With more chefs who are schooled in China’s dynamic new restaurant scene, we would see a transformation of the way Chinese food is served in this country.
Originally Posted by Kuang_Grade As it is, if this ad is the best they can come up with, it just makes Japan sound really, really guilty. So rather than smoothing things over, this ad might actually fire things up a bit. -------------------------------------------------------- Hey, smelly kimchi dude. why did you kimchese always end up to foolish conclusion like that? (後略)
ラシュディ氏は75年以降、宗教や文化をテーマとする作品を多数発表。最新作に過 激主義を扱った「シャリマー・ザ・クラウン」(おどけ者シャリマー)がある。 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6756149.stm Last Updated: Friday, 15 June 2007, 23:00 GMT 00:00 UK Rushdie knighted in honours list
His re-emergence has not been without controversy. In backing Jack Straw over his comments on Muslim women wearing veils, Sir Salman said veils "suck" as they were a symbol of the "limitation of women". He also weighed into the furore surrounding the Danish cartoons, which satirised the Prophet Muhammad, warning against Islamic "totalitarianism".
Of his knighthood for services to literature, Rushdie said: "I am thrilled and humbled to receive this great honour, and am very grateful that my work has been recognised in this way."
But the struggle has taken on greater tension as it has increasingly pitted the American diplomats against Ad Melkert, a combative former Dutch politician who is now UNDP’s No. 2 official, known as the associate administrator.
The two U.S. diplomats largely asked the UNDP to turn over all of its own records regarding the transactions, and added specific information about years in which the payments allegedly occurred ----------------------------------------------------------------------- この問題はアメリカの国連チームとUNDPのNo2であるオランダの政治家のAd Melkert の戦いになっているような。問題のひとつは、UNDPのオーディットが国連内部でなされ 情報公開が充分でないと見られていることで、WSJは当初から外部の第三者によるオー ディットを要求する主張をしている。
(抜粋) The real impact, however, has come from the information made public in conjunction with these actions. Worldwide, private financial institutions decided to terminate their business relationships with the designated entities as well as others suspected of engaging in similar conduct. The result is North Korea's virtual isolation from the global financial system. The effect on North Korea has been significant, because even the most reclusive regime depends on access to the international financial system
It is clear to everyone in the world today that the U.S. government takes very seriously its responsibility to preserve the security of the financial system and protect it against abuses of WMD proliferation, money laundering and other illegal activities. We have potent tools that can change behavior. In this case, our financial measures are part of a wider campaign to change North Korean behavior, including the State Department-led effort to bring about a de-nuclearized Korean Peninsula.
問題の工場の経営者が山西省の村の、共産党のボスの息子であることをきちんと書い ている。 People's Daily, carried a lengthy article Friday saying that police had stumbled by accident on slave workers at a brick kiln owned by the son of a village Communist Party boss in Shanxi province at the end of May. The party official's son, Wang Binbin, was quoted by People's Daily as saying he began employing workers provided by human traffickers(ry
この事件は共産党中央が4万5千人の警官を動員する大騒ぎになったのだけれど、発端 は子供たちを探していた両親たちのキャンペーンがインターネットなどで大きく扱わ れた事で、司法機関が自発的に調査、検挙したものではない事が問題のひとつ。 More than 45,000 police have fanned out across Henan and Shanxi provinces to crack down on instances of forced labor. The investigation was prompted, in part, by an Internet campaign mounted by hundreds of parents who said their children have been kidnapped and sold to brickyard owners.
両親たちの救済行動に地元の警官が協力的ではなかった事も書いている。 "We contacted the local police, but they are protecting the brick-kiln owners," Mr. Chai says. "They wouldn't help us."
Gen. David Petraeus said the operation began in the last 24 hours and will put forces into key areas surrounding Baghdad that, according to intelligence, al -Qaida is using to base some of its car bomb operations. David Petraeus司令官に拠れば、この軍事行動は最近の24時間に始まったもので、兵力 をバクダッドを囲む周辺部の鍵となる区域に投入し、アルカイダが自動車爆弾テロの基 地としている場所を攻撃する。(後略)
Global equities climbed to fresh highs this week as investors shrugged aside the recent surge in government bond yields. グローバルな株式市場は今週、新たな高値に到達したが、国債イールドの上昇の懸念を 振り切ったためである。
Marco Annunziata, global chief economist at UniCredit, said the trigger for the rapid rise in bond yields appeared to be a sudden change of heart in the markets about the prospects for US growth. ユニクレジットのエコノミストMarco Annunziataは、国債イールドの高騰の切っ掛けに なったものは、アメリカ経済の成長に対する見方が突然変わった為だと言う。
“Most of the global investment banks which were still forecasting Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2007 suddenly capitulated, as accumulating evidence persuaded them that the US economy had probably bottomed out in the first quarter and would recover thereafter,” he said. 「グローバルな投資銀行の殆どは、FRBが2007年中に利下げすると見ていたのだが、 アメリカ経済が多分Q1に底入れし、その後回復に向かうという納得できる証拠が 幾つか出てきたために、見方を変えた」という。
The rally in yields faltered towards the end of the week, however, as the bond market began to look oversold. しかしながら、国債の市場での今週(半ば)の値下がりが行き過ぎであったので、週 末にかけて見直しがなされ、イールドは戻している。
Further downward pressure on yields came on Friday from the release of some very benign US inflation data. The core consumer price index rose by just 0.1 per cent in May, bringing the year-on-year inflation rate down to 2.2 per cent. 金曜日にCPIが発表されてインフレ懸念が遠のいた。5月のコアCPIは0.1%上昇で 前年比のCPIは2.2%になった。
However, analysts pointed out that the weakness of the figure was largely due to slower gains in rents. “We do not expect the weakness in owners’ equivalent rent to be sustained, based on the pattern of vacancy rates of owned housing and the rental stock,” said Drew Matus, economist at Lehman Brothers. “As a result, we are not optimistic on the overall inflation outlook and continue to see risks from commodity prices, import prices, labour costs and food and energy.” しかしアナリストはCPI上昇の少なさは家賃の弱さによるところが大きいという。 リーマンズラザーズのエコノミストDrew Matusは「家賃の弱さが持続可能であるとは思え ない。空室率や賃貸物件の在庫の状況から、パターンを想定すると、そういう考えになる」
But equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic welcomed the data. The S&P 500 index closed 0.65 per cent higher on Friday, a gain of 1.7 per cent this week. それでも株式市場はアメリカと欧州で、CPIデータを歓迎しS&Pは0.65%上昇した。
Analysts said equities continued to be buoyed by attractive valuations and optimism about merger and acquisition activity. アナリストはM&Aの状況やバリエーションの低さから、株式が継続して浮上すると見 ている。
”The key thing is that the valuation case is still intact. While stock markets have been hitting record highs, price/earnings ratios are still around the same levels they were four years ago, so markets are far from looking expensive.” 「株式市場が史上最高をつけても、PERは依然として4年前と同じで、株式が高すぎる とはいえない情況だ」
Andrew Capon at State Street Global Markets noted that the yen carry trade had continued in spite of the sharp rise in Japanese bond yields. “Investors have continued to sell the yen and buy high yield currencies. This is a big contributor to market liquidity and offers another reason why equity investors have shrugged off events in the bond market,” he said. ステートストリート・グローバルマーケットのAndrew Caponは日本国債のイールドが上が っても円のキャリートレードが続いているという。 「投資家は継続して円を売って、ハイ・イールドの通貨を買っている。これが流動性を助 けていて、株式投資家が国債イールド上昇を無視した理由でもある」
The central bank is concerned that if it does not get on with normalising rates, “it may soon be forced to do so by intensifying foreign pressure”, says Mr Wood. “The BoJ is increasingly uncomfortable with the escalating capital outflows given that the Japanese retail investor forms a key part of the yen carry trade. Indeed with further interest-rate hikes expected elsewhere, the risk is that the capital outflow turns into a tsunami if the BoJ remains on hold.”
The conclusion? Investors should assume that the BoJ will raise rates this summer and probably again by the end of this year unless there is some global external shock. Greed & Fear, he says, is of the view that the Japanese bank stocks are only likely to react fully to the tightening when it actually occurs. It is now also time to sell or at least underweight the property stocks.
Heng has become one of the villains in a national drama over teenage and adult "slaves" forced or cheated into grueling labor in many kilns, mines and plants across Shanxi and Henan provinces. 奴隷工場事件の国家的ドラマのお陰で、彼は国民の敵の代表のような存在になっていた。
The snowballing uproar threatens to stain the ruling Communist Party's promises to build a "harmonious" society with improved rights and income for the nation's hundreds of millions of poor farmers. この事件に対する国民の騒ぎは雪達磨式に大きくなる一方で、共産党のスローガンである 「調和の取れた社会」を建設し、国民の権利や収入を増大させるとの約束を台無しにして いる(後略)
ttp://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/06/17/asia/AS-FEA-GEN-Asia-Tainted-Foods.php?page=2 Some Vietnamese have been so shaken by news of tainted Chinese foods, they are changing their eating habits. They are avoiding Chinese-made products and paying more ― up to US$2 a bowl ― for pho at an air-conditioned chain restaurant with signs promising no formaldehyde or borax.
"I am very, very worried about it," said Duong Thuy Quynh, 31, who was eating beef pho because she was also worried about bird flu in chicken. "I'm ready to pay more to protect myself and my family."
いくらか、HR121に近い記事としては、パルアルトの地元紙に: Some group members said that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) and Congressman Tom Lantos (D-San Mateo/San Francisco) have been giving them the runaround, according to Ignatius Ding, executive vice president of the Global Alliance for Preserving the History of World War II in Asia. ttp://www.paloaltodailynews.com/article/2007-6-9-cup-comfort-women
Cc: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Congressman Mike Honda Chairman Tom Lantos Majority Leader Steny Hoyer Congresswoman Ileana Ros Lehtinen LILA Pilipina-Gabriela
Sarkozy's centre-right UMP party is likely to win a majority of 380-420 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, according to a survey by pollsters Ipsos. (ロイター)サルコジの与党UMPが380-420議席を獲得する模様 --------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFjiYhArJlLw&refer=home Sarkozy's Party Set to Widen Parliamentary Majority (Update2) By Helene Fouquet June 17 (Bloomberg)
The UMP and its allies may win between 380 and 420 seats in the National Assembly, up from 359 in the outgoing chamber, according to the final Ipsos SA-Dell Inc. survey published on the Web site of weekly magazine Le Point. That would be close to three-quarters of the 577-member assembly. Voting ends at 8 p.m. in France's largest cities. Ipsosの最終世論調査から推計すると380-420議席(現有359議席)をUMPが獲得し、これは 577議席の議会の四分の三程度の多数派になる。
It is cacophony. In a kind of movement suicidal, the chiefs of the socialist Party will not have even awaited the second turn of the elections. Like if, noncontent with a severe defeat with 140 deputies PS (on 577), they preferred a rout with less than 80 elected officials. (略) Under these conditions, one cannot exclude any more that the final result of this evening corresponds to the most extreme assumptions of the institutes of survey: 500 deputies of right-hand side and an about sixty Socialists, Communists, centrists and independent dividing the remainders. In this case, not only the PS would lose half of its public financing, but still ten heads of poster of the party would be beaten. Of which closest lieutenants de Royal Ségolène.
Pollster Ipsos-Dell projected Sarkozy's centre-right allies would win about 340 seats in the National Assembly, well below the 470 seats predicted in some pre -poll estimates. Ipsos-Dellの予測ではUMPは340議席を占める模様で、一部の機関の予測していた470議席 といった圧勝にならない模様
The CSA institute projected 232 Socialists, Communists and Greens would face them in the 577-seat legislature. CSAは社会党、共産党、グリーンらの左翼勢力が232議席を取ると予想
The run-off ballots confirmed the two big parties had squeezed the smaller groups. The centrist Democratic Movement of Francois Bayrou was projected to win 5 seats, a disappointment after bagging 18.5 percent of votes in presidential elections. 第二次選挙の結果、2大政党が勢力を伸ばし、中道派のBayrouのDemocratic Movementは5 議席に留まるもよう。
The Communists were seeking to save 18 of their 21 seats, the Greens were seen increasing their number to four while the far-right National Front failed to win a seat. 共産党は以前の21議席が18議席に、グリーンは4議席、極右のNational Frontは議席を 得られない。
The news heralded a fresh bout of feuding within the party, with the weakened Hollande under heavy pressure to bow out after the left's latest election defeat and Royal clearly manoeuvring to take over the party leadership. 社会党は党首のHollandeは、党内での辞任への強い圧力に面している。ロワイヤルが党 の指導権を握ると予想される。
ttp://euronews.net/index.php?page=info&article=428108&lng=1 The left are breathing a sigh of relief, having confounded the pollsters. The Socialist Party were predicted to be on course for a massive loss, but the latest exit polls suggest they will end up with between 202 and 210, that is considerably more than the 149 seats they held last time round. (ユーロニュース) 左翼陣営は、ほっと安堵の息をついている。世論調査の事前の予測では、社会党は大きく 議席を減らすとしていたが、出口調査では202-210議席を獲得し、これは選挙前の149議席 に比べて大きな数字である。
NYTの記事では http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/17/world/europe/18cnd-france.html?hp In the most high-stakes contest, Alain Juppé, Mr. Sarkozy’s minister of a new high-profile ministry for the environment, transportation and energy and the mayor of Bordeaux, lost to a Socialist. サルコジ内閣の環境・エネルギー・運輸大臣に任命されていたボルドー市長のアラン・ ジュぺが落選。
In a less important but symbolic defeat for the governing party, Jean-Louis Bruguière, who as France’s leading antiterrorist investigative magistrate earned a global reputation over the years, also lost to a Socialist. テロ対策の治安判事として著名であったJean-Louis Bruguièreが落選している。
Still, the overall win by Mr. Sarkozy’s center-right party marked the first time in 29 years that a governing party has retained its majority in the lower house of Parliament. Both the left and the right claimed victory. それでもサルコジの中道右派の勝利は、29年目に始めて政権与党が下院の過半数を維持す ることになり、左派党派の双方が勝利を宣言している。
LE second turn of the legislative elections did not amplify the results of the first turn. The line leaves victorious these elections but undergoes an erosion in a number of seats. The left resists announced blue vagueness, benefitting in particular from a good carryforward of voice of the voters of the Modem.
THE MODEM REFEREE OF THE SECOND TURN
If one observes the transfers of voice in the districts where the outgoing Socialists were in unfavourable ballot, it seems well, within sight of the first known results, which the Modem produced a decisive support to the elected officials of the left. According to a CSA-Cisco survey carried out Sunday evening (on the telephone, in the residence of 1.000 people) 55% of the voters having voted for the Modem with the first turn would have voted for the left-wing candidate to the second turn, against 28% only for the right-wing candidate. ・・・ Whereas the PS had called with a strong mobilization of the abstentionnists of left - which would not have taken place -, it thus seems that they are rather the voters of the Modem who were the craftsmen of the good performance of the opposition.
