Kerry. The gift that keeps on giving.(キャプティンズ・クオータ・ブログ) ケリーさん、贈り物乙、お陰で効果が。 ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー ttp://hughhewitt.townhall.com/g/f9b76303-e1b9-40d6-a638-ce6c33d63295 Five Explanations For Democrats Feeling That Browns' Fans Feeling Posted by Hugh Hewitt Sunday, November 05, 2006
HH:最後に巻き返しの来たことの説明になりそうなもの The change in the wind that favors the Republicans has five possible explanations:
a.) the pollsters consistently underweighted GOP turnout and are scrambling to avoid being Zogbied. 昨年のゾグビーの失敗を避ける為、最後に正しい調査(修正)をした
b.) GOP faithful and center-right independents are unhappy with President Bush and the Congress for a number of reasons (tin-eared non-responsiveness on the border, spend, and one I'll discuss at length on Wednesday) and told pollsters, bit have now relented as they realize that no matter what the problem is, the answer can't be more Democrats. 共和党支持者が不満を募らせていたが、最後になって、やはり民主党に任せられないと いう事で・・・
c.) John Kerry reminded Americans of the left's contempt for the military specifically as well as its fecklessness on matters of national security generally, and voters want to stay alive. "Any vote for any Democrat is a vote against victory and a vote for vulnerability" is a concise summary of a broad truth. ケリー発言のお陰で、勝利することが必要と再確認したため
d.) The Rove-Mehlman GOTV machine is rolling out, powered by polite volunteers who understand the need to persuade not merely berate. You can help here on Monday and Tuesday --from the comfort of your own home. カールローブの選挙マシーンが動き出した為
Across the board, in Senate, House and Governor's races, the wave boosting the Democrats crested about 10 days ago. Since then the advantage Democrats have built throughout the year has been reduced by from 1.5 to 3.5 percentage points. While forces are still a net positive to the Democrats, these forces are weaker than they were during the week before Halloween. This implies that the most competitive races will now be harder for Democrats to win and easier for Republicans to hold. This implies that the anticipation of a major surge to Democrats now needs to be reconsidered.
While race-by-race estimates still show an 18 seat Democratic gain, and 27 seats as tossups (see our scorecard at Pollster.com here), this reduction in national forces makes it less likely the Democrats sweep the large majority of the tossup seats and could result in total gains in the 20s rather than the 30s or even 40s that looked plausible 10 days ago. 下院で10日前には30以上、40台の議席追加も可能と思われたが、今では20台ではないかと思 われる。
(中略)
So what does this mean? The House still looks likely to go Democratic, but probably by a smaller margin that it might have a week ago. For a while, the Senate looked to come down to who won two of VA, TN and MO. Now MT must be added to that, and TN moved to lean Rep, perhaps requiring a Dem sweep of VA, MO and MT. (Momentum in VA remains pro-Dem, while MO is completely flat and MT is strongly trending Rep.) Possible but more of a trick that 2 of the former 3 states. この結果どう言う事になるかといえば下院は民主党が過半数を占めるだろうが以前に考えら れたよりは差が少なくなる。下院は接戦での勝敗如何になるがVA, MO and MTのなかの2州を とれるかといった程度になる。
So no firm prediction here, but the evidence is that the Dems are falling back from their best chance of large gains. 確実な予測は難しいが民主党が多数議席を獲得するベストチャンスは過ぎ去ったようだ。
Yesterday, I suggested the range in the Senate was 4-6 with a five seat pickup for the Democrats as the most likely outcome. Today's information would appear to remove the possibility of Democratic pickups above 6, and with the surprising results out of Rhode Island and the continuing confirmation that Maryland is indeed in play, the range can now credibly be as wide as 2-6.
U.K.'s Koryo Asia to Buy North Korean Bank Under U.S. Sanctions
McAskill's argument that Daedong Credit Bank serves only foreign, not North Korean, customers and that its transactions are legal and transparent may not win an audience at the U.S. Treasury Department.
ムーアのそうしたステレオタイプ化は効果があって、その後に以下のような記事が見られる。 つまり、おなじステレオタイプのエコーを繰り返すわけである。 (例) New YorkDaily News, November 8, 2005: “Youth from low-income areas are far more likely to end up in the military.”[1]
Washington Post, November 4, 2005 (page A-1): “[T]he military is leaning heavily for recruits on economically depressed, rural areas where youths’ need for jobs may outweigh the risks of going to war.”[2]
Los AngelesTimes, September 24, 2005: “The [GAO] report appears to support the contention that service in the military reserves is most attractive to young men living in low- or medium-income families in rural communities.”[3]
# New York Times, August 18, 2005: “Very few” of the soldiers fighting in Iraq “are coming from the privileged economic classes.”[4]
He said that in addition to worries about the economy, traditionally Republican Wall Street was probably concerned last week that it looked like the Democrats had a chance of taking both chambers of Congress. However, he said that as of Monday, it looks more likely that the Democrats will take the House of Representatives, but not the Senate. アナリストによれば、先週は経済減速の心配に加えて、民主党が上下院を制するのではない かとの心配があった。月曜日になって、民主党が下院の過半数を制するにせよ、上院までは 制することはないとの見方が広がった。
This would be comforting to investors as there's "no chance of either party running away with an agenda that's not centrist." このため投資家の心配事が消えた「民主、共和の両方とも、上下院を独占できないことになり 極端な政策は取れず、穏健で中道的になると見方がある」
Wall Street could be in for a shock if the Democrats take control of both the House and Senate, analysts said. A Democratic House "has probably been discounted by the various markets," wrote Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James. "However, if the Democrats take control of the entire Congress, we don't think it would be particularly stock-market friendly."
Democrats can probably recapture the House just by consolidating their hold over places already trending their way (like the Northeast and mid-Atlantic) and capitalizing on opportunities created by Republican scandals
But Democrats can take the Senate only by breaking through in states such as Missouri, Montana and Virginia, where Republican defenses remain formidable. A big win in the House would require Democrats to overrun the GOP in conservative-leaning districts across states such as North Carolina, Indiana and Kentucky.
That means Democrats won't maximize their gains unless they can cross the last mile with voters in right-of-center communities whose partisan and cultural inclinations usually bend them to the GOP in the end.
Most pundit scenarios, including mine, depend on all those angry liberals and Democrats actually getting out there and voting. This is just a thought, but what happens if the Democrats have a down day tomorrow in terms of voter turnout?
I believe GOP turnout will be strong for a mid-term, even approaching 2002 when the GOP took the majority in the Senate and added a few seats to their majority in the House. If that is the case, the Democrats will need a monstrous effort to fulfill the promise thought to be in hand just a little while ago.
THE latest polls portend disaster for the Republican Party tomorrow. The House appears to be gone; the Senate is teetering on the brink. このゾグビーの予言どおりになるかどうか、暫くすれば結果が出るわけで・・
THE DOW INDUSTRIALS ROSE 119.51 points, or 1%, to 12105.55, boosted by a blitz of mergers and buyouts, as investors seemed unfazed by Tuesday's congressional elections. (4:19 p.m.) ttp://online.wsj.com/home/us?refresh=on
THE SENATE: +6 Dems = 51D, 49R 上院を民主党が確保 THE HOUSE: +29 Dems = 232D, 203R 下院は30近い大差で民主党が圧倒 ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー <中間選挙、プロ・コンサバの予想> ttp://www.humanevents.com/evansnovak.php?id=17896 Week of November 6, 2006 by Robert Novak Posted Nov 06, 2006
Dems Set to Gain 19 House, 2 Senate Seats 上院は共和党が確保、民主党惨敗、下院は民主党が僅かに上回る過半数
UN to appoint former Moonie as head of World Food Programme (国連、WFPのトップに元統一教会員を任命) John Hooper in Rome and Ed Pilkington in New York The Guardian:November 7, 2006 ・Candidate was Unification Church figure for 20 years 候補者は20年間統一教会の会員だった ・Bush administration is backing application ブッシュ政権は申請を支援
The US and South Korea have confirmed they won't recognise North Korea as a nuclear weapons state after high-level meetings. The two countries said in a joint statement they hoped to implement at an "early date" a September 2005 agreement on the North's disarmament through six-nation talks that Pyongyang last week agreed to rejoin.
The US has said it wants the South to increase its participation in the US-led Proliferation Security Initiative in light of the North's October 9 nuclear test and UN Security Council sanctions banning the country's weapons trade, but so far Seoul has only sent observers to exercises.
It is very difficult to make race-by-race forecasts on House races, and easier to do so for the Senate. That said it is time to stop hedging, and make a forecast. I predict the Republicans will hold the Senate, and lose the House. Neither result is a certainty.
上院について Two weeks ago, the best Republican chances of holding the Senate appeared to be to win one of the two hotly contested Southern/border state tossup races: Virginia (Allen) and Missouri (Talent), and hold Tennessee. Now they only need to win one of five tossups, with Tennessee looking safe.
Looking only at pollsters I consider reliable, Missouri, and Virginia appear to be ties, with perhaps a very slight late edge to the Republican incumbents. Montana, Maryland and Rhode Island appear to have a slight edge to the Democrats, though the momentum in all three races is with the Republicans.
下院について As for the House, I feel a bit better than before about the GOP chances of holding control, but still think it is a long-shot. I give the GOP a 20% chance of hanging on (losing fewer than 15 net seats). Last week, I thought the GOP would lose 20-25, this week maybe 15-20. Again, there are not a lot of new House polls that are out to see if the national generic trend (which by the way, Time, Newsweek and CNN deny has occurred) is showing up in local races. So this is guesswork.
Stuart Rothenberg や Charles Cookなどのアナリストは共和党下院議席の60-70程度が民主党 の攻撃対象になるというが、Rahm Emanuel はきのうTVに出演して、攻撃対象は48議席とい っている。一部のアナリストの言う民主党が35-40議席を獲得というシナリオは非現実的にみえ る。ただし、(スキャンダルなどの)トラブルを抱えている共和党は、大変攻撃に弱い選挙区 を抱えていて、問題のありそうなのは以下の地域である。フロリダ(Fla. 16) 、コネチカット (Ct. 2) 、(中略)
It is a measure of the GOP's problems this year that these seats were still in play on the final weekend. It is not hard to see the GOP losing 20 or more seats from this collection.
My forecast now is 15-20 lost seats, down from 20-25 in my previous assessment. This reflects the 5 at-risk GOP seats that probably have already moved due to the national shift. I just do not know which ones they are. Since there are 10-12 GOP held seats that will almost surely turn over, it is not difficult to see the Democrats winning 3-5 of the tossups or leaning-Republican seats to gain control.
Mainstream news organizations know that bloggers will eventually get their hands on the exit-poll data, but their goal is to delay it as long as possible because the accuracy of the data improves as the day goes on.
In previous years, numbers were made available to the news organizations in waves via secure Web sites. In 2004, the first wave of data went out around 2 p.m. and quickly leaked onto the Internet. That's what brought about this year's sequestering of the news organization's representatives. The only communication they'll be allowed to make out of the so-called quarantine rooms before 5 p.m. will be to warn their new organizations about potential problems in the data. (In 2000, faulty polling prompted some networks to incorrectly call Florida in favor of Al Gore.) Those messages will be monitored by representatives of the polling firm NEP has contracted with.
But at 5 p.m., waves of exit-poll data will begin flowing to newsrooms via limited -access Web sites. For the bloggers, the scramble will be on to get the data first, hoping for an email from a friendly source. 今回は午後5時に最初の出口調査のデータが流される予定
most likely Senate pickup for Democrats was five, today in RCP's final projection we think four seats is now the most likely outcome. In the House, the generic close should work to keep Republican losses muted; we've projected 19 seats with a range of 14 - 24.
上院で共和党勝利の可能性(長い分析部分をすべてカット) So... Obi Wan emphasizes that we can't completely rule out the possibility of the Democrats still winning the House and having a good night. But there is a big, clear wave breaking the Republicans' way in just about every competitive race coast to coast, and it could mean results very, very different from what the Washington crowd expected. 民主党が下院を制する可能性は残るのだが、ワシントンの多くの人の考えているような 下院は民主党という前提が崩れる可能性があって、そうなれば皆が大いに驚くことになる。
下院(分析部分をすべてカット) Anyway, I think this puts the GOP at -3 in the Senate, and I said 51-49-Lieberman in my print predictions, so maybe one of these Republicans falls just short. 共和党は3議席失い、民主=49、共和=51、+リーバーマンという形に
Fox News is reporting that Senator Chuck Schumer has gone on record saying he expects the Democrats will probably pick up three or four seats in the Senate, but not the six seats necessary for a majority. FOXニュースによれば、民主党左派のシューマー上院議員がオン・ザ・レコードで、 民主党は上院選挙で3から4議席獲得と述べる。(過半数を獲得できない) ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー これは従来の民主党の主張(上下両院を獲得する)に比べて、大変後退した発言で選挙の 投票前にこういう発言が出てくることは驚き。この解釈として、期待値を予め下げている わけで、民主党にとって悪い結果を予測している(上院、下院を含めて)というものが・・
ttp://instapundit.com/archives2/2006/11/post_105.php November 07, 2006 My prediction: If they're bad for the GOP they'll leak early. If they're good for the GOP, they won't. posted at 08:40 AM by Glenn Reynolds
Surprises: Webb beats Allen. Tester underperforms. His loss, along with Lamont’s, leads the MSM to start mocking blogs relentlessly. Ford’s appearance on the cover of Newsweek looks silly in retrospect. And Nelson’s win in Nebraska is closer than anyone ever expected. The conventional wisdom on the Democratic nomination shifts from Hillary to Obama surprisingly quickly.
November 7, 2006 Why Allen Might Lose Posted by JAY COST John from Danville, VA offers this intriguing hypothesis:
Jim Webb has played this strategy to perfection. At the conclusion of the June primary, Webb had less than 100K in cash and trailed Allen by 16 points.
What did Webb do? He simply took a vacation. He hardly campaigned at all. He ran no media from primary day until Labor Day. His most vigorous campaigning was a one week stretch of "kitchen campaigning" in which he met with a dozen or so people in a home to discuss issues. That's it.
Sometimes the best strategy in a political campaign is to "do nothing." First of all, it is true that most people don't pay attention to campaigns in the summer. There's a thousand things more exciting in life than to start worrying about an election in November. Secondly, overexposure can be a bad thing. There gets to be a point where a candidate can just become annoying by being seen so many times. Doing nothing is the perfect antidote to overexposure. Finally, in the age of YouTube, if your opponent campaigns in the dog days, they may make a mistake which you can capitalize on. Meanwhile you do nothing, and there is not YouTube to sink you. ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー 有名で、資産もあって、大統領候補に名前の挙がるような政治家で、メディアの露出の多い アレンが敗退するのであれば、まことに考えるべきことは多そうな。マカカ発言のダメージ コントロールの失敗は致命的のようだけれど、基本的には露出過剰が政治的に必ずしも正し い戦略ではない、という説はよくよく考えてみる価値がありそう。
Dean Baquet, the editor of The Los Angeles Times, who refused to go along with staff cutbacks ordered by its owner, the Tribune Company, was forced out of his job today.
