WSJのポリティカル・ダイアリー、サラ・ペイリンの大統領選不出馬声明を評して -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203476804576614970207894608.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEFTThirdBucket OCTOBER 6, 2011, 12:36 P.M. ET Palin's Patriotic Choice By ALLYSIA FINLEY Sarah Palin finally announced yesterday that she wouldn't run for president, and her decision was perhaps one of the most patriotic of her political career. サラ・ペイリンの愛国的な選択:昨日サラ・ペイリンは最終的に大統領選不出馬を発表した。彼女の意思決定は、おそらく 彼女の政治的キャリアの中でも、最も愛国的なものであろう By ALLYSIA FINLEY
Her celebrity candidacy would likely have turned the GOP nominating contest into a circus and distracted many voters from the substantive policy debates and differences between the candidates.
To be sure, Mrs. Palin had her supporters and would have drawn some tea party voters in Iowa and South Carolina. But by further splitting the tea party vote, she would have made Mr. Romney's path to the nomination easier. Regardless of what her detractors may say about her, she had enough wisdom not to do that.
ギリシャのユーロ離脱や、ユーロ圏のブロック単位での分裂は其のコストや混乱が大きすぎるとして: The better solution would be to return to the euro's original principles, this time with a system that can convince markets that there is genuine discipline. The various funds and ECB bond-buying plans are not such discipline. They may buy short -term confidence, but they will not assure lenders or taxpayers that the same cycle won't repeat itself.
The first step toward imposing such discipline would be a Greek default with haircuts for creditors. This would allow Athens to reduce its debt burden and once again have the capacity to grow, assuming it changes its policies. This will be painful for Greece and the banks that lent to Greece, but not nearly as painful as a breakup of the euro zone or more years of continuing the current bailout patchwork.
According to a recent Pew Research Center analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data, as of 2009 some 37% of 18-to-29-year-olds were either unemployed or out of the workforce, the highest share among this age group in nearly four decades. In addition, a 2009 Pew Research survey found that among 22- to 29-years-olds, one-in-eight say that, because of the recession, they have boomeranged back to live with their parents after being on their own.
2009年には18-29歳人口の約37%が失業者かout of the workforce (ニート?)、その割合は40年間で最大 また、この不況のせいで、22-29歳人口の8人に1人が親元へboomeranged backしてる、と
Sighs of relief all round as the non-farm payrolls report for September steps lightly over an expectations bar that was just inches above ground. 雇用統計が予想より良好であったので、ほっと安堵の溜息が。雇用データは予想をやや上回って、地表から数インチ上昇;
That is why the Wall Street protesters are foolish and petulant. American households levered a $6 trillion net inflow of foreign savings during the decade 1998 through 2007 into a bubble that benefited them far more than it did Wall Street. The impact of the bubble on the household balance sheet exceeds the growth in real-estate assets, moreover, because most small business expansion followed the housing bubble. 1998−2007の10年間にアメリカの家計セクターはバブル時代の成長で6兆ドルのネットインフローを得ていて(注1)、それはウオール 街の得たものより大きい。(注2)バブルの家計セクターへの影響は不動産資産の成長を超えている。ほとんどの中小企業は、このハウ ジングバブル時代に成長拡大している。
For fifteen years we rode a tsunami of foreign capital pouring into American markets. We didn’t save a penny. Why should we? Our home equity was our retirement account. Our smartest kids got MBAs and went to Wall Street derivatives desks. Engineering was for dummies. Home prices rose so fast that local governments swam with tax revenues and hired with abandon. Everybody went to the party. Now everybody has a hangover, especially the bankers. We thought we were geniuses because we won the lottery. Now we actually have to produce and export things, and we have to play catch-up. Our kids are competing with Asian kids who go to cram school and practice the violin in the afternoon. This isn’t going to be easy, and the sooner we decide to roll up our sleeves and get back to work instead of looking for bankers to blame, the better our chances of coming back. 15年間に渡る海外からアメリカへの資本流入のためにアメリカは貯蓄に励むことがなかった。その必要がなかった。我々の住宅資産が 退職後の蓄えである。頭のよい子はMBAをとってウオール街でデリバティブ・デスクの仕事につく。この時代にはエンジニアリングはお 馬鹿のやる仕事で、住宅価格の急上昇で地方自治体の税収も急増、全ての人が(バブル)パーティを楽しんでいた。今日ではすべての人 が二日酔いに苦しむが、特に銀行はそうである。我々はくじに当たったために自分を天才だと思っていた。今では我々は実際にモノを作 って輸出する必要がある。我々はキャッチアップに励まなくてはならない。我々の子供たちはアジアの子供たちと競争していて、その子 たちは放課後に塾やバイオリンのお稽古にゆく。これはたやすい競争ではないので我々は腕まくりして仕事に取り組まなくてはいけない。 アメリカのより良いカムバックのチャンスのためには銀行を非難するのではなく、そういう仕事をする必要がある。
フィッチは格下げについて「イタリア政府が当初、危機封じ込めに消極的だったことにより、市場の信認が損なわれた」とコメント した。フィッチは同日、スペイン国債も「ダブルAプラス」から「ダブルAマイナス」に2段階引き下げた。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/10/07/fitch-cuts-spain-italy-credit-ratings/?mod=WSJBlog OCTOBER 7, 2011, 12:22 PM ET Fitch Cuts Spain, Italy Credit Ratings
Fitch cut Spain’s long-term credit rating to “AA-” from “AA+.” It cut Italy to “A+” from “AA-.” This isn’t having a huge impact on the market, but it does seem to be shaking optimism a little bit.
The process of rebalancing the Spanish economy is well underway but is not yet complete and Fitch expects it to weigh more heavily on economic growth over the medium term. The agency projects annual economic growth to remain below 2% through to 2015 and unemployment to remain high. Despite the important measures already adopted by the government, further structural reform will be necessary to further enhance the competitiveness and productivity of the economy. The fundamental weakness of the labour market, as underscored by an unemployment rate in excess of 20%, is a material rating weakness relative to European and high-grade peers. Nonetheless, while the recovery over the medium term will be lacklustre, Fitch expects the long-term (ie, post-2015) potential growth rate to exceed the average for the euro area as a whole.
Despite the weakened risk profile, Fitch views Spanish sovereign solvency as secure. Under the agency’s baseline scenario, the debt to GDP ratio will peak at 72% of GDP in 2013, well below the forecast euro area average of 89% in 2013. Spain’s ‘AA-’ rating reflects strong fundamentals: a diversified, high-value-added economy and strong governance. The government’s policy response has been credible and aggressive.
