Liu Xiaobo, a Chinese dissident and writer serving an 11-year jail sentence, has won the Nobel Peace Prize in a piercing criticism of the Chinese political system. The decision to award Mr Liu the prize will be a huge embarrassment to Beijing which conducted intense behind-the -scenes lobbying against Mr Liu’s candidacy. 劉暁波のノーベル平和賞受賞は中国政府にとって、大変大きな困惑となるであろう。中国政府は、ノーベル賞受賞を 妨害する熱心な工作を密かに続けてきた。
By bestowing the prize on Mr Liu, the Nobel committee has reinvigorated the clash of ideas between the human rights and democracy agenda promoted by most developed countries and China’s authoritarian model, which has produced rapid and sustained economic growth. ノーベル平和賞選定委員会は人権や民主主義といった思想と中国の権威主義的なモデルとの衝突というテーマを 再活性化させたと言える。 (中略)
Mr Liu is the first Chinese citizen to be awarded a Nobel prize, though several overseas ethnic Chinese scientists and exiled writer Gao Xingjian have won the prize. The Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan leader, won the Peace Prize in 1989. これまで海外で活動する中国人やダライラマのノーベル賞受賞はあるものの、劉暁波氏は中国大陸人として最初のノーベ ル賞受賞者となった。
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. labor market shed more jobs than expected in September, as state and local governments shed workers during the month. The Labor Department said Friday that total nonfarm payrolls shrank by 95,000 in September, higher than the 8,000 loss expected by Wall Street economists. Private-sector nonfarm employment expanded by 65,000 in September, lower than the 85,000 gain expected. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.6%. Economists forecast the unemployment rate to rise to 9.7%. Average hourly earnings were flat at $22.67, below the 0.2% rise economists anticipated. Earnings are up 1.7% in the past year. August and July payrolls were revised lower by a cumulative 15,000 jobs.
that competitive devaluation in the 1930s was actually quite helpful.
But I don’t think this argument really works ? at least not as phrased.
Why? In the 1930s, competitive devaluation mattered largely because a number of countries were still on the gold standard, and were keeping interest rates well above the zero lower bound in an attempt to preserve their gold reserves. Devaluation relaxed this constraint by making the gold worth more in domestic currency, and hence was expansionary.
Today there’s nothing like that, and rates are pretty much at zero. And in that case, it’s hard to see what mutual intervention accomplishes. Suppose the Fed buys a bunch of euros, and the ECB a bunch of dollars. Suppose also that they do the usual thing and hold the newly acquired reserves in short-term debt ? Treasury bills. Then the net effect is just as if each central bank had done a conventional open-market operation in its own T-bills.
And the whole point of the liquidity trap literature is that such conventional open-market operations have no effect ? they just swap one zero-rate asset, monetary base, for another, short-term government debt. So the currency interventions accomplish nothing.
It would be different if the central banks acquired long-term assets instead; then we’re talking about quantitative easing through the back door. But I see no reason to believe that central banks reluctant to buy domestic long-term debt will be more willing to buy foreign long-term debt.
So a wave of mutual currency purchases would be harmless but also pointless.
As long rumored, Jim Jones will be leaving this month as Barack Obama's national security advisor. This was never a snug fit; Jones complained that he had less access to and sway over Obama than some more junior staffers, notably NSC chief of staff Denis McDonough, one of the most quietly influential figures in the White House, and Jones was rewarded with plenty of sniping from unnamed rivals around him. While Jones seems to have outmaneuvered at least one of his alleged detractors, he never emerged as the strong figure many people expected the former top NATO commander to be.
-- Grain and oilseed prices rose the most allowed by the Chicago Board of Trade after the U.S. government said doemstic and world supplies of corn, soybeans and wheat will be smaller than forecast last month. The U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its domestic corn- crop estimate for the second time in as many months, predicting a 3.4 percent drop from last year. While farmers will collect the most soybeans ever, the total will be 2.2 percent less than forecast in September, the USDA said. Global wheat inventories will be 1.8 percent less than projected last month. 米国農務省は国内のコーンの供給見通しを引き下げ、前年比−3.4%とした。大豆については−2.2%。小麦の 世界の供給は−1.8%。
“Although the trade had increasingly braced for a downward revision in corn yields, the USDA provided a far larger- than- expected shock,” Lewis Hagedorn, a commodity analyst for JPMorgan Chase & Co., said in a report. “Meaningfully higher prices are now required in order to ration demand,” specifically for corn used to make ethanol, Hagedorn said. 農務省の発表は予想以上に減少幅が大きいとして、JPモーガンのアナリストは価格上昇は当然と見ている(後略)
General Jones’s departure had been long rumored, and he had previously indicated to his staff that he intended to leave by the end of the year. But the schedule was accelerated, and in recent weeks White House staff members had been increasingly critical of General Jones for statements that he apparently made to Bob Woodward, the author of “Obama’s Wars,” an account of the internal decision making on policy on Afghanistan and Pakistan.
In the Afghanistan-Pakistan review, he argued that the United States could not engage in what he termed “endless war,” and has strongly defended Mr. Obama’s decision to withdraw American troops from Afghanistan next summer.
Oct 8 (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama called on China on Friday to release imprisoned Nobel Peace laureate Liu Xiaobo as soon as possible. "Over the last 30 years, China has made dramatic progress in economic reform and improving the lives of its people, lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty," Obama, last year's Nobel peace laureate, said in a statement. "But this award reminds us that political reform has not kept pace, and that the basic human rights of every man, woman and child must be respected," he said.
ハベル前大統領のステートメント: ttp://www.ceskenoviny.cz/news/zpravy/czech-politicians-welcome-nobel-peace-prize-for-liu-xiaobo/539409 In his statement for CTK today he appreciated "the birth of Charter 08 and also all its signatories and their families. The Norway-based Nobel Committee deserves recognition as well for not allowing itself to be deterred by China´s warning and not putting the economic interests above human rights," Havel wrote.