出口調査について、 November 07, 2006 MARK BLUMENTHAL: "we all need to remember that in 2004, the exit polls had an average error favoring the Democrats of about 5 or 6 points on the margin. In other words, if 2006 turns out like 2004, a 6 point lead may not be a lead." ttp://instapundit.com/archives2/2006/11/post_138.php
NROのTKSブログの選挙・現時点の評価 ttp://tks.nationalreview.com/ I think we're in for a late night, but still possibility of GOP pickups in Georgia 11/07 09:06 PM Well, as I posted elsewhere, the bad news for Republicans is, the wave that broke their way wasn’t enough to prevent close races. The good news is, it was enough to keep them in a lot of races; we may be in for a late night.
Some good signs in Florida - Foley’s seat looks good to stay GOP; they may keep Katherine Harris’ seat, which looked like it might be in trouble earlier. ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー Doing some math on those wacky exit polls 11/07 08:57 PM A lot of quiet on both sides - does this suggest a lot of nailbiters?
If VA is neck and neck, and the HuffPo exit polls had Allen down, what, five? If it's neck and neck in the real votes so far, we might be able to take two or three from the Dem column and put two or three in the GOP column. Good news in MO, maybe not enough in RI, NJ, MT, MD. Then again, wondering about absentee and early voting.
ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB116291623666915629.html?mod=election_special_coverage Then there's history: Since World War II, the party in control of the White House has lost an average of 31 House seats and six Senate seats in the second midterm election of a president's tenure in office. If history repeats itself tonight, Democrats would take over the House and Senate.
ttp://tks.nationalreview.com/ Midnight Update 11/08 12:10 AM Looking at the numbers, not inconcievable that the Democrats take the Senate. Based on the precints that are left, it is possible that the GOP could go 0 for Virginia, Tennessee, Montana and Missouri.
It is a good, good night for Democrats, a bad bad night for Republicans, and a brutal night for my predictions. It is a tushie-kicking from coast to coast.
All Ordinaries 5,425.100 12:10AM ET Down 31.600 (0.58%)↓オーストラリア Shanghai Composite 1,878.463 12:57AM ET Down 11.067 (0.59%)↓上海 Hang Seng 18,921.69 12:28AM ET Down 17.62 (0.09%)↓香港 BSE 30 13,106.77 1:28AM ET Down 49.89 (0.38%)↓インド Jakarta Composite 1,654.342 1:28AM ET Up 0.1901 (0.01%)↑インドネシア KLSE Composite 1,010.68 Nov 7Up 7.40 (0.74%) Nikkei 225 16,215.74 1:00AM ET Down 177.67 (1.08%)↓東京 NZSE 50 3,818.247 Nov 7Up 6.763 (0.18%) Straits Times 2,742.61 1:28AM ET Down 6.61 (0.24%)↓シンガポール Seoul Composite 1,380.07 1:02AM ET Down 7.37 (0.53%)↓韓国 Taiwan Weighted 7,178.34 12:46AM ET Down 6.31 (0.09%)↓台湾
Happy or suicidal with tonight's results, something colossal and profoundly important has happened in the United States beginning in 2000 ? the re-engagement of the American people with politics. We have had four enormously consequential elections in a row now in which voters have cast their ballots in numbers that we were told we'd never see in our lifetimes. I don't see how you can view this as anything but a wondrous development for the United States.
Whatever this election accomplished, it did nothing to end the rancor and distrust that define current American politics. Yet, as the campaign went on (and on) there was one issue on which people from both parties appeared to be finding common ground: Donald Rumsfeld has to go. ・・・・ ・・・・ There is absolutely nothing more for Mr. Rumsfeld to do as secretary of defense except continue to defend failed policies and tinker with unworkable strategies. Most of the men and women who will be part of the 110th Congress in January have come to that conclusion, whatever their party affiliation. They simply need to share it with President Bush.
But my theory is that, in an off-year election involving a party that has held power for a considerable period, the face of the in-power party is a combination of the national party and its local candidate; whereas the face of the out-of-power party is overwhelmingly the face of the local candidate. In most key Senate races, the Dems are presenting passable candidates, and even where they are not (e.g., New Jersey) the candidate seems to be at least holding his or her own.
ttp://www.slate.com/id/2153167/ Happy NightsWhy Democrats won for a change. By Bruce Reed Updated Wednesday, Nov. 8, 2006, at 12:03 AM ET
Slate:何故、民主党は変化を勝ち取ったのか?
In one sense, the answer to the first question is easy: Democrats never had a chance to blow this election because Republicans blew it first. ある意味で、答えは簡単、共和党が自爆したのだ。
But give Democrats credit. Apart from a foolish summer fling with Ned Lamont and a late Laugh-In cameo from John Kerry, Democrats did just about everything right and ran their best campaign in a decade. Field marshals Rahm Emanuel and Chuck Schumer ignored the virtual industry of self-help nonsense that has paralyzed Democrats' chattering classes and went back to a simple, proven formula: From the suburbs to the heartland, elections are won in the center. 民主党もケリーの失言やラモントの馬鹿騒ぎといったことはあるが、それ以外ではキャンペー ンは成功していて、郊外から中核地域へという単純で実績のある手法を使った。
Emanuel and Schumer went out of their way to recruit candidates that could put the party's best face forward in otherwise-hostile territory. 選挙戦略を立てたEmanuel と Schumerは民主党に優しくない地区で受け入れられるようなベ ストの人材をリクルートした。
Winners like Heath Shuler of North Carolina, Brad Ellsworth of Indiana, and Gabby Giffords of Arizona are straight out of centrist casting?candidates with broad appeal who have put Democrats back on the map in red districts that the party hasn't won in years. With mainstream Democratic candidates who weren't vulnerable on values and weren't afraid to hit back when attacked, Republican social issues were the wedge that didn't bite. 選挙で勝ったノースカロライナのHeath Shulerや、インディアナのBrad Ellsworth、あるいは アリゾナのGabby Giffordsなどは有権者の広い層に受け入れられる中間派である。共和党の支 持基盤である地区で、民主党が何年も勝利したことが無いような地域に受け入れられる人材を 投入した。
In fact, the best news of the 2006 elections is the opportunity it gives Democrats to earn the lasting support of the independents and disgruntled Republicans whose votes just dropped in our laps. 2006年中間選挙の最良のニュースは、民主党が中間派、独立層からの長続きする支持を得る機 会を得たことであろう。さらには不満を抱く共和党支持者を取り込むチャンスでもある。
<今日のマーケットの反応> それほど大きく反応しているわけではないような・・ ttp://online.wsj.com/home/us DJIA 12137.72 -19.05 -0.16% Nasdaq 2373.93 -1.95 -0.08% S&P 500 1381.07 -1.77 -0.13% ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー "The election result seems to be a little more dramatic than Wall Street was looking for," said Michael Panzner, vice president in sales trading at Collins Stewart. "There's no doubt that uncertainty adds to the jitters that we are seeing here." Collins StewartのMichael Panzner副社長は「中間選挙結果はウオール街の予想したよりは いくらかドラマティックなものだった。市場の迷いに見られるように、不確実性があること に疑いはない」
But some analysts said Wall Street will quickly move on to other concerns, such as the state of the economy. "I think by tomorrow we'll be focusing on other things," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak. The one certainty, he said, is that President Bush "will probably use his veto pen more in the next two years than in the last six" as gridlock grinds legislation to a halt. しかしウオール街の関心は経済の動向のほうに向いているようで「市場は、明日は別のこと に焦点を当てると思う」とMiller Tabakの株式ストラテジスト、Peter Boockvarがいう。 「ブッシュ大統領は今までに無く拒否権を使うのではないかと思う」
"No matter how those races are ultimately decided, policy implementation will be difficult given a Democrat House and a Republican President," wrote Dick Green, president of Briefing.com, in a note Wednesday. "Gridlock is likely, for better or for worse." Briefing.comのDick Greenは「選挙がどうなろうが、大統領と議会が分裂していれば政策の 実行は困難になる」と書いている。「良かれ悪しかれ、手詰まり状態が起きるだろう」 ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB116298938605717093.html?mod=home_whats_news_us
Our opponents will say that the American people rejected our Republican vision. I say the American people didn't quit on the Contract with America, we did. And in so doing, we severed the bonds of trust between our party and millions of our most ardent supporters. 野党はアメリカ国民が共和党のビジョンを拒否したというのだろうが、私はアメリカ国民が (ギングリッチの)「アメリカとの契約」を見限ったわけではないと主張したい。共和党は 支持者との約束を保証する為にも努力を傾ける。
As the 110th Congress convenes next year, Republicans must cordially accept defeat and dedicate ourselves to advancing our cause as the loyal opposition knowing that the only way to retake our natural, governing majority, is to renew our commitment to limited government, national defense, traditional values and reform. 来年の議会では共和党は今回の敗北を誠実に受け入れ、我々の大儀を掲げて過半数奪回に専 念しなくてはならない。共和党のコミットメントは小さな政府、国防、伝統価値の継承、そ して改革である。 ttp://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDdiYmE5ZWFmMGIxNzEwZjM0OTY4MGJlNDk2Y2FhMzQ= November 08, 2006 MIKE PENCE
ttp://online.wsj.com/home/us?refresh=on BREAKING NEWS: Donald Rumsfeld is expected to step down as defense secretary. Full story to follow shortly. WSJ:ブレーキングニュース:共和党関係者によればラムズフェルド国防長官が辞任へ
Officials said Robert Gates, former head of the CIA, would succeed Mr. Rumsfeld.
Mr. Gates is the president of Texas A&M University and a close friend of the Bush family. He served as CIA director for Mr. Bush's father from 1991 until 1993. Mr. Gates first joined the CIA in 1966 and served in the intelligence community for more than a quarter century, under six presidents. His nomination must be confirmed by the Senate. ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB116300840497717383.html?mod=election_special_coverage
コピペ 250 名前:****** sage New! 投稿日:2006/11/09(木) 03:28:34 Robert GatesとNorth Koreaでググッてみた
Clinton's dilemma was made even more complicated as the Republican hard-liners chimed in. Former president George H.W. Bush's national security adviser, Brent Scowcroft, and former CIA director Robert Gates argued that the United States should hurry to bomb the reprocessing plant, which if done quickly before the cooling rods were transferred to it would minimize the risk of radioactive fallout.
But Gates, who was also speculating that North Korea possessed two nuclear bombs already, didn't address the terrifying possibility of North Korean revenge on the South.
Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger came in with his own proposal that inadvertently undercut Scowcroft and Gates. Military action should only occur, he said, if the North refueled its reactor or started to reprocess the plutonium from the cooled rods. But he ignored Gates and Scowcroft's point about the dangers of bombardment on reprocessing facilities.
ttp://freekorea.us/?p=6124 (ワン・フリー・コリア) Thoughts (and Yours?) on the Mid-Term Elections November 8, 2006 at 10:48 am ・ Filed under America
On Korea policy, I tend to agree with Gordon Flake: I really don’t think it will make much of a difference. Nobody in Congress really seems to love either of the Koreas anymore. My impression from my various field trips to Congress was that some of the Dems were more hawkish than some of the Republicans, although the Republican staff made a far better impression for the depth of their knowledge and concern. If International Relations goes to Tom Lantos, I certainly won’t cry in my beer.
中間選挙の結果が朝鮮政策に大きな影響があるとは思わない。議会には南北朝鮮に関わって いる議員はいないように見える。私の議会関係者との接触の印象では、民主党の一部議員は 共和党の議員より鷹派である。もっとも共和党議員のほうが理解に深みがあるようだが。 トム・ラントス議員が上院国際関係委員会の委員長になるなら、後悔する事は無い。 (cry in one's beer:〈米俗〉悲しみにひたる、みじめな思いをする、後悔する)
The real winner of the night might be John McCain, particularly if the Senate (as appears likely) goes narrowly Democratic, and if, as I suspect, the Democrats allow themselves to look defeatist or ineffective. Politicians need something to run against in 2008. I think his stock and Guiliani’s have risen because of their crossover appeal; that would matter less to a Republican Party with an unchallenged majority. I’m sure he relishes watching the Dems run Congress for a while. It will be a good chance for him to rebuild his stature among conservatives.
My friends, this is time to make a choice. We have suffered a very large defeat tonight, and there is nothing now that we can do about that except decide on how we wish to face it.
We have to accept the fact that the conservatives we sent to Congress in 1994 became the bloated, earmarking, tone-deaf toads of 2006.
The Congress that the Republicans lost they lost because they abandoned the ideals that elected them in the first place. We must learn from our mistakes. We will have two years to do so.
And then, finally, let's act like the Americans we are, roll up our sleeves and start rebuilding. We who have survived Civil War, the Nazis and the Communists can probably manage to find a way to preserve the Republic in the face of Speaker Pelosi.
"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities." -- Winston Churchill
The Democrats by contrast have a huge opportunity to regain their standing as a national party. To seize that chance, they'll have to balance the demands of the antiwar left with the more moderate voices that helped them win control of the chamber. Pelosi has already warned her colleagues against rash moves, like trying to impeach the president, and told them they'll need to work with the White House. It won't be easy to keep everybody happy. ・・・・ In the end, Gingrich proved a useful foil for Clinton, who reinvigorated his presidency at Gingrich’s expense. Nancy Pelosi is no Newt Gingrich. She will have problems of her own managing the newly diverse Democratic coalition, and she doesn’t have the grandiose ambitions that propelled Gingrich to stride the national stage like a co-president. Her job is to put Bush on the spot, just like the voters.
AUSTIN BAY HAS SOME THOUGHTS ON RUMSFELD'S RESIGNATION, plus this more general observation:
The big race in 2006 was Lamont versus Lieberman. Joe Lieberman won. That’s a warning to Nancy Pelosi and Co. If they go “nutsroots-Lamont Left” they will squander their victory. Ed Driscoll suggests 2006 is a race-to-the center. Lieberman has carved out one the strongest personal political positions in America. For Joe, November lemonade from the lemons of August.
Joe Lieberman is this man. Nancy Pelosi had better pay attention.
Analysts said investors concluded that the election, while a distraction, will likely have little significant impact on Wall Street in the immediate future, as the prognosis for the next two years is gridlock between the two parties in power. The election "is probably not going to make a dramatic difference" to stocks, said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management. In fact, stocks could mount a rally soon, said the analyst, as "managers who sat on their hands worried about the election start to put extra money to work." 民主党の上下院支配は、直接的にビジネスに悪影響を及ぼさないと見る向きが・・・
Democrats have actually nominated more Iraq war veterans to Congress than have Republicans, including Tammy Duckworth, who is running in Illinois's 6th congressional district. Duckworth, who co-piloted a helicopter in Iraq, lost both her legs in a midair grenade attac
Jim Webb. Webb served in the Marine Corps in Vietnam, winning more combat decorations than any other member of his U.S. Naval Academy class. Webb's son has just shipped out to Iraq with the Marines himself. This may be one of the most hilariously ironic races in the country. National Democrats are slamming the incumbent Republican senator George Allen for his fondness for Confederate memorabilia.
