WASHINGTON - The United States says it is "very hard to imagine" that it can go ahead with its offer of food aid if North Korea proceeds with its planned rocket launch. State Department spokesman Victoria Nuland said such a launch would call into question North Korea's good faith and would not create an appropriate environment to go ahead with the food shipments. 国務省の広報官、Victoria Nulandは北朝鮮が計画しているロケットの打ち上げを行うならば、先に合意された食糧支援の実施は 考えられないことだと述べた。そういうロケット打ち上げは北朝鮮の誠実さを疑わせるものであり、食糧支援を実施するような 適切な環境を作るものではない、とした。
North Korea in a surprise announcement Friday said it plans to launch a satellite into space on the back of a long-range rocket in April. In late February, North Korea agreed to nuclear concessions and a moratorium on missile tests in return for the food aid. 北朝鮮は2月にミサイル試射のモラトリアムと核開発関連の譲歩を条件に食糧支援を受けることを合意しており、金曜日の長距離 ロケットの打ち上げ計画発表は驚きを持って受け取られている。
ttp://freebeacon.com/north-korea-breaks-food-aid-deal-plans-to-launch-space-rocket/ NORTH KOREA BREAKS FOOD-AID DEAL, PLANS TO LAUNCH SPACE ROCKET NORTH KOREA IS A ROGUE NATION, BEHAVES LIKE ONE BY: Washington Free Beacon Staff - March 16, 2012 12:54 pm 北朝鮮は米国との先の合意を破棄してロケット打ち上げを計画 北朝鮮は、こういう行動をする、ならず者国であるのだが BY: Washington Free Beacon Staff
The announcement comes weeks after the U.S. and North Korea reached an agreement under which the rogue nation would agree to freeze its weapons program in return for food aid.
Mr Bo was named China’s commerce minister in 2004 and in this role his media savvy and flair for the dramatic were put on full display. He conducted round after round of tortuous trade negotiations with Peter Mandelson, the EU trade commissioner, in the so-called “bra wars” over Chinese textile imports to Europe
薄熙来の解任後の中国政治の権力闘争の見通しについて、WSJのチャイナ・リアルタイム・ブログ(部分抜粋) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2012/03/16/battle-over-bo-wont-end-struggle/?mod=WSJBlog Battle Over Bo Won’t End Struggle March 16, 2012, 5:31 PM HKT CHINA REAL TIME REPORT By Russell Leigh Moses 薄熙来を引きずり下ろす戦いは終わったが、権力闘争が終わったわけではない By Russell Leigh Moses WSJ
But the drama is far from over. There’s ample reason to be concerned about political stability in the Party. The fact that official Chinese media coverage of Bo’s removal was largely low-profile points to some uncertainty in Party ranks about how his sacking will play in society. Remarks praising Bo on official CCP websites remained into last night. 中国共産党の政治的安定性を憂慮をすべき理由は多く残って、中国国営メディアの薄熙来の解任についての報道は大幅な過少 報道である。彼の解任が及ぼす社会的影響には未知の部分がある。中国共産党の公式Webサイトにある薄熙来の記述は昨晩にな っても(依然として)彼の賞賛を行うものである。
And this morning’s front page of the People’s Daily spoke yet again about the need to follow Communist icon Lei Feng ?another sign that Leftists in the Party are anything but extinct. 今朝の人民日報の第一面には雷峰の賞賛を行う左派的な記事が掲載されている
What does Bo do now? Does he seek to rally his supporters, to defend him before he loses his Politburo post? Or might he go quietly now, and hope for another opportunity later this year? 薄熙来はどうするのだろう? 彼は支持者をして共産党の中央政治局委員の地位を守ろうと動くのか、或いは沈黙を守って復活の日 を待つのか?
It’s unlikely that Bo will simply slip away. If pressed further and asked to answer some of Wang Lijun’s charges, he’ll fight back. And the Party meeting in Chongqing that inaugurated Bo’s successor yesterday makes it clear that the investigation there will continue in earnest. 薄熙来が単純に消えてゆくというのは有りそうにない。王立軍事件に関連して、彼は戦う事になるかも知れず重慶共産党委員会の 昨日の会議は事件の調査の継続を言っている。
Indeed, for Bo and his followers, there may well be hope on the horizon. If economic performance starts to decline faster, the Left can argue that the best way to social justice is through charismatic leaders and mass action?and affording Bo Xilai the chance to emerge from the rubble. 薄熙来とその支持者にとって、将来に希望がないわけではない。中国経済の状況が急速に悪化すれば、左派はそうした中での最善 の方策はカリスマ的指導者と大衆運動に依る社会的公正の実現(腐敗汚職追放)であると主張するだろう。そうなれば薄熙来の復 活のチャンスがあるかも知れない。
Hu and his allies won this battle brilliantly. But the larger political struggle over who gets to shape China’s future continues. 胡主席とその一派は今回の闘争にはみごとに勝利したが、より広範な政治の構図の中では中国の将来を決める闘争が終わってはい ない。
田中防衛相は17日、北朝鮮が人工衛星を打ち上げると発表したことに関連し、日本に飛来した場合、イージス艦や地対空迎撃 ミサイル「PAC3」によるミサイル防衛(MD)システムでの迎撃を検討していることを明らかにした。田中氏は視察先の航 空自衛隊百里基地(茨城県小美玉市)で、「前回の事例もあるので、そのようなことを参考に『頭の体操』をして準備をしてい るという状況だ」と記者団に語った。政府は2009年4月の発射時には、事前に安全保障会議で迎撃方針を決定後、浜田防衛 相(当時)が「破壊措置命令」を自衛隊に発令し、イージス艦やPAC3などによるミサイル防衛(MD)システムを展開して 飛来に備えた。 ---------------------------------------------------- 読売の英語記事は、ちょっとニュアンスの違う報道で ttp://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120317003409.htm 'Satellite' could be shot down / Govt considering intercepting N. Korean rocket if it flies near Japan ---------------------------------------------------- スターズ&ストライプに掲載された記事 ttp://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/japanese-government-considers-intercepting-north-korean-rocket-if-it-flies-near-japan-1.171972 Japanese government considers intercepting North Korean rocket if it flies near Japan The Yomiuri Shimbun Published: March 18, 2012
When North Korea launched a ballistic missile in April 2009, it informed the International Maritime Organization in advance that it would set danger zones in the Sea of Japan and the Pacific Ocean. At that time, the Japanese and U.S. governments prepared themselves for the launch with the U.S. forces' early warning satellites and the Defense Ministry's warning and control radars. They also deployed Aegis-equipped destroyers in the Sea of Japan and the Air Self-Defense Force's early-warning aircraft. This time, the Japanese and U.S. governments are expected to prepare in a similar manner, according to officials.
North Korea announced the "satellite" will be launched southward from a launching station in Cholsan County, likely over open waters of the Yellow Sea and not into the Sea of Japan. The Japanese government will nevertheless consider issuing the shoot-down order as a precautionary measure. "We never know whether the satellite will really fly toward the Yellow Sea. In addition, some of Japan's remote islands are in the area," a Defense Ministry official said.
