There’s no easy way out of the current economic malaise. The odds are rising that the Federal Reserve will move ahead on September 21 with some form of stimulus, Feinman said. The most likely outcome: the Fed will replace expiring short-term debt on its balance sheet with longer-term maturities. That will help push long-term rates even lower. They are already at a low level, hovering just over 2 percent. Pushing long-term rates into the 1.75 percent zone will help the economy just a bit and Feinman believes it is a step worth taking.
Unchain capital
“The problems with the economy aren’t monetary,” says Joe Carson U.S. economist at AllianceBernstein. He sad there’s little evidence that the economy is suffering from high interest rates, a lack of access to credit, or a shortage of liquidity. Carson suggests that the U.S. should forgo any additional rounds of quantitative easing, which so far have had a mixed record, helping to lower rates and boost equities while promoting higher commodity prices and a lower dollar, which have offset the benefits.(ry
“The Fed’s open market committee is so riven with dissent that September might still be too soon for the full unleashing of QE, and the following November meeting, with its accompanying press briefing, might be a shade more likely for such an announcement,” Mr Carnell said.
Dick Bove, banking analyst for Rochdale Securities, questioned the suit, arguing that the “forensic analysis of the mortgages” now proposed should have been part of Fannie and Freddie’s underwriting when they bought the mortgage securities.
He also expected negative consequences for the economy. “They are taking measures that will significantly increase unemployment,” he said, arguing that the suit further increases pressure on the banks to shrink, by reducing their lending activity and raising capital. He suggested that the Securities and Exchange Commission should investigate what appeared to be “a well orchestrated campaign to drive BofA out of business”.
The latest legal moves will be celebrated by those who believe that banks have gone unpunished for their part in manufacturing the so-called toxic assets out of subprime mortgage securities that clogged the financial system during the credit crisis.
ttp://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/09/04/samsung-on-the-run/ Samsung on the run By Philip Elmer-DeWitt September 4, 2011: 6:27 AM ET The world's No. 1 maker of Android devices is feeling the heat on two fronts 寒村が逃走中 By Philip Elmer-DeWitt 9月4日
Samsung suffered a pair of setbacks last week, although whether they are substantive or superficial remains to be seen. One called into question its impressive sales figures, the other its legal right to sell devices that bear such a striking resemblance to Apple's (AAPL) iPhones and iPads. 先週、寒村は2つの難関に遭遇。第一の問題は其のタブレットの実際の販売高についての疑問、第二の問題はアップルとの iPhones と iPadsに関する特許訴訟での幸先の良くないデュセルドルフでの判決である。
Shipments vs. Sales. Samsung made headlines last year when it announced in December that it had shipped 1 million units of its 7-inch Galaxy Tab -- a figure that Steve Jobs publicly challenged, joking that most of those 1 million Tabs were probably still sitting on the shelf. Jobs may have struck closer to home than he realized, if a report in Friday's Guardian is to be believed. According to Andrew Barrow, an executive at Lenovo, Samsung sold only 20,000 Galaxy Tabs in 2020 -- just 2% of the 1 million it shipped. That's an astonishing low number that 's getting a lot of play in the tech press. But it cannot be considered definitive because it comes from one of Samsung fiercest competitors. 寒村は昨年12月に100万個の7インチGalaxy Tabを出荷したと発表、これについてジョブズは其の100万個のタブレットは 棚ざらしになっているのだろうとジョークを飛ばした。金曜日に英国のガーディアン紙の記事に依ればレノボの役員であ るAndrew Barrowが寒村のタブレットの販売について2020年までに2万台程度という見通しを語り、業界を驚かせた。ジョ ブスのジョークは正しかった? この予測については寒村の主要な競合会社の役員の言辞であるだけに判断は難しいが。
Patent wars. FOSS Patents' Florian Mueller reported Saturday that on the second day of a major electronics trade show in Berlin Samsung was forced to remove from its booth both its new 7.7-inch Galaxy Tabs and the promotional material that accompanied them. It even scraped off the product's name where it appeared below the samples. The incident -- which played out in front of tech journalists from around the world -- stemmed from one of the many patent suits Apple has filed against Samsung, accusing it of "slavishly" copying Apple's intellectual property. Last month a regional court in Dusseldorf issued a preliminary ruling in Apple's favor, banning the sale of the 10-inch Galaxy Tab in Europe. According to Mueller, the court has issued a second injunction extending the ban to cover the new 7.7-inch model. 第二の障害は特許紛争。土曜日の報道に依ればベルリンで開催中のエレクトロニック・トレードショーの会場で寒村は展示中 であった7.7インチのGalaxy Tabsと関連資料を撤去した。先月デュッセルドルフの裁判所はアップルと寒村の特許訴訟でアッ プル有利の判決を示し、10インチタブレットの販売禁止を言い渡した。さらに裁判所は二回目の判断で7.7インチのタブレット についても販売停止を言い渡した。(この販売禁止措置ため、ベルリンのトレードショーから製品が撤去された)(後略)
Obama seems to intend to urge Americans that he be allowed to stay in the White House to prevent Republican extremists taking over the entire government. The candidate of hope and change in 2008 is fast becoming the candidate of fear and the status quo this time around. オバマはアメリカ国民に、共和党の過激派から政府を守るために再選されるべきと訴えるように見えるが、2008年に希望 とチェンジを語ったオバマは、2012年に向けて(ティーパーティの)恐怖と、(政権への)居直りを訴える人に転じた。
先に倒産したカリフォルニア州の太陽光パネルメーカーのソリンドラの続報。このベンチャーのビジネス・プラン には、その収益性を危ぶむ専門家のコメントがあったにもかかわらず、自然エネルギーマンセー政策のシンボルとし て、オバマ政権が$531Mの債務保証を与えていた。まっとうなビジネス審査をしていれば・・ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2011/09/industry_analysts_have_been_questioning_solyndra_business_plan_for_years.html September 3, 2011 Industry analysts have been questioning Solyndra business plan for years Rick Moran この産業分野の専門家のアナリストはソリンドラ−のビジネスプランについて何年も前から疑問を呈していた
Peter Lynch, a longtime solar industry analyst, told ABC News the company's fate should have been obvious from the start. "Here's the bottom line," Lynch said. "It costs them $6 to make a unit. They're selling it for $3. In order to be competitive today, they have to sell it for between $1.5 and $2. That is not a viable business plan."
NYTのコラムニストで極左フェミニストのMAUREEN DOWDの書いているもの。このしとはNYTのコラムニスト の中でもブッシュ非難とオバマ賞賛において最大限のレトリックを駆使してきた人で、エモーショナルな表現を 使うことも躊躇わない。そういうMoDoが、この評論にあるように最近のオバマに失望というか絶望気味のようで たいへんおかすい。政治アナリストの分析よりMoDoのエモーショナルな文章のトーンがオバマを見るリベラル勢 力の状況というか心理というか、そういうものをよく表している。 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/04/opinion/dowd-one-and-done.html?_r=1 One and Done? By MAUREEN DOWD Published: September 3, 2011
・・・ The leader who was once a luminescent, inspirational force is now just a guy in a really bad spot. ・・・ Obama is still suffering from the Speech Illusion, the idea that he can come down from the mountain, read from a Teleprompter, cast a magic spell with his words and climb back up the mountain, while we scurry around and do what he proclaimed. The days of spinning illusions in a Greek temple in a football stadium are done. The One is dancing on the edge of one term. The White House team is flailing ? reacting, regrouping, retrenching. It’s repugnant.
