Japan has told the US it hopes to further reduce its reliance on Iranian oil imports in a “planned way” at an early date, amid a push from Washington for greater international pressure on Tehran to curb its expanding nuclear programme.
Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand said it arrested a Lebanese terror suspect less than three hours after the U.S. warned of a possible attack in Bangkok and urged citizens to exercise caution in public areas. Thai police arrested a suspect linked to Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah, Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung told reporters. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra confirmed that police had made an arrest. “The situation is normal,” Police Chief Priewpan Damapong told reporters. “There is nothing to worry about.” INN News cited Chalerm as saying two suspects were arrested. The threat is probably related to U.S. moves to sanction Iran over its nuclear weapons program, according to Anthony Davis, a Bangkok-based analyst at IHS Jane’s.
<イラン情報の更新> ttp://www.debka.com/article/21648/ US stations two aircraft carriers opposite Iran, 15,000 troops in Kuwait DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 13, 2012, 12:00 PM (GMT+02:00) 米軍はイラン対抗のため空母2隻に加え、クエートに15000人の兵士を送る DEBKA、13日
US President Barack Obama is busy aligning Middle East allies with the next US steps on Iran. Contributing to the mounting sense in Washington of an approaching US-Iranian confrontation, the Pentagon is substantially building up its combat power around Iran, stationing nearly 15,000 troops in Kuwait - two Army infantry brigades and a helicopter unit ? and keeping two aircraft carriers the region. The USS Carl Vinson, the USS John Stennis which was to have returned to home base and their strike groups will stay in the Arabian Sea. Iran is caught up in the same pre-war swirl of activity. Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani spent two days in Ankara this week. But Turkish leaders failed in their bid to sell their good offices as brokers for averting the expected collision between Tehran and the West. Before flying out of Ankara Friday, Jan. 13, Larijani commented: "We have different ways of doing things." 米軍は空母2隻をアラビア海に置き、此れに加えてクエートに2つの歩兵旅団とヘリコプター部隊からなる15000人の兵士を送った。 トルコを訪問してイランと西側の調停を試みたイランの国会議長Ali Larijaniは、調停工作不調のままアンカラを離れた。
DEBKAfile's Iranian sources quote the Iranian official as telling his hosts that his country is prepared to take on any military aggressors. One of the responses weighed in Tehran to meet the rising military pressure might be an open declaration of Iran as a nuclear power. By accepting a visit by IAEA inspectors on Jan. 28 - to investigate charges that Iran is running a clandestine nuclear bomb program - Tehran may be moving toward that irreversible admission - or possibly its first nuclear test. DEBKA-Net-Weekly 528 disclosed exclusively on Nov. 25, 2011 that Iran may soon publicize its attainment of a nuclear weapon, a step still being debated intensely at the highest levels of the Islamic regime in Tehran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who will make the ultimate decision, is very much in favor of facing the world as a nuclear -armed Islamic Republic. He calculates that this fait accompli has a good change of warding off a Western and/or Israeli military attack. DEBKAの週間ニュースレターは11月25日にイランは指導部高層で盛んに議論されている核爆弾製造について間もなく公言すると伝えた。 ハメネイ師は最終的判断を下すと見られるが、イランの核武装に強く傾いている。現在の機会にそうした方向を示すことは西欧や米国 やイスラエルに対して既成事実を作るのに好都合と見ている可能性がある。
Thursday night, Jan. 12, President Obama put in a call to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss coordinating US and Israeli moves for a military operation against Iran, which many US media believe to be imminent. The New York Times wrote Friday under the caption: Dangerous Tension with Iran, "Many officials, experts and commentators increasingly expect some kind of military confrontation." Obama had similar conversations with other Middle East leaders this week. The and Saudi and Qatari foreign ministers, Prince Saud al-Faisal and Sheikh Hamad al-Thani, spent two days on Jan. 10-11 in Washington talking to the US president. The contents of their talks were kept under tight wraps. Friday, British premier David Cameron suddenly turned up in Riyadh for talks with Saudi King Abdullah and Crown Prince Nayef. 12日にオバマ大統領はイスラエルのネタニヤフ首相と電話会談して政策協調を進めている。NYTは金曜日の記事で米国政府高官、専門 家、コメンテーターがイランに対して何らかの軍事的行動を予想していると書いている。オバマ大統領は今週、サウジアラビアや カタール外相とも会談している。Saud al-Faisal皇子とSheikh Hamad al-Thaniは10−11日にワシントンで大統領と会談した。会談 内容は極秘にされているが金曜日に英国のキャメロン首相が突然サウジアラビアを訪問し、アブドラ王とNayef皇太子と会談している。
Discussions on military preparations centering on Iran inevitably concern the need for urgent action to halt the unending carnage in Syria, Iran's close ally. 対イランの軍事的準備行動はシリアの最近の内紛とも関連し、内戦状況の停止のための行動が語られている。
Thursday, the Russian National Security Adviser Nikolai Patrushev, one of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's closest advisers, said ominously: "We are receiving information that NATO members and some Persian Gulf States working under the 'Libyan scenario' intend to move from indirect intervention in Syria to direct military intervention." Moscow has consistently spoken out against any foreign intervention in the Syrian conflict ? or even tough UN sanctions. Russia's NATO ambassador Dmitry Rogozin has suggested more than once that the West would use a military adventure in Syria as the jumping-off point for an attack on Iran. 木曜日にロシアの国家安全保障補佐官のNikolai Patrushev(プーチン首相の最も近しいアドバイザーの一人)は「我々の得ている 情報では一部のNATO加盟国やペルシャ湾岸諸国がシリアに対して、これまでの間接的関与から『リビア・シナリオ』のもとで直接的 干渉を行うよう計画している」と語った。ロシア政府は一貫としてシリアへの外国政府の干渉に反対の立場を取っている。また国連 安保理による、さらなる経済制裁に反対している。ロシアのNATO大使であるDmitry Rogozinは、西側諸国は此れまでもイラン攻撃の ジャンピング地点としてシリアに進行しているという。
Another sign that Syria is under the military eye of the West came from an indiscreet comment Israel's Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz made Tuesday, Jan. 10 in a briefing to a Knesset panel. Israel, he said, is preparing to absorb members of Bashar Assad's Alawite sect after his downfall. He later detracted his words. DEBKAfile disclose that the context of the general's comment was Israeli preparations to establish a buffer zone on the Syrian side of the Golan border to shelter Alawites fleeing the vengeance of their compatriots. イスラエルの参謀長のBenny Gantz中将は火曜日に、シリアからのAlawite派(シーア派の分派)の逃避に備えゴラン境界のシリア側 のバッファーゾーンにシェルターを設けるという案を示唆している。
Turkey too has gone back to talking about setting up in northern Syria a Turkish buffer zone for refugees and anti-Assad dissidents. トルコでもシリア北部のトルコ境界に反アサド政権の難民のバッファーゾーンを設ける計画について議論している。
Further fueling the war scare, two helmeted bombers on a motorbike assassinated the Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan, deputy director of the Natanz uranium enrichment center, in central Tehran Wednesday. Friday, Ayatollah Khamenei accused the United States and Israel of a CIA-Mossad master plan, which Iranian sources claimed bore the title "Red Windows" and focused on training Iranian dissidents for hit and sabotage operations in Iran. テヘランで2人のヘルメットをかむったモータバイクの爆弾攻撃者がイランの核科学者(Natanzウラン濃縮センターの副所長)を殺戮 したことにつき、ハメネイ師は米国とイスラエルを非難しCIA-Mossadの計画であるとした。イランは米国やイスラエルが反体制イラ ン人をそうした攻撃のために訓練しているという。
*DJ Several Euro-Zone Countries Could Face “Imminent” Downgrade By S&P -EU Sources *DJ S&P Euro-Zone Downgrades Could Come As Early As Friday-EU Sources *DJ S&P Declines Comment On Imminent Euro-Zone Downgrades
Dow futures are now down 60 points, S&P futures are down 8 points, and Nasdaq futures are off 8 points. Update: Reuters has since reported with more specificity that euro-zone downgrades are imminent and that Germany has not been downgraded. Chatter is that France, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Belgium have already been downgraded, with an official announcement due at noon ET.