Prominent environmentalists in the United Kingdom are at loggerheads over whether Britain should pursue new nuclear power plants, in a clash that has revealed sharply divergent approaches to energy and climate change. Five leading environmentalists said abandoning plans for nuclear power would be a "serious environmental mistake," according to a letter submitted to Prime Minister David Cameron yesterday. 英国の新規原子力発電所建設を廻って、グリーン勢力内部で、その可否について禿しく意見が対立している。著名な5人の 環境運動家は昨日キャメロン首相宛の書簡で「原子力発電の中止は、環境保護上の重大な失策になる」と述べた。
"The gravity of the climate crisis necessitates a re-examination of deeply-held objections still shared by many in the green movement towards nuclear power, including, until recently some in our own number," wrote a group of top environmental writers and activists including Mark Lynas, George Monbiot, former Greenpeace head Stephen Tindale, Fred Pearce, and Michael Hanlon. 「地球温暖化の問題の重要さは、我々のグリーン勢力の一分を含めて深く支持されてきた原子力発電への反対意見について 再検討を必要とさせる」と書簡は述べている。グリーン勢力の論客で著名なMark Lynas, George Monbiot, Stephen Tindale (前グリーンピース代表), Fred Pearce, Michael Hanlonがその書簡に署名している。
The five took issue with a letter to Cameron from four former directors of Friends of the Earth who said pursuing nuclear power was too expensive and risky, and would put the UK's "energy future in the hands of the French." Instead, the former directors argued, Britain should follow the examples of Japan and Germany who decided to shutter their nuclear plants after the Fukushima nuclear meltdown. Both groups support greater investment in clean energy technology. この5人は前「地球の友」の幹部4人のキャメロン首相宛の書簡が原子力発電をリスクが多すぎコストが高いとして、ドイツや日本 同様に原発廃止を計画すべきとしていることに反論した。
But, the pro-nuclear environmentalists argue, "nuclear remains the only viable large-scale source of low-carbon baseload power available to energy consumers in the UK today." They contend that the "most urgent priority," for the environment and public health, should be to phase out coal. 原子力発電の肯定派は「原子力発電は低カーボンで実現可能な、大規模なエネルギーソースとして英国で唯一可能のもの」としている。
Japan and Germany have already begun to increase their dependence on fossil fuels, with Germany initiating plans for more coal and natural gas power plants and Japan importing soaring amounts of oil and gas. 日本とドイツは既に化石燃料への依存度を高めている。ドイツは石炭と天然ガスの発電プラントの計画を始めており、日本は莫大な 量の石油と天然ガスを輸入している。
Many of the group -- in particular Lynas and Monbiot -- have riled greens for switching their views on nuclear power, with Monbiot becoming a leading voice for pro-nuclear environmentalists in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear meltdown. (グリーン派の論客の)Lynas と Monbiotは原子力発電の肯定の主張を行うことでグリーン派をいらつかせている。
"Atomic energy has just been subjected to one of the harshest of possible tests, and the impact on people and the planet has been small," Monbiot wrote last year. Monbiotは昨年「原子力エネルギーは大変厳しいテストを(日本の震災と津波で)受けたが、人々と発電所への影響は軽微だった」 と書いた
A panel of American radiation experts this month estimated the increased risk of cancer for exposed workers at 0.002 percent, while preliminary United Nations analyses show that no member of the Japanese public was exposed to a dangerous dose. アメリカの放射線専門家パネルは今月、(日本の原発事故の)作業者の癌発生確率は0.002%増加し、初期的な国連の報告書は日本 国民で危険なレベルの放射線を浴びた人はいないとしている。
これについてWSJの記事。専門家:「健康へのインパクトは、実に、実に、マイナーなもの」 ttp://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2012/03/02/fukushima-health-impact-minimal/ The health threat to Japanese from radiation exposure in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident last year is extremely low, even if certain areas near the crippled plant could be rendered off-limits for years to come, according to a panel of American radiation experts who’ve studied the Japanese case for the past year. “From a radiological perspective, we expect the impact to be really, really minor,” said Kathryn Higley, a professor of nuclear engineering at Oregon State University. She was part of the group that spoke Thursday in Washington D.C. Fukushima Health Impact: Minimal? March 2, 2012, 8:01 PM JST
(Reuters) - The health impact of last year's Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan appears relatively small thanks partly to prompt evacuations, the chairman of a U.N. scientific body investigating the effects of radiation said on Tuesday.
Moreover, this estimate is undoubtedly too optimistic. Wind frequently does not blow when we need it. For example, as the BBC reported, the cold weather on December 21, 2010, was typical of a prolonged cold front, with high-pressure areas and little wind. Whereas wind power, on average, supplies 5% of the UK’s electricity, its share fell to just 0.04% that day. With demand understandably peaking, other sources, such as coal and gas, had to fill the gap. Making up for a 5% shortfall in supply is manageable, but the situation will change dramatically as the UK increases its reliance on wind power to reach the 31% target by 2020. Wind power becomes much more expensive when we factor in the large supplies of power that must be created for backup whenever the wind dies down.
英国の風力発電コストの見積が、大幅に過少であることが解った。それというのも風力というのは常にあるとは限らない為である。 英国では2010年12月21日に、高気圧が襲来して風が殆ど吹かないという事態が起こり、通常は英国の電力の5%を供給する風力発電 は、この日には0.04%にまで低下した。このため石炭火力やガス火力発電で、この落ち込みを補うことに成った。5%の落ち込みを 補完する事は可能ではあるけれど、英国が2020年に風力発電を31%にするというような事態であれば、大規模な補完用バックアップ (火力)発電所が不可欠であるため、風力発電のコストは現在の見込みよりも遥かに高くなる。 ttp://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/gone-with-the-wind Gone With the Wind 16 Mar 12 Bjorn Lomborg
>>202 The UK Carbon Trust estimates that the cost of expanding wind turbines to 40 gigawatts, in order to provide 31% of electricity by 2020, could run as high as £75 billion ($120 billion). *この評論がベースにしている英国の風力発電コスト試算というのは↑で、$120Bというものなので、この値自体がすでに 化石燃料の火力発電比べて高いのだけれど、それでもまだ過小評価だという。
Nonetheless, the lesson is clear: if the goal is not just to cut CO2 emissions, but also to use renewables to do it, the models show that the cost balloons to £188 billion for this decade and £36 billion every year after 2020. In effect, insisting on wind power means using energy that is far from competitive, does not help to avert climate change, and costs an extra £92 billion for the UK alone. *結局のところ、欧州の温暖化対策(Co2削減)のための「再生可能エネルギー」というのはコスト的に成り立たない。
これは米国のチャイナ・ウオッチャーのひとりであるMinxin PeiがFTに書いているもの ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b56c6002-6f7e-11e1-b3f9-00144feab49a.html#axzz1pVZB2R2W The ghost of Mao haunts China’s succession plans By Minxin Pei March 18, 2012 7:36 pm 毛沢東の亡霊が、中国の政権継承に出没する By Minxin Pei
