Italian police launched a major operation against Chinese criminal gangs across the country early on Monday, raiding illegal factories and seizing assets. Italy’s Guardia di Finanza tax police said its Florence division had launched what it called Operation Great China in eight regions across Italy. イタリア警察は月曜日に大規模な中国人犯罪組織の捜査を行ない、違法操業の(中国人移民を雇用する)工場や資産を 差し押さえた。税務警察のGuardia di Finanzaはフローレンス(フィレンツェ)部署が「オペレーション・グレート・チャイナ」と 呼ばれる捜査プロジェクトを開始し、イタリア国内の8地域で捜査を行っているとのべた。
Police said 17 Chinese and seven Italians were arrested while 134 others were under investigation. Police also seized 73 companies, 181 properties and 166 luxury cars. Charges levelled against the Chinese included mafia association, money laundering and tax evasion, and organising illegal immigration, labour and prostitution. Some were also charged with counterfeiting, commercial fraud and the selling of goods against “Made in Italy” labelling regulations. 警察によれば17人の中国人、7人のイタリア人が逮捕され、その他に134人が取調べを受けている。73の企業、181の不動産 166の高級車を差し押さえたとしている。犯罪容疑はマフィアとの連携、マネロン、脱税、不法移民の組織的遂行、不法労働 や売春などである。このほかに、偽造や詐欺で捜査されているケース、「イタリア製品」のラベルを付した商品販売の規制に 違反するケースもある。
Police allege that money earned from illegal activites was transferred to China through a money transfer company called Money2Money, based in Bologna and owned by the Italian Bolzonaro family. The alleged Chinese criminal organisation, headed by the Cai family from Hubei province in northern China, had bought a stake in the company using the front name of their cleaning woman, according to police. A person answering the telephone at Money2Money in Bologna said the company had no immediate comment. 警察によれば違法行為で犯罪組織の稼いだ金は、Bolognaにある国際資金移動の会社、Money2Moneyを通じて中国にある 犯罪組織、湖北省のCai一族の所有する企業に送られたという(後略) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ *中国の犯罪組織が外国にビジネスの範囲を広げ、不法移民の送り出し、違法操業工場や販売チャネル開拓などのオペ レーションを拡大し、地元との摩擦が増大しているという・・・
First, the communique illustrates the extent to which we now live in a multi-polar world with no dominant economic party and with excessively weak multilateral coordination mechanisms. The result is what game theorist label a “non -cooperative game,” with a very high likelihood of sub-optimal outcomes. コミニュケの示すものは、支配的な経済論調がないなかの、大変弱い、多極的なコーディネーションのメカニズムであり、 これは「非協力ゲーム」の理論のいうように、意味のある結果をも立たさない
Second, taken at face value, the communique speaks to a relative world in which the US will be the only major country to pursue expansionary policies while others focus on addressing budgetary consolidation-either because they have to or because they wish to. This is yet another factor that points to an increasingly unstable global configuration over time. コミニュケの文面をそのまま受け取るなら米国だけが経済拡張を求め、その他の国が緊縮財政に向かうことになるが、これ は加速的に不安定な状況を示す
Third, we will likely face growing bilateral frictions due to the inability to use this weekend’s G20 gathering to properly address what I argued in a Friday FT column to be an incomplete and narrow characterization of the “growth now” versus “austerity now” debate. G20での、不十分な「今こそ経済成長を」論と、「緊縮財政第一」論のディベートに見られる分裂が二国間の摩擦を作る事に つながるだろう
The bottom line is as follows: I worry that, absent some urgent mid-course corrections, this weekend’s G20 gathering has failed to mark a much needed turning point for a slowing global economy with persistently high unemployment in industrial countries. Instead, it reinforces the concern than we are in for a future of muted growth, deleveraging, periodic debt dislocations in some countries, and higher protectionist pressures. Populations in Europe and the US may have much more to worry about than seeing so many of their teams knocked out early from the World Cup tournament in South Africa. 主要先進国の高い失業率のあるなかでグローバル経済の成長が鈍化し、G20はそれを変えるターニングポイントになること に失敗したのではないかと思う。低成長とデレバレッジ、一部諸国の負債の周期的な転移、保護主義の蔓延が懸念される。 欧州と米国においては、そのチームのWCでの成績よりも、(経済の)心配をすべきことの多いようにみえる。
“Greece will go to the markets mid-July, issuing T-bills of three, six and twelve months,” Deputy Finance Minister Philippos Sachinidis told Reuters. Greek officials have previously said the country may go ahead with a T-bill auction in July but Sachinidis’ comments confirmed those plans. ギリシャの財務副大臣Philippos Sachinidisによれば、ギリシャ政府は7月半ばに3、6、12ヶ月の国債を発行する予定。
“It could prove in the end to be a good idea but it could also end in disaster,” Carsten Luedemann, fixed-income strategist at DekaBank, said. “If they don’t find any bids at all or only at ridiculous levels this would prove finally that Greece is not able to go to the markets, this would be a disaster for Greece.” Deka銀行の債券ストラテジスト、Carsten Luedemannは「国債発行はうまくゆくかもしれないが、もしかすれば破滅的な ことになるかもしれない」という。「国債の買い手が現れないならば、あるいは、大変少ない場合には、これはギリシャ政 府が遂に市場での資金調達の出来ないことを証明することになる。そうなればギリシャにとって破滅的だ」
Since the IMF-EU package is fully funded (i.e. no need for commercial borrowing) through 2011, and the numbers [on Greek austerity measures] are coming in somewhat better than expected, there should be no need for this borrowing ? so why are they doing it? Could it be that they are responding to demand from banks and other investors who have started to appreciated that a debt restructuring [in] the next 12 months is very unlikely and therefore looking for high -yielding assets? If so, this would be a mis-guided move, in my opinion, and ? frankly ? I hope the IMF and EU would tell them to back off. ゴールドマンサックスの主任欧州エコノミストであるErik Nielsenは「IMFとEUによる融資枠があるので、ギリシャ政府は2011 年までは追加の資金調達は必要ではない。何故この国債発行に踏み切るのか? 負債のリストラが当面はないと見て、 銀行などにハイ・イールドの債券需要があるのか? そうであれば、私は個人的に、誤った行き方と思う。IMFやEUはギリシャ にヤメレというべきだ」
