Apple hit Samsung with a one-two punch this weekend as U.S and Dutch courts ruled against Samsung in its continuing legal battle with the iPhone manufacturer.
The export and investment-led model behind China’s economic miracle looks increasingly obsolete, heralding a shift with consequences for consumers and companies worldwide 輸出と投資に支えられてきた中国の経済成長モデルは、しだいに陳腐化して見え、世界の消費者と企業にそのシフトの影響を告げている
But events in that city do represent a crucial turning point for the nation. “What’s happening in Wenzhou is a reflection of the current Chinese model coming to an end,” says Huang Yiping of Barclays Capital about the country’s export-led, investment -driven growth paradigm. “China’s economic success over the last 30 years has been built on cheap capital, cheap labour, cheap energy and cheap land but this has now produced huge imbalances and inefficiencies that are causing more and more problems.” 中国の温州では最近、輸出企業の苦境が伝えられている。それは中国経済全体を左右する規模のものではないのだが、中国にとって ターニングポイントになるのかもしれない。バークレイズ・キャピタルのHuang Yipingは「温州で起こっていることはこれまでの中国 モデルが終わりの段階に来たということの反映だ」という。彼の言う中国モデルというのは、輸出主導、投資の牽引する成長パラダイ ムのことである。「過去30年間の中国経済の成長の成功は、安価な賃金、安価な資本、安価なエネルギー、安価な土地の上に築かれて きた。しかしそのため、今やインバランスと非効率が生まれ、それらは増大する諸問題を起こしている」
“The drivers of China’s meteoric rise are on the wane,” says Robert Zoellick, World Bank president. “Resources have largely shifted from agriculture to industry; as the labour force shrinks and the population ages, there are fewer workers to support retirees; and productivity increases are on the decline.” 世界銀行総裁のロバート・ゼーリックは「中国の華々しい成長のドライバーが減衰している」という。「資源が農業セクターから大いに 産業セクターにシフトして労働力が不足し、人口は高齢化している。退職者を支える労働者が少なくなって労働生産性の向上が鈍ってき ている」
“When reforms began 30 years ago, the investment rate was around 25 per cent of GDP and the economy grew at around 10 per cent a year, but now we are investing half of GDP for the same rate of growth; that tells you something about capital efficiency,” says Mr Huang of Barclays Capital. バークレイズ・キャピタルの Mr Huangは「30年前に(ケ小平の)改革解放が始まったときには、投資はGDPの25%で経済は10%成長だった。 しかし今では投資はGDPの半分で、成長率は同じだ。それは資本の効率性について何かを教えている」という。
中国経済が早期にハードランディングすると予想する向きは少ないが、しかし But there is unlikely to be a return to the boom years of the previous decade, when inflation remained dormant as GDP rose. Instead, growth will probably be 8 per cent or less, accompanied by persistent price rises ? HSBC predicts average consumer inflation of 5 per cent from 2011 to 2015, compared with 2 per cent from 2001 to 2010. 以前の10年のような高度成長に戻ることはなさそうである。現状のインフレの下では成長率は8%かそれ以下であろう。HSBCの予想では2011 年から2015年のインフレ率は5%で、これは2001年から2010年の2%よりも高い。
“China has limited time to effect a radical political and economic shift,” according to George Magnus of UBS Investment Bank. “If this shift doesn’t start in earnest soon, the Chinese economy will succumb to a credit and investment bust from which significantly slower growth would follow, and this will be especially sensitive in a China where incidents of social unrest are increasing significantly in number, intensity and breadth.” (後略)
10月17日(ブルームバーグ):ドイツのショイブレ財務相は、欧州の首脳らは23日にブリュッセルで開催する首脳会議で、ユーロ圏債務 危機の「決定的な解決策」を示すことはないと述べた。ロイター通信が報じた。 ロイターによるとショイブレ財務相はデュッセルドルフでの講演で、ユーロ圏諸国は域内危機の解決策で、ギリシャ債務の削減を含め5 つの要素で合意を目指すと述べた。 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204346104576636592653628346.html?mod=googlenews_wsj Schauble: EU Likely to Adopt a 9% Capital Ratio By TOM FAIRLESS EUROPE NEWSOCTOBER 17, 2011, 8:32 A.M. ET
DUSSELDORF?European leaders will likely agree on new measures to combat market uncertainty at their summit this weekend, including a 9% Tier-1 capital ratio for systemically important banks, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble said Monday. However, Mr. Schauble added that a permanent solution to the debt crisis is unlikely to come out of the summit. Speaking at a conference in Dusseldorf, Mr. Schauble said he "assumes" European Union leaders will agree a Tier-1 capital ratio?the ratio of a bank's core equity capital to its total risk-weighted assets?of 9% for so-called systemically important financial institutions. (略) European leaders will take steps to "provide cover for uncertainty in financial markets", although a permanent solution is unlikely, Mr. Schauble said. "We need a durable solution for Greece," which will involve a reduction of Greece's debt, Mr. Schauble said. However, some measures to resolve the crisis, including changes to the EU's treaties, will take longer to resolve, he said. Germany's constitutional "debt brake" is important for the stability of the euro zone, and a similar agreement is needed at a European level, the finance minister added. Germany's "debt brake" law forces the federal and state governments to virtually eliminate their structural budget deficits over the next five to ten years. Germany's government has no hidden agenda to increase inflation, Mr. Schauble said.
ドイツの「"debt brake" law」というのは: The debt brake, with a 0.35 per cent of GDP debt ceiling from 2016, was inserted into the constitution with the necessary two-thirds parliamentary majority reached thanks to grand coalition backing. ttp://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/0129/1224288526685.html
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has made it clear that “dreams that are taking hold again now that with this package everything will be solved and everything will be over on Monday won’t be able to be fulfilled,” Steffen Seibert, Merkel’s chief spokesman, said at a briefing in Berlin today. The search for an end to the crisis “surely extends well into next year.” ドイツのメルケル首相の広報官は月曜日に「ユーロ危機の問題が、すべて(23日のブラッセルでの欧州首脳会議のある)月曜日に解決される という夢のような話があるが、そういうことは実現しない。問題の解決には来年までかかることは確実」と述べた。
Leaders won’t present a “definitive solution” for the euro region’s debt crisis at the summit in Brussels, Reuters cited German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble as saying. ドイツのWolfgang Schaeuble財務相はユーロ圏の負債危機についてブラッセルのサミットで断固たる措置が欧州の指導者によって決定される ということはないだろうと述べたとロイターが報道した。
The Bigs ? Big Wall Street, Big Government, Big Labor, and Big Business ? are all protected classes in the American political system. The tax code, regulatory regime, and campaign finance laws are all written by those powerful enough to hire an army of lobbyists to descend on Washington. Labor unions pushed their way ahead of bond holders when the Establishment bailed out Chrysler. Solyndra got venture funding from the middle class taxpayer after spending $1.9 million lobbying the Establishment.
To be sure, the Establishment is a bipartisan problem plaguing our nation. But this does not necessarily mean that the solution to the problem must be found outside the two-party system.
