From the Saudi point of view, the damage inflicted by the United States in 2003 by destroying Saddam's military strength was compounded by the failure to defend deposed President Hosni Mubarak's government in Cairo. The Egyptian regime had other merits for the Al Saud family, including a respectable rate of economic growth, which is now a receding memory. Its chief virtue in Saudi eyes, however, was Mubarak's systematic opposition to Iran and its allies, and even the Shiites as such. Egypt's post-Mubarak rulers are hardly likely to embrace either Iran or its doctrine -- the country is solidly Sunni -- but there is no guarantee that they will emulate Mubarak's very active anti-Iran policy, which was strengthened by pragmatic cooperation with Israel. Indeed, the first act of the post -Mubarak interim regime was to call for the restoration of diplomatic relations with Iran -- even if to no great effect so far.
But having greatly damaged the Sunni front by sweeping away Mubarak, the "Arab Spring" is now greatly helping it by weakening the Assad regime in Syria. The rulers of Qatar and of Saudi Arabia are untroubled by the obvious contradictions in their policy toward this year's Arab revolts: They are defending Bahrain's ruling family against the majority Shiite population while loudly criticizing and sanctioning the Assad regime for oppressing its own majority Sunni population. And they are demanding democratic rule in Syria while accepting none of it at home.
For Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies, the purpose of overthrowing Assad is to break the "Shiite crescent": bringing Damascus under Sunni rule, repudiating its alliance with Iran, and cutting off Hezbollah from its logistic base in Syria, thereby allowing Lebanon's Sunnis to regain power along with their Christian allies. A further aim is to provide a refuge for Iraq's outnumbered Sunnis, just across the border. A broader goal to be achieved by denying Tehran its only Arab ally is to reduce Iran's acceptability by Arab populations everywhere. サウジアラビアと湾岸アラブ諸国にとって、シリアのアサド政権をスンニ派政権に交代されることはシリアとイランの連携を 断ち切り、イランを孤立化させ、ヒズボラを弱体化させ、レバノンのスンニ派とキリスト教徒の勢力を強化することになり、 更にイラクからシリアに逃避したスンニ派の支援にもなる。これら全ては中東のイランの影響力の弱体化につながる(ry
Our economists believe the sovereign debt and banking crises are causing a renewed recession in the Euro Area. Beginning in 4Q 2012 [Sic], they forecast real GDP to contract for 6 consecutive quarters. It is expected to be an especially protracted recession. Not even in Japan, during its lost decades, did real GDP decline for 6 consecutive quarters. Our economists’ Euro Zone forecasts imply real GDP will be some way below the trend established during the first 10 years of Euro inception (Figure 3) and not get back to previous peak levels for many years to come.
Given how Euro Zone banks and their subsidiaries dominate lending in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), CIRA Banks analysts believe this will be the region most vulnerable to any deleveraging. For example, loans by Euro-owned banks are equivalent to about 100% of GDP in the Czech Republic and Poland (Figure 6). By comparison, loans by Euro banks in the Asian money centers, Hong Kong and Singapore, are equivalent to 40% of local GDP. And Euro banks make up an even smaller proportion of the loans (relative to GDP) in the major LatAm economies.
Central and Eastern Europe are most exposed to any weakness in Euro Zone imports. For example, Czech and Hungarian exports to the Euro Zone account for more than 40% of local GDP. Simplistically, a 1% contraction in Euro Zone exports would subtract about 0.5% from GDP in these economies.
Outside of Europe (Eastern or Western), Hong Kong has the biggest export exposure to the Euro Zone at about 14% of GDP. By comparison, Chinese exports to the Euro Zone make up just 4% and it is even less for the US. We should stress that Figure 7 highlights the potential trade vulnerability to a Euro Zone recertsssion. At the moment, our Euro Zone economists do not forecast a contraction in imports over the next two years (they forecast flat imports in 2012 and a 2% increase in 2013). So based on our forecasts, there may not be serious contagion via trade. ttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/12/08/786571/not-even-in-japan/
予想されたことだけれど、オバマのカンサスでの演説は保守派からは呆れ返るという反応、ラディカルズからは絶賛・・ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203413304577084292119160060.html DECEMBER 8, 2011 Obama's Godfather Speech:The president sounds more like a Corleone than a Roosevelt. By DANIEL HENNINGER オバマ大統領のカンサス州Osawatomieでの演説は、ルーズベルトのようと言うよりはコルレオーネのように聞こえる By DANIEL HENNINGER WSJ、8日 (注:Vito Corleone アメリカのマフィア映画The Godfather(1972年)でマーロン・ブランドが演じた主人公の名前)
The Osawatomie speech sounded like what you'd expect to hear in Caracas or Buenos Aires. As in: "The free market has never been a license to take whatever you can from whomever you can." (Applause.) And: "Their philosophy is simple. We are better off when everybody is left to fend for themselves and play by their own rules."
Some will say hearing crude Chavista populism in the Obama speech is an overreaction. That once it's understood the Kansas speech was the work of the party leader, not the president of the United States, it becomes easier to think about it without overreacting to its intense and vivid rhetoric: "Millions of working families in this country . . . are now forced to take their children to food banks for a decent meal."
PetroChina has discovered shale gas in China’s Sichuan province, confirming that the energy-hungry country is sitting on vast reserves of this unconventional fuel source.
China has more shale gas reserves than any other country in the world, with 1,275tr cu ft of recoverable shale gas reserves, according to estimates from the US Energy Information Administration. That is enough to supply China for more than 300 years, based on current consumption levels. 中国は世界最大のシェールガス埋蔵を持つと推定されていて、1275tr cu ft 現行使用量の300年分をもつと推定される。
Despite the apparent resources, some analysts are sceptical about how soon China can make shale gas production profitable given the relatively low price of natural gas in China and the lack of pipeline infrastructure. Two geologists contacted by the FT said that 10,000 cu m per day was not large relative to onshore US fields, adding that production from shale gas wells declines rapidly over the lifetime of the well.
PetroChina’s southern Sichuan shale acreage includes the Changning and Weiyuan blocks. On the nearby Fushun -Yongchuan block, a joint venture project between PetroChina and Shell has drilled several exploration wells for shale gas, at least one of which has gas production, according to media reports earlier this year. Shell declined to comment on the production of the block, saying that “exploration work is ongoing”.
FTの実況ブログから、ECBの総裁は「ノン・スタンダードな手法で銀行セクターに流動性を提供」 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2011/12/eurozone-crisis-live-blog-19/#axzz1fx1kCe4r Announces further non-standard measures which “should ensure enhanced access of banking sector to liquidity”. Banks are expected to support provision credit to households and non-financial institutions
Relaxation of rating required for some collateral that can be used with ECB from Triple A to Single A. MPC decided to reduce reserve ratio currently 2 per cent to 1 per cent. “This will free up collateral.”
