For some reason I seem to be seeing a resurgence of inflation scare stories, despite the fact that — gas prices aside — inflation remains quiescent. And along with the scare stories come assertions that the inflation numbers are faked, that the government is hiding the true rate.So it’s time for another look at the Billion Prices Project, which uses internet price quotes to create an inflation measure completely independent of government agencies. It’s not a perfect match for the CPI, nor should it be. But the BPP index is just as quiescent as the official number. 若干の理由により、私はガス価格を除いてインフレは沈静しているにもかかわらず、インフレが進行しているというデマの復活を見ているように思う。 デマに伴い、インフレの数字は偽物で政府は本当の数字を隠していると断定できる。 だからBPPも見なくてはならないのだ。BPPは政府機関から完全に独立したインフレ指標を作るためネット上の商品価格の集積を使用している。 BPPは消費者物価指数に完全に合っていないし、合うべきでもまたない。 しかしBPP指標は公式の数字とまさに同じように不活発である。
I see that some people are saying, “But taxes discourage work!” Um, that’s what the supply curve in the figure measures; if taxes didn’t have any effect on work, it would be a vertical line.
のthat’s what the supply curve in the figure measures のところ、
The National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform (often called Bowles-Simpson/Simpson-Bowles from the names of co-chairs Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles; or NCFRR) is a Presidential Commission created in 2010 by President Barack Obama to identify "…policies to improve the fiscal situation in the medium term and to achieve fiscal sustainability over the long run."[1] The commission first met on April 27, 2010. A report was released on December 1, 2010,[3] but failed a vote on December 3 with 11 of 18 votes in favor, with a supermajority of 14 votes needed to formally endorse the blueprint. タイトルのBowles-Simpsonを理解するだけでもこれを読む必要がある。まあ勉強になるね。
今日のブログもまずPaul Ryanが何者か分らないと理解不能。 a member of the Republican Party and has been ranked among the party's most influential voices on economic policy で the chairman of the House Budget Committee, where he played a prominent public role in drafting and promoting the Republican Party's long-term budget proposalだそうだ。民主党に対する経済的批判を繰り広げている人物。
Meanwhile, just a quick note on the jobs report; not good, of course. You don’t want to overreact to one month ― but this shows the utter folly of all the talk about how it’s time to move from stimulus to tightening, time for the Fed to worry about inflation instead of jobs, and all that. We’re still very much in the Lesser Depression, and all our focus should be on getting out.
I often hear people saying that the experience of the 70s refuted the whole notion of a Phillips curve. No, it didn’t. What it did was show that unemployment wasn’t the only determinant of current inflation; expected future inflation is also crucial.
The reaction from many commentators was a howl of outrage. The president was being rude; he was being partisan; he was being a big meanie. Yet what he said about the Ryan proposal was completely accurate.
Just to be clear, I’m not ideologically opposed to the safe asset thing. I just wonder whether we aren’t violating Occam’s razor, adding stuff that the story doesn’t need.
ところで、マンキューもクルーグマンが引用したLarry Ballのpaperに 言及している。 There has been a lot of chatter lately about monetary policy under Ben Bernanke's leadership and how his Fed has dealt with the zero lower bound on interest rates.
Wow. A reader directs me to this interview with John Peet, the Europe editor of The Economist, who declares
And of the countries that were in trouble, I would say Ireland looks as if it’s the best at the moment because Ireland has implemented very heavy austerity programs, but is now beginning to grow again.
My best theory here is that it's political and sociological: conservative-leaning economists who should know better are driven by peer pressure to suppress their better instincts. Think about Greg Mankiw and inflation. Early on in the Lesser Depression Greg came out for inflation -- fairly high inflation! -- as the solution, to give us negative real interest rates. But he encountered a firestorm of criticism from his political allies -- and went silent. The point is that even among academics with tenure and established reputations, there is apparently enough leverage in the hands of the enforcers of right-wing orthodoxy that they end up bowing to the reign of error.
If you have any familiarity with the world, in short, you know that involuntary unemployment is very real. And it's currently a very big deal. How bad is the problem of involuntary unemployment, and how much worse has it become?
Second, even though Britain’s finances were in a worse state than those of most euro-zone countries, the policy of cutting the deficit has retained the support of investors―and thus helped keep bond rates low.