(大幅に省略)
If the empowered Democrats succumb to their instincts to go the way of Michael Moore and MoveOn.org and Daily Kos, well then this will be the shortest-lived congressional victory since the Republicans' suicidal two-year ascendancy in 1947-49. But if they are smart enough and tough enough to break from their past bad instincts and give the Republicans a real tussle on the national security issue, then America's friends and foes abroad will be startled to discover that what happened last night was a sharp move toward the Democratic party--without any move at all to the political or ideological left.
Jusy for a record; 今回のアメリカ中間選挙については、全く予想外で、小生の予想はどうでも良いのだけれど アメリカ保守ブログの殆ど、RCPはじめ選挙情報サイトの多く、ウオール街の予想、イントレ ードの政治先物市場などが殆ど全て予想を外した。上院の民主党支配や下院のここまでの大量 議席獲得は予想できていない。
Tom DeLay and Curt Weldon should have left earlier, too. In the Senate, Conrad Burns should have been forced out. Had Ohio governor Bob Taft been pressured to resign early, a number of races there might have turned out differently. 下院のトム・ディレィ議員やコート・ウエルドン議員はもっと早期に辞職すべきであった。 上院のコンラッド・バーンズ議員も追放されるべきであった。オハイオ州のボブ・タフト 知事は層記事辞職の圧力がかけられるべきであった。そうした(汚職や腐敗を糾弾する) 事があれば結果は異なったかもしれない。
When it came to earmarks, or Social Security reform, or the Foley scandal, or lobbying reform, the Republican Congress seemed more interested in preserving its own power ? or sticking with dysfunctional Hill traditions ? than in the public good. The Senate inexplicably dropped the issue of judges. There will, and should, be changes in the Republican leadership now, starting with Denny Hastert’s departure. 共和党は社会保証の改革について、フォリー議員のスキャンダルについて、自己の権力の 維持に関心があって、あるいは議会の旧習に囚われて公益性を忘れていた。共和党の指導 体制に変更が必要であり、ダニー・ハスター議員の辞職から始められるべきである。
The Democrats face some tough choices themselves. One reason that they won was that they ran more conservative candidates, and especially cultural conservatives, than they have run in many years. If those Democrats are neatly folded into a Pelosi party, they won’t hold their seats. 民主党は今後、困難な問題を抱える。民主党は従来にない保守的傾向の候補者を擁立・当選 させた。それは民主党の伝統から見て文化的に保守系の人たちなのである。民主党がペロシ 下院議長の(左派の)党になれば、彼らは民主党議員に留まることが難しいだろう。
We will not pretend to have any detailed plan for conservatives to move forward just now. But it may be worthwhile to state the obvious, since Republicans in Washington have been quite accomplished in ignoring it. President Bush will have to figure out a way to salvage a failing Iraq policy, and congressional Republicans will have to come up with a reason for holding office beyond the perks they will no longer enjoy. 現時点で共和党を前進させる詳細な計画を有していると言うつもりは無いが、幾つかの明確な 事項を述べておくことは無駄ではないはずである。ワシントンの共和党政治家はこれまでそう いう事項を無視してきたからだ。ブッシュ大統領は失敗しているイラク政策を回復するべく戦 わねばならないだろうし、議会の共和党議員らは議会で何をなすのかを明確にする必要があろ う。
民主党は有権者のフラストレーションを利用する上で、民主党のアジェンダを提示する必要 が無かった。このやり方は選挙キャンペーンでは通用したが、議会多数派の地位を得た現在 民主党が如何にその権力を使うのかに疑問が残る。マイノリティ党派でいる限りにおいては 「ブッシュの戦争」を非難して、大統領を弾劾するとか叫んで運動を活性化させていても責 任を問われることは無いが、今や民主党は議会を統治する立場である。ペロシ下院議長につ いていえば、これは議会の委員会の殆どを占めるであろう偉大な社会派のリベラルがどの程 度まで変化を望むかを決めなくてはいけないという事である。Henry Waxman, David Obey, Pete Stark, Ed Markey, John Conyers, Barney Frank、らの諸氏はカーターやクリントン 時代の政策を誤らせた60年代政治家の子息たちである。
彼らは民主党の中核を代表するのだが、中間選挙で民主党を15議席以上の過半数獲得に導い た有権者の期待を代表してはいない。民主党が2008年やそれ以降の過半数を維持するために は、ペンシルバニア東部地区でプロ軍事の主張を持つ退役軍人のAdmiral Joe Sestakの得た 議席や、ノースカロライナでプロ・ライフ、アンチ・ガン・コントロールの主張をしている Heath Shuleの得た議席をも維持しなくてはならない。
However a senior official at the Directorate General of Shipping said: "They have told us that because it is a new ship they were testing it. But it is strange that they should need to sail as far as Iran."
"We will strive to realize a shift by foreign investors away from simple processing, assembly and low-level manufacturing and into research and development, high-end design, modern logistics and other new areas," an unnamed commission official said in a statement accompanying the plan. "This will help our country become one of the world's manufacturing bases for high value-added products." 「新政策は中国への外資導入を、単純な製造業、組み立て業などから研究開発やハイエンドの デザイン、近代的なロジスティクスなどの新分野に向かわせる」「この政策は中国を世界の付 加価値の高い製造拠点に向かわせるものである」
2年前に、ブレジンスキーと(新国防長官の)ロバート・ゲーツの取りまとめたイラン政策 への分析と提言の文書(PDF、100ページ)一部分を抜粋しておくと: ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー ASSESSMENTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The United States’ long lack of direct contact with, and presence in, Iran drastically impedes its understanding of Iran’s domestic, as well as regional, dynamics. In turn, this reduces Washington’s influence across the Middle East in ways that are manifestly harmful to its ultimate interests. Direct dialogue approached candidly and without restrictions on issues of mutual concern would serve Iran’s interests. And establishing connections with Iranian society would directly benefit U.S. national objectives of enhancing the stability and security of this critical region.
Dialogue between the United States and Iran need not await absolute harmony between the two governments.Throughout history, Washington has maintained cordial and constructive relations with regimes whose policies and philosophies have differed significantly from its own, including, above all, in its relationship with the Soviet Union. By its very definition, diplomacy seeks to address issues between nations, and so it would be unwise (and unrealistic) to defer contact with Tehran until all differences between the two governments have evaporated.(中略)
For these reasons, we advocate that Washington propose a compartmentalized process of dialogue, confidence building, and incremental engagement. The United States should identify the discrete set of issues on which critical U.S. and Iranian interests converge and must be prepared to try to make progress along separate tracks, even while considerable differences remain in other areas.(後略) ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー Iran:Time for a New Approach Report of an Independent Task Force Sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations Zbigniew Brzezinski and Robert M. Gates, Co-Chairs Suzanne Maloney, Project Director ttp://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Iran_TF.pdf
Robert Gates (currently president of Texas A&M University) has worked with James Baker on the “War on Terror” strategy evaluation. The Baker ”bi-partisan” political fall-back position for prosecuting the war was already in the works.
Sources close to the latest group of four North Korean refugees to land in Thailand say the smuggling fee is about US$5,000 per person, but that it can be as high as $13,000 if the asylum seeker in question is a government official or otherwise deemed to be important person. He-shim, Su-ok, He-yong and Chol-yong all have elder kin who have already fled North Korea and been resettled in South Korea. And although the child refugees are reluctant to explain exactly how their passage was organized, it is most likely that their relatives paid Chinese traffickers in advance.
Smuggling fees include transportation, food and accommodation in safe houses along the way - and allegedly bribes for Chinese police who ensure safe passage. Nearly all North Korean refugees enter China illegally without passports and visas, and few carry any documentation that might reveal their true identities.
Among those expected to hand in resignation letters is the Pentagon's top intelligence official, Under Secretary of Defense Steve Cambone, a close Rumsfeld associate and a key architect in planning for the Iraq war and the War on Terror.
The most important figure at the moment may be a man who comes from neither party's leadership. Former Secretary of State James Baker, an old Bush family friend, is heading a bipartisan task force that is expected soon to issue recommendations for future U.S. policy in Iraq. Mr. Bush has said he plans to take seriously the proposals of the task force, which is co-chaired by former Rep. Lee Hamilton, a Democrat. The president yesterday said he plans to meet with task force members next week.
"I predict that the vehicle for a change in Iraq policy will be the Baker-Hamilton commission. It gives Bush a way of saving face," says Democratic Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware. In a Democratic Senate, Mr. Biden becomes chairman of its Foreign Relations Committee. "You have to give Bush a way out, because if you back him into a corner, he gets too blindly stubborn to change course," he says.
The Bush administration in recent weeks has -- very much in secret -- begun to ask itself the unutterable question: Is the Iraq strategy working? Can we achieve our goals with the tools we have? If not, how do we adjust the tools and goals so that they fit? ・・・ Rumsfeld's gift was his brilliance and intellectual toughness. He kept his head up, even as the war in Iraq went from bad to awful. In that, he was a harder man even than one of his predecessors, Robert McNamara, who in his final year running the Vietnam War began to crack privately under the pressure. Rumsfeld embodied the prep school injunction: Never let them see you sweat. But the downside with Rumsfeld was so great that few people are likely to remember the upside. ・・・ Gates will bring something else to the table, and it may be a crucial factor in the months ahead. He came back into the Bush administration's spotlight because of his work as a member of the Iraq Study Group, headed by Bush 41 Secretary of State James A. Baker III and former Rep. Lee Hamilton. Gates embodies the group's effort to find a bipartisan policy for Iraq. In that sense, he will go to the Pentagon with an invisible mission statement that can be summed up in two words: "Exit Strategy.'' He won't want to leave Iraq quickly or dangerously, but unlike Rumsfeld, he won't fight the problem. ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー イグナチウスらしい冷静な観察。ゲーツ国防長官起用とイラク政策の変更は、その重要性に 比べて、少なくとも今現在は充分に報道されず、解説や解析が為されていないと思ふ。社説 に取り上げた読売のセンスは良いのだけれど内容は食いたり無い。この事件の持つ意味はも っと大きなものがあると思ふ。
No one knows exactly what the Iraq commission will recommend. Lawrence Korb and other analysts say there is not a lot of room for maneuver short of abandoning the strategic goals of bringing democracy and stability to Iraq. No one expects that. But he says the commission is expected to recommend an acceleration of the handover of responsibility to the Iraqi government, and a substantial reduction of U.S. forces in Iraq starting next year.
"What that will do is basically send a signal to the Iraqis that they've got to make the painful political compromises necessary to create an Iraq the people are willing to support and fight and die for," he said. 「基本的に起きるであろうことは、イラク政府に対して、彼らイラクの政治家がイラクの国 民が支持してそのために戦うようなイラクを作るべく必要な妥協をしなくてはならないという シグナルを送ることだろう」 ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー ベーカーコミッションが勧告を出すこと、ゲーツ国防長官がその勧告を出すグループに関わ っていてイラクの自立を促進する方向性が出てくるであろうことが予想されている事以外に 余り明確な決定事項は無い。シリアやイランとの対話再開という憶測はあるけれど、これは 確認されたことではないし、実現してもその内容がどの程度になるかは未知。
Most Dem leaders realize that, with just a few missteps, Iraq could become their debacle. Their problem is that they never formulated a serious plan for Iraq. All rhetoric and no specifics, they just ran against the administration's bungling. And Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's long-overdue resignation yesterday robbed them of an obvious target. Now they have to deliver - or at least appear to be trying. 殆どの民主党の指導者は、イラクで幾つかの誤りがあったので、それが争点につかえるという のだけれど、民主党の問題点は彼らが一度もイラクについて真剣な計画を提案していないこと である。レトリックばかりで具体的詳細が何も無い。彼らは政府のやることに反対しているだ けである。ラムズフェルド国防長官の辞任は長らく懸案であったもので、昨日それが起こった ために民主党の絶好の攻撃目標がなくなってしまった。民主党は(議会多数派として)いまや 政策提案しなくてはいけない。
It's going to be hard. The political aim of the Democrats will be to continue talking a good game while avoiding responsibility through '08. They'll send up bills they know Bush will veto. And they'll struggle to hide the infighting in their own ranks - Dem unity on this war is about as solid as the unity of Iraq. 民主党にとってイラク政策提案は難しいものであろう。民主党の政治信条は08年の大統領選挙 までは責任を回避しながら議論を続けるというゲームを行なうことである。民主党はブッシュ 大統領が拒否権を発動することが確実な法案を決めるであろう。そして彼らは内部の闘争を覆 い隠す為に苦心することだろう。民主党のこの戦争への団結の具合ときたら、イラクの国内の 団結の具合と同じ程度のものである。
For the next two years, the go-to guy in the national-security field is going to be Sen. John McCain. He's now the real "decider," positioned to serve either as the brakeman on the administration's runaway train or as the switchman in the political yard if the Dems get a rational policy on track. 今後の二年間は、国防政策に重要な影響を与えるのはマケイン上院議員である。彼は今や真の 意思決定者なのだ。政府の政策の行き過ぎにブレーキをかけるとか、民主党がもしも合理的な 政策を出してきた場合のスイッチマンとして働く。
McCain's in a much stronger position than he was a few days ago - the Republican nomination is now his. The midterm elections were a repudiation not only of the administration's non- strategy in Iraq, but of the small-but- vocal Taliban wing of the Republican Party - the anti-science, woman-fearing inquisitors. They hoped to block McCain's nomination. Now, from Pennsylvania to Missouri, they're the walking dead in the political landscape. マケイン上院議員は数日前に比べてより強力な立場にあり、共和党の次期大統領候補は今や 彼である。中間選挙によって、政府の従来のイラク政策が拒否されただけでなく、共和党内 部の少数だが煩いタリバン連中をも拒否された。非科学的で女性恐怖症の宗教裁判官たちで ある。彼らはマケイン上院議員の大統領候補指名を阻もうとしてきた。今やペンシルバニア からミズリーまで、彼らは生ける屍である。
The Democratic win does bring us two benefits regarding Iraq. First, it means public accountability, something every administration, Republican or Democrat, needs. Second, it sends a message to the gang of looters atop Iraq's government that the free lunch won't last forever, that they've got to get serious about leading their country. 民主党の中間選挙勝利でイラクに関して二つの良い事が起こった。第一に政府に対して国民 への説明責任を明確にした。第二には、イラク政府のトップレベルにいる泥棒ギャングたち にメッセージを送って、アメリカにただ乗りすることは長続きしないので、彼らは自国の統 治に対して真剣になる必要がある、としたことである。
Of course, the Iraqis may scramble even more wildly to ingratiate themselves with sectarian factions and steal what's left to steal before we leave. Never underestimate the Arab genius for self-destruction. ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー スパイスが良く効いていて、読んでいて面白い。
If we had to pick the precise moment when House Republicans lost their way, it would be three years ago during the floor vote over the Medicare prescription drug bill. 共和党が方向性を見失った時期を言うなら、3年前にメディケア法案を下院で審議した時点 というべきであろう。
Here's one telling exit poll result: In battleground districts, only one in five voters said Republicans would do a better job to "keep government spending under control"; almost twice as many voters said Democrats would do a better job. 出口調査のデータに見るべきものがある。激戦区の出口調査データでは僅かに5人に一人 だけが共和党が「政府支出の最小化に貢献」していると答えた。民主党のそれを評価する 声は殆ど2倍である。
Republicans might also recall what happened to Democrats when they tried to regain the House in 1996 by running with the same leadership and agenda that had been ousted in 1994. Those Democrats failed, despite Bill Clinton's victory at the top of the ticket, because too many voters saw the same old story. If Republicans lose again in 2008, they could be in the minority for a long time. 民主党が1994年に選挙で敗退して、指導者を変更せずにそのまま1996年の選挙に臨んで敗退 していることを思いだすべきである。96年の選挙ではビル・クリントンの勝利にもかかわら ず民主党は敗退したのだが、有権者が昔のままだと判断した為である。もしも共和党が2008 年にも敗退すれば、過半数獲得はずいぶん遠のくことになろう。
The good news is that a younger generation does seem to be stepping forward. Mike Pence, of Indiana, has already declared for minority leader, and John Shadegg of Arizona is seeking the number two job as whip. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, Jeb Hensarling of Texas and Jeff Flake of Arizona (see his essay nearby) are among the other Members who have tried to put ideas above mere incumbency. Republican Members will make up their own minds, but their willingness to consider new leadership will say a lot about the lessons they've learned from this week's drubbing. 共和党にとって良いニュースは若い世代が前に出てきたことで、インディアナのMike Penceは 議会指導者に立候補している。アリゾナのJohn ShadeggはNo2の地位を目指してる。ウイス コンシンのPaul RyanやテキサスのJeb Hensarling、アリゾナのJeff Flakeなどは在任期間が 短いにもかかわらずアイデアを出してきている。共和党の新しい指導者を考えることは重要で あるし、今回の選挙の敗北について教訓を学ぶことが多くあろう。
Too many Republicans were corrupted and seduced by power and forgot why voters sent them to Washington. Winning back the majority requires new faces of leadership far removed from this year's debacle. 余りにも多くの共和党政治家が有権者のことを忘れ、権力の誘惑におぼれて腐敗している。 共和党が議会多数派を再度獲得する為には新しい指導者が必要である。
>>159 Gowadia, in custody without bail since October 2005, allegedly provided the PRC with the nozzle design, one that would make a missle “less susceptible to detection and interception,” Justice said in a statement. A federal superseding indictment, filed in addition to an earlier list of charges brought a year ago, indicates Gowadia allegedly received $110,000 from the PRC, and that he allegedly bought real property as part of an effort to launder the funds. 容疑者のGowadiaは(ステルス技術の)ミサイルのノズルの設計手法を提供、中国から11万ドル を得ていた。
Gowadia spent 18 years, from 1968 to 1986, with what was then known as the Northrop Corp., now Northrop Grumman, where he was a design engineer on the B-2 Spirit bomber, according to a 2005 FBI affidavit. Gowadiaは1968-86年にノースロップ社でB2の設計に関わっていた
The indictment alleges that Gowadia received $110,000 from the PRC; the 2005 criminal complaint indictment prepared by the FBI said that while Gowadia’s firm reported “nearly $750,000 in gross receipts between 1999 and 2003,” that figure might be “significantly greater,” since Gowadia “likely maintains several bank accounts, some of which are foreign and unreported.” 容疑者が受け取った金額で明確になっているのは11万ドルであるが容疑者の個人会社は1999-03 に75万ドルを得ており、秘密に入手した金額は遥かに大きい可能性があるとFBIが言っている ttp://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=2347184&C=america
So what now? The first order of business is fresh leadership. Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., has announced for House Minority Leader. (ry
On the Senate side, nothing would better demonstrate a new GOP commitment to its conservative principles than the promotion of Sen. Tom Coburn, R-Okla.,(ry
Coburn has some rough edges, to be sure, and Old Bulls like Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, and Trent Lott, R-Mo., have fought him at every turn. But listening to Old Bulls in great part is what got the GOP in its present straits.