President Nicolas Sarkozy on Sunday night won a solid parliamentary majority to push through his reform agenda, in spite of a surprise rebound by France’s opposition Socialists who had stoked last-minute fears of the government’s tax-raising plans. フランス社会党の驚くようなリバウンドにも関わらず、サルコジは議会で改革を進める 為に必要な安定多数を確保した。社会党は与党の増税政策への、最終段階での恐怖を 煽った(stoked)
The ruling centre-right UMP and its allies had a reduced majority, with 346 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, according to Interior Ministry figures. Even so, this is the first time a sitting government has been returned to office since 1978. 与党のUMPとその同盟勢力は議席を減らし、577議席の議会の346議席を占めることに なったが、それでもこれは、政権与党が(大統領選挙の後)議会多数派勢力を維持する事 のできた1978年以来はじめてのことである。
The Socialist party and its allies performed far better in the second round than polls had forecast and increased their parliamentary representation to 231 seats. 社会党とその同盟者は第二次投票では、世論調査が予測したよりはずっと良い結果を出し 議席は231となった。
The government had indicated it could raise “social VAT” rates by 5 percentage points to 24.5 per cent as part of its strategy of cutting social charges for employees and shifting the tax burden on to consumption. 政府は「社会付加価値税」を5%上げて24.5%にする可能性をいい、税負担を所得税から 消費税にシフトする考えを示していた。
Some UMP politicians said they were angry about this “major error of communication” that had cost many deputies their seats. UMPの一部の政治家は、これを「コミ二ケーションの大きな誤り」と述べて選挙戦略 の失敗として怒っている。(後略)
>>195 ttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anzknpNc0Cbg&refer=home With a majority of about 100 seats, Sarkozy, 52, isn't likely to trim an agenda of tax cuts, reductions in medical reimbursements, and easier firing rules against a revived opposition, analysts said. The president, elected six weeks ago, is also promising action on hot-button issues including university autonomy and labor's right to strike. (ブルームバーグ)野党に対して100議席以上の多数派を獲得しているサルコジ大統領は 減税政策をかえたり、医療費償還の削減や、野党労働組合の反対する解雇を容易にする 政策を変更しないだろうとアナリストは見ている。大統領は学生らとの争点になりそう な大学の自治問題や(公共労組の)労働者のストライキの権利の見直しを約束している。
The results ``don't change the Sarkozy power situation,'' said Laurent Dubois, a politics professor at Sorbonne University in Paris. ``He still holds a large majority.'' ソルボンヌ大学の政治学教授、Laurent Duboisは、今回の選挙結果は「サルコジの権力 状況を変えるわけではない」という。「彼は依然として、大きなマジョリティを握って いる」
``The social VAT could be the main casualty of this election,'' said Eric Chaney, Morgan Stanley's chief European economist in London. ``The pace of reforms could be slowed'' because unions ``could take the outcome general elections as an unexpected bonus for the anti-reformist camp.'' ロンドンのモルガンスタンレーのエコノミスト、Eric Chaneyは「社会付加価値税が選挙 の被害者になるかもしれない」という。労組など改革反対勢力が「選挙結果を思いがけぬ ボーナスとして反対運動を強めるなら、改革が遅れるかもしれない」
Sarkozy's camp, which now controls parliament for five years, has signaled it's not willing to cede much ground. Presidential chief of staff Claude Gueant said May 8 that he didn't envision ``unions going against the will of the French people'' because they ``represent just 8 percent'' of employees. しかしサルコジ陣営は反対派に多く譲るつもりは無い。大統領スタッフの主任、Claude Gueantは5月8日に「労働組合は労働者の8%を代表するに過ぎない。彼らはフランス国民 の意思に反して行動している」といっている。(後略)
In recent months, lower credit bonds -- conventionally defined as BB+ and below -- have traded at a smaller risk premium (as compared to U.S. Treasuries) than ever before in history. Over the past 20 years, this margin averaged 5.42 percentage points. Shortly before the Asian crisis in 1998, the spread was hovering just above 3 percentage points. Earlier this month, it touched down at a record 2.63 percentage points. That's less than 8% money for high-risk borrowers. この数ヶ月、信用度の低い債券、つまりBB+以下の債券が(アメリカ国債のイールドに比 べて)歴史的にみて、とても低いリスク・プレミアで取引されている。過去20年に渡って、 このマージンは平均5.42%である。1998年のアジア金融危機の直前にはスプレッドは3% を上回った。今月初めにはスプレッドが2.63%と低い値になった。それは8%のハイリス クの借金より金利が少ないことになる。 (略) Like past bubbles, the current ahistorical performance of high-yield markets has led seers and prognosticators to proclaim yet another new paradigm, one in which (to their thinking) the likelihood of bankruptcy has diminished so much that lenders need not demand the same added yield over the Treasury or "risk-free" rate that they did in the past. 過去のバブルと同じで、現在の歴史的に見て異常なハイイールド市場の状況は、占い師や 預言者をして、新しいパラダイムの出現、とか言わせている。彼らの言い分では破産の可 能性が殆ど無くなって、国債に比べて追加の金利の上乗せを求める必要性が減ったのだと いう。(略)
Some portion of this phenomenon seems to reflect tastes in Asia and elsewhere, where much of the excess liquidity resides: Foreign investors own only about 13% of U.S. equities but 43% of Treasury debt. In search of higher yields, these investors are moving into corporate and sovereign debt. Today, the debt of countries like Colombia trades at less than two percentage points above U.S. Treasuries, compared to 10 percentage points five years ago.
Perhaps the mispricing of high-yield debt has been exacerbated by the surge in derivatives, a generally useful lubricant of the financial markets. Banks hold far fewer loans these days; mostly, they resell them, often to hedge funds, which frequently layer on still more leverage, thereby exacerbating the risks. 恐らくはハイイールド債券の価格付の誤りは、一般論としては金融市場の潤滑剤として 有益なデリバティブの増大によるところがあって、銀行は従来に比べてローンを保有す る事は少なく、殆どの場合彼等はそれを再販売し、しばしばヘッジファンのに対してそ うするのだが、ヘッジファンドは大きなレバレッジをかけていてリスクを増大させる。 (略) The bigger -- and harder -- question is whether the correction will trigger the economic equivalent of a multi-car crash, in which the initial losses incur large enough damages to sufficiently slow spending enough to bring on recession, much like what happened during the telecom meltdown a half-dozen years ago.
But we have little choice but to sit back and watch this car accident happen. It would have been a mistake to dispatch the Federal Reserve to deflate the dot-com mania or the housing bubble. And it would be a mistake now for the Fed to rescue imprudent high-yield lenders. They have to learn the hard way. Hopefully, not too many innocent bystanders will share their pain. いずれにせよ我々は事故が起こるにせよそれを傍観するしかない。もしFRBがドットコム・ バブルや住宅産業バブルを潰すように動いていれば、それは誤りというべきであろうし、 無分別なハイイールドの債権者を救済することも誤りである。彼等は酷い目にあって学習 する必要がある。望むらくは、余りに多い無垢な第三者が被害にあわないように有りたい ものだが。
ロシアのインタファクス通信は18日、北朝鮮が7月後半に寧辺の原子炉を封印する 計画だと報じた。北京発で北朝鮮外交筋の話として伝えた。 [6月18日15時40分] -------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.chinapost.com.tw/latestnews/46964.htm Interfax: North Korea plans to shut down nuclear reactor in late July Monday, June 18, 2007 MOSCOW (AP)
North Korea plans to shut down its Yongbyon nuclear reactor in the second half of July, the Interfax-China news agency reported, citing an unnamed North Korean official in Beijing. "Based on our specialists' evaluations, it will take one month to technically shut down the reactor. This way, we expect to seal it in accordance with agreements reached at six-party talks in the second half of July 2007," the official was quoted as saying. 北朝鮮の高官は「我々の専門家の評価では、原子炉の封鎖に1ヶ月を要する。このため、 6者会合の合意事項に従った封鎖は、7月中ごろになる」と語ったと報道している。
``This is clearly a huge blow for the organization,'' Motoi Tamaki, chief director at Tokyo's Modern Korea Institute, said. ``The group is one step away from complete dissolution.'' 近代コリアの編集者Motoi Tamakiは「この判決は総連にとって大きな痛手だ」という。 「総連は崩壊に近づいている」
Chongryon, founded in 1947, was set up to represent the interests of North Koreans resident in Japan and many of them donated money and goods to the organization and schools run by the group. Some of the funds were funneled to the Stalinist regime in North Korea, which regularly criticizes Japan. 朝鮮総連は1947年創立、日本国内に住む北朝鮮人の利益を代表する組織として作られ、 国内の献金を得て学校やその他の組織を運営してきたが、集められた資金の一部が北朝 鮮に送金され、日本国内の批判を受けている。
A Japanese court on Monday ordered the group acting as North Korea's de facto embassy to repay huge debts initially covered by a government-backed debt relief program, in the latest blow against the Pyongyang-linked organization. 日本の法廷は月曜日に北朝鮮の事実上の大使館として働いているグループに対して、巨額 の債務の支払いを命じた。これは最初に政府が行なった負債支援計画に関連するもので、 北朝鮮関連のグループに対する最新の打撃となった。(後略)
The court's decision comes amid a steady crackdown on the organization, which functions as Pyongyang's de facto embassy in Japan because the two countries have no diplomatic ties. Japan has tightened trade and immigration policies regarding North Korea amid ongoing disputes over the communist country's nuclear weapons program and its abductions of Japanese citizens. 日本と北朝鮮の間には国交が無く、今日の判決は事実上の大使館として機能してきたグ ループへの締め付け(弾圧)の一貫で、日本政府は北朝鮮の核問題、拉致問題の為に貿易 を遮断し、入国管理を厳しくしている。
Sunday, June 17, 2007 A Message from 121 Coalition Leader Annabel Park
On Saturday, after a reception in Los Angeles, Congressman Tom Lantos spoke to the press and announced that H.Res.121 will be marked up on June 26th. He said he will take responsibility for shepherding it through the Foreign Affairs committee and then a vote in the U.S. House of Representatives. He predicted that it will pass by a wide margin.
We still have a great deal of work ahead of us. It is not over and it is not yet time to celebrate. This is a very critical moment.
Right now, we have 141 co-sponsors of the resolution (including Congressman Honda). Let's set two goals. --Have H.Res.121 come to the House floor for a vote with over 200 co-sponsors --Have it pass unanimously. Posted by M. Evelina Galang at 11:56 PM
The problem for the Fed is that there are enough people in Washington who think it was a catastrophic error. There will almost certainly be a lengthy investigation into the matter. If that investigation turns up legal technicalities that go against the Fed, then hearings will happen, and heads may roll. ・・ The worst outcome is this: If somebody in Congress disagrees with the Fed's monetary policy, they now have a weapon they can use against the central bank. That can't be good for monetary policy.
By allowing the New York Fed to be a pawn of the State Department and the North Koreans, Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has introduced the Fed into a complicated diplomatic game that has nothing to do with its legal responsibilities.
Chang and Ding also suggested that if Lantos, who represents a district that is 33 percent Asian American, can’t communicate with them, then perhaps it’s time for new representation.
Ding said he is "totally puzzled" by the treatment they have received from Lantos’ office. "He has been good to us, until recently," Ding said.
Ding said the groups have several candidates in mind, including one well-qualified Asian American woman, who he declined to name.
The PRC has a broad ASAT research and development program, investigating a variety of ASAT techniques. These include the development of radio frequency (RF) weapons for jamming satellite signals, ground-based lasers for effectively blinding satellite sensors, and, perhaps, a 'parasitic micro-satellite' or 'piggy-back' satellite program.
In August-September 2006, US reconnaissance satellites were 'painted' or 'illuminated' by 'high-power' ground-based lasers on several occasions as they passed over China. Several reports stated that these were ASAT tests, although some analyses suggest that they may have been 'low-power' illuminations from Chinese satellite laser ranging (SLR) stations intended to precisely determine satellite orbits. [6]
So only about one-quarter of the villages surveyed say they still have some surplus labor below the age of 40. And this percentage is smaller in central China (24%) and the west (23.6%) than in the east (28.4%). This suggests the supply of cheap labor from the relatively poorer central and western regions is declining. This also indicates that the labor shortage is spreading from the economically booming east-coastal regions to the inland. この結果、四分の一の村落に、都市部に流出する、40歳以下の過剰労働力がある事がわか った。中国中央部(24%)および西部(23.6%)、東部(28.4%)など。これらの事実は、 比較的貧しい中部および西部の安価な労働力は減少に向かっており、労働力不足が沿海部 から内陸に向かって広がっている事を示している。 (略) In fact, after east-coast regions began to suffer labor shortages a few years ago, wage increases for rural migrants began accelerating. According to the green paper, the average monthly wage of a rural migrant worker grew from 781 yuan (US$102) in 2003 to 953 yuan ($125) in 2006. The year-on-year pay increment rate was 2.8% in 2004, 6.5% in 2005 and 11.5% in 2006. 実際問題として沿岸部東部の地域の労働力不足は数年前から始まっており、賃金の上昇が 起こっている。調査報告書に拠れば農村部からの出稼労働者の月間所得は2003年の781元 ($102)から2006年の953元($125)に増加している。年間の賃金上昇率は2004年に2.8%、 2005年に6.5%、2006年には11.5%に達している。
Moreover, the proportion of rural workers making 600 yuan or more a month has also been on the rise - from 43.2% in 2003 to 63.6% in 2006. And last year, the proportion of rural migrant workers making 1,000 yuan or more a month accounted for 25.9% of the total. これに加えて、月間600元以上の収入を得る農村部からの出稼ぎ労働者は2003年に43.2%で あったが、2006年に63.6%になっている。昨年には1000元以上の収入のある出稼労働者が 25.9%に達した。
In fact, as Asia Times Online reported on June 6 (HK SMEs withdraw from mainland China), more than 2,600 of the 8,000 Hong Kong-invested small and medium-sized enterprises involved in the processing and assembly factory business have pulled out of the Pearl River Delta region after suffering labor shortages and tax increases. 本誌アジアタイムズが6月6日に報告したとおり、パールリバー・デルタ地域の製造業に進 出していた香港の8000の中小企業のなかの2600が、労働力の不足と税金増大の為にこの地 域から撤退している。 (後略)
WSJの市況ウオッチのブログ(マーケットビート)から ttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/ June 18, 2007, 4:25 pm Adjustments in market expectations for Fed policy, inflation and interest rates have produced an increase in volatility, one that is likely to continue as the yield curve continues to steepen, says Tobias Levkovich, head of strategy at Citigroup. That’ll benefit large-cap stocks, particularly information technology and pharmaceuticals/biotech. “A higher VIX should lead to stronger stock price performance in these market segments,” he writes in commentary.