Apparently there are a number of people on the political right who have given up actually trying to refute what I say, and have turned to stupid pranks instead. クルーグマンに反論するのをあきらめた右翼がいやがらせをやってるらしい。 本人になりすましていろいろやるようだ。
映画の台詞 "Anyone who is willing to work and is serious about it will certainly find a job. Only you must not go to the man who tells you this, for he has no job to offer and doesn't know anyone who knows of a vacancy. This is exactly the reason why he gives you such generous advice, out of brotherly love, and to demonstrate how little he knows the world."
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What’s happening now is a “bank jog” ― Greeks are pulling euro deposits out of banks fairly rapidly, but not quite fast enough to be called a bank run.
The future of China’s export monster thus depends on whether China’s high investment rate is sustainable. Many think it is not. Economists like Paul Krugman, a professor at Princeton University and a commentator for the New York Times, have gone from bashing China for its underpriced currency to fretting about its overpriced property. http://www.economist.com/node/21555767/
Both books presented an adaptive-expectations Phillips curve, in which inflation depended both on the unemployment rate and on lagged inflation, which was supposed to determine expectations:Inflation rate = -α(u – NAIRU) + Lagged inflation rate where u was the unemployment rate and the NAIRU was the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment.And what did this approach predict about disinflation? It said that if policy makers were willing to impose a period of very high unemployment, they could bring inflation down — and that even if unemployment then fell back to the NAIRU, inflation would stay down.
>>171 これフィリップス曲線を補完した an adaptive-expectations Phillips curve の話なんだが Inflation rate = -α(u – NAIRU) + Lagged inflation rate でどうしてif policy makers were willing to impose a period of very high unemployment, they could bring inflation down — and that even if unemployment then fell back to the NAIRU, inflation would stay down. という結論になるのかいまいちわからない。 誰か解説して。
To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. [So] Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble.
So Econ 101 has done just fine – and perhaps more to the point, it has made successful predictions “out of sample”, that is, about what would happen under conditions very different from normal experience. This is the sort of thing that produces paradigm shifts in the hard sciences: light bends! Einstein is right!
この“out of sample”というのはどういう意味でしょうか? アインシュタインに続く文脈から考えると、 参考となる先行するサンプルなしに、うまく予測してきている。 というように読めますが、果たしてout of sampleはそのような意味になるのでしょうか?
One camp, led by some prominent economists, argues that central banks are not doing enough. These academic activists want them to embrace even bolder measures to boost demand, such as targeting temporarily higher inflation (which would reduce real borrowing costs and induce more spending) or using newly minted money to buy a broader range of assets, such as corporate bonds. They often cite the work of Ben Bernanke, the Fed’s chairman (pictured left): as an academic a decade ago, Mr Bernanke implored Japan’s central bank to be bolder. エコノミストだけどこれはクルーグマンのことだね。
Oh, boy. Economists have been studying business cycles for something like 90 years, and done comparisons to previous peaks all that time; apparently these guys don’t know about any of that.
It is not easy to derive supply and demand curves for an individual good from general equilibrium with rational consumers blah blah. And it’s definitely not easy to justify consumer and producer surplus as measures of welfare. And there have always been some purists who condemn any use of the S and D curves we all grew up with, the use of triangles to measure welfare loss, and all that.
the use of triangles to measure welfare loss これは、最低賃金や家賃規制のことかな?
Understanding why the administration's policies have stuck the economy in a slow-growth trap, we can explain how different economic ideas and choices can move us forward. The Romney economic program will change the direction of policy to focus on economic growth. Its pro-growth effects will work in two basic ways: It will speed up the recovery in the short run, and it will create stronger sustainable growth in the long run. ここまでについて論じましょう。
>>229 In fact, each year, the administration has forecast just such robust growth for the year ahead, and each time these hopes have been dashed. These repeated forecasts contradict the administrationís excuse that slow growth is the inevitable result of the recession and financial crisis. If a slow recovery were the predictable aftermath of a financial crisis, why has the administration continued to forecast a robust recovery?America took a wrong turn in economic policy in the past three years. The United States underperformed the historical norm shown in the administration's own forecasts, and its policies are to blame. To see why, we will explore the administration's economic errors and poor choices.
