FTに書いている英国のエコノミストの大御所ともいうべきGavyn Daviesが 安倍総裁のマネタリ政策について論じている ------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2012/12/02/this-election-may-be-different-in-japan/ This election may be different in Japan December 2, 2012 5:44 pm by Gavyn Davies 日本の今度の選挙は、従来の選挙とは異なっている by Gavyn Davies
Much of the problem stems from the uncompetitive yen, which has now been chronically overvalued for most of the past two decades. For a long while, this problem has been disguised by negative inflation in Japan (which has kept relative consumer prices down), and by the ability of Japanese companies to survive by building production facilities overseas. However, in reaching a judgment about the appropriate level for the real exchange rate, we need to take account of the trend deterioration in the terms of trade (export prices relative to import prices), and in productivity relative to other economies:
Goldman Sachs takes account of all of these factors when calculating the equilibrium real exchange rate (GSDEER), which it reckons is 33 per cent overvalued against the dollar. The severe problems recently faced by Japan’s electronic sector (think Sony and Panasonic) and the car sector (think Nissan and Toyota) are illustrations of these problems, as are the behaviour of import penetration and export performance since 1990: ゴールドマン・サックスの計算では円はドルに対して33%オーバーバリュー であるという。日本の大手家電セクター、パナソニックやソニーなどや自動車 セクターは深刻な影響を受けている。
With the real exchange rate at present levels, it is difficult to see how the economy can enjoy a healthy recovery from the current recession, and without a recovery an eventual crisis in government debt will be hard to avoid. 現在の円のレベルでは日本経済がその不況からの回復を果たすことができるか は大変困難というべきで、日本経済の回復がなければ政府負債の危機を避ける 事も出来ない (略) *Gavyn Daviesは安倍総裁のいうマネタリ政策は必然的なもので、安倍さんが やらないなら誰かが必ず持ちだすだろうという But the Japanese political wind is now blowing strongly in the direction of co-opting the central bank as an integral arm of the government. If Mr Abe does not do it, someone else almost certainly will.
デフレと円高に対するマネタリ政策のあり方について、以前にも紹介した FT社説。これは2011年10月末のもの。欧米金融ジャーナリズムの見方は、 だいたいこのFT社説に同じと思ふ; ------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/79813760-03dc-11e1-98bc-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1cRZ1b2iR The way (not) to rein in the yen October 31, 2011 6:42 pm 円高を抑制(しない)日本政府・日銀の方策 FT社説、31日
As the exchange rate with the dollar is expected to further appreciate in 2012 and 2013, Japan’s currency dilemma will not get any less painful. Yet, if the central bank took its domestic job more seriously, a lot of the currency problem would melt away. 円ドル相場は2012年、2013年に更に円高が予想され、日本の円高のジレンマは すこしも改善されないだろう。でも、日銀が国内の仕事(マネタリ政策運営) をより真剣に行うのであれば、多くの通貨レートに関わる問題は解消するであ ろう。
The Bank of Japan has long been experimenting with policy instruments that are well beyond what central banks in other big economies have tried. However, despite being innovative in scope, these policies have been largely conservative in scale, doing little to end Japan’s deflation. 日銀は長きに渡って他の国の中央銀行からみて仕事の範疇を超えるような政策 手段を試みてきているが、その行動は対象範囲(の拡大)という点でイノベー ティブであるが、其の規模において大いに保守的である為に、日本のデフレー ションを終わらせる上であまり役に立っていない。
A more aggressive quantitative easing programme, targeting 10-year government bonds instead of shorter maturities, would contribute more decisively to ease the pressure on the exchange rate. More importantly, it would also stimulate the largely stagnant domestic economy. This is the real question that Japan should try to address. より積極的な量的緩和、短期国債ではなく10年国債を目的指標としたものが円 ドル相場への圧力緩和に役に立つであろう。より重要なことは、その量的緩和 は国内経済振興に役立つということである。この問題は日本国が真剣に取り組 むべきものである(ry
>>115 これか? The Korea Football Association was warned that should incidents of such nature occur again in the future, the FIFA Disciplinary Committee may impose harsher sanctions on the Korea Football Association.
ttp://www.nypost.com/p/news/international/warns_syria_CggO9X8cyPlAzPrkj7jlnK US intelligence has detected signs the Syrian regime is moving components for chemical weapons around several sites in recent days, a senior American defense official told the AP. US intelligence has also intercepted a communication from Iran’s infamous Quds Force urging Syria to use toxic Sarin gas against rebels and civilian supporters in the city of Homs, the former American official said. 米国諜報部はシリアが、幾つかの場所で、化学爆弾のための部品を移動させている 事を検知していると米軍高官がAPに語っている。米国諜報部はまた、イランの Quds Forceがホムスなどで反政府側に対してサリンガスを使うことを議論している 交信をインターセプトしていると前米国高官が語っている。
The administration is considering everything from aerial strikes to ground raids by US allies in the area to secure Syria’s stockpiles of the weapons, one current and one former US official briefed on the matter told The Associated Press. 米国政府はシリアが化学爆弾を使う場合には、空爆から米国同盟国の軍による地上 攻撃まであらゆる手段を考慮中で、シリアの化学爆弾の貯蔵を封止することを計画 していると、ある現役高官とある前高官がAPに語っている。
O warns Syria Hints at armed response to WMD NYT From POST STAFF, AP Last Updated: 2:32 AM, December 4, 2012
Northern Syria (CNN) -- Undeterred by Syria's gruesome war of attrition, rebel fighters have scored a key gain where government forces once ruled. The rebels have choked off a sprawling military base outside Aleppo with some 450 government soldiers trapped inside. シリアの内戦で反政府軍がキイとなる戦果をあげている。アレッポ郊外の基地で政府軍 兵士450人のいる基地を封止している
The rebels could easily overrun the base, fighter Ali Jadlan said. But they want to give government soldiers a chance to defect. 反政府軍は政府軍兵士の投降を期待して基地を封止していると反政府軍兵士のAli Jadlan が語った Already, about 250 soldiers have escaped the siege, and most of them have joined the opposition. It's another indication President Bashar al-Assad is losing his grip on a country he once firmly commanded. 既に250人の政府軍兵士が逃亡し多くが反政府軍に参加している
The government has tried air-dropping food to its soldiers, often missing its targets. Opposition fighters have shot out their water supply. While the soldiers still have stockpiles of artillery, their options are dwindling. "They have reached a point where they think that they can't go back," said Jamal, a defected soldier. "They have reached a dead end. Slowly, they are weakening."
12月3日(ブルームバーグ):国際通貨基金(IMF)は、ある一定の状況で各国が 資本規制策を講じることを支持する立場を表明した。方針転換を公式に発表したもの で、今後のIMF助言の指針となる。 IMFは国境をまたいだ無制限の資本フローを支持する立場からの歴史的な転換を表 明し、利下げなど各国の経済政策余地がほとんどない場合や資本流入急増が金融安定 を脅かす場合などに、資本規制が有効になり得ると説明した。 IMF職員がまとめた報告書は、「資本フローは加盟各国と世界経済に大きな利益を もたらし得る」と指摘。その一方で、「リスクもあり、不安定だったり、国内市場と の比較で規模が大きいこともあり得る」とした。報告書は11月16日に理事会で協議さ れ、12月3日に公表された。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2012/POL120312A.htm CAPITAL FLOWS IMF Adopts Institutional View on Capital Flows IMF Survey online December 3, 2012
●Clear, pragmatic institutional view designed to guide advice to countries ●View clarifies trade-offs between policy options to maximize benefits, address risks ●Policies should take into account impact on financial stability across borders
The International Monetary Fund has developed a comprehensive, flexible, and balanced view on the management of global capital flows to help give countries clear and consistent policy advice.
