China’s cash crunch deepened on Wednesday after the central bank withheld funding from the financial system, putting pressure on overextended lenders. 中国の中央銀行PBOCは水曜日にもキャッシュ・クランチに対応した流動性注入を行わず 一部金融機関の(シャドーバンキングなどの)過剰な貸出に対する圧力を高めている
Short-term interbank rates jumped more than 200 basis points, setting a record high at nearly 8 per cent for loans of one month or less, the latest indication of how credit has suddenly become very tight in China. 短期のインターバンク金利は200bp以上高騰し、1ヶ月未満のローンに対して8%と史上 最高を記録した。最近の中国の信用引き締めの急速な動きは注目される
The main reason for the tightness has been the central bank’s reluctance to pump liquidity in to the money market, wrongfooting banks that had expected Beijing would support them with large cash injections, as it had regularly done before. Signalling that the cash crunch could persist for a while, the China Securities Journal, a major state-run newspaper, ran a front-page commentary saying China was at a turning point in monetary policy. “We cannot use as fast money supply growth as in the past, or even faster, to promote economic growth,” the newspaper said. “This means that authorities must control the pace of money supply growth.” 一部金融機関はキャッシュ・クランチに対応して中央銀行が流動性を注入するものと 期待していたが、中央銀行はそれを拒んでいる。クランチが長引きそうな見込みであ る中、中国政府の広報誌である証券ジャーナルは第一ページに中国のマネタリ政策が
“The only explanation is that the central bank wants to send a warning signal to commercial banks and other credit issuers that unchecked credit expansion, particularly through the shadow banking system, will not be accommodated,” said Na Liu with CNC Asset Management. CNCアセットマネジメントのNa Liuは「中央銀行の行動の唯一可能な説明は、中央銀行 が銀行や金融機関に対して無制限の信用拡大を許さないという警告メッセージを発して いるというものだ。特にシャドーバンキングシステムについて、それを承認しないとい うものだ」という。
Overall credit growth in China has reached about 22-23 per cent this year, up from 20 per cent in 2012, after a surge in ‘shadow’ lending by trust companies and by banks through off-balance-sheet vehicles. Wang Tao, an economist with UBS, said the central bank’s goal might be to bring credit growth down to about 17-18 per cent, to limit the leverage that has built up in the economy. 今年の中国のクレジットの拡大は22−23%に達している。此れは2012年の20%を超えて いる。それはシャドーバンキングのオフ・バランスシートの金融ビークルによる貸出が 増加しているためである。UBSのエコノミストであるWang Taoは、中央銀行の目標はクレ ジットの拡大を17−18%以下に抑えることかもしれないという。
The central bank has many tools to add liquidity to the market if needed, from injecting short-term cash to lower lenders’ required reserves. However, Ms Wang warned that the consequences of the regulatory tightening were harder to predict because of the growing complexity of Chinese financial markets.“A liquidity crunch could happen unexpectedly somewhere,” she said. “There could be a disorderly deleveraging in the interbank market.”
The Chinese economy slowed to 7.7 per cent growth year-on-year in the first quarter from 7.9 per cent in the final quarter of 2012, and many analysts expect a further slowdown in the second quarter. Wang Taoは引き締めの影響を予測することが困難だという。「流動性クランチは予想 外にどこかで起こり得る。インターバンク市場に無秩序なデレバレッジが起こるとか」 中国経済の成長は昨年4Qの7.9%が今年1Qの7.7%に鈍化している。多くのアナリス トは(金融引締めによって)2Qはさらに減速すると予想している。
The growing pile of bearishness on China continues. Last night, Chinese stocks hit a new 6-month, as concerns rise about growth, debt, acute financial market stress, a property bubble, and everything else. Today, HSBC has significantly slashed Chinese growth. The bank's chief economist Stephen King tweeted the news: 中国経済への弱気の見通しが続いている。昨日は成長鈍化や負債、金融市場のストレス、 不動産バブル、その他を嫌気して6ヶ月来の安値を付けた。今日はHSBCの主任エコノミス トであるStephen Kingがつぶやいていることに:
Stephen King @KingEconomist HSBC cuts China growth forecasts to 7.4% in '13 & '14 (from 8.2% and 8.4%) as Beijing focuses on supply reforms instead of demand stimulus. HSBCは中国経済の成長予測を(以前の8,4%、8,2%から)引き下げ7.4%とした。 中国政府は経済の振興策ではなく、サプライの改革を目指している
As widely remarked upon, however, that came with the creation of a large number of lower wage and part- or flex-time jobs for the German workforce, and of jobs without the full benefits and protections of earlier postwar generations. Only in the last year has a wage increase exceeded the combination of inflation and productivity growth?that is, rewarded German workers in line with the worth of their labors. Germany has internally devalued its way to competitiveness. ここで言っているのはシュローダー政権の末期の労働規制改革でそれまで禁止に 近かったパートやフレックスの就業が認められ広まった余波で労務費が国内的に 切り下げられて国際競合力が高まった、という話(ただしこの切り下げが失業率 の大幅低下と裏腹な関係があって・・)
しかし、そういう事情に依る競争力で支えられたとはいえ現在のドイツ経済は経 済成長を高めるための投資が不足し生産性の増加が停滞気味だと批判 Yet, total gross fixed investment has been steadily declining in Germany, from 24 percent to under 18 percent of GDP annually, between 1991 and the present. Even the unemployment miracle was not enough to induce German businesses to invest as much as their competitors. As the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) points out in its just released Economic Survey [pdf] of Germany, this has been well below the investment rate of the rest of the G-7 economies since 2001, which has fluctuated between 19 and 21 percent despite their crises of the last four years (and so the difference is not due to the mid-2000s Anglo-Saxon bubbles).
何時も鋭く、意味深く、先見性のあるピーター・タスカの評論、FT掲載 最近の為替と株式の乱高下でアベノミクスの問題云々とかいう日本国内の議論があるけ れど、昨年11月半ばから今年3月までの驚異的な為替と株式の改善の後で調整は当然で、 そういうものが無ければ不自然という。日本経済にとって今必要なことは、更に断固決然 たるBoJの緩和政策推進である、という。大変興味深い。 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c51be10a-d65f-11e2-b03f-00144feab7de.html#axzz2WebgUVsv MARKETS INSIGHT June 19, 2013 9:08 am Markets Insight: Never mind Abegeddon, Japan needs more medicine By Peter Tasker The problem remains yen strength, not weakness アベノミクス破綻論や狂気論は放置、必要なのは、より多くの治療薬である By ピーター・タスカ
(最近のボラタイルな為替と株式についてアベノミクス失敗論とか危険論とかそういうの があるが) Yet surely it is much too early for the soil to be falling into the grave of Abenomics. No stock market can carry on rising at the rate of 10 per cent a month, as the Japanese market had done between mid-November and mid-May. No major currency can continue plummeting at the rate that the yen did over the same period. The reaction, when it came, had to match the dynamics of the preceding action. 失敗云々というのは、あまりに時期尚早であって、どんな時にも株式が毎月10%上昇する といったことが続くはずはなくて、日本株式は昨年11月中旬から今年3月までそういう状況 であったけれど、また為替相場についても急速な円安が進んだけれど、これらの急激な変化 にリアクションが発生するのは当然である。
From the start there was precious little euphoria about Mr Abe and his policies. One prestigious British magazine announced his election triumph in tones of the darkest foreboding, suggesting the political stability of the entire region was imperilled. Some domestic commentary has been worse. Japan’s equivalent of The Sun has been splashing headlines about the “insanity” of Abenomics from day one.