The triumph of hope over experience looms large over the Japanese stock market. The market is still less than half its 1989 peak and during the past 12 months has lagged behind the US, Europe, the UK and Hong Kong. Undeterred, foreigners keep lapping up Japanese shares, accumulating a record 28 per cent slice of the market by the end of March 2007. That pits foreigners – along with the Japanese government – against other investors, from domestic retail to banks, who saw their share of the market shrink. 日本の株式市場に期待が高まっている。東京株式市場は依然として1989年のピークの半分 にも満たないが、そして過去12ヶ月の実績は米国や欧州、英国、香港等に及ばないのだが。 それでも外国人投資家は日本株を買っていて。2007年3月末現在で、記録的な28%のシェアを占めている。日本国内の個人投資家や銀行はその反対で、そのシェアが縮小している。
Who is reading the market correctly? Locals were badly burnt when the market collapsed and are now more comfortable buying up high-yielding overseas currencies. Goldman Sachs' dealings with investors suggest Europeans are the most pessimistic foreigners on Japan – not surprisingly, since the yen's depreciation against the euro has further undermined year-to-date performance – while US and Asian investors are more gung-ho. どちらが正しくマーケットを読んでいるのだろう?日本国内投資家は市場の崩壊で酷いめ にあって今では外国のハイイールド通貨の資本に投資している。ゴールドマンサックスに 拠れば欧州の投資家が最も日本に悲観的で、それはユーロが円に比べて高くなっている事 からも理解できる。しかし米国とアジアの投資家はより積極的である。
Much of that is predicated on hope: the market remains relatively expensive and returns continue to lag behind other main markets. Bullish investors see a number of catalysts to lift returns, including the increasing wave of shareholder activism and scope to re-leverage balance sheets. More optimistic still are expectations of a wave of corporate activity that has been successfully kept in check so far by a cocktail of poison pills and friendly shareholdings. 彼等は期待に賭けているところが多くて、東京市場は比較的高価で、市場からのリターン は継続的に他の市場に劣っている。強気の投資家は株主の発言権向上の活動や、バランス シートの再レバレッジ化などをみている。株式持合いやポイゾンピルは抑制されている。
The record of activism so far has likewise been poor, although dividends and takeover premiums are slowly rising. The payout ratio has risen from 19 per cent at the start of 2005 to almost 27 per cent this year, according to Goldman Sachs, while takeover premiums have almost trebled to 24 per cent, based on the average share prices two months before a bid. Given the small amount of takeover activity, however, and comparable dividends in the region, that may not be enough to reward foreigners for bucking the trend. 株主の発言活動は相変わらず低調だが、配当性向や買収プレミアは向上していてゴールド マンサックスによれば2005年の配当性向19%が今年は27%になっている。買収プレミアはほ ぼ3倍増の24%になった。(TOBの2ヶ月前の株価との比較)。しかし買収は少なく配当 も他の地域の市場に比べれば少ない野で、これらは投資家のトレンドを正当化するには弱 すぎる材料だが。
HONG KONG - China will begin to feel the pain of labor shortages nationwide in the next couple of years - much earlier than previously forecast - as the country's seemingly ample supply of rural migrant workers dries up, according to the latest studies by state think-tanks. 中国の国立シンクタンクの調査に拠れば、中国の労働力は今後数年以内に不足をきたす。 これは従来考えられてきたよりも早いもので、従来は地方の安価な労働力の供給が充分 潤沢であるとされてきた。
This will make a significant impact, forcing China's economy, which relies heavily on labor-intensive export-oriented manufacturing, to undergo a profound restructuring. この事実は中国経済にとって大きなインパクトが有る。中国経済は労働集約的な輸出用の 製造業に大きく依存しており、それら製造業が深刻な構造改革を迫られる。
A new survey conducted by the Development Research Center of the State Council, China's cabinet, has found the supply of rural labor in the country is not as ample as generally thought. この調査は内閣のシンクタンク、NDRCの指導したもので、地方農村部からの労働力供 給が従来考えられていたほど潤沢ではないことがわかった。
The survey, which covered 2,749 villages in 17 provinces, shows that on average 74% of the villages no longer any surplus laborers available to work in distant cities. 調査は17の省、2749の村落について行なわれ、平均的に74%の村落が、都市部に流出すべ き過剰労働力を有していないことが解った。
イギリスの友達と最近の中国の番狂わせな煉瓦工場の奴隷の件を話して、あまり驚かせ て、彼はひと言述べて:“Fail your children, fail the country”。 自分の子供に背く国家は、失敗の国家です。別の角度からえば、煉瓦工場事件も中国の 全体の管理体系で、政府機構の失敗で、組織が効力を失う明らかな証拠と言えます。
バクダッド郊外のDiyala地方、Baquba等を中心にした、大規模なアルカイダ掃討作戦 が始まっているようなのだけれど、国内メディアの報道が殆ど無い。 ------------------------------------------------------------------- マイケル・ヨンの報告では: ttp://michaelyon-online.com/wp/be-not-afraid.htm Be Not Afraid
Thoughts flow on the eve of a great battle. By the time these words are released, we will be in combat. Few ears have heard even rumors of this battle, and fewer still are the eyes that will see its full scope.
Collectively, it is probably the largest battle since “major hostilities” ended more than four years ago. Even the media here on the ground do not seem to have sensed its scale. ------------------------------------------------------------------- ビル・ロジオのイラク報告では:「Arrowhead Ripper」作戦 ttp://billroggio.com/archives/2007/06/the_battle_of_baquba.php The Battle of Baqubah II June 19, 2007 9:38 AM
Dubbed Operation Arrowhead Ripper, the offensive is massive in scale. This is a division sized operation of "approximately 10,000 Soldiers, with a full complement of attack helicopters, close air support, Strykers and Bradley Fighting Vehicles."
ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/86600.htm Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Jing Guang Center Beijing, China June 18, 2007 国務省ファイル:ヒル国務次官補記者会見記録、6月18日、北京にて
ttp://www.bis.doc.gov/News/2007/Rule%20text.pdf (81ページ) Revisions and Clarification of Export and Reexport Controls for the People’s Republic of China (PRC); New Authorization Validated End-User; Revision of Import Certificate and PRC End-User Statement Requirements
日本の外貨準備は$1000Bという規模であるから、その一部でも株式に資金が流れるなら 市場に大きな影響があると見られる。利回りだけでなく、国営ファンドの外国通貨投資 は円安に対する効果や、日本のアジア金融センター構想にも寄与すると期待される。 (FTアルファビラは、日本が金融センターになるには、企業税制の所得税40%を下げる事 が先決と書いているけれど) (though we at FT Alphaville believe the only thing that will help Japan promote itself as a financial centre is to reform its 40 per cent top corporate tax rate).
もし、その構想が実現した場合には: “If adopted, it will take at least two years to come to full fruition, but if they quickly outsource some investments, the impact will start to be felt even before the funds flow. Along with all the other GICs in formation (and more are likely to follow), the greatest effect will be on global equities, where we expect a 20 per cent re-rating effect over the next five years, as the amounts of assets involved are huge and the supply of equities remains quite tight”, says Mr Vaile. グローバルに株式市場にポジティブな影響があるかもしれない。
>>252 ただし、この構想は自民党の一部に強く押す声があるものの、安倍首相ラトップの決断 次第で、参議院選挙の勝敗をまたないと、先行きが見えないと言う・・・ Much will depend on the mandate that the administration of PM Shintaro Abe receives in the forthcoming July election for the upper house of the Diet, or parliament”, he notes.
これはまあ、真面目な話と言うよりは、無責任に楽しいスペキュレーションをして、 ひとつのネタとして読むべきものであろうけれど、グローバルマーケットがそろそろ ピークを迎えるのかもすれない、というチャート分析のお話・・・(グラフを見てニ ヤニヤする為のもので、内容をまともに論じるつもりは無いのですが) --------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.financialsense.com/Market/barbera/2007/0619.html Today's Market WrapUp 06.19.2007 The Top Ten Signals That Global Stock Markets Have Topped BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT
WSJ(米国版、社説):ブラックストーンへの課税 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Maybe Blackstone should have floated its IPO in Beijing, or at least London.
The Senators do ask a fair question: Why should private equity partnerships have the advantages of corporate designation -- most importantly the access to capital markets -- without having to pay corporate income tax? One answer is that the companies owned by these equity funds do pay corporate income tax when they earn income. The payments these companies make to the equity partnership are dividend payments -- and thus should be taxed as such. There is a sound rationale for the passive income exclusion: It ensures that corporate income tax isn't collected twice on the same income stream.
China's slavery scandal widened Tuesday with the state-run press reporting that young girls had been forced into prostitution at a brickyard work camp where abuse and beatings were routine. 中国の煉瓦工場の奴隷労働が大きな騒ぎになっている中、中国国営のメディアが少女が 煉瓦工場の従業員の為に強制的に売春させられていたと報じた為、スキャンダルが広が っている。煉瓦工場では殴打等の暴力が日常化していた。
Two girls aged 17 and 16 had been forced into prostitution at the Wangjiang brick factory in Hebei province, immediately to the north of Henan, in 2004, according to the report that was picked up by the Xinhua news agency. 新華社の報じた記事では2004年に河北省のWangjiang煉瓦工場で、16歳と17歳の少女が売 春を強要されていたとしている。(後略)
(APの記事省略、裁判官の発言や記者の問い合わせに教育省が詳細(学校名とか)を 開示することを拒否したと記述。更に、同じ地区で2004年8月から11月の間に、別の教師 Li Guangが23人の女児を強姦した事件(裁判で死刑を宣告)や、その事件の為に地方政府 の教育担当高官が罷免された事との関連についてもコメントを拒否されたと書いている)
OECD報告は韓国が通貨の切り上げを許容し、通貨への介入を減らしたたことを評 価し、政府が今後の通貨の上向き圧力を緩和したいのであれば資本の流出規制を緩め るべきという。「国外と国内の間の公平な投資機会をつくるべきであり、海外投資へ の支援拡大など短気の資本流出を促進する政策を避けるべきである」 If financial authorities wanted to further moderate upward pressure on the exchange rate they should relax barriers to capital outflows, the report said. “The objective should be to create a level playing field between foreign and domestic investment opportunities, while avoiding measures, such as the expansion of public support for overseas investment, which encourage outflows in the short run,” the report said.
While Sino-Japanese business and trade ties continue to highlight the importance of good relations and political relations are slowly recovering, there is optimism that the potential spoilers will be dealt with. 経済的に強い関係を維持している日中両国の、政治的関係が、穏やかなスピードで改善に 向かっている。日中関係に波風を立てる材料はなくならないものの、それに対処してゆく 事が可能だとの楽観的な見方が出ている。(後略) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-06/20/content_897887.htm Hu: Sino-Japan ties face opportunities By Le Tian (China Daily) Updated: 2007-06-20 06:53
WSJ:NYSEは午後に下落、国債イールド上昇で DJIA 13489.42 -146.00 -1.07% Nasdaq 2599.96 -26.80 -1.02% S&P 500 1512.84 -20.86 -1.36% The market action was "dictated by the bond and energy markets," said Michael Murphy, president of Piney Run Partners. Investors "moved away from yield -watching" on Tuesday but were right back at it on Wednesday, he said. ------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=GNK1%21&o=&a=V%3A5&z=610x300&d=medium&b=bar&st= CME225=18090 ------------------------------------------------ ttp://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EVIX&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c= CBOEのVIX=14.69 Up 1.84 (14.32%)
Two big hedge funds at Bear Stearns Cos. were close to being shut down last night as a rescue plan developed over several days fell apart in a drama that could have wide-ranging consequences for Wall Street and investors. ベア・スターンズの二つの巨大ヘッジ・ファンドが閉鎖に直面している。救済計画が 立てられてきたが、それがまとまらず、広範囲に被害の及ぶことも予想される。
Merrill Lynch & Co., one of the hedge funds' lenders, said it would move to seize collateral -- much of it mortgage-backed debt -- from the two funds and sell it, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. At the same time, the funds' managers worked with a handful of other key lenders, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp., to pay off the funds' $9 billion in loans, according to a person familiar with the matter. メリルリンチが、このファンドの担保を、多くがモーゲージ担保負債であるが、二つの ファンドから回収するという。ファンドのマネージャーはゴールドマンサックス、バン ク・オブ・アメリカなどの主要な貸し手と話し合いを行なっている。
ベアスターンズのファンドマネージャーらは、$1.5Bの新規クレディットと$500Mの 新規株式資本をもとに、ファンド資産の流動化を避けようとしていた。 (Those plans come despite efforts by the Bear Stearns fund managers to stave off liquidation by lining up $1.5 billion in new credit from parent company Bear Stearns and an additional $500 million in new equity capital.)
サブプライム・モーゲージ関連の金融ビジネスに関わる人たちは、資産再評価の話題 を避けたい。それはしばしば防潮門のようなものだ、とJanet Tavakoliが言っている。 "No one in the subprime business wants to ask the question of whether they need to re-mark all the assets. That would open the floodgates," said Janet Tavakoli, president of Tavakoli Structured Finance, a consulting firm in Chicago. "Everyone is trying to stop the problem, but they should face up to it. The assets may all be mispriced."
The rout highlights the risks investors take when they buy illiquid and hard-to -value securities. Fire sales in times of stress can trigger dramatic changes in pricing in such markets, perhaps leading other holders of assets to mark their values down and triggering demands for additional collateral from lenders.
Kathleen Shanley, analyst at research firm Gimme Credit, said the unravelling of the Bear Stearns funds was “at best an embarrassment for Bear Stearns, and at worst it threatens to have a ripple effect on valuations across the subprime sector”
The ABX derivative index, which tracks home loans made to risky subprime borrowers in the second half of last year, dropped to a record low of 59.25 on Wednesday
"He is expected to arrive in Pyongyang shortly after 12:30 p.m.," a source said while speaking on condition of anonymity. 「ヒル国務次官補は、今日の12:30頃に到着予定」
The trip will last until Friday, when Hill is scheduled to return to Seoul to brief his South Korean counterparts on his trip to Pyongyang. ヒル国務次官補のピョンヤン訪問は金曜日まで出、帰路にソウルに立ち寄って報告する。 ------------------------------------------------------- <NYTのオーニシ記事> ttp://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/21/world/asia/21korea.html End of Dispute Paves Way for North Korean Nuclear Talks By NORIMITSU ONISHI Published: June 21, 2007
ttp://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=182014 The agency, quoting diplomatic sources, said Hill left Osan air base on a US military plane at 11:22 am (0222 GMT). It said the plane would arrive in Pyongyang at 12:30.