In 2010, the tea party movement struck the first blow to the Establishment by working within the Republican Party to elect limited government, constitutional conservatives. Because their aim is to return power to individuals and localities, the tea party is the only organic, grass roots movement in this country that is by its very nature subversive to the political Establishment and therefore to the culture of “The Bigs.” ttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/10/17/the_washington_establishments_big_problem_111705.html
Big Journalism has learned that the Occupy Washington DC movement is working with well-known media members to craft its demands and messaging while these media members report on the movement. Someone has made the emails from the Occupy Wall Street email distro public and searchable. The names in the list are a veritable who’s who in media. Journolist 2.0 includes well known names such as MSNBC’s Dylan Ratigan, Rolling Stone’s Matt Taibbi who both are actively participating; involvement from other listers such as Bill Moyers and Glenn Greenwald plus well-known radicals like Noam Chomsky, remains unclear. The list also includes a number of radical organizers, such as Kevin Zeese.
●EFSFをレバレッジする手法 EFSFをレバレッジして440Bユーロの手元資金を元に2000Bを調達可能にするというアイデアがあるけれど、実際は440Bユーロのうち、 ギリシャ、アイルランド、ポルトガルにコミットした資金と非常用準備資金を除くと、新たに使えるのは200Bユーロ程度で、これを もとにレバレッジしてできるのは1000Bユーロまでであろう。この資金でイタリアとスペインの国債を購入すると、今後3年分くらい はまかなえる。 筆者の予想は、出てきそうなパッケージとして、ギリシャ負債の200Bユーロのカット、銀行資本強化に300Bユーロ、EFSFのレバレッジ で1000Bユーロの準備、といったところ。 Overall, then, my litmus tests for the package are that it needs to reduce Greek debt by ?200bn, that it needs to add ?300bn to bank capital, and also add ?1,000bn to the effective capacity of the EFSF. The first two components look difficult, but the third is critical, and it looks more probable that it can be achieved. There is no room for disappointment on that score.
Moody’s has published its annual credit report on France, saying while the economy is robust, its “government debt metrics” are now among the weakest of its Aaa peers. It goes on to say the stable outlook for the country’s rating is coming under pressure from the potential for need to provide additional support to other European sovereigns or to its own banking system. ムーディーズはフランスの年次格付け報告書の中で、経済は順調であるが政府による債務の扱いについてAaa格付け国の中で最弱であり ほかのユーロ圏諸国へのサポートのために、また国内銀行システムの支援のために、潜在的な格下げ圧力があるとした。
A couple of key excerpts: The deterioration in debt metrics and the potential for further contingent liabilities to emerge are exerting pressure on the stable outlook of the government’s Aaa debt rating. … Over the next three months, Moody’s will monitor and assess the stable outlook in terms of the government’s progress in implementing these measures, while taking into account any potential adverse economic or financial market developments. Aaa格付けの安定性に対する潜在的圧力として他国へのライアビリティの不確かさや債務についての状況の悪化があって・・・ 今後3ヶ月間、ムーディズは政府のこれらの問題への対処を、現行の安定的見通しに関連してモニターしアセスを行う。
ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5ce78e18-f8b7-11e0-ad8f-00144feab49a.html#axzz1arlKcwBg Rest of world not immune to eurozone ills GLOBAL INSIGHT October 17, 2011 9:54 pm By Chris Giles in London No one should underestimate the difficulty of finding the best outcome ユーロ圏債務危機に、他の国は免疫性があるわけではない By Chris Giles FT、17日 どの国も、この問題の解決策を見つけることの困難さを過小評価すべきではない
As the rest of the world cheers France and Germany on, it has yet to realise it is also part of the equation. Preventing an economic calamity is clearly in the interests of Britain, the US and even Australia. So they would be right to put their money on the line to help the eurozone. *フランスとドイツに任せておけばよいという類ではないのでグローバル経済への悪影響を防ぐために英米豪なども資金援助すべき、という
How should liberals feel about Occupy Wall Street? If you follow politics and you think of yourself as a liberal, then you have undoubtedly been grappling with that question in recent weeks. At first blush, it would be difficult not to cheer the protesters who have descended on lower Manhattan?and are massing in other cities across the United States?because they have chosen a deserving target. Wall Street should be protested. あなた自身の政治的立場がリベラルであるとすれば、「ウオール街を占拠せよ」運動を支持すべきかと問うたことであろう。一見すれば 多くの問題を抱えるウオール街を標的とする抗議行動は歓迎すべきものであるかのように見える。
But, to draw on the old cliche, the enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend. Just because liberals are frustrated with Wall Street does not mean that we should automatically find common cause with a group of people who are protesting Wall Street. Indeed, one of the first obligations of liberalism is skepticism?of governments, of arguments, and of movements. And so it is important to look at what Occupy Wall Street actually believes and then to ask two, related questions: Is their rhetoric liberal, or at least a close cousin of liberalism? And is this movement helpful to the achievement of liberal aims? しかし、私の敵の敵が私の味方とは限らないということわざの言うように、リベラル勢力がウオール街にフラストレーとしているからといって 「ウオール街を占拠せよ」運動を自動的に支持すべきというわけではない。リベラリズムのひとつの責務というのは政府への批判的な見方、 議論への批判的な見方、運動への批判的な見方である。「ウオール街を占拠せよ」運動について問うべきことがあって、そのレトリックは リベラルなのか? あるいは少なくともリベラリズムに近いといえるのか? この運動はリベラリズムを達成する助けになるのもなのか? ・・・ One of the core differences between liberals and radicals is that liberals are capitalists. リベラルとラディカルを区別するひとつの中核的な違いは、リベラルが資本主義者であることだ ・・・ These are not just substantive complaints. They also beg the strategic question of whether the protesters will help or hurt the cause of liberalism この社説は言葉の上で運動に文句を言うためのものではなくて、ここには戦略的な疑問がある。彼らの抗議運動はリベラリズムの大義にとって 支援なのか有害なのかという疑問である(後略)
「ウオール街を占拠せよ」抗議行動に参加中の200人に10月10日に行った世論調査 WSJ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204479504576637082965745362.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_carousel_2 Half (52%) have participated in a political movement before, virtually all (98%) say they would support civil disobedience to achieve their goals, and nearly one-third (31%) would support violence to advance their agenda. 参加者の52%は以前に政治活動に参加の経験あり、98%は目的のために市民的非服従を支持、31%はアジェンダ達成のための暴力を肯定
The vast majority of demonstrators are actually employed, and the proportion of protesters unemployed (15%) is within single digits of the national unemployment rate (9.1%). 参加者のほとんどは職を持っていて、失業中の人は15% An overwhelming majority of demonstrators supported Barack Obama in 2008. Now 51% disapprove of the president while 44% approve, and only 48% say they will vote to re-elect him in 2012, while at least a quarter won't vote. 参加者の大多数は2008年大統領選挙でオバマ支持、現在は51%がオバマ不支持、2012年にオバマに投票すると答えたのは48%。少なくとも 参加者の四分の一は2012年にオバマに投票しない。
Fewer than one in three (32%) call themselves Democrats, while roughly the same proportion (33%) say they aren't represented by any political party. 支持政党を見ると最大の層(33%)は無党派で、民主党支持者は32%