(Reuters) - Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's is set to downgrade several euro zone countries, not including Germany, on Friday, a senior euro zone government source said. The source did not say which countries' debt ratings would be downgraded.
ttp://english.cri.cn/6966/2012/01/13/2561s676145.htm Does Japan PM's new Cabinet Selection Mark Beginning of the End for DPJ? 2012-01-13 17:44:53 Xinhua Web Editor: Liuyuanhui 野田改造内閣発足は、日本の民主党の終わりの始まりか? 新華社CRI英語版 13日
The Japanese premier has vowed to submit a controversial bill in the next parliamentary session to raise the 5 percent sales tax in two stages, to 8 percent in 2014 and to 10 percent by 2015. But Noda, who took office in September as Japan's sixth prime minister in just five years, is quickly running out of bargaining chips to enact his key tax hikes in a bid to curb the nation's ballooning public debt, currently topping 200 percent of Japan's GDP, and if the Liberal Democratic Party-led opposition bloc opt to abstain from further talks with the DPJ on the issue, Noda will be forced to dissolve the lower house of parliament and call a snap election.
With latest national surveys showing that 22.4 percent of voters backed the LDP against 20.7 for the DPJ, marking the first time the LDP had the lead since Noda took office, the question being asked among pundits now is which will happen first, will the the DPJ implode from the inside or be blown up from the outside?
If you thought Europe wasn’t producing enough scary headlines, here comes this from CNBC. Michelle Caruso-Cabrera said Greek debt negotiators are “less optimistic” they can avoid a deal that doesn’t trigger Greek credit default swaps. Bloomberg, meanwhile, reports that Greek debt negotiations have, quoting the Institute for International Finance, “paused for reflection.” That’s one way to put it!
The market is now even lower on that report, and some more chatter that France could be in store for a two-notch downgrade, which would be a little more severe than expected.
The Dow was recently down 150 points, the S&P and Nasdaq off 1.2%. The 10-year Treasury note was at 1.85%. The euro is getting absolutely crushed, down 1.2% now to $1.2663. French bonds are still falling, pushing yields higher ? and a rise from 3.01% to 3.09% is nothing to sneeze at ? but I still say it could be worse.
Eurozone in crisis From GLOBAL ECONOMY 4:02pm Greek debt restructuring talks collapse ギリシャの債務リストラ交渉が崩壊 Breakdown puts at risk Athens’ ?14.4bn bond repayment
WASHINGTON?U.S. defense leaders are increasingly concerned that Israel is preparing to take military action against Iran, over U.S. objections, and have stepped up contingency planning to safeguard U.S. facilities in the region in case of a conflict. アメリカ軍指導層はイスラエルがアメリカの反対にもかかわらず、加速的にイラン攻撃の準備を整えていることを憂慮し、紛争発生 時の非常時対応計画の一部として中東地域の(大使館他の)アメリカ側施設の安全確保の計画を進めている。
President Barack Obama, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and other top officials have delivered a string of private messages to Israeli leaders warning about the dire consequences of a strike. The U.S. wants Israel to give more time for the effects of sanctions and other measures intended to force Iran to abandon its perceived efforts to build nuclear weapons. オバマ大統領とペネッタ国防長官などの指導部はイスラエルに対する一連のメッセージを送って攻撃の結果引き起こされる事態の深 刻さを警告している。アメリカはイランの経済制裁の実施のためイスラエルが時間的猶予を与えることを望んでいる。
Stepping up the pressure, Mr. Obama spoke by telephone on Thursday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and U.S. Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will meet with Israeli military officials in Tel Aviv next week. このイスラエルへの圧力を高める行動の一部としてオバマ大統領はネタニヤフ首相に電話し統合参謀本部議長のMartin Dempseyは 来週テルアビブを訪問してイスラエル軍上層部と会談する。
The high-stakes planning and diplomacy comes as U.S. officials warn Tehran, including through what administration officials described Friday as direct messages to Iran's leaders, against provocative actions. Tehran has warned that it could retaliate to tightened sanctions by blocking oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz. On Thursday, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed to punish the perpetrators of the assassination?blamed by Iran on the U.S. and Israel?of an Iranian scientist involved in the nuclear program. イラン政府は経済制裁がホルムズ海峡封鎖を呼ぶと警告してきたが木曜日にはハメネイ師がイランの核科学者の殺戮事件について アメリカとイスラエルを非難し犯人の処罰を誓っている
The U.S. denied the charge and condemned the attack. Israel hasn't commented. アメリカ政府はイランの非難を否定し、攻撃を咎めているがイスラエルはコメントしていない。
Mr. Panetta and other top officials have privately sought assurances from Israeli leaders in recent weeks that they won't take military action against Iran. But the Israeli response has been noncommittal, U.S. officials said. U.S. officials briefed on the military's planning said concern has mounted over the past two years that Israel may strike Iran. But rising tensions with Iran and recent changes at Iranian nuclear sites have ratcheted up the level of U.S. alarm. "Our concern is heightened," a senior U.S. military official said of the probability of an Israeli strike over U.S. objections.(ry
Tehran which killed Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan last Wednesday, Jan. 11, generated an angry phone call from US President Barack Obama to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the next day, http://www.debka.com/article/21650/
Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan (died 11 January 2012) was an Iranian nuclear scientist and university professor killed in a bomb blast. According to the semi-official Fars news agency, Ahmadi-Roshan (aged 32) was a graduate of Sharif University and supervised a department at Natanz uranium enrichment facility in Isfahan province.[1] According to that agency, he died after two assailants on a motorcycle attached magnetic bombs to his car.[2] Citing the Fars News Agency, The Guardian reported that Ahmadi-Roshan was a chemistry expert specializing in "making polymeric membranes for gaseous diffusion, part of the process needed for the enrichment of uranium."[3] He was a deputy director for commercial affairs at Natanz uranium enrichment facility. The Fars News Agency reported that the driver of Roshan's car later also died in a hospital from injuries sustained in the explosion.[4](ry ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mostafa_Ahmadi-Roshan
Cutting off China and threatening U.S. solar jobs started in October when a German company with a manufacturing facility in Oregon filed a trade complaint with the U.S. International Trade Commission and the Department of Commerce demanding that punitive tariffs be imposed on solar panels and cells imported from China. Just before New Year's Day, several U.S. manufacturers filed a similar petition against China and Vietnam seeking special surcharges on wind towers imported from these countries.
