The onslaught in the Syrian city of Homs has prompted Turkey to call for an international conference. Ahmet Davutoglu, the Turkish foreign minister, said on Wednesday that if the UN cannot protect Syrian civilians, then like-minded countries need to find another way. ttp://blogs.aljazeera.net/liveblog/Syria アルジャジーラ、シリアライブブログ
Representatives of eurozone bail-out lenders were scrambling on Thursday to finalise an agreement with the Greek government after last-minute demands by Athens threatened to upend the deal. According to people briefed on the talks between lenders and Greek leaders, which ended early on Thursday morning, Lucas Papademos, the Greek prime minister, has insisted on revising budget targets for 2014 and only informed European negotiators at 6am. ギリシャ政府とトロイカ(EU,IMF,ECB)のギリシャ救済パッケージの交渉(先週中に纏まるはずであったもの)が難航中。交渉の 状況ブリーフィングを受けたソースに依れば、パパデモス首相は徹夜交渉の中、木曜日の午前6時になって2014年のギリシャ国家 予算の赤字削減目標値の変更を求めてきた。
The demand, which would have Athens reaching a primary budget surplus of 4.5 per cent by 2014, has forced officials in the so-called troika ? the International Monetary Fund, European Commission, and European Central Bank ? to revise their debt sustainability analysis. The key document may now not be completed in time for Thursday evening’s meeting of eurozone finance ministers. The troika debt analysis is the central document needed to determine how big Greece’s new bail-out must be. A second aid programme cannot be agreed by finance ministers without it. この目標値というのは2014年のギリシャ国家財政で4.5%の黒字に達するというもの。この数字はトロイカのギリシャ救済計画の 基本であるため、目標値で合意できなければ救済パッケージの合意が得られない。交渉の現状では木曜夕方のユーロ圏財相会議 までにギリシャとの合意文書が作成できないかもしれない。
There has been mounting frustration in other European capitals, including Brussels, where officials had hoped to get a deal agreed last weekend so that they could quickly execute the central pillar of the deal ? a ?200bn bond swap that will see private Greek debt holders lose half their holdings, wiping ?100bn off Athens’ ?350bn debt pile. ギリシャとのトロイカの交渉の難航に欧州諸国政府のフラストレーションが高まっている。本来は先週中に交渉が合意に達して 2000億ユーロの債務スワップ(1000億ユーロの債務カットを伴う)を実施するはずであった。
The all-night negotiations focused on one paragraph in the bail-out agreement on pensions and one paragraph on non-wage labour costs, officials said. Officials briefed on the discussions said Antonis Samaras, head of the centre-right New Democracy party and Greece’s presumptive next prime minister, is continuing to hold out against signing a “letter of assurance” demanded by eurozone lenders committing all major party leaders to stick to the programme. 徹夜交渉の焦点は救済パッケージの条件である年金の削減と賃金以外の労務費の削減に関わるものという。交渉過程のブリーフィ ングを受けたソースに依れば、ギリシャの野党、新民主党の党首である Antonis Samaras(次期選挙で首相になる可能性が大きい) は合意の確約書へのサインを拒んでいるという。(後略)
PARIS/HAMBURG Feb 9 (Reuters) - Iran is seeking to close grain purchases using gold and oil as payment, and has paid in yen for a large volume of wheat in its first deal since western sanctions against Tehran started choking imports of food staples, European wheat exporters said. Iran bought at least 200,000 tonnes of soft wheat on the world market last week for prompt delivery from private sellers - mostly of Australian origin - but some traders said the United States could possibly account for part of the volume.
The sanctions have drastically cut its ability to obtain euro and dollar denominated financing, forcing Tehran to find alternative ways to pay for its imports. 経済制裁措置のため、イランはドルやユーロ建ての金融措置を講じる能力がドラスチックに低下し、輸入代金の決済にゴールド などをあてる事態にいたっている。
Traders believed the Iranian government had used companies based in Switzerland capable of financing themselves in Asia, and used yen-based contracts to finance the 200,000-tonne deal. 輸出業者によればイラン政府はスイスに本拠を置く金融機関を使い円建ての契約を20万トンの穀物輸入に用いた。
Leaders of the three political parties backing Greece’s caretaker government agreed Thursday on an austerity package to comply with demands set by international creditors for another bailout deal, according to a spokesman for Prime Minister Lucas Papademos’ office. “An agreement among political leaders has been reached on all matters. A statement will come out shortly,” the spokesman said
FTのライブブログ ttp://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2012/02/eurozone-crisis-live-blog-23/#axzz1lsssMnon 13.46 Mario Draghi says: “A few minutes ago I got a call from the prime minister of Greece saying that an agreement has been reached and has been endorsed by the major parties.” Eurozone finance ministers will discuss the deal and next steps at their meeting this evening, he adds. ドラギECB総裁「数分前にギリシャの首相から電話があり、政党間合意が成立した」ユーロ圏財相会議はギリシャ向け救済策と 次のステップについて今夕議論する
>>72 ttp://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2012/02/eurozone-crisis-live-blog-23/#axzz1lsssMnon There have been suggestions that the ECB might get round restrictions on taking losses on Greek bonds to help lower Greece’s troublesome debt-to-GDP ratio (see 14.06) by shifting its bonds to the European Financial Stability facility, the eurozone’s rescue fund. Ralph, who knows more about the working of central banks than is perhaps healthy, asked whether such a move would represent “monetary financing” ? which is illegal under eurozone law. Draghi responded:
“The EFSF is like governments. If you give money to governments then that’s monetary financing… If you make a loss on these sales, this is monetary financing.”