ttp://the-diplomat.com/2010/06/28/why-allies-need-okinawa-base/ Why Allies Need US Base June 28, 2010 By David Axe Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan has been left to decide what to do about a controversial US air base. The choice is clear. 何故、同盟国の日本は、沖縄の米軍基地を必要とするのか? By David Axe、デイプロマット 管首相は、沖縄の米軍基地問題を決定すべき立場にあるが、選択は明らかである (部分抜粋)
‘It may be easier for us to be there [in Guam], as far as the diplomatic issue is concerned,’ says Air Force spokesman John Monroe. ‘But if we’re in Guam, we’re out of the fight’ due to the distance. For combat forces to be capable of reacting quickly to the most likely crises, Okinawa is the only realistic option. 米国にとってはグアム基地の方が外交的問題が少ないわけだが、危機における対応能力の点で、グアムは遠すぎて 沖縄基地が必要なのだ、と空軍の広報官が言っている
Without its 2 Okinawan air bases and their 3 roughly 10,000-foot runways, the US military?and by extension, US allies ?would depend almost entirely on a handful of US aircraft carriers for bringing to bear aerial firepower in East Asia. That might be a realistic option, except that China has lately deployed several new classes of anti-ship weaponry specifically meant for sinking US carriers, including the widely-feared DF-21 ballistic missile and a flotilla of stealthy fast-attack vessels. 東アジアでの危機対応で、沖縄基地のない場合は空母に頼るほかない。それは現実的な代替えに見えるかもしれないが 中国は最近、米国の空母を標的にした新たな攻撃兵器を開発している。DF21ミサイルやステルス攻撃艇などである。
In recognition of Okinawa’s growing importance, the Pentagon has spent billions of dollars in the past decade modernizing forces and facilities on the island. The US Army deployed Patriot air-defence missiles capable of shooting down enemy aircraft as well as ballistic missiles, a favourite weapon of both China and North Korea. Kadena got extensive new storage bunkers for bombs, missiles and spare parts, allowing the base to support potentially hundreds of aircraft flown in from the United States during an emergency. In 2007, the US Air Force began stationing Global Hawk long-range spy drones and F-22 Raptor stealth fighters at Kadena. 沖縄基地の重要性は増大しているので、ペンタゴンは最近の10年間に数十億ドルを費やして沖縄の施設を更新してきた。 沖縄にはパトリオット対ミサイル防衛ミサイルが配置され、これは沖縄基地が北朝鮮や中国のミサイルの攻撃目標になり得 ることを想定している。嘉手納には爆弾、ミサイル、スペアパーツの大掛かりなバンカーがあり、此れは潜在的に数百の航 空機が、非常時には米国から沖縄にやって来る事態を想定している。2007年にはグローバルホークとF-22の沖縄駐留を行 っている。
The strategic uncertainty is in the margins. ‘There’s no question you want to engage China, but (we should) hedge against an uncertain future,’ Nicholas Szechenyi of the Center for Strategic and International Studies says. 戦略的不確定性というのは重要であって、「中国とのエンゲージメントが米国にとって必要であることに疑問はないが、 将来の不確定性については、米国はヘッジを行なう」とシンクタンクCSISのNicholas Szechenyi が言う。
It’s as a hedge that Okinawa remains indispensable to the US and its allies?so much so that the shared international need for the island’s bases must trump any Japanese domestic political calculations. Hatoyama ignored that truth at the expense of his job. The question now is will Kan? 沖縄基地というのは米国と、同盟国である日本にとっての欠く事の出来ない戦略的ヘッジであり、日本の国内政治の思惑 で、その存在をないがしろにすべきものではない。鳩山前首相はこの事実を無視した。管首相はどうであろう?
Japan's new prime minister, Naoto Kan, is edging away from a proposed doubling the sales tax rate, saying that nothing is likely to happen for two or three years. With elections for the Diet's Upper House approaching, that was a prudent move. After former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto in 1997 raised the sales tax only two percentage points to 5%, his party lost the Upper House and he lost his job. A poll by the Asahi newspaper showed that Mr. Kan's approval rating dropped to 50% from 59% after he broached the tax increase idea. The sales tax seems to be the third rail in Japanese politics. 日本の管直人・新首相は、消費税率を倍増するという考えをあらため、今後2−3年は増税はないと言っているのだが、参議 院選挙の迫るなか、その発言(訂正)は用心深い動きといえよう。橋本首相は1997年に消費税を5%に増税し、自民党は参 議院選挙で敗退し橋本氏は辞任した。朝日新聞の世論調査では管首相の消費税増税発言で支持率は59%から50%に 下がっている。消費税というのは、日本の第三の道ということのようだが。
That's not to say, however, that Japan is not in need of a tax reform. Its tax system is regarded as relatively inefficient compared to other industrial nations. That may well have contributed to the country's current economic malaise, with snail-like growth and large government deficits that are sending its national debt up nearly twice the size of its total production, or GDP, a singular achievement for a modern government. The question is, "what kind of tax reform?" Raising taxes of any kind in a nation where tax rates already are high by world standards would not seem like a good approach. 日本の税制の改革が必要でないということではなく、日本のそれは他の先進国に比べて比較的非効率である。日本の財政 はGDPの約2倍の負債がある。問題は、どういう税制改革にすべきか、ということである。世界の標準から見て既に高い税 率にある日本の場合、どんなものであれ増税は良いアプローチとは言えない。
The Japanese tax system today is modeled along U.S. lines. But top personal income tax rates are above the U.S. level. Business income taxes at about 40% are frequently cited as discouraging investment. (Some U.S. states that levy high taxes on business send the combined state-federal rate above that level, but on the whole the U.S. is in second place to Japan in business taxation.) The high business tax rate may well account for some of the inefficiencies in the Japanese tax system, not to mention that of the U.S. 日本の現在の税制は米国をモデルにしているが、高額所得者の所得税率は米国より高く、40%近い法人税の高さも常に 投資を抑制するものと批判されてきた。(米国の一部の州では連邦及び州の税を加算すると法人税が日本を超えるものが あるが、全体としては米国の法人税率は日本につぐものである)