By 47 to 45 percent, Americans say Obama is a better president than George W. Bush. But that two point margin is down from a 23 point advantage one year ago. 現在のところ、47%:45%で、オバマの方が良いという結果。しかし、一年前は23%の差でオバマ大統領が支持されて いたのだが、今では、リードは2%にまで縮まった(ry
Bottom Line 結論 Gallup's first sketch of what the electorate may look like on Nov. 2 indicates that the enthusiasm gap favoring Republicans all year -- as well as the "thought" gap evident in a late August survey -- may well translate into highly disproportionate turnout among Republicans and conservatives on Election Day. That is a key reason Gallup's latest polling finds Republican candidates leading Democrats by 13- and 18-point margins, depending on turnout, in two estimates of the vote. Another is that political independents are aligning themselves with the Republican Party to a degree unprecedented in recent history.
(ブルームバーグの記事↓) ttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-10-08/china-scraps-summit-briefing-over-media-entry-eu-official-says.html Four accredited Chinese journalists initially were barred from the planned press conference, according to Lixin Yang, a Brussels-based journalist for New York-based Epoch Times, who was among those due to be kept out. “They just said it was security,” he said today. The other three were Wen Luo and Xinhua Sun, both with New York-based NTDTV, and Xiaoyan Song, from Sound of Hope, Yang said.
The transportation network through the Karakoram mountain range is particularly noteworthy. Notably, the corridor provides Chinese access to Pakistan that can be extended in the future to provide connectivity to the Indian Ocean and to the energy rich Persian Gulf, particularly Iran. Furthermore, the modernization of the regional transit infrastructure will be conducive to stronger connectivity between South Asia and the Central Asian Republics, yet at the same time it will expose China’s borders to the region’s growing security challenges.
What are the implications and significance Liu Xiaobo's Nobel Peace Prize on the efforts to bring democracy and greater human rights in China? Rebecca Blumenstein, the Wall Street Journal's International Editor, and John Bussey, the Journal's Washington Bureau Chief, discuss the prize and its winner with Adam Najberg, Senior Editor for Video.
WSJのレビュー&アウトルック(常設コラム、社説に準ずる)は、ノーベル平和賞選定委員会(ノルウェイ政府)にむけ 中国政府が様々に圧力をかけてきた事を論じている。中国は強大化した経済力や軍事力で他国の反対を抑えこみ 押し切ることができると近年では思っているようだが、そういう誤った政策にノルウェイも、EUも同意しないと書いてい る。更に、中長期的に、中国国内への、この事件の影響は少なからぬものがあるだろう、と。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The response from Oslo to this bullying is an example to the world. "China's new status must entail increased responsibility," the Committee noted in its statement. "China is in breach of several international agreements to which it is a signatory, as well as of its own provisions concerning political rights."
We wish the Obama Administration were as steadfast. In the last 18 months, Washington has capitulated to China on the issue of human rights in a way never seen since the establishment of diplomatic relations with the People's Republic. This has only raised Beijing's expectations that its rising economic and military clout means it can treat its critics, foreign and domestic, with contempt. The Nobel Committee is right that human rights "are a prerequisite for the 'fraternity between nations' of which Alfred Nobel wrote in his will."
Yesterday, President Obama called Mr. Liu "an eloquent and courageous spokesman for the advance of universal values," and he called on the Chinese government to release him "as soon as possible." Let's hope he doesn't let the matter drop.
But the more significant consequences will unfold within China itself. The prize will dramatically increase awareness of Charter 08, the manifesto for political reform that Mr. Liu endorsed and promoted. In the last two years, the petition has continued to garner thousands of signatures from Chinese citizens. In 1930, a young revolutionary named Mao Zedong noted that "A single spark can start a prairie fire." Now it is Mao's Communist Party that has reason to be afraid of that spark.
ホワイトハウス、NSCの安全保障担当・大統領アドバイザーのジェームス・ジョーンズの退任で、新たに、その席に つくのはThomas Donilon. この人について、国内では報道が殆ど無いように見えるけれど、下記の記事のように ゲーツ国防長官が「軍事を理解していない」として酷評したという記事が。オバマ政権のNSCはいずれにせよ問題が 多いので、いろいろな意味で不安・・・ ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/10/08/gates_called_donilon_a_disaster.html Gates Called Donilon a "Disaster" October 08, 2010 Bob Woodward not only helped speed the exit of current National Security Adviser Jim Jones, his new book also sheds light on what Secretary of Defense Robert Gates thinks of Jones's replacement, Thomas Donilon.
From Obama's Wars, page 343: "The Pentagon also had concerns about Donilon. When criticism of Jones had reached a high-water mark the previous year, Gates had decided to publicly embrace him... Gates did this in part, he told an aide, because he did not think Donilon would work out as Jones's successor. Gates felt that Donilon did not understand the military or treat its senior leadership with sufficient respect. The secretary later told Jones that Donilon would be a 'disaster' as Obama's national security adviser."
However, Fox News reports Gates stood by Donilon after the announcement, saying he had a "very good working relationship with Tom Donilon contrary to what you may have read."
Teng Biao has identified at least 8 Chinese netizens who have been taken away by police in Beijing’s Dongcheng: Wang Lihong and Tiantian were just taken away by the Dongcheng district police to Jinshan police station. “A dozen of them cursed and kicked them away”. Ah Er, Xiaolu, and The Butcher have been taken to Heping police station. Xu Zhiyong, He Yang, @pengmomo and others were all taken away by police. The dinner party hasn’t even begun and they’ve already been arrested. Please pay attention to this. Twitterers who has been taken to police station for celebrating the Peace Award result are @wlh8964 @pengmomo @leewua @heyang519 @zhiyongxu @tufuwugan @xiaolu8964 @renjiaqi and etc. Please pay attention.
