State of the Union address, U.S. President Barack Obama wholeheartedly embraced hydraulic fracturing without even mentioning it, telling his audience, “We have a supply of natural gas that can last America nearly 100 years. And my administration will take every possible action to safely develop this energy.” ttp://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Poland-Gives-Green-Light-to-Massive-Fracking-Efforts.html
Poland has taken a different tack, noting that thanks to fracking of natural gas shale deposits, in 2009 the United States became the world's largest gas producer, overtaking Russia and driving down prices. The day after the contentious Bulgarian vote Polish Treasury Minister Mikolaj Budzanowski told reporters that Polish companies with permits to explore for shale gas in the country must intensify drilling to start production of the fuel by 2014 or 2015, with Polish companies each drilling 12 wells and performing 12 hydraulic fracking operations annually. (ブルガリア議会は国内のシェールガス開発を禁止する決定をしたのだが)ポーランドは政府が国内のシェールガス開発を支持。 計画では2014-15には12のガス田で操業を行う予定。
The reason for such enthusiasm? Simple, said Budzanowski - Poland’s shale-derived gas could be as much as 50 percent cheaper than the Gazprom natural gas Poland now receives from the 2,607 mile-long Yamal-Europe natural gas pipeline, which currently costs Warsaw more than $500 per 1,000 cubic meters (tcm) for West Siberian output. ポーランドがシェール・ガス開発に積極的な理由は、現在のポーランドがロシアからのパイプラインのガスに依存していて、国内 の開発が成功すれば価格がロシアから買うガスの半分になると予想されるため。
Seeking to cut the expensive Russian natural gas umbilical cord, Poland has high expectations for its projected indigenous production shale natural gas, as it currently depends on Russian Gazprom supplies for nearly two-thirds of its annual gas consumption of 14 bcm, estimating its domestic reserves of conventional natural gas at some 100 bcm, which would only meet domestic needs for slightly more than seven years. ポーランドの天然ガス需要は現在140億立方メートルで三分の二をロシアからの供給によっている。
A report from Japan's Atomic Energy Agency said the China Experimental Fast Reactor (CEFR) stopped generating electricity in October following an accident. With Japan already reeling from the meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear plant in March last year, the incident sparked alarm there and in South Korea over the prospect of radiation leaking from the CEFR. Those fears were intensified by Beijing's failure to report the accident or release details of what happened, according to a Tokyo newspaper which cited the Japanese Atomic Energy Agency's investigation.
Given the typical pattern in which presidents' ratings tend to be most polarized in their fourth year in office, when presidents are seeking re-election, Republicans' and Democrats' views of Obama may diverge even further this year.
That may be all over now. It started on Aug. 15, 1971, when U.S. President Richard Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard and the world of modern-day foreign exchange trading began. So did the yen’s rise?from Y357.41 against the dollar in August 1971 to a record Y75.31 on Oct. 31, 2012. 対ドルでの、継続する円高の歴史が終わるのかもしれない?ニクソン・ショック以降、円は357.41から昨年10月末の75.31まで40年間 上昇を続けてきた。
The yen has barely budged from that spot since then, but some traders and analysts are wondering whether the 40-year trend is about to turn around. Analysts at Citigroup say a move toward Y100 by year-end 2013?an exchange rate last seen in 2009?”may not be as incredible [or impossible] as it today sounds.” シティグループのアナリストは2013年末の1ドル100円に向けて、交換レートが円安に動くとみている
Adam Meyers, senior market strategist at Credit Agricole , suggested buying three-month dollar calls against the yen. Myers believes investors underestimated the scale of Japanese repatriation after the March 2011 earthquake. Some may be caught off guard by “the exhaustion of repatriation” and what he calls an “increasing public Japanese retaliation against a strong yen.” Since the earthquake, inflows from large European reinsurers, as well as Japan’s domestic insurance companies, contributed to a sharp rise in the yen. Additional inflows from both the corporate and retail sectors repatriating yen for dollars as a risk avoidance strategy helped the yen rise. 震災後の日本には保険会社の海外からの資金の回帰があり、円高に寄与した。また日本企業などの危険回避のための円への回帰が あった。
But the landscape may be changing. Japanese life insurance companies and pension funds want to “compete on a world stage,” says Kevin Sollitt, foreign exchange portfolio manager for Clutterbuck Capital Management LLC. That means buying assets outside Japan. しかし保険会社や年金資金の戦略が変化していて、海外資産の購入に動く向きがある。
“With this wall of money behind them, over time, a vastly weaker yen is to come,” Sollitt said. If the U.S. economy continues to gain momentum Sollitt would consider a move to Y88.72 as a first step for the dollar’s recovery. Clutterbuck Capital Management LLCのKevin Sollittは88.72円が、ドル高に向かう最初のステップという。