Even within the investment community, some viewed the sharp rise in shares and decline in the yen not as welcome signs of successful reflation, but as omens of disaster. Proponents of the “Abegeddon” thesis ? which calls for an explosion in government bond yields and a currency collapse of Zimbabwean proportions ? have been more vocal than ever. 経済論壇の中でさえ一部の論者は円安株高はリフレ政策の成功ではなくて、行く先に有る 破綻の凶兆であるという。このての「アベノ破綻論(Abegeddon)」では日本国債の金利の 爆発的上昇、さらにはジンバブエ型の通貨の破滅的減価がおこるというのだが、(最近の ボラタイルな市場のために)そういう声は以前にもまして大きくなっている。 (中略) The stock market greeted Abenomics with unambiguous approval, but it is important to remember the depths to which it had sunk. Even now the Topix index is flirting with 40-year lows relative to the S&P index in common currency. If investors were to get as bullish about Mr Abe as they were about ex-prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, the Japanese market would need to outperform the US by 70 per cent in dollar terms. 株式市場がアベノミクスを疑いもなく評価したことは事実なのだが、しかしここで重要で あることは、日本の株式市場が、かくも深く長く海面下に沈んでいた事である。現時点で さえTopixを共通通貨でS&P500指標と比較すれば、依然としてそれは40年来の安値に在る。 もし投資家が、以前の小泉首相当時のように安倍首相について強気になるのであれば、日 本市場はドルベースで米国市場を70%アウトパーフォームする必要がある。
Already there are signs of life in the real economy: consumer confidence has soared to multiyear highs and profit momentum, almost uniquely in today’s world, is strongly positive. Yet these improvements are fragile. If the recent correction in markets were to morph into a full-scale retracement, the wheels would come off Mr Abe’s entire project.
The reason is that asset values are the key transmission mechanism for moving Japan from long, lingering balance sheet recession to potential balance sheet boom. 何故かといえば、資産価値というのは日本経済を長期のバランスシート不況からバランス シート好況に変える鍵であるから。
If over the next two years the equity market returned to its levels of 2006-07 (not absurd as corporate earnings will achieve new highs this year), real estate prices rose 15 per cent and the yen stabilised in the 100-110 band against the dollar, the total increase in the national “shareholders’ equity” would be equivalent to 100 per cent of GDP. Japan’s net government debt is about 170 per cent of GDP, so this would constitute a dramatic improvement. Capital losses in the bond market would be trivial in comparison. 今後2年で日本株式が2007−7年当時に戻るのであれば、不動産価格は15%上昇しドル円は 100−110のレベルで日本株式の株主資本(shareholders’ equity)はGDPに等しくなる。 日本国家の負債はGDPの170%になって、これらは劇的な改善といえる。国債市場の資本の 損失は、メリットに比較して僅少であろう。
If Japanese assets were overvalued, that would be a dangerous manoeuvre. However, the Topix index is barely above its 50 year moving average ? meaning that someone who had been averaging into the market since the era of JFK would be sitting on a capital loss. And a recent study by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development concluded that Japanese house prices were the most undervalued in the 27 countries covered. もし日本の資産が既に過大評価であれば、リフレ政策の金融緩和は危険であろうけれど Topix指標は50年移動平均で見て辛うじて上にある程度である。最近のOECD報告は日本の 住宅価格が27ヶ国中で最も過小評価だと言っている。
So what should be done? Whatever it takes, is the answer. Far from Abegeddon erupting, inflationary expectations are subsiding and the problem remains yen strength, not weakness. In other words, the markets are questioning whether the Bank of Japan has done enough. The solution is to be more aggressive. This can be done by front-loading the schedule for bond purchases or by buying substantial amounts of Topix exchange traded funds, a policy initiated by the BoJ’s former governor, Masaaki Shirakawa. では何をなすべきか? 答えは有効な手段ならなんでもOK。アベノ破綻論の言うような レベルどころかインフレ期待の不足が円の強さ理由である。別の言葉で言えば市場はBoJ が十分に仕事をしたかを疑っている。解決策はより積極的な緩和である。それは国債買取 の前倒しや株式ファンドを買うことで達成できる。その政策は白川総裁によって始められ ているのだが。
To adapt The Smiths again, an economy in deflationary stagnation is a bit like a girlfriend in a coma. It’s really serious. Strong medicine is needed for the patient to pull through. スミス氏の流儀で言えばデフレでスタグナントな経済というのは昏睡状態のガールフレン ドに似ているところがあって、とても深刻だ。患者の状態を好転させるには強い薬も必要 なのだ。
Chinese economic data for May disappointed markets, and analysts have been lowering their GDP forecasts. “The HSBC China Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped to a nine-month low of 48.3 in June, following on the sequential reduction in both production and demand, wrote HSBC's Hongbin Qu in a press release.
"Manufacturing sectors are weighed down by deteriorating external demand, moderating domestic demand and rising destocking pressures. Beijing prefers to use reforms rather than stimulus to sustain growth. While reforms can boost long-term growth prospects, they will have a limited impact in the short term. As such we expect slightly weaker growth in 2Q.”
An expansion in the inventory of finished goods, albeit at a slower rate, is also worrisome as China continues to cope with an excess capacity problem. Here's a look at the trajectory of headline PMI
ttp://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130620-702453.html?mod=googlenews_wsj The cash crunch, which started two weeks ago with a surge in the rates at which banks lend each other money, has forced Chinese banks to scramble to raise funds by offering higher returns to investors. The seven-day repo rate, the benchmark rate for funding costs between banks, surged to 12.33% Thursday afternoon from the 8.26% rate at Wednesday's close. It had averaged around 3.30% this year before the liquidity crunch began at the end of last month. "Now cost is not a consideration any longer because it's very difficult to raise money in the situation now," said Zhou Hao, an economist at ANZ Bank in Shanghai. 中国の金融システムのキャッシュ・クランチは2週間前に始まりインターバンク市場 の流動性が枯渇している。7日ものレポレートは水曜日の8,26%が木曜日に12.33% となった。今年のインターバンク市場の平均金利は先月末に3.3%であった。 ANZ銀行の上海のエコノミストZhou Haoは「こうした状況では資金を入手することが 大変困難なので、そのコストは最早問題ではない」という。
The cash crunch stems from a number of factors. China's slowdown has led to a slowdown in foreign-capital inflows, which adds money to the system. And the new regulations on foreign currency lending, which require banks to hold more foreign exchange, reduced the central bank's foreign exchange purchases by more than anticipated. キャッシュクランチの原因は複数あって、中国経済の成長減速から外資の資本流入が 減少し、市場の流動性が減少している。更に政府の外貨貸付の新規規制が導入され銀 行がより多くの外貨を留保する必要を起こしている。それは中央銀行の外貨買い入れ を予想以上に減少させている。 (中略) Still, it's too early to say that there will be a Lehman Brothers-like crisis in the Chinese banking system, analysts say. しかしこの事態が中国の銀行システムにリーマン事件のような危機を持たらすかどうか を論じるのは時期尚早とアナリストは言う
Surges in interbank rates that last a few days haven't been unusual in China, but the Chinese central bank usually responds rapidly by injecting liquidity if rates rise sharply. But by allowing rates to remain elevated for so long, the People's Bank of China is sending a message that banks need to put their own houses in order. インターバンク市場で金利が高騰する事は中国では異常とも言えないが従来は中央銀行 が流動性を注入して急速に金利を引き下げてきた。今回のように金利の高止まりを放置 していることは中央銀行がメッセージを発していることに成って銀行が融資の整理をす べしというものであろう
"Behind this we suspect lies a ratcheting up of policymakers' concerns about credit. One particular worry is the reliance of smaller and medium-sized banks on interbank borrowing to sustain lending," said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economist said in a note. キャピタルエコノミストの主任エコノミストであるMark Williamsは「この現象の背後 にあることは、政府のクレジット増大に対する政策であろう。中小の銀行が融資の継続 のためインターバンク市場に過度に依存している事を憂慮しているのだろう」という。
For smaller banks, wealth management products, high-yielding substitutes for deposits, have been an important source of interbank liquidity. "By standing pat, I think the PBOC is forcing banks to sharply reduce the size of their off-balance-sheet assets, and raise the transparency of their businesses," said Mr. Zhou at ANZ. 中小銀行は預金の代わりにハイイールドの金融商品で資金を集めていてインターバンク 市場の流動性の重要なソースであった。AN銀行のMr. Zhouは「私の推測は中央銀行が銀 行に対して、オフ・バランスシートの資産を急速に縮小せよ、そしてビジネスの透明性 を高めよ、という強制をしていると思う」(後略) June 20, 2013, 4:22 a.m. ET Chinese Banks Extend Losses Hit by Liquidity Crunch WSJ
グローバル市場の現状について、FTの市場短観(THE SHORT VIEW) -------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/73b3ee58-d9c9-11e2-bab1-00144feab7de.html#axzz2WebgUVsv June 20, 2013 9:22 pm Carry trade is carried off the field By James Mackintosh High-yielding currencies are biggest losers against the dollar キャリートレードの全般的な巻き戻し By James Mackintosh
Bank runs occur when the fear of losing capital outweighs the greed for the interest rate on offer. Government guarantees rendered runs rare, but the same principle applies to the biggest bets investors have been making: “carry trades”, where borrowed money is put into a currency with a higher interest rate or into longer-dated bonds (or both). The carry trade is now being carried off the field. Wednesday’s comments from Ben Bernanke, US Federal Reserve chairman, suggested the economy is stronger than most thought. But the prospect of rising US rates make foreign yields less appealing, and the emerging market sell-off turned into a rout.
