これは英・ガーディアンに掲載された、ちょっと興味の評論 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jan/06/eurozone-germany-ordoliberalism The eurozone will pay a high price for Germany's economic narcissism Angela Merkel's pursuit of the stability culture espoused by 'ordoliberalism' leaves deficit economies facing greater austerity Hans Kundnani guardian.co.uk, Friday 6 January 2012 14.30 ユーロ圏諸国は、ドイツの経済的ナルシシズムの、高い代償を支払うことであろう Hans Kundnani ガーディアン 6日
The ordoliberals (sometimes called neoliberals) had in mind both the failure of the Weimar Republic on the one hand and Nazism (to which Eucken was opposed) and communism on the other. Thus while they believed in greater state interference in the market than classical Anglo-Saxon liberals (in particular to prevent the emergence of monopolies and oligopolies), they believed in less interference than Keynesians. For example, ordoliberals staunchly oppose expansionary fiscal and monetary policy during an economic downturn. ドイツ流ネオリベのordoliberalというのは、ワイマール共和国やナチスの失敗、また一方に共産主義を見て、市場に対する より大きな政府の干渉が、古典的なアングロ・サクソン流のリベラルのいうよりも必要と考えるがケインジアンよりは少ない 干渉であるべきとする。ordoliberalsは断固として経済低迷時の拡大的な財政支出やマネタリ政策に反対する
Although ordoliberalism is little known elsewhere, it is hugely influential in Germany, particularly on the centre -right. It is seen as the basis for the post-war "social market economy" and the "economic miracle" it created in the Federal Republic in the 1950s. Merkel's economic advisers are deeply influenced by ordoliberal ideas ? particularly on the role of the European Central Bank. To them, the role of a central bank is above all to maintain price stability ? and thus promote growth only indirectly ? rather than intervening to expand the money supply as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have done in the past few years. ordoliberalismは他国ではよく知られていないが、ドイツ国内で大いに影響力を持ち、特に中道右派に対してそうである。 それは第二次大戦後の「社会市場主義経済」と1950年代の「経済的奇跡」の基礎とされている。メルケル首相の経済アドバイザー 達はordoliberalismに強く影響を受け、特にECBに対する考え方がそうである。彼らにとってECBのあり方とは何よりも価格 安定性を優先すべきものである。それ故、ECBはFRBやBoEとは異なって、経済成長促進のためにマネーサプライの拡大に直接 的に介入するのではなく、間接的にのみ関与すべきものとする。
However, ordoliberalism is predominantly a theory about how to make a national economy work efficiently rather than about how to organise the global economy or create a single currency zone. It therefore doesn't help much in the current context, in which imbalances between eurozone economies are a key problem. As a result, few mainstream German economists accept the idea that Germany's surpluses ? themselves, in part, the result of the euro ? are the flipside of other countries' deficits and therefore part of the problem. Instead, they see surpluses simply as the product of good economic management.
Germany's hawkishness on inflation means it has no solution for deficit economies except ever greater austerity ? even where, as in the case of Spain, the crisis was not caused by excessive sovereign debt. In this context, German conservative economic thinking is almost indistinguishable in practice from that of the American or British right. In fact, Germans seem almost to espouse a kind of European version of "trickle down" economics: growth, they suggest, will eventually flow downwards from the top to the bottom of the eurozone.
It may be that the euro is a failed experiment, as Harvard economist Martin Feldstein has recently argued. But even if the European single currency survives, Germany's economic narcissism means the rest of the eurozone is likely to pay a high price for it over the next decade.
Obstacle 1: Wind energy is dependent on large subsidies. 風力発電は政府の支援金に大きく依存する According to the EIA’s report, Direct Federal Financial Interventions and Subsidies in Energy in Fiscal Year 2010, wind energy received subsidies of $4.986 billion from the federal government for Fiscal Year 2010. This amount is equal to approximately half the cost of new wind power installed during that period. State and local subsidies would be in addition.
Obstacle 2: Wind energy is of a lower quality than electricity produced by fossil fuels and by nuclear energy. 風力発電は、出力変動など電力の質が低く、火力や原子力の代替えになれず、基礎電力になりえない
一覧表:エネルギーソース別発電コスト ttp://www.oilprice.com/uploads/AD68.png Because of the lower quality of wind, Figure 4 represents an “apples to oranges” comparison, if one makes the standard comparison of amounts in the last column. Instead, since wind energy only replaces fuel, what needs to be compared is
? “Total System Levelized Cost” for wind relative to ? “Variable O&M (including fuel)” for other sources of production
Obstacle 3: Natural gas is now very cheap in the US, and there is a huge amount of natural gas generating capacity already built. 天然ガスの価格が安く、天然ガスル用の発電施設の建設が急速に進んでいるので(政府支援の大きいい非効率な)風力発電 のメリットは少ない
Obstacle 4: In the US, we do not have an electrical grid that can provide very much long distance transport of electricity, and there are several reasons why changing this situation is very difficult. 風力発電の適地は屡々遠隔地であり、長距離送電施設を必要とするがアメリカはその種の長距離送電をもたず、近未来にそれ が実現する見込みもない
Obstacle 5: A high proportion of funding for wind energy is up front.
Obstacle 6: Adding wind energy to the electric grid adds complexity which may be difficult to manage with declining resources. 風力発電の出力変動の安定化の必要性は送配電システムの管理に新たな問題を呼びよせる
There are so many obstacles for wind to overcome in the US that I am not sure that we should even try to push for higher wind penetration levels. The only exception might be in areas where wind energy is cheap to produce and the grid can readily accept the electricity.