ユーロとユーロ圏の銀行株価はECBの36ヶ月ファイナンス他の発表で上昇 (FT実況ブログ) Euro and Eurozone banking stocks higher after ECB announces two 36-month refinancing operations and widens collateral pool for its lending facility. Draghi comments have reversed earlier losses.
ECB総裁の記者会見発言 Today 13:31 ? ECB’S DRAGHI ? UNDERLYING PACE OF MONETARY EXPANSION CONTINUES TO BE MODERATE Today 13:32 ? DRAGHI-COST PRESSURES SHOULD REMAIN MODEST OVER POLICY RELEVANT TIME Today 13:32 ? DRAGHI-ECB ADDOPTED MORE NON-STANDARD MEASURES Today 13:33 ? DRAGHI-ECB TO CONDUCT TWO LONG TERM OPS WITH MATURITY OF 36 MONTHS Today 13:33 ? DRAGHI-INTEREST RATE TO BE INDEXED TO MAIN RATE Today 13:34 ? DRAGHI-HAVE EASED COLLATERAL RULES Today 13:34 ? DRAGHI-ABS HAVING SECOND BEST SINGLE A RATING WILL BE ACCEPTED Today 13:35 ? DRAGHI-ECB HAS DECIDED TO CUT RESERVE RATIO TO 1 PCT Today 13:36 ? DRAGHI-MEASURES TO CUT RESERVE RATIO WILL TAKE EFFECT JAN 18 2012
In 2010, the total output value of animation industry in China increased by 27.8% year-on-year to RMB47.084 billion. In 2015, the total output value is expected to reach RMB 120 billion, and the market scale of overall industry Chain will surpass RMB200 billion. However, the market occupancy of domestic animation industry still remains small, which was no more than 12% in 2010, a steep decrease over the past two years.
Global and China Animation Industry Report 2011 highlights:
--Overview of animation industry; animation industry in the United States, Japan and other countries; industry scale, market occupancy, product type of China's animation industry; --Production and product registration of TV animation industry; overview of animation film market; analysis of film production, comics publication industry, new media animation, animation derivatives, animation industry base;? --Analysis of 7 key foreign animation enterprises, namely, Disney, Bandai Namco Group, Pixar Animation Studios, DreamWorks, Toei Animation, Production I.G, and Sotsu; analysis of 12 typical China-based animation enterprises, including ALPHA, Talkweb Information, Toonmax Media, Huawei Toys Craft, IDMT, Jiang Toon Animation, Greatdreams, Skynet Asia Culture Communication, CCTV Animation, Sunchime Group and Zhongnan Group Cartoon Television.
ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c7c59190-21ba-11e1-a19f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1fuxWQyPC December 8, 2011 7:27 pm China ship order fuels market glut fears By Robert Wright in London A significant order from a Chinese buyer for new crude-oil tankers has fuelled speculation that China is preparing a series of huge ship orders. 中国のバイアーがタンカーを多量に発注したことで、海運業界に(過剰能力への)恐怖が生まれている FT、9日
significant order from a Chinese buyer for new crude-oil tankers has fuelled speculation that China is preparing a series of huge ship orders. The orders would support employment in the country’s shipbuilding industry but flood struggling shipping markets with excess capacity. China Rongsheng Heavy Industries (CRHI), China’s largest privately controlled shipbuilding group by order book size, announced on Thursday that it had received an order for 10 Suezmax crude oil tankers, plus options for a further 10, for delivery in 2013 and 2014. Suezmax tankers, the second-largest commonly-used size, carry 1m barrels of oil. 中国国営の造船企業CRHIは2013−14年引渡しの10のSuezmaxタンカーを受注と発表。更にオプションで10の追加の可能性。
The order came from Global Union Shipping, whose ownership is unclear but market speculation links it to one of China’s state-owned shipping companies. New Suezmaxes cost $60m-$75m so the total order, if placed, is likely to be worth up to $1.5bn. 発注元はGlobal Union Shippingで国営海運企業と関連があると言われる。発注額は $1.5bn の規模に上る。
Paul Slater, a veteran shipping financier who has long warned of the risk that China might flood shipping markets by building excess ships, said that the order was “wholly irresponsible and unnecessary”. 業界の専門家は中国がこの規模の新規造船を行うことは不必要かつ無責任で海運業界に設備過剰をもたらすリスクがあるという。
The whole thing is a shame. To watch a presidency fall apart can be a poignant thing; and to watch a president dishonor himself in the process can be a sad one. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 一方でこれ↓は、雑誌ニューヨーカー掲載のオバマ演説を賞賛する評論。オバマが保守陣営と戦う姿勢を明確 にしたことは大変喜ばしいという。いずれにせよオバマのカンサス演説というのは、とても良いリトマス試験 紙のようで、こういう機会に各種ライター、コメンテーターの立ち位置が明確になって(ry
Yes, the President has done some positive things and made some good speeches, and, yes too, he has faced enormous difficulties, but all too often his heart hasn’t seemed to be in the fight.
今回の実験は、欧州合同原子核研究所(CERN)がスイス・ジュネーブ郊外の地下に建設した、一周約27キロの円形 加速器で実施。ほぼ光速に加速した陽子同士を正面衝突させ、壊れる過程を詳細に調べた。日本も参加するアトラスと、 米などによるCMSという二つの検出器のチームがデータを解析。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.news24.com/SciTech/News/Scientists-close-in-on-god-particle-20111208 Scientists say their data from two main experiments using Cern's $10bn Large Hadron Collider under the Swiss-French border will be made public next on Tuesday, but any firm discovery will have to wait until 2012.
They say the data helps narrow the region of the search because it excludes some of the higher energy ranges where the Higgs boson might be found, and shows some intriguing possibilities involving a small number of "events" at the lower energy ranges.
Significant discoveries "What's exciting is we know we're close to getting something in focus. We know we're close to the stage where we're going to see something," said Joe Incandela, a physicist who will lead one of Cern's two main experiments next year. "We're really right at the boundary of where you might get a vague hint of something," he said. "But whenever you're talking about that small number of events, there's no real statement you can make."
We agree with Calculated Risk and Tim Duy that the more recent drop-off in the participation rate is more the result of cyclical factors than demographic trends, as cited in this Bloomberg report. (See also Karl Smith and Calculated Risk on young adults dropping out, mostly to pursue higher education, and Catherine Rampbell on how the decline of people in the labour force in the November unemployment report can be entirely explained by women dropping out of it.) But the larger point is that the secular decline will be difficult to reverse even if the economy gets going again.
EUサミットの欧州負債危機への対応策について、英国のエコノミスト(大御所)Gavyn Daviesのコメント My initial take on the deal is that it will be sufficient to dampen the acute phase of the crisis, but that the absence of a clear long-term strategy for growth means that there could still be a long period of chronic problems ahead. *ううむ・・
ゴールドマン・サックスのコメンタリーは … the fiscal rules (or ‘fiscal compact’) do not go beyond what we expected. ECB President Draghi has highlighted that such rules are required before any other policy actions might follow. The ‘ex ante’ component ? which Draghi emphasised as key ? consists of reporting debt issuance plans. That seems to use to be relatively weak as a fiscal rule. Further measures may follow and more details will need to be worked out today. Debt rules will also apply in each country, with the European Court of Justice verifying that they are enacted at the national level. But that falls short of monitoring on an ongoing basis.