For one thing, the Bo incident has revealed the deep rift within China’s top leadership over the distribution of power and the future direction of the party. By openly challenging the party’s long-established rules on personnel promotion, Mr Bo showed that he ? and many others in the party’s hierarchy ? will no longer abide by such rules, which they view as biased in favour of risk-averse and colourless bureaucrats. For the moment, the party establishment has won a decisive battle against such insurgents. But the existing system of distributing power among rival factions through an opaque arrangement is sure to antagonise ambitious and risk-taking players such as Mr Bo in the future when they feel they are short-changed by the system. Should such resentments intensify, the cherished elite unity, the glue that has held the party together since the Tiananmen crackdown in 1989, would be eroded, endangering the party’s survival. 薄熙来事件は中国政治のトップレベルに、権力の分配と共産党の将来の方向性についての深い亀裂のあることを示した。次期の 主席が権力者によって推薦されるという確立されたルールに挑戦した薄熙来やその支持者から見れば、そのルールはリスク回避と 官僚主義のなせるもので甘受するに値しない。今の時点では共産党エスタブリッシュメントが、薄熙来の反乱の抑えこみに成功した。 しかし既存の権力配分のシステム、対抗する派閥に不透明なやり方でそれを分配するというのは野心的でリスクティク指向の薄熙来 のような政治家をこの先とも敵に回す事だろう。そうした怒りや恨みが高まることがあれば、1989年の天安門事件のあとに共産党を ひとつに纏めるためのノリのように機能してきたエリートの結束がゆらぐことになる。それは共産党の生き残りにとっての危険を 意味する。
That Mr Bo could easily galvanise public opinion with his leftist populist rhetoric and antics should give the party another cause for concern. Chinese leaders have long thought they had banished the ghost of Mao, the only communist leader capable of rallying the masses to terrorise the party. Mr Bo’s remarkably effective campaign to tap into popular resentment at inequality and corruption suggests that, as long as the party’s policies perpetuate crony capitalism, future political entrepreneurs in his mode will come along and exploit widespread social discontent to further their personal ambitions. If anything, the most important lesson to be learnt by the party is not how to prevent the rise of another Mao-like figure, but that it must address the underlying socioeconomic conditions that brew leftist-populist radicalism. In practice, this requires undertaking liberal economic and political reforms to make China a more just and democratic society. 薄熙来が左派的なポピュリストのレトリックとパフォーマンスによって大衆の広い支持を獲得した事実も、共産党を憂慮させる。 中国の指導者らは毛沢東の亡霊を追い出したと、長きにわたって思ってきた。毛沢東は共産党の指導者の中で大衆を蜂起させ、 共産党を恐怖に陥れることの出来る唯一の指導者である。薄熙来のキャンペーンの注目すべき効率の良さは大衆の持つ格差や腐敗 への恨みを上手く利用している。将来の起業家的な政治家が薄熙来の示したモデルにならって社会的な問題や共産党の仲間内資本 主義の批判によって野心を満たすことの可能性を示唆する。共産党の学んだ最重要のレッスンというのは、毛沢東型の政治家の台 頭をいかに防ぐかと言うことではなくて、左派のポピュリストの過激主義の台頭の基礎条件となる社会的経済的な問題を検討すべ きということである。
When Mr Wang briefly sought asylum in the American consulate in Chengdu a month ago, public sentiment against Mr Bo exploded in cyberspace. Ordinary Chinese citizens were justifiably indignant that one of their top officials (Mr Wang had vice-ministerial rank) could perpetrate such a treasonous act. They were even more outraged that, 35 years after the end of the Cultural Revolution, political intrigue reminiscent of the infamous Lin Biao affair (when Mao’s designated successor tried to flee to the Soviet Union in 1971) could again dominate the national conversation and that they had little say in choosing their rulers. In this perfect political storm, Mr Bo’s fate was sealed. The question now is whether the party can turn this debacle into an opportunity for change. 先月、王立軍が成都のアメリカ領事館に短期的に亡命の試みをした時、薄熙来に反対する大衆のセンチメントがネットで爆発して いた。共産党のトップクラスの役人が、そんな背信行為を行うとは、と中国の一般市民は憤慨していた。文化大革命の後、35年を 経て林彪事件(毛沢東の後継者と目された彼は1971年にソビエト亡命を企てた)に類する政治的陰謀を思いださせることにも大衆 は憤慨していた。大衆の話題を独占する、そうした指導者の選択に大衆はほとんど関係がない。今回の政治的な嵐が過ぎて薄熙来 の命運は封印されたが、問題は共産党がこの事件を良い方向に変わる契機に出来るかである。
Intelligence Minister Ali Falahian, Iran’s senior spokesman on sanctions, said Sunday, March 18, that if the US and Europe think they can ignore international law to promote their interests, they should know that Iran will respond in kind everywhere it can. “I suggest that the West take seriously our threat to close the Strait of Hormuz,” he said in Tehran’s first response to the SWIFT decision to sever ties with Iranian banks to enforce European sanctions on its nuclear program. イランの情報相Ali Falahianは18日にアメリカと欧州が国際法を無視し自己の利益追求に走るのであれば、彼らはイランが それに対抗することを知るべきと述べ「私は西側諸国がホルムズ海峡封鎖の脅威を深刻に受け止めるように勧める」と述べた。 これはSWIFTに依る国際銀行決済システムでのイランへの制裁後の最初のリアクション; ttp://www.debka.com/article/21837/ Iran threatens Hormuz and world oil supply after trade links cutoff DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 18, 2012, 9:11 AM (GMT+02:00)
>>236 モハメド・エラリアンはポルトガルの先行きを懸念しているけれど、同じように酷い不動産バブルのあったスペインの 状況も安心出来るものではない、とWolfgang MunchauがFTに書いている。 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/28a4cfdc-6f6b-11e1-9c57-00144feab49a.html#axzz1pVZB2R2W There is no Spanish siesta for the eurozone By Wolfgang Munchau March 18, 2012 7:34 pm
In Spain, most of the toxic debt is held in the private sector. The debt level of the private sector, namely households and non-financial corporations, was 227.3 per cent of gross domestic product at the end of 2010, according to Eurostat.
The best index for Spain is the new series by the National Institute of Statistics, which shows the overall index for house prices fell by 11.2 per cent last year alone, but was only down 21.7 per cent from the peak in the third quarter of 2007. We should remember the Spanish bubble was much more extreme than others, but prices have only come down by around a fifth. In the Madrid region the movements have been more vigorous, with a peak-to-trough fall of 29.5 per cent.
Spain remains stuck in a worsening debt trap, out of which default will be the only escape. If it pursued the agreed policies, it would end up where Greece, Portugal and Ireland are ? under a rescue umbrella. This is the most likely scenario for Spain.
●Continuation of North Korean Missile Development ●Consistent with Regime Tactics ●Steps for the U.S.?With or Without a Missile Launch Even without a missile launch, the U.S. should:
Continue missile defense development and deployment and call on South Korea to deploy a multi-layered missile defense system that is interoperable with a U.S. regional missile network.
Approve Seoul’s request to extend the permissible limits on its missile development beyond the current 300- kilometer range restriction.
Encourage Japan to maintain its missile defense efforts.
Continue and augment joint military exercises with South Korea and Japan to enhance alliance deterrent and defensive capabilities.