Sixty-five percent say that government has a moral responsibility to guarantee all citizens access to affordable health care, a college education, and a secure retirement?no matter the cost. By a large margin (77%-22%), they support raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans, but 58% oppose raising taxes for everybody, with only 36% in favor. And by a close margin, protesters are divided on whether the bank bailouts were necessary (49%) or unnecessary (51%). 65%は政府が全ての市民に適正価格の健康保険、大学教育、老齢年金を提供する責任があるとし、最富裕層への増税は77%-22%の比率で多数が 賛成。一般人への増税は58%が反対、36%が賛成。銀行救済は必要であったかについて必要=49%、不要=51%
Thus Occupy Wall Street is a group of engaged progressives who are disillusioned with the capitalist system and have a distinct activist orientation. Among the general public, by contrast, 41% of Americans self-identify as conservative, 36% as moderate, and only 21% as liberal. ウオール外を占拠せよの参加者のこうした回答から政治的スタンスを計れば、彼らは資本主義システムに幻滅し政治活動にエンゲージした進歩 派で活動家の傾向を有する。アメリカの一般市民は、これに対比してみると41%が自分を保守派といい、36%が穏健派と定義し、21%がリベラ ルと自己定義している(抗議行動参加者の意識と一般国民それは大きくずれていて、一致していない)
ttp://www.politico.com/news/stories/1011/66228.html Douglas Schoen warns White House: Don’t back ‘Occupy Wall Street’By MJ LEE | 10/18/11 6:46 AM EDT Updated: 10/18/11 7:21 AM EDT 世論調査の専門家Douglas Schoenはホワイトハウスに警告「ウオール街を占拠せよ」運動を支持すべきではない By MJ LEE ポリティコ (部分抜粋)
Pollster Douglas Schoen is out with a warning for President Barack Obama: Supporting Occupy Wall Street could cost you a second -term.“President Obama and the Democratic leadership are making a critical error in embracing the Occupy Wall Street movement? and it may cost them the 2012 election,” Schoen said in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday. 世論調査の専門家Douglas SchoenはWSJに評論を寄稿してホワイトハウスに警告し、そういうことは大統領選挙の再選を駄目にする事につなが るとのべた。 The movement, which has spread beyond New York City over the last month, “reflects values that are dangerously out of touch with the broad mass of the American people?and particularly with swing voters who are largely independent and have been trending away from the president since the debate over health-care reform,” he wrote. 「この抗議行動は広範なアメリカ国民の多数派からみて危険なほどにアウト・オブ・タッチであり、特に無党派層の医療改革以降に大統領に距 離を置いているスイング投票者にとって問題であるとした。
Schoen presents what he touts is probably “the first systematic random sample of Occupy Wall Street opinion,” including data that he says demonstrates the fact that the protesters represent “an unrepresentative segment of the electorate that believes in radical redistribution of wealth, civil disobedience and, in some instances, violence,” and that their common bond is “a deep commitment to left-wing policies.” 彼は「ウオール街を占拠せよ」運動の参加者に初めて世論調査を行い、抗議行動参加者たちは「有権者の意見を代表しないラディカルな富の 再配分や市民的否服従行動の支持者たちで一部に暴力行為を肯定する」人たちであるという。
The Occupiers are “a group of engaged progressives who are disillusioned with the capitalist system and have a distinct activis orientation,” ? all reasons that could make the administration’s support for the movement “catastrophic for their party,” he warns. この抗議行動参加者というのは「資本主義に幻滅した活動的な進歩派の政治行動にエンゲージした人たち」であり、そうした運動をオバマ政権 が支持することは「民主党にとって破滅的な誤り」であるという。、
The Obama administration has indicated an increasing willingness to sympathize with the Occupy Wall Street protesters in recent weeks.“I think it expresses the frustrations that the American people feel ? that we had the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression … yet you’re still seeing some of the same folks who acted irresponsibly trying to fight efforts to crack down on abusive practices that got us into this problem in the first place,” Obama said in a news conference earlier this month. “I think people are frustrated, and the protestors are giving voice to a more broad-based frustration about how our financial system works.” オバマ政権は「ウオール街を占拠せよ」運動に対する支持や共感を強めており、オバマ大統領は「その行動はアメリカ国民の感じるフラスト レーションの表明と思う」と述べた。「大恐慌以来の最大の金融危機があったが、いまだに一部の無責任な行動をする人たちがいて、危機を 引き起こした問題行動を規制する政権の努力に対して戦っている」「人々はフラストレートしていると思う。抗議行動者はわれわれの金融シス テムについての広範なフラストレーションをあらわしていると思う」
On Sunday, White House spokesman Josh Earnest embraced the protestors “99 percent” slogan, saying in a conference call with reporters that the president will make sure “the interests of the 99 percent of Americans are well represented” on his bus tour this week. As Schoen noted in the op-ed, some Democrats in Congress have also shown support for the demonstrators, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. 日曜日にホワイトハウスの広報官Josh Earnestは抗議行動の「我々は99%」のスローガンを賞賛し、大統領は「アメリカ国民の99%の意見を 代表するようにする」と述べた。 議会の民主党議員の一部にも抗議行動を支持する動きがあり、下院の民主党院内総務ナンシーペロシなどが それである。
According to Schoen, Obama risks repeating a mistake made in 1970, when “aligning too closely with the antiwar movement hurt Democrats in the midterm election.” Schoenに拠ればオバマ大統領は1970年の民主党の失敗を繰り返す恐れがある。それは「反戦運動にあまりに接近し過ぎて民主党が中間選挙に 敗退」した事例である。
The president has already made the serious mistake of abandoning independent and swing voters, Schoen said, by focusing solely on pleasing voters who support taxing oil companies and the rich. Rather than supporting “increasingly radical and potentially violent activists,” the pollster suggested that Democrats reach out to the country’s moderates. Schoenはオバマ大統領がすでに無党派層とスイング投票者を見捨てるという過ちを犯したという。富裕層や石油会社に増税することでそれを 支持する層にのみフォーカスしている。「ますますラディカルになっている潜在的に暴力的な活動家」ではなく国内の穏健派に焦点を合わせ るべきであるとする。
Put simply, Democrats need to say they are with voters in the middle who want cooperation, conciliation and lower taxes. And they should work particularly hard to contrast their rhetoric with the extremes advocated by the Occupy Wall Street crowd,” he said. 簡単に言えば民主党は中間層の有権者、政治に協力や調停を求め減税を求める有権者たちを必要としている。それゆえ「ウオール街を占拠せよ」運動の過激派のレトリックとは一線を画するよう強く努力すべきであるという。
Schoen was a pollster for former President Bill Clinton, as his tagline on the Journal’s op-ed piece notes, and identifies himself as a Democratic campaign consultant. But his clients have also included non-Democrats, such as New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg at a time when he was seeking office as a Republican. Schoenはクリントン大統領の世論調査(分析)専門家で寄稿した評論にも民主党の選挙コンサルタントというタイトルをつけている。ただし 彼の顧客には一時期共和党支持者であったブルームバーグNYC市長もいる。
(CNN) - President Barack Obama's job approval rating is holding steady, but a record high six out of ten Americans think his policies will fail, according to a new national survey. オバマ大統領の支持率は安定的であるが、CNN世論調査によれ場10人中6人の有権者はオバマ大統領の政策は失敗するとこたえていて史上最高。 支持率は36%、不支持率は50%
"Despite the high support for higher taxes on millionaires, it doesn't look like the public is ready for class warfare. Most Americans say they have a favorable view of people who make more than a million dollars a year," adds Holland. "One in five say they admire millionaires and only one in 20 feel resentful toward them." CNNの世論調査部長のHollandは「億万長者への増税について支持は高いが、国民は階級闘争のようなことは支持していないように見える。 ほとんどのアメリカ人は年収100万ドル以上の人に対して好意的な見方をしている。5人に一人はミリオネアを尊敬すると答えていて、 ミリオネアに憤慨している人は20人に一人に過ぎない」
In case you haven’t figured it out by now, what’s going on in Washington and across the country is the Full Alinsky, brought to you by the same malcontents who have been awaiting this moment for more than 40 years. It’s been a long time wandering in the desert for the Sixties Left, but this is their moment, this is their time, as somebody or other from Punahou once said.
