【タイ】 元フランス代表､ジダン氏がタイ北部でチャリティーマッチ [02/20]
＜モルガンスタンレー報告、3月5日、中国経済＞
ttp://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/index.html#anchor4519
The Heavy Lifting of Chinese Rebalancing
March 05, 2007
By Stephen S. Roach | New York
ＭＳ：中国経済のリバランスの負荷の重さ
Ｂｙ：ステファン・ローチ
China is at a critical juncture. Over the past 15 years, its powerful investment- and
export-led growth model has been driven by bank-directed recycling of its massive pool
of domestic saving. Coupled with aggressive and unprecedented reforms of its state-
owned enterprises, China’s transition to “market-based socialism” has been nothing
short of spectacular. But this model is now in danger of outliving its usefulness.
The investment sector has gone to excess and the export dynamic is in danger of
triggering a protectionist backlash. The lack of a vibrant consumer sector, in
conjunction with the legacy effects of state- and bank-directed capital allocation, are
critical obstacles that must be overcome if the Chinese economy is to move to the next
level.
China’s unbalanced macro structure is also presenting its leadership with major
cyclical control problems. Lacking in well-developed market-based systems, China
recently upped the ante in opting for “administrative controls” to cope with its
mounting imbalances (see “China Squeeze” cited above).
In my view, the only viable answer is an acceleration of reforms ? focusing both on
the nascent consumer as well as on an embryonic financial system. A successful
rebalancing of the Chinese economy is essential to avoid the boom-bust cycles that
were so prevalent in the past. Yet until the obstacles to rebalancing are removed,
China’s overheated investment sector and over-extended exports pose increasingly
serious risks to sustainable and stable growth.
Brilliant as its success has been since the early 1990s, China can no longer afford
to stay the same course. A new direction is essential ? and the sooner the better.
As the National People’s Congress now meets in Beijing, the obstacles to Chinese
rebalancing ? and the tactics to overcome these obstacles ? could well be at the top
of its agenda.
ttp://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/index.html#anchor4519
The Heavy Lifting of Chinese Rebalancing
March 05, 2007
By Stephen S. Roach | New York
ＭＳ：中国経済のリバランスの負荷の重さ
Ｂｙ：ステファン・ローチ
China is at a critical juncture. Over the past 15 years, its powerful investment- and
export-led growth model has been driven by bank-directed recycling of its massive pool
of domestic saving. Coupled with aggressive and unprecedented reforms of its state-
owned enterprises, China’s transition to “market-based socialism” has been nothing
short of spectacular. But this model is now in danger of outliving its usefulness.
The investment sector has gone to excess and the export dynamic is in danger of
triggering a protectionist backlash. The lack of a vibrant consumer sector, in
conjunction with the legacy effects of state- and bank-directed capital allocation, are
critical obstacles that must be overcome if the Chinese economy is to move to the next
level.
China’s unbalanced macro structure is also presenting its leadership with major
cyclical control problems. Lacking in well-developed market-based systems, China
recently upped the ante in opting for “administrative controls” to cope with its
mounting imbalances (see “China Squeeze” cited above).
In my view, the only viable answer is an acceleration of reforms ? focusing both on
the nascent consumer as well as on an embryonic financial system. A successful
rebalancing of the Chinese economy is essential to avoid the boom-bust cycles that
were so prevalent in the past. Yet until the obstacles to rebalancing are removed,
China’s overheated investment sector and over-extended exports pose increasingly
serious risks to sustainable and stable growth.
Brilliant as its success has been since the early 1990s, China can no longer afford
to stay the same course. A new direction is essential ? and the sooner the better.
As the National People’s Congress now meets in Beijing, the obstacles to Chinese
rebalancing ? and the tactics to overcome these obstacles ? could well be at the top
of its agenda.
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