The Greek programme was already in trouble when it was agreed six weeks ago. All the official forecasts were wrong. The country is in a depression, and its debt dynamic is “out of control”, according to its new fiscal council.
In Italy, the central bank expressed concern that the country’s austerity programme would have recessionary effects.
Last week saw a heated dispute between the International Monetary Fund and the eurozone governments over how much banks need to be recapitalised. The final figure for recapitalisation could be far higher than even the IMF’s estimates if the economy plunges back to recession.. ・・・ ・・・ There is, as yet, little recognition in the eurozone’s cacophonous capitals that an economic downturn poses an existential threat. I would expect therefore that the downturn will hit the eurozone with full force, and without defence. When that happens, the eurozone crisis will turn ugly.
All of this certainly raises the stakes for President Obama's much-advertised jobs speech next week. If he wants better results, he's going to have to jettison the policies of the last 31 months, abandon his faith in government-led job creation, and stop assaulting business with higher costs. In a spirit of optimism, we point to his decision yesterday to pull the plug on the EPA's ozone rule (see below). He was elected on hope and change
TRIPOLI, Libya ? In the final weeks of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi’s battle with Libyan rebels, Chinese state companies offered to sell his government large stockpiles of weapons and ammunition in apparent violation of United Nations sanctions, officials of Libya’s transitional government said Sunday. They cited Qaddafi government documents found by a Canadian journalist, which the officials said were authentic. リビアの暫定政府の発表に依れば、中国国営企業が国連安保理の武器供与禁止に違反して、カダフィ政権に多量の武器弾薬 を輸出しようとしていた。カナダのジャーナリストがこの関連文書を発見し、この文書は正統的なものと見られている(後略)
ttp://blogs.voanews.com/breaking-news/2011/09/05/documents-purport-to-show-china-offered-arms-to-gadhafi/ The reports will further complicate relations between Libya's new provisional government and China, which had billions of dollars invested in Libya's oil sector before the anti-Gadhafi revolt began. It is not clear whether the provisional government will honor Gadhafi-era contracts, but NTC officials have hinted they will favor companies from countries that supported their revolt.
ttp://shanghaiist.com/2011/09/05/document_found_in_trash_reveals_chi.php The companies mentioned include Beijing's China North Industries Corp. (Norinco), the China National Precision Machinery Import & Export Corp. (CPMIEC), and China XinXing Import & Export Corp. The Globe and Mail reports that the companies offered the entire catalogue of their stockpiles for sale, and also promised to manufacture new stock if necessary. The accusations are reportedly corroborated by the appearance of new weapons that were previously unseen on the battlefield in Libya:
いずれも超有名な武器輸出会社・・
So it looks like the Chinese government might've been actively trying to keep its business interests intact. Sure there's the whole China-supports-whoever-the-West-gangs-up-on theory, since NATO-backed Regime Change totally gives Chinese leaders the creeps. But to us, it's conceivable that the government was simply interested in keeping a Pahlavi-like dictator in power who could guarantee regular oil shipments.
中国のカダフィ宛に輸出しようとした武器の中で、最も問題視されるのは、携行型の対空ミサイルで(飴のスティンガー 相当の対航空機ミサイル)、NATO軍の航空機を効果的に攻撃できるわけで・・・ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_162-20101573-503543.html Omar Hariri, chief of the TNC military committee, told the Globe and Mail that the documents help explain the presence of brand-new weapons his men encountered on the battlefield.
The items detailed for sale in the memo include: "Truck-mounted rocket launchers; fuel-air explosive missiles; and anti-tank missiles, among others. Perhaps most controversially, the Chinese apparently offered Col. Gadhafi's men the QW-18, a surface-to-air missile small enough for a soldier to carry on his shoulder - roughly similar to a U.S. Stinger, capable of bringing down some military aircraft."
Scheduled for Tuesday actually: That’s South Korea’s financial regulator announcing a conference call with Chinese and Japanese peers, regarding (if we translate it right) “American and European financial health” and their effects on Asian markets. The Kospi did tumble 4.4 per cent on Monday and the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite both fell 2 per cent… 韓国政府の発表では火曜日に金融担当の電話会議があるという。テーマは「アメリカと欧州の金融状況について」およびその アジア市場への影響について。KOSPIは今日4.4%下落しており、日経と上海総合指数は2%程度下落している
Though we can’t think of the last time these three countries have met. China’s inclusion specially leaps out. We’re no doubt making a mountain out of a molehill. On the other hand we would note that all three countries possess large FX “exposure” to Europe (and China and Japan underpin a great deal of demand for eurozone sovereign debt through their FX reserves). The Korean currency crisis of late 2008 is a recent memory too. News of their co-ordination is, needless to say, interesting.
シャープや三洋など世界上位のパネルメーカを我が国は擁していますが、トップのサンテックパワー等、中国勢と彼ら はどう渡り合っていくのか、再生エネルギー買取法案によって日本のエネルギー政策をどう変わるのかを含め、非常に 難しい時期に差し掛かっているのだと思います。 posted by 泥酔論説委員 at 09:27
At pixel time, the Italian 10-year spread to Bunds was past 340bps ? far above recent ECB intervention levels. One of the interesting things about current Italian spreads also is that they have remained wider than Spain’s throughout August. イタリアの10年国債のスプレッドが今の時点で340bp出、これはECBの介入レベルを超えている。またこれはスペイン国債 のスプレッドより大きい。
Theories? And while we’re at it we’ll take theories about the ECB’s absence too. The one doing the rounds currently is that the central bank is ‘punishing’ Italy for not going fast enough on its austerity plan. この説明として考えられるのはECBがイタリアに財政緊縮政策をプッシュするために、そうさせているというものだが・・
“Beatings will continue until morale improves,” a bit. There’s no reason not to think this is what’s happening ? but we think it’s a classic misreading of the situation (and of the liquidity collapse that has consumed Italy for almost two months now). Selling Italian government debt became a proxy for the break-up of the eurozone a long time ago and it is hardly surprising to see European banks hit the wall again on Monday (the Euro Stoxx 600 hit a 29-month low at pixel time).
And of course, there’s no reconciling the bank’s political aim here with the original purpose of the Securities Markets Programme, to keep markets liquid and functioning. It might have been right or wrong for the ECB to start buying Italian debt in the first place but arguably once it’s riding the tiger of the biggest debt stock in the eurozone, it can’t stop halfway.
Shame really. There are all these brilliant, plausible plans to harness the ECB’s balance sheet to stop bond markets from careening totally over the brink, but they all always miss the massive political path dependence of the current eurozone. Ironically it’s the obverse of the frequent analyst calls that the eurozone would survive when the crisis first grew beyond Greece, in June 2010 ? i.e. even if the euro had nothing else, it had political will. Well, that sentiment works both ways.