Japan has a major difficulty in attracting foreign direct investment and at least for now posts a trade deficit. The country has an aging population resulting in what a Barclays research paper calls an “elderly boom.” Add in the countries fiscal deficit, the largest of any developed country, and it’s a win triple. And that deficit is rising, exceeding 1 quadrillion yen today. The aging of Japan’s population and ballooning deficit have been a known quantity for years but what is unknown is the future cost of importing energy. What could very well tip the scales in favor of a weaker yen is a sustained rise in the price of oil. 昨年は日本の貿易赤字が記録され、財政赤字が増えていて、今後とも石油価格が上昇すれば日本の貿易収支は不利で、円安に向かう と見る
On Jan. 16, Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali Naimi said he hopes to “stabilize this oil price and keep it at a level around $100.” サウジアラビアは石油価格をバレルあたり$100で安定化させるといっている
If Saudi Arabia gets its wish?and as the world’s top oil exporter, it probably will?that means an ever-increasing fiscal deficit for energy importer Japan, further undermining the yen’s strength. そうした石油価格の高止まりがあれば円の強さが阻害される
But don’t throw in the towel just yet, says Goldman Sachs . The investment firm-turned bank believes Japan’s trade deficit was a direct result of the earthquake. Goldman believes monthly surpluses will return in the second half of 2012 as the impact of the earthquake fades away gradually. So which way dollar yen? The arguments higher are clear. しかしゴールドマンサックスは日本の貿易赤字は震災のせいであり、日本の貿易収支は2012年2Qに黒字に戻ると見ている。
But as traders often say, “the trend is your friend” and calling the bottom of a 40 year trend? Well that is not usually a very profitable trade 40年にわたる円高の歴史が終わるのかすらん? 常識的に見て、それにかけるのは危険な気がするが
-Belgium LT IDR downgraded to ‘AA’ from ‘AA+’; Negative Outlook; ST IDR affirmed at ‘F1+’ -Cyprus LT IDR downgraded to ‘BBB-’ from ‘BBB’; Negative Outlook; ST IDR affirmed at ‘F3′ -Ireland LT IDR affirmed at ‘BBB+’; Negative Outlook; ST IDR affirmed at ‘F2′ -Italy LT IDR downgraded to ‘A-’ from ‘A+’; Negative Outlook; ST IDR downgraded to ‘F2′ from ‘F1′ -Slovenia LT IDR downgraded to ‘A’ from ‘AA-’; Negative Outlook; ST IDR downgraded to ‘F1′ from ‘F1+’ -Spain LT IDR downgraded ‘A’ from ‘AA-’; Negative Outlook; ST IDR downgraded to ‘F1′ from ‘F1+’
The inventory contribution to growth, nearly twice what his research team’s expectation at 1.9%, means that inventories are more likely to contribute negatively to the first quarter than positively. This points to the potential weakness of both consumers and capital expenditures and, more importantly, that government spending is now a major drag on GDP. その1.9%という異常な大きさはQ1のGDPに悪影響が出る。消費支出や固定資産投資の弱さ、政府支出の減少があるので Q1のGDPは大変弱い(0%とかの)値になり得るという First Quarter GDP Could Be a Big Goose Egg: Lombard Street
1. China’s rise is marginalizing American influence in Asia.中国の台頭はアジアにおけるアメリカの影響力を低下させる Just the opposite.(ry それは逆
2. China’s massive foreign exchange reserves give it huge clout. 中国の膨大な外貨準備は大きな力 China’s hard currency hoard adds little punch to its geopolitical power because its stockpile results from a growth strategy that relies on an undervalued currency to keep exports competitive. If China threatens to reduce its investment in U.S. debt, it will either have to find alternative investments (not an easy task these days) or export less to the United States (not a good idea for Chinese manufacturers).(ry
3. The Communist Party has the Internet under control.共産党はインターネットを(検閲の)管理下においている In spite of its huge investments in technology and manpower, the Communist Party is having a hard time taming China’s vibrant cyberspace.(ry むりむりむりのかたつむり
4. China’s regime has bought off the middle class.中国政府は中間層の支持を得ている Hardly. ・・・ There is a world of difference between political apathy and enduring loyalty.(ry まさか。支持としらけは異なる。
5. China’s rapid economic growth shows no signs of slowing. 中国の急速な経済成長は続く If China wants to keep its high growth rate, it must graduate to making Chinese-designed high-tech and high-value -added products. It will need more innovation, which demands less government control and more intellectual freedom. Most critically, the investment-driven and state-led economic model responsible for China’s rapid growth must give way to a more efficient, consumption-driven, market-oriented model. Such a shift will not be possible without downsizing the state and making the party accountable to the Chinese people.
For example, if the crude oil spot price were $100 per barrel and Iran had to discount its oil to $80 per barrel to entice buyers, a Chinese trader could then swap the Iranian crude to another firm. By swapping its Iranian crude for another oil cargo at market prices (or a higher price than it paid the Iranian sellers), the company can gain “extra” oil relative to what it originally paid in Iran and resell it for a profit.