The problem addressed in this paper is a classic one: the optimal redistribution of income. A Utilitarian social planner would like to transfer resources from high-ability individuals to low-ability individuals, but he is constrained by the fact that he cannot directly observe ability. In conventional analysis, the planner observes only income, which depends on ability and e¤ort, and is deterred from the fully egalitarian outcome because taxing income discourages e¤ort. If the planners problem is made more realistic by allowing him to observe other variables correlated with ability, such as height, he should use those other variables in addition to income for setting optimal policy. Our calculations show that a Utilitarian social planner should levy a sizeable tax on height. A tall person making $50,000 should pay about $4,500 more in taxes than a short person making the same income.
On the contrary, selling domestic short-term debt and buying its foreign-currency counterpart is the essence of a sterilized foreign-exchange-market intervention, which is a time-honored way of gaining a competitive advantage and helping your economy expand.
the Fed is engaged in massive “quantitative easing” ― a misleading term, but I guess we’re stuck with it. What it basically means is that the Fed is selling Treasury bills or their equivalent (interest-paying excess bank reserves are essentially the same thing), while buying other assets, ・・・
QEの説明で、the Fed is selling Treasury bills or their equivalentとあり、 selling domestic short-term debtに対応していると思うのだが。
Woodward seems to believe that if we had a President more like Bill Clinton, a fiscal deal could have been struck. President Obama is described as disdainful of schmoozing with other pols, as mishandling the negotiation process, and as unwilling to move sufficiently toward the political center to get a deal done. One gets the sense that the Democratic President who signed the 1996 welfare reform would have more easily reached a compromise with House Republicans.
So my take is that the GOP was fated to have a weak candidate; that it was predictable that Ryan would be a liability, not an asset; and that anyone imagining that Romney can turn this around on Wednesday is hoping for a very unlikely event. ライアンなんてお荷物なだけだし、ロムニーが好転させるなんてまあ起こりっこないよ。相変わらず毒舌のクルーグマン。
Nate Silver gives Mitt Romney a 16 percent chance of winning, and gives Republicans a 22 percent chance of taking the Senate. A month is an eternity in politics, it ain’t over until it’s over, yada yada, but the main suspense right now is whether the Democrats can retake the House — I’m eagerly waiting for Nate’s take. ロムニー勝つ確率ってこんな低いの?
新しいブログでたけどThe National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform (often called Bowles-Simpson/Simpson-Bowles from the names of co-chairs Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles; or NCFRR) is a Presidential Commission created in 2010 by President Barack Obama.をしらないと理解不能。基礎知識ないときつい。
And it raises the Social Security retirement age because life expectancy has risen — completely ignoring the fact that life expectancy has only gone up for the well-off and well-educated, while stagnating or even declining among the people who need the program most.こういう統計あるのか?
From now on, in order to maintain standards on this forum, all comments are required to be written in English. You are not allowed to use any other languages and please bear in mind that this is not a translation forum. Thank you for your cooperation on this matter.
I doubt if anyone here can even describe in a concise manner what achievements made krugman a nobel laureate... Seriously is there any standards we should follow? This is obviously a thread for bunch of nitwits who can hardly write a correct sentence in english, duh!
this thread has a strict ENGLISH ONLY policy now if you are too brain dead to write proper english and have no choice but to stick to japanese, you are not welcomed here anymore you have to GO ELSEWHERE or, if you can read english, be a good LURKER
wow i'm a returnee now... kinda flattered though lol i'm babysitting my crazy brother-in-law from hell (also from england) so have no time for changing your diapers brain-damaged morons oh by the way i graduated from one of the universities rated "Aa" by... YOU! haha
この部分、どう訳しますか? > It will be a bitter irony if a pretty bad guy, with all the wrong motives, ends up doing the right thing economically, while all the good guys fail because they’re too determined to be, well, good guys. But that’s what happened in the 1930s, too … >
It’s hard now to recall the atmosphere of the time, but there was both an overpowering force of conventional wisdom — all the Very Serious People were for war, don’t you know, and if you were against you were by definition flaky — and a strong current of fear. To come out against the war, let alone to suggest that the Bush administration was deliberately misleading the nation into war, looked all too likely to be a career-ending stance. And there were all too few profiles in courage.