``Exports overall continue to be solid, carried by increased shipments to Asia and Europe, and the yen's weakness is no doubt a help,'' said Junko Nishioka, an economist at ABN Amro Securities Japan Ltd. ``The worst seems to be over in the U.S. and that's a good sign for Japan.'' --------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.nikkei.co.jp/keiki/news/20070621de2ifk01414.html (6/21)5月の貿易黒字、前年同月比9.3%増の3895億円 日本経済新聞
``We have an application in to Japanese regulators for a discretionary fund management license to enable us to allocate pension fund money in our fund or other alternative investments,'' Scholes said in an interview in Tokyo yesterday. 昨日東京で「我々は一任ファンド・マネジメントのライセンスを規制当局に申請して いる」と語った。
Scholes' Platinum Grove Asset Management, based in Rye Brook, New York, manages about $4.5 billion, he said. About 10 percent of its funds come from Japanese investors. Its Japanese arm, which has nine employees, started in Tokyo in November and was registered as a securities investment adviser in March, according to documents provided by the company. Scholes氏の管理するNYのプラチナグローブ・アセット・マネジメントは$4.5Bをもち 10%の資産が日本からのものと言う。日本支社は9人からなり11月に設立されて、3月に 証券投資アドバイザーとして登録した。
煉瓦工場事件は被害者の数だけでなく、中央政府が遅れた事件対応についてのメディア報 道を如何に操作出来るかを見る上でも注目すべきものである。この事件では膨大な量の人 間を、つまり35000人の警官を動員して、7500の都市を調査させた。国営メディアは共産党 の対処を賞賛するようにと命令された(State media were ordered to applaud the Party's response.)
一部の国民、例えば煉瓦向上の奴隷児童の父親は、勇敢にも自己の力で裁きを実現しよう と努力している。インターネットを武器にして、彼らは今そういう事を可能ならしめるメ カニズムを手にしている。インターネットにカキコする一般国民の報告者や告発者たちは メインストリーム・メディアの触れることの出来ない事項について、検閲をすり抜けて問 題を掘り下げるような、クリエイティブなやり方を工夫している。情報の自由な流れが徐 々に中国を変化させると信じる人にとって、これは勇気付けられることである。しかしな がら、この先の道のりは長く、暴露すべき奴隷煉瓦工場(のような暗黒部)は依然として 数多いのだ。(This is encouraging for those who believe freer flows of information will slowly change China. But there's a long road ahead, and many more brick kilns to uncover.)
No trends in the U.S. foreign policy debate are more dangerous than self -flagellation and defeatism. Lt. Gen. William Odom is guilty of both ("21 Solutions to Save the World: The Nuclear Option," May/June 2007).
To blame recent Iranian and North Korean behavior on U.S. President George W. Bush defies accuracy. Both Tehran's and Pyongyang's nuclear programs accelerated alongside the U.S. engagement of the 1990s.
Too often, policymakers prioritize diplomacy and deals over their substance and content. Now, we're paying the price for that kind of thinking.
1)使った航空機は小型ジェットで、訪問団は5人 Mr. Hill arriving at Pyongyang's airport in a small jet in a steady downpour. His five-member delegation was met by Ri Gun, the North's deputy nuclear negotiator.
2)会談が急遽アレンジされたといっている。しかも北朝鮮側の要請のような。 "We're all waiting for you," Mr. Ri said. Mr. Hill said that the visit was hastily arranged.
Japan needs to do a lot more to develop a global financial hub. The philosophy of regulation will need to change entirely. The domestic markets will have to be energized and shareholders empowered against incumbent managements. Markets will have to be given their head, at the risk of instability, disharmony and the occasional boom or bust.
While I am holding on to the view that the Bank of Korea is not yet done with its rate hike cycle, I believe that imminent rate hikes are not desirable for the economy. Korea’s economy is only at the beginning stage of recovery, and monetary conditions turning restrictive too soon could slow growth, which could lead to rate cuts soon.
We believe that the current interest rate level is already appropriate, and that today’s credit boom is different from what we saw in 2001-02. As Korea’s interest rate level is already near neutral, we think that the next rate hike should come when recovery is more solid, which is likely to be at the end of this year or the beginning of next year.
ヒル国務次官補は関係諸国と「全ての領域に渡る、フェイス・トゥ・フェイスの会談」を 行い、その後でピョンヤンを訪問した、広報官は「現在は6者会合にとって重要な時期で あり、北朝鮮が核廃棄を行なうとした戦略的決定を、我々がテストしているから」 “[I]t's an important moment in the Six-Party Talks because we are testing the proposition that North Korea has made that strategic decision to abandon its nuclear weapons programs and to abandon its nuclear programs,”
Q:今回の訪問が急に決まっていて、しかも秘密裏に進められた理由は何か? A:何かが起こるときに、それを予め予想することは出来ない。何かがおこて初めて解る わけで、我々は、起こるかもしれないとして、それが起こったなら、すぐに貴方方に 知らせる。 Well, with -- as with many things, you never know if something is actually going to occur until it actually happens and it was certainly our anticipation that it would happen without a hitch. It did. And as soon as it happened, we let you guys know.
The combat has only just begun, and media has now figured out this is serious business. During the morning brief (June 20th), Major Robbie Parke mentioned that CNN, TIME, Reuters and some others, are trying to get out here now.
A positive indicator on the 19th and the 20th is that most local people apparently are happy that al Qaeda is being trapped and killed. Civilians are pointing out IEDs and enemy fighters, so that’s not working so well for al Qaeda. Clearly, I cannot do a census, but that says something about the locals.
Indeed, Internet politics is a fairly new concept. Compared with the true democratic politics, it has its shortcomings. For example, false news and rumors can spread quickly throughout the Internet. It can also disturb the normal order with overly emotional opinions. This is not only a harm to good democratic politics, but also affects social development. Thus, it has become very important to determine how to maintain a good environment for Internet politics, promote its healthy development, and maximize its role in helping to promote national democracy.
People should note that developing Internet politics well will enrich the development of socialist democratic politics. However, it does not represent all people yet. Only by comprehensively and objectively mastering Internet politics, and rationally understanding it, can we better promote its development.
Question: What is included in the Yongbyon facility and what specifically was to be shut down and sealed per the agreement?
Answer: In the February 13 Initial Actions agreement, the DPRK agreed to shut down and seal for the purpose of eventual abandonment the Yongbyon nuclear facility, including the reprocessing facility. The IAEA and DPRK should come to agreement on the terms of the IAEA's monitoring and verification activities to be conducted by IAEA personnel. There are a number of nuclear-related installations at the Yongbyon nuclear facility. The agreement required between the IAEA and DPRK will address the installations that will be shut down and sealed during the initial phase and how. We look forward to the IAEA being able rapidly to reach the necessary agreement with the DPRK. 2007/506
Aeon Co., Japan's largest supermarket operator, plans to triple its store network in five years in China, a country from which it predicts it will eventually generate more revenue than from its home nation.
WSJ(米国版、社説):金正日の国連の父親役 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ オランダの政治家出身で国連官僚、UNDPのNo2である Wilhelmus Melkertを 激しく非難した社説。グローバルな政治世界でのアンチアメリカンのアジテーター と呼んでいる。(Now Mr. Melkert has resurfaced as an anti-American agitator in another global sinecure.) このしとは欧州リベラル、アンチアメリカン、アンチブッシュの筆頭のような存在 で、前の国連事務総長時代から有名。
Mr. Melkert has been obstructing the investigation of the UNDP's operations in North Korea since he slow-walked the initial U.S. inquiries last year. It took nearly a year of U.S. questioning before he conceded that the UNDP office in Pyongyang had possession of counterfeit U.S. dollars. The slippery Dutchman also had a hand in the dismissal of a longtime UNDP veteran and onetime chief of operations in North Korea whose contract was not renewed after he reported UNDP violations there. The UNDP staff union has called for him to be reinstated, and the U.N. Ethics Office is reviewing his case.
ttp://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/us-nuclear-envoy-leaves-nkorea/20071422-juz.html "Hill left Pyongyang around 10:00 am (0100 GMT). He is expected to land at the Osan military base before noon," an unidentified diplomat told Yonhap news agency. In Seoul, the US envoy will brief South Korean officials on the outcome of his North Korea visit before heading to Japan later in the day, officials said.
"I think we are going to get the shut down of this reactor. That is not the whole problem, obviously, because we have to go from a shut down of a reactor to disabling it so that it cannot be brought back on line," (ロイター、WaPo)
Our guys are winning. Al Qaeda is about to be strangled and pummeled to death in this town, but the local Iraqi leadership is severely wanting. This was most obviously noted in one area in particular, where there were some slight indicators of a possible humanitarian need. “Crisis” certainly is not the correct word, but there are displaced persons numbering at least in the hundreds. (バクバ戦闘の前線部隊に参加しているマイケル・ヨンから見ると) 我々の部隊は勝利していて、アルカイダは窒息させられ、散々に打ちのめされてこの街 で死に直面している。ローカルのイラクの指導者はそれを歓迎している。この傾向は明 らかであって、地域の人たちがそれを欲していた。アルカイダの支配は数百人の人たち が逃げ出すような事態になっていた。
(前線にいるヨンは、通信手段の確保が困難だし、食事や寝る場所の確保も難しいと書 いている。彼は兵士と共にテントに寝ているらしい。レポーターが前線に来ていないの で情報が充分つたわらないと書いた後で) Otherwise, the battle is going very well. A big fight seems to be brewing. As of about noon in Baqubah on the 22nd, there seems to be a lull in the fighting. A calm. This is about to get wet. At the going rate, al Qaeda in Baqubah will soon have two choices: Surrender, or die. そういう問題を除けば、戦闘は大変うまくいっていて、22日の昼のバクバの状況では、 戦闘が一時休止にある。この調子でゆけばバクバのアルカイダはまもなく選択を迫られ るだろう。降伏するか、死を選ぶか。
<最近、値上げを発表したNYTの経営状況についての評論> ttp://www.americanthinker.com/2007/06/the_incredible_shrinking_new_y.html The Incredible Shrinking New York Times By Thomas Lifson June 22, 2007 -------------------------------------------------------------------- このメディアはアンチNYTなので、バイアスはあると思うけれども、それを差し引 いても、指摘しているNYTの経営上の問題は容易く無いように思える・・・
At the Incredible Shrinking New York Times, everything is shrinking except the arrogance of the publisher and liberal editorial staff. Unfortunately, that is the one area of the company where less truly would be more.
MSNBC.com's Bill Dedman used online search engines to track the federal campaign contributions of journalists between 2004 and the start of the current presidential campaign. He found 144 such donations - 125 of them to Democrats and just 17 to Republicans (two gave to both). That's a ratio of 71/2-to-1 in favor of the Democrats.
Bill Dedmanが連邦政府の政治献金データを、サーチエンジンで調べたところ、2004年 から現在までの間に、ジャーナリズム関係者144人の献金があり、民主党関連125人に 対して共和党関連17人、両党に献金が2人であった。
China's Brilliance BS6 is a recent entry into the European market, positioned as a premium-style import sedan at a budget price. Well, after seeing the videos of the car undergoing crash testing using Euro NCAP guidelines at the ADAC (Germany's AAA, essentially) test center, one thing's certain: buyers get what they pay for. 中国のブリリアンスBS6セダンが欧州市場に現れて安価に売られている。欧州のNCAP 基準のクラッシュテストがドイツで行なわれたのだが、その結果からみると、安いもの には理由があるという事で、
The BS6, as currently constructed, appears to a complete piece of crap. BS6は、現状の製造方法では、クズと言うべきだ。
The horrifying 40 mph offset frontal crash test video shows damage that can be described as catastrophic at best. The A-pillar collapses and folds up like a cheap suitcase, forcing the driver's door to pop largely out of its frame(ry 時速40マイルのフロントクラッシュでは、ビデオで見れば解るように、破滅的というべき 状況である。Aピラーが崩壊し安いスーツケースのように開いていてドライバーのドアが フレームから外れて(ry
<グローバリゼーションとインフレについて、モルガンスタンレー経済フォーラム> ttp://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/index.html#anchor5082 Globalization and Inflation: Is There A Link? [Part 1] June 22, 2007 By Eric Chaney | London Globalization and Inflation: Is There A Link? [Part 2] June 22, 2007 By Eric Chaney | London --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ここでやっている議論は、中国やインドなどのグローバル経済への参加が、世界経済 に対してデフレーショナリーなのかインフレーショナリーなのか、と言うもの。昨年 までは中国などの安価な製造業は、デフレーショナルな影響を与えて、世界のインフ レを抑えるというものが主流であったけれど、最近では原材料やエネルギーの商品相 場に与えるインフレ圧力が無視できない、という議論が。この評論では:
I will conclude with three statements 三つの要点でまとめてみると First, I believe that the combined effect of the great doubling, the productivity enhancer and the commodity price booster has been, on balance, deflationary until recently. In short, the global output gap that appeared in the mid-1990s was very large. 第一に安価な賃金の中国の製造業の台頭と商品相場の高騰は、最近までは、全体として デフレーショナルな影響を与えた。90年代半ばに現れたグローバルな需給ギャップは大 きなものであった。
Second, recent price developments, including in China, show that this disinflation effect is weakening. 第二に最近の価格変動によって、中国を含めて、インフレ抑止効果は弱くなっている。
The DPJ response The LDP’s troubles may be little consolation to the DPJ, however. Indeed, a victory could be more damaging than a defeat, because different parts of the party will see their bargaining positions changed. The left wing will likely see the defeat as a rejection by the voters of the LDP and feel emboldened. They are likely to press their agenda harder, but such action will only alienate the right-wing inside the party. However, doing so would be dangerous to the survival of the DPJ.
ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/87036.htm Remarks to the Press About Talks With North Korean Officials Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs Pyongyang, North Korea June 22, 2007 国務省ファイル:ヒル国務次官補、会見記録、ピョンヤンにて
NYSEが午後になって、下げ足をきつくしている。100ポイント以上の下げで、主な理由は 先のベア・スターンズのフェッジファンド失敗に伴うファンドの債券の清算売りに伴う 恐怖とか。 WSJのマーケット・ビート・ブログ ttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/ The selling has certainly kicked into another gear in the afternoon, with some citing concerns over what may/may not be said during the Bear Stearns conference call to discuss its two distressed hedge funds, as the markets face the sale of some $850 million in assets
市場関係者は、今日の売りが、ボリュームを伴っていることに憂慮している。単なる 調製というには売りの量が多い。 That’s not the case today as the major indexes are all down 1%. “I don’t like to see volume building like this at low levels,” says Jess Thompson, market strategist at Axis Analytics, in an email.