A group of Syria’s opposition “Free Army” has released a video showing what it was said were seven Iranians, including five members of the Revolutionary Guards, captured in the city of Homs. The video showed travel documents of the captives, some of whom appeared to be speaking Farsi. “I am Sajjad Amirian, a member the Revolutionary Guards of the Iranian armed forces. I am a member of the team in charge of cracking down on protesters in Syria and we receive our orders directly from the security division of the Syrian air force in Homs,” one of the captives said. シリアの反政府勢力である自由シリア軍(FSA)はホムスで拘束したとする7人のイラン人(5人の革命防衛隊兵を含む)のビデオを 公開した。ビデオではイラン人の旅行関連書類を示していて、一部は明らかにFarsi(ペルシャ語)を話している。革命防衛隊の 兵士と称する男はホムスの戦闘に参加し、シリア空軍の警備部門から直接の指示を受けたと語っている。
The armed Syrian opposition group, which called itself the “al-Farouq brigade of the Free Syrian Army,” also released a statement calling for Iran’s Supreme leader Ali Khamanei to “acknowledge in explicit and unambiguous words the existence of elements of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in Syria in order to help the Assad’s regime in its crackdown on the Syrian people.” The group also urged Khamanei to withdraw all Revolutionary Guard fighters from Syria, pledging that that it would then release all captive Iranian fighters. FSAはこの事件に関連してイランのハメネイ師に、シリアの紛争から手を引くように要求し、シリア国内のすべての革命防衛隊の 撤去を求め、それが実施されるなら捕虜として拘束中のイラン人を解放すると述べた。
For decades, Japan simply imported the wares of foreign cultures, but recession has led to invention. The country has begun creating the finest American denim, French cuisine and Italian espresso in the world. Now is the time to visit. 何十年にもわたって、日本は外国の文化文物を輸入してきたが、リセッションが発明につながっていて、今では日本は アメリカン・デニムの最善のもの。フランス料理の最善のもの、エスプレッソの最善のものなどを作っている。その幾つかを 訪問してレポートする。 (訪問インタビュー、中略) It's no surprise to see the top ranks of Japan's Red Guide populated by tiny sushi bars and extravagant kaiseki restaurants, but each year there are also more and more non-Japanese restaurants earning stars for their creative cooking. One of Tokyo's three-star establishments?an honor awarded to only 15 restaurants in the main cities of Europe but to 16 in Tokyo alone?is Quintessence, which serves contemporary French food created by a young Japanese chef named Shuzo Kishida. 日本のトップクラスのレストランが小さな寿司屋や非常に高価な会席料理を代表とするとしても、今では毎年、外国料理の トップクラスのものが出てきている。そういうわけでミシュランの3☆店が16もあって本家のパリの15をしのいでいることは 不思議ではない。レポーターはそのひとつ、フランス料理 Quintessenceの日本人シェフである岸田修三氏にインタビューを(ry (訪問インタビュー、中略) And while the Japanese have done an admirable job of exporting their native cuisine and culture, perhaps the next challenge for their flagging economy is to learn to export everything they do best. While some of these ventures do well financially, others just seem to hang on. Japan's superior cocktails, cuisine, clothes and hospitality deserve to catch on globally, but who knows if they will even continue to last in Japan. Which is precisely why this is the moment to visit. 日本は寿司とかの固有文化文物の輸出に成功したが、次にくるべきは国内でマスターした(魔改造の)すべてのものを輸出する ことではないか。日本のカクテル、(外国)料理、衣装、もてなしなどをグローバルに広めるという(ry
So how does this process get reversed? How do central banks pull back trillions of dollars of money printing without throwing markets into a tailspin? Frankly, no one knows, least of all central banks as they continue to make new money printing records. Until a worldwide exit strategy can be articulated and understood, risk markets will rise and fall based on the perceptions and realities of central bank balance sheets. As long as this is perceived to be a good thing, like perpetually rising home prices were perceived to be a good thing, risk markets will rise. When/If these central banks go too far, as was eventually the case with home prices, expanding balance sheets will no longer be looked upon in a positive light. Instead they will be viewed in the same light as CDOs backed by sub-prime mortgages were when home prices were falling. The heads of these central banks will no longer be put on a pedestal but looked upon as eight Alan Greenspans that caused a financial crisis. The tipping point between balance sheet expansion being bullish for risk assets versus bearish is impossible to know. Given the growth rate of central bank balance sheets around the world over the past few years, we might not have to wait too long to find out. Enjoy it while it is still bullish.
Speaking to the Wall Street Journal, Defense Secretary Panetta, Pentagon officials say Washington seeking new weapons that would overcome depth of Iranian enrichment facilities, recent fortifications. By Haaretz WSJのインタビューに答えたパネッタ国防長官と国防省スタッフは、イランの地下ウラン濃縮施設を破壊できる程度に強力な 爆弾の開発を求めている(ry ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203363504577187420287098692.html?KEYWORDS=bomb+iran BUSINESSJANUARY 28, 2012 Pentagon Seeks Mightier Bomb vs. Iran By ADAM ENTOUS And JULIAN E. BARNES 国防省は対イランの強力爆弾を求める WSJ
WASHINGTON?Pentagon war planners have concluded that their largest conventional bomb isn't yet capable of destroying Iran's most heavily fortified underground facilities, and are stepping up efforts to make it more powerful, according to U.S. officials briefed on the plan. 国防省の戦争計画立案者は現有の最大の(非核)爆弾でもイランの地下各施設の破壊の能力が無く、より強力な爆弾の開発 を求めているとした(ry
◆薬事法・関税法に違反か 電子按腹器ハッピーヘルスの収益金管理団体Health For the World (HFW)の代表者、ヘソ按腹指導員の前川富三氏は自身のブログに 「HQ-8000LC(電子按腹器)は厚生労働省の認可を得ている医療器具 (電気治療器)のこと」と記載している。(略) これも真っ赤な嘘だったというわけだ。 厚生労働省医薬食品局 監視指導・麻薬対策課の担当者に問い合わせた ところ、「このような許可はしていない」との回答を得た。(略)