The carry trade might be seen as a special case of the hunt for yield. However, this is also unwinding. Emerging market bonds had their second-worst day since the aftermath of Lehman’s collapse, junk bonds sold off and the US equity market sectors hit hardest were those with the highest dividends: telecoms, consumer staples and utilities. キャリー・トレードというのは特殊な金利差を狙う取引と思うかもしれないけれど、 しかしながら同じメカニズムで巻き戻しが起こっている分野がある。途上国の国債は リーマン・ショックにつぐ売り浴びせにあい、ジャンクボンドも同じで、米国株式の 中でも配当の多いセクターが売られていて、テレコム、生活必需品、電気ガス水道な どである。
No one knows how far this will go. Emerging market sell-offs have a nasty habit of turning into something like a bank run. This time might be different, as emerging countries have huge foreign exchange reserves, which can replace fleeing hot money (India and Brazil intervened yesterday). But those reserves are held in safe bonds in the developed world. The more investors flee from emerging markets, the more selling pressure there could be on western bonds. 今起こっている巻戻しが何処までゆくのか誰も知らない。途上国市場の売り浴びせと いうのは銀行の取り付け騒ぎと同じような拙い事件だ。ただし従来とは異なって途上 国が今は外貨を多く準備しているのでホットマネーの流出に抗することが出来るかも しれない。(ブラジルとインドは昨日介入している)しかしそれらの外貨準備は先進 国の安全な国債の形で保有されているので途上国からの資本流失は先進国の国債の売 りに繋がるかもしれない。
Are the PBoC’s efforts part of a broader political shift? 中国の中央銀行(PBOC)の政策転換は、政治的なシフトの一部なのか?
To get a good sense of this, it’s worth reading in full this report by the FT’s Simon Rabinovitch, in Beijing. But here’s a few choice excerpts: その答えとして、FTの北京駐在員の報告
Bankers had been calling for the central bank to ease the pressure and a few investors had even predicted that it might cut interest rates. Instead, the People’s Bank of China ordered a thorough implementation of the new “mass line education” campaign launched this week by President Xi Jinping ? a campaign that in its propaganda-style and potential scope carries echoes of the Mao era. 最近、習近平の始めた政治キャンペーンは大衆の再教育を言うプロパガンダがあって そこには毛沢東の風味・・
The Communist party cadres that run the central bank were told to attack the “four winds” of “formalism, bureaucracy, hedonism and extravagance”, as demanded by Mr Xi. 中央銀行を管理する共産党同士は習近平の指示により4つの悪風を攻撃せよと求められ た。それは、形式主義、官僚主義、享楽主義、浪費・無節操である
“It is quite possible that the central bank’s policies have some connection to Xi’s campaign,” said Willy Lam, an expert on Chinese politics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. Here’s another interesting quote from a China pundit ? this time an economist: “There are definitely political calculations,” said Ken Peng, an economist with BNP Paribas. “The senior leadership is much more worried about ‘correcting behaviour’ and political considerations than just protecting their 7.5 per cent growth target.” 中国政治の専門家Willy Lamは中央銀行の措置が習近平のキャンペーンに関連している 可能性は高いという。BNPパリバのエコノミストKen Pengは中央銀行の政策に政治的な 計算が確かにあるという。中央銀行の幹部は中国経済よりも「政治的に正しい行動」 をすることに関心があろう
・・・ But what’s going on in China right now is arguably just as important for investors as what might happen next summer?remember, the Fed restarted QE when the end of the last two rounds seemed to stall the economy. Indeed, China might well be more relevant to the rout in commodity and emerging markets. ・・・ Economists who follow China closely are worried about the scale of hidden bad debts, especially in China’s shadow banking industry?in other words the parts of the financial system that can extend loans but aren’t regulated like banks. And the People’s Bank of China could well be allowing short-dated interest rates to squeeze higher in an effort to rein in the credit expansion that’s generated vast amounts of industrial overcapacity and real-estate bubbles in the country and shift growth onto more normal, demand-driven growth.
But there are questions about the degree to which the Chinese authorities can control the transition. If they get it wrong, there’s likely to be a sudden crunch. And if they blink and pump liquidity back into the system, they might well end up with little economic growth to show for large amounts of new credit piled on top of the old, a lot of it going bad. What’s more, releasing the liquidity floodgates now could well trigger domestic inflation. Inflation in emerging markets is particularly hazardous?think of the Arab Spring or Tiananmen Square.(ry
Brevan Howard's $2.7 billion emerging markets hedge fund cut risk and sold positions after getting crushed by the EM slump, Bloomberg reports. Managed by 38-year-old Geraldine Sundstrom, the fund fell about 5% this month, totaling 11% in yearly losses, a source told Bloomberg. From Bloomberg:
Brevan Howard lowered the value at risk, or VaR, for the Emerging Markets Strategies Master Fund by 50 percent in May and at least 30 percent more this month after losses climbed to almost $300 million this year, said the people who asked not to be identified because the firm is private. VaR, an estimate of potential trading losses, can be cut by selling investments and reducing leverage.
BEIJING, June 20 (Xinhua) -- Bank of China (BOC), the country's leading commercial bank, on Thursday evening denied a media report claiming the bank had defaulted earlier in the day. The BOC statement came after the official Sina Weibo account for 21st Century Business Herald said the bank had defaulted on Thursday afternoon, deferring transactions for half an hour due to a fund shortage, citing anonymous sources. 21世紀ビジネスヘラルドは中国最大の商業銀行である中国銀行が木曜午後にファンド 資金の欠如から30分程度、デフォルト状態に陥ったと報道した。此れは匿名ソースを もとにツイッターのアカウントに報告された。中国銀行は此れについて事実無根と否 定する声明を夕方出している
SHANGHAI--China's money-market interest rates fell sharply early Friday, retreating from record highs on market chatter that the country's central bank has put pressure on large state-run lenders to release more cash to ease a worsening liquidity squeeze.