U.S. bank exposure to the European debt crisis is estimated at $640 billion, nearly 5% of total U.S. banking assets, according to recent research papers written for Congress. 議会調査局の最近の報告書に依ればアメリカの銀行の欧州へのイクスポージャーは6400億ドルで、アメリカの銀行の全資産の5% 程度である。
While U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner says the U.S. banking sector’s vulnerability to the euro zone problems is “very limited,” the Congressional Research Service estimate is one of the first public assessments provided by the U.S. government that quantifies the potential risks. 先に財務長官のガイトナーはアメリカの銀行のイクスポージャーは「大変限定的」としていたが具体的数字が公表されたのは始めて
“Given that U.S. banks have an estimated loan exposure to German and French banks in excess of $1.2 trillion and direct exposure to the PIIGS valued at $641 billion, a collapse of a major European bank could produce similar problems in U.S. institutions,” the research service warned lawmakers. The PIIGS?Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain?have come under increasing attack by markets fearing unsustainable government debts and weak financial sectors. 報告書は「アメリカの銀行がフランスとドイツについて持つイクスポージャーが1.2兆ドルであることから、PIIGSへの直接的なイクス ポージャーは6410億ドルであるが、ヨーロッパの大型銀行が崩壊すればアメリカの銀行にも大きな影響があり得る」としている。
Senator Mark Kirk, (R., Ill.) asked Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner at a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing Thursday if the U.S. is about to experience another “Lehman Brothers situation” because of euro-zone contagion. Geithner said “absolutely not.” 共和党のMark Kirk上院議員は財務長官に欧州負債危機が「新たなリーマンショック」になるのではと尋ねた。ガイトナー財務長官は 「決してそうならない」と答えている
“The direct exposure of the U.S. financial system to the countries under the most pressure in Europe is very modest…very limited,” the Treasury Secretary told the committee. Besides, Geithner added, U.S. banks have much stronger capital positions than in 2008, when Lehman Brothers collapsed. 「負債危機で問題を抱える国へのアメリカの銀行の持つイクスポージャーは大変ささやかなもので限定的」としている。
The research service papers note their figure is only a rough guess. It includes two types of assets, direct holdings such as loans, and “other potential exposures” such as derivative contracts, guarantees and credit commitments. Analysts say the estimate could be much higher or lower because it’s hard to quantify exactly “other potential exposures.” For example, a bank could hold two different derivative contracts that effectively cancel each other out. 議会調査局の報告書の数字は、おおまかな推測である。それは直接のローンなどの保有と「その他の潜在的イクスポージャー」つまり デリバティブ契約、債務保証、クレジットコミットメントなどを推定している。これらは厳密な数字の把握が難しい面があって予測 は上下にぶれることがあり得るという。
The CRS says, however, there are two other factors that could cause a dramatic reassessment. “Depending on the exposure of non-bank financial institutions and exposure through secondary channels, U.S. exposure to Greece and other euro-zone countries could be considerably higher,” the CRS said. 議会調査局はこの他に二つのファクターがフォラマティックな結果につながり得るという。「ノンバンク金融機関のイクスポージャー やセカンダリーチャネル経由のイクスポージャー」がそれで、アメリカのイクスポージャーが増大し得る
The estimate doesn’t include U.S. bank exposure to European bank portfolios that include assets in the weak member countries. Also, it doesn’t account for euro-zone assets held by money market, pension, and insurance funds.
ダウは最後の30分で120ポイントほど下落してマエナス領域に。ボラタイルな値動きで不安定さが残る。 ttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-market-applauds-jobs-report-2011-10-07?dist=afterbell “We have a market that is stuck in no-man’s land, we’ve been in the same range for two months, roughly 1,100 to 1,200 on the S&P 500 SPX. We’re not oversold, we’re not overbought, we’re right where we should be headed into the weekend,” Hogan added. “The market is giving up gains as market participants are conscious of making large bets going into the weekend, so it’s not surprising to see a flattening of positions,” said Hogan.
9月雇用統計への今日の市場のリアクションは: “It’s positive news, it’s not a robust number but expectations were relatively low. It’s not enough to make a dent in the unemployment rate, but it indicates we’re not moving into a recession, which some have been pricing into the market,” said Brad Sorensen, director of market and sector analysis at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.
Moody’s Investors Service has today placed Belgium’s Aa1 local and foreign currency government bond ratings on review for possible downgrade, while affirming its short-term ratings at Prime-1. The main drivers that prompted the rating review are:
(1) The material increase in long-term funding risks for euro area sovereigns with high levels of public debt, such as Belgium, as a result of the sustained fragility in the wholesale finance environment for euro sovereigns and banks stemming from the sovereign debt crisis.
(2) Risks of a deterioration of the public debt trajectory in light of increasing downside risks to economic growth.
(3) The uncertainty around the impact on the already pressured balance sheet of the government of additional bank support measures which are likely to be needed.
Moody’s review will evaluate the weight of these growing risks in light of the country’s high rating but also relative to the country’s strong credit features such as the economy’s net creditor status, high savings rate and the absence of substantial structural imbalances.
There’s no particularly good news in these numbers. For every glimmer of good news, like the upward revisions to previous reports totaling 100,000 new jobs or so, there’s an offsetting piece of bad news, like the broad U6 unemployment rate jumping up to 16.5% from 16.2%. 9月の雇用統計では前月の数字が上向き改定され、新規雇用が10万人程度になって、一見良さげに見えるけれど細部を見ると良いニュース とは言えないことが解る。例えばU6失業率(*注1)は16.2%から16.5%に増えている
And the number of people unemployed for more than six months is now 6.24 million ? up by 208,000. The long-term unemployed ? the least employable of the unemployed, and the most intractable problem in terms of getting America back to work ? are now 44.6% of the total, up from 42.9% last month, and 41.8% a year ago. 6ヶ月以上の失業状態の人は624万人で20.8万人増えている。就業可能な長期失業者は42.9%から44.6%に増えている。一年前は41.8% であった
It’s always a bit dangerous to try to meld the two surveys which make up the payrolls report, but I’m detecting a trend here: insofar as employers are hiring new people, they’re hiring new entrants into the labor force, rather than people making up the ranks of the unemployed. Maybe it’s recent graduates, maybe it’s former stay-at-home moms who were never claiming unemployment but who are now getting jobs. Maybe it’s immigrants. But the big picture is that employment growth is more or less keeping track with population growth, leaving no new jobs for the 14 million unemployed Americans. こうした数字から断定するのは危険ではあるが私はここに傾向があると思う。雇用者側は労働市場へ新規参入した人を雇っていて、長く 失業状態にある人を雇っていない。新規に雇用された人というのは学校を卒業した人とか、以前は仕事を探していなかった既婚女性とか あるいは移民の人かも知れない。いずれにせよ、雇用の伸びというのは人口の伸びと歩調をあわせている。それは1400万人の失業者を そのままにしている。
It’s worth asking, in this context, whether Obama’s jobs bill would actually change that dynamic at all. It might help at the margin ? if you’re working hard enough to burn through the fat reserves of highly-qualified graduates and moms and immigrants, you might eventually start cutting into the hard muscle mass of the long-term unemployed. But my gut feeling is that the effect of the jobs bill will be much bigger on employment figures than on unemployment figures. このコンテキストで、オバマ大統領の雇用創出法案が労働市場のダイナミクスを帰ることが出来るかを考えてみることは意味なしでは ない。この法案が全く効果がないとは言えない。高いクオリフィケーションのある卒業生とか既婚女性とか移民には助けになるかもし れない。しかしこの法案は失業率の数字にではなく就業率の数字に影響があるのだろうと思う。
Is there anything the government can do to bring unemployment down? Or is it now too late? If we are indeed in the early months of a double-dip recession, than I think it is too late: unemployment is more likely to go up than it is down from here. And even if the economy’s still managing to eke out modest growth, I don’t see much hope that the unemployment rate will come down to a remotely acceptable level any time soon. Realistically, America’s unemployed are here to stay. And we’re only just beginning to understand how that’s going to affect the political economy of the nation. 失業率の数字を下げるために政府のできることはあるのだろうか? 或いは時既に遅しなのだろうか? もしも我々がダブルディップ リセッションに向かうのであれば、私は時既に遅しだと思う。失業率は多分増大するだろう。また経済が穏やかな成長を維持できる場合 であっても、私は失業率改善に多くを期待できないと思う。失業率が受け入れ可能なレベルに下がるようなことは当分なさそうだ。リア リスティックに言って、アメリカの高い失業率は継続するだろう。我々はそれが、国の政治経済にどういう影響があるのかを理解し始め たばかりである。
*注1 雇用統計では失業者のカテゴリーをU1からU6まで分けて数字を出していて、この定義は: U1: Percentage of labour force unemployed 15 weeks or longer. U2: Percentage of labour force who lost jobs or completed temporary work. U3: Official unemployment rate per the ILO definition occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks. U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them. U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently. U6: U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but cannot due to economic reasons (underemployment).
「ウオール街を占拠せよ」運動の人達から見れば、オバマ大統領は「期待に反して右側に日和った大統領で信頼できない」という評価 なので、この運動の中に「オバマ支持」をいう声が殆ど見られない。このあたりの事情についてワシントン・ポストのコラムニストで ある Dana Milbankが書いていて:
ttp://www.newsleader.com/article/20111008/OPINION02/110080307 Liberal activists who rallied behind Obama in 2008 watched as he defied their wishes and instead made unrequited concessions to the Republicans. "Every one in this crowd, I am certain, has had disappointments and frustrations with this White House," Robert Borosage, a director of the Campaign for America's Future, told the audience as he convened the annual gathering of liberal activists in Washington last week. He accused Obama of being "too cautious," "pre-compromised," criticizing his performance on jobs, global warming, defense and foreign policy.