The most common scenario I hear is that tensions and violence will continue to the point in the coming year where economic collapse causes some influential figures in regime of President Bashar Assad to carry out a coup, after despairing that Assad can find a political solution to the crisis. Such a coup would be led by Alawite and Sunni military officers who would recognize the need to make a deal with the demonstrators and send Syria onto a path of serious political democratization, while sparing Alawites widespread retribution after the fall of the House of Assad. A variation of this sees an inside plot to assassinate the top leaders, and bring an immediate end to the crisis. 私の聞き及ぶひとつのシナリオは、緊張と暴力が継続し、経済の破綻がアサド政権に対するクーデターを呼び、それは Alawite派と スン二派の軍人によるもので、彼らは反政府勢力との取引の必要性を感じて交渉に入る。アサド政権の崩壊後にはAlawite派への広範 な報復があるというもの。この変形としてトップの暗殺による危機解消の試みというのも。
Another common scenario is that the Russians will recognize that Assad’s approach is doomed to fail and will shift away from their current course of using a veto to prevent Security Council moves to pressure Damascus. In this script, Russia convinces Assad to step down and leave the country with his extended family and their riches. 別のシナリオではロシアがアサド政権の限界を見てそれを見限り、国連安保理でのアサド政権擁護の態度を変えるというもの。 このシナリオではロシアがアサドの退位とファミリーや富裕層への政権移譲で合意するという。
A variation on this sees a combination of Alawite leaders, military officers and top businessmen collectively deciding that they are all doomed if the current trends persist, and working together to do one of two things: either to engineer a coup and force Assad’s exit, or to sit him down and make clear that they ? his pillars of support ? see only doom, so that he must turn over power to a democratic transitional leadership before total collapse ruins the country. このシナリオの変形では、Alawite 派の指導者、軍人、トップビジネスの連合が協力して救国のために行動する。アサド退位の ためにクーデターを起こすとか、アサドから政権を連合体に移し暫定政権が国の崩壊を防ぐというもの。
A more dramatic possibility in some people’s view is for regional and global powers to impose no-fly zones and safe havens along Syria’s northern and southern borders. This would speed up the regime’s abandonment by tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians, speeding up its collapse from within. This process would be hastened by further economic deterioration impacting on all sectors of society, as tighter international sanctions ? including bans on aviation and banking links with Syria ? lead to shortages of basic goods and runaway inflation that make it impossible for most Syrians to live a normal life. This would also spark massive anti-regime demonstrations in Damascus and Aleppo, the death knell of the Assads. よりドラマティックなシナリオでは、中東とグローバルの外国勢力がノーフライゾーンの設定、南北シリア間のセーフティゾーンの 設定を行うというもの。これはシリア国内に数万人の兵士や避難民の移動をおこし政権崩壊を早める。経済制裁が強化されるなら 更にその効果が高まる。制裁がシリアの銀行の取引規制などを行うなら国内のインフレや日常品不足を起こして通常の生活が不可能 になる。それは反政府デモなどを呼びアサド退陣を要求させる。
A more drastic possibility is that the polarization of Syrian society along ethnic lines and full civil war will reach a point where the unified state collapses, and the Alawites retreat into their mountains to form their own state in their northwestern heartland. Some suggest this has been the aim of the crisis all along, with “outsiders” provoking civil strife to the point where Syria breaks up into statelets, including Alawite, Druze, Kurdish and Sunni entities. よりドラスチックなシナリオでは、シリア国内の宗教宗派対立が高まり、完全な内戦に突入する。統一国家は崩壊して Alawites派 は北西部の山岳地帯に逃れる。外国勢力が干渉し、シリアは Alawites派、Druze派、スン二派、クルド族などに分裂する。
The most terrible scenario sees the deterioration in Syria leading the Assad regime to implement the Sampson Option. It would seek to instigate strife and chaos across the region, in order to plunge the Levant into a regional conflagration. This option would be based on the Assads’ assumption that if they cannot rule over a unified Syria, then nobody in the neighborhood should be able to live in peace and security either. Such a scenario would involve attacking or fomenting strife in Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, Turkey and Iraq, perhaps resulting in the desperate use of chemical or even nuclear weapons. 最悪のシナリオではシリアの情勢悪化がアサドをしてサムソン・オプション(イスラエルの核保有政策の説明に使われる表現で、 国の存続を脅かす敵に核攻撃を含む大規模報復を与えることを言う)を選ばせ、中東全域に及ぶ混乱を起こさしめる。それ はレーバント地域(地中海の東側沿岸国、キプロス、エジプト、イスラエル、レバーノン、シリア、トルコを指す)に大災害を もたらすことを目的とする。このシナリオの意味はアサドからみて統一シリアが維持できないなら、この地域の誰も安全に暮らす ことは出来ない、というもの。それはレバノン、イスラエル、ヨルダン、トルコ、イラクへの攻撃をおこさしめるもの。化学爆弾 とか、核爆弾でさえ、その使用に躊躇することがないだろう。
3.応募資格 @ 本法人の建学の精神、教育理念ならびに帝塚山学院大学の教育目的をよく理解し、熱意を持って教 育に取り組める方。教員として人間的に優れた資質を有する方。 A 韓国語が第一言語であるか、又はそれと同等の韓国語運用能力があること。 外国語としての韓国語を3 年以上大学などの公的機関で教えた経験があること。(中級レベルの韓 国語を直接法で教えられることが望ましい) B 授業及び日常的な事務連絡などに支障のない日本語能力を有していること。 C 韓国関連の学問で修士以上の学位を持っていること。(言語学/韓国語教育専攻者、博士学位取得 者が望ましい) D 韓国専攻の広報に積極的に関われること。 E 採用後は、大阪府かその周辺に居住できる方。
OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) ? About 300 people were arrested Saturday during a chaotic day of Occupy protests that saw demonstrators break into City Hall and burn an American flag, as police earlier fired tear gas and bean bags to disperse hundreds of people after some threw rocks and bottles and tore down fencing outside a nearby convention center. オークランドで土曜日に「オキュパイ・オークランド」抗議行動の集団がシティホールを占拠し、アメリカ国旗を燃やし、これを 制止しようとした警官隊が催涙ガスやビーンバグを使用してもみ合いが起こり、一部の集団が石や瓶を投げるなどして混乱が起こ り300人が逮捕された。
The demonstration comes after Occupy protesters said earlier this week that they planned to move into a vacant building and turn it into a social center and political hub. They also threatened to try to shut down the port, occupy the airport and take over City Hall. オキュパイ・オークランドの抗議集団は今週、シティ・ホールなどを占拠して政治的ハブであるソーシャル・センターにする計画 を発表していた。さらに彼らはオークランド港の閉鎖や空港の閉鎖を試みるとしていた。
(Reuters) - Syrian soldiers killed 19 people in fighting to retake Damascus suburbs from rebels on Sunday, activists said, a day after the Arab League suspended its monitoring mission in Syria because of mounting violence.