Global capital flows have increased dramatically in the last decade, from an average of less than 5 percent of global GDP during 1980-1999 to a peak of about 20 percent by 2007. In the past, countries’ capital accounts have ranged
from almost completely closed to completely open and, while most countries have moved in the direction of greater openness, wide differences remain. The issue of when, how, and how much to liberalize capital flows has been one of the most contentious in the global economic policy debate for decades.
The IMF has published several studies on capital flows that underpin this institutional view, and on December 3 issued a synthesis of its work that the IMF Executive Board endorsed.
Key features of the institutional view are as follows:
? Capital flows can have substantial benefits for countries. At the same time, they also carry risks, even for countries that have long been open and drawn benefits from them. ? Capital flow liberalization is generally more beneficial and less risky if countries have reached certain levels or “thresholds” of financial and institutional development. ? Liberalization needs to be well planned, timed, and sequenced in order to ensure that its benefits outweigh the costs. ? Countries with extensive and long-standing measures to limit capital flows are likely to benefit from further liberalization in an orderly manner. There is, however, no presumption that full liberalization is an appropriate goal for all countries at all times. ? Rapid capital inflow surges or disruptive outflows can create policy challenges. Appropriate policy responses involve both countries that are recipients of capital flows and those from which flows originate. ? For countries that have to manage the risks associated with inflow surges or disruptive outflows, a key role needs to be played by macroeconomic policies, as well as by sound financial supervision and regulation, and strong institutions. In certain circumstances, capital flow management measures can be useful. They should not, however, substitute for warranted macroeconomic adjustment.
? Policymakers in all countries, including countries that generate large capital flows, should take into account how their policies may affect global economic and financial stability. Cross-border coordination of policies would help to mitigate the riskiness of capital flows.
(民主党の2009年公約に対する失望があると解説して) Before assuming office in 2009, the DPJ vowed to cut almost Y17tn ($207bn) in unnecessary state spending. But in September, central government preliminary budget requests came to Y98tn, only a fraction less than last year’s record Y98.5tn. Japan’s gross state debt, meanwhile, has ballooned to about 240 per cent of gross domestic product, higher than any other developed economy. “We’re not hearing about tackling vested interests, or pursuing real structural reforms that would mean pain for some people,” says Masamichi Adachi, an economist at JPMorgan. 日本の民主党が政権を獲得した2009年の選挙では、民主党は17兆円の予算の無駄の 節約を公約したが、実際には9月の政府の概算予算は98兆円で、前年度の98.5兆円か らの節約は僅かにとどまった。その一方で政府負債はGDPの240%に膨れ上がった。 「財政赤字についての真剣な議論や構造の改革に取り組む姿勢は見受けられない」 とJPモーガンのエコノミスト足立正道氏が言う。
(各党はデフレ対策やTPP、エネルギー政策を争点にしてはいるものの) But Steven Reed, a Chuo University politics expert, says neither topic is likely to galvanise floating voters, noting that no party is polling higher than 19 or 20 per cent. As campaigning begins in earnest on Tuesday, he says, voters are likely to be turned off by this shifting political landscape with no big policy splits. “It’s on a Sunday, isn’t it?” said Atsuko Uchiyama, a classmate of Mr Matsumoto’s. “I’ll probably be out shopping for Christmas.” しかし各党の政策の主張は浮動層を動かすものにはならないだろうと中央大学政治 学の専門家であるSteven Reedがいう。どの党も19%或いは20%を超える支持を(浮 動層から)得ていない。火曜日から選挙戦が始まるが、(浮動層の)有権者は活気 づかないだろう、(彼らを動かす)大きな政策上の対立が見当たらないので、という。 ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cf1e46e0-3d2e-11e2-9e13-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2E5L3hqkO
シリア政府が今直ぐ崩壊しないとしてもアサドの勝ち目はなく、ロシアは敗者 の擁護を続ける事には躊躇いがあるからだという。条件次第で、ロシアはアサ ドを見捨てる可能性があるという。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.netnebraska.org/node/829771 New Indications Regime Ally Russia May Change Position On Syrian Conflict December 4, 2012 - 12:11pm シリア情勢に新たな兆候、ロシアは(アサド擁護の)ポジションを変更の可能性
JUDY WOODRUFF: Dimitri Simes, you have been talking to people close to Russian President Vladimir Putin. How do the Russians see what is going on? DIMITRI SIMES, Center for the National Interest: I think that they would agree with what Steve said. The situation on the ground in Syria is changing. The Assad regime is losing. They're not yet at a point of collapse. But it's next to impossible to imagine how Assad can win. Nobody knows for sure whether Assad will be able to survive for months, for weeks, because if a regime like that collapses, it may happen very quickly. So, what the Russians obviously do not want to do is to be on the side of a failed tyrant and to be excluded from a future peaceful settlement. JUDY WOODRUFF: So, this is a new posture on the part of the Russians. Is that fair to say? DIMITRI SIMES: Judy, it is not entirely new. I think the Russians were dealing to deal on Syria for quite some time. I think that they were willing to have Assad being removed from power as a part of a negotiated settlement for quite some time. What is changing is the price they would require. The price, the Russian price for bending on Assad is going down as the situation on the ground is changing in the rebels' favor.
JUDY WOODRUFF: The price is going down. What does that mean? DIMITRI SIMES: Well, it means that, for instance, they were saying in the past that they wouldn't be prepared to prejudge who would stay in power in Syria once negotiations would start. A senior Russian official close to President Putin told me recently: We consider Assad a butcher, an inept butcher. He is a bastard. He has to go. But it should be decided by the Syrian people. Let negotiations start.
As NATO in Brussels gave the go-ahead Tuesday night, Dec. 4, for the deployment of Patriot surface-to-air missiles to protect Turkey against Syrian missiles, DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources reported that convoys of the Syrian army’s chemical weapons units headed out of Damascus under cover of dark and turned north up the road to Aleppo. Their destination is not yet known. シリア軍の化学爆弾部隊のコンボイが、深夜に北方のアレッポの方を目指してダマスカス を離れた。行く先は未確認であるが。
The convoys were ferrying self-propelled cannons for firing shells loaded with poisonous sarin gas. Syrian President Bashar Assad had evidently decided to ignore the warnings President Barack Obama issued Monday night that there would be consequences if he or anyone in Syria resorted to chemical warfare and each would be held accountable. このコンボイには自走キャノン砲が装備され化学弾頭を発射できる。アサド大統領は明ら かにオバマ大統領らの警告を無視している。
Our sources report that the Syrian ruler is aparently gambling dangerously on the Americans holding back from attacking the convoys as long as they deploy unconventional weapons, and would only react when they are used. He is also taking advantage of the heavy winds, rain and cloud over this part of the eastern Mediterranean and counting on the weather to obstruct military operations against his chemical weapons units.
DEBKAfile’s sources quote high-ranking officers in the Israel Defense Forces’ Northern Command as saying: “The coming hours and days are extremely critical for Syria. The situation on our northern front could blow up any moment.” They did not elaborate. イスラエル軍の北方方面指揮部署の高官はシリア情勢について「今後の数時間、数日は シリアにとって極めて重大で、イスラエル北方の前線状況は何時有事になっても不思議 ではない」と語っている。
NBCは、化学兵器は上空から投下して使用される可能性があるが、戦闘爆撃機には まだ搭載されていないとしている。米当局者はアサド氏が承認した場合、使用を食い 止めるのは難しいとの見方を示した。シリア政府は今週に入って、化学兵器の担当部 隊に使用準備命令を出したという。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://tv.msnbc.com/2012/12/05/nbc-report-syrian-leader-prepares-to-use-chemical-weapons/ NBC report: Syrian leader prepares to use chemical weapons MSNBC staff 9:42 pm on 12/05/2012
U.S. officials told NBC News that as soon as Syrian President Bashar Assad gives the order, the country’s military will use chemical weapons against its own people.(ry
The USS Eisenhower Strike Group transited the Suez Canal from the Persian Gulf Saturday, Dec. 1, sailing up to the Syrian coast Tuesday in a heavy storm, with 8 fighter bomber squadrons of Air Wing Seven on its decks and 8,000 sailors, airmen and Marines. The USS Eisenhower group joins the USS Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group which carries 2,500 Marines. Facing Syria now are 10,000 US fighting men, 70 fighter-bombers and at least 17 warships, including the three Iwo Jima amphibious craft, a guided missile cruiser and 10 destroyers and frigates.
