economy will crack. Alas, no one knows when.
Behind the fading EM story is a relentless loss of competitiveness as reform slackens and productivity growth slows. Nowhere is that clearer than in Brazil, left high and dry with a half-reformed, dirigiste economy when iron ore prices crashed. It faces stagflation, with growth of 0.9pc last year. Manufacturing output is down 3pc below its pre-Lehman peak.
China's consumer confidence declined sharply in May to 99.0 from 103.7 in April. Of course household spending in China represents only around 35% of the GDP (according to the World Bank), while the US consumer is over 70%. Nevertheless taken together with China's manufacturing PMI, we may be seeing signs of renewed economic weakness. 中国の消費者信頼感指数が4月の103.7から5月には99.0と急落している。勿論、中国 のGDPに占める個人消費は35%とアメリカの70%の半分なので、この影響はアメリカ ほど大きくはないのだが、下図に示すように中国のPMIの動きと対比して眺めると中 国経済の先行きが憂慮される
Perhaps the most ominous indicator of China's potential slowdown is the nation's inverted long-term interest rate curve. The chart below shows the latest quotes on domestic interest rate swaps. Inverted yield curves often signal an economic downturn in the near future. 恐らく中国経済の成長鈍化を示す最も不吉な兆候というのは中国の長期金利カーブ の反転であろう。下図の示すのは中国の金利スワップのbid/askで、イールドカーブ の反転は先行きの経済下降を意味する
Just to put things in perspective, this is what the US treasury curve looked like about 9 months prior to the start of the Great Recession. このグラフを理解しやすくするために、下図をあげておくのだが、これはアメリカの 経済危機の起こる9ヶ月前(2007年4月)の財務省債券のイールドカーブである
Officers raided the homes of around 90 members of the Socialist Party of the Oppressed (ESP), a small leftist group that has been active in Istanbul's Gezi Park protest at the centre of the nationwide protest movement, the Istanbul bar association said.
また搜索を受けたトルコのメディアというのはESP関連のAtilim daily と Etkin news
Police also searched the offices of the Atilim daily and the Etkin news agency, local media outlets linked to the ESP group, the NTV and CNN-Turk television stations reported. NTV said 30 people were arrested in the capital Ankara and another 13 in the northwestern city of Eskisehir in a police swoop targeting 21 provinces overall. ttp://www.thenews.com.pk/article-105794-Police-arrest-over-100-in-swoop-on-Turkey-protesters
Once a source of seemingly insatiable demand for iron ore, China’s demand has begun to wane, and will likely remain so as we believe the economy’s steel consumption intensity is beginning to peak, just as it had for Japan when it went through a 15-year cycle of industrialisation:
(FTアルファビレから) Then Anne-Stevenson Yang at j Capital: We are all in an information vacuum. Clearly liquidity remains very tight even on Intervention Tuesday. We’re still two weeks out from Audit, so it seems unlikely this is temporary. I see it as part and parcel of the March moves to tighten up on irregular assets in the interbank market and I feel, without knowing for sure, that the mid-tier banks, the dodgiest of all, are in the crosshairs.
And finally, Tao Wang at UBS:
Through the events over the past week, we think the PBC has made it clear that overly-rapid credit expansion would not be accommodated, and that the PBC still focuses more on the quantity of credit and money supply rather than on short-term interest rates. In other words, if banks let credit growth go too fast, the PBC does not mind the spike in interbank rates in order to rein them in. The recent episode may lead to banks trimming their credit exposure and manage liquidity more prudently henceforth, although there is a small risk that this could lead to a credit crunch in the short run. As such, we think the PBC will improve liquidity provision only gradually in the coming days and weeks, and do not expect any rate cut or reserve requirement cut. Behind all these is perhaps the central government’s increased tolerance for slower growth and increased attention to controlling financial risks. ttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/06/18/1537062/when-liquidity-meets-control-in-china/
Chinese telecoms giant Huawei will launch a new smartphone on Tuesday to better compete with high-end rivals like Apple and Samsung overseas, a company official said. Huawei will unveil the Ascend P6 in London in one of its major smartphone launches of the year, Huawei spokesman Roland Sladek told AFP. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.slashgear.com/huawei-ascend-p6-leaks-in-full-and-it-sure-does-look-like-an-iphone-18286789/ Huawei Ascend P6 leaks in full (and it sure does look like an iPhone) Chris Davies, Jun 18th 2013 リークされたHuaweiの新型スマホ、 Ascend P6はiPhoneにそっくり(写真あり)
ttp://www.piie.com/blogs/china/?p=2758 Why China Does Not Need to Worry About Japanese QE by Ryan Rutkowski | June 17th, 2013 | 09:30 am 中国は何故、日本の金融緩和政策(アベノミクス)を心配する必要はないかについて by Ryan Rutkowski(ピーターソン国際経済研究所)
The April edition of the IMF’s Asia Pacific Economic Outlook identified two potential spillovers of Japanese QE into other Asian economies: financial spillovers and trade spillovers. Neither of which are necessarily bad for China. IMFのアジア太平洋地域の経済見通し4月版では日本の緩和政策の波及について、 金融面と通商面に分けて述べているが、この両者ともに中国にとって不利なもの ではない
日本の金融緩和に依る景気拡大は中国製品の日本への輸出にとってポジティブ である。日本市場は中国の輸出にとって第三位の(米国とEUにつぐ)大きな市場 である The net result of Japanese QE could in fact be positive for China. Japan is the third largest consumer of Chinese exports after the United States and the EU and recent weakness has impacted China’s overall export profile.
IMFの報告書の指摘するように中国はじめアジア太平洋州の経済にとって最大の リスクは日本の金融緩和ではなくて、中国の開発投資の過剰の修正による経済 への悪影響で・・・ The greatest risk to the region is not Japanese QE but China’s slowing investment growth. In November of last year an IMF working paper on over- investment in China found that the country would need to lower its investment by 10 percent of GDP in order to bring investment growth back to “normal” levels and support rebalancing. If the pace of this slowdown in investment demand is not managed well, it will have a significant impact on existing Asian exporters to China. The IMF found that if Chinese domestic fixed asset investment were to slow-down by 10 percentage points, Asia’s output would fall by .5 to 2 percent. And Japan ? a major exporter to China ? would be among the hardest hit with real GDP declining by 2.28 percent two years out.
下記はピーターソン国際経済研究所の所長であるAdam S. Posenがドイツの新聞Die Welt にに書いているドイツ経済への評論(批判)の英語訳。ここで述べられている「ドイツ経 済の問題」というのは国内メディアなどで議論されるのを見たことがない。大変興味深い ドイツ経済論だけれど、少々スレのメインテーマから離れ気味なので要約しない ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.piie.com/publications/opeds/oped.cfm?ResearchID=2424 Getting Germany Past Internal Devaluation by Adam S. Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics Op-ed in Die Welt June 9, 2013 English version c Peterson Institute for International Economics
In recent years, the Jackson Hole keynote has been an important stage for signaling big shifts in U.S. monetary policy, a key driver of economic dynamics not only in America, but around the world.
This year, the most important signal from the keynote may not be in the contents of the speech, but in who is delivering it in Bernanke's place: Federal Reserve Vice Chairwoman Janet Yellen, who is widely tipped as the frontrunner to replace Bernanke when his term expires in January.
If Obama does select Yellen to replace Bernanke, she will become the first woman ever to chair the Federal Reserve, putting her in arguably the most powerful policy-making role in the world. And of course, unless you follow the Fed, you've probably never heard of her.