FAOは2013年を「国際キヌアの年(International Year of Quinoa)」と定め、 食糧安全保障や栄養状態の改善、貧困撲滅の手段として、この「スーパー穀物」の普及を 推進する計画だ。 FAOのジョゼ・グラジアノ・ダ・シルバ(Jose Graziano da Silva)事務局長は、 キヌアの栄養価を多くの人に知らせたいと述べた。
A BofA Merrill Lynch survey shows more fund managers have been pulling money out of stocks and increasing allocations to cash and bonds. BoAメリルリンチの調査によればファンドマネージャーは株式市場から資金を引き上げてキャッシュと債券の比率を高めている Managers overweight stocks dropped to 27% in early June, from 41% a month ago, according to the survey. Meanwhile, 18% of asset allocators are overweight cash, representing the highest cash level since June 2010. 株式への資金配分は1ヶ月前の41%から6月初旬には27%に低下し18%のマネージャーがキャッシュをオーバーウェイトしている。 このキャッシュへの傾倒は2010年6月以降の高いものである(ry
For three years, Wall Street’s been telling the world how much it can’t stand President Barack Obama. Now, thanks to campaign finance filings, it’s possible to put a price tag on just how much: Mitt Romney's presidential campaign and the super PAC supporting it are outraising Obama among financial-sector donors $37.1 million to $4.8 million. Near the front of the pack are 19 Obama donors from 2008 who are giving big to Romney. The 19 have already given $4.8 million to Romney’s presidential campaign and the super PAC supporting it through the end of April, according to a POLITICO analysis of Federal Election Commission filings. Four years ago, they gave Obama $213,700. None of them has given a penny to the president’s reelection campaign or the super PAC supporting it. 金融セクターの政党外の政治資金集金団体(super PAC)は、圧倒的にロムニー候補に献金している。ロムニー:オバマの金融セクター のsuper PACの献金額は$27.1M:$4.8Mである。2008年にオバマに献金した19の大口献金者が、今はロムニーに献金している。これら 大口献金者のロムニー候補への資金は既に$4.8Mにのぼっている。
ウオール街、金融セクターのオバマ離の原因は経済政策への不満、オバマ大統領が対ロムニーで階級闘争的な言辞を用いていること、また 富裕層への追加増税といったアイデアで・・ Anthony Scaramucci, a Manhattan hedge fund manager who made the Obama-to-Romney switch, said finance donors are migrating from Obama to Romney because “they feel that our country is in trouble ? that our economy is in trouble.” “There is so much dissatisfaction with the current president and his failed policies that we have found more and more people who are willing and wanting to get involved and who are eager to line up behind Gov. Romney,” Scaramucci said.
WaPo/ABCNewsの世論調査:大統領選で無党派・浮遊層はオバマの経済政策に不満 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/06/a-chilly-reception-from-independents-on-obamas-plans-for-the-economy/ Swing-voting independents see Barack Obama’s plans for the economy negatively rather than positively by 54-38 percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, marking the president’s challenges as he seeks re-election in still-troubled economic times. It’s no party for Mitt Romney either. Independents also rate his economic plans more unfavorably than favorably, by 47-35 percent. But more are undecided, giving Romney some room to maneuver; unlike Obama, Romney avoids majority criticism in this group. WaPo/ABCNewsの行った最新の世論調査によれば、無党派層のスイングボーターは、オバマ大統領の経済政策をネガティブに捉えていること が解った。否定的:好意的の比率は54−38である。しかしながら、この層のロムニー候補への好感度は高くはなくて非好感:好感の比率は 47−35である。
Obama’s economic program is especially unpopular ? by 2 to 1 among whites, though he does far better than Romney among nonwhites. Obama also crosses the 50 percent negative line among registered voters, who see his economic program unfavorably rather than favorably by 51-43 percent. Romney’s rating among registered voters is 46 to 40 percent unfavorable-favorable, again with more undecided. オバマ大統領について、経済への不満が特に強く、白人層で2−1の比率で不満がある。登録済有権者の50%がオバマ大統領に非好感とみな され、51−43の比率である。ロムニー候補への非好感:好感は46−40である
Obama’s challenges vs. Romney show more starkly when two of the president’s weaker groups are combined ? independents who are registered to vote. In this group, more see Obama’s economic plans unfavorably than favorably by 56-36 percent; on Romney’s it’s 45-39 percent. 登録済の無党派層ではオバマの経済政策への非好感:好感は56−36と不満が多い。此れに対してロムニーは45−39である。 ttp://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/06/a-chilly-reception-from-independents-on-obamas-plans-for-the-economy/ A Chilly Reception from Independents on Obama’s Plans for the Economy Jun 13, 2012 7:00am 無党派層のオバマ経済政策への冷めた受け取り方 ABCニュースブログ
The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Romney with 47% of the vote to Obama’s 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) Prior to this survey, Obama's support in the state has ranged from 45% to 52%, while Romney has earned 41% to 45%. Last month, the numbers were Obama 49%, Romney 45%. The president led his likely Republican challenger by 11 points in March - 52% to 41%. 最新のウイスコンシン州でのラスムッセン世論調査では、オバマ対ロムニーが44%:47%となり、ロムニーが従来の劣位を逆転。 以前のウイスコンシン州世論調査ではオバマ支持率は45%〜50%であった。此れに対して従来のロムニーの支持率は41〜45%であった。
The AFL-CIO has told Washington Whispers it will redeploy funds away from political candidates smack dab in the middle of election season, the latest sign that the largest federation of unions in the country could be becoming increasingly disillusioned with President Obama. The federation says the shift has been in the works for months, and had nothing to do with the president's failure to show in Wisconsin last week, where labor unions led a failed recall election of Governor Scott Walker. AFL-CIO はワシントン・ウイスパーに語って選挙シーズンの最中に資金の引き上げを行うという。巨大労組がオバマ大統領に幻滅している ことを示すかもしれない。 "We wanted to start investing our funds in our own infrastructure and advocacy," AFL-CIO spokesman Josh Goldstein told Whispers. "There will be less contributions to candidates," including President Obama. AFL-CIO の広報官のJosh Goldsteinは「我々は資金を組織のインフラや支援活動に使いたい」と述べた。オバマ大統領はじめ政治家への献金 が「より少なくなるだろう」という。
While there were "a lot of different opinions" about whether Obama should have gone to Wisconsin, according to Goldstein, "this is not a slight at the president." The AFL-CIO has been at odds with the president before Wisconsin on issues such as the public health insurance option and renewing the Bush tax cuts. The shift in funding is significant due to the federation's role in past presidential campaigns, where the AFL-CIO built up a massive political structure in the months leading up the election, including extensive "Get Out The Vote" efforts, as well as financial contributions. 巨大労組の資金のシフトは、それが過去に行なってきた選挙支援活動の規模の大きさ、政治献金や草の根の投票勧誘行動などに鑑みて影響が 大きい。
"We will change the way we spend, the way we do things and the way we function that creates power for workers," Trumka said, according to the Associated Press. AFL-CIO donated $1.2 million to Democrats in 2008, and $900,000 in 2010, according to the Christian Post. It is unclear how much will be donated in 2012. AFL-CIO代表のTrumkaはPni資金の使用用途の見直しを行うと述べている。AFL-CIOは2008年大統領選挙に$1.2Mを、2010年に$0.9Mを献金 してきたが2012年については不明である。
In July 2008, the leading German newsmagazine Der Spiegel couldn’t contain itself in its reporting on Barack Obama’s speech in Berlin. The coverage was rapturous. “The people of Berlin experienced the full range of Barack Obama’s charisma on Thursday evening,” it enthused. “At times he was reserved, at others engaging. Sometimes combative, and also demanding.” Der Spiegel called him “the trans-Atlantic bridge builder” who wowed 200,000 Germans as he proved himself a “save the world orator” who would expunge the evils of the unpopular Bush administration. My, how times have changed. This week ? almost exactly four years later ? Der Spiegel is back with a cover story featuring a glum and dejected Obama: “Sad,” the headline reads. “Obama’s Unlucky Presidency.” ドイツでは初期のオバマの人気が高く、期待は大きかったのだが、最近の雑誌シュピーゲルのカバーには失望を示すものが。
The article inside notes that “Obama has not lived up to the high expectations Europeans had of him.” It reads like the kind of plaintive wail about lost opportunities we hear from American liberals. 記事では「オバマはヨーロッパの高い期待に答えることが無かった」という・・
After Spain, the focus of the euro crisis has now shifted to Italy, which is struggling with a shrinking economy and rising bond yields. Prime Minister Mario Monti has denied that his country will ask for an EU bailout, but optimism about Italy's future is in short supply. スペインの次は、ユーロ危機はイタリアにフォーカスがシフトする。縮小化する経済と高まる国債イールドに苦慮するイタリアでは マリオ・モンティ首相がEUへの救済要請を否定しているが、イタリア経済に楽観できる要素は少ない。 Italy's battered economy desperately needs stimulus, but the downward trend is continuing unabated: ・Italy's industrial output is falling almost every month. Since early 2008, the country's total production has shrunk by about a quarter. ・The unemployment rate has increased from 8 to 10 percent over the last 12 months. Among the under-25s, it has risen from 28 to 36 percent. These figures may even be understating the problem: Many of the unemployed no longer bother to register, meaning they are not included in the statistics. ・Italy's gross domestic product (GDP) will decrease this year amid the deepening recession. The Italian central bank has said it will be satisfied if the decline does not exceed 1.5 percent. ・A raft of other indicators, including net national income, consumer demand and standard of living, are also falling. ・The only thing that is growing is Italy's mountain of debt, which is already at 120 percent of GDP and will probably exceed the ?2 trillion mark this year. As long as the economy is shrinking, it is very difficult to break through the vicious circle of debt, which almost automatically produces more new debt. ・・・・ Things must change, wrote the Italian business newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore in a commentary published Tuesday, echoing the current political sentiment. "Ms. Merkel, you can't go on like this," writes the newspaper in the piece, titled, in German, "Schnell, Frau Merkel" ("Quick, Ms Merkel"). "You will not get very far if you continue to be indifferent to the Greeks' anger and distant from the Spaniards' wounded pride, the Italians' fears and the anxieties of the French." The commentator appeals directly to the chancellor to act, arguing that: "A strong and healthy Germany cannot possibly exist amid the ruins of European countries." The reason why Merkel is not, however, acting quickly is addressed by the newspaper La Repubblica which quotes Monti as saying that Merkel is taking a hard line because of the upcoming 2013 national election in Germany. But Europe cannot wait that long, the newspaper quotes Monti as saying: "The time for hesitation" is over.
