-- Hague Convention on Parental Child Abductions: We and our Canadian and EU colleagues continue to press Japan to accede to the Hague Convention on the Civil Aspects of International Child Abduction. However, our Japanese interlocutors remain insistent that bureaucratic, legal and cultural barriers make near-term progress difficult. ZUMWALT
「自民党内で指導力を欠く」 ¶4. (S) Furthermore, domestic public opinion in Japan (and according to our Russian Embassy contacts, also in Russia) would not tolerate any type of compromise by a political leader. In that regard, Prime Minister Taro Aso has much less room for maneuver, given his low poll numbers and leadership of a ruling Liberal Democratic Party that is on the edge of an historic loss of control of the Diet. As a result, no ruling-party politician in Hokkaido would jeopardize a very popular visa-waiver program used by locals transiting between Hokkaido and the Northern Territories ) something a hard-pressed LDP would have to take into account as the party fights for its electoral life.
¶12. (S) Despite some occasional public posturing, the Japanese and Russians maintain a healthy, diverse, and profitable range of contacts across the military, political, and economic spectrum and are content to leave things pretty much the way they are. What both sides need, and have so far succeeded in working toward, is a routine mechanism for managing the random small-scale crises (e.g. fishing boat violations, military aircraft incursions) that might, if not handled correctly, turn into the large-scale diplomatic incident neither side wants. Witness the quietly effective way both sides handled the 2006 incident where the Russian Coast Guard killed a crew member of a fishing boat that allegedly crossed the Northern Territories demarcation line (Ref I), or the way Russia dialed back its public rhetoric on U.S.-Japan BMD cooperation (Ref C). Japan and Russia will usually quietly find ways to resolve minor festering issues and continue with business as usual. ZUMWALT