中国は石油開発などを通じてスーダンと密接な関係を構築。進出企業がインフラ整備を行っている。中国外務省は事件後、スーダ ン側に中国人スタッフを救出し、中国人の安全確保を強化するよう要請。スーダン軍が救出作戦を始めている。 スーダンのバシル大統領は事件の起きた28日に賈慶林全国政治協商会議主席とエチオピアのアディスアベバで会談し、関係強化 で一致している。(共同) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://bikyamasr.com/55287/sudanese-rebels-seize-29-chinese-workers/ Sudanese rebels seize 29 Chinese workers Bill Smith | 29 January 2012 | 0 Comments スーダンの反政府勢力が中国人労働者29人を拘束 DPA
Beijing (dpa) ? Rebels in Sudan’s South Kordofan area have seized more than 20 Chinese employees of a road construction company, China’s Foreign Ministry and state media reported Sunday. The rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement said it was holding 29 Chinese citizens following an attack on the company’s camp in South Kordofan on Saturday, the official Xinhua news agency quoted a spokesman for the group as saying. China on Sunday asked the Sudanese government to expedite a rescue operation and prioritize the safety of the Chinese citizens, the Foreign Ministry said in a statement on its official website.
The Chinese embassy in Khartoum confirmed that more than 20 Chinese nationals were missing, the agency reported. “The abducted Chinese workers “have been transported to a safe area and they are in good health and in safe hands,” it quoted Arno Taloudy, the spokesman for the rebels, as saying by telephone from the Kenyan capital, Nairobi. “Armed clashes took place between our forces and the Sudanese army at an area near Al-Abbasiya Tagali town in South Kordofan,” the agency quoted him as saying. “We have controlled the area and 29 Chinese were held.” カーツームの中国大使館は20人以上の中国人労働者が拘束されたと確認し、彼らは安全な場所に移動させられたが安全や健康に 問題のない状態にある、とのべた。ナイロビで電話取材に応じた反政府勢力側はAl-Abbasiya Tagali近郊で政府軍と反政府勢力 の武力衝突があり、反政府側が同地域を占拠し、29人の中国人労働者を拘束したと述べた。
●For each extra barrel of oil produced over the past seven years from Russia, and Canada, there has been a loss of production from the North Sea, from Mexico, from Indonesia and elsewhere.
●And in the case of OPEC, there has been a stubborn flatlining of production growth, which, in the true spirit of argumentum ad ignorantium, has been taken as proof of OPEC’s hidden and secret supply.
●Thus, we are led to the newest and strangest meme of all: the failure of global oil production to grow over seven years, in the face of a phase transition in oil prices, is not even suggestive of peak oil. But rather, proof of oil’s imminent supply resurrection. (*注:resurrection【名】生き返り、よみがえり、蘇生、〔死からの〕復活 復興、再生)
ttp://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=255722 Syria says 'terrorists' blow up gas pipeline By REUTERS01/30/2012 11:56State television says blast near Lebanese border causes 460,000 cubic meters of gas to leak. By REUTERS シリア政府は「テロリスト」がガス・パイプラインを爆破と発表 ロイター
BEIRUT - Syria's state news agency said on Monday that a "terrorist group" blew up a gas pipeline running between the center of the country and its coast. The pro-government Addounia TV station also reported the attack and said the blast, which occurred near Telkalakh, close to the Lebanese border, caused a leak of about 460,000 cubic meters of gas. シリアの国有メディアはレバノンとの国境付近のTelkalakh,で「テロリスト」がガス・パイプラインを爆破し、46万立方メートルのガスが漏洩したと述べた。 Syria has faced gas shortages as pipelines come under attack while President Bashar Assad's forces try to crush protests and an armed insurgency aimed at toppling him.(ry
南スーダンの現状について、ガーディアン ---------------------------------------- ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jan/29/south-sudan-oil-rows The South Sudan dream is turning sour Rows over oil … Khartoum attacks on rebels with suspected Juba links … US double-dealing. Independence is proving tough By Simon Tisdall Sunday 29 January 2012 15.13 GMT
It is now a year since the people of South Sudan voted overwhelmingly for independence from Khartoum. But the vision of a new era of peace and co-operation between north and south, endorsed at the time by President Omar al-Bashir and the southern leader, President Salva Kiir, is fading fast amid deepening disputes over oil revenue-sharing, cross-border conflict, and looming famine. These multiple crises combine to pose a fundamental question: can South Sudan survive as a viable state? ・・・・・・ A fairer assessment might conclude that, despite appearances, neither the north nor the south has fully renounced their generations-old conflict, which both are continuing by other means. Only renewed, committed and even-handed international engagement, reinforcing the AU's efforts, has a chance of breaking these deeply ingrained behaviour patterns.
The largest missing block of the economy is consumer spending on services, with the shortfall spread out among a number of sub-components ? housing and utilities, health care, financial services, and transportation. … Residential investment (deviation from average: -0.7 ppt) and state and local government (-0.5 ppt) are the next largest laggards. 最大の原因は消費支出の低下、住宅や医療、金融サービスや運輸も減少、居住者の住宅投資やローカル政府の支出も減少 Gross exports have been the most significant growth outperformer in the recovery so far, though a more moderate run rate for global growth this year (our expectation) suggests that status is vulnerable. 輸出がGDP成長の最大の貢献者であるけれど、グローバル経済の成長が鈍化しているので、この伸びは危ういところが
米国、欧州連合(EU)、メキシコが訴え、日本も利害関係のある「第三国」として紛争に関与。今後、ハイテク機器の部品に使 われるレアアース(希土類)の輸出規制に関しても紛争処理手続きに入る可能性がある。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/30/china-wto-exports-idUSB5E8CE00W20120130 RPT-China loses appeal in WTO export restrictions case (Repeats to attach story to additional alert)
"Today's report is a tremendous victory for the United States - particularly its manufacturers and workers," U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk said in a statement. "The Obama Administration will continue to ensure that China and every other country play by the rules so that U.S. workers and companies can compete and succeed on a level playing field."
EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht said the decision would force China to drop export restrictions for the materials in question, as well as for rare earths, which are subject of a separate case. "This final ruling is a great success in our efforts to ensure fair access to the much needed raw materials for EU industry," he said in a statement. (Reporting by Tom Miles)
So why the sudden focus on Portugal? It’s not entirely clear. Portugal has enough money to last until 2013. Standard & Poor’s downgraded the country to junk two weeks ago, but was anybody surprised? It’s not news that Portugal is waaaay behind on its economic and fiscal reforms. 急にポルトガル国債が注目されるようになった理由は、はっきりしないが国内の経済財政改革は遅れがち And frankly the Portuguese bond market isn’t exactly liquid. On Tradeweb, the bid/offer spread for the 2014 bonds, as measured in yield, is three percentage points. That’s wide enough to drive a truck full of linguica through. それにポルトガル国債の市場は流動性が不足 Still, this bears watching. We all know that markets can take on a life of their own, and a second Portuguese bailout, coupled with a restructuring, would be some unexpected, legitimate bad news… いずれにせよ市場にはネガティブのニュースで第二次の救済とかになればよくない話・・・
結論 Iran CAN acquire weapons-grade uranium for one weapon by MID-AUG 2012 under currently-announced plans for expanding enrichment. This scenario is SOMEWHAT LIKELY.
Iran WILL acquire enough 19.75% uranium by 1 JUN 2012 to be within 2.5 MONTHS of producing weapons-grade uranium for one 15 kiloton bomb under certain contested technical assumptions. This scenario is MOST LIKELY.
But as Russia continues to supply Syria with arms and fuel, mere words have become futile. The Arab states must now collectively approach Russia, warning Syria’s ally that any influence they still retain in the Middle East is in jeopardy. This is the language that countries understand. They are not charities, but pragmatic machines, with markets and interests at stake. But while the idle talk continues, it is the Syrian people who will continue to pay the price, and it is for them that tangible methods must be adopted immediately.
ttp://www.debka.com/article/21693/ Assad masses loyal troops in Damascus after he was warned of a military coup DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 30, 2012, 9:38 PM (GMT+02:00) アサド政権に対する軍のクーデターの噂があり、政府は信頼する忠実な兵士を首都周辺に集結させている DEBKA 30日
According to exclusive reports reaching DEBKAfile, President Bashar Assad Sunday, Jan. 30, pulled in the Syrian Republican Guard and the 4th armored divisions commanded by his brother Maher Assad from the northern rebel centers and over to Damascus. He ordered them into battle positions in the capital for the first time in the ten month uprising after receiving an intelligence tipoff that western powers had won over one of the armored division commanders posted in the capital and persuaded him to stage a coup d'etat to topple him. アサド大統領は30日に共和国防衛隊の第四部隊(アサド大統領の兄弟が指揮している)を北部から引き上げダマスカス中心部と 周辺部に配備した。アサドがこうした共和国防衛隊による首都警部を命じたのは始めてのことで、この配備の理由は諜報情報に よりクーデターの計画があるとされたため。クデーターは軍の指揮官が西側と通じ、首都での蜂起を計画するという。
The renegade general, whose identity is unknown, was reported to be planning to take advantage of the absence of the most trusted regime troops in trouble spots across the country to lead 300 tanks into the capital and seize power. この計画はアサド大統領の信頼する共和国防衛隊の部隊が地方の紛争のために駆り出されている隙を突いて、300の戦車を率いて 首都を制圧するという。
The conspirators were planning to make their move on the night of Monday Jan. 30 or early Tuesday Jan. 31, just before the UN Security Council was to convene in New York and air plans for him to step down. The putsch would have presented its members with the accomplished fact of Assad's overthrow by the military. この計画は30日の夜から31日にかけて計画されたものであるという。(後略) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *例によってDEBKA記事で検証不可能なので、判断留保、聞き置く程度だけれど、こういう話が伝わる事自体が現状の混乱を(ry
ttp://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/01/201213144956880720.html US says Assad's fall 'inevitable' Last Modified: 31 Jan 2012 12:19 White House says Syria's leadership has lost control of the country, as Western and Arab nations push for UN resolution. ホワイトハウス広報官はアサド大統領が国のコントロールを失ったと言明 アルジャジーラ 31日
Washington is seeking to convince Russia not to stand in the way of the Arab League's initiative, to be presented to the Security Council in New York on Tuesday, calling for Assad to transfer power to help resolve the crisis. "Assad's fall is inevitable," Jim Carney, the White House spokesman, said on Monday. "As governments make decisions about where they stand on this issue and what steps need to be taken with regards to brutality of Assad's regime, it's important to calculate into your consideration the fact that he will go. The regime has lost control of the country and he will eventually fall." ホワイトハウス広報官のJim Carneyは月曜日に「アサド政権の崩壊は不可避」と述べた。アサド政権が国のコントロールを失って いるとして諸国の安保理決議案への同調を求めた
But a senior Russian diplomat said on Tuesday that the push for adoption of a the Western-Arab draft resolution was a "path to civil war". "The Western draft Security Council resolution on Syria will not lead to a search for compromise," Interfax news agency quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov as saying. "Pushing it is a path to civil war." しかしロシアの外交官は、アラブ同盟と西欧の提案する安保理決議案は「内戦への道を開く」として拒否した。インターファックス に依ればGennady Gatilov副外相は「西欧の安保理決議案の草案は妥協をもたらさない。それは内戦への道を開く」と述べた。
Earlier, Russia suggested to the government and the opposition that they should meet in the Russian capital for "informal contacts" without any preconditions. Russia said Assad's government had agreed to talks, but a major opposition body rejected the offer. これより先にロシアはシリア政府と反政府側がモスクワで会談することを提案しているが、アサド政権はこれを了承したが反政府側 が拒否したという。
"The resignation of Assad is the condition for any negotiation on the transition to a democratic government in Syria," Burhan Ghalioun, head of the opposition Syrian National Council, told the AFP news agency. AFPに依れば反政府側SNCのBurhan Ghaliounは「アサド辞任が全ての交渉の前提条件」としている。
WASHINGTON (AP) With the violence in Syria soaring, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Monday she will join the French and British foreign ministers at the U.N. Security Council to press for a clear message of world support for Syria's besieged people. "We stand with you," Clinton told them in a statement. Clinton said the U.S. will throw its weight behind an Arab-backed condemnation of President Bashar Assad's regime, which she said was brutally blocking the country's hopes of peacefully transitioning toward democracy. The escalating violence could destabilize Syria's neighbors in the powder keg that is the Middle East, she warned.