Four of these vessels are armed with Aegis missile interceptors. This mighty US armada brings immense pressure to bear on the beleaguered Assad regime after it survied an almost two-year buffeting by an armed uprising. Its presence indicates that the United States now stands ready for direct military intervention in the Syrian conflict when the weather permits. 一連の艦船はイージス・ミサイル・インターセプター装備があり、シリアへの軍事的 干渉に備える
Left behind in the Persian Gulf is just one US aircraft carrier, the USS Stennis and its strike group. ペルシャ湾には空母ステニスが残されている Welcoming NATO’s decision Tuesday, Dec. 4, to deploy Patriot missile batteries in Turkey, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Wednesday: “The protection from NATO will be three dimensional; one is the short-range Patriots, the second is the middle-range Terminal High Altitude Air Defense [THAD] system and the last is the AEGIS system, which counters missiles that can reach outside the atmosphere.”
DEBKAfile’s military sources: While the Patriot is land-based and will be deployed on the Turkish-Syrian border, the THAD and the Aegis have just reached the Syrian coast aboard the USS Eisenhower strike group. “With this integrated system,” said Davutoglu, Turkey will have maximum protection.”He added: “The Syrian regime has 700 missiles,” and their location, storage method and holders are no secret to Ankara. This was the first time Ankara had made threats to destroy Syrian missiles, including any carrying chemical warheads. シリアは700基のミサイルを保有し化学弾頭とともにトルコの脅威に成り得る
ttp://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2012/12/is-syrias-assad-going-to-use-his-chemical-weapons.html There are now increasingly frequent reports of Syrian government jets and helicopter gunships being shot down by rebels; it is surely not a coincidence that there are rumors that the rebels have finally been given some heat-seeking missiles in order to deny Assad’s forces their lethal monopoly on the skies. This is a crucial step forward for the rebels, whose military offensive launched last July against the government strongholds in Damascus and Aleppo, the country’s second city, bogged down under withering air assaults. Twenty-one months into the war, it is believed that as many as forty thousand Syrians have died, and that number grows by a thousand people, give or take a few hundred, every week. Most are civilians.
Whatever the regime’s real intentions with regards to its chemical weapons, the next chapter in Syria will be an ugly one, and before it is all over, many people are going to die?from bullets and bombs if not from sarin gas. Thanks to the boy-who-cried-wolf legacy of the Iraq invasion and the W.M.D. -that-weren’t, it is not surprising that the alleged Syrian chemical weapons threat has thus far failed to cause panic in international circles. This could prove to be an unfortunate historical lesson, for, as things stand, there is no guarantee that they won’t be deployed. And if they are used, Syria’s conflict will become a threshold conflict in more ways than one.
シリア政府が化学爆弾をどう扱おうとしているかにかかわらず、シリア状況の次の ステップは悲惨なものであろう。最終的な結果の出されるまでに多くの人は爆弾や 銃撃やサリンに依って死ぬのであろう。シリアの化学爆弾、WMDというのは国際社会 をパニックに陥れることには至っていないが、それが使われないという保証はない。 もしそれが使われることになれば、シリア紛争は(国際社会の許容限度の)閾値を 超えるものになろう。 December 5, 2012 THE SYRIAN SARIN THREAT Posted by Jon Lee Anderson
Egypt's worst violence since President Mohammed Morsi was elected forced the army to deploy tanks in Cairo Thursday, as hundreds of people were hurt in clashes between Islamists and the secular opposition.(ry ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.rnw.nl/africa/bulletin/tanks-deployed-cairo-after-deadly-clashes-1 Egypt crisis: Tanks deployed after fatal Cairo clashes From: BBC Published On: December 6, 2012, 10:48 GMT エジプト危機:カイロの衝突事件のあとで戦車が出動 BBC
The Egyptian army has deployed tanks and armoured troop carriers outside the presidential palace in Cairo after clashes between supporters and opponents of President Mohammed Morsi left five dead and hundreds injured.(ry
No sooner has a new leader been appointed in China, than Japan faces change at the top too. When it comes to transitions of power ? as in so much else ? the gulf between the two Asian superpowers is as wide as the East China Sea. In recent weeks the world has been transfixed by the carefully choreographed ascension of Xi Jinping, the new president of China. If all goes according to plan, Mr Xi will remain at the helm until 2022, and analysts have been busy speculating about his vision of China’s future. 中国は2022年までの舵取りに習近平を選んだわけだが
Meanwhile in Japan, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has just called a general election that the ruling Democratic Party of Japan is almost certain to lose. Mr Noda will have been in power for 14 months ? lengthy by the standards of recent Japanese prime ministers, of whom there have been seven since Hu Jintao took office in 2003. 一方日本では、野田首相が解散総選挙に打って出て、このため与党の民主党は、ほぼ 確実に敗退下野する。野田首相の在任14ヶ月は日本の最近の標準では長いのだが胡錦 濤の10年に比べようもない。この間に日本は7人の首相があった。
The impression of Japanese political disarray is reinforced by the fact Mr Noda’s successor is likely to be Shinzo Abe, the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, who had a brief stint in the job five years ago. Japan’s political scene has been compared to a karaoke session in which everyone gets a turn at the mike. Even so, it is rare for anyone to be called back for an encore. 次の首相は5年前に短期間の首相であった自民党の安倍氏と見られ、日本の政治という のはカラオケ大会に例えられていて、誰もが次々にマイクを握る。それでも、アンコー ルというのは稀なのだが。
At first sight Mr Xi seems in the more enviable position. He does not have to worry about elections and opinion polls, and he heads an authoritarian government that has overseen decades of turbo-charged growth. Mr Abe, by contrast, will be confronted by a fractured political landscape and a stagnant economy in which once great names like Sharp and Panasonic are haemorrhaging red ink and jobs. 一見すると習近平氏は羨むべき立場にいて、彼は選挙だの世論調査だのに悩まされる事 もなく、数十年に及ぶターボチャージ付経済成長を果たしてきた権威主義的政府をもつ。 安倍氏は分裂気味の日本政治に対抗せねばならず、シャープとかソニーのような、かっ ての一流大企業が赤字と人員整理をしているような停滞した経済状況に直面している。
In reality, the balance of opportunity is probably the other way round. Mr Xi is faced by a new set of problems ? a lower growth trajectory and massive structural corruption ? that may well be beyond his power to solve. しかし本当のところは、二人の政治家の機会のバランスはというと、おそらく、一見した ところとは逆であろう。習近平氏は新たな課題、低成長軌道と膨大な構造的腐敗、それは おそらくは彼の権力をもってしても解決できないだろう。
In contrast, Mr Abe could enact significant changes relatively quickly. He has started well, positioning himself as the candidate of growth and reflation. Already he has called for an inflation target of 2-3 per cent, negative interest rates and “unlimited easing” a la Ben Bernanke. Some such dramatic change in policy settings is absolutely required if Japan is to break out of the self- reinforcing cycle of deflationary expectations. その一方で安倍氏は大きな変更を比較的短期間に成し遂げる事ができよう。彼は既に自分 を成長とリフレーションの候補者という立場において良いスタートを切っている。彼は既 にインフレ目標を2−3%に設定しネガティブ金利やバーナンキ流の「無制限緩和」を言っ ている。これらの一部の政策変更は、日本が自己強化的に行なっているデフレ期待から抜 け出すために、絶対的に必要なものである。 (中略)
The financial mandarins managed to convince the hapless Mr Noda to raise the consumption tax in a deflating economy on the grounds that “Japan might become the next Greece”. The fact is that Japan has net overseas assets equivalent to 50 per cent of GDP and has long been rated by the bond market ? as opposed to the rating agencies ? as the world’s best credit. 日本の官僚は野田首相をして、デフレ経済のもとで消費税増税に進ませることに成功した が、それは「日本が次のギリシャになる」と言ってそそのかしたのである。実際には日本 はネットでGDPの50%相当の海外資産をもち、債券市場が長年証明してきたように、つまり 格付け機関とは反対に、世界で最高の信用を持つ。