国務省ファイル ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2012/01/180203.htm Remarks Upon Arrival at Haneda Airport Kurt M. Campbell Assistant Secretary, Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs Tokyo, Japan January 6, 2012
ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2012/01/180202.htm Remarks to the Media at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Kurt M. Campbell Assistant Secretary, Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs Tokyo, Japan January 6, 2012
Tehran’s defence minister announced on Friday that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps will hold large-scale exercises in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf next month. イラン国防省は金曜日に革命防衛隊による大規模なペルシャ湾とホルムズ海峡での軍事演習を来月に実施と発表
The Iranian announcement came as it emerged that the US and Israel are gearing up for a major missile defence exercise in the next few weeks. The drill, called “Austere Challenge 12”, is designed to improve defence systems and co-operation between the US and Israeli forces. According to an Israeli official cited by the Associated Press, the drill will test multiple Israeli and US air defence systems against incoming missiles and rockets. Israel has deployed the “Arrow” system, which was jointly developed and funded with the US and is designed to intercept Iranian missiles in the stratosphere, far from Israel. イランの発表はイスラエルとアメリカが今後数週間に実施を予定しているMD軍事演習「厳格なる挑戦12」に対抗したもの。 イスラエルはこの演習でアロー・システムを動員しミサイルのインターセプト演習を行う。
Most defence experts believe it is highly unlikely that Iran will act on a threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s major sea lanes for the oil trade. However, many experts are concerned that the amount of military activity in the region could lead to an incident that triggers a conflict. ほとんどの軍事専門家はイランがホルムズ海峡封鎖に踏み切るとは見ていない。しかし軍事行動の高まりによる同地域での 偶発事故の発生を憂慮している。
>>61 その時のFTの社説、民主党の経済政策 Published: August 17 2009 19:28
ttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d7b18e78-8b59-11de-9f50-00144feabdc0.html Yet much of the DPJ’s economic programme remains sketchy, improbable or downright unrealistic. 日本の民主党の経済政策は詳細を欠いており、ありそうにない事や、全くリアリスティックでは無い項目が有る。 The money it is promising to shower on low-income families, parents, farmers (and anyone else who might vote for it) is meant to come from pruning waste. But, with election pledges costing around 3.5 per cent of GDP, that is fantasy. 民主党が低所得者層や子持ちの家族や農家にバラ撒きを約束している予算は、無駄の切り詰めによって調達するという。 しかしその総額はGDPの3.5%で、そういうことはファンタジーというべきである。
これはイスラエル系のDEBKAの記事で、内容を検証する他メディアの記事は(今の所)見当たらない。DEBKA特有のプロ・イス ラエルのバイアスはあるので、それを承知して見ておくべきもの。 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.debka.com/article/21629/ Thousands of US troops land in Israel. Aircraft carrier coming soon DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 6, 2012, 6:41 PM (GMT+02:00) 数千人の米軍兵士がイスラエルに到着、空母も間もなく参加予定 DEBKA 6日
Thousands of US troops began descending on Israel this week. Senior US military sources told DEBKAfile Friday, Jan. 6 that many would be staying up to the end of the year as part of the US-IDF deployment in readiness for a military engagement with Iran and its possible escalation into a regional conflict. They will be joined by a US aircraft carrier. The warplanes on its decks will fly missions with Israeli Air Force jets. The 9,000 US servicemen gathering in Israel in the coming weeks are mostly airmen, missile interceptor teams, marines, seamen, technicians and intelligence officers. 今週になって数千人の米兵がイスラエルに到着し始めている。米軍のシニアソースが明かした。多くの兵士が今年末までイスラエル に滞在する。これはイランの脅威と中東地域の紛争に備えたもの。米軍の空母も、近く参加の予定である。来週には9000人の米国 空軍のサービスマンが到着し、それは多くが空軍の関連で、ミサイル・インターセプト・チーム、海兵隊、海軍兵士、テクニシャン、 諜報担当などを含む。
The incoming American soldiers are officially categorized as participants in Austere Challenge 12, the biggest joint US-Israeli war game ever held. The maneuver was originally designated Juniper Stallion 2012. However, the altered name plus the comment heard from the exercise's commander, US Third Air Force Lt. Gen. Frank Gorenc, during his visit two weeks ago, that the coming event is more a "deployment" than an "exercise," confirmed that Washington has expanded its mission. The joint force will now be in place ready for a decision to attack Iran's nuclear installations or any war emergency. これらのイスラエル来訪の米軍兵士は公的には米国とイスラエルの合同軍事演習である「厳格な挑戦12」の参加者とされている。 これは以前には「ジュピーターの馬2012」演習計画であったものだが米国のFrank Gorenc中将に依れば「演習」と言うよりも 「配備」に重点が置かれているという。イスラエルと米軍の合同チームは非常事態対応やイランの核施設への攻撃の場合に備える。
Our sources disclose that it was decided at the last minute in Washington and Jerusalem to announce the forthcoming Austere Challenge 12 on Thursday night, Jan. 5, ahead of the bulletin released by Tehran about another Iranian naval exercise at the Strait of Hormuz to take place in February, although its 10-day drill in the same arena only ended Monday, Jan. 2. 米国とイスラエルはイランのホルムズ海峡軍事演習に際して1月5日に急遽、合同チームについての最終決定をしたという。
The early release was decided in consultations among US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and the two army chiefs, US Gen. Martin Dempsey and Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz. British Defense Minister Phillip Hammond, on a visit to Washington, was brought into the discussion. この決定は米国のパネッタ国防長官、イスラエルのバラク防衛長官と二人の軍トップ、米国のMartin Dempsey大将とBenny Gantz中将 が関わっている。英国のハモンド防衛大臣もワシントン訪問中で議論に参加している。
The handout circulated to US correspondents from Hammond's talks in the US capital affirmed that Britain stands ready to strike Iran if the Strait of Hormuz is closed. However, that phrase was omitted from the British minister's remarks at a news conference, following a last-minute request from Panetta, signifying the Obama administration's interest of keeping a low profile on plans for attacking Iran. 米国内で回覧されたハモンド防衛大臣の会談メモではホルムズ海峡封鎖の場合は英国もイラン攻撃の準備があるとしていたが、記者 会見ではこの部分は削除された。削除はパネッタ国防長官の要請で、オバマ政権はイラン攻撃計画についてロープロファイルの状態 を保ちたい狙いがある。
Tehran too is walking a taut tightrope. It is staging military's maneuvers every few days to assuring the Iranian people that its leaders are fully prepared to defend the country against an American or Israeli strike on its national nuclear program. By this stratagem, Iran's ground, sea and air forces are maintained constantly at top war readiness to thwart any surprise attack. イラン政府もタイトロープを渡っていて、国内向けには軍事行動を誇示し、核施設経のイスラエルやアメリカからの攻撃に充分の備 えがあるとしている。イランの陸海空軍は突然の攻撃に備える戦闘準備を行なっている。
The joint US-Israeli drill will test multiple Israeli and US air defense systems against incoming missiles and rockets, according to the official communique. DEBKAfile's military sources add that they will also practice intercepting missiles and rockets coming in from Syria, Hizballah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. イスラエルと米国の合同演習はイランからのミサイルのインターセプト演習だが、我々のソースはこの演習がシリアやレバノンの ヒズボラ、ガザのハマスのからのミサイルやロケットのインターセプトにも備えたものという。
Washington and Jerusalem are doing their utmost to present a perfectly synchronized military front against Iran: American officers are stationed at IDF command centers and Israeli officers posted at the US European Command-EUCOM. At the same time, DEBKAfile's military sources disclose that full consensus has not been reached on every last particular of shared operation against Iran, should one go forward. イスラエルと米国はイランに対するシンクロした軍事的対応を見せている。アメリカの高官がイスラエル軍の指揮センターに常駐し イスラエル軍将校が米国欧州指揮所のEUCOMに駐在する。しかしながら、我々のソースはイラン対抗(攻撃)の必要の生じた場合の 合同軍自行動の詳細について完全な(米国とイスラエル間の)コンセンサスには達していないという。
何故、「アラブの春」は必然的にイスラミストの勝利をもたらすのか? について、John M. Owen IV
Political Islam, especially the strict version practiced by Salafists in Egypt, is thriving largely because it is tapping into ideological roots that were laid down long before the revolts began. Invented in the 1920s by the Muslim Brotherhood, kept alive by their many affiliates and offshoots, boosted by the failures of Nasserism and Baathism, allegedly bankrolled by Saudi and Qatari money, and inspired by the defiant example of revolutionary Iran, Islamism has for years provided a coherent narrative about what ails Muslim societies and where the cure lies. Far from rendering Islamism unnecessary, as some experts forecast, the Arab Spring has increased its credibility; Islamists, after all, have long condemned these corrupt regimes as destined to fail.