According to a senior IMF economist who wasn’t identified, Greece will likely face a “hard default” well before March 2012. It could happen during 2011, and perhaps after the current round of negotiations. This acknowledgement from someone very close to the matter in a body that is heavily involved in the bailout, is quite worrying. The current talks are around the first bailout, agreed more than a year ago. Greece definitely missed its targets. The EU /IMF delegation suspended its visit to Greece after discovering that the deficit will be higher. They are expecting fresh steps to be taken by the Greek government. 匿名のIMFのシニア・エコノミストに依れば、ギリシャは2012年3月以前にハード・デフォルトに直面する見込みである。 ギリシャとEU/IMFの交渉が終わった後に、それが起こる可能性があり2011年中に起こる可能性もある。このエコノミスト はギリシャ救済計画に深く関わっており、それだけに発言が憂慮される。1年以上前に合意された再建計画の目標をギリ シャは達成できず、財政赤字は拡大していてEU /IMFの訪問団はギリシャ訪問を中止した。彼らはギリシャ政府の新たな 対応を期待している。
These complications triggered not only the aforementioned expectations for a hard default, according to WSJ: “I expect a hard default definitely before March, maybe this year, and it could come with this program review, ” said a senior IMF economist who is keeping close tabs on the situation. “The chances for a second program are slim.” A hard default means a messy one. A default that is not controlled could have a serious domino effect: it can push banks to bankruptcy (such as French banks, that are highly leveraged), and it can send bond yields of other countries much higher. A hard default for Greece also seriously endangers . WSJの記事に依れば「私は来年3月以前にハード・デフォルトが起こると思う。第二の救済計画に合意できるチャンスは少ない」 ハード・デフォルトが起これば、制御されない場合はドミノ効果により(特にフランスなどの)銀行等に被害が及び、他の ユーロ周辺国の国債イールドが高くなる。 The ECB has bought Spanish and Italian bonds and managed to stabilize things: 10 year yields stood on around 5% after the intervention. The recent retreat of Italy on some of the suggested measures and the political problems of Berlusconi sent yields up once again. All in all, the bailout mechanism secures only one thing: a crisis on every inspection. Last time, it ended with a reshuffle of the Greek governments, fresh austerity measures and violent protests on the streets of Athens. ECBはスペインやイタリアの国債購入を行い、市場の安定化に務めている。先回のギリシャ危機ではギリシャ政府の再編成や 新規財政緊縮化計画、そしてアテネ市街の暴力的デモなどが発生した。
Opposition is also growing in the donating countries. Will the current round be a chance for a change? This is one of the things that sent EUR/USD down on Friday, despite the zero job gains in the US and the higher chances of dollar printing. This will add to the weight on EUR/USD at the beginning of the week. For all the European events and technical analysis, see the euro/dollar forecast. ギリシャ救済への反対勢力も各国で増大している。こうした状況がユーロの対ドル相場に影響している。
“You can’t just make money on SUVs and trucks,” he said at a town hall meeting in Cannon Falls, Minnesota, on August 15. “As gas prices keep going up, you’ve got to understand the market.” Having bailed out Chrysler and GM, he instructed them to invest in electric cars and added, “We put investments” in advanced batteries. “It creates jobs.” 8月15日、ミネソタ州キャノンホールズのタウンホール集会で、オバマ大統領は「SUVやトラックを作ってお金を儲けること はできない」と述べた。「ガソリン価格が上昇を続けているので、そういうエネルギー市場を理解しなくてはならない」 クライスラーやGMを救済した大統領は、それらの会社に電気自動車への投資を命じた。「我々は先進的なバッテリーに投資 している」と大統領はいう。「それが雇用を創りだす」
There you have it. U.S. auto companies would be producing more SUVs and trucks, both popular with car buyers, and fewer electric cars if Obama hadn’t intervened. That practically nobody, except the federal government, is lining up to buy electric cars?that’s seemingly irrelevant to the president. What’s important is that Obama? government?knows what’s best for the future of the auto industry. アメリカの自動車メーカーはオバマ大統領の干渉がなければ、自動車購入者に人気のあるSUVやトラックをより多く製造 していただろう。おそらく連邦政府の関係者以外は誰も電気自動車を買わない。そういうことは大統領から見れば不適切 である。ここで重要なことは、自動車産業の将来に何が重要なのかを、オバマ大統領の政府がよく知っているということ である。(後略) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ フレッド・バーンズの言っていることは、メーカーや業界や消費者よりも政府の判断こそが産業や経済を正しく見通せる という無誤謬で万能の政府、のような左翼の考え方がビジネスにとって成長を妨げる要因になる、というほどのこと。
Or more specifically its Rates Strategy team, which made the following observations in their daily note on Monday. Rating agencies monitoring ?Italy: より正確には、金利動向ストラテジー・チームである。同チームは月曜日に以下のディリー・ノートを発表している
1) Moody’s ? Italy is Aa2 since 2002, but now on downgrade review since 17 June; Moody’s also signalled (18 July) imminent actions on regional/local government. ムーディーズの格付けは2002年にAa2、しかし6月17日以降は格下げ方向で見直し中
2) Fitch at AA- stable since Oct-2006. Fitch published a note 13 July ?Risks to Italy’s Public Finances?, but still kept a stable outlook. フィッチの格付は2006年10月以降AAで安定的。
3) S&P’s outlook for its ?A+ u? was revised to negative on 20 May. The last downgrade was in 2006. S&PはA+で見通しは5月20日以降ネガティブ。S&Pは2006年に格下げしている
So downgrades of Italy by all three agencies look probable, given recent developments. The main motives are likely to be 1) budgetary and macro outlooks; 2) uncertainties over the availability of market financing; and 3) Italy’s high rating relative to peers (as far as Fitch, and especially, Moody’s, is concerned). Well, a downgrade from Moody’s is probable. In fact, we can expect to hear something from very soon ? that’s because a decision usually follows 90 days after a review is announced. We are less sure about S&P. As for Fitch it would have to put Italy under review before any downgrade. これらの状況からイタリアの格下げはあり得る。主な要因は1)国家予算マクロ経済の見通し、2)市場での資金調達の不確 定性、3)イタリアが同列諸国に比べ比較的高い格付けにあること。ムーディーズは見直し開始の90日以内に判断を行うので 格下げということはあり得る。S&Pやフィッチについては良くわからない。 (中略)
Worryingly, Italian duration is slipping longer term, as investors become more wary. There is nothing to suggest that the little blip we saw after the 30 August auction is anything other than a blip. Remember that Italy is also the third largest borrower in the world, and that no negative rating moves have been seen since 2006. So there will be ramifications from Italy downgrades. Indeed. イタリアは世界で第3位の国債発行(規模)の国なので、格下げがあれば、その影響が少なくない。
Far from introducing the promised era of “political leadership”, the DPJ has struggled to provide coherent and consistent policy direction or event to slow the cabinet carousel that leaves inexperienced ministers at the mercy of their unelected officials. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ *日本では民主党が、「官僚支配」を打破し「政治主導」で行政を進めると喧伝して統治を始めたのだけれど、経験不足 (と知識の不足)により大臣や政務官の空回りとか、効果的な統治は行えず、野田政権は官僚との協調を言い出している と解説する記事。
The AFL-CIO chief, Richard Trumka, was at Obama’s speech on Monday, along with other major labor leaders, including SEIU President Mary Kay Henry, Teamsters President Jimmy Hoffa, UAW President Bob King and Utility Workers President Mike Langford. Obama promised the labor movement that he would “stand up for collective bargaining” and that Detroit, especially, is proof that a healthy middle class is key to the country’s well-being. “It’s like the commercial says. This city has been to heck and back,” Obama said. “And while there are a lot of challenges here, I see a city that’s coming back.” ttp://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/62659.html At Detroit rally, few signs of Obama-labor rift ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *WSJの記事について、念の為に書いておくと、WSJは「報道部門」と「論説部門」が完全分離で独立していて、編集長 も各々の部門にいて、まるで別の会社のような形態になっています。そのため「評論部門」は保守的なのですが「報道 部門」は相当リベラルで、記者によっては一般紙よりもリベラルというのもいます。そういうことを念頭において記事 を見る必要があります。
Analysts attributed Monday's stock selloff, sending shares down around 5% in much of Europe, to a multitude of factors. Among them, the market anxiety reflects a concern that euro-zone officials "are not able to get a handle on this crisis," said Carsten Brzeski, economist at ING Bank in Brussels.