“The Android stuff hasn’t done fantastically well,” the Dell CEO said at a technology conference in San Francisco. 「アンドロイドタブレットは素晴らしい売れ行きというわけではない」とSFCで語った “Right now, it’s an iPad market,” he said, referring to Apple’s popular tablet. That’s not good for Dell, which sells Android tablets. 「今はiPad の一人勝ちだ」 But the company’s lack of enthusiasm is clear: its marketing doesn’t often mention tablets. Dell said that could change with Microsoft’s Windows 8, which he said should help to fuel tablet sales with new features.“Microsoft has a good shot with Windows 8,” he said. しかし、MSがウインドウズ8を出せば、タブレットがサポートされ、様子が変わる鴨、とも。
ttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-rally-intensifies-on-europe-report-2011-10-18 NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks rose even more sharply Tuesday after Britian's Guardian newspaper reported France and Germany had reached agreement to bolster the euro-area's rescue fund. "The news out of Europe has taken the fear of a 2008-like financial crisis off the table, although certainly there are still lingering issues," said Jeff Kleintop, chief market strategist for LPL Financial. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +1.49% rose 195.45 points to 11,592.45. The S&P 500 Index SPX +1.78% climbed 26.47 points to 1,227.33. The Nasdaq Composite COMP +1.36% added 43.12 points to 2,658.08.
France and Germany have reached agreement to boost the eurozone's rescue fund to ?2tn (£1.75tn) as part of a "comprehensive plan" to resolve the sovereign debt crisis, which this weekend's summit should endorse, EU diplomats said. 独仏は救済ファンドを2兆ユーロの規模に拡大することで合意
The growing confidence that a deal can be struck at this Sunday's crisis summit came amid signs of market pressure on France following the warning by the ratings agency Moody's that it might review the country's coveted AAA rating because of the cost of bailing out its banks and other members of the eurozone. The leaders of France and Germany hope to agree a deal that will assuage market uncertainties or, worse, volatility, in the run-up to the G20 summit in Cannes early next month. 独仏は次回のG20に先立って市場への影響を考慮して合意に(後略)
The trigger for this afternoon’s jump in the euro and in risky assets is a Guardian story that Germany and France will agree on a bond-insurance plan that would increase the EFSF’s coverage to about 2 trillion euros. But at this weekend’s G20 meeting, this part of the euro solution was already virtually a done deal.
In fact, German insurer Allianz, the author of the plan, told us last week that European leaders and banks were warming to it. The problem is that eurozone leaders continue to be divided over Greece: How big a haircut, how to let it default without producing moral hazard for other peripheral countries? Those are real hurdles.
The Guardian does claim that France and Germany have “reached an agreement” but later in the story it reports that “technical details remain to be settled”. This may well be the case but it’s worth remembering that when it comes to the EFSF, everything that is political is also technical.
The DJA and S&P500 spiked on the news and the rally monkey was ready to start an emergency markets live session. But it looks like these gains are being reversed as traders realise that there may be less to the story than meets the eye. Not to fear, there’s another market-obsessed simian that comes to mind:(ry
All you can do is laugh now: もはやこれは笑い話の類 DJ: Report EFSF Firepower To Reach EUR2T “Totally Wrong”-Source ダウジョーンズはEFSFを2兆ユーロに増強との報道を「完全に誤り」と伝える There goes the rally, which was sparked by a Guardian story saying France and Germany had agreed to a 2 trillion-euro fund. ガーディアン報道で株式がラリーしたのだけれど・・ Update: Actually, the rally held up OK ? the market didn’t have much time to digest the DJ report that the “bailout fund size [is still being] debated,” citing an anonymous “eurozone source.” ダウジョーンズは「ユーロ圏のソース」をもとに「EFSFの増強のサイズについて依然検討中」と報道。尤も引けまでラリーは持続したけど。
ttp://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,792224,00.html Climate Change Negotiations:The Death of the Kyoto Process By Christian Schwagerl and Gerald Traufetter 10/18/2011 気候変動国際会議:京都プロトコルの死 By Christian Schwagerl and Gerald Traufetter シュピーゲル、ドイツ
There seems little possibility that next month's climate summit in Durban will produce an emissions reduction agreement -- meaning the world will soon lack any binding CO2 targets. Europe may soon find itself alone in the fight against global warming.
●Merkel's Optimism Has Faded ●Clean Energy as a 'Dirty Word' ●Trying to Buy Time ●Climate Policy at Its Low Point ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *気候変動についての考え方のあれこれはひとまずおくとして、欧州が時間とエネルギーをつぎ込んで長年取り組んできた国際的規制という のは実現しない。現実的に考えるなら、温暖化カルトや左翼お花畑を別にして、そういうグローバル規制が実現可能だと誰も思っていない。
これはFTの論説主観、マーチン・ウルフの書いているもの ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://jbpress.ismedia.jp/articles/-/26368 ユーロに明るい未来はない 2011.10.20(木) Financial Times By Martin Wolf(2011年10月19日付 英フィナンシャル・タイムズ紙)
The news that 175 people were arrested over the weekend in a Chicago OWS protest started me thinking about the ritualized nature of left demonstrations. The drums, the chants, the defiance, the arrests ? and, sometimes, the glass smashing and the fire setting: it all unfolds according to a predictable pattern that in its modern form is essentially unchanged since the Vietnam War. And it also made me wonder: what is the point?
There was a time long ago when political protest really mattered. The Vietnam protests didn’t end the war (and didn’t keep Nixon from carrying 49 states against George McGovern in 1972), but they helped end the draft. The civil rights movement led to some of the most profound social changes this country has ever seen. Before that, there were labor and suffragette marches, not to mention the mass rallies and torchlight parades that helped bring us the joys of Prohibition.