Reexamine U.S. policies regarding defectors. When Wang Lijun sought to defect to the United States, he reportedly was not granted asylum because it would have made Vice President Xi Jinping’s visit awkward.[3] If this is in fact the case, it was a terrible, shortsighted decision, for Wang offered an enormous potential wealth of information. Wang would have had a thorough understanding of how the various security agencies, including the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of State Security, and parts of the Chinese armed forces, interact?information which is notoriously hard to obtain. And Wang could have provided significant insights into not only Bo, but also other potential members of the incoming PSC. There should be an investigation of exactly what happened after Wang entered the U.S. consulate, and steps should be taken to ensure that the admission or rejection of such people is based on a broad concept of national interest and not narrow political considerations
What is needed is a roadmap with a stronger and more flexible exchange rate, more effective liquidity and monetary management, with higher quality supervision and regulation, with a more well-developed financial market, with flexible deposit and lending rates, and finally with the opening up of the capital account, 「必要とされるのは、より柔軟な為替レート、より効果的な金融政策、質の高い規制、より進んだ金融市場、預金金利と貸出 金利の自由化、そして最後に資本取引の自由化、これらについての工程表である」
If all that happens, there is no reason why the renminbi will not reach the status of a reserve currency occupying a position on par with China's economic status. 「それら全てが実現したとき、人民元は、中国の経済的地位に相応しい準備通貨としての地位を得ない訳がない」
The EIA estimates that the Polish shale gas reserves cover more than 300 years of domestic consumption. The unconventional reserves exceed the conventional ones by the factor of 32. So far 109 licences have been granted to national and international groups in Poland. Poland imported more than 10bn cubic metres of natural gas from Russia in 2011. On top of it, coal is used for 90% of electric power generation. Therefore the political support for the development of domestic shale gas production is exemplary. However, the so far disappointing results from test drillings have somewhat dampened the hope of an imminent “sheikdom at the Vistula”. ExxonMobil announced that the results of the two exploration drillings in the Baltic Sea Basin had fallen short of expectations. The gas flow was significantly below comparable sources in the Marcellus and Barnett Shale in the US, making industrial-scale extraction impossible. Last year, 3Legs Resources and BNK had already reported disappointing results. That said, we believe that a trial and error process is normal at the beginning of such a development. The initial results were disappointing in the US as well. Explorers were moving along a learning curve of seismics and geological understanding, and eventually the exploration success rate improved. EIAの推測ではポーランドのシェールガス埋蔵量は国内消費の300年分程度としている。ポーランドはロシアから輸入する天然ガス と国内の石炭に依存するのでシェールガス開発に前向きである。 ExxonMobilなどの行った初期のシェールガス掘削では期待を裏 切る結果が出ているが開発が最初から順調にはゆかないのは常のことで米国でもそうであった。学習効果を高めながら開発が進む と期待される。
Along with Poland, Ukraine seems to become one of the biggest players in the European shale gas sector. According to IEA Ukraine holds the fourth-largest shale gas deposit in Europe at 1.2 trillion cubic metres. Not the least because of its relatively low density of population, Ukraine seems made for the development of shale gas deposits. However, so far the Ukrainian politicians have mainly paid lip service and not taken any significant steps. 欧州のシェールガスでポーランドと共に主要なプレーアーになりそうなのはウクライナでEIAはウクライナが世界第四位の1.2兆 立法メートルの埋蔵を持つと推測している。ただしウクライナでのシェールガス開発は遅れている。
At the moment, Ukraine consumes about four times more gas than the European average, when related to its GDP. It has therefore one of the lowest rates of energy efficiency in the world. The potential in the Lublin Basin could turn Poland and Ukraine into a net exporter of natural gas. Estimates expect 1.4bn cubic metres on the Polish side of the Lublin Basin alone. On the Ukrainian side the deposits should be at least of equal magnitude. Geologists can see a striking similarity between the Lublin Basin and the Barnett Shale in Texas, and indeed the more substantial thickness of the Silurian layers should result in significantly higher potential than in the US. In the Lublin Basin the Silurian layers seem to be ten times as thick (1,300 metres) as in average US shales. ウクライナのシェールガスを持つと見られる地層構造はテキサス州のそれに酷似していて、該当地層の大きな層があるので有望と 見られている。Lublin Basin the Silurian地層は米国のシェールガス層の平均値の10倍に達する(後略)
On April 20, 2011, the MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI) sponsored a symposium on Managing Large-Scale Penetration of Intermittent Renewables that brought together experts in electricity generation, transmission system management, and regulation to discuss the impacts of largescale penetration of intermittent renewables on electrical power systems. (ry
?? Framing the issue. Twenty-nine states, the European Union (EU), and countries around the world have adopted policies and incentives to encourage deployment of low-emission renewable elec tricity generating technologies. This has led to a rapid increase in wind and solar generation, both of which are intermittent non-dispatchable electricity sources. While their deployment remains small today in aggregate, some regions of the US and some countries have sub stantial amounts of wind power. This operational experience informs the challenges facing technology, policy, and regulation in managing widespread large-scale deployment.
Intermittent renewable generation policies and regulation. Policies have been adopted around the world to promote deployment of renewable generation. These policies have been successful in increasing the capacity of wind and solar generation in various national systems, but the cost and operating implications of these policies are not fully appreciated. It is clear that policies that regulate investment, operations, and rates will undergo significant change. It is becoming clear that the total costs and consequences of these policies were not fully understood. In order to ensure the goals of reliability and economic efficiency while simultaneously lowering carbon emissions, substantial regulatory changes are needed. This is further complicated by the location of renewable resources, which is often remote from major load centers, which means transmission may cross multiple jurisdictions, greatly complicating siting options and opportunities.(ry ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://techtv.mit.edu/videos/18166-managing-large-scale-penetration-of-intermittent-renewables ビデオ:MITのエネルギー・イニシアチブのシンポジウム、1時間26分03秒(英語)
ソシエテ・ジェネラルのコメンタリー(FTアルファビレ) From SocGen’s cross asset research team on Monday (our emphasis):
Chinese property sales and prices have made for dour reading recently. Property sales value contracted 20% year on year in the two months ending in February. This is not only the worst result since the property slide in 2008 ? it’s the worst result since the series began in 2006.
It’s particularly worrying to note that the slope of the fall is as sharp as the decline in January 2008. Back then, sales fell by a further 20% year on year after the January decline. This time, the comparables are a bit better, since property sales were rising through 2007, and have been stagnant over 2011. But if we assume that the monthly sales patterns in 2008 repeat in 2012, then sales should trough at around -24% year on year ttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/03/19/928801/chinese-property-alert/ Chinese property *alert* Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Mar 19 11:32.
Now that Bo is history, the party has to move on. 今や薄熙来は失脚して、歴史の中の人と成ったが、共産党は先に進まなくてはならない
Obviously, the shortlist for the next Politburo Standing Committee has to be redrawn. In all likelihood, Bo’s elimination from the race should make the process less contentious and may help produce a more “harmonious” new leadership team. However, the damage to the party’s prestige by this episode is incalculable. Since the Tiananmen crackdown in June 1989, the party has worked hard to maintain a facade of unity within the top leadership. A key lesson drawn by the party from the Tiananmen catastrophe was that political infighting among top leaders emboldened pro -democracy protesters and paralyzed the party’s decision-making process. Splits within the leadership must be avoided at all cost. The Bo incident shows that the divisions within the party are real and deep. At the moment, it’s unclear what Bo’s friends and backers will do, but they surely must not have been very happy with this dramatic turn of events. An intriguing question is whether Bo and his supporters have enough staying power to make a comeback during a future political crisis and take on the Party. Could Bo turn into a Chinese Boris ? Boris Yeltsin, that is? 明らかに、共産党政治局常務委員会の人選は薄熙来の更迭によって、対立的ではないものになって、より「調和社会をめざす」 指導者たちによって占められるようになるのだろう。とは言え今回のエピソードで共産党の権威は傷ついたわけで、1989年6月の 天安門事件以降の共産党の見せかけの結束というのがゆらいだ。天安門事件で共産党指導部の学んだことは民主化問題を巡る指導 部の意思決定プロセスの闘争は、無条件・絶対的にに避けなくてはならないということである。(それ故)薄熙来の事件は共産党 内部の亀裂が深いことを示す。現時点では薄熙来の仲間や支持者が、如何に対応するかは不明である。しかし彼らが今回の結末を 喜んでいないことは明白である。興味ある質問は、薄熙来とその支持者が、次回の政治危機にカムバックを果たす事のできるよう な存続を図ることが出来るだろうか、ということである。薄熙来は中国のエリツインになることができるだろうか?