That seems pretty clear: central bank speak for “no can do”. But just before the end of the press conference Draghi elaborated on the same point: “If the ECB distributes profits to some of its members … that’s not monetary financing.”
シンクタンク、ヘリテージ財団の東アジア専門家である Bruce Klingnerが、沖縄の海兵隊をめぐる新たなオバマ政権の対日政策 について、大変批判的な評論を書いている。アメリカの保守派がこの問題を如何に見ているかを考える上で参考になると思ふ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/02/possible-move-of-okinawa-marines-to-guam-cuts-military-capability-in-asia White House Deal with Japan Risks Military Capability in Asia By Bruce Klingner February 8, 2012 オバマ政権の沖縄基地・海兵隊問題に対する政策はアジアにおける軍事能力のリスクとなる By Bruce Klingner ヘリテージ財団
On February 8, the United States and Japan jointly announced changes to the existing bilateral accord for realigning U.S. Marines on Okinawa. While both sides affirmed commitment to relocating a Marine air unit on the island, more significantly, the Obama Administration abandoned longstanding U.S. insistence that Japan fulfill pre-conditional commitments prior to Washington removing 8,000 Marines from Okinawa and returning U.S. bases to local control.
As a result, the U.S. has needlessly compromised military capabilities and significant negotiating leverage in favor of budgetary and political considerations. By de-linking the interconnected clauses of the accord, Japan achieved benefits earlier and without fulfilling the preconditions required by the original agreement. In return, the U.S. received nothing more tangible than yet another vague Japanese affirmation of its promise to make progress toward eventually fulfilling its commitments.
●Few Details in Announced Revision ●What Is Driving the Deal? ●Self-Imposed Injuries ●What Do Okinawa Critics Want? ●What the U.S. Should Do ●Correcting a Mistake
De-linking the components of the Guam Agreement was a mistake, since it did not provide the U.S. any tangible benefits. Moreover, it signaled to Okinawan opponents of the accord that the U.S. is more willing to provide concessions as a result of massive cuts to the defense budget. If the U.S. wants to maintain the level of readiness required to respond to a crisis in Asia, it should start correcting the mistake of offering concessions on Okinawa that have not been reciprocated.
It’s been 34 years since the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission issued a new operating license for a nuclear reactor. Not, that is, since before the partial meltdown at Three Mile Island in 1979.
Finally, the agency is set to move ahead. In December, it approved the design of a so-called generation III-plus reactor, the Westinghouse AP1000. Soon the NRC is expected to license four of these, two in South Carolina and two in Georgia. That’s promising news for the U.S.’s energy future.
So-called generation III-plus reactors such as the AP1000 and Areva’s European Pressurized Reactor account for most of those being built and planned worldwide. Although the U.S. will have only a handful, more than 200 are in the works in 30 other countries. China will build about a third of them, and Russia and India each foresee adding more than 20.
More promising still are generation-IV reactors. Many varieties of these are being engineered, but in general they will be smaller and use elements such as helium or sodium, rather than water, for cooling. They are expected to operate safely and efficiently, and consume more of their fuel (to produce less waste). ・・・・ We endorse President Barack Obama’s commitment to include nuclear in his goal to have 80 percent of U.S. electricity come from low-carbon sources by 2035. If, under that scenario, coal’s contribution were cut by more than half and natural gas and nuclear were used most heavily to replace it, then 105 new nuclear generators would need to be built by 2035, according to a Bloomberg Government analysis.
>Although the U.S. will have only a handful, more than 200 are in the works in 30 other countries. China will build >about a third of them, and Russia and India each foresee adding more than 20.
重慶市の副市長の王立軍の失脚事件について、WSJアジア版のレビュー&アウトルック ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203646004577212713322221878.html REVIEW & OUTLOOK ASIAFEBRUARY 10, 2012 Live Tweeting China's Power Struggle Communist Party intrigue meets the Internet age.
Chinese netizens immediately ridiculed this transparent euphemism for detention. The leading theory both online and among serious China watchers is that Mr. Wang was removed by the central government to discredit his boss. "The first shiv was squarely stuck into flamboyant Chongqing Party Secretary Bo Xilai," wrote Arthur Kroeber in a report for the research firm Dragonomics, adding that we are witnessing the beginning of a leadership struggle. ・・・ Beijing is walking a fine line, trying to step up its use of the media, traditional and online, to bolster the Party's popularity without being contaminated by the feedback from a population that is becoming politically engaged. Mr. Bo's fate in the coming months will be an indicator of whether the Communist Party can maintain this contradiction, and if so whether it will create greater public cynicism.