The US election has deprived the Bush administration of much of its bargaining power on North Korea, just as it did on Iraq, as all participants in the six-party process are aware, even if no one in the US administration or the newly formed Congress wants to talk about it, certainly not in those terms.
>>178 まあJFKは若さと、劇的な暗殺というファクターが神話を作ったわけで実績は余り・・ Kennedy's assassination is considered to be a defining moment in U.S. history due to its traumatic impact on the nation as well as on the political history of the ensuing decades, his subsequent branding as an icon for a new generation of Americans(ry ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_F._Kennedy
1.5 Presidency * 1.5.1 Foreign policies o 1.5.1.1 Cuba and the Bay of Pigs Scandal o 1.5.1.2 Cuban Missile Crisis o 1.5.1.3 Latin America and Communism o 1.5.1.4 Peace Corps o 1.5.1.5 Vietnam o 1.5.1.6 West Berlin Speech o 1.5.1.7 Nuclear Test Ban Treaty o 1.5.1.8 Ireland * 1.5.2 Domestic policies o 1.5.2.1 Civil rights * 1.5.3 Space progra
HO CHI MINH CITY, Vietnam -- Intel Corp. confirmed Friday it will more than triple its initial investment in Vietnam to $1 billion, dramatically expanding the size of a chip assembly and testing plant that it is building in the country's southern business hub. インテルはベトナムへの最初の投資を計画の三倍増の10億ドルとし、ベトナム南部のチップ 製造・検査工場の規模を劇的に拡大する。
Friday's announcement comes the same week that the World Trade Organization accepted Vietnam and a week before Hanoi hosts the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, which will draw leaders from 21 Pacific Rim economies, including President Bush. APEC will also draw hundreds of corporate leaders from around the world for a CEOs summit. この発表はWTOがベトナムの加盟を受け入れ、ハノイでAPECサミットの行なわれる歴史的な 週に先立って行なわれた。ハノイAPECはブッシュ大統領はじめ各国愉能が参加する。
Within the next few months the Democrats will have to decide whether they care more about fiscal discipline or shovelling money at ordinary Americans. That decision will set the budgetary tone for the next two years.
Overall, Ms Pelosi and her generals are unlikely to do anything radical. That is partly because Mr Bush’s veto pen limits their room for manoeuvre, but mainly because the new House chieftains do not see themselves as revolutionaries. Their goal, after all, is not to enact a specific agenda, but to prepare the ground for the presidential election of 2008.
CNET:Wiiで、ニンテンドー・サプライズ? かも ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー PS3の記事が出はじめているのだけれど、むしろ一部にはWiiの革新性を評価する記事が。 Even with the approximately 4 million Wii consoles expected to become available worldwide after the mid-November launch, Nintendo predicts that the systems will soon become scarce.
With so much at stake, the game console market has turned into quite the show-- and may turn out to be the most interesting tech story for the remainder of this year.
<ダラスFRB エコノミック・レター> ttp://dallasfed.org/research/eclett/2006/el0609.html Economic Letter?Insights from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Vol. 1, No. 9 September 2006 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Globalization’s Effect on Interest Rates and the Yield Curve by Tao Wu
Globalization’s influence on inflation isn’t limited to money and financial markets. Increased international competition in product and labor markets has also contributed to price stability. With goods, services and information crossing borders more readily than ever, producers are forced to match foreign competitors’ prices and quality by increasing productivity and decreasing costs. Greater factor mobility has also helped lower costs and inflation around the world because it allows labor and capital to flow more freely toward centers of comparative advantage, where they can be their most productive.
Globalization has reduced long-term interest rates and made long-term lending instruments more substitutable internationally. It has done so in three ways: by reducing the level and volatility of inflation across many nations, by helping stabilize the business cycle and reduce investors’ uncertainty regarding future economic shocks, and by encouraging the development of deeper, more integrated global financial markets that help direct loanable funds into a common pool. The upshot is a higher interest elasticity of bond demand than existed in yesterday’s more insular world.
このため、一国の金利操作は遥かにその効力が弱くなった Consequently, the effects of monetary policy tightening or loosening may be substantially weakened.
"According to Chairman Bernanke, the world has a 'savings glut' and we all know that in the end investment must equal savings, which means that we may also be experiencing an 'investment glut.' Furthermore, China has a very small domestic consumer market, incapable of absorbing such a fast increase in production," he writes. "Thus, it depends on consumption from the rest of the world, its undervalued exchange rate, as well as its low labor costs to maintain its current growth rates. And all these could produce a world-wide 'production glut' that could lead to a major world-wide crisis in the future." (glut:【名】供給過剰、数量が過度に多いこと、満腹)
>>186 >(そして日本)悪口を書かせると英国系メディアは生き生きして だが今週は「安倍首相は見かけより改革志向が強く、日本経済の成長は見かけより確実だ」と Japan's economy Pitching for growth Nov 9th 2006 | TOKYO From The Economist print edition Shinzo Abe―and the economy―may be more vigorous than they look ttp://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8139932
Michigan voters showed common sense in passing the proposal over the demagogic objections of special interests such as women's groups and minority contractors, who outspent proponents of the measure three to one and ran ads depicting it as a disaster on par with 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina.
Evangelical leaders blamed corruption and big spending by Congress ? rather than the party's positions on social issues such as same-sex marriage ? for the GOP's defeat.
Evangelical Christians are "fed up with the Republican leadership, particularly in the House," said the Rev. Richard Land, head of the public policy arm of the 16 million -member Southern Baptist Convention. "They're disgusted that Republicans came to Washington and failed to behave any better than Democrats once they got their snouts in the trough." ttp://www.spokesmanreview.com/nation_world/story.asp?ID=159232
The world's largest auto maker said one of the new models, the Cadillac Seville Luxury Sedan, also known as the SLS, will be priced between 500,000 yuan and 750,000 yuan ($63,641 to $95,461). ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー 700万円〜1000万円クラスのキャディラックSLSを売るという。小型車で勝負するよりは いかにもアメリカ的なキャディラックのほうが、中国では受けるかも(?)
Luxury car sales in China rose 24.5% in the first eight months of the year, and annual demand for high-end passenger sedans is expected to reach 300,000 units by 2010, the statement said. 高級車の市場は年率24.5%で急速に伸びて2010年に30万台という予測なので、マジに良い 市場と思われ。その証拠に、
Rolls-Royce said in a report Thursday that China has become the auto maker's No. 3 market after the U.S. and Britain, ロールスロイスが売れている国は米国、英国について中国が三番目・・・
Good stuff, from a reader: おもすろい、読者からの報告が: They had to run that clip because the much of the rest of his speech was an absolute riot. 彼の演説の後半部分は聴衆が殆ど混乱状態になってしまった
He started off by mentioning that "tomorrow is an extremely important day for America," and the crowd went wild, thinking he was talking about taking power. But of course, he launched into his praise of the Marine Corps, and the crowd cheered a little less loudly. Then he thanked all the brave veterans and brave men still fighting, and the crowd cheered a little less loudly again. 彼は「明日(退役軍人の日)はアメリカにとって、とても重要な日だ」と話し始めた。それで 聴衆が騒ぎ始めた。何を始める気なのかと想像し始めたのだが、彼は海兵隊を賞賛した。それ で、聴衆の歓声は少し静まった。ついで彼はすべての勇敢な退役軍人や現役で戦場にいる勇敢 な兵士らを賞賛した。再度、聴衆が静まった。
Then he mentioned that he received a call from Sen. Allen, and the crowd went nuts again. Then he mentioned how pleasant and dignified Allen was, and the crowd grew quiet. Then he said he was having lunch next week with Allen ? and the crowd was dead silent. Finally he told the audience that they should all thank Sen./Gov. Allen for his many years of dedicated service to the people of Virginia ? and you could almost hear the people gathered looking at each other asking, "What the $#@! did we just do?" It was priceless. そのあとで彼はジョージ・アレンが電話してきたことに触れたので、聴衆がまたもやおかしく なってしまった。彼はアレンが気持ちのよい、尊敬すべき人だといい、聴衆が沈黙した。彼は 来週、アレンと昼食を共にする予定だと延べ、聴衆が静まりかえった。最後に彼は人々が、か ってのバージニア州の知事であり、上院議員であったアレンの貢献に感謝すべきだと述べた。 それで、聴衆はお互いに顔を見合わせて「一体我々は、どういう人を民主党上院議員に選んだ というのだろう $#@!」と尋ね始める有様だった。これは見るに、プライスレスの価値があった。 ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー 共和党の有名な上院議員、ジョージ・アレンを打ち破った、殆ど無名だった民主党のウェッブ は、ある意味で今回の中間選挙のハイライトで、上院の過半数をもたらした英雄なのだけれど リベラルと言うよりは保守派で、ベトナム参戦経験があり、息子がイラクで海兵隊にいるとい う、一風変わった民主党の上院議員。そういう背景を解っていないリベラルの選挙キャンペー ンの連中が、勝利演説でウェッブの正体を知って「一体我々は、どういう人を民主党上院議員 に選んだというのだろう $#@!」となったという話。良くも悪くも今回の中間選挙を象徴するよ うな食い違いを示す出来事のような。(イラク反戦左派の期待の英雄が、イラクの海兵隊員の 賞賛をするという・・・)
ttp://msnbc.msn.com/id/15661052/site/newsweek/ Pragmatism or Principle? What does the rise of the Democrats mean for U.S.-China relations? Get ready for an anti-China backlash. By Melinda Liu Newsweek
Nancy Pelosi, in those days merely a member of the rank-and-file in the U.S. Congress, was one of China’s most vocal critics. She blasted Beijing for its human-rights record, opposed giving China most-favored-nation trading status for a decade and argued against allowing Beijing to host the 2000 Summer Olympics. In 1991, she and two congressional colleagues held a demonstration in Tiananmen Square, unfurling a banner reading: “To those who died for democracy.”
Has Pelosi, now poised to become the influential Speaker of the House of Representatives, changed too? Beijing’s leaders hope so. But they fear that Pelosi will bring a new toughness to relations with China, intensifying frictions over everything from trade and the strength of China’s currency, to intellectual-property rights, human rights and Pyongyang’s nuclear program. “It will of course bring about some negative impact in the field of trade and business between China and America,” says Prof. Guo Xiangang of the China Institute for International Studies. “We also understand that she has good political relations with Taiwan.” 今や下院議長になろうというペロシ議員は、昔とは変わっているのか?北京の指導者はそう望 むのであろうが、ペロシ議員が米中関係に緊張を持ち込むのではとの懸念も。中国の通貨問題、 知的所有権問題、人権問題、北朝鮮の核問題などがある。中国研究機関のGuo Xiangang教授は 「もちろん、民主党の台頭で米中通商問題の、何らかのネガティブな影響があると予測される」 という。「それに彼女は台湾との良い政治的関係を持っている」
There’s already talk from Democrats about tougher trade measures. “I don't think the administration has taken up any issue with the Chinese,” New York Rep. Charles Rangel, who is expected to become chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, told U.S. reporters Wednesday. “We should insist if they’re going to trade with us it’s going to be fair trade.” With the U.S. trade deficit vis-a-vis China hitting a record $23 billion in September, Rangel told a Wall Street Journal reporter that the United States should “be as angry as hell and try to protect American industry.”