リベラル活動家は2008年大統領選挙でオバマ支持の運動をしたが、(彼らから見ると)其の希望がオバマ大統領の共和党への妥協の 為に失望に変わった。「Campaign for America's Future」の指導者であるRobert Borosageは「我々の運動の参加者は、私には良く 解ったいることだが、ホワイトハウスに失望とフラストレーションを抱えている」とワシントンのリベラル活動家の集会で先週述べ ている。彼はオバマ大統領を非難して「あまりにもためらいがち」「最初から妥協している」と述べ、大統領の地球温暖化問題や軍 事外交政策ヘの不満を表明した。
Yet, the most striking thing about the progressives' gathering was how little Obama was mentioned, and how dismissive the few mentions were. ウオール街を占拠せよ運動はじめリべラル活動家の集会では、驚くべきことにオバマ大統領についてはほとんど言及されることがない。 それが言及される場合には、大変否定的である事に驚かされる。 (Can Obama strike alliance with Occupy Wall Street? 11:04 PM, Oct. 7, 2011 )
BEIJING, Oct. 8 (Xinhua) -- As union members and university students in other parts of the United States joined the protest, the Occupy Wall Street protesters in New York have given their movement a broader national dimension. Analysts told Xinhua that the massive movement has exposed some underlying problems plaguing the U.S. society and may have the potential of influencing U.S. government's policy decisions. 大学生や組合員が参加して「ウオール街を占拠せよ」抗議行動が拡大している。この運動は各地に飛び火して全米的な動きになりつつ 有る。アナリストは新華社に告げて、この大衆抗議行動はアメリカ社会の持つ問題点を浮き彫りにするものという。この運動はアメリ カ政府の政策に影響をあたえることがあり得るという。
The majority of the protesters are left-leaning young people under 30. The economic woes left many of them jobless, deeply in debt or even their homes foreclosed. Analysts predict the protests will grow bigger in a short time. Lu Xiaobo, professor of political science at Columbia University, told Xinhua that discontented residents in about 150 cities are going to stage demonstrations within this week, spreading the event across the nation. scale. この運動の主要な勢力は左翼的な傾向の30歳以下の若者である。経済の低迷が多くの失業者をうみ、また(バブル消滅で)住宅ローン を支払えない人が増えている。アナリストは抗議行動が短期間に拡大すると予想している。コロンビア大学政治学教授の Lu Xiaoboは 新華社に告げて150の都市で抗議行動が計画されているという。(後略)
"In my office, the Occident perishes 10 times a day," he said. 私のオフィスでは西洋は毎日10回死んでる
In the 1980s, there was a pool of 600,000 young men; today, there is a pool of 600,000 young men and women combined. 1980年代には、軍隊には60万人の若い男のプールがあったが、今では男女合わせて60万
こういう記事があちこちのブログで議論されているようなのだけれど、ソースがブログ(ワイアード、デンジャーゾーン) で(少なくともまだ)通信社や新聞社の事実確認とかがされていないような。とりあえず留保だけど、ちょっと気になる。 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/10/virus-hits-drone-fleet/ Exclusive: Computer Virus Hits U.S. Drone Fleet By Noah Shachtman October 7, 2011 | 1:11 pm 独占報道:米軍の無人航空機(の遠隔操縦基地)にコンピュータウイルス感染 By Noah Shachtman
A computer virus has infected the cockpits of America’s Predator and Reaper drones, logging pilots’ every keystroke as they remotely fly missions over Afghanistan and other warzones. 米軍の無人航空機、Predator や Reaperを操縦するコンピュータにウイルスが侵入して、アフガニスタン他の戦闘地域での無人航空機 を遠隔操縦しているコックピットに感染している。
The virus, first detected nearly two weeks ago by the military’s Host-Based Security System, has not prevented pilots at Creech Air Force Base in Nevada from flying their missions overseas. Nor have there been any confirmed incidents of classified information being lost or sent to an outside source. But the virus has resisted multiple efforts to remove it from Creech’s computers, network security specialists say. And the infection underscores the ongoing security risks in what has become the U.S. military’s most important weapons system. このウイルスは2週間前に米軍のホストベース機密保護システムで検知された。ネブラスカ州のクリーチ空軍基地で起こったが顕著な 事故などは起こっていない。また機密情報の漏洩も確認されていない。しかしウイルスは除去作業をくぐり抜けて存在していると基 地のネットワーク専門家が言っている。ウイルス感染は米軍の重要な攻撃システムの機密保護上大きな問題である、
“We keep wiping it off, and it keeps coming back,” says a source familiar with the network infection, one of three that told Danger Room about the virus. “We think it’s benign. But we just don’t know.” 「このウイルスは除去してもまた戻ってくる」とソースが語っている。
Military network security specialists aren’t sure whether the virus and its so-called “keylogger” payload were introduced intentionally or by accident; it may be a common piece of malware that just happened to make its way into these sensitive networks. The specialists don’t know exactly how far the virus has spread. But they’re sure that the infection has hit both classified and unclassified machines at Creech. That raises the possibility, at least, that secret data may have been captured by the keylogger, and then transmitted over the public internet to someone outside the military chain of command. このウイルスが、いわゆる「キイ・ロガー」であるかどうか確かではないが、ウイルスの感染範囲について確認されていない。このため キイ・ロガーによる機密情報の盗難の可能性が疑われる。
The Air Force declined to comment directly on the virus. “We generally do not discuss specific vulnerabilities, threats, or responses to our computer networks, since that helps people looking to exploit or attack our systems to refine their approach,” says Lt. Col. Tadd Sholtis, a spokesman for Air Combat Command, which oversees the drones and all other Air Force tactical aircraft. “We invest a lot in protecting and monitoring our systems to counter threats and ensure security, which includes a comprehensive response to viruses, worms, and other malware we discover.” However, insiders say that senior officers at Creech are being briefed daily on the virus. “It’s getting a lot of attention,” the source says. “But no one’s panicking. Yet.” 空軍はこのウイルスについてコメントを拒否している。空軍の広報官はポリシーとしてウイルスなどについてコメントしないとしている。 インサイダーに依ればクリーチ基地の上層部はウイルスについてブリーフィングを受けたという。ソースは「この件は注目されている」 という。「だがまだ誰もパニックにはなっていない」
Politicians have maneuvered their countries into an unparalleled situation in the euro crisis. And they already know what most voters don't yet suspect. In the end, only two possibilities will remain to save the beleagured common currency: an expensive transfer union or a smaller monetary union. Either solution will be extremely costly. By SPIEGEL Staff
Part 1: What Options Are Left for the Common Currency? どういうオプションが共通通貨には残されているのか? Part 2: Greece Adrift 漂流するギリシャ Part 3: Design Defects, Political Weakness, Public Disinterest 設計上の瑕疵、政治的な弱さ、有権者の関心喪失 Part 4: Are European Rescue Efforts Doomed to Fail? ヨーロッパの救済計画は失敗に向かうのか? Band-Aids Where Surgery Is Needed? 外科手術が必要なのにバンドエイドか? 'A Risk Bordering on Madness'? リスクと隣接する狂気 Do Only Two Possibilities Remain for Saving Euro? ユーロ救済の可能性は二つのみか? 'That Doesn't Look Not Dangerous' これは危険でないとは言えない
The second path is the more likely one. It will not be easier, and it might not be any less costly, either. First a firewall would have to be erected between the countries that are in fact insolvent and do not stand a chance of ever repaying their debts, like Greece, and others that have only a short-term liquidity problem. Then the banks would have to be provided with government funds, so that the financial system does not collapse when banks are forced to write off some of the government bonds on their balance sheets. Finally, the countries exiting the euro zone would require continued support, because Europe cannot simply look on as countries like Greece descend into chaos.
