WSJは温首相のこういう主張に不快感を表明していて、相変わらずの重商主義的な物の言い方だという。中国はむしろ、そ ういう主張と経済危機への支援対処の問題を分離するくらいの分別を持って「責任あるステークホールダー」として振る舞 うべきである、という。 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904194604576580103255024120.html China's European Trade Fumble:Beijing shows how ill-prepared it is for economic leadership.
Chinese Premier Web Jiabao made waves last week for suggesting that financial aid to Europe could be tied to trade concessions, and especially a Brussels move to designate China a "market economy" for trade-law purposes. This has been portrayed as a menacing act of policy leverage or worse. It's more accurate to say this is a sign of how ill-prepared Beijing is to assume the leadership role it seems to covet on the global economic stage. Much of this is bluff. ・・・ Tying this trade issue to talk of a bailout looked to be a heavy-handed attempt to extort trade concessions out of Brussels at a moment of European vulnerability. It underscored for Western leaders and electorates that, for all of its market opening, China still behaves as a mercantilist power that will use its growing financial and economic clout to push others around. ・・・ China frequently talks as if it wants to play a greater role in shaping economic policy debates. But being an effective leader requires more than throwing one's weight around. Beijing could assuage others about its rise and intentions?and advocate more effectively on its own behalf?if it started negotiating on trade matters like a responsible stakeholder instead of trying to bully or buy its economic partners.
It’s come to this: The president touted for his brainpower, idealism, and global esteem has been reduced to leading captive audiences in chants of “Pass this bill,” a measure that Republicans loathe, Democrats regard warily, and Congress is un-likely to approve even in truncated form.
But the fight is not going well, and for good reason. For one thing, Obama suffers from what Maureen Dowd of the New York Times has identified as the “speech illusion.” This is the notion that he can swoop down from on high, deliver a speech, persuade millions, and move the political needle in favor of his legislation. And, naturally, make himself more popular.
Quite the opposite has happened. The speech wasn’t a bomb, but it was close. Individual parts of his proposal?the payroll tax cut, for instance?drew a positive response in polls. Overall, though, it was a downer. Poll numbers for both the president and his plan sank gradually after the speech. The truth is, Obama is simply not persuasive. 現実に起こっていることは、そういうイルージョンの反対で、演説そのものは爆弾でないにせよ威力があって、彼の提案の一部は、 例えば所得税減税の部分は世論調査にポジティブな動きを与える。しかし全体としては出来の良くないもので演説の後で彼の支持率 も提案への支持も緩やかに低下する。真実は、オバマには説得力がないということなのだ。(後略)
First, we must accept that austerity measures, necessary to avoid a fiscal train wreck, have recessionary effects on output. So, if countries in the eurozone’s periphery are forced to undertake fiscal austerity, countries able to provide short-term stimulus should do so and postpone their own austerity efforts.
Second, while monetary policy has limited impact when the problems are excessive debt and insolvency rather than illiquidity, credit easing, rather than just quantitative easing, can be helpful.
Third, to restore credit growth, eurozone banks and banking systems that are under-capitalized should be strengthened with public financing in a European Union-wide program.
Fourth, large-scale liquidity provision for solvent governments is necessary to avoid a spike in spreads and loss of market access that would turn illiquidity into insolvency.
Fifth, debt burdens that cannot be eased by growth, savings, or inflation must be rendered sustainable through orderly debt restructuring, debt reduction, and conversion of debt into equity.
Sixth, even if Greece and other peripheral eurozone countries are given significant debt relief, economic growth will not resume until competitiveness is restored. And, without a rapid return to growth, more defaults ? and social turmoil ? cannot be avoided.
Seventh, the reasons for advanced economies’ high unemployment and anemic growth are structural, including the rise of competitive emerging markets.
Eighth, emerging-market economies have more policy tools left than advanced economies do, and they should ease monetary and fiscal policy.
The risks ahead are not just of a mild double-dip recession, but of a severe contraction that could turn into Great Depression II, especially if the eurozone crisis becomes disorderly and leads to a global financial meltdown.
Inflation will soon be the last problem that central banks will fear, as renewed slack in goods, labor, real estate, and commodity markets feeds disinflationary pressures. インフレの恐怖などデフレギャップに比べれば中央銀行が現在心配することではない。
Spain sees sixfold increase in immigrants over decade(2010/02/08) スペイン、10年間で移民6倍
At the beginning of the 1990s the population was made up almost entirely of Spaniards, with immigrants accounting for less than 1% of residents. But the past decade has seen an influx from around the globe, mostly from other European countries, South America and north Africa. 1990年代初頭、スペインの人口はほぼ全てスペイン人で占められており、移民の割合は1%以下だった。 しかし、過去10年間に、世界中から移民が殺到した(主にヨーロッパ諸国、南アフリカ、北アフリカ)。
Forty per cent of immigrants now living in Spain came from other EU countries, notably Romania, with 759,000 registered, and the UK, with 356,000. 現在スペインで暮らす移民の40%は、他のヨーロッパ諸国出身者。目立つところでは、ルーマニアの759,000人と英国の356,000人
Another 1.6 million came from South America and 902,000 from Africa, more than two-thirds of those from Morocco. The figures are taken from municipal registers of residents around the country and are released each year by the National Statistics Institute in Madrid. 更に160万人は南アフリカ出身であり、902,000人がアフリカ出身だが、その3分の2以上がモロッコ出身 この数値は全国各地の住民登録に基づくものであり、マドリッドの国家統計局が毎年公表している。
For all that, however, any more than notional support for the eurozone would come with significant political risks. China isn’t stupid: it can see that the deadlock over Greece is less about money, and more about political will. To end the crisis every EU country, starting with Germany, must put aside its short-sighted self-interest. But with both Germany’s people and politicians so divided, this isn’t going to happen. こうした諸般の事情を苦慮してみるに、中国にとってユーロゾーンへの実質的な支援というのは大きな政治的リスクをともなう。 中国は馬鹿ではないのでギリシャを取り巻くデッドロック状況が金銭的なものよりは政治的意志による所が大きいと知っている。 ユーロゾーンの諸国の危機を終わらせるにはドイツを始めEU諸国が短期的な自己利益を離れなくてはならない。しかしドイツの 国民も政治家も意見が分裂していて、そういうことは容易に起こらない。
Put simply, investing in Greek, Portuguese, Irish and even Italian government bonds is now a hazardous activity. China is not going to go ahead without some form of iron guarantee from Germany and France which seems equally unlikely. Naturally, Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Nicolas Sarkozy would be delighted if China took unilateral action, but that would put China in an awkward position ? both risking a backlash in European public opinion, and doing nothing to move towards the type of more fiscally united Europe that, ultimately, is required to sustain the single currency. 簡単にいえば、ギリシャ、ポルトガル、アイルランド、イタリアの国債に投資することは危険性の高い行為である。中国はドイツと フランスの確固たる保証なしに前に進むことはないだろう。独仏の確固たる保障というのはありそうにない話である。中国がユニラ テラルに支援すればメルケル首相とサルコジ大統領は歓迎しようが、同時にヨーロッパの世論のバックラッシュの危険もある。単一 通貨を支えるためには、最終的にはフィシカにヨーロッパの統合を進めることが必要で、それをおざなりにするわけにはゆかない。
Then, think of the money. Bailing out Greece is an expensive business: ?110bn has already been spent by the EU and the International Monetary Fund, with around ?120bn more still needed. Ought China really pay this amount to be a wealthy market economy? ギリシャ救済というのは高価なもので既に1100億ユ−ロがEUとIMFによって使われ1200億ユーロがさらに必要だ。中国が豊かな先進国 にそういうお金を出すだろうか?
