JPMorgan believes a break-up of the eurozone is “very unlikely”. But it wants you to be prepared. JPモーガンはユーロ圏の分裂は「大変、起こり難い」としているが、まさかの場合のシナリオを記している
The bank launched its “Alternate States” series of research notes on Thursday, which attempt to describe the probable course of improbable events. 木曜日にJPモーガンのリサーチノートが“Alternate States”の記事を掲載
There are two ways a breakup could happen, writes JPMorgan. First, a Germany-led northern exodus which leaves the periphery with a rump currency led by France. Second, a periphery-led southern exodus which leaves the north with a rump currency led by Germany. ユーロ圏の分裂には二つのシナリオが在り得て、(1)ドイツを中心にする北部欧州諸国の離脱により、現在のEUが フランスとユーロ周辺国の集団になる(フランスが通貨の重心)、(2)南部欧州のユーロ周辺国がEUを離脱し、ドイ ツを中心とする北部欧州が現在のEUに置き換わる(ドイツが通貨の重心)(後略)
Bank of America Corp. officials have discussed eliminating roughly 40,000 positions during the first wave of a restructuring that Chief Executive Brian Moynihan is expected to discuss Monday, said people familiar with the plans.
DUESSELDORF, Germany?Samsung Electronics Co. can't sell its Galaxy Tab 10.1 tablet computer in Germany, the Duesseldorf regional court ruled Friday in a decision that may hurt the South Korean company's sales in Europe's largest economy. Samsung said it will appeal the ruling, which confirms an indicative opinion given by the court on Aug. 25. However the most important of the 19 cases between Samsung and Apple will start in the U.S. District Court in San Jose, Calif., next month. Preliminary rulings there could affect Samsung's ability to sell products in the U.S., its largest market.
ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903285704576560111046588524.html?mod=googlenews_wsj The district court ruled Thursday that Saab failed to prove it could achieve a successful reorganization, and that it was unclear whether Chinese authorities would approve the ?245 million ($340.1 million) equity contribution of Chinese partners Zhejiang Youngman Lotus Automobile Co. and Pang Da Automobile Trade Co., or whether the planned funding will be enough to solve Saab's financial problems. サーブのリストラ計画を裁判所が承認しなかったことにより、中国の自動車会社Zhejiang Youngman Lotus Automobile Co. および Pang Da Automobile Trade Co.がサーブの再建計画で提案している240Mユーロ($340M)の株式出資を中国政府が 承認するかが不透明となった。計画されていた出資が再建に充分なものかも不明瞭である。
She said that in Saab Automobile's case, it was clear that the company didn't have enough money to make it through a reorganization process, during which the company isn't allowed to raise new credit. "The purpose of a reorganization is not to wait around for an investor," she said. Ms. Karlsson-Tuula said it would require a change in circumstances, such as a new investor, in order for Saab Automobile to get its appeal approved. Swedish Automobile said it and Saab still are in talks with several parties about obtaining additional short-term funding. 業界アナリストのMs. Karlsson-Tuulaはこの裁判所の判断についてサーブ側が再建に充分なキャッシュを確保できなかった ことが明確と述べた。彼女に依れば、再建計画の成功のためには、新規の投資家を求めるなど環境の改善が必要である。 サーブは依然として幾つかのパートナーと追加の短期資金投入について協議中である。(WSJ)
FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) -- European Central Bank Governing Council member Juergen Stark is set to step down amid disagreements over the central bank's bond-buying program, Reuters reported Friday, citing unidentified sources. The report was credited with putting added pressure on the euro EURUSD -0.93% , which traded at $1.3769 versus the dollar, a decline of 0.9%. An ECB spokesman said the bank had no comment. ECBの経営委員会メンバーのJuergen Starkが債権購入をめぐる意見不一致で辞任の予定とロイターが報道。ソースは不明。 このニュースでユーロの対ドル相場が0.93%低下。ECBの広報官はノーコメントと言っている
In 2008 Barack Obama was propelled into office largely by a financial crisis. In 2012, he might find that what goes around in politics comes around, as his bid for reelection risks being thwarted by yet another financial crisis. The main difference between then and now will be that this crisis did not originate in the U.S., but in Europe. And it will be one over which President Obama has no control.
このチャートについて、WSJのマーケットビートの解説 The ECRI’s index actually ticked up a notch last week, but the four-week rolling average fell to -6.2%, the worst rate of decline since last October. This chart is not looking pretty. The index is not yet signaling a recession ? it has fallen much further than this in past recessions, and even fell more than during last year’s double-dip scare, when growth actually held up OK.
>>87 これは飴のシンクタンクではなく中国系のアナリストの書いているものなのだけれど、同様の論点で中国は 日中関係強化の絶好のタイミングを自らの行動で台無しにしている、と論じる。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.chinapost.com.tw/commentary/the-china-post/frank-ching/2011/09/06/315743/China-fires.htm Updated Tuesday, September 6, 2011 11:11 am By Frank Ching, Special to The China Post China fires another shot into its foot with words to Japan 中国は自らの(敵対的な)行動や言辞で日本に対応して、自らに不利な状況を招いているのだが By Frank Ching チャイナ・ポスト
(大胆に前略) However, in the last two years, China had shot itself in the foot through its policies towards the Korean Peninsula and Japan. This has resulted in Japan's new ruling party putting as much emphasis on the alliance as the Liberal Democrats ever did. However, economic forces are such that Japan, and particularly the business community there, is eager to have closer relations with China. And yet, it seems, China will not take yes for an answer. No sooner had Yoshihiko Noda been chosen as the new prime minister than China issued a demand that he “needs to respect China's core interests.” If China will only allow the situation to develop on its own, the countries of Asia may well come to accept its status as the leading power in the region. But arrogance and threats are unlikely to win China any friends ? certainly not in Japan.