But these days the old style protests remind me of political conventions: empty and pointless (though noisy and publicized) rituals. In the old days, political conventions were where strong institutional parties met to select their nominees. It was usually not clear going in to a convention who the nominee would be, and sometimes they dragged on for up to one hundred plus ballots. They were newsworthy because they made news. でも、今の時代の古めかしい抗議行動は私から見て政治集団の決起集会のようなものに見え、空虚で意味の無い(とてもうるさくく喧伝される) 儀式のように見える。その昔の政党のコンベンションは候補者を選ぶものでニュース性のあるものであった。しかし今では政党のコンベンショ ンは単に演出された集会に過ぎず、時間の無駄である。かってはそれが重要であったので私たちは今でもそれを注目し、報道されるのだが、今 ではそれに興奮させられる事は無い。
The courage and quiet dignity of the civil rights protestors, and the hatred and brutality they brought out in their opponents, brought a moral reformation to the United States. Their tactics were directly related to their goal, and they demonstrated the truth of their cause by the way their dignified nonviolence clashed with ignorance, violence and hate.
そうした本物の抗議行動と、儀式としてのそれが区別されないのはメディアのせいである。そして抗議行動そのものがメディアに取り上げられ る事を第一にしている。メディアが報道すれば何か意味のあることが出来たとするのも誤解に過ぎないが The self evident futility of this cycle ? the media mistakes a pseudo-event for something real and covers it; protestors mistake media coverage for influence and step up the protests ? is one of the reasons that the whole concept of protest has become so debased. (後略)
For 2011, GM predicts U.S. light-vehicle sales will finish at around 12.7 million or 12.8 million, and for 2012, there won’t be much more: “As we go into ’12, we’re looking for kind of a repeat of ’11,” Akerson said. The pent-up demand will have to remain pent-up for a while.
Meanwhile in France, Carlos Ghosn said that “for 2012, we are all currently in a state of very great uncertainty for the time being.” Ghosn also fingered the debt crisis as a threat. Ghosn told Reuters that there “could be some grounds for optimism in 2012 if Europe managed to solve its sovereign debt crisis.” However, he does not see that happening anytime soon, because countries are not in agreement on the measures needed.(ry
Seoul, which fears the swelling crisis in Europe could undermine its export-dependent economy, traditionally views currency swaps as one its strongest psychological weapons for cooling fears about its banks’ ability to meet short-term foreign debt payments, seen as its Achilles’ heel in times of trouble.
Still, economists question the effectiveness of adding an extra $70bn of potential foreign currency firepower, when Korea already has reserves of $303bn, the world’s eighth biggest. It also has a $26bn swap with China. “The practical effectiveness of this when you already have $300bn of reserves is secondary,” said Tim Condon, Asia economist at ING.
“Speculators see the won as a one-way bet. The won may have been one of the worst global performers in September but it will probably be one of the best in October. They see a drop in the won as a buying opportunity,” he said.
Fred Siegel on Occupy Wall Street and the return of the McGovernites. ttp://www.tnr.com/article/politics/96415/occupy-wall-street-liberalism-socialism-tnr-1968-bureaucracy-mcgovern ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *タイトルから想像できるようにリベラル論客の中でも「ウオール街を占拠せよ」運動には支持者と反対者が入り混じっていて、リベラル 陣営の中の左派から穏健派までのスペクトラムはさまざまで一致しない。TNRの編集部の社説は先に紹介したように否定的で、リベラルと ラディカルは異なるのだという。興味深い。国内メディアはこれに比べて全く表面的皮相的で、そういう運動が進歩派勢力全体の意見であ るかのようなナンセンスな報道をしている。
(CNN) -- Seven months after the nuclear crisis began at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi plant, the U.S. government again warned its citizens Friday to avoid areas near the stricken reactors.
The U.S. State Department put out the travel alert -- which updates one issued about three months ago -- based on "additional data ... from Japanese authorities, allowing for a fuller assessment by U.S. government scientists." (後略)
>>626 WHOによるチェルノブイリ健康被害調査報告書(2006) ttp://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs303/en/index.html Reproductive and hereditary effects and children's health 生殖および遺伝への影響と子供の健康 Given the low radiation doses received by most people exposed to the Chernobyl accident, no effects on fertility, numbers of stillbirths, adverse pregnancy outcomes or delivery complications have been demonstrated nor are there expected to be any. A modest but steady increase in reported congenital malformations in both contaminated and uncontaminated areas of Belarus appears related to improved reporting and not to radiation exposure. チェルノブイリ事故に遭遇した多くの人間が浴びたような低い放射線量では、出生率・死産数・出生異常・出産合併症などは みられず、将来的にみられるという予測も成り立たなかった。先天性奇形ベラルーシの汚染地域・非汚染地域の両方で、 それほど多くはないものの確かに増加しているが、これはみたところ報告体制が改善したことによるものであり、被曝には 関係がないようだ。
Despite frosty relations with the titans of Wall Street, President Obama has still managed to raise far more money this year from the financial and banking sector than Mitt Romney or any other Republican presidential candidate, according to new fundraising data. ウオール街の巨大金融機関との関係が悪化しているにもかかわらず、オバマ大統領はこれらの金融機関から共和党のどの候補者よりも多くの献金を 得ている。 ・・・ One top banking executive who raises money for Obama, discussing fundraising efforts on the condition of anonymity, said reports of disaffection with the president “are exaggerated and overblown.” He said a strong contingent of financiers in New York, Chicago and California remains supportive of Obama and his economic policies, even as some have turned on him. オバマ大統領に献金している銀行の役員は匿名で、記者に対して、大統領への不満というのは誇張された行き過ぎがあるとした。ニューヨーク、 シカゴ、カリフォルニアの金融業界は依然オバマ支持であるという。
But, this donor added, “it probably helps from a political perspective if he’s not seen as a Wall Street guy.” Obama has raised a total of $15.6 million from employees in the industry, according to the Post analysis. Nearly $12 million of that went to the DNC, the analysis shows. この役員は「でも、大統領がウオール街側の人間と見られないほうが、政治的に都合が良いのだろう」という。金融業界からオバマへの献金は$15.6 millionで、DNC(民主党全国会議)を通じて$12 millionがわたっている。(後略) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *この記事はかなり詳しいものだけれど、省略。ゴールドマン・サックスなどとオバマの縁の深さは有名なのだけれど、そういうことを知らずに オバマのウオール街バッシングを絶賛しているような連中がいて、全くおQというのは世界各国に(ry
官民二大労組の連合組織は、19日に始まった48時間ゼネストを全国で継続。多数の組合員が市中心部を行進し、官公庁や公共交通機関な どに加え、個人商店などもゼネストに呼応して営業をやめ、アテネは都市機能が完全にまひし、混沌が支配していた。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.euronews.net/2011/10/19/mass-strike-and-demo-paralyses-athens/ The strike has closed tourist attractions, planes trains and boats, as well as banks, schools and even shops selling everyday basics like bread and milk.
ttp://www.focus-fen.net/index.php?id=n262160 Athens. More than 120,000 protesters marched in Greece on Wednesday, police said, in the biggest wave of demonstrations yet against government austerity measures gripping the country for nearly two years, AFP reports. The highest turnout was in Athens where some 70,000 people converged on central Syntagma Square, where parliament is located, while other large protests were held in Thessaloniki, Patras and Heraklion, police said.