Liberalism in 19th-century Europe, and Islamism in the Arab world today, are like channels dug by one generation of activists and kept open, sometimes quietly, by future ones. When the storms of revolution arrive, whether in Europe or the Middle East, the waters will find those channels. Islamism is winning out because it is the deepest and widest channel into which today’s Arab discontent can flow. ttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/07/opinion/why-islamism-is-winning.html?_r=2
英・エコノミストの2012世界経済予測、たいへんネガティブ。もっともエコノミストも、この10年くらいで だいぶ質が落ちてきているけれど ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.economist.com/node/21542411 The world economy:Self-induced sluggishness This year will probably be a pretty bad one for the world economy; it doesn’t have to be Jan 7th 2012 | from the print edition
The euro zone is thus the darkest shadow hanging over the world economy; but it is not the only one. Emerging markets may stumble. China’s economy is clearly cooling. And even if, as seems likely, Beijing loosens macroeconomic policy deftly enough to prevent a sharp slowdown, growth this year is likely to be no more than 8%. Slower growth in China is dampening commodity prices, hitting exporters in Latin America. Add in some home-grown problems (India, for example, faces a big budget deficit, declining confidence and high inflation?see article) and the ripple effects of the euro crisis (which will hit growth in eastern Europe and Turkey hard) and it is plausible that emerging economies will grow by only about 5%. That would be their weakest performance in a decade, aside from the global slump of 2009.
WASHINGTON: The United States will respond if Iran tries to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the Gulf, US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta warned on Sunday, saying such a move would cross a “red line.” “We made very clear that the United States will not tolerate the blocking of the Straits of Hormuz,” Panetta told CBS television. “That’s another red line for us and that we will respond to them.”
Panetta was seconded by General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who said Iran has the means to close the waterway, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil passes. “But we would take action and reopen the Straits,” the general said on the same show, “Face the Nation.” ttp://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012%5C01%5C09%5Cstory_9-1-2012_pg7_9
ホルムズ海峡関連の軍事状況、イスラエル系のDEBKAの記事 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.debka.com/article/21633/ Russian, French warships off Syria, Iran, US drones over Iranian coast DEBKAfile Special Report January 9, 2012, 10:21 AM (GMT+02:00) ロシアとフランスの戦艦がシリア、イラン近辺に動員され、米軍のグローバルホークはイラン海岸を偵察自行 DEBKA、9日
US, Russian French and British air and naval forces streamed to the Syrian and Iranian coasts over the weekend on guard for fresh developments at the two Middle East flashpoints. The Russian carrier Admiral Kuznetsov anchored earlier than planned at Syria's Tartus port on the Mediterranean Sunday, Jan. 8, arriving together with the destroyer Admiral Chabanenko and frigate Yaroslav Mudry. To counter this movement, France consigned an air defense destroyer Forbin to the waters off Tartus. 週末にかけて、フランス、ロシア、アメリカの各国海軍がシリアとイランの近海に動員されている。中東の危険地域での新たな衝突 に備えたもので、ロシアのAdmiral Kuznetsov空母はシリアのTartus港に予定を速めて日曜日に到着、駆逐艦のAdmiral Chabanenkoと フリゲート艦のYaroslav Mudryを伴っている。このロシア(=シリア政府支持勢力)の動きに対抗してフランスは対空駆逐艦 Forbin を Tartus港沖合に送っている。
DEBKAfile's military sources report a buildup in the last 48 hours of western naval forces opposite Iran in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea in readiness for Tehran to carry out its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. Britain has dispatched the HMS Daring, a Type 45 destroyer armed with new technology for shooting down missiles, to the Sea of Oman, due to arrive at the same time as the French Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier. 過去48時間に西側諸国はペルシャ湾とアラビア海に海軍力を増強しており、これはイランがホルムズ海峡封鎖を示唆していることから も起こっている。英国は45型駆逐艦のHMS Daringをオマーン海送っているが、この艦船はミサイルを撃ち落とす新テクノロジーを備 えている。フランスのシャルル・ドゴール空母も同海に向かっている。
Our sources report too that Saturday, the giant RQ-4 Global Hawk UAV, took off from the USS Stenning aircraft carrier for surveillance over the coasts of Iran. The Stennis and its strike group are cruising in the Sea of Oman at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz after Tehran announced it would not be allowed to cross through. This was the first time the US has deployed unmanned aerial vehicles over Iran since its RQ-170 stealth drone was shot down by Iran on Dec. 4. It was also the first time the huge drone was ordered to take off from an aircraft carrier for a Broad Aerial Maritime Surveillance Mission (BAMS). US military sources reported Monday, Jan. 9 that the Global Hawk's mission is "to monitor sea traffic off the Iranian coast and the Straits of Hormuz." The US Navy was ordered to maintain a watch on this traffic, another first, after Iranian Navy chief Adm. Habibollah Sayyari said in a televised broadcast Sunday night that the Strait of Hormuz was under full Iranian control and had been for years. 米軍の大型無人偵察機RQ-4グローバルホークが土曜日に、USS Stenning空母から発進してイラン海岸の偵察行動についている。 USS Stenning空母の艦隊はオマーン海を航行しホルムズ海峡の入り口に近づいている。先にステルス無人偵察機のRQ-170がイランに 捕獲されて以来、米軍が無人偵察機を使うのは土曜日が最初である。空母から大型無人偵察機が発進して広域の海域サーベイランス ミッションにつくのも初めてのことである。グローバルホークのミッションは米軍に依れば「ホルムズ海峡とイラン沖合の海上交通 をモニターすること」である。
Also Sunday, Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the US Chiefs of Staff, warned in no uncertain terms that Iran has the ability to block the Strait of Hormuz “for a period of time.” He added in a CBS interview: “We’ve invested in capabilities to ensure that if that happens, we can defeat that.” Gen. Dempsey went on to emphasize: "Yes, they can block it. We've described that as an intolerable act and it's not just intolerable for us, it's intolerable to the world. But we would take action and reopen the straits." 米軍参謀本部議長のMartin Dempseyは_CBSのインタビューに答えて「イランはホルムズ海峡を、短時間なら封鎖できる」と述べてい る。「我々は封鎖が起こればそれを解除させるにたる軍事力を準備している」「イランは海峡の交通をブロックできるが、我々はそれ を許容しない。封鎖が起これば、我々は海峡の再開のための(軍事)行動を取る」