Beijing nevertheless will be watching closely for signs of a backlash in U.S. opinion toward what some see as China’s neocolonialism. It may already have begun in Africa. Earlier this year, anti-Chinese riots broke out among copper-mine workers protesting poor salaries and working conditions at the Chambishi mine in Zambia. The issue of Chinese exploitation was a theme during Zambia’s Sept. 28 elections, when opposition candidate Michael Sata criticized Chinese business practices and promised to restore ties with Taiwan if he were elected. 中国はアメリカの反中感情を注意深く観察してる。一部の意見は中国のアフリカ政策を新植民 地主義だという。ザンビアの鉱山で低賃金で働く労働者の暴動が起こっている。これは9月28日 のザンビアの占拠に絡んで問題化し野党のMichael Sata候補が中国を批判した。彼は中国流の 商売を批判し、台湾との国交回復を公約に上げていた。Sata候補は選挙に敗れたが地元住民に 杜松居た中国への疑念は消えない。この事件は中国のアナリストに教訓を与えた。「政治家は 自分の選挙の為に中国への反感を煽って利用することが出来る」中国はアメリカとの間でアメ リカの$228Bの貿易赤字の問題を抱えている。そして、アメリカは2008年に大統領選挙が控え ている。
More interesting on the lesson front, Mr. Schumer says he's convinced that, now his party is back in control--"and having the majority is difficult"--it can't afford to simply be seen as obstructing President Bush. That would be a dramatic change from the past six years, and in particular from the last round of Democratic leadership, when Tom Daschle turned the Senate into a legislative graveyard.
"There are going to be issues where we want to work together, and issues when we think [President Bush] is wrong and we shouldn't just roll over.
"But I will tell you this: If we are seen as just blocking the president, it will not serve us well in 2008."
"Democrats, having been in the wilderness so long, are willing to make more compromises for the common good. And we have a group of issues, what we call meat-and-potato issues, that unify the whole party." (中略)
Savvy Mr. Schumer realizes the stakes. "I believe there are certain times when the public is up for grabs, and the party that creates a paradigm that wins them over will have them for a generation: 1932 was one, when the Democrats did it; 1980 was one, when the Republicans did it. And 2008 is going to be another one. So what we can do between then and now to show the public what we believe in and what we want to do . . . will make a big difference." ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー かなり面白い、長文のインタビュー記事だけれど、翻訳しない。これはChuck Schumerの人物像 を感じる記事であるので、興味ある向きは原文で読むべき。とても戦略&戦術の思考に長けた 人のような。英国の労働党を政権与党に押し上げた戦略設計者はピーター・マンデルセン (このしとは大変毀誉褒貶の多い人)だけれど、それに近い立場鴨。しかしマンデルセンの ような嫌味は少なく、より常識人にも見える。
>>202 「南部のレッドネック(首が日焼けした白人労働者)が象徴する文化は、政府の力で社会を 改造せんとする左翼と文化マルクス主義者の企ての最大の障害である。」 「政府介入派左翼の立場から見れば、レッドネックこそ、政治的正しさの勅令のように アメリカ社会を集団主義的に飼い馴らすうえでの最大の障害である。過去50年間、 左翼はレッドネックがアメリカの未来の成長に影響を与えられないように、訴訟・立法・ マスコミを用いて変人として孤立させ、その伝統を公然と辱めてきた。」 ウェッブ著 Born Fighting: How the Scots-Irish Shaped America (生まれながらの戦士―スコットランド・北アイルランド系国民のアメリカへの影響) New York: Broadway Books, 2004.
#今後の言動が楽しみなことです。 ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー "He was the ultimate outside candidate," said Mark Rozell, a politics professor at George Mason University. "The trouble is, an outsider can run successful campaigns running against Washington, running against incumbents, but once elected they have to learn the task of government and taking responsibility of governing."’(WaPo)
"The profile of corruption in the exit polls was bigger than I'd expected," Rove tells TIME. "Abramoff, lobbying, Foley and Haggard [the disgraced evangelical leader] added to the general distaste that people have for all things Washington, and it just reached critical mass."
The Republican National Committee has been pointing out that a small shift in votes would have made a big difference. A shift of 77,611 votes would have given Republicans control of the House, according to Bush's political team. And a shift of 2,847 votes in Montana, or 7,217 votes in Virginia, or 41,537 votes in Missouri would have given a Republicans control of the Senate. In addition, the party has calculated that the winner received 51 percent or less in 35 contests, and that 23 races were decided by two percentage points or fewer, 18 races were decided by fewer than 5,000 votes, 15 races were decided by fewer than 4,000 votes, 10 races were decided by fewer than 3,000 votes, eight were decided by fewer than 2,000 votes and five races were decided by fewer than 1,000 votes.
However, I think that one only has to understand what Hamilton refered to as the “Ignorant Masses” and their susceptibility to the old media’s influence to identify one of the greatest contributing factors to Republican losses. I’ve encountered a lot of people in my travels and I must say that I find it depressing how astonishingly ignorant most are in regards to all things political. I also find it amazing how readily these people parrot conventional wisdoms and cliches created by the mainstream media regardless of any factual basis. *** ttp://powerlineblog.com/archives/015870.php
"The big impact on the presidential race is that it is good news for McCain and Giuliani. The Republicans will now be afraid to choose an unknown or someone who is too far to the right," said Mr Luntz. 共和党の選挙アナリストであるLuntz氏は「中間選挙は大きなインパクトがあって、マケイ ン上院議員とジュリアーニ前NYC市長に朗報だ。共和党は、今では未知の新人とか、余りに 右より過ぎる候補を立てることには警戒的だ」という。
For the Democrats, Senators Clinton and Obama top the polls, in that order. Ms Clinton still has better name recognition but the half-Kenyan, half-Kansan senator for Illinois is catching up fast. The latest instalment of his autobiography, The Audacity of Hope, is a publishing sensation, having sold 182,000 copies bythe middle of October. 民主党ではクリントン上院議員とオバマ上院議員が世論調査のトップを走っている。ヒラリー クリントンは知名度ではトップであるがケニア人とカンサス人の混血であるイリノイ州の上院 議員、オバマ氏は急速にキャッチアップしている。最近出版された自叙伝、Audacity of Hope はセンセーションを巻き起こし、10月半ばまでに18.2万部を売っている。
"Of the 11 states decided by less than 5% in 2004, nine of them now have Democratic governors," said Professor Schaller, the author of Whistling Past Dixie: How Democrats Can Win Without the South. 「南部の支持なしに、いかにして民主党は大統領選挙に勝つか」を書いたSchaller教授は、 「2004年大統領選挙では11の州は5%以下の差しかなかったが、其中の9つの州が中間選挙の後 では民主党の知事をもつ」と指摘する。
"It gives Democrats a useful set of surrogates. It helps when you're building a field campaign. It helps when you are fundraising. And when you have the secretaries of states in the states, there is less chance of shenanigans by the other side at election time." 「その事実は選挙戦に有利で、キャンペーン活動をやりやすくする。資金集めにも有効である。 知事が民主党ならば、選挙のときに共和党の不正行為はやりにくくなる」
Phew, I'm glad those elections are over . . . (pause for four seconds). Now we can focus on obsessing about the results and extrapolating their meaning over two long years to predict who will win the presidency in 2008. いやはや、中間選挙が終わった(4秒休止)そこで、今後2年間の大統領選挙に向けての さまざまの議論が始まるわけだ。
民主党はどうかといえば We know what winning Democrats look like: Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. Carter is the last Democrat to receive more than 50 percent of the popular vote, in 1976, and Clinton is the only Democrat to win election twice since Franklin D. Roosevelt. Former Virginia governor Mark R. Warner looked most like Carter and Clinton. But he dropped out -- to sighs of relief from Republicans everywhere. 民主党で選挙に勝てる人材といえば、クリントン(夫)とジミー・カーターだけだった。 カーターは50%以上の一般支持率の得られたFDR以降の唯一の民主党大統領で、クリントン は唯一の2期勤めた民主党大統領である。バージニア知事のマイク・ワーナーはクリントンや カーターに近いタイプの政治家だが大統領選からドロップした。共和党にとってほっとする ことではある。
Over the next two years, there will be two Democratic parties. 今後に年間は二つの民主党が並存する。
The Democratic congressional leadership is untested. With the sole exception of Harry Reid in the Senate, who was briefly majority whip during the 18 months of Democratic control between 2001 and 2002, none of the new leaders has ever served in the majority leadership. 民主党の議会勢力(左派)は経験が少ない。2001-2002に18ヶ月だけ多数は指導者を経験した ハリー・ライドを除いて民主党の議会指導者らは多数派として議会を運営した経験がない。
The most dangerous potential trap for the congressional Democrats involves the war in Iraq and the broader war on terror. Among Republicans and Democrats in Washington there is little doubt that the failure so far to achieve victory in Iraq played a large part in the defeat of the GOP congressional majority. But the Democrats' ability to influence the conduct of the war is another matter. It is unknown exactly how the public would respond if the Democrats passed a bill calling for retreat from Iraq or cutting off appropriations for the war-or, for that matter, ending the National Security Agency's warrantless domestic surveillance program or expanding the legal rights accorded to terrorist detainees-but the reaction would probably not be favorable. 危険なテーマはイラクと、より広い意味でテロとの戦いであろう。イラク戦争後処理がうまく いっていないことが中間選挙の共和党敗退に影響したことは確かであるが民主党がイラク戦争 の今後に影響力があるかは別の問題である。民主党がイラクからの早期撤退、あるいはイラク 戦費の削減法案を議会で承認させた場合に、国民がどう反応するのかは未知である。テロリス ト捜査の為の裁判所の許可なしのNSAの盗聴の禁止とか、テロリストの拘束についての人権 の拡大とかの法案も同じである。恐らく国民の反応は好意的ではないだろう。
There are some signs that the Democratic leadership understands this, and will focus its legislative efforts on economic issues favorable to Democrats while allowing criticisms of the Iraq war to be aired in committee hearings. 民主党は、こうした問題を理解していると思える兆候がある。そのため議会での活動を経済 問題に焦点をあわせようとする考えがある。委員会などでイラク問題を批判しながら議会で 民主党に有利な問題を取り上げる。北朝鮮やイランなどの安全保障問題を民主党が焦点にす る気配はまったく無い。
And that might be the best thing for the Democrats. One liberal columnist told me last week his hope that the Democratic majority would spend the next two years more or less ignoring national security while holding hearings and passing bills addressing what political scientist Jacob Hacker calls the "great risk shift"-the economic dislocations wrought by globalization that have done so much to make voters pessimistic about the American economy. In this scenario, a rise in the minimum wage, student debt relief, and other small economic reforms enacted by the congressional Democrats would strengthen the case of the presidential Democrats. おそらくそれが、民主党にとって最も賢い戦略だろう。あるリベラルのコラムニストが私に 先週言ったことだが、彼の希望は今後2年間、議会の民主党は委員会で聴聞する以外は安全保 障問題を無視して、もっぱら国民に受けそうな「グローバリゼーションが経済に与える悪影響」 といったテーマを議論すること。グローバリゼーションがアメリカ経済を脅かすというのは有 権者に恐怖感を与え、そのシナリオでは最低賃金の値上げ、学生の学費ローンの補助、そのほ かのこまかな経済支援策が大統領選挙に向けて民主党を支援するという。
The 2008 Democratic presidential nominee would then have room to tack right on national security, leading her to victory. The Democrats would have unified control of government for the first time since 1993. And remember how well things worked out for them then? 2008年大統領候補(女性)は安全保障政策を議論するわけだが、議会民主党がその問題に触れ ないので自由度をもち、選挙戦に有利になるという。そうなれば1993年以降始めて大統領と議 会が民主党になる。そういうケースでは物事が如何に上手く行くか覚えている人もいるだろう。
Bush is a lame duck, but only technically (he won't run again). He intends to be a very live duck in his final two years in the White House. When he talked to Henry Paulson, then the CEO of Goldman Sachs, last spring about becoming treasury secretary, he promised to push hard for a serious agenda no matter what the outcome of the midterm election. The result was bad for Bush, but he plans to keep his promise.
Henry Kissinger has a long, important op-ed, "Denuclearizing North Korea," in today's Washington Post (no link yet). As Kissinger himself hints, while the piece seems to be about North Korea, it is obliquely about Iran (and thus Iraq) as well.
Here is what I take to be Kissinger's distilled (and partially implicit) message. First, Kissinger notes that full-scale nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran will leave the world living "precariously at the edge of catastrophe." That's strong language for Kissinger, and entirely justified.
Above all, Kissinger is sending out a message to the Europeans, the Russians, and the Chinese: "Through my allies Baker and Gates, and through the president's new-found willingness to listen to realist advice, I may well be able to get you a double "grand bargain" that brings relative peace and stability to Korea and the Middle East.
But I cannot succeed if you aren't willing to bite the bullet and levy serious and painful economic sanctions on both North Korea and Iran. Those sanctions may be almost as painful to you as they will be to Korea and Iran. Yet without them, nothing is going to happen. Get me those sanctions, and I just might get you a deal that domesticates the erstwhile 'axis of evil.' Wimp out on sanctions, and you are looking at a proliferation nightmare and potential nuclear catastrophe.
This is the moment when President Bush is finally showing some willingness to go the route of negotiations, security guarantees, and 'grand bargains.' But if you (France, Britain, Germany, China, Russia) aren't willing to pony up with some tough and painful (to you) sanctions, the moment will pass and the world will be headed for disaster." ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー 英仏独中露に協力を呼びかけて「グランド・バーゲン」の核廃棄提案を行い、主要国が 北朝鮮(とイラン)をして核廃棄を決心させる強力な制裁の国際的団結をするよう呼び かける、といったもののようだけれど、原文の全文を読みたい・・・
WASHINGTON: Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger on Sunday urged diplomats working to rid North Korea of its nuclear weapons to set a "determined pace" in negotiations that, along with the Iranian nuclear standoff, "may well determine the prospects of world order." 元国務長官のヘンリー・キッシンジャーは北朝鮮の核廃棄交渉について、イランの核問題を 含めて平和維持の重要性から、国際社会全体での協力と取り組みを求めた。
Kissinger, writing in The Washington Post, said the United States, China, South Korea, Russia and Japan must "maintain the sanctions that helped bring a breakthrough and not repeat the mistake of the Korean and Vietnamese wars of suspending pressures as an entrance price into negotiations." The key to success, Kissinger said, is U.S.-China cooperation. キッシンジャーはワシントンポスト紙に寄稿して、アメリカ、中国、韓国、日本、ロシアは 「朝鮮戦争やベトナム戦争の過ちを繰り返さない為に、交渉を開始させブレークスルーをも たらすために、制裁を維持継続しなくてはならない」キッシンジャーに拠れば成功の鍵は中 国の協力である。
Kissinger, who has been advising President George W. Bush about Iraq, said the North's nuclear test "has brought both China and the United States much closer." If the five nations involved in the talks with North Korea "cannot conclude an effort so imperative for world peace in the face of the defiance of a country with few resources and a relatively small population, then appeals for diplomacy will become increasingly empty. "By the same token, the success that appears within reach could inaugurate a new era of cooperation across the Pacific," he said. キッシンジャーは北朝鮮の核実験が「中国とアメリカの距離を短縮した」と述べ「かくも緊急 で平和にとって重要な協議を北朝鮮のような資源も無く、人口も多くは無い国の抵抗によって 開始できないと言うなら国際交渉には意味が無いことになる」「別の言い方では、交渉の成功 は太平洋をはさんだ国際協力の新時代を意味する」
Party identification was 38 percent Democratic, 36 percent Republican. That's only a point different from 2004's 37 percent Democratic, 37 percent Republican. Republicans did worse because they had less support from independents this time. 今回は、投票者の自称支持政党が、民主=38%、共和=36%で、2004年は民主=37%、共和=37%
On ideology, 36 percent identified themselves as conservatives and 21 percent as liberals. This is in line with the long historical trend. イデオロギーについて、36%が保守、21%がリベラルと答えこの傾向は変化していない
The exit poll has the popular vote at 53 percent Democratic and 45 percent Republican. A tally of the returns in Thursday's paper showed them at 51-47 percent Democratic. 全体として、出口調査では、民主党に53%、共和党に45%の投票、しかし実際の票は51-47%と 新聞が報道している(公式データは遅れて発表)
WASHINGTON, Nov. 12 (Yonhap) -- Sanctions are necessary to force North Korea to change its behavior on its nuclear programs, but negotiators should not forget the goal is a quick resolution of the standoff, former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said Sunday.
