1. Memorette-If she moves up on grass at all she's very dangerous, as her BSFs match up with Melhor Ainda, and her works on the grass make it appear that she has handled the grass pretty well so far.
At 30-1 why not here.
2. Melhor Ainda-Obvious choice and an impressive looking filly, but in a field of 13 talented fillies, you have to try and look for value in this spot, and Melhor Ainda is good, but value is not good her. Must use in all slots however.
3. Cesario-Japanese filly is obviously tough and good, and Desormeaux said that she is better than Dance in the Mood who was second last year. Contender in a wide open and contentious race.
Tough race as we get runners from both coasts of the US and from England, Ireland, Italy and Japan. How does the form from each respective circuit stack up?
Of the Euro's Luas Line looks much the best. Her third in the Iriash 1000 gns was bias aided. The first 4 home that day were drawn 13, 16,17,18 of 18 runners. She was drawn 18. That being said it was still a good performance as that race was Luas Line's frst race in 9 months.
The 5th horse came back to win a G1 at Royal Ascot at York and the winner Saoire was about to run a good race versus and good bunch of elder fillies before being stopped in the race. Luas Line then faced the boys at Royal Ascot and closed decently at 7f on a track that was pretty kind to early speed. The 3rd in that race goes in a G1 in France tomorrow..
The Japanese horse Caesario has the from to win this but is a closer and is drawn very badly considering the start of this race is on the turn. If she can get a decent trip she figures to be close.
The best of the west is clearly Three Degrees who has handled the rest of the West Coast horses in this field fairly easily. She is also drawn badly though in 11.
Melhor Ainda hasnt really faced a decent field yet but she has handled what she has faced with ease and its the visualsthat are impressive rather than the company lines or speed figs.
she quite well could be much better than these but at 2/1 versus a big and classy field I'll try and beat her..
Luas Line to win with exacta savers under Three Degrees and Melhor Ainda
I'm inclined to downgrade Three Degrees and the others coming out of the Honeymoon because the favorite that day (Berbatim) broke slowly, and as a confirmed front runner it changed the whole complexion of the race.
No question Three Degrees has some talent, and is obviously bred for the 1 1/4, but as the local hope she's gonna be around 4-1, which to me is too low. Luas Line could be ok, and we keep hearing she should like the firm ground.
If a Euro is going to win this thing, she's probably the one. If she stays near her 12-1 ML she's worth including. I have no clue about the Japanese filly or the competition she's faced, but her Timeforms are decent enough.
But this all seems like a reach to beat Melhor Ainda. I think 2-1 is more than fair, and with the money expected to come in on Three Degrees I think M.A. stays at or near her ML.
I'll single her...
Who do you like in the Triple Bend? I'm still waiting for Mass Media to break out. He's got the class to win this, has the best Beyer on the page at the distance, and is coming out of the best races (Smokeume just came back to win). From the West I like Forest Grove. Although Areyoutalkintome made it close last time, Forest Grove had to wait for a 1/4 of a mile before he got to run. The win was easier than looked, IMO. There's speed in the race, but not the kind that produces a last-to-first winner.
The winner should come from mid-pack somewhere, so Forest Grove and Mass Media should both sit perfect trips behind the rail horse and three outside horses. I'll be using both in the multi-race exotics.
My main concern is the Roi Charmant getting clear early and running them off their feet the way Disturbingthepeace did in this race a few years back. In such a large field, I'll probably use that one, too, as he'll be a great price.
12 davyork 2005/07/03(日) 5:04 Had a quick look before I go out this morning.Will look closer later on.
Japanese Turf form is world class.You have to make the Jap horse fave here.She was second in the Jap 1000 Guineas(first leg of triple crown) and won their version of the Oaks(second leg of crown).She's consistant,which I love.
Strange race. A horse trying the grass for the first time, a maiden with a second in a Grade I, and several eligible for non-winners of two. It's hard to go past the favorite but I'll take a shot with Singhalese. She made a move in her last and then hung, probably needed that race. Three Degrees is a logical California-based possibility.
I agree, and believe it or not, that horse trying the grass for the first time is very scary IMO, because if she turfs, her dirt form puts her right there as she was competing with the top 3YO dirt Fillies and she was right there each time.
And those grass works indicate that she can certainly handle the grass.
Post 13 and very short home stretch compared to Japan are going to be big negatives on this one but I agree that she comes here with probably the best form on paper.
I think beyers on grass are pretty useless. Pace, class and trips are far more important in my opinion.
Memorette's only win vs winners came in a statebred race so as far as class gloes she is completly out of her depth here. As for Trip she is likely to be in trouble as she is a closer drawn 1 and is going to have to some how weave her was through traffic in a big field. As for pedigree he dam sire was a good grass horse but as far as I know Memo is not a turf sure.
I really cant see that there is much evidence that she will move up on grass to take on the many proven graded grass horses she faces here.
Agree with you on Memorette.Been traning nicely on the turf.Melhor Alinda will be tough. Also looking at Sweet Firebird,like that she gets Solis and although she only has a maiden win to her credit,she get lasix and blinkers and has run the distance 3 times. To say she has good turf breeding should be considered an understatement.Will play those 3 in ex"s and tri"s.Good Luck
Three Degrees wins this year's American Oaks. The bet is her on top with all with Melhor Alinda for the tri. MA is freaky but will face types that like to run in the lane like she does. TD caps a big day and weekend for Bailey.
either melhor ainda is not as good as we thought or that filly is just that good because she embarressed that field, it was like a maiden special with that very good horse who crushes.
not that it mattered much but watch Luas Line on the replay. She was almost last entering the backstretch and then took off inside to be 3rd leaving the backstretch only to check of the tiring Thatswhatimean.
thats my feeling as well watching the replay, she got hooked a bit wide on the turn and finished strong but the winner had way to much acceleration for them.
