アメリカの医療費負担について、シンクタンクAEIの研究者の書いている(アメリカの医療費の構造の特殊性)もの ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.aei.org/article/health/healthcare-reform/the-health-spending-1-percent/ The health spending 1 percent Christopher J. Conover November 22, 2011 人口の1%にあたる富裕層が、アメリカの全医療費の五分の一を、人口の5%の富裕層が、医療費のほぼ半額を支払っている
Health expenditures are highly concentrated, with just 10 percent of the population accounting for nearly two- thirds of annual health spending. 医療費負担は高度に一部に集中していて、人口の10%に当たル比較的裕福な階層が、全医療費の散文鬼を支払っている。
At the other end of the distribution, individuals in the bottom half of spending account for only 3 percent of annual health costs. Their average annual spending is less than $360. Leaving aside administrative costs, an actuarially fair premium to cover only the catastrophic expenses of the top one percent would be almost $1,161 a year. 収入の少ない層の、人口の半分に当たる人たちは全医療費の僅か3%を負担している。その平均年間医療費負担は$360
The foregoing demonstrates why one Republican presidential candidate observed, a half decade ago, that ''Health is about 30 times more difficult than national security.'' Perhaps it’s worth having a Republican presidential candidate debate on this issue alone.
"The agency is concerned that damage to the Volt's batteries as part of three tests that are explicitly designed to replicate real-world crash scenarios have resulted in fire," the administration said. "NHTSA is therefore opening a safety defect investigation of Chevy Volts, which could experience a battery-related fire following a crash."
The agency noted that there are no known "real-world" instances of battery problems causing fires to erupt after a driver crashes a Volt, and added that "Volt owners who have not been in a serious crash do not have reason for concern." Nor has the federal regulator ordered any recall, though it did say that might occur "if NHTSA identifies an unreasonable risk of safety."
The U.S. increased pressure Friday on Egypt's military rulers to hand over power to civilian leaders, and the generals turned to a Mubarak-era politician to head a new government in a move that failed to satisfy the more than 100,000 protesters who jammed Tahrir Square in the biggest rally yet this week. アメリカ政府は金曜日にエジプトの軍事政権に対して文民(非軍人)指導者らに政権を移譲して新たな政権を目指すように と圧力を強めた
"We believe that Egypt's transition to democracy must continue, with elections proceeding expeditiously, and all necessary measures taken to ensure security and prevent intimidation," the White House said in a statement. ホワイトハウスは声明で「我々はエジプトの民主化への移管が継続すべきと信じ、選挙が実施され、また必要な安全保障と 威嚇の防止の措置が取られるべきと考える」と述べている
"Most importantly, we believe that the full transfer of power to a civilian government must take place in a just and inclusive manner that responds to the legitimate aspirations of the Egyptian people, as soon as possible," it said. 「最重要なことは、我々が信じるところには、文民政府への全面的な権限の移譲が行われるべきであり、早期にエジプト国 民の要求を受けた正統な政府が樹立されるべきである」
The adjustment in the Obama administration's approach is significant because the Egyptian military, the nation's most powerful institution, has in the past 30 years forged close relations with successive U.S. administrations, receiving $1.3 billion annually in aid. It followed the public U.S. endorsement of the military's original timetable for the transfer of power by late 2012 or early 2013. オバマ政権のエジプト政策の調整(修正)は大きな意味を持ち、エジプトで最大の権力を有し過去30年間の長きにわたって 米国との密接な関係を有し、年間13億ドルの米国の支援を受けてきた軍部に対する政策調整となる。エジプト軍部は公的に 2012年後期か2013年初期に政権を移譲すると計画して米国もこれを支持している。
The next parliament is expected to be dominated by Islamists, whose political groups have decided to boycott the ongoing protests to keep from doing anything that could derail the election. However, the outcome of the vote is likely to be seen as flawed given the growing unrest and the suspension by many candidates of their campaigns in solidarity with the protesters. 次回の国会議員選挙ではイスラミストが多数を占めると予想され、イスラミストラは選挙の先延ばしを防ぐために何でもヤル 用意がある。しかし情勢の不安定化や多くの抗議者側の候補者の停止によって選挙の結果が不十分なものになる恐れがある。 (後略) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/45433867/ns/today-today_news/t/egypt-protesters-get-us-support-power-transfer/#.TtB2fmOXu7s Egypt protesters get US support for power transfer エジプトの抗議運動は、権限移譲について、アメリカのサポートを得た MSNBC
>ポーランドの原発計画にはフランスの仏電力公社(EDF)と原子力大手アレバ(Areva)の連合、東芝(Toshiba)傘下 >のウェスチングハウス・エレクトリック(Westinghouse Electric Company)、GE日立ニュークリアエナジーアメリカズ >(GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy Americas)の3つの国際コンソーシアムが関心を示しており、入札手続きは年内にも始 >まる予定。
メッテルニヒのお言葉(1845年): “Switzerland presents the most perfect image of a state in the process of social disintegration.” ? Prince Klemens von Metternich, Austrian statesman, 1845 スイスというのは、社会的ディスインテグレーションのプロセスの進む国の、最も完全なイメージを具現する」
To a modern eye, the above observation is about as startling as it gets. Social disintegration? Switzerland? Surely not! Yet Metternich was not exaggerating. During the 1840s Switzerland was no mountainous haven of peace and prosperity. Political quarrels and economic turbulence were as familiar to the Swiss then as they are to today’s debt-laden Europeans. In 1847 Switzerland even descended into a short-lived civil war. この言葉は現在のスイスからは程遠いものがあるのだが、メッテルニヒは間違っていたわけではなくて、1840年代のスイスは 平和や繁栄の高みにあったわけではなくて、政治的紛争や経済の乱気流が吹き荒れ、それは現在のユーロ圏にも劣らぬもので あった。1847年には短期的な内戦さえ起こっている。
Still, the Swiss story ended happily. The chaos of Metternich’s era prompted Switzerland’s transformation in 1848 into a federal state that, notwithstanding various blunders and blemishes, has proved a model of freedom, affluence and social stability up to the present day. しかし、スイスの歴史はその後上手くゆく。メッテルニヒ時代の混乱はスイスをして1948年に連邦国家を樹立させ、政治の失態 や経済の信用失墜から別れて、自由と繁栄、社会的安定のモデルを築き、それが今日に至っている。
ユーロ圏の指導者は、現行の混乱を解決するには、より一層の政治的統合と財政の統合が必要と言っている。スイスの歴史を見 ると、スイスはユーロ圏に政治的にはディセントラライズされ、経済的に効率的で、財政規律を高く保つという異なったコミニ ティの集合の、統治モデルを示す事ができるのかもしれない。スイスは26の州をもち連邦国家として憲法と通貨を共有している。スイスの州はたいへん大きな自治権を持っていて連邦政府の介入を全く期待しない。これはユーロ圏の17ヶ国になぞらえる事が できる。スイスは多言語国家で4つの公用語(French, German, Italian and Romansh)がありEUと同じように英語が共通言語 になっている。
Switzerland, in fact, displays many more features typical of a sovereign state than the eurozone has done or ever will do. International neutrality and direct democracy are integral to the Swiss identity, but they are distinctive brands unrepeatable in the eurozone. Like an Alpine glacier, Switzerland is a sight for other Europeans to admire. But you cannot take a glacier home.
ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/nov/25/durban-climate-change-summit-editorial Climate change summit: aim for the top Global emissions need to start to fall within the next five years or so, and each delay makes failure costlier and harder to avoid Editorial guardian.co.uk, Friday 25 November 2011 22.41 GMT ダーバンの気候変動サミットは目標達成が困難にみえるが (英・ガーディアン社説、26日)
For Washington, the current situation in Egypt is a nightmare. Contrary to popular impressions, the Obama administration did not embrace the anti-Mubarak protestors last February but rather supported the Egyptian army in facilitating a change from Mubarak's rule to an uncertain military-led transition. Since then, Washington has vacillated on who its allies in Egypt really are. Is it the military, with whom the administration shares certain strategic understandings on key national security issues? Or the Muslim Brotherhood, which many in Washington view as both the authentic voice of the people and, given its "inevitable" electoral victory, a faction America should court? Or the secular liberals, who -- despite being the most ideologically congenial to America's democratic spirit -- have shown themselves to be poor political organizers often too willing to cooperate with illiberal forces (e.g., Salafists) for short-term gain? The absence of clarity on this issue has paralyzed U.S. policymaking, and as a result, the administration now has little sway with any of these key constituencies.
In fairness, Washington's policy options would be limited even in the best of diplomatic circumstances. The administration may feel compelled to prioritize national security issues, urging delayed elections so as to limit the likelihood of an Islamist landslide. ・・・・ Of course, none of this may work -- the forces at play throughout Egypt may still be in such a revolutionary fervor that even Washington's best ideas wind up having little impact. Therefore, although the administration should encourage the SCAF to lay out a credible path to civilian government, and in so doing protect only a limited set of the military's interests and perquisites, it must also prepare for the possibility that chaos and uncertainty will dominate the Egyptian political scene for months to come.
The ugly denouement of the so-called Egyptian Spring is visible in the collapse of Egypt’s stock exchange (down 11% in the first three days of this week) and the impending collapse of the Egyptian pound, as residents and foreigners flee to hard currency. A unique sort of brutality characterizes Egypt’s currency crisis: banks cannot meet the demand for currency because it is impossible transport bank notes. 「エジプトの春」と言われる民主化革命の別の側面として、通貨であるエジプト・ポンドの暴落が顕著になってきた。 エジプトの株式市場は今週の最初の3日で11%下落している。エジプト居住者も外国人もローカル通貨を逃れてハード・ カレンシーを求めているので通貨は危機的状態で銀行はハード・カレンシーの需要を満たすことが出来ない。
Ahram reported today: “Demand on the dollar increased by 100 per cent since Saturday,” said Bilal Khalil, deputy head of the exchange division of the Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce (FCC). エジプトのローカル紙、Ahramの記事では:ドルの需要が土曜日以降に100%増大したとエジプト商工会議所の通貨交換部門 の副部長であるBilal Khalilが述べた。
Khalil went on to say that many people prefer to convert pounds to dollars in times of crisis. “The exceptionally high demand on the American dollar resulted in a shortage of supply and a higher cost,” he said. However, Khalil pointed out, the pound until Monday was still sold officially at LE5.98 in banks, but exceeded LE6 in exchange companies because they did not have enough cash to meet the soaring demand. “Armoured money transfer vehicles were not safe anymore because law breakers take advantage and target the vehicles for a hijack,” Khalil said. “Transferring dollars between banks and exchange companies has become worrying more than ever.” 彼に依れば多くの人々がローカル通貨をドルに交換することを求めている。「米ドルの異常な需要は供給の不足とコスト増加 を招いている」月曜日まではローカル通貨は銀行で公的交換比率であるドルあたり5.98で得られていた。しかし供給の不足で 6.0を超える交換比率になっている。「無法者が混乱に乗じて現金輸送車を襲う可能性があるので輸送車によるキャッシュの移 動が安全でなくなっている」という。「銀行から通貨交換施設への現金輸送が悩みのタネになっている」
Khalil believes that banks have the needed supply to stabilise the market but are afraid to transfer money to their branches and exchange companies at this time. As is the case during all crises, Khalil added, the black market has flourished, where the dollar is sold at an even higher price. This leads to a further weakening of the local currency. “People just look to invest in the safe haven of the dollar without thinking of the repercussions on the pound,” he said. 彼に依れば、銀行は市場の安定化のためにドルの供給を行う必要があるが輸送上の問題のために支店や通貨交換所に現金を移動 することを恐れている。こうした危機的状況の常としてブラック・マーケット(闇市場での通貨交換)が盛んになっており、そ こではドルは更に高い交換比率で売られている。その事実がローカル通貨を弱めることになっている。人々はセーフ・へブンを 求めてドルに殺到しているという。
Hazem El-Beblawi, minister of finance in the now resigned cabinet, said last week that the country is reconsidering taking the loan. But CI Capital’s Mansour ruled out this possibility: “The IMF loan to Egypt may be muted on the back of such unrest and the reshuffling of the government ? which will further undermine investors’ confidence.” 辞任した財務大臣のazem El-Beblawiは先週、夏に一時拒否したIMFからのローンを考慮中と述べた。しかしCIキャピタルの Mansourはこの可能性を否定し「IMFからのローンというのは政治的混乱の中で新政府の樹立に先立っては行われないだろう。 そうした事態が投資家を更に怯えさせる」という。
Cairo has so far received in-principle offers of aid totalling well over $10 billion from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. However, it did not get even half this sum so far in what analysts attribute to reservations many Gulf countries hold against the fact that former ally Mubarak is facing trial. エジプト政府はサウジアラビア、カタール、UAEからの100億ドルの支援の約束を得ている。しかしアナリストはこの支援が その半分も得られないのではないかという。ムバラク前大統領の裁判を行うとの決定に多くの湾岸諸国が立場を留保している 為であるという。(後略)
HONG KONG?Maersk Line, the world's largest container shipper by volume, plans to cut its capacity on Asia-to-Europe routes, a new sign that the euro-zone debt crisis is disrupting international trade. 世界最大のコンテナ海運会社であるMaersk Lineはアジア・ヨーロッパ間の輸送容量の引き下げを計画中。これはヨーロッパの 金融危機が国際通商に打撃を与えている証拠となる。
"Almost all carriers are losing money now ...and it looks like 2012 will going to be similarly challenging," Tim Smith, the company's North Asia chief, said at a shipping conference here. 同社の北アジア主任であるTim Smithは「今は殆どすべてのキャリアーが赤字だ。それに2012年も同じように厳しいいと見られ る」という。
Rival shipper Orient Overseas (International) Ltd. said at the same event that it plans to cut its shipping capacity on the Asia-Europe route by 20% in the current quarter, as the Hong Kong-based company strives to maintain profitability amid the global slowdown. 競合する海運会社のOrient Overseasもアジア・ヨーロッパ間の輸送容量の20%引き下げを検討中と言っている。