Now that the first shots have been fired, there's a growing danger that China will retaliate. Already, China is considering asking the World Trade Organization to investigate alleged unfair practices in U.S. clean energy policies, including programs in Washington, California, New Jersey, Ohio and Massachusetts.
If these frictions ignite a full-scale trade war, our country's casualties could include eliminating many of 100,000-plus good-paying jobs (which have been expected to grow to almost 124,000 at the end of 2012), delaying dozens of solar energy projects, raising prices for consumers, reducing our energy security, and reversing the progress of an industry that is running an all-too-rare trade surplus with the rest of the world, including China.(ry ttp://www.miamiherald.com/2012/01/13/2587650/trade-war-with-china-could-claim.html
That leaves the middle way: buy from Iran, but buy less. China’s listed oil majors have already cut imports from Iran as much as 50 percent because of a dispute over payment terms. If they stick to those lower levels, the United States may turn a blind eye to China’s dealings with Iran, as it has before, leaving smaller and more opaque refiners to enjoy $70 dollar Iranian oil. By doing just enough and no more, China might get the best of both worlds.
The market implications of the ratings review are worse than a whole downgrade of the region owing to the increased political wrangling, questions on the EFSF/ESM firewall and the fact that flight to quality still has somewhere to go. Germany comes out as a clear winner and will have its position at the negotiating table strengthened even further. The French downgrade will complicate future negotiations around fiscal integration and comes at a delicate time domestically. The loss of the AAA is likely to be politicised in the run up of the upcoming general elections and could lead to an increase in popular support for fringe parties. ・・・・ Although Euro area member states “will explore the options” to keep the EFSF’s triple-A, we expect S&P will ultimately align the EFSF’s rating with that of France and Austria at AA+. Indeed, in order to maintain the AAA rating of the EFSF, euro area policy makers would have to accept a reduction in the lending capacity of the EFSF by Eur169bn. Alternatively they would need to increase their guarantees significantly, something we believe unlikely at a time that the focus is shifting on the ESM. The upcoming ESM will however also face a difficult trade-off between higher lending volume and achieving a AAA rating. ・・・・ Italy’s move to a BBB+ means it is now much closer to Junk status and we agree with S&P in that austerity is likely to be self-defeating and political risks remain high.
Overall, while the market impact of the downgrades is unlikely to be very significant in the short term, they serve as a stark reminder that the euro area sovereign crisis is here to stay. More importantly, these downgrades are likely to solidify expectations that neither the EFSF nor the ESM will be able to maintain their AAA rating. This in turn is likely to make any significant increase in the lending capacity of either institution more difficult. We continue to expect the crisis to deepen eventually leading to further widening in spreads across countries vis-a-vis Germany.
ttp://www.economist.com/node/21542805 Running out of moves Jan 14th 2012 | from the print edition Far from “appeasing” Iran, did Barack Obama give up on diplomacy too soon? イラン政策の手詰まり:融和には程遠い状況の中、オバマは外交的解決を諦めたのかすらん? エコノミスト
Sure, Mr Obama has made mistakes. While promising that all options are on the table, he has let successive defence secretaries say that bombing Iran would be futile and dangerous, which may be true but blurs the message. He also fumbled his response to the popular demonstrations that followed Iran’s fraudulent presidential election of June 2009. Having worked hard to start a dialogue with the Iranian leadership, and calculating that the Green movement would not be able to topple the government, he was slow to denounce the crushing of the protests. That looked weak. But the Republican claim that this squandered an opportunity to fell the regime is questionable. In contrast to Egypt, where America had influence on both Hosni Mubarak and the army it had helped to equip, it had no serious leverage on the ground in Iran, and its verbal support might have damaged the credibility of the very people it was trying to help.
In a thorough new history of the president’s engagement with Iran (“A Single Roll of the Dice”), Trita Parsi, the founder of the National Iranian American Council in Washington, DC, regrets Mr Obama’s failure to accept the proposal from Brazil and Turkey. Having chosen to pursue diplomacy and pressure simultaneously, he bet all the diplomacy on a single roll of the dice, and when that got nowhere was left only with the pressure?which may in time also fail. If diplomacy is ever to succeed, Mr Parsi says, America must not retreat at the first sign of Iranian intransigence or congressional opposition, both of which are inevitable. The trouble, he concludes, is that the 30-year enmity between Iran and America is no longer a phenomenon, “it is an institution”.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is due to arrive in Qatar Saturday amid fears that tighter international sanctions on Iran’s oil industry may affect China’s energy imports. Full details of Premier Wen’s six-day visit to the Middle East, which will also take him to the oil exporting nations of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, are still unknown, but securing energy supplies to meet growing Chinese demand is expected to top the agenda.China’s booming economy has become dependent on foreign oil, with 11 percent of imports coming from Iran. 中国の温首相は土曜日にカタールを訪問する。イランへの国際的な石油輸出禁止の経済制裁の高まりによる石油輸入の代替えを模索 しており、今後6日の温首相の訪問予定は明らかにされていないがUAEやサウジアラビアを含む中東産油国を訪問すると見られる。 中国は石油輸入の11%をイランに頼っていて経済成長を継続するために石油供給は不可欠である。
The United States on Wednesday called on China - the largest buyer of Iranian crude - to reduce its purchases as part of a bid to force Iran to abandon its nuclear program. The West says Iran's nuclear program is aimed at building weapons, but Iran says it is for peaceful purposes. 水曜日にアメリカ政府は中国にイラン石油の輸入の減少を求めている。イランの核爆弾開発を停止させるために制裁を行うとしてい るがイランは平和目的の核開発であると言っている。
Chinese officials have criticized the “unilateral” efforts of the United States to impose further sanctions on Iran. However, most analysts, like Christian Koch from the Gulf Research Center, say if China were to cooperate with the U.S. in the future, it would partly depend on assurances from Gulf countries that they would accommodate the extra oil demand that would ensue. 中国政府高官はアメリカによるイラン石油輸入抑制の要請を「ユニラテラル」と呼んで非難しているが、ガルフ・リサーチ・セン ターのChristian Kochはじめ多くのアナリストは中国がアメリカの要請に答えるとすれば、その一部はペルシャ湾岸諸国から石油 の代換え輸入が可能になるか否かに依存すると見ている(後略)
ttp://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=253651 Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, will visit Israel next weekend as part of a reported new and concerted American effort to prevent Israel from taking unilateral military action against Iran. 01/15/2012 04:02 アメリカの統合参謀本部議長、Martin Dempseyが来週末イスラエルを訪問する。その目的は(イランに対して)イスラエルが ユニラテラルな軍事行動を起こすことの無いよう確約を取ることである (いエルサレム・ポスト、15日) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *このまま事態がエスカレートすれば、アメリカが行動しなくともいずれイスラエルが対イランの軍事行動に踏み切るのでは、 という心配から、参謀本部議長がイスラエル軍首脳と階段のために来訪する。別の言葉でいえばイスラエルとイランの緊張関 係は従来にないレベルに高まってきている(ry
イランのホルムズ海峡封鎖の脅威などで国際石油価格の高騰が憂慮され、特に欧州の経済成長に悪影響を及ぼす恐れ (ワシントン・ポスト) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/increasing-concern-over-oil-prices-iran/2012/01/13/gIQAP98PzP_story.html Barclays Capital analysts noted on Friday that in terms of the euro currency, oil prices “have now almost matched their previous peak of July 2008,” draining money from economies already struggling with the sovereign debt crisis. Three of Europe’s most troubled economies ? Greece, Spain and Italy ? are also the E.U.’s biggest importers of Iranian crude and would be most affected by a new ban. (The United States already bars imports of Iranian crude oil.)