Likewise, the Bank of Japan remains locked in self-justificatory inertia. As long ago as 1998, economist Milton Friedman blamed Japan’s economic problems on “a decade of inept monetary policy” and warned against the fallacy of “identifying easy money with low interest rates”. 同じように、日本銀行は、長年にわたって自己正当化してきた慣性にとらわれている。1998 年の遠い昔、ミルトン・フリードマンは日本経済の問題を「10年に及ぶ不適切なマネタリ政 策」といって「イージーマネーを低金利と同一視する」誤謬について警告していた。
The tightness of Japanese monetary policy is demonstrated by the ever-rising yen, which has reinforced deflation and exacerbated the competitiveness problems of Japan’s manufacturers. Mr Abe is on the right lines. Shaking up the BoJ is crucial to shaking Japan out of what Mr Friedman termed “an eerie if less dramatic replay” of the US in the 1930s. 日本のマネタリ政策のタイトさというのは上昇を続ける円に依って示されてきた。円高はデフ レをさらに促進し日本製造業の競争力を悪化させる。安倍氏の政策は正しい方向で、日銀を 一新させることは極めて重要で、フリードマンの言う「劇的でないにせよ薄気味悪い」経済 状況から日本が抜け出すために必要である。
Already Mr Abe’s words have knocked back the yen a welcome few per cent. If he manages to walk the talk this time, there could be more to come, including an end to Japan’s long bear market in equities and even longer bull market in government bonds. For too long deflation has rewarded Japan’s mostly aged holders of risk-free assets and cash at the expense of risk-takers and families with mortgages. If Mr Abe manages to reverse this corrosive process, he will deservedly earn a long spell at the microphone.
WASHINGTON ? The Obama administration secretly gave its blessing to arms shipments to Libyan rebels from Qatar last year, but American officials later grew alarmed as evidence grew that Qatar was turning some of the weapons over to Islamic militants, according to United States officials and foreign diplomats. オバマ政権は秘密裏に昨年、リビア反政府勢力向けのカタールからの武器の出荷を認めて いたが、そのあとでアメリカ政府高官は、カタール側が一部の武器をイスラム武装派に渡 していた証拠が現れて警戒するに至ったと米国政府高官や外交筋が語った。
No evidence has emerged linking the weapons provided by the Qataris during the uprising against Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi to the attack that killed four Americans at the United States diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya, in September. カダフィ大佐への反政府勢力にカタール側から渡された武器と、ベンガジ事件でアメリカ 領事館で外交官らが殺戮された事の間には、その関連を示す証拠は何もない。
But in the months before, the Obama administration clearly was worried about the consequences of its hidden hand in helping arm Libyan militants, concerns that have not previously been reported. The weapons and money from Qatar strengthened militant groups in Libya, allowing them to become a destabilizing force since the fall of the Qaddafi government. しかしながらベンガジ事件の数カ月前から、オバマ政権は明確にリビア反政府勢力への秘密 の支援について、その成り行きに憂慮していた。この事実は以前に報道されていない。 カタールからの武器と資金はリビアの反政府武装派を強化し、カダフィ政権崩壊後に彼らが 不安定化勢力となることを許した。
The experience in Libya has taken on new urgency as the administration considers whether to play a direct role in arming rebels in Syria, where weapons are flowing in from Qatar and other countries. オバマ政権がシリア反政府勢力への武器供与を考慮する中で、この経験はアメリカ政府が直 接的な役割を担うべきか、カタール経由のようなルートを取るべきか緊急の課題となった
The Obama administration did not initially raise objections when Qatar began shipping arms to opposition groups in Syria, even if it did not offer encouragement, according to current and former administration officials. But they said the United States has growing concerns that, just as in Libya, the Qataris are equipping some of the wrong militants. カタールがシリアの反政府勢力に武器を出荷した時、オバマ政権は最初は異議を唱えなかった。 前及び現政府高官によればオバマ政権はそれを奨励したわけではないが、いずれにせよ米国は カタールが一部の不適切な勢力を武装化したことに懸念を抱くに至った。
The United States, which had only small numbers of C.I.A. officers in Libya during the tumult of the rebellion, provided little oversight of the arms shipments. Within weeks of endorsing Qatar’s plan to send weapons there in spring 2011, the White House began receiving reports that they were going to Islamic militant groups. They were “more antidemocratic, more hard-line, closer to an extreme version of Islam” than the main rebel alliance in Libya, said a former Defense Department official. ・・・・ About that same time, Mahmoud Jibril, then the prime minister of the Libyan transitional government, expressed frustration to administration officials that the United States was allowing Qatar to arm extremist groups opposed to the new leadership, according to several American officials. They, like nearly a dozen current and former White House, diplomatic, intelligence, military and foreign officials, would speak only on the condition of anonymity for this article. (後略)
The problem here is government policy. Beijing engineered a spectacular stimulus in the wake of the financial crisis but misguidedly aimed it at investment and exports. Investment as a share of output was already exorbitant at 41% in 2004, yet went up to 46% in 2011. Just to compare, Japan's investment rate peaked at 36% and Korea's at 39% during their boom eras.
The stimulus, and all that investment in general, may have helped many capital- intensive businesses start projects, but what after that? With so much capital being invested, the marginal unit of investment was probably getting wasted. It made companies inefficient, which explains their losses.
This marginal unit matters for efficiency and hence growth, but the China bulls won't tell you that. They argue that China's capital stock is low, both relative to output and even more so relative to its huge population. But the amount of capital in China doesn't tell us anything. What matters is the flow of capital, and where it's flowing to.
The fundamental flaw in China's economy is that it doesn't serve its consumers. The flipside of its high investment rate is low consumption, down to 35% of output in 2011, from 45% a decade ago. This gets economic theory backward: We produce in order to consume and we invest in order to be able to produce more. A country cannot increase its investment relative to output forever. ・・・・
So the likely scenario China will see over the next few years is the share of consumption rising, but with overall growth weakening to at most 5% a year, as the investment share falls. A rising share of consumption won't drive strong growth and help China stay close to its previous rates of expansion, as the bulls like to think.(ry
"We have been trying hard to work with Russia to try to stop the bloodshed in Syria and start a political transition for a post-Assad Syrian future," Clinton told reporters in Dublin. "Events on the ground in Syria are accelerating and, we see that in many different ways. The pressure against the regime in and around Damascus seems to be increasing. We've made it very clear what our position is with respect to chemical weapons, and I think we will discuss that and many other aspects of what is needed to end the violence."
A senior U.S. official said the meeting focused on how to help Syria's political transition in "practical terms." Both Clinton and Lavrov supported Brahimi's efforts, and they agreed to a meeting chaired by the envoy next week that would include senior U.S. and Russian officials to discuss next steps. ttp://www.thonline.com/news/national_world/article_5dbc3b49-dd83-5df5-b6a5-5b745f56e44b.html As war shifts, Russia, U.S. talk Syria's future
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. EIA has just issued its Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013) Reference case, which highlights a growth in total U.S. energy production that exceeds growth in total U.S. energy consumption through 2040. "EIA's updated Reference case shows how evolving consumer preferences, improved technology, and economic changes are pushing the nation toward more domestic energy production, greater vehicle efficiency, greater use of clean energy, and reduced energy imports," said EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski.