Some thinkers, including CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, have even suggested that China should be bribed to help out. Ideas include offering a bigger role in the international financial system, or pledging that a Chinese candidate becomes the next head of the IMF. Yet even here, China may not be ready CNNのFareed Zakariaなど一部の論者は中国が支援すべきと主張し、それによって中国が国際金融システムでより大きな役割を果たし、 或いは次期のIMFのトップが中国人になるとかいうのだが、そういう事柄について中国は準備ができてはいないだろう(後略)
<欧州市場スナップ> FTSE100 5,328 +68 +1.30% CAC40 2,989 +49 +1.67% DAX 5,545 +129 +2.38% FTSEMIB 14,315 +228 +1.62% IBEX35IDX 8,338 +115 +1.40% ttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-rise-on-greece-fed-hopes-2011-09-20 LONDON (MarketWatch) ? U.S. stock futures rose on Tuesday, buoyed by expectations that Greece will receive the next aid tranche from international creditors as well as hopes that the Federal Reserve may announce fresh measures to stimulate the economy. アメリカの株式先物は上昇。ギリシャが次回の支援を受けられるとの(楽観的)観測やFRBの会議で経済刺激策が打ち出される のではとの(楽観的)観測から マーケット・ウオッチ
TOKYO?Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said Tuesday that Tokyo is open to buying more bonds issued by a European bailout fund to alleviate concerns over the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. Mr. Noda said in an exclusive interview with Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal that the European Union must first reach a consensus on how to deal with the crisis, but said Japan was ready to do its part to help contain the euro-zone debt turmoil. "To stabilize the European financial markets and the economy, Japan needs to make a certain contribution going forward, including purchases of EFSF bonds," Mr. Noda said, referring to debt issued by the European Financial Stability Facility. Using its $1.2 trillion foreign reserves, Japan has already bought about ?2.7 billion?or a little more than 20%?of the EFSF bonds since January to help Ireland and Portugal.
The Bank of Spain yesterday released July credit data showing nonperforming loans increased to another 16-year high ? dating back to another banking crisis in the 1990s. 昨日スペイン中央銀行の公表した資料に依れば、7月には銀行の不良債権比率が増大し16年来の最高値となった。またバークレィズ・ キャピタルに依れば建設会社と不動産開発業者への融資が、企業セクターの持つローンの全体9640億ユーロの43%を占める
“Credit quality is still deteriorating in these sectors, especially among developers: the nonperforming loan ratio increased to 17.8% in Q2 2011 from 15.3% Q1 2011,” the firm notes. “As economic activity remains weak and unemployment has not yet stabilised, we would expect credit quality to continue to deteriorate in the coming months,” they add. バークレィズは「これらのセクター、特に不動産開発業でクレジット品質が劣化している。不良債権比率はQ1の15.3%からQ2に17.8% なった。経済活動は弱含みで推移し失業率は安定化していないので、クレジット品質の劣化が続くと予想する」という
Separately, a Bank of Spain official says housing prices will keep falling through next year. Jonathan House reports: これとは別に、スペイン銀行は住宅価格が来年一年も低下すると見ている
In a presentation to investors, Jose Maria Roldan, head of regulation for the Bank of Spain, said Spanish housing prices have so far declined 22% from their 2007 peak. He said that Spanish banks have a maximum potentially troubled exposure to real -estate developers equal to 13.5% of total assets. スペイン銀行の監督部門の長であるJose Maria Roldanは、スペインの住宅価格が2007年のピーク以降に22%下落し、スペインの銀行の これによる潜在的イクスポージャーは不動産開発セクターへのもので全資産の13.5%であるとした。
To top it all off, teachers in Madrid began a two-day strike to protest austerity measures today. この他今日からマドリッドでは教師が緊縮財政に抗議して2日間のストライキを始めている
Nouriel Roubini of the Stern School, New York University, has argued in the Financial Times this week that Greece should both default and exit. I have no difficulty in accepting the first proposition. Few can still believe that a huge reduction in the country’s public debt can be avoided. It is a question of when, not if.
Yet would that mean forced exit from the eurozone? The answer is: no. This is a point made by Willem Buiter and Ebrahim Rahbari of Citi in another interesting paper. Exit would indeed happen if nothing were done by the rest of the eurozone, including the European Central Bank, to recapitalise and reliquify Greek banks. The creation of a new currency would then become inevitable. But Greece’s partners could well prevent such an outcome. (Why breaking up is so hard to do By Martin Wolf) ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f2133a2e-e2e0-11e0-903d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1YX0iqO3k
ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b097b918-e38e-11e0-8f47-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1YX0iqO3k Until now, Athens and its eurozone partners have been like bickering passengers on the same sinking boat. Grudging co-operation has been sustained by fear that if Greece runs out of money, it will drag the rest of Europe down with it. But an opportunity has emerged to detach the responsibilities of the Greeks from those of the eurozone as a whole. It should be grasped. ・・・ Redirecting popular indignation where it belongs ? with those who exploit a broken system ? would be politically smart, too. Greece can only be rescued by a leader who owns up to this conflict ? and sides with the outsiders. A failure to pay the state’s dues just might force a showdown. When politicians lack courage, the best help is a prod
President Obama's latest "pivot to jobs" has turned out to be more of a sharp left turn. First he announced a new $447 billion stimulus of new spending and temporary tax cuts. Then on Monday he proposed to offset it with $1.5 trillion over 10 years in permanent tax hikes. Mr. Obama knows that little of what he's proposing will pass the Republican-controlled House, so the conventional wisdom has it that the President is trying to emulate Harry Truman by setting up a "do-nothing Congress" as a re-election foil. オバマ大統領のこのたびの「画期的雇用政策」は、オバマ政権の急峻な左旋回である。大統領は最初に$447Bの経済刺激策を提案し その中には一時的減税政策が含まれていた。月曜日になって大統領は10年間で$1.5Tにのぼる恒久的増税案を提出している。大統領 は、この提案(法案)が共和党支配の下院で否決されることを承知の上で、トルーマンのやったのと同じ選挙戦略に出ている。 それは「(共和党支配の)議会が全く何もしない」ことを訴えて再選に勝利するというものである。
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Barack Obama's road to re-election is lined with lots of boarded-up homes. Though the high unemployment rate dominates talk in Washington, for many 2012 voters the housing crisis may well be a more powerful manifestation of a sick economy. And, in an unfortunate twist for Obama, the problem is at its worst in many of the battleground states that will be decisive in determining whether he gets another term. ワシントンでは失業率とオバマ再選についての話が多いが、より強力なものになるかも知れないのは住宅市場の悪化である。 オバマにとって不幸にも、この問題は激戦区の諸州において顕著である(後略)
First, the Eurosystem has abolished the eligibility requirement (Sections 6.2.1.5 and 6.2.1.6) that debt instruments issued by credit institutions, other than covered bank bonds, are only eligible if they are admitted to trading on a regulated market. At the same time, the Eurosystem risk control measures for marketable assets (Section 6.4.2) have been amended. Specifically, the Eurosystem has reduced the limit for the use of unsecured debt instruments issued by a credit institution or by any other entity with which the credit institution has close links. Such assets may only be used as collateral to the extent that the value assigned does not exceed 5% of the total value of collateral submitted (instead of 10%, as previously stipulated).