“At current prices, the world economy is going to grow at 3 percent to 3.5 percent this year,” said Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank. “That’s not great, but okay. At $125 a barrel, it is only going to grow 2.5 percent, and that’s not very good. And at $150, we might only grow 1 percent, and that’s a disaster.”
一部の国内メディアが、ティーパーティを極右と決め付け、共和党の大統領候補選択の障害になっているかのような 報道をしているけれど、これはトンデモない誤報、ミスリードで事実に反する。ラスムッセン世論調査分析から ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_scott_rasmussen/tea_party_mitt Tea Party Mitt? A Commentary By Scott Rasmussen Friday, January 13, 2012 ティーパーティはロムニー候補を支持するのか? By Scott Rasmussen 13日
Looking ahead to the Florida primary, 94 percent of tea party Republicans say they will vote for whomever wins the GOP nomination. Only 77 percent of non-tea party Republicans are willing to make the same pledge. This commitment to party loyalty comes even though tea party activists are less convinced than others that Romney is the strongest general election candidate. Similar results have been found in survey after survey in the 2012 primary season. フロリダ州で見るとティーパーティの共和党員の94%は、共和党の大統領候補に投票すると答えている。ティーパーティ以外の 共和党員は同じ質問に77%が共和党大統領候補に投票すると答えているのに比べて対比的である。ティーパーティにとって共和党 への忠誠のほうが、候補者個人への嗜好よりも高い。同じような調査結果が他の州でも見られる。
The pragmatism of the tea party is confirmed by exit polling data conducted for The Associated Press and major television networks in New Hampshire. Among those who support the tea party, 44 percent said the ability to beat President Obama was the most important quality they wanted in a candidate. Nothing else came close. ニューハンプシャーの共和党予備選挙の際のAPの行った出口調査でも、ティーパーティの(イデオロギー主義ではなく)実用主義 が確認されている。ティーパーティ支持者の44%はオバマ大統領を打ち破る最強の候補が大統領候補として最も重要と答えている。 それ以外の選択肢は、問題にされていない。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ *結論:ティーパーティにとって良い大統領候補はオバマを打ち破れる候補、その他の資質は二の次三の次
Greece’s opposition New Democracy party has widened its lead over the Socialist party, but wouldn’t have enough votes to form a majority government on its own, a public opinion poll showed Sunday. According to the Kathimerini newspaper, New Democracy would likely garner 30.5% of the vote if elections were held now, against just 14% for the Socialists. 日曜日に公表されたギリシャの世論調査に依れば、与党の社会主義党の支持率14%にくらべ、野党の新民主党は30.5%で支持を拡大 している。
The poll also showed a sharp rise in support for left-wing parties, especially the newly established Democratic Left party led by independent Greek politician Fotis Kouvellis. According to the poll, the Democratic Left would receive 12% of the vote?well above the 3% threshold needed to enter parliament?while the Communist Party of Greece would also get 12.5% and the Coalition of the Radical Left would get a further 12% of the vote. Greece’s Green party would also enter parliament for the first time, the poll showed, implying a hung parliament made up of seven parties, compared with five now. 更に、この調査に依れば新興勢力の左翼民主党は12%、ギリシャ共産党は12.5%、ラディカルな左派の連合グループは12%を獲得して おり、新興左派勢力が支持を拡大している。
Based on those results and taking into account Greece’s system of reinforced proportional representation, New Democracy would hold between 127 and 138 seats in Greece’s 300-member parliament following elections. The Socialists, who currently have 153 seats, would shrink to just a 32 to 43 seat minority. この結果から選挙のあった場合の議席を推測すれば新民主党は300議席中の127−138議席を獲得し過半数には満たないが勢力を拡大 する。現在153議席の与党社会主義党は32−43議席に縮小する。
The poll confirms other recent surveys showing a widespread disenchantment with Greece’s two largest parties?New Democracy and the Socialist, or Pasok, party?as well as deep-rooted concern over the future of the country. (source: Kathimerini, Dow Jones) この世論調査はギリシャ政治の二大政党への国民の不満を示唆しており、国の将来への関心と不安を示している。 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *金曜日のギリシャ政府とIIFの債務リストラ交渉の破綻といい、この世論調査結果といい、前途に暴風の悪寒が(ry
FEARS are mounting that Greece could be the first European country to default on its debt in 60 years as the country gears up to salvage collapsed talks over bond repayments. Three months of negotiations ground to a halt on Friday night, amid a wave of downgrades by ratings agency Standard & Poor's aimed at a clutch of European countries, including France. The unexpected breakdown in talks between Greece and its private-sector creditors has taken the country a step closer to bankruptcy after failure to sign lenders up to a voluntary and ''orderly'' 50 per cent haircut to their holdings. 金曜日の夜、3ヶ月に及ぶ債務リストラ交渉が決裂し、ギリシャのデフォルトの恐怖が高まっている。交渉では民間の債権者が ギリシャ側と妥協できず、デフォルトの恐れが高まった。
Greece's Finance Minister, Evangelos Venizelos, said talks would resume on Wednesday, but insiders remained sceptical a deal could be stitched together at such a late stage. ギリシャ財務相のEvangelos Venizelosは交渉は来週の水曜日に再開すると言っているがインサイダーは双方が妥協に持ち込めるか について批判的な見方をしている
The clock is ticking for Greece, as a deal must be reached before March 20, when it is due to receive a further ?130 billion ($160 billion) bail-out tranche from the International Monetary Fund and must make a key ?14.5 billion bond payment. 交渉の最終期限は3月20日のIMFからの130Bユーロの救済用追加融資の支払日で、14.5Bユーロの国債の支払期日である。
The problem centres on the difference between lenders agreeing to a ''voluntary'' and orderly default and lenders refusing terms, which would cause a default. This type of ''credit event'' would trigger billions of insurance claims through credit default swaps, insurance policies taken out to protect investors in the event of a default. The problem is that of the ?315 billion of Greek debt outstanding, only ?7.8 billion is covered by Greek credit default swaps. Most of Greek debt is held by European banks, which have little insurance on their exposure. And most Greek credit default swaps are held by hedge fund managers - accused by Germany and France of financially benefiting from sovereign woes. Telegraph, London 交渉の焦点は貸し手側が「自主的な」債務リストラへの賛同で、貸し手が拒否すればデフォルトを引き起こす。その場合はクレジット イベントの発生となりCDSの支払い条件となる。ギリシャの負債315Bユーロの中の7.8BユーロのみがCDSでカバーされており、欧州の 銀行の保有する国債の多くはCDSでカバーされていない。さらに殆どのギリシャCDSはヘッジファンドが保有している。ドイツとフラ ンスはヘッジファンドが危機に乗じて儲けようとしていると非難している。
【カイロ=大内清】バッシャール・アサド政権による市民弾圧が続くシリアに対し、外国による軍事介入の必要性を指摘する声が 強まっている。同政権に批判的なカタールのハマド首長は15日までに、アラブの元首としては初めて、アラブ諸国からの軍隊派 遣の可能性に言及。シリア反体制派の多くも武力介入を求め始めており、米欧が今後、どう反応するかが焦点となっている(ry ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://jp.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE8041A820120114 Qatar emir suggests sending Arab troops to Syria 2012年 01月 15日 07:16 JST
Asked if he was in favor of Arab nations intervening in Syria, Qatari Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani told the U.S. broadcaster CBS: "For such a situation to stop the killing ... some troops should go to stop the killing." The emir, whose country backed last year's NATO campaign that helped Libyan rebels topple Muammar Gaddafi, is the first Arab leader to propose Arab military intervention in Syria where protesters are demanding President Bashar al-Assad stand down. CBS said on its website that the interview would be broadcast in its "60 Minutes" program Sunday.