The negative turn comes at the start of a pivotal week that includes the European Central Bank's monthly decision on interest rates and a decision by a German court on the legality of Germany's participation in Europe's ?440 billion ($625 billion) rescue fund.(ry
They say the proposals from state prosecutors will need to be expanded before striking a deal, which is expected to involve a total penalty of $10bn to $25bn.
The two sides will meet again this week to iron out their differences. They are close to an agreement on future standards governing the servicing of home loans, yet remain far apart on other issues, such as legal liability claims, compliance and enforcement, and the amount of cash it will take to settle the allegations.
Banks have detailed legal defences, but their case in the culture war is already clear: errors were made, but harassing them now threatens the economy. The claim is doubtful at best. The government could easily make up for capital that is lost in fines, especially if the government itself receives the fines. And a chastised and trusted banking sector would find it easier to raise capital, both financial and political. ttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/588c0706-d7c2-11e0-a06b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1WsUWcG6Y Last updated: September 5, 2011 4:12 pm Bank lawsuits: shot in the culture war
ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903918104576504520213848188.html The 2012 Election Will Come Down to Seven States SEPTEMBER 6, 2011 By LARRY J. SABATO National polls are nice, but Electoral College math is what matters. 2012年の大統領選挙は、結局のところ7つのスーパースィング州の動向で決まるだろう By LARRY J. SABATO 全米世論調査とは別に、各州からの選挙人の集計結果が勝敗を分ける
スーパースイング州というのは: That's why seven super-swing states with 85 electors will determine which party gets to the magic number of 270 electoral votes: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18) and Virginia (13). 大統領選の選挙人の過半数である270を得るには、コロラド、フロリダ、アイオワ、ネバダ、ニューハンプシャー、オハイオ、 バージニアの動向が決め手になる。(この中でも選挙人の数の多いフロリダとオハイオ、バージニアは特に重要)
Prior to Obama's 2008 victories in each of these states, several had generally or firmly leaned Republican since 1980. Virginia, which hadn't voted Democratic since 1964, was the biggest surprise, and its Obama majority was larger than that of Ohio, which has frequently been friendly to Democrats in past decades. Massive Hispanic participation turned Colorado and Nevada to Mr. Obama, and it helped him in Florida. 2008年の大統領選挙では、これらの7つの州の中でも、1964年以降は共和党支持であったバージニアがオバマ支持にかわって 驚かされた。度々民主共和の両側に揺れるオハイオ州は2008年にオバマに傾き、コロラド州やネバダ州ではヒスパニック層の 投票率が大幅向上してオバマ勝利となり、それはフロリダ州でも見られた。(後略)
Nonetheless, current trends are highly unfavorable for the president. By 2 to 1, more Americans now say the administration’s economic policies are making the economy worse rather than better. The number who say those policies have helped has been chopped in half since the start of the year. The percentage of Americans disapproving of how Obama is doing when it comes to creating jobs spiked 10 percentage points higher since July. Of the more than six in 10 who now disapprove of Obama’s work on jobs and the economy, nearly half of all Americans “strongly” disapprove.
ttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/09/06/670301/snb-euroquake-the-analysts-react-part-two/ SNB euroquake, the analysts react ? part two Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Sep 06 12:17. スイス国立銀行の為替介入措置へのアナリストのリアクション パートII FTアルファビレ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- *幾つかの銀行のアナリストによるSNBの政策への評価、コメンタリーの纏め。興味深い議論がある。 バークレイズ銀行のコメンタリーは、ユーロの迷走が更に深刻化する場合のSNBのこの政策に関わるリスクについて言及して:
The SNB has effectively set its monetary policy with reference to the value of the EUR. But who knows what that value will be in the future?
If so, this policy will have to change at some point, and the pressures are not going to be to the topside of EUR/CHF if that’s the case. It is possible that markets will backwards induct to question the EUR/CHF floor now. Anchors in quicksand can lead to shipwrecks.
We see little upside to EUR/CHF in the short run, as Eurozone debt issues are unlikely to be resolved soon and could easily deteriorate further. And with little carry to pay, the cost of keeping short EUR/CHF positions is relatively low. This is consistent with the positions we are seeing from some clients who are short EUR/CHF: risk/reward still looks attractive if one considers that the success of this measure partly hinges on the Eurozone’s own success.
ttp://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/09/06/670431/athenian-rhapsody/ Athenian Rhapsody Posted by FT Alphaville on Sep 06 14:34. アテネ狂詩曲 FTアルファビレ Alan Beattie, FT International Economy Editor and FT Alphaville’s new A&R man, has sent us a rock opera by two parodists whom wish to remain anonymous. We’ve done all we can to confirm one of them isn’t Ben Elton but we can’t give you our full reassurance.
To the tune of Queen’s Bohemian Rhapsody (ボヘミアン・ラプソディの曲で) Athenian Rhapsody (The Ballad of Papandreou) パパンドレウへのバラード
Is this our real debt? これは本当? Is this just fantasy? それとも、ファンタジーなの? Won in a landslide 地すべりのような動乱 Now I’m facing austerity そして、緊縮財政 I opened the books 会計帳簿を開いてみれば、思わず And said “are you kidding me?” これってマジかよ? Did what we did to get into the Eurozone ユーロに加盟せんがため So there was never a need to grow 成長などはなかったが Euro’s high, rates stayed low ユーロの高みに達して、低い金利を得むと Anything to enter, didn’t really matter to Greece, to Greece 加盟のためには何事かはあらむ
Papa, just told the truth パパがいっていたことに No one’s paying any tax 誰も税金なんか払わない And my colleagues here are hacks 同僚は盗人のよう Papa, Greece had everything パパ、ギリシャには全てがあったけど But the bankers came and took it all away 銀行家が来てかっさらっていったと Papa, ooh ooh ooh ooh パパ、オー、おー、おー Goldman told us it would work ゴールドマンが、こうすればうまくゆくといい and now I sit here like a jerk そのおかげで、今ではガタガタ They were wrong, they were wrong, that swap illusion’s shattered アイツらは間違ってた、間違ってた、スワップの幻影 は粉々になった
Too late, the market crashed マーケットはクラッシュ、今や遅すぎ My country’s on the brink 祖国は破滅寸前 And my bond spreads really stink 国債スプレッドは凄い値になって Goodbye to the good life ? it’s got to go グッド・バイ、昔の良き暮らし I never thought our bonds could trade so low 国債がこんなに安くなるなんて思っても見なかった Papa, ooh ooh ooh ooh ? (anyway my yields go) パパ、おー、おー、おー No one wants to buy 誰も買おうとしない And some folks wish they never had bought at all… それを買わなければよかったのにと思っている人も
We need some euros need some euros very fast ユーロが必要だ、今直ぐにユーロが必要だ Mykonos, Skiathos, you can sell them to China ミコノス島、スキアトス島は中国に売るのかすらん DSK and Regling ? say our debt is frightening ? Hey, DSK と Reglingはギリシャの負債にぞっとするという Papandreou, Papandreou, パパンドレウ、パパンドレウ Papandreou, Papandreou, パパンドレウ、パパンドレウ Papandreou runs the show ? he’s out of dough oh oh oh パパンドレウが舞台を回す、彼はガス抜きをする