More importantly, Bo’s departure from the political scene has clarified the strategic choices facing the party. Had Bo succeeded in getting a coveted spot on the Politburo Standing Committee, the leftist-populist elements in the party and Chinese society might have a representative advocating their cause (whether Bo would do so is an entirely different matter). With Bo gone, the party’s new leadership will have to pick one of the two paths that now lay ahead. One is to stay the course, maintaining one-party rule and trying to sustain economic growth under the state-capitalist model. The other is to revive reform, not just economic reform but also democratization. 重要なことは政治シーンからの薄熙来の脱落という事件は共産党にとって二者択一の戦略的な意思決定を明確化したことである。 薄熙来が共産党政治局常務委員会のメンバーとなっていれば、共産党内部の左派ポピュリストたちが共産党と中国社会を選挙に よる代表制に変えることになったかも知れない(薄熙来が実際にそうしたか否かは別問題であるが)薄熙来の失脚により共産党 指導部は路線の選択を求められる。その一は現状維持で共産党独裁の下での経済発展を目指し国家資本主義をすすめる。そのニは 政治的及び経済的改革を進め民主化を図る。
If the party’s new leadership doesn’t alter the country’s present course, such frustrations will continue to grow and create opportunities for ambitious politicians like Bo to exploit in seeking power. The difference is, of course, when such opportunities occur in the future, people like Bo could be leading a radicalized opposition with mass popular followings ? a nightmarish scenario the Communist Party should do everything to avoid. 共産党の新指導部が現状維持路線を採るのであれば、現状の中国社会に内在するフラストレーションは継続して増大し、薄熙来の ような野心的な政治家が権力奪取を目指すような次の機会を創りだすだろう。今回と次回との違いがあるとすれば、薄熙来のよう な政治家は次回のチャンスにはラディカル化した反対勢力と巨大な大衆の支持者を従えるということだろう。それは共産党指導部 が何をおいても避けなくてはならない悪夢である。
One of the most popular currency trades is back in fashion, thanks to Japan's efforts to keep pushing down the yen's value. 一時期とても人気のあった通貨取引(キャリー・トレード)が戻ってきた。日本銀行が円の価値を下げようとしていることが背景 にある。 Known as the yen "carry trade," investors are borrowing money in yen, where rates are low, and exchanging it for currencies in countries where rates are high?such as Australia, Canada and Mexico?profiting from the difference. Investors can also execute a carry trade by borrowing the lower-yielding yen to buy bonds denominated in higher-yielding currencies, such as local-currency government debt in places like Mexico and Brazil. 「円キャリー・トレード」というのは低金利の円を借りて高金利通貨である豪ドルや加ドル、メキシコペソなどに投資して利ざやを 稼ぐものであるが、円を借りて高イールドの国債、つまりメキシコやブラジルの国債に投資することも行われる。 The trade was hugely popular, and profitable, for much of the 1990s, though it had become less so in recent years. That is because central banks' loose monetary policies in the U.S. and Europe kept borrowing rates for banks artificially low, increasing the appeal of using the dollar and the euro instead of the yen. この円キャリー・トレードは90年代に広く行われてとても旨みがあった。最近ではそうではなかったのだが、それは欧州や米国の中 央銀行が低金利政策に踏み切ったために円ではなく、ユーロやドルでのキャリー・トレードが行われる状況になっていた為だ。 But the yen is becoming more attractive to fund these trades, investors say. Japan's central bank is widely expected to keep flooding the market with yen, keeping the currency's value and interest rates in check. The yen already has weakened 8% against the dollar this year. At the same time, investors are reducing expectations for how long the Federal Reserve may pump money into the U.S. financial system, and Treasury yields have crept up, albeit slightly. しかし日本銀行が円の価値を下げるために、市場に円を潤沢に供給する政策を続けると広く信じられ始めたことから、円は再び、 キャリ・ートレードの旨みのある通貨とみなされるように成った。今年に入って円は既に対ドルで8%下落している。これと同時 に投資家はFRBが何時まで市場にマネーを供給し続けるつもりなのか、ということについて期待値を下げてきている。すでに財務 省債券のイールドは、まだ僅かな幅ではあるものの、上向き傾向にある。
A weakening currency is key to the carry trade, because it means investors have less to repay when they cash out their trade. 弱まりつつある通貨というのがキャリー・トレードのキイである。何故なら投資家はトレードを清算する時に支払う金額が少なく て済むからである。 That has brought the yen carry trade "much, much more in vogue," said Douglas Borthwick, managing director of Faros Trading in Stamford, Conn. そういうわけで、円のキャリート・レードは「とても、とても流行っている」とコネチカットのスタムフォードのFaros Trading の常務であるDouglas Borthwickがいう。 "The last time that [yen carry trades] really would've worked was really in the early '90s," he said. With "the view now, though, that the yen is going to depreciate…using it as a funding currency makes a lot of sense." Mr. Borthwick issued a trade recommendation to clients on Jan. 31 to buy the Canadian dollar against the yen. That trade has since returned about 11%, he said. 「この前、円のキャリー・トレードが流行ったのは90年代初期だが、現時点の見方は円は弱くなるというものなので、ファンディ ング通貨として、円でキャリートレードすることは大いにセンスがある」Mr. Borthwickは1月31日のアドバイスで円を売ってカナ ダ・ドルを買うよう勧告している。「このアドバイスは既に11%のリターンを上げている」と彼はいう。 The carry trade has seen some currencies soar against the yen. The Mexican peso has skyrocketed nearly 20% against the yen in 2012, compared with a 9% gain against the dollar. The South African rand is up 16% against the yen and nearly 7% versus the dollar, while the Brazilian real is up 11% against the yen and 2.5% against the dollar. キャリー・トレードの影響で一部の通貨が円に対して高騰している。2012年にメキシコ・ペソは対円で20%高騰している(対ドル では9%)、南アフリカのランドは対円で16%高騰(対ドルでは7%)、ブラジルのリアルは対円で11%高騰(対ドルで2.5%)して いる。 In the week ended March 13, speculators placed their largest bets that the yen would depreciate against the dollar since April 2011, with bearish yen wagers exceeding bullish positions in the futures market by $6.4 billion, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 3月13日の週に、CFTCに依れば、2011年4月以降最大の円安に賭ける動きが見られ円の先物相場で円安に賭けるポジションが円高に 賭けるものよりも$6.4B多くなっている。 In the 1990s and early 2000s, the yen was the main currency used to fund carry trades, because interest rates in Japan were well below those elsewhere. The difference became less stark during the financial crisis, as central banks in the U.S. and Europe cut their rates. 90年代と2000年代初期は円はキャリー・トレードの主要ファンド通貨であった。日本の金利が他国よりも安かったためである。金融 危機後には、欧州と米国の中央銀行の利下げで、その金利差は縮小した。