Republican challengers are suddenly threatening once-safe Democrats in New England and the Northwest, 民主党の安全な牙城であったニューイングランド地方や北西部が、突然のことに共和党の挑戦者たちによって 脅威にさらされている。
Republican advances in traditionally Democratic states, including Connecticut, Oregon and Washington, may not translate into a wave of GOP victories. But they have rattled local campaigns and forced the Democrats to shift attention and money to races they didn't expect to be defending. 伝統的に民主党の地盤であったような、コネチカット州、オレゴン州、ワシントン州は共和党の攻勢の前に屈服しな いかもしれないが、それらの地方ではローカルな保守派のキャンペーンに揺り動かされていて、民主党は選挙資金 を、かっては防衛の必要ではなかったところに回さざるをえない。
Rising sentiment against the party in power has washed ashore even in coastal Oregon, where Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio won his 10th re-election two years ago with 82% of the vote. 与党への反対勢力が盛り上がってきて、それ、沿岸部のオレゴン州のような民主党のPeter DeFazio議員が10回目の 当選を82%で獲得するようなところでさえそうである(中略) Democrats are buying advertising in places they hadn't previously reserved it, a strong indication the battlefield is expanding. That includes New England, which hasn't a single Republican House member. A new ad by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began airing this week in the Massachusetts district covering Cape Cod, where Democratic Rep. Bill Delahunt is retiring and ex-police sergeant Jeff Perry is posting a strong GOP challenge. 民主党は従来選挙TVCMを打たなかったようなところにもキャンペーンを始めていて、接戦区が増えていることを示して いる。それらは、ニューイングランド(この地域では現在一人も共和党下院議員がいない)を含む。DCCCはマサチューセッ ツ州のケープコッドで始めたキャンペーンはベテランのBill Delahunt議員の引退に伴い民主党候補が共和党候補の挑戦 に直面しているためである。(以下のコネチカット、ノースウェスト、ワシントンなどの情勢分析があるけれど省略) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *伝統的にディープ・ブルー(強い民主党傾向)の州に、突然共和党の挑戦者が現れて健闘を示し、民主党は驚き慌てて、 防御策に走る、という図式。
グッドバイ、ジェームズ・ジョーンズ(前NSC、国家安全保障担当・大統領アドバイザー) フォーリン・ポリシー 更迭は良策であって、彼は過去数十年間の、最悪の国家安全保障担当アドバイザーであった BY DAVID J. ROTHKOPF
The president's inexperience did in Jones more than any of the general's deficits. He didn't know what he wanted. He vacillated on key issues. He simply demonstrated the problems America repeatedly has when it hires men with no foreign-policy background to take on the most important international job in the world. Further, he did not really know enough about how the presidency works to nip in the bud the creation of the inner-circle bubble that effectively negated much of the work that the formal policy process did. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *ジェームズジョーンズとオバマ政権のNSCに疑問を感じてきた人は多そうに見える。彼の更迭で事態が改善するのかは ディベータブルであって(ry
Until recently, Chevrolet said the Volt should be able to stay in all-electric mode for the first 40 miles of travel ? a range that covers most of the trips the typical driver makes in the course of a day. Now those figures have been revised to a 25- to 50-mile all-electric range, depending on driving conditions and driver behavior. Once the battery runs down, the generator kicks in to send juice to the drive train, extending the car's range for another 300 miles
The Volt has a pretty steep sticker price ? $41,000. Federal tax credits of up to $7,500 could ease the sting of that sticker shock, but because of the electric-plus-gasoline arrangement, the Volt won't be eligible for as many perks as the $32,780 all-electric Nissan Leaf will get. In July, one commentator slammed the Volt as "GM's Electric Lemon," citing its high cost and other factors ranging from leg room to its requirement for premium fuel. So how will the Volt fare in the marketplace? ボルトの予定価格は41000ドルで、高価であり連邦政府の税金控除が7500ドルまで可能である。日産リーフが32780ドル であることに比較して、GMのボルトへの批判がある(後略)
Visitors at the Nobel Peace Centre in Oslo look at a portrait of this years Nobel Peace Prize laureate, Liu Xiaobo .REUTERS/Sara Johannessen/Scanpix 見学者はノルウェーオスロで今年のノーベル平和賞の獲得者の劉暁波の写真を見ています(09/10/2010)
The refusal of China's leaders to subject themselves to law at home reinforces suspicions that it will not play by the rules abroad, either -- not in trade, or finance, or respect for other nations' sovereignty. China's embrace of democracy wouldn't guarantee peace with democratic neighbors such as South Korea and Japan, but it would make peaceful settlement of disputes more likely. A democratic China would be less likely to send North Korean refugees back to likely execution in their homeland, in violation of international treaties. A regime confident in its legitimacy would be less likely to whip up nationalist fervor against Japan or the United States to distract from its own failings. And a democracy could not turn such fervor on and off at will through total control of its media.
・・・ not just Mr. Liu, but 8,000 brave Chinese who put their signatures below his on Charter 08. Most of them will never become famous. Most will never win an award. Yet they risk all because they want to live in freedom or make it more likely that their children will do so. Mr. Liu's prize is their prize, too. 劉暁波一人に留まらず、8000人の勇敢な中国人が「08民主化マニフェスト」に署名している。彼らの殆は無名であり、平和 賞を授与されることもないが、それでも彼らはリスクを犯して署名し、彼らと彼らの子供たちが自由な世界に生きる事を望 むと意思表示した。劉暁波への平和賞の授与は、彼らへの授与でもある。
Here in Guangzhou, where we have access to nearby Hong Kong cable television, more than 20 minutes of a 30-minute news broadcast were blocked last night by “public service announcements.” In a quite appropriate metaphor for this politically sensitive moment, viewers were reminded of the importance of washing their hands! 広東では香港のケーブルTVのニュースが(ノーベル平和賞のニュースのために)、その30分中20分にわたって 「公共のお知らせ」に切り変えられて、視聴者は手を洗うことの大切さについて勉強した。 ・・・ Yet even amongst those who did not know of Liu before Friday, there is implicit recognition that Liu’s story is far more complex than that ? the international recognition of Liu, combined with the stark contrast of domestic silence, does not reveal a gap between China and the outside world so much as a gap between state narratives and reality. そういうわけで、劉暁波が何者なのかをこれまで知らなかった人も、彼の話には何か複雑な事情があるとインプリシットに 理解したわけで、彼の業績の国際的評価は、中国国内の沈黙との鮮やかなコントラストをなす。それは中国国内と外の 世界とのギャップを明らかにするだけではなく、中国国家のナラティブと現実とのコントラストを示唆する。
