Russia and China Close to SU-35 Deal…Again By Trefor Moss November 30, 2012
Amidst all the fanfare surrounding China’s increasingly impressive roster of homemade aircraft, Beijing has doggedly maintained its pursuit of Russia’s best military plane, the Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jet. Reports this week suggest that this persistence may finally have paid off, and that a deal with the Russians is now close to being sealed.
The deal’s revival reveals much about the motivations of Beijing and Moscow. Both sides had good reason to give up on the whole idea after the agreement first ran into trouble earlier this year. Landing indigenously developed J-15s on an aircraft carrier, or testing new stealth fighters ? these are kind of the boosterish headlines that China’s leadership enjoys, as they feed into the narrative of China as an up-and-coming power with the capability to leap technological hurdles. Buying off-the-shelf planes from Russia does the exact opposite: It is an admission that China still has limitations, and that is still a playing catch-up.
As for the Russians, the thought of their prize fighter jet being stripped down, copied and mass-produced with nothing more than a thin coat of Chinese paint looked like it would be too much for Moscow to stomach, as it refused to sell Beijing small numbers of the aircraft.
Ultimately, however, self-interest seems to prevailed on both sides, with China supposedly agreeing to acquire 24 Su-35s ? not as many as the Russians wanted, but just about enough to make the sale worthwhile.
China clearly needs the Su-35, perhaps for its military capabilities, perhaps for its technology, and probably for both. Moscow may fret that after buying one batch of 24 aircraft China will not come back for more.So a follow-on order is possible, especially if the PLA has argued for the Sukhoi because it needs the aircraft for military reasons. Certainly, as tensions simmer in the East Sea and the South China Sea, arguments for buying the Su-35 as a frontline fighter become increasingly compelling. China’s current aircraft are almost certainly overmatched by Japanese F-15s, for example.
それでロシア政府は最新鋭機を支那に今後も売ることになるだろう。おそらく高性能なSu35を支那に渡せば この地域の他の国から戦闘機の発注を受ける。ロシアはそれを期待している。 了(訳:俺) Russia, for its part, needs China’s business, since many of its once-stalwart customers are no longer reliable markets. China is close to achieving self-reliance in defense production: The Su-35 sale could be Moscow’s last hurrah in that particular marketplace. India, once heavily dependent on Russian kit, is diversifying its supply base. Vietnam’s economic situation is precarious, and Hanoi could struggle to pay for the Russian systems it has already ordered, let alone acquire more. All bets are off as far as Syria is concerned. And future orders from Venezuela could depend on Hugo Chavez’s parlous state of health.
So Moscow will hold its nose as it sells its best fighter aircraft to the Chinese. And the sale could produce more than just Beijing’s cash. Perhaps by handing China the highly capable Su-35, Russia is hoping to create demand for its fighter aircraft elsewhere in the region.
"They've made remarkable progress in the development of their arms industry, but this progress shouldn't be overstated," said Vasily Kashin, a Beijing-based expert on China's defense industry. "They have a long tradition of overestimating their capabilities."
Ruslan Pukhov, the director of the Center for Analysis of Strategic Technologies and an adviser to Russia's ministry of defense, predicted that China would need a decade to perfect a jet engine, among other key weapons technologies. "China is still dependent on us and will stay that way for some time to come," he said.
China's military relations with Russia reveal further weaknesses. Between 1992 and 2006, the total value of Russia's arms exports to China was $26 billion - almost half of all the weapons Russia sold abroad.
But tensions arose in 2004 over two issues, Russian experts said. Russia was outraged when it discovered that China, which had been licensed to produce the Su-27 fighter jet from Russian kits, had actually copied the plane. China was furious that after it signed a contract for a batch of IL-76 military transport planes it discovered that Russia had no way to make them. After receiving 105 out of a contracted 200 Su-27s, China canceled the deal and weapons negotiations were not held for several years.