He’s a professor from Minnesota 彼はミネソタの大学教授 He’s a professor leading his country 彼は国を指導する経済学教授 Found that the Greeks had been cooking the books ギリシャの会計に粉飾があったと発見
Bail in ? bail out ? will you bail us out? 救済、救済、助けてくれるの? ECB. Nein! We will not bail you out ECBは否、救済はしないという Bail us out 救済キボンヌ IMF. We will not bail you out IMFは救済しないという Bail us out PSI. We will not bail you out PSIも救済しないという Bail us out 助けて Will not bail you out 我々は救済しない Bail us out (never) 助けて Never bail you out 決して救済しない Bail us out 助けて Never bail you out ? ooh ooh ooh 決して救済しない、おー、おー、おー Nein, nein nein nein nein nein nein! 否、否、否、否
Oh mama Merkel, mama Merkel, mama Merkel we’ll default ママ・メルケル、ママ・メルケル、我々はデフォルトするよ The Bundestag has no package set aside for Greece ドイツ中央銀行には救済パッケージはないという For Greece ギリシャのためには For Greece ギリシャのためには
China: So you think you can stiff me and just say goodbye? 中国は割りに合わないからグッド・バイというだけ? So you think I’ll just hold and continue to buy? それとも相変わらず国債を買ってくれる? You’ll pay us ? we’ll want more than Piraeus Ships, airports and banks, as for your unions, no thanks! あなた方が我々に支払うために、ピレウス港の船や、空港や銀行をもとめるけど組合はノーサンキュー Ooh yeah, ooh yeah オーヤー Once we had an empire その昔、我らは帝国なりき That is history How did this transpire? ? back to Minnesota for me. その歴史が、どうしてこうなった? ミネソタにもどれ Goodbye to the Euro… ユーロにグッド・バイ
WSJアジア版の(準)社説というべきレビュー&アウトルック ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904537404576551643144624846.html REVIEW & OUTLOOK ASIA SEPTEMBER 7, 2011 Won-dering as They Wander:The inflationary costs of a cheap currency hit Korea. 韓国政府はウォンの対ドル相場を低くする政策をとっているが、それがインフレを招いている件
Is anyone really surprised inflation in South Korea has hit a three-year high? They shouldn't be. Seoul is, like so many other East Asian governments, in large part a victim of economic policies hatched in Washington. Yet Korean policy makers seem to be doing everything they can to make their monetary problems worse. 韓国でインフレが加速しているのだが、その理由はアメリカのFRBの緩和政策による通貨の高騰を抑えるために韓国 政府のやっている政策(ドル買いウォン売りを含む)のためである
The government was quick to blame last week's price-rise data?up 5.3% for August compared to the same month last year?on that old inflationary whipping boy, the weather. Summer flooding supposedly depressed agriculture supplies and pushed food prices higher. Perhaps that even explains part of it. 韓国政府は気候不順や洪水を避難しているが5.3%の物価上昇というのはその全部を天候のせいにはできない (略) Korea, however, has managed to make matters worse by attempting a form of competitive devaluation of the won on the sly. Dollar inflows have also sparked currency appreciations in most corners of Asia, with the yen (up 17.5% vis-a-vis the dollar since January 2010), Singapore dollar (14%) and Thai baht (10%) leading the pack. FRBの緩和政策によるドル安は、アジア諸国には円で17.5%(2010年1月比較)、シンガポールドルで14%、タイバーツで10% という通貨の上昇を起こしている。これに対して韓国は通貨を安く保つ政策を取り、それがインフレに関わる事情を悪化させ ている Data on foreign-exchange reserve accumulation over the past two years also suggest the government may be quietly buying dollars and selling won, although the government denies this. 韓国の外貨準備の数字からみて、韓国政府は否定しているけれどドル買いウォン売りに動いていることが推測される
This strategy, aimed at averting a won appreciation, appears to be working. At 8.4%, the won has seen the slowest appreciation against the dollar of any East Asian currency. This is, if not an outright competitive devaluation, certainly a competitive slower appreciation. この韓国政府のウォン安政策は効果を上げているようであって、ウォンの対ドル上昇率は8.4%で東アジア諸国の中で最低で ある。競合的通貨切り下げとは言えないが、競合的通貨高騰防止とでも言うべきだろう
Superficially, the strategy appears to be working. Korean exporters can claim some advantages in particular over their Japanese peers, who are saddled with both a rising yen and a sclerotic government. But the inflation data make clear that a cheap won can quickly become an expensive strategy for Korea as Koreans have to pay more of their relatively less valuable currency to buy the same goods. Low interest rates also are spurring an inflationary consumer credit bubble. このウォン安政策は競合する日本製品との、輸出市場での価格優位に役に立つのだが(日本は円高と融通の効か無い柔軟性 のない政府に悩んでいる)、ウォン安政策と低金利政策はインフレを亢進させる
Seoul played exactly this game in 2007 and 2008, resisting tightening amid an earlier round of easy Fed dollars until inflation skyrocketed. Seoul's exit strategy at that time turned out to be a global financial crisis (plus the strategic firing of the finance minister who had presided over the won's depreciatory "overshooting"). Policy makers should be looking for a more elegant solution this time around. While there's little Seoul can do to control the Fed, Korean policy makers could do a much better job of protecting the economy from the worst of the dollar storm. 韓国政府は2007−2008年にも同じ政策を行った。インフレが更新し、その政策をやめる時がグローバルな金融危機と重なった。 今回は、政策立案者は、よりエレガントな手法を考えるべきである。韓国政府はFRBの動きを制御できないが安いドルの流入 に対する対策として、もう少しましなものを考えるべきだ(後略)
ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904900904576554063768827104.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEFTTopBucket OPINION EUROPE SEPTEMBER 7, 2011 The Other Climate Theory:The politics behind cosmic rays. もう一つの気候変動の理論;cosmic raysの影響と(其の理論の)政治的影響 WSJヨーロッパ社説 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- この評論は、以前にこのスレに紹介したCERNの研究者の発表したcosmic raysの雲の形成に与える影響の理論が 地球温暖化論争(人為的温暖化仮説)に与える可能性のあるインパクトについて述べている。
But while the cosmic-ray theory has been ridiculed from the start by those who subscribe to the anthropogenic -warming theory, both Mr. Kirkby and Mr. Svensmark hold that human activity is contributing to climate change. All they question is its importance relative to other, natural factors.
Through several more years of "careful, quantitative measurement" at CERN, Mr. Kirkby predicts he and his team will "definitively answer the question of whether or not cosmic rays have a climatically significant effect on clouds." His old ally Mr. Svensmark feels he's already answered that question, and guesses that CERN's initial results "could have been achieved eight to 10 years ago, if the project had been approved and financed."
Last month's findings don't herald the end of a debate, but the resumption of one. That is, if the politicians purporting to legislate based on science will allow it.
Carol Bartz is out as Yahoo Inc.'s chief executive, said a person familiar with the matter. Ms. Bartz was informed of the decision by Yahoo's board on Tuesday, said this person. Ms. Bartz didn't expect the decision, this person added. Tim Morse, Yahoo's chief financial officer, has been named interim CEO, said this person.(ry
But throwing a bone to exporters is not the most important reason for the central bank to intervene. Central banks are the monopoly suppliers of the commodity known as money. When a currency like the Swiss franc appreciates rapidly, the market is sending a signal that not enough francs are being printed to meet demand.