ttp://jbpress.ismedia.jp/articles/-/35455 ギリシャ救済、条件交渉の余地はごくわずか再選挙前に強硬姿勢を強める債権国 2012.06.15(金) Financial Times (2012年6月14日付 英フィナンシャル・タイムズ紙)By Joshua Chaffin in Brussels and Peter Spiegel and Quentin Peel in Berlin
Here’s your latest installment of headline roulette. Stocks have surged to session highs amid a headline from Reuters saying central banks are preparing coordinated efforts to provide liquidity if necessary after the Greek elections. The report is attributed to G-20 sources, and has not been independently verified. ロイターがギリシャ選挙後に、もし必要となれば諸国の中央銀行の協調による流動性提供を準備との噂を報道、G20筋をソースとするが この内容は独立的に確認できていない。この噂で株式は高騰。
That’s all the shorts needed to hear to go running for cover, which is sending stocks sharply higher during the final trading hour. The Dow is up 171 points, or 1.4%, to 12676, more than doubling its gains in a matter of minutes. The S&P 500 si up 1.2% and the Nasdaq Comp is up 0.6%. この噂で、市場の引け間近に株式が上昇しダウは↑171ポイント、1.4%うp
>>194 NYSEの引け直前のラリーをキックしたロイターの記事というのは↓で、市場安定化を狙った意図的リークのように見える ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/14/us-eurozone-centralbanks-idUSBRE85D1FW20120614 Exclusive: Central banks ready to combat Greek market storm By Stella Dawson and Lesley Wroughton Thu Jun 14, 2012 3:59pm EDT
(Reuters) - Central banks from major economies stand ready to take steps to stabilize financial markets by providing liquidity and preventing a credit squeeze if the outcome of Greek elections on Sunday causes tumultuous trading, G20 officials told Reuters. A senior U.S. official cautioned that the Greek election will not provide "the definitive signal on what happens next" in the euro zone debt crisis. But if severe market strains emerge after an unusual confluence of three elections this weekend - there are important polls in Egypt and France as well - central bankers are on standby to ensure enough cash is flowing through the financial system. G20関係者がロイターに語ったところによれば、日曜日のギリシャ選挙後の悪影響に備え、金融市場に流動性を提供して安定化を図るべく 諸国の中央銀行が準備を進めている
"The central banks are preparing for coordinated action to provide liquidity," said a senior G20 aide familiar with discussions among international financial diplomats. His statement was confirmed by several other G20 officials. Wall Street stocks jumped sharply on the news, with the S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials both up more than 1 percent. The euro added to gains and U.S. government debt prices fell, boosting yields. A move to boost liquidity could mark a dramatic backdrop to the G20 summit of world leaders, who will gather in Los Cabos, Mexico, on Monday and Tuesday where Europe's escalating crisis tops the agenda. このニュースでウオール街の株価は1%以上高騰し国債のイールドが増加して債券価格が下落。この流動性注入はメキシコのLos Cabosで 開催されるG20のサミットで月曜日と火曜日にヨーロッパの危機対応をトップのアジェンダとして議論される。
Leaders will be accompanied by finance ministers playing an advisory role. The ministers, who usually keep a low profile at these summits, have scheduled a working dinner on Monday and lunch on Tuesday. Depending on the severity of the market response, an emergency meeting of ministers from the Group of Seven developed nations could be held on Monday or Tuesday in Los Cabos, with central bankers joining by phone, a second G20 official said. Their first line of defense probably would be a statement that policymakers are ready to take whatever steps are needed to assure market stability. G7の緊急閣僚会議が月曜日化火曜日に行われる可能性もある。諸国の中央銀行総裁は電話で会議に参加する可能性があると別のG20関係者 が語った(ry
ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18436777 Is it game over for Greece? By Laurence Knight BBC News 14 June 2012 Last updated at 07:51 GMT ギリシャはゲーム・オーバーなのか? By Laurence Knight BBCビジネスニュース
●All eyes are on Sunday's election results in Greece. ●Out of cash ●Bluff? Germany and Greece's other lenders are saying: "Vote Syriza and you are out." ●Snowball Withdrawals have reportedly amounted to up to 800m euros a day in recent days. ●Automated bailout If Greece does face a bank run, it will be historically quite rare. ●Collusion? If the bank run does pick up, the Greek authorities could stop it by themselves imposing capital controls. ●Double or quits And what about the ECB? The ECB would face a game of double or quits. Every day that it allowed the bank run to continue, the ECB's exposure to losses from an eventual Greek exit would increase. It's hard to say which way the ECB would jump. The question is, how many Greeks will wait to find out?
Is the election a vote on Greece’s euro membership? 選挙はギリシャのユーロ離脱を問うものか? No. 否
Can Greece be out of the eurozone as early as next week? 来週にもギリシャのユーロ離脱の可能性? Technically yes, but very unlikely. テクニカルにはYes、でもそうなりそうにはない
Will the election remove uncertainty about Greece? 選挙でギリシャの不確定性はなくなるか? No. 否
What is the ideal election result ? from an investor’s perspective? 投資家にとって好ましい結果とは? There is a two-step answer to this question. First, there is no ideal outcome because in the immediate aftermath of the election, any possible coalition (if there is one) could potentially announce that it may seek to renegotiate the MOU…Second, there could be a development later on, in which inability to form a coalition leads to a caretaker government. まず、望ましい理想的な結果は有り得ない。如何なる連立政権も救済条件再交渉を言い出す可能性。連立政権の機能不全が暫定政権に 至る可能性。
Will they pull the plug? 彼らは電源コードを抜くのか? The question whether the troika, ie, the EU, the ECB and the IMF, will really stop payments in case of a Syriza win and Mr Tsipras’ refusal to comply with the commitments made in the MOU is very hard to answer. To be honest, so little can be said on this that it would be pure speculation to suggest any potential outcome. EU、IMF、ECBのトロイカがSyriza勝利、Tsiprasの合意条件拒否の場合に、救援資金の支払いを停止するかは難しい質問。正直にいえば スペキュレーションなしに答えられない。
Can Greece survive once its primary balance is zero? ギリシャのプライマリーバランスがゼロで生存可能か? We see several problems here. The first is that Greece is not as close to a balanced primary budget as many think. 多くの課題がある。ギリシャはプライマリーバランス達成に程遠い
Would Greece be better off without the euro? ユーロ離脱はギリシャに有利なのか? We believe that whatever the election outcome is and no matter if the country remains a euro member or not, Europeans should know that they will likely need to keep paying for Greece. 我々の信じるところでは、選挙結果の如何に依らず、ギリシャのユーロ離脱の有無に関わらずヨーロッパはギリシャ支援を行うであろう
What if there is another post-election deadlock? またもや選挙後のデッドロックが起こることはあり得るのか? The bottom line is that, in the event of an unclear election result and no government formed by 26 June (ie, in the nine days following the election), there would probably be a national unity/technocrat government, supported by a coalition of major parties, rather than another round of new elections. 6月26日までに政権樹立が上手く行かない場合、おそらくは挙国一致テクニカル政権ができて、再再度の選挙にはならないと思う
What’s the medium-term perspective? 中期的見通しは? In the medium term, even if this Sunday does not produce a result which ends up in Greece leaving the euro area, there will be a lot of uncertainty about the country’s euro membership. 中期的にみると今回の選挙で即ユーロ離脱に向かわないとしても、この先ユーロに留まれるのかには多くの不確定性
We know very little about the likely outcome of this Sunday’s election in Greece. Opinion polls show conflicting results, and can they be trusted at all? There may well have been even more posturing than usual on the part of all parties, especially Syriza and Nea Dimocratia. Voters appear impressed, but may completely change their mind on election day. The second important conclusion is that, on Monday morning, we will likely still know very little. Even in the rather unlikely event of a straightforward election result, ie, a clear majority for one of the contenders, we would not know what this means for renegotiation of the MOU, which all parties have now announced. There might be even more fog, instead of less, next week. Lastly, if this election produces an unclear result (which we expect), ends up in some kind of coalition, potentially a technocrat government (which we find likely), but does not produce a Greek exit from the euro area (which is our core scenario), this would not necessarily remove uncertainty around Greece. If anything can be predicted ahead of this election with a reasonable degree of confidence, it is that the Greek tragedy is most likely set to continue. ギリシャの世論調査は矛盾した結果を示していて信用できるか疑問。ギリシャの政党はNDやSyrizaが常にもまして見せかけだけに専念して いるかもしれない。有権者は投票日の当日に心変わりするかもしれない。だから第一の結論というのは、不確定性が大変多いということ。 第二に言えることは選挙後の月曜日の朝になっても、たとえ単一の党の明確な多数支配があったとしても、それが何を意味するかは不明で、 救済条件再交渉などの可能性がある。来週になって、今以上に事態が五里霧中ということはあり得る。最後に言えることは選挙結果が不明瞭 なもので連立政権、場合によってはテクノクラート政権が出来(我々の予想ではあり得る)ユーロ離脱は阻止されるとしても(我々の予想) それで不確定性が消えることにはならない。確実な予想というのはギリシャ悲劇のgdgdが継続するであろうということのみ。
The fear could become reality if Syriza lures enough disaffected voters like Ms. Bakirtzoglu to form a government. The election is too close to call, a race between Syriza and New Democracy, a conservative pro-Europe party that barely edged out Syriza in May. 選挙は接戦で、急進左派の勝つ可能性も ttp://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-BG628_ATHENS_NS_20120614174203.jpg
This weekend's Greek elections are the focus of intense speculation with market participants - and, so we are told, global central bankers - preparing for the worst. I am not quite sure that Greece should be such a focus at this point. I think Kiron Sakar over at The Big Picture is on the right track on this one:
The reality is that Mr Tsipras wont be able to negotiate a better deal (he is delusional) and if he is in power and maintains his current position, Greece will be out of the EZ pretty soon thereafter. If New Democracy wins and can form a coalition, there will be some give from the rest of the EZ, but the Greeks will never deliver, which suggests to me that they will be forced to exit, but a little bit later.