"The key task is to move from sanctions to a conclusion of the negotiations and to do so at a determined pace," he wrote in a Washington Post opinion column.
Kissinger named three challenges for the next six-party talks -- maintaining the sanctions so that North Korea is not rewarded just for coming back to the negotiations, avoiding making North Korean demands the principal subject of the negotiations, and remaining focused on essentials so that talks are not sidetracked. キッシンジャーは6者協議に3つの要点を上げ、@北朝鮮に協議復帰でご褒美を与えず制裁継続 のこと、A交渉の目的は、北朝鮮が要求をだすことにあるわけではない事を明確に、B交渉が 横道にそれないように主要目標に焦点を絞ること、とした。
"If sanctions cannot move North Korea, arguably the most regime in the world, and Iran, then what can?" he wrote, "How else can the permanent members of the Security Council plus Japan and Germany prevail, except by making clear the consequences of intransigence?"(intransigence【名】 妥協しないこと) 「もし、制裁が世界で最も冷酷とされる北朝鮮とイランを動かせないなら、それ以外に何が出 来るというのか?」とキッシンジャーは述べ「国連安保理の常任国と日独が加わって、妥協し ないことの結果を明示する事以外に、他に勝つ方法はあるか?」
"Whatever route is chosen, the North Korean nuclear problem needs to be brought to a conclusion now," he said, "The denuclearization of North Korea would be a historic step and perhaps a turning point." "America's internal decision-making should be geared to this opportunity," he said. 「どういう過程であれ北朝鮮の核問題は今、結論が出されなくてはいけない」「北朝鮮の非核 化は歴史的ステップで、多分ターニングポイントにある」「アメリカ国内の意思決定はこの機 会を活用すべきである」
同紙は、日本の核武装論は北朝鮮の核実験が強要したものだとし、「次期国連事務総長は日本 が生存のため実用主義的に思考することを非難するよりも、金正日(キム・ジョンイル)とい う真の問題により強力な立場をとるのがよい」と主張した。 ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー Mr. Ban expressed "alarm" Monday at Japan's nascent political debate on nuclearization in the wake of North Korea's nuclear sabre-rattling. "I don't think remarks like these are desirable for the future of Japan, which is one of the most important members of the United Nations and also a major power in Northeast Asia," the Associated Press quoted Mr. Ban as saying. He said he was expressing his concern "not just as the Foreign Minister of South Korea, but also as the next U.N. Secretary -General."
North Korea's recent nuclear test is forcing Japan's political agenda. Rather than chastise Tokyo for thinking pragmatically about its survival, the next Secretary General of the U.N. would be better served by taking a stronger hand against the real problem: Kim Jong Il.
"While the Foreign Invested Enterprise sub-economy is still only 20 percent of China's total economy, it nonetheless accounts for over 40 percent of China's recent economic growth… if FDI inflows level off (as appears to have happened in 2005), the sustainability of Chinese growth in the 7-10 percent range may be doubtful." 中国経済の成長に寄与している外資の直接民間投資(FDI)と、外資との合弁企業による 産業セクターForeign Invested Enterprises (FIEs)の中国の成長率への寄与を論じているも ので外資の投資継続が無い場合に中国経済の成長率が何処まで低下し得るかを示すもの。
Vietnam is far from a model state. Like China, it's riddled with human rights violations, corruption and state-supported industries. But its economic growth is real, and the trend is for more, not less, market opening. When President Bush lands in Hanoi on Friday, it would be good for him to have PNTR in hand. But it would have been better for him to have it without protectionist carveouts. If America can't set the tone for free markets, who can? Vietnam's economy is a faint shadow of China's. But it's on its way.
Hillary Clinton (ニューヨーク州上院) John Edwards (元ノースキャロライナ州上院) Barak Obama (イリノイ州上院・ハワイ育ち、アフリカ人の父を持つ) Al Gore (元副大統領・元テネシー州上院) John Kerry (マサチューセッツ州上院) Tom Vilsack (アイオワ州知事)
Lobbyists for the American Civil Liberties Union, for example, are all but counting on Democrats to repeal the most controversial provisions of the Patriot Act, the anti-terrorist law pushed by the White House that some critics call unconstitutional. They also want to end President Bush's domestic wiretapping program.
Similar vows are coming from lobbyists for abortion rights, who want to expand family-planning options for poor women and scale back Bush's focus on abstinence education, and from gun-control advocates, who hope to revive a lapsed ban on assault weapons. Labor unions, a core Democratic constituency, are demanding universal healthcare and laws discouraging corporations from seeking inexpensive labor overseas.
Eli Pariser, executive director of the political action committee associated with the liberal activist group MoveOn.org, warned that Democratic leaders would be ill-advised to ignore the party's base.
Democratic lawmakers have not unified behind a single Iraq policy. If they could find common ground with Bush on a continued troop presence, they might fend off GOP efforts to label them as weak on national security ? but they would probably infuriate a growing antiwar movement that helped propel the party back into power.
"American voters have done their job; now it's time for Congress to do theirs," said former Rep. Tom Andrews (D-Maine), national director of the antiwar group Win Without War. "The message couldn't be clearer. It's time to start the orderly withdrawal of American troops from Iraq. Our eyes are on the new Congress."
"I honestly believe there was no bigger winner in this election than Planned Parenthood Action Fund and women's health," said Planned Parenthood President Cecile Richards, referring to the group's political arm.
At the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, the leading gun-control advocacy group, President Paul Helmke has high hopes for the assault weapons ban ? and he can list races where candidates backed by his group defeated those supported by the National Rifle Assn.
Schumer signaled as much after the election when he called on the party to "push aside the special interests and always keep our eye on the average American family." 選挙後、今後勝つためには左派に耳を向けるのではなく、”一般家庭”に耳を向けなければならないと すでに言っている。
アジアタイムズ:中国の新しい北朝鮮政策 ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー (モントレーの、Center for Non-proliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studiesの研究部長(research director)という人の書いている中国の 北朝鮮政策の分析)
North Korea's nuclear test was more than Beijing could accept. China sought closer consultation with the other major powers and sent a special envoy to North Korea to deliver a stern message to Kim Jong-il. While continuing to emphasize diplomacy, China tightened its border controls and instructed banks to halt financial dealings with North Korea, in addition to reported suspension of oil exports to the country in September. 北朝鮮の核実験は中国の許容度を越えている。このため大国との協議を強め、国境に兵士を 配し、銀行の金融取引を停止し、9月の石油輸出を止めた。
Now that Pyongyang has crossed the red line, Beijing is re-evaluating its policies and weighing alternative options. China's security interests counsel diplomacy, patience and balance, but they also call for new courses of action. Pyongyang's return to the six-party talks may be the first testimonial to Beijing's new North Korea diplomacy. 北朝鮮がレッドラインを超えてしまったために中国政府は政策を見直し、代替案を検討し始 めた。中国の北朝鮮への安全保障政策はバランスと忍耐の外交であったが、新たに行動が加 わって、6者協議再開となった為、これが中国の新北朝鮮政策の記念になるのかもしれない。
However important Iranian supplies of oil are, China could ill afford alienating the US, where it has much larger stakes in market, investment and technologies. Beijing also needs Washington's cooperation in reining in the independence elements in Taiwan, as well as working out differences with Tokyo. Likewise, China needs a good and stable relationship with the EU for expanding trade, investment, and the latter's lifting of the arms ban imposed in 1989.
BIS spokesman Jan Subrt also said that the agency stopped several similar exports of equipment that could be used to produce weapons of mass destruction to Iran and Syria in 2003 and 2004. チェコの諜報局の広報官Jan Subrtは、WMD開発用に利用される機械類のシリアとイラン 向け販売を2003-2004に停止させたと述べた。
Subrt said North Korea business representatives and state officials who, the agency believed, were linked to the program of research and development of nuclear weapons, arrived in the Czech Republic to make deals to get the equipment, which included special machine tools, their components and control units. 北朝鮮の核開発機器の入手を図るビジネスマンや成否官僚からの商売の話も停止させている とした。特殊な機会工具類、その部品やコントロールユニットなどがそれであるという。
"It was the equipment that certainly can be used to produce weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons," Subrt said. "It the case of North Korea, devices capable of carrying nuclear weapons were mostly at stake." 「それらの機械類はWMD製造に使われるもので、核兵器も其中に含まれる。北朝鮮の場合は 核兵器関連の器機が最大関心事であった」
ラジオ・チェコのサイトによれば ttp://www.radio.cz/en/article/85214 Experts say that North Korea desires the special equipment for production of both conventional and nuclear weapons, as well as their launchers. The technology in question would enable North Korea to produce a much smaller nuclear weapon than its current technology allows. The compatible launchers could then send the smaller nuclear warheads much farther abroad.
he U.S. is concerned about China's recent acquisition of warships with a ``blue water'' capacity, the admiral in charge of the U.S. Pacific Fleet said in Beijing. 北京を訪問中のアメリカ太平洋艦隊の提督は、中国が「ブルーウオーター」海軍の能力を 入手しつつあることを憂慮していると語った。
``Clearly the growth and capacity of China's navy, its ability to go into the blue water is very, very clear,'' Admiral Gary Roughead, commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, said in a briefing at the U.S. Embassy in the Chinese capital today. Roughead is in China to help oversee a joint U.S.-China naval sea rescue exercise off the south China coast beginning Nov. 19. 太平洋艦隊提督のGary Rougheadは「明らかに中国海軍の増大と能力向上はブルーウオーター ネービーに近づいており、とても、とてもあきらかだ」Gary Rougheadは米中海上救援演習の 視察のため訪中しており、北京の米国大使館で会見した。(後略)
After Clinton, the Republicans built a majority out of a coalition of religious and economic conservatives. But Christian believers, just like Christian voters, need not be economically conservative. Indeed, we have now learned that the Democrats can be successful if they offer up candidates in the Bible belt who follow their party line on economics, all the while espousing religious devotion. クリントン以降の共和党は宗教的保守と経済的保守の連合を形成して多数派を占めた。し かし宗教的信仰の厚い人が経済的保守とは限らないので、民主党がそうした層の人たちを 成功裏に取り込んで新型の政治家を立てることになった。バイブルベルトに出現したそれ ら政治家は経済的にリベラルで宗教的に保守である。
Looking beyond the next two years, it seems likely that this development could magnify the political might of Democrats. That could have an enormous effect on tax, entitlement and trade policies. Taxes will go up, entitlements will continue to expand, and free trade will gradually give way to “fair” trade. 今後2年間を考えると民主党の勢力が経済的な政策に影響を与えることが予想され、その結果 税金では減税はなくなり、年金・保険金受給制度が拡大され、自由貿易は管理貿易に姿を変え てゆくことになろう。
"To see victory as a curse and defeat as moral purification and salvation is to combine the ancient idea of hubris with the Christian virtue of humility, catharsis with apocalypse. That such a concept should have its greatest resonance among the intelligentsia can be explained in part by the intellectual's classical training but also by his inherently ambivalent stance toward power."
The surfaced submarine was spotted by a routine surveillance flight by one of the carrier group's planes. The Kitty Hawk battle group includes an attack submarine and anti-submarine helicopters that are charged with protecting the warships from submarine attack.
According to the officials, the submarine is equipped with Russian-made wake-homing torpedoes and anti-ship cruise missiles.
The Kitty Hawk and several other warships were deployed in ocean waters near Okinawa at the time, as part of a routine fall deployment program. The officials said Chinese submarines rarely have operated in deep water far from Chinese shores or shadowed U.S. vessels.
Bill Clinton tried to create a natural majority for his party but fell short. George W. Bush attempted the same for his party but has also missed the mark. The 2002 and '04 Republican majorities were too small to withstand the winds of 2006. クリントンは民主党を国民の多数派の支持政党にしようとして成功せず、ブッシュも同じ努 力をして成功していない。2002-2004の共和党の多数支持は2006を支えるには少なすぎた。
For a dozen years, our politics has been bitterly polarized, dominated by two baby boomer presidents who happen to have personal characteristics that people on the other side of the cultural divide absolutely loathe. Clinton in 1992 and Bush in 2000 both made genuine efforts to run as unifiers, but once in office proved to be dividers. 十年以上もの間アメリカの政治は二極分離していて、各々の支持政党に文化的にも乖離してい る。そういう性格を持つ二人の大統領によって時代が流れてきた。クリントンの1992年、ブッ シュの2000年選挙で統合の努力が言われたが、それは実現せず二極分化が残った。
The 2008 cycle will bring a different cast of characters. The leaders in the polls -- Rudolph Giuliani, John McCain and Hillary Clinton -- all are, to varying degrees, in tension with their parties' bases. That suggests that they have the capacity, to varying degrees, to appeal across the cultural divide and pull their parties above the 51 percent ceilings they've been under for the past 10 years. Other potential candidates -- Republican Mitt Romney and Democrat Barack Obama -- may have similar potential. The culturally conservative Republican base and the vitriolically antiwar Democratic base don't seem to have strong candidates, unless you count Al Gore and John Edwards. 2008年大統領選挙では、異なったキャラクターの候補が現れた。ジュリアーニ、マケイン、 それにヒラリー・クリントンといった(中道派の)人たちは、それぞれが基盤政党との間で 何がしかの緊張関係を有している。これは、それらの候補者が、各々異なる程度に文化的に 乖離した人々の双方にアピールできる可能性を示唆する。それが成功すれば支持政党を51% 以上にする事が出来るかもしれない。これは過去10年間、不可能であった事である。他の候 補者、共和党のミット・ロムニーや民主党のバラク・オバマも同じような可能性を持つかも しれない。文化的に保守的である共和党の基盤や、過激に反戦傾向の民主党の基盤は(それ らのイデオロギーに純粋な)強力な候補者を持たないように見える。貴方がアル・ゴアや、 ジョン・エドワーズの可能性を高く評価するなら別だが。
That leaves the initiative on setting a post-Bush agenda to the presidential candidates of both parties. They start off closely matched. Pollster Scott Rasmussen, whose final Senate numbers were spot on, shows Hillary Clinton trailing John McCain 48 percent to 43 percent and tied 46 percent to 46 percent with Rudolph Giuliani. Democrats may have thumped Republicans last week, but the political future is very much up for grabs. ブッシュ後の大統領選は接戦である。ラスムッセン世論調査は上院議員予測に比較的良い成績 を出していたが、その世論調査に拠ればマケイン48%にヒラリー・クリントンは43%でゆずり、 ジュリアーニ46%とはヒラリー46%がタイである。民主党は中間選挙では共和党に大勝したが、 将来の選挙についてはこれからの動きによるところが大きい。
Japan's economy expanded at twice the pace expected by economists in the third quarter.
