【政治経済】平成床屋談義 町の噂その562
ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/672d7028-5b83-11e3-a2ba-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz2mMOi6STk
China must not copy the Kaiser’s errors
By Martin Wolf December 3, 2013 6:47 pm
中国はWWI当時のドイツと同じ過ちを犯すべきではない マーチン・ウルフ FT
＊FTの論説主幹であるマーチン・ウルフが中国のADIZをめぐる論争について書いている
もので、現在の状況は些細な事故が大国間の戦争につながったWWI当時の対立に似てい
るという。マーチン・ウルフはリアリストなので、緊張緩和のための対話をとか、そう
いうお題目で（お念仏で）お茶を濁すような議論はしていなくて、とても単純明快に、
紛争が起これば、ましてや戦争が起これば、中国にとって不利なので、止めたほうが良
いと書いている。中国が止めたほうが良い理由は：
（１）軍事的紛争、戦争となれば中国は日米連合にかなわない
Military experts assume that in a head-on conflict China would lose. While
its economy has grown dramatically, it is still smaller than that of the US,
let alone of the US and Japan together. Above all, the US still controls the
seas.
（２）紛争、戦争となれば中国の被る経済的被害が日米よりはるかに大きい
If open conflict arrived, the US could cut off the world’s trade with
China. It could also sequester a good part of China’s liquid foreign assets.
The economic consequences would be devastating for the world, but they would,
almost certainly, be worse for China than for the US and its allies.
Being resource poor, China depends on imports of a host of vital raw materials.
While advancing rapidly in its technological skills, the country is far more
dependent on foreign knowhow and inward foreign direct investment than the
rest of the world is on China’s skills. A conflict could force many western
and Japanese companies to pull out and go somewhere viewed as safer. Its
foreign currency reserves, equal to 40 per cent of GDP are, by definition,
held abroad. Much, then, would be put at risk. (See charts.)
China must not copy the Kaiser’s errors
By Martin Wolf December 3, 2013 6:47 pm
中国はWWI当時のドイツと同じ過ちを犯すべきではない マーチン・ウルフ FT
＊FTの論説主幹であるマーチン・ウルフが中国のADIZをめぐる論争について書いている
もので、現在の状況は些細な事故が大国間の戦争につながったWWI当時の対立に似てい
るという。マーチン・ウルフはリアリストなので、緊張緩和のための対話をとか、そう
いうお題目で（お念仏で）お茶を濁すような議論はしていなくて、とても単純明快に、
紛争が起これば、ましてや戦争が起これば、中国にとって不利なので、止めたほうが良
いと書いている。中国が止めたほうが良い理由は：
（１）軍事的紛争、戦争となれば中国は日米連合にかなわない
Military experts assume that in a head-on conflict China would lose. While
its economy has grown dramatically, it is still smaller than that of the US,
let alone of the US and Japan together. Above all, the US still controls the
seas.
（２）紛争、戦争となれば中国の被る経済的被害が日米よりはるかに大きい
If open conflict arrived, the US could cut off the world’s trade with
China. It could also sequester a good part of China’s liquid foreign assets.
The economic consequences would be devastating for the world, but they would,
almost certainly, be worse for China than for the US and its allies.
Being resource poor, China depends on imports of a host of vital raw materials.
While advancing rapidly in its technological skills, the country is far more
dependent on foreign knowhow and inward foreign direct investment than the
rest of the world is on China’s skills. A conflict could force many western
and Japanese companies to pull out and go somewhere viewed as safer. Its
foreign currency reserves, equal to 40 per cent of GDP are, by definition,
held abroad. Much, then, would be put at risk. (See charts.)
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