●Crude oil production, especially from tight oil plays, rises sharply over the next decade. Domestic oil production will rise to 7.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019, up from less than 6 million bpd in 2011. 国内石油生産は2011年の日量600万バレルから2019年に750万バレルに拡大
●The United States becomes a net exporter of natural gas earlier than estimated a year ago 将来アメリカは天然ガス輸出に進むであろう
●Net imports of energy decline. The decline reflects increased domestic production of both petroleum and natural gas, increased use of biofuels, and lower demand resulting from the adoption of new vehicle fuel efficiency standards and rising energy prices. The net import share of total U.S. energy consumption falls to 9 percent in 2040 from 19 percent in 2011. 輸入エネルギーの国内消費にしめる比率は2011年の19%から2014年には9%にまで低下する であろう (後略)
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. added 146,000 jobs in November and the unemployment rate fell to 7.7%, the lowest level since December 2008, the Labor Department said Friday. Hurricane Sandy appeared to have little effect on hiring and employment last month, the government said. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected an increase of just 80,000 jobs because of the disruption caused by the storm. The unemployment rate was projected to hold steady at 7.9%. It fell mainly because 350,000 people dropped out of the labor force. Employment gains for October and September, meanwhile, were revised somewhat lower. The number of new jobs created in October was revised down to 138,000 from 171,000, while September's figure was revised down to 132,000 from 148,000. The biggest increase in hiring in November occurred in retail, professional services and leisure and hospitality. The construction and manufacturing sectors reduced employment. Average hourly wages rose 4 cents to $23.63 in November while the average workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours.
>>585 ttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/12/07/live-from-new-york-its-jobs-friday-20/?mod=WSJBlog 10:33 pmSandy Impactby Steven RussolilloAdd a Comment Labor Department says the storm didn't "substantively" impact the job figures this month. That's a bit of a shocker. Pretty much every economist on the planet was expecting huge distortions related to the storm, which the northeast region on Oct. 29.
>MR. TONER: The President said, I believe, “Any use or proliferation of chemical weapons >by the Syrian regime would cross a redline for the United States,” was his exact wording. >So if you’re looking for clarification on that --
>QUESTION: So it’s “use?” >MR. TONER: Use or proliferation of chemical weapons. >QUESTION: So they either have to use it or sell it before you guys would ? or that’s >the redline: using it, selling it, or giving it away? >MR. TONER: Correct.
先に中国政府の発表した、南支那海、東支那海での領海主張と、その領域への「不法 侵入」船舶への臨検や航路変更命令の主張について、WSJの準社説であル「レビュー& アウトルック」 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324640104578160782180728140.html REVIEW & OUTLOOK ASIA December 6, 2012, 10:55 a.m. ET China's Nationalist Wave Beijing's naval aggression is a threat to peace in the Pacific. 中国のナショナリストの潮流:中国政府の強硬な領海主張は太平洋の安寧への脅威
The risk of a serious naval confrontation in East Asia is rising. China recently announced guidelines, effective January 1, for its maritime "police" to board and seize foreign vessels in waters around the Paracel Islands, which are also claimed by Vietnam. On Tuesday, Hanoi responded with stepped up patrols and revealed that Chinese fishing boats had cut the cables of its seismic survey ship last week.
Philippines Foreign Minister Albert del Rosario revealed in an interview with the South China Morning Post published November 30 that China had communicated its intention to station ships permanently at the Scarborough Shoal, which is claimed by both countries and was the scene of a standoff earlier this year. Mr. del Rosario called China's behavior "dictatorial."
Beijing also continues to challenge Japan's control over the Senkaku Islands, known as the Diaoyus in Chinese. Chinese maritime surveillance and fisheries vessels loiter outside the 12-mile territorial limit, occasionally crossing inside to force the Japanese coast guard to respond.
When Beijing's campaign of assertiveness began three years ago, many observers believed it was either a miscalculation that would be corrected, or else a temporary phase related to jockeying for the recent leadership transition. It has proved to be neither. 3年前に、中国政府がこうした強硬な政策を始めた時、多くのオブザーバーはそれを何 かの計算違い、あるいは政権継承の時期に伴う一時的な画策であろうと見ていたのだが 今やそのどちらでもないことが(臨検実施の発表で)証明された。
What is driving Beijing? Chinese military men, who make up about 20% of the Central Committee, have become increasingly vocal about their desire to drive the U.S. out of their adjacent (and not-so adjacent) waters. The Communist Party's longstanding rhetoric about ending a "century of humiliation" at foreign hands makes such calls difficult to ignore. 中国政府の狙いは何か? 人民解放軍の勢力は中央政治局の20%を占めていて影響力 を増してきている。彼らは中国の隣接の海域(と、それほど隣接でもない海域)から 米国を追い出すことを主張している。中国共産党の長年のお題目である「(帝国主義 の列強による)数世紀に及ぶ屈辱を終わらせる」ために外国勢力からの開放を目指す というのは無視できないものである。
Another driver is the uneasy relationship between the military and their putative civilian masters. On Wednesday, new Chinese leader Xi Jinping publicly exhorted military officers to "put an end" to corruption and remain completely loyal to the Communist Party?a call that presumably would not have been necessary if such loyalty was not in doubt. もうひとつの動機は、推定される文民指導者と人民解放軍の穏やかならぬ関係で、水 曜日には習近平氏が軍部士官らに腐敗汚職を終わらせ、共産党に全面的な忠誠を誓う ように強く求めている。人民解放軍の党への忠誠が明確であれば、そういう要求は必 要では無かろうものを。
It's possible Mr. Xi is also uncomfortable with his navy's aggressive maneuvers. So far, however, the Party's response has been to buy off the military brass with huge annual budget increases. The new submarines and surface ships these budgets finance create pressure to deploy. Outgoing top leader Hu Jintao used his final report at last month's Party Congress to call for China to become a maritime power. 習近平氏が人民解放軍海軍の攻撃的政策を不愉快に思っているということも有り得る が、これまでのところ、党の問題への対応は軍の予算の大幅増額で人民解放軍幹部の 買収を図るというものであった。新規の潜水艦や艦船の建造は、それが配備されるべ き圧力を生む。胡錦濤氏は中国が海運の大国になるべきとしていた。 (略) For now, only the U.S. Seventh Fleet can deter Beijing's push to expand its territory. 今や中国政府の領海の拡張の圧力を阻む事のできるものは米国第7艦隊のみである
To its credit, the Obama Administration has begun to shed the traditional U.S. posture of strategic ambiguity on these disputes. The Journal reported last week that a delegation to Beijing of retired officials led by former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage delivered the message that while the U.S. has remained neutral on the sovereignty issue, it is treaty-bound to defend Japan's control over the Senkakus. The U.S. Senate followed Friday with a vote for an amendment to reaffirm that commitment. オバマ政権はこの問題に対して、伝統的な「戦略的曖昧さ」の態度を変更している。 WSJの報道したように、先週リチャード・アーミテージが中国政府に米国のメッセージ を届けている。米国は尖閣問題で中立の態度を保つものの、日本の尖閣諸島の支配に 関して日米安保条約に従って防衛を行う。米国上院は金曜日にこのメッセージを確認 する決議を行なっている。
Across Asia, alarm bells are ringing that Beijing has abandoned Deng Xiaoping's pragmatic internationalism. One can hope Mr. Xi will be willing and able to rein in his military's increasing bellicosity. That is more likely if the U.S. and its allies remain united and determined to deter it. 中国がケ小平のセットした実用的国際主義を捨てたのではとの警鐘が鳴り始めている。 習近平が人民解放軍の好戦的態度を鎮めることができることが期待されるのだが、 米国と同盟国が一致してこの問題に対処することがより効果的であろう。
Perhaps most important is the revival of nationalism as a major theme in Chinese rhetoric. Mr. Xi has adopted "revival of the nation" as his first major slogan, signaling his intention to be a reform-oriented nationalist. Last week he led the Politburo Standing Committee on a visit to an exhibition on foreign imperialism at the National Museum, and his remarks suggest he wants to harness patriotic feeling to overcome political opposition. おそらくは、最も重要なことはナショナリズムが中国のレトリックにおいて主要なテーマ として復活したことである。習近平氏が「国家のリバイバル」をスローガンにするのであ れば、彼は改革指向のナショナリストを意図していることになる。先週彼は政治局常務委 を率いて国立博物館を訪ね、外国(列強)の帝国主義の展示会を見ている。彼のコメント は彼が政治的な敵対勢力を抑えるために愛国を利用する意志を示唆している。
この評論では、シナリオ(2)と(3)の場合に中国と米国の利害対立が起こるとして: The latter two scenarios pose key economic dangers. China and the United States could drift apart in a way that reduces the value of the bilateral economic relationship.