Gross domestic product rose at an annual 2 percent pace between July and September, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo, above the 1 percent median forecast of economists. Faster growth may prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates before the end of the year, narrowing the yen's rate gap with major currencies and deterring investors from sending money overseas.
A Russian decision to sell its most advanced weapons to China could trigger a sharp U.S. reaction. In its February 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review Report, the U.S. Department of Defense stated: “Internationally, the United States welcomes Russia as a constructive partner, but views with increasing concern its sales of destructive weapons technologies abroad” [6]. U.S. officials allege that Russia’s restrictions on arms sales are much weaker than those of Western countries, especially regarding authoritarian governments accused of massive human rights violations. U.S. officials worry that Russia’s arms sales to China are accelerating the PLA’s modernization and altering the military balance in the Taiwan Strait in Beijing’s favor. This shift could harden Beijing’s stance towards Taiwanese autonomy, facilitate another Chinese decision to threaten military force against Taipei and heighten the risk of another Sino-U.S. military confrontation over Taiwan. For this reason, the Bush administration has also made strenuous efforts to prevent the European Union from lifting its embargo on arms sales to China.
In January 2005, the head of the Russian Air Force said that Russia had deliberately showcased their Tu-95MS and the Tu-22M3 at the bilateral August “Peace Mission 2005” exercises to entice Chinese buyers. Although these strategic bombers are older platforms, they can launch long-range cruise missiles against air and ground targets, including U.S. aircraft carriers [3]. Another possible export item might be Russia’s fourth-generation diesel-electric Lada-class submarines, the acquisition of which would also increase China’s military capability against the United States and its Pacific allies. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the Russian government has already offered to sell China Su-33 and Su-35 advanced combat aircraft, which are still under development [4]. Fears that the United States is seeking nuclear superiority over Russia and China?as claimed in a widely read recent Foreign Affairs article?could also induce Russia and China to collaborate on nuclear and ballistic missile technology [5]. ーーーーー 5. Igor Gaidar, “Yadernyy balans: opasnye igri,” Vedomosti, March 30, 2006. The controversial article asserting that the U.S. strategic buildup was in the process of negating Russia’s and China’s nuclear deterrents was Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press, “The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy,” Foreign Affairs (March/April 2006).
WASHINGTON (AP) - Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, a moderate Republican best known for his stewardship of the city after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, has taken the first step in a 2008 presidential bid, GOP officials said Monday. ジュリアーニ前NY市長が08大統領選挙に向けた第一歩を踏み出した
The former mayor filed papers to create the Rudy Giuliani Presidential Exploratory Committee, Inc., creating a panel that would allow him to raise money for a White House run and travel the country. ジュリアーニ氏は、選挙準備をおこない、資金を集めるため、選挙準備コミティを設立し 準備活動を開始する。
Now that North Korea has announced its weapons test, China needs to take part in the sanctions (import/export restrictions on nuclear technology) that the international community will surely impose on North Korea. But China should block economic sanctions; it can only afford to choose between two evils: insufficient sanctions that would show lack of responsibility or harsh sanctions that would force North Korea to extremes or bring about a regime change.
``We have continued to say that we want the Bank of Japan to back up economic growth firmly,'' Omi said at a press conference. Omi said it's up to the central bank to decide how to manage interest rates. Hidenao Nakagawa, secretary-general of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, said he wants the central bank to cooperate with the government to help the economy.
``Government officials are apparently making preventive moves against an earlier additional rate hike,'' said Nobuo Ibaraki, deputy general manager of foreign exchange at Nomura Trust and Banking Co. Ltd. ``The BOJ will be unable to ignore that kind of political pressure for the time being.'' 野村トラストの茨城外為副部長は「政府は明らかに早期の利上げを押さえるように圧力をかけ ている。日銀は暫くの間、そういう政治圧力を無視することは困難だろう」
In other words, those banking on a relatively sanguine outlook for core inflation outweighed those looking for deterioration by a factor of three to one. Nor was there much concern about the possibility of sharp further upward increases in oil prices. Fully 64% of the Lyford crowd expected WTI-based oil prices to hold in a $40 to $60 range, with more leaning toward the lower half of that range than the upper half. The tail on the oil price was skewed slightly to the upside, with 6% of the group fearing a breakout above $80 while no one thought oil would drop below $40 per barrel over the next 12 months. 会議に参加した投資関係者の見解は、今後に石油価格の急激な上昇を予想する向きは少ない。 WTIベース価格で$40から$60を予想する向きが64%である。このレンジの下半分を予想する 人のほうが多い。一部に、6%程度の人は$80以上を予想するが、今後12ヶ月では$40以下を予想 する人はいない。
(韓国の不參加を記した後で) A loose coalition of countries that have joined, including Australia and Japan, have carried out naval exercises to practice for interdictions, and a few countries have already boarded ships to and from North Korea in ports throughout Asia. アメリカと日本、オーストラリアを含む(PSIの)緩い聯合が作られ貨物検査の演習を 実施してきた。しかし北朝鮮むけ、あるいは北朝鮮からの船にアジアの港で実際に検査を 行なった国は少ない。
But the legality of intercepting ships in international waters remains unclear, even under a United Nations Security Council resolution passed after the North’s test. The resolution calls on countries, though it does not require them, to inspect cargo in and out of North Korea. また公海上での貨物検査には国連安保理決議があっても合法性が明確ではない。決議案は 加盟国に義務ではないが北朝鮮むけの、あるいは北朝鮮からのカーゴの検査を求めている。
Unchecked climate change could force up to 72 per cent of bird species in some areas into extinction but the world still has a chance to limit the losses, conservation group WWF said in a report on Tuesday. 地球温暖化などの今までにない気候変化は、地上のある地域で72%までの鳥類の絶滅を起こす 恐れがあるとWWFが火曜日に発表した。ケニアで開かれた国連の地球温暖化防止のカンフ ァレンスデ報告された。
From migratory insect-eaters to tropical honeycreepers and cold water penguins, birds are highly sensitive to changing weather conditions and many are already being affected badly by global warming, the new study said. 昆虫を餌にする渡り鳥、熱帯のハワイ蜜吸い鳥、寒帯のペンギンなどは気候変化に敏感で、 既に地球温暖化の悪影響を受けているという。
Predicted rising temperatures could see Europe's Mediterranean coastal wetlands -- critical habitats for migratory birds -- completely destroyed by the 2080s, it said. 予想される温度上昇は欧州の渡り鳥の生態にとってクリティカルな地中海沿岸湿地帯から 2080年に鳥類を絶滅させるかもしれない。
In the U.S., unabated warming was seen cutting bird species by nearly a third in the eastern Midwest and Great Lakes, while almost three-quarters of rainforest birds in Australia's northeastern Wet Tropics were at risk of being wiped out. アメリカの東中西部や五大湖地域では継続する温度上昇で鳥類が三分の一程度減少し、また オーストラリア北東部の熱帯雨林地域の鳥類の四分の三が絶滅する可能性がある。
"In Europe, the endangered Spanish imperial eagle, currently found mainly in natural reserves and parks, is expected to lose its entire current range," WWF's report said. 欧州では絶滅の危惧される鳥類は自然保護地域や公園に住むスペインの皇帝鷲があるとWWF は言っている。
Also at high risk were eight species of brightly colored Hawaiian honeycreeper, Galapagos Islands penguins and the Scottish capercaillie -- the world's biggest grouse -- which WWF said could lose 99 per cent of its habitat due to warming. また明るい色彩を持つ8種のハワイの蜜吸い鳥、ガラパゴス島のペンギン、スコットランドの オオライチョウ(世界最大のライチョウ)があり、それらは99%が絶滅する可能性があると言 う。 ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー なにやら眉唾の記事で、この元ネタのニュース・レリースはWWFインターナショナルの サイトにうpされている。 ttp://www.panda.org/news_facts/newsroom/index.cfm?uNewsID=86460 Climate change has birds out on a limb 14 Nov 2006
(ファロン司令官発言) "The characterization of stalking an aircraft carrier is rather sensational and I think it's probably not close to being accurate," Fallon told reporters in Malaysia, 「空母をストーキングするという言い方は、多分にセンセーショナルに過ぎて、私が思う に余り正確とはいえない」
But he added: "The fact that you have military units that would operate in close proximity to each other offers the potential for events that would not be what we would like to see -- the potential for miscalculation." 「軍事行動を行なう二つのユニットが近接していれば、計算間違いの起こる可能性があり、 そうう事故の起こることは避けたいものだ」
"Now it turns out that the aircraft carrier and its escorting ships were out doing some exercises. I am told they were not engaged in anti-submarine exercises, so they were not looking for submarines. But if they had been, and this Chinese submarine happened to come in the middle of this, then this could well have escalated into something that was very unforeseen." 「空母と支援艦隊が演習を行なっていたわけだ。その演習は対潜水艦演習ではないというこ となので、空母グループは潜水艦を探していたわけではない。しかし、もし空母グループが そうしていたならば、そしてこの中国潜水艦が演習中にそこに接近して来れば、そういう場 合には何かとても予定外のことにエスカレートする可能性もある」
(この件について中国外交部広報官、定例記者会見でのコメント) "China has neither the intention nor the capability for a massive military build-up," Jiang Yu told a regular news conference in Beijing. "We will stick to the path of peaceful development. China is an important force in safeguarding peace in Asia- Pacific and in the world." 「中国は膨大な軍事部隊を建設する意図も能力も無い」「中国は平和台頭の道に専念する。 中国はアジア・太平洋地域の重要な平和維持勢力である」
ttp://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1114/p09s01-coop.html from the November 14, 2006 edition Democrats will not disappoint We pledge to make this the most honest, ethical, and open Congress in history. By Nancy Pelosi
CSM:民主党は人々を失望させない Byナンシー・ペロシ(民主党、下院議長予定者)
We will: 民主党の実現することは:
? Make America safer by implementing the recommendations of the 9/11 commission. 911委員会の勧告を実施してアメリカを安全に
? Make our economy fairer by raising the minimum wage and ending taxpayer subsidies for sending jobs overseas. 最低賃金を上げ、企業の雇用を海外に輸出する減税などを廃止し、公平な経済を実現
? Make college more affordable by cutting the interest rates on student loans. 大学に行きやすくするため学生ローンの金利を引き下げ
? Improve healthcare by allowing Medicare to negotiate for lower prescription drug prices and promoting stem-cell research. 健康保険の改善、メディケアの薬品価格をメーカーと交渉して下げさせ幹細胞研究を促進
? Achieve energy independence within 10 years by investing America's energy dollars in the Midwest instead of the Middle East. アメリカのエネルギーの中東依存をなくする10年計画に着手
? Guarantee a dignified retirement by improving Medicare, protecting Social Security, and making it easier to save for retirement. メディケアの改善、社会保障の完備、老後の為の資金貯蓄のしやすい環境つくり ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー 別のところにイラクについて触れているものの、項目別に上げている政策目標に軍事外交 政策は無く、もっぱら経済問題に焦点を当てている。イランにも北朝鮮にも核拡散にも言 及はない。福祉国家政策をいうのみ。
A CNN poll released this month found that 28 percent of Democrats chose her as their favorite candidate, 11 points ahead of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. The problem is how many people won't vote for her: A June 2006 Harris Interactive poll found that 47 percent said they would definitely not vote for Clinton-compared with 34 percent who said the same about John McCain.
Ironically, a suspicion that she's not liberal enough could cause her trouble in the '08 primaries. Unlike possible presidential contenders Kerry and John Edwards, Clinton has not renounced her Iraq vote. "The activist wing believes the Democratic Party has become capitulationist," says a top party strategist. "The question is whether Hillary is doing enough to pacify them or whether she becomes the symbol of capitulation." ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー 典型的なリベラル内部評論の類。視野がリベラル支持者のものに限定された世界の話で 余り面白くは無い。参照されているCNN世論調査は一般的ではなく、マケインのほうが支 持率の高く出ている調査も多い。民主党内部の問題は、反戦左派などの中道派への不満。 しかし、その中道派のリバーマンは選挙で高い支持を得ている。
"Things are slowing down and that shouldn't be a surprise to anyone," said Stuart Freeman, chief equity strategist at A.G. Edwards & Sons. "We still think we'll have soft landing."