SIRTE, Libya (AP) ? Libyan officials and NATO say they cannot confirm reports from revolutionary fighters that ousted Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi was captured or killed in the fall of his hometown Thursday. (リビア政府とNATOでは逮捕も死亡も未確認としている)
The Misrata Military Council, one of multiple command groups for revolutionary forces, says its fighters captured Gadhafi in Sirte. Another commander, Abdel-Basit Haroun, says Gadhafi was killed when an airstrike hit a convoy trying to flee. (ミスラタ軍事評議会がカダフィ逮捕を伝え、別の司令官は脱出の車列が空爆されて死亡したと話している) http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Libya-No-confirm-Gadhafi-captured-in-Sirte-fall-2227520.php
Significant differences remain on the three key items ? a second bail-out for Greece, recapitalising Europe’s banks and finding a mechanism to leverage the eurozone’s ?440bn rescue fund.
FTの伝えるトロイカのギリシャ報告書なるもの ttp://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2011/10/live-blog-eurozone-crisis/#axzz1bKMA0mEJ 13.08: Peter Spiegel, our Brussels bureau chief, has obtained a copy of the troika report. He reports that the second bail-out plan for Greece is considered “no longer adequate” by the country’s international lenders: (後略)
The Telegraph has done us all the service of posting online a leaked draft of the statement that will be released following this weekend’s EU summit. Unfortunately, it is mainly boilerplate with major details left to be filled in. 英国テレグラフがリーク報道 Meanwhile, Die Welt is reporting that Germany might be considering postponing the summit, which has knocked stocks lower at the open (though probably not low enough, considering). ドイツのヴェルトはドイツがサミット延期を検討と報道 The EU statement opens with a stirring statement of purpose, announcing that “today we agree on additional measures reflecting our strong determination to do whatever is required to overcome the present difficulties.” But the rest of the document is filled with bracketed placeholders ? “insert eurozone rescue plan here” ? that show just how much work needs to be done. ドラフトには肝心の部分が空白(未定)のまま残されている Here’s a sampling: 空白になっている条項 [pm strengthening of the monitoring of the Greek program] ギリシャプログラムの強化とモニタリング [p.m. increasing the efficiency of the EFSF- to be discussed by the Eurogroup] EFSFの拡大 [p.m.: full lending capacity of the ESM/ decision making procedures - to be discussed by the Eurogroup] EMS意思決定のプロセデュア One entire section, headlined “Banking system,” just reads like this: 3. Banking system 銀行システムについて [p.m. reinforcement of banking sector to be discussed by the Ecofin] 銀行セクターの強化策 I hope you’re hungry, because we’re all going to be eating a big disappointment sandwich on this one. The euro is barely lower this morning, at $1.374, while the Dow and S&P are flat. The Nasdaq is off about 15 points.
With an eye on 2012, here are ten important but sometimes counterintuitive facts to keep in mind: 勘違い(誤解)されることの多い事項で、大統領選挙について、心得ておくべき「事実」を10項目挙げておくと
1. There is no austerity. 財政緊縮というのはやっていない話 2. There was no deregulation. 規制緩和というのも、やっていない話 3. You can’t trust Republicans on spending. 政府首出の引き締めについて共和党が信用できるわけでもない 4. Wall Street loves Democrats. ウオール街は民主党支持である 5. People who voted for Barack Obama on civil-liberties grounds are fools. 市民権拡大を望んでオバマに投票するものはお馬鹿さん 6. If you aren’t for massive entitlement reform, you’re for massive tax hikes. 政府給付金制度の改革なければ増税あるのみ 7. But taxing the rich won’t close the deficit. 富裕層への増税だけでは財政赤字を解消できない 8. The housing bubble was largely a political creation. 住宅バブルというのは政治的要素が大いに影響を与えたもの 9. Well-meaning politicians are just as dangerous as self-serving ones. 善意の政治家というのは利己的政治家と同じくらい危険 10. There’s no way out of this jam without big cuts to popular programs. 財政の苦境を脱出するには人気の悪い大幅削減政策が必要
これは、ソシエテ・ジェネラルのストラテジストの中国経済悲観論 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/10/20/707751/china-hold-on-for-hard-landing/ Albert Edwards: Hold on for a hard landing in China Posted by Alastair Marsh on Oct 20 16:46. What are chances of a soft landing for the Chinese economy? Pretty slim if you ask uber bear Albert Edwards. ソシェテ・ジェネラルのAlbert Edwardsによれば、中国経済がソフトランディングできる可能性は大変低いと
We have previously highlighted the key role of rapid FX reserves growth in boosting inflation. This is evident even in a moribund deflationary economy such as Japan (see top right-hand chart). China, by tying itself to the US dollar, has effectively engaged in its own QE for years, printing whatever quantity of yuan is necessary to buy US dollars. FX intervention of this order of magnitude cannot be ‘sterilised’ and inevitably boosts domestic asset prices, activity and inflation. So, trying to slow property and CPI inflation using mainly quantitative credit restrictions while still keeping the printing press going is a bit like stopping the pressure cooker lid from blowing off by holding it down rather than switching off the gas.
The sudden cessation of FX reserve growth, which Edward’s calls China’s own version of QE, may well be “the last straw to break the panda’s back”. And if it is, the authorities should become “aggressively stimulative” with Yuan devaluation likely to be considered as one measure to prevent a hard landing.