That sounds about right; Greece is pretty much a lost cause at this point, regardless of this weekend's outcome. And worrying about contagion from Greece is just a little too late. The story is now Spain, whose ten-year yields brushed up against 7% today. And Italy, who sold three-year debt at 5.3% and ten-year yields above 6%. And increasingly you hear France as well. This has gone way beyond Greece at this point.
Meanwhile, the ECB remains on the sidelines, reportedly waiting for European fiscal policymakers to make the next step. According to Nouriel Roubini from his frequent emails:
If EU leaders could formulate, and demonstrate commitment toward, a clear plan to achieve a full fiscal, banking and political union that would also involve debt mutualization, the ECB would be willing to take appropriate policy actions to promote this integration and provide a bridge toward a broader union. A successful strategy would entail less front-loaded fiscal austerity and structural reforms; a growth compact that is substantial and not just cosmetic; a full banking union, starting with EZ-wide deposit insurance; and fiscal union and debt mutualization in the EZ.
Well, that's pretty much asking for heaven and earth, isn't it? I don't see how the Europeans are going to pull that together before their summer vacation. And I can't see that France lowering the retirement age to 60 is going to help - it won't exactly help ease German fears that a fiscal union will be little more than a mechanism for Germany to fund the rest of Europe. And regardless of the French move, Germany remains something of a stick in the mud. From German Chancellor Angela Merkel, via the FT: In a restatement of the limits to German action in tackling the debt crisis, she reeled off a list of unacceptable demands from other countries ? including the US and UK ? for “big bang” solutions to solve the crisis.
They included jointly guaranteed eurozone bonds, which she described as “counter-productive” and illegal under the German constitution, as well as a publicly financed European bank deposit insurance scheme, and France’s new call for a “financial stability package”. Merkel is right about one thing:“Europe has set out to complete economic and monetary union,” she said. “Here we are certainly in a race with the markets.”I hope she does have a workable scheme up her sleeve, because as it looks right now, she is in a race she can't win.
ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303822204577466541312448940.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_carousel_3 What's at Stake in the Greek Vote Updated June 14, 2012, 7:07 p.m. ET If a Greek exit from the euro zone looks close to certain after Sunday's election, we will see a full-fledged bank run. By NICHOLAS ECONOMIDES, YANNIS IOANNIDES, EMMANUEL PETRAKIS, CHRISTOPHER PISSARIDES AND THANASIS STENGOS 日曜日のギリシャの選挙に賭かっているもの 選挙後に、もしギリシャのユーロ離脱が近づくとみなされれば、銀行取り付け騒ぎが起こるだろう WSJ 14日
This Sunday Greeks go to the polls confused, fearful and experiencing a frightening deterioration of their standard of living. The country's voters now face a crucial dilemma that will determine the future of Greece for generations: Stay in the euro or commit fiscal suicide with a return to the drachma. 日曜日のギリシャの選挙にあたって、有権者は混乱し、怖れ、生活の質の大きな低下を経験してきた。ギリシャはユーロ離脱か否かという 世代に一度の国の進路選択に際している
At first glance, there is an easy answer to the dilemma: Stay in the euro?the preference of about 80% of Greeks, according to opinion polls. Of its own initiative and per the commitments in its EU-IMF debt agreement, Greece has undergone severe austerity for more than two years. It has been in recession for five years, while managing to dramatically reduce its primary deficit to 5% in 2010 from 10.4% in 2009. ギリシャ国民の80%はユーロ圏に留まることを望んでいるので選択は一見簡単なように見える。EUとIMFの救済合意に応じてギリシャは厳しい 緊縮財政政策を取ってきたので財政赤字は2009年のGDP比10.4%から2010年には5%にまで減少した。
Although Greece has lost competitiveness in terms of unit-labor costs since the first quarter of 1999?as have all euro-zone countries except for Germany and Austria?Greece has adopted significant wage and salary cuts. In the past two years the country has written off close to one-third of its debt and now has very low interest rates on its remaining debt. Its future success depends on the implementation of drastic reductions in public spending, more efficient tax-collection, and productivity improvements. ギリシャは1999年に国際的な賃金の競合性を失ったが、(緊縮財政政策のもとで)賃金の大幅カットを実現した。過去2年にギリシャの負債 の3分の1近くが償却さ、今に残る負債の金利は大変低い。ギリシャの将来の成功の可能性は政府の公的支出をドラスティックに減らす事が 出来るかどうか、より効率的な税金徴収が出来るか、生産性をあげることが出来るか、にかかっている。
But three key forces work against Greece remaining in the euro. First, Greek voters have not been well-informed. While they feel their current suffering very acutely, they do not know or understand the full consequences to themselves of leaving the euro zone. Populist politicians minimize these terrible consequences. しかしながら、ギリシャがユーロに留まることに逆らう勢力がある。まず第一に有権者は(ユーロ離脱の)情報をよく知らされていない。 有権者は現在の経済的苦境にあえいでいるが、それでもユーロ離脱の場合に起きることの全体を理解していない。ポピュリストの政治屋 は、その無茶苦茶な悪影響を最小化して話している。
Second, some Greek political parties argue that the consequences of Greece leaving the euro zone would be more severe for the EU than for Greece. They propose a game of "chicken" with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and are threatening to scrap the last government's agreement with its lenders. If these parties do well on Sunday and those threats become a reality, it is hard to see what would prevent Greece's almost immediate exit from the euro zone. 第二に、一部のギリシャの政党はギリシャがユーロを離脱する場合の痛みは、ギリシャの受けるものよりもEUの受けるもののほうが大きい と話していて、メルケル首相との「チキンゲーム」を正当化する。これらの政党が日曜日の選挙で支持されれば、そしてこれら政党の主張 がEUと対立すればギリシャのユーロ離脱の危険は高まる。(後略) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>First, Greek voters have not been well-informed. >>まず第一に有権者は(ユーロ離脱の)情報をよく知らされていない。
Supposedly expressing Berlin’s neo-liberal, monetarist position, the paper admonished Greeks to “resist the demagoguery of Alexis Tsipras and Syriza.” “Only with the parties that accept the terms of international creditors will your country be able to remain in the euro,” the paper declared. This unacceptable intervention of the German newspaper was vastly criticized by the Greek political world. Most parties have published announcements strongly opposing foreign intervention attempts in the election. ・・・ The article which was introduced in a very warm way, “Dear Greek men and women,” clearly aimed at pushing Greeks into voting in a way that would further Germany’s financial interest.
Mr Tsipras is not Papandreou’s equal as the inventor and controller of a vote-winning, patronage-distributing party machine. Partly, this is because he consciously dissociates himself from the corrupt political practices that dragged Greece into the mire. But he has yet to show that he can hold Syriza together for the long term. The party contains a mishmash of groups ranging from leftwing socialists and ecologists to Trotskyists, Maoists and Castroites ? “a cemetery of dead ideas”, says Prof Veremis.
It isn't clear what would happen to them if a future president opted to reverse the policy. "There is a political and legal risk that what Obama giveth, Romney will taketh," said Stephen Yale-Loehr, immigration professor at Cornell University. Unlike the Dream Act, those affected would not be on a path to citizenship, and they would have to renew their new status every two years. But Dream Act backers concede there is little chance any immigration legislation will pass this year.
* Restarts would be first after Fukushima disaster 福島原発以降の最初の原子炉の再稼働 * Japan's policy to reduce nulcear dependence intact-trade min 日本政府は脱原子力依存の政策を掲げる * Nuclear safety considerably enhanced after Fukushima-trade min 原子力安全規制には(制度的な)改善が図られた By Linda Sieg and Kiyoshi Takenaka
"I imagine there will be a fair number of (reactor) restarts by next year. The government under Noda is surprisingly eager," said Jeffrey Kingston, director of Asian studies at Temple University's Japan campus. 日本のテンプル大学のアジア研究部長であるJeffrey Kingstonは「来年には、かなりの数の原発が再稼働していると思う。野田政権は 大変積極的だ」と述べた。
New Democracy and SYRIZA appear to get almost the same votes, so that no one is sure about the final tally . Moreover, undecided rates have hit record high percentages. According to companies undertaking secret polls, about 15% of the voters have not decided yet who to vote for this Sunday.
BEIJING--The euro is still a great success so far and the currency won't collapse even if Greece exits the euro zone, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Mundell said Saturday. There is a 25% chance of Greece leaving, Mr. Mundell, known as the father of the euro, told reporters on the sidelines of a forum in Beijing.
Nayef's most likely successor as crown prince is the pragmatic Prince Salman, 76, a brother of King Abdullah who was made defence minister in November after more than five decades as Riyadh governor, analysts and diplomats in the kingdom said. Nayef's elevation to crown prince after the death of his brother Sultan last year had alarmed moderates and liberals who feared he would stop reforms set in train by his brother Abdullah if he became king.
A source close to the royal family said Nayef had died suddenly in Geneva after receiving treatment for a knee complaint. He was thought to be 78. His death was not expected to trigger any major changes to the kingdom's energy policy or to key relationships with the United States and other allies.
(Reuters) - With President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney delivering dueling visions for the U.S. economy in speeches on Thursday, a majority of independents said that Obama's policies have made it harder for Americans to gain employment, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed on Friday. Fifty-two percent of independents said they agreed with the idea that the president has not helped create more jobs in America, an argument central to Romney's campaign.
Obama appears to have trouble convincing some members of his own party that his administration has been good for jobs: 29 percent of Democrats said they agreed with the claim that he has not been a job creator. With the unemployment rate at 8.1 percent, the Obama campaign maintains that 4.2 million private-sector jobs have been created since he entered office in January 2009, although roughly as many have been lost.