The idea that a sales tax is regressive has been exaggerated, particularly if there are exclusions like food. But the economic impact of any tax increase is not to be underestimated, and if Japan is trying to tax its way out of budget problems it is on the wrong course. That's an argument for going easy on the sales tax increase and heavy on the business tax cut, even to the revolutionary point of abolishing it altogether. 消費税が逆累進性の税というのは言い過ぎであり、食品などを対象外とする方法もある。しかし、どんなものであれ増税の インパクトを軽く見るべきではない。日本政府が予算の赤字を埋めるために増税するというのであれば、それは誤ったコース である。法人税減税と消費税増税というのも(アプローチを誤れば)全てが台無しになる。
Japanese governments haven't been very good at getting things right since the bubble collapsed, which is no doubt why the Japanese finally threw out the LDP and opted for Mr. Kan's Democratic party. If Mr. Kan can't do better there are some new parties germinating in the Japanese political system. He would have been wiser to have stressed the business tax cuts in his opening gambit, rather than a massive sales tax increase. バブル崩壊以降の日本政府の政策には効果のあやしげなものが多く、それが自民党の下野につながった。管首相が税制 のような課題を適切に扱えないのであれば、日本の政界には新党というのが発生してきている。管首相は消費税増税よりは 法人税減税を言う方が賢くあったであろうに。 Mr. Melloan, a former columnist and deputy editor of the Journal editorial
The prospects for passing a financial regulatory reform bill through the Senate were thrown into doubt on Monday, following the death of Democrat Robert Byrd and equivocation from Republican Scott Brown. The loss of just one vote could deny the Obama administration the 60 votes it needs to pass a sweeping overhaul of financial regulation finalised last week, which would impose a $19bn (£12.6bn) levy on Wall Street and force banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to retreat from lucrative businesses 月曜日に民主党の上院議員、Robert Byrd(92歳)が逝去し、さらにマサチューセッツ州選出のScott Brown.上院議員(共和 党)の態度の曖昧化により、金融改革法の上院通過が危うげになってきている。通過に必要な60票に一票を欠けば法案 を却下することになる(後略)
A story of spies and Moscow’s supposed quest for US nuclear and diplomatic secrets was unveiled on Monday when the Department of Justice announced the arrest of 10 alleged Russian agents in the US. Eight of the people are allegedly “deep cover” agents, sent years ago to locations such as Hoboken, New Jersey; Yonkers, New York; and Boston to establish false identities and prise information from US officials and knowledgeable sources. Two other alleged agents used their real names; one alleged agent remains at large. 米国はロシアの核機密、外交機密を探るスパイを摘発し、司法省は10人の逮捕を発表した。ニュージャージー、ボストン、 ニューヨークなどに住むエージェントで、米国の政府職員や関係筋からの情報を得ていた。FBIは数年間の捜査で、この スパイ組織を追跡してきた(後略)
容疑者たちは、司法省、連邦捜査局(Federal Bureau of Investigation、FBI)、 ニューヨーク(New York)州当局による数年がかりの捜査の結果、ニュ-ヨーク、 ニュージャージー(New Jersey)、マサチューセッツ(Massachusetts)、 バージニア(Virginia)の各州で逮捕された。
米司令官更迭タリバンが高笑い What the Taliban Think of McChrystal's Ouster マクリスタルによるオバマ批判は「アメリカ敗北の兆候」とタリバン幹部 2010年06月28日(月)14時53分 ロン・モロー(イスラマバード支局長)、サミ・ユサフザイ(イスラマバード支局)
NEW YORK? A flare-up in investors' fears about global growth hit stocks hard, sparking selling in every sector. The negative tone began overnight with a downward revision of an economic indicator for China and sparked selloffs in Asia and Europe. Investors sought the safety of Treasurys, and the yield of the benchmark 10-year Treasury dropped below 3%. 投資家のグローバル経済の成長に関する懸念が再燃し、広範なセクターで売り越しが起こっている。市場のネガティブな トーンは中国の経済について、カンファレンスボードの出したリーディング・インディケーターの下方修正が引き金になり、 アジアとヨーロッパで売り越しが起きている。投資家は安全な国債に走り、10年もの国債のイールドは3%以下に低下して いる。
Concerns surrounding the end of the European Central Bank's 12-month liquidity facility on Thursday also weighed on European markets and the euro. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 228 points, or 2.2%, to 9911 in recent trading, including declines in all 30 of its blue-chip components. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 3.1%. ECBの行った12ヶ月流動性措置(不孕化措置)の不調も欧州市場トユーロの重しになっている。ダウ平均は228ポイント下げ 9911に、NASDAQは3.1%下落している。
The S&P 500 fell 2.6%, hurt by declines in every sector. The consumer-discretionary, technology, industiral, energy, and basic-materials categories each slid more than 2%. S&P500は2.6%下落し、消費物資セクター、テクノロジー、産業関連、エネルギー、および鉱工業材料セクターなどが2%以上 下落している。
"People are just in a panicky mood right now," said Steve Auth, executive vice president at Federated Global Investment Management. "The economy clearly hit a soft patch around May, and now we need to see whether it's something more." 「人々は今はパニックモードだ」とFederated Global Investment Managementの副社長、Steve Authがいう。「グローバル経済 が弱含む兆候が5月に明確になり、今の時点で我々は、それが更に悪化するかどうかを見ている」(後略) ------------------------------------------- DJIA 9913.76 224.76 2.22% S&P 500 1050.56 24.01 2.23% Nasdaq 2163.77 56.88 2.56%
I’ve had $100,000 burning in my pocket for the last three months and I’d really like to spend it on a worthy cause. So how about this: in the interests of journalistic transparency, and to offer the American public a unique insight in the workings of the Democrat-Media Complex, I’m offering $100,000 for the full “JournoList” archive, source fully protected. Now there’s an offer somebody can’t refuse.