The Sept. 12, 2009 Tea Party demonstration in Washington, D.C., is a perfect example of the way Tea Partiers do business. Organizers planned for 100,000 Tea Party activists to show up on the National Mall, but more than one million turned out. In spite of the huge group of people, there was never an ”angry mob” mentality. Protestors said ”excuse me” and ”thank you.” No one was arrested and no property was damaged. No one told us to, but we picked up every bit of trash, even if it was not ours. 2009年9月12日のワシントンDCでのティーパーティの行動では、計画した参加者は10万人、やってみるとボランティアが全国から参加して100万人。 それでも、怒りに満ちた暴徒とか、その手の参加者は皆無で逮捕者はなし。参加者はすべてのゴミを拾って持ち帰った。
But the biggest difference between the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street is that the Tea Party is bound by a common set of values based on freedom, responsibility and property rights. While the Tea Party members hold a diverse set of views on many issues, they are united in a desire for less government, lower taxes and more freedom. Conversely, the Occupy Wall Street protesters are unified only by their hatred of the wealthy, and seem to take pride in the movement’s inability to present a coherent set of proactive initiatives. Their attacks are disturbingly similar to those levied against the rich in Ayn Rand’s ”Atlas Shrugged,” where punishing the most productive members of society was more important than fixing the nation’s problems. OWSの参加者を統一するものは富への憎しみであるかのようで、社会の成功者や生産性の高い存在を罰することが重要と考えているようにみえる。 ティーパーティの要求は改善であり問題点の修正である。
The values that inform and shape Tea Party demonstrations also require the Tea Party to be consistent in applying its principles. We are willing to hold both Republicans and Democrats accountable, as well as bad actors and crony capitalists on Wall Street. We support capitalism based on hard work and wealth creation, not crony capitalism based on whom you know in Washington, D.C. That’s why we opposed the Wall Street bailout, handouts to GE and Solyndra, insurance companies writing individual mandates in ObamaCare, and Car Czars choosing winners and losers in the automobile industry. While Occupy Wall Street is making threats against people trying to earn a living and making a mess in New York and other cities, the Tea Party is working for real change at the source of the problem, Washington, D.C., by electing fiscal conservatives. Their answer is more government, but more government has been the problem all along. Our answer is less government and more freedom. But with individual freedom comes individual responsibility and respect for private property. These are the values that bind us as a community. That’s why freedom works. ティーパーティは共和党と民主党を、同じように扱い、其の問題を指摘し、改善を求める。OWSの究極はより大きな政府に行き着くがティーパーティ は小さな政府とより大きな個人の自由であり、後者は個人の責任と所有権の尊重を伴う。ティーパーティは現実的な変化・改善を起こすために、 財政保守派を選挙で選ぶための行動をしている。
ttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/20/mogadishu_on_the_mediterranean Mogadishu on the Mediterranean? Muammar al-Qaddafi is dead. Now comes the hard part -- preventing Libya from turning into another Somalia. BY CHRISTIAN CARYL | OCTOBER 20, 2011 リビアは地中海に面するソマリアのようになるのか? カダフィは死んだが、より困難な仕事がまっている。それはリビアを第二のソマリアにしないという仕事だ BY CHRISTIAN CARYL フォーリン・ポリシー
While fireworks light up the skies of Tripoli and Libyans dance in the street, a note of caution is now in order. Simply removing a dictator is not an automatic cure-all for a society long terrorized. Yes, toppling a tyrant can pave the way toward viable democracy; and there are many examples -- from Chile to the Philippines. カダフィの死亡の報に、トリポリでは花火が打ち上げられリビア人は街頭でダンスしているのだが、警告を発しておくべき時期と思える。独裁者の 死亡は必ずしも長きにわたってテロライズされてきた社会を癒すものとは限らない。無論、独裁者の打倒は民主主義に道を開くものであるが、民主 主義システムにもバラエティがあって、チリからフィリピンまで様々なのだ。
But there are also less inspiring ones. In 1991, the man who had ruled Somalia in brutal style for 22 years -- Mohammed Siad Barre -- fell from power. He died four years later in exile in Kenya, by then completely irrelevant to the fate of his country. Somalis took little consolation in his departure. The collapse of Barre's highly personalized tyranny gave way to a power vacuum that continues to this day. Long-suppressed rivalries of clan and tribe broke into the open and tore the place apart. もっと宜しからぬ例もあって、1991年にはソマリアを22年間に渡って暴力的に支配してきたMohammed Siad Barre が権力の座を追われ4年後に亡命先 のケニアで死亡した。ソマリアは独裁者の専制支配体制の崩壊で権力の真空状態が発生し、それは今日に至るまで続いている。長きにわたって抑え つけられてきた地方部族の競合が解放され、それが国内を分裂させる。
Mogadishu is a good distance from Tripoli, of course. But that hasn't stopped some people from worrying about possible parallels. "One of our biggest concerns is Libya descending into chaos and becoming a giant Somalia," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee back in early March -- a note struck by Director of National Intelligence James Clapper in his own Capitol Hill testimony a few days later, when he worried aloud about a "Somalia-like situation" ensuing in place of Qaddafi's rule. モガデシオはトリポリから距離を置いていて同じというわけではないが、それでも一部の人はリビアの事態とソマリアのそれの並行性を憂慮すること をやめられない。クリントン国務長官は上院外交委員会で、この3月にリビアについて語って「大きな関心のひとつはリビアがカオスに沈んでゆき、 巨大なソマリアになりはしないかということだ」諜報局長官のJames Clapperは其の数日後に同じ憂慮を表明している。
Nothing is predestined. No scenario is inevitable. There's no question that Qaddafi's demise opens up countless opportunities for Libyans to proceed along the path of determining their own future. But openness also brings risks. Qaddafi's son, Saif al-Islam, once warned Europe that Libya would turn into a Somalia on the Mediterranean if European forces didn't come to the regime's aid. That hasn't happened yet, but it still could. カダフィの息子のSaif al-Islamはかってヨーロッパに警告して、ヨーロッパ諸国が政権を支援しないならリビアがは地中海に面するソマリアになる と述べた。それはまだ起こっていないが、でもその可能性が消えたとは言えない。
リベラル・オピニオン誌、TNRのやっているシリーズ「ウオール街を占拠せよ(OWS)とリベラリズム」の論評から -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.tnr.com/article/politics/96498/occupy-wall-street-liberalism-obama-2012-democrats Democrats Beware! Occupy Wall Street Could Sink Obama’s Re-Election Franklin FoerOctober 21, 2011 | 12:00 民主党員は注意せよ! 「ウオール街を占拠せよ」運動はオバマの再選を妨げるものになり得る by Franklin FoerOctober 21日、TNR
Protests movements, with their outpourings of camaraderie and idealism, often lead to lyrical writing and wishful thinking. Some Democratic politicians and think tanks apparently now see a scenario for salvation in Zuccotti Park?a possibility that the protests could morph into the Democratic answer to the Tea Party. Perhaps Washington operatives could descend on the movement and drive it in that direction. But that seems like an awfully daunting task, given the scene on the ground and the ideological tendencies of Occupy Wall Street?and it misreads the symbiotic relationship between liberals and the left. Let’s say Occupy Wall Street can overcome its self-limiting strategic philosophy, develop some concrete goals, and blossom into a full-fledged social movement. Over the long-term, then, liberals will want to position their reforms as the most reasonable mechanism for staving off the radicals. That’s how FDR played it?“Liberalism becomes the protection for the far-sighted conservative.” But you can’t triangulate against a social movement if you fully embrace it.
There is, however, another, plausible possibility: that Occupy Wall Street is poorly timed. After all, there’s no legislative debate to usefully prod at the present juncture, but there’s a chance to scupper the president’s re-election. As John Nichols cheers in The Nation, the “movement might well develop into a virtual primary challenge to Obama.” Even if Obama attempts to co-opt the message of Occupy Wall Street, the movement will likely continue to harp on his inadequacy. (Many of the complaints with Obama unfairly view him as a central villain in the crisis, rather than a disappointingly ineffectual foe of it.) Protests might erupt at the convention in Charlotte that overshadow his case for reelection; all this further diminishes enthusiasm for his candidacy. Or worse, a third-party candidate emerges and we know how that story goes. Indeed, much of the gripe with Obama reflects the canard that a Republican president wouldn’t be worse. I hope the protesters are surrounded by allies who remind them it actually can get much worse.