Appearing on the same program, US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta warned of a quick, decisive and very tough American response to any Iranian attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. CBSの番組中でパネッタ国防長官はイランがホルムズ海峡を封鎖すれば断固として即時に、強固かつ明白な(軍事)行動を取ると述べた。
They both spoke a few hours after a spokesman for the Revolutionary Guards said the supreme Iranian leadership had ruled the Strait must be closed in the event of an oil embargo imposed on Iran by the European Union. DEBKAfile's military sources report the constant escalation of military tension around Iran and Syria in recent days as not just stemming from the rapid advances Iran is making toward production of a nuclear weapon, but from fears in the West and Israel that Tehran and Damascus are in step over their military plans for the Persian Gulf and Mediterranean sectors. シリアとイランを囲む軍事的緊張の高まりはイランの核開発問題だけでなく、シリア紛争に関連してイランとシリアがペルシャ湾と 地中海に軍事的行動を計画していることにもよるとされる
After the Admiral Kuznetsov docked in Tartus Sunday with much fanfare, the Syrian Navy commander Dawoud Rajha was received on the deck by a guard of honor of marines under a flyover of Russian Su-33 and Su-25 fighter-bombers. This was taken as a signal of Moscow's willingness to back the Assad regime up against any Western military intervention as well as a gesture of support for cooperation between Syria and Iran in their operational plans. ロシアのAdmiral Kuznetsov空母がシリアのTartus港に寄港した時には、シリア海軍指揮官の Dawoud Rajhaはデッキで此れを迎え、 ロシアのSu-33 と Su-25戦闘機が空を舞った。これはロシア政府が西側のアサド政権への干渉に反対するという意思表示であり、 ロシアのイランやシリアへの支持を示している。
Sunday, the Iranian media issued divergent statements about the situation at Iran's underground uranium enrichment plant at Fordo, near Qom: In English, the site as described as going on stream soon, while the Farsi media reported it was already operational. 日曜日にイランのメディアはQom近郊のFordoに作られた地下工場のウラン濃縮設備について報じている。Farsi語(ペルシャ語)の メディアは工場は稼働中としているが英語メディアは工場が間もなく稼働と書いている。
The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization Fereydoun Abbasi Davani declared furthermore," …the Islamic Republic is capable of exporting services related to nuclear energy to other countries." This statement showed that Tehran has no fear of raising the level of its threats to the West up to the point of offering to hand out its nuclear technology to other countries in a gesture of uncontrolled proliferation. イランのIAEAのトップである Fereydoun Abbasi Davaniは「イランは核エネルギー関連のサービスを外国に輸出可能」と宣言してい る。この宣言はイランが核開発関連の緊張を西側諸国との間で高めることに吝かではないと示唆している。
A large Russian naval flotilla led by an aircraft carrier has docked in the Syrian port of Tartus in what Damascus state media hailed on Sunday as a show of solidarity by close ally Moscow. The six-day port call by the carrier group in the Mediterranean port where Russia has a recently expanded naval base is intended to boost ties at a time when President Bashar al-Assad’s government is under mounting Western and Arab pressure over its bloody crackdown on dissent, the Syrian press said. “The port call is aimed at bringing the two countries closer together and strengthening their ties of friendship,” the official SANA news agency quoted a Russian naval officer it named as Yakushin Vladimir Anatolievich as saying.(ry
ttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/09/iran_s_kamikaze_hormuz_threat Iran’s Kamikaze Hormuz Threat Will Tehran really shut off one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints? Only if it is truly desperate BY AFSHON OSTOVAR | JANUARY 9, 2012 イランのホルムズ海峡封鎖というカミカゼ攻撃の脅威:イランは本当に世界最重要の海運の難所を攻撃するのか? 彼らが本当に絶望的な捨て身になれば、あるいは? BY AFSHON OSTOVAR
Gulf waters in a conflict scenario. Admiral Ali Fadavi, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards' navy, recently pointed to Iran's naval engagements during the so-called "tanker war" of the 1980s as proof that its forces could be successful against the United States. Yet the historical record really holds the opposite to be true. Although Iranian forces were able to attack and damage civilian shipping vessels during that period, and obstruct maritime traffic with naval mines, they proved to be outmatched by the mostly defensive countermeasures of the United States. What is more, Iran was far more desperate during this period, and the tanker war was effectively the last gasp of Iranian military ambition during a nearly eight-year war with Iraq. The United States was also trying to limit its participation in the conflict, and did not deem Iran a big enough threat to enter into a full-scale war against it. イランの革命防衛隊海軍のAli Fadavi提督は1980年代のペルシャ湾封鎖の事例を上げてイランがアメリカ軍に対抗できるという。 しかし現実の歴史はそうではなくて、イランは当時、民間の商船を攻撃でき機雷による航路の妨害を行えたけれど米軍の主に防衛 的な圧倒的軍事力にマッチするものではなかった。当時のイランはより絶望的であり、80年代のタンカー戦争というのは8年近く続 いたイラン・イラク戦争の最後のあがきというべきものであった。当時の米軍は軍事介入を最小化しようとしていてイランに対して 戦争に至るような本格的な攻撃を行うことをしなかった
The situation is obviously very different today. Iran's domestic problems and the intense pressure of international sanctions appear to be rattling the nerves of Iran's decision-makers. The United States is leading the sanctions effort against Iran and has made clear that it will not allow it to develop a nuclear weapon. However, even now, when tensions are acute, an Iranian-initiated war looks like a distant possibility, as does a preemptive U.S. strike. Yet, as opportunities for compromise evaporate, and as relations continue to sour, the likelihood of war is steadily increasing. 当時と今日の状況は大きく異なる。イランの国内問題や国際社会からの圧力や制裁はイランの政策立案者を苛立たせているように見 える。アメリカの対イラン経済制裁の進め方はイランの原爆開発を容認しないという意思表示である。緊張が高まっている現在でさえ 戦争は遥かに遠いように見える。アメリカの先制攻撃の可能性も同じである。しかしながら妥協の可能性が消えてなくなってゆくの であれば、戦争の可能性は次第に増加する。
China bulls like to argue that, whatever the challenges facing the economy, the smart leadership in Beijing is capable of making tough decisions and getting things done. A financial-system-related meeting over the weekend, at which those leaders did neither, highlights the strain the country is coming under and the increasing difficulty Beijing faces in keeping policy on track.