FTアルファビレは、潜在的にこのルール・チェンジの影響は大きいという The relaxation of the rules requiring a market for a collateral asset is potentially very significant… We’re thinking here of ABS that might have been retained on bank balance sheets because of a lack of a market for them, for example, but would welcome thoughts.
Federal Reserve to buy $400 billion of longer-term Treasurys by the end of June 2012, will sell an equal amount of shorter-term Treasurys. Fed's Plosser, Kocherlakota, Fisher dissented. Read the Fed statement ≫ FOMCは$400Bの長期国債を2012年6月末までに購入、同額の短期債権を売却
You wouldn’t think a more-generous Fed would lead to falling commodity prices, but you’d be wrong. For today, at least. Nymex crude oil is down about 0.4% to $85.55 a barrel, and told is really taking a hit, down 0.7% to $1795.50. FRBの債券購入は予想よりは大きいものだったが、それにもかかわらずコモディティが下落している NYNEX石油は0,4%、金は0.7%下落 This may have to do with the unexpected strength in the dollar more than anything. The euro, higher against the greenback earlier, is now down a bit, to $1.367. この説明としては、ドルが予想外に強含んでいることがある鴨。ユーロは $1.367
市場関係者の初期のリアクションは ttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-yields-near-record-lows-ahead-of-fomc-2011-09-21 “There are lots of doubts whether this will be positive or work, but it’s about the fragile confidence, so any step in the right direction is taken positively,” Valeri said. “The Fed will, at the margin, be reassuring.” (Anthony Valeri, fixed-income investment strategist at LPL Financial,)
ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/32e0eb18-e26f-11e0-9915-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1YX0iqO3k “The operation was somewhat larger than anticipated due to the additional mortgage market boost but, more surprisingly, the markets appear to have reacted negatively to the Fed’s negative outlook on the economy,” analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman said.
The two countries potentially share a common friend?the U.S. New Delhi has steadily built relations with Washington in the past decade, while Vietnam has been courting America as the South China Sea becomes a flashpoint. As these three countries ponder how to manage China's rise, they will be drawn closer together. インドもベトナムも親米傾斜を強めており、南支那海が中国とのフラッシュポイントになる中でインド・ベトナム・アメリカの 三国の接近が中国のこの地域への台頭に対抗する(ry
Dealers from large French banks, including BNP Paribas and Societe Generale, as well as UBS, were told this week that they could no longer execute foreign exchange swaps or forwards with Bank of China, the sources said. 今週、BNPパリバ、ソシエテ・ジェネラル、UBSなどの銀行の外為ディーラーは、中国銀行から外為スワップやフォワードの 取引停止を告げられているという
The sources said that only Bank of China had halted such dealings this time, but one added that it was the leader in the Chinese foreign exchange market and that other lenders, which are all controlled by the government, were likely to follow its example. ソースに依れば中国国内でフランスやスイスの銀行にそうした措置を行なっているのは中国銀行のみであるが、中国の外為取引 のリーダーである中国銀行の動きに、いずれ他行も追従すると見られる
French banks have also been struggling to access lending in the interbank market in China, potentially raising their cost of funding, according to the sources. An inability to execute swaps and forwards could make it harder for them to hedge currency risks. これに加えてフランスの銀行は中国国内でのインターバンク取引のアクセスに苦しんでいる
So far, foreign banks operating in the Chinese market have kept their lending and currency dealing windows open to other foreign players, limiting any damage. しかしながら中国で営業する外国銀行がフランス銀行などに融資と外為取引の枠をオープンにしているのでダメージは限定されている
Tim Kelly, James Topham, Isabelle Reynolds and Mayumi Negishi 記者による2011-9-21記事 「U.S. Concerned At Hacking Of Japan Arms Firms」。 8月に三菱が狙われたハッキング事件、なんとイスラエル製ウィルスの「ステュクスネット」に 感染させられるところであったことが判明した。※こいつは原発を故障させるソフトだが、もちろん 普通の火力発電所や兵器工場も故障させる力がある。とんでもない時代になったもんだ。
英HSBCホールディングスとマークイット・エコノミクスが22日発表した9月のHSBC中国製造業購買担当者指数(PMI) の速報値は49.4だった。8月の確定値は49.9、7月は49.3。製造業活動の縮小を意味する同指数の50割れは3カ月連続となる。 中国の上海総合株価指数や香港ハンセン指数が下落するなど、この日のアジア株相場が全面安の展開となっていることも、市場参 加者の心理面にマイナス作用している。 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WSJもこのニュース(中国のPMI)は詳しく伝えていて ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903703604576585783787663222.html?mod=WSJASIA_hps_sections_china ASIA BUSINESSSEPTEMBER 22, 2011, 12:35 A.M. ET HSBC Preliminary China PMI Falls in September By AARON BACK
The preliminary HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 49.4 in September from a final reading of 49.9 in August, HSBC Holdings PLC said on Thursday. Mr. Qu said he expects China's gross domestic product growth to be at around 8.5% to 9% in the coming quarters. That would be down from 9.5% growth in the second quarter.
