【政治経済】平成床屋談義 町の噂その393
ttp://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2011/03/25/libyas_terrorism_option_99456.html
Libya's Terrorism Option By Scott Stewart March 25, 2011
リビアのテロリズム・オプション By Scott Stewart （STRATFOR)
1986年のリビアと米軍の衝突で、リビアは手痛い軍事的打撃をうけたが、カダフィは軍事的に米軍に反撃することができなかった。
彼のやったことは1986年4月の米兵のゆくベルリンのディスコの爆弾事件、スーダンのカーツームでの米国外交官の銃撃事件などの
一連の（日本赤軍も関与する）テロ事件を演出すること、さらに1988年のパンナム航空機爆破事件を起こすことであった。
今回の英米仏によるリビア空軍への空爆攻撃で、カダフィはNATO勢力に反撃できないであろうが、おそらく彼のやるであろう報復攻
撃はテロリストのエージェントをつかったテロ事件を起こすことであろう、という。
Other potential agents for Libyan terrorist attacks are the various African rebel and revolutionary groups Gadhafi has
maintained contact with and even supported over the years. Many of the mercenaries that have reportedly fought on the
side of the Libyan loyalist forces have come from such groups. It is not out of the realm of possibility that Gadhafi
could call upon such allies to attack French, British, Italian or American interests in his allies' respective countries.
Such actors would have ready access to weapons (likely furnished by Libya to begin with), and the capabilities of
host-country security services are quite limited in many African states. This would make them ideal places to conduct
terrorist attacks. However, due to the limited capabilities exhibited by such groups, they would likely require direct
Libyan oversight and guidance (the kind of direct Libyan guidance for African rebels demonstrated in the UTA Flight 772
bombing) if they were to conduct attacks against hardened targets in Africa such as foreign embassies.
Libya's Terrorism Option By Scott Stewart March 25, 2011
リビアのテロリズム・オプション By Scott Stewart （STRATFOR)
1986年のリビアと米軍の衝突で、リビアは手痛い軍事的打撃をうけたが、カダフィは軍事的に米軍に反撃することができなかった。
彼のやったことは1986年4月の米兵のゆくベルリンのディスコの爆弾事件、スーダンのカーツームでの米国外交官の銃撃事件などの
一連の（日本赤軍も関与する）テロ事件を演出すること、さらに1988年のパンナム航空機爆破事件を起こすことであった。
今回の英米仏によるリビア空軍への空爆攻撃で、カダフィはNATO勢力に反撃できないであろうが、おそらく彼のやるであろう報復攻
撃はテロリストのエージェントをつかったテロ事件を起こすことであろう、という。
Other potential agents for Libyan terrorist attacks are the various African rebel and revolutionary groups Gadhafi has
maintained contact with and even supported over the years. Many of the mercenaries that have reportedly fought on the
side of the Libyan loyalist forces have come from such groups. It is not out of the realm of possibility that Gadhafi
could call upon such allies to attack French, British, Italian or American interests in his allies' respective countries.
Such actors would have ready access to weapons (likely furnished by Libya to begin with), and the capabilities of
host-country security services are quite limited in many African states. This would make them ideal places to conduct
terrorist attacks. However, due to the limited capabilities exhibited by such groups, they would likely require direct
Libyan oversight and guidance (the kind of direct Libyan guidance for African rebels demonstrated in the UTA Flight 772
bombing) if they were to conduct attacks against hardened targets in Africa such as foreign embassies.
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