The National Financial Work Conference, a once-every-five-years affair, ended with a whimper on Saturday. Past sessions had tackled endemic bad-loan problems in the banks, planned for overseas initial public offerings of big financial institutions, or even created a sovereign-wealth fund. On paper, this year's event also produced some important policy decisions: to make bank lending more market-oriented, work toward yuan convertibility and finally get a grip on mushrooming local-government debts. But then again, we've seen these New Year's resolutions before. Cynics are already questioning whether Beijing will?or rather, can?follow through this time.
Beijing's problem is that no matter how hard moving forward may be, standing still will be worse. Traditional export markets in the U.S. and Europe remain weak, and China is running out of firepower to stimulate the economy by building roads, bridges, tunnels and skyscrapers. Meanwhile, capital doesn't find its way to the small companies that ought to be powering growth and job creation. Inflation, while slowing somewhat, remains a concern after the 2009-10 credit binge. Households see their income diminished by artificially low interest rates on deposits, hindering a transition to domestic consumption.
It wasn’t supposed to happen this way. The biggest surprise for equity investors in 2011 was not the weakness of the crisis-ravaged European markets but the carnage in the stock markets of the emerging economies. Brazil, Russia, India and China did worse than Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain. As a group, they were down 26 per cent in US dollar terms versus a decline of 23 per cent for the bad boys of the eurozone. ・・・・ After the Asian crisis of the late 1990s, the stock markets of the emerging world were cheap and under-owned and their currencies super-competitive. The turbocharged ride of the past decade has left them over-owned and bubbly, while their competitive advantage has been eroded by inflation and currency appreciation. It will take another crisis before they become as compelling again.
ソニーは1月10日、米ラスベガスで開催される「2012 International CES」の展示概要を発表した。次世代のLEDディスプレイ 「Crystal LED Display」を参考展示するほか、裸眼立体視対応の液晶ディスプレイ、Google TVプラットフォーム採用のBD プレーヤーなども登場する。 Crystal LED Displayは、R(赤)、G(緑)、B(青)の微細なLEDを表示画素として利用する自発ディスプレイ。展示機は55V 型でフルHD解像度(1920×1080ピクセル)を持ち、高コントラスト、広色域、高速動画応答性能、広視野角といった特長があ る。公表されているスペックは、輝度が約400カンデラ、コントラストは測定限界値以上、色域はNTSC比100%以上、視野角は 180度。動画応答速度も、現行機(同サイズの液晶パネル)と比較して約10倍を実現したという。パネルモジュールとしての 消費電力は70ワット以下。
イランとラテン・アメリカの関係についての現状評論、フォーリンポリシー ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/09/caracas_or_bust?page=0,0 Caracas or Bust:Is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's latest tour of Latin America a waste of time? BY MICHAEL SHIFTER | JANUARY 9, 2012 アハマデネジャドのラテンアメリカ訪問は時間の無駄に終わるだろうか? BY MICHAEL SHIFTER フォーリン・ポリシー
It is notable that Brazil -- the region's economic and political powerhouse, which was part of Ahmadinejad's itinerary in November 2009 -- will not be included on this visit.
Still, while Brazil and other major Latin American countries are not extending Ahmadinejad much of a welcome, it is unlikely that they will vigorously enforce a tough sanctions regime led by Washington, which would divide the region between the few Chavez-led Iran allies and the majority of countries. Most countries do not want to jeopardize growing economic relationships with Iran (Brazil in particular has seen trade more than double since 2005).
But, it is not altogether clear what a more aggressive Iranian policy in Latin America would entail and what it could accomplish. There is a great deal of frustration and high levels of suspicion about Tehran's motives in the region, but no coherent alternative approach has been put forward
However reasonable the speculation and conjecture about Iran's intentions in Latin America, it remains largely just that.
*最近、徐々にではあるけれどアメリカ国内に対イラン強硬論が高まってきているように見えて、これはその一例。筆者は 前国防省スタッフ、現大学教授。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *この評論を含む、対イラン強硬論について、コメンタリーマガジンの記事、Max Boot ttp://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/01/09/case-for-force-against-iran/#more-780034 A Powerful Case for Force Against Iran Max Boot 01.09.2012 - 4:50 PM
これはまあ、ちょっと検証不可能のところもある記事なので、読みはするけれど留保扱いの・・ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.debka.com/article/21635/ Iran plans one-kiloton underground nuclear test in 2012 DEBKAfile Special Report January 10, 2012, 11:19 AM (GMT+02:00) イランは2012年内の地下核実験を予定している DEBKA 10日
According to DEBKAfile's Iranian sources, Tehran is preparing an underground test of a one-kiloton nuclear device during 2012, much like the test carried out by North Korea in 2006. Underground facilities are under construction in great secrecy behind the noise and fury raised by the start of advanced uranium enrichment at Iran's fortified, subterranean Fordo site near Qom. All the sanctions imposed so far for halting Iran's progress toward a nuclear weapon have had the reverse effect, stimulating rather than cooling its eagerness to acquire a bomb.