Despite the strong Japan-U.S. alliance, Abe noted that it remains unclear whether Tokyo is permitted under its own constitution to shoot down a ballistic missile flying over Japanese territory en route to the United States. The existing rules of engagement for Japanese troops on peacekeeping missions overseas are also severely limited by the constitution. Under current interpretations, for instance, Japanese troops are not permitted to defend themselves -- or U.S. or other allied troops -- unless directly fired upon. 日本の領土をこえてアメリカを標的とするミサイルを日本のMDが撃ち落すことが憲法で 許されるかどうか、不明確なところがある。現行の日本憲法は集団的自衛権に制約をつけ ているとされる。
But leading Japanese scholars have said such policy changes may not require the adoption of a new constitution, and could instead be made through official clarifications issued by the cabinet. While declining to provide a timetable for declaring new security protocols, Abe called for their analysis on a case-by-case basis. しかし、憲法改正を待たなくとも集団的自衛権について解釈の変更は可能だとする法学者 の見解が示されている。安倍首相はその分析についてケースバイケースで進めるように 指示を出している。
"We need to take up each individual example and study whether they [actually] infringe upon the constitution," he said. 「我々は各種の事例につい研究して憲法に触れるかを検討する」と安倍首相は述べた。 (後略)
China is actively considering participation in the U.S.-led counter-proliferation interdiction program as a means to press its neighbor and ally North Korea to give up its nuclear program, a former White House aide said. 前NSCのマイケル・グリーン氏によれば中国はPSI参加を積極的に検討している
Michael Green, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said U.S.-China coordination on North Korean issues is "going extremely well," backed by an angry Beijing that is willing to press Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons. CSISのシニア・アドバイザーであるグリーン氏は北朝鮮問題での米中協力は「大変 上手くいっている」という。核実験に中国が怒っていて、圧力をかけることに前向きな ことがその理由と言う。
In an interview late Monday with Yonhap, Green predicted the South Korea-U.S. summit this weekend will be difficult. グリーン氏は今週行なわれる韓米サミットは困難なものになると予測した。
Green, who until last year was senior director for Asia at the National Security Council (NSC), suggested there has been a major turnaround by China in dealing with North Korea, including Beijing's position on the Proliferation Security Initiative 前NSCアジア部長のグリーン氏は、中国の北朝鮮政策に大きな変更があり、中国政府が PSIについての立場を変え得るという。
"Chinese scholars close to the government are increasingly saying China should participate in the PSI... because they need to send North Korea a signal and they need to deter North Korea from developing nuclear weapons," he said. 「政府に仕える中国の学者は、最近とみに中国がPSIに参加すべきだといい始めている。 何故なら、中国は北朝鮮に、核開発を止めさせたいとのシグナルを送る必要があるからと言う。
There is "much more of an open attitude" among Chinese intellectuals, especially using PSI as a tool to press the North Koreans, he said. "I think it's going to be a hard one because the nuclear test galvanized thinking in all of the capitals. But in Seoul, it seems to have the least effect," said Green. グリーン氏によればPSIを道具として使うことに中国の知識人がオープンな態度を取るよう になっているという。「核実験で多くの考え方が影響を受けて、そうしたハードなものが出て 来ると思う。しかし韓国政府だけは、そういう影響を受けることが少ないように見える」
"For now, China is being very cooperative in case-by-case interdictions, and the U.S. and China, the governments, are increasingly sharing perspectives, or sharing assessments, analysis of the situation," he said. 「今では中国はケース・バイ・ケースで制裁にとても協力的だ。米中は加速的に状況分析や アセスメントや観点を共有するようになっている」
"PSI is not an act of war or aggression," Green emphasized. 「PSIは戦争行為でも、侵略でもない」とグリーン氏は言う。
"I don't think the Chinese have any intention to remove sanctions (under) 1718 just because North Korea shows up at the talks," said Green. 「中国が北朝鮮の6者協議参加があっても、安保理決議1718の制裁を止めるとは思わない」
"China has been quite clear about that with the U.S. government and the North Koreans." 「中国は北朝鮮にもアメリカ政府にも、それを明確にしている」
"I don't see any explicit trade-off between the BDA sanctions and progress in the nuclear talks. They are not connected," said Green. 「BDAに関わる金融制サイト核廃棄交渉の進捗に明示的なトレードオフがあるとは思わない」 (後略)
(1) US investors remain fundamentally positive on Japan, but confused by economic indicators and underperformance year-to-date. Despite this, 22% expect Japan to be the best-performing equity market in 2007. アメリカの投資家は依然として日本経済にポジティブであるが、(弱含みの)経済データに 混乱させられている。しかしそれにもかかわらず22%の人は2007年に最高の株式市場になる と予測している。
(2) Japan has likely exited "clunkritude" ? structural underperformance. The reasons are: (a) increased ability to realize productivity gains, (b) benefits from growth in BRICs, and (c) existence of relatively attractive, efficient capital markets. 日本経済は恐らくガチンコの困難、つまり構造的な経済停滞を脱したであろう。その理由は (a)生産性向上を実現する能力の向上があり、(b)BRICsの成長から利益を得ており、 (c)比較的効率的な、魅力的でもある資本市場が存在するため。
Market implications マーケット・インプリケーション
(1) Foreign investors are likely to continue investing in Japan. Indeed, a significant shift into Japan could occur when confidence in a continued recovery rises. 外人投資家の日本投資は継続すると思われ、実際問題として経済の回復への自信が向上す れば、日本への投資の大幅増加もあり得る。
(2) Since foreign investors see higher oil and a stronger yen, they are likely to emphasize domestic names over exporters. 外人投資家は高い石油価格と強い円を予想するので、輸出企業よりは国内企業を選ぶだろう
Risks リスク
(1) Poor indicators could dampen enthusiasm for Japan, and make a revival that much harder. (2) Japan could be more exposed than some other countries to geopolitical risks, e.g., a confluence of higher oil prices and nuclear proliferation. (1)悪い経済データが日本経済への興味を無くさせること、その場合は投資家のリバイバルは より難しくなる。(2)核拡散や石油価格高騰などの問題が起こった場合、日本経済は他の国よ り傷つきやすい。
"You cannot solve the nation's fiscal problems without increased revenues," declared Mr. Rubin, the Democratic Party's leading economic spokesman, in a speech last Thursday. He also took a crack at economic forecasting by noting that "I think if you were to increase taxes right now, you would have probably about zero negative effect on the economy." The economics and politics here are worth parsing.
Republican Vern Buchanan, who leads Democrat Christine Jennings by about 375 votes, or less than 0.02 percent. Connecticut, 2nd District: Democrat Joe Courtney led GOP Rep. Rob Simmons by just 66 votes.
Georgia, 12th District: First-term Democratic Rep. John Barrow led Republican former Rep. Max Burns by fewer than 600 votes.
中国共産党は中国経済を発展させる為に国内金融市場を開放して行くことの必要性を理解し ているはずである。しかし資本主義というのは個人が各々の影響力を発揮するシステムであ るので、根本的に一党独裁と矛盾する。来月に中国はWTOとの約束を遵守することになろ うが、外国人がジョークを口にすることになる可能性も。 (Next month, China will likely abide by the letter of its WTO commitments. But the joke could be on the foreigners.)
Conclusion America and South Korea should capitalize on the KORUS FTA as a special opportunity for both countries to reinforce the strategic and economic alliance. The APEC meeting should serve as a positive venue for mutual understanding and serve the national interests of both countries. The meeting should provide momentum that would allow the U.S. and South Korea to come closer to concluding the FTA and begin earning the solid, tangible benefits it will provide. ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー 米韓FTAのメリットを書いているもので、それは理解できるけれど、筆者(韓国系)の バランス感覚は疑問で、シンクタンクならば、FTA以前に韓国国内のアンチアメリカニ スムにどう対策するかを考えるべきと思えるのだけれど・・
Still, he is trying to pull off something audacious. While the freedom agenda is increasingly on the defensive in Washington, it seems to have found a new champion in Tokyo.
>>339 >日本のみんすも そのうち(コピペ・バージョンを)輸入販売するかもしれない(?) オカラがこれを批判したら笑へる "Wal-Marting" of cheap consumer products brought in from places like China >>340 >既に一部のブロガーが「日本は国防保守、経済左派を目指そう」 それ、どこの満洲国総務庁次長?
>>351-352 ハイアット氏は安倍首相に自由主義の同志を見出してるのだが。 安倍氏の主張は明確で健全だが、昔からの支持者は右翼ナショナリストであり、 国民の多数は経済以外での国際的リーダーシップに無関心なるので実現は 簡単でない、というもの。 Oxford English Dictionary audacious, a. 1. Daring, bold, confident, intrepid. b. transferred to things. 2. Unrestrained by, or setting at defiance, the principles of decorum and morality; presumptuously wicked, impudent, shameless. 3. Inspiring boldness. Obs. rare.
Actually, the special water puppetry programme will make its debut on November 15 at the theatre to welcome international visitors to the APEC Summit. The performance, with the participation of 20 puppeteers from the theatre who control around 100 characters, will surely make a good impression on visitors. 15日からのAPECに参加する各国首脳の夫人たちの為に演じられるプログラムは20人の 人形師が100あまりのキャラクターを使うもので、訪問者に良い印象を与える事確実
The performance includes 14 of the best traditional water puppet performance pieces such as the Dragon Dance, Dragon Boat Racing, Children of the Fairy and the Dragon. Most of these performances have won prizes at festivals at home and been performed abroad. 水上人形劇は伝統的な14個のベストのものを含み、ドラゴンダンスとかドラゴンボートレース とか、妖精の子供たちトドラゴンとか、賞を獲得したり海外で公演されたりしてきた・・
The show for APEC leaders’ wives will last from 30-45 minutes, and include 14 pieces reflecting Vietnamese folk culture like Teu, The buffalo boy playing flute, Beating the fox who catches ducks, Farm works, Fishing and the Incense burning ceremony, which is a new item.
In recent days, the price for artiso flowers in the Central Highlands city of Da Lat has suddenly soared from VND35,000-40,000 for a first grade kilo to VND55,000 - 60,000/kg and from VND25,000 to VND35,000 for the second grade product.
As chef Didier Corlou announced he would introduce a new “soup made of oysters, Da Lat artiso flowers and black mushrooms” as one of the four main courses at the APEC Gala Dinner, many people now want to try dishes processed from artiso flowers. APECの晩餐会でシェフ、Didier Corlouの考案した新しい「牡蠣とDa Lat artiso flower とブラック・マッシュルームのスープ」が供されると発表されたので、多くの人が artiso flower を食べてみようと・・
The information reviewed at the October meeting suggested that economic activity increased at a slow pace in the third quarter. The contraction in home construction remained a significant drag on economic activity, and steep reductions in motor vehicle assemblies further weighed on growth in the third quarter. Nonetheless, consumer spending and business investment continued to hold up well. Payroll employment extended its moderate expansion, on average, through September. Sharp declines in energy prices reduced total consumer price inflation in September, but the twelve-month change in core prices remained elevated relative to year-earlier readings. ・・・・ In their discussion of the economic situation and outlook, meeting participants noted that incoming data over the relatively brief intermeeting period had come in broadly as anticipated. The most recent indicators suggested that economic growth had probably slowed more sharply in the third quarter than had been expected at the time of the September meeting, but that appeared to largely reflect the impact of temporary influences. Participants continued to expect the economy to expand at a rate close to or a little below the economy's long-run sustainable pace over coming quarters. ・・・・ All meeting participants expressed concern about the outlook for inflation. Most participants expected core inflation to edge lower, in part as the effects of the run-up in energy prices in recent years waned. And shelter costs were not expected to add materially to inflation going forward. Moreover, moderate growth in aggregate demand and the associated modest easing of pressures on resource utilization should also contribute slightly to the slowing in core inflation.
Members agreed that the statement to be released after the meeting should continue to convey that inflation risks remained the dominant concern and that additional policy firming was possible. The Committee concurred that the statement should mention both that economic growth had slowed over the course of the year and that, going forward, the economy seemed likely to expand at a moderate pace.
Congressional Democrats, demanding a bold new approach to end a diplomatic standoff, urged the Bush administration on Wednesday to send the top U.S. negotiator to North Korea and press for an end to its nuclear weapons program. 民主党の議員らが北朝鮮との新しいアプローチを要求して、外交的な孤立状態を終わらせ るべく北朝鮮との交渉の為にトップクラスの外交官を送るよう求めた。
Such a mission by Christopher Hill would demonstrate "our peaceful intent," said California Rep. Tom Lantos, the top Democrat on the House International Relations Committee. Panel members quizzed Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns about the so-far futile effort to halt North Korea's nuclear weapons and missiles programs. トム・ラントス議員はヒル国務次官補を「平和的意図を示す」ために北朝鮮ミッションとし て送り込むべきとしている。ラントス議員は外交委員会のトップである民主党議員でバーン ズ国務次官に北朝鮮核問題の実りの無い努力について問いただした。
"The North Korean problem is a regional problem," Burns said. "It poses a threat to all of its neighbors." But Lantos, the prospective new chairman of the committee when the Democrats take control of Congress in January, said, "the administration's refusal to permit visits (by U.S. diplomats) to North Korea must end and must end now." 「北朝鮮問題は北東アジア地域の問題で、隣国全てに脅威を及ぼしている問題だ」とバーンズ 次官は述べている。しかしラントス議員は(来年1月以降下院外交委員会の委員長になりそう なのだが)「政府の北朝鮮へのアメリカ外交官の訪問を禁ずるやり方は、今すぐに止めるべ きだ」としている。(後略) ーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーーー 最近のボルトン大使やラントス議員の記事とか読むたびにアタマが痛orz
``The mainland's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits has informed the relatives of the persons concerned,'' Li Weiyi, a spokesman for the Beijing-based China Taiwan Affairs Office, said in a regular briefing today. The businessmen are based in China's southern province of Hunan, Li said. He didn't name the men or say what type of business they are involved in.
QUESTION: Do you have anything about this Chinese submarine incident? 中国の潜水艦事件について何か無いか? MR. MCCORMACK: No, I don't. The guys over at DOD, I think, have been talking about it quite a bit. これは国防省の管轄。
QUESTION: So they're going to be the lead on that? I mean, are you going to talk to the Chinese or --国務省はこの件で中国と話さないのか?
MR. MCCORMACK: I don't think -- you know, we don't own any aircraft carriers here. You know, if there's a role for the State Department, then you know, then there is. I'm not aware of one in this regard. 国務省は航空母艦を持っていないので、国務省が関連する事があるとは思わない。
In an essay I wrote for the Dec. 9, 2002, issue of The Weekly Standard, I outlined the rough path to that "end state" in Iraq:
"Pity Gen. Tommy Franks or, for that matter, any American military commander tasked with overseeing a post-Saddam Baghdad. For in that amorphous, dicey phase the Pentagon calls 'war termination' ... U.S. and allied forces liberating Iraq will attempt -- more or less simultaneously -- to end combat operations, cork public passions, disarm Iraqi battalions, bury the dead, generate electricity, pump potable water, bring law out of embittering lawlessness, empty jails of political prisoners, pack jails with criminals, turn armed partisans into peaceful citizens, re-arm local cops who were once enemy infantry, shoot terrorists, thwart chiselers, carpetbaggers and black-marketeers, fix sewers, feed refugees, patch potholes and get trash trucks rolling, and accomplish all this under the lidless gaze of Peter Jennings and Al -Jazeera." ttp://www.strategypage.com/on_point/2006111515258.aspx
このひとは(Austin Bay is both a colonel in the Army Reserve and a Columbia Ph.D in English literature ? a true Renaissance man)という評価のある人
"Toyota Camry, Honda Accord, Chevy Impala (GM), Ford Taurus, Nissan Altima, Ford Explorer, Chrysler Town & Country, and other models that round off the most popular 20, regardless of the location of company headquarters, are produced in U.S. plants by American workers who contribute to the local, state, and national economies through their employment, expenditures, and taxes,"
ttp://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/16/world/asia/16prexy.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin So far South Korea has declined to take part directly in the American-led effort to detect and seize illicit weapons shipments. Many North Korean ships pass through South Korean waters. American officials say that Mr. Roh, in a visit to Washington before the nuclear test, had indicated that if North Korea detonated a nuclear test, it would “change everything” in relations between North and South. One of Mr. Bush’s senior national security aides, speaking in Washington before the president left, but declining to talk on the record about the friction between Washington and Seoul, said, “It seems to have changed almost nothing.”
Patriotism back in class for first time since war (戦後初!愛国心が教室に戻ってきた) From Richard Lloyd Parry in Tokyo The Times:November 16, 2006 OPPOSITION parties are fighting to block a new education law that many Japanese liberals regard as a dangerous throwback to the prewar era of nationalism and indoctrination.