Greek default is the high-profile threat to eurozone banks that hogs the headlines, and drives down the share prices of the region’s banks. But, aside from the Greek banking system itself, Greece is not a major threat to European banking solvency. Substantial ownership of Greek debt by French and German banks is a manageable portion of their books, and they are supported by countries with strong finances. ギリシャのデフォルトの脅威がユーロ圏の銀行の株価を低落させているわけだが、ギリシャの銀行への影響を除けば、ギリシャはユーロ 圏の銀行の支払い可能性にとって脅威ではない。ギリシャへのイクスポージャーを持つ独仏の大手銀行はそれらの国家が保証して支える 事ができる。
The chances are high of a Spanish asset price slide and banking crisis, with stagnation (at best) or depression, if it sticks in the euro. For Portugal they are close to 100 per cent. スペインの資産価格が崩壊して銀行危機を導く可能性が高い。それは最良の場合でもスタグネーションを伴い、あるいは恐慌を伴う。 彼らがユーロに留まるのであればポルトガルの場合はほぼ100%そうなる。
For a long time Japanese bonds ? JGBs ? have been the only large established bond market with sub 2% 10-year yields. But now the U.S. is firmly in sub 2% territory too. And given the fact that Japan has been wrestling with a low-grade deflation/recession problem for about a decade, its hard find much reassurance on the economy based on the company the U.S. is keeping. 日本国債は、これまで主要国の国債の中で唯一、長きにわたって10年もののイールドが2%を下回るのだが、今やアメリカの 財務省債券10年もののイールドが2%を下回っている。日本は10年来のデフレと不況に悩まされてきたが、現状を見るとアメ リカ経済が、それと全く異なるという保障が見つけにくいorz ------------------------------------------------------------- *現時点の財務省10年債券のイールドは1.77% *チャート:昨日までの財務省10年債券のイールドの推移 ttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST10Y
The facts are striking and worrisome. Private institutions around the world, and even some public ones, have sharply reduced short-term lending to French banks. Credit markets now put their risk of default at levels indicative of a doulbe B rating, which is fundamentally inconsistent with sound banking operations. Bank equity now trades at a 50 per cent discount to tangible book value on average. To make things worse, the ratio of market capital to total assets has fallen to 1?1.5 per cent (compared with 6-8 per cent for healthier banks). 世界の民間企業が、中には公的機関までも、最近フランスの銀行への短期融資を急速に減らしている。クレジット市場は現在、 ダブルB相当の評価を与えているのだが、これは安定した銀行オペレーションと言えない。銀行の株式価格は今ではブックバリューの 50%のディスカウントになっている。
These are all signs of an institutional run on French banks. If it persists, the banks would have no choice but to delever their balance sheets in a very drastic and disorderly fashion. フランスの銀行に対する機関投資家の資金引き上げの徴候が見られ、そういうことがもし起こるなら、銀行はドラスチックなバランス シートのデレバレッジを余儀なくされる
To counter this, fiscal authorities and banks must work with the ECB on three immediate, simultaneous and drastic measures. この危険を回避するために財務当局と銀行はECBと共に、即時に、同時的に、ドラスティックに対策を講じる必要がある。
They must inject capital through public-private partnerships, including through Tarp (US troubled asset relief programme) -like mechanisms, present a realistic assessment of the asset side of the balance sheet and enhance depositor protection. Greater burden sharing with the private sector may also prove necessary. 民間と公的資金の注入による資本増強、アメリカのTARPの流儀のメカ二ズムの導入、アセットサイドのアセスメント、預金者保護、 更に広範な民間セクターによる支援が有効であろう(後略)
Chinese property stocks suffered double-digit declines amid growing fears developers are losing access to funding and will be forced to slash prices. The trigger for Thursday’s tumble was a Reuters report that the Chinese banking regulator had ordered trust companies to assess their risks from lending to Greentown, the largest builder in the eastern province of Zhejiang. 中国の不動産開発企業の株価は木曜日に、融資が困難になっていて、投売りを出さざるをえないかも知れないとの危惧から2桁の 下落を見た。ロイターは、中国の銀行監督当局が、浙江省の最大の不動産開発企業であるグリーンンタウンへの融資のリスクにつ いて信託会社団に其のアセスを命じたと報じて、下落のトリガーとなった。
Greentown’s Hong Kong-listed shares tumbled 16.2 per cent, though the group said it was unaware of any investigation by the China Banking Regulatory Commission. Other Hong Kong-listed developers that use trust financing include Agile Property, Evergrande, KWG and Shimao, according to Credit Suisse. All four groups fell more than 10 per cent, while the wider market dropped 4.9 per cent. 香港の株式市場に上場しているグリーンタウンの株価は16.2%下落、ただし同企業は銀行監督局の命令を知らないとコメントしている。 香港市場の同業の不動産開発企業(Agile Property, Evergrande, KWG and Shimao)株価も10%以上下落した。香港市場全体では4.9% の下落となった。
“The funding crisis will force the developers to cut prices even more,” said Gillem Tulloch, head of Hong Kong-based research house Forensic Asia. “The bubble is in the process of deflating.” (後略)
You might have noticed the stock market has been a bit perturbed lately. If not, then we invite you to direct your attention to the VIX, the “fear index,” which is soaring today.In fact, the VIX has hung above 30 for going on two months now, its biggest sustained rally since the first half of 2009. 貴方も、最近の株式市場はちょっと不安定杉と感じているかも知れないけど、そう思わないのであれば別名恐怖指数と言われている VIXを見て見ることをお勧めする。VIXは今日も高騰していて、VIXが30以上の高みに位置すること、2ヶ月になるのだけれど、これは 2009年の上旬以来の(異常な)ことである。、
At last check the VIX was up 11% to $41.50, its highest intraday level since ? well, a week ago. 先ほどチェックしたときにVIXは今日11%上昇の41.50で1週間来のイントラディの高い値である。
Seeing VIX in the 30s and 40s has become commonplace of late, but it shouldn’t be. The 30 mark is generally considered the line at which markets are unusually anxious. We’ve been above that mark now consistently since August 5. VIXが30〜40という高い値にあることが最近は通常化しているけれど、これは通常のことではない。VIXが30をつけるというのは一般的 に言って、市場が常になく不安になっている事を意味する。それが8月5日以降、ずっと続いている。
The VIX still hasn’t reached its intraday peak of 48 on August 8, but this is the longest the VIX has held above 30 since the stretch between September 2008 and mid-May 2009. VIXは8月8日に48というイントラディの高値をつけて、それ以降これを上回っていないけれど、それにしてもVIXが30〜40の高みにある という事態は、2008年9月(リーマンショック発生時)から2009年5月半ば(株価回復が本格化した時)の期間以来の長いものである。
European officials look set to speed up plans to recapitalise the 16 banks that came close to failing last summer’s pan-EU stress tests as part of a co-ordinated effort to reassure the markets about the strength of the 27-nation bloc’s banking sector. A senior French official said the 16 banks regarded to be close to the threshold would now have to seek new funds immediately. Although there has been widespread speculation that French banks are seeking more capital, none is on the list. Other European officials said discussions were still under way. フランス政府高官に依れば、EUはさきのEUの銀行に対するストレステストで(健全性の)スレシホールドに近かった16の銀行に対して EU全体の協調行動として資本増加を急がせる計画である
The move would affect mostly mid-tier banks. Seven are Spanish, two are from Germany, Greece and Portugal, and one each from Italy, Cyprus and Slovenia. The list includes Germany’s HSH Nordbank and Banco Popolare of Italy. この対象は中位銀行が多く、スペインで7銀行、ドイツで、ギリシャ、ポルトガル、で2銀行ずつ、イタリア、キプロス、スロベニア で1銀行ずつである。ドイツのHSH NordbankやイタリアのBanco Popolareが含まれる。
The 16 institutions that are now the focus of attention ended up with core tier one capital ratios ? the key measure of financial strength ? of 5 and 6 per cent. The pass mark was 5 per cent. The EBA had given those banks until April 2012 to implement plans to shore up their capital buffers. While the banks are expected to turn to private markets first, officials said that state aid may be required. The French government appears to favour using the new ?440 billion rescue fund, known as the European financial stability fund, but other member states are likely to argue for national action. これら16銀行の、タイア1資本比率を5〜6%にすること、5%を上回ることが求められる。銀行は民間資金を調達する事が期待されるが 国の支援(=公的資金注入)が必要になる場合があるかもしれないという。フランス政府はESFS資金を使うことを好んでいるがイタ リアなどの国は国の資金を使うことを望んでいる。残りの14銀行というのは:
The other 14 banks on the list are: Espirito Santo and Banco Portugues of Portugal; Piraeus Bank and Hellenic Postbank of Greece; Banco Popular Espanol, Bankinter, Caixa Galicia, BFA-Bankia, Banco Civica, Caixa Ontinyent, Banco De Sabadell of Spain; Nova Ljubljanska Banka of Slovenia; Cyprus’s Marfin Popular Bank and Norddeutsche Landesbank of Germany.