Yet, according to a scenario prepared by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University for the day after an Iranian nuclear weapons test, Israel was resigned to a nuclear Iran and the US would offer Israel a defense pact while urging Israel not to retaliate.
As quoted by the London Times Monday, Jan. 1, INSS experts, headed by Gen. (ret.) Giora Eiland, a former head of Israel's National Security Council, deduced from a simulation study they staged last week that. Their conclusion is that neither the US nor Israel will use force to stop Iran's first nuclear test which they predicted would take place in January 2013. Our Iranian sources stress, however, that Tehran does not intend to wait for the next swearing-in of a US president in January 2013, whether Barack Obama is returned for a second term or replaced by a Republican figure, before moving on to a nuclear test.(ry
DUBAI: Iran is jamming broadcasts by Qatar-based news channel Al-Jazeera, satellite operator Arabsat said in a statement received on Tuesday. "Al-Jazeera is affected... from two different locations in Iran," near Tehran and near the northwestern city of Maragheh, it said, adding that the cause was located at the request of the pan-Arab news channel. "Over the past few months, Al-Jazeera has faced sustained interference to our satellite transmissions," it said in a statement. "These occurrences will only strengthen our commitment to continue providing our award-winning coverage across the region 24 hours a day, seven days a week," said the broadcaster.(ry
Mohammed El-Erian has penned a few thoughts about Germany’s negative yielding bubill auction and indentifies ? quite rightly ? that there are major risks associated with this precedent. Ultimately, as FT Alphaville has also argued, a negative yielding regime of this sort could bring about exactly the sort of voluntary capital destruction conditions that turned the 1930s crisis into a depression. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PIMCOのMohammed El-Erianの書いている関連評論というのは ttp://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2012/01/10/germany-should-beware-of-celebrating-negative-yields/#axzz1j2zycyz3 Germany should beware of celebrating negative yields Mohamed El-Erian January 10, 2012
Rather than welcome negative yields, Germany should interpret the outcome of Monday’s auction as further indication of the gravity of the situation facing the eurozone as a whole. It is another alarm bell calling for more forceful steps to improve the region’s policy mix, counter banking fragility, and strengthen the institutional underpinning of a “refounded” Europe.
ttp://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/report-tehran-car-bomb-kills-iranian-nuclear-scientist-1.406676 According to the semi-official Fars news agency, Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, 32, supervised a department at Natanz uranium enrichment facility in Isfahan province. Deputy Governor Safarali Baratloo blamed Israel for the bombing, saying it was similar to ones targeting nuclear scientists a year ago. "The bomb was a magnetic one and the same as the ones previously used for the assassination of the scientists, and is the work of the Zionists [Israelis]" Fars quoted Baratloo as saying. The attack coincided with the second anniversary of a explosion that killed senior Iranian nuclear scientist Majid Shahriari. Several Iranian nuclear scientists have been assassinated in recent years. Tehran has blamed the killings on Israel and the U.S. Both countries deny the accusations.
テヘランの車爆発で死亡した核科学者はMostafa Ahmadi-Roshan、32歳、Natanzのウラン濃縮施設を監督していた。 テヘランの副市長、Safarali Baratlooは、此れはイスラエルの攻撃であるとして非難し、「犯行に使用された爆 発物は、以前に科学者の殺戮に使われたものと同じだ、此れはシオニストの犯行だ」と述べた。2年前には核科学 者のMajid Shahriariが爆発物によって死亡している。 (イスラエル、ハーレツ) Report: Tehran car bomb kills Iranian nuclear scientist
>>727 Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Italy faces a "significant chance" of a downgrade by Fitch Ratings, which is reviewing all European sovereigns and will make a decision by the end of the month. "Taking out the crisis premium means a credible firewall," David Riley, head of the sovereign-debt unit at Fitch, said at a conference today in London. "At the moment, we don't have that, and that's a serious concern with respect to Italy," he said. Speaking on the sidelines of the conference, Riley also said France will probably retain its credit rating unless the European debt crisis worsens.
Riley said that the IMF's program for Greece "doesn't seem to be working." Greek creditors agreed to a 50 percent writedown on their debt holdings last year as part of a new bailout package for the country. Greece's economy "is contracting," while the point of the bailout program was to promote growth, he said. Ireland, which also received a bailout, "has been more favorably viewed" as "people can actually see that potentially Ireland can grow its way out of this crisis," he said. ttp://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/01/10/bloomberg_articlesLXKXU26KLVR7.DTL#ixzz1j8l0LvIM
"I withdrew because I found myself serving the (Syrian) regime," says Arab League observer Anwar Malek. BEIRUT - An Arab League observer has left Syria, saying he had witnessed "scenes of horror" that he was powerless to prevent and that the Arab monitoring team sent to the country was not acting independently. アラブ同盟のシリア・オブザーバーのAnwar Malekはシリアを離れた。「撤退するのは、シリア内での行動がシリア政権に利する 事になるためだ」シリア国内での「恐怖に満ちたシーン」を目撃したと述べ、オブザーバーはそれを阻止する力がないとした。
"How was I serving the regime? I was giving the regime a greater chance to continue its killing and I could not prevent that," the Algerian said in an interview at Al Jazeera's headquarters in Qatar. 「我々がシリア国内にとどまればアサド政権が殺戮を続けるチャンスは高まる。私はそれを阻止できない」
The Arab League monitoring mission, now about 165 strong, began work on December 26. Its task is to verify if Syria is complying with an agreement to halt a crackdown on 10 months of protests against Syrian President Bashar Assad in which the United Nations says more than 5,000 people have been killed. Asked why he had quit, Malek said: "The most important thing is to have human feelings of humanity. I spent more than 15 days in Homs... I saw scenes of horror, burnt bodies... I cannot leave behind my humanity in this sort of situation." Malek criticised the leader of the Arab League mission, Sudanese General Mohammed al-Dabi, whose suitability for the role had been questioned by human rights groups concerned about his past role in the conflict in Darfur. "The head of the mission wanted to steer a middle course in order not to anger the (Syrian) authorities or any other side," said Malek, who had already drawn attention for critical comments he posted on Facebook while still in Syria. Anwar Malekはオブザーバーの団長であるスーダンのMohammed al-Dabi将軍の適格性に疑問を呈して「我々オブザーバーの団長は シリアのアサド政権を怒らせないため、或いはどの側も怒らせない様なコースを取ろうとしている」と述べた。
Pakistan's military has publicly rebuked Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani over an escalating row.