Investors are still using dollars and euros to put on carry trades. And that is likely to continue as long as interest rates stay low in the U.S. and Europe. "If they've all got zero rates, why not fund in all three?" said Goldman Sachs Asset Management Chairman Jim O'Neill. "But what is changing at the margin…is the yen is the most attractive to use." 投資家は依然としてキャリー・トレードにドルやユーロを使っている。それは米国や欧州の低金利が続く以上は継続しそうである。 「もし、ユーロ、ドル、円がゼロ金利なら、これら3つの通貨を使わない手はない」とゴールドマンサックス・アセットマネジメント の会長であるJim O'Neillが言っている。「でも、わずかに違いが生まれていて、円は最もキャリートレードにとって魅力的だ」 Not everyone agrees the yen will continue to fall. During the periods of market turmoil last year that accompanied developments in Europe's debt crisis, investors flocked to the safety of the yen, driving it to post-World War II highs. John Taylor, chairman of FX Concepts, one of the world's largest currency funds, said investors also shouldn't be too quick to rule out any further easing by the Fed. 円がこの先とも弱含むという見方には、必ずしも全員が賛成しない。欧州金融危機の最悪期に投資家はセーフ通貨として円を買った ので円がWWII後の最高値を付けることになった。最大級の通貨ファンドのひとつ、FX Conceptsの会長のJohn Taylorは、投資家はFRB が将来金融緩和に踏み切る可能性を除外して考えるべきではないと言う。 "If the U.S. economy does go into the same kind of slowdown [as in 2011], then I would expect to see the yen strengthen again," Mr. Taylor said. He added that the U.S. economy could start to weaken in the second quarter?which could prompt Fed action later in the year?so the window for yen-funded carry trades should stay open just for the next month or so. Amer Bisat, a partner at Traxis Partners, a $1.5 billion hedge fund, says investors are switching to the yen from the euro to fund bets on Asian currencies, including the Korean won and the Taiwanese dollar. "The market seems to have really turned this time," Mr. Bisat said. Mr. Taylor は「米国経済が昨年のように途中でスローダウンすることがあれば円は強くなると思う」という。彼はQ2以降に米国 経済の弱含む可能性があリ、年後半にFRBの緩和があり得るという。その場合、円キャリー・トレードの旨みのある期間は来月まで あたりであろうという。$1.5BのヘッジファンドTraxis PartnersのパートナーであるAmer Bisatは投資家がアジアの通貨、韓国の ウォンとか台湾ドルにかけるファンディング通貨として、ユーロから円に切り替えているという。「市場は、今回は本当に(円安 方向に)変わったように見える」という。
Hanover, Germany ? Shiny black solar panels are as common a sight as baroque church spires in this industrial hub, thanks to government subsidies that have helped make Germany a world leader in solar technology. Now, sudden subsidy cuts here and elsewhere in Europe have thrown the industry into crisis just short of its ultimate goal: a price to generate solar energy that is no higher than fossil-fuel counterparts. ドイツ政府の太陽光パネルへの政府補助金は、この分野でドイツを世界のリーダーにしたが、今や突然の政府補助金の削減で 欧州の太陽光発電業界を危機に直面させた。政府の目指したゴールは、まだ達成されていないのだが、そのゴールとは太陽光 発電コストを化石燃料と同等にすることである。
German policymakers indicated last week that they planned to cut once-generous subsidies as much as 29 percent by the end of the month, on top of a 15 percent cut in January, although some details were still being negotiated after protests from the solar industry. Britain and Italy have made similar moves, and in January, Spain abandoned its subsidies altogether, prompting outrage from the solar industry. ドイツの政策立案者は先週、太陽光パネルへの政府補助金を、月末から29%削減する案を示し、これは1月の15%削減への上乗 せである。詳細については太陽光発電業界の抗議から交渉が続いている。英国とイタリアも同様の動きを示している。1月には スペイン政府がすべての政府補助金を凍結し太陽光発電業界が激怒した。
Just months ago, a solar firm planting a field of solar panels atop one of Hanover’s many sprawling warehouses would have been sure to turn a profit. Now, one solar developer who plans to do that says he’ll be lucky to break even now that the subsidies are drying up. 1ヶ月前には、ハノーバーの倉庫群の屋根に太陽光パネルを設置すれば確実な利益が得られたが、今や太陽光発電業界は、同じよ うな計画が政府補助金の削減でブレーク・イーブンになればラッキーだという。 (略) Though solar energy supplied 3.1 percent of Germany’s electricity needs in 2011 ? hampered in part by the country’s famously dreary weather ? the industry consumed closer to half of the overall renewable subsidies, which also support other energy sources such as wind and biomass. ドイツの太陽光発電は2011年の電力需要の3.1%を満たすに過ぎないが、太陽光発電業界は政府の再生可能エネルギー補助金の 半分を占めている。太陽光以外にはバイオや風力が補助金を受けている。
これは先に紹介したスペイン経済についてのFT掲載の評論 ---------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://jbpress.ismedia.jp/articles/-/34802 ユーロ圏の危機にスペインのシエスタはない 2012.03.21(水) Financial Times By Wolfgang Munchau(2012年3月19日付 英フィナンシャル・タイムズ紙)
何故、大国である中国は、友好国としてろくでもない駄目国しか持てないのか、というのを論じていてちょっと興味 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/03/20/the_loneliest_superpower?page=0,0 The Loneliest Superpower How did China end up with only rogue states as its real friends? BY MINXIN PEI | MARCH 20, 2012
For one thing, China is situated in one of the toughest geopolitical neighborhoods in the world. It shares borders with Japan, India, and Russia; three major powers which have all engaged in military conflicts with China in the 20th century. It still has unresolved territorial disputes with Japan and India, and the Russians fear a horde of Chinese moving in and overwhelming the depopulated Russian far east.
China may be North Korea's patron, but the two countries dislike each other intensely. ・・・・
Of all its neighbors, only Pakistan has produced genuine security payoffs for China. But as internal turmoil weakens the Pakistani state, the net benefits of this relationship are decreasing.
Farther afield, China may have a few countries with which it is truly on friendly terms, such as Hugo Chavez's Venezuela, Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe, and the Castros' Cuba. But these are, by and large, states headed by political pariahs that are skilled manipulators of great powers. Besides access to natural resources and backing at the U.N., important as they are, good relations with such states generate little value for Beijing. In any case, the rulers of these states are old and ailing. When new, better democrats take their place, the relationship with China may cool.(ry
BHP Billiton, the world’s biggest mining company by market value, has warned of “flattening” iron ore demand from China, in the most bearish comment yet from any leading miner about the world’s largest consumer of the commodity.
これはエコノミスト掲載の評論 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.economist.com/node/21550300 China’s economy:Fears of a hard landing Mar 17th 2012 | BEIJING | from the print edition China ran a massive trade deficit in February. What does it say about the economy 中国経済:ハードランディングの恐怖 エコノミスト 17日
In the past three years, China has also enjoyed a terrific investment boom. And with the property market weakening, the construction industry is also liable to slow again. Is the stage therefore set for a repeat of the surpluses of 2004-07?
The difference now is the nature of China’s investment boom, which has concentrated on roads, railways and houses, not factories. In 2009, for example, loans for fixed investment increased dramatically. But only 10% were made to manufacturers, says Nicholas Lardy of the Peterson Institute. About 50% went to infrastructure projects. In his annual review of the government’s work this month, Mr Wen noted that China had shut down outdated factories capable of making as much as 150m tonnes of cement and 31.2m tonnes of iron.
Efforts to rationalise heavy industries and remove excess capacity should help prevent a repeat of the big external surpluses of yesteryear. That should, in turn, placate China’s irritable trading partners. But things might not be so simple. Take one particularly fragmented and dirty industry. At the government’s urging, one of its bigger firms has bought over a dozen others, eight of which were later shut down. That has reduced the industry’s capacity to flood the world with its products. The problem? These products are rare earths.