The coding error in Reinhart and Rogoff has gotten a lot more media attention than it deserves. Some people on the opposite side of the policy debate have taken advantage of this opportunity to pound the drum for their views. But just because someone in Team A makes an inadvertent excel error does not mean that everything Team B believes is true. To suggest otherwise would be a truly egregious mistake.
そのリンクにはこうある Economic history is the study of economies or economic phenomena in the past. 君が学説史が好きなら、きっとそのアカデミックな権威の世界地図をツバを 飛ばして語るのが好きなんだろうねwで、本来、執心すべきeconomic phenomena への興味は(偉大な経済学者とは正反対に)薄いわけだ。
But while R-R obviously had nothing to do with the start of the crisis, the question is how they played into the response. For the remarkable thing about this ongoing slump isn’t so much that we had a financial crisis as the fact that we responded to it, not by applying what macroeconomists thought they had learned, but by repeating all the policy errors of the 1930s. Again, fiscal policy from the IMF by year of the recession cycle:
In the end, all the corrections advocated by the critics shift the average GDP growth for very-high-debt nations to 2.2 percent, from a negative 0.1 percent in Reinhart and Rogoff’s original work. The finding remains that economic growth is lower in very-high-debt countries (see chart). It has been disappointing to watch those on the left seize on the embarrassing Excel errors but ignore this bigger picture.
原文 But while R-R obviously had nothing to do with the start of the crisis, the question is how they played into the response. For the remarkable thing about this ongoing slump isn’t so much that we had a financial crisis as the fact that we responded to it, not by applying what macroeconomists thought they had learned, but by repeating all the policy errors of the 1930s.
>目下の経済危機においては、起きてしまったことよりも、その対処に目を向けるべきである。
こんなことは書いてない。 this ongoing slump を目下の経済危機と訳すのは間違い。 the crisisはリーマンショック後の経済危機を示している。 現在この危機は一応脱している。 slump は不景気という意味であって経済危機(crisis)ではない。 Krugmanはリーマンショック後の経済危機(the crisis)に対して政府が行った対策を問題にしている。 彼はその対応が間違いだったおかげで現在の不景気(slump)が続いていると見ている。
Truly, we live in bizarro world. The stern taskmasters of the IMF are coming to Britain, to demand that the government live it up and spend more; the government, defiantly, will insist on continuing to impose suffering. IMFがイギリスに緊縮の緩和を要請するも信用の妖精を恐れ拒否。 時代はクルーグマンの方向に流れている。
この英文は入試の和訳問題に出てもいいような構文を含んでる。 Matthew O’Brien follows up on the hedge-fund-guys-who-hate Bernanke question, and points out that hedge funds have actually done quite badly for a decade, and especially since the crisis began. He also suggests that what the hedgies really hate isn’t Bernanke so much as the IS-LM framework he (and I) basically work in, and hate it all the more because it has worked so well.
Matthew O’Brien follows up on the hedge-fund-guys-who-hate Bernanke question, and points out that hedge funds have actually done quite badly for a decade, and especially since the crisis began. He also suggests that what the hedgies really hate isn’t Bernanke so much as the IS-LM framework he (and I) basically work in, and hate it all the more because it has worked so well.
Matthew O’Brienは、バーナンキの質問を嫌うヘッジファンド野郎どもの動向を追っていて、 この10年間――とくに危機がはじまって以降というもの――ヘッジファンドは超悪い成績しかあげてないことを指摘している。 また彼は、ヘッジ野郎たちが本当に嫌いなのはバーナンキというよりむしろバーナンキ(と僕)が基本的に利用している IS-LMという仕組みであり、そいつがこれまで上手く機能してきたものだからそれだけ一層嫌ってるということをほのめかしてもいるんだ。
As far as I know, among basic textbooks only Krugman/Wells even talks about the liquidity trap; certainly we were the only one talking about it before 2008. 重要なのはcertainly we were the only one talking about it before 2008.の部分だ。 Liquidity trap理論の正当性の公的認証におけるクルーグマンの功績は文句のつけようがない。
Some economists describe this situation as a liquidity trap. According to the theory of liquidity preference, expansionary monetary policy works by reducing interest rates and stimulating investment spending. But if interest rates have already fallen almost to zero, then perhaps monetary policy is no longer effective. Nominal interest rates cannot fall below zero: Rather than making a loan at a negative nominal interest rate, a person would just hold cash. In this environment, expansionary monetary policy raises the supply of money, making the public’s asset portfolio more liquid, but because interest rates can't fall any further, the extra liquidity might not have any effect. Aggregate demand, production, and employment may be "trapped" at low levels.