The seven-day repurchase agreement rate, a benchmark for interbank borrowing costs, dropped to 8.33% on a weighted-average basis, down from 11.62% at Thursday's close. The overnight repo rate also fell a whopping 352 basis points to 8.22% from the previous day. 7日間インターバンクレートは昨日の11.62%から8.33%にシャープに低下。 オーバーナイトレートも352bp低下して8.22%となった。
インドネシア・スマトラ(Sumatra)島の野焼きが原因の煙霧により、シンガポール の大気汚染指数は21日、「病人と高齢者の命にかかわる」とされる400に達した。 シンガポール政府当局のウェブサイトによると、大気汚染指数21日午前11時(日本 時間同日正午)に400を超えた。 写真はシンガポール中心部のガーデンズ・バイ・ザ・ベイ(Gardens by the Bay)の ドーム前でくつろぐ人びと(2013年6月20日撮影)。(c)AFP/Roslan Rahman
設備投資に関しては、「円安に伴う輸出数量の増加がまだ本格化していないこともあり、 企業の設備投資意欲はまだ弱いが、13年度末にかけて国内景気は回復傾向を続けると の期待も依然根強く、全般的に上方修正される」(農林中金総研)との指摘があった。 (石田仁志)c Thomson Reuters 2013 All rights reserved.
This is going to wipe out a huge amount of capital... and believe me... it's 100% guaranteed to happen. It's already starting...
追伸 我々はドル体制の最終ステージにいる。 これが崩壊したとき金の価格は今の二倍三倍になる。
P.S. We are in the late, terminal stages of the U.S. dollar/paper-money reserve system. When this house of cards finally collapses, gold, the currency central banks cannot print, will double, maybe even triple in price. That's why I encourage everyone to hold a large allocation of gold. But take your position soon... Contrary to popular perception, the supply of real gold is vanishing
CME Group, which operates the New York Comex exchange on which gold futures are traded, announced yesterday it is increasing margin requirements on gold trading by 25% to $8800 per 100-ounce contract. The new initial margin requirement will come into effect after close of trading today. “That is definitely affecting gold,” says Joyce Liu, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore. “For those who cannot put out margin calls on time, they will be squeezed out even when they don’t want to get out.” 25%引き上げて100オンスあたり$8800、今日の取引から適用
中国の金融システムの問題や最近のインターバンク金利のスパイクについて、保守系 シンクタンク、ヘリテージ財団のブログから ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://blog.heritage.org/2013/06/20/chinas-financial-quandary-get-used-to-it/ China’s Financial Quandary: Get Used to It Derek Scissors, Ph.D.June 20, 2013 at 3:30 pm(0) 中国の金融の苦境: それに慣れたほうが良い Derek Scissors ヘリテージ財団
The finance media are discovering that China has trapped itself with bad monetary policy, joining a long list of countries in this situation. The media should next realize that China faces not a crisis but a long-term problem of untangling the effects of bad decisions made over several years. 金融メディアが中国のマネタリ政策や問題点について報じているけれど、彼ら メディアが理解すべきことは、この問題が中国にとって危機ではなく、数年間 に渡って積み上げられた拙い意思決定の結果で、解決のために長期間を要する 問題であるということだ。
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) clearly suffers from too-loose credit. This reduces the impact of additional liquidity, along the lines of pouring buckets of water into a lake and hoping for a flood. Beijing built its own trap with its panicked 2009 lending, which was wrongly praised by many. The extent of the problem has been obvious for some time. The trap has closed. Thousands of projects started in 2009?2010 demand ongoing funding. The same is true for hundreds of firms that should have gone bankrupt. In light of overleveraging, the government hesitates to engage in further large-scale quantitative easing, but smaller amounts of money no longer have an impact. One result is short-term cash crunches. 中国の問題は安易に過ぎた信用供与の結果であって、2009年の金融危機の時のパ ニックのような信用供与に始まっている。2009−2010年に始まった数千の開発プ ロジェクトが既に進行中のファンディングを必要とする。それは本来は倒産させ るべきであった数百の企業への融資も同じである。レバレッジの過剰に際して中
It takes years of poor policy to simultaneously boast far too much credit and not enough cash. Beyond the 2009 hyper-stimulus, Beijing has refused to open the capital account, so money cannot leave or enter China freely. This creates a wall, such that the PRC accumulates a mountain of almost- useless foreign assets even while domestic liabilities explode. 数年に渡る拙い政策が経済振興のための開発プロジェクトに過剰な信用を供与 し、充分な資金を提供しなかった。2009年のハイパー振興政策のあとで、中国政 府は資本取引を規制し、マネーは中国に自由に出入りできないようにしたので 中国政府は結果的に収集した巨額の外貨資産についての壁を築き、その資産が殆 ど使いものにならないようにした。
The government insists that it is now committed to opening the capital account, but the process must occur over the course of the decade. It also could take that long for the People’s Bank to reduce domestic credit to sound levels. China watchers will therefore become accustomed to notable financial problems cropping up periodically but consistently over the next five years or so. When the financial crisis erupted, even knowledgeable observers seemed taken by China’s unmatched ability to mobilize resources. But you still reap what you sow. 中国政府は資本取引を自由化するというが、それには10年近い時間が必要であ ろう。また人民銀行(中央銀行)が国内の信用供与をまともなレベルに戻すの にも、そのくらいの時間が必要だろう。中国ウオッチャーは、こういう事情で あるので、今後5年くらいは中国の金融の問題が定期的に問題化することに慣れ ることになろう。問題が起これば中国政府は保有する資源を使う他国とは比べ 物にならない大きな力を示すだろう。
WSJアジア版の「レビュー&アウトルック」(準社説)が中国のクレディット・クランチ を評論している。WSJは、この状況を2009年当時の過度に信用拡大し投資振興によって 経済成長を支えるという中国モデルの限界を、中国の指導部が認識して金融政策の変 更を試行するものとして(考え方の変化を)基本的に評価するのだけれど、さまざまの 状況から必ずしも楽観できるものではなく危険も含むと見る。些か微妙なニュアンス の評論と思える。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324021104578552891506605904.html REVIEW & OUTLOOK ASIA Updated June 20, 2013, 10:44 p.m. ET China's Credit Crunch A deliberate curb on lending suggests reform is coming. 中国のクレジット・クランチ WSJ/R&O
After the 2003 episode, reforms made us cautiously optimistic that the four huge state-owned banks would operate as commercial entities rather than agents of the government. They modernized their systems and managed to list their shares. But with interest rates still held artificially below the rate of inflation, the seeds of another crisis were sown in the mid-2000s, as a shadow banking system began to emerge. According to Standard & Poor's, shadow lending has grown at 34% for the last couple of years, so that by the end of 2012 its assets were equivalent to 34% of outstanding bank loans and 44% of GDP. Fellow rating agency Fitch's estimates are even higher. 2003年の金融政策改変の後で中国の四大銀行は政府の一部としてではなく民間企業と して運用されることに成ったが、預金金利は依然としてインフレ率を下回り、次回の 危機の種が2000年代中頃に準備された。シャドー・バンキング・システムが勃興した。 S&Pによれば、その成長速度は過去2年に34%、2012年にはGDPの44%に達した。フィ ッチはさらに大きな数字を推定している。
Despite continuing double-digit credit growth the real economy has slowed, with some projections for this year's GDP growth below the government's target of 7.5%. This sent a clear message to China's leaders that resorting to credit-driven growth is a dead end. To their credit, they are evidently serious about pronouncements that future growth will be driven by reform, starting with market-based interest rates. クレジットの拡大の二桁の増加が続いているにもかかわらず、実体経済は成長が鈍化 している。今年のGDPの成長目標は7.5%だが、それを下回るだろうとの予想も在る。 この事実が中国の指導者に明瞭なメッセージを送っていてクレジット増大に依存する 成長はデッドエンドである。彼ら指導者は真剣に改革を考えていて、金利を市場に即 して決める事は出発点である。