Obama’s circle of close advisers is as small as the cluster of personal friends that predates his presidency. There is no entourage, no Friends of Barack to explain or defend a politician who has confounded many supporters with his cool personality and penchant for compromise. Obama is, in short, a political loner who prefers policy over the people who make politics in this country work. オバマに身近なアドバイザーのサークルは小さなもので、大統領就任以前からの個人的な友人たちである。いわゆる大統領の取り巻き というのは無く、其のクールなパーソナリティや妥協の傾向に混乱させられる多くの支持者たちに、大統領を防御し、説明するような 友人というのがいない。オバマは簡単にいえば孤独な政治家で、この国を動かす人々よりも政策に関心がある
They pressed the president to think and talk about jobs ? the issue the public ranked as most important ? above all else. Instead, Obama chose health-care reform, a campaign pledge that promised him a place in American history and, in his technocratic take, would “bend the cost curve” of the country’s fiscal plight. 経済低迷の中で民主党の長老やアドバイザ−は雇用創出を考えるべきと忠告した。それが国民世論の最も高い優先順位の要求であった ためである。しかし、オバマは医療保険改革を選んだ。それはアメリカの歴史に彼の名を残す事になるテーマである。、
But inside the Beltway, the legacy of his relationship, or lack thereof, with Democrats on the Hill remains a problem for his jobs plan ? and, by extension, his political future. A senior Democratic strategist told my colleague Chris Cillizza recently that “the person running out of air most quickly” is Obama himself, and there may not be many who come to his rescue. *こうしたオバマのやり方が議会の民主党議員との関係を悪化させ、大統領の求めている雇用創出法案への民主党議員の支持が期待で きないのだという・・・
"Everyone's got a thing they want to protest, some of which is not realistic," Bloomberg said. "And if you focus for example on driving the banks out of New York City, you know those are our jobs ... You can't have it both ways: If you want jobs you have to assist companies and give them confidence to go and hire people." 「誰しも不満をぶちまけけたいという事はあろうが、その一部はリアリスティックではない。ニューヨークから銀行を追い出したいと いうような事は、銀行はNYCに雇用を提供しているのだから、それを守るなら追い出しとは両立しない。雇用を守るには企業を支援し 企業を信頼して、企業が雇用を増やすようにすべきだ」
"The protests that are trying to destroy the jobs of working people in this city aren't productive," Bloomberg said in his weekly radio appearance with John Gambling. Taking a swipe at "some of the labor unions participating," Bloomberg added that "their salaries come from ? are paid by ? some of the people they're trying to vilify." 「抗議行動はNYCの勤労者の雇用を破壊しようとしている。それは生産的ではない」「抗議行動には労組の一部が参加しているわけだが 彼らの給与は彼らの非難する企業から支払われている」
That resembled a refrain protesters have frequently aimed at the police: "my taxes pay your salary." "What they're trying to do is take away the jobs of people working in the city, take away the tax base that we have," Bloomberg said, adding that the protests could impact tourism. "We're not going to have money to pay our municipal employees or anything else." 「抗議行動の人はNYCの勤労者から雇用を取り上げようとしていて、税金の支払元を取り去ろうとしている」「そういう事なら、我々 は地方自治体の公務員などに支払うお金はなくなる」
The cost of protecting German government bonds against default surged to a fresh record this week. Credit default swaps reached almost 122 basis points on Tuesday, meaning it would cost the equivalent of $122,000 annually to insure $10m worth of German paper for five years. 今週、ドイツ国債のCDSが値上がりして木曜日に122ベーシスポイントになった。
Buying CDS protection on Germany can equate to betting that it will have to pick up the tab for bailing out Europe’s so-called peripheral nations, analysts say. The question of how much support Germany is willing to provide to weaker eurozone members has been a point of contention between European politicians, with fierce debate over the scale and method of bail-outs taking place. ドイツ国債のCDSの値上がりは、ユーロ周辺国の危機に対してドイツが支援せざるを得ないとの投資家の推測による。経済的に弱い ユーロ周辺国に対して、ドイツが何処までの支援を行うのかは疑問である。救済の手法や規模をめぐる禿げしいディベ−トが政治家 によって戦わされている。
Monument Securities’ chief economist Stephen Lewis says: “As we look at the way the debt crisis is evolving, core countries will no longer be seen as safe havens, because they will be sharing some of the problems of the poorer members.” Monument証券の主任ストラテジストであるStephen Lewisは「ヨーロッパの負債危機の進行で、今やEUのコア諸国といえどもセーフヘブン ではありえない。何故ならそれらの国は貧しいメンバー国の問題を一部負担しなければならないからだ」という
Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy will talk on Sunday in an attempt to reconcile the differences between Germany and France over how to tackle the eurozone financial crisis and fund an expected recapitalisation of European banks. ユーロ圏の負債危機への対応方法や、ヨーロッパの銀行の資本強化について、サルコジ大統領とメルケル首相が日曜日に会談し 両国の差異をすり合わせる。
Ms Merkel, the German chancellor, is resisting moves to leverage the funds available to the EFSF, to expand its capacity to buy eurozone sovereign bonds and provide precautionary loans to governments facing liquidity difficulties. France wants to maximise the firepower of the fund, to stem the danger of contagion from the financial crisis in Greece and other peripheral eurozone members. メルケル首相はEFSFのファンドをレバレッジしてユーロ圏の国債購入にあて、流動性枯渇に悩む国に先行的なローンを供与するという アイデアに抵抗している。フランスはEFSFのファンド最大化を望んでいて、ギリシャの危機の周辺国への感染を防ぐためにその資金力 を高めるよう望んでいる。
Another division between France and Germany has been apparent on plans to review the terms of private bondholders’ involvement in a further Greek rescue package, agreed in July by eurozone leaders. Germany is one of several eurozone countries trying to revise the terms of the deal, according to which banks and other financial institutions agreed to roll over or swap their bonds, taking a notional 21 per cent “haircut”, at a time when the Greek paper is trading far lower in financial markets. French officials accept that the private sector will have to make a bigger contribution to supporting Greece than the “haircut” on Greek sovereign debt already agreed. フランスとドイツの意見の相違はギリシャ救済に関わる民間の国債保有者に対する扱いやヘアカットなどの条件についても存在し、 ドイツはギリシャへの救済の条項の見直しを求めている。フランスはギリシャのヘアカットに否定的であるが民間企業に負担を求 める事は受け入れている(後略)
>>477 But her award was overshadowed by a remark she allegedly made to a Kenyan newspaper wherein she claimed HIV/AIDS was originally developed by Western scientists in order to depopulate Africa. Maathai later denied these claims
For liberals, the emergence of the Occupy Wall Street protests has been a welcome counterattack against the Tea Party movement that helped transform the political narrative of the last three years. They hope the clamor against “corporate greed” can drown out outrage about government spending and taxes and assist President’s Obama’s effort to win re-election on a soak-the-rich platform. So it’s no wonder the left-wing demonstrations have gotten encouragement from Obama and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi as well as garnering largely sympathetic coverage from the liberal mainstream press. 「ウオール街を占拠せよ」運動というのはリベラルにとってティーパーティへのカウンター・アタックとして歓迎すべきものなので 彼らはこれによって「強欲な企業」を糾弾しオバマ大統領の始めた富裕階級への攻撃によってオバマ再選に繋げたいという希望がある。 だから、抗議行動がオバマ大統領とナンシー・ペロシから激励の言葉を得ているのは不思議ではない。またリベラル系のメインストリ ーム・メディアは好意的な報道を続けている。
But the Democratic belief that this hodgepodge of aging hippies, youthful leftists and union thugs will turn the political tide in their favor ignores an all-too obvious truth: it is they who “own” the disastrous economy and depressing unemployment numbers. Today’s announcement the national rate of unemployment remains at 9.1 percent is a reminder the real narrative that will define the 2012 election is the one created by the statistics that paint a picture of an economy that won’t recover and may be heading for a double-dip recession. As much as the president and the Occupy Wall Street crowd may think they can blame it all on big business, the rest of America knows it is Obama who must shoulder the responsibility for the nation’s troubles. しかしながら民主党の企んでいる、古手のヒッピーや若い左翼のごちゃまぜの抗議行動が、政治潮流を反転させるというのはむしの良す ぎる話で、現今の経済の低迷や酷い失業率の高さというリアリティを無視している。失業率は9.1%と高く2012年大統領選挙に向けて重 要な要素であるが、景気はダブルディップ・リセッションに陥る恐れもある。オバマ大統領や抗議行動の人は、景気低迷を大企業の強欲 のせいにしたいようだが、アメリカ国民一般はオバマ政権が責任を追うべき問題であることを知っている。