The shipping industry is a key barometer of the world economy's health. And after rebounding in 2010 from the financial crisis as retailers restocked inventories, shippers are now contending with the economic uncertainty fueled by Europe's debt woes and political gridlock in the U.S. over federal deficits. 海運会社は世界経済の健全さのバロメーターのキイとなるものでリーマン・ショック後に2010年に回復した後、今や海運 会社はヨーロッパの金融危機とアメリカの連邦政府の負債をめぐる議会のgdgdなどによる経済的不確定性に直面している。・
Mr. Smith, who said Maersk will announce the cuts next week, pointed to overcapacity as a key concern for the global shipping industry. "I think it's very clear now that we've seen, collectively, we're ordering more capacity than we really need for the short term," he said. Smith氏は同社が来週、削減を発表するといい、グローバル海運業界にとってオーバーキャパシティが最大の関心であるという。 (後略)
It has suddenly become respectable to ask the question: what would happen if the euro broke up? Last week’s rise in German bond yields signals that a euro break up is being taken more seriously by investors. I am told that London law firms are allocating large amounts of time to examining the validity, following a break-up, of cross -border contracts written in euros. And, to judge from my own inbox, asset managers are beginning to ask about the economics of how it could occur. 突然のことに、「ユーロが分裂したら何が起こるのか?」という疑問がマジなものになってきて、先週のドイツ国債のイール ド上昇は投資家がユーロの分裂をより真剣に検討しているというシグナルである。私はロンドンの法律事務所が多くの時間を 費やしてユーロ分裂の場合のユーロ建てクロスボーダー契約の正当性(有効性)について検討していると聞き及んだ。さらに 私の受け取る電子メールから判断するとアセットマネージャーらは、如何にそれが起こりえるのかを検討し始めている。
When the euro was created, the process took many years of careful planning. The ECU, a basket of fixed amounts of national currencies, traded for several years in the foreign exchange markets, before its name was changed to the euro on 1 January 1999. There were no sudden revaluations and devaluations to disrupt economic relationships within the currency zone. ユーロの導入にあたっては慎重な何年にも及ぶ計画があり、複数通貨のバスケットであるECUはユーロの導入以前に何年も外為 市場で取引された。ユーロ圏には突然の通貨切り上げとか切り下げとかはなかった。
This movie cannot now be run backwards. It is hard to imagine the 17 members of the eurozone going through an orderly, decade-long process in which national currencies would first be reintroduced, then gradually allowed to deviate against each other within narrow bands, then ultimately allowed to float freely. I am not aware of any currency system which has broken up in such an orderly manner. Much more probable is a severe crisis, followed by the reintroduction of some national currencies, after which the “euro” might be retained by a remaining group of its current members, or it might simply cease to exist altogether. しかしこれまでの事態を映画のフィルムを逆回しにするようなわけにはゆかない。ユーロ圏の17ヶ国が秩序を保って10年にも及 ぶプロセスで自国通貨を最導入し、他の通貨との差異を徐々に広げて、最終的に完全フロートに至るといった事は想像しがたい。 秩序有る通貨システムの崩壊というのは例を知らない。より有りそうなことは深刻な危機がきて、それに続いて自国通貨の再導 入があり、そのあとでユーロは残るメンバーによって維持されるか、或いは完全になくなるかであろう。
For investors, a great deal would depend on exactly how this process would unfold. There are far too many possible paths, each with an entirely different outcome, for this to be in any way forecastable. However, the diagram below might help: 投資家にとっては、そのプロセスがどうなるのかは大きな関心事である。ここには多くの可能なパスがあり、おのおのは完全に 異なった結果に至るもので、ダイアグラム(フローチャート)を書いてみると
If the break-up occurs because a few peripheral currencies exit the euro, but the “single” currency otherwise remains intact, then those investors who hold their funds within the German financial system could expect to see these “euro” holdings revalued against outside currencies like the dollar (Route 1 in the diagram). Meanwhile, those who previously held euros in countries like Italy would probably find that they now hold new lira instead, which would rapidly be devalued against all other currencies, including the euro. ユーロ周辺国がユーロから離脱する場合(図のルート1)ドイツの金融システムのファンドを保有する投資家はユーロの資産 がドルなどに対して切り上げとなるであろう。一方でイタリアのように以前はユーロ加盟国であった国がリラに戻ると、その 通貨は急速に切り下げられるであろう。
Another possibility, however, is that Germany and a few other countries choose to depart from the eurozone because they fear that inflation is becoming an unacceptable threat within the zone (Route 2). It is a stretch to imagine that this sub-group could, or would want to, retain the title “euro” for their new currency. More likely, they would want to call it the new mark, or something similar. 別の可能性としてドイツと他の少数の国がユーロ圏を抜けて(図のルート2)サブグループの共通通貨として新マルクとかそう いうものを採用することが有り得る
My own guess is that the remaining members of the current eurozone would then fall apart, and reintroduce their own national currencies (Route 2a). In that event, the euro would cease to exist, and would no longer trade on the foreign exchange market, leaving investors to experience gains and losses according to where (geographically) they were holding their funds. A less likely alternative (Route 2b) would be for the non-German group to retain the euro as their currency, in which case a smaller version of the euro would remain intact, but would be devalued against the dollar and the new mark. 私の個人的推測では、ユーロ圏に残る加盟国はその後に分裂して、各自が自国通貨を最導入する(図のルート2a)。この場合、 ユーロは消滅して外為市場で取引されることが無くなる。投資家は保有する資産が、どの国のものかによって利益或いは損失 を被る。あまり有りそうにないシナリオでは(図のルート2b)ドイツ以外の諸国がユーロを存続させ、小型版のユーロ圏が出来 るが、それはドルや新マルクに比べて切り下げされるだろう。
The upshot of this is that investors holding euros in f/x or other contracts could see the value of their holdings rise, fall or become subject to prolonged legal uncertainty, depending on exactly how the break-up occurred. That represents an awful lot of uncertainty for any investor who takes the break-up as even a remote possibility. There would be some very random transfers of wealth as a result of the exchange rate adjustments which would occur in each of these cases. Those entities holding net assets in foreign currencies would gain from devaluation, and vice versa. And there would be rapid adjustments of competitiveness in the goods and labour markets of the old eurozone. In all cases, the currency used in Germany, whether or not still called “the euro”, would be sharply revalued. こうしたことが起こるとユーロ建て資産を持つ投資家は、その価値が上昇或いは下落し、あるいは法的訴訟に待つということ になる。それは分裂の仕方に依存する。これは大変な不確定性を意味するので、たとえ可能性が小さくとも重大な問題である。 それがおこると、通貨レートの変動によってランダムな富の移動が起こり、外貨建ての資産保有者は影響を被る。通貨の調整 によって急速な物品と労働力の競争力の調整が起こり、ドイツの通貨は急速に切り上げとなる。
Some might argue that the break-up of the euro might achieve the inevitable changes in competitiveness more quickly and more painlessly than the alternative of making the same adjustments far more slowly within the eurozone. After all, many other currency regimes have broken up, and in general the sky has not fallen in. However, a disorderly break-up of the euro could be much worse. There are three reasons for this: 一部の論者はユーロの分裂による競合力調整は不可避であり、ほかの選択肢に比べて急速で比較的痛みの少ないものになると いう。結局のところ今までにも多くの通貨が破綻したが、天が地に落ちる事は無かったのだと。しかしながら無秩序のユーロ の分裂は大変悪い結果をもたらす。その理由は3つあって:
