【海外】貧しい独…１人あたりの国民所得、ＥＵ平均下回る

Germany's economy

Odd European out

Feb 19th 2004
From The Economist print edition

Germany is now a relatively poor member of the European club

GERMANY used to be one of Europe's richest nations. In the late 1980s
its GDP per head was 20% higher than the average of the European
Union. But estimates by The Economist suggest that Germany's GDP per
head fell 1% below the EU average last year (measured at purchasing-
power parity, to take account of differences in prices). Only four of
the EU'S 15 members now have a lower income per head. The entry of
new members into the EU on May 1st will help to spare Germany's
blushes, because these countries' lower incomes will once again push
Germany up above a new European average. Nevertheless Germany's
relative economic decline has been alarming by any measure. And it
looks as if it will continue.

Some of Germany's poor record can be attributed to the
reunification of East and West Germany in 1990. At the stroke
of a pen this produced a country with average incomes 13% lower
than the former West Germany's. Yet this still left income per
person for a united Germany 9% higher than the EU average.
Since then Germany has been the EU's slowest-growing economy,
with an average annual growth rate of only 1.4%—roughly the
same as that achieved by feeble Japan over the same period.
Japan's economy does at last seem to be perking up, with GDP
growth of 3.6% over the year to the fourth quarter. By contrast,
Germany's GDP rose by a meagre 0.2%.

訳してくれ

これも面白いエコノミストの記事
（２月１８日）

http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2441009

アジアで真新しい経済強国が誕生しようとしている。（中略）　その強国とは進境著しい中国ではなく
隠れていたアジアの巨人・日本である。

と日本の景気回復は本物であると分析している。

ヒトラーが怒りそうな記事だな

Germany's poor economic performance is responsible for much of the
under-performance of Europe relative to the United States. It has
been common to lambast all European economies as sclerotic. Yet in
many ways Europe excluding Germany looks a bit like America. For
example, over the past decade GDP per head in the rest of the EU grew
by an average of 2.3%—even faster than America's 2.1% average growth.
European businesses are often accused of being inefficient and
unprofitable, hobbled by high wage costs and red tape. Yet a new
study by Goldman Sachs finds that, while corporate America's rate of
return on capital is twice that in Germany, the rate of return in the
rest of the EU is even higher (see article). And though it is true
that European labour markets are in general less flexible than
America's, Europe outside of Germany has been creating just as many
jobs as America. Over the past decade, employment has risen by an
average of only 0.2% a year in Germany, against a rate of 1.3% a year
in the rest of the EU, exactly the same pace of increase as in
America.

エコノミストの記事がアクセス不可能なので検討しようがないが
ドイツの他の新聞を見てるうちに、だんだん事情が分かってきた

・これはエコノミストの独自試算
・これがSpiegel（>>218）によってドイツに紹介。読売の記
事は多分 Spiegel によるもの (>>218)
・この試算に使われたのは購買力平価換算（Tagesspiegel)
・だから換算の仕方によっていろいろに変わる。
・単純にGDPを人口数で割った生の値だと ドイツの 一人当たりGDP
はまだまだヨーロッパ平均よりは上。フランスより上。
・EurostatのGDP per capita 購買力平価換算 によると2002のド
イツはEU15を100とするときちょうど100。でドイツは凋落傾向にあ
るから2003がEU平均以下になってもおかしくない（これは
Tagesspiegelも指摘）。
・購買力平価換算でも別のソース（CIAの統計だと）、ドイツの2002
はフランス、スウェーデン、イギリスよりも上（購買力の計算法の違
いによる）。
・Berliner Zeitung はEurostataによる基づく生の数字の計算によ
って、Economist - Spiegel の記事を「ガセ」とする。と同時にド
イツの凋落傾向＝EU平均との差がどんどん縮まる傾向に警告を発する。
・記事自体が怪しいからか、専門紙のFrankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
は特にとりあげる模様なし。Suddeutsche Zeitungも。

>>401 -
Many Thnx

Apologists argue that Germany has not done so badly given the
heavy cost of reunification. But this glosses over deeper
problems that existed well before reunification. Germany not
only has high wage costs, high taxes and an over-generous
welfare state, in common with many other continental European
economies, it must also cope with the hangover from years of
over-investment due to a subsidised cost of capital, thanks to
the big role played by state-owned banks. This is why German
firms earn such a feeble rate of return on their capital: they
invested too much in the past. Now, German firms, just like
their Japanese counterparts, are having to reduce their
investment as capital costs rise towards normal levels. Germany
has other factors in common with Japan. It suffered the biggest
fall in share prices after the stockmarket bubble burst in 2000,
and house prices have been falling for much of the past
decade—just as in Japan.

Wurst to come?
A more efficient use of capital will be good for Germany's
longer-term prospects, but for several more years necessarily
higher borrowing costs are likely to depress investment and
growth. This increases the urgency of labour-market reforms,
which would help the economy to adjust with less pain. Even
with reform, however, it looks all too likely that Germany's
economy will get worse before it gets better.