"The status quo is unsustainable," Clinton said. "The longer the Assad regime continues its attacks on the Syrian people and stands in the way of a peaceful transition, the greater the concern that instability will escalate and spill over throughout the region." Assad's regime is intensifying an assault against army defectors and protesters. クリントン国務長官はアサド大統領を非難し反政府側を支持するアラブ同盟の主張を支持し、シリア国内の暴力の停止と平和裏の 民主体制への移管を求めた。「現状は容認し難く、アサド大統領がシリア国民を攻撃する事を認められない。シリアの不安定化は 近隣中東諸国に悪影響を及ぼす」とした。
中国の輸出規制をWTOがルール違反としたことについて、中国のレアアース関連の政策を批判して、WSJのレビュー&アウトルック ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204740904577194561694181598.html FEBRUARY 1, 2012 A Rare-Earths Opportunity China risks paying a hefty price to defend a failed policy.
A recent report by Scott Kennedy for the Dragonomics research firm suggests that China's rare-earths policy is the product of bureaucratic wrangling among at least four different government agencies, rather than a grand mercantilist strategy. But in any case, the underlying cause of the intervention is the same, a pervasive mistrust of the market. The government's attempts to restrict production and exports are regularly circumvented by miners and smugglers, which may help explain why rare-earths prices came back down late last year after spiking in 2010. The supply uncertainty and price volatility over the last two years has hurt Chinese as well as foreign companies, and spurred governments and mining companies to go prospecting elsewhere for new sources of ore.
China's top leaders could use the WTO ruling as cover to reconsider their failed policy. Rare earths may be essential for some applications, but China's exports of these minerals are small beer, just $939 million in 2010, according to Mr. Kennedy. The country could pay a much bigger price in lost trade and prestige if it insists on breaking WTO rules. Beijing has a chance to show that it respects the WTO by ending its self-defeating export quotas now.
“The substance of what is being offered and the fact that it is the Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, that are doing the engagement gives a window of opportunity to turn the Russians around,” says Salman Sheikh, analyst at the Brookings Doha Centre.
“Syria is an axis nation: if the situation continues to go wrong, you have the division of the region and a division internationally and that won’t be helpful to anyone. If you can form alliances and consensus regionally and internati
Recent concerns about the size of China’s nuclear arsenal have arisen in the wake of a study by Georgetown Prof. Phillip Karber, which considers the question of why China has a vast network of underground tunnels referred to as China’s “underground Great Wall.” Karber suggests that these 3,000 miles of complicated tunnels could host about 3,000 nuclear weapons. My recent paper (“ The defensive nature of China’s underground great wall,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Jan.16, 2012 ) provides a comprehensive response to Karber’s report ? and offers an alternative explanation. ジョージタウン大学の Phillip Karber教授が最近論文で示して、中国の膨大な地下トンネル、つまり地下の万里の長城について、 それは(推定)3000基の核ミサイルの発射基地であるとしている。
Here I want to consider: What are the purposes of this 3,000-mile network of underground tunnels? 地下トンネルに3000基もの核ミサイルを配備する理由について、ここで考えてみる。
The key argument Karber makes to support his estimate of 3000 weapons is that “more tunnel growth” means more “nuclear warhead growth.” If those tunnels are just used for storage of nuclear warheads, this logic might seem reasonable. However, China’s underground Great Wall is not just for weapons storage. It is operated mainly as a missile launch base (zhendi). I like to call it “subterranean ballistic missile” (an underground-based version of a nuclear missile submarine, or SSBN). Just as a submarine deterrent offers survivability, so too does a subterranean force; the philosophy underpinning the two are the same. 問題であることは3000のミサイルという彼の推定は地下トンネルの建設の成長を元にしている。しかし中国の地下トンネルはミサイ ルの貯蔵のためだけで無く、発射基地を兼ねていることである。核攻撃能力のある潜水艦が攻撃から逃れているように、中国の地下 の万里の長城は海に潜るように地下に潜るものである。
China’s underground Great Wall is converting its land-based ballistic missiles into “tunnel-launched ballistic missiles” (I prefer the new acronym “TLBM”). Thus, China has moved its land-base missiles to underground-basing to ensure a limited and reliable second-strike nuclear force after absorbing a first nuclear strike. On this basis, it should be not difficult to understand why China builds it with so many tunnels. It is the same reason a ballistic -missile submarine with about one hundred warheads needs so huge an ocean! 地下トンネル発射核ミサイル(TLBM)というのは地上ベースの核ミサイルを地下に移してファースト・ストライクから核ミサイルを 守るものである。
Given the fact that China has no reliable operational air-based (bomber) or sea-based (SSBN) nuclear forces, the main focus of the Second Artillery since 1980, when it initiated China’s nuclear modernization, has been how to ensure that its limited land-based strategic missiles can survive a first nuclear strike. With the development of Soviet/Russian and U.S. satellite surveillance capabilities and the increased accuracy of their nuclear weapons, China became concerned about the vulnerability of its land-based missiles, in particular its silo-based DF-5s and its cave-based DF-4 missiles, which need to be pulled out and launched from pre-prepared above-ground launch sites. These liquid-fueled missiles usually take up to two hours pof reparation for launch. In addition, unlike the US and Russia, China does not have a reliable early warning system and its missiles are not in a launch-on-warning posture. 中国は十分信頼に足る爆撃機による核攻撃とか潜水艦(SSBN)による核攻撃の体制が十分でないので地上ベースの核ミサイルが ファースト・ストライクにも耐えられるように戦略核システムを作っている。地上ベースのミサイル発射システムの脆弱性を補 う為(液体燃料の装填の必要がある)であり、さらに中国には信頼性の高い早期警戒システムがなく、ミサイルシステムはそれ らの警戒システムと連動しない。