シティグループ However, the available decisions do not expand on the form of sanctions and to us it remains very unclear how these sanctions can be enforced. As the fiscal compact ? mainly because of UK opposition ? will not be part of the EU Treaty and will be only an “international agreement”, it remains uncertain whether the EU Commission or the ECJ will have the rights to enforce these measures. In case the Commission is able to enforce the measure and has the right to take away national sovereignty for the 17 euro area member states, the agreement might require a referendum in some member states, e.g. Ireland. The other open question is how national constitutional courts (e.g. Germany) will regard this agreement.
この状況を総括してFTアルファビレは・・ All told, we remain, as ever, sceptical. This wasn’t a complete failure but it certainly wasn’t success. Fortunately, it doesn’t matter what we think. It matters what Mario Draghi thinks, and thus far he’s sounded cautiously optimistic. Which is always a dangerous attitude in Europe.
・・・・ It all adds up to one of the most disastrous summits imaginable. A continent which has risen to multiple occasions over the past 66 years has, in 2011, decided to implode in a spectacle of pathetic ignominy. Its individual countries will survive, of course, albeit in unnecessarily straitened circumstances. But the dream of European unity is dissolving in real time, as the eyes of the world look on in disbelief.
Europe’s leaders have set a course which leads directly to a gruesome global recession, before we’ve even recovered from the last one. Europe can’t afford that; America can’t afford that; the world can’t afford that. But the hopes of arriving anywhere else have never been dimmer. (*念のために書いておくとFelix Salmonというのは、アラーミストとか煽り屋とかではない鋭い論客なのだけれど・・)
Despite IRGC willingness to help out, the Iranian government has decided to pull back on support for the pro-Iran government in Syria. Months of demonstrations, which continue despite the use of troops and deadly force, have weakened the Syrian government. Apparently Iran is trying to limit its losses here, as it would still like to have an arrangement with a new Syrian government to supply pro-Iran Shia Hezbollah in Lebanon. That's a long shot, but is a possibility. ttp://www.strategypage.com/qnd/iran/articles/20111209.aspx The Secret War December 9, 2011:
The fate of the Kyoto climate treaty hung in the balance on Saturday after talks to save it went into extra time amid accusations of organisational chaos and attempts to “poison” a deal. The two-week UN conference, originally due to end on Friday, now looks likely to last well into Saturday night and possibly Sunday. “The more this drags on, the more likely we are to lose momentum,” said one official, explaining there may not be enough time left to salvage the Kyoto protocol, the world’s only treaty legally obliging wealthy countries to curb their carbon emissions. 京都プロトコルの延長の可否などをめぐってダーバンの気候変動国際会議は紛糾し、合意の得られぬまま土曜日も協議を継続 しており、日曜日になだれ込む恐れもある。ある高官は「会議が紛糾し継続すればするだけ、モメンタムが失われる」という。 今回の国際会議で京都プロトコル延長の合意に至るには時間切れになる恐れもある(後略) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/270206/durban-climate-deal-unlikely Durban climate deal 'unlikely' Published: 10/12/2011 at 08:32 PMOnline news: ダーバン気候変動国際会議での合意は望めそうにない
DURBAN, South Africa : Deep into an unscheduled 13th day, UN climate talks on Saturday struggled to agree on a proposed pact to roll back carbon emissions in a key decade for fighting global warming. But chances of a deal receded, given the pressure of the clock and an agonisingly slow process to untangle a web of issues, France and Germany said. "We are now in an extremely critical situation because of time," German Environment Minister Norbert Roettgen told journalists after all-night wrangling. ドイツ環境相のNorbert Roettgenは「時間切れになりそうなクリティカルな状況だ」と記者に語った
With the ECB’s big bazooka still held in reserve, the burden of restoring credibility in the eurozone will fall more heavily on member states themselves. That effectively means deeper austerity in low-growth countries such as Italy and Spain. Yet unless states in the eurozone’s core are also prepared to do their bit, there is a danger that the result will merely be lower growth and lower revenues. The eurozone would then be trapped in a vicious circle requiring further cuts to restore budgets to balance. This is precisely the dynamic that Europe’s leaders need to break. The proposals mooted this week by Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy gave little indication that they are ready to do so. It is to be hoped that Friday’s summit produces something a good deal more convincing.
The delegates continued to meet, and it was unclear whether the documents would be approved. Earlier, a coalition of small island nations and the European Union had floated the option of holding an interim meeting at the Rio+20 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development in late June to hammer out a meaningful compromise. The proposal would “launch a work programme to identify and explore options to increase mitigation ambition” by countries so the world could take on steeper cuts in greenhouse gases linked to climate change. The U.N. Secretariat would publish a new technical paper by April that would summarize the current climate science, and then ministers would convene in Rio to craft a deal that could be approved by the end of 2012 in Qatar.
*詐欺っぽい(w 結論先送りにみえる。ロイターでは ttp://in.reuters.com/article/2011/12/11/un-climate-talks-launch-new-market-mecha-idINDEE7BA03820111211 The EU, Australia and New Zealand had favoured establishing modalities and procedures under the Durban Platform, but several parties, including the U.S. and Japan, wanted to delay the decision, an EU negotiator said. "The U.S. said they couldn't agree on something when they don't know what it's going to look like," the negotiator said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The EU wants any new market mechanisms to cut greenhouse gas emissions outside of Kyoto anchored in international law, in order to avoid fragmentation of the international carbon market. Parties are now tasked with developing a framework for new mechanisms over the next 12 months with a view to making recommendations in Qatar. The talks said the rules must ensure environmental integrity of new markets, seek to avoid double counting and ensure that a net decrease in CO2 emissions is achieved.
The new rules force developers to put 5 percent of Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs) in a reserve, to be awarded to project developers only after site monitors have proved that no CO2 has leaked from the underground store 20 years after the end of the crediting period. Although the International Energy Agency has estimated 3,400 CCS facilities are needed by 2050 to help keep a global temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius, observers don't expect any CCS projects to be registered any time soon. This is because of difficulties in showing additionality as CER prices are currently at around 5 euros.
>>342>>343 ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b3107fca-23be-11e1-bbe6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1g8cwR4o6 Officials from US, which has often been accused of blocking efforts to tackle climate change, said they were comfortable with the deal. “In the end, it ended up quite well,” said Todd Stern, US envoy. “We got the kind of symmetry that we had been focused on since the beginning of the Obama administration. This had all the elements that we were looking for.”