19.12: The Eurogroup statement says that the IMF board still has to agree its part of the loan tranche to Greece ? its share is about ?2.2bn ? but that should be a formality considering IMF managing director Christine Lagarde was at the Brussels meeting. ギリシャ向けIMFの融資部分、22億ユーロはまだ承認されていないがブラッセル会議で承認みこみ
19.07: Chris Adams, the FT markets editor, tweets: Next E8bn euro payment to Greece expected to be made in first half of November -Eurogrpoup statement EUのギリシャ向け融資、11月初旬に80億ユーロ
18.51: Eurozone finance ministers meeting in Brussels have approved their ?5.8bn part of the ?8bn loan tranche to Greece under last year’s bail-out, the FT has confirmed. EUのギリシャ向け融資58億ユーロが欧州財務相会議で承認
Whatever the government does, electricity prices must rise in the years ahead, but extravagant green policies make matters worse. Ministers refuse to admit, perhaps even to themselves, the inadequacy of their approach. Unless urgent action is taken, especially on building new nuclear plants, power cuts will loom in the next decade. Meanwhile, green posturing drives up industrial costs in a fashion that destroys jobs and hurts the economy.
In truth, says Mr Constable, China will almost certainly dominate renewables technology manufacturing. Estimates for new British jobs created ignore the much graver employment losses that the cost of “clean energy” inflicts on other industries. Between 2002 and 2010, subsidies to Britain’s wind manufacturers cost £200,000 a job, and in 2009-10 still amounted to £57,000. If the government maintains present levels of state aid, in the next decade renewables will receive £39bn from taxpayers to generate modest supplies of electricity. 風力発電や太陽光パネルの製造では中国がそれを独占するであろうことは確かであり、英国政府の風力発電設備の製造企業経の政府支援は、 わずかばかりの自然エネルギー発電についての、多額の税金のムダ使いになるであろう。
But Britain’s next nuclear generation is stalled, because the government insists that plants should be built without subsidy ? this, when windmills rotate on sheaves of taxpayers’ cash. Almost every other nation subsidises nuclear construction. It is not surprising this is necessary, when each plant costs an estimated £5bn. 政府は新規の原子力発電建設に資金の支援をしないというが、それはナンセンスで、多くの国と同じく風力発電では無く原子力発電を支援 すべきだ。
Downing Street needs to recognise the extreme urgency of building nuclear plants, for which subsidy will be essential. Ministers must come clean about how wretchedly little they have done, and how much needs to be done, to avert a 2020s energy crisis. Environmentalism is a priority in the new world ? but so is keeping Britain’s lights on. (The writer is an FT contributing editor)
PRINCETON, NJ -- President Barack Obama's 11th quarter in office was the worst of his administration, based on his quarterly average job approval ratings. His 41% approval average is down six percentage points from his 10th quarter in office, and is nearly four points below his previous low of 45% during his seventh quarter. 大統領就任後11クオーターの現時点で、支持率は低下を続け、41%となった。
President Obama's most recent quarter in office was his worst to date, and these lower levels of public support could put his re-election chances in peril unless things start to improve in the next few months. Currently, voters say they are more likely to vote for "the Republican candidate" than for Obama for president in 2012, though Obama has generally looked stronger when matched against actual Republican candidates like Mitt Romney or Rick Perry.
FTの記事では、欧州財務相会議(+IMF、ECB)の報告書で60%ヘアカットを「検討した」と書いているけれど「決定した」としていない。 このヘアカットの分量について、IMFとECBが対立しているからだという ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/66bdcbc0-fc11-11e0-b1d8-00144feab49a.html#axzz1bS01pIFt EU looks at 60% haircuts for Greek debt By Peter Spiegel in Brussels Last updated: October 21, 2011 8:03 pm EUはギリシャ債務の60%削減を検討 By Peter Spiegel FT、21日
The study determined that in order to bring a second Greek bail-out back to the ?109bn agreed in July, bondholders would have to take a 60 per cent loss on their current holding. That is significantly more than the 21 per cent haircut agreed in a deal with private investors three months ago. The analysis says that a 50 per cent haircut, increasingly considered the most likely scenario among European policymakers, would put the second Greek bail-out at ?114bn, or ?5bn more than the July deal. “Recent developments call for a reassessment,” the report said. “The situation in Greece has taken a turn for the worse.” ブリュッセルで21日開かれたユーロ圏財務相会合ではギリシャの経済状況が以前のアセスメントより悪化したことを挙げて、7月に合意した 債務の60%(1090億ユーロ)のヘアカットの必要性を検討した。これは3ヶ月前に民間債権者が合意した内容に追加の21%の削減を求めるも ので、欧州の多くの政策立案者のシナリオとしてきた50%ヘアカットでは1140億ユーロ分の債務の救済となる ・・・ European officials said the delay was due, in part, because of a disagreement between the IMF and the ECB over whether Greece could meet its debt obligations without significant writedowns. The IMF argued that Greek bondholders needed to take larger hits, while the ECB has repeatedly warned that such defaults could spread market panic. In a clear reference to that dispute, a footnote said the ECB “does not agree with the inclusion” of the report’s haircut scenarios. In order to deal with the possible market panic from such large haircuts, eurozone leaders have agreed to increase the firepower of its ?440bn rescue fund. EUの官僚に依れば意思決定の遅れている一部の理由はIMFとECBの意見の相違で、ギリシャが大幅な償却なしに債務を果たすことが出来るかという 点にある。IMFはギリシャ債券の保有者は大きな負担を負う必要があるとし、一方ECBはそうした事は市場にパニックを呼ぶとこれまで何度も主張 してきた。報告書の脚注でECBは報告書の述べたヘアカット・シナリオに同意していないと明記している。大きなヘアカットが市場にパニックを呼 ぶ事を防ぐために欧州指導者らはEFSFの4400億ユーロの救済ファンドを増強することで合意した。(後略)
ECBとIMFの意見対立に加えて、ドイツとフランスがEFSFのあり方をめぐって意見対立しているという。マーケットウオッチ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/leverage-debate-undercuts-euro-summit-2011-10-20 France is said to prefer a plan that would see the EFSF granted a banking license, allowing it to access collateralized funding from the European Central Bank. That would see future bond-buying efforts effectively funded by expanding the ECB’s balance sheet. Such a move is fiercely opposed by German officials, as well as outgoing ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet and EFSF head Klaus Regling. Germany is seen favoring a plan that would turn the EFSF into an insurer, covering 20% to 30% of private investors’ losses on euro-zone government bond holdings, a move that could see the fund’s firepower, now capped at 440 billion euros ($607.6 billion) effectively leveraged to around ?1 trillion or more. フランスはEFSFに銀行の免許を与えECBの資金を担保にしたレバレッジをもたせる案を好む。ECBのバランスシートを拡大することで EFSFの債券購入の能力が向上するという。ドイツはこれに反対していて、ECBのJean-Claude Trichet総裁やEFSFのKlaus Reglingも 反対している。ドイツはEFSFを保険会社にして民間債券保有者の損失の20−30%を保証するようにするというアイデアを好んでいる。 EFSFの4400億ユーロをレバレッジして実効的に1兆ユーロ以上にできるとしている。