民主党支持者の29%もオバマ政権の新規雇用創出を不十分としている。
"I think the thing that Obama's team is going to be worried about is the number of independents who agree that the policies the president has put in place make it harder to create jobs," said Ipsos pollster Chris Jackson. "The key conversation is convincing them that the things he has done have helped the economy or not certainly made things worse."
ttp://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es2038432 System-Wide Emissions Implications of Increased Wind Power Penetration Lauren Valentino†‡, Viviana Valenzuela†§, Audun Botterud*†, Zhi Zhou†, and Guenter Conzelmann† † Decision and Information Sciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 S. Cass Avenue, Argonne, Illinois 60439, United States ‡ University of Illinois, Champaign/Urbana, Illinois, United States § Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States Environ. Sci. Technol., 2012, 46 (7), pp 4200?4206 DOI: 10.1021/es2038432
Argonne National Laboratory, under the stewardship of the Department of Energy, just released a study that found wind energy does not reduce carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation as much as expected due to the need to ramp up fossil fuel plants when the wind is not blowing. It takes more energy and thus more carbon dioxide emissions to ramp a coal plant up and down than if the same coal plant is operated at a continuous, efficient base-load level. This is not a new finding. A study by Bentek Energy[i] identified this phenomenon about 2 years ago, and the findings are summarized by IER here.[ii] The difference in the studies is that Argonne evaluated Illinois electricity market data and Bentek evaluated the analogous situation in Colorado and Texas. But, the findings are essentially the same.
Because wind is an intermittent technology, wind turbines generate power only when the wind is blowing, and that means electric grids will need backup generators to provide base-load power during off-wind periods. Those back-up generators are typically fossil fuel plants that should be run continuously as they were designed to provide base-load power. When they are ramped up and down, conventional plants are being used inefficiently, consuming more fuel and releasing more emissions in the process, just as a car does in stop-and-go traffic. If they are ramped up and down frequently, the net emissions reduction from using wind power is lowered by the increased fuel use and the associated emissions from cycling fossil plants back up. According to one of the Argonne researchers, “A certain percentage of the energy goes into just heating up the boilers again.”[viii]
Bentek Energy also found this to be the case in its study of the issue using electricity data for Colorado and Texas. The Bentek and Argonne studies show that the amount of emissions reductions from increased wind power generation is largely dependent on the type of power plants in the system. For example, coal plants use more fuel and emit more emissions when they are cycled than natural gas plants because they were designed to operate continuously at base-load.
Argonne’s suggested answer to the dilemma caused by forcing more expensive and intermittent renewable energy sources into the grid is to spend more money on the development of storage batteries to store electricity when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine. An observant taxpayer or policymaker reviewing the facts might conclude that, rather than continuing to compound government spending and increase consumer costs for energy through government subsidies and mandates, it is government policies which keep causing problems in the first place. If that is the case, the best remedy would be to avoid doing the harm in the first place.
ttp://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/fearing-energy-crisis-japan-restart-2-nuclear-reactors Fearing energy crisis, Japan to restart 2 nuclear reactors Linda Sieg and Kiyoshi Takenaka | The Christian Science Monitor | Jun 16, 2012 エネルギー危機を恐れて日本政府は2基の原発を再開させる --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *大飯原発再稼働の報道は海外メディアでも割合多くて、リベラル系の反原発メディアは「野田首相のやり方に日本国民は怨嗟の声」とい った調子の論調、通常のビジネスメディアは「やはり30%を占めていた原発をゼロにすることは日本政府でも無理か」という調子の冷めた 見方。
>>627 There are a number of questions about what happens after the election. Following the move to dissolve parliament, the military council said it will announce a 100-person assembly to draw up a new constitution.
In the meantime, though, the military council also said it is drawing up an interim constitution that will lay out the powers of the new president -- a move not expected until after the elections.
That's a result that sits uncomfortable with many of Egypt's 50 million eligible voters. The Muslim Brotherhood called for a referendum, saying the dissolution of parliament a dangerous step taken by the military. "We are calling for a referendum again on the dissolving of parliament and see it as the logical thing to do especially after 30 million people went to the polls the first time and the country spent over 3 billion Egyptian pounds in a transparent electoral process," said Mahmoud Ghozlan, spokesman for the Brotherhood. ttp://edition.cnn.com/2012/06/17/world/meast/egypt-election/index.html Questions swirl over intentions of Egypt's interim military rulers following runoff By the CNN Wire Staff June 17, 2012 -- Updated 0459 GMT (1259 HKT)
China’s dairy industry has been hit by another tainted milk scandal that has shaken public confidence in locally produced products, after Yili, the mainland’s largest producer by revenues, announced it had recalled baby formula tainted with mercury.
Yili issued a statement late on Thursday saying that, though China has no official government standards for safe levels of mercury in milk powder, it was advised by the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, which is responsible for food safety, that some of its formula products had an “unusual level” of mercury.
The company recalled infant formula in the Quan You line produced between last November and May this year “since it is our responsibility to prevent risks effectively”. Other Yili products were not affected, the statement said.
“Those foreign brands, no matter how expensive, will sell well,” one user wrote on Sina Weibo, highlighting the fact that foreign brands are perceived as the safest in this industry “Ah, milk poisoning again and again. I feel too tired to accuse them,” wrote another, while a third asked: “Which milk can we drink then?” 中国のツイッターでは「外国製ミルクが、如何に高価であろうが、良く売れることだろう」などの書き込みが・・・
Citigroup Inc. said even under a New Democracy-led government, Greece’s problems are so challenging that there’s a 50 to 75 percent chance it will get pushed out of the euro in the next year or two. That would happen sooner under a Syriza- led government. シティ・グループの予想では、たとえNDが選挙で勝利しても、今後1−2年でユーロ離脱の可能性は50−75%
Aviva said the chances of no exit and Greece “muddling through,” or a managed exit from the common currency, are both about 40 percent. There’s a 20 percent chance of a disorderly exit, it said. Avivaの予想では、「なんとかやりくりしてユーロに留まる」あるいは「秩序あるユーロ離脱」の可能性が各々40%、無秩序離脱が20%
Berenberg Bank’s Holger Schmieding says European officials seem “ready to reward a responsible Greek government,” and the election is “too close to call.” He gives the following scenarios: Berenberg銀行の予測では選挙の結果に依ってユーロ離脱の可能性はおのおの:
-- A New Democracy win and a coalition with Pasok will coax Germany to overlook doubts on Greece and allow Europe to adjust the bailout program and even possibly add to support. In this case, the probability of Greece being in the euro by the end of 2012 is 75 percent, according to Berenberg. 緊縮財政派のNDの勝利の場合、2012年末のユーロ離脱の可能性25%
-- A Syriza win would probably see the EU demand that Tsipras sign up to the bailout plan or be cut off from EU and central bank support. Loss of funds would lead to a bank run and “the threat of utter chaos.” Among Tsipras’s options are relenting and signing up to the Troika terms or standing his ground and causing a “chaotic” exit. He may also negotiate a semi-orderly euro exit. Under a Syriza victory, Berenberg puts the probability of Greece being in the euro by the end of 2012 at 30 percent. 急進左派Syrizaの勝利の場合、2012年末のユーロ離脱の可能性70%
-- An inconclusive election result that requires a third vote will put the probability that Greece is still in the euro at the end of the year at 50 percent or less. 選挙結果がgdgdで、再再度選挙になる場合は、2012年末のユーロ離脱の可能性50%以上
出口調査でもほぼ互角 17.02 The first exit poll is out, and it's far too close to call, with New Democracy ahead of anti-austerity Syriza by just half a percent: New Democracy 27.5pc to 30.5pc Syriza 27pc to 30pc
New Democracy 27.5 ? 30.5 Syriza 27 ? 30 Pasok 10 ? 12 Independent Greeks 6 ? 7.5 Communist Party 5 ? 6 Golden Dawn 6 ? 7.5 Democratic Left 5.5 ? 6.5
UPDATE: 5月6日の選挙の時には Compare these results with those of the inconclusive May 6 election: New Democracy ? 19 percent or 108 seats Syriza ? 17 percent or 52 seats Pasok ? 13 percent or 41 seats 僅かの差でもNDがリードを保てるなら第一党特権のボーナス50議席があるので・・
UPDATE: The latest polls from Greece, based on a sample of 10,000 voters and broadcast on state-run NET TV, show New Democracy and Pasok would have a majority of 159 seats in Greece’s 300-seat Parliament: New Democracy ? 28.6-30 percent Syriza ?27.5-28.4 percent Pasok ? 11-12.4 percent
Greece’s New Democracy party opened up a narrow lead in Greek elections today, receiving between 28.6 percent and 30 percent of the vote, final figures from an exit poll forecast. Anti-bailout party Syriza got between 27.5 percent and 28.4 percent, according to the exit poll, broadcast on state-run television NET. Socialist Pasok is placing third with between 11 percent to 12.4 percent, according to the poll, which is based on the reading from a full sample of 10,000 voter. 第二の出口調査によれば、NDは28.6−30.0%を獲得し、Syrizaの27.5−28.4%を僅かにリードしている。
The results, if confirmed, may give Pasok and New Democracy enough support for them to team up to form a government with a majority of 159 seats in the 300-seat Greek parliament. この数字通りの結果となるのであれば、NDとPasokの連立政権が300議席中の159議席を得て過半数を制することになる。この調査結果は ギリシャ国営TVが報道した。
マーケットウオッチも同じ報道 ttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/pro-bailout-parties-lead-in-greek-election-polls-2012-06-17?link=MW_home_latest_news The updated exit polls have New Democracy winning between 28.6% and 30% of the vote, giving it 127 seats in the 300-seat Parliament. The socialist PASOK party was projected in third with 32 seats. The left-wing Syriza party is projected to get 72 seats. The party receiving the largest number of votes receives an additional 50 seats in the 300-seat Greek parliament, giving it an edge in forming a coalition government.