NEW YORK?The euro isn't likely to see lasting relief from the outcome of Friday's European Union summit, with investors skeptical that the deal reached in Brussels will end the region's debt crisis. "There's been progress, but this is not enough to constitute a satisfactory resolution" of the debt crisis, said John Lonski, chief economist for Moody's Analytics' Capital Markets Research Group. ・・・・ Some analysts think that despite strong recent U.S. economic data, the Fed could soon announce a third round of bond-buying, or quantitative easing, to spur housing and labor market growth. Ultra-accomodative monetary policy is negative for the dollar, which remains hampered by low yields and a fiscal imbalance that rivals Europe's. But market watchers say any more action by the Fed is likely to hinge on how much more conditions in the euro zone deteriorate. As markets digest the summit's outcome, the U.S. central bank is seen holding its fire for the moment.
The rise in the balance sheets of the big 4 central banks over the 2008-12 period will amount to about 15 per cent of GDP, which is equivalent to over 50 per cent of the cumulative budget deficit of these countries over the same period. Who knows what would have happened to bond yields in the absence of this action.
Because this behaviour is so unprecedented, it is hard to predict the medium term consequences of such a massive dose of QE. Many economists argue that, in the absence of any rise in inflation expectations, central bank balance sheets are in effect infinitely large, and can be used as needed to combat the crisis.
Given the outsize scale of what the central banks are now doing, this argument needs increasingly careful examination in future blogs. But one conclusion already seems clear. If this strategy does not work, there will be little else left in the locker of the emergency services.
BEIJING?The International Monetary Fund's top banking official, assessing the strength of China's financial system, said Chinese regulators need to improve the data they use to assess whether their banks could withstand a sudden economic downturn, and also should better explain what level of capital banks need to hold. IMFの高官は中国の金融システムの健全性をアセスする上で、中国当局がデータの正確性を改善する必要があるとした。経済の 不調時に金融システムが健全性を維持できるべく、銀行の保持する自己資本の状況を正しく把握すべきである
"There are important constraints and gaps in the available data" for stress tests of China's banks, said Jose Vinals, the IMF's director of monetary and capital markets, in written responses Sunday to questions from The Wall Street Journal. "The key constraint was the lack of consistent time series of data on credit risk." WSJの問い合わせに対してIMFのマネタリ&キャピタルマーケット部長であるJose Vinalsは「現在の中国データには重要な問題 とギャップがある」という。「最大の問題はクレジットリスクについてのデータに一貫した時系列データのないことである」
According to the IMF review in November, a 30% decline in property prices, the regulators found, would have only a "minimal impact" on banks' capital buffer. The report estimated that banks' nonperforming loans were just 1.1% at the end of 2010. The review didn't have more current data. IMFに依れば中国の不動産価格の30%下落の場合に、中国の銀行規制当局は銀行の資本バッファーに「ミニマムの影響」 があるのみとしている。2010年末の銀行の不良債権比率は1,1%であるという。その後の見直しは行なっていない。
Mr. Vinals made his comments after a conference last week in Shanghai that focused on the IMF's review of the financial systems in China and elsewhere in Asia, called the Financial System Stability Assessment. Mr. Vinalsは先週の上海でのカンファレンスの後にコメントしている。カンファレンスではアジア諸国の金融システムの 安定性アセスメントが主題とされていた。(後略)
最近のオバマ・キャンペーンの階級闘争色を強める(class warfare)行き方に警告を発して、AEIのMichael Baroneの評論。 国内でも「格差反対」などという(白々しい)論調を強めているリリカル・レフトのメディアの人たちは、こういう評論を 読んでおいたほうが良いと思う --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/12/12/obama_romney_change_tacks_in_week_of_political_risks_112357.html Obama, Romney Change Tacks in Week of Political Risks By Michael Barone December 12, 2011 オバマ大統領とロムニー候補は、政治的なリスクに際して、キャンペーン手法を変えているが By Michael Barone(AEI)12日
India’s industrial output has tumbled for the first time in more than two years, highlighting the vulnerability of the world’s emerging market growth engines to the eurozone crisis and sending the rupee to an all-time low. Industrial production dropped 5.1 per cent in October from a year earlier, official data showed on Monday, as high interest rates, worsening global economic uncertainties and political paralysis at home hurt the overall economy. インドの10月度・産業産出が2年ぶりに大きく低下し、これを受けてルピーが最安値をつけた。産業産出は前年比で5.1%減少
The fall, significantly lower than the market expected, will bolster the case for the central bank to ease its monetary tightening policy to boost growth at a time when Asia’s third-largest economy is cooling rapidly. “The data are way worse than we were expecting,” said A Prasanna, economist at ICICI securities in Mumbai. “Usually output is lower during the months of October and November as there are fewer working days due to the festival season but a 5.1 per cent drop is significantly more than we predicted,” he added. この減少は市場の予想を超えたもので、アジアで第三位の大型経済国であるインド経済の急速な冷却化を示し、中央銀行は 金融引き締め政策を転換して成長促進に回ると推察される。ICICI証券のエコノミスト、A Prasannaは「このデータは我々の 予測より悪い」と述べている
Manufacturing output, which represents about 76 per cent of industrial production, dropped 6 per cent in October, compared with a year ago and capital goods production, which is considered to be a key barometer of investment sentiment in the country, fell 25.5 per cent. Meanwhile, mining production was down 7.2 per cent, as a series of scandals in the sector and continued uncertainty over the outcome of a long-awaited mining bill hurt the industry. 製造業産出は−6%、資本財生産は−25.5%、鉱業産出は−7.2%。 The disappointing data had a negative impact on the Indian rupee, which hit an all-time low against the dollar as it crossed the Rs52.80 mark on Monday, the weakest the rupee has been since it was allowed to float against the dollar in March 1993. Meanwhile, the Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark Sensex index closed down 2.1 per cent at 15,870. ルピーの対ドル相場は52.80と1993年のフロート以降の最低値をつけボンベイの株式市場はSENSEXが2.1%下落した India has raised benchmark lending rates 13 times since March 2010 in a desperate effort to tame inflation, which on average has been hovering around double digit figures for the past 12 months. インドの中央銀行は2010年3月以降に13回の利上げを行いインフレ抑制に努めてきた。インフレ率は過去12ヶ月に二桁にのって いた(後略)
WSJの準社説である「レビュー&アウトルック」が先のダーバン気候変動国際会議の「京都プロトコル延長」について 書いている。国内メディアは総じて会議が成功しCo2規制に進歩があったと賞賛するけれど、WSJは大変批判的で・・ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203518404577094081344492356.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEFTTopBucket REVIEW & OUTLOOKDECEMBER 13, 2011 Global Warming Wash Out The Kyoto Protocol can now be ignored for another five years.
As global warming conferences go, the one that ended Sunday in Durban, South Africa was, by common consensus, a wash out.
(大胆に中略) All of this raises the question of what purpose this conference served. Cynics might say that rich countries are doing the least they can to honor promises they once made but no longer believe in and can't afford anyway. Cynics might also say that poorer countries are hoping that someday they may claim their portion of the promised pot of climate change gold. The cynics would be right.