Thus, U.S. policy should revolve around how to achieve the first optimistic scenario and avoid the third and most dangerous possibility. Much of the change must take place within China: reforms of monetary and currency policy, removal of trade barriers, and opening the nation to free flows of capital, ideas, and political debates. On the economic side, the United States should increase national savings to reduce dependence on foreign capital and narrow the trade deficit. This would both provide a market-based impetus to move China away from export-led growth and help avoid populist responses in both countries that could spur a trade war. At the same time, the United States must prepare for the continued political and strategic tensions of the more pessimistic scenarios.
ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20650582 8 December 2012 Last updated at 09:25 GMT UK's Hague confirms 'evidence' of Syria chemical arms plans William Hague says there will be "serious consequences" if Syria uses chemical weapons 英国のHague外相「シリアが化学兵器の準備を進めている証拠がある」「もし使用するなら 深刻な結果が待っている」 BBC
British Foreign Secretary William Hague says the UK and the US have seen evidence that Syria is preparing to use chemical weapons. Separately, western military sources in the Gulf have told the BBC that Syria's chemical weapons are concentrated at 5 airbases and are being closely watched.
CAIRO ? Struggling to quell street protests and political violence, President Mohamed Morsi is moving to impose a version of martial law by calling on the armed forces to keep order and authorizing soldiers to arrest civilians, Egyptian state media announced Saturday.
If Mr. Morsi goes through with the plan, it would represent a historic role reversal. Before the ouster of Hosni Mubarak last year, Egypt’s military- backed authoritarian presidents had spent six decades warning against the threat of an Islamist takeover and using martial law to hold onto their power. Mr. Morsi, a former leader of the once-banned Muslim Brotherhood, and many of his fellow Islamists were jailed under those decrees for their opposition to the government.
A turn back to the military would come just four months after Mr. Morsi managed to pry political power out of the hands of the generals, who refused for months after his election to allow him full presidential power.
The flagship state newspaper Al Ahram reported that Mr. Morsi “will soon issue a decision for the participation of the armed forces in the duties of maintaining security and protection of vital state institutions.” エジプトの新聞Al AhramはMorsi大統領が、早期に軍を治安維持のために参加させる 決定を行うと見られると報じた
The military would maintain its expanded role until the completion of a referendum on a draft constitution next Saturday and the election of a new Parliament expected two months after that.
The danger that Syrian ruler Bashar Assad will now resort to chemical warfare shot up Saturday afternoon, Dec. 8, after the rebels captured the “chloride factory” at Al Safira east of Aleppo. This is a codename for the Syrian army’s biggest chemical weapons store and base, which also houses Syrian Scud D missiles armed with chemical warheads adjusted to fire at Israel. シリアの有する化学弾頭とイスラエル向けの発射を想定したスカッドDの貯蔵庫である アレッポ郊外の「塩素工場」と呼ばれる軍の最大の(貯蔵庫)基地である拠点を反政府 勢力が土曜日に襲撃し、アサド大統領が化学爆弾を使用する危険が高まっている。
Assad’s warning to the rebels not to fight with chemical weapons is taken as a means of justifying his own resort to chemical weapons and brought this threat closer than ever before. The West, Israel and Syria’s other neighbors have gone on elevated preparedness. DEBKAfile file: The fall of Al Safira into rebel hands crosses a red line and places the Assad regime in direct peril. この基地、Al Safiraが反政府勢力の手に落ちるならアサド政権にとって一線を越えるこ とになり、アサド政権の直接的危機を意味する。アサド大統領は反政府側に化学爆弾に 対して戦闘するなと警告したが、これは彼の化学爆弾使用への正当化に使われるのかも しれない
Possession of the chemical-tipped Scuds gives the rebels their strongest weapon for forcing the Syria army to capitulate. 化学弾頭付きのスカッドを反政府側が抑えるなら最大規模の武器を手に入れることになり 政府軍を降伏させるに有効である
British Foreign Secretary William Hague said earlier Saturday that the UK and the US have seen evidence that Syria is preparing to use chemical weapons. There was enough evidence from intelligence sources to know “that they need a warning,” he said at a security conference in Bahrain. "The President of the United Sates warned of serious consequences and he meant it,” said the British minister. British intelligence sources told the BBC that Syria's chemical weapons are concentrated at five air bases and are being closely watched. They said contingency plans have been drawn up if they show signs of being readied to be loaded and used as weapons. DEBKAfile reported this week that US British and French air, sea and marine forces are concentrated opposition Syrian shores and across its Turkish and Jordanian borders. シリアのトルコ国境及びヨルダン国境付近には英仏の空海軍と海兵隊が終結し警戒を高め ている。化学爆弾の動向は英米など西欧諸国が注視している;
CAIRO -- Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi withdrew part of a controversial declaration that awarded him near absolute power, a limited concession to protesters whose two-week-long campaign had gridlocked Egyptian politics. But the new declaration preserves next Saturday as the date of a referendum on a divisive proposed constitution, skirting a key demand of Mr. Morsi's opponents. Selim Al Awa, a former presidential candidate and one of the lead negotiators between Mr. Morsi and his opponents, announced the new declaration in a news conference just past midnight on Sunday morning. It still seemed unlikely that Mr. Morsi's partial climbdown would satisfy liberal-leaning politicians. 大統領の先の宣言の一部の破棄がリベラル側の政治家たちを満足させることは有りそ うにないとみられる。
The concession marks only a mild sacrifice for Mr. Morsi, say the president's mostly liberal critics, because the power-expanding decree had already prevented Egypt's Supreme Constitutional Court from dissolving the constitutional drafting committee. Mr. Morsi and his Islamist allies have said the court is stocked with former regime loyalists inimical to Egypt's democratic reforms.
The court had been expected to rule on the legitimacy of the constitutional drafting committee last Sunday, but delayed the decision after Islamist protesters blocked the court's entryway. With the constitution drafted and its referendum date set, the founding document's passage is now nearly certain, said some secular-minded activists.
"It was expected all along that he would do that at the last minute," said Bassem Sabry, a secular-leaning blogger and political analyst, of Mr. Morsi's decision. "After he got everything he wanted from the decree, he rescinded the decree and got some political points."