This is why the CCP’s media juggernaut, usually obsessed with the Nobel Prize, came to a sudden halt yesterday evening. One can only hope that the Chinese people will use the tools available to them, tools which Liu has used over the past decade to spread his message, to overcome the state-induced puzzlement of the past 48 hours, and decide for themselves who is truly “anti-China.” それこそが中国共産党のノーベル平和賞に対する評価が突然停止した理由である。望むらくは劉暁波が過去10年余に わたって、彼のメッセージを、政府の圧迫に対抗して、彼が使える道具(=ネット)を使って広めてきたように、中国の民衆 がその道具(=ネット)を使って、政府の洗脳を克服し、彼らにとって誰が真の「反中国」なのかを判断することである。 ttp://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2010/10/10/2003484990/3
WASHINGTON? The International Monetary Fund's annual meeting this weekend failed to ease currency battles roiling markets, pushing the dispute off to a summit next month of leaders of Group of 20 countries, with no clear resolution in sight. IMF総会では通貨問題可決の手がかりは得られず、この問題は来月のG20に持ち越される
The meeting Saturday might have been more significant for possible solutions ruled out. Chinese central bank officials rejected calls for an international or regional currency accord, and the World Trade Organization's chief said his institution didn't want to get involved in exchange-rate fights. 中国の中央銀行は国際的な、あるいはアジア地域での通貨協定というアイデアを拒否し、WTOは通貨問題に立ち入ること を拒否したためIMF総会での通貨問題解決への手がかりは得られなかった(後略)
What is killing the Democrats this fall isn’t the midterm blues. It isn’t the bad economy. It is something much deeper, and I don’t see it changing anytime soon. 民主党を絶不調に貶めているのは中間選挙のサイクルの波動でもなく、経済の不調でもない。原因はより深いところにある。 ・・・ Unfortunately for Democrats, the policies needed to support the emergence of an entrepreneurial, small-business -fueled society are almost the opposite of the classical policies that 20th-century Democratic ideology supports. 民主党にとって不幸なことには、その20世紀風の古典的な政治イデオロギーと、起業家的な少企業の勃興を促すような政 策は対立関係にある。 ・・・ The grand strategy of Democratic policy in the 20th century was to use the confluence of interests between big established business and organized labor to set up a nationally regulated marketplace that served major interests of both groups. (I’ve posted about this earlier in a series of posts on the “Blue Social Model.”) That strategy for all its shortcomings arguably once served the national interest better than any conceivable alternative. Now, it’s a recipe for economic disaster in the long run, and for electoral failure next month. 20世紀の民主党の政策の原則はエスタブリッシュされた大企業と労組とが国の規制する市場を構成し、両者の利益の 妥協一致を図るというものだが(私は以前に、此れをブルー社会モデルと呼んで評論した)かっては国益に寄与したこの 戦略は、今では長期的な経済的破滅へのレシピであり、次期中間選挙の政治的失敗の原因である。
A viable national economic strategy today would have three component parts: long term measures to reduce the costs and overhead of small business by making government and the legal system cheaper and less intrusive; efforts to transform the marketplace for services like health care, education and others now provided largely by government into the private sector so that entrepreneurs can build new kinds of business while reducing the social cost of these vital and necessary services; and a way to provide the country with an affordable infrastructure that allows small business to flourish and enjoy the benefits of a national market at a low cost. 今日の有効な経済戦略というのは三つの要素を必要とする。(1)政府や司法システムをより安価に(コストの少ないものに) し、またより干渉を減らすことで、少企業のコストやオーバーヘッドを減らすこと。(2)医療や教育その他のようなサービス・ セクターの市場を政府管掌のものから民営化することにより、起業家がこれらサービス産業でのより安価なビジネスを開発 出来るようにすること。(3)適切な費用でインフラストラクチャーを準備して少企業がその恩恵を受け国内市場が花開くように 仕向けること。
Making these strategies work requires effective and intelligent governance, and the provision of infrastructure at least is something that meshes with traditional Democratic concerns and ideals. But a party dominated by public sector unions is going to have a hard time shifting over to the kind of ideas that can command majority support in the 21st century. Almost all the changes Democrats need to make involve policies that the teachers’ unions, civil service unions, and the professional guilds (like lawyers and academics) hate. こうした戦略を実現するには効果的で知的な政府が必要である。現在の公労組に独占された民主党は、こうしたアイデア を受け入れがたい。それは21世紀の労組を動かしてゆくものになり得るがシフトは困難を伴う。民主党の殆の人々が、つま り教組、公労組、専門的ギルド(法律家やアカデミクス)が、こういうアイデアを憎む。
The Democratic Party has a choice to make: the hard road pointed out by thinkers and party activists like Mickey Kaus or a slow and lingering death. So far, the choice is for death. Moving forward, the prospect of winning is a powerful political force, but so is inertia ? and the public sector unions have a lot of cash. We shall see. 民主党は選択を行なうべき時に来ている。困難だが次の方向を目指すミッキー・カウスのような活動家の方向にゆくのか、 あるいはゆっくりとした痛みの持続する死に向かうのか、であるけれど、今のところ死に向かう方を選んでいる。公労組は 多くの資金を蓄えてもいる。我々はその(民主党の選択の)成り行きをみることだろう。
Specifically, Premier Wen Jiabao announced in Brussels last week, the Communist leaders in Beijing fear their own people. He didn't put it quite that way, of course. But Mr. Wen did say that "if we increase the yuan by 20-40 percent as some people are calling for, many of our factories will shut down, and society will be in turmoil." And that, he added, would be "a disaster for China and the world." 温首相は先週ブラッセルで、中国政府が、その国民を恐れているのだと述べている。「もしも一部の主張のように人民元を 20−40%切り上げるのであれば、中国の多くの工場は閉鎖され、社会不安が起こる」「それは中国と、そして世界について 破滅的なことになるだろう」
Has he not noticed that governments all over the world are grappling with the political fallout of high unemployment -- which many of their citizens blame on China? 温首相はわかっていないようだが、世界中で失業率の高さからくる政治的な悪影響に取り組んでいる。それらの国の国民 は中国を非難しているか?