But U.N.-inspired causes and conferences, like comets tracing highly elliptical orbits, operate on their own momentum even when far from the sun. Which means that, at some point, global warming?like population control, the question of Quebec and other once trendy causes?is bound to be back. Let's hope it returns with more definitive evidence and less destructive remedies.
WSJに寄稿された中国経済についての興味深い評論。ここで論じているのは、いつも言われる「中国の3兆ドルの外貨準備」 の内実で、その多くが海外に置かれているために、もしそれを(実際に)使うなら酷いインフレを起こすことになるという。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OPINION ASIADECEMBER 12, 2011, 6:16 P.M. ET Beijing Can't Use Its Reserves to Save the Banks Too much of China's wealth is stuck offshore. Bringing it back for use in a bailout would risk inflation.
Perhaps the most pervasive is that the government can always tap its $3 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, and so no one should worry about a financial crisis. The truth is very different. ・・・ The first problem is that the foreign reserves are, indeed, foreign. They are held in various accounts in foreign countries. The bulk, if not all, of China's $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, for example, is held in New York City with the Federal Reserve Bank in the custody accounts of various clearing banks in the name of the People's Bank of China/State Administration for Foreign Exchange. The pattern repeats with euro-denominated bonds and various other investments.
Chinese banks, however, operate overwhelmingly in the domestic yuan market and have relatively little use for foreign exchange. At the end of 2010, 80% of the assets and liabilities of the Bank of China, the most international of China's major banks, were yuan-denominated. For Agricultural Bank of China, the least international bank, the ratio was 95%.
This means that a direct bailout of this sort would give banks capital they don't need?held offshore?to replace capital the banks don't have?the holes in their domestic balance sheets resulting from bad loans. While on paper this might improve the appearance of a bank's balance sheet, it's little practical good to have the bulk of a bank's capital tied up in foreign currencies overseas when they desperately need yuan-denominated capital to use at home.
The solution seems simple: sell the U.S. bonds for dollars and then buy yuan. This is what Bank of China and China Construction Bank did in 2005. They each entered into agreements with their direct shareholder, Central SAFE Investments (now known as Huijin and 100% state-owned), to sell dollars for yuan over a defined period of time.
Therein lies the second major problem with the reserves. China's economy is closed and its currency is non- convertible. This means that each time the central bank buys dollars from exporters it creates yuan: China's forex reserves are assets on its balance sheet matched by local-currency liabilities. Now if China's banks, the bulk of whose capital is also a central-bank asset (since the central bank lends money to Huijin to buy bank shares), want to sell their dollars for yuan, the central bank will be buying those dollars a second time and with newly issued yuan.
No matter how such a transaction is structured?as a straight loan, as an option or as a currency swap?it is inherently inflationary in an economy with a non-convertible currency such as China's. To be fair, at least the currency trades can be planned over a prolonged period of time and sterilized to minimize the inflationary impact. That makes this potentially less inflationary than simply injecting local currency directly as bank capital. But this is a matter of trying to manage inflation risk. The risk is still there.
Global energy demand will be about 30 percent higher in 2040 compared to 2010. Energy demand growth will slow as economies mature, efficiency gains accelerate and population growth moderates. In the countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) we see energy use remaining essentially flat. Non OECD energy demand will grow by close to 60 percent. By 2040, electricity generation will account for more than 40 percent of global energy consumption. Oil will remain the most widely used fuel, but natural gas will grow fast enough to overtake coal for the number -two position.
For both oil and natural gas, an increasing share of global supply will come from unconventional sources, such as those from shale formations. Demand for natural gas will rise by more than 60 percent through 2040. Demand for coal will peak and begin a gradual decline. Gains in efficiency through energy-saving practices and technologies will temper demand growth and curb emissions. Global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will grow slowly, then level off around 2030. ttp://www.exxonmobil.com/corporate/files/news_pub_eo2012.pdf
Michael A. Levi, a climate change and energy fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “The reality is that there is no more agreement on the future of the climate talks than there was when negotiators first convened two weeks ago,” he said. China and India will continue to oppose one; and the United States, while leaving the door open to an agreement that is binding for all, will continue to be unenthusiastic as well. These positions are largely rooted in incompatible views of the future, and there is no reason to believe that more talking will change them.” ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 纏めて言えば、国内メディアは昔の欧米(リベラル)メディアのお花畑論調をそのままリピートして書いているわけですが彼ら のお手本としていたNYTでさえ、この問題を色あせたものと捉えているわけで、国内メディアはそういうトレンドに全く気がつ いていないと言えます。
China has promised another wave of tough measures against counterfeiters as it defends itself against constant criticism of its record in the protection of intellectual property rights. 78 per cent of all software sold in China in 2010 was pirated, according to the BSA, compared with a global average piracy rate of 42 per cent.
At such times and at such times only, the government must borrow and spend the private sector’s excess savings, not only because monetary policy is impotent at such times but also because the government cannot tell the private sector not to repair its balance sheet.
Along the road to one of China’s most famous tourist landmarks ? the Great Wall of China ? sits what could potentially have been another such tourist destination, but now stands as an example of modern-day China and the problems facing it. 万里の長城とともに中国観光の目玉として主要観光スポットになるはずであった北京郊外のディズニランド(まがい)は 今や廃墟と化していて、跡地には農作物をつくるべく・・・
1.01pm: Cern's live webcast has begun, but the seminar has yet to start. The expressions on some of the faces in the audience suggests Christmas is about to come early for the physics community.
ATLAS and CMS have presented an important milestone in their search for the Higgs particle, but it is not yet sufficient for a proper discovery given the amount of data recorded so far. Still, I am very excited about it, since the quality of the LHC results is exceptional.
The Higgs particle seems to have picked itself a mass which makes things very difficult for us physicists. Everything points at a mass in the range 115-140 GeV and we concentrate on this region with our searches at the LHC and at the Tevatron.
The results indicate we are about half-way there and within one year we will probably know whether the Higgs particle exists with absolute certainty, but it is unfortunately not a Christmas present this year. The Higgs particle will, of course, be a great discovery, but it would be an even greater discovery if it didn't exist where theory predicts it to be.