For court watchers, the drama is becoming unbearable. With just two Mondays left on the U.S. Supreme Court’s calendar to announce opinions -- June 18 and 25 -- the five most important cases of the term all remain undecided. The club of Supreme Court devotees (OK, junkies) likes to think of the first Monday in October as opening day, and the last Monday in June as game seven of the World Series. But many years, the series is a dud. Most of the cases are technical and unexciting, they enter the casebooks with little fanfare, and the public barely notices. This year will be the exception that proves the rule. 今週のアメリカ最高裁の予定は、重要な判断の示されるケースが目白押し。
The big kahuna, of course, is President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act. Like it or not, this will be the most significant political case decided since Bush v. Gore in 2000. The court won’t decide who wins the election, but it will have a tremendous effect on the race. By agreeing to hear the case, the court guaranteed that it would be ruling on the constitutionality of Obama’s most important policy achievement the summer before he is up for re-election. 第一の注目は、オバマ医療保険改革で保険の購入を義務付けたことが違憲であるかどうかの判断。この結果は場合によっては大統領選に影響。
The second huge case, reviewing whether Arizona’s immigration law impinges on the federal government’s authority to make immigration policy, is equally political. The Obama administration sought to depoliticize the case by declining to argue that Arizona’s stop-and-question policy (sometimes called “papers, please”) would surely discriminate on the basis of race. 第二の注目はアリゾナ州法の不法移民の扱いに関するものが連邦政府の移民政策との関連でどう判断されるのかというもの。
But everyone can still see that the case effectively turns on whether the Republican stalwart state of Arizona is right on tougher immigration enforcement or whether the more liberal Obama administration is. (Never mind that the Obama administration has deported illegal immigrants at a vastly higher rate than that of his predecessor, the Republican George W. Bush.) This decision, too, will have significant political impact, especially if Mitt Romney decides he can’t win Latino voters and therefore turns to immigration in order to encourage Republican turnout. この判断は不法移民に対してタフなアリゾナ州法を採るか、よりリベラルなオバマ政権の移民政策を採るかという政治的インパクトが。
Health care and immigration will probably overshadow the Supreme Court’s return to campaign finance, but here, too, the political consequences are major. The court will have to decide whether a Montana law essentially barring corporate campaign spending violates its holding in Citizens United of 2010, the case that gave us the Super PACs. If the court strikes down the century-old law, then it’s official: the Super PACs are here to stay and the justices will have embraced their own legacy as the ones who changed forever the rules of campaign finance in America. 第三の注目は民間企業の政治献金規制に関するモンタナ州法の規制と連邦政府の規制が異なることに対するもので、Super PACsと呼ばれる 民間の第三者政治資金の行動を広く公認することになるかが問題。
This summer, the court may have overplayed its hand. It will be too much in the sun. And that way, as Hamlet noted, lies nothing but trouble.
とりあえずギリシャ発のブラック・マンデーは回避されそうなふいんき(?)のようだけれど、安心感が長続きするのかというのは 紙の味噌汁で・・・ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/06/17/after-greece-the-pain-in-spain-remains/?mod=WSJBlog June 17, 2012, 3:56 PM After Greece, the Pain in Spain Remains MARKETBEAT By Matt Phillips ギリシャの問題が去ってもスペイン(の銀行危機)の問題は残る WSJ市場記者ブログ
No matter what the electoral outcome in Greece, sophisticates know the markets have already moved on to fix their fire on the next gorilla in the Euro group: Spain. The euro zone’s fourth-large economy actually has a much better debt-to-GDP ratio than the other nations swept up in the maelstrom of the crisis. But the condition of its economy and its banks seems are reason for serious concern. Here are some key numbers to know about Spain, culled from a range of recent research reports. ギリシャがどうなろうともユーロにとっての次の火の手の上がるゴリラはスペイン。スペイン経済で気がかりであることは:
Total gross debt issued by central government: 606 billion euros (BNP Paribas) 中央政府負債=6,060億ユーロ General Government Debt to GDP ratio 2011: 67.3% (S&P) GDP負債比率=67.3%(2011年) General Government Debt to GDP ratio start of 2012: 68.5%, doubling from pre-crisis levels. (IMF) 2012年は68.5%で悪化中 Forecasts for General Government Debt to GDP Ratio at end of 2012: 78% (S&P) S&P予測は2012年末で78% Central Government Funding Needs, as of June 8: 37 billion euros, roughly 40%, doesn’t include regional government needs. (BNP Paribas) 中央政府の資金需要は6月8日で370億ユーロ(地方政府需要を含まず) Forecast for GDP Growth for 2012: -1.5% (S&P) GDP成長予測(2012年)=−1.5%(S&P) Unemployment, March 2012: 24.1% 3月の失業率=24.1% Yield on 10-year Note: 6.869%. (Tradeweb) 10年国債イールド=6.869%
Miserable fact #1: “S&P expects a further 25% drop in Spain’s housing price, which will add more pressure on the country’s banking system and fiscal budget.” (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) Amount of Spanish bank loans to construction and real estate sector: 400 billion euros, roughly 40% of GDP (RBS) Miserable fact #2: “The number of Spaniards living abroad has increased by 20% over the past three years, a record high since the ’60s.” (RBS)
Pasok was set to take 12.3 per cent of the vote and 33 seats, and Democratic Left was set to win 6.2 per cent and 17 seats. With a combined total of 178 seats, a three-way, New Democracy-led government would have a comfortable parliamentary majority, but it would be an uneasy formation comprised of politicians with little experience of working together in a coalition.
新たなギリシャ首相になりそうなサマラス党首 “The Greek people voted today to stay on a European course and remain in the eurozone,” Mr Samaras said. “There will be no more adventures; Greece’s place in Europe will not be put in doubt, the sacrifices of the Greek people will bear fruit.” Mr Samaras arouses a certain mistrust among other European leaders, partly because of his reluctance over the past two years to give explicit support to the rescue plan. But he is also identified in Europe, together with other New Democracy and Pasok politicians, as responsible for the economic mismanagement and patronage system that brought Greece to its knees.
この選挙で極右や共産党は・・ The interior ministry’s forecasts showed the rightwing Independent Greeks party with 7.6 per cent of the vote and 20 seats, and the neo-fascist Golden Dawn with 6.9 per cent and 18 seats. The hardline Communist party was set to take 4.5 per cent and win 12 seats. 極右のギリシャ独立党=20議席(7.6%)、ネオファシストのGolden Dawnは18議席(6.9%)、ギリシャ共産党は12議席(4.5%)
Like two samurai facing each other in a duel, the Bank of Japan and parts of the Diet, Japan’s parliament, are fighting over how to revive the country’s long-ailing economy. While growth was fast in the first quarter of 2012, this spurt was the result of several one-off factors which are unlikely to lead to a more sustained acceleration. 日本銀行と議会の一部が、昔の侍の決闘のように対峙しているわけだが、日本経済を持続的成長に至らしめるためには、そういう決闘は無益だ。
To get the economy going again, some in Japan’s parliament would like the central bank to loosen its monetary policy even more than it has done so far. The BoJ should add to its existing Y70tn ($890bn) asset-purchasing programme and stretch it in ever more unorthodox directions. The International Monetary Fund has backed this position, arguing that the BoJ should buy long-term government bonds. 議会制力の一部は日銀がマネタリ政策を緩和し、資産購入計画を更に進めるべきとする。IMFはその立場を支持している。
Such calls have so far been ignored by the BoJ, which last week decided to leave its easing programme untouched. This may have been a way for the BoJ to keep its powder dry, were the situation in the eurozone to degenerate and cause financial turmoil. But the BoJ is also worried that bolder action may be seen as a monetisation of the country’s debt. 日銀はその要求を無視してきたがユーロ圏の状況が悪化する事態に備えて、対応手段を温存したいようだ。また日銀は大胆な緩和政策が日本 の負債のマネタイゼーションとみなされることを憂慮するようである。
These worries are misplaced. The BoJ may well be buying about a third of the new issuance of government debt this year. But monetisation only occurs when the central bank decides to cancel the debt, something that the BoJ has no intention of doing. As for the inflationary consequences of quantitative easing, in deflation-plagued Japan a moderate increase in prices can only be a good thing. 日銀のこの憂慮は誤ったもので日銀は今年の新発国債の3分の1を買うことが出来る。しかしマネタイゼーションというのは中央銀行が負債を キャンセルしようと意思決定した時に起きる。日銀がそういうことをする意志があるとは思えない。量的緩和のインフレへの影響については、 デフレ症候群に悩む日本経済にとって、穏やかな物価上昇は良いことでしか無い。
Where the BoJ is right, however, is in its belief that monetary policy is no panacea for Japan’s woes. In fact, it has become politicians’ favourite excuse. Calling in the BoJ governor to parliament to explain his inaction (it has happened 20 times this year) is much easier than passing necessary but politically difficult reforms. 日銀はしかし、マネタリ政策が日本経済の諸問題の万能薬ではない、というのは正しい。政治家が日銀を非難して言い訳にするというのはい つものことである。
The BoJ should not dig its heels in and avoid the further monetary loosening that is beneficial to the economy. But if politicians want to prompt the BoJ to act, showing commitment to reform is more helpful than a series of pep-talks. 日銀はマネタリ緩和政策(此れは経済にとって有益)を避けむとする余り墓穴を掘るような事は止めるべきで、政治家は日銀について語るだけ ではなく、改革へのコミットメントを示すべきだ。
Europe’s “Lehman moment” has been averted, at least temporarily. ヨーロッパの「リーマンショック」の発動は、少なくとも一時的には、避けることが出来た。