Definately odd she was so far back early. They were not going so fast as to leave her that far off. She rallied nicely and beat the rest of the field easily..
I think she just happened to run into a monster today
Yeah, she really shouldnt have been that far back... Velazquez left her with way too much to do, she finished full of run... probably wouldnt have made much difference in the end, but Frankel can't be happy at all with the ride.
Considering how she ran off uncontrolably prior to the race, im shocked the Japanese filly ran so huge...
Frankel isnt too forgiving.. he had alot of confidence in Melhor Ainda today, I imagine he's very upset at the horse being left with too much to do late... Im expecting Bailey or Prado to take over...
Hmmm.... my odds of attending the BC? conservatively.. 250-1...
I was thinking more along the lines of 6-1....wow..you just made yourself a million to one with that statement...i know the ride is just to far... what is it like 20 minutes?
It's about a half hour to Belmont with normal traffic... Hey my dad just went last week with his friends, practically begged me to go, I said no... He's going again next week.... 1000000000-1 ill be there...
As ive said in the past, going to the track isnt as fun at it use to be...
Kiri, did Melhor run well, despite her bad break? I'm so disappointed, but not in her, since it sounds like she put in a heck of a run. It's frustrating when a horse gets beat by a bad trip- I can deal with it if he's not good enough,
but man.......I don't think I can watch the replay of this race.
I hope Melhor comes out of the race ok; it doesn't sound good that she grabbed a quarter. She'll beat every American grass fily easily, and I hope for a rematch with Cesario down the line.
She ran very well, she sat second to last early, had a fairly wide trip after that... But came on nicely at the end... She'll be back in the winners circle next out no doubt...
I havent lost any respect for her at all, I think she's every bit the filly we all thought she was prior to the race...
Considering the trouble she had early, it was a very impressive performance...
Thanks, Kiri. I may be disappointed in the result, but not in MA's performance. She'll get her chance at another grade 1 (hope she's ok, though!), and the nice thing is, there's always another race. At least she proved that she can go 1 1/4 and run well when things don't go her way.
Good racing...Day of tough beats for me at Hollywood. Had West's horse that got nosed out at the line and had Island Fashion at that price, that got nosed out.
Did ya catch the hit though in the first at Belmont with Calypso Band? Great price there.
Velasquez was asleep on the job not only on Ainda but on Qsar too. Both of those losses were just amplified by j.r. not getting the horses involved in the race fast enough.
The oaks could have been quite a finish otherwise.
This race was over in the paddock, when that Japanese filly entered the walking ring, that was it...game over. I was blown away by this fillies presence and charisma,
she was looking at all the other horses while on her toes ready to rumble, the others were clearly running for the place spots, Melhor Ainda is the best US filly, but Cesario would beat her everyday of the week, at any distance in my opinion, she completely outclassed them.
It was very nice seeing everyone standing on their feet and giving her a standing ovation! Superstar filly.
Cesario really did have a presence about her and looked like her grandsire, Sunday Silence, in both color and appearance. Her royal bloodlines run through the family, as her broodmare sire is the prolific Sadlers Wells. Let's just hope we get to see this grand-looking filly on United States soil again.
Cesario simply was much the best yesterday folks. All the rest were basically running for the spoils. No one was going to beat her yesterday. Her final 1/4 was 23 and change...The Frankel filly may be good.
But she would have to be something special to beat her yesterday. Despite the debated bad ride by JR. Frankly it didn't matter if she had a perfect trip. She wouldn't have beaten Cesario.
I echo many of the sentiments of her just standing out in the walking ring. It was like she had just stepped out of the Amazon and into the park against mortal females. She just looked the part of class and beauty.
We in NA often think that racing is better here...Quality and talent wise. I for one always thought the rest of the world has caught up and in some cases are better at doing things then the NA's.
Is it really a surprise a nation like Japan can take something and make it better? The Car industry just for starters is a prime example. Japanese imports are rubbing it in the NA's faces right now. Look at the decline of GM plants around America and Canada.
In today's racing a good healthy respect for other racing venues should not be overlooked by simple idiotic patriotic pride. Racing is a global sport. I appreciate all racing around the world.
The Orient(Hong Kong and Japan in particular) has made big strides in racing. I can understand why we NA's can appreciate Cigar's win streak more than Hong Kong's Silent Witness and sure Cigar was probably the better horse.
But nor should Silent Witness' streak be scoffed at either. Just because it's half a world away. Horseracing is a true global sport. We can appreciate the best that both cultures have to offer.
Charm, you would have flipped over this filly, she brought back memories of the great Ruffian, you know that wild-eyed look Ruffian would exhibit when galloping, when Cesario broke off and starting sprinting in the post parade the Japanese group started cheering, obviously this behavior was usual for her!
Cesario was a sight I will not soon forget. I had a fantastic time at Hollywood Park, great racing! I also got to chat with Jerry Bailey and had him sign my book, he was still excited about Wend's performance the day before.