ttp://asia.wsj.com/home-page BREAKING NEWS U.S. to accept help from 12 countries and international groups in dealing with Gulf oil spill. 米国政府はメキシコ湾原油漏出事故に対する、12ヶ国と国際機関の支援を受け入れる計画 WSJ・ブレーキングニュース
A majority of Germans wants to scrap the euro and bring back the old currency, the deutschemark, according to a new poll published on Tuesday. The Ipsos survey showed 51 per cent of people in Europe's top economy wanted their beloved deutschemark back, with 30 per cent wanting to keep the euro. The remainder was undecided. 火曜日に公表されたIPSOS世論調査によれば、ドイツ国民の51%は、ユーロを廃止してマルクに戻る事を望んでいる。 ユーロの継続を希望する国民は30%にすぎない。(残りは、良くわからないとの回答)
Older Germans were keener to return to the deutschemark, with 56 per cent of those over 50 years old saying they wanted the old money back in their pockets. In contrast, only 42 per cent of those between 16 and 29 shared this view. ドイツ人の高齢者世代はマルク回帰への希望が多く、50歳以上のドイツ国民の56%がマルクへの回帰を望んでいる。 此れに比べて、16歳から29歳の世代では42%がマルクへの回帰を望んでいる。
Sentiment in favour of the euro, which replaced the deutschemark as legal tender in 2002, has suffered in traditionally pro-European Germany following an unpopular multi-billion-euro bailout for Greece. The latest Eurobarometer poll published by the European Union in February 2010, before the Greek debt crisis, showed 66 per cent of Germans were in favour of the euro, with only 29 per cent against. ユーロへのドイツ国民のネガティブなセンチメントはギリシャ救済以降に高まってきている。ギリシャ救済以前の2月の欧州の 世論調査では、66%のドイツ国民がユーロ継続を望ましいとしていた。
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Chinese stocks will continue to trend lower in the second half of the year, pressured by tighter lending policies and a gloomy global outlook, according to a leading Hong Kong-based strategist. Andrew Ferris, senior investment strategist for Asia at BNP Paribas, says the sharp sell-off in Shanghai on Tuesday, which saw China stocks skid to a 14-month low, is in line with the overall weakening trend that's been in place since the start of the year. 今年後半の中国株の見通しについて、金融引き締めが進み、グローバル経済の見通しが不透明な中で、上昇の要素を 見つけ難いとBNPパリバ、香港支店のシニア投資ストラテジストのAndrew Ferrisがいう。火曜日の上海市場のシャープな 売り越しにより、中国株は14ヶ月来の安値にある。昨年来の下降傾向がつづいている。
He believes asset prices are likely to remain under pressure until Chinese authorities ease up on their current tightening campaign -- something that won't happen for some time. "They are not going to let go quickly or easily," Ferris said referring to the determination of Chinese authorities to push ahead with recent administrative measures to cool credit growth. 彼は、中国政府が金融緩和に転じるまで、資産価格には下向き圧力があるだろうという。現行の金融引き締めの中で緩和 政策には暫く間がある。「中国政府は簡単には緩和政策に向かわない」という。彼によれば中国政策は融資を抑制する方 向にある(後略)
You may have heard by now that the political website Daily Kos has come out and explained that it believes the polling firm it has used for a while, Research 2000, was faking its data. While it's nice to see a publication come right out and bluntly admit that it had relied on data that it now believes was not legit, what's fascinating if you're a stats geek is how a team of stats geeks figured out there were problems with the data. As any good stats nerd knows, the concept of "randomness" isn't quite as random as some people think, which is why faking randomness almost always leads to tell-tale signs that the data was faked or manipulated. (ry
今どき「ロシア人スパイ」逮捕のなぜ Russian Spy Case: Why Now, and What It's About 米露首脳会談の直後の逮捕劇で憶測を呼ぶロシア・スパイ事件だが、 スパイ集団は核兵器研究の関係者やオバマ政権高官も標的にしていた可能性がある 2010年06月30日(水)16時48分 マーク・ホーゼンボール(ワシントン支局)
Here’s some late Tuesday rating agency hilarity to take the edge off a Wednesday morning: S&P Puts Moody’s Corp. ‘A-1′ Short-Term Rtg On Watch Negative S&PはムーディーズのA−1格付けを、ネガティブのウオッチリストに
By Matt Phillips While its accuracy is sometimes debated by market watchers, the ADP monthly tally of private sector jobs creation usually serves to concentrate minds ahead of the jobs report Friday. Wednesday was no different. The ADP report came in lower than expectations on the street, which thought that survey would show 60,000 private jobs were created during the quarter. Instead ADP coughed up 13,000. Futures moved lower on the news but nothing overly dramatic. ADP雇用統計は市場の予想を下回り、6万人の民間雇用創出との予想に反して、1.3万人の雇用創出にとどまった。
Still, it adds to the sour mood in the markets. “Friday’s expectations for private sector payroll gains are 110k and we’ll see today if the ADP report lowers those estimates. Bottom line, relative to the monthly increase in the labor force that is needed to be absorbed by job growth, we are in the midst of a 3rd straight jobless recovery,” wrote Peter Boockvar, of Miller Tabak, a trading note. Alan Ruskin, head of currency strategy at RBS Global Banking & Markets, added: “Though often not a great predictor of private payrolls, the downside surprise will be seen as taking away from any upside NFP surprise, and is consistent with a labor market that is lethargic at best, moribund at worst.” 金曜日に発表される労務省の雇用統計を前に、ADP統計は市場のムードを好転させない。労務省雇用統計の市場の 予測は11万人の(政府+民間)雇用創出であるが、われわれは雇用回復無き経済回復の途上にあるのかもしれない、 と Miller TabakのPeter Boockvarが顧客むけメモに書いている。RBS Global Banking & Marketsのストラテジストである Alan Ruskinは「ADP雇用統計は屡々、労務省雇用統計の良い指針とは言えないわけだが、今回のような予測を下回る 数字は、金曜日の非農業雇用統計の大きな改善への希望を取り除くもので、現状の良くても不活性の、悪くすれば停滞 ともいうべき雇用市場を反映している」という。
The president, his friends and advisers talk endlessly about the circumstances they inherited as a way of avoiding responsibility for the 18 months for which they are responsible. But they want new stimulus measures?which is convincing evidence that they too recognize that the earlier measures failed. And so the U.S. was odd-man out at the G-20 meeting over the weekend, continuing to call for more government spending in the face of European resistance.