Ever since China embarked on its economic transformation three decades ago, the great question has been whether the trading democracies of the world can do business, and share power, with an authoritarian state that frets constantly about its own stability and legitimacy. Mr. Wen's comments only reinforced doubts about that fundamental issue. 中国の経済改革が数十年前に始まって以来、大きな疑問は自己の政権の正当性と社会の安定性に継続的に悩ませられ るような権威主義的な政権と世界の民主主義国がビジネスを続けパワーをシェア出来るのかというものであった。温首相の 発言は基本的な問題への疑問を深めさせる。
Politburo held a meeting at which Charter 08 was officially declared to be an attempt at "color revolution." Accordingly, Mr. Liu became "the big one" to target. 「08民主化チャーター」宣言の後、これについて討議した共産党常任委員会は、これを「カラー革命」を目指すものとし そのために劉暁波は大物の反体制活動家とされた。
There is irony here. The other "color revolution" leaders named in the Hu report had strong political organizations behind them: Mr. Yeltsin was a high-ranking Soviet official, Mr. Mandela led the African National Congress, Mr. Walesa led Solidarity, and Ms. Suu Kyi led a political party that had already won a national election. これは皮肉というべきで、「カラー革命」の指導者というのは、胡主席の報告にあるように強力な政治組織を背後に持つ ものである。エリツインは高位のソビエトの政治家、マンデラはANの指導者、ワレサは連帯の指導者である。スーキー女 史は選挙に大勝した政党の党首である。
Mr. Liu, by comparison, was a free-floating intellectual. If he turns out to be a "big one" of the kind Mr. Hu fears, then Mr. Hu can only blame himself for having made him so. By awarding him the Peace Prize, the Nobel Committee and Communist Party have become unwitting partners in producing what China's democrats and political dissenters have most needed: a leader of transcendent moral stature to rally around. 劉暁波は、これに比べてフリーランスの知識人に過ぎない。彼が胡主席の恐れた大物の活動家になるのであれば、それ は主席がそうしたせいである。彼にノーベル平和賞を与えることでノーベル賞選定委員会と共産党は中国の反体制民主 化運動の最も必要とするものを共に製造した。それは、寄るべき、卓越したモラルを有する指導者である。
For two decades China's rulers have sought to position themselves as the embodiment of "China" and to channel all nationalist sentiment through them. The Olympics, the World's Fair now underway in Shanghai, and the periodic stimulation of anger toward Japan, Tibet and elsewhere all reveal this pattern. 20年余にわたって中国の支配者は「中国」の具象化は自分たちであるとしてきた。そして全てのナショナリストのセンチメ ントを彼らによって流布してきた。オリンピック、万博、時折の反日行動、チベットその他の問題など、全てのこの種の問題 がそのパターンに当てはまる。
What Charter 08 and Mr. Liu are saying is, "No, 'China' can be something different, something better than a worn-out, old-style authoritarian government." Giving the Peace Prize to Mr. Liu provides a huge boost to that new vision of what China can be. 「チャーター08」と劉暁波のいうには「否、『中国』というのはそういうものではない。それは古臭い権威主義の政府の織り成 すところと異なって、より良きものである」ノーベル平和賞の授与で、劉暁波のこの「中国」への新見解は大きな支援を得た。
ttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/25e74c58-d493-11df-b230-00144feabdc0.html The fact of Mr Liu’s imprisonment is not well known in his homeland, and efforts to crack down on online discussion of his prize could, ironically, pique interest domestically in who he is and why he is in jail.
ttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac600588-d4fa-11df-ad3a-00144feabdc0.html US challenges China on maritime disputes By Ben Bland in Hanoi, Geoff Dyer in Beijing and Mure Dickie in Tokyo Published: October 11 2010 09:02 | Last updated: October 11 2010 10:12 ゲーツ国防長官は中国の南支那海の周辺諸国との紛争に挑戦する FT、11日
Robert Gates, US defence secretary, has voiced a challenge to Chinese demands that the US not get involved in maritime territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Speaking in Hanoi, Mr Gates said Washington had a strong interest in maritime security issues in Asia. ゲーツ国防長官は、中国の、南支那海での中国と周辺諸国の紛争に米国の介入しないようにとの要求に対して、 それに挑戦する発言を行った。ハノイの大学で講演して、長官は米国がアジアの海域の安全保障に強い関心を有 するとした。
“We need multilateral institutions in order to confront the most important security challenges in the region,” he told an audience at Vietnam National University. Mr Gates was talking ahead of a regional security summit in Vietnam this week which will focus attention again on disputed islands in the South China Sea. ゲーツ国防長官はベトナムでの地域サミットを前に、ベトナム国立大学で講演し南支那海の中国と周辺諸国との紛争に 関連して「我々は、この地域の重大な安全保障上の挑戦に対向するために、マルチラテラル(多国籍的)な機構を必要と する」と述べた。
In an interview with the Financial Times last week, Guan Youfei, a Chinese rear admiral and deputy director of the defence ministry’s foreign affairs office, said the summit was not the correct place to address the South China Sea dispute. Without mentioning the US by name, Adm Guan said it was other countries from outside the region that were responsible for raising diplomatic tensions over the South China Sea. 先週、FTのインタビューに答えた中国の人民解放軍外交部の副長官であるGuan Youfei提督は、ベトナムで開かれる安全 保障サミットは南支那海の問題を扱う適切な場所ではない、としている。米国の名指しは避けてGuan Youfeiは南支那海の 問題に関して外交的な緊張を高めているのはこの地域の外の勢力だ、と述べている(後略)
フランスの場合、憲法上の政教分離規定ってのは、 第一条一項の最初の文にいきなりあるんですよ。 適当な訳文が手元にないんで、原文そのまま書きますが、 La France est une Republique indivisible, laique, democratique et sociale. このlaique が政教分離の意味になります。名詞としては la laiciteとなりますが。 正確には政教分離というか、社会を公と私に分けて、 私的な内面では信教の自由は認めるけれど、 公では宗教的な色を出さないということ。 憲法の、フランスとは…という国の定義の段階で、それが出てくるわけですね。
Conversely, some of China’s most disturbing moves can be chalked up to exaggerated feelings of insecurity. Consider the harsh treatment of the gadfly critic Liu Xiaobao, sentenced to 11 years in prison on trumped-up charges of “subversion” for launching an Internet petition drive championing civil liberties. Would a truly self-confident ruling elite have been so skittish about his activism? 中国の問題の多い行動というのは、大げさに言えば、中国自身の安全保障への不安を示すとも言える。劉暁波に11年の 懲役を科する厳しい扱いは民主化運動を押さえ込むものであるが、本当に自信をこった政府や指導者というのは、彼の 民主化活動に対して、そこまで驚くような反応を示すであろうか?