If China feels confident that its underground Great Wall would ensure the survival of a reliable retaliatory force from the first strike, then the major drivers for speeding up China’s nuclear modernization would be the US missile defense, which could neutralize the surviving small force. 中国が地下の万里の長城によって、核ミサイルをファースト・ストライクから守り、報復攻撃の能力を保有するこに自信を深める のであれば、次のステップは米国のMD能力の中和化である。 To respond to missile defense, Beijing could take the option to build more warheads. To discourage Beijing from moving to such a buildup, Washington should accept mutual deterrence with Beijing instead of pursuing nuclear primacy, and limit its missile defense in a way that does not threaten the potential effectiveness of China’s small arsenal. Meanwhile, if Washington and Moscow move forward to a deeper cut of their nuclear forces, China will have to reassure both capitals that it will cap its arsenal at a low level (say 200 warheads). MDの中和化のためのオプションの一つはより多くの核弾頭の製造である(ry
EAMONN FINGLETONの評論については同じNYTに、PAUL KRUGMANが反論を書いています。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/09/japan-reconsidered-2/ Japan, Reconsidered January 9, 2012, 9:30 AM PAUL KRUGMAN
A number of readers have asked me for an evaluation of Eamonn Fingleton’s article about Japan. Is Japan doing as well as he says? Well, no ? but his point about the overstatement of Japan’s decline is right. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *まあ、こういうのはいつものディベートですが、どうせ紹介するなら反論や修正意見も含めて考えてみるべきもので(ry
At the beginning of March, a single, simplified approach will replace most of the 70-odd service-specific privacy policies that came before. As the Android example above demonstrates, Google has already broken down the walls between some services to let private information flow freely across its various networks. The privacy spring-cleaning will complete this process and make it explicit.
It will also leave Google with a powerful database of information about its users to sell to advertisers. For the first time, provided you are signed in, your choice of viewing on YouTube will influence the adverts that are served up to you when you are searching on Google.
ttp://www.debka.com/article/21700/ Israel: Iran's nuclear arms program is complete, its missiles can reach US DEBKAfile Special Report February 2, 2012, 3:21 PM (GMT+02:00) イスラエル軍の諜報部チーフ「イランは核爆弾製造の準備を終えた」 DEBKA
Iran has completed the development of a nuclear weapon and awaits nothing more than a sign from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to start assembling its first nuclear bomb, said Israeli Military Intelligence Chief Major General Aviv Kochavi on Thursday, February 2. Assembling a bomb would take up to a year, Kochavi estimated. With 100 kilograms of uranium enriched to 20 percent grade and another 4 tons of uranium enriched to 3.5 percent already in stock, Iran would need another two years to make four nuclear bombs. Therefore, by the end of 2012 or early 2013 Iran may have a single nuclear bomb, but by 2015 the figure would jump to four or five.
His comments coincided with the findings published Thursday by the Enterprise Institute, an American think tank, that Iran would be able to manufacture a 15-kiloton nuclear bomb as soon as August of this year, just seven months from now. 彼のこの発言は、先に米国のシンクタンクAEIが公表していたイランの核開発のレポートの結論と一致する。AEIはもっとも早い場 合は2012年8月に15キロトンの核爆弾を製造できるとしていた(後略) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *AEIのレポートというのは>>455のことで ttp://www.irantracker.org/sites/default/files/imce-images/Zarif_Iran_Nuclear_Timeline.pdf The Iranian Nuclear Program: Timelines, Data, and Estimates By Maseh Zarif January 26, 2012 先にも書いたように、このAEIのレポートでは、モースト・ライクリーとかサムホワッツ・ライクリーとかカテゴリーを変えた 複数のシナリオで推計しているので、2012年夏というのはメインラインの推計ではないけど。
ttp://www.ocregister.com/opinion/global-338432-warming-energy.html Published: Feb. 1, 2012 Updated: 4:27 p.m. Editorial: Climate data chills global-warming alarmism Earth’s temperature hasn’t risen in 15 year; solar phase may herald cooling. (社説)地球気候変動のデータが温暖化論を冷している 地球の温度は過去15年間上昇していない (OCレジスター)
Great Britain's heretofore hotbed of global warming alarmism, East Anglia's Climate Research Center, now says there been no meaningful warming since 1997. 英国のプロ温暖化の論客のメッカとも言うべきイースト・アングリア大学の気候変動研究センターは今や、1997年から15年間の 地球の温度に意味のある温暖化は見当たらないという。(後略)
(Newsroom America) -- New data released by a noted climate research institute last week indicated that the earth has not warmed in more than a decade, findings that are sure to challenge the global warming mentality for years held by a number of scientists. The data, released with little fanfare by the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit in London, shows that the earth has not warmed in at least 15 years. The university's conclusion was based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations.(ry