First, the resulting exchange rate adjustments would be large and completely unexpected, and few economic entities would be hedged against them. This would mean that the wealth and income transfers would be substantial and chaotic. It is likely that the losers would cut their spending by more than the gainers would increase their spending, so aggregate demand could plummet. 第一に結果的に起こる通貨交換比率の調整は大きな、全く予期しなかったものとなるので、これをヘッジしている機関はない。 これは富と収入の移動が相当のものとなり、かつ混乱に満ちたものになることを意味する。損失を被った人の消費抑制は利益 を得た人の消費拡大を上回るだろう。このため需要の低下が起こる。
Second, among the main losers would be the banks in the revaluing countries, including Germany and probably France, which would see the value of their foreign assets, eg Italian bonds, decline sharply. Such a banking shock would not be exactly welcome in the present circumstances. 第二に通貨切り上げ国の銀行は大きな被害を被るので、それはドイと恐らくフランスを含むが、その国の銀行は外貨建資産、 例えばイタリア国債の価値が急速に低下する。このような銀行のショックは全く歓迎できない類である。
Third, if the euro were to disappear altogether, the extra complication of how to handle all the contracts denominated in euros would be a legal morass which would take many years to resolve, and in the meantime the financing of international trade could collapse for an unknown period of time. (The extraordinary legal complications are discussed here.) 第三に、ユーロが完全に消滅するのなら、ユーロ建て契約をどう処理するのかと言う複雑な法的問題が発生する。これは処理 に何年もを要しかねない。そういう不確定性は国際通商を崩壊させる。
Once investors start to look over this precipice in earnest, the resulting stampede out of all euro-denominated assets could become self-fulfilling. And any disorderly break-up of the euro would, at the very least, result in a period of deep European recession, before the eventual economic recovery could begin. こうした問題を投資家が検討し始めると、ユーロ建ての資産からの一斉逃避がおこる。ユーロの無秩序の分裂は、少なくと も深刻な欧州のリセッションを生む。
So serious are the risks that Germany and France are today reported to be contemplating urgent steps to save the euro by adopting earlier fiscal union, and by increasing financial support for peripheral bond markets (Route 3). この問題が深刻なためにフランスとドイツはユーロ救済に向かっていて(図のルート3)周辺国の国債の支援を増大させる。 About time, too. そういうことをすべき時に至っている
To quote Neil Sedaka: シンガーソングライターのニール・セダカの言葉を引用すれば: I beg of you don’t say goodbye お願いだから、サヨナラを言わないで Can’t we give our love another try 私達の愛を取り戻すべく、もう一度 Come on baby let’s start anew ねえやり直そうよ ‘Cause breaking up is hard to do だって、別れるのは辛いし
So the question arises, should the rest of the world take over management of Europe to prevent or mitigate disaster? Specifically, should the US Federal Reserve assume leadership as a monetary superpower and impose policy on a paralyzed ECB, acting as a global lender of last resort?
BERLIN?Euro-zone leaders are negotiating a potentially groundbreaking fiscal pact aimed at preventing the currency bloc from fracturing by tethering its members even closer together. ユーロ圏の指導者らは潜在的に大きな意味を持つ財政統合に向けての協定を検討中で、これは共通通貨圏の加盟国をより緊密 に拘束し、不安定化を防止する狙いを有する。
The proposal, which hasn't yet been agreed to, would make budget discipline legally binding and enforceable by European authorities. Officials regard the moves as a first step toward closer fiscal and economic coordination within the currency area. That would mark a seminal shift in the governance of the 17-nation euro-zone. この提案はまだ公的に議論されていないが財政規律の確保をめざし、ユーロ本部の権限によってそれを強制する法的拘束力 を持つものとなる。この動きはユーロ圏諸国の財政統合を一歩進めるものとなる。
European officials hope a new agreement, which would aim to shrink the excessive public debt that helped spark the crisis, would persuade the European Central Bank to undertake more drastic action to reverse the recent selloff in euro-zone debt markets. ユーロ本部は、この協定によって加盟国が危機を拡大した過剰な公的負債を縮小することになり、危機を解消できることを期待 している。またECBが最近のユーロ国債市場での暴落に対抗して、それを巻き戻す、よりドラスティックな行動を引き受ける ことを可能にする。
The proposed pact represents the boldest attempt by Europe's leaders to halt the spread of the crisis since they agreed in July to offer Greece a new bailout and to bolster the region's bailout fund. Those steps, initially hailed as a breakthrough, quickly proved insufficient. 提案された協定はユーロ圏指導者等による7月以降のギリシャに始まる危機の拡散を防止するための最も大胆なものとなる。 7月のギリシャ救済の協定は当初はブレークスルーとみなされたが、その後急速に効果的でないことが証明された。
Two years into a crisis that has posed the biggest challenge to European integration since World War II, the Continent's leaders now appear to be pursing a path that officials have long regarded as economically necessary but politically untenable?fiscal union. 2年越しのユーロ危機はWWII以降のヨーロッパ統合に対する最大の挑戦で有り、欧州の指導者らは今や経済的に必要であるもの の政治的に達成不可能とみなされてきた財政統合という目標を追い求めている。
As recently as this summer, measures such as a centralized fiscal-enforcement authority with power to seize control of national budgets would have been viewed in most capitals as an unacceptable invasion of sovereignty. That such steps are now under serious consideration reflects the perilous turn the crisis has taken in recent months. この夏まではEU本部による中央集権的な、加盟国国家予算に介入することのできる財政政策の強制というのは受け入れ不可能と みなされてきた。独立国家の主権への干渉になるとされた。しかし今やこうした協定が真剣に検討されている。それは最近数ヶ 月の危機的状況を反映している。
The turmoil recently has encroached into the core of the euro zone, fueling fears that the currency bloc could collapse. Thus far, the ECB has refused to intervene more aggressively, demanding that the region's governments pursue fiscal and economic reforms. ユーロ圏のコアとなる国において最近の状況は単一通圏の崩壊への恐怖を呼んでいる。ECBはより積極的な介入を拒否していて 加盟国政府が経済的及び財政的改革を進めるべきとしている。
Germany and France are leading the negotiations on the possible new pact among the euro zone's 17 members. One European official said there remains "a lot of arm wrestling" over its precise contents. The plan could face resistance from some governments worried about a loss of sovereignty. But euro-zone officials don't expect struggling southern European countries to resist strongly because most are desperate to stay in the euro and to entice the ECB to give them more help. Moreover, the proposed pact would merely create a mechanism for enforcing fiscal discipline that they have agreed to already. Under the terms of their bailouts, their governments agreed to accept close supervision of their budgets by the International Monetary Fund and the EU. ドイツとフランスが、この協定の推進者であるがEU高官に依れば、その詳細な内容については依然多くの議論があるという。 この計画は国家主権を失うことを恐れる一部の国の政府の抵抗にあうことが予想されるがEU高官は南部ヨーロ一パ諸国は強い 抵抗を示さないと予想している。何故なら、それら諸国はユーロ圏に存続し続けることを必死で願いECBの支援を必要とするた めである。更に言えば提案されている協定というのは財政規律確保を求めるもので、それはEUへの加盟時に約束したことである。 救済の条件としてそれら諸国はEUとIMFによる予算の監督を受入れると約束している。
If agreement is reached, a pact could be announced before the next European summit in early December and could come into force as soon as early 2012, according to officials close to the talks. 高官に依れば、この協定が合意されれば、次回の12月初旬のEUサミット以前に発表されることがあり得る。それは2012年初期 から発効し得るという。
