【タイ】 元フランス代表､ジダン氏がタイ北部でチャリティーマッチ [02/20]
これは中国株のテクニカル・アナリシスのＱ＆Ａだけど・・
ttp://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/feb2007/pi20070228_476673.htm
Investing Q&A February 28, 2007, 12:00AM EST text size: TT
The China Meltdown: Reading the Charts
ビジネスウイーク：投資Ｑ＆Ａ：チャイナ・メルトダウン
After today's sell-off in China's stock market, how does the chart for the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund look now?
On a purely technical basis, we have broken below the 50-day exponential moving average
[a price average that smoothes the regular average by giving more weight to recent
data] and we have also broken key chart support [the price where most investors feel
that it will move higher] at 102. We have dropped to a couple of pieces of support that
are somewhat significant. The first one is a trend line drawn off the July and
September lows. And we have also retraced about 38.2% of the 70% rise that we saw in
the ETF from June 13 until Jan. 3, and both of those pieces of support come in around
the 97 area. The ETF is at 96.6 right now.
What's next?
I don't think the worst is over for this particular ETF. I think there's a good
possibility that the ultimate low will be around the 85 level, which would represent
a 27% decline from the all-time closing high on Jan. 3 of 116.4.
What do you see further down the road for China's market?
That's a difficult question. If we get down to the 85 level, the Chinese market could
go sideways for an extended period of three to six months. The reason for that is
anytime a market falls dramatically, it's very rare that it turns around quickly.
What's much more common after a dramatic drop is an index or individual stock will
move sideways for a number of months and put in a basing formation, or sideways action.
What does this decline signal for U.S. stocks?
I think what this says about the U.S. market is it has been somewhat clear that there
has been a high degree of speculation in global stock markets, and that a fast and
quick and dirty correction could take global markets down 5% to 10%. That would include
the U.S market.
I don't think this will lead to a bear market for the U.S. This is just a much needed
correction in an extremely overbought market. And once it's over, we will probably move
to new highs for the U.S market. I'm still positive on U.S. stocks for the longer term,
looking out to the end of the year.
ttp://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/feb2007/pi20070228_476673.htm
Investing Q&A February 28, 2007, 12:00AM EST text size: TT
The China Meltdown: Reading the Charts
ビジネスウイーク：投資Ｑ＆Ａ：チャイナ・メルトダウン
After today's sell-off in China's stock market, how does the chart for the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund look now?
On a purely technical basis, we have broken below the 50-day exponential moving average
[a price average that smoothes the regular average by giving more weight to recent
data] and we have also broken key chart support [the price where most investors feel
that it will move higher] at 102. We have dropped to a couple of pieces of support that
are somewhat significant. The first one is a trend line drawn off the July and
September lows. And we have also retraced about 38.2% of the 70% rise that we saw in
the ETF from June 13 until Jan. 3, and both of those pieces of support come in around
the 97 area. The ETF is at 96.6 right now.
What's next?
I don't think the worst is over for this particular ETF. I think there's a good
possibility that the ultimate low will be around the 85 level, which would represent
a 27% decline from the all-time closing high on Jan. 3 of 116.4.
What do you see further down the road for China's market?
That's a difficult question. If we get down to the 85 level, the Chinese market could
go sideways for an extended period of three to six months. The reason for that is
anytime a market falls dramatically, it's very rare that it turns around quickly.
What's much more common after a dramatic drop is an index or individual stock will
move sideways for a number of months and put in a basing formation, or sideways action.
What does this decline signal for U.S. stocks?
I think what this says about the U.S. market is it has been somewhat clear that there
has been a high degree of speculation in global stock markets, and that a fast and
quick and dirty correction could take global markets down 5% to 10%. That would include
the U.S market.
I don't think this will lead to a bear market for the U.S. This is just a much needed
correction in an extremely overbought market. And once it's over, we will probably move
to new highs for the U.S market. I'm still positive on U.S. stocks for the longer term,
looking out to the end of the year.
|
|
|