This would be a huge surprise and secretly we hope this might happen. If this is case, there must be something else that takes the role of the "standard" Higgs particle, perhaps a family of several Higgs particles or something even more exotic. The unexpected is always the most exciting. ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2011/dec/13/higgs-boson-seminar-god-particle
1.43pm: From Cern: "#ATLAS sees a small excess at a Higgs mass of 126 GeV coming from 3 channels. Local significance: 3.6 sigma but only 2.4 sigma globally" That's not enough for a "discovery" (which techically needs 5 sigma) but it is very interesting evidence for the Higgs. ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2011/dec/13/higgs-boson-seminar-god-particle
WASHINGTON?U.S. intelligence agencies have pinpointed many of the Chinese groups responsible for cyberspying in the U.S., and most are sponsored by the Chinese military, according to people who have been briefed on the investigation. アメリカ政府の諜報部はサイバー・スパイ行為を行った中国のグループをピンポイントし、そのほとんどは中国軍がスポーン サーであるとしている。ソースは調査についてブリーフィングを受けた人物による。
Armed with this information, the U.S. has begun to lay the groundwork to confront China more directly about cyberspying. Two weeks ago, U.S. officials met with Chinese counterparts and warned China about the diplomatic consequences of economic spying, according to one person familiar with the meeting. この情報を受けてアメリカ政府は従来以上に中国に対して正面から抗議を行うよう準備を進めている。二週間前に中国の高官 に面会したアメリカ政府高官は、経済的情報のスパイ行為に関わル外交的帰結について警告したという。
The Chinese cyberspying campaign stems largely from a dozen groups connected to China's People's Liberation Army and a half-dozen nonmilitary groups connected to organizations like universities, said those who were briefed on the investigation. Two other groups play a significant role, though investigators haven't determined whether they are connected to the military. 中国のサイバー・スパイ行為は人民解放軍に関連のある1ダースほどのグループと軍に関与しない半ダースほどのグループがあ り、後者は大学その他である。この他に二つのグループがスパイ行為の役割を担っている。
"It's actually a small number of groups that do most of the PLA's dirty work," said James Lewis, a cybersecurity specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who frequently advises the Obama administration. "NSA is pretty confident of their ability to attribute [cyberespionage] to this set of actors." オバマ政権にアドバイスを行なっているCSISのサイバーセキュリティ専門家であるJames Lewisは「人民解放軍のダーティ・ ワークを担っているのは少数のグループだ」という。
The activity breaks down into cyberspying efforts by 20 groups with different attack styles that are responsible for most of the cybertheft of U.S. secrets, said the people briefed on the investigation. U.S. intelligence officials have given different classified code names to each group. U.S. intelligence officials can identify different groups based on a variety of indicators. Those characteristics include the type of cyberattack software they use, different Internet addresses they employ when stealing data, and how attacks are carried out against different targets. In addition to U.S. government agencies, major targets of these groups include U.S. defense contractors, according to former officials. NSAの調査で約20のグループが識別されている。主なサイバー・スパイの攻撃対象は軍のコントラクター企業である。
Collectively, these groups employ hundreds of people, according to former officials briefed on the effort. That number is believed to be small compared to the estimated 30,000 to 40,000 censors the Chinese government is believed to employ to patrol the Internet. The Chinese government is believed to have been behind a number of recent major cyberbreak-ins, including multiple hacks of Google Inc. and the EMC Corp.'s RSA unit, which makes the numerical tokens used by millions of corporate employees to access their network. A cyberattack revealed this year on Lockheed Martin Corp. is also believed to have been traced to China, and the Chinese are believed to have been responsible for an infiltration a few years ago of the Pentagon's Joint Strike Fighter weapons program, which is also managed by Lockheed. この攻撃に関わる人材は数百人と見られ中国政府が最近のサイバー攻撃の背後にいると見られている。ぐぐるやEMC、ロッキード ・マーチンへの攻撃はその一環である。ロッキードの手がけるJSFの爆弾プログラムへのスパイ攻撃などが過去に起こっている
これ↓は今日のWSJに掲載されたブレジンスキーの中国論(?)元々はフォーリン・アフェアーズのために書かれた評論の 要約版だという。ブレジンスキーがここで言っているのは台頭する中国がアジアで管理不可能の覇権国にならないようにす るために、日本・韓国・ロシア・トルコ・エトセトラと協調して中国の動きをマネージすべきだという。 ブレジンスキーは中国脅威論者ではなかったように思うけれど、今頃こんな主張を持ち出すのは別の思惑のあるためではな いかと疑う。彼の世界観は欧州セントリックなもので・・(もともとわたすはアンチ・ブレジンスキーなので、彼の評論へ の見解には強いバイアスがあるけどw) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203413304577088881349304486.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEFTTopOpinion As China Rises, A New U.S. Strategy By ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI DECEMBER 14, 2011 We should embrace Russia, Japan and South Korea as we seek to manage the rise of China. 中国の台頭にあたり、アメリカは新戦略を採用すべき Byブレジンスキー WSJ、14日
In Asia, the U.S. role should be that of regional balancer and conciliator, replicating the role played by the U.K. in intra-European politics during the 19th and early 20th centuries. The U.S. can and should help Asian states avoid a struggle for regional domination by mediating conflicts and offsetting power imbalances among potential rivals. 英国が19世紀と20世紀初頭の欧州大陸の政治に対してそうしたように、アメリカはアジアにおいて地域のバランス(オブ パワー)の調停者として働くべきである。アジア地域の潜在的競合者間のパワー・インバランスをオフセットし、覇権国の 独占を避けるべくアジア諸国を支援すべきである。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- この評論では中国やアジアだけでなくその他の地域についてもブレジンスキー独自の(=歪んだw)見方が述べられている
エジプトの観光政策について、ムスリム同胞団他のお言葉 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.arabist.net/blog/2011/12/13/egypts-islamists-and-tourism.html EGYPT'S ISLAMISTS AND TOURISM "Tourists don't need to drink alcohol when they come to Egypt; they have plenty at home," a veiled Muslim Brotherhood candidate, Azza al-Jarf, told a cheering crowd of supporters on Sunday across the street from the Pyramids. ムスリム同胞団のAzza al-Jarfは日曜日に大衆に向けて演説して「観光客はエジプトでアルコールを飲む必要はない。 家に帰ればいくらでも飲める」と述べた。
"They came to see the ancient civilization, not to drink alcohol," she said, her voice booming through a set of loudspeakers at a campaign event dubbed "Let's encourage tourism." The crowd chanted, "Tourism will be at its best under Freedom and Justice," the Brotherhood's party and the most influential political group to emerge from the fall of Hosni Mubarak. 「観光客は古代文明の遺跡を見に来るので、アルコールを飲むために来るのではない。観光客はFJPの政策下で良く もてなされるだろう」 . . .