Most of the earlier spending was a very short-term response to long-term problems. One piece financed temporary tax cuts. This was a mistake, and ignores the role of expectations in the economy. オバマ経済振興政策は長期的問題に対する、大変短期的な対応策というべきで、それは失敗のもとである・・・ ・・・ Another large part of the stimulus went to relieve state and local governments of their budget deficits. Transferring a deficit from the state to the federal government changes very little. 別の問題点は、経済刺激策が州や地方政府の赤字補てんに廻っていることである。州の赤字を連邦の赤字に付け替える ことでは事態は改善しない。 ・・・ ・・・ In 1980, I had the privilege of advising Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher to ignore the demands of 360 British economists who made the outrageous claim that Britain would never (yes, never) recover from her decision to reduce government spending during a severe recession. They wanted more spending. She responded with a speech promising to stay with her tight budget. She kept a sustained focus on long-term problems. Expectations about the economy's future improved, and the recovery soon began. 1980年に私はマーガレット・サッチャー首相にアドバイスする立場にいたのだが、英国の360人のエコノミストの要求した 財政支出拡大を無視するように勧めた。英国のエコノミスト達は、サッチャー首相の財政緊縮化のために英国経済は今後 二度と回復しないと言っていた。彼らは支出増大を求めたが、サッチャー首相は緊縮予算を継続すると演説した。首相は 英国経済の長期的(構造的)問題に取り組むことを続けた。経済の将来に対する期待が改善され、回復が始まった。 (後略)
ヘリテージ財団の論説。アメリカで増え続ける不法移民の福祉対策に使われる、州と連邦の予算について解説し その増加傾向は維持可能ではない、と論じていて、ちょっと興味。 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.heritage.org/Research/Factsheets/THE-UNSUSTAINABLE-WELFARE-STATE-Reform-is-Necessary The Unsustainable Welfare State: Reform is Necessary Published on June 30, 2010 アメリカの福祉国家への道は、持続可能ではなく、改革が必要 ヘリテージ財団、30日
A Path to National Bankruptcy Welfare on the Rise The President’s Budget The Collapse of Marriage Amnesty Will Make the Problem Worse(不法移民への市民権を与える恩赦は事態を悪化させる)
Slow the Growth Congress Needs to Act Establish Reasonable Fiscal Constraints
Responsible Reform Promote Personal Responsibility and Work: Loans, Not Grants End the Welfare Marriage Penalty: Limit Low-Skill Immigration
The political impact of this incompetence has only just begun to be felt. While administration operatives are flying high after a week in which the president’s ratings rebounded to 49 percent, per Rasmussen, after his firing of Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the oil is still gushing and the situation is about to worsen.
The obvious fact is that Obama has no executive experience, nor do any of his top advisers. Without a clear mandate from the top, needed efforts to salvage the situation are repeatedly stymied by well-meaning bureaucrats strictly following the letter of their agency policy and federal law. The result, ironically, of their determined efforts to protect the environment has been the greatest environmental disaster in history.
President George Bush’s handling of Hurricane Katrina was a black mark on his administration, and now, there’s bad news for his successor. Nearly six in ten voters nationwide ? 57% ? say President Barack Obama’s handling of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is either the same or worse than Bush’s handling of Katrina. This includes 34% who report Obama’s management of the disaster is comparable and 23% who view it as worse. 37%, however, say he is handling the crisis better than Bush managed Katrina. 6% are unsure.
On April 28, Fitch stripped the Kingdom of Spain of its triple-A rating. Standard & Poor’s followed 30 days later with a downgrade from AA+ to AA, having kicked the Kingdom off its untouchable triple-A pedestal back in January 2009.
Moody’s decision to initiate this review was prompted by (1) the deteriorating (short-term and long-term) economic growth prospects; (2) the challenges the government faces in achieving its fiscal targets; and (3) concerns over the impact of rising funding costs over the medium term. If at the conclusion of the review, Spain’s ratings are lowered, it would most likely be by one, or at most two, notches, according to Moody’s. The rating agency intends to conclude its review within a three-month period.
In the short term, the government’s accelerated fiscal consolidation combined with the higher borrowing costs currently facing the government, consumers, and businesses will likely depress growth. From a longer-term perspective, it will take several years for the economy to adjust to the fallout from the collapse of the real-estate boom, to reduce the high level of private sector indebtedness to levels more in line with other EU countries, and to find new, internal sources of economic growth.
独立行政法人 産業技術総合研究所(以下、産総研) 太陽光発電研究センターは6月29日、 National Renewable Energy Laboratory(米国 国立再生可能エネルギー研究所)と共同で、 集光型太陽光発電システム(以下、CPVシステム)による発電性能の実証実験を開始する ことを発表した。
A visit to DPJ headquarters this week and discussions with top party officials makes it clear that those inside the party still believe in its mission and their ability to create a new Japan. Yet my conversations show equally that the party must do more to turn its vision into reality through concrete policies. The party's new manifesto, issued this month, moves beyond the vaguer pronouncements of the seminal electoral manifesto of last summer, but still lacks the specifics needed to turn aspirations into policy.
ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704103904575337661778908390.html Can Mr. Kan Save Japan? By MICHAEL AUSLIN -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AEIのマイケル・オースリンは、民主党本部まで出かけて、その政策綱領について話をきいいたらしいのだけれど、その 結論は「民主党の計画は、現実の政策というよりは、概念や願望である」。もっと簡単にいえば、政策ではなくてお花畑 の、リリカルなファンタジーである。
AL GORE SEX SCANDAL ACCUSER reveals shocking NEW EVIDENCE ? ONLY to the NATIONAL ENQUIRER in a bombshell world exclusive interview! “AL GORE is a pervert and sexual predator,” declares MOLLY HAGERTY, 54, the massage therapist who told Portland, Ore. police that the ex-VICE President sexually assaulted her. “He’s not what people think he is ? he’s a sick man!” 被害者の出張マッサージ師(54歳)の証言、独占インタビュー
ようつべの再現ビデオ(?) ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJWxpdYJ3Oc&feature=player_embedded Al Gore reeling after sex-crazed poodle allegations (美國前副總統是好色的貴賓狗?) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ *ジョン・エドワーズ前副大統領候補の不倫疑惑も、暴露したのはナショナル・インクアイアラーで、メインストリームメディア は、この手の話題をすべてスルーしている。特にリベラルメディアは、完全に無視する態度を続けていて(ry
7月1日(ブルームバーグ):英HSBCホールディングスなどは1日、6月のHSBC中国製造業購買担当者指数(PMI) が50.4となり、5月の52.7から低下したと発表した。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/asia-stocks-drop-on-poor-china-data-rising-yen-2010-06-30 June 30, 2010, 10:41 p.m. EDT ・ Recommend ・ Post: Asia stocks drop on poor China data, rising yen 中国の6月のPMIの低下はアジア地域の株価を抑え、円を高くさせている マーケットウオッチ
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Disappointing Chinese economic data sent stocks lower across Asia on Wednesday morning, while a rising yen weighed on Japanese exporters despite data showing improving manufacturing sentiment there.