China’s ouster of senior Communist Party official Bo Xilai last week added a new dimension to an opaque leadership transition under way in Beijing this year: news about the succession has become tradable. Speculation of a coup yesterday spread on the Internet, helping spark the biggest jump in credit-default swaps for Chinese government bonds in four months. China’s capital was calm hours after the alleged disruption, with foreign executives including former U.S. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez attending a meeting in the Zhongnanhai leadership compound. 共産党の高位の政治家である薄熙來の更迭の後、中国の政権の継承についての不透明さが、政権継承の安定性についての 噂を生んでいる。 昨日インターネットでクーデター発生かとの憶測が流され、中国の国債のCDSが4ヶ月ぶりの高値をつける事件があった。この 動揺は米国商務省長官のCarlos Gutierrezが中南海での会議に出席するなどのニュースで収まった。
After publication of the report, the cost of insuring Chinese government debt using credit-default swaps jumped 10 basis points to 107, set for the biggest daily gain in basis points since Nov. 9, according to data provider CMA. Today, contracts to insure China’s sovereign debt for five years against non- payment fell 1 basis point to 106 as of 12:11 p.m. in Hong Kong, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc prices. 噂の流れた後で中国の国債CDSは10ポイント上昇し、107をつけた。今日は5年もの国債CDSは12:11 p.m. で1ポイント下落し106を つけている。
“The best way to prevent the severely damaging result of these sensational rumors is to open mainstream media” and move to democratization, Li Cheng, a scholar at the Washington-based Brookings Institution said in an e-mail. “It will be a tough decision to make from the authorities’ perspective, but sooner or later China will move in that direction as state-society relations have profoundly changed.” ブルッキングス研究所の中国専門家であるLi Chengは「こうした噂に依る金融市場の動揺を避けるために、最も望ましいのは政府 が情報を公開し、メインストリームメディアがそれを報道することだ」という。「それは現在の中国政府には困難なことであろう けれど、中国はその方向に、遅かれ早かれ進まざるを得ない」(後略)
北朝鮮の最近の対米交渉を評して、ナショナル・インタレストのDoug Bandowの評論 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://nationalinterest.org/commentary/koreas-cute-leader-makes-deal-6647 Moreover, aid strengthens the government and lengthens its rule. Even if assistance is not directly diverted, food shipments free up resources for use elsewhere.ttp://nationalinterest.org/commentary/koreas-cute-leader-makes-deal-6647 The United States should step back as it encourages resumption of negotiations. Other than following through with its promised food shipments, Washington should leave aid to China, which continues to keep the Kim dynasty afloat, the North’s other neighbors and private NGOs. The situation facing the North Korean people is tragic, but it is a result of their government’s policies. No one wants innocents to suffer for their leaders’ brutal failures, but that’s why Washington should not block private assistance. At least such shipments would offer no de facto political endorsement.
Moreover, aid strengthens the government and lengthens its rule. Even if assistance is not directly diverted, food shipments free up resources for use elsewhere.
Balancing Regional Prioritites
Most important, American officials should inform both the ROK and Japan that the United States plans to phase out its military forces in both countries, leaving them with responsibility for their own security. They should plan accordingly.
Moreover, the ROK and Tokyo have turned into major international players able to deploy whatever militaries they believe necessary. They should no longer be dependent on Washington for their defense.
That especially applies to the South, which enjoys a 40-to-1 economic advantage over the North yet spent a decade relying on American military support while generously subsidizing its supposed enemy. (Korea's 'Cute Leader' Makes a Deal Doug Bandow | March 20, 2012) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 簡単に言うとアメリカは人道支援から手を引き、それは中国に任せるべきであり、対北朝鮮の安全保障については全面的に韓国や 日本に任せて、手を引くべきだというもの。まあDoug Bandowは以前からそういう見方の人であるけれど、韓国も日本も自分の国 の安全保障を自分で賄えるようになるべき、という主張は耳にいたいというか(ry
Given the hurdles to infrastructure projects across India, there's good news from Tamil Nadu. The prolonged shutdown at the Kudankulam nuclear power plant has ended following chief minister J Jayalalithaa's decision to back the Rs 13,000 crore project. But, while accompanied by a welcome area development package, this official nod may not dampen the ongoing anti-Kudankulam agitation. So, police must use utmost care in dealing with protesters. And the government must go all out to assuage local concerns about safety and possible damage to agricultural lands, fisheries, etc. Even a year after Japan's Fukushima, popular fears about nuclear installations remain, as the roadblocks to Maharashtra`s Jaitapur nuclear power project show. Given such projects are massive, involve high costs and foreign expertise, it's not hard to see how easily local protests can be politicised and manipulated. Transparency and engagement are thus all the more necessary to counter Luddite propaganda and boost awareness of nuclear energy's benefits. That goes not just for Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra, both no longer power surplus states.
The point is, public concerns must be addressed sensitively, interactively - and swiftly. India's big plans to raise nuclear power capacity - to 63,000 MW by 2032 - brook no delay. With domestic energy consumption slated to grow by an average 6% annually, we need a diversified energy basket. To match emissions targets and developmental aims, we can't depend solely on polluting fossil fuels nor be over-reliant on renewables, which draw heavily on land and other resources. Fast-growing India needs nuclear power as well, for its twin benefits: it's both clean and can cater to people on a mass scale.
Another question lies in whether emerging-market economies can post robust growth amid these uncertainties. Mather argued that expectations on emerging-market economies would suffer a pullback in coming months and once this happens, investors would again rush out of emerging market assets and the dollar would reap the benefits. “We cut back most of our emerging-market exposure,” said Mr. Mather, citing a notable shift for a company that has long been bullish on that market, especially Asia. “The dollar should do reasonably better in the near term because, relatively speaking, the U.S. growth is doing better than the euro zone, the U.K. and many other countries.”