>>495 Some economists describe this situation as a liquidity trap. According to the theory of liquidity preference, expansionary monetary policy works by reducing interest rates and stimulating investment spending. But if interest rates have already fallen almost to zero, then perhaps monetary policy is no longer effective. Nominal interest rates cannot fall below zero: Rather than making a loan at a negative nominal interest rate, a person would just hold cash. In this environment, expansionary monetary policy raises the supply of money, making the public’s asset portfolio more liquid, but because interest rates can't fall any further, the extra liquidity might not have any effect. Aggregate demand, production, and employment may be "trapped" at low levels.
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It's not difficult to write grammatically correct and natural sentences in English. You just borrow sentences written by educated native speakers of English and modify them appropriately. You can find them by searching a corpus, novels, and so forth.
The one who should be ashamed here is you, not me. If you lack the ability to comprehend what I wrote, how could you ever think that you can point out the flaws in them?
Why don't you just give me some detailed reasons to support your claim that translating English into Japanese is a stupid thing to do? I hope you won't chicken out.
>>583の定義 pursue or investigate something further (何かをさらに追求または検討する) を例に取ると、 pursue 〜 further の中には、「ふたたび問題として話題にする」ことも含まれるんだよ。 だから、777の>>578の「〜問題を再び取り上げ〜」という訳でなんら問題ない。 777を特別擁護したいわけじゃないが。
follow up on the question と言えば、その問題について、 更なる検証を加えるって感じなんだよね 間違いとは言えないけど、単に再び話題にする、と言うと、 ちょっとニュアンス違うんだよね けど、最初約した人の「バーナンキの質問を嫌う」という部分は明らかに違うし、 後から訳した人の方か正確だと思うよ
A popular image of Tokugawa Ieyasu is that he was a shrewd tactician. However, he was only so in his later years. He was so naively honest in his youth and middle age that even his allies called him "richigimono", a loyal man.
You have a gloomy image of pawnshops, don't you? But today they are totally different from what they used to be. It's ancient history that you sneakily brought your precious kimono wrapped in furoshiki there.
The Japanese-style hotel had a very large hot spring with a splendid view. The food was also very satisfactory. However, the service was a little letdown.
You are prohibited , except for uses in the lecture, from using or copying the materials or the storage media containing confidential information of the company or anything regarded as such, and requested to return them immediately after the lecture is over.
Elementary, My Dear Watanabe-san (Somewhat Wonkish)で昨日の日経暴落の解読 (和訳不要)
So to the extent that this wasn’t just markets doing their occasional panic thing, it looks like a sudden outbreak of concern about whether the Bank of Japan has really changed as much as it seems.
The impact of expected future monetary policy on long-term interest rates is ambiguous — rates might rise because they expect the BoJ to tighten, or fall because they fear that it will fail to end deflation. But worry about the BoJ’s resolve should have a clear impact on the yen, which should strengthen — which it did.
Fears about the resolution of the Bank of Japan, its willingness to persist in very expansionary monetary policy for a long time.
The impact of expected future monetary policy on long-term interest rates is ambiguous — rates might rise because they expect the BoJ to tighten, or fall because they fear that it will fail to end deflation. But worry about the BoJ’s resolve should have a clear impact on the yen, which should strengthen — which it did.
Elementary, My Dear Watanabe-san (Somewhat Wonkish)
OK, sorry about the bad translingual joke. But I thought it might be interesting to try doing a bit of deductive analysis on the sudden 7 percent plunge in the Nikkei.
Elementary, My Dear Watanabe-sanは、シャーロック・ホームズのElementary, My Dear Watosonにかけてると思われ sorry about bad translingual joke.は、コナン・ドイルに引っ掛けてみたんだけどイマイチだった?wって感じ deductiveはdetective(story)とかけられてるかもね
I fairly often receive mail pleading with me to take a more even tone, to have a respectful discussion with people on the other side rather than calling them fools and knaves.
fools and knavesにはルーカスも含まれるのかな? マンキューのことは曲学阿世と罵っていたが。
ところで、 So Roy has to know that he’s making an essentially fraudulent argument ― and does it anyway.