The 8:30 a.m. jobless claims data came in soft and weighed down stock futures briefly. The claims numbers were worse than expected, rising by 13,000 versus the decline of 2,000 economists had predicted. In short, the drum beat of dour economic news continues. 8:30発表の失業申請は市場の予想より悪い数字で、2000人の減少が予想されていたが、13000人増加となった。 金曜日の労務省雇用統計が最も注目される経済データだが、同様に10:00のISMも重要である。先月度は、経済回 復鈍化の懸念にもかかわらずISMは良い数字となっていた市場のISM予測は59で、此れと共に新規需要の数字が 注目される
Stocks are taking a leg down after the June ISM data came in at 56.2 versus the 59 analysts were expecting. Anything above 50 on the index indicates expansion, so this means that the manufacturing sector was still growing in June, but at a slower pace. The closely watched new orders index weakened, falling to 58.5 in June versus 65.7 in May, but again that is still a number that signals expansion. 6月のISMが56.2と発表され、市場の期待していた59よりも悪く、株価が下落した。ISMの数字が50を超えているということは 経済の拡大を示すわけで、製造業セクターは依然として拡大しているけれども、そのスピードが遅くなっている。新規受注の 数字は悪化していて、先月の65.7から58.5に下落した。それでも、依然拡大していることにはなる。
So here’s where we stand. It doesn’t look like a double dip recession is imminent. But at the same time, it may be that the fastest rates of growth during this recovery are behind us. It seems that the binary risk on/risk off reactions we’ve seen in the markets lately doesn’t quite know how to handle the prospects of a slow growth recovery. But alas, it looks like that’s what we’re facing. 経済のダブルディップが避けがたいとは必ずしも見えないが、経済回復過程の成長の早い時期は終わった。遅い速度の経 済回復(の先行き)を、どう評価するかで市場も我々も、測リかねているようにも見える
ttp://www.aei.org/article/102244 President Obama's Detrimental Deadlines By Marc A. Thiessen | Washington Post Tuesday, June 29, 2010 オバマ大統領の、問題の多い「デッドライン」について By Marc A. Thiessen (AEI)
What is it with President Obama and artificial deadlines? First he set a deadline for shutting down Guantanamo by January 2010--yet the detention center remains open and the New York Times reports that the White House has given up on closing it before Obama's term ends. Instead of learning from that experience, Obama set another misguided deadline --this time to begin an American withdrawal from Afghanistan by July 2011. Whether the president realizes it or not, he is going to have to abandon that deadline as well--and the sooner he does so the better. The Guantanamo deadline only cost him some momentary embarrassment; the Afghanistan deadline could cost us a war.
PRINCETON, NJ -- By an average 10 percentage-point margin since March, 45% to 35%, independent registered voters have consistently preferred the Republican to the Democrat when asked which congressional candidate they would vote for in their district. Independents' preference for Republicans has been generally consistent over this time, with the gap in favor of Republicans increasing slightly since March, from 8 to 12 points.
ttp://www.ars.usda.gov/is/pr/2010/100628.htm Molecular Biology Provides Clues to Health Benefits of Olive Oil By Rosalie Marion Bliss June 28, 2010 オリーブ油のフェノール成分が健康増進に効果のある事が分子生物学の研究でわかった 農務省ARS
オリーブ油のフェノール成分に燃焼反応の遺伝子に作用する効果のあることがARSの関与する研究でわかった フェノール成分の多いオリーブ油は、燃焼反応、酸化反応、血液凝固反応に関連するバイオマーカーを減らす効果のある ことが言われてきたが、遺伝子との関連は知られていなかった この研究はスペインのコルドバ大学のFrancisco Perez-JimenezやARSの計算バイオロジスト、Laurence Parnell、USDAの Jean Mayer食餌研究所のジェノミクス研究室、ボストンのタフツ大学の参加によるもの。
For the study, the researchers fed 20 volunteers?who had metabolic syndrome?with two virgin olive oil-based breakfasts one at a time, after a six-week “washout” period. Metabolic syndrome is a prevalent condition often characterized as having a combination of abdominal obesity, high triglycerides, high blood pressure and poor blood sugar control, all of which increase risk for heart disease and diabetes. 調査ではメタボ症状のある20人のボランティアにバージン・オリーブ油を基礎にした二種類の朝食を摂る事を6週間続け たもの。
One of the experimental breakfasts contained virgin olive oil with high-content phenolic compounds (398 parts per million) and the other breakfast contained olive oil with low-content phenolic compounds (70 parts per million). All volunteers consumed the same low-fat, carbohydrate rich “background” diet during both study phases. フェノール成分の多いバージン・オリーブ油とフェノール成分の低いオリーブ油の朝食を比較したもので、ボランティアは 低脂肪、炭水化物の多い食事を続けた。
The researchers tracked the expression of more than 15,000 human genes in blood cells during the after-meal period. The results indicated that 79 genes are turned down and 19 are turned up by the high-phenolic-content olive oil. Many of those genes have been linked to obesity, high blood-fat levels, type 2 diabetes and heart disease. Importantly, several of the turned-down genes are known promoters of inflammation, so those genes may be involved in “cooling off” inflammation that often accompanies metabolic syndrome. 研究者は食事のあとの血液中の15000の遺伝子の状態を調べたが、フェノール成分の多いオリーブ油の場合、79の遺伝 子が低下し、19の遺伝子が活性化した。これらの遺伝子の多くは肥満や血液中高脂肪、タイプ2糖尿病、心臓障害などに 関与している。重要なことに、不活性化した一部遺伝子は燃焼を促進するもので、これら遺伝子はメタボ症状に見られる 燃焼のクーリングオフに関与しているとみられる。(後略)