As his recent speeches and second stimulus proposal have illustrated, Obama believes he can be re-elected by running against the Republican Congress for failing to tax the rich. But the idea the country’s economic difficulties can be blamed solely on the fact the wealthy aren’t taxed enough seems a stretch even for liberals. オバマ大統領の最近の演説が示唆するように、大統領の再選戦略というのは富裕層への増税法案を共和党支配の下院が拒否することを前 提にして、それを非難することで勝利できるというものだが、景気低迷の原因は富裕層への課税の足りないためではない。
The widely reported comparison with the Tea Party also breaks down when you consider when conservatives were venting their spleen about Obama and the Democratic Congress running roughshod over the Constitution with their health care and stimulus legislation, it was not the Republicans who were in charge of the government. While the street protests may be tapping into some of the genuine angst felt by the middle class about their future in a country with a slumping economy, the Democrats who have been cheering them on still largely run things. ウオール街を占拠せよ運動はティーパーティの抗議行動と頻繁に比較されているが、ティーパーティの抗議の元はオバマ大統領と民主党 支配の議会が医療改革や経済刺激政策において憲法無視に近い政策を取ったためであって、それが無視されている。街頭の抗議行動には 中間階級の経済の先行きに対する怒りが反映されている所があるかも知れないが、国の経済運営において民主党が依然重きをなしている のだ。
So as much as liberals may be happy about the effort to change the tone of the national conversation away from Tea Party outrage about spending to Occupy Wall Street’s anger about the rich, none of this can change the fact Americans will judge Obama on the state of the economy next year, not which protest movement is the flavor of the month. リベラル勢力はティーパーティの主張した財政問題から「ウオール街を占拠せよ」運動のお陰で、国内の話題が富裕層への怒りに変わる ことでハッピーであるようだが、アメリカ国民が次の大統領選挙で政権の経済運営の評価を下すことに変化はない。
Indeed, if there is any obstacle to the growth of the left-wing protests it is the presence of a hapless Democrat in the White House. Just as anti-war protests died down once Obama (who largely carried out Bush’s policies in Iraq and Afghanistan) took office, the Occupy Wall Street movement won’t really take off until there is a Republican president. Which means unless the unemployment and growth numbers undergo a radical shift for the better in the next 12 months, we can look forward to even larger and noisier anti-Wall Street demonstrations once Barack Obama is defeated. 実際のところ左翼抗議行動の成長を妨げるものはホワイトハウスを占拠している民主党の存在である。反戦運動はオバマの就任で死に 絶えた。「ウオール街を占拠せよ」運動は共和党の大統領が誕生するまでは、ほんとうの意味では離陸しない。今後12ヶ月の間に経済 成長と失業率が画期的に改善されない限り、我々は(共和党大統領と共に)より大きな、より騒がしい、アンチ・ウオール街の運動を 見ることになろう。その時にはオバマ大統領が敗退しているわけだが。
She is a key member of the Action Resource Education Network of Aotearoa (Arena), and is actively involved in researching and speaking out against the World Trade Organisation, the International Monetary Fund, free trade and corporate-led globalisation.
At its onset, the Tea Party did not have a clear voice. It has since developed an unflinching focus, and changed U.S. politics. If Wall Street occupiers want to take it to that level, they'll need to first zero in on a few attainable goals and tap those on their growing list of powerful friends, including Rep. Louise Slaughter and major labor unions, to develop a realistic strategy. Otherwise they'll likely fade away as quickly as they emerged.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy affirmed that "agreement is total" between France and Germany in a press conference from Berlin today. Sarkozy said that he and Merkel were confident the crisis will be solved "before the month is over." Both were short on details, however.
It appears as though disagreements about how to use the $590 billion available from the European Financial Stability Facility could still be complicating consensus between the two EU leaders. Merkel has argued that banks should turn first to their own investors to raise more cash. The French position advocates more activist use of EFSF funds to recapitalize banks across the eurozone.
Merkel and Sarkozy also alluded to greater fiscal consolidation in the eurozone, suggesting that treaty revisions could be a next step towards a more stable eurozone.
This press conference is unlikely to insure investors looking for concrete plans that the eurozone is nearing an endgame. However a meeting of G20 finance ministers later this week and EU leaders next week could prove more promising for markets.
>>>>It appears as though disagreements about how to use the $590 billion available from the European Financial Stability >>>> Facility could still be complicating consensus between the two EU leaders.
>>>>This press conference is unlikely to insure investors looking for concrete plans that the eurozone is nearing an endgame.
Mr. Sarkozy said that it was "not the moment" to go into the agreement's details but that the French-German accord "is total."
Asked whether all European banks would be recapitalized, Mrs. Merkel didn't directly answer the question, saying only that all banks across the euro zone would be measured by the same criteria that would be established in coordination with, among others, the European Banking Authority and the International Monetary Fund.
The chancellor said that banks must first seek to raise new capital on the market before turning to their government, insisting that the euro zone's newly strengthened ?440 billion ($590 billion) bailout fund would then only serve as a backstop if a member state couldn't cope with shoring up its banks' capital.
サルコジ・メルケル会談についてのFT記事、これは大変わかり易い(国内メディアの記者は全く解っていないと思う) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c3beacac-f29a-11e0-931e-00144feab49a.html#axzz1aFKZJHC6 Merkel and Sarkozy set euro deadline By Quentin Peel in Berlin October 9, 2011 6:27 pm メルケルとサルコジはユーロ危機救済策のデッドラインを設定 FT、9日
France and Germany have set themselves a deadline of the end of October to reach agreement on a comprehensive package of measures to stabilise the eurozone, including the recapitalisation of European banks if they need it. ドイツとフランスの首脳は、自らデッドラインを10月末と設定し、ユーロ圏の安定化のための救済パッケージをそれまでに 合意することと決めた。銀行の資本強化策が含まれる。 (略) The only concrete statement they made, however, was Ms Merkel’s announcement that “we are determined to do whatever is necessary for the recapitalisation of our banks”. There was no sign that the two governments had yet managed to resolve their tactical differences over whether the cash for such an exercise will come from national treasuries or from the ?440bn European Financial Stability Facility, the eurozone rescue fund. 記者会見での唯一の確固たるメッセ−ジはメルケル首相の「我々は銀行の資本強化のため必要なことは何でもやる」である。 独仏両国が4400億ユーロのEFSFの扱いについて意見の違いを解決したような兆候は見られない。
Ms Merkel also refused to be drawn on their plans to deal with the ongoing Greek financial crisis, saying simply: “We are working closely together on Greece.” She added that they were still waiting for a report from the troika of officials from the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank, on how to meet a growing financing gap in Athens. メルケル首相は進行中のギリシャ危機についての計画を質問され、詳細を答えることは拒否して簡単に「我々はギリシャ政府と親密に 行動している」とのみ答えた。更にトロイカ(ECB、IMF、EU)の報告を待っていると述べた。
The sustained haemorrhage of state bank deposits has swelled the unregulated shadow banking system to such a size that it now supplies more credit to the economy each month than the formal banks do, according to China Confidential, a research service at the Financial Times. This means that Beijing, which has wielded financial control as a key tool of Communist party power, now finds itself largely at the mercy of an unregulated collection of trust companies, private banks, kerb lenders and loan sharks.
Finance is not the only area in which Beijing’s ability to launch a counter-cyclical economic stimulus has ebbed. The ability of local governments, if asked again by Beijing, to boost investments is questionable. Their 2009-10 borrowing binge used land as its main form of collateral. But now land sales are declining sharply year-on-year in most cities, as property developers are hit by cash flow problems caused by a mixture of dwindling real estate sales and the hefty burden of servicing debts with shadow banks.