But to cut to the chase, Roy claims that Obamacare will cause soaring insurance rates, using a comparison that is completely fraudulent ― and I say fraudulent, not wrong, because he is indeed enough of a policy wonk here to know that he is pulling a fast one.
この文章の he is indeed enough of a policy wonk here to know that he is pulling a fast one. の意味が良くわかりません。
But to cut to the chase, Roy claims that Obamacare will cause soaring insurance rates, using a comparison that is completely fraudulent ― and I say fraudulent, not wrong, because he is indeed enough of a policy wonk here to know that he is pulling a fast one.
In their letter to Mr Krugman they acknowledge that research is mixed on whether higher debt leads to slow growth or vice versa, long the key criticism of their work. They continue to argue for cautious, proactive debt-reduction. But they say they favour writing down bank debt, slightly higher inflation and “financial repression” (imposing lower real returns on creditors) over immediate austerity.
Those policies are much more to Mr Krugman’s liking. Yet their letter pointedly does not aim to mend fences (it is doubtful Mr Krugman would be interested).
The basic point is that a higher baseline for inflation would make liquidity traps, in which conventional monetary policy is up against the zero lower bound, less likely and less costly when they happen.
Old lawyer Tifton, GA I never heard of derpy so I looked it up. It didn't appear to offer a good description of the current conservatives so I looked for a synonym for anti-intellectualism and found the word obscurant.
Tim KaneMesa, Arizona
Can I get some help here? What is "Derp", and "Derpyness" and when did it become a word. I really out of the loop on this.
derp (third-person singular simple present derps, present participle derping, simple past and past participle derped) 1.To act stupid or foolish 2.To make a stupid mistake [quotations ▼] 3.(of eyes) To point in different directions; (of a person) To have a facial expression with one's eyes pointing in different directions. [quotations ▼]
>>766 There were informal assurances early in the crisis, and everyone takes it for granted that any losses that exceed the interest the Fed normally turns over would be made whole.
This isn’t a new argument, nor is it way out there; it’s been made by many people, including the chief economist of the IMF. Yet Draghi talks as if low inflation is no problem, that only deflation is an issue.
But we’re not done. The other inflation-related issue is downward nominal wage rigidity, and to some extent downward nominal price rigidity.
There were informal assurances early in the crisis, and everyone takes it for granted that any losses that exceed the interest the Fed normally turns over would be made whole.
our expectations argument is a hope と、hopeという語で表現する一方、 緊縮派についてはthe supposed rise in confidenceと表現しており、この時点でも違いがよくわからないが、
次の段落では、緊縮派について、 The austerians, on the other hand, have pushed directly destructive policies ― fiscal contraction in depressed economies ― in order to achieve their hoped-for shift in expectations. と、their hoped-for shift in expectationsと言い換えている。
hope と、their hoped-for shift in expectationsの中のhoped-forにはどのような違いがあるのだろう? この辺は、ネイティブでなければ感得できない語感の差があるのか?
those of us hoping to summon the expectations imp want to do so with policies that are at worst harmless, such as expanding the monetary base under conditions where this has no direct inflationary impact.
So in a way we’ve had the worst of all possible worlds: the alleged prospect of becoming another Greece has been used by austerians to frighten politicians and the public into policies that deepen the slump, and the mishandling of Greece — by many of the same people spreading this fear — has made the prospect of becoming another Greece even more frightening.
(Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday the U.S. economy is expanding strongly enough for the central bank to begin slowing the pace of its bond-buying stimulus later this year.
what the traffic will bear 現状{げんじょう}で[現実的{げんじつ てき}に]可能{かのう}な[許される]範囲{はんい}[最大限{さいだいげん}]のもの ・Charging what [whatever, all] the traffic will bear is unethical. : 可能な限り高い価格を設定するというのは道義に反する。
reductio ad absurdum (mathematics, logic) The method of proving a statement by assuming the statement is false and, with that assumption, arriving at a blatant contradiction. 帰謬法。議論倒れ 《ある考えが間違っていることを,それがいかにばかばかしい結果になるかを示して証明すること》.