WSJの準社説的なコラム「レビュー&アウトルック」が破産した太陽光パネルメーカーのソリンドラの「スキャンダル」 を論じている。このメーカーに政府の債務保証や低利融資を行ったことが、政治的コネクションと関係があるのでは との疑いがある。ソリランドの大口出資者であるGeorge Kaiserがオバマの大統領選挙の献金者で、オバマ就任後には ホワイトハウスを訪問し、ソリンドラ関係者は20回もホワイトハウスを尋ねている。オバマ大統領のソリランドでの演説 や熱烈支援が政治的コネクションや政府の支援に関連しているのではないかと(ry ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904836104576558763644374614.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_AboveLEFTTop REVIEW & OUTLOOKSEPTEMBER 9, 2011 The Solyndra Scandal:The FBI raids a beneficiary of federal loan guarantees. ソリランド・スキャンダル:FBIの家宅捜索が連邦政府の融資を受けた会社に
The political scandal over the failure of Solyndra, the politically connected solar-panel maker, just got a lot more interesting. The FBI raided the company's Fremont, California offices yesterday and executed a search warrant. 昨日、FBIがカリフォルニア州フェアモントのソリンドラ社を家宅捜索したことで、この政治的コネクションを有する太陽光 パネルメーカーの破産に関連したスキャンダル事件がとても興味深いものになってきた
Congress has been investigating the company, which received a $535 million government loan guarantee in March 2009 and announced August 31 that it is filing for bankruptcy. Yesterday's FBI raid is the first hint of a larger government probe, which is being conducted in cooperation with the Department of Energy's Inspector General. The FBI declined to comment. A Solyndra spokesman said it was surprised by the raid and is cooperating.
Meanwhile, the Daily Caller reported yesterday that "Solyndra officials and investors made no fewer than 20 trips" to the White House between March 2009 and April 2011 and that Mr. Kaiser also made a few visits. Mr. Kaiser and the White House deny any impropriety.(ry
Talks with the EU and the IMF are due to resume next week. But continued contraction only makes the goals set out last year all the more remote. On current trends, Greece could well default even before the euro zone's other national parliaments can approve the legislation needed for that second bailout.
A group of about 30 protesters broke into the Israeli Embassy in Cairo Friday and dumped hundreds of documents out of the windows after a day of demonstrations outside the building in which crowds swinging sledge hammers and using their bare hands tore apart the embassy's security wall.
Protesters clashed with police and set fire to two police truck outside the embassy. Crowds also tried to attack a nearby police station but were turned back by security forces firing tear gas and warning shots. State radio reported that one person died of a heart attack and that 450 people were injured
Meanwhile, U.S. President Barak Obama spoke with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the situation at the Israeli Embassy in Cairo. The President's office said in a statement that Obama expressed great concern about the situation at the Embassy, and the security of the Israelis serving there.
The statement said Obama "reviewed the steps that the United States is taking at all levels to help resolve the situation without further violence, and to call on the Government of Egypt to honor its international obligations to safeguard the security of the Israeli Embassy."
襲撃事件の元になった金曜日の抗議行動は宗教的グループ(=イスラミスト)の行ったものではないという Friday's demonstrations were organized mostly by secular groups which had been pushing for reforms, a new constitution and an end to the trial of civilians before military courts. (secular=非宗教的)
ロイターによれば、エジプトでの青年層の抗議行動が過激化しているが、ムスリムブラザーフッドはそれらの 抗議行動とは距離を置いているという Islamists, including the political party set up by the Muslim Brotherhood -- Egypt's best organized political force after the dissolution of Mubarak's National democratic Party -- have distanced themselves from the planned protests. ttp://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCATRE7885PH20110910?pageNumber=3&virtualBrandChannel=0
(1)2日後にエジプト訪問を予定しているトルコのエルドガン首相のアンチ・イスラエルの姿勢と関連がある (政治的・キャンペーン的な意味で) (2)エジプト警察がムスリムブラザーフッドや他の過激派に融和的姿勢を取ってきたことがバックファイアーしている (3)ムスリムブラザーフッドはアンチイスラエルの行動に出るよう追い詰められている (4)アルカイダ系のイスラム過激派がエジプトに入りこんで反イスラエル行動など事件を起こしている (5)イスラエル大使館襲撃はエジプトとイスラエルの関係を危機に置くものであるばかりか、アメリカとの関係を傷つける (6)首都の他国大使館を過激派が襲撃することを防げないならエジプト警備当局の威信が地に落ち、カイロが過激派の暴力 の支配する都市になりかねない The attack came two days before a scheduled visit by the Turkish prime minister Tayyip Erdogan to Cairo amid an escalating Turkish diplomatic offensive against Israel which the US is seeking to contain. Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood whipped up the Israeli embassy attack to show the military rulers in Cairo who calls the shots and pressure them into breaking off three decades of peace ties with the Jewish state. The Turkish leader set the scene for the rampage in Cairo by his spiraling anti-Israel hate campaign which is winning him popularity on the Arab Muslim street. Not only have Egyptian-Israeli ties entered a crisis phase, so have US relations with the Arab world. The Egyptian rulers' policy of appeasement for the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamic extremists has backfired against them too. The spreading extremist violence climaxing in the attack on the Israeli embassy augurs the further breakdown of their authority ttp://www.debka.com/article/21288/
The discovery of oil off the coast of French Guiana has been hailed as “potentially transformational” by Tullow Oil, sending shares in the exploration company up almost 15 per cent. Tullow said the discovery vindicated its long-standing theory that the geological conditions that produced oilfields along the west African coast, notably its Jubilee field off the coast of Ghana, were replicated on the other side of the Atlantic. フランス領ギアナの沖合でTullow Oil会社などの行っていた石油探索が成功し同社の株価が15%上昇した。同社に依れば 今回の油田発見の成功は油田開発の見方を修正する所がある。西アフリカ沿岸は地学的に石油層を持つ条件が存在するとみ なされてきた。ガーナ沿岸のJubilee field油田はその例に当たる。大西洋の反対側にあるフランス領ギアナはこれと同様の 地学的条件があるとされてきた。
The move suggests that more oil is waiting to be found further along the South American coastline in the waters of a string of neighbouring countries, including Suriname and Guyana. The French Guiana exploration well, drilled in partnership with Royal Dutch Shell, the Anglo-Dutch oil group, Total of France, and Northpet, an independent company owned by Northern Petroleum and Wessex Exploration, found oil located 5,711 metres below sea level. 今回の発見で、南アメリカのコーストラインに沿った隣国での石油開発の可能性が生まれるとみなされている。スリナム (旧オランダ領ギアナ)やギアナがそれにあたる。フランス領ギアナの石油開発はRoyal Dutch Shell, Anglo-Dutch oil group, Total(フランス)、Northpet(独立系)などの会社のパートナーシップによる。 今回発見された油田は海面下5711メートル、埋蔵量の正確な推定は今後の調査によるが一説には700Mバレルという。油田 発見場所は首都のCayenneから100マイルの沖合(後略)
破産したカリフォルニア州の太陽光パネルメーカー、ソリンドラにオバマ政権が入れ込んでいたことへの批判が 幾つかの評論になって現れてきている。WSJのレビュー&アウトルックが其の典型であるけれど、これはリー ズン・マガジンに掲載されたもので、なかなか鋭い。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://reason.com/archives/2011/09/09/obamas-crony-capitalism Obama's Crony Capitalism What the Solyndra debacle reveals about Obama's economic strategy A. Barton Hinkle | September 9, 2011 オバマの縁故重視の資本主義:ソリンドラの破綻で明らかになったオバマの経済戦略 by A. Barton Hinkle
The president's address on jobs last night included some soaring phrases, but it left out one crucial word that epitomizes his approach to economics: Solyndra. 昨夜のオバマ大統領の雇用創出計画の演説は幾つかの遠大なフレーズを含むものだったが、オバマ大統領の経済へのアプロ ーチを示す言葉を欠いていた。それはソリンドラである。 (中略) This is known as the political allocation of economic resources, and it entails all kinds of problems. The first and most basic: It's wrong. Government should not be picking winners and losers in the marketplace. これは経済的リソーセスの政治的配分で、大いに問題がある。まず第一に、基本的にそれは間違っている。政府はビジネスの 市場で勝者や敗者を勝手に選ぶべきではない。
Problem No. 2: corruption. When government puts its massive thumb on the market scale, corporations have a huge incentive to try to win government's favor. Hence: campaign contributions and lobbyists galore. Progressives who want to keep money out of politics should help libertarians build a high wall between economy and state. 第二の問題は腐敗である。政府が大規模な支援を行うときには企業は政府に好かれたいと思うようになる。それは選挙キャン ペーンへの献金とかロビーストの活躍をもたらす。進歩派(リベラル)が政治とカネの問題を切り離しておきたいと望むなら 経済と国(の権限)の間に防火壁を作るべきとするリバータリアンを支援すべきだ。
>>277 (続き) Problem No. 3: the distortion of market incentives. Although federal policy was far from the only reason for the recent housing bubble and crash, it played a significant role. And even when market intervention does not produce a crash, it can still produce a creature like the Chevy Volt?an electric vehicle for which there is zero demand despite a whopping $7,500 federal tax credit for purchase?or Cash for Clunkers. That idea, now universally derided, seemed bright at the time, at least to some. In retrospect, it seems as smart as paying people to burn down their houses to stimulate demand for new ones. 第三の問題は市場インセンティブを歪ませることである。連邦政府の住宅政策は近年の住宅バブルと其のクラッシュの唯一の 原因と言うには遠いのだが、それは大きな役割を果たしている。市場への介入がクラッシュを生み出さないとしても、そうい う政府の介入というのはGMのボルトのような製品を生み出す。この電気自動車には連邦政府の税金控除$7500が付いている にもかかわらず市場の需要がゼロだ。今では嘲笑されているこのアイデアは、一時期には、少なくとも一部の人には優れたも のとみなされていた。振り返ってみれば、それは新規住宅の需要喚起のために自分の家を焼却する人に補助金を与えるのと同 じくらい賢明なものだ。
Such market distortion shifts resources from more productive to less productive purposes, which inevitably produces less prosperity?fewer jobs at lower pay. Want evidence? See last month's New York Times story "Number of Green Jobs Fails to Live Up to Promises," which concluded: "Federal and state efforts to stimulate creation of green jobs have largely failed, government records show." For the Times to concede that government intervention in pursuit of progressive political goals has not worked is like National Review criticizing a Republican. The proof has to be overwhelming. こういう市場に歪を与える政府の政策というのはリソーセスを効率的な目的分野から非効率の分野にシフトさせる。そのため 雇用が減少し給与が下がる。そういう証拠をお望み? 先月のNYTの記事「グリーン・ジョブの創出は、約束された計画に 及んでいない」を見よ。この記事の結論は「連邦政府と州政府のグリーン・ジョブ創出の努力は大きな失敗であったことが政 府の統計によって明らか」進歩派の政治的目標を達成するための政府の市場への介入は失敗したとNYTも敗北を認めている。 これは(保守派の)ナショナルレビュー(雑誌)が共和党の政策を批判するような(異例の)事態で、証拠として充分であろ う。
>>278 (続き) The fourth problem inherent in the political allocation of economic resources is the biggest: The underlying assumption that it is a good thing because politicians and bureaucrats have more knowledge, wisdom and virtue than everyone else. But they do not. First, there is simply no way a government of even leviathan proportions can know more about, say, Joe's Auto Parts than Joe himself does. To think it can know more about the entire auto industry than the industry itself is absurd. Repeat this formula for all other industries. 第四の問題として、経済的リソーセスの政治的アロケーションは、その最大の問題点を持っていて、それは政治家や官僚が 他のすべての人より、よりよい知識、賢明さ、美徳を有するという考え方の前提である。実際には彼らはそういうふうでは なくてleviathan(聖書にある巨大怪獣)のような政府であろうとも自動車部品店を経営する中小企業の経営者よりより詳 しい知識があるとは限らない。自動車産業よりも政府が、業界全体について知見があるというのは不条理である。それは自動 車産業に限らず、他のすべての産業についても同じである。
Government and politicians also like to think they know what is best for America. Energy Secretary Steven Chu epitomized this attitude when he argued for new lightbulb standards by saying, "We are taking away a choice that continues to let people waste their own money." (The morons.) But since America is simply the sum of all the citizens who live in it, then to say the government knows what is best for the country is to say the government knows more about what is best for Abigail Anderson of 423 Morris Lane, Wilmington, Del., than Ms. Anderson does herself?and likewise for each of America's other 311 million citizens. Absurd. 政府や政治家はアメリカにとって何が一番良いかを熟知すると考える傾向がある。エネルギー庁長官のSteven Chuは其の典型 で、新しい電球の標準を決めるにあたって「我々は人々が彼らのお金を浪費し続けるという選択肢を取り去った」と述べた。 アメリカは単純に、そこに住む市民の総体であるから、政府が国にとって何が最善かを知るというのは、政府が国民各個人の 例えばAbigail Anderson of 423 Morris Lane, Wilmington, Del.,について何が最善かをMs. Andersonよりもよく知るという ことで、3億人のアメリカ人についてそれが言えるというのは不条理である。
It is not disinterested altruism that makes Obama think he can reshape the energy sector for the better, or conjure up jobs where employers do not want them. Such beliefs stem from unbridled hubris. And the result of hubris can be summed up in one word: Solyndra. オバマがエネルギー・セクターをより良い姿に変えることができると考えることは、あるいは雇用者の望まないような雇用を 創出できるとするのは、公正無私の利他主義からではない。そういう考え方は抑制を失った尊大さである。そういう尊大さを 一言でまとめれば、ソリンドラということになる。
The political crisis has become a reality well before the Palestinians declare their independent state, writes Haaretz editor-in-chief Aluf Benn, leaving Israel isolated in facing Iran, Turkey and Egypt. By Aluf Benn パレスチナ人の独立宣言の前に、政治的な危機がイスラエルを襲っている。イスラエルは、エジプト、トルコとイランの 核開発に直面し、孤立化している。 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *この評論は、起こっている事態を「アラブの民主化の波」の影響と捉えるもので、イスラエルが危惧したようにエジプト などに発生した独裁政権妥当の動きが反イスラエルに向かう事態が起こっている。トルコのエルドガン政権のイスラム化や エジプトのムバラク政権の崩壊はイスラエルが制御できるものでもなく、イランの核開発についても同じだがイスラエル の準備は充分ではなかったとする。そうした中東の動きの大きな背景はアメリカのスーパーパワーの衰え(あるいは疲労) であるが、それを予期すべきであったという。ネタニヤフ政権は中東の民主化暴動の広がりやイランの覇権を求める動き に神経を尖らせるサウジアラビアとの外交連携を考えるが前途は多難、とする。
ロシアのタス通信も東京発で速報。「日本の新しい経産相が任命後わずかで辞表提出に追い込まれた」とし、原発事故に よる放射性物質に汚染された地域に関しての不適切な発言が原因となったと説明した。〔共同〕 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WSJ記事の民主党批判の部分は ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903285704576562370929380678.html Mr. Hachiro's resignation over the gaffe will further strengthen the image of the DPJ as a party of political inexperience and incompetence, just days after Prime Minister Noda, the party's third prime minister in two years, was installed as an intended safe pair of hands to steady the DPJ's fortunes.
8月以降に起こっているマーケットの混乱をどう見るのか、についてHoward Marks、ゼロヘッジのサイト ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/howard-marks-explains-whats-behind-downturn Howard Marks Explains "What's Behind The Downturn" Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/08/2011 00:53 -0400 Howard Marks
Oaktree's Howard Marks once again cuts through what he perceives is the market's irrationality to explain what, to him, was the cause of the historic market collapse in early August: "Markets usually do a pretty good job of coping with problems one at a time. When one arises, analysts analyze and investors reach conclusions and calmly adjust their portfolios. But when there’s a confluence of negative events, the markets can become overwhelmed and lose their cool. Things that might be tolerable individually combine into an unfathomable mess whose extent and ramifications seem beyond analysis. Market crises are chaotic, not orderly, and the multiplicity and simultaneity of contributing causes play a big part in making them so. It’s my sense that it was the simultaneous nature of these occurrences ? in addition to, or perhaps rather than, their force individually ? that rendered the markets so incapable of maintaining their equanimity.Certainly that was the case in early August. For the first time in history, the Dow Industrials either rose or fell by at least 400 points four days in a row... Importantly, we saw the onset of one of those negative feedback loops where intelligence is imputed to market developments. We’re told the falling prices reflect problems lying ahead, and thus investors sell in response to the message being provided by . . . investors who’re selling. Again, I think it was the collective force of these things that convinced people the world was a scary place. What could be worse than the convergence of a number of major worries whose extent, interaction and solution seem beyond comprehension."
Moody's Corp. may downgrade the credit ratings of BNP Paribas (BNPQY, BNP.FR), Societe Generale SA (SCGLY, GLE.FR) and Credit Agricole SA (CRARY, ACA.FR) due to the banks' Greek holdings, Bloomberg News reported on its website Saturday, citing two anonymous sources "with knowledge of the matter." The banks were place on review in June due to "the potential for inconsistency between the impact of a possible Greek default or restructuring and current rating levels," Moody's reported. BNP and SocGen are rated Aa2, the third-highest investment grade. Credit Agricole is Aa1, the second highest. SocGen shares closed down more than 10% on Friday.
ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/sep/10/greece-verge-default-bailout-doubt But Erik Britton, of City consultancy Fathom, said it was good news if Germany was preparing its banks for the debt restructuring which a growing number of observers see as inevitable. "If they are drawing up a plan to protect the banks, it's not before time," he said. "[Greece] will default, it's just a matter of time ? but the bad scenario would be if we got a messy default."
"We owe nothing, we pay nothing, we sell nothing, we fear nothing," said a huge central banner as the first batch of protesters gathered under heavy police surveillance. 警官隊のヘビーな警備に中で、デモ隊は「我々は何も負うていない、何も支払わない、(国有資産を)何も売らない、何も 恐れない」と叫んでいる。
Organized by the "indignant" - mirroring Spain's months-old youth protest movement - the demonstration was expected to swell as Prime Minister George Papandreou prepared to address the nation on the country's economic crisis. 怒れる若者たちの抗議行動は、スペインで何ヶ月も続いている若者(学生や労組)の抗議行動と瓜二つである。
ギリシャのデフォルトに備える動きが(ドイツの報道) ---------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.thelocal.de/national/20110911-37511.html Two key instruments of the EFSF could come into play in the event of a Greek bankruptcy. The first are contingent credit lines, which would help countries like Spain or Italy if investors were to stop lending them money following a possible Greek insolvency. In addition, banks in numerous euro-zone countries could be reliant on aid from the EFSF if they had to write off billions in Greek government bonds. This is likely to happen regardless of whether or not Greece holds on to the euro. The governor of the state of Hesse, Volker Bouffier, like Schauble a member of Chancellor Merkel’s conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), says that a mechanism should be developed quickly to allow countries to leave the euro zone. “If the Greek government’s austerity and reform efforts are not successful, then we must ask ourselves if we don’t need new rules, that would allow for a euro-zone country to exit the currency union,” he told Der Spiegel.
With doubts growing about Greece's ability to implement important savings measures and reforms, there are concerns that insolvency may be inevitable. In Germany, officials in Wolfgang Schauble's Finance Ministry are exploring what Athens' financial collapse would mean for the euro zone.
●Bankruptcy Could Create Credit Crunch ギリシャの破綻でクレジットクランチの起こる可能性
ttp://www.economist.com/node/21528629 SEPTEMBER is a cruel month in international monetary history, when regimes that once seemed inviolate have shattered. In 1931 it was the month when Britain went off the gold standard. In September 1992 the same country was booted out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. This month will not see the end of the euro, but could go a long way to deciding its fate.
オバマ大統領の雇用創出計画の演説について、ウォルター・ラッセル・ミード これはまたあっさりと、端的な批評で ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2011/09/09/obama-jobs-speech-doa/ September 9, 2011 Obama Jobs Speech DOA by Walter Russell Mead
President Obama’s much ballyhooed jobs speech had no discernible effects on world markets or investor sentiment. Any potential impact was crushed by the bad news out of Greece and more generally in Europe, and rather than rejoicing at the President’s plans to turn the US economy around, European, US and Latin markets mostly fell two to four percent. ・・・ ・・・ For now, the markets are responding to the President’s proposals as just more mush from the wimp. The speech aimed too low ? and it missed.
コメンタリー・マガジン掲載の、先のオバマの雇用創出計画の議会でのスピーチの記事。面白い。国内メディアが絶対に 書かないような記事。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.commentarymagazine.com/2011/09/09/obama-wings-of-wax/ Barack Obama’s Wings of Wax Peter Wehner バラク・オバマの蝋で固めた羽 by Peter Wehner
Milbank added, “Presidential addresses to Congress are often dramatic moments. This one felt like a sideshow. Usually, the press gallery is standing-room-only; this time, only 26 of 90 seats were claimed by the deadline. Usually, some members arrive in the chamber hours early to score a center-aisle seat; 90 minutes before Thursday’s speech, only one Democrat was so situated.”
There is some poignancy in saying that for Barack Obama, a decent but imperious man, the wings of wax have finally melted away. これはバラク・オバマには痛切な言い方だが、礼儀正しいけれども、どこか横柄なところのある彼の、(イカロスのように) 蝋で固めた羽が、ついに溶けてしまった。
WSJに寄稿された中国経済の現状評論で、中国政府は人民元の切り上げとか国際化とか、2015年までにコンバーチブル にするとか言っているけれど、中国経済の実態から見て、そういうふうになるとは思えない、と論じる。何故ならば 最近の中国経済がますます安価な労働力による輸出増大に依存した形に傾いているので、それを止めることは失業の 増大につながり、過去の例から見てそういう失業増大を容認できないだろうという。 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904265504576564330476117402.html China's False Promises Despite declarations of letting the yuan rise, the Party has every incentive not to. By JOHN LEE SEPTEMBER 12, 2011 中国の守られない約束:人民元の切り上げの宣言にもかかわらず中国共産党はそうしないインセンティブが一杯有る By JOHN LEE WSJ寄稿評論 12日
More broadly, the problem is that Beijing still relies on the low-skill manufacturing model for growth. Here, the dysfunctional nature at the heart of the Chinese political economy explains the government's intransigence on the currency issue. For Beijing to even contemplate floating the yuan, it must first rebalance the economy away from a reliance on fixed investment and exports. ・・・ This distorted economy and polity means that heavy reliance is placed on the export manufacturing sector, which is responsible for 150-200 million jobs. Little wonder that when the dollar was allowed to appreciate about 17% from 2005-2008, an estimated 20-40 million jobs were lost, causing Beijing to put an abrupt halt to the yuan's rise.
State-ordered stress tests of more than 1,000 export manufacturing companies in 2010 indicated that these firms were surviving on 2% to 4% margins. In addition to the fact that Beijing is attempting to gently deflate a property bubble by reining in bank lending for construction?the other big source of employment?leaders will not tolerate any engineered downturn in the export manufacturing sector.
Promises of full currency liberalization are designed to deflect American and European angst about China's currency policies ahead of the Group of 20 meeting next month. But Beijing is in no position to deliver.
The two real options for a resolution of the eurozone crisis came into full conflict last week. The first is a common eurozone bond. The second is a monetisation of national debt through the European Central Bank. Angela Merkel rejects the former. Europe’s central bankers reject the latter. Jurgen Stark, a member of the European Central Bank’s executive board, rejects both, and last week resigned in protest. Along with other conservative economists, he is advocating a third way, adjustment through depression ? the simultaneous deleveraging of the private and public sector debt. メルケル=ユーロボンドは駄目 ECB=周辺国負債をECBの肩代わりでマネタイズするのは駄目 Jurgen Stark=両方とも駄目→辞任表明
If the ESM is a borderline case under German constitutional law, there can be no such doubt about a eurobond. The court’s verdict leaves me no alternative but to conclude they are indeed unconstitutional. 筆者の考えではドイツ憲法裁判所はユーロボンドを合憲と見ないはず
Do we really think the Bundestag, after having reluctantly accepted the need for a second Greek loan programme, will vote for a third? Or a second Portuguese or second Irish programme? Will they vote Yes once the EFSF starts buying bonds, or recapitalising banks? It takes a single No vote to trigger a default. When that happens, there will be no time left for diplomacy. The ruling leaves a post-Stark ECB as the sole backstop that could prevent a break-up of the eurozone.
166 名前:名無しさん@涙目です。(千葉県)[] 投稿日:2011/09/12(月) 17:55:33.96 ID:5+a0ZEYI0 For the instant during which NIF's laser is fired, it uses more power than the electricity consumption of the whole of America. But the returns are increasing.
Financial turmoil in Europe is no longer a problem of small, peripheral economies like Greece. What’s under way right now is a full-scale market run on the much larger economies of Spain and Italy. At this point countries in crisis account for about a third of the euro area’s G.D.P., so the common European currency itself is under existential threat. ・・・ Spain and Italy, however, have adopted the euro and no longer have their own currencies. As a result, the threat of a self-fulfilling crisis is very real ? and interest rates on Spanish and Italian debt are more than twice the rate on British debt. Which brings us back to the impeccable E.C.B.
What Mr. Trichet and his colleagues should be doing right now is buying up Spanish and Italian debt ? that is, doing what these countries would be doing for themselves if they still had their own currencies. Adding to the problem is the E.C.B.’s obsession with maintaining its “impeccable” record on price stability: at a time when Europe desperately needs a strong recovery, and modest inflation would actually be helpful, the bank has instead been tightening money, trying to head off inflation risks that exist only in its imagination.
And now it’s all coming to a head. We’re not talking about a crisis that will unfold over a year or two; this thing could come apart in a matter of days. And if it does, the whole world will suffer. So will the E.C.B. do what needs to be done ? lend freely and cut rates? Or will European leaders remain too focused on punishing debtors to save themselves? The whole world is watching.
カイロの暴徒によるイスラエル大使館襲撃事件について、レバノンのインテリ紙、ディリー・スターの社説。 エジプトの統治委員会(それを支えるエジプト軍を含んで)が政権運営の方向性を見失って漂流しているので はないか、とする ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Editorial/2011/Sep-12/148506-egypt-adrift.ashx#axzz1XjOG2Avy Egypt adrift September 12, 2011 01:39 AM By Daily Star Editorial 漂流するエジプト ディリー・スター社説(レバノン)
Was the attack a sign that the authorities have no idea about the mood of the Egyptian street, or how to deal with it?
The only clear thing is that after eight months or so of relative paralysis in Egypt, the country is in desperate need of direction.
In general, one sees a lack of firm will, or convincing vision, of the actual steps needed to bring Egypt from one phase of its history to the next. Political parties of all stripes are genuinely concerned about the course of events, and whether it will lead to a smooth, free and fair election in the fall.
The country faces massive political and economic challenges; the council must act wisely and convince the public ? not that it is the answer, but that it is capable of steering the ship to safety over the next few months. And they must do so without leaving so many questions in their wake.
評価方法発見 ttp://www.forbes.com/sites/scottdecarlo/2011/09/11/asias-fab-50/ We started with 1,073 that had at least $3 billion in revenue or market capitalization. We looked at the five-year track records for revenue, operating earnings and return on capital, and then the recent results and share-price movements, and finally the outlook. If it had too much debt, or the government owned at least half the shares, it was out. The result is an honor roll of the region’s best.
There is a risk of a radioactive leak after a blast at the southern French nuclear plant of Marcoule, media reports say. 南フランスマルクール原子力地区で爆発の後の放射能漏れの危険がある とのメディアが報じた。
One person was killed and three were injured in the explosion, following a fire in a storage site for radioactive waste, Le Figaro newspaper said. この放射性廃棄物格納庫での火災による爆発により、一名が死亡、 他三名が負傷
The plant is in the Gard region. そのプラントはガール県にある。
It is a major site involved with the decommissioning of nuclear facilities, and operates a pressurised water reactor used to produce tritium. ここは廃炉?となった施設を含む地域であり、トリチウムを生産する ために加圧水型原子炉を稼働している。
一方、イスラエル系のDEBKAは、襲撃事件は過激派イスラミストの、ジャマ・アル・イスラミアが中心になって起こ したと報道しているけれど、これと同じ報道がまだ他にないように思えるので一応留保 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.debka.com/article/21291/ Israeli embassy break-in led by Jam'a al-Islamiya of NY 1993 bombing DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 10, 2011, 7:41 PM (GMT+02:00) カイロのイスラエル大使館襲撃事件は1993年にNYCの爆破事件を起こした過激派イスラミストのJam'a al-Islamiyaのしわざ
In first new disclosures on the storming of Israel's Cairo embassy which started Friday night, Sept. 9, DEBKAfile's counter-terror sources reveal that the mob was led by the terrorist Jama'a al-Islamiya, the Egyptian founding branch of Al Qaeda, and two other radical Egyptian Islamist groups
Its mentor is the "blind sheikh" Omar Abdel Rahman, who is serving a life sentence for masterminding the first World Trade Center bombing. Jama'a adherents stormed the Israeli embassy Friday night along with activists of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian Students April 6 Movement. ジャマ・アル・イスラミアとムスリムブラザーフッドの活動家、それに学生運動の「4月6日運動」の活動家が大使館襲撃 事件を起こした。
SocGen has even referred to the basis swap market as a key means for managing “access to short-term USD liquidity” in its “hard facts” release. Of course, with everyone swapping cheap euros (obtained probably from the ECB) for US dollars in the currency swap market, rates are starting to reflect the one-sided demand.
ttp://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStoriesV2/20110912/french-nuclear-plant-blast-110912/ L'Autorite de Surete Nucleaire, France's nuclear safety agency, says a furnace exploded at the Centraco nuclear waste treatment site. The blast was completely contained within the furnace, which is used to melt waste. It's still not known what caused the explosion. ASN said there was no leak of radioactive material outside the furnace. "According to initial information, the explosion happened in an oven used to melt radioactive metallic waste of little and very little radioactivity," the agency said in a statement.
Democrats are expressing growing alarm about President Obama’s re-election prospects and, in interviews, are openly acknowledging anxiety about the White House’s ability to strengthen the president’s standing over the next 14 months. 民主党員は以前にもまして、オバマ大統領の再選のチャンスについての不安を表明し、(新聞記者の)インタビュー では大統領の今後14ヶ月の立場を強化してゆくべきホワイトハウスの能力について、その不安を認めている(後略) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *こういう記事が保守派のNROやウイークリー・スタンダードではなく、NYTに掲載されていることに些か驚き(ry
Italy’s centre-right government is turning to cash-rich China in the hope that Beijing will help rescue it from financial crisis by making “significant” purchases of Italian bonds and investments in strategic companies. イタリア政府は債務危機の支援を中国に求め、中国の国富ファンドが「著しい規模の」イタリア国債を購入するよう交渉中 である。
European analysts were cautious over the outcome of talks. Despite Beijing’s numerous expressions of confidence in the creditworthiness of countries such as Greece and Portugal analysts say Chinese purchases of peripheral European debt have been relatively small. How much of Italy’s ?1,900bn of debt is already held by China is unclear, though one Italian official told the FT that Beijing held about 4 per cent. 欧州のアナリストは、このイタリアと中国の交渉に慎重な見方をしていて、中国のこれまでのギリシャやポルトガルの国債 購入への自信にもかかわらず、ユーロ周辺国への中国の国債購入は比較的小規模であるとしている。イタリアの1900Bユーロ のどの程度を中国が既に保有するかは不明瞭であるが、あるイタリアの関係者はFTに中国が既に4%を保有するという(後略)
We know this because we’ve already seen this movie once before. China made waves last year when they announced a firm commitment to buy Greek bonds. Of course, this announcement soothed markets for a few months and then the underlying trends took hold again and we all know what’s going on in Greece today. 中国がユーロ周辺国の国債を買うというのは、昨年のギリシャ国債の時にもあった。それは市場に影響を与えて数ヶ月 市場の上向きの要素となった。しかし、そのあとで市場の元々のトレンドがぶり返した。
You see, what happens when China commits to buy Eurozone debt is that they are actually targeting the exchange rate. It’s no coincidence that the easing fears in late 2010 with regards to Greek/China debt buying ultimately led to a sizable rally in the Euro. Make no mistake, this is an attempt by the Chinese to push the Euro higher and maintain what China views as a favorable exchange rate with EMU nations. 中国のユーロ周辺国の国債購入というのは為替レートへのテコ入れが目的である。2010年のギリシャ危機の時も中国の 国債購入はユーロの為替相場を持ち上げる効果があった。中国はユーロの為替相場を高く保ち、中国からみたEMU諸国へ の輸出競争力を保ちたいだけである(ry
China is no white knight here. They are trying to save their own skin 中国は救済に駆けつける白馬の騎士ではなく自分の利益を守りたいだけである ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- この記事をFTアルファビレが参照して評価しているような ttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/09/13/675636/chinese-bond-purchases-wont-help/ Chinese bond purchases won’t help Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Sep 13 09:04.
Buying Italian debt, whilst useful in the short-term for the Italians, is in fact the very opposite of an ideal solution for the debt crisis. A much more useful scenario would see China dropping its peg, allowing the Chinese people to stimulate European and US businesses and the real economy by buying competitive priced European and US products direct.
The fact that this story leaks just after Italy sold ?11.5bn bills at considerably higher yields than a month ago (?7.5bn 12 month bills at 4.153 per cent up from 2.959 per cent last month and ?4bn 3 month bills at 1.907 per cent, up from 1.034 per cent when similar paper was sold in March) and just before they are due to sell up to ?7bn across 4 bond issues with maturities ranging from 2016 to 2020 today just makes the cynic in me wonder how realistic the probability of Chinese intervention in the short term really is. We have heard this story before with regard to the likes of Spanish and Portuguese bonds and in the end it was ECB buying and EU bail outs that seemed to have taken place rather than anything with a Chinese influence.
To some extent this may reflect the reality that British growth prospects are better because of the depreciated pound, and also the fact that Britain won’t have to deflate the way Spain will thanks to being on the euro. But I believe that De Grauwe is right that the most important factor is that Britain, which can turn to the Bank of England for financing if necessary, doesn’t face the risk of a run by creditors the way Spain does.
What’s needed, clearly, is for Europe ? and ultimately that probably means the ECB ? to provide for Spain and Italy the kind of backstop countries with their own currencies can provide for themselves. Without that, the whole euro system is at risk of unraveling, not over the course of years, but over the course of a few weeks.
Oh, and Britain should give thanks to Gordon Brown, who kept them out of the euro.
ttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/09/13/676056/merkozy-on-merkozy-off/ Dear Diary: 今日の日記(FTアルファビレ) 7.00 ? 8.00 Mkt rallies on Chinese Buying Italian Bonds ? But they were’nt! 中国のイタリア国債購入の報道でマーケットはラリーに、その後、それはないということに 8.00 ? 9.00 Mkt Crashes as Greek Electricity/Tax Office Strikes & therefore default looms. ギリシャ電力会社と税務署のストライキの報道でクラッシュ、デフォルトが近いとの観測 9.00 ? 11.00 Mkt moves sideways to down as BNP in WSJ says that nobody will lend them $’s and nobody likes them. ? But then they deny it! WSJがユーロ圏銀行にはお金を誰もかさないと書いてマーケット下降、その後この報道が否定 11.30 ? 12.30 Mkt rallies like crazy because Sarko & Merkel to make an announcement ? except nobody knows what that the annoucment is for. サルコジとメルケルが何かの発表をするとの報道で市場は基地外のように上昇 12.40 ? 12.50 Mkt Crashes because they’re not going to make announcement サルコジメルケル発表は無いとの報道で市場はクラッシュ 12.56 Figure out how to explain to a child that ‘yes dear, there’s a lot of clever people who think very hard & make very bright decisions in the stock market business! いったいどーなってんの?
Update: 1.18pm (London time) Here we go again, it’s back on. RTRS-GREEK PM PAPANDREOU TO HOLD CONFERENCE CALL WITH MERKEL, SARKOZY ON WEDNESDAY ? GREEK STATE TV パパンデレウ首相が水曜日にサルコジメルケルと電話会談と報道 Update: 1.22pm (London time) Off again. MERKEL SAYS THERE WILL BE NO GERMAN-FRENCH STATEMENT ON GREECE TODAY: BBG メルケル首相は独仏声明発表のニュースを否定
The electricity supply in Germany has been the temporary closure of the seven oldest nuclear power plants rely more on imports from France. The Federal Republic has become the net exporter to net importer of electricity, says the Federal Association of Energy and Water. The government denies this, RWE is feared a blackout in southern Germany.
カイロのイスラエル大使館襲撃事件をうけて、イェルサレム・ポストの評論(部分抜粋) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=237719 Our World: Lessons from the embassy takeover By CAROLINE B. GLICK 09/12/2011 22:39 大使館襲撃事件から学ぶべきこと By CAROLINE B. GLICK イェルサレム・ポスト、12日
Until last weekend, both the Israeli Left and the US foreign policy establishment believed the situation in Egypt was not significantly worse than it had been under deposed president Hosni Mubarak 先週末のカイロの大使館襲撃事件の起こるまでは、イスラエルの左翼とアメリカの外交政策のエスタブリッシュメントは エジプトの状況というのは、ムバラク時代に比べて顕著に悪化したとは思っていなかった。
The behavior of the Egyptian mob and military junta alike served as a wake-up call for two key constituencies. 先週末のエジプトの暴徒と軍事政権の行動は二つの政治集団(イスラエルの左翼とアメリカ)への目覚ましのベルである。
Any assessment of the weekend’s events must begin by recounting a few key aspects of the assault. First, this was the second mob attack on the embassy in so many weeks. 襲撃事件の分析で重要なことが3つあって、第一には、この大使館襲撃事件は過去数週間の二回目のものである Second, for six hours after the assault on the embassy began on Friday evening, Israel’s leaders tried desperately to contact the leaders of the Egyptian military junta to request their intercession on behalf of the trapped security officers. 第二に、金曜日夕刻の大使館襲撃事件を受けてイスラエルの指導者はエジプトの軍事政権とコンタクトしようとして、むな しく6時間あまりを費やした Third, Egyptians authorities refused to intervene to save the lives of the Israeli security officers until after the Americans intervened directly on their behalf. 第三にエジプト政府は、イスラエル大使館の警備担当者の救出のために事件に介入することを拒否していて、それはアメリカ 人が直接的に介入するまで続いた。 As for Israel, the mob’s ability to determine the course of events in Egypt and the junta’s refusal to stand up to the mob on Israel’s behalf is a strong indication that the peace treaty is doomed. 暴徒がエジプトの襲撃事件を思うがままに遂行できたこと、軍事政権がイスラエルの側にたって暴徒の行動に介入することを 拒否したことは、エジプトとイスラエルの平和条約が絶望的な状態にあることを示している
On the other hand, US leverage may end after November’s elections. The Muslim Brotherhood and its allies are expected to win a parliamentary majority and the presidency. 11月のエジプトの選挙はムスリム同胞団とその関連勢力が議会の多数派を占めることになると予想され、アメリカの影響力の 低下が予想される
The Americans should simply monitor the situation and prepare for all contingencies. アメリカは(過剰な介入を避けて)その事態をモニターし非常時対応の準備をすべきである
As for Israel, it must prepare for the possibility of war. It must increase the size of the IDF by adding a division to the Southern Command. It must train for desert warfare. It must expand the Navy. イスラエルは戦争の可能性に備えなくてはならない。イスラエル軍を増強し、、南部方面軍を増強し、砂漠対戦装備を増強 し海軍を増強しなくてはならない。
ConvergEx曰く The difference between investing in Emerging Markets equities, Developed Markets equities, and High Yield bonds is now effectively zero.” 今日、エマージング・マーケットの株式と先進国市場の株式と、ハイイールド債券の間に実際的な(変動リスクの)差がない その証拠となるデータ→ ttp://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2011/09/Correlations.jpg
何故そういうことが起きているのか? Stock markets around the world, but especially in the U.S. and Europe, are trying to fine tune this existential calculus. Markets are trying to discount the survival rate of another cross-border financial pandemic. That is why they move in lock step.
What should happen if the German government decided that it could not support such a bold step? The ECB should go ahead anyway rather than let a cascading collapse unfold. It would then be up to Germany to decide whether to leave, perhaps with Austria, the Netherlands and Finland. The German people should be made aware that the results would include a soaring exchange rate, a massive decline in the profitability of Germany’s exports, a huge financial shock and a sharp fall in gross domestic product. All this would be apart from the failure of two generations of efforts to build a strong European framework around Germany itself.
In the end Germany must choose between a eurozone disturbingly different from the larger Germany it expected or no eurozone at all. I recognise how much its leaders and people must hate having been forced into a position in which they have to make this choice. But it is the one they confront. Chancellor Angela Merkel must now dare to make that choice, clearly and openly.
"Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s prime minister, warned Israel it must “pay a price for its aggression and crimes”, in a passionate speech in Cairo, cementing a foreign policy shift that has alarmed Israel and worried the US."