The army warned of "serious ramifications with potentially grievous consequences" after the PM criticised military leaders in a media interview.
Meanwhile, Mr Gilani has sacked his defence secretary, who is seen as having close ties to the military.
Tensions have been rising in recent months between Pakistan's civilian government and military leaders.
The latest row is a serious source of instability in Pakistan, where the military has ruled for more than half the country's history after seizing power in a series of coups.
'Unconstitutional'
A senior official told AFP news agency that defence secretary Naeem Khalid Lodhi had been removed from his post for gross misconduct.
The sacking is likely to heighten frictions with military leaders, observers say.
Earlier this week Mr Gilani was quoted saying the army chief and head of intelligence acted unconstitutionally by making submissions to a Supreme Court inquiry which has been rocking the government. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16511826
ホルムズ海峡情勢の更新、サウジアラビアと米国の関係、イスラエル系のDEBKAによる。一部の情報は検証できない -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.debka.com/article/21638/ Tuesday, President Barack Obama received the Saudi foreign minister Saud al-Faisal. Their conversation was shrouded in secrecy, although no one doubts it focused on the conflict with Iran and the urgency of keeping open the main export outlet for the world's biggest oil suppliers, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, through the Strait of Hormuz. The crisis in Syria must also have featured in their talks. 木曜日にサウジアラビア外相のSaud al-Faisalがホワイトハウス訪問、オバマ大統領との会談については報道されないが、明らかに イランを巡る情勢の会議と見られる
Shortly before the Saudi minister's arrival, US Navy and Air Force chiefs shed some light on preparations for an imminent operation to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to international shipping. DEBKAfile's Washington sources report that the White House is bending over backwards to convince the skeptical Saudis that the president is wiling to use military force to keep the vital waterway open, safeguard Gulf oil installations and exports and also prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. The armed forces chiefs' disclosures were integral to the White House effort. US Navy Commander Adm. Jonathan Greenert said preparations for a clash in the Strait of Hormuz (between the US and Iran) were keeping him up at night. The US Admiral added: “If you’re asking me why I’m not sleeping at night, it’s because of the Strait of Hormuz and what’s happening in the Arabian (Persian) Gulf. I’m an organizer, a trainer and equipper. I’d make sure that our people have the right equipment to do the right thing. Our folks that transit in and around that area, I want to make sure that they’re able to (deal) with the things that they need to deal with, basically self -protection, counter-swarm, ASW-anti-submarine warfare.” Air Force Commander General Norton Schwartz said that the US air force will obviously play a role in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. このサウジアラビア外相の訪問に先立って、米国空軍と米国海軍のトップがホルムズ海峡の防衛についてある程度の情報公開をしたが 此れはサウジアラニアが米国のホルムズ海峡防衛に疑問を持っていることに答えたもの。海軍のJonathan Greenert提督はホルムズ海 峡問題について「ホルムズ海峡の航行を保証するため海軍は組織化された訓練を行いcounter-swarm, ASW-anti-submarineオペレーシ ョンの準備ができていて私は常に緊張感を持っている」と語っている。
A few days earlier, on Jan. 8, Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint US Chiefs of Staff, acknowledged that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz for a period of time, but that if it did so the US would take action to reopen the Strait. The US has therefore made clear that it is resolved to bring all its naval and air power to bear on ensuring that the Strait of Hormuz remains open. 数日前に統合参謀本部議長のMartin Dempsey将軍はイランはホルムズ海峡を短時間封鎖できるにせよ米軍は此れを再開できるよう 行動する準備ができていると述べた。米国は空軍と海軍を動員してホルムズ海峡の防衛にコミットする事を示している。
Riyadh, for its part, has promised to make up any shortfalls in oil sales generated by Western sanctions against Iran as its contribution to Washington's campaign to convince Asian buyers such as India, Japan, China and South Korea to cut down on their purchases from Iran. This pledge is not entirely plain sailing. It raises the question of how quickly Saudi Arabia can up its oil production. The expert assessment is six to nine months at least. Then there is the counter-threat from Tehran: If the US continues to lean on European and Asian governments for an embargo on Iranian oil, "not a single drop" of Saudi or Gulf oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz, say Iranian officials, thus pitting an Iranian blockade against a Western-led oil embargo. サウジアラビア政府は(イランの石油禁輸の経済制裁による)石油不足への対応(増産)を約束している。それは日中韓インドなど のイラン石油輸入を米国が納得させるための支援措置である。しかしサウジアラビアがどの程度急速に増産を行えるかについて疑問 があり、専門家は少なくとも6−9ヶ月が必要と見ている。イランの高官は米国がイランへの経済制裁に踏み切った場合「サウジアラ ビア、或いは湾岸諸国の石油の一滴たりともホルムズ海峡を通過させない」と言っている。
Many Western experts treat Tehran's threat as empty rhetoric arguing that closure of the vital strait would above all impact Iran's own oil exports and slash its main source of revenue. But DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources report that Tehran is thinking in terms of a partial and selective closure of the Strait of Hormuz ? rather than full-blown military action - in the certainty that the US and West will not attack Iranian oil tankers or even detain them. Partial action, the Iranians believe, will be enough to trigger a major spike in world oil prices, send insurance rates for oil tankers sky high and bring the world's energy markets under intolerable pressure. Two years ago, a Revolutionary Guards speedboat from the island of Abu Musa in the northern outlet of Hormuz damaged the Japanese oil tanker Star M carrying oil from Saudi Arabia by firing a single missile. Washington opted to keep the findings of its inquiry under wraps so as to keep down tensions around the Gulf export route, avoid exacerbating relations with Tehran and keep a cap on oil prices. 多くの専門家はイランの高官の言辞は空虚な脅しとしている。しかしDEBKAのイラン・ソースはイラン政府がホルムズ海峡の部分的 および選択的な閉鎖を考えているという。此れは米国や西欧のイラン石油施設やタンカーへの攻撃を避けるためで、部分的閉鎖であ っても、それは国際石油価格を高騰させるのには充分とイランは考えている。それは世界のエネルギー市場に強大な圧力となる。 2年前にイランの革命防衛隊の高速艇がホルムズ海峡北部のAbu Musa諸島から発進してサウジアラビアからの石油を運ぶ日本のタン カーStar Mにミサイルを発射している。米国はこの事件が石油市場やイランとの外交関係を悪化させることを恐れて、事件を隠し 緊張の高まりを抑制したことがある。