Investors are cautiously optimistic following this weekend’s Greek elections after the pro-bailout party eked out a victory. The potential for a Greek exit from the euro zone doesn’t appear imminent for now. U.S. stock futures are rising, the euro is back above $1.27 and Asian markets are advancing Sunday night. 投資家は、慎重ながらも楽観的になって、ギリシャのユーロ離脱の可能性は今のところは切迫していない。米国株式先物は上昇、ユーロ の対ドル相場は$1.27を回復、アジア市場は上昇している。
“For the markets, this was the best of all words,” says Keith Springer, president of Springer Financial Advisors in Sacramento, Calif. Over the short term, he called it the “best-case scenario.” Still, one election doesn’t immediately solve Greece’s problems. Major sticking points remain, including the country’s tremendous debt burden and stubbornly high unemployment. Worries about a renegotiation of Greece’s austerity plan with its international lenders also could cause more uncertainty in financial markets. サクラメントの投資顧問会社、Springer Financial Advisors のKeith Springerは「此れは投資家にとって最善の結果」という。短期的に 見て「ベスト・ケース・シナリオだ」という。しかしこの選挙はギリシャのもつ諸問題を即時に解決しない。多くの問題は残されていて、 巨額負債や高い失業率などが残る。ギリシャの緊縮財政政策の再交渉についての心配は金融市場にとって不確定性を意味する。
“Greece remains corrupt, over-indebted, and uncompetitive,” said Martin Leclerc, portfolio manager at Barrack Yard Advisors, which oversees about $700 million in assets. “There’s little prospect out of its de facto bankruptcy unless the people of Greece demand and receive real reforms. That is unlikely to happen in the intermediate term.” Barrack Yard Advisorsのポートフォリオ・マネージャーであるMartin Leclercは「ギリシャは相変わらず腐敗した債務超過の競争力のない 国だ」という。「ギリシャ国民が真の改革を要求しない限り実際上の破綻をしているギリシャに改善の望みはない。そういうことは中期的に 起こりそうにない」
Looking past Greece, much broader worries lie within larger, struggling nations, such as Spain and Italy. Borrowing costs in these countries have been rising rapidly, putting increased pressure on these troubled economies. In a research note published over the weekend, John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Securities, said no matter the outcome of the Greek elections, the proverbial can kicking in Europe is poised to come to an end sooner rather than later. ギリシャを離れてユーロ危機を見るとスペインやイタリアの問題がある。これらの国の国債のイールドは急速に上昇していて、それらの国の 経済に圧迫を与えている。Millennium Wave SecuritiesのJohn Mauldinは顧客向けの報告書で、ギリシャ選挙の結果の如何にかかわらず、相 変わらず同じような煮え切らない態度を続けるヨーロッパは政策の結末に、いずれ直面するという。
From Mauldin: I think the time is rather close. Spain cannot borrow the money it needs to bail out its banks at a rate it can afford and has in effect been shut out of the bond market. Spain is going to need not just a bailout for its banks but also to restructure its debt and/or default on some of it. That is just the math. And when Spain needs that money, the market will get very nervous about Italy. And we mustn’t forget Portugal; it will need debt forgiveness as well. Oh, and Ireland… Change is coming to Europe. One way or another, a new order and a new balance will be forced upon them. Either a fiscal union or break-up. 彼の分析:私が思うに、残された時間は限られている。スペインは自国経済の救済に必要な資金を市場で調達する上で、支払えないような 高い金利に耐えられなくなって、債券市場から締め出される。スペインは銀行救済の資金を必要とするのみならず、負債の再編や一部負債 のデフォルトを必要とする。それは単純な算数だ。スペインが資金を必要とする時に市場はイタリアについてナーバスになる。それにポル トガルのことを忘れるわけには行かない。かの国も債務減免を要する。そしてアイルランドも・・・ヨーロッパには変化が起きて、財政統 合にすすむか、あるいはユーロ分裂に進むか、いずれにせよ新たな秩序、新たなバランスが必要とされる。
Rising Chinese incomes could challenge U.S. consumers and disrupt global supply chains. A review of Shaun Rein's The End of Cheap China: Economic and Cultural Trends That Will Disrupt the World. 上昇する中国の賃金は米国の消費者に挑戦を意味しグローバルなサプライ・チェーンを乱す。安価な中国製品の時代の終わり鴨
Rein can seem overly optimistic at times, although he draws some attention to government corruption and the need to improve the country's health care and education systems. The truth is that China's economy is still largely driven by exports. Consumers save way more than they spend partly because China lacks an adequate social safety net. Chinese policymakers are trying to rebalance the economy, but there's a long road ahead. Nevertheless, Cheap China is an excellent read for anyone interested in the economic prospects of an emerging superpower.
(Reuters) - Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood declared on Monday that its candidate Mohamed Morsy won the country's first free presidential race, beating Hosni Mubarak's last prime minister and ending six decades of rule by presidents plucked from the military. ムスリム同胞団は大統領選挙でMohamed Morsyの勝利を宣言した。
But his victory claim was swiftly challenged by his rival, while shortly before the final result the generals who have run the country since the overthrow of Mubarak issued new rules that made clear real power remains with the army. "Mohamed Morsy is the first popularly elected civilian president of Egypt," the official website of Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party announced. しかし反対派は此れに同意せず軍部が依然として実権を握っている。
But an aide to Shafik, an ex-military man like Mubarak, contested that and said the group was "hijacking the election." "Our counting of the votes has so far showed that we are ahead with 52 percent of the vote but we refuse to break the law and issue any numbers now," said Mahmoud Baraka, the media of Shafik's campaign. 軍部の支持するShafik側はムスリム同胞団が選挙をハイジャックしたとして、広報官のMahmoud Barakaが「我々の集計では我々は投票の52% を上回っている。しかし法を破ることはせず、今は集計数を発表しない」とした。
Egypt's state television reported both claims. The official election committee has yet to make any announcement. エジプト国営TVは両者の主張を報道している。公的な選挙管理委員会の発表はまだなされていない。
Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi has claimed victory over Ahmed Shafiq, Hosni Mubarak's last prime minister, but the military has issued a decree taking most powers away from the president and handing them to itself, reports the Washington Post. The Brotherhood says it does not recognize the military's interim constitution, or the dissolution of parliament last week. Analysts fear the the generals' latest move opens the door to another military dictatorship.
With the decree, "Egypt has completely left the realm of the Arab Spring and entered the realm of military dictatorship," a prominent human rights activist says.
So it appears that the governing coalition in Greece has pulled out a narrow victory ? winning only a minority of votes, but getting a narrow majority in the parliament thanks to the 50-seat bonus New Democracy gets for coming in first. So they will now have the ability to continue pursuing an unworkable policy. Yay! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 同じくMark Grantのコメンタリー、ゼロヘッジから
Let me outline for you the scrub matches. The first is that the apparent winner of the Greek elections, the New Democracy Party, will try to form a colalition with the PASOK Party and this is what everyone is not betting on. The problem is that the PASOK Party has lobbed a grenade into the coalition discussion, announced by Katerina Diamantopoulou that Pasok will not join into a coalition government with the New Democracy Party unless Syriza also joins the coalition. Syriza stated moments ago it would not do this. The question then comes whether ND can form a government (150+ seats) with any of the other remaining parties including neo-nazi New Dawn or the communists. The answer is most likely not,so Greece again, for the moment, is nowhere. Then the New Democracy Party also campaigned on re-doing the terms of the EU bailout which Germany said earlier today would not be happening. The markets may well rally on the headlines but reality will set in soon enough I would think. At the moment, which could change in a Greek heartbeat or the smashing of a plate, Greece is in limbo once again and I would not be betting too heavily or cheering in the marketplacethat everything is resolved; it is clearly not.
Then the next game of chicken is not only will Germany/the EU back up from their position but will they give Greece more money because if they don't the country and the banks more money they both will default. So it is no government in Greece for the moment, playing chicken over the bailout terms, playing chicken over new money for Greece as their economy continues to deteriorate and as they amount they owe now, much less any new money, cannot be paid back under any scenario that anyone can concoct. The headlines may well drive the markets' reaction briefly but "watch out below" will be what takes hold as it must because that assumption is based upon facts and not hype.
各党との連立協議スケジュール(NDのサマラス党首) Samaras’ schedule for the rest of the evening looks like this (London times): 4pm ? Evangelos Venizelos, the leader of Pasok (socialists, 33 seats). 5pm ? Panos Kammenos, leader of Independent Greeks (erstwhile New Democracy members, 20 seats) 6pm (ish) ? Fotis Kouvelis, leader of Demcratic Left (centre-left, 17 seats)
*Pasokのベニゼロス党首はNDとの連立に前向き、早期の政権樹立の必要性を認識 *DemLefのKouvelis党首はサマラスND党首の首相就任を支持しておらず協議成り行きは不明 *サマラス側近は今日中に協議を終えて明日、連立政権発足を狙うが、FT記者によれば、これは野心的すぎかも -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 17:33 Standard & Poor’s has weighed in on the election results, saying there’s no immediate effect on Greece’s credit rating. S&P says the risk of Greece leaving in the eurozone “may have lessened” but still sees a one-in-three chance that it will happen eventually. 格付け機関のS&Pのギリシャ選挙の評価:この選挙はギリシャの格付けに直接影響しないが、ギリシャのユーロ離脱の可能性は減少した かも知れない。しかしS&Pは、依然として3分の1の離脱の可能性があると考える。
選挙後のギリシャについて、WSJ欧州版のレビュー&アウトルック -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303703004577472650011463124.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop REVIEW & OUTLOOK EUROPE Updated June 17, 2012, 7:25 p.m. ET A Greek Reprieve (ギリシャへの執行猶予) The Germans might have preferred a victory by the left in Athens.