China’s economic growth has been meteoric. But a tough global environment in 2012 could herald several years of severe economic turbulence in China. 中国の経済成長は華々しいものであったが、2012年のグローバル経済の困難な環境は、中国の何年にも及ぶ経済的乱気流の 前兆となるのかも知れない。
China’s astonishing 46 percent fixed investment ratio to GDP necessarily involves huge wastage that will have to be curtailed. Much lower growth in future as the strong external demand of the past is no longer there implies much weaker investment growth. But consumer income depends on cash “trickling down” from the export and investment activity that have led the economy. This could be reduced unless the government, and associated state-owned banks and enterprises, willingly accept a much lower share of national income.
But Lu Ting, an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, also cautioned that the decline in China’s foreign exchange holdings was exaggerated by a series of more technical factors. The valuation effect of a weaker euro, a policy that encourages commercial banks to keep foreign currency in their own hands and the process of settling more trade in renminbi all probably combined to weigh on reserves, he said. ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b496aee8-3dcf-11e1-91ba-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1jVkLBMm7 Chinese foreign exchange reserves shrink By Simon Rabinovitch in Beijing
ttp://www.aljazeera.com/video/americas/2012/01/2012115195013117629.html China imports 'sinking' Brazil fishing sector Brazilian industries say they are under threat from flood of low-cost Chinese products. Last Modified: 15 Jan 2012 21:38 ビデオニュース:中国からに安価な輸入のために、ブラジルの漁業は死にそうになっている(アルジャジーラ) 英語
But as low-cost Chinese products begin to flood the Brazilian market, some Brazilian fishing companies have complained that they cannot compete. Al Jazeera's Gabriel Elizondo reports from Vigia, Brazil.
Egypt’s long-awaited talks with the International Monetary Fund started on Monday on a possible $3.2bn loan. But for investors, that might not be enough, says Raza Agha of RBS, who suggests Egypt might need much more “to raise investor confidence”. エジプトはIMFと$3.2Bの融資交渉を月曜日に開始した。しかしRBSのRaza Aghaは、この融資額が充分ではないだろうという。 エジプトの外貨収入は政権交代以降、急速に縮小し、資本逃避が起こるなど経済は危機的様相・・・
Agha argues that central bank numbers for December showed acceleration in the pace of decline, with $2.4 bn zipping out ? the highest pace of decline since March 2011 ? taking official reserve assets down to $18.3 bn. As has been reported, that’s down from $36bn a year earlier. But Agha says the true decline is worse, with as much as $4bn flowing out from reserves in December after taking into account a $1bn US dollar T-bill auction and a promised $1bn loan from the Egyptian army. Agha says the accelerated capital flight might have been driven by the clashes in the lead-up to the start of parliamentary elections in late November and the Salafists doing better than the liberal/secular/nationalist groups in parliamentary elections.
Agha’s calculations imply Egypt needs a lot more than $3.2bn from the Fund ? and that the requirements could increase with every week that the talks go on. Expect a large hat to be passed around the oil-rich corners of the Middle East. 一つの希望は、中東アラブ諸国からのエジプトへの支援の可能性・・・
A combination of covert operations, economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure, while at the same time keeping the military option “on the table,” is the only way to convince Tehran to back down. And maintaining a broad coalition of countries behind the sanctions is the best way to make them effective.
The S&P decision, however, may not even be the biggest source of anxiety. Talks between Greece and its private-sector creditors on the losses these should bear broke down on Friday afternoon. This failure raises the spectre of a messy Greek default. In such circumstances, investors might take a hint from the revised S&P ratings. If things go horribly wrong, Germany is now the only big euro-area bond market in which investors’ money might be considered truly safe. ttp://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/01/euro-zone-crisis The euro zone crisis:France goes soft-core Jan 14th 2012, 12:38 by J.O. | LONDON
Private creditors’ only bargaining chip is a threat to force Athens into disorderly default. That, however, is a power held at the mercy of eurozone politicians obstinately opposed to triggering credit default swaps on sovereign debt. Shed this obsession, and bondholders who have CDS protection will wave an “involuntary” exchange through.
It is a false concern that triggering CDS may set off market contagion. The market is too small ? and perverting the course of the swaps’ rules actually carries the bigger risk, as insurance on every other country’s debt would lose all credibility. The likely motive to push for a “voluntary” writedown is a desire to punish “speculators”.
Eurozone leaders should instead focus on the real dangers of PSI. This mostly concerns banks: Greek ones and the eurozone’s central bank. The European Central Bank should be asked to sell its Greek bonds ? at their purchase price ? to the eurozone’s rescue fund, which could swap them into a direct loan to Athens before PSI is carried out.
PSI will wipe out Greek domestic banks. But Athens has stolen a march on other eurozone countries with a new bank resolution law. It can use it to liberate the banking system of its unsecured, non-deposit liabilities. For once, Greece could set an example to follow.
The deal is by far the largest-ever sale of aircraft assets and attracted interest from as many as 30 financial and trade buyers, according to people familiar with the situation. Pricing came in ahead of market expectations in what is viewed as a key benchmark for the fast-growing industry.
People familiar with the situation had said that China Development Bank submitted the highest bid but Sumitomo Mitsui had the advantage of deliverability. Chinese buyers owned by the state typically take longer to conduct due diligence and reach a decision on an acquisition because the deal team has to report back to a central authority.
large parts of Africa are threatened by the distribution of fake and poor quality anti-malarials made illicitly in China. 中国で違法に作られた偽物で低品質な抗マラリア剤のせいで多くのアフリカの国々が脅かされている。
China’s economy expanded 8.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year, extending a slowdown that began at the start of 2011 and is expected to continue into 2012. “In terms of the domestic and international situation, 2012 will be a year of complexity and challenges so we should be fully prepared,” said Ma Jiantang, spokesman for China’s National Bureau of Statistics as he unveiled the latest figures for the world’s second-largest economy. ・・・・ “The property market correction is providing the greatest downside momentum, with still-tight credit conditions choking activity in the broader economy and the precarious eurozone providing plenty of drag,” said Alistair Thornton, an analyst at IHS Global Insight in Beijing. “The worst is still to come, with GDP growth likely to sink over a percentage point lower this quarter.”