サマーラリーの期待の中で金曜日の売りは不吉と言う Jeff Cooper, writing in Minyanville.com, also voices concern, saying the decline during a summer bull market, on a Friday, marks a change in condition.
------------------------------------------- CME225=18045 CBOE VIX=15.82 Up 1.60 (11.26%) ------------------------------------------- The troubles at two Bear Stearns hedge funds that invested in the subprime mortgage sector are at the center of the storm. The firm's shares fell 1.4% as it said it plans to take on $3.2 billion in loans made to one of its money-losing funds.
Merrill Lynch, which lost 2.9%, already has seized $850 million of securities that Bear used as collateral. Also, Barclays fell 1.6% on news it has "some exposure" to such funds, but it said any losses taken won't be material.
ttp://money.cnn.com/2007/06/22/markets/markets_0405/index.htm?section=money_markets Stock trading has been volatile in recent weeks due to ongoing worries about whether rising bond yields and mortgage rates would hurt the economy, just as growth seemed to be picking up from a weak first quarter. Those worries returned Friday. 最近の数週間、株式市場では国際のイールド上昇や、モーゲージ・レート上昇が経済に 与える影響を心配して不安定な動きが続いている。Q1の落ち込みから成長速度が回復し そうだとの期待にもかかわらず、金曜日には憂慮する向きが復活した。
In addition, rumors about more hedge fund problems were hurting the market, according to Todd Clark, director of stock trading at Nollenberger Capital Partners in San Francisco. それに加えてヘッジファンドの失敗に関わる噂が市場に影響している。サンフランシス コのノーレンバーガー・キャピタルの株式トレーディング部長 Todd Clarkが述べている。
"People think there might be another hedge fund that might be in trouble," said Clark. 「人々は、新たなヘッジファンドの失敗があるかもしれないと心配している」 (CNNマネー、June 22 2007: 4:06 PM EDT)
He said this included fighters from the 1920 Revolution Brigade, a large Sunni Arab insurgent group that has fallen out with al Qaeda over its indiscriminate killing of civilians.
Q:日本の立場についてだが、北朝鮮とのステップを進めることは日本の望むものより 前のめりになっているかもしれない。日本は完全に協調しているのか? Are you confident that Japan remains fully on board? Some of these steps are more forward-leaning than Tokyo has seemed to like in the past, given they have their reservations on the abductees and things like that.
A:日本の拉致問題についての関心は理解している。拉致問題の改善の為に、我々は出 来る限り日本政府の支援を行なう。 Well, we -- yeah, we believe that we're all on the same page and we are quite sensitive to the Japanese concerns about abductees. And this is an issue that we are going to continue to raise and I know the Japanese Government is going to continue to raise within the six-party talks. We're going to emphasize all -- we have emphasized and will continue to emphasize it is important to resolve these issues between North Korea and Japan. Now there is a working group that has been set up between North Korea and Japan specifically to address this as well as any other issues they may have. I know the Japanese delegation, after that first meeting, was somewhat frustrated. They stated so in the press. So we want to, in every way we possibly can, support the Japanese Government in working with North Korea to resolve this issue. It's a painful issue for the Japanese people. It really strikes a nerve with the Japanese people and it's important to resolve it.
ttp://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/pb_51_tellis_final.pdf Punching the U.S. Military’s “Soft Ribs”: China’s Antisatellite Weapon Test in Strategic Perspective June 2007 By Ashley J. Tellis Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace By Ashley J. Tellis
カーネギー平和財団:中国の衛星破壊、戦略的見地からの分析
China has taken aim at its Achilles heel:its space-based capabilities and their related ground installations. Thus, China will continue to invest in space-denial technology rather than be a party to any space-control agreement that eliminates its best chance of asymmetrically defeating U.S. military power. With its dominance of space now at risk, the United States must run and win this offense/defense space race if it is to uphold its security obligations and deter increased Chinese counterspace efforts.
バクバの戦闘について General Odierno visited the city and stated most of al Qaeda's senior leadership has fled, while lower level-leaders are believed to be trapped. “We believe 80 percent of the upper level [al-Qaida] leaders fled, but we’ll find them.” said General Odierno. “Eighty percent of the lower level leaders are still here.” ・・・・ The U.S. military commanders continue to state the operations will be ongoing through the end of the summer. The escape of Al Qaeda leaders and operatives from Baqubah and the southern belts will no doubt be touted as a failure in the plan, but this view demonstrates a lack of understanding of the fundamentals of warfare and the purpose of the operation. ・・・・ Second, the purpose of the Baghdad Security Plan and Operation Phantom Thunder is to deny al Qaeda Baghdad and the Belts, and to kill as many operatives and leaders as possible in the process. When al Qaeda attempts to regroup, it will be in the hinterlands, and in some cases, in regions less hospitable to its actions.
General Odierno visited the city and stated most of al Qaeda's senior leadership has fled, while lower level-leaders are believed to be trapped. “We believe 80 percent of the upper level [al-Qaida] leaders fled, but we’ll find them.” said General Odierno. “Eighty percent of the lower level leaders are still here.”
Iraq War: You've no doubt heard of Paris Hilton, and of Rosie O'Donnell as well. We're pretty sure you know what Barry Bonds is up to. But have you ever heard of Arrowhead Ripper? The likely answer is no.
ttp://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=267405225211303 But if that's the case, it's not your fault. Arrowhead Ripper isn't an athlete, a TV star or a person famous for being famous. It's the code name for a massive U.S.-led assault under way in Iraq's Diyala province ― an undertaking that has garnered token media coverage since it began Tuesday.
Surprisingly, only Reuters seemed to get what was going on. Its headline said: "U.S. troops set trap for militants near Baghdad."(後略)
Al-Hayat said that officials in the Sadr Current have criticized the Iranian role in southern Iraq, in what may be another attempt by Muqtada to distance his Current from the Islamic Republic. アルハヤトに拠ればサドル派の幹部がイラク南部へのイランの干渉を非難した。サドル派 ガ、イランから距離を置く政策をとり始めたと見られる。
In the past weeks, Muqtada al-Sadr has been attempting to gather Sunni support for his movement, and to extend political alliances with Sunni parties. In order to deflect a reputation he had acquired as “Iran’s man” in Iraq, al-Sadr has made a point of critiquing Iranian intervention in the country and asserting his commitment to notions of Iraqi sovereignty. 先週、サドル師はスンニ派の支持を求め、スンニ派政党との政治提携を模索する動きを示 している。サドル師はイランの傀儡と見なされてきたので、それに対抗すべくサドル派が イランのイラクへの干渉を非難し、彼の立場をイラク愛国者であると位置づける狙いがあ る。
>>358 この興味深い動きについてITMがサドル師の動向についての解説を書いている↓ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://pajamasmedia.com/2007/06/sadr_bites_the_hand_that_feeds.php Sadr Bites the Hand That Feeds Him PJM LA June 23, 2007 2:00 AM by Mohammed Fadhil, PJM Baghdad Editor
Here appear the signs of a rift that will be difficult for Shia leaders to work around, because winning over a man like Sadr with compromises doesn’t seem possible at this stage. His frustration and ambitions will not leave much room for negotiation. Sadr believes he’s the strongman now, the one who deserves to rule Iraq.
Sadr’s overestimation of his own power and popularity is likely to make the situation more complicated. As for Iran, well, Iran doesn’t care much about particular names and faces as long as they’re a part of the chaos.
Like Hill, Song did not want to get into just what those weapons and programs were - the dirty words, "highly enriched uranium", as if by common agreement, remained unspoken.
Tom Lantos, D-Calif., chairman of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, has signed the house resolution as joint proposers so that Japan should apologize for its forced sex slavery of Korean and other Asian women during World War II. 下院外交委員会のトム・ラントス議員が従軍慰安婦決議案にサインした
The U.S. House is scheduled to file the resolution calling on Japan to appologize for its coerced sex slavery of Asian young girls during World War II. The resolution is expected to transferred to the plenary session in mid-July, observers said. 決議案は7月半ばに議会に上程されるみとおし ------------------------------------------------------------------------- コリアタイムズ:韓国系・中国系団体、慰安婦問題の次は「反靖国神社キャンペーン」 を全米で実施へ [06/23] ttp://www.koreatimes.com/article/articleview.asp?id=389619
Heavy lobbying previously prevented the bill from reaching a floor vote. "Republicans were more receptive to Japanese influence," Honda said. "Japanese leadership had a lot of influence. They spent a lot of money." 決議案をめぐってロビー活動が繰り広げられたという。ホンダ議員は「共和党は日本の 影響に受容的だ。日本の指導部は大きな影響力があり、彼等は大金を使っている」
>>367 iPhoneの製造は台湾のHon Hai ttp://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/afx/2006/11/14/afx3175021.html Taiwan's Hon Hai wins Apple orders for mobile handsets, notebook PCs - report 11.14.2006, 07:10 PM TAIPEI (XFN-ASIA) - Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd (2317.TW) has secured contracts from Apple Computer for 12 mln mobile handsets that also function as music players, the Commercial Times quoted industry sources as saying
The future of both funds remains in some doubt. It isn't clear yet how other banks will respond to this latest financing offer. Banks are still seeking to sell off collateral from the more indebted fund. Meanwhile, the credit line proposed by Bear could enable the less-leveraged fund to survive. 第二の、よりレバレッジの高いリスクの大きいほうのファンドについて、融資を行なっ た銀行などが依然として担保を売りたがっていると書いている。WSJの記事の最後の センテンスは;
Mr. Spector worked the phones Thursday afternoon, reaching out to various CEOs and senior Wall Street executives, according to a person familiar with the matter. The upshot: save the less leveraged fund that had better-quality assets and let the other fund collapse. 是↑は関係者の伝聞になっているので、確定情報ではないけれど、この文章から言えば $6Bのローンを抱えていた第二のファンドを解体清算する可能性があることになる。 もしそうなれば、担保(CDO)が売り出されて、相場に影響が出ることも(?)
The bundling of different debts, along with the fact that the CDOs are a few steps removed from the debts they include, give rise to another risk. It's tough to get an accurate price for CDOs, which don't trade in active markets. When markets sour, the lack of available prices can make it even more difficult to value a holding, or to get out of it without taking a big haircut. ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB118255822369045404.html?mod=home_whats_news_us Center of a Storm: How CDOs Work (WSJ、6、23)
金曜日にヒル国務次官補は、1-2週間で核施設の封鎖に進むだろうと述べたが、たとえ その通りヨンビョンの核施設が封鎖されても、北朝鮮が真剣に核廃棄にむかっていると 確認できるとはいえない。 (・・even with a Yongbyon shutdown, will not have reached the point where North Korea's seriousness about denuclearization could be confirmed.)
Taiwan’s main opposition party has watered down its commitment towards unification with China in a cautious attempt to adjust to the island’s political realities ahead of the presidential elections early next year. 台湾国民党は、その政策綱領のひとつである中国との祖国統一を取り下げる。台湾の 政治的リアリティに配慮して来年はじめの大統領選挙に備える為である。
Ma Ying-jeou, the KMT presidential candidate, has said he hopes to sign a peace agreement with China if he is elected. But while most Taiwanese hope for more harmonious relations with their hostile neighbour, a majority view themselves as Taiwanese rather than Chinese and feel strongly about their de facto independence. 国民党の、馬・大統領候補は、大統領になれば中国との平和条約を結びたいと述べた。 台湾国民の殆どが中国との調和のある関係を望む一方で、彼等は自分たちを台湾人とと らえ、中国人とは感じていない。そして国民の多くは事実上の台湾の独立を強く意識し ている。
Changes to the KMT’s charter approved on Sunday aim to free the party from this burden. It now pledges that the party’s efforts will “centre on Taiwan and on the people’s welfare”. 国民党の政策綱領の変更は日曜日に承認され、国民党は今や「台湾の国民の繁栄を中心」 にしたものとなる。
Delegates also agreed to drop a reference to unification. Originally, the charter embraced mainland residents as “spiritual members” who “oppose communism and are willing to work together towards national unification”. This definition was changed to non-citizens who agree with the party’s ideology and strive for the peaceful development of the nation. 国民党の代議員は祖国統一を綱領から除外することで合意した。国民党の伝統的な綱領は 中国大陸の国民は「精神的なメンバー」で「共産党に反対し祖国統一に共に働く」と定義 していた。この部分は、台湾国民ではない、国の平和的発展に努力し国民党のイデオロギ ーを指示する人、と変更された。
The changes appeared to receive grassroots backing. One delegate, Chao Chun-shan, said: “I want to tell China: Respect our flag, our national anthem and our national moniker. Only then will there be a chance for dialogue on an equal basis.”国民党の綱領変更は支持者層の賛同を得ているようである。Chao Chun-shan代議員は「私 は中国に言いたい。我等の国旗、国歌、そして国の名称を尊重せよ。そういう事が出来て 始めて平等な対話の可能性が生まれる」
The ripples from the bond market sell-off have spread into credit markets and further volatility seems certain. Marc Ostwald, fixed income strategist at Insinger de Beaufort, points out that 10-year swap spreads, key instruments that allow institutions to manage their exposure to fluctuations in interest rates, have risen to the highest levels since mid-2003.
Mr Ostwald says this is a major shift that indicates that the underpricing of risk in credit markets is being slowly but clearly adjusted and this could put further pressure on the complex structures of the credit derivatives market. The question that then arises is, if the abundance of credit that has fuelled the leveraged buy-out market is repriced on less economically attractive terms, this will have a knock-on impact on equities as so many share prices, particularly in the UK, have been boosted by bid speculation.
ttp://www.insidebayarea.com/business/ci_6218587 Analysts warn China vulnerable to a Japan-style debt meltdown By Elaine KurtenbachSHANGHAI, China, Associated Press Article Last Updated: 06/24/2007 02:43:41 AM PDT
"Right now, we're in a sweet spot. Everything is as good as it can get," says Michael Pettis, a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management and author of a book on financial crises in emerging economies. But he adds, "Nobody should assume it's going to stay like this. No country in history went through such a rapid period of growth without periodic crises." ・・・ ・・・ Today's go-go China is something of an economic Never-Never Land. Reliable data on credit risk and bankruptcies are virtually nonexistent, making it hard to know when a crisis might strike.