The tragedy of Greece, and much of the rest of Europe, is that it overborrowed during the euro's first decade to finance a higher standard of living than it could afford. Now the debtors have to adjust. ギリシャの抱える問題は、そして此れは他のユーロ周辺国についても同じなのだが、ユーロ導入後の10年間に抱え込んだ過剰な負債で、 それは実際に支えることの出来る水準以上の生活の質をファイナンスするものであった。今や債務者は調整が必要だ。
The best way to do so is with supply-side reforms in taxes, pensions and labor markets that will lure investment and make Europe's economies more competitive. They need austerity for government but growth for the private economy. Without that, the Greek reprieve will be merely another opportunity lost. 調整のための最善の手法というのは、サプライサイドの改革で、税制、年金、労働市場の改革を進め投資を勧誘して経済をより競合力の あるものとすることである。そのために公共部門の支出削減(緊縮財政)とともに民間部門の成長促進政策が必要だ。そうした対処なし には、今回ギリシャに与えられた執行猶予は、またひとつの機会喪失になるだろう。
英国の大衆紙、ディリーメールの記事 ---------------------------------------- ttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2160715/Obamas-Harvard-law-professor-Roberto-Unger-says-defeated-2012.html Obama's Harvard law professor says 'President MUST be defeated in 2012' (even though he's the man Barack used to have on speed dial) オバマの学んだハーバード大学の法学教授「大統領は2012年(の再選)に敗退すべき」 Roberto Unger, 65, is respected author and Brazilian politician Roberto Unger教授、65歳の発言 Taught Obama about 'reinventing democracy' at Harvard Law School オバマに大学で民主主義の再発見について講義 Professor was an adviser during the 2008 election campaign 教授は2008年大統領選のオバマのアドバイザー By DAILY MAIL REPORTER PUBLISHED: 22:17 GMT, 17 June 2012 | UPDATED: 12:06 GMT, 18 June 2012
ttp://www.technologyreview.com/featured-story/428145/the-great-german-energy-experiment/ The Great German Energy Experiment Germany has decided to pursue ambitious greenhouse-gas reductions?while closing down its nuclear plants. Can a heavily industrialized country power its economy with wind turbines and solar panels? DAVID TALBOT July/August 2012 ドイツの脱原発というエネルギー大実験 DAVID TALBOT テクノロジーレビュー
*ドイツの脱原発政策の現状評論
コスト Estimates of what the transition will cost vary widely, depending in part on how fast new technology can be introduced and its price lowered. Various economic think tanks predict that the country will spend somewhere between $125 billion and $250 billion on infrastructure expansion and subsidies in the next eight years?between 3.5 and 7 percent of Germany's 2011 GDP. The long-term costs, including the expense of decommissioning nuclear power plants, will be far higher.
Germany has already incurred significant costs. Each monthly electric bill carries a renewable-energy surcharge of about 15 percent (heavy industry is exempt). Wholesale electricity prices have jumped approximately 10 percent since the eight nuclear plants were shut. The German grid is strained as never before. And?ironically, given the Energiewende's goal of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions?the decision to close the nuclear plants has increased reliance on coal-fired power plants.
風力発電の現状 Of course, all this just gets the power to the beach. The electricity needs to traverse Germany to reach the major industrial centers in the country's south. Some 3,800 kilometers of new power lines are needed, but only around 200 have been built, with reluctant landowners and regional politicians stalling progress and creating choke points. The delays and the novel technologies make the German offshore wind program a huge gamble all by itself. "Nobody really knows what the Energiewende will cost," says Karen Pittel, an energy economist at the University of Munich. "But especially those wind farms?they are more or less pilot projects."
The uncertainties don't stop there. Even with current levels of wind power, on windy days grid operators must shut turbines down because there's nowhere to put the power. When a cloud bank rolls over southern Germany on an otherwise sunny day, the output of the region's many photovoltaic panels can drop by hundreds of megawatts; the effect is like hitting the off switch on a moderate -size coal-fired power plant, increasing the threat of blackouts.
風力発電の間欠性を補うための揚水発電 To avoid catastrophe, Germany will have to start deploying storage technologies and load--balancing strategies at far larger scales. The country today has 31 pumped-storage power plants, which force water into uphill reservoirs at night and then use the downhill flow to spin turbines to generate power. Altogether, they can store 38 gigawatt-hours' worth of electricity. That might sound like a lot, but it's less than 90 minutes of peak output from Germany's wind farms.
石炭火力の復活 There is much about the current policy that arguably isn't logical. In the short term at least, the decision to close the nuclear plants means that the Energiewende will actually push utilities to rely more heavily on coal. Last year, for example, RWE fired up two long-planned new boilers at an existing facility near the Belgian border that burns the dirtiest fossil fuel of them all: brown lignite coal. Though these boilers are cleaner than the ones they're replacing, the coal plant is the largest of its kind in the world, and it's going full blast these days to keep up with power demand.
"If you close eight nuclear plants, which were carbon-free, overnight, you will increase carbon emissions," Weale says. "One will have to be more reliant on coal than was previously expected. It may be hard to reduce CO2 emissions as quickly as one would like." Decisions made now about what kinds of power plants to install will have repercussions for decades, he says: "You can't make sudden changes from one asset to another."(ry
The government has just published its long-awaited draft energy bill, which would see the UK generate 15 per cent of the country’s energy from renewable sources by 2020, a third of it from wind. But this has not silenced backbench mutterings about the commitment to renewables. 英国政府はエネルギー予算を公表したが、その目標は再生可能エネルギーを2020年に15%に高めるとしている。その3分の1は風力発電に依る。 しかしこの政策には議会内でも疑問が提示されている。
The bill envisages that this will account for a fifth of renewable energy in just eight years. Not only will costs rise through the growing subsidy, but it will also involve the country in huge ancillary expenses, both to graft offshore wind arrays on to the grid and to build standby generation to cope with wind’s intermittency. Seen in this light, tinkering with onshore subsidies is just whistling in the wind. この計画では再生可能エネルギーの五分の一は8年間に達成するとしていて政府補助金が増加するのみならず、巨額の付随的支出をもたらす。 それはオフショアの風力発電機群のみならず送電網の建設、風力発電の間欠性を補完するバックアップ発電施設などのためである。この観点 からオンショア風力発電への政府補助金について(今の議会で妥当性を)云々するのは意味のないことに見える。
But the real problem is the electricity bill itself, which is simply too dirigiste. It involves the government setting output targets for power sources and, inevitably, picking and subsidising winners. This is a mug’s game, particularly in a sector undergoing rapid change. Shale gas, for instance, has dramatically lowered the cost of gas-powered generation in the US, and could cut UK prices in coming years. だが真の問題は電力開発計画そのものにあって、此れはあまりにも経済統制的である。この計画は政府が発電ソースの目標を定め、さらに 必然的結果として補助金の支給先を選定する。此れは失敗に至るやり方である。特に急速な変化の起こる業界においては、なおさらである。 例えばシェールガスはアメリカにおいてガス火力発電のコストをドラマティックに下げた。それはこの先英国のガス火力発電コストを下げる ことがあり得る。
The MPs may be focusing on too narrow a segment of the power market. But they are right to question the sense of entering into long-term subsidy commitments at a time of price uncertainty. Rather than bucking the market, the government should work with it. The answer is to let investors respond to the floor price it has already mandated for carbon, which should be broadened and properly set. The market could then decide which technologies to back. 国会議員たちは余りにも狭い電力市場にフォーカスしているかもしれない。しかし彼らは価格の不確かなものへの、長期の政府補助金に疑問 を呈するという点で正しいといえよう。市場に介入するのではなく政府は市場とともに仕事をすべきである。この問題への回答というのは、 投資家等に価格を決めさせることで、既に炭素排出権価格がそうである。どの(エネルギー供給)技術を支持すべきかは市場が決める事がで きる。
ttp://www.cnbc.com/id/47861795 G20 urges Europe to take "all necessary measures" on crisis Published: Monday, 18 Jun 2012 | 12:45 PM ET Text Size
LOS CABOS, Mexico (Reuters) - World leaders pressed Europe on Monday to do whatever it takes to combat the euro zone's debt crisis after a victory for pro-bailout parties in a Greek vote reduced the chances of a euro breakup but failed to calm financial markets. The world's major industrialized and developing economies are set to urge the euro zone to break the vicious link between its struggling banks and strained state finances, according to a draft communique prepared for the G20 summit and seen by Reuters.
It said Europe would take "all necessary policy measures" to resolve its crisis and said Group of 20 leaders looked forward to the euro zone working closely with a new Greek government to keep it on a reform path and in the currency bloc. ・・・ The G20 leaders are also expected to adopt a Los Cabos Action Plan, pledging to promote economic growth and jobs, investing in infrastructure and promoting trade, while sticking to its pledges to bring down budget deficits. "Strong, sustainable and balanced growth remains the top priority of the G20 as it leads to higher job creation and increases the welfare of people across the world," the draft communique reads, according to the G20 source. "We are committed to adopting all necessary policy measures to strengthen demand, support global growth and restore confidence."
Spec-wise it’s pretty much as anyone could’ve guessed, and not terribly ground-breaking, at least not considering that the target is the almighty Apple iPad: 10.6-inch display, magnesium case, 9.33mm thick, Gorilla Glass. The new tablet is available in two models. Surface for Windows RT (running an Nvidia ARM processor), and Surface for Windows Pro
First, there’s a full multi-touch keyboard built in to the cover (the “Type Cover”). If it works as well as it looked today, then this could be an attractive ? though far from unique ? feature. Keep in mind many (many!) bluetooth keyboards exist for the iPad already. From the department of quirky or inspired department of design (take your pick, preference depending) comes that unusual 22-degree beveled edge. Since Windows 8, powers the Surface Pro, and not just a crippled touch-based operating system, this is a full blown PC. That means you can run Microsoft Office. It also means you can load up any of your Windows software and run this device as your full-time mobile laptop and tablet of choice. Redmond is surely hoping this changes our collective definition of “tablet” computing.
Unlike the iPad, the Surface will ship with a stylus, and features two sensors. When you start using the pen for input, it will stop registering hand gestures. Steve Jobs famously declared that tablets should be designed specifically for the digits of your hand, and eschewed sush a design in favor of iOS, which is designed from the ground-up for touch-based input. The Microsoft Surface signals both Microsoft’s attempts to copy Apple ? 10-inch tablet, with hardware and software designed under one roof ? but also to follow its own unique vision when it comes to re-inventing the mobile PC. The Surface Pro (which runs Windows RT and uses an Intel chip) is perhaps the best realization of a hybdrid tablet/laptop that we’ve yet seen, trumping the previous closest example, the Asus Transformer Prime, in several signficant ways.