A majority of euro-zone governments hope that the pact would be an unstated quid pro quo for massive intervention in bond markets by the ECB. Many policy makers, investors and economists believe that only decisive ECB action can stop the unraveling of euro-zone debt markets and the collapse of Europe's historic experiment with a common currency. 多数派のユーロ圏加盟国は、この協定がECBによる国債市場への巨額介入の交換条件であると不文のうちに(=明文化されない が)示していると期待している。政策立案者、投資家、エコノミストらはECBの断固たる行動のみがユーロ圏国債市場の破綻と 共通通貨によるヨーロッパの歴史的実験の崩壊を防ぐことが得きると信じている(後略)
WSJ記事の追補を書いておくと: -------------------------------- Some ECB officials are expected to vote against any increase in the bank's firefighting role, including German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, the leading critic of central-bank intervention in bond markets. ECBの巨額介入に反対するドイツ中央銀行の総裁、Jens Weidmannがいるが、EU高官は、これを押しきれると思っている
Governments are hoping other ECB members will outvote Mr. Weidmann?especially if they are confident the German government supports the move. The ECB, though independent, has been loath to take actions that could spark a political backlash against it in Germany, the euro's most powerful member. ドイツ中央銀行のトップの反対はあるがメルケル政権の支持があるので、この提案を進めることが可能と見ている。しかし ドイツ国内に、この措置に対する政治的バックラッシュがあり得る
The possible euro-zone pact would be open to noneuro members that volunteer to join, but it would go ahead with or without them, euro-zone officials say. One legal precedent for such a coalition of the willing, officials say, is the Schengen agreement, under which a subset of EU members scrapped controls at their mutual borders. この協定は参加がボランタリーで、加盟国の参加があろうがなかろうが成立させる。協定を支持する加盟国だけの連合という 形になるが、それは国境条項についてのSchengen協定と同じ扱い;
ムーディズによる、ユーロ危機へのコメンタリー、たいへん厳しい見方。一連のデフォルト発生があれば幾つかの国の ユーロ離脱さえ有り得るという見方に状況判断を下方修正しているような(FTアルファビレ) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- While Moody’s central scenario remains that the euro area will be preserved without further widespread defaults, even this ‘positive’scenario carries very negative rating implications in the interim period. The rating agency notes that the political impetus to implement an effective resolution plan may only emerge after a series of shocks, which may lead to more countries losing access to market funding for a sustained period and requiring a support programme. This would very likely cause those countries’ ratings to be moved into speculative grade in view of the solvency tests that would likely be required and the burden-sharing that might be imposed if (as is likely) support were to be needed for a sustained period.
However, over the past few weeks, the likelihood of even more negative scenarios has risen. This reflects, among other factors, the political uncertainties in Greece and Italy, uncertainty around the final haircut imposed on holders of Greek debt, the emphasis in the recent Euro Summit statement on the conditional nature of the existing support programmes and the further worsening of the economic outlook across the euro area. Alternative outcomes fall into two broad categories: those involving one or more defaults by euro area countries (in addition to Greece’s PSI programme); and those additionally involving exits from the euro area.
? The probability of multiple defaults (in addition to Greece’s private sector involvement programme) by euro area countries is no longer negligible. In Moody’s view, the longer the liquidity crisis continues, the more rapidly the probability of defaults will continue to rise.
? A series of defaults would also significantly increase the likelihood of one or more members not simply defaulting, but also leaving the euro area. Moody’s believes that any multiple-exit scenario ? in other words, a fragmentation of the euro ? would have negative repercussions for the credit standing of all euro area and EU sovereigns.(ry This entry was posted by Kate Mackenzie on Monday, November 28th, 2011 at 5:36 ttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/11/28/766141/even-the-good-times-will-be-bad-for-eu-says-moodys/
The rating agency notes that the political impetus to implement an effective resolution plan may only emerge after a series of shocks, which may lead to more countries losing access to market funding for a sustained period and requiring a support programme.
Bond investors are once again the skeptics. Euro-zone hopes are still propping up US stocks, but doubts are being reflected in the Treasury market. Prices have been on the rise throughout the US session, with short-dated notes the first to turn higher. Two-year notes are up a fraction in price, while the 10-year is now down just 6/32, yielding 1.984%. The 10-year yielded 2.08% at its worst levels today.
“It’s still a nervous market,” says James DeMasi at Stifel Nicolaus. “Rumors of a plan aren’t sufficient. We need to see real action.”
野村の同地域向けエクスポージャーは、ギリシャ、イタリア、アイルランド、ポルトガル、スペイン(GIIPS)向けな ど9月末時点で合計35億5400万ドル(約2760億円)あり、そのうち約80%がイタリアで主に国債だった。今回削減したのは 全体の約75%に相当。11月24日時点の残高は8億8400万ドルとなった(ry ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d8ad24cc-19cd-11e1-ba5d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1er67Punh November 28, 2011 6:24 pm Japan’s Nomura slashes eurozone debt By Michiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo
南アフリカのダーバンでは、気候変動枠組み条約第17回締約国会議(COP17)が開幕。カナダのケント環境相はAP 通信に対し、京都議定書の脱退について発表できるタイミングではないと語った。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Canada/20111128/canada-durban-south-africa-climate-change-negotiations-111128/ Feds won't sign new climate deal without major emitters カナダ連邦政府は、主要なCo2排出国がサインしない限り気候変動の国際協定にサインしない CTV、カナダ (ビデオ、1分53秒、英語)Mon. Nov. 28 2011 6:47 PM ET
The federal government says it won't sign on to a new international climate change deal if the world's major emitters are not involved, while continuing to avoid questions on whether it will formally withdraw from the ten-year-old Kyoto Protocol.
ttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/11/28/winning_back_the_revolution?page=0,0 Winning Back the Revolution Most Egyptians want economic recovery, not more protests, according to national Gallup surveys conducted over the past eight months. Do activists have any chance of winning back the street? BY DALIA MOGAHED | NOVEMBER 28, 2011 Following are some of the most notable highlights from this groundbreaking survey. エジプトでの世論調査、ギャラップの報告から フォーリンポリシー
エジプトの議会選挙が進行中。アルジャジーラの「実況ブログ」 ttp://blogs.aljazeera.net/liveblog/Egypt Al Jazeera's Nadim Baba reports from Cairo that while authorities acknowledged Some infringements and breaches of campaigning ban, the widespread perception of the first day of voting was that "things actually went better than predicted."