The 191-page document, released under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), consists of the FBI’s 1991 background investigation of Steve Jobs for an appointed position on the U.S. President’s Export Council. The release also includes documents related to a 1985 investigation of a bomb threat against Apple.
Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos pressed domestic political leaders to yield to conditions for a bailout, saying a refusal would open the way for the country’s exit from the euro. Venizelos said his euro-area counterparts refused to approve a second aid package for Greece yesterday at an emergency meeting because the government fell short of austerity demands and because of a lack of assurances by Greek party leaders that they will stick to their commitments after elections due as soon as April. Another extraordinary assembly of the ministers was set for Feb. 15. ユーロ圏財相会議に出席したギリシャのEvangelos Venizelos財相は自国の政治家に対して救済策の条件を認めるように求めた。 それを拒否することはギリシャのユーロからの離脱につながるとした。財相に依れば、会議は第二次救済パッケージを承認せず、 それはギリシャ政府の財政緊縮政策は不十分であるため、またギリシャの政治からが4月の選挙に鑑みて財政緊縮策への保証に欠 ける為である。2月15日の緊急財相会議で再度検討を行う。
“From today until the next meeting of the eurogroup, our country, our homeland, our society has to think and make a definitive, strategic decision,” Venizelos, 55, told reporters after the Brussels talks. “If we see the salvation and future of the country in the euro area, in Europe, we have to do whatever we have to do to get the program approved.” 「次回の財相会議までに、ユーロ圏と我が国、我々の社会は熟慮して断固たる結論を出さなくてはならない」「我々がユーロ圏 に留まるために、我々は救済策の承認に必要な事をやらなくてはならない」
The standoff puts the spotlight on the leaders of the three Greek political parties backing the caretaker government of Prime Minister Lucas Papademos, a former European Central Bank vice president. Haggling over austerity measures between Papademos and the “troika” of the European Commission, ECB and International Monetary Fund stalled for days over pension cuts until the premier announced a “general political agreement” hours before yesterday’s Brussels meeting. Papandreou’s Referendum It’s not the first time the financial crisis that erupted in 2009 raised the possibility of a fracture of the currency zone. The 17-nation euro area’s rules neither permit nor foresee an exit by a member. Then-Premier George Papandreou dropped a call for a referendum on austerity last November when European leaders said it could lead to Greece quitting the euro.
Venizelos said yesterday’s euro-area gathering left no more room for political games in Greece over budget policy. The Papademos administration is backed by Socialist Pasok party led by Papandreou, New Democracy under Antonis Samaras and Laos headed by George Karatzaferis. Venizelos財相によれば、ユーロ圏財相会議はギリシャには財政政策についての政治ゲームを行う余地を残していないという。
“There were many objections from many countries based on the fact that we didn’t fully complete in cooperation with the troika the catalogue of additional fiscal measures that must be taken,” said Venizelos, a Pasok leader. “But the main thing is that the eurogroup took serious note of the fact that there haven’t yet been written, explicit and unequivocal pledges from the leaders of all the parties of support for this program.” 「多くの国からギリシャへの批判があり、必要な緊縮政策に完全な協力を約していないとするものがあった。しかしもっとも大 きな問題は、ギリシャの政党全てからの確約の無いことである」
Debt Swap Greece, which faces a 14.5 billion-euro bond payment ($19.3 billion) on March 20, has since July been seeking a new aid package to follow an initial rescue of 110 billion euros in emergency loans approved in May 2010. The new program foresees a loss of more than 70 percent for bondholders in a voluntary debt exchange and extra public aid of 130 billion euros. The Greek parliament is due to vote on the accord this weekend. “If our homeland, our people favor another policy that necessarily leads outside the euro area and thus outside European integration, we have to say that directly to ourselves and to our fellow citizens,” Venizelos said. “Nobody can hide behind another.”
ttp://www.economist.com/node/21547297 Israel and Iran:Closer to take-off Feb 11th 2012 Momentum is growing for an Israeli airstrike on Iran?with or without American support アメリカの支援があろうが、無かろうが、イスラエルのイラン核施設空爆のモメンタムは増大している エコノミスト
In early February the annual Herzliya security conference in Israel provided a platform for the country’s military and intelligence elite to air their concerns about Iran’s progress toward a nuclear weapon. Israel’s hawkish defence minister, Ehud Barak, said that the “window” for an effective strike was rapidly closing because the continuing movement of essential uranium-enriching centrifuges to the Fordow underground facility, close to the holy city of Qom, would give Iran a “zone of immunity” in which it could construct a bomb regardless of any intervention by the outside world. ・・・ Attempting to calm things down, Barack Obama said on February 5th that he did not think Israel had “made a decision on what they need to do” and that the two countries would work in “lockstep as we proceed to solve this, hopefully diplomatically”. Mr Obama will be mindful that an attack would dominate his bid for re-election in November?though it is unclear whether he would gain as a war president or lose ground because of a surge in oil prices and an economic reversal.