Many other analysts are also predicting a sharper slowdown in the coming months. JPMorgan expects GDP growth to slow further to 7.6 per cent from a year earlier in the first quarter of 2012, driven down in part by declining exports to the EU and Japan.
IHS Global Insightの北京駐在アナリスト、Alistair Thorntonは、更に悪い状況がこの先に来ると予想、他の多くのアナリストも 今後数カ月の減速を予想、JPモーガンは輸出の鈍化によりQ1のGDP成長を7.6%と予想
In May 2011, The Brookings Institution Energy Security Initiative (ESI) began a year-long study into the prospects for a significant increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the United States. The study is divided into two parts: the first analyzes the factors that affect the feasibility of natural gas exports; the results of this stage of the project are presented in this interim report. The second will analyze the domestic and international implications of these potential exports. To inform its research ESI assembled a Task Force of independent natural-gas experts, whose expertise and insights provided the foundation for this study. The authors are grateful to the Task Force for their substantive inputs to this interim report and their careful review of the manuscript.
ギリシャは支払い不能で債務不履行に陥るだろう。ギリシャの債務不履行は驚くことではなく、まもなく起こること。 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/17/fitch-greece-idUSL6E8CH21920120117 Fitch says Greece to default, believes will be orderly STOCKHOLM | Tue Jan 17, 2012 6:14am EST
Jan 17 (Reuters) - Rating agency Fitch said on Tuesday that Greece would default on its debt, although it said that such a default was likely to take place in an orderly manner. "It is going to happen. Greece is insolvent so it will default," Edward Parker, Managing Director for Fitch's Sovereign and Supranational Group in Europe, the Middle East and Africa told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference in the Swedish capital. "So in that sense it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone."
The Fitch comments come after Moritz Kraemer, head of Standard & Poor's rating agency's European sovereign ratings unit, said on Monday Greece would default shortly on its debt obligations. Parker said that Fitch believed that even a voluntary agreement by private investors to take a haircut on Greek debt would constitute a default. "We have said for a long time that we don't think this PSI is the way to go and we would treat it as a default. It clearly is a default, however they try to spin it," he said. Parker said the worst result would would be a disorderly default. "That, would be, for us, the really damaging situation, but one which we are certainly not expecting to happen because, clearly, in a rational situation you would think Greek politicians and European policy makers would ensure that it doesn't happen."
People in Britain are dubious about the effect of multiculturalism in their country, but many acknowledge that racism has become a significant problem, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found. Angus Reidの実施した世論調査に依れば、英国の多文化主義について、国民は不審を持っており、レーシズムが国の大きな課題 になったと答えた。
In the online survey of a representative national sample of 2,014 British adults, only one-in-four respondents (26%) believe that multiculturalism has succeeded by allowing immigrant groups to have a better life in the UK. Conversely, 44 per cent of respondents think multiculturalism has failed and has pushed immigrant groups to live apart from the mainstream. 2014人の成人英国人への調査で26%が移民を受け入れて多文化主義を取る政策が成功したと答えた。44%は多文化主義が失敗し 移民がメインストリームに同化する事無く、(メインストリーム文化から)分離して生活する事を進めた、と答えた。
A majority of Britons (57%) believe racism is a significant problem in the United Kingdom, but only 23 per cent perceive it as a problem in their own city or town, and fewer (8%) regard is as a problem in their workplace. 過半数の57%が英国においてレーシズムが国家的な問題になったと答え、23%は街或いは市の固有の問題と答え、8%は職場の問題 と答えた。
More than half of respondents (54%) believe the UK is an intolerant society towards people of Romani origin, and almost half (49%) believe Arabs face comparable treatment. Other groups perceived to be receiving intolerance are Pakistanis (43%), Bangladeshis (37%) and Black Africans (30%). 過半数の54%はロマ人に対して英国は不寛容な社会と答え、49%はアラブ人も同様とした。パキスタン人(43%)、バングラディッ シュ人(37%)アフリカ黒人(30%)についても不寛容であると答えた(ry -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *英国は労働党政権のもとで多文化主義と移民に寛容な政策を打ち出してきたけれど、その結果、移民の人口は増え、文化的摩擦や 暴動事件が起こり、その政策はバックファイアーしているように見える。「移民に優しい」事を意図して打ち出された政策が、必 ずしも結果的に「移民に優しい」わけではないことを認識すべきで、同じようなことはオランダ他でも起こっている。
In short, there is no “Turkish model” for an Islamist democracy; rather, there are Muslims in a secular-democratic state working within a neoliberal framework. Structural and institutional factors in Turkey are historically unique and it is highly unlikely that we will see a similar process unfold in Egypt. Under Islamist leadership, Egypt will seek another framework ? one that will require the Islamist movement to separate its political and religious functions and allow for the political party to represent the aggregated interests of a voting demographic.
Because of this, the task of Islamists in Egypt will be more difficult than that of their Turkish counterparts. They must shed deeply ingrained habits of hierarchy and proselytism to build a democratic system with unique institutions.
これは英国の独立系(=政党や政府、特定企業に依存していない)シンクタンクのCivitasの研究レポートで、英国における 電力エネルギーソースの価格比較をしているもの。普通のこの種の価格比較は風力発電についての政府補助金や出力変動を カバーする為のバックアップ発電施設のコストを含んでいないものが多いけれど、このレポートはそれを計算している。結果 として、オフショア分力発電はコストが高すぎで、天然ガス火力と原子力の組み合わせがもっとも合理的という。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.civitas.org.uk/economy/electricitycosts2012.pdf Electricity Costs: The folly of wind-power Ruth Lea January 2012 電力コストの評価:風力発電の愚かさ Ruth Lea Civitas(英国、独立系シンクタンク)
Wind-power: inordinately expensive and ineffective at cutting CO2 emissions Energy experts warn that unwarranted support for wind-power is hindering genuinely cleaner energy The focus on wind-power, driven by the renewables targets, is preventing Britain from effectively reducing CO2 emissions, while crippling energy users with additional costs, according to a new Civitas report. The report finds that wind-power is unreliable and requires back-up power stations to be available in order to maintain a consistent electricity supply to households and businesses. This means that energy users pay twice: once for the window-dressing of renewables, and again for the fossil fuels that the energy sector continues to rely on. Contrary to the implied message of the Government’s approach, the analysis shows that wind-power is not a low-cost way of reducing emissions. Electricity Costs: the folly of wind-power, by economist Ruth Lea, uses Government-commissioned estimates of the costs of electricity generation in the UK to calculate the most cost-effective technologies. When all costs are included, gas -fired power is the most cost-efficient method of generating electricity in the short-term, while nuclear power stations become the most cost-efficient in the medium-term.
これはPatrick Chovanecによる中国のQ4のGDPについてのコメンタリー。ここでは特にGDPに寄与する不動産開発投資の 影響について考察していて、例によって興味深い・・ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://chovanec.wordpress.com/2012/01/17/bbc-chinas-2011-gdp-numbers/ BBC: China’s 2011 GDP Numbers JANUARY 17, 2012 Patrick Chovanec
Earlier today, I was interviewed on BBC about what these numbers mean. You can watch the interview here. You can also read my comments to the Washington Post here.