However, a Chinese media report posted on leading local news websites quoted Sinopec’s parent company China Petrochemical as saying that Mr Chen had stepped down because of unspecified “serious breaches of discipline”. ----------------------------------------------------------- #上海の社保基金事件に関連したトップ交代とは、政治色の強そうな臭いが・・
"The crisis will continue to loom large," said T.J. Marta, fixed-income strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York. While the situation seems to be under control for now, "that could turn on a dime." NYCのRBCキャピタル・マーケットの債券ストラテジスト、T.J. Martaは「危機は 引き続き大きく迫っている」という。ベア・スターンズの行動で状況は管理されている が「それは、容易に変化し得る」
Michael Cheah, portfolio manager at AIG SunAmerica Asset Management in Jersey City, N.J., said the Bear funds were most probably not alone in the bets they made on the subprime-mortgage market. "A lot of people have got that trade on," he said. "I would be shocked if they were the only one...and the story ends here. It's not over." ニュージャージーのAIGサン・アメリカ・アセット・マネジメントのポートフォリオ マネージャー、Michael Cheahはベア・スターンズのファンドはサブプライム市場に賭け ていた唯一のファンドというわけでは無いだろうという。「多くの人がそういう取引を していた」という「彼らが唯一の存在なら驚きだ。危機は終わったわけではなく継続し ている」
A catalyst for another round of jitters, which Friday sent Treasury prices higher as investors sought a safe harbor, could be mortgage-loan performance reports due today that investors will parse for signs that the situation among borrowers with shaky credit has worsened. 月曜日にはモーゲージ・ローン・パフォーマンス報告が出るので、投資家はその内容に 注目するだろう。信用状況の良くない借りてのローン支払い状況がどうなのかをチェッ クするだろう。
Late Friday the riskiest, triple-B-minus, tranche of the benchmark derivative index based on subprime mortgages hit a new low of 58 cents on the dollar, according to Alex Pritchartt, a trader at UBS. The index, designed to allow investors to take a broad position on the housing market's most vulnerable segment, has been closely watched by market participants. 金曜日には、サブプライムモーゲージを基にした、信用格付けの低いBBB−のデリバ ティブ・インデックスはドルあたり58セントと新たな安値をつけている。この指標は 住宅市場の最も傷つきやすいセグメントの広義のポジションを知る為に市場関係者に 注目されている。(後略)
While she explored the Inca city of Machu Picchu high in Peru's Andes, Diaz wore over her shoulder an olive green messenger bag emblazoned with a red star and the words 'Serve the People' printed in Chinese on the flap, perhaps Chinese Communist leader Mao's most famous political slogan. While the bags are marketed as trendy fashion accessories in some world capitals, the phrase has particular resonance in Peru. The Maoist Shining Path insurgency took Peru to the edge of chaos in the 1980s and early 1990s with a campaign of massacres, assassinations and bombings.Nearly 70,000 people were killed during the insurgency. 1980年代から90年代にかけて、ペルーでは毛沢東派の共産党革命家達が7万人以上の人を殺し、国に 混乱をもたらした。その毛沢東を称えるカバンを持ち歩く女優に対してペルーで批判が。
A prominent Peruvian human rights activist said the star of There's Something About Mary should have been a little more aware of local sensitivities when picking her accessories. "It alludes to a concept that did so much damage to Peru, that brought about so many victims," said Pablo Rojas about the bag's slogan."I don't think she should have used that bag where the followers of that ideology" did so much damage.
But Japan needs activist shareholders more than they need Japan. This is because the one thing activists can do for Japan that others are not doing is to help unlock the intrinsic value of inefficiently managed companies, thereby improving their competitiveness and boosting returns for all shareholders. The rapid greying of Japanese society poses an urgent need to put the nation’s wealth to better use in order to maintain, if not improve, current living standards. 日本企業の経営の非効率性を改善する為に、そしてその企業の競争力を高め、株主への リターンを高める為に、(ヘッジファンドやプライベート・エクイティ・ファンドや年金 基金等の企業への効率改善の要求が)意味のある活動の出来る唯一のものは株主側である のだから、株主が日本企業を必要とする以上に、日本企業が株主側の活動を必要とする。 急速に高齢化する日本の社会は日本の富がより効果的に使われることを必要としていて、 それによって生活の質を維持し、改善し、高めることが出来るのだ。
According to a government survey, 60 per cent of elderly households have no other income apart from their pension payments. Yet the returns of Japanese pension funds have been disgraceful. The Government Pension Investment Fund, the world’s largest pension fund which manages Y148,000bn ($1,192bn) in assets, had a return of just 3.63 per cent in the nine months to last December. This compares with the 11.8 per cent Calpers, the California public employee pension fund, returned last year. 政府の統計のよれば60%の高齢者世帯は年金以外の収入を持たない。しかし日本の年金は 世界最大のファンドで$1192Bの資産を管理するが、リターンは3.63%(昨年12月までの 9ヶ月の値)に過ぎず、カリァルフォルニア公共施設雇用者の年金Calpersの11.8%に比べ て大変低い。
The problem, as many activists have pointed out, is balance sheet inefficiency. Hundreds of Japanese companies are sitting on mountains of cash, which are not generating returns or being put to efficient use. Company managements argue that these reserves are needed to invest in the future or set aside for unforeseen funding needs. But in many cases such reserves have not been used for years, and managers cannot identify what they might use those funds for. この原因は日本企業のバランスシートの非効率性にある。数百もの日本の企業は巨額の キャッシュを保有しながら効率的に使われず、リターンを生んでいない。経営者等は、 それらのキャッシュは将来の投資の為の貯蓄だと言うのだが、多くのケースでそれらの 貯蓄は何年も使われず、経営者はそれをどう使うべきか指摘できない。
What the critics of activists often forget is that the reforms and higher dividends they are seeking would benefit all shareholders not only by providing them with more income but also by raising the value of the companies they invest in and releasing capital to be reallocated where it is needed. 株主側が高い配当を要求する事への批判があるのだが、それらの批判の忘れていることは 株主の求める経営改善と高い配当は全ての株主の利益になるもので、株主の得る配当利益 を多くするのみならず彼らの投資している会社の価値を高めることである。それは有効に 使われていない資産を解除し、必要な場所に割り当てさせるのである。
In a ground-breaking move, the Pension Fund Association, which has Y13,500bn under management, recently joined the ranks of activists with a revolutionary declaration that it will vote against any management that fails to achieve a minimum 8 per cent return on equity for three consecutive years. But if corporate Japan continues to pursue inefficient strategies and fails to deliver on its potential, the activists will be gone as quickly as they came, leaving the Japanese public to deal with the problem of their diminishing wealth. 年金ファンド協会は最近、株主としての要求の声を上げるようになっている。彼等は 3年間に渡ってROEの最低値である8%を達成できない経営者を信任拒否するという 革命的な宣言に賛成している。日本企業が継続して非効率な経営を続け、企業の可能 性を達成できないなら株主の運動が収まって、日本の国民が富の喪失を抱えたまま残 される。
The triumph of hope over experience looms large over the Japanese stock market. The market is still less than half its 1989 peak and during the past 12 months has lagged behind the US, Europe, the UK and Hong Kong. Undeterred, foreigners keep lapping up Japanese shares, accumulating a record 28 per cent slice of the market by the end of March 2007. That pits foreigners – along with the Japanese government – against other investors, from domestic retail to banks, who saw their share of the market shrink. (中略) The record of activism so far has likewise been poor, although dividends and takeover premiums are slowly rising. The payout ratio has risen from 19 per cent at the start of 2005 to almost 27 per cent this year, according to Goldman Sachs, while takeover premiums have almost trebled to 24 per cent, based on the average share prices two months before a bid. Given the small amount of takeover activity, however, and comparable dividends in the region, that may not be enough to reward foreigners for bucking the trend. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- #様々な議論の有り得るテーマであると思うけれど、日本が今やG7のトップクラスの #国として行動すべきと見なされているわけなので、そちらに進むべき時に来ているよ #うな・・世界に相手にされないような国では、やはり困るわけなので;
<今日のアジア市場のスナップショット> ttp://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia All Ordinaries 6,358.60 2:11AM ET Down 50.70 (0.79%)↓豪州 Shanghai Composite 3,941.08 2:35AM ET Down 150.36 (3.68%)↓上海 Hang Seng 21,885.00 2:48AM ET Down 114.91 (0.52%)↓香港 BSE 30 14,453.06 3:48AM ET Down 14.30 (0.10%)↓印度 Jakarta Composite 2,142.01 4:15AM ET Down 10.31 (0.48%)↓インドネシア KLSE Composite 1,391.57 Jun 22Up 3.61 (0.26%) Nikkei 225 18,087.48 2:00AM ET Down 101.15 (0.56%)↓東京 NZSE 50 4,270.91 1:35AM ET Down 14.23 (0.33%)↓ニュージーランド Straits Times 3,584.83 3:48AM ET Down 30.55 (0.85%)↓シンガポール Seoul Composite 1,757.73 2:02AM ET Down 13.25 (0.75%)↓韓国 Taiwan Weighted 8,939.19 1:46AM ET Up 126.28 (1.43%)↑台湾
ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/87173.htm Remarks to the Media Prior to Departure From Japan Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Narita International Airport Tokyo, Japan June 23, 2007 国務省ファイル:ヒル国務次官補、東京での記者会見記録、6,23 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Press Availability With Japanese Director General Kenichiro Sasae Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Ministry of Foreign Affairs Tokyo, Japan June 23, 2007 国務省ファイル:佐々江局長とヒル国務次官補の記者会見記録、東京、6、23 (ただし、記録はヒル国務次官補の部分のみ) ------------------------------------------------------------------ Comments to Reporters Upon Arrival to Japan Christopher R. Hill, Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Haneda Airport Tokyo, Japan June 23, 2007 国務省ファイル:ヒル国務次官補、羽田空港にて記者団との会話記録、6、23
販売在庫は5月期末に+5%、30年住宅ローン金利は6.26%(4月は6.18%) Regionally, existing-home sales were mixed. Sales rose 0.7% in the Midwest and 5.8% in the Northeast. Demand fell 0.8% in the West and 3.4% in the South.
Most Iraqis smoke and this particular prohibition appeared to have earned the ire of many locals. After an American unit cleared an apartment complex on the 23rd, LTC Smiley, the battalion commander, reported that residents didn’t ask for food and water, but cigarettes. In other parts of Baqubah, people have been celebrating the routing of AQI by lighting up and smoking cigarettes. 殆どのイラク人は喫煙するので、アルカイダの禁煙の強制はローカル住民に嫌われてい た。アメリカ軍がアパート群を開放した時に、住民は食料や水を求めなかったが煙草を 求めた。バクバの街中では煙草に火をつけて、人々がアルカイダの追放を祝っている。
アルカイダ50-100人殺戮、60人拘束、アメリカ兵1人死亡、21人負傷;ローカル住民の 通報でアルカイダの幹部の拘束や捕虜収容施設を発見、アメリカ兵の行動中に住民が IED(仕掛け爆弾)の存在を教えて危険を避けるように叫ぶようなことが多くあった と書いている; Doubtless many American lives have been saved by locals just saying “stop,” and pointing to bombs.
<WSJのブログ、マーケットビートから> ttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/ June 25, 2007, 1:53 pm:Another Great Depression? Posted by MarketBeat Staff James Willhite reports on a new study that should catch the interest of the Eeyores of the world:
MKBEAT:BIS報告書、アメリカは1930年代と同じ大恐慌の誤りに向かうか?
Market bears found a voice in the Bank for International Settlements’ annual report, in which some economists worry aloud that the U.S. risks repeating the mistakes that led to the Great Depression of the 1930s.
WSJ.com’s new Real Time Economics blog points out the study is influenced by the “Austrian school,” which blamed the Great Depression on a misallocation of credit and overinvestment during the 1920s. The report reminds us that nobody had anticipated that particular financial catastrophe and that analysts had similarly missed the warning signs of Japan’s crisis in the early 1990s and the broad Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. In all three cases, the report says, an eye on the leading inflation gauge was not enough to forestall disaster. BIS年次報告書のなかで一部のエコノミストがアメリカ経済が1930年代の大恐慌にむか うような誤りを犯しているという。この主張は、オーストリーの経済学派のもので大恐慌 は20年代のクレディット割り当ての失敗と過剰投資の為であるという。当時は誰もそうし た可能性を指摘せず、それは90年代に日本のケース、アジアの金融危機についても同じで あるという。三つのケースともインフレの可能性に注目するばかりで、余りにも容易にク レジットが供与され、リスクの多いビジネスに過剰投資されたとしている。特に価値判断 の難しい、あるいは取引の難しい、エキゾチックな証券などに投資が向かっているという。 一種のクレジット・バブルがイージーマネーの環境で出現するという。
歴史家は一般的に、南京で15万人の民間人が虐殺されたとしており数万人の女性が 強姦などの被害にあったとされ、「レイプオブ・南京」として知られる。 Historians generally agree the Japanese army slaughtered at least 150,000 civilians and raped tens of thousands of women in the rampage in Nanjing in 1937 that became known as "The Rape of Nanking," using the name by which the city was known in the West at that time.
しかし、中にはこうした動きに批判的な意見もあって、メリルリンチの株式リサーチ 部門のトップであるRhee Nam-uhは: “Personally, I am pessimistic about the success of this act,” said Rhee Nam-uh, head of equity research at Merrill Lynch in Seoul. “The city needs the legal framework, regulatory support, transparency, infrastructure, a supply of quality people and a market friendly environment.” (「個人的にはこの法案が成功するか疑問で、ソウルが金融センターとして成功するた めには、法的フレームワーク、規制機関のサポート、透明性、インフラ、クオリティ の高い人材の供給、マーケット・フレンドリーな環境が必要だ」)
マーケットの崩れた原因は、ベアスターンズが第二のヘッジファンドの救済を迫られる かも知れないというメリルリンチの報告などから悲観的な雰囲気の台頭したことだと言う。 Again, Bear Stearns was in the spotlight. BusinessWeek reported that the SEC recently opened an inquiry into the near-collapse of one of Bear’s two troubled hedge funds. There is also speculation from a Merrill Lynch analyst and others that the Bear fund may require a cash injection to halt more margin calls
ttp://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2007/87332.htm Briefing on His Recent Travel to the Region and the Six-Party Talks Christopher R. Hill , Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs ; Head of the U.S. Delegation to the Six-Party Talks Washington, DC June 25, 2007
国務省ファイル:ヒル国務次官補、記者会見記録、6月25日、ワシントン
何故今の時期の訪朝なのかについて ・・・ think it was very important to make sure that these next two weeks are teed up, and I would say beyond the two weeks. But to make sure that we're clear on the elements for what will be the --
I think an important year, that is, disabling the facilities, getting clarity on the HEU and having a full and concise statement, nuclear declaration, which by the way, has to include precisely how much fissile material they have, so there's a lot there. So we're -- I think really on the edge of all this and I think the judgment was that this was the right time to go. This was the right time to accept the invitation to go.