The consequences might not be as catastrophic as some fear. On the other hand they fall into the disturbing category that Donald Rumsfeld, a former American defence secretary, once called “known unknowns”. Unfortunately for Mr Obama the decision is more likely to rest with Mr Barak and his prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, than with him.
(WSJ記事) ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203646004577214284275798666.html Grilled in parliament about the effectiveness of Japan's yen-selling operation in October, meant to tame the currency's rise, Mr. Azumi touched on specific yen-sale levels. Later, though, he said he was merely repeating figures put forth by an opposition lawmaker. "It was a complete slip of the tongue, and it was shocking that the finance minister mentioned a specific intervention level, which he never should," said Yuzo Sakai, senior trader at Tokyo Forex and Ueda Harlow.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Thursday joined the U.S. in signaling an objection to Japan's solo yen sales, telling a news conference that intervention should be multilateral. The U.S. Treasury made it clear in a report late last year that it didn't back Tokyo's solo actions in August and October. FEBRUARY 10, 2012, 5:52 A.M. ET Finance Minister Perplexes Markets
ギリシャ、国民正統派運動の党首、George Karatzaferisの緊縮財政反対の件、APの記事 この政党は与党連合の一部だけれど、16人の少数なので(与党連合は252人)、議会では 彼の反対があっても、それだけであれば依然、緊縮法案を可決できるという ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.newson6.com/story/16905380/greece-on-strike-as-bailout-deal-in-limbo Greek junior coalition party opposes austerity Posted: Feb 10, 2012 7:48 PM Updated: Feb 10, 2012 9:57 PM
ATHENS, Greece (AP) - The leader of a junior partner in Greece's coalition government says his will not vote for new austerity measures, required for a massive new bailout deal to avoid bankruptcy. George Karatzaferis, leader of the rightist LAOS party, said Friday that he would vote against the government proposal expected to come to parliament late Sunday.
LAOS has 16 deputies in parliament, in the coalition which is backed by 252 lawmakers. If the two other major parites, the Socialists and the conservatives, approve it, the austerity package would still pass. Karatzaferis insisted it was not his intention to withdraw from the government.
Media The Greek media, collectively, is a very influential institution ? usually aggressive, sensationalist. As with many countries, most of the media are owned by businesses with commercial interests in other sectors of the economy. There are often accusations of newspapers, magazines, and radio and television channels being used to promote their commercial enterprises as well as to seek political influence. ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Greece#Media
The Greek government needs to take "genuine ownership" of the second bailout program, Rehn said. To that end, the EU will "further strengthen our capacity on the ground in Athens both in terms of monitoring and surveillance." The EU will provide "technical assistance" on matters including fighting tax evasion and the privatization of state assets, he said. In addition, EU officials are considering a plan to put bailout funds for Greece in an escrow account as part of a plan to ensure compliance, he added. "The future of Greece is first and foremost in the hands of those who have the political responsibility," said Rehn. "The decisions they will take in next days and weeks will determine the prospects of the country and its people in order to put an end to an era of unsustainable public finances and a chronic lack of competitiveness." ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *まあ本音では、EUもいざとなった場合はギリシャを切り捨てる事は計算していて、その場合に他の国(イタリア、スペイン・・) への感染防止が重要なので(ry
US recognizes new government of Maldives (AFP) – 21 hours ago WASHINGTON ― The United States on Thursday recognized the new government of Maldives President Mohamed Waheed as legitimate and urged him to fulfill a pledge to form a national unity government. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland also said Robert Blake, the top US diplomat for south Asia, telephoned former president Mohamed Nasheed to tell him Washington backed a "peaceful resolution" of the crisis on the archipelago. "We do," Nuland told reporters when asked if Washington recognizes the new government as the legitimate government of the Maldives. She called Waheed the president and Nasheed the former president. Blake, the assistant secretary of state for south Asian affairs, will travel Saturday to the Maldives to meet with both Waheed and Nasheed, who charges he was ousted in a coup, as well as civil society. "He will be encouraging this national unity conversation," she added. "Blake spoke this morning to former president Nasheed, conveying assurances that the United States supports a peaceful resolution of this," Nuland said. Blake assured Nasheed who is facing arrest "that we are also expressing our views to the government that his security should be protected," Nuland said. Unrest has spread to the far corners of the nation of more than 1,000 islands, as Waheed struggles to maintain order. Nasheed, the Indian Ocean country's first democratically elected president who has hunkered down at his modest family home in the capital Male since losing the presidency on Tuesday, has appealed for urgent foreign help. The United States is "also encouraging him, as we encouraged President Waheed that this needs to settled now peaceably through dialogue and through the formation, as the new president has pledged, of a national unity government," Nuland said. A judge issued an arrest warrant Thursday for the ex-president, who says he was forced from office in a coup, as troops deployed to restore order after a night described by a presidential aide as "anarchy."