There are two pieces of data I saw today, easily lost in the fine print, that I found particularly revealing. First, the NBS disclosed that real estate investment accounted for 13% of China’s GDP in 2011 (compared to Stephen Roach’s estimate of 10%), and grew at a rate of 27.9%. However, I noticed something that I admit I missed before, in my earlier calculations ? that this is a nominal rate (not adjusted for inflation) whereas the GDP growth rate figures are real (they take inflation into account). The real (and therefore comparable) rate of expansion for real estate investment in 2011 was 20.0%.
So I went back and re-ran the numbers, using these more accurate figures. Given GDP growth of 9.2% (a higher starting point than I used in my initial calculations), a real growth rate of 20.0% for real estate implies a real growth rate of 7.6% for the rest of the economy. If, in 2012, real estate construction were merely to level off at zero growth, and the rest of the economy was unaffected, that would bring overall GDP down from 9.2% to 6.6%(ry
ttp://www.debka.com/article/21659/ Iran's Al Qods cells for Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Kuwait to hit oil and US targets DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 18, 2012, 10:39 AM (GMT+02:00) イランのAl Qods集団がサウジアラビア、トルコ、クエートの石油施設と米国施設の攻撃を計画して行動中 DEBKA
In the past 48 hours, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Turkey have alerted Washington to intelligence reports of Iranian Al Qods Brigades operatives heading their way for attacks on oil installations and American targets. The alert was accompanied by a query about how the US intended to respond to the approaching menace. 過去48時間に、サウジアラビア、クエート、トルコがアメリカ政府に諜報情報を伝えて、イランのAl Qods(テロリスト)小集団が 石油施設とアメリカ系組織の攻撃に向けて行動中とした。アメリカ政府の対応を問うている。
Reporting this, DEBKAfile’s intelligence and counterterrorism sources say the information relayed to Washington was more detailed and specific than the customary tip-off. この諜報情報の提供は通常のものよりも詳細を含み、個別特定の情報を含むという。
Tuesday, Jan. 17, a US spokesman accused Tehran of deepening its involvement in the Syrian conflict. For the second time in a week, Washington disclosed that Al Qods commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani had visited Damascus recently, confirming Iranian arms shipments for ensuring President Bashar Assad's victory over the uprising against him. 17日にアメリカ政府はイランがシリアの紛争への介入を深めていると非難した。Al Qodsの指揮官であるQassem Soleimani将軍が ダマスカスを訪問し、イランからの武器供与を確約している。
DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources report that another part of Soleimani's Damascus mission was to synchronize the Al Qods cells' strikes across the Middle East ? in Turkey, Lebanon, Gaza and Sinai ? with the tempo of Assad's crackdown on protest. He also dealt with setting up terrorist attacks against Israeli targets. このダマスカス訪問のもう一つの目的は中東地域におけるAl Qods集団の攻撃のシンクロナイズであり、トルコ、レバノン、ガザ、 シナイ半島とイスラエルにむけそれを進める。
A US spokesman said: “We are confident that he was received at the highest levels of the Syrian government, including by President Assad.” アメリカ政府広報官は「彼がアサド大統領を含むシリア政府の最高位に迎えられたことを確信している」と述べた。
Four months ago, in October 2011, the US accused Soleimani of a hatching a conspiracy to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington. 2011年11月にはアメリカ政府はSoleimaniがサウジアラビアの駐米大使の暗殺を計画していたと非難している
Tuesday night, the Turkish Security General Directorate-EGM put all the country's 81 districts on guard for the expected arrival of Al Qods operatives to stir up mass unrest against the Erdogan government and attack the US embassy and provincial consulates-general. Their arrival, said the EGM notice, would be coordinated with the infiltration of Hizballah terrorist teams to Turkey. 火曜日夜にトルコの安全保障庁は国内の81のすべての地域にf Al Qodsの活動に対する警戒を指示している。彼らはヒズボラの テロリスト・チームのトルコ侵入によってコーディネートされるという
DEBKAfile’s sources in Ankara believe Tehran is kicking off its first round of Middle East terrorist operations in Turkey as punishment for consenting to the installation of a US radar station on its soil for the NATO shield against incoming Iranian missile attacks, in defiance of Iran's warnings. The Erdogan government is also being penalized for actively supporting Syrian resistance to the Assad regime, especially the Free Syrian Army-SFA. イランのトルコへの攻撃はイランの中東地域の攻撃の最初のものでトルコがNATO(米軍)によるイランのミサイル監視のための レーダー設置を行うことへの反撃であると考えられる。トルコ政府はシリアの反政府組織、特にFSAを支持していることも理由の 一つである。
When Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani visited Ankara Jan. 12, he delivered a last warning to the Turkish government to desist from both steps, although the visit was officially billed as focusing on the resumption of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the five powers plus Germany. Larijani's talks clearly ended in disagreement, judging by his parting shot: “We've got our ways of doing things.” イラン国会議長のAli Larijani が1月12日にアンカラを訪問しトルコ政府に最終的警告を与えた。この訪問は公的にはイランとP5+1 の間の核開発問題の調停の可能性を議論するものとされたが、彼の訪問は明らかに決裂に終わった。
A senior counterterrorism source told DEBKAfile sources on Wednesday, Jan. 18 that the Iranians are setting Turkey up as an example to show the US and their Middle East antagonists what they can expect when Tehran lets the Al Qods Brigades loose against them. According to the information relayed to Washington by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, Al Qods has been placed on the ready for action, such as blowing up oil fields, oil pipelines and oil export terminals. Some of its cells are already present among the two countries' Shiite populations in the guise of longtime Saudi and Kuwaiti nationals of Iranian descent; others to be dropped by sea on the Saudi and Kuwaiti coasts. トルコへのAl Qodsのテロは米国と中東諸国にイランの反撃能力を示すための最初の例にする意図があると見られる。Al Qodsの テロ攻撃は石油施設の爆破、パイプラインや石油積み出し港への攻撃などが想定される。既に彼らは中東諸国の国内のシーア派 と連携していたりサウジアラビアやクエートの海岸に上陸していたりする。
●A Return to Populism and Nationalism ポピュリズムとナショナリズムの回帰 ●'A Real Problem' ●The Poorest Members of the EU
Polls reveal a climate of hate spawned by the right-wing nationalist and extremist discourse of the last few years. For example, nearly two-thirds of Hungarians believe that the influence of Jews is too great in their economy, and that the Roma have a genetic predisposition towards criminality. Among the hated "foreigners" in Hungary are also the "Piresians," a people that have only existed in the country since 2006. Budapest pollster Tarki invented them as a control variable to measure racism and xenophobia in the country. ハンガリーなどに顕著に見られる、外国人嫌悪、レーシズム、ロマ人嫌悪、ユダヤ人嫌悪などが2006年以降に急増している