Also, clerics like Yasser Bourhami, influential among hard-line Salafis, are presenting ideas for restrictions on tourism. Bourhami calls it "halal tourism," using the term for food that is ritually fit under Islamic law. 強硬派SalafisのYasser Bourhamiは、観光客について語って「ハラル観光政策」をいっている。ハラルとはイスラムの 食物規制である
"A five-star hotel with no alcohol, a beach for women ? sisters ? separated from men in a bay where the two sides can enjoy a vacation for a week without sins," he said in an interview with private television network Dream TV. "The tourist doesn't have to swim with a bikini and harm our youth." 「5つ星ホテルにもアルコールは無し。ビーチでは女性区域と男性区域を分離することで罪のないバケーションを満喫できる。 観光客はビキニで泳いで我々の若者を害する必要はない」
警察関係者によると、Amraniのリュックサックは手榴弾で一杯であったという。3つだけが使われ、多くは使われずに残っていた。 The police source said Amrani’s rucksack was ‘full of grenades’, with many remaining unused after he pulled the pins out of just three. 終
The revelation will lead to critics of Belgium’s notoriously liberal criminal justice system questioning why he had been allowed back on the streets. ベルギーの司法制度はリベラル過ぎで有名みたい
Where did they get greandes? Even here in the US we don't hear about crooks getting grenades. - David Powell, Ocean City, NJ USA, 14/12/2011 3:30 コメ欄:こいつらどこで手榴弾を手に入れたんだ?アメリカでさえ、悪党共が手榴弾を持ってるなんて聞いたことないぞ
ttp://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j5qnf9BVLflhbToWg4K5pb_nNkCg?docId=fc7491e5914344468968d81d9c560b81 Russia, China, India and other nations maintain larger-scale trade with Iran, whose energy exports have helped it shrug off serious harm from four rounds of U.N. sanctions and other penalties applied by individual countries or the European Union. But a number of U.S. allies also import Iranian oil, from Japan and South Korea in Asia to economic strugglers Greece, Spain and Italy in Europe.
ロシア、中国、インドなどは大規模なイランとの通商があり、EU加盟国にもこの制裁の影響を受ける可能性のある国がある。 アメリカの同盟国である日本や韓国もイラン石油を輸入しており、ギリシャ、イタリア、スペインなどと同じく影響を受ける 可能性がある。(AP,US ups Iran sanctions, could target central bank By BRADLEY KLAPPER, Associated Press ? 9 hours ago)
犯人は事件前に現金を妻の口座に送金していた Before carrying out the attack, Nordine Amrani then transferred cash to his wife's account その時に添えられていた言葉↓ with the words "I love you my love. Good luck."
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The euro dropped below the key $1.30 level against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday after Italy had to pay a euro-era high yield to sell five-year bonds. The euro fell 0.3% to $1.2995 in recent trade. Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com, said that $1.30 is "a key psychological level for the single currency and hasn't been breached for 11 months." "If we see it fall through here, it signals a couple of things: first, the debt crisis has escalated and second, market sentiment toward euro-based assets has taken another turn for the worse," she wrote in emailed comments. 「もしこのまま下落が続くなら、幾つかの事を意味するわけで、第一には欧州負債危機の深刻化、第二には市場のセンチメント のユーロ建て金融資産に関わるものが打撃を受ける・・」とForex.comの調査部長であるKathleen Brooksがコメントしている、
国内メディアは報道しないけれど、中国の不動産価格の現状と見通しについては There are many, many more bits of data and reportage on China’s real estate downturn wrapped up in this lengthy post from Tsinghua professor Patrick Chovanec, which is worth reading in full. In addition to the dramatic stories and numbers, Chovanec raises three key questions about the property price downturn. ttp://chovanec.wordpress.com/2011/12/12/china-data-part-1-real-estate-downturn/ China Data, Part 1: Real Estate Downturn DECEMBER 12, 2011
After a decade of soaring prices, signs are that China is facing its first real estate crash ・・・ “The government is in a very difficult position,” says Tao Ran, an economics professor at Renmin university in Beijing. “If they relax macro-economic policy the bubble will get worse. But if they don’t relax policy then the bubble will pop and the economy will stall.”
Obama trailed Mitt Romney by 5 points, 43 percent to 48 percent and trailed Newt Gingrich by 3 points, 45 percent to 48 percent, in the survey of these 12 battleground states It’s a pretty big deal. 大統領選の主要な戦場であるスウィング州にフォーカスした世論調査で、オバマ大統領はロムニー候補に5ポイント、ギング リッチ候補に3ポイントの遅れをとっている。これは(オバマ陣営にとって)大変悪いデータである。
While Obama continues to tie or lead national polls, his performance in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin matters more. And there, things are not so good for the incumbent. Part of the gap with the national numbers can be explained by the fractious, boom-and-bust Republican nominating process. While the overwhelming number of Democrats in deep-blue states already know who their nominee will be next year, Republicans are still squabbling amongst themselves in bright-red states like Georgia and Texas. That will change after there is a nominee and the national number for the GOP standard bearer will even out. 全国平均の世論調査ではオバマ大統領は共和党候補にタイ或いはリードを保つが、コロラド、フロリダ、アイオワ、ミシガン、 ネバダ、ニューハンプシャー、ニューメキシコ、ノースカロライナ、オハイオ、ペンシルバニア、バージニア、ウイスコンシン の各州での彼の得票率の良し悪しがより重要である。これらの州では現職候補にとって状況は良くない。全国平均とこれらの スウィング州との差異は、部分的には共和党の候補選びプロセスのgdgdによるもので民主党よりの州では有権者は候補者につい てよく知っており、共和党に方は依然として本命が決まらないので有権者の支持が固まらない。こうした状況は共和党大統領候 補が確定すれば変化する。
But the biggest problem for Obama is that he is underperforming his national number by so much in the swing states. Compared to his national number, his score falls by 4 points against Gingrich and 5 points against Romney. While Obama believes he can drive down the support for whoever the Republican nominee may be, it seems unlikely that he can get his own numbers up very much. オバマ大統領陣営にとって大きな問題であることは全国平均に比べてスウィング州の支持率の低いことである。両者の差異は ロムニー候補との比較で5ポイント、ギングリッチ候補との比較で4ポイントである。この支持率を大きく向上させうことは容 易ではない。
The overarching Obama miscalculation seems to have been that he needed to burn his political capital to get something big done with Democratic supermajorities in the Congress. The first miscalculation was that the legislation would be popular. It is not. The second miscalculation was on how many seats his party would lose in the midterms. Had Obama lost the same number as Ronald Reagan did in 1982 (26) or even Bill Clinton did in 1994 (54), the Democratic plan might have worked better. That’s certainly the range Team Obama was thinking about as the president and his crew mostly stayed out of the fight as incumbent Democrats sent out distress signals. But with a 63-seat shellacking, Obama was not able to pivot to anything except a battle over debt, deficits and spending. Even if Obama had found it in himself to moderate after midterms as Reagan and Clinton had done he was faced with the most Republican house since the 1920s.
Obama won all 12 of the swing states in 2008, but how many of them will he win again?
He has structural advantages and history on his side in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (though all three states skewed heavily Republican statewide in 2010). Polls and electoral trends suggest the president is unlikely to prevail in Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina. That leaves Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia as the swingingest swing states and Obama trailing in electoral votes 245 to 242 with 51 up for grabs. And there, team Obama will be counting on the most expensive, aggressive and negative re-election campaign ever waged. And that’s where there’s real trouble in the poll for Obama in this poll.
コモディティの一斉下落について、WSJのマーケットビートのコメント ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/12/14/meanwhile-commodities-having-faces-ripped-off/?mod=WSJBlog Nymex crude, which hit $100 a barrel yesterday while Iran splashed around in the Strait of Hormuz, is down $3.35, more than 3%, to less than $97 a barrel. Brent crude is off 2.8%. Gold, meanwhile, continues to aggressively fail as a safe haven, off 3.6% at last check, starting to bump up against the floor of $1600 an ounce. Silver is being shredded even more, falling 7% to $28.95 an ounce.