今日のWSJアジア版の準社説、レビュー&アウトルック、中国の薄熙来更迭事件を評して。少し辛めの味付けで、皮肉っぽい; --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304724404577295060978784338.html REVIEW & OUTLOOK ASIA Updated March 21, 2012, 2:42 p.m. ET China's Coup Jitters Chinese citizens understand their government is not as stable as it claims. 中国のクーデターの緊張:中国国民は政府が、言っているほどには安定していないことを理解した
Rumors of a coup in Beijing ricocheted around the Chinese Internet on Tuesday and even caused the cost of credit default swaps on Chinese debt to rise slightly. That's remarkable considering there wasn't one iota of evidence that shots were fired at the Diaoyutai State Guest House or tanks were taking to the streets, as viral microblog posts had it. 火曜日に中国のインターネットではクーデターの噂が流れ、中国の国債のCDSが少しばかり値上がりするという事件があった。 ツイッターで囁かれた、釣魚台國賓館で発砲とか、戦車が市中に出動とか、そういう証拠が全く無いにもかかわらず、それが 起きるというのは注目すべきことである。
But then consider that a month ago, Wang Lijun, an official of vice ministerial rank, sought asylum in the U.S. Consulate in Chengdu. Last week, his boss Bo Xilai, the popular party secretary of Chongqing, was dismissed from his post six months before a national leadership transition. In these strange days, it's easy to see why Chinese citizens may believe reports of a coup. しかし1ヶ月前に副大臣クラスの王立軍が成都のアメリカ領事館に亡命を求めたことや先週、重慶書記で人気のあった薄熙来が 更迭されたこと、それが国の政権継承の6ヶ月前に起こったことを思えば、そういう奇妙なことの起こるこの時期に、中国の国民 がクーデターの噂を信じたことは不思議ではない。
But is this arrangement really so stable? Power is now shared on an alternating basis by the Shanghai or "princeling" faction (former Party Secretary Jiang Zemin and the presumptive next one, Xi Jinping) and the Communist Youth League faction (current Party Secretary Hu Jintao). This sets up a dynamic of the current ruling faction sharing power with its presumptive successors in the other faction, a delicate balance to maintain over time. でも、クーデターの噂というのは、それほど奇妙なものだろうか? 中国の権力は上海派閥あるいは太子党の一派(江沢民や習近平 の属する派閥)と共産党青年団派(胡主席の派閥)で共有されてきており、それは現在の政権派閥から次期には別の派閥に移ること を意味し、権力のデリケートなバランス維持の行われていることを示す。
And because paramount leader Deng Xiaoping picked Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, this year will mark the first transition not determined by the revolutionary generation. In 2002, Jiang Zemin tried to prolong his hold on power and pack the new Politburo with his proteges. No doubt Hu Jintao is trying to do the same. ケ小平は後継者に江沢民と胡錦濤を選んだのだが、今年は革命第一世代が後継者を指名しない最初の年になる。2002年位は江沢民が 権力保持の長期化を狙って政治局常務委員会を自己の派閥で占めた。胡錦濤が同じ事をしても何の不思議もない。
The party has been able to keep internal strife under control by avoiding ideological struggle over the last 20 years. The factions have competed for important posts and the spoils of power, but they ruled by consensus. The public was simply told to believe in the myth of a monolithic party and ignore the men squabbling behind the curtain. 過去20年間、中国共産党はイデオロギー闘争を避けて内部闘争の管理を行うことが出来た。派閥は重要ポストを争い権力と特権を 争うが、それはコンセンサスのルールで運用される。国民は一枚岩の共産党という神話を信じカーテンの裏の小競り合いを無視し てきた・
This technocratic pragmatism may now be breaking down. For instance, Bo Xilai appealed to leftists' disgust with bourgeois individualism and public unhappiness with income inequality, a tactic that alarmed some leaders. Since his dismissal, leftist websites and commentators have also been silenced. このテクノクラート的実用主義というのが今や破綻したのかも知れない。例えば薄熙来は国民の収入格差に対する不満やブルジョア への左翼的な嫌悪感にアピールしたのだが、そのやり方は一部の指導者をして警戒させるものだった。彼の更迭に伴い左翼的な一部 のWrbサイトやコメンテーターが沈黙させられている。
But there are plenty of other voices on the "right" advocating liberal political reform. Ten years ago, the prospect of achieving middle-class incomes made most intellectuals unwilling to rock the boat. Now they feel secure enough to demand more rights. The party sees this as evidence of Western infiltration, and it is tightening control over the media and launching new campaigns to promote the spirit of self-sacrifice. しかしそれ以外に、リベラルな政治改革を求める広範な声がある。10年前には中流階級の収入を達成するという見込みが殆どの 知識人をして意義を唱えることを肯定させなかった。今や彼らは、それ以上の権利を求めている。共産党はこれを西欧(思想)の 侵入とみなしてメディアの規制を強め、自己犠牲を求めるキャンペーン(=雷峰に学べ)を始めている
This return of ideology could make it difficult for the party to apportion power neatly between the factions. This time, Bo Xilai was replaced by Zhang Dejiang, a more moderate member of the same faction. But if the factions come to stand for policy platforms, they will naturally start to play for keeps. Instead of rotating through positions as they currently do, politicians and their proteges will develop personal strongholds, especially in the military. From there it's a short hop to a real coup attempt like the one Mao's designated successor Lin Biao was supposedly plotting in 1971, before he died in a mysterious plane crash. このイデオロギーの回帰というのは共産党にとって派閥間に適切に権力を分配するという手法をやりにくくする。今回は薄熙来は 同じ派閥でより温和的な張徳江に変えられた。しかし派閥が政策分野に重きをおくことになれば、それは自然に政策保全のために 動くことになり、今のような地位のローテーションではなく政治家やその子分達は自分の支配地域を開発するであろうし、特に 軍部においてはそうであろう。そういうことになれば、本物のクーデターの起こることには遠からずであって、1971年の林彪の 毛沢東への反抗と亡命(ミステリアスな飛行機事故で死亡)事件がその一例である。
The Western commentariat likes to praise Chinese leaders as more intelligent and decisive than those chosen by democratic elections. Sometimes that may be true. But when was the last time rumors of a coup in Washington or London moved markets? The endless chanting of the "protect stability" mantra by Communist Party functionaries is a reminder that the regime is constantly on guard against attempts by its own members to usurp power. 西側の評論家は屡々中国の指導者を民主的に選ばれた西欧のそれに比べてインテリジェントで行動が断固としていると賞賛するが、 時にはそれは真実であるかも知れないけれど、ワシントンでクーデター発生という噂が市場を動かしたことはあったのだろうか? 中国共産党の「安定維持」のエンドレスのマントラというのは共産党政権というのが常にそのメンバーに因る権力奪取の試みに対 する防衛を言っていることを示す。
When you get right down to it, what are China's leadership transitions if not palace coups on a regular schedule? That's not a stable institution. It's an invitation, sooner or later, for tanks in the streets. 共産党政権というのは、その権力継承の時にあって、それがもし定期的にスケジュールされた宮廷クーデターでないとすれば何な のであろうか?それは安定的な機関とは言えなくて、そのシステムは遅かれ早かれ市中に戦車の出動を招くのだろう。
Jon Huntsman, a former Republican presidential hopeful and US ambassador to China who met Mr Bo a number of times, said his demise revealed serious rifts among the top leadership of the country. “The splits in the standing committee [over reform] are as pronounced now as they were during the [1989] Tiananmen Square period,” Mr Huntsman said. “Politics in China is a rough and tumble business. This is an open and public evidence of this and what happens behind the velvet curtain that the world never sees.”
報道は、時間の経過に従って、反対の人は次第に減るか死亡して、64事件の名誉回復への抵抗力が次第に弱まることを信じて、 来年解任される温家宝は恐らく危険を冒して中国が誤った歴史を是正する、政治改革の肝心要な時を展開しますと思っています。 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FTのオリジナリ記事は ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/13c6fcb2-7285-11e1-9be9-00144feab49a.html#axzz1pVZB2R2W Wen lays ground for Tiananmen healing By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing
・・・So it was astonishing to hear Premier Wen Jiabao at his annual press conference last week say the country and the party must confront the legacy of the 1966-76 cultural revolution or face the possibility of repeating that disaster. ・・・But for those reading between the pauses in the premier’s painfully deliberate oratory, the speech signalled more than the downfall of the maverick Mr Bo, who may still be charged with unspecified crimes. According to people close to top-level internal party discussions, Mr Wen was tentatively laying the foundation for a move that would blow apart the established order in China and kick-start the political reform he has agitated for in recent years. That move would be the rehabilitation and re-evaluation of the 1989 Tiananmen Square student protests and the massacre that followed on June 4, when party elders ordered the People’s Liberation Army to open fire on unarmed demonstrators.
To this day the party officially regards the democracy protests as a “counter-revolutionary riot” and the entire episode has been painstakingly scrubbed from the collective consciousness of the nation. In calling for a re-evaluation of the cultural revolution, Mr Wen was in fact signalling his intention to do the same for Tiananmen in order to finally begin the healing.
Mr Wen has already suggested this on three separate occasions in top-level secret party meetings in recent years, according to people familiar with the matter, but each time has been blocked by his colleagues. One of the most vehement opponents of this proposal was Bo Xilai.
As Mr Wen prepares to step down at the end of this year as part of a once-in-a-decade political transition, he may be gambling that the time has come to right historical wrongs as a way of launching political reform. The potential reputational damage to powerful interest groups, particularly within the military, could still easily block such a spectacularly bold manoeuvre. But in purging Mr Bo the Chinese leadership has cleared away a major impediment and sent a signal to others that spring could be in the air again in Beijing.