The confident side of the Chinese leadership’s split personality is easy to understand. From the late 1980s until 2000, many observers presented the Communist Party as being on its last legs, certain to succumb to the “Leninist extinction” that began with communism’s collapse in Europe. But the Communist Party remains in charge today. 1980年代から2000年にかけてチャイナウオッチャーの多くは中国共産党が最後の段階にあると見ていた。欧州での共産 主義の終焉がいずれ中国に及ぶであろうと。しかし今日尚、共産党は中国を支配している。
The Communist Party is in a vulnerable position ? and knows it. That is no excuse for paranoia and repression, but just because the party has outlasted predictions of its demise does not mean that it has no Achilles heel. Most notably, the anger in China over corruption and nepotism that fueled the Tiananmen protests has never gone away. 共産党政権が予想に反して生き延びてきたことは、しかしそれがアキレス腱を持たないという意味ではない。中国国内 の汚職や縁故主義は天安門事件の抗議の主要なものであったが、今なおなくなってはいない。
China’s leaders thus continue to depend on a form of nationalism structured around tales of victimhood. They now base their legitimacy on the notion that the Communist Party, which rose to power as the nation fought foreign domination, is uniquely qualified to keep China from being bullied in a hostile international arena, and that only they, the leadership, can provide the stable environment needed for growth. 中国政府は、それに対抗して被害者の立場を取るナショナリズムの構造を持ってしている。現在ではそれが共産党政権の レジチマシーの主張になっている。外国の侵略に対抗して立ち上がり、戦った共産党政権は唯一の支配の正当性のある 存在であり、彼らのみが敵対的な国際環境の中で、中国の安定と成長を提供できる、とする。
The Chinese leadership’s split personality explains a curious phenomenon that former US State Department adviser Susan Shirk noted in her book “China: Fragile Superpower.” When Shirk mentioned the book’s title to American friends, they wondered why she used the modifier “fragile,” whereas Chinese friends told her that calling their country a “superpower” was premature. 国務省のアドバイザーであったSusan Shirkは、その著書“China: Fragile Superpower.” の中で説明しているがスーパー パワーが傷つきやすい(“fragile”)という一見矛盾したタイトルを付けている。
Shirk’s title still captures a significant phenomenon that bedevils diplomatic affairs. Outsiders are increasingly convinced that China is a superpower, and that it needs to show that it can be a responsible one. But China’s rulers only sometimes embrace the designation ? and the Communist Party still sometimes behaves as if it had only a tenuous hold on power. この本のタイトルは外交を考える上で有意なものを含んでいる。アウトサイダーは、中国をますます強大になるスーパー パワーと見るのだが、中国の指導者や共産党は、時に、その政権掌握がとても弱いかのような行動を示すのだ。
ttp://gatewaypundit.firstthings.com/2010/10/video-book-hurled-at-obama-in-philadelphia/ VIDEO- BOOK HURLED AT OBAMA IN PHILADELPHIA Posted by Jim Hoft on Sunday, October 10, 2010, 8:44 PM The state-run media today reported that Obama’s Sunday event, before a mostly black audience, was somewhat smaller and less enthusiastic than last week’s rally in Madison… Except for the book that was hurled at his head that the media ignored. オバマ大統領、フィラデルフィアでのキャンペーン中に本を投げつけられるのビデオ 10日
日曜日にフィラデルフィアの多くが黒人である聴衆に向けて講演中に本が投げられたが、それは大統領に命中し なかった。 Yes, it’s true. Our state-run media is so corrupt that they will not report that a book was hurled at Obama and barely missed hitting his head. Only the British media had the guts to report on it. アメリカの多くのメディアは此れを報道しなかったが、英国のメディアが報道している。
ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/oct/11/china-disputes-us-power China's global quarrels The forces driving China's disputes with Japan, south-east Asia and the US remain poorly understood in the west Simon Tisdall guardian.co.uk, Monday 11 October 2010 13.30 BST 中国のグローバルな紛争 by Simon Tisdall ガーディアン、10日
Most experts agreed that a "global power shift" was already well under way. How it would turn out was a matter of debate. But in one view, at least, Godemont reported, China's "cautious approach based on conflict avoidance is a temporary strategy intended to be applied while China rises. Ultimately, a China which has completed its ascent will 'let its writ run without constraint'." 殆の専門家は「グローバルパワーシフト」の起こり(はじめ)つつあることに同意する。それがどういう展開になるのかは ディベート対象である。しかしGodemontの書いているように、中国は「戦略的に衝突を避ける慎重なアプローチを取って きたが、中国の台頭が完成すれば、究極的には『遠慮をすてたやり方を使う』ことになろう」
What would be far more productive is a reassessment of the scale of the climate-change problem and how best to use limited funds to help the greatest number of people. How many more failed meetings will it take for climate negotiators to start listening as they limp toward Cancun?
What is his crime? He's a repeat offender, but most recently he became involved in the Charter 08 movement. What's Charter 08? It's a human-rights manifesto, modeled on the Charter 77 movement that brought Czechoslovakia's Vaclav Havel to prominence, which says that the Chinese people "see clearly that freedom, equality, and human rights are universal values." To what was Mr. Liu sentenced for putting his name to that line? Eleven years in prison. On what grounds? "Incitement to subvert state power."
The thread grows longer. Who else has signed Charter 08? So far, more than 8,000 Chinese have put their names to it. Are there other political prisoners in China? The Congressional-Executive Commission on China documents 1,383 political prisoners known to be detained or imprisoned as of July 2010. Is that the total figure? No: the State Department's human rights report on China estimates that "tens of thousands of political prisoners" (including religious prisoners) remain incarcerated.