The dollar is down 1.5 per cent on a trade-weighted basis, its second-biggest dip of the year. Some of the same pressures that impact gold ? slowing growth reflecting decrease inflation pressures, which will hold down any rate increases ? impact the buck. It fell below Y87 against the yen, its lowest since December, before rebounding slightly. It is down 1 per cent against the Japanese currency. 貿易荷重平均でみたドルは他通貨に対して1.5%下落し、今年二番目の下げ幅となった。この一部が金価格に影響し インフレ期待の凋落から価格を低下させた。ドルは一時、対円でY87を割り込み、昨年12月以来の安値となった。 ・・・ ・・・ As a result, the euro is having one of its best days since the market bottom in 2009. Late in the session. It has crossed $1.25 ? a key level of support that, if held for an decent bit of time, could suggest an easing of fears about the eurozone debt crisis. Though perhaps it is false hope ? with huge shorts still outstanding, it is not surprising to see such volatile swings. “The sharpness of the move is likely due to position skew. ... There still aren’t many who are bullish on the euro,” said Win Thin, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. 2009年以来、ユーロにとっては最善の日になったが、ユーロゾーンの負債危機への恐怖が和らいだのかもしれない。 しかしそれは、おそらく、誤った希望であろうと思えて、巨額のユーロショートが依然として存在する状況から、ボラタイル なスイングが起こることは不思議ではない。Brown Brothers Harrimanの通貨ストラテジスト、Win Thinは「ユーロのシャー プな動向は、恐らくポジション・スキューによるもの」という。「ユーロの強気の投資家は依然として多くはない」
>>532 昨日は、金価格、石油価格、コモディティ全般のシャープな安値が見られ、ちょっといつもの状況とは異なるふいんき(ry ゼロヘッジに、これについて、ちょっと過激なコメンタリーが ttp://www.zerohedge.com/article/what-hell-was What The Hell Was That? Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/01/2010 15:16 -0500
Forget stocks, gold, and oil. The story of the day was the EURUSD, and the various trading desks that blew up are a result of the 2.4% move in the pair... What the hell happened there? The confluence of the LTRO termination, today's MRO, end of quarter, the official descent into a double dip for the US, and who knows what else, apparently ended up blowing up one or more players. That, or someone gave Jerome Kerviel direct access to the RBS FX trading desk... well, unlikely, but someone in SocGen is very unhappy with the bank's short EURUSD positions. Note how every pair had a mind of its own today. The last time this happened was September 16, 2008. Also, as much as we love him, we can't help but feel for F/X Concepts John Taylor (if only for the ultra short-term; he will most certainly be proven right as all fiat hits parity with each other at +/- 0).
JOBS: The White House is girding itself for the release of June employment figures, which will show a relative paucity of private sector jobs created. In a way, the impact of this number has been blunted by expectation-setting and headlines that suggest the recovery might be fizzling. There will be a vigorous presidential response designed to show how engaged the president is. Reporters have been given a 12:01 a.m. embargo regarding its contents, but suffice it to say, it's a little like putting lipstick on a ... bad jobs number. 金曜日に発表される労務省の雇用統計の数字が、良くないものである場合に備えて、その対応方法がホワイトハウスで 検討されていて・・・・まあ、いわば(豚ならぬ)悪い数字に、口紅でお化粧するといったものになりそうだが(ry
ttp://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-07-01/obama-immigration-speech-a-conventional-failure-/?cid=hp:exc When a president recites Emma Lazarus in a speech on immigration?and recites not merely a fragment or two but virtually the entire length of "the New Colossus"?one is inclined to conclude that his speech was written by someone who has just graduated from high school and has a young head brimming with social studies. This being President Obama, however, one can conclude that he will have written a fair portion of the speech himself, and, in so concluding, one would be struck forcefully by how banal the speech was. It was, if one can say such a thing, the acme of boilerplate, so utterly conventional was it in its narrative of American immigration.
>speech was written by someone who has just graduated from high school ・・・
WSJブレーキング・ニュース The U.S. Labor Department June jobs report: Nonfarm payrolls drop 125,000 as census jobs end; unemployment rate falls to 9.5%. ttp://asia.wsj.com/home-page 6月の労務省雇用統計は、国勢調査の一時雇用が減って、非農業雇用が12.5万人減少,失業率9.5%
Jobs report came in slightly worse than expected. The headline job loss was 125,000, worse than the 110,000 the market had been expected. And the private-sector job gain was softer than the 110,000 consensus from economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. But the revisions to prior reports were helpful. And the jobless rate fell to 9.5%, from 9.7% in May ? although we’ve got to delve into the details to see if it fell because people were dropping out of the labor force, which wouldn’t be a good sign. 市場予測は11万人減少で、発表は12.5万人減少なので、若干悪い値といえる。但し、先月の数字の修正があって、失業率 は9.5%になった。
What’s really interesting is the reaction of the markets. Despite getting a “worse-than-expected” number. The futures aren’t really doing much of anything. Just wobbling back and forth as traders try to make heads or tails of this and most likely reflects some traders’ expectations of a much worse number. 市場の反応は、予想より悪い値にもかかわらず、先物市場などは大きな変動はない。トレーダーは、もっと悪い値を予想し ていた面があって、小幅な上下を繰り返すとか、そういう反応になっている。
(1)環境庁(EPA)は、原油漏出の清掃にあたる作業の、排出海水への残留原油規制(limited to 15 parts per million) を緩和して、非常時にあたって海水から原油を回収する作業をすすめるべきだ。EPA規制は平常時には適切だが 今回のような大規模汚染では、その規制が原油回収作業を不可能にしている。
(3)上記の二つの規制緩和により、外国の持つ大型の原油回収作業船舶、タンカー等がメキシコ湾の清掃作業に当た ることができる The combination of these two regulations is delaying and may even prevent the world's largest skimmer, the Taiwanese owned "A Whale," from deploying. This 10-story high ship can remove almost as much oil in a day as has been removed in total?roughly 500,000 barrels of oily water per day. The tanker is steaming towards the Gulf, hoping it will receive Coast Guard and EPA approval before it arrives.