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) ? U.S. stocks fell sharply Friday, jeopardizing a sixth week of gains for the S&P 500, on worries that efforts to keep Greece from defaulting were falling apart. ギリシャの救済策を廻るトロイカとギリシャ政府の協議のgdgdや一部のギリシャ政治家の反乱からNY株式市場の6週間続いてきた 安定的な上昇相場が崩れた。ギリシャのデフォルトの不安が再燃している。
A successful joint exercise carried out Friday, Feb. 10, demonstrated the interoperability of the US Aegis and Israel's Arrow 4 ballistic missile defense systems and, most importantly, of their two radars, the US AN/TPY-2 X-band and Israel's EL/M-2080 Super Green Pine, DEBKAfile's military sources report. 米軍とイスラエル軍の合同MD演習が成功裏に終了し、米軍のイージス・MDシステムとイスラエル軍のアロー4ミサイル・システム のインターオペラビリティが確認された。特に重要であることは米軍のAN/TPY-2 Xバンド・レーダーとイスラエル軍のEL/M-2080 Super Green Pineレーダーの試験成功である。
The joint US-Israel radar exercise Friday was a target-only tracking test over the Mediterranean. An attack on Israel was simulated by a Rafael Blue Sparrow 2 target missile launched from an F-15 fighter jet coming in from the east ? the presumed direction of Iranian and Syrian missile strikes. The incoming missile was detected and tracked by two US AN/TPY-2 X-band stations and Israel's Super Green Pine radar. 米軍とイスラエル軍の合同レーダー演習は金曜日に行われ地中海からのミサイルの追跡を行った。 F-15からイスラエルへの攻撃 を模したRafael Blue Sparrow 2ミサイルがイラン、シリア方向から発射され、このミサイルは二基のXバンド・レーダーとイスラ エルのSuper Green Pineレーダーで追跡された。
One of the American stations is located on Mount Keren opposite the Egyptian border in southern Israel; the other at a Turkish air base in the southeastern town of Kurecik. Xバンド・レーダーは一基が南イスラエルのエジプト国境のMount Kerenに、別の一基はトルコの南西のKurecikの空軍基地にある。
DEBKAfile's military and Washington sources report that the test went ahead after Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu arrived in Washington Thursday, Feb. 9 to discuss urgent international action for Syria and at the same time notified US officials that his government had withdrawn its objections to the Israel-based US x-band radar station taking part in a joint exercise against a potential Iranian or Syrian missile attack. This notification was awaited before the test went ahead. It gave the Turkish foreign minister a handle for promoting his mission to gain Obama administration assent to his government's initiative on Syria. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan is pushing for joint Turkish-Arab military intervention to be launched against Bashar Assad's brutal crackdown under cover of a humanitarian operation. He offered to meet the Americans halfway on the radar station issue to win support for this anti-Assad intervention. トルコの外相Ahmet Davutogluは9日に訪米しているがこれに先立ってトルコはイスラエルと米軍の合同レーダー演習への反対を 取り下げている。このトルコの承認が合同演習の実施には必要であった。トルコのTayyip Erdoganはシリア紛争に対してトルコ・ アラブ合同での軍事介入を主張している。トルコ国内のXバンド・レーダーの演習参加承認はトルコがアメリカの反アサドの支援 を期待しているところがある(後略)
ATHENS ? Greece’s place in Europe once again hung in the balance on Friday, as the fragile interim coalition of Prime Minister Lucas Papademos was plunged into turmoil and European leaders expressed doubts about the country’s commitment to remaking its economy and achieving solvency. 欧州財相会議で、ギリシャ救済パッケージの承認が延期され、EUの指導者らはギリシャがその経済を立て直し支払い可能性を 回復するための政策への、ギリシャ政府のコミットメントを疑っている。
On Friday, Mr. Papademos told lawmakets that a disorderly default would condemn the country to a “disastrous ordeal.” “It would create conditions of uncontrolled economic chaos and a social explosion,” he said. “The state would be unable to pay wages and pensions and cover basic operational costs such as those of hospitals and schools.” Imports of basic goods such as medicines and fuel would become problematic and businesses would close down en masse. “The living standard of Greeks would collapse and the country would be dragged into a spiral of recession, instability, unemployment and misery,” he said. “All these developments would lead, sooner or later, to Greece’s exit from the euro zone,” he added. パパデモス首相は救済パッケージの求める緊縮政策への反対を批判し、議員らに救済策への合意がなければ無秩序のデフォルト に陥ると警告した。「社会経済的な管理不可能の混乱が起きるだろう。国家は学校の教員や病院のスタッフら、基本的な社会の 運営コストや年金の支払いが不可能になり、薬品や石油の輸入も難しくなり企業は多量に倒産する。経済はリセッションのスパ イラルに突入し生活水準が大きく低下する。失業率が酷いことになる。こうしたことはいずれギリシャのユーロ圏からの離脱に つながる」