The modern central banker's weapon of choice for combatting a currency's rapid rise in value is a "sterilized" intervention?in which a bank sells its currency against another, but then sells bonds or other instruments so the amount of money in circulation doesn't change. This may have a psychological effect on speculators but does nothing to change the supply-demand imbalance. 現代の中央銀行の通貨高騰に対する対策は「不胎化」の通貨介入である。しかし
The Swiss National Bank, by contrast, seems to be buying euros with francs without offsetting the purchases elsewhere. In other words, it seems prepared at last to meet the increased demand with additional supply. This need not be inflationary for Switzerland. Should demand for francs recede in the future, the central bank can easily mop up the additional money it's creating now by selling the foreign-exchange it's currently buying to keep the franc steady. SNBのやっているのは「不胎化」なしの介入で、マネー供給を増やす準備があるように見える。スイスの現状では、これは インフレにつながらない。
It's not fashionable these days for central bankers to worry too much about the external value of their currencies. Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods exchange-rate system in the 1970s, policy makers have grown fond of saying that markets should set exchange rates. But markets can't set the value of a commodity whose sole supplier is the central bank, and this pseudo-laissez-faire is an abdication of central banks' duty to control the supply of their currency, both internally and externally. Full marks to the Swiss for breaking with this mistaken central-bank orthodoxy. 中央銀行の外為介入というのはブレトンウッズ体制の崩壊以降、あまりファッショナブルとみなされていないが、市場は 中央銀行が独占供給するところのマネーというコモディティの価値を定めることはできない。レッセフェア(自由放任)の 方法は中央銀行の通貨供給管理責任の放棄と言える。スイス銀行の政策には満点をあげたい。
There could, however, be some much larger consequences for other safe haven currencies like the yen. The Japanese currency is not overvalued in the same way as the Swiss franc ? in fact, it is not overvalued at all ? but the Bank of Japan would not welcome the increased inflows which could be triggered by its new status as the only safe haven among the major currencies. It may have to follow the Swiss example, and increase its intervention, if it is avoid an unwanted appreciation. It will probably do so, though not necessarily with the unequivocal force of the SNB. 日本の円は、スイスフランと同じ意味には過剰評価されていないが、日本銀行は安いドルのセーフヘブンへの流入を歓迎 しないだろう。日本銀行はSNBに習って介入を増加させざるを得ないかも知れない。
President Barack Obama’s re-election prospects look dimmer by the day, so ? absent an economic turnaround ? he’s likely to try to win in 2012 the way Harry Truman did in 1948: by blasting Republicans. Every new poll contains bad political news for Obama, suggesting that if the election is a referendum on him, he’s headed for defeat. オバマが再選される見込みが日を追って悪化している。経済状況が好転しないのであれば2012年に彼の再選される見通しは 暗く、オバマはトルーマンが1947年にとったのと同じ戦略にゆくだろう。最近の世論調査はオバマに不利なものばかりで 大統領選が彼の信任投票になるなら、彼は敗退しそうだ。
So, he’s bound to emphasize that elections are a choice and charge that what Republicans are serving up ? austerity, mean-spiritedness and retrenchment ? will hurt most Americans, not help them. Already in speeches this summer he’s been blaming “partisan brinksmanship” ? meaning GOP opposition ? for Congress’ failure to help put the economy back on track. そういうわけでオバマは大統領選挙を共和党との選択の問題と位置づけ、共和党の言う緊縮財政、支出抑制はアメリカ国民 を傷つけるものとして攻撃し、共和党の「党派的の瀬戸際政策」(つまり共和党の反対)が経済回復の政策を妨げていると 主張する。
Presumably, he will lay out an ambitious jobs agenda in his address to Congress this week ? he has nothing to lose ? with every expectation that it will be dead on arrival among Republicans. Then he can wail away at them as “do nothing” as Truman did the Republican-dominated 80th Congress. 更に彼は野心的な雇用創出計画を発表し、そうすることで彼は失うものは何もないのだが、共和党の反対は最初から解って いる。そのあとで彼はトルーマンが共和党に支配された議会に対応したのと同じように何もしない事ができる。
>>655 (続き) Obama is in worse shape in the polls than Truman was at a comparable point in 1947. Obama’s Gallup poll approval rating is 39 percent. Truman’s was 55 percent, but it actually descended to 36 percent in April 1948, creating the near-universal perception that he would lose in November. Unfortunately for Obama, the unemployment rate in 1947 and 1948 was 3.5 percent, and economic indicators were all improving despite labor strife and other difficult post-war adjustments. オバマは1947年のトルーマンよりも不利な立場にいて、ギャラップ世論調査の支持率は39%だが、トルーマンは55%であっ た。もっともそれは1948年4月には36%に低下して11月の選挙での敗退の観測を広めている。オバマにとっては不幸なことに 1947−48年の失業率は3.5%で戦後の経済調整の困難さはあっても経済は上向きのシグナルを示していた。
Obama is burdened not just with a 9.1 percent unemployment rate but with the widespread fear that he and the federal government have no idea how to rekindle the economy and could not bring it off if they did know. As Republican pollster Bill McInturff summarized the situation in a presentation last week, the collapse of consumer confidence is “chilling ? not only for what it may portend for the economy but also for [Obama’s] re-election chances.” オバマは9.1%という高い失業率に加えて、彼の民主党政権が経済回復の能力を持たないのではとの恐怖を与えている。 共和党の世論調査分析担当のBill McInturffは、消費者の信頼感の喪失を「経済の現状のみならず、オバマ再選の望みを 凍結するもの」という。
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit 55.7 percent in August, down from 67.7 percent last October and 63.7 percent in July. “There is no precedent for an incumbent president being re-elected when this scale is at 75 or below,” McInturff said. ミシガン州消費者信頼感指数は昨年8月の67.7や7月の63.7から低下して55.7となった。「この指数の75以下で大統領の再選 された例はない」という。 (中略) In 1947, Truman proposed a very liberal “fair deal” agenda including richer unemployment, Social Security and public employee benefits, public works programs, a higher minimum wage, price controls and aid to farmers. The GOP rejected almost all of it. 1947年にトルーマンはたいへんリベラルな「フェア・ディール政策」を提案し、失業者への手当増加、社会保障と公共職員 の福利の増大、公共事業計画、最低賃金の増加、価格統制と農民支援などを打ち出した。共和党(の支配する議会)は、この ほとんど全てを拒否した。
>>658 (続き) Obama is signaling he’ll call for infrastructure building, patent reform, trade agreements and continued payroll tax cuts. I hope he also goes big on tax reform. Whatever he proposes, Republicans are sure to oppose most of it. His hope has to be that Republicans nominate a candidate associated with the tea party ? which has support from only 20 percent of voters, according to the Pew Research Center ? or that they choose someone so unacceptable that the tea party runs a separate candidate. オバマはインフラ建設計画を提案していて、それに加えて特許の改正、通商条約の強化や所得税減税の継続をいっている。 私は彼が税制改正にも踏み込むことを期待するが、彼が何を提案しても共和党は全て拒否するだろう。オバマの希望は共和党 がティーパーティ(PEW研究所の調査に依れば有権者の20%しか支持していない)の候補者を選び、あるいは他の候補者を選ん でティーパーティが独自の候補者を立てること(保守勢力の分裂)である。
What Obama can’t count on is that the GOP candidate will be so confident of victory that he says nothing, as Thomas E. Dewey did in 1948. Obama will have to fight, and I’d guess the election will be ugly. オバマが当てにできないのは1948年に共和党のThomas E. Deweyがしたように勝利を確信するあまり何も言わないということ である。オバマは戦闘が必要で、私は選挙戦が酷いもの(中傷合戦泥仕合)になるのではないかと思う。