Finally there is the most pessimistic explanation?that the oil spill may be viewed as an opportunity, the way White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said back in February 2009, "You never want a serious crisis to go to waste." Many administration supporters are opposed to offshore oil drilling and are already employing the spill as a tool for achieving other goals. The websites of the Sierra Club, Friends of the Earth and Greenpeace, for example, all feature the oil spill as an argument for forbidding any further offshore drilling or for any use of fossil fuels at all. None mention the Jones Act.
To these organizations and perhaps to some in the administration, the oil spill may be a strategic justification in a larger battle.
You don't need a Mensa IQ to figure this one out. Mr. Obama's plan has been to increase spending to new, and what he hopes will be permanent, heights. Then as the public and financial markets begin to fret about deficits and debt, he'll claim that the debt is "unsustainable" and that the only "responsible" policy is to raise taxes. White House officials even talk privately about the galvanizing political benefit of a bond market crisis, which would force panicked Members of Congress to accept a big new value-added tax.
In other words, Democrats have rigged the rules so that merely stopping a tax increase will be scored to increase the deficit. These are the same Democrats who haven't "paid for" trillions of spending in the last four years, but watch them soon denounce Republicans as fiscally irresponsible merely for trying to stop a tax increase. Orwell would love modern Washington. 民主党は、増税計画を阻止するなら財政赤字が拡大する一方だ,と言い募るようにルールを変えてきている。その民主党は 昨年、大幅な政府支出を実行してきた(財政悪化の原因を作ってきた)わけだが、共和党が増税に反対するのであれば 政府財政に対して無責任であると非難する。こういう、ワシントンの現状を、オーウェルは愛することでもあろう。(後略) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 英国の労働党であれ、豪州の労働党であれ、アメリカの民主党であれ、日本の民主党であれ、こういう問題については大変 一貫した共通性があって、「大きな政府、大きな財政支出、大きな財政赤字、大きな増税」といういつものパターンが。そして それ(増税)に反対する野党は「無責任」であるとするのも共通の態度。リベラル・メディアがそれを応援するのも、各国共通。
(2)のグラフについてのコメンタリー Note that particularly in the early stages of a recovery (i.e., the red box covering June 2002 ? August 2003), the data tend to be choppy and any trends short-lived. I expect that the same dynamics are at work in the current environment.
Power, then, has shifted inexorably to the ECB, presumably under substantial influence of the national government finance ministers (ECOFIN), as the ECB directly or indirectly moves to fund the entire banking system and national government. deficits. This is an institutional structure that is fully sustainable financially, with the economic outcome a function the size of the national government. deficits they allow. There has been increasing evidence in the last few weeks or so that suggest that the public deficits across the EU are propping up demand just enough to stop a depression scenario. Growth in Europe though extremely weak is positive, exports are picking up (for now), and there is some evidence that the falling euro will continue to help the external sector.
But the actions of the ECB are neither politically desirable, nor sustainable over the longer term. The conflict will remain the money interests in Europe who put currency strength as a priority, versus the exporters who favor currency weakness. The consensus will be that unions and wages in general must be controlled, which will create ongoing social turmoil. That’s not a great environment, especially in the “new normal” of subpar returns on financial assets.
マーケットのアナリストによる統計数字の分析で、かなり辛口であるけれど、説得力のあるもの。失業率低下の原因 になっている労働市場人口減少について、検証的な計算。更に、労務省の雇用統計でいつも問題になる出生/死亡 率補正について、厳しい見方をしている。 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- メディアに登場する著名エコノミストの、6月雇用統計へのリアクションはWSJがまとめた記事にしていて ttp://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/07/02/economists-react-is-economy-deer-in-headlights-or-roadkill/ WSJ BLOGS Real Time Economics Economic insight and analysis from The Wall Street Journal. Why Did the Unemployment Rate Drop?Local Government Still Shedding Jobs JULY 2, 2010, 10:21 AM ET Economists React: Is Economy Deer in Headlights or Roadkill?
The popular trades at mid-year: to be short US Treasuries, to be long gold and crude oil, and to be short the euro. These trades seemed to be unwinding over the past two days. On Thursday, the ValuTrader Model Portfolio triggered nine buys on weakness to value levels as all sectors become undervalued by more than 10%. New lows for the move were seen for all of the major equity averages, but the S&P 500 held my annual support at 1014.2. My call for the Dow remains “Dow 8,500 Before Dow 11,500” but some stability appears likely for the holiday weekend. Freddie Mac (FRE) 30-Year fixed rate mortgage hits a record low of 4.58%, but it should be lower.
The suit seeks at least $5 million in compensatory damages, plus an unspecified amount of punitive damages against Transocean, BP, Halliburton Energy Services Inc. and Cameron International Corp. and Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. 損害賠償は最低でも $5 million 訴訟対象は BP ハリバートン・エネルギーサービス キャメロン・インターナショナル および リグを建設した 現代重工業 である
『ラリー・キング』終了どうなるCNN What Happens to CNN After Larry King Hangs Up His Crown? 25年続く看板トーク番組が視聴率低迷で打ち切りへ。今後は伝統の「中立性」を捨てて政治色を打ち出すのか 2010年07月05日(月)14時58分 ジョシュア・オルストン(アトランタ支局) http://newsweekjapan.jp/stories/us/2010/07/cnn.php
日本の政治家が消費税増税を唱えることは危険だ。これまで増税を支持した政治家は次の選挙で敗れることが多かった。 参院選を間近に控え、菅直人内閣はこの政治的、そして経済的過ちを犯そうとしているようだ(ry ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704738404575347882182189098.html Tokyo's Latest Tax Blunder Mr. Kan wants to double the burden on Japanese consumers.
Japanese governments raise the national consumption tax at their peril, as those that have done so are often run out of office in the next election. With Upper House elections fast approaching, the Democratic Party-led government of Naoto Kan seems intent on committing this same political?and economic?mistake.