The latest government crisis was triggered on Thursday when Mr Berlusconi’s party abstained or stayed away from voting on two government reform bills, effectively ending its support for Mr Monti’s government without moving to the point of bringing it down. Mr Monti’s surprise declaration followed remarks earlier on Saturday by Mr Berlusconi who ended weeks of speculation in confirming that he planned to run for prime minister again in next year’s general elections. 現政権の危機は木曜日にベルルスコーニの党が政府提出の2つの改革法案への投票 に参加しないことを決めたことで実質的に政権の支持を撤回したことに依って発生。 首相の辞意表明の後でベルルスコーニの来年の選挙への出馬、首相への挑戦の表明 が続いた。
Members of Mr Berlusconi’s party said they expected the PDL to run an anti -austerity campaign proposing tax and spending cuts, and adopt a pro- European platform that would be critical of Germany’s economic dominance over weaker eurozone members. ベルルスコーニの党のメンバーは政府の緊縮財政政策に反対し減税と支出削減、 プロヨーロピアン・プラットフォームに適合する政策を訴えるという。
Some senior politicians from the rightwing faction of Mr Berlusconi’s party had opposed his candidacy, setting the scene for a prolonged power struggle within the party that had left it paralysed and in disarray. But opposition relented when Mr Berlusconi ? who represents a major source of PDL funding ? threatened to leave and form his own party. ベルルスコーニの党内ではベルルスコーニの復活に反対する右派の政治家がいた ものの、ベルルスコーニが資金提供の主要部分をしめる党から抜けて新党を作る 意志を見せたため党内の反対派が抑えられたという。
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) ? Egypt’s military leaders warned that a failure of Islamist and secular factions to overcome conflicts with peaceful dialogue would lead to “disastrous consequences” for the country, according to media reports Saturday. “Anything other than that will force us into a dark tunnel with disastrous consequences; something which we won’t allow,” said an unnamed military official on Egyptian state television Saturday. エジプト国営TVで、土曜日に軍の士官が現状の政治的対立について、イスラミストと 世俗派が対話に依って平和裏に問題を処理できないなら「破滅的な結末に至るだろう」 と述べた。「そうした対話以外の道に進むのであれば、軍が許容できないような破滅 的な結末に至り、我々は長く暗いトンネルに入ることになる」
イタリアのマリオ・モンティ首相の辞意表明、欧州市場への影響について Steen Jakobsen(Chief Economist & CIO Saxo Bank)のブログ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/club-meds-mastermind-monti-resigns-1883572080 In 2012, the Club Med managed to wring considerable concessions from Germany and the EU Commission and Monti was clearly the most instrumental in this process, as he is seen by Brussels insiders is seen as the 'puppet master' of Rajoy, Hollande and Draghi. Indeed, Monti’s influence cannot be overestimated, even if he was the embodiment of extend-and-pretend. 2012年には地中海クラブ(スペイン、イタリア、フランス)はドイツとEUコミッショナー から。かなりの譲歩を得たのだが、モンティはその実現に貢献した。彼の影響というのは 過小評価されるべきではない。
When asked recently for two things that would help Europe back to normalization, he answered: stabile government and Euro bonds. Is it not then ironic that he is now the very reason that politics again are in the spotlight and that Euro bonds have never been further away as Berlusconi and the Northern League are certain to call for the reintroduction of the lira. It appears Italy is suddenly ready to steal the headlines from Greece and Spain as a potential source of EU tail risk. 欧州の経済金融の正常化のために何が必要かと問われて、彼は安定した政権とユーロボンド と答えている。今やイタリアの政治が不安定化していて、ユーロボンドというアイデアは ベルルスコーニや北部同盟がリラへの復帰を言うに至って、遥かに遠いものとなった。 イタリアは突然のことにギリシャやスペインから(ユーロ離脱の)テール・リスクのヘッド ラインを分捕るものになった。
The social tensions in Italy, Spain and Portugal are about to explode. The desperate youth will look for more radical politicians to represent their interests, a phenomenon that is unfortunately always seen in cases of severe economic strife.
The Sunday opening in Sydney should see EURUSD under pressure - but the more important will be the reaction in fixed income markets on Monday, as the ECB could eventually be mobilized to activate the OTM for Italy rather than Spain. Rumours floated late Friday that Italy would ask for aid. At the time, it made no real sense, but with this week-end’s changes it could be a reality before 2012 is done. シドニーの外為市場が始まれはユーロの対ドル相場に圧力のかかることであろうが、しかし より重要なことは月曜日の債券市場のリアクションである。ECBは場合に応じてイタリアの 為にOTFに介入するかもしれない。金曜日にはイタリアの支援要請という噂が流れていた。 その時点では噂は現実的ではなかったが、週末の事件でそれが年内にもあり得るように 思える。
A comment from our Milan office CEO Gian Paolo Bazzani: "About Berlusconi, the Corriere della Sera wrote that this is the beginning of the election campaign and also the end of Berlusconi as leader of the moderate area. The next election, probably on 10/11 March, will formalize the end of Berlusconism. The risk is that nobody will have enough votes to drive the Parliament in 2013. Also the Democratic Party (a blend of very different forces) that probably will be the first party in Italy, will have to negotiate with small political forces to have the majority. Confusion and economic weakness is a very bad cocktail" ミラノのGian Paolo Bazzaniのコメント:Corriere della Seraはベルルスコーニについて、 これは選挙キャンペーンの始まりであり、穏健派政治家の終わりであると書いている。次回 選挙は恐らく3月10日か11日で、ベルルスコーニ主義の終わりを示す。問題は2013年の議会で 誰も充分な過半数を持ていない事態のくること。民主党は各種勢力の寄せ集めで恐らく第一 党になろうけれど、少数党との連立協議を必要とする。混乱と弱い経済というのは大変悪い カクテルである。
*具体的に、どういう品質不良かといえば: They said they are seeing the use of substandard materials for the metal contact lines, backsheets and encapsulants for protecting each panel from UV radiation and other environmental damage, and for insulating wire cables. The process of soldering, or connecting the cells together inside a panel, also is a source of lousy workmanship. 金属の接点部分の材質不良、バックシートやパネルのカプセルの材質不良、配線の絶縁材の 不良、セルの組立接続配線作業の不良、・・
SolarBuyer, which sends people with solar manufacturing experience to do factory checks on behalf of project developers and investors, is seeing an average defect rate of 8.8 percent for solar panels that roll out of manufacturing plants, said Ian Gregory, managing director of the Boston-based company. The spread of the defect rates range from 5.5 percent to 22 percent. “Industry as a whole the quality is suffering. You think you are going bankrupt in three months, so your priority will be on cash flows and not quality,” said Jenya Meydbray, CEO of PV Evolution Labs, which performs reliability testing of solar panels. “That means cutting corners to get a few cents per watt out of your cost so that you can start to squeeze out a little bit of the margin.”