イラン問題の情報更新,トルコのイラン核開発に対するスタンスについて、DEBKA;例によって内容は検証できない部分が ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.debka.com/article/21640/ Turkey halts Iranian arms corridor to Syria, balks at nuclear Iran DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 12, 2012, 10:46 AM (GMT+02:00) トルコはイランからシリアへの武器輸送回廊を停止させた DEBKA 12日
When IDF Military Intelligence chief Maj.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi accused Iran and Hizballah Wednesday, Jan. 11of directly helping Bashar Assad repress the uprising against him with arms, Turkey had just taken a stand against the Iranian corridor running weapons to Syria via its territory, DEBKAfile's military sources report. 水曜日にイスラエル諜報長官のAviv Kochavi少将がヒズボラとイランがシリアのアサド政権を直接的に武器の支援していると批判 した後、トルコが行動を起こし、イランからシリアへの武器輸送の回廊を停止させた。
Earlier this week, Ankara reported halting five Iranian trucks loaded with weapons for Syria at the Killis Turkish-Syrian border crossing and impounding its freight. According to our intelligence sources, the Iranian convoy was not really stopped at Killis but at the eastern Turkish Dobubayazit border crossing with Iran, near Mount Ararat. This supply route for Syria had been going strong for months. Ankara's decision to suspend it has reduced its volume by 60 percent. トルコは今週、トルコ・シリア国境のKillisで武器をイランからシリアに運ぶ5台のトラックを停止させたと報道している。我々の 入手した諜報情報では実際にはKillisではなくトルコ・イラン国境のアララト山に近い東部Dobubayazitで、イランのコンボイが停 止させられた。このイランからシリアへの供給路は最近数ヶ月、多く使われている。トルコ政府の武器供給回廊の停止措置により シリアへの輸送は60%低下する。
The Turks kept very quiet about the Dogubayazit route because disclosure would have exposed them as working two sides of the Syrian conflict ? letting Tehran set up a clandestine arms route for helping the Assad regime crack down on protest, while publicly posing as the leading champions of the Syrian protest movement ? even to providing the Free Syria Army with bases and training facilities. トルコは従来、このDogubayazitルートについて沈黙を保ってきたのだが、それはトルコのシリア紛争への二面性の現れである。 イランのアサド政権支援の武器輸送を黙認する一方で、シリアの反政府勢力を支援するポーズを取ってきている。
The influx of Iranian arms supplies via Turkey gave the Syrian army a major boost in quelling the uprising especially in the restive towns of Hama, Homs and Idlib, where demonstrations have dwindled. Now Ankara is worried about the consequences. Thursday, President Abdullah Gul raised fears of the Syrian uprising mutating into civil war. Our sources report that Ankara is concerned that sectarian conflict in Syria could spill over into Turkey. イランからの武器供与はシリア政府が反政府勢力を攻撃する上での支援になっており特にHama、Homs、Idlibなどでの紛争において そうであるが、ここに来てトルコ政府はシリアの内戦状態を憂慮し、Abdullah Gul大統領は紛争拡大を憂慮するといっている。我々 のソースに依れば、トルコはシリア国内の宗教宗派戦争がトルコ国内に飛び火することを恐れている。
In fact, as DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources report exclusively, Ankara changed course against Iran after Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu visited Tehran on Jan. 5. His mission was to warn Iranian leaders including President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad whom he met that Turkey will not stand for Iran acquiring a nuclear bomb and would act to disrupt its program. 我々の諜報ソースに依ればトルコ政府はAhmet Davutoglu外相の1月5日のテヘラン訪問の後で対イラン政策を変更している。外相の ミッションはアハマディネジャド首相などの指導者にトルコはイランの核爆弾開発を支持しないと伝えることであった。それ故、ト ルコはイランの核開発を妨害する立場で行動すると。
Although his visit was officially presented as an effort to broker the resumption of long-stalled nuclear talks between Tehran and the five world powers plus Germany (P5+1), Davutoglu in fact informed Ahmadinejad in no-nonsense terms, “Turkey can't live between two nuclear powers, one to the north (Russia) and one to the east (Iran)." The minister warned that if Tehran goes into production of a nuclear weapon, Ankara's first step would be to open the door for NATO forces to deploy along its border with Iran. トルコ外相のテヘラン訪問は公式にはイランとP5+1の対話を促進するためとされたが、トルコ外相の伝えたメッセージというのは 「トルコは二つの核保有国に挟まれて生存することはできない」つまりロシアとイランのことで、外相はイランが核爆弾製造に踏み 切るのであればトルコの最初の行動はNATO軍に道を開いてトルコ・イラン国境までの進入を許すことであると警告した。
According to DEBKAfile sources, Davutoglu gave Ahmadinejad a week to clarify the information reaching the West that Tehran had already begun assembling a nuclear weapon, so belying the persistent Iranian claim that its nuclear program is peaceful. After that, he said, Ankara would embark on progressively tougher counter-action. トルコ外相はイラン政府に核爆弾製造の意志について1週間の回答期限を与えたがイランは核開発計画は平和利用目的としてきた。
And indeed, when clarifications from Tehran had not been received by Tuesday, Jan. 10, Turkey went into action to halt the Iranian weapons convoy to Syria. Taking advantage of the new opportunities presented by the US military departure from Iraq last month, Iranian officials the next day, Wednesday, Jan. 11, ordered Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to shut the Iraqi-Jordanian border to convoys carrying Turkish export goods to Persian Gulf destinations. The following day, Thursday, Iran's Speaker of Parliament, Ali Larijani, turned up in Ankara to try and sort things out between Iran and Turkey before they got out of hand. イランからトルコへの回答期限の切れた火曜日にトルコは行動を起こし、シリアへの武器輸送回廊を停止した。水曜日の11日には イランはイラクのマリキ首相に命じて、イラク・ヨルダン国境のトルコの輸出品を運ぶコンボイを停止せしめた。木曜日にはイラ ンの国会議長Ali Larijaniがアンカラを訪問し事態の調停を目指している。