フォーリンポリシーは現在ではワシントン・ポスト社の雑誌ですが、もともとは Samuel P. Huntington と Warren Demian Manshelの始めたもので当初はアカデミックな色彩、現在は時事ネタも扱う外交政策専門雑誌。寄稿者が時にリベラルより ということはなくて、比較的幅広い対象から成っています。 Wiki → http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_Policy
Foreign Policy's contributors include: Pulitzer Prize-winning military reporter Tom Ricks, international bestseller Stephen Walt, blogger Daniel W. Drezner, Christian Brose (Condoleezza Rice's longtime chief speechwriter), 9/11 Commission director Philip Zelikow, ex-senior White House aide Peter Feaver, top Pentagon official Dov Zakheim, John McCain's foreign policy adviser Steve Biegun, and Josh Rogin (a Washington journalist specializing in investigative reports on national security and foreign affairs).
29 November: German Constitutional Court to rule on EFSF amendment law. Several weeks ago the Constitutional Court imposed a temporary injunction on Germany’s EFSF amendment law, overruling the government’s proposed 9-person parliamentary committee for taking rapid action decisions on EFSF deployment. If this ruling is upheld, the government will have to table an amendment and vote it through. We view this as technical only and do not anticipate problems. The 41-person parliamentary budget committees will make the decisions instead. This will be slightly less efficient.
29 November: Italy auction. Bonds. 29 November: Belgium auction. Bills. 29 November: Portuguese Budget. The final vote on the 2012 budget is due in parliament.
29-30 November: Eurogroup/ECOFIN Finance Ministers meetings. As of now, this is the last scheduled EU finance ministers meeting of 2011. On the formal agenda are bank capital requirements and the 9 December European Council meeting, specifically as regards economic policy.
Strategist Jen Nordvig estimates that foreign investors’ exposure to eurozone debt and equity assets adds up to ?5,700bn, of which ?4,000bn is in the form of debt securities. Private sector investors account for ?2,200bn of this, while global central banks account for the remaining ?1,800bn. Jen Nordvigの推測に依れば、外国人投資家のユーロ圏の国債と株式などのエクスポージャーは5700Bユーロ。このうち 4,000Bユーロが債券である。民間セクターの投資は2,200Bユーロで、中央銀行の保有が1,800Bユーロ。
From all the data Nordvig and his colleagues have collated they’ve run a stress test scenario under which investors, spooked by the spread of the debt crisis toward core bond markets in Europe, liquidated 25 per cent of their holdings over a six month period. This, Nordvig points out, is consistent with the pace of recent cross-border asset sales in Italy and Spain and therefore a reasonable approximation of what might happen if there isn’t a credible policy response in the Eurozone tout de suite.
FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) -- Italy saw borrowing costs rise sharply as it sold a total of 7.5 billion euros ($10 billion) of a new three-year benchmark and other government bonds Tuesday. The Treasury sold 3.5 billion euros of three-year bonds, producing a euro-era record-high yield for a three-year of 7.89%, Reuters reported, up from 4.93% in a sale of three-year paper in October. A sale of September 2020 bonds saw the yield set at 7.28%, reports said, while a sale of March 2022 bonds produced a yield of 7.56%. Italian bond yields had risen sharply in the secondary market ahead of the sale. The 10-year yield remains up 24 basis points at 7.31%. Yields rise as prices fall.
First we had the ‘credit crunch’. Now some warn what Europe might in fact be experiencing is better described as a ‘collateral crunch’. まず最初はクレジット・クランチがあって、いまでは、ヨーロッパはコラテラル・クランチにあるとする議論が ・・・
Tracking the collateral crunch コラテラル・クランチの追跡 While soaring Libor rates were a key indicator of market stress during the credit crunch, the best indicator of collateral crunch intensity is instead the repo rate. The lower the rate, the greater the crunch. The wider the spread between Libor and the secured (repo) rate, the greater the general distress in the market. The following chart reveals just how good an indicator of general market stress it is:
今日のFTにあるNouriel Roubini教授の評論。イタリアの危機は緊縮財政政策だけでは乗り切ることが出来ず、 経済成長を可能にするために債務リストラが不可欠と論じる。さもなくばイタリアに巨額資金を注ぎこんでも 無駄で(ry --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2011/11/29/italys-debt-must-be-restructured/#axzz1f7VWK5b7 Italy’s debt must be restructured Nouriel Roubini
It is increasingly clear that Italy’s public debt is unsustainable and needs an orderly restructuring to avert a disorderly default. The eurozone’s wish to exclude private sector involvement from the design of the new European Stability Mechanism is pig-headed ? and lacks all credibility.
With public debt at 120 per cent of gross domestic product, real interest rates close to five per cent and zero growth, Italy would need a primary surplus of five per cent of gross domestic product ? not the current near-zero ? merely to stabilise its debt. Soon real rates will be higher and growth negative. Moreover, the austerity that the European Central Bank and Germany are imposing on Italy will turn recession into depression. ・・・・ Even current attempts to ramp up EFSF resources from the IMF (which is reportedly readying a ?400 to ?600bn programme to backstop Italy for the next 12-18 months), and from Brics, sovereign wealth funds and elsewhere, are bound to fail if the eurozone’s core is unwilling to increase its own contributions, and if the ECB is unwilling to play the role of an unlimited lender of last resort.
If, as appears likely, Italy remains stuck in an uncompetitive recession and is unable to regain market access in the next twelve months, then even if such large official resources were mobilised, they would be wasted on financing investors’ exit and thus postponing an inevitable debt restructuring that would then be more disorderly. (後略)
ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0502a28a-15c9-11e1-a691-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1er67Punh China’s rush into renewables: The way the world turns By Leslie Hook and Ed Crooks November 28, 2011 10:44 pm A Beijing-inspired drive in wind and solar power now faces its own set of market difficulties 中国の再生可能エネルギーへのラッシュ:世界の状況の変化の状況 中国政府主導で進めてきた風力発電と太陽光パネルは、今や市場で幾多の問題に遭遇している FT、28日
しかし中国の太陽光パネルの増産と輸出ラッシュで、欧州諸国は太陽光発電への政府補助金を引き下げ、市場は低迷して価格 が40%低下、業界はオーバーキャパシティ(需要の倍の生産能力)に陥っている。風力発電用タービンの製造業も類似の状況 にあるが、この業界では品質の問題クローズアップされ、政府主導でタービンの導入が進んだが昨年末時点の調査で27%の タービンは発電せずに遊休している(送配電システムに接続して安定化させる方法が未解決)風力発電タービンの二大製造会 社に巨額を出資しているファンドの創設者は温家宝首相の息子(Winston)である。 “Quality is not really a concern when choosing a turbine manufacturer, it’s more about guanxi [political connections] and who you know who can give you loans.” 中国の太陽光パネルや風力発電タービンの輸出ラッシュはアメリカを警戒させ、最近の両国の通商摩擦のネタになっている。 アメリカ側は中国政府の優遇措置がダンピング輸出のもとになっていると非難していて(ry
President Obama's slow ride down Gallup's daily presidential job approval index has finally passed below Jimmy Carter, earning Obama the worst job approval rating of any president at this stage of his term in modern political history. ギャラップの週間支持率調査に依れば、オバマ大統領の支持率が、同時期のカーター大統領のそれを下回った。 このため、政治史のなかで、翌年に大統領選挙を控える現職大統領として、オバマは最悪の支持率となった。
大統領選挙1年前の歴代大統領の支持率は:
-- Harry S. Truman: 54 percent. -- Dwight Eisenhower: 78 percent. -- Lyndon B. Johnson: 44 percent. -- Richard M. Nixon: 50 percent. -- Ronald Reagan: 54 percent. -- George H.W. Bush: 52 percent. -- Bill Clinton: 51 percent. -- George W. Bush: 55 percent.