In all cases, I think the odds still favor outcomes well short of catastrophic and worst case scenarios ? but the global economy is now in the catastrophe zone where speculation about such scenarios is no longer science fiction but becomes part of prudent planning. 現在の事態がグローバルなカタストロフィーにつながるという最悪のシナリオが、もはやサイエンス・フィクションではなく 将来を見据えた周到な対応計画の一部になってきている
It appears that while investors panic quickly and head for the exits at the first sign of trouble, many politicians, journalists and social thinkers go to sleep when the fire alarms begin to ring. 投資家が急速にパニックに近づき、トラブルの最初のサインで出口に向かおうとしている一方で、多くの政治家やジャーナリスト そして社会的な論客は、火災警報が鳴ろうとしている中で眠りにつこうとしている(ry ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ *ラッセルミードの言うように、政治家やジャーナリストの、こういう問題についての鈍感さと言うか馬鹿さと言うか無能と言うか そういうものは世界共通であるようで、国内メディアなどは特に、欧州債務危機なぞは異次元の世界のように(ry
Enabling lower long-term interest rates can be part of that, but only a small part. At least as important is to communicate that the Fed will not shrink from doing more (what some call “operation shout”). Markets are far from being seduced, so the Fed must try harder. Doing the twist without a partner just looks sad. 長期金利を操作するというFRBのオペレーションは危機回避の政策の一部ではあるが、小さな一部分にすぎない。少なくとも 重要であることは、FRBがより大きな役割を果たすことをためらわない(つまり、オペレーション・シャウトに進む用意が ある)と市場にコミュニケートすることである。市場はFRBに誘導されたと言うに程遠いからFRBは更に努力が必要だ。其の オペレーションを諸国の中央銀行の協調行動で行えていないことは残念である。
Steep declines in Asian currencies this week have delivered a stark reminder to investors that the region remains as vulnerable as ever to financial shocks from the west. As investors scrambled for US dollars, seeking the safety of traditional havens, the South Korean won dropped 4.7 per cent over the week in spite of a rally on Friday and moves by authorities to slow the pace of its decline. 今週になって、アジア諸国の通貨が(対ドルで)急速に切り下げていることは、この地域が金融ショックに対して西欧諸国と同じ くらいに影響を受け易いことを投資家に思い出させる。投資家が安全性確保のために米国ドルの回帰しているために、韓国ウオン は4.7%下落している。これは政府当局の介入によるウオン安阻止の行動にもかかわらず起こっていることである。
An index of 10 Asian currencies compiled by JPMorgan and Bloomberg has fallen 2.1 per cent against the dollar this week and is lower than the level at which it started the year. The Australian dollar, a proxy for global commodities demand, dropped 5.6 per cent and is back below parity with the greenback. India’s rupee tumbled 4.7 per cent to a 28-month low and Malaysia’s ringgit declined 3 per cent. Fears that the US is slipping back into recession and that the eurozone debt crisis is spinning out of control have triggered turmoil in global financial markets this week. JPモーガンとブルームバーグの纏めるアジア10通貨インデックスは今週対ドルで2.1%下落し、今年の最低値付近にある。コモディティ 需要と同期性の高いオーストラリア・ドルは5.6%下落し、印度のルピーは4.7%下落して28ヶ月来の安値、マレーシアのリンギは3%低下 している。アメリカ経済がリセッションに陥るのではとの懸念に加えて、欧州の負債危機がコントロール不可能になり、グローバル な金融危機を招くのではとの憶測がある。
“The reality is that it does not matter how confident we or anyone else may be on the medium-term outlook for China and the rest of Asia,” said analysts at Gavekal, a research house. “If there is a recession in the US in the next 12 months or a major default event in Europe, Asian markets will continue to fall, in tandem with the US and Europe, despite the higher growth prospects.” 研究機関Gavekalのアナリストは「アジア諸国についてのリアリティというのは、中国とかその他のアジア諸国の経済について中期見通 しが良好であるとしても、今後12ヶ月でアメリカがリセッションに陥るなら、或いは欧州諸国でデフォルトがあれば、アジア市場は欧州 やアメリカと同じように継続的に低下するだろう。それはアジア諸国の経済見通しが良好であっても変わらない」という。
While the Chinese currency traded onshore was broadly flat against the dollar, renminbi traded offshore, known as CNH, dropped more than 2 per cent as foreign investors liquidated positions. Traders reckon Asian currencies will remain under pressure as long as global markets remain locked in “risk-off” mode and until US dollar funding concerns start to ease. 今週、中国国内の人民元相場はフラットであるがオフショアで取引される人民元、CNHは対ドルで2%以上下落している。それは外国人 がポジションを手じまっているためで、グローバル市場がリスクオフ・モードであるかぎり、またドルの資金供給が改善されないかぎ りアジア諸国の通貨が下向き圧力を受けるトレンドに変わりがない。
“The fear now is that market participants continue to reduce risk across the board.” said Paul Mackel, head of Asian currency research at HSBC. “We have already seen relatively large outflows from Asian equity markets this year. If this liquidation spreads further to foreign bond positions, then the Indonesian rupiah, Malaysian ringgit and Korean won would be at greater risk.” HSBCアジアの通貨調査部門の長であるPaul Mackelは「現状では市場参加者が継続的にリスクを減らす方向に動いている」という。 「アジア諸国の株式市場から、比較的大きな資金流失が今年起こっているが、この傾向が国債市場にも現れるのであれば、インドネシア ルピーや韓国ウオン、マレーシア・リンギに更に大きな(下落の)リスクがある」という。
ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/32e0eb18-e26f-11e0-9915-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1YX0iqO3k The FTSE Asia Pacific ? excluding Japan ? index has dropped 1.9 per cent, moving towards its biggest weekly fall in almost three years. Global investors looking to sell shares to raise cash turned to South Korea and Hong Kong with Japan’s markets closed for a public holiday. FTSEアジア・パシフィック指数(日本を含まない)は1.9%下落して3年来の最大の週間下落幅になった。日本は休日だが香港や韓国で 外人投資家が株を売り、キャッシュに変えている。
South Korea’s Kospi Composite tumbled 5.7 per cent to six-week lows on heavy foreign selling. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 1.9 per cent, extending its 8 per cent decline already this week, while China’s Shanghai Composite index fell 1.1 per cent. 韓国のKOSPI指数は禿しい外人売で5.7%下落、6週間来の安値となり、香港のハンセン指数は1.9%下落して今週の下げ幅の8%を拡大、 中国の上海総合指数は1.1%下落。
Copper, the sector bellwether which was down 7.3 per cent on Thursday, was off another 8 per cent early on Friday, hitting a 13-month low as selling accelerated into the Asian close. But in keeping with the more upbeat tone to the European open it has since pared those losses and is down 5.6 per cent at $3.29 a pound. 銅相場は木曜日に7.3%下落、金曜日にはさらに8%下落、13ヶ月来の安値となった。ただし欧州市場では回復して5.6%の低下
コモディティの現状(WSJ) ttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/23/commodities-being-pounded-again-more/?mod=WSJBlog Nymex crude is down 2.6% to $78.45 a barrel, well below its intraday low on August 9 and its lowest level since last September. Gold is down 3% to $1688.40 an ounce, its lowest level since early August. Silver is just getting shredded again, down another 11% to $32.47 an ounce, its lowest since February. Silver has dropped 20% since in two days. That’s a full-on bear market in just two days. Copper is down another 4.8% to $3.32 a pound, its lowest level in more than a year. It has lost 11% in two days.