リーマンショック前の2008年と2011年の第一四半期で比較 (In millions of U.S. dollars)
Total foreign exchange holdings (Allocated reserves)
2008 Ip 2011 Ip
Claims in U.S. dollars 2,768,807 3,219,964 Claims in pounds sterling 204,034 218,365 Claims in Japanese yen 136,563 201,976 Claims in Swiss francs 6,601 5,649 Claims in euros 1,169,496 1,409,099 Claims in other currencies 96,823 250,472
RTRS-GERMAN CONSTITUTIONAL COURT SAYS REJECTS LAWSUITS AIMED AT BLOCKING GERMAN PARTICIPATION IN EURO ZONE BAILOUTS RTRS-GERMAN CONSTITUTIONAL COURT SAYS RULING ON BAILOUTS WAS “VERY TIGHT” RTRS-GERMAN CONSTITUTIONAL COURT SAYS PARLIAMENT MUST HAVE SAY IN DECISIONS THAT LEAD TO BURDENS FOR GERMAN BUDGET RTRS-GERMAN CONSTITUTIONAL COURT SAYS GOVT MUST GET APPROVAL OF PARLIAMENTARY BUDGET COMMMITTEE BEFORE GRANTING ANY AID Now, it’s the two headlines in bold that are the most important (in our opinion). At pixel time the full ruling was not available (it should appear here later) so we don’t know precisely what it all means. But it looks like the Court will not force the Bundestag to have full plenary sessions to vote on every activation of the EFSF (or one of its four new tools) but rather will accept a decision made by the Budget Committee (made up of around 40 MPs). 現時点の理解では、ドイツ政府はユーロ周辺国救済のEFSFの実施について議会本会議の承認は不要であるが予算委員会の承認を要する
That is something of a positive (it will make the process less cumbersome) and might explain why markets have taken the news in their stride. The euro has risen slightly and equity markets across Europe remain sharply higher. Indeed, this point was picked up Silvio Peruzzo and Jan Dubsky of RBS on Wednesday morning. これはポジティブな判断で、市場は歓迎しているように見える。
Should the parliament need a full vote, this would typically delay the activation of the EFSF or of its tools by a few days while the Budget Committee could vote within hours. In any event, this week’s court ruling is likely to be another negative for confidence. And that surely is the wider point. A parliamentary vote is now required for Germany to participate in any future bailout via the EFSF and ESM, which adds another layer of complexity to any already fraught situation. もし議会本会議での承認が必要とされたならEFSFの承認手続きに時間を要したであろう。将来のドイツのEFSFやESMを通じた 救済参加には議会(予算委員会)での投票が要求される(ry
ドイツ憲法裁判所の、EFSF参加が違憲ではないと言う判断は予想されていたけれど、条件をつけたことについて FTの記事は: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING Belgium, said the decision did not amount to a green light for any future rescue package. “Today’s ruling should bring some relief to financial markets as a total chaos scenario has been avoided but it should not lead to euphoria,” he said. “A bigger say for German parliament in future bailouts could easily find copycats in other eurozone countries, undermining the clout of the beefed-up EFSF,” as well as the permanent European Stability Mechanism to be established from 2014, he added. He said that the ruling should clear the way for the Bundestag to approve the new reforms to the EFSF at the end of September.
It is becoming ever clearer that the developed world is making Japan’s mistake of premature retrenchment during a balance-sheet depression, but on a more dangerous ? far more global ? scale. Conventional wisdom is that fiscal retrenchment will lead to resurgent investment and growth. An alternative wisdom is that suffering is good. The former is foolish. The latter is immoral.
Reconsidering fiscal policy is not all that is needed. Monetary policy still has an important role. So, too, do supply-side reforms, particularly changes in taxation that promote investment. So, not least, does global rebalancing. Yet now, in a world of excess saving, the last thing we need is for creditworthy governments to slash their borrowings. Markets are loudly saying exactly this. So listen.
The Dow jumped 276 points today, its 19th triple-digit move in the past 26 exhausting trading days, stretching back to August 2nd. Ten of those days have been down, 9 have been up 8月2日以降の26日間で、19日は3桁のダウの値動きがあって、↓が10日、↑が9日だという。
・・・ but these wild swings are not signs of a healthy market.
This dramatic action is likely to result in three big changes in the foreign exchange markets.
■First, the Swiss franc will begin to lose its haven status (ry ■Second, SNB foreign currency reserves will increase even more・・ ■Third, the US dollar increasingly looks set for a broader-based rally as risk-averse investors run out of other havens to turn to. (ry
If successful, it will give Swiss policymakers much needed breathing space on the currency. But if the authorities cannot maintain their new experimental exchange rate policy, they may need to consider more, unpalatable measures such as capital controls. That would mark another step back to the 1970s, a move that was simply inconceivable before the credit crunch began four years ago.
ケインズの言う不況時の政府部門の経済刺激策としての支出は「呼び水」とでも言うべきで According to the Keynesians, the remedy for today’s economic problem is for the federal government, as the single biggest actor, to “prime the pump.” As government money starts to ripple through the economy, consumers and businesses will be encouraged and cautiously respond with limited increases of their own. Vroom! The economic engine steadily revs up in billions of responsive steps until happy days are here again. This pump-priming reaction is termed the “multiplier effect.” オバマ経済刺激策の予定した乗数効果は4(オバマ経済vヒームの試算)であるが、批判的なエコノミストの試算では 乗数効果は0.8〜1.2である。これは刺激策のお金の使い方の問題。
●経済刺激政策とは、一時的で、自己回収的な政府支出("temporary and self-liquidating.")
ケインズの提唱した不況時の政府支出(経済刺激策)はカウンター・サイクリカルで民間部門の投資を呼び起こすもので あり、一時的で自己回収的な("temporary and self-liquidating.")ものである。別の言葉でいえば恒久化する社会福祉 システムへの支出増大(=オバマ医療改革)や公共部門の機能の増大拡大ではない。
In fact, from where I sit, it appears as though everyone except Uncle Sam is working like mad to strengthen his balance sheets. The legitimate fear across the country is that Washington’s refusal to join our common-sense parade will result in higher taxes, more regulations, more inflation and Japanese-style stagflation. In other words, Washington’s attempts at stimulus through spending are having the opposite effect. Businesses and consumers stay hunkered down.
With much talk of co-ordinated policy moves being hatched at tomorrow’s G7 meeting, it seems that some folks do not “get” that the biggest risks in left field item terms are unilateral moves, despite the ‘shock and awe’ of the SNB move. Now look at the progression in Norges Bank governor’s language since Tuesday, as per the headlines below.