If a reckoning for past wasteful lending does come, there will inevitably be political implications. Some observers have attributed new leader Xi Jinping's emphasis on nationalism as preparation for this trial. One can only hope that Chinese citizens will support the transition ahead because they understand a more market-oriented economy will be more prosperous and fair, and better provide the public goods like clean air and safe food. もし指導者が過去の過剰な貸付を改めるのであれば、それは必然的に政治的なインプ リケーションを含むであろう。一部の観察者は習近平のナショナリズム強調の言辞が この試行に関連すると見る。願わくば中国の有権者の支持で改革の成功せんことを。 市場に即した経済はより繁栄し、公平で良きものであるから。それは清浄な空気や 安全な食品と同じように重要な公共のものであるから。
FTに掲載された中国の反日ナショナリズムについての評論。中国の反日感情は 1980年代以降に、共産主義の権威失墜に際して、代替えイデオロギーとして ナショナリズムを使うという共産党の政策によるものだと解説。しかし最近で は、国民を煽り過ぎた結果「沖縄は中国のもの」という輩まで出てくるように なって、中国政府は困惑しているという ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/0a50d49c-d93a-11e2-84fa-00144feab7de.html#axzz2WvLUE2lo June 21, 2013 7:05 pm A forgotten war comes back to life By Simon Kuper In China, the Sino-Japanese war now looms so large that it sometimes eludes the party’s control 忘れられていた(日中)戦争が息をふき返している By Simon Kuper FT
And in geopolitics, China is disputing Japan’s sovereignty over some uninhabited rocks in the East China Sea ? and soon, perhaps, over Okinawa Island too. 更には領土問題で日中の闘いがあって、東支那海の無人島が問題になっているが、 おそらくは近い将来、沖縄も問題に成るのだろう。
The Chinese have rediscovered “their” second world war. Just as the conflict fades from memory in the west, it has become salient as never before in China. 中国は彼らのバージョンの第二次世界大戦を再発見している。西欧ではその記憶の消え ようという時に、それは中国では従来に無い突出した(目立った)ものになっている
Only in the 1980s did China start to commemorate the Sino-Japanese war as more than just a heroic Mao-led prelude to communist nirvana. In 1985 a museum opened in memory of the Japanese “Rape of Nanjing” of 1937-38 ? a slaughter of up to 300,000 people that had never previously much interested the party because it hadn’t been there. Today Nanjing is much- discussed in China; rather more so than bigger massacres of Chinese by Chinese, notably Mao’s Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. 1980年代に成って中国は日中戦争を記念するような事を始め、それは毛沢東の率いた 共産党に依る祖国統一の前奏曲以上の英雄的なものとされた。30万人の虐殺のあった (とされている)南京大虐殺は以前には共産党の興味を引くものではなかったが、 それは国民党と日本との戦いで共産党はそこにはいなかったためである。今日南京の 事件は盛んに議論されている。それは毛沢東に依るより大規模な中国人の虐殺である 大躍進や文化大革命などよりも大きな議論になっている。
The post-Mao party revived the Sino-Japanese war, mostly because it needed a new ideology to replace communism. That need became urgent after the Tiananmen Square uprising of 1989. In a dictatorship, Mitter told me, “There are two things you can do. One is to run the economy really well, and the other is to make people feel nationalistically proud. Nationalism is a very powerful button to press.” Similarly in Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic dropped communism for nationalism. 毛沢東以降の中国共産党は日中戦争をよみがえらせた。それは、共産主義に変わる新 たなイデオロギーを必要としたことが大きな理由である。天安門事件の後では共産主 義に代わるイデオロギーが緊急に必要であった。 Mitterは私に「独裁主義政権におい ては、2つのことが出来る。ひとつは経済をいかようにも運用でき、成功させることが できる。もう一つは国民にナショナリスティックなプライドを持たせることが出来る。 ナショナリスムは実に強力な道具だ」と述べた。同じようにユーゴスラビアではミロ セビッチが共産主義を民族主義で置き変えることをやっている。
War talk had other uses for the new China. By talking up the shared battle of all Chinese, Communist and Nationalist, the party hoped to woo the Taiwanese. This hasn’t always worked. As Mitter says: “Chinese praise for Chiang has coincided with a severe downgrading of shares in Chiang Kai-shek in Taiwan, where he’s now regarded as a dictator who oppressed the people of Taiwan for many years.” War talk also sends a reminder to former western allies: that China, the new “responsible great power”, was with them when it mattered. 日中戦争を話題に取り上げることで中国共産党は台湾に対して共通の敵として戦った 日本をアピールして共感を醸成しようという狙いも在るのだが必ずしも此れは上手く ゆかない。Mitterによれば「蒋介石についての共産党の称賛は台湾における蒋介石の 評価の減少と裏腹で、今の台湾では彼は台湾の住人に圧政をしいた独裁者とみなされ ている」中国が日中戦争を取り上げることは連合国にもメッセージを送っていて、 中国は連合国にとって新たな「責任ある偉大なパートナー」である。
In China, by contrast, the Sino-Japanese war now looms so large that it sometimes eludes the Communist party’s control. Many Chinese citizens show an anti-Japanese fervour that embarrasses the leadership. For instance, Chinese officials generally find Japan’s nostalgic rightwing prime minister Shinzo Abe (grandson of a suspected war criminal) a man they can do business with. But many ordinary Chinese get angry when, say, Abe makes tactless comments about the foreign “comfort women” used as sex slaves by Japan’s wartime army. 中国において日中戦争が大きく取り上げられてきた結果、今では時にそれが共産党 の管理を超えるものになっている。国民の反日感情の高まりは政府を当惑させる。 中国政府は日本の安倍政権(首相は戦犯の孫である)とビジネスが出来ると見なす のだが、多くの国民は安倍首相の慰安婦についての発言に怒っている。
Popular anger may also be pushing China’s new President Xi Jinping to hang tough in his dangerous dispute with Japan over the tiny islands in the East China Sea. Now some Chinese scholars and military officers are even claiming Okinawa for China. The Communist party is riding belligerent nationalism, but it is struggling to stay on the horse. 国民の反日感情は中国の新指導者、習近平をして些細な島の日本との危険な争いに タフな姿勢を取らせる。今では一部の中国の学者や軍の士官が沖縄の中国帰属を言 っている。中国共産党は好戦的なナショナリズムという荒馬に乗っているのだが、 しかし彼らは、その馬の上から落ちないように苦闘している。
ちなみに最近出版された中国人学者の大躍進の検証を行う著書では、死者1600万人 ttp://www.amazon.com/Tombstone-Great-Chinese-Famine-1958-1962/dp/0374277931 Tombstone: The Great Chinese Famine, 1958-1962 [Hardcover] Yang Jisheng (Author), Edward Friedman (Editor, Introduction), Stacy Mosher (Editor, Translator), Jian Guo (Editor, Translator), Roderick MacFarquhar (Introduction) List Price: $35.00 Price: $24.28 & FREE Shipping on orders over $25. Details
また、文化大革命は共産党の記述で死者40万人、研究者の推定は数字が様々で・・ Sociologist Daniel Chirot claims that around 100 million people suffered and at least one million people, and perhaps as many as 20 million, died in the Cultural Revolution.[100] (Daniel Chirot. Modern tyrants: the power and prevalence of evil in our age. Princeton University Press, 1996. ISBN 0-691-02777-3 p. 198)
・・・・ “I am extremely concerned about China,” said Lars Christensen from Danske Bank. “They are overdoing it and are on the verge of making the same mistake as the Fed and the European Central Bank before the Lehman crisis in 2008, when they failed to see how much the economy was slowing.” (デンマークの)Danske銀行のLars Christensenは「中国のことが大変気がかりだ」 という「彼らはFRBとECBが2008年のリーマン・ショックの前にやっていたことと同じ 誤りをしそうに思える。FRBとECBは経済鈍化に至る先行きを軽視していた」という。
Mr Christensen said the world now risks a “perfect storm” as the Fed prepares to taper its bond purchases (QE) at the same time as tightening the spigot of worldwide dollar liquidity. Lars Christensenは世界が完全な嵐に見舞われる可能性を憂慮する。それはFRBがテー パリングの出口政策に進み、中国がそれと同時に金融の引き締めに向かうことで世界 の流動性が減少する。
The twin effects are cascading through emerging markets, pummelling commodity exporters such as Brazil, South Africa and Russia that sell to China, but also tripping up Turkey, Ukraine, Hungary and others that rely on external funding. “Everything is being hit indiscriminately,” said Neil Shearing from Capital Economics. この2つの効果で途上国の市場が打撃を受ける。ブラジル、南アフリカ、ロシア などのコモディティを輸出する国がそれで、トルコ、ウクライナ、ハンガリー