The level of distress felt by local governments ? and more particularly their roughly 10,000 investment companies nationwide ? is clear from the fact they have begun to sell off prized corporate assets at an unprecedented rate. Local units of the State Assets Supervision and Administration Commission sold off RMB3.31bn in corporate assets between January and July this year, up from RMB2.35bn in all of 2010.
1. The Queen Bee: Through a combination of charisma, force, money, looks, will and manipulation, this girl reigns supreme over the other girls and weakens their friendships with others, thereby strengthening her own power and influence.
2. The Side Kick: She notices everything about the Queen Bee, because she wants to be her. She will do everything the Queen Bee says. The Queen Bee, as her best friend, makes her feel popular and included.
3. The Floater: She has friends in different groups and can move freely among them. She has influence over other girls but doesn't use it to make them feel bad.
4. The Torn Bystander: She's constantly conflicted about doing the right thing and her allegiance to the clique. As a result, she's the one most likely to be caught in the middle of a conflict between two girls or two groups of girls.
5. The Pleaser/Wannabe/Messenger: She will do anything to be in the good graces of the Queen Bee and the Sidekick. When two powerful girls, or two powerful groups of girls, are in a fight, she is the go-between. However, the other girls eventually turn on her as well. She'll enthusiastically back them up no matter what. She can't tell the difference between what she wants and what the group wants.
So, China’s Golden Week was not as great for property sales as it usually is. Sales were down 32 per cent on the previous year in 20 major cities, Bloomberg tells us. Which has prompted a big fall for some property developers and financials, dragging down the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng. 中国は建国記念の黄金週間休日だったが、不動産市場の方は黄金色というわけにもゆかない模様で、主要20都市の不動産販売は、前年比 −32%、この大きな低下は上海株式市場の一部の不動産と金融セクターに影響を与えている。
Reuters has taken a long look at the problems faced by some of China’s local authorities. According to Chen Jun, a director at Chengdu Communications Investment Group, which built a giant version of Waterloo Station: “We’re still unable to reflect on our accounts the problems that may arise from our investments into Chengdu’s railroads,” Chen said. “What happens next is that we may face some trouble repaying our loans when many of them come due.”Chengdu Communications had liabilities of 18.9 billion yuan at the end of 2010 against current assets valued at 11.7 billion yuan. ロイターは、ウオタール−駅の巨大版を作った成都Communications Investment GroupのChen Junのコメントを伝えている。 「成都駅の投資による問題を、財務諸表に反映する事はまだできていない。繰延ローンの支払期日がくれんば問題に直面する可能性 がある」成都Communicationsは2010年末で18.9 billion元の債務があ人、これに対して資産総額の評価は 11.7 billion元である。
Chen is not unduly concerned. He thinks he has a solution, one local governments across China have also grasped: Real estate. Chen, the chairman of six other state companies in the city, intends to build huge residential and commercial projects around stations such as Waterloo ? with borrowed money, of course. 中国の地方政府はあまねく不動産開発に投資している。Chen Junは、この地方政府の他の6つの国営企業の会長であり鉄道駅の周辺に ウオータールーのような大規模な商業不動産と住宅用不動産の開発を進めている。その資金は勿論融資による。
Meanwhile James Kynge, author and editor of the FT’s China Confidential service, has come out with a doomy-ish oped in toda’s FT. He writes: FTの関連会社、チャイナ・コンフィデンシャルの編集者であるJames Kyngeは中国の、こうした状況に悲観的な記事を書いている。
At no time over the past three decades of “reform and opening” has Beijing’s control over the supply and price of credit in its economy been so tenuous. The reasons for its enfeebled position derive from the state-centric nature of its 2009-10 stimulus. They also help explain why a repeat would be hard to pull off. Kynge says that the shadow banking sector has now overtaken the formal banking sector for credit issuance, and therein lies the problem for the CCP: it’s not clear how these lenders ? the most well-regulated of which are trust companies ? will respond to government attempts to rein in expansion. 過去30年間の「改革開放」政策によって経済新興を目指す金利やマネタリー政策が取られてきたが2009−2010のリーマンショック後には 特にそれが著しく国家主導の開発が進められた。Kyngeによればいまでは地下銀行セクターが公的銀行セクターを凌駕している。これは 中国共産党にとって問題であって、政府の経済コントロールに対して、これらの貸し手がどう反応するのか定かではない。
Back to those falling property prices. Credit Suisse property analyst Jingsong Du told Bloomberg that developers had so far been holding off reducing their prices, but a turning point appears to have been reached. They are of course not helped by restrictions on speculative buying, put in place by a central government nervous of inflation and housing affordability. Which all means that many indebted local governments can’t continue to count on crazy high prices for land sales. 不動産価格の下落の問題にもどると、クレディ・スイスの不動産アナリストであるJingsong Duがブルームバーグに語って、不動産開発 業者は価格低下を抑えてきたという。しかし明らかにターニング・ポイントに達していて、政府の投機的価格抑制政策やインフレ抑制政 策の影響がある。このために多くの借金漬けの地方政府は基地外じみた価格での土地の販売に依存する事ができない。
Turns out there is a solution at hand: let local authorities issue debt independently, but only for projects under construction. From Xinhua: HANGZHOU ? Government of China’s eastern Zhejiang province will issue 8 billion yuan ($1.25 billion) worth of bonds to fund infrastructure this year, as part of a trial program of the central government to allow local governments to sell bonds directly. The issuance, consisting of 50-percent three-year bonds and 50-percent five-year bonds, has been ratified by the central government, according to the provincial government. この解決策として、地方政府は独立した債券を発行する事とし、ただしその条件は建設中の不動産に限定するという、新華社が報じて いる。浙江省政府は80億元の債券を発行し、それを直接販売する。3年債が50%、5年債が50%で既に中央政府に承認されているという。
The money will be used to fund city-level and county-level infrastructure projects that are under construction, especially low-income housing projects, said Qian Juyan, head of the Zhejiang Provincial Department of Finance. New projects will be strictly controlled from getting the fund. It is unclear when exactly the government will issue the bonds. However, it is a beginning of a shift in how local government’s projects are financed. (That’s Zhejiang, the prefecture of Wenzhou, the premier city for shadow banking). Three other regions will also take part in the trial. 債券は建設中の都市や地方レベルのインフラ開発にあてられ、特に低所得者向住宅建設にあてられる、と浙江省の金融部長のQian Juyan が述べている。新規プロジェクトは資金調達が厳しく管理される。この措置は地方政府の資金調達の方法が変わったことを示唆する。 (浙江省は地下銀行のメッカである)他の3地域でもこの新規措置が試される。
The question is, who will invest, and at what rates? As FT Tilt’s Denise Law noted on Friday, appetite for debt backed by the central government has already been waning, with a couple of bond issues not getting enough coverage. Wei Yao at SocGen says it’s a small but significant shift: The burden will be gradually shifted away ? but not reduced ? from banks to the general financial market. We foresee insurers and pension funds will eventually own a significant share of local government debt. However, for that experiment to work, she notes, the local governments will need to be a lot more forthcoming about their financial status than they have been so far. 問題は誰がこの債権を買うかであるがDenise Lawに依れば中央政府の保証のある債券への購買意欲は減少していて、幾つかの債券オーク ションは充分な買い手がいなかった。ソシエテ・ジェネラルのWei Yaoは、これは小さなニュースだが大いに意味のあるシフトであるとい う。債務の負荷が徐々に銀行から一般的金融にシフトしているが、無くなるわけではない。保険会社や年金資金がいずれ地方政府の負債 の大きな担い手になろうという。いずれにせよ新たな試みが機能するためには地方政府は其の金融の状況について従来以上に積極的にな る必要があるという。