What does all this mean to developer and bankers? At the conference, Matthay talked about negotiating stringent warranties because investors are counting on a power project to produce a steady stream of electricity for over 20 years. Meydbray said some investors don’t put much stock in warranties these days given dozens of companies have filed for bankruptcies and a few hundred more are expected to go out of business or get bought in the next few years. Manufacturers are aware that they may have more to prove these days, so they are seeking more reliability verifications from PV Evolution Labs and other similar service providers. 太陽光発電プロジェクトは、パネルが20年にわたって寿命を保つことを前提にしているので 太陽光パネル製造者に品質保証契約を求める動きがある。しかし、太陽光パネルメーカーの 倒産が増えていて生き残るメーカーが少なくなるので、この保証に頼るだけでは問題が解決 しない。パネルの品質チェックや品質の検証を行うサービスも登場している(後略)
(Reuters) - Egypt's main opposition coalition rejected on Sunday Islamist President Mohamed Mursi's plan for a constitutional referendum this week, saying it risked dragging the country into "violent confrontation". エジプト野党連合はMursi大統領の提案している憲法の国民投票について、その実施 は「暴力的な衝突を引き起こす」として是を拒否した。
But some measures taken under the decree remain in force and the president has insisted the referendum go ahead on December 15. Liberal opposition leader Ahmed Said earlier described the race to a referendum as an "act of war" against Egyptians. 大統領は12月15日の国民投票を提案しているが、リベラル勢力の代表であるAhmed Said はこれをエジプト国民を内戦に進ませるものと述べている
Egypt is torn between Islamists, who were suppressed for decades, and their rivals, who fear religious conservatives want to squeeze out other voices and restrict social freedoms. Many Egyptians just crave stability and economic recovery. Brotherhood spokesman Mahmoud Ghozlan said the scrapping of Mursi's decree had removed any reason for controversy. "We ask others to announce their acceptance of the referendum result," he said on the group's Facebook page, asking whether the opposition would accept "the basics of democracy". 多くのエジプト国民は政治の安定と経済の回復を求めるが、エジプトはイスラミストと リベラル派の野党に分断されている。ムスリム同胞団は大統領を支持し、国民投票と その結果の承認を求めている。
The cancellation of Mursi's decree, announced after a "national dialogue" on Saturday boycotted by almost all the president's critics, has not bridged a deep political divide. 大統領は先の大統領令の一部を撤回したが、大統領の求めた対話についてはほぼすべて の野党勢力が是を拒否している。両者の対話の橋渡しの起こるめどは立たない。
The military, which led Egypt's transition for 16 turbulent months after Mubarak fell, told feuding factions on Saturday that only dialogue could avert "catastrophe". But a military source said these remarks did not herald an army takeover. エジプト軍は両勢力の対話のみが破滅的な対立を回避できると土曜日に声明を出している。 しかし軍は政治的な主導権を採る意図は無いとしている。
On Sept. 6 a Libyan ship "carrying the largest consignment of weapons" for Syrian rebels docked in southern Turkey. The ship's captain was "a Libyan from Benghazi" who worked for the new Libyan government. The man who organized that shipment, Tripoli Military Council head Abdelhakim Belhadj, worked directly with Stevens during the Libyan revolution. 9月6日にリビア船籍の船舶が「大規模な武器類を搭載して」シリアの反政府勢力に向け てトルコの南部に入港している。船長のリビア人は「ベンガジからのリビア人」で リビア政府のもとで働いている。この輸送を企てたトリポリの軍事カウンシルのトップ であるAbdelhakim Belhadjはリビア革命当時にアメリカ大使に直接的に協力している。
Stevens' last meeting on Sept. 11 was with Turkish Consul General Ali Sait Akin, and a source told Fox News that Stevens was in Benghazi "to negotiate a weapons transfer in an effort to get SA-7 missiles out of the hands of Libya-based extremists." ベンガジ事件で殺戮されたSteven大使の9月11日の会議は、トルコの Ali Sait Akin 総領事とのもので、FOXニュースの報道によればアメリカ大使は「SA-7ミサイルをリビア の過激派から入手して、それをシリアに輸送する交渉」であったという(後略)
>>849 あった Philippines backs rearming of Japan ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/250430bc-41ba-11e2-a8c3-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2EbryBXUU The Philippines would strongly support a rearmed Japan shorn of its pacifist constitution as a counterweight to the growing military assertiveness of China, according to the Philippine -foreign minister. “We would welcome that very much,” Albert del Rosario told the Financial Times in an interview. “We are looking for balancing factors in the region and Japan could be a significant balancing factor.” 時事になってるのはこの部分だね。
>The unusual statement, which risks upsetting Beijing, とか >Support from other Asian nations for a rearmed Japan could embolden Mr Abe to change the constitution. 辺りに困惑がよく現れててすごく面白かったw ていうか、フィリピンの発言なのに南沙諸島の状況の分析より先に日本の総選挙の話を出してんじゃねーよw DPの関心事はそうなんだろうけど。
The Philippines would strongly support a rearmed Japan shorn of its pacifist constitution as a counterweight to the growing military assertiveness of China, according to the Philippine -foreign minister.
“We would welcome that very much,” Albert del Rosario told the Financial Times in an interview. “We are looking for balancing factors in the region and Japan could be a significant balancing factor.”
<ちょっと興味深いのは以下の部分> Support from other Asian nations for a rearmed Japan could embolden Mr Abe to change the constitution. Beijing has long raised the spectre of a return of Japanese militarism. The attitude towards Japanese rearmament in the Philippines, itself colonised by Japan, suggests regional fears of an assertive China may be beginning to trump memories of Japan’s aggressive wartime actions. 中国様は日本の軍国主義復活を問題視してきたが、日本の軍備強化に対するフィリピン の支持は、フィリピンが日本に侵略された過去を持つだけに、アジアの国にとって日本 (の軍国主義)ではなく中国の強硬な姿勢が脅威であることを示していて、安倍氏の 憲法改正論を支援する鴨・・・
Despite Singaporean elder statesman Lee Kuan Yew's famous warning to Washington that encouraging Japan to play a larger security role is like giving a former alcoholic a rum bonbon, Singapore is now at the forefront of efforts to expand Japan's political and security role in Southeast Asia; Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand have followed suit.
The tumultuous road to a stable democratic system of government in Egypt is passing through one of its most decisive stages these days, with most of the main political actors revealing their amateurism more than anything else. This is a hard but necessary learning process, as the main protagonists refuse to accept that hard-line and absolutist positions are inappropriate during this delicate transition. エジプトでは政権運営のプロが現在の過渡的状況の中で、(イスラミストの)ハード ライン政策、絶対主義を受け入れることを拒否しているために、政治の主要なプレイ アーたちは素人丸出しで、政策の断行を進めようとしている。 ・・・ The Muslim Brotherhood leaders who have spent much of the last 25 years in and out of jail were catapulted into the presidency without any previous experience in managing national politics. President Mohammad Mursi is revealing his inability to act as the president of all Egyptians and the shepherd of a historic constitutional transition in which basic governance institutions are being built. ムスリム同胞団は過去25年間、投獄されたり出獄したりを繰り返してきたので、国政 を運用する経験を全く有せず、いきなり大統領府を手に入れているわけで、Mursi 大 統領はエジプトのすべての国民の為に働くという能力の無さを示している。国の統治 の基礎を決める歴史的な憲法改定にあたって、そうした能力がない。
Unlike Nelson Mandela who spent decades in jail and then showed his compassion, flexibility and statesmanship when he became president of South Africa, Mursi seems focused on pushing through his agenda (presumably also the Brotherhood’s) and is unable at this stage to act as the magnanimous leader of all Egyptians. 数十年の獄中生活のあとで思いやりや柔軟性を発揮し政治家としての威厳を示したネルソ ン・マンデラとは異なって、Mursi大統領はムスリム同胞団と一致する彼のアジェンダを 推し進めることのみに焦点をあわせていて、エジプト国民にとっての高尚な指導者として 行動することが出来ない。 (略) The opposition is equally disappointing, given their instant, absolutist demand that Mursi annul his decree and delay and referendum beyond its schedule Dec. 15 date. The nonviolent public demonstrations the opposition has launched are perfectly acceptable means of protest, but they represent a segment of Egypt’s population that is probably a minority. 反政府側(リベラル勢力)も同じように失望させられるもので、大統領に宣言の絶対的な 撤回をもとめ、国民投票の先送りを求める。非暴力の抗議行動は完全に受入可能であるが しかしながら、おそらくは、彼らはエジプト国民のマイノリティを代表している。 (略) So far, the president has shown no signs of this latter course, which is damaging him personally, the Muslim Brotherhood, and all of Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood’s journey directly from jail to the presidency is proving difficult for Mursi, and other Egyptians are not helping him very much either. Egypt will emerge from this stronger and wiser, but there will be blood and damage on the way. ムスリム同胞団が獄中から出ていきなり政権を握ったために、大統領は統治が困難で、他 の勢力も大統領を支援していない。エジプトは将来より強く賢くなるであろうけれど、そ うなる前に血と破壊がありそうだ。