The Turkish lira and the Indian rupee both fell to record lows as investors pencilled in Fed tapering for September. “The party is over,” said Ceros Securities in Istanbul. トルコ・リラやインド・ルピーは歴史的な下げを記録しイスタンブールのCeros 証券はレポートでFRBのテーパリングについて「パーティは終わった」と書いて いる
Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has brought forward his QE exit by lifting the unemployment target from 6.5pc to 7pc. He dismissed the looming threat of deflation as a “transitory” effect. Brazil’s real weakened to a four-year low of 2.26 against the dollar, down 15pc since April, while the cost of credit default swaps gauging risk in Indonesia and Vietnam jumped more than 40 points. The Kremlin said Russian companies may have to delay bond issues, but denied immediate credit stress. ブラジルの通貨リアルは4年来の安値、対ドルで2.26をつけ4月から15%の下落、 ベトナムのCDSは40bp増加、ロシア企業は債券発行を先送りすることに成るかも しれないが即時の信用ストレスは無いとクレムリンが言っている。
The latest country moving onto the radar screen is Poland, where construction crashed 28pc in May, “Poland is suddenly stalling, something we haven’t seen in almost two decades. The central bank has been way too hawkish,” said Bartosz Pawlowski from BNP Paribas. ポーランドでは建設が5月に28%クラッシュし、BNPパリバのBartosz Pawlowski は「ポーランドは突然失速し、過去20年に見たこと無い何かが起こっている。 中央銀行は鷹派に過ぎた」という。
Benoit Anne from Societe Generale said the “second leg” of the emerging market sell-off is just starting, warning that there is a “long way” to go before investors wake up to the full impact of Fed tightening. ソシエテ・ジェネラルのBenoit Anne はFRBの政策による途上国市場の売りが 始まったという。FRBの引き締めの全てのインパクトを投資家が理解するには 時間がかかろう、という。
Latin America’s debt crisis of the early Eighties and East Asia’s crisis in the Nineties were both triggered by turns in the US credit cycle, though emerging markets have ample foreign reserves to defend themselves this time. 80年代初期のラテンアメリカの負債危機、90年台の東南アジアの金融危機は 米国の引き締めがトリガーとなって起こっている。ただし今回は以前と異な って途上国が多くの外貨準備をもっているが。
Mr Shearing said the BRICS quintet will be much weaker than assumed over the next two years for their own structural reasons, but there is now the risk of a “mutually reinforcing” effect as dollar stimulus drains away. Mr ShearingはBRICSの5ヶ国は従来思われていたよりも弱体であることが来た る2年間に示されるだろうという。それは諸国の構造的要因によるが、さらに 「相互に(悪影響を)強化する」効果があるからという。
The latest ructions in China came after premier Li Keqiang omitted mention of the liquidity strains in a speech this week, instead dwelling on rampant excess in the shadow banking system and overcapacity in obsolete areas of the economy. Though Deutsche Bank said the unwinding of hot money inflows disguised by over-invoicing may also be to blame. ドイツ銀行は中国のシャードーバンキングと設備過剰に加えて海外からの ホットマネー流入の巻き戻しが不正インボイスに依る輸出偽装を引き起こ
Mr Li’s comments were a signal that the new leadership intends to prick the credit bubble, even though the hard line has already led to industrial recession. China’s HSBC manufacturing index fell sharply in June, dropping further below the “boom-bust line” to 48.3. 李克強の演説は新政権がクレディットバブルを始末しようとる意図を示し ている。このハードライン政策を中国経済の成長鈍化の見られる中で断行 しようとしていてHSBCの製造業PMIは6月にシャープに低下している。
Zhiwei Zhang from Nomura said Beijing aims to crack down on a plethora of trusts, wealth products and offshore vehicles intended to evade loan curbs. These have accounted for half China’s credit growth over the past year. 野村のエコノミストZhiwei Zhangは中国政府が過剰な富裕層向け金融商品や オフショア金融ビークルの整理を意図しているという。それはローンの増加 の抑制のためである。それらの金融商品は昨年の中国のクレジットのの伸び の半分を占めている。
It is willing to “tolerate short-term pain” to wean China off over- investment, and is less worried about social instability now that its workforce has begun to contract and the rate of migrants from rural areas is slowing. それは「短期の痛みを許容する」政策で中国経済を投資過剰から引き離すもの である。そこには労働者の失業などによる社会の不安定化のことは余り問題に されていない
The strategy is to tighten before the Fed winds down QE in order to “avoid two negative shocks occurring simultaneously”, but this may be hard to manage given the scale of the boom. “We expect a painful deleveraging process in the next few months. Some defaults will likely
occur in manufacturing industry and in non-bank financial institutions,” he said. 中国の戦略はFRBのQE終焉の引き締めの起こる前に中国の引き締めを行い、 「2つのショックの同時発生を避ける」ことである。しかしそれは簡単では 無くて「今後数ヶ月は痛みを伴うデレバレッジのプロセスが製造業とノン バンク金融業に起こり一部の企業のデフォルトも有り得ると思う」
Fitch Ratings said total credit has jumped from $9 trillion to $23 trillion over the past five years, surging from 125pc to 200pc of GDP. This is a bigger rise than in any of the major bubbles worldwide over the past half century. フィッチはクレジットの全体は過去5年間に9兆ドルから23兆ドルになったと いう。これはGDPの125%から200%への増加である。この規模というのは過去 50年に他には見ない禿しい増大である。
China has the firepower to cope with any crisis and will not let the state banking system collapse. Keeping growth on track now that credit has reached saturation point is a tougher challenge. 中国は危機を管理する資源を持ち、国有の銀行システムの崩壊を許さないで あろうけれど、クレジット増加は今やタフな挑戦となる状況に至った;
I will be traveling today, so limited blogging (and yes, I’m still in Yurp, so “today” is Thursday). But I did want to weigh in briefly on the Fed’s latest, in which Bernanke confirmed that the Fed is getting significantly more hawkish ? based on relatively optimistic forecasts. My reaction is, this is not good. They might get away with it, but there’s also a serious chance that this will end up looking like a historic mistake. 私は、今回のFRBの意思決定について、FRBが楽観的な見通しの上にたってより鷹派 的な決定をしたと思う。これが良い決定であるとは、私は思わない。これには、深 刻な事になる可能性も含まれていて、歴史的なミステークに成る可能性もある。
Bear in mind, first, that the US economy is still deep in the hole, which is especially obvious if you look at employment rather than unemployment: アメリカ経済は依然として深い穴の中にいて、それは失業率を見ればわかる。
So what if recovery stalls, and inflation expectations fall even further? Can the Fed turn on a dime, and send a credible message that it really isn’t so conventional-minded, after all? It’s hard to believe; having already shown itself inclined to start snatching away the punch bowl before the party even starts, it has arguably already given away the game. もし経済回復が失速すればどうなるか? インフレ期待がさらに下落すれば? パーティが始まってもいないのにパンチボールを片付けるのかすらん それは ゲームを諦めることにならいか
I know that the latest had overwhelming support on the FOMC; I’m surprised and a bit shocked by that, and worry that we may have seen incestuous amplification at work. FOMCの決定が圧倒的支持で決められた事に驚かされる・・
I really hope that the real economy recovers at a pace that makes my fears groundless. But if it doesn’t, I fear that the Fed has just done more damage than it seems to realize. 私は心から願うのだが、実体経済の回復が私の心配を根拠のないものとして、吹き 飛ばしてくれることを。でも、もしそうならないのであればFRBは認識しているより も有害な決定をしたことに。
ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Turkish riot police fired water cannon to disperse thousands of anti-government demonstrators in Istanbul on Saturday, as Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan castigated those behind protests he said had played into the hands of Turkey's enemies. (略) "Who won from these three weeks of protests? The interest rate lobby, Turkey's enemies," Erdogan said from a stage emblazoned with his portrait and a slogan calling for his supporters to "thwart the big game" played out against Turkey. "Who lost from these protests? Turkey's economy, even if to a small extent, tourism lost. They overshadowed and stained Turkey's image and international power," he said.(後略) エルドアン首相は支持者の集会で演説し、反政府抗議行動の背後にはトルコの 敵の勢力が在るとした。「この3週間の抗議行動で誰が利を得るのか? 金利ロビーやトルコの敵である」「誰が損害をこうむるのか? トルコ経済で ある。些細な量とはいえ観光業にも影響がある。彼らはトルコのイメージや 国際的地位に影を投げる」(後略)
The US decision to upgrade Syrian rebel weaponry has run into a major setback: DEBKAfile reveals that Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan phoned President Barack Obama in Berlin Wednesday, June 19, to report his sudden decision to shut down the Turkish corridor for the transfer of US and NATO arms to the Syrian rebels. アメリカはシリアの反政府側に武器供与を決めたが障害が起こっている。トルコのエルド アン首相が水曜日19日にベルリンのオバマ大統領に電話してトルコ国内のシリアの反政府 側への武器供給のルートを遮断する決定を告げた
Against this background, the US President informed Congress Friday, June 22, that 700 combat-equipped American military personnel would remain in Jordan at the end of a joint US-Jordanian training exercise. They would include crews of two Patriot anti-aircraft missile batteries and the logistics, command and communications personnel needed to support those units. The United States is also leaving behind from the war maneuver a squadron of 12 to 24 F-16 fighter jets at Jordan’s request. Some 300 US troops have been in Jordan since last year. この事件に関連して大統領は22日に議会に700名の米兵をヨルダンとの合同軍事訓練の後 も残すと通知した。パトリオットの部隊や通信部隊を含み、またヨルダンの要請で米軍 は12−24のF16の部隊を残す。
Erdogan’s decision will leave the Syrian rebels fighting in Aleppo virtually high and dry. The fall of Qusayr cut off their supplies of arms from Lebanon. Deliveries through Jordan reach only as far as southern Syria and are almost impossible to move to the north where the rebels and the Hizballah-backed Syrian army are locked in a decisive battle for Aleppo. エルドアン首相の決定はアレッポで戦闘中の反政府軍に打撃と成る。ヨルダンからシリ ア南部のルートは北部で戦闘中の部隊に届かない。
The Turkish prime minister told Obama he is afraid of Russian retribution if he continues to let US and NATO weapons through to the Syrian rebels. Since the G8 Summit in Northern Ireland last week, Moscow has issued almost daily condemnations of the West for arming “terrorists.” Rebel spokesmen in Aleppo claimed Friday that they now had weapons which they believe “will change the course of the battle on the ground.” トルコ首相はオバマ大統領に、米軍とNATOのシリア反政府側への支援を許容し続ければ ロシアの報復を受けるおそれがあると告げた。
DEBKAfile’s military sources are strongly skeptical of their ability - even after the new deliveries - to stand up to the onslaught on their positions in the embattled town by the combined strength of the Syrian army, Hizballah troops and armed Iraqi Shiites. The prevailing intelligence assessment is that they will be crushed in Aleppo as they were in Al Qusayr. That battle was lost after 16 days of ferocious combat; Aleppo is expected to fall after 40-60 days of great bloodshed. アレッポの反政府側が壊滅される可能性
The arms the rebels received from US, NATO and European sources were purchased on international markets ? not only because they were relatively cheap but because they were mostly of Russian manufacture. The rebels are thus equipped with Russian weapons for fighting the Russian arms used by the Syria army. This made Moscow angrier than ever. Until now, the Erdogan government was fully supportive of the Syrian opposition, permitting them to establish vital command centers and rear bases on Turkish soil and send supplies across the border to fighting units. He has now pulled the rug out from under their cause and given Assad a major leg-up エルドアン政権はこれまでシリア反政府側を支持してきた。トルコ国内の仮想的コマン ド・センターや国境を超える物資の支給を許容してきている。首相は今やちゃぶ台返し をしてアサド政権を助ける。
This about-turn is a strategic earthquake ? not just in terms of the Syrian war but also for the United States and, as time goes by, for Israel too. Ten years ago, Erdogan pulled the same maneuver when he denied US troops passage through Turkey to Iraq for opening a second front against Saddam Hussein. これは戦略的地震というべきでシリア内戦だけでなくイスラエルへの影響が。10年前 にエルドアンは米軍がトルコからサダム・フセインのイラクに侵入することを拒否し た経過が在る。
President Obama reacted by topping up the US deployment in Jordan by 700 combat-equipped troops to 1,000. Patriot missile interceptors and F-16 fighter jets are left behind from their joint war game for as long as the security situation requires. DEBKAfile: The joint US-Jordanian maneuver was in fact abruptly curtailed after two weeks although it was planned to continue for two months until the end of August. The widening disruptions of the surging Syrian war are on the point of tipping over into Jordan and coming closer than ever to Israel. シリア内戦の影響が拡大し、ヨルダンやイスラエルへの影響が及ぶ
Mr. Miller is president and Mr. Charney is research director of China Beige Book International, which publishes a quarterly economic survey of over 2,000 Chinese
Consider widespread misperceptions over the expansion of shadow finance. From January to May, official data indicated that "total social finance" in China's economy (principally shadow banking) expanded dramatically, leaving the market convinced that a tidal wave of credit was arriving.
Our quarterly national Chinese business surveys, by contrast, have shown that the proportion of Chinese firms borrowing from shadow lenders was identical in the first and second quarters of this year (and down nearly half from a year ago).
Far from seeing firms soaked in liquidity from any source, our surveys have seen drops each quarter in realized company borrowing, from 43% a year ago to a shockingly low 30% this quarter. Average interest rates paid by firms have steadily risen to 7.1% since bottoming during the third quarter of last year at 5.96%.
In other words, while the market was obsessing over the threat of too much liquidity, firms found loans increasingly difficult and expensive to obtain. This kind of incongruity between the actual credit environment and the market's perception of it made some sort of shock almost inevitable?something our data highlighted back in March.(ry ・・・・ The overall tightening in credit this year, coupled with the market's mistaken belief that large and growing aggregate figures for total social finance would backstop credit growth, created an expectations bubble that is proving every bit as dangerous as an actual credit bubble. In this context, a spike in call rates is hardly surprising. The market is simply much shallower than the aggregate numbers indicate.
Investors would do well to ignore official headline numbers and concentrate instead on reports from businesses that have long been signaling distress over tightening credit. If they wait for official evidence of this, they will likely get it only after further market jolts.