So, on the general principle that if I am not for myself, who will be for me: that left-wing rag the Wall Street Journal has a new assessment, based on some supposedly objective criteria (but not including Twitter followers) of the most influential business thinkers. They see a big change since the last time they did this, five years ago…This time, the top thinkers are:
1.Paul Krugman 2. Joseph Stiglitz 3. Bill Gates 4. Michael Porter 5. Thomas Friedman 6. Eric Schmidt 7. Richard Branson 8. Malcolm Gladwell 9. Robert Reich 10. Jack Welch 11. Muhammad Yunus 12. Niall Ferguson 13. Michael Dell 14. Howard Gardner 15. Jimmy Wales
One of the odd things about the people arguing that we must raise interest rates to head off bubbles ― Raghuram Rajan, Martin Feldstein, the BIS, and so on ― is the near-universal assertion among this group that just a little rate increase can’t do any real harm. (Just a thin little mint). After all, rates are so low!
Among the points in the complex agreement: subject to the court’s approval, the secured creditors will each receive a pro-rated share of the new equity, the new debt, and excess cash. (The debtors plan to come out of bankruptcy with fewer than 2,000 holders of new equity and fewer than 500 holders of new equity that are not “accredited investors,” so as not to be subject to the reporting requirements of the Securities Exchange Act.) Unsecured creditors will be paid on a pro-rated basis from what’s left, according to a “priority waterfall.” The agreement also provides for a new term loan of up to $1.5 billion and a new first-out revolving credit agreement of no less than $250 million and up to $400 million. A percentage of new equity equal to $75 million is allocated for the implementation of a market-level management and director equity incentive program.
Worth Publishers alerted us to this story, partly to reassure us that Krugman/Wells royalties will continue on schedule. And I have absolutely no comment to make:
Cengage Learning Inc. filed for bankruptcy protection more than five years after a buyout led by Apax Partners LLP left the textbook publisher with about $5.8 billion in debt.
Greg Mankiw, a Harvard University professor who advised Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is owed $1.6 million in royalties, according to the bankruptcy filing.
We’ve just seen how much damage even a hint of Fed hawkishness can do; it’s really critical to not follow the far worse step of making an appointment that gives the wrong signal.
But there’s nothing like Abenomics, an effort to boost the economy by fundamentally changing inflation expectations, on anyone’s agenda ― at least not yet. (Give us a lost decade or two, and that may change). http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/31/for-the-birds/
なんか違和感があるな。 バーナンキもふくめ、期待への働きかけを重視しているだろう。
かねてよりクルーグマンが批判しているように、それが明確ではないということだが、 その点は我がアベノミクスだってバーナンキと同等なんだから、 there’s nothing like Abenomics とは言えないと思う。
While I’m at it, a note to loyal readers: I know that my output has been a bit low this week; that’s because of family matters that among other things have me on the road.
Look, maybe Japan can sustain growth in the face of this tax increase. But maybe not. Why not wait until growth is firmly established, and in particular until expected deflation has been solidly replaced with expected inflation?
It’s just foolish to endanger progress on that front in the name of fiscal responsibility.
Yes, Japan is going to need more revenue, eventually. But reflation should come first. It’s a really bad sign that this is even being discussed right now.
I’m being a bit flip here, but as I read this we start with a credibility argument; when there turns out to be an easy way to deal with that problem, it’s rejected because that would undermine credibility. I keep looking for something fundamental, but right now it looks like turtles all the way down.
The proximate cause is the financial crisis and the overhang of debt left behind by the bubble, but the reason we’re so vulnerable to getting into this position ― the reason we tend to be in a liquidity trap whenever we don’t have a bubble inflating ― is, or at least that’s what we’re arguing, the generally low ★natural real interest rate, aka secular stagnation.
「換言すれば、よくみられる債務水準の上昇に関する懸念、つまり、 「我々は負債を返済するため、結局は財政を無利子の巨額黒字の状態に継続的に 置く必要がある」という考えは、まったくもって誤りである。 As long as we ★run a primary (non-interest) balance ★基礎的財政収支における債務比率(実際にはそれほど債務が過大と言えないそれ)を 現状のまま保つことができれば、 政府債務の国内総生産(GDP)比は、時間の経過とともに、徐々に低下するのである。 さらに言えば、負債の増大でさえも、手に負えないような負債スパイラルを引き起こすことは ないだろう。 ★負債水準が徐々に高まることにはつながるが、その水準で保たれるだけのことだ。」