エコノミスト今週号のシリア現状評論 -------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.economist.com/node/21547305 Syria’s crisis:The long road to Damascus There are signs that the Syrian regime may become still more violent Feb 11th 2012 | DAMASCUS AND DERAA | from the print edition (反政府勢力FSAの)ダマスカスへの長い道のり アサド政権は更に暴力拡大すル徴候が見られる
Mr Assad’s government seems to believe that such tactics will succeed in stanching the revolt. ・・・ There are nearby precedents for such success. Saddam Hussein, the former Iraqi dictator, ruled for more than a decade following his brutal suppression of an uprising in the country’s south after the first Gulf war. Turkey’s army has put a fairly tight lid on Kurdish separatism, just as Israel has crushed two Palestinian intifadas. And Mr Assad’s own father outlived the rebels in Hama.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Saturday the country would soon announce very important achievements n the nuclear field, state TV reported. (ばっさり略)
Forget the icy weather: the financial markets are signalling that spring is coming. Equities are rallying and credit spreads have narrowed. Yet look around, if you can bear to. Similarities with the interwar period ? a time of persistent false dawns ? are multiplying ominously. 厳寒の気候と裏腹に金融市場には春が訪れるかのような兆候がある。株式が上昇し、クレジット・スプレッドは低下している。 しかし状況を見渡すなら、悲観材料がないわけでは無い。二つの大戦に挟まれた1930年代と現在との相似性があって、そこには 偽りの夜明けがある。
As in the early 1930s, the shockwaves of the crash, at first confined to those directly involved in financial markets, are painfully touching the lives of increasing numbers of people. The search for scapegoats is becoming more bitter. Today’s hunted bankers cut wretched figures compared with the top-hatted, cigar-wielding plutocrats in Georg Grosz’s caricatures of the Weimar Republic. It is better to forfeit a knighthood or even a bonus than be hanged from a lamppost, but they face the same raw public anger. 1930年代初期にも株式市場がクラッシュし、それは初期には直接に金融市場に関わる人だけの問題であったが、次第により多くの 人に悪影響を与えるに至った。スケープゴートを求めて、より禿げしい対立が起こる。現在、非難追求されている銀行家というの はワイマール時代のGeorg Groszmの漫画の葉巻を加えた特権階級の富豪に対比できる。電柱に吊るされるよりは伯位やボーナスの 剥奪は、まだましなことではある。しかし、いずれにせよ、そこにあるものは大衆の激憤である。
Unfortunately, this fury chimes with the widespread but false belief that the rich can pay for all the damage, an idea that politicians ? most shortsightedly ? are doing little to discourage. The narrowing of the tax base in many countries needs urgently to be corrected; it is barely being addressed. 不幸なことに、この大衆の激情の広がりというのは、富裕者が損害の全てを支払うことが出来るという誤った思い込みによるもの なのだが、視野の狭い政治屋達は、それを抑制しようとはしない。納税層の縮小化は多くの国にあって、それは修正されるべきな のだが、誰もそれに触れない。
The US, winded by the financial crash and its aftermath, and retreating from one of its periodic sallies overseas, is feeling sour and turning inward. The benefits of international projection of American power are never easier to appreciate than when it is absent. この時代にあっては、金融市場のクラッシュのあとの米国は海外から軍事力を引き上げ、覇権主義の逆に動いて、内向きになる。 アメリカの覇権の国際的な便益というのは、それが無くなった時ほど有難味を感じるものである。
While rising nations rearm, the international order as a whole is weakening, just as it did in the 1930s as the League of Nations became ineffective. The world’s difficulty in dealing with the violent repression of protests in Syria, or with the blatant defiance of Iran, is a painful reminder of this. Modest examples of protectionism are proliferating. They do not yet threaten the world trade order, but the failure of the Doha round of trade talks and the rise of mercantilism in the emerging world suggest not only that the tide has turned but that the west is losing the will, as much as the ability, to impose its ideas. The European Union is visibly losing authority over its member states. Brussels still hosts summits; but it no longer makes policy. 新興国が軍事力を拡大する一方、国際秩序は全体として悪化している。それは1930年代に国際連盟が効力を失っていったのと同じ である。世界はシリア国内の抗議運動への暴力とか、イランのあからさまなルール無視などに上手く対処できない。保護貿易主義 の穏健な形のものが拡大している。それは世界の国益秩序を脅かすに至っていないがドーハ・ラウンドの失敗と新興諸国の重商主 義の傾向は、それが悪化することを示唆していて、西欧諸国はそれに対処する意志力を欠いている。さらにアイデアを実施する能 力を欠いている。EUは明瞭に権威を失っていて、ブラッセルのEU本部はサミットを開催するが、いしかし今や政策を主催しない。