09:07 08Sep11 RTRS-NORWAY C.BANK CHIEF SAYS A TOO STRONG CROWN CAN CAUSE OVER TIME TOO LOW INFLATION AND TOO WEAK GROWTH 09:08 08Sep11 RTRS-NORWAY C.BANK CHIEF SAYS IF THAT HAPPENS THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED BY OUR MONETARY POLICY 09:09 08Sep11 RTRS-NORWAY C.BANK CHIEF SAYS IN NORWAY THIS MEANS SETTING INTEREST IS THE MOST RELEVANT TOOL 09:10 08Sep11 RTRS-NORWAY C.BANK CHIEF SAYS MONETARY POLICY CAN REACT QUICKLY TO CHANGES IN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Quite clearly on Tuesday, he was happy to accept that the charge into the NOK was probably knee-jerk, and thus happy to just to say a new rate path will be outlined in October (i.e. expect rate path to be revised lower), he stuck to that line yesterday, and this morning his frustration at FX markets not getting the message has resulted in a fairly explicit rate cut threat. ノルウェイはSNBの政策の影響を歓迎し、ノルウェークローネの外為政策については金利政策で対応可能という。10月の金利 政策はたぶん利下げで、それがFX市場へのノルウェイ当局のメッセージ
Expect more of this in places like Sweden, Canada, and perhaps one or other of the LatAms (Brazil, Chile & Colombia are obvious candidates, Peru tonight an outsider) and Asia (Philippines, South Korea and Indonesia are the prime candidates). Point is, a global crisis may need a global conclusion. こうしたSNB政策へのリアクションが、今後スウェーデン、カナダ、そしてたぶんブラジル、チリ、コロンビアなどのラテン アメリカ諸国や、韓国、フィリピン、インドネシアなどのアジア諸国に現れよう
He did manage to make the point that, although Texas spends less money on education than many other states and?horror of horrors to Brian Williams, cut education spending from projected levels this year?that its black and Latino students tend to have higher test scores than in many high-spending teacher-union-dominated states. He was, I think, suitably presidential in going out of his way to give Barack Obama and the Navy SEALs credit for killing Osama bin Laden, and he was steadfast in defending Texas’s record on capital punishment. (Note to Brian Williams: You may be against capital punishment, as I am, but most Americans favor it in appropriate circumstances, and every American president including Barack Obama has supported it; it’s not un-American to execute the most heinous criminals.)
PRINCETON, NJ -- President Barack Obama earned the lowest monthly job approval rating of his presidency to date in August, with 41% of U.S. adults approving of his overall job performance, down from 44% in July. He also received term-low monthly job approval ratings from both Hispanics (48%) and whites (33%) and tied his lowest rating from blacks (84%).
WSJの(準社説的)レビュー&アウトルック、米国政府のFHFAの大手銀行への訴訟事件を評して ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904537404576554783361503232.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_AboveLEFTTop REVIEW & OUTLOOKSEPTEMBER 9, 2011 Fannie and Freddie as Victims:The toxic twins now blame banks for their losses. ファニーメイとフレディマックは、自分たちが被害者だと言っているわけだ 二つの不良住宅金融機関は、今やモーゲージの損失について銀行を非難している
With the government's lawsuits last week against 17 big banks, we can now say we've seen it all. The suits attempt to argue that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-created mortgage giants at the center of the financial crisis, were in fact unwitting victims.
One has to laugh or cry examining the complaints drafted by Fan and Fred's regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). As the conservator for the two mortgage monsters since their federal rescue in 2008, the FHFA is suing most of the financial industry on grounds that banks misrepresented to Fan and Fred the quality of loans inside mortgage-backed securities bought by the two firms during the housing boom. Yes, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now shocked, shocked to discover they were buying low-quality mortgages during the housing mania. ・・・ Even the report of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, whose Democratic majority tried to minimize government's role in the meltdown, acknowledged the Fan and Fred mess. Its final report quoted an FHFA examiner who observed that Fannie was "the worst-run financial institution" he'd seen in 30 years as a regulator.
ttp://www.10news.com/news/29124110/detail.html?source=sand According to SDG&E, the outage originated in Arizona and caused both of its major electrical connections to the region to trip off. In addition to knocking out power to much of San Diego County, the outage also affected people in Mexico, Baja California, the Coachella Valley in Riverside County and southern Orange County. The cause of the outage was not immediately known, although SDG&E officials said the recent hot weather meant there was a lot of strain on the system, and that could have contributed to the problem.
電力会社SDG&Eによれば、サンディエゴなどに送電する二つの供給経路が遮断した。原因はまだ不明であるが、最近の 暑さで電力供給系への負荷が増大していて、それが原因かもしれない SAN DIEGO -- UPDATE (7:50 p.m.): CBSニュース
ttp://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFN1E78729H20110909 Stuck without refrigeration, employees at the Cardiff Seaside Market, a grocery and specialty food store in the town of Cardiff-by-the-Sea, north of San Diego, started grilling their inventory of fresh steaks and tuna in the parking lot and selling it cooked to passersby for cash.
"It's real hectic, there's lines everywhere now. But the customers are happy, everyone's patient, everyone's in a good mood, and we're serving them as quickly as we can," manager John Shamam, 33, said as he served up a plate of tuna. 「無茶苦茶忙しいが、お客は喜んでいる。できるだけ速くお客にサービスしたい」とマネージャーのJohn Shamamがツナのバー ベキューを調理しながら述べた
Many of the Tweets from San Diego residents revolved around air conditioning. "I'm going to die of heat in this house with no AC!" wrote Ashleigh Marie. "What am I supposed to dooo." サンディエゴのツイッターではエアコン停止に文句をいっていて「エアコン無しで家にいるので死にそうだ、どうすべえ」 とAshleigh Marieが書いている
ttp://www.chron.com/news/article/Power-out-for-millions-in-US-Mexico-2161966.php In the desert heat of the Palm Springs area, the temperature was 111 on Thursday, with the rolling blackouts. The Eisenhower Medical Center will serve as an oasis of air conditioning since it operates on its own power source, said hospital spokeswoman Deborah Johnson. Johnson welcomed fragile seniors and others affected by the heat to cool off in their lobby.
He said the utility lost power due to a transmission failure that started at a large switching station in Arizona, where several high-voltage lines come together, although the cause has not been determined. "I suspect the system was overwhelmed by too many outages in too many places," Niggli said. 電力会社の執行担当役員であるMike Niggliはアリゾナの大型スイッチングステーションで事故発生の後に大規模な停電が おこったという。原因は不明であるが「あちこちで機能停止が多発したので(全体の)システムがダウンしたと思う」という
As we noted earlier, President Obama’s speech was perhaps a little too hotly anticipated, given the political constraints it faces.
And markets were not deeply impressed ? Asia’s main indices were up less than 0.5 per cent, and that’s with Chinese consumer price inflation slowing as expected. Treasury yields and crude oil futures were up, but again, just a little.
The package came in at close to $450bn rather than the $300bn that had been tipped and did include most of the measures businesses were expecting, such as payroll tax cuts, a $10bn “infrastructure bank” and a corporate repatriation tax holiday ? although as BarCap’s Troy Davig observes:
A major mortgage refinancing initiative, however, was largely absent from the package. However, the proposal does include language that the Administration will work with Fannie, Freddie, the FHFA and industry leaders to “remove barriers that exist in the current refinancing program (HARP).”
As for those political challenges, the Obama administration has attempted to wedge the House Republicans by including various proposals from their own party ? as the FT notes, the tax relief measures will be difficult to oppose. And John Boehner’s statement that the President’s proposals “had merit” were relatively conciliatory ? not that that provides much on how the Tea Party-affiliated representatives will react.(ry