It is these private bondholders that must now be brought on board for a negotiated settlement if the Greek government is to succeed in its goal of a “voluntary” debt swap on its full borrowings and avoid a default. “The [expected] agreement is a short-term fix. The market will be happy with it for a few days or a week but then we run into the hard stuff,” said an executive at one multibillion-dollar hedge fund that owns Greek bonds and has not been party to the negotiations. “The hard part is going to be getting the rest of the bondholders [outside the creditor committee] to agree.” Even members of the committee concede the process is unlikely to succeed in time for the crunch date: a ?14.5bn bond repayment falling due on March 20. ギリシャ政府がデフォルトを避けるために、目的とする「自主的な合意」の国債スワップの成功のためには民間債権者が交渉に 参加する必要がある。あるギリシャ国債を保有するヘッジファンドの経営幹部は「ギリシャの交渉が成立しても短期間の歯止め にしかならないだろう。市場はその結果を数日間、あるいは1週間は歓迎するかも知れないが、そのあとで厳しい時期がやって来 る」という。この幹部はギリシャの債務交渉に参加していない。「厳しい問題とういのは債券交渉団以外の国債保有者を合意さ せることだ」債券交渉団のメンバーでさえ、プロセスが3月20日の14.5Bユーロの支払期日までに成功しそうにないとしている。
“As a firm we are not convinced that any deal today is the last deal,” said Robert Rauch, director of research at the $2.7bn hedge fund Gramercy, which led negotiations for bondholders in the restructuring of Argentina’s debt in 2007. “This is a multiplayer negotiation and not all the players are even at the table.” Gramercy is one of numerous hedge funds that say they have avoided buying into Greek debt ? even though it has been trading at huge discounts in recent months ? because they still do not see it as cheap enough. “The eventual solution for Greece is at least two, three if not four years off and will involve two, maybe several, rounds of haircuts to get to something final,” said Mr Rauch. ヘッジファンドGramercyの研究部長のRobert Rauchは「我々の会社は現在のギリシャの債務交渉が最後のものと思っていない」と いう。「交渉には多くのプレーアーがいて、全てのプレーアーが今参加しているわけではない」Gramercyはかってアルゼンチンと の債務リストラ交渉を国債保有者側で指導している。Gramercyはギリシャ国債を買ってはいない。まだ充分に安くなっていないか らだという。「ギリシャの債務交渉の決着には、いずれ、2、3あるいは4年を要するだろう。恐らく2回或いはそれ以上のヘアカッ トが最終決着のために必要だろう」
Insurance companies in particular, bank traders note, were buyers of Greek CDS in an effort to try to hedge their exposures last year and now are likely have little incentive to stomach a painful debt swap. “There isn’t much of a reason for anyone to agree to the terms precisely because of the threat of CAC clauses,” said a fund manager who owns Greek debt. “If people think they are going to get forced into a deal anyway, then why agree to the terms before you have to? Especially if by not doing so you can trigger your CDS.” 保険会社などは昨年、ギリシャ国債のヘッジのためCDSを買っているという。このため彼らは債務スワップに応じるインセンティブ が殆ど無い。「CAC条項のために現在の条件で交渉に合意すべき理由はあまり存在しない」とギリシャ国債を保有するファンドマネ ージャーがいう「もしも交渉条件に強制的に従わされるのであれば、今交渉に合意すべき必要はない。合意せずにCDSトリガーをま つ事ができる」
As the Emerging Sovereign Group, a $1bn hedge fund owned by US private equity giant Carlyle, told its clients last year, European politicians have opened a “Pandora’s box” that now looks likely to lead to a “repricing of sovereign default risk across the euro area”. アメリカのプライベート・エクイティの大手カーライルのエマージング・ソブリングループは昨年、顧客に向けて欧州の政治家は パンドラの箱を開けたと述べた。そのパンドラの箱というのは今では「ユーロ圏のソブリン・デフォルト・リスクのリプライシン グ」にむかうもの、と読むことが出来よう。
President Obama opens his re-election bid facing significant obstacles among independent voters, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, with the critical piece of the electorate that cemented his victory four years ago open to denying him a second term. New York Times/CBS Newsの世論調査に依れば4年前とは異なって無党派層の有権者についてオバマ大統領の脆弱性が明らかになった。
The swing voters who will play a pivotal role in determining his political fate are up for grabs, the poll found, with just 31 percent expressing a favorable opinion of Mr. Obama. Two-thirds of independent voters say he has not made real progress fixing the economy. 無党派のスイング・ボーターの動向は、大統領選挙において最終結果を決める重要な役割を果たすが、世論調査の結果では、これら スイング・ボーターは31%がオバマ大統領に好意的であるものの、三分の二の無党派層はオバマ大統領が経済回復に充分な役割を果 たしていないと批判的な解答をしている。(後略)
【ワシントン=山口香子】パネッタ米国防長官は18日の記者会見で、イランが米国の経済制裁強化に反発してホルムズ海峡の 封鎖に言及していることについて、「地域への脅威に対して、必要ならば軍事的に対応する用意があると明確にしてきた」と述 べた。 イランが海峡封鎖を実行すれば、軍事行動を取る方針を改めて明言した。 長官はさらに、封鎖された場合、湾岸地域に現在配備されている米軍の戦力で、「完全に対応することができる」と述べ、米軍 が最近、湾岸地域の戦力を増強しているとの見方を否定した。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://thehill.com/blogs/defcon-hill/operations/204911-panetta-us-fully-prepared-to-deal-with-iran-militarily Panetta warns US is ‘fully prepared’ to deal with Iran militarily if necessary By Jeremy Herb - 01/18/12 03:36 PM ET
“It’s always an option to try to be able to pursue diplomacy, making very clear that in order for that to work it takes two to be able to engage,” Panetta said.
Experts say Iran would be committing economic suicide if it actually tried to close the strait, as Iran’s economy depends on its oil exports. But should Iran take that step, Panetta said Wednesday: “We’ll also be prepared to respond militarily if we have to.” ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.smh.com.au/world/iran-supplied-weapons-to-syria-20120119-1q8cf.html Iran supplied weapons to Syria Damien McElroy, London January 20, 2012 英国のキャメロン首相、イランがシリア政府に武器供与しトルコが此れを阻止したと暴露してイランを非難 SMH
BRITISH Prime Minister David Cameron has accused the Iranian regime of supplying weapons for the Syrian onslaught on democracy protests as Russia's Foreign Minister warned that the West was set on a path to war with Tehran. Mr Cameron disclosed that British officials had been told weapons shipments from Iran to Syria had been intercepted by Turkey and that intelligence reports confirmed Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese movement, was actively involved in the slaughter in Syria. ロシア外相が西欧諸国がイランに戦争を仕掛けていると非難したことに対抗し、英国のキャメロン首相はイランがシリアのアサド 政権に武器を供与し、トルコが輸送を阻止したと暴露してイランを非難した。またイランの支援するレバノンのヒズボラ勢力がシ リアの内紛に積極的に関与しているとの諜報情報を明らかにした。国会の下院で此れを言及。 (*:先にDEBKAの書いていた内容が確認された)
If Tehran cracks under the pressure of economic sanctions and military threats, Damascus could fall By Patrick Seale, Special to Gulf NewsPublished: 00:00 January 20, 2012 もし、イランが西欧の経済制裁と軍事的圧力に屈するならば、シリアのアサド政権は崩壊するだろう