Right now, for the European political class, the objective of saving the euro overwhelms all else. It should not be the only priority. The most important thing is to ensure that more tested aspects of the EU survive an all-too-possible euro break-up. It was a mistake for powerful people in Brussels and Frankfurt to say in 2010 that a bank defaulting on its bonds would necessarily bring about a sovereign default; that a sovereign default would mean the end of the euro; that the end of the euro would mean the end of the EU. Apocalyptic rhetoric can become self-fulfilling. 今の時点ではヨーロッパの政治階級はユーロの存続を行わしめることが関心の全てで、他にはない。そういう唯一つだけの優先事項 というのは、あるべき姿ではない。重要なことはユーロ圏の分裂の場合にあってもEUの存続可能性を確かなものにすることである。 ブラッセルやフランクフルトの有力な指導者らが2010年に銀行の国債のデフォルトはソブリン・デフォルトをもたらすと述べたのは 誤りで、ソブリン・デフォルトというのはユーロの終わりを意味する。ユーロの終わりというのはEUの終わりを意味する。そういう 終末論的なレトリックは自己実現的になり得る。
At such times the first job of leaders is to do no harm: to ensure that a bad outcome, if it turns out to be inevitable, does not necessarily lead to consequences that are worse still. European politicians are finding their primary aim ? re-election ? extraordinary elusive. They should take comfort: reputations are not secured by pursuing lousy policies that keep you undeservedly in power in the short term. We do not elect people in order to re-elect them; we elect them to make difficult choices on our behalf. Historical reputations ? good or bad ? can be more durable, even, than knighthoods. こうした時代にあって指導者のなすべきことは、何よりも害になる事をしないことである。もし、悪い結果の起きることが不可避で あるのであれば、更に悪いことを導く必要はない。ヨーロッパの政治屋は彼らの専心すること、つまり次期選挙での勝利、がたいへ んやりにくいと感じている。彼らは慰めを見出すことができて、短期的に不相応な権力を維持にするための出来の悪い政策を追い求 めることで評判を高めることはできない。我々は彼らの再選のために彼らを選ぶのではなく我々に代わって困難な判断を下すために 彼らを選ぶのだ。歴史の評価というのは、良いものであれ悪いものであれ、爵位などよりは長く信用できるものである。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (関連のニュース) ttp://www.bloomberg.co.jp/news/123-LYP4MV07SXKW01.html RBS前CEOのナイト爵位を剥奪−バンカーの別世界生活、今は昔
ttp://blogs.aljazeera.net/liveblog/Syria "Jihadists" and weapons are moving from Iraq to Syria, deputy Iraqi interior minister Adnan al-Assadi has said, AFP reports. "We have intelligence information that a number of Iraqi jihadists went to Syria," Adnan al-Assadi said, adding that "weapons smuggling is still ongoing" from Iraq to Syria.
<結論> Though facing vastly superior military capabilities, Iran has a number of military options in the Gulf. While it may not be able to carry out its threat to 'close' the strait, it could cause significant disruption to shipping - and also invite a hostile response. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *アメリカはじめ西側諸国の軍事力とイランのそれはアンバランスに吊り合いのとれない現状から見て、イランが海峡を封鎖する ことは、ほぼ不可能という。しかしながら、この地域の海運への妨害は可能であり、それは大きな問題になり得る、と見る。
エコノミストが書いていたように、DEBKAもアサド政権はロシアとイランのバックアップを頼りに、反政府勢力を徹底弾圧して 生き残りを図る計画で、そのためには一切の容赦をしないという。その戦略は長期的には疑問だが、短期的には成功しそうだ、 とDEBKAは書いている。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.debka.com/article/21729/ The difference between them is that the Al-Khalifa House of Bahrain was rescued by Arab forces while the Syrian president is stamping out the uprising against him with the help of non-Arab powers, Iran and Russia. Both powers sent important officials to Damascus last week: Iran's al Qods Brigades commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani was there Sunday and Monday (5-6 Feb.) at the head of a large military-intelligence delegation. No sooner was it gone when Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and SVR intelligence chief Mikhail Fradkov were deposited at the door of Assad's presidential palace.
Ayham Kamel, an analyst at Eurasia Group, said the Russian and Chinese vetoes showed that change in Syria was not imminent. As rebel forces lacked structure and a unified command, Assad would keep the military edge but find it hard to crush rebels. “In the next few months, Syria will transition from civil conflict into civil war. Assad’s power and control over the country will diminish and civilian casualties on both sides are expected to rise,” Kamel said.