Who are some of these people? There's Wang Bingzhang, a longtime democracy activist serving a life sentence in solitary confinement. There's Shi Tao, a journalist serving a 10-year sentence for passing along notes of an editorial meeting to a U.S.-based website. There's Hu Jia, an activist serving a three-year sentence for writing essays critical of the Communist Party in the runup to the Olympics. There's Gao Zhisheng, a human-rights lawyer who simply disappeared in 2009.
Where do political prisoners serve their terms? Often in an archipelago of labor camps scattered across China called Laogai. How many camps are there? At least 909, according to the Laogai Research Foundation. How many prisoners? The low-end estimate is 250,000; the high-end is five million. How does the existence of these camps affect broader Chinese society? The Laogai "is more than a place where rights are violated directly, with beatings, medical neglect and forced labor," writes Columbia Prof. Andrew Nathan in "Laogai," a devastating recent book on the subject. "It is also the anchor end of a continuum of rights-violating methods that the regime uses to enforce its form of rule." 中国の労働キャンプは少なくとも909ヶ所、収容人数は推定で25万人〜500万人
When the New York Times punctures a White House meme, it can reasonably be considered a flop. Last week, Barack Obama himself accused the Chamber of Commerce of using foreign money to push its domestic political activism, which would violate election law. Unfortunately, as the Times reports, the White House had absolutely no evidence of any wrongdoing. And Obama failed to mention that plenty of groups on the Left, especially labor unions, raise money outside the US as well. Now the White House is trying to step back from their earlier accusations of illegality, but they’re still desperately trying to hang onto the line of attack:(ry
>>740 >>762 nytの記事 Organizations from both ends of the political spectrum, from liberal ones like the A.F.L.-C.I.O. and the Sierra Club to conservative groups like the National Rifle Association, have international affiliations and get money from foreign entities while at the same time pushing political causes in the United States. アメリカ労働総同盟などのリベラル団体からライフル協会のような保守団体までアメリカの両翼の政治組織には 国際支部があり外国の団体から資金を得ているが、同時にアメリカで政治理念を推進している
White House officials acknowledged Friday that they had no specific evidence to indicate that the chamber had used money from foreign entities to finance political attack ads. ホワイトハウスは証拠がないことを認める “The president was not suggesting any illegality,” Bob Bauer, the White House counsel, said. Instead, he said Mr. Obama’s reference to the chamber was meant to draw attention to the inadequacies of campaign disclosure laws in allowing groups to spend large amounts of money on politics without disclosing their donors. "大統領は違法行為だと言ったわけではない"と大統領法律顧問は述べた オバマは選挙に関する情報公開法の不備に注目させようとしただけ
I applaud the Nobel Committee’s decision to award this year’s Nobel Peace Prize to Liu Xiaobo. Throughout its history, the Peace Prize has often been used to recognize the heroism of those who have, through persistent and peaceful efforts, sought to build a world that is more fair and free.
Mr. Liu has been a consistent advocate for fundamental freedoms and human rights for his fellow citizens and for peaceful political reform. Mr. Liu's work, including his role in the drafting of Charter ’08, and his receipt of this honor highlight the fact that while China has made tremendous economic progress in the last three decades, political reform has lagged behind. As I said in Krakow this summer, governments should recognize the constructive role that citizens such as Liu Xiaobo play. We urge China to uphold its international human rights obligations and to respect the fundamental freedoms and human rights of all Chinese citizens. We reiterate our call for Liu Xiaobo’s immediate release from prison.
PHOENIX, ARIZONA ? I heartily applaud the Nobel Committee for awarding its Peace Prize to the imprisoned Liu Xiaobo for his long and nonviolent struggle for human rights in China. In doing so, the committee has challenged the West to re-examine a dangerous notion that has become prevalent since the 1989 Tiananmen massacre: that economic development will inevitably lead to democracy in China.
ANY PUBLIC relations professional would find China's response to the Nobel Peace Prize almost inexplicable. Liu Xiaobo, a dissident serving an 11-year sentence for peaceful advocacy of democratic reform, on Friday became the first Chinese citizen to win the prize. China's Communist rulers promptly pulled the plug on television broadcasts and ramped up Internet censorship so Mr. Liu's fellow citizens wouldn't hear the news. They detained two dozen fellow dissidents who attempted a private celebration in a Beijing restaurant. To the outside world, they fulminated about the "desecration" of the prize and threatened Norway with doleful consequences. And then, as icing on the cake, they placed Mr. Liu's wife, Liu Xia, under house arrest. 広報PRの専門家は、中国政府が劉曉波のノーベル平和賞受賞後に行っている事を見て、殆ど不可解というだろう。 11年間の投獄を課せられている平和的な民主化運動活動家にノーベル平和賞が授与され、中国内地初の中国人 ノーベル賞受賞者が決まったとき、中国共産党はTVニュースを検閲し、インターネットでは盛大な検閲を行い、劉曉波 の仲間の国民がニュースを聞けないようにした。中国政府は北京のレストランで、ノーベル賞受賞を祝福しようとした2 ダースほどの反政府活動家を拘束した。中国政府の外交部は、これをノーベル賞の冒涜であるといい激しく非難した。 更にノルウェイ政府を脅迫した。それに加えて、中国政府は劉曉波の妻、劉霞を自宅監禁した。
Self-destructive, from a PR perspective, but not in fact inexplicable. These reactions simply demonstrate, once again, how fearful China's rulers are of their own people. Deprived of the legitimacy that democracy can bestow, they must censor at home and bluster abroad. The more they do so, the more they affirm Mr. Liu's worldview. "A regime cannot establish its legitimacy by suppressing different political views," he wrote in his failed legal defense, "nor can it maintain lasting peace and stability through literary inquisition." PRの観点から見れば自己破壊的であるようなこれ等の行動は説明不可能ではない。これらのリアクションは単純に、また もや中国の指導者が、如何に国民を恐れているのかを示している。民主化の与えるレジチマシーの欠如に悩む指導者等は 国内には検閲を、国外には脅迫を行うほかない。彼等がそういう事を行うにつけ、劉曉波の世界観を彼等は確認するのだ。 それは「政権は異なる政治的意見を抑圧することによって、レジチマシーを確立できるわけではない」「そうしたやり方で、 社会の平和と安寧が長きにわたって確保されるかは疑わしい」