As it is, while it is de rigeur for bailed-out banks to remain publicly traded these days, in the case of Dexia ? where the only thing the governments can do to rescue the bank is to pull it apart ? it’s especially gruesome. (前略)そういうことで、救済を受けた銀行が、ギリギリで株式市場に上場を続けているが、デクシアについて政府のできることは 銀行をバッドとグッドに分離することであるガ、厄介な仕事になる。
And as ever, we’d argue that it’s important to remember that a liquidity guarantee is much more onerous than recapitalisation. Belgium’s ?4bn acquisition of Dexia’s stake in Dexia Belgium looks terrible but at least governments usually only have to capitalise a bank’s bad assets. In protecting liquidity they are funding both the good and the bad assets, in this case it would appear for a very long time to come. That’s why it’s hard to tell whether Dexia remains dead or alive. For now, we get classic comments like this: RTRS-DEXIA SA CEO SAYS DEXIA’S PROBLEM IS NOT CAPITAL BUT LIQUIDITY 我々はいつものように、流動性の保証は資本注入よりも更に面倒な問題である。ベルギー政府の40億ユーロの持分取得は酷いものにみえ るが、政府は通常、銀行のバッド資産に資本注入する必要がある。流動性保証によって政府は銀行のグッド資産とバッド資産の両方にフ ァンディングしている。この事例では長期に渡る措置となろう。この理由によってデクシアが生きているのか死んでいるのかを言うの は難しい。ロイター速報のコメント:デクシア社長が問題は資本で無く流動性という; ttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/10/10/697161/undexia-2/
Erste Group announced some colourful extraordinary charges on Monday morning. Austria’s biggest lender, and the second biggest bank in Eastern Europe, still hasn’t paid back the ?1.2bn injection of state funds it received back in 2009, and its statement indicates it won’t do so by the end of 2011. エアステ銀行グループが月曜朝に特別損失を計上。この銀行グループはオーストリーで最大の融資元で、東欧で第二位の規模を持つ。 同行は2009年に政府の注入した12億ユーロを未返済で2011年末にもその見込がない。
After the adjustments contained in the announcement, Erste Group is set to report a net loss of ?920-970m over the first three quarters of the year. However, the bank doesn’t foresee a change in its core tier one ratio of 9.2 per cent (or 8.7 per cent if you lend any credence to the EBA’s stress tests ? not that we recommend you do). 同行は今年の1Qから3Qの間の損失920m-970mユーロを計上。しかし同行はコアタイア1資本への影響は見込んでいない。 Part of the extraordinary charge relates to write-downs on goodwill and additional risk provisions on operations in Romania and Hungary. The latter government’s new policy of forcing banks to convert some borrowers’ FX loans below the market rate hasn’t gone down very well in particular: 特別損失計上の理由の一つはルーマニアとハンガリーでの追加的リスクの計上であり、後者についてハンガリー議会が特別の決定 をしている。
Erste Group has cut its sovereign exposure to Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy from EUR 1.9 billion at year-end 2010 to EUR 0.6 billion at 30 September 2011. 95% of this exposure is marked to market as at 30 September 2011. At the same time sovereign exposure to Greece and Portugal declined to about EUR 10 million. さらに同行はギリシャ、ポルトガル、スペイン、イタリア、アイルランドなどにソブリン・エクスポージャーを2010年末の19億ユーロ から20121年9月末の6億ユーロに削減した。このイクスポージャーの95%は2011年9月30日時点で時価会計評価されている。同時に ギリシャとポルトガルへのソブリン・イクスポージャーは1000万ユーロに減少 In addition, Erste Group changes the presentation of its CDS portfolio (protection sold) from amortised cost to market values, leading to a one-off cumulative charge against shareholders’ equity of EUR 280 million for the years prior to 2011. The impact on the 1-9 2011 income statement (profit and loss account) amounts to about EUR 180 million (post-tax). これと同時に同行は販売したCDSの評価を時価会計評価に変更、一時損失280mユーロを2011年に計上、Q1-Q3への影響は180mユーロ (後略) エアステ・グループ株価チャート ttp://www.bloomberg.co.jp/apps/quote?T=jp09/quote.wm&ticker=EBS:AV
Reuters Beijing will buy additional shares in the country’s biggest banks, an expression of state support for the beleaguered stock market that paid instant dividends with a rally in the final minutes of trading on Monday. ロイター報道に依れば中国政府は月曜日の引け際に大手銀行の株式を購入すると発表、低迷する株式市場のテコ入れと銀行への支援を 示唆した。市場はラリーとなった。
The move by Central Huijin, the domestic arm of China’s sovereign wealth fund, is intended to help stabilise the pillars of the country’s financial system, the official Xinhua news agency said. Coming on the same day as the Chinese stock market closed at a 30-month low, the announcement was the strongest indication yet that the government has seen enough and is trying to engineer a restoration of confidence in share prices and, more generally, the economy. 新華社に依れば、これは中国の国富ファンドが国内金融システムの安定化のために行う措置である。この日に中国株式市場は30ヶ月来 の安値であった。この政府の措置は株式市場の信頼性回復に政府が充分の意志のあることを示す。
Although Chinese growth has so far held up well, the risks of a debt crisis in Europe and a double-dip recession in the US have cast a shadow over the country. With inflation running near three-year highs and debt levels swollen by heavy spending, economists doubt Beijing would be able to launch another stimulus as it did when the global financial crisis struck in 2008. Sensing vulnerability, investors have turned against China, driving down commodity prices, betting on the chances of a government default and selling shares in the banks that are the lifeblood of the economy. 中国の経済成長は高いものであるが欧州の負債危機やアメリカのダブルディップ・リセッションへの危惧が国内にも影を落としている。 中国国内のインフレ率は3年来の高さでこれまでの経済刺激政策による負債の増加からエコノミストは中国政府が新たな経済刺激政策を 投入できるかを疑っている。こうした危うさを察知して投資家は中国に悲観的となり、コモディティ価格の低下、銀行の株価低落を招い ている。 (略)
The stock markets in mainland China were already closed, but Chinese bank shares in Hong Kong turned sharply positive on the news. ICBC, which had been down 3 per cent, rallied at the finish line to close up 1 per cent. Analysts said the sudden turn-around may have partly reflected short covering. 中国の市場は既に引けているが香港市場の中国銀行株はシャープに値上がりした。ICBCは3%値下がりしていたが引け際のラリーで+1% となった。アナリストは空売りの買戻しが大きな値動きの要因と見ている。
Global investors have soured on Chinese bank shares over the past year, worried that their bad debt levels will soar because of their lending spree since 2008. Shorting Chinese bank shares in Hong Kong has also been a popular play for investors who believe that the world’s fastest-growing major economy is due for a slowdown. “They [Huijin] are trying to signal to the market that they feel confident,” said Sanjay Jain, a Chinese banking analyst with Credit Suisse in Hong Kong. “And of course valuations are depressed, so it’s not a bad idea to buy at these levels for a long-term strategic investor.” 香港市場での中国銀行株のショートは中国経済のスローダウンに賭ける投資家にとって好まれており、クレディ・スイス香港支店の Sanjay Jainに依れば「中国の国富ファンドは市場に対して彼らが(大手銀行を)信頼している事を示した」という。「価格低下でバリ エーションが向上しているから、この時点で(国富ファンドが)長期投資のために銀行株を買うことは悪いアイデアではない」
In a further rebuff to traders who have been betting that the renminbi will weaken as the Chinese economy slows, Beijing also pushed through the currency’s biggest one-day appreciation in years on Monday, letting it rise 0.6 per cent against the dollar. The motivation for that also appeared to be diplomatic, with the US Senate set to vote on Tuesday on legislation that would punish China for keeping its currency undervalued.