Gallup put Obama's job approval rating at 43 percent compared to Carter's 51 percent.
The financial world is obsessed with stock market gyrations and bond yields. But the numbers that matter in the long run are those of US warships. Asia has been at the centre of the world economy for decades because security there can be taken for granted, and that is only because of the dominance of the US navy and air force in the western Pacific. Because 90 per cent of all commercial goods traded between continents travel by sea, the US navy, which does more than any other entity to protect these lines of communication, is responsible for globalisation as we know it. 金融の世界は、株式市場の動揺や国債のイールドで頭の中が一杯になっているけれど、長期的に問題となるものは米国海軍の 軍艦なのだ。アジアはここ数十年の世界経済の中心であるけれど、それは西太平洋の安全保障が米国海軍と空軍による覇権の 維持によって保たれているからなのだ。大陸間通商の90%は海運によるので、米国海軍は誰にもまして、シーレーンの安全を 保証してきた。それはグローバリゼーションを育成するための責任である。
There is no guarantee that this situation will last, however. In the 1980s era of high Reaganism, the US navy boasted close to 600 warships. In the 1990s, following the collapse of the Berlin Wall, that number fell to about 350. しかしこうした状況が永続するという保証は全くない。1980年代のレーガンの時代には米国海軍は約600の戦艦を擁していたが 1990年台にはベルリンの壁の崩壊の後に、この数は350にまで低下している。 (中略) Multipolar military orders are more unstable than unipolar ones because there are more points of interaction where miscalculations can occur. Yet unless the US is able to maintain a vigorous naval and air presence in the Indo -Pacific, the future of military power arrangements will be more multipolar. A world without US naval and air dominance will be one where powers such as China, Russia, India, Japan and others act more aggressively towards each other than they do now because they will all be far more insecure than they are now. Even China and Russia take advantage of secure sea lanes partly provided by the US. 多国間協調による軍事秩序というのは単一覇権による軍事秩序に比べてより不安定で、ミスカリキュレーションが起きやすい。 しかし米国が圧倒的な海軍と空軍のプレゼンスを実現できないならインド洋−太平洋の将来における軍事バランスは、現在より も多国的なものになる。米国海軍と空軍の覇権のない世界では、中国、ロシア、インド、日本、その他の国などが互いにより 活発に行動する。それは現在に比べてそうした状況がより不安定であるためである。現在は中国やロシアでさえ、米国が安全を 保証しているシーレーンの便益を受けている。
An Indo-Pacific without a strong US military presence would mean the Finlandisation by China of countries in the South China Sea, such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore. Indeed, Beijing, with its economic might and geographical proximity, may be less benign to its southern neighbours than has been the distant and democratic US. 強力な米国の軍事力のプレゼンスのないインド洋−太平洋というのは南支那海における中国と周辺国の(関係の)フィンランド 化を意味する。ベトナム、マレーシア、シンガポールなどがその対象国で経済大国であり地理的な支配国である中国は南側の 隣国にたいして、より遠慮のない行動をすると推測される。
Now that the congressional supercommittee in Washington has failed to achieve a compromise, the debt crisis may force historic cuts on the US navy and air force, resulting in fewer warships and curtailment of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter programme. The business community should hope that it does not happen. 米国の財政赤字問題で議会のスーパーコミティは合意形成に失敗し、このために米国の軍事費は強制的に歴史的な削減を迫られ る。それはより少数の軍艦やF35戦闘機の削減を意味する。ビジネスコミニティは、そうしたことの起こらないように希望すべ きなのだが。
Can the International Monetary Fund save the eurozone? No. But it can help. IMFはヨーロッパを救済できるか? 否。しかし、支援することは出来る。 (大胆に中略) So how might the IMF help? Now is the time for what John Maynard Keynes called “ruthless truth-telling”. And what is the truth that it should tell? It is that the eurozone has a choice between bad and calamitous alternatives. The bad alternative is radical policies to promote adjustment, while warding off a wave of sovereign debt restructurings, financial crises and a true depression. The calamitous alternative is that depression, along with a break-up of the project. The IMF should speak up for the world’s interest in the less bad outcome. The eurozone alone can make the choice.