We here at MarketBeat don’t really buy the theory that yesterday’s selloff in stocks and commodities had all that much to do with the Fed not announcing QE3 ? nobody in their right mind expected that. This certainly has the hallmarks of a market disappointed that the Fed will keep its liquidity hoses flowing at current rates, rather than opening them up wider. But given the slow murdering of the euro taking place, this feels a little bit more like a worry that Europe is again spinning out of control, with policy makers unable or unwilling to do much to help, with repercussions for global growth ? and commodities demand. Witness Dr. Copper, the commodity with a PhD in economics, down 3.8% to $3.31 a pound.
“Parity with the dollar next year is not out of the question,” said Mather in a phone interview Wednesday. “I am more bearish on the euro now than three months ago.” With over $1 trillion assets globally under management, Pimco is one of the world’s biggest asset management firms and includes the world’s biggest bond fund in its stable.
Mather said “there are lots of ways” to get the euro to one dollar, including a severe economic recession, a breakup of the euro zone, or defaults on debt by euro-zone countries other than Greece. “Nothing is sure but the euro should have a substantially higher risk premium,” he said. Mather said the euro could have a relief rally if the European Central Bank adopts a “quantitative easing” approach and buys Italian and Spanish bonds on a massive and unlimited scale. But the euro’s bounce could be short-lived as that policy shift, tantamount to printing new money?could hurt the euro in the longer term.
ttp://www.hoover.org/publications/defining-ideas/article/102756 December 14, 2011 Auf Wiedersehen to European Unity by Russell A. Berman (Senior Fellow and member of the Working Group on Islamism and the International Order) 欧州統合へのアウフヴィーダ−ゼーヘン by Russell A. Berman
The conclusion of the Brussels summit seemed to bring the lingering crisis of the Euro and the European economies a big step closer toward a resolution. All the key players could declare victory: French President Nicolas Sarkozy has protected the large French banks from exposure to southern European sovereign debt; German Chancellor Angela Merkel has succeeded in establishing the expectation of disciplined budgeting; and even British Prime Minister David Cameron, whose principles or recalcitrance?depending on your perspective?has led to the United Kingdom’s isolation within Europe, was able to return to London to the applause of the many Euroskeptics in his party and the public at large. フランス大統領は南欧州諸国の国債を抱える自国の銀行を守護し、ドイツ首相は均衡財政の規律を死守し、英国首相は欧州大陸 からの孤立化を選んでロンドンに帰る。そういう欧州サミットで、全てのプレイアーは自国の勝利を宣言した。
●Is the UK sliding out of the European community and toward international irrelevance?
●It's important to understand what European leaders did not achieve at the summit.
●The viability of the Euro is by no means assured.
The British Prime Minister was unwilling to see the British economy take a hit in order to participate in the inevitably forthcoming European regulatory regime with its high taxes. Was Cameron pursuing national self-interest? Perhaps, but so were Merkel and Sarkozy, in their own ways. Nonetheless, the English Channel continues to measure the distance between the neo-liberalism of the United Kingdom and the continental preference for regulation.
ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schadenfreude English equivalents Little-used English words synonymous with schadenfreude have been derived from the Greek word epichairekakia (?πιχαιρεκακ?α) Another phrase with a meaning similar to Schadenfreude is "morose delectation" ("delectatio morosa" in Latin), meaning "the habit of dwelling with enjoyment on evil thoughts".[8] The medieval church taught morose delectation as a sin.[9][10] French writer Pierre Klossowski maintained that the appeal of sadism is morose delectation.[11][12]
An English word of similar meaning is "gloating", where "gloat" is defined as "to observe or think about something with triumphant and often malicious satisfaction, gratification, or delight" (gloat over an enemy's misfortune).[13]
The philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer mentioned Schadenfreude as the most evil sin of human feeling, saying famously "To feel envy is human, to savor schadenfreude is devilish."[23]
Susan Sontag's book "Regarding the Pain of Others", published in 2003, is a study of the issue of how the pain/misfortune of some affects others, namely whether war photography and war paintings can be helpful as anti-war tools or if they only serve some sense of schadenfreude in some viewers.
これはWSJに寄稿された、マーチン・フェルドシュタインの評論で欧州債務危機と先の欧州サミットを論じていて なかなか興味深いもの。現在の欧州債務危機の対策対応は、個々の国ごとに事情が異なるから個別的であるべきも のであって、欧州全体の財務統合と政治統合を唱え規律強化を強いるだけでは解決できない、という。これはメル ケル・サルコジ路線への正面からの否定で、説得力のあると思える主張。 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203893404577098252697593684.html The Euro Zone's Double Failure By MARTIN FELDSTEIN ECEMBER 15, 2011 Europe needs country-by-country fiscal reforms, not a renewed push for political integration. 欧州債務危機対応の二重の失敗:欧州諸国は個別の国ごとの対応が必要で、政治統合のプッシュは不要である By MARTIN FELDSTEIN WSJ寄稿評論 15日
・イタリアの経済と財政を見ると、財政赤字はGDPの4%以下でIMFはイタリアが2013年に均衡予算に復帰できると予測してい る。イタリア経済はGDPの2%成長を確保できれば、国家の負債は15年をへずして60%以下に出来る。(年金改革や労働市場 の改革により) ・これに比べてギリシャはGDPの9%の財政赤字、8%の国際収支の赤字を抱え、GDPそのものが年率5%を超える速度で減少して いる。ギリシャはドイツと同じグループに留まることは無理で、デフォルトを実行し、ユーロを離脱してドラクマに戻り競 争力回復を計る以外に解決策はない。(Greece should default on its debt, leave the euro zone, and return to a more competitive drachma.)
・ECBが現時点でイタリアやスペインの国際を大幅に買いますことはイタリアやスペインの国内経済の改革のインセンティブを 低めるだけである。それに、ECBはマーストリヒト条約でそういうオペレーションを禁じられている(ECBによる救済の禁止 条項) ・ECBの融資によるIMFによるイタリア(やスペイン)国債の買入れというオプションのほうが現実的であろう ・イタリアの経済改革はIMFの支援を得て増税と経費削減をすすめ、国債のロールオーバーに対してキャッシュでなく新規国債 で応じるなどの対応が必要。(Italy could cut spending and raise taxes to eliminate the deficit and then repay the maturing debt with new bonds rather than cash)財政の健全化は充分可能。
The Merkel-Sarkozy team should recognize that they have been on the wrong track. Europe needs country-by-country fiscal reforms and not a renewed push for a fiscal union and political integration. メルケル・サルコジ・チームは誤った政策をとっていることを知るべきである。欧州に必要であることは個別の国ごとの 財政改革であって、欧州の財政統合と政治的統一をまた再びプッシュすることではない。