The boldest of these predictions, perhaps not surprisingly, comes from JPMorgan's brash CEO Jamie Dimon. In April, in his annual letter to shareholders, Dimon predicted that his bank would make $5 billion over the following 12 months if interest rates were to suddenly rise 3%. JPモルガンCEOジェイミーダイモンは株主への手紙で、彼の銀行は金利が3%に 上昇したらその後の一年で50億ドル儲けると予想した。
One answer could be that Dimon and JPMorgan Chase have taken a very big bet that interest rates would rise. Indeed, in his letter to shareholders Dimon says the bank "is currently positioned" to make money when rates rise and that that positioning "costs us a certain amount of current income." That could mean that JPMorgan has bought a large amount of interest rate swaps, a type of derivative contract that pays out when rates rise, on which the bank could be paying a regular insurance type premium. JPモルガンは金利が上昇するという大きな賭けに出た可能性がある。 株主への手紙でダイモンは、金利が上昇すれば利益が出るポジションを取っているので、 コストとして多少の収益を犠牲にしていると書いている。 これはJPモルガンが大きな金利スワップ(金利上昇で利益が出るが、プレミアムを支払う) を購入していることを示している。 http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/06/03/jpmorgan-dimon-bond-bet/
>the BIS is wrong to argue that delaying exit from QE and zero rates is itself dangerous. >The historical record from the US in 1937, Japan in 2000, and other cases
>And the worst of it is that these views will carry some weight, because the BIS still, >for some reason, retains substantial credibility. BISはまだまだ信頼されてるだけに始末が悪い
Via higher interbank rates, the PBoC is telling banks they need to source their own liquidity, reduce their reliance on such products, and not expect the PBoC to bail them out when they face a cash squeeze. Banks will be under pressure to issue longer-term WMPs (three months and above) to overcome liquidity pressures. Banks will also likely choose to raise rates on WMPs in order to raise more liquidity. This may trigger more flows into WMPs, away from deposit accounts. ・・・ The really important argument here is that what China is doing is deliberate and the PBoC is in control. A last bit from Stan Chart who are keeping the faith: ・・・ Surgery is meant to cure, not kill, the patient ? and while some pain is inevitable, we firmly believe the PBoC is in control. The PBoC has numerous tools at its disposal to respond to excessive tightness. It could launch reverse repo transactions, cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) or provide liquidity through short-term liquidity operations (SLOs). The SLO facility was launched in Q1-2013 but has apparently not yet been used. ・・・ But, and this is a really big but, there is a question as to how much of this is real control or more an illusion of control as the PBoC’s hand is being forced by a dollar shortage caused in turn by a collapsing carry trade. Oh to be a fly on the wall in China’s version of King’s Landing…
MARKETS More: China Chinese Financial Stocks Cratered GABRIEL WILDAU AND LU JIANXIN, REUTERS
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China's cash crunch eased further on Monday after the central bank moved to prevent the money market from seizing up, but bank stocks tanked as the authorities made clear that the days of unlimited cheap official funds are over.
Chinese shares suffered their biggest daily loss in nearly four years, with financial stocks dropping more than 7 percent after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said banks needed to do a better job of managing their cash and lending.
Money market rates had soared last week when the central bank, relied on as a source of cheap cash used to finance China's vast "shadow banking" system, stood pat, letting a sharp drop in fund inflows into China and cash hoarding by some banks do the rest.
The sudden tightening of cash markets, which saw some banks paying a 25 percent interest rate for cash, fanned fears that Beijing's latest attempt to steer the world's second-biggest economy to more balanced growth less reliant on credit-driven investment could backfire.(ry
It’s hard to know exactly what degree of control the PBoC has over the events unfolding in China’s interbank markets. ・・・・ Again, the immediate facts prompt the question about how equipped the PBoC is to handle these situations, and whether the advantages it’s had in the past will continue to work at all, or even backfire.
Central banking is a confidence game. As Anne Stevenson-Yang of J Capital Research writes, the PBoC has to maintain the confidence of not just domestic financial participants; it also has to persuade speculative overseas capital that the country, and its currency, are still stable enough to invest in. ・・・・ However, Stevenson-Yang, who closely watches the amazingly rapid innovations in China’s shadow finance world, sees a risk that China’s feted huge foreign capital reserves could dry up.
・・・But it was right to relent. If this is a ticking bomb, it must be defused not detonated.
Liberalising interest on savings accounts will weaken demand for alternative products ? but also squeeze banks’ profit margin. If demand for off-balance- sheet products is curtailed, losses may materialise. Beijing has reserves to recapitalise banks. But it cannot undo the costs of financial failure, which must land somewhere; nor avoid the inevitably fierce political struggle over where that will be.
ttp://www.independent.ie/world-news/europe/russia-defiant-as-us-raises-pressure-over-snowden-29367655.html Snowden's flight to Russia, which like China challenges U.S. dominance of global diplomacy, is an embarrassment to President Barack Obama who has tried to "reset" ties with Moscow and build a partnership with Beijing. The White House said it expected the Russian government to send Snowden back to the United States and lodged "strong objections" to Hong Kong and China for letting him go. But the Russian government ignored the appeal and President Vladimir Putin's press secretary denied any knowledge of Snowden's movements. Asked if Snowden had spoken to the Russian authorities, Peskov said: "Overall, we have no information about him."
A State Department official said Washington had told countries in the Western Hemisphere that Snowden "should not be allowed to proceed in any further international travel, other than is necessary to return him to the United States". 国務省の高官はアメリカ政府が西側諸国に対してスノードンの旅行を許す事のない ように、彼をアメリカに送り返すように求めたと述べた。
"We have to ask what the consequence is, what will happen as a result, and the scenario will be very, very different in China, simply because the banks are controlled by the government, so they will not be allowed to go bankrupt." 「どういうことが起こるかを考えるときに、中国では銀行が国家に管理されてい る為に、シナリオは西欧諸国と全く異なることを承知すべきで、破産が起こるこ とは許されていないのだ」 (彼は530億ドル規模の途上国ファンドのマネージャー)
The White House issued a blistering criticism of China on Monday over its decision to let Edward Snowden leave Hong Kong, as the whereabouts of the former National Security Agency contractor remained uncertain. Jay Carney, White House spokesman, said relations between the US and China would “unquestionably” be damaged as a result of Mr Snowden’s departure from Hong Kong on Sunday, when he boarded a plane to Moscow.
For the long-term future of US energy supplies, this is a problem. Nuclear power provided 19 per cent of US electricity last year. If that were to disappear, much of it would be replaced by gas-fired power. Renewables have made enormous strides, and solar power in particular is becoming an increasingly competitive option in parts of the US. But without large-scale energy storage, renewables cannot be relied on to provide power whenever it is needed. ・・・・ Safety, of course, is paramount, but regulators must make rational assessments of the risks rather than responding to political pressure. Nuclear power is an important part of the energy mix, and it should be allowed to remain so.
スパイ・システムについての技術的情報 One source told ABC News that as an information specialist with security clearance “he understood the framework of how the whole U.S. surveillance network works.” In short, Snowden’s stolen material would help America’s adversaries understand how we use electronics to spy. Another official said Snowden had access to a particularly important computer server in the government’s system “which contained ridiculous amounts of information” totaling hundreds of pages worth of secrets. He is suspected of storing stolen material on computers and making copies of documents. At risk is the effectiveness of billions of dollars worth of supercomputer and clandestine spying resources.
CIAの人的情報 Beyond technical systems, U.S. officials are deeply concerned that Snowden used his sensitive position to read about U.S. human assets, for example spies and informants overseas as well as safe houses and key spying centers.
They worry this recent quote from Snowden was not an exaggeration: ” I had access to the full rosters of everyone working at the NSA, the entire intelligence community, and undercover assets all over the world. The locations of every station, we have what their missions are, and so forth.” So it’s not just about what he took, but what he knows, officials emphasize. Officials describe Snowden as a walking treasure trove, a dream for foreign intelligence services. One intelligence official called Snowden and his cache an “entire U.S. government problem.”
スノードンの身柄拘束に米国は躍起 How Urgently Does the U.S. Want Snowden Back? Attorney General Eric Holder called his counterpart in Hong Kong last week to lobby for Snowden to be arrested and extradited. Hong Kong failed to apprehend Snowden, however, claiming today they had no legal basis to do so. Now the U.S. government is sternly calling on Russia to “examine all options available to them” to expel Snowden to the U.S.
・・・・But today we're getting reminders that central banks are still here. The People's Bank of China came out with a statement indicating that would ease liquidity concerns.