The new Microsoft Surface will feature a 10.6-inch wide display with Gorilla Glass, its own stand, a full-size USB port, dual Wi-Fi antennae, a multitouch keyboard, a trackpad ? and yet is only about a half-inch thick, says Windows chief Steven Sinofsky. Models will come with either 64 gigabytes or 128 GB of storage. "With Windows 1.0, we needed the mouse to complete the experience," said Ballmer. "We wanted to give Windows 8 it's own hardware innovation. Something new, different, a whole new family of computing devices from Microsoft." ttp://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/story/2012-06-18/microsoft-surface-tablet/55676790/1
ttp://www.zdnet.com/blog/open-source/microflops-microsoft-surface-rt-and-8-tablets/11238 In the Los Angles-based event, Steve Ballmer announced Microsoft is selling a Windows RT and Windows 8 tablets, the re-branded Microsoft Surface. It’s a 10.6-inch?about an inch bigger than an iPad?tablet with a keyboard and touchpad on it’s built-in cover. That sounds cool, but I really wonder just how sturdy it can be in real life. In addition, I’ve seen hybrid laptop and tablet before and I’m still waiting for one that actually delivers. One thing I will note to its credit is that Microsoft promises that it will work with both a stylus, for fine detail work, and with your finger when you’re trying to use the Windows 8 klutzy Metro’s interface.
The Windows 8 model, which runs a 3rd generation Core i5 (Ivy Bridge) is a cross between an ultrabook and a tablet. The Windows RT model uses, of course, an ARM processor. For a display, Microsoft is offering something it calls ClearType HD. This is meant, of course, to compete with Apple’s Retina Display. The RT tablet will come with 32 to 64GBs of storage, while the Windows 8 version will come in 64 and 128GB models. Battery life? We don’t have a clue yet. Microsoft fans say the the new Surface units are like a combination MacBook Air and iPad. I say it’s Microsoft desperately trying to pull attention away from Apple’s products. Lots of luck with that guys.
I also must note that in two ways this was a very typical Microsoft vaporware announcement: promise the world but don’t mention when it will be available or what it will cost. How vapor is it? During the demo to the hand-picked press and employee audience, the demo tablet crashed when Steven Sinofsky, president of the Windows division tried to run a Netflix application.
While Microsoft refused to announce any pricing, the company did say it would be competitive with comparable ARM tab/Intel Ultrabook-class PC. That would put the RT device at about $500 and the Ultrabook at around $900. This make me wonder what Microsoft’s original equipment manufacturer (OEM) partners are going to think about this? If I were Dell, HP, et. al., I wouldn’t be one bit happy. As for Apple and the Android vendors, I wouldn’t be in the least bit worried.
“Apple’s iPad shows few signs of slowing down,” Tom Mainelli, IDC’s research director of mobile connected devices, said in the report. “If Apple launches a sub-$300, 7-inch product into the market later this year as rumored, we expect the company’s grip on this market to become even stronger.”
*「ウオール街を占拠せよ」運動の失敗についてのカンファレンスの模様を伝える。主催者の中心人物の一人によれば失敗の原因は 「オバマ政権のサポートが不足で、我々の運動を見殺しにした」ことである。 Jones himself caused a stir recently for saying the left feels “crushed” by Obama and is “pissed off.” He revived that criticism Monday, noting that “this administration has deported more people than George W. Bush.”
*しかし、過激な階級闘争のイデオロギーに依る運動は、ウイスコンシン州の公共労組の極端な反知事政治運動と同じで大衆の支持 を得られず、多くの有権者は余りに過激な運動には同調せず、身を引いてしまう。それは19世紀の階級闘争や初期の米国の公民権運 動の(偉大な闘争の)時代とは異なるからである。左翼は、不満であるにせよ、時代との調和性を考える必要が。 Jones urged them to use their heads, even if their hearts aren’t in it. “If we just support the president, just vote for Democrats, we don’t get what we want,” he said. “But if we don’t, our opponents get power and decimate us. Can we put our thinking caps on now?” Surely Jones knows that it’s hard to put on a thinking cap when you’re in the fetal position. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *アメリカの左翼の過激な運動が、ウオール街選挙運動にせよウイスコンシン州知事リコール運動にせよ、失敗していることは興味 深い。なによりも、当初は支持を示唆していたオバマ大統領府が、両者の運動の過激化に伴って距離を置くようにしていることが全 てを説明する。それは極左から見れば「オバマの裏切り」である。これは我が国でいえば、反原発運動が再稼働問題で「野田政権の 裏切り」を言うのと全く同じ構図。
Ten days before Greece’s elections, a member of the neo-nazi party, Golden Dawn, repeatedly hit a female candidate of the communist party while appearing live on a television talk show and threw water over a female candidate of the radical left Syriza. The communist had just called him a “bloody fascist” and he addressed her as a “commie”. Greek elites (journalists, intellectuals, politicians) condemned his violence almost unequivocally. Yet the ugliest part of this incident was the readiness of many lay people to defend him, even cheer him, while the neo-nazis rose in the polls. 選挙の10日前、TVの政治討論がライブ放送されていた席で、ネオナチ政党の「黄金の夜明け」党の候補が急進左派政党Syrizaの女性候補を 攻撃し、水をぶっかけるという事件があった。Syrizaの候補は彼を「血まみれのファシスト」と呼び、黄金の夜明けの候補は彼女を「共産 党員」と呼んで非難した。ギリシャの知識人、ジャーナリスト、政治家らは暴力的行為を非難したが、この事件では黄金の夜明けの候補を 擁護する向きは少なからずいて、歓声を上げる人もいる有様で、それが問題であリ、ネオナチ党は選挙で善戦している。
Unfortunately this episode was not isolated. Despite the narrow victory of a centrist party in Sunday’s vote, almost every day extremist violence breaks out in Athens and beyond. Neo-nazis against immigrants, anarchists and leftists. Anarchists, ultra -leftists and other fringe groups of the nationalist-populist camp against riot police, mainstream politicians, journalists, liberal intellectuals, even artists. Add to this a surge in crime and rising tolerance of violence and you have a clearer picture of today’s Athens. Does it remind you of anything? 不幸にも、この事件は特異な例というわけではなくて、選挙では中道保守派のNDが辛くも勝利したとはいえ、アテネやその他の地域では毎日 過激派の暴力行為がある。ネオナチの移民、アナーキスト、極左への攻撃があり、今日のアテネでは警官隊、メインストリーム政治家、ジャ ーナリストらは、ポピュリストでナショナリストを称するグループとか極左とかアナーキストと対峙している。これに加えて犯罪の増加と暴 力容認の風潮があって、これがアテネの状況なのだが、これはいつかの時代と似ていないだろうか?
That’s right. Greece’s situation recalls the Weimar Republic. Violence (and its banalisation), hate, rage, polarisation, fear, despair and resignation. As for the police, it has already taken sides: neo-nazis won by a landslide in polling stations where officers were assigned to vote. そう、これは1930年代のワイマール共和国の時代に似ている。暴力、憎悪、熱狂、二極化、恐怖、絶望、屈服。警官隊について言えば、彼ら は既にネオナチを容認していて役人たちの投票する地域でネオナチは地滑り的に勝利している。
The electoral results demonstrate the dangers to the Greek democracy. The centre-right New Democracy party may have edged ahead, but the parliament, for the first time in Greek history, will be full of extremists. Besides the neo-nazis and a Stalinist communist party there is Syriza, whose leader is a fan of Mao Zedong, Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez. It is difficult to find a notable dictator, even among the great butchers of the 20th century, without a steady following in the Greek parliament. The three protagonists of the dreadful TV incident were also elected. Imagine them together in routine parliamentary proceedings. Golden Dawn members have already made it clear they would come down hard on any member of parliament saying something they strongly disapprove of. 選挙の結果はギリシャの民主主義の危機を示している。中道保守のNDは一歩だけ進んで第一党を確保したとはいえ、ギリシャの議会政治の歴史 上はじめて過激派政党が多数進出した。ネオナチの黄金の夜明けや、スターリン主義で共産主義のSyrizaがいる。Syriza党首は毛沢東、カスト ロ、チェベスを尊敬している。こうした特大級の独裁者に習うという政治家がギリシャの議会にいるわけだ。TVの討論番組で暴力を示した議員 も無論当選している。こうしたメンバーの議会での行動が憂慮される。 (略) Greece was always on the winning side: in the first world war, the second world war, the cold war. From 1929 to 1980 Greece had an average growth rate of 5.2 per cent and was admitted to the European Community as early as 1981 partly as a reward. The rest is history: welfare populism, cronyism, statism and corruption can describe the Greek political system for most of the period from 1981. This is why Greek people have finally punished the two former main parties (New Democracy and the social -democratic Pasok party) for leading Greece into a horrible economic crisis with huge debts and deficits and a corrupt, inefficient state, unfit for reform and captured by special interests. This failure of the mainstream political system and of the short-sighted, growth-stifling austerity policies enforced by the European leadership led Greece to the precipice. Greek people are disillusioned, miserable, exasperated and very frightened. They seem to be falling into the same trap again, by rewarding demagoguery, political opportunism and arrogant ignorance. Their knee -jerk reaction was to vote for parties such as Syriza, the rightwing nationalist and populist Independent Greeks and the Golden Dawn. These parties became vehicles for a popular backlash, gathering more than 41 per cent of the vote. 歴史的にはギリシャはWWI、WWII、冷戦を通じて勝者の側にいた。1929年から1980年までギリシャの平均成長率は5.2%であった。EUへの参加 の承認は、部分的にはその報奨でもあった。しかし、その後の混乱は改めて言うまでもない。福祉ポピュリズム、縁故主義、国家権威主義、 汚職などが1981年以降のギリシャの政治を説明できる。そのために、今の時期の選挙で有権者はこれまでの主流であった二大政党(NDとPasok) を失政と経済崩壊の咎で罰したのだが。EUはギリシャに緊縮財政政策を求め、ギリシャ国民は窮地に追い込まれ、幻滅し、惨めで、憤慨させら れ、大変怯えている。このために、ギリシャ国民は扇動政治家、機会便乗主義者、傲慢な無知者などに褒賞を与えるという誤りの罠に陥ってい る。ギリシャ国民が条件反射的にSyrizaとかギリシャ独立党(極右ナショナリスト)とか、黄金の夜明け(ネオナチ)に投票したのだが、これ らの政党というのは大衆のバックラッシュの反映というべきもので、その比率は投票の41%に達した(後略)