シンクタンク、ユーラシア・グループのアナリスト、Ayham Kamelはシリア情勢の見通しについて、中国とロシアの安保理決議案 への拒否権発動によってアサド政権の交代は切迫したものではなくなった、と述べた。反政府勢力は組織構造や統一的指揮にかけ ており、アサド政権側に軍事的な有利さがあるが、反政府勢力の撲滅は難しいだろうという。「今後数カ月の間、シリアは国内紛 争が内戦に拡大するだろう。アサド政権の全国土への統治能力は低下し、民間人の被害者は政府側と反政府側の両方で増大するだ ろう」という。 ttp://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/02/12/194067.html Arab foreign ministers to meet in Cairo over escalating Syria violence Sunday, 12 February 2012
SAN FRANCISCO?Apple Inc. asked a California court to issue a preliminary injunction to block sales of Samsung Electronics Co.'s new Galaxy Nexus smartphone, alleging the device infringes four Apple patents. The step marks another escalation of the sprawling legal battle between the world's two top sellers of smartphones, with Apple redrawing its arguments to account for Samsung's rising position in the business. Apple argues the new Samsung phone?which uses a new version of Google Inc.'s Android operating software dubbed Ice Cream Sandwich?is the most credible competitor yet to its iPhone and poses a potent threat to Apple's market share. アップルはサムスンの新型スマホでアンドロイドのアイスクリームサンドイッチOSを導入した Galaxy Nexusが特許を侵害している としてカリフォルニア州サンノゼ地裁に仮差止命令を要請した。
Apple's suit, filed Wednesday in U.S. District Court in San Jose, Calif., accuses Samsung of violating patents that are distinguishing features of the iPhone. The suit contrasts with Apple's original case against Samsung, filed in the same court last April and expected to go to trial this summer, by concentrating on technical patents rather than design -oriented ones. アップルは同サンノゼ地裁にサムスンがiPhoneの特許を侵害しているとして、先に訴訟を起しており、夏にその審議が行われる見通 しである。この昨年4月の訴訟はデザインに重きの置かれた特許侵害訴訟であるが、今回のものは技術的特許に焦点が絞られている。 (後略)
The Arab League urged the UN to pass a resolution sending a joint peacekeeping force to Syria to address the growing violence in the country. Meeting in Cairo on Sunday, foreign ministers of the 22-nation group called for an immediate ceasefire in Syria and an end to all diplomatic co-operation with Damascus. 日曜部にカイロで、アラブ同盟の22ヶ国外相会議が開かれ、シリア問題で即時停戦と国連平和維持軍の派遣を求める決議がなされた。 この会議では分裂しているシリアの反政府勢力に統一を求める決議もなされている。アラブ同盟は国連総会でシリア問題の決議を 求める計画であるが、安保理での中国やロシアの反対、拒否権発動のあるため、その実効性は疑問視されている。(後略)
重慶市の王立軍のアメリカ領事館亡命未遂事件について、David Cohenがディプロマットに書いているもの。 特に新しい情報はないけれど、彼も何処までが事実で何が噂か見極めがたいが、この事件は大変重要という ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://the-diplomat.com/2012/02/12/chinas-police-chief-mystery/2/ China’s Police Chief Mystery February 12, 2012 By David Cohen 中国重慶市の公安部長のミステリー By David Cohen ディプロマット
For the time being, the wisest thing for many to admit may be that they simply don’t know for sure what’s going on. But what happens next in the Wang Lijun case is extremely important, because it may be the first sign we have of the direction China will take in the next ten years. 現時点では、単純に言って、この事件の水面下で何が動いているのかは定かではない。しかし王立軍の事件の後に何が起こるのかは 大変重要である。何故なら、それは中国の次の10年の方向を示唆する、最初のサインで有り得るからである。
But while analysts say Mr. Xi's political ascent is assured, last week's flurry of police activity on a downtown Chengdu street could indicate that the broader leadership transition has hit a bump. Some analysts speculate that Mr. Bo's opponents aim to bring him down by going after Mr. Wang.
Beyond that, analysts say, it could indicate ideological differences over China's political development. Mr. Bo had been promoting a Maoist revival in Chongqing, complete with red-song campaigns and revolutionary rallies. His main political rival, Wang Yang, the party chief of southern Guangdong province, has been pushing a more liberal approach that stresses the rule of law and land-rights protection.
"You're really talking, I think, about development models, where China goes from here," says Joseph Fewsmith, an expert on Chinese elite politics at Boston University. "This takes on much broader ideological dimensions than anything we have seen in 20 years." ボストン大学の中国政治専門家であるJoseph Fewsmithは「ここで問題になるのは中国の開発モデルのあり方である。それは広範な イデオロギーの側面に関連していて、過去20年来見なかったもの(イデオロギー論争の側面を)示す。
アテネ市内で抗議行動の暴徒が建物に放火 ttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9SS1SH80.htm Riots engulfed central Athens and at least 10 buildings went up in flames in mass protests late Sunday as lawmakers prepared for a historic parliamentary vote on harsh austerity measures demanded to keep the country solvent and within the eurozone. TV footage showed a three-story corner building completely consumed by flames with riot officers looking on from the street, and firefighters trying to douse the blaze. A closed cinema, a bank, a mobile phone dealership, a glassware store and a cafeteria were among the burning buildings, the fire department said. There were no report of people trapped inside 緊縮財政法案を議会で審議中のギリシャで、抗議行動に参加の暴徒がアテネ市内のビルに放火し、10個のビルが炎に包まれた。 TVで報道された画面では3階建ての建物が完全に炎に巻かれている。閉鎖中の映画館、銀行、携帯電話ショップ、ガラス器店、 カフェテリアなどが放火されたビルに入居していた。人的被害は報告されていない。
Extremists leaving the square outside parliament set fire to two historic cinemas and the headquarters of Alpha Bank, the country’s third-largest lender, in what appeared to be a series of organised arson attacks, Greek media reported. The cinemas were not operating and there were no immediate reports of injuries. Two central branches of National Bank of Greece and Eurobank EFG, both leading lenders, were also firebombed. Riot police firing teargas and stun grenades chased groups of hooded youths through the streets around parliament, and there were reports of looting of shops along Stadiou street, a central boulevard. ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3c7fad3e-55a7-11e1-b66d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1mCSt0uAZ