(注)マーチンウルフはドイツの財政規律至上主義には批判的で: Third, the eurozone also needs long-term reforms that address its true weaknesses. But these will fail if Germany insists that fiscal discipline is all that matters. Fiscal indiscipline did not cause this crisis. Financial and broader private sector indiscipline, including by lenders in the core countries, was even more important
これは英国のガーディアンの記事。ただしこの新聞は経済に強い類ではないけど・・・ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/nov/29/eurozone-finance-ministers-imf-bailout-fund?INTCMP=SRCH Eurozone finance ministers turn to IMF to help bailout fund Fears of the debt crisis spreading, forcing the collapse of the euro and plunging the global economy into recession (部分抜粋)
But a confidential report from the European Commission and the European Central Bank said Monti would need to do more than already pledged. The report, obtained by The Guardian, said Monti had to go further in his promises to combat rampant tax evasion in Italy which is estimated to amount to 20% of gross domestic product. ガーディアンの入手した秘密報告書に依ればEUとECBはイタリアのモンティ首相が、既に約束した以上の事をする必要がある という。GDPの20%にも及ぶ脱税経の対処などを更に積極的に進める必要がある。
"The sovereign debt crisis has now moved from the periphery to Italy and other core euro area countries. Pressure on Italian sovereign bond yields is particularly acute, reflecting investors' mounting concerns with the sustainability of Italy's large public debt" of almost two trillion euros, the report said. 報告書は「ソブリン負債危機は周辺国からイタリア始めコア諸国に及び、イタリア国債イールドへの圧力峻厳であり、投資家 のイタリアの巨額負債の維持可能性への大いなる関心を示唆している」という。
"The risks of a full-blown sovereign liquidity crisis can increase rapidly in the absence of a determined policy response … Persistently high interest rates increase the risk of a self-fulfilling 'run' from Italy's sovereign debt. A liquidity crisis could then turn into a solvency crisis, whose repercussions for other large euro area countries would be very acute given their exposure to the Italian economy." 「ソブリン流動性危機が大荒れになる危険は政策の不在によって急速に増大し・・・継続する高金利はイタリアのソブリン負債 が(雪だるま式に)自己実現プロセスによって手に負えなくなる危険がある。流動性危機はソブリン危機に転換し、ユーロ圏の 大国はイタリア経済へのエクスポージャーのために大きな影響を受ける危険がある」
The leveraging scheme for the EFSF was drawn up by eurozone leaders at a summit a month ago. "It doesn'tlook like it will be [multiplied] 4-5 times," said a Brussels diplomat. "More like 2.5 times. That's probably not enough to restore confidence in Italy or Spain." This was a view repeated by the Dutch finance minister, Jan Kees de Jager. EFSFをレバレッジするスキームが欧州サミットで承認されたが「それは資金量を4−5倍にはできないように見える」「より妥当 な見方は2.5倍である。その量はイタリア或いはスペインの救済には不十分である」
Tuesday night's meeting came ahead of another crucial summit of EU leaders next week at which Germany and France, while still at odds over central details, will launch a drive for a eurozone "fiscal union", with governments required to forfeit national powers over fiscal, budget, tax and spending policies to a eurozone body. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, is the biggest obstacle to any prompt and radical action aimed at stabilising th e bond markets and ringfencing the euro. ドイツとフランスは依然としてユーロ圏の「財政統合」の詳細について合意できていない。メルケル首相が早期のラディカル な合意にとって最大の障害である。
>>847 6:39a U.S. stock futures rise after China move 6:35a Europe stocks rally on China reserve rate cut 6:25a U.S. stock futures gain after China RRR move
“There aren’t many coincidences,” retired Major-General Giora Eiland told Israel’s army radio, noting that it was the second attack on an Iranian nuclear site in a month. “When there are so many events, there is probably some sort of guiding hand, though perhaps it’s the hand of God,” said Eiland, who is Israel’s former national security chief. 前イスラエル軍のトップである(退役)大将のGiora Eilandは、イランのイスファン濃縮施設での事故について軍のラジオで 語って、「これは偶然の事故ではない」といい、イランの核施設への、この月の2回目の攻撃であるとした
Israeli intelligence honcho Dan Meridor suggested the guiding hand might be closer to home ? and fanned speculation that an undeclared war against Iran was already under way. “There are countries who impose economic sanctions and there are countries who act in other ways in dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat,” he said. イスラエル諜報部のボスであるDan Meridorはイランの核開発に対する非宣言の戦争が既に進行していることを暗示して「イラ ンの核開発に対して経済制裁を課すという国もあれば、そういう手法とは別のやり方をする国もある」と述べた。 イラン政府は核施設での事故を否定し、イスファンでは事故なぞ発生していないと述べている(後略)
Some buildings appear to have been completely destroyed. Some of the destruction seen in the image may have also resulted from subsequent controlled demolition of buildings and removal of debris. There do not appear to be many pieces of heavy equipment such as cranes or dump trucks on the site, and a considerable amount of debris is still present. About the same number of trucks are visible in the image after the blast as in an image from approximately two months prior to the blast. Thus, most of the damage seen in the November 22, 2011 image likely resulted from the explosion. 衛星写真で見ると一部の建物が完全に破壊されている。一部の破壊は事故の後処理のための建物の残骸の処理であるかも しれない。クレーンやダンプトラックにような重機は見当たらない。かなりの残骸が放置されたままである。爆発の2ヶ月 前の衛星写真と比べて同じくらいの数のトラックが見られる。この写真に見られるほとんどのダメージは12日の爆発による と見られる ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://updatednews.ca/2011/11/30/photos-show-iran-base-decimated-by-blast/ Despite speculation the incident may have been a covert Israeli or US-backed attack, the Revolutionary Guards have repeatedly said the blast that rocked the base in Bid Ganeh was an accident. The chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, General Hassan Firouzabadi, has said the base was being used for the production of an unspecified “experimental product” that could be used against the United States or Israel.
<これは雑誌TIMEの記事> ttp://battleland.blogs.time.com/2011/11/30/things-should-be-getting-pretty-tense-in-tehran/ Iran described the blast ? which reportedly killed Major General Hassan Moghaddam, the key leader of Iran's ballistic missile program, and 16 others ? as an accident."The blast occurred as Iran had achieved a major milestone in the development of a new missile," Brennan said. "Iran was apparently performing a volatile procedure involving a missile engine at the site when the blast occurred." Mighty suspicious. The purported accident comes following the deaths of at least three Iranian scientists working on Tehran's nuclear or missile programs in the past two years, the suspicious introduction of malicious software known as Stuxnet that has hampered Iran's nuclear development, and mounting pressure from the U.S. and other nations determined to halt what they believe is Tehran's final sprint toward nuclear weapons. Then, on Monday afternoon, residents in Isfahan province in central Iran reported hearing a loud explosion that may have come from a nuclear fuel-production plant. Local authorities dismissed any link between the blast and the power plant. “Maybe somebody's water heater exploded,” Mohammad-Mehdi Ismaeli, an aide to Isfahan's governor, told a local news agency.
ttp://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/12/201112135719182598.html Early Egypt election results favor Islamists Unofficial numbers suggest that the Muslim Brotherhood's political party won perhaps 40 per cent of votes. Last Modified: 01 Dec 2011 06:33 エジプト議会選挙:初期の非公式な数字ではムスリム同胞団が約40%を獲得 アルジャジーラ
Diaa Rashwan, the head of the Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, told Egypt's state-run Al-Ahram that Islamist parties - including the FJP, Nour, and several other smaller parties - could collectively win 65 per cent of seats in the first round of voting. 国内紙に見通しを語ったアナリストのDiaa Rashwanは、幾多の少数党派を含めて、イスラミストが65%を獲得すると予想;
UBSのアナリストTao Wangのコメンタリー While the average GDP growth for 2012E is still respectable at 8%, we expect the slowdown in the next couple of quarters to be felt sharply. We expect growth to drop to 8.5% and 7.7% in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012, with the q/q growth slowing to 7.8% and 6%, respectively. That would be the slowest growth since Q4 2008 and for some sectors, notably the export sector and commodity complex, the fall may feel like a hard landing. Subsequently, the easing of macro policy should start to lift investment and economic activity.
UBS’ sanguine view relies on the boost in social housing spending, which they say will be “the key to avoiding a hard landing”.
地方政府の現状 Faced with the political imperative to meet their targets, local governments have done two things to reach their targets: 1. Started projects by digging holes in the ground ? and postponed any actual building until funds become available. 2. Reclassified developments they were doing anyway as social housing. Thus, downtown redevelopment, factory and university dormitories and so on all count now as social housing. We asked our developers how much of the local government?s social housing build was really ?new? housing; two-thirds of them said only 0-30%