We expect Apple to focus on iOS 5 and its cloud service capabilities. We also expect the announcement of an iPhone 5 (which could be called the “4S” as Apple appears to have vacillated on the name). We believe the iPhone 5 will have an A5 processor (the same as the iPad 2) a better camera, a slightly larger screen, and be slightly slimmer. We also expect the announcement of a lower-priced iPhone that will basically be a lower-cost 3GS.
We expect carriers (including Sprint, ~50M subscribers, ) to launch the phones starting in mid-Oct. We had believed that T-Mobile (~34M subs) would also carry the iPhone 5 in CQ4 but now believe this could be delayed, possibly due to the pending AT&T acquisition. Finally, we also expect an iPhone launch at China Telecom (~108M subs) in CQ1. ttp://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/23/apples-oct-4-unveiling-a-possible-preview/?mod=WSJBlog
Stocks are fighting back a little after a week of brutal selling, but credit-market indicators continue to flash warning signals. They’re certainly calmer than yesterday, but have essentially frozen at high stress levels. 酷い一週間の終わりに株式市場には幾分か、戻しに向かいそうな動きもあるが、債券市場は警戒信号継続中で、昨日よりは良い とはいえ、高いストレスレベルで凍り付いている
In the worst corner of the market, Greece’s two-year debt spread against German bunds is 360 basis points wider today, with Greek debt yielding more than 75%. The debt is trading at less than 40 cents on the dollar ? pricing in a default. ギリシャ2年債券のドイツ国債のスプレッドは、今日+360bp、債券イールドは75%、取引価格は額面の40%以下のデフォルト価格
Bond-yield spreads are also wider in Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. イタリア、スペイン、ポルトガル、アイルランドの債券イールドのスプレッドも拡大方向
The TED spread, a measure of bank funding stress, has cooled a little bit today, but is still at 35 basis points, its highest level since July 2010. TEDスプレッドはやや収まっているが、依然35bpのレベルで、2010年6月以降の最高のレベル
The CDS market has calmed down, too, with the cost of insuring against sovereign defaults for Spain and Italy flat, according to Markit data. At 532 basis points for Italy, however, this is nothing to write home about. CDS市場は冷静さを取り戻し、スペイン、イタリアがフラットだが正常なレベルではない(イタリアが532bp)
In the US, however, Bank of America’s CDS spread is hanging around the record high 400 basis point level it hit yesterday. バンク・オブ・アメリカのCDSスプレッドは400bpと昨日つけた高値にある
And the VIX is still rising, up to nearly 42 at last check. Though it’s not a credit market indicator, it can reflect credit-market anxiety as well as stock-market fear. VIXは依然上昇基調で42あたり。VIXは株式市場のボラタリティ指標だが、債券市場の不安と一脈通じるものが
[F]oreign bank lending originated by European headquartered banks (including their local subsidiaries) is unsurprisingly significant in Emerging Europe and Africa and the Middle East (90%) ? basically Europe’s Emerging periphery, so these regions would likely be most impacted if availability of credit were to shrink significantly.
However, European bank lending is also quite significant in both Emerging Asia and LATAM, with these regions sourcing 60% and 68%, respectively, of their foreign bank credit from European banks.(ry
The markets are not anticipating the possibility that the Greek Parliament vote Tuesday will fail. 市場は(現在)ギリシャ議会が(IMFとEUの要求を入れた緊縮法案を)火曜日に審議して、可決の失敗する可能性を心配していない
A failed vote would mean the bailout negotiated on July 21 ? the one for the original 109 billion euros ? would also not happen. 法案の可決失敗は7月21日のギリシャ救済の交渉で決められた1090億ユーロの(救済資金の)入手を不可能にする
The president and CEO of think tank SGH Macro Advisors, Sassan Ghahramani, puts the odds of passage, “at this point: less than 50-50.” SGHマクロアドバイザーの社長、Sassan Ghahramaniに依れば法案可決の可能性は「現時点で50−50より少ない」
If the call is correct, the currency and equity markets will be in for an unanticipated wild ride. これが正しいのであれば、株式市場や外為市場で(法案否決の場合に)ワイルドな動きになることが在り得(ry
Silver, which was already having an awful day, started taking it even harder in the past half an hour, on very heavy volume. It’s now down nearly 17% to $30.495 an ounce. Gold is off 5.3%, or $93, to $1649.20 an ounce. Grim. Silver has now lost 24% in the past 48 hours. 銀が大きな商いで売られていて、今日だけで17%下落、過去48時間で24%下落、金も今日は5.3%下落
Just as investors are coming out of their bunkers, S&P chartist Mark Arbeter says that the stock market is “breaking down” in “what could be a very nasty prelude to the fourth quarter.”He adds that “we do not think it will be long before the August lows get taken out.” The technician predicts that the S&P 500 will break through support at 1,110-1,120 to “eventually” meet its next support level around 1,020, or another 11% below Friday’s levels. “It appears that the next wave down has begun in earnest, and we recommend extreme caution at this point,” he says. S&Pnoチャーチスト、Mark Arbeter が警告している。「株式市場はブレークダウンしていて、Q4のひどいプレリュードになる鴨。 8月の安値が長続きするとは思わない」といい、S&P500株価指数で1,110-1,120のサポートが破られ、次のサポートレベルの1020に 至るかもしれない。これは金曜日の株価の11%下落を意味する。「下降の波が本格的に始まっており、投資家は十分な注意が必要だ」
