【タイ】 元フランス代表､ジダン氏がタイ北部でチャリティーマッチ [02/20]
SOUTH
North Carolina +4 This suggests that John Edwards had some home-state strength
in '04 that Hillary can't match.
Florida +1 The one southern state in play in '04 moves slightly toward
Rudy.
Kentucky -0.5 Negligible movement in state Bill Clinton carried in '92 but
that has been easily Republican since.
Virginia -0.5 Negligible movement in state that has become more competitive;
could be in play.
Tennessee -1.5 Small movement in still heavily Republican state.
Georgia -2.5 Movement, but still heavily Republican. Hillary competitive in
metro Atlanta but not elsewhere.
South Carolina -4.5 Still heavily Republican.
Texas -4.5 Still heavily Republican. Rudy matches Bush '04 strong showing
among Hispanics.
Louisiana -6 Moves toward being in play. But will black Democrats return to
New Orleans?
West Virginia -6 State Bush easily carried in '04 is very much in play in this
matchup.
Arkansas -6.5 The state where Hillary was first lady for 12 years still likes
her; in play now.
Alabama -7 Still heavily Republican.
Mississippi -7 Still heavily Republican.
Oklahoma -9.5 The biggest Democraticward movement in all 50 states but still
heavily Republican.
National upshot: Rudy's electoral vote position against Hillary is much stronger than
Bush's against Kerry.
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面白い計算で、04大統領選挙のデータを元に、各地でのジュリアーニとヒラリーの支持率で
損得を計算して、各州のレッド・ブルーを判定しているもの。この計算ではジュリアーニは
ヒラリーに、04大統領選挙以上の差をつけて勝つことになる。ジュリアーニは、そのリベラ
ルな社会的価値観で、バイブルベルトで支持を落としても、他で得る得点のほうが大きいと
いう事になっているような。
North Carolina +4 This suggests that John Edwards had some home-state strength
in '04 that Hillary can't match.
Florida +1 The one southern state in play in '04 moves slightly toward
Rudy.
Kentucky -0.5 Negligible movement in state Bill Clinton carried in '92 but
that has been easily Republican since.
Virginia -0.5 Negligible movement in state that has become more competitive;
could be in play.
Tennessee -1.5 Small movement in still heavily Republican state.
Georgia -2.5 Movement, but still heavily Republican. Hillary competitive in
metro Atlanta but not elsewhere.
South Carolina -4.5 Still heavily Republican.
Texas -4.5 Still heavily Republican. Rudy matches Bush '04 strong showing
among Hispanics.
Louisiana -6 Moves toward being in play. But will black Democrats return to
New Orleans?
West Virginia -6 State Bush easily carried in '04 is very much in play in this
matchup.
Arkansas -6.5 The state where Hillary was first lady for 12 years still likes
her; in play now.
Alabama -7 Still heavily Republican.
Mississippi -7 Still heavily Republican.
Oklahoma -9.5 The biggest Democraticward movement in all 50 states but still
heavily Republican.
National upshot: Rudy's electoral vote position against Hillary is much stronger than
Bush's against Kerry.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
面白い計算で、04大統領選挙のデータを元に、各地でのジュリアーニとヒラリーの支持率で
損得を計算して、各州のレッド・ブルーを判定しているもの。この計算ではジュリアーニは
ヒラリーに、04大統領選挙以上の差をつけて勝つことになる。ジュリアーニは、そのリベラ
ルな社会的価値観で、バイブルベルトで支持を落としても、他で得る得点のほうが大きいと
いう事になっているような。
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