中間選挙に向けて、民主党が候補者のトリアージに入った、とNYTの記事が書いている。アーメン。 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/12/us/politics/12repubs.html For Democrats, Even ‘Safe’ Seats Are Shaky By JEFF ZELENY Published: October 11, 2010
ST. CLAIRSVILLE, Ohio ? Republicans are expanding the battle for the House into districts that Democrats had once considered relatively safe, while Democrats began a strategy of triage on Monday to fortify candidates who they believe stand the best chance of survival. 共和党は中間選挙の下院議員の戦線を拡大していて、民主党がかっては安全圏とみなしていたような地区にまで戦い を進めている。一方民主党は、生き残りのチャンスの高い候補者を絞り込む、トリアージ戦略に手をつけ始めている。
As Republicans made new investments in at least 10 races across the country, including two Democratic seats here in eastern Ohio, Democratic leaders took steps to pull out of some races entirely or significantly cut their financial commitment in several districts that the party won in the last two election cycles. 共和党は全国で少なくとも10地区に選挙費用を追加投資する。それらはオハイオ州の民主党の占める二つの選挙区を 含んでいる。民主党は過去二回の選挙で勝利を収めた幾つかの選挙区から、選挙費用の引き上げや削減を行っている。
Representatives Steve Driehaus of Ohio, Suzanne M. Kosmas of Florida and Kathy Dahlkemper of Pennsylvania were among the Democrats who learned that they would no longer receive the same infusion of television advertising that party leaders had promised. Party strategists conceded that these races and several others were slipping out of reach. オハイオ州のSteve Driehaus、フロリダ州のSuzanne M. Kosmas、ペンシルバニア州のKathy Dahlkemperなどの下院議員 候補者が切り捨てられた事例である。民主党はこれらの選挙区で勝利の見込みがないとみなしている。
With three weeks remaining to save its majority, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has increased its spending on two New York races, along with at-risk seats in Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Kentucky and Massachusetts, setting up a map of competitive districts that is starkly different from when the campaign began. 選挙戦が残り3週間となって、DCCCはニューヨーク、コロラド、ジョージア、イリノイ、ケンタッキー、マサチューセッツなどの 州への選挙費用を増加させている。(後略)
アメリカ経済のダブルディップを避けるために、NYUのルービニ教授がオバマ政権に提案しているもの ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/10/11/avoid_the_double_dip Avoid the Double Dip:How Obama can save the fragile economy from going back into a tailspin. BY NOURIEL ROUBINI, MICHAEL MORAN | NOVEMBER 2010
・・・・・ Start with the one thing that everyone loves to hate: taxes. Forget the political hot potato over the size and shape of the cuts -- there's an easy way to do this. For the next two years, Obama should reduce payroll taxes for both employers and employees. The reduction for employers will lower labor costs and allow the hiring of more workers; for employees, increased take-home pay will get people spending again. It's not just about increasing foot traffic in the mall; households need to pay down the burden of credit cards, second mortgages, and other legacies of the years of easy credit.
But this tax cut can't bust the budget. How can it be funded? By allowing George W. Bush's tax cuts for people making more than $250,000 to expire while keeping in place those for middle- and low-income earners -- the vast majority of Americans. And whatever trickle-down Republicans in Congress say, Obama will have to remain firm on this. ・・・・・ Both for policy and political reasons, Obama should emphasize that these changes would be temporary. Absent a new stimulus package -- which appears highly unlikely at this point -- these cuts are the best way to avert another economic disaster. They direct billions of dollars back to the American households that are most likely to spend them and those businesses most likely to hire new employees.(ry
新たにNSCの国家安全保障担当アドバイザーに指名されたThomas Donilonについて、以前から余り芳しくない 話を聞くのだけれど、これはAEIの研究者の書いている、大変否定的な評論・・・ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.aei.org/article/102649 The Declinists Win By Arthur Herman Monday, October 11, 2010
If anyone still doubted that America's foreign policy is in crisis, the appointment Friday of Thomas Donilon to be our new national-security adviser should be final proof.
More than 4 of 10 likely voters who say they once considered themselves Obama backers now are either less supportive or say they no longer support him at all, according to a Bloomberg National Poll conducted Oct. 7-10.
Intel (INTC) this afternoon posted slightly better than expected results for the third quarter, reporting revenue of $11.1 billion and profits of 52 cents a share, ahead of the consensus at $11 billion and 50 cents. CEO Paul Otellini noted in a statement that the company set all-time record for revenue and operating income. (Operating income in the quarter was $4.1 billion.) It was the first quarter ever in which Intel broke $11 billion in revenue. “These results were driven by solid demand from corporate customers, sales of our leadership products and continued growth in emerging market,” he said.
PC client group revenue was up 3% from Q2, while data center revenue was up 3%. Atom processor revenue was down 4% sequentially. Gross margin of 66% was in the middle of the forecast range of 65%-67%. Expenses were in line with expectations. The company had an effective tax rate of 30.5%, below the forecast level of 32%. But the company also said gains from equity investments and interest and other income was $115 million, lower than the $175 million the company had forecast.
At quarter end, the company had just under $15 billion in cash and short term investments, up from $12.2 billion one quarter earlier, and $9.3 billion a year ago. Total cash, including marketable debt securities, rose to $20.3 billion, from $17.8 billion at the end of Q2, and $12.9 billion a year ago. The company did not buy back stock in the latest quarter. Headcount increased to 81,700 at quarter end, up 1,300 from 80,400 one quarter earlier.
For Q4, the company sees revenue of $11.4 billion, plus-or-minus $400 million; the Street has been forecasting $11.33 billion. Intel sees gross margin of 67% in Q4, plus or minus “a couple percentage points.” Tax rate is expected to tick up to 31%. Full year capital spending is expected to be $5.2 billion, plus-or-minus $200 million; that is consistent with the company’s forecast when it reported the June quarter. INTC in late trading is up 18 cents, or 0.9%, to $19.95. Q4の業績見通しは利益 $11.4 billion(plus-or-minus $400 million)とし、予想の$11.33Bを超えた。時間外取引で インテル株価は0.9%上昇。