光より速い?ニュートリノ http://operaweb.lngs.infn.it/ OPERA has been designed and is being conducted by a team of researchers from Belgium, Croatia, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Russia, Switzerland and Turkey. The experiment constitutes a complex scientific enterprise that has been realised thanks to the skill of a large number of scientists, engineers, technicians and students, and with the strong commitment of the various actors of the project. In particular we mention the LNGS/INFN and CERN laboratories, and the major financial support of Italy and Japan with substantial contributions from Belgium, France, Germany and Switzerland. The OPERA Collaboration presently includes about 160 researchers from 30 institutions and 11 countries:
【ベトナム】 日本は、南シナ海におけるインドの石油・ガス開発をサポート(2011/09/23-07:44) Nhật Bản ủng hộ Ấn Độ khai thác dầu khí ở biển Đông ttp://tuoitre.vn/The-gioi/457125/Nhat-Ban-ung-ho-An-Do-khai-thac-dau-khi-o-bien-Dong.html インドタイムズによると、先日9/21安倍晋三元首相はアジアにおける重要な航路のため、2国の海軍の協力増強を呼びかけた。 先週、中国が排他的経済水域でベトナムの石油探査妨害についてインドに対し抗議した後の声明となる (適当に略) 安倍元首相は、インド海軍と中国海軍はアジアの商業的海上ルートの安定性の安全性を確保するために、米国と協力すべきであると述べ(ry またディスカッションでは、学者が南シナ海での紛争話し合い時には日本にオブザーバー参加してもらないか・という意見などが出た。 この記事内では、最後の方に補足として中国が先日、台湾がアメリカからの武器購入でナーバスになっている点などを記載。
飴の政治評論家で、特に大統領選などの選挙予想・分析で名を知られているチャーリー・クックの評論。2012年の大統領選挙で共和党 がホワイトハウスと上下院を占めるシナリオが実現した場合には、オバマ医療改革の、少なくとの中核部分を撤回(廃棄)するであろ う、という。かなり大胆な推測で、クックが来年の選挙で民主党の敗戦を予想しているため、こういう評論が出てくると思う。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.nationaljournal.com//columns/cook-report/the-cook-report-gop-wins-could-kill-the-health-care-law-20110922 CHARLIE COOK'S THE COOK REPORT The Cook Report: If the GOP Wins Could the health care reform law survive a Republican sweep in 2012? Don’t count on it. Updated: September 23, 2011 | 10:08 a.m. September 22, 2011 | 4:15 p.m. クックレポート:もし共和党勝利なら、オバマ医療改革は撤廃されることになろう By CHARLIE COOK
It’s hard to find many upbeat and optimistic Democrats these days; many seem distinctly worried if not apoplectic about the 2012 elections. Thinking about those lofty days when Barack Obama was elected and sworn in as president of the United States, let’s just say this wasn’t the cruise that Democrats and particularly Obama supporters signed up for. このごろは楽観的で見通し上向きの民主党員というのを見つけるのは困難だ。彼らの多くは2012年選挙のことを心配しているか、あるい はアタマに来ているかのどちらかである。オバマ大統領の就任時の気持ちの高ぶった日々を思い出すなら、今の状況は民主党員特にオバ マ支持者の予期したものではなかった At the risk of sending more Democrats reaching for their Prozac, consider this not implausible scenario: Republicans lose 10 to 15 House seats but maintain their majority, albeit a more narrow one. In my mind, this is the single most likely outcome in the House. Across the way in the Senate, the GOP picks up a net gain of four or five seats, creating either a 51-49 or 52-48 Republican majority in that chamber. Now let’s say Obama loses reelection, whether it’s to Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, or any other GOP contender. こういう予測をすると民主党員が抗鬱剤のプロザックに手を伸ばすことになるかも知れないけれど、以下のような信じがたいとは言えな いシナリオを考えてみよう。2012年選挙では下院で共和党が10−15議席を失うものの過半数支配を維持する。私にはこれが、下院につい て、もっとも有りそうなことと思える。上院では共和党が4−5議席を追加獲得し、51−49或いは52−48の共和党過半数支配の状態になる。 更に、オバマ大統領が再選に失敗し、ペリー氏或いはロムニー氏あるいは共和党の誰かがが次期大統領となる。(後略)
Barack Obama’s strategic shift to the left is bringing back memories of the president as a tough and seemingly unbeatable campaigner, but the biggest question in Washington now is whether the White House’s new aggressive tone marks the beginning of a turnround or is a sign of desperation. バラク・オバマが(選挙)戦略的に左傾化しているが、これは(2008年のキャンペーンの)タフで負けを知らぬ姿を思い出させるもの だが、それにしても、ここワシントンで最大の疑問であることは、ホワイトハウスの新たな(共和党に対する)攻撃的スタンスがオバ マと民主党の劣勢からの回復の転換点になるのか、それとも絶望(ヤケクソ)のサインであるのか、ということである。
(大幅に中略)
But others see Mr Obama’s pivot to the left as the ultimate defensive strategy for a politician who has no other options at his disposal and must ensure that, at the very least, Democratic supporters will rally to his defence. The president’s new tone, they argue, has in effect killed any hope that a jobs bill or sweeping deficit reduction package will be passed. (大統領の攻撃的トーンを評価する向きのある一方で)オバマの左傾化を防衛的な動きで、他に有効なオプションを見つけられない為 と見る批判的な評価もある。オバマ大統領は、最低限度でも、民主党の支持者を彼の防衛に味方させる必要がある。こうした見方に依 れば大統領の新たな(攻撃的な)トーンンは彼の提案している雇用促進法案や赤字削減パッケージについて共和党の協力を得て下院で 可決される可能性を殺すことになる(後略)
Obama went well beyond the usual campaign promises and political rhetoric. Complete with a Greek column stage set, he cast himself as a world-historical figure who would transform America. He was the person who would provide care for the sick and good jobs to the jobless, heal the planet, repair the world, and halt the rise of the oceans. Divisions within our country would end. Wars would cease. America’s image in the world would be restored. Dictators from Havana to Tehran, from Caracas to Pyongyang, would bow to the power of his reason. This time would be different than all the other times. Our country, after all, had never before been graced by anyone quite like Barack Obama. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *アメリカであれ日本であれ、リベラル・メディアが、矢鱈に持ち上げ捲る政治家というのは、歴史の経験に依れんば、大いに警戒 すべきであって、我が国の場合には近衛文麿、細川護煕、最近は朝日系列が前原氏を不自然にヨイショしているのが目に付く
An alternative point of view is that, while the crisis may have had some peculiarly local triggers (the Greek government's admission that it fudged some official statistics certainly didn't help), much of the current mess is the result of forces and decisions outside the control of peripheral Europe's governments. In other words, the crisis could have non-local, systemic causes.