Everything is soaring higher today, on a combination of recession-avoidance in the US and promises of bank recapitalization in Europe. As we wrote earlier about crude oil, the durability of this rally is still in serious doubt. The Dow is up 231 points at last check to 11333, with all 30 components higher. The S&P is up 2.3% to 1182. The Nasdaq is up 2.2% to 2533. 今日はすべてが爆上げしていて、アメリカのリセッション回避の期待と欧州の銀行の資本強化のニュースが要因。ダウは+231、S&Pは +2.3%、NASDAQは+2.2%;
At the current pace, the Dow and S&P could break through the dreaded “rounding top” formation Art Cashin noticed a couple of weeks ago. That could be a decent technical sign. Crude oil, as we mentioned, is up 3%, while gold is up 1.7% to $1663 an ounce and silver is up 3% ? confirming that gold and silver are not safe havens right now but rather risk-on vehicles. このパターンだと、ダウとS&Pは、いわゆるラウンディング・トップの悪い傾向から抜けられる鴨。石油は+3%、金は+1.7%、銀は+3%
Speaking of risk-on vehicles, the euro is absolutely screaming higher, up 1.9% against the dollar to $1.36, the highest since ? well, since the end of September, so it’s still got a ways to go to climb out of its hole. It may not get there, warns David Song, currency analyst at DailyFX: ユーロが+1.9%で9月末以降の高値だが、そこから先にあげられるかについては、デイリーFXのDavid Songは疑問だという。
The renewed pledged to tackle the European debt crisis propped up market sentiment on Monday, but the relief rally in the EUR/USD may be short-lived as the fundamental outlook for the euro-area turns increasingly bleak. As German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, respond to the credit rating downgrade by Fitch; the increased effort to restore investor confidence could spur a larger correction in the exchange rate, but the single-currency may struggle to hold its ground as market participants see additional monetary support on the horizon. ユーロのファンダメンタルズは依然弱くユーロの対ドル上昇は短期的鴨。独仏首脳の格付会社の格下げへの反応がユーロをあげている けど、ユーロの先行きのマネタリ−政策の変更の予想とかあってユーロが持ちこたえるかは疑問。
As the European Central Bank maintains a cautious outlook for the region, we may see the Governing Council carry its easing cycle into the following year, and the ECB may have little choice but to scale back the benchmark interest rate from 1.50% as the region faces a growing risk of a double-dip recession.” ECBは利下げを翌年に予想しているけれどダブルディップ・リセッションのリスクが増えるなら1.5%に戻すしか無いかも知れない
Ed Yardeni this morning points out that a bank recapitalization might itself be short-lived: On Sunday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy met in their eighth bilateral summit in 20 months. They pledged to recapitalize the banks, though once again the details have yet to be worked out. They agreed that the specific plan would be ready for the Group of 20 summit on November 3-4. Ed Yardeni は今朝、銀行の資本強化というのは長続きしない可能性があるという。独仏首脳の一致にも関わらず詳細は未定で、G20の ある11月3−4日までに決めるという
European banks need as much as ?200 billion of capital, according to an IMF estimate. The EFSF will have ?440 billion once all 17 EU parliaments authorize. About half of that would have been needed to avert a Greek default. However, it is now likely to be needed to recapitalize the banks so they can absorb a 50%-60% haircut to Greek debt. Obviously, when that happens, the capital provided to the banks will be wiped out. In other words, recapitalization won’t recapitalize European banks for long in this scenario! The outlook for the euro, unfortunately, is the key that unlocks the outlook for every other risky asset class. 欧州の銀行は2000億ユーロまでの資本追加が必要とIMFは予想、EFSFは4400億ユーロを持っているがその半分くらいはギリシャ救済に 必要、しかるにギリシャのヘアカットが50−60%であれば銀行の資本追加文が消えてなくなる。別の言葉で言うなら資本強化は銀行の 資本を長期に強化するものではない。ユーロの先行き見通しは困ったことに他のすべてのリスク資産のキイになっている
Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors points out that the early European reaction was more muted ? and probably more correct: CDS indices waited for US stocks to open before moving to their tightest levels on the day. So in a completely bizarro world, the markets that are most directly affected by this weekends statements and actions have a muted reaction, until the US stock market, with market least directly affected, opens with a bang. Maybe it makes sense, but the correlations seem all wrong. More likely, US stocks are just the happiest place out there and some investors who short the SPX into the close on Friday with all the negative headlines are being forced out, and have decided to sell some CDS indices in addition to covering shorts in stocks. 金曜日の引けにSPXをショートしていた向きが其の買い戻しに動き市場が高騰している
I am going to bet that the initial reaction in Europe was the right one. Mildly positive but at risk of giving up the gains, and that the US reaction that all is good, is once again wrong. ヨーロッパの週末の事情は良いものと同意できるが、全てが良くなったとする見方は誤っている
これは今日のWSJに寄稿された、バークレイズ銀行・香港支店の主任エコノミストの書いているもので、一言で言えば「最近一部で言わ れるような中国経済のハードランディングはありえない」というもの。最近報道されて議論を呼んでいる不動産価格の低下、地方政府の 債務問題の悪化、中小企業の経営難といったものは中央政府が管理できる範囲の内側にあるので中国の金融経済システムのメルトダウン につながることはない、とする。興味ある主張だけれど、ちょっと議論が大雑把な気もする ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203633104576620422481929668.html OPINION ASIAOCTOBER 10, 2011, 4:58 P.M. ET Reading the China Risk By YIPING HUANG Small-business defaults and falling house prices are manageable problems. A global recession won't be. 中国のリスクを読む:中小企業の破綻や住宅価格の低落は(中国政府の)管理可能なものである。グローバル・リセッション はそうではないが By YIPING HUANG
The People's Bank of China has been tightening monetary policy for more than a year and economic activity has been moderating. It is entirely normal for a number of SMEs to fail as costs of both labor and capital rise. Informal lending is risky by definition. At an estimated 4 trillion yuan ($627 billion), however, it is only about 8% of the banking sector's total credit. While there are large number of media reports on problems of SMEs and informal lending, most cases occurred in Wenzhou city. Wenzhou is a very small part of the country, accounting for less than 1% of China's GDP. Local governments, with total borrowing of 10.7 trillion yuan or 27% of GDP largely via off-balance-sheet entities, are a potential problem for both the financial and fiscal system. Much of the borrowing was used for investment projects, especially construction of infrastructure, during the past three years. It will be difficult for local-government-linked entities to immediately pay back the loans when they gradually mature, starting from this year. But the local governments have both strong political wills and sufficient state assets to keep these borrowings from turning bad, at least before the leadership transition in early 2013.
Most of the current economic problems are, in one way or another, related to incomplete restructuring of the financial system. Despite major steps of reforms during the past decades, the Chinese financial system remains highly repressive. Most importantly, financial institutions still act more like policy agents in allocating credit. Key interest rates are tightly regulated by the state, and the private sector's access to finance remains highly restricted. Yet despite these problems?and an inevitable uptick in nonperforming loans following the 2008-09 credit-driven stimulus?the banks' balance sheets are quite healthy today. Their average nonperforming loan ratio is way below 2%, their average capital adequacy ratio is above 10%, while their reserve requirement ratio is at 21.5%. All these provide ample room for the banks to absorb bad assets without causing systemic financial risks.
The central government's public debts stand at about 18% of GDP. Adding local government borrowing and contingent liabilities in other areas, total liabilities are probably about 60% to 80% of GDP. The government still has a large pool of state-owned assets, which are worth about 15 times GDP. Therefore Beijing does have sufficient resources to prevent a systemic meltdown of the economy, at least in the short term.(ry
ティーパーティの支持する政策の傾向、共和党の平均的意見との差異 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://people-press.org/2011/10/07/strong-on-defense-and-israel-tough-on-china/?src=prc-headline Strong on Defense and Israel, Tough on China Tea Party and Foreign Policy Released: October 7, 2011 PEW世論調査:ティーパーティの政策は強い軍備の維持、イスラエル支持、貿易問題で中国にタフであること 10月7日
<Middle East: Strong Support for Israel, Criticism of Obama> 中東政策でティーパーティはイスラエル支持、オバマ中東政策に批判的 イスラエルとパレスチナのどちらを支持するかを問うと、ティーパーティはイスラエル=79%、パレスチナ=9%、これは共和党 平均である63%:8%に比べてイスラエルよりの姿勢。民主党については41%:15%; ttp://people-press.org/files/2011/10/10-7-11-2.png
これを受けヒューン・エネルギー相は、「英国が世界で最良の原発安全体制を持つことが示された」と強調、現在の原発政策を推進 していく考えを改めて示した。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/11/us-britain-nuclear-report-idUSTRE79A20220111011 UK nuclear inspector gives green light to atomic energy By Karolin Schaps LONDON | Tue Oct 11, 2011 9:10am EDT 英国の原子力安全監督局は、原発計画にGOサインを出す ロイター、11日