日本との協調について I mean, the first call I made after coming out of North Korea when I got to Osan was to Ken Sasae to tell him, you know, how the meeting went -- my Japanese counterpart. And so -- and we had good talks -- I lose track -- I think it was Saturday morning with the Japanese. So I think we need to stay in very close contact with them. You know, I made this clear to the North Koreans that Japan is a very important relationship to us and -- the world's second-largest economy -- and I would think it should be a very important relationship to the North Koreans. And so I hope I don't need to give them pep talks on the necessity of moving along and with the Japan relationship and they're going to have to deal with some of the issues that the Japanese are concerned about.
ウラン濃縮について Well, when the HEU program has come up, the North Koreans have said that they understand this is an important issue that needs to be resolved to mutual satisfaction, whatever that means. That's different from previous positions, which are -- we don't know what you're talking about and if you have some evidence, give it to us and we'll look into it.
ttp://www.globalaffairs.org/forum/showthread.php?t=54217 And Now It's China-Made Tires(今度は中国製のタイヤだぜ) It's going to get a lot worse before we even think about it getting any better. 事態がどんどん悪くなるように見えるが。 ------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1856237/posts Importer Told to Recall Chinese Tires(More Chicom Junk!)(また中国製のジャンクだ) breitbart.com ^ | Jun 25 , 2007 | JEFFREY GOLD Posted on 06/25/2007 6:10:13 PM PDT by kellynla If the Chicoms can't poison us all, they're gonna try to kill us on our roads & highways. How do you say "embargo" in Chinese.(中国語で輸入禁止は、どういうのかね) ------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.autoblog.com/2007/06/25/as-if-poisoned-pet-food-wasnt-enough-chinese-tires-now-failing/ As if poisoned pet food wasn't enough, Chinese tires failing now 毒入りペットフードだけですまずに、今度は中国製の、破裂するタイア
Hangzhou has been manufacturing tires sold by FTS and other distributors that left out an extra layer of rubber between the steel belts, causing them to overheat and have tread separation similar to the Firestone tires that failed on Ford Explorers several years ago.
The tires may need to be recalled and FTS doesn't have the financial resources to deal with something like that, so it's suing the Chinese company to cover the expenses since they built the tires in a way that differed from what was specified. The Wall Street Journal's report on the matter contains additional details, and is well worth a read.
Though the family has overcome some of its previous doubts about selling the company, the situation remains fluid, and some members continue to privately express resistance to a deal. The family's main concern has been protecting the editorial integrity of the Journal and other Dow Jones properties.
イラクでのアメリカ兵の死亡数などが議論されるケースで、比較対照として、 WWIIのアメリカ軍の日本侵略計画が持ち出されることが。 (インスタプンディットが紹介しているもの) ttp://instapundit.com/archives2/006620.php ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wikiには、日本がポツダム宣言を受け入れる直前に作られていた、日本侵略作戦 の詳しい記述があって: ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Downfall Operation Downfall Operation Downfall was the overall Allied plan for the invasion of Japan at the end of World War II. The operation was cancelled when Japan surrendered following the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and the Soviet Union's declaration of war against Japan. ダウンフォール作戦は日本上陸計画としてWWII末期に作られた
(略) Estimated casualties for Downfall この作戦で想定されたアメリカ軍側の被害
In a study done by the Joint Chiefs of Staff in April, the figures of 7.45 casualties/1,000 man-days and 1.78 fatalities/1,000 man-days were developed. This implied that a 90-day Olympic campaign would cost 456,000 casualties, including 109,000 dead or missing. If Coronet took another 90 days, the combined cost would be 1,200,000 casualties, with 267,000 fatalities.[33] 統合参謀本部の4月の推定では1000日兵あたり7.45の被害、1.78の死亡として90日間 の作戦で45.6万人被害があり、10.9万人の死亡。さらに90日続けば合計120万人の被 害26.7万人の死亡。
A study done for Secretary of War Henry Stimson's staff by William Shockley estimated that conquering Japan would cost 1.7 to 4 million American casualties, including 400,000 to 800,000 fatalities, and five to ten million Japanese fatalities. The key assumption was large-scale participation by civilians in the defense of Japan.[1] スチムソンのスタッフの推定で、アメリカ側の被害は170-400万人、死亡は40-80万人、 日本人の被害は、500-1000万人の死亡というものであった。日本人の民間人の多数が 戦闘に参加するという前提で推定された。 ・・・・ Nearly 500,000 Purple Heart medals were manufactured in anticipation of the casualties resulting from the invasion of Japan. このためアメリカ政府は50万個のパープルハート勲章(=戦場における名誉の負傷)を 製造して日本侵略に伴う被害者の大量発生に備えた。
To the present date, all the American military casualties of the sixty years following the end of World War II ― including the Korean and Vietnam Wars ― have not exceeded that number. しかし、日本侵略での大きな被害は発生せず、60年を経たいまでも、朝鮮戦争、ベトナム 戦争があったにもかかわらず、軍人の被害はこの数(パープルハート勲章の製造数)に及 ばず、当時の勲章が今も残っている。
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- The head of the Securities and Exchange Commission told lawmakers Tuesday that the agency has opened 12 enforcement investigations into matters surrounding collateralized debt obligations. SECのコックス会長は、議会の聴聞に答えて12のCDOを調査中であるとした。
"There is now a commonality of interest between banking regulators and securities regulators when it comes to safety and soundness" issues, SEC Chairman Christopher Cox said in response to a question from a member of the House Financial Services Committee during a hearing. 「銀行規制委員会や証券業規制委員会の関心が、(CDOなどに関する)安全性や健全性 の問題に集中している」
“This is just the tip of the iceberg,” said Oded Shenkar, a professor of management at Ohio State University and author of “The Chinese Century,” referring to the spate of recalls and problem products from China. “We’re going to see more and more problems with Chinese products because there’s inadequate oversight in the manufacturing process. I’ve even heard about counterfeit car brakes being made there.” --------------------------------------------------------------------- 今回のタイアメーカーは中国の国有企業で、自動車用タイアの製造はグッドイアー との合弁で、技術移転して始めたようなのだけれど、その後に(勝手に)製造仕様 を変えて問題を起こしているらすぃ。
<ウオール街のムードについて、WSJのブログ、マーケットビート> Analysts at Briefing.com ・・・ had this to say about the mood: “There’s no denying that underlying sentiment has shifted and that the upward market momentum has disappeared for the time being, even though weak inflation trends and reasonable valuations on the overall market remain supportive.” They added that it’s also “not surprising” to see the S&P 500 continue to consolidate, as the index is still up about 20% in the past year or so. しばらく悲観的なムードが続きそうな。
ベア・スターンズの他者による買収の噂があったが、それには否定的な意見が。 Richard X. Bove of Punk Ziegel, says the buyout talk “makes little sense.” In a note out today, Mr. Bove says that, if Bear were to sell itself, “the compensation packages now being awarded to the top five executives in the company would be dramatically reduced.” So it would only be sold if it was in “financial trouble,” he says, in which case “it would be unlikely that a buyer would pay a premium to make the purchase.” ttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/
Japan: Psychology Picking Up, Lingering Issue is Catalysts
Below we record our impressions from meeting with investors in Europe over the last week. With stocks having broken out of their May trading range and a 7-year high, we believe investors have a somewhat more constructive stance on Japanese equities than at the time of our US visit. There is also some sign of expectations of return reversal with the continuing slide in the yen. In other words, investors are looking at Japan with a certain eye toward investment. The lingering issue is catalysts.(後略)
However, given current conditions where the yen is inversely correlated to overseas asset prices as a funding currency, asset price procurement, equity/bond/real estate asset price adjustments in high yield countries could act as catalysts for a rebound in the yen. Unfortunately, it is difficult to look for the timing, but one possibility would be tightening by overseas central banks such as the ECB, BOE, or Fed. As such, here too the point is inflationary concerns. However, here too this is not our main scenario.
The strides Singapore is making as a center for trading, hedge funds and private banking should worry Hong Kong officials -- especially as they look out their office windows at a skyline obscured by pollution. ・・ It would be a tragedy if leaders squandered Hong Kong's future by being complacent today. Then, Mickey Mouse wouldn't be the only one needing a gas mask.
Sadakazu Tanigaki, finance minister in the previous administration, said in an interview with the FT on Tuesday night: “The resignation of Abe is not out of the question, though we are doing our best to prevent it. But if we lost badly, it would be hard to pass legislation and so nothing would move forward.” He added: “Historically, when the Liberal Democratic party has lost a lot of seats, somebody has been held accountable.”
(中略) Nevertheless, observers are speculating about who might succeed Mr Abe, with Taro Aso, foreign minister, and Mr Tanigaki among the favourites. 安倍首相の退任の場合の後継は麻生外相と谷垣元財務相だという。 ttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/4ee67f1c-240a-11dc-8ee2-000b5df10621.html Poll rout could force Abe to resign -------------------------------------------------------------------- FTにしては如何なものかと思える記事だけど、何しろDavid Pilling記者が書いて いるものなので、致し方ないというか苦笑すべきというか・・まともな東京特派員 というのは真に見つけ難いわけ(ry
日経225 17,849.28(大引) -216.83(-1.200%) 日経225先物9月 17,850 -240 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- アジアのほかの市場も、似たようなもので All Ordinaries 6,228.90 1:49AM ET Down 108.40 (1.71%)↓豪州 Shanghai Composite 4,008.46 Jun 26Up 35.09 (0.88%) Hang Seng 21,637.34 12:49AM ET Down 166.23 (0.76%)↓香港 BSE 30 14,456.77 1:49AM ET Down 44.31 (0.31%)↓印度 Jakarta Composite 2,117.54 1:48AM ET Down 36.00 (1.67%)↓インドネシア Straits Times 3,494.16 12:29AM ET Down 30.94 (0.88%)↓シンガポール Seoul Composite 1,735.44 1:49AM ET Down 14.11 (0.81%)↓韓国 Taiwan Weighted 8,844.22 1:04AM ET Down 21.53 (0.24%)↓台湾 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4gRljBMosmc&refer=home Asian Stocks Slide to Two-Week Low on Metals, U.S. Home Sales By Chen Shiyin and Stuart Kelly June 27, 2007 02:16 EDT
Asian stocks fell to the lowest in two weeks after commodity prices dropped and on concern a U.S. housing slump will curb growth in the region's biggest export market.
世界有数の産油国イランでガソリンが配給制となるのは、イラン・イラク戦争(1980 〜88年)時以来。配給制は、各車両ごとに割当量を設け、ICカードに使用量を記録 して行われる。同省によると、1か月の割当量は、自家用乗用車で100リットル、タ クシーが800リットルとなる。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/06/27/africa/ME-GEN-Iran-Fuel-Rationing.php Gas stations attacked amid anger over Iran's new fuel rationing The Associated Press Published: June 27, 2007 IHT:イランで、ガソリン配給制に怒った国民が、ガス・ステーヨンを襲撃
Several stations were attacked "by vandals," state radio reported early Wednesday. It did not say how many stations were damaged or give details. 国営放送に拠れば、怒った「暴徒」が幾つかのガス・ステーションを襲った。その詳細 数については報道さレていない。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.gulfnews.com/region/Iran/10135222.html この記事には「暴徒」の襲撃の写真。ガス・ステーションと付近の車に放火したと。
Here’s one to get the Americans going. Imagine that your prime US assets being coveted not by China, not by investors from the Middle East - but from a cosy tie-up of the two. The horror! Alert Congress. Something must be done. アメリカ人が気にしそうな話がある。アメリカ国内の優良資産が、中国ではなく、 中東の投資家でも無く、その二つの提携によって買収対象として狙われている。 恐るべき話だ!議会に通報すべきでは?何かがなされるべきである。
Reuters reports on Wednesday that the bete noires of US inward investment, China (see CNOOC/Unocal) and Dubai (see DP World furore), are in talks about cooperating their state investment agencies. The newswire quotes an executive of Dubai World as saying that senior officials have already spoken about possible tie-ups, which could involve asset swaps, as China readies a vehicle that could wield as much as $200bn in investment might. ロイターの報道では、悪魔のような(bete noires)中国+ドバイの投資提携の話があ って、両者は国営の投資機関の構想を協議している。高官らが既に話し合いを始めて いて、資産スワップを使って中国の$200B(24兆円)の資産の投資につながり得ると いう。
The fund will invest one-sixth of the country’s $1,200bn in foreign exchange reserves around the globe - and the embryonic agency has already coughed up $3bn on a 10 per cent stake in Blackstone, of course. (Better luck next time - Blackstone lasted two days before slipping back below its offer price of $31 a share on Tuesday to close at $30.75.) 国営ファンドは中国の$1200Bの外貨準備の六分の一を投資するという構想で、その構 想の先駆け的な機関がブラックストーンのIPOの一割である$3Bを投資した。(ただ し、ブラックストーンはIPO2日めに売り出し価格を割り込んでいるけど)
The standing committee of the Chinese parliament has started to review the proposal and the suggestion is that the yet-to-be-named fund, modelled on Singapore’s state investment vehicle, will buy stakes worldwide in quoted companies and real estate, as well as making private equity investments. 中国の議会の常任委員会は提案書の審議を始めていて、国営ファンドは今のところ名前 がついていないけれど、シンガポールの国営ファンドをモデルにしていて、世界中に投 資し、企業や不動産の買収、プライベート・エクイティへの投資を行なう。
Isthithmar, part of the Dubai government’s investment arm, has already made waves, building a 2.7 per cent stake in Standard Chartered and last week snapping up the QE2 liner for $100m. HSBC already has two middle eastern investors on its books. ドバイ政府の投資機関であるIsthithmarは既に動きを始めていて、スタンダード&チャー タード銀行の2.7%を保有し、先週はQE2関連の$100Mを投資した。HSBCの主要株主 にはすでに2人中東の投資家の名前がある。
Companies in the west had better get used to being on the receiving end of this pair’s attentions. The politicians probably should start preparing themselves too. 西欧の企業は、この両国の投資機関の対象にされることを予想しておいたほうが宜しい。 政治家も、多分何か準備を始めるべきだろう。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 良くワカランけど、中国がアメリカ財務省債券で保有している外貨準備をドバイが資産 スワップ契約を結んで、その資金で企業や不動産を買収するというアイデアかすらん?
財務相の Jin Renqingは、ファンドが海外の産業や金融商品に投資すると語っている。 国内でこうした債券を発行することは過剰な流動性を吸収する為の手段にもなる。財務 省は1.55兆元($203.5B)の10年満期債券を発行し、是を元に$200Bの外貨を買う。 中国の議会(National People's Congress )の常任委員会は昨日提案書をレビューし始 め手織り、今週承認される見通しである。
<WSJマーケット・ビート・ブログの、今日のコメント> Ryan Detrick, chief technical strategist at Schaeffer’s Investment Research, noted that today’s bounce came amid lower volume, which he says is to be expected this time of year heading into the July 4 holiday. Schaefferの投資リサーチの主任ストラテジスト、Ryan Detrickは今日のラリーにつ いて、ボリュームは少なく、この時期に起こることは予想されていたという。7月4日 の休日に先立つ週であるために。
When stocks were lower, he said, “there were a lot of program buys and big blocks [of stocks] going off, which shows people were panicking” said Mr. Detrick. “This morning was ugly. High-flying stocks were getting pounded, people threw in the towel – it was kind of a bottom.” But most of those “high-flying stocks” finished the day higher, he said. ttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/ 彼によれば、株価が安くなれば「プログラム買いが多く出たはずだが、多くの株がそう なっていなくて、人々がパニックになっていることを示す」「朝方は酷かった。優良株 が安値になっていて、人々がそれにタオルを投げた。ある種の底だった」それで。優良 株が買われ、終値では高くなった、という。
日本政府関係者は北朝鮮が同日、日本海に向けて短距離ミサイルを発射したことを 明らかにしていた。ジョンドロー報道官は「弾道ミサイル」と断定したものの、 具体的な性能には言及しなかった。新型弾道ミサイルのテストを実施した可能性も ある。(後略) -------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/06/28/1964089.htm?section=justin US condemns latest N Korea missile launches AFP
"The United States is deeply troubled that North Korea has decided to launch these missiles during a delicate time in the six-party talks," National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe said in a statement. The statement did not reveal how many missiles were involved but Mr Johndroe said the launches were "a violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1718, which prohibits North Korea from engaging in all ballistic missile activities".
Mr Johndroe said the US Government expects North Korea "to refrain from conducting further provocative ballistic missile launches," which he said destabilise the security of north-east Asia. North Korea should instead "turn its focus to implementing its commitments under the February 13th agreement, including the immediate shutdown of Yongbyon," he said, referring to North Korea's main nuclear reactor site.
The spike in bond prices and decline in yields "has really been driven by the mess we have in the subprime market and the [collateralized debt obligation] market," said Maryann Hurley, vice president at D.A. Davidson. "It's a flight -to-quality bid – people are shying away from other classes that are more risky, such as mortgages and corporate [bonds]." If investors hear more bad news about subprimes and CDOs, "the 10-year will easily go below 5%," she said. ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB118294416834849902.html?mod=home_whats_news_us
・・・however, is the institution that started it all with its mistakes in monetary policy -- the Federal Reserve.
All indications are that the Fed will keep its 5.25% target fed funds rate today, while perhaps fiddling with its accompanying policy "guidance." We'd feel better, however, if the Governors leaned toward protecting the dollar and curbing any credit excesses built on expectations of future dollar inflation around the world.
For that matter, the Fed would have done better to keep raising rates a year ago. That might have deterred some of the high-yield credit risks that Mr. Warsh warned about in a follow-up "liquidity" speech in London earlier this month.
【ワシントン=立尾良二】米国家安全保障会議(NSC)のジョンドロー報道官は 二十七日、北朝鮮のミサイル発射について「非常に困ったことだ」と批判した。 韓国メディアは北朝鮮が同日、短距離ミサイル一、二発を日本海に向けて発射した としているが、同報道官は「弾道ミサイル」と述べた。AP通信によると、米国防 総省当局者は発射されたミサイルは三発だったとしている。(後略) ------------------------------------------------------------------- South Korean news agency Yonhap reported that North Korea tested a short-range missile on Wednesday, which was confirmed by two officials at the US Defense Department, who said there were three launches. ttp://www.rttnews.com/FOREX/politicalnews.asp?date=06/28/2007&item=4
ttp://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=11466869 Seven Things to Consider Before Buying an iPhone by Maria Godoy 否定的な見方のひとつでNPRに書いているのも。あら捜しをいろいろやっていて、 それは多分正しいのだろうけれど、それだけでは売れるか売れないかは決められない かもしれない。(iPodの競合商品が機能的には見劣りしないのと同じで・・・) ただし、電話(会話)をメインに考える人に、iPhoneの意味があるかという疑問はある ような。
これはWSJの試用、評価記事で、書いているのはテクノ・ギア評論家。2週間試用し て評価記事を書いている。キイボードでなくてタッチ・スクリーンを使って文章入力 するのに慣れるのに5日かかった。AT&Tの通信サービスに幾つかの不満がある。 全体として幾つか文句はあるといいながら高い評価。Webブラウジングには特に高 い評価をつけている。単に電話したい人のためのギアではないし、安くないが面白い という。 Expectations for the iPhone have been so high that it can't possibly meet them all. It isn't for the average person who just wants a cheap, small phone for calling and texting. But, despite its network limitations, the iPhone is a whole new experience and a pleasure to use.
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent. ・・・ Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months. However, a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated. Moreover, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.(後略)
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) today announced a broader import control of all farm-raised catfish, basa, shrimp, dace (related to carp), and eel from China. FDA will start to detain these products at the border until the shipments are proven to be free of residues from drugs that are not approved in the United States for use in farm-raised aquatic animals. FDAは中国製の養殖鯰、鯉、海老、basa fish(鯰の仲間)、鰻について輸入コントロール を設定する。FDAはこれらの水産物を輸入された時点で留め置き(detain)、それらの 製品がアメリカで禁止された薬品や化学物質などの汚染から無害であると証明されるまで それを継続する。 (中略) The contaminants were the antimicrobials nitrofuran, malachite green, gentian violet, and fluoroquinolone. Nitrofuran, malachite green, and gentian violet have been shown to be carcinogenic with long-term exposure in lab animals. The use of fluoroquinolones in food animals may increase antibiotic resistance to this critically important class of antibiotics. これまで水産物に検出された禁止物質は、二トロフラン、マラカイト・グリーン、ゲンテ ィアン・バイオレット、抗生物質のfluoroquinoloneなどである。(後略)
Stocks ended barely changed as the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, as expected, citing modest improvement in core inflation and moderate economic growth. ・・・ Many traders considered it significant that the Fed no longer described "core" inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, as being "somewhat elevated" and instead said core inflation had "improved modestly." But policy makers also warned they were still worried about inflation and that "a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated."
If the bond issue were to be made in one go, the impact on market liquidity would be huge, potentially causing the money market rates and bond yields to shoot up.
However, we attach a low probability to such a scenario. Fundamentally, the objective of maintaining a stable or gradually appreciating currency dictates that domestic interest rates have to be kept at relatively low levels to help ease the pressures on the currency appreciation.
In particular, since China ended its fixed exchange rate regime with the US$ in mid-2005, the stable spread has been maintained between renminbi and US$ interest rates. As long as the exchange rate objective remains the primary one, the authorities would be unlikely to tolerate a sharp jump in domestic interest rates.
This boils down to an issue of coordination between fiscal operations (i.e., the bond issue) and monetary policy (i.e., the PBoC’s open market operations, RRR hikes).
Such coordination is critical to China’s macroeconomic stability at the current juncture, and we have reason to believe that it will be carried out in a very effective way in view of the authorities’ track record of skilful macroeconomic management.
Iranians were given only two hours' notice of the move that limits private drivers to 100 litres of fuel a month. Despite its huge energy reserves Iran lacks refining capacity, forcing it to import about 40% of its petrol. Tehran is trying to rein in fuel consumption over fears of possible UN sanctions over its nuclear programme. Iran fears the West could sanction its petrol imports and cripple its economy. 石油を輸出する国が、ガソリンを配給制度下に置く事は非常に危険だ。
It is a dangerous move for any elected government, especially in an oil-rich country like Iran where people think cheap fuel is their birthright and public transport is very limited, she says. The US, which is leading efforts to pressure Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment activities, has said Iran's fuel imports are a point of "leverage". イランはガソリンを輸入しないといけない国だ。石油精製工場がほとんど無い。その為、ガソリンの輸入を アメリカが規制すれば、経済及び軍隊も止まる。インフレも高い。雇用も低い。悪い経済状況の中、今の」 政権は持つのだろうか。
Global credit markets are jittery. Like motorists driving past a crash, bond investors are taking a ghoulish interest in the wreckage of two Bear Stearns hedge funds hit by US subprime housing loans, and refusing to buy into the risky new deals on offer from investment banks. Without a more substantial external shock, however, this is unlikely to turn into a systemic meltdown in the credit markets. グローバル・クレディット市場が苛立っている。交通事故を起こしたドライバーの ように、債券市場への投資家はベア・スターンズの二つのヘッジ・ファンドの悪霊 に悩まされる。それはアメリカの住宅ローンのサブプライム市場で失敗したので、 投資家達が投資銀行の提示する新たな、リスキーな商品に投資することを拒否して いる。しかしながら、追加的な、大きな外部ショックが無い限り、この事件がクレ ジット市場のシステミックなメルト・ダウンに発展することは無さそうである。
(ベアスターンズのファンドの失敗、CDOについての解説、省略) The question is whether it could cause forced sales of bonds that undermined the wider credit markets. There are signs of nervousness: KKR, the buy-out firm, has had to delay a bond offering by US Foodservice, one of its portfolio companies, after investors refused to bite. 問題は、この事件が、債券の強制的な販売につながり、より広範な債券市場に被害が及 ぶかである。心配なサインはあって、バイアウト屋のKKRはUS Foodserviceのバイア ウト用の債券の発売を遅らさざるを得なくなった。
But widespread, lasting contagion from the subprime crash seems unlikely, because alongside these wobbles has come broadly good economic news. Real interest rates have risen as US investors reassessed the prospects for growth, and the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year. しかし、広い範囲のサブプライム市場の失敗からの長続きするような伝染は無さそうで ある。何故ならば、これらの憂鬱なニュースが、より良い経済ニュースと共に起こって いるからで、アメリカ経済の成長と、FRBが年末に利下げする可能性を投資家が再評 価したことから実際の金利が上昇している。
Credit spreads remain unusually low – perhaps driven by global financial integration – and there is no question that the markets for securities such as high-yield corporate bonds are vulnerable to a fall. But a more substantial trigger than subprime will probably be needed for that setback to materialise. クレディット・スプレッドは異常に薄いが恐らくはグローバルな金融インテグレーション のためである。ハイ・イールドの社債などの価値の落下する可能性はある。それでも、 サブプライム市場よりも大きなトリガーがおこらなければ、それは問題に発展しないだ ろう。
The CDO market needs to grow up, fast. Participants need to improve the transparency and independence of pricing and develop more liquid markets for secondary trading. If the subprime slide does get worse, this lack of liquidity could lead to a wider crisis. CDO市場は成長が必要で、しかも速く必要だ。市場参加者は透明性と価格付の独立性 を改善すべきで、より流動的な第二次取引の市場が必要だ。もしサブプライムの状況が 悪化するなら流動性の欠如がより大きな危機につながる。
But balance of probability is that we are just seeing a shake-out in a market – subprime – that was always high-risk. If investors in other assets take note, and moderate their appetites for risk, today’s jitters may prevent a nastier credit crunch in months to come. しかし、確率的なバランスから見て、我々の見ているものはサブプライム市場の合理化 (再編成)であると思われ、それは常にハイリスクである。ほかの資産への投資家が心 すべきことは、リスクへの食欲をほどほどにすべきということで、今日の苛立ちは、今 後何ヶ月も後の、より厄介な、クレディット・クランチの到来を防ぐものなのかもしれ ない。
WSJに市況記事を書いているJOANNAに拠れば、月末の金曜日、Q2最後の日のマーケ ットは後半に崩れたのだけれど、特に大きな理由は無くて、出来高も低いという。 JPモーガンのプライベートバンクのストラテジストに拠れば: The late-day sag in stocks was due to "a combination of higher oil again weighing on sentiment, and a desire to go home with relatively lower risk portfolios"
While this renormalization of risk spreads represents a tightening of financial conditions, it is so far proceeding in an orderly way. But in my view, it is far from over; 事態は発展中で、従来のリスク食欲多すぎ、レバレッジかけ過ぎ、流動性過剰といった 状況からの正常化なので、クランチに発展する可能性が無いとはいえないが、大事件と かが発生しなければ、そうしたシナリオは考えにくい。最近になって金融機関の融資の 審査が厳格になってきている。
Risk spreads should continue to widen significantly in my view, but the process likely will be orderly. A rise in volatility and demands that pricing reflect the underlying collateral rather than structured ratings likely will promote a healthy reordering of relative values. Specifically, CDOs and CLOs that are rated and priced on the basis of their structure may quickly be repriced to reflect the value of their components. Hopefully the ratings will catch up.
More importantly, the scandal has revealed serious lapses in the administrative ability of both Beijing and the provinces. In spite of the fact that President Hu had launched a full-year, Maoist-style ideological campaign in 2004 to “raise the governance capability of party cadres and members,” poor governance and corruption has persisted throughout all levels of the Chinese government. ・・・ A few of the more liberal local papers outside Shanxi have taken advantage of the furor to report that despite the tough action taken during the past fortnight, the basic problem of local officials providing shelter to illicit mine and kiln owners has remained unresolved. For example, at least two-thirds of the brick kilns in remote counties in Shanxi remain unregistered. A State Council edict last year forbidding officials from becoming investors in private coal mines and other small-scale but lucrative businesses has also not been fully observed (Chongqing Morning Post, June 20; Xiaoxiang Morning Post, June 22). In other words, unless there is rigorous pressure from the Politburo―or from the Hong Kong and overseas media―many more of China’s long-suffering migrant workers and uneducated children will continue to be exploited in Shanxi. 経営者、共産党、メディア、警察など司法機関の結託している、地方のこうした惨状 や腐敗は北京政府にも隠されていて見えていないので、それを暴くことの出来るメデ ィアが現れない限り変わらないとWilly Lamはいう。
入札には米ロッキード・マーチンのF16、ボーイングのF/A18のほか、ロシアのミグ 35、欧州4カ国が共同開発したユーロファイター・タイフーンなどの参加が有力視され ている。中国の軍備増強などを背景に、インドの2007年度(07年4月―翌3月)国防予算 は前年度比8%増の約9600億ルピー(約2兆8800億円)に達し、ここ数年増加の一途をた どっている。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-17818878.htm India to announce huge fighter jet contract
Indian defence ministry officials and industry sources said the choice appeared to have narrowed down to the Russian-built MiG-35 and MiG-29 aircraft, and US offerings the Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) F-16 and Boeing (NYSE:BA) F-18.