A majority of Americans rates President Obama “about the same” or “worse” than his predecessor, George W. Bush, according to a new Gallup poll. When a random sample of 1004 adults were asked to compare the 43rd and 44th presidents, 34 percent of respondents said Obama had been a worse president than Bush, while 22 percent said he was about the same. ギャラップの世論調査でブッシュ大統領とオバマ大統領の比較を尋ねたところ、34%の有権者はオバマはブッシュより悪いと答え、 22%の有権者はブッシュと同じくらい、と答えた。
Forty-three percent, a plurality, said they preferred Obama’s handling of the presidency. The poll, conducted Sept. 15-18, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It did not specify criteria for making the comparison between presidents. Predictably, Democrats were most supportive of Obama, while Republicans favored Bush in the poll. The response from independent voters might be most telling for Obama: a troublesome 67 percent said they considered him about the same or worse than Bush. 共和党支持者にブッシュを高評価する向きが多く民主党支持者にはオバマを高評価する向きが多い。無党派・支持政党なしの層では オバマは67%がブッシュと同じか、それより悪いと答えていて示唆的である。
The findings underscore the challenges Obama faces in his bid for a second term, with many voters dissatisfied with the direction of the country and their own economic situations. Earlier this week, a separate Gallup poll found for the first time that a slight majority of Americans ? 53 percent ? now blame Obama for the nation’s economic mess. Previously, most Americans spared Obama from blame, seeing Bush as bearing most responsibility for the fiscal crisis and recession. ギャラップのこの世論調査は再戦に挑むオバマ大統領にとって幸先の良からぬもので、多くの有権者が経済状況など、国政の現状に 不満を抱えていることを示す。これとは別の今週のギャラップ世論調査ではアメリカ経済の現状に対して53%の有権者がオバマの責任 と答えている。以前にはアメリカの経済危機についてブッシュの責任とする有権者が多かった。
Even as the terms of the political debate in Washington, in the eyes of many Democrats, have moved steadily to the right, the electorate is increasingly likely to see itself as ideologically closer to the Republican Party than to Democrats. Unless Obama and Democrats can find a solution to this riddle?and find one fast?they will be contesting the 2012 election on forbidding terrain. ワシントンの政治的ディベートについて、民主党員の目から見てさえ、継続的な右傾化の傾向が見てとれる。有権者はますます 自分自身の立場を民主党よりは共和党に近いと見るようになっている。オバマ大統領と民主党がこの傾向に歯止めを掛けること ができないなら2012年の大統領選挙は彼らにとって大変マズーなことになろう
In mid-2005, as disaffection with the Bush administration and the Republican Party was gathering momentum, the Pew Research Center asked American to place themselves and the political parties on a standard left-right ideological continuum. At that time, average voters saw themselves as just right of center and equidistant from the two political parties. Independents considered themselves twice as far away from the Republican Party as from the Democrats, presaging their sharp shift toward the Democrats in the 2006 mid-term election. 2005年ころにはブッシュ大統領と共和党への不満がモメンタムとなっていた。この時期にPEW研究所の行った世論調査では平均的アメ リカ人は政治的な保守・革新のスケールの中心のやや右側に位置を置いている。無党派層についてみると、民主党からの距離の倍の 距離を共和党について置いている。これは2006年の中間選挙が民主党へのシャープなシフトとなることの前兆といえる。
In August of this year, Pew posed a very similar question (note to survey wonks: Pew used a five-point scale, versus six in 2005), but the results were very different. Although average voters continue to see themselves as just right of center, they now place themselves twice as far away from the Democratic Party as from the Republicans. In addition, Independents now see themselves as significantly closer to the Republican Party, reversing their perceptions of six years ago. 今年の8月にPEW研究所は2005年と同じ世論調査を行った結果は大いに異なっていた。平均的アメリカ人は以前と同じく自分の位置を 左右の中心のすぐ右側に置いているが、いまや彼らは民主党から、共和党からの距離の2倍の距離を置いている。無党派層は今では 大いに共和党に近づいている。6年前の彼らの状況とは全く反対である。
There’s another difference as well. In 2005, Republicans’ and Democrats’ views of their own parties dovetailed with the perceptions of the electorate as a whole. Today, while voters as a whole agree with Republicans’ evaluation of their party as conservative, they disagree with Democrats, who on average see their party as moderate rather than liberal. So when Independents, who see themselves as modestly right of center, say that Democrats are too liberal, average Democrats can’t imagine what they’re talking about. 2005年と現在との違いは他にもあって、2005年には共和党も民主党も、自己の政党についての見方は、全体として有権者のそれと一致 していた。今では有権者は共和党について保守の政党であるとの評価で一致しているのだが、民主党については民主党自身の見方である リベラルと言うよりは穏健派であるとする見方に同意していない。(有権者は穏健派ではなくリベラルと見る)
Compounding the problem, the American people are gradually polarizing. According to Gallup, twenty years ago, as Bill Clinton began his presidential campaign, self-described moderates formed the plurality of the electorate?43 percent; conservatives were 36 percent, liberals 17 percent. By the summer of 2011, the conservative share had risen to 41 percent and liberals to 21 percent, while moderates declined to 36 percent, surrendering their plurality status to conservatives. Because nearly all conservatives now vote for Republicans and liberals for Democrats, the share of the shrinking pool of moderates that Democrats need to build a majority is now larger than ever. アメリカの有権者は次第に分極化してきている。クリントンのキャンペーンしていた20年前には、ギャラップの調査では有権者の分類は 穏健(中庸)派=43%、保守派=36%、リベラル=17%であった。2011年には穏健(中庸)派=36%、保守派=41%、リベラル=21%である。
Another Gallup finding that should alert Democrats is the ongoing collapse of public confidence in government. A survey released earlier this week found that Americans now believe that the federal government wastes 51 cents of every dollar it spends, the highest estimate ever recorded. Twenty-five years ago, that figure stood at only 38 cents. While estimates of waste at the state and local level remain lower than for the federal level, they have also risen by double digits in recent decades. ギャラップの調査では、民主党が憂慮すべき別の兆候を示していて、有権者の政府に対する信頼が低下している。連邦政府が税金のムダ 使いをしていると見る有権者が多く、政府支出の51%を無駄と見ていて、これはこれまでの最悪の値である。25年前にはこの値は38%であ った。(後略)
中国では2億人以上が微博を利用。7月の浙江省の高速鉄道事故など大規模な事故や事件のたびに政府に批判的な内容が多数 書き込まれており、当局の圧力で微博の運営会社が規制を強化しているとみられる。 男性は鉄道事故を伝えるニュース写真で、盛光祖鉄道相が7万元(約84万円)相当とみられる腕時計を使用していると気付いた。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.france24.com/en/20110921-2011-09-22-0122-wb-en-webnews Chinese blogger points to luxury watches as sign of corruption このページにあるビデオニュースの最初